1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,560
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast named vest vetting podcast or radio

2
00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:08,000
Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

3
00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:10,760
Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

4
00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:19,560
Speaker 2: All right, here we go. We're throwing out job spectator.

5
00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:22,360
Speaker 2: We're setting up to cash touchtop.

6
00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,200
Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

7
00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:27,520
Speaker 3: go to Wind.

8
00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:29,000
Speaker 4: That's incredible.

9
00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:32,120
Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

10
00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,680
Speaker 5: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pull,

11
00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:40,040
Speaker 5: and we are underway.

12
00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:46,600
Speaker 3: Welcome to another edition of the Action Network NFL Podcast.

13
00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:49,400
Speaker 3: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your NFL

14
00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:54,920
Speaker 3: Week two vetting preview of joint as always by my

15
00:00:55,160 --> 00:01:01,560
Speaker 3: Action Network co Week and the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky, Stucky,

16
00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:02,000
Speaker 3: what's good?

17
00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:02,840
Speaker 2: How is your Week one?

18
00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:05,560
Speaker 4: It was good, it was profitable, so I can't complain.

19
00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:09,440
Speaker 4: I said this on our College football podcast. Sometimes to

20
00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:11,880
Speaker 4: have like a huge week, you need, you know. The

21
00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:13,720
Speaker 4: difference between like a huge week and a good week,

22
00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:15,720
Speaker 4: or like an average week and a bad week, is

23
00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,640
Speaker 4: just the late touchdowns that either go your way or

24
00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,840
Speaker 4: don't you know. I had the Dolphins who are at

25
00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:24,080
Speaker 4: like the five yard line for a back door and

26
00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:25,920
Speaker 4: you know Parker's out of the game hurt, and they

27
00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,560
Speaker 4: throw a pick. I have the Jets under and Darnold

28
00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,600
Speaker 4: goes eighty five yards in the last minute with a

29
00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,600
Speaker 4: fourth down conversion, a made up pass interference in the

30
00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:37,880
Speaker 4: end zone and then they scored. So those two didn't

31
00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:39,920
Speaker 4: go my way, but it was still a profitable week.

32
00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:41,880
Speaker 4: Those things even out. No complaints.

33
00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:44,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, I understand what you're saying. I think we were

34
00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,360
Speaker 3: just talking off air. Actually went nine to zero in

35
00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:50,720
Speaker 3: the betside tracked on the Island game. So Thursday, Sunday Night,

36
00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:52,680
Speaker 3: Monday Night five and six on the one in four

37
00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,680
Speaker 3: PM slates, and that was with the help of money

38
00:01:55,720 --> 00:02:00,720
Speaker 3: Mitch Mitch Trubisky with the three touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

39
00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:01,720
Speaker 2: Can't complain.

40
00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,760
Speaker 3: We'll get into our Sunday six pack, which is where

41
00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:08,919
Speaker 3: we draft our top six bets of the week, our

42
00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:10,000
Speaker 3: top six sides.

43
00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:11,720
Speaker 2: We'll get into our favorite.

44
00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:16,400
Speaker 3: Total teaser moneyline, underdog parlay, and survivor pick in just

45
00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,480
Speaker 3: a second. But before we kick things off with our

46
00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:24,280
Speaker 3: Thursday night preview, two very quick reminders. Number One, if

47
00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,400
Speaker 3: you plan to bet on the NFL this season and

48
00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:31,480
Speaker 3: haven't downloaded the free Award winning Action Network app.

49
00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:32,280
Speaker 2: What are you doing?

50
00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:36,480
Speaker 3: It's got betting tools analysis for myself, Stucky and the

51
00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:40,000
Speaker 3: whole Action Network team, and it lets you track every

52
00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,560
Speaker 3: bet that you make. And number two, if you want

53
00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,640
Speaker 3: a chance at a free Vegas vacation, don't forget to

54
00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:50,600
Speaker 3: enter the Action Pods Tournament of Champions presented by bet MGM.

55
00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:55,399
Speaker 3: This is the free weekly Yahoo DFS tournament we've debuted

56
00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:59,440
Speaker 3: this season specifically for our podcast listeners, joined by clicking

57
00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,639
Speaker 3: on the link in our episode description. The top ten

58
00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,320
Speaker 3: finishers last week received over one thousand dollars worth of

59
00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:09,520
Speaker 3: Action Network prizes, and the top five punch their ticket

60
00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:13,840
Speaker 3: to the wild Card Weekend Grand Finale, where they'll compete

61
00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,440
Speaker 3: for the grand prize, a Las Vegas trip for two

62
00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:20,480
Speaker 3: valued at over five thousand dollars courtesy of bet mgm,

63
00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:25,880
Speaker 3: the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast. Every week,

64
00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,280
Speaker 3: it's a brand new game, so make sure to enter

65
00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,720
Speaker 3: every week of the NFL regular season for your chance

66
00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,080
Speaker 3: at these awesome prizes. Just click on the link in

67
00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:36,160
Speaker 3: our episode description. And I should point out that we

68
00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:39,440
Speaker 3: had a really good episode of the Fantasy Flex podcast

69
00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:42,880
Speaker 3: on this channel with my guy TJ. Hernandez, and he

70
00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:48,720
Speaker 3: specifically mentioned that the Yahoo DFS platform is excellent for

71
00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:53,120
Speaker 3: people looking to expand their horizons. It's a little bit newer,

72
00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,320
Speaker 3: so not quite as many sharks, a little more competitive there,

73
00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:58,320
Speaker 3: and just a lot of overlay.

74
00:03:57,880 --> 00:03:59,960
Speaker 2: In the tournament. So check out our tournament.

75
00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,720
Speaker 3: But Stuck, let's get into the Thursday night football previews.

76
00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,760
Speaker 6: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

77
00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:11,840
Speaker 6: Let's bet Thursday Night football.

78
00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,680
Speaker 3: So for week two, Thursday Night, we have the Cincinnati

79
00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,799
Speaker 3: Bengals traveling to Cleveland to face off against the Browns.

80
00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,760
Speaker 3: The Browns six point favorites to total forty three and

81
00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:27,520
Speaker 3: a half. And I'm just gonna come right out and

82
00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,480
Speaker 3: ask you, Stuck. You have it at Cleveland minus eight.

83
00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:35,320
Speaker 3: So quite a difference between your number and the consensus

84
00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:37,719
Speaker 3: number in terms of the betting market.

85
00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:39,839
Speaker 2: Why are you so bullish on Cleveland?

86
00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:42,599
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's not as much as I'm bullish on Cleveland

87
00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:47,000
Speaker 4: as I'm really low on Cincinnati. A rookie quarterback, all

88
00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:49,320
Speaker 4: of their new scheme changes early in the season. One

89
00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:52,440
Speaker 4: of the things that I'll mention here is Week two

90
00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:56,120
Speaker 4: is over reaction week, So you know there's a lot

91
00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:59,960
Speaker 4: of trends. If you basically blindly bet all the team

92
00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,080
Speaker 4: that you know, oher to one teams against one and

93
00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,840
Speaker 4: oh teams against the spread over the past fifteen years,

94
00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:07,279
Speaker 4: you would have profited. You know, if you bet teams

95
00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:09,960
Speaker 4: that lost straight up in week one and as week

96
00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:13,400
Speaker 4: two underdogs, they're eighty two, sixty seven and four against

97
00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:15,800
Speaker 4: the spread. It's about fifty five percent. Teams that fail

98
00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:17,920
Speaker 4: to cover by a touchdown or more in week one

99
00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,799
Speaker 4: and are underdogs in week two fifty one to thirty

100
00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:22,960
Speaker 4: five and two against the spread close to sixty percent.

101
00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:25,000
Speaker 4: And if you lost straight up as a favorite in

102
00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,640
Speaker 4: week one and you're an underdog in week two, you're

103
00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:30,640
Speaker 4: thirty seventeen and three about sixty four percent against the spread,

104
00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:32,440
Speaker 4: ten and three if at home. So I just want

105
00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:36,600
Speaker 4: to throw that out there, set that theme about overreactions. Now,

106
00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,320
Speaker 4: the hardest part for me about Week two is knowing

107
00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:44,040
Speaker 4: that there's not to overreact, but also properly reacting and

108
00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,160
Speaker 4: adjusting my power ratings to teams that I you know,

109
00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:48,800
Speaker 4: And it's more art than science because you only have

110
00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:50,760
Speaker 4: a sample size of one game. So for a lot

111
00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:52,240
Speaker 4: of teams, I'll be like I don't want to overreact,

112
00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:53,920
Speaker 4: but some I'll say, I'm going to take a stance

113
00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:55,360
Speaker 4: and I don't think this team is going to be

114
00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,000
Speaker 4: as good or as bats all more aggressively adjusted. I

115
00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,159
Speaker 4: didn't do that here with Cleveland. You know, they move

116
00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:02,760
Speaker 4: the ball. They had a bunch of tournaments, they missed

117
00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:04,720
Speaker 4: a fieldal, they missed an extra point, and it was

118
00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,040
Speaker 4: just a nightmare kind of scenario for them. It's a

119
00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,080
Speaker 4: brand new scheme, brand new staff, and then you're going

120
00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:13,000
Speaker 4: to Baltimore to play this powerhouse with all this continuity.

121
00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,560
Speaker 4: So I don't take too much from it. Over the

122
00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,640
Speaker 4: next couple of weeks, we'll start to really learn where

123
00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:20,680
Speaker 4: this is going to go with Cleveland. There's also a

124
00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,800
Speaker 4: ton of injuries on that side of the ball. And

125
00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:26,600
Speaker 4: then you know, this is an ideal you would think

126
00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:28,719
Speaker 4: on paper, an ideal spot for them. They're playing a

127
00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:32,559
Speaker 4: rookie quarterback on a short week. Rookie quarterbacks in weeks

128
00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:35,520
Speaker 4: one through eight over the past fifteen years playing on

129
00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,000
Speaker 4: a Thursday night on a short week, or one in

130
00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:43,080
Speaker 4: six with one touchdown and ten picks averaging about five

131
00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:46,760
Speaker 4: yards per attempt. There are some scrubs on that list,

132
00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,560
Speaker 4: but there's also Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson. There's been no

133
00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:52,919
Speaker 4: success in this spot. It's a short week, it's a

134
00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:56,400
Speaker 4: new offense, there's been no preseason. The offensive line is

135
00:06:56,440 --> 00:07:00,240
Speaker 4: a disaster. Their starting guard is out now you know,

136
00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:02,679
Speaker 4: Bobby Hart is just a train wreck at right tackle.

137
00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:04,760
Speaker 4: Joean and Williams still need some work at left tackle.

138
00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:06,280
Speaker 4: So I think the Browns will be able to get

139
00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:09,360
Speaker 4: some pressure. And on the other side of the ball,

140
00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:11,640
Speaker 4: the Browns also have a ton of injuries for its

141
00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,600
Speaker 4: four offensive four offensive linemen or on the injury report

142
00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:19,000
Speaker 4: you have Landry who may not play. It's just littered.

143
00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:21,200
Speaker 4: But I'll take the experience Browns here. I think we'll

144
00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:23,320
Speaker 4: be able to run the ball against the Bengals, and

145
00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:25,080
Speaker 4: I think that they'll be able to get to Burrow. Look,

146
00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:29,080
Speaker 4: Burrow showed some poison times, but he was under fire

147
00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:32,200
Speaker 4: the entire game, and they have talent at receiver. If

148
00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:34,040
Speaker 4: they were to spread out the Browns, who are basically

149
00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,720
Speaker 4: just down to ward at that corner as a healthy corner,

150
00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,440
Speaker 4: they could maybe have some success. If Burrow actually could

151
00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,560
Speaker 4: get time to throw it. I think he was getting

152
00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:45,440
Speaker 4: He got an average of two point two seconds last

153
00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:47,520
Speaker 4: week per pass attempt, and you can see by the

154
00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:49,040
Speaker 4: yards he threw for it to throw, so he really

155
00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:52,280
Speaker 4: couldn't throw it downfield. Very conservative game plan. I think

156
00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:54,559
Speaker 4: that's what they'll have again this week on a short week.

157
00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,160
Speaker 4: I think with the questions on the brown side, they're

158
00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,480
Speaker 4: also going to rely on a very run heavy attack

159
00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:02,960
Speaker 4: if the offense. Both tackles are questionable and haven't been practicing.

160
00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,240
Speaker 4: Their center also, and Mayfield needs that, so if their

161
00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:08,960
Speaker 4: offensive lines out, Landry's out, they're gonna go run heavy too.

162
00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,440
Speaker 4: I think they'll have success running against Cincy. So what

163
00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:13,680
Speaker 4: I think this boils down to is short week. It's

164
00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,000
Speaker 4: gonna favorite Cleveland here. I'm really low on the Bengals

165
00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:20,200
Speaker 4: early in the season, especially going on the road in

166
00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:23,200
Speaker 4: a short week. That's why I make it eight. The

167
00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,880
Speaker 4: injuries are worrisome for Cleveland, but I laid five and

168
00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:29,000
Speaker 4: a half when it was out there. I'd lay anything

169
00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:32,240
Speaker 4: under seven. I also took an under for the game

170
00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:34,960
Speaker 4: and under first half under forty three and a half

171
00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:37,080
Speaker 4: for the game. Forty three is kind of a key number,

172
00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:38,920
Speaker 4: and that's what it's at right now at bet MGM.

173
00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:40,959
Speaker 4: Cleveland right now is minus six at bet MGM. I

174
00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,800
Speaker 4: would play that as well, and then some under first

175
00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:46,320
Speaker 4: half twenty one. So I think it's a lower scoring

176
00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,440
Speaker 4: divisional game. Both teams don't want to start zero and two,

177
00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:54,119
Speaker 4: some kicker issues as well. Offensive lines might get dominated

178
00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:57,320
Speaker 4: on both sides, so I think the Browns win, you know,

179
00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:01,040
Speaker 4: a lower scoring game and kind of protected if it's

180
00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:03,040
Speaker 4: really low scoring with this under, where it might be

181
00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,560
Speaker 4: more difficult to cover the five and a half or six.

182
00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:09,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, home favorites on Thursday Night football, we point this

183
00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:11,680
Speaker 3: out pretty much every week, but it's really tough on

184
00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,280
Speaker 3: a short week for the for the underdog, especially when

185
00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,320
Speaker 3: they're the inferior team. So home favorites are seventy four

186
00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:21,480
Speaker 3: fifty and four against the spread since two thousand and three.

187
00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:26,320
Speaker 3: That's a sixty percent cover rate. I have this game

188
00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:30,480
Speaker 3: power rated at Cleveland minus six and a half, so

189
00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:33,640
Speaker 3: not quite as boeish as you, but pretty much in

190
00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:36,880
Speaker 3: line with the market, and definitely you know, the market's

191
00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:41,240
Speaker 3: at six, so I'm weaning toward Cleveland as well. I

192
00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,760
Speaker 3: bet the under for this game when it first came out,

193
00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:47,920
Speaker 3: and it was at forty six, which opened just way

194
00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:51,079
Speaker 3: too high, so not surprised that it dropped to forty three.

195
00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,080
Speaker 2: I think, you know, for forty three and.

196
00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,080
Speaker 3: A half, I think that's kind of where I was

197
00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:57,320
Speaker 3: thinking it should be, you know, more of a forty

198
00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,720
Speaker 3: three game, which is a key number, than a forty six,

199
00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:01,280
Speaker 3: a forty seven type of game.

200
00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:04,440
Speaker 2: So I'm with you on the under as well.

201
00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:06,800
Speaker 3: I would bet that down to forty three and a

202
00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:10,640
Speaker 3: half where it's at right now. But you know, Cleveland

203
00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,280
Speaker 3: worries me a little bit just because I think the

204
00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:15,760
Speaker 3: Bengals may have the better quarterback of this game. But

205
00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,120
Speaker 3: I'm with you on the under because I don't think

206
00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:20,880
Speaker 3: Cincinnati is going to be a disaster defense. I think

207
00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:22,920
Speaker 3: they're more you know, they'll have some struggles here and

208
00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,440
Speaker 3: there against the better teams, but yeah, this should be

209
00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:28,560
Speaker 3: a low scoring kind of slug fest. Gino Atkins and

210
00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,240
Speaker 3: Mike Daniels out for Cincinnati, I think that really hurts

211
00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:33,760
Speaker 3: against Nick Chubb. And I don't know about you, but

212
00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:36,679
Speaker 3: I'm kind of expecting a feed Nick Chubb game from Stefanski.

213
00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:38,440
Speaker 3: You know, I think he had six carries in the

214
00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:41,400
Speaker 3: first half. He was pretty effective, as he always is,

215
00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:44,400
Speaker 3: so I think this one close to the best feed

216
00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,280
Speaker 3: Nick Chubb against the defense that's weakened on the interior

217
00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:50,439
Speaker 3: should get him to win and should be a low

218
00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:50,920
Speaker 3: scoring game.

219
00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:52,920
Speaker 4: I think the Browns could have done, but it would

220
00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,199
Speaker 4: have surprised me if they messed it all up in

221
00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:57,600
Speaker 4: typical Cleveland fashion. Absolutely not.

222
00:10:58,080 --> 00:10:59,200
Speaker 2: I will say this, Cleveland.

223
00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:02,800
Speaker 3: I was pleasantly surprised by how well they held up

224
00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:06,319
Speaker 3: in run defense against Baltimore. You know, Baltimore obviously one

225
00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:08,360
Speaker 3: of the better run teams in the league, especially once

226
00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:10,760
Speaker 3: you're adding Lamar Jackson, and they gave up only one

227
00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:13,680
Speaker 3: hundred and seven yards on thirty carries from the Ravens.

228
00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:15,200
Speaker 2: So that's a positive.

229
00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,440
Speaker 3: And if Joe Burrow doesn't have that working for him,

230
00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:19,160
Speaker 3: it's gonna be really tough.

231
00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:19,880
Speaker 2: All right.

232
00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,120
Speaker 3: Next up, Stucky and I will each give you our

233
00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:23,560
Speaker 3: three favorite bets.

234
00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:25,760
Speaker 2: Of the week in the six pack. But first, here's

235
00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:27,200
Speaker 2: our coaches pep talk.

236
00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:30,320
Speaker 3: This week's pep talk is the one we used last

237
00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:32,880
Speaker 3: season for the same team, the Cleveland Browns, and it

238
00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,800
Speaker 3: comes courtesy of coach Pete Bell from the nineteen ninety

239
00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:39,400
Speaker 3: four film Blue Chips, and we're dedicating it to the

240
00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:40,679
Speaker 3: Cleveland Browns.

241
00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:42,880
Speaker 2: You keep playing the way you're playing. We're gonna get

242
00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:46,600
Speaker 2: an ass speed again to nine and it stopped right now.

243
00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,880
Speaker 2: All right, let's do it. Let's crack open the Sunday six.

244
00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:58,200
Speaker 6: Pack Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

245
00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:01,720
Speaker 2: All right, stuck.

246
00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:04,840
Speaker 3: So we have our little weekly six pack competition. Of course,

247
00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:06,440
Speaker 3: we draft our three favorite sides.

248
00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:07,840
Speaker 2: Each first pick is.

249
00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:09,600
Speaker 3: Worth two points, others are worth one, and then our

250
00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,560
Speaker 3: favorite total, which is the next segment worth one as well.

251
00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:16,400
Speaker 3: My Bills took care of business. The Bears got an

252
00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:19,880
Speaker 3: assist there from the Wayans defense, so I got three.

253
00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,840
Speaker 3: Your Dolphins let us down. Of course, ultimately you came

254
00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,599
Speaker 3: through with your other two picks. Both of our totals

255
00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,439
Speaker 3: went over when we had under so three to two

256
00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:33,600
Speaker 3: after week one, early lead for me, you're up first.

257
00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:35,800
Speaker 2: Where you're going with your first pick? All right?

258
00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:40,040
Speaker 4: My first pick in the Sunday six pack is the

259
00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:44,400
Speaker 4: New York Football Giants. They are currently plus five and

260
00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:47,960
Speaker 4: a half at the MGM. I make this a tad

261
00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:52,760
Speaker 4: under four, so I have the Bears minus three point

262
00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:59,160
Speaker 4: eight ish points. Look, you can talk about over reactions

263
00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:01,079
Speaker 4: to Bear. I mean, the Bears fans were jumping off

264
00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:04,000
Speaker 4: of a cliff jumping off of bridges. Three quarters through

265
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,840
Speaker 4: that game, they're down twenty three to six and they

266
00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:08,920
Speaker 4: come all the way back. Why did they come back? Well,

267
00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:11,160
Speaker 4: first you have Jamie Collins who got suspended for hitting

268
00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,000
Speaker 4: a ref and then the Lions were down all three

269
00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,719
Speaker 4: starting corners in the fourth quarter. So you wonder why

270
00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:18,360
Speaker 4: Mitch Trubisky and the only team he ever plays good

271
00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:21,200
Speaker 4: against the Lions, he actually wasn't playing well for the

272
00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:23,839
Speaker 4: first three quarters. You had Akuda their first one, Drappick

273
00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:27,120
Speaker 4: didn't suit up. You had Justin Coleman, who's their good slot,

274
00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,000
Speaker 4: he went down with the hamstring injuries. Now in ir

275
00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:30,840
Speaker 4: and you had True Funk got down with a hamstring injury.

276
00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,400
Speaker 4: You had Dar robertson there who was who he even

277
00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:36,040
Speaker 4: got banged up. So I mean, just a complete fluke.

278
00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:38,120
Speaker 4: And then the Bears get, you know, a tip pick.

279
00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:41,079
Speaker 4: They get all the Lions corners to go out with injuries,

280
00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:44,679
Speaker 4: and they still need DeAndre Swift to drop a wide

281
00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:48,120
Speaker 4: open touchdown pass in the end zone. I mean, come on,

282
00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:50,440
Speaker 4: nothing changed for me and that Bears gat they were

283
00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,199
Speaker 4: getting blown out into all the injuries and flukes in

284
00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:55,440
Speaker 4: the fourth quarter, is still a bad team. It's still

285
00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:58,480
Speaker 4: Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. It's still a team that has

286
00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:02,800
Speaker 4: a bad offensive line, a no running game, an overrated defense,

287
00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:04,440
Speaker 4: all the things that I thought coming into the year.

288
00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:06,880
Speaker 4: On the other side, they're taking on a Giants team

289
00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,520
Speaker 4: that look it looked ugly and I know it's a

290
00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,480
Speaker 4: short week, which but it's it's still early in the year.

291
00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:16,440
Speaker 4: The offensive line for the Giants, it is a problem,

292
00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:20,080
Speaker 4: but they actually held up better than I thought going

293
00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:23,360
Speaker 4: up against arguably the best defensive line in the NFL.

294
00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:25,800
Speaker 4: This is a defensive line that was number one in

295
00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,600
Speaker 4: pressure last year, number two in EPA against the run,

296
00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,480
Speaker 4: just the dominant defensive line. You're starting a bunch of

297
00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,560
Speaker 4: new guys who've never played together, a rookie left tackle,

298
00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:37,520
Speaker 4: and they held up fairly well. I mean, Daniel Jones

299
00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:39,640
Speaker 4: that long drive, he doesn't throw that ass nine pass.

300
00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:43,360
Speaker 4: They're right in that game in the second half after

301
00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:44,720
Speaker 4: like a fourteen minute drive.

302
00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:53,840
Speaker 1: Let's hear it for Danny Dives.

303
00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:59,360
Speaker 4: The corners still have issues, but that's not something Mitch

304
00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:02,720
Speaker 4: Trbussy's really going to explode. You're going from Ben Roethlisberger

305
00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:06,800
Speaker 4: and those Pittsburgh receivers to Chicago. It's gonna be a

306
00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,920
Speaker 4: breather for both the offensive line and the defensive backs.

307
00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:12,840
Speaker 4: The offensive line run blocking was awful. Evan Ingram didn't

308
00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,160
Speaker 4: do anything and he can't block, so that doesn't help

309
00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:17,440
Speaker 4: the run game either. But I just think this line

310
00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,840
Speaker 4: is too high. It's you know, I make it three

311
00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,600
Speaker 4: and a half to four, So give me anything over five.

312
00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:26,160
Speaker 4: You can get six. That's even better. Anytime I can

313
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:30,800
Speaker 4: get a chance to find value while fading Mitch Trubisky

314
00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,640
Speaker 4: aka Mitch Bortles. You know I'm taking it.

315
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:35,560
Speaker 6: You've just been bortled.

316
00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:37,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's why I was gonna take.

317
00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:40,640
Speaker 3: I think this is the best value on the board,

318
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:42,760
Speaker 3: you know, kind of in this dead zone of five

319
00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:43,360
Speaker 3: and a half.

320
00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:45,680
Speaker 2: I don't think the Bears look particularly good.

321
00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,080
Speaker 3: I think the Lions gave them the football game, as

322
00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:50,640
Speaker 3: they tend to do under Matt Patricia, which is something

323
00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,160
Speaker 3: that I've been screaming all off seasons, like you can

324
00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:56,280
Speaker 3: be you can look good on paper, you can improve

325
00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,360
Speaker 3: on paper. But something about that Lion's culture is off

326
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,400
Speaker 3: about Patricia and getting them to play, especially in the

327
00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:04,720
Speaker 3: fourth quarter and closing out games, and I don't know

328
00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:07,120
Speaker 3: what he's doing at halftime. It's off and so yeah,

329
00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:08,880
Speaker 3: not surprised that the Bears were able to kind of

330
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:11,960
Speaker 3: pull it out either. I thought the Giants held up

331
00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:15,000
Speaker 3: as you mentioned quite well in that Pittsburgh game with

332
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:16,520
Speaker 3: and I have a future on Pittsburgh to go to

333
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,200
Speaker 3: the super Bowl. Daniel Jones two horrendous picks if you

334
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:20,760
Speaker 3: ask me, I mean even the other one he threw it.

335
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:22,760
Speaker 3: He threw two picks to what a guys who could

336
00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:24,800
Speaker 3: weigh it combined, like five hundred and fifty to six

337
00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:28,280
Speaker 3: hundred pounds. It's just unacceptable. But the Giants, you look

338
00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,720
Speaker 3: at their weapons on offense, and they're better than Chicago.

339
00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,360
Speaker 3: So in a game like this where I think both

340
00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:36,160
Speaker 3: teams are going to struggle a little bit on the

341
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:39,080
Speaker 3: O line, both teams, you know it's going to come

342
00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,040
Speaker 3: down to a few plays here and there. Darius Slayton,

343
00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:44,760
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones, they have something going here. You know that

344
00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:47,240
Speaker 3: was a guy that didn't know quite whether how much

345
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,080
Speaker 3: do we trust Slayton after last year you know, kind

346
00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:51,760
Speaker 3: of coming on but no one was ever healthy.

347
00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,000
Speaker 2: But it's picked up right where he left off, scoring

348
00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:54,840
Speaker 2: two touchdowns.

349
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,480
Speaker 3: I have this game power rated as Chicago as a

350
00:16:58,520 --> 00:16:59,480
Speaker 3: four point favorite.

351
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:01,320
Speaker 2: So with you about a point and a half. They're

352
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:03,880
Speaker 2: of value and you know, might tweak this.

353
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,080
Speaker 3: If I tweak it, it's probably gonna end up going

354
00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:10,200
Speaker 3: the other way towards the Giants even more so I'm

355
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,359
Speaker 3: with you there. I think that's a really good pick

356
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,440
Speaker 3: to start it off, and I wouldn't be surprised just

357
00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,240
Speaker 3: the Giants outright won this football game. They looked like,

358
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:20,160
Speaker 3: you know, watching both of these teams, the Giants look

359
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:22,120
Speaker 3: like the better team going against a tougher opponent.

360
00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:25,320
Speaker 2: For the number two.

361
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:27,800
Speaker 3: Pick in a Sunday six pack, I'm going with the

362
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:31,720
Speaker 3: Dallas Cowboys as four point favorites at home against the

363
00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:36,560
Speaker 3: Atlanta Falcons. Listen, Dallas going against the Rams on the road.

364
00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:39,440
Speaker 3: That was Rams all day for me. I bet the

365
00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:41,520
Speaker 3: Rams that you know, not even three but two and

366
00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:43,800
Speaker 3: a half when it first opened. I think you had

367
00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:45,879
Speaker 3: the Rams at two and a half on the show

368
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,840
Speaker 3: last week. It was just a situation where Dallas coming

369
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,359
Speaker 3: out with some new pieces on the O line just

370
00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:56,719
Speaker 3: wasn't a great spot for them coming back home against Atlanta,

371
00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,159
Speaker 3: who another team that I've been probably more down on

372
00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,159
Speaker 3: than the consent but this line, you know, I know

373
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:03,560
Speaker 3: Dallas is dealing with some injuries.

374
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:04,960
Speaker 2: They lost the tight end Blake Jarwin.

375
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,680
Speaker 3: They lost Dayton vander esh which is somewhat of a

376
00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:11,120
Speaker 3: big deal, especially with Sean Wee already out. But this

377
00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:13,520
Speaker 3: line is creeping down to where it was I think

378
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 3: seven or six at one point, and it's all the

379
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,200
Speaker 3: way down to four. It'll probably jump around as the

380
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,400
Speaker 3: week progresses, but I think it's an overreaction to Dallas losing.

381
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:23,400
Speaker 3: Atlanta is a team that I'd be a lot more

382
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:27,000
Speaker 3: concerned about. Atlanta actually did close as a favorite. They

383
00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:29,880
Speaker 3: did end up losing, getting blown out, But you look

384
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,360
Speaker 3: at Atlanta's defense, and I think this was the issue

385
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,160
Speaker 3: that I was concerned about, the issue why I thought

386
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 3: they weren't as good they last season. They really picked

387
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 3: it up on defense in the second half. Everyone was

388
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,359
Speaker 3: saying Raheem Morris took over. This defense is better. He

389
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 3: made the adjustments, he found the magic potion. And then

390
00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:49,480
Speaker 3: they come into you know, week one, they're at home,

391
00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 3: they're going against Seattle. You know, they're they're kind of

392
00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:56,440
Speaker 3: a pick their favorite depending on the book thirty one

393
00:18:56,440 --> 00:19:00,480
Speaker 3: of thirty five passing three hundred and twenty two yards,

394
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 3: four touchdowns, no picks, one of the incompletions, one of

395
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 3: the four incompletions they led up on thirty five passes

396
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,800
Speaker 3: was a drop, no picks. Another three for twenty nine

397
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,200
Speaker 3: on the ground from Russ And now you're facing Dak

398
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 3: Prescott with three really good receivers. You know the tight

399
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 3: end is going to be the least influential part of

400
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 3: this Dallas offense. You're going from a team in the

401
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 3: Rams who had Jalen Ramsey, and you know Troy Hill's

402
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,760
Speaker 3: a very underrated corner. They're meeting all these cowboys receivers

403
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,480
Speaker 3: at the ball at the catch point. They're forcing incompletions,

404
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,359
Speaker 3: they're knocking balls away. Just not going to happen with

405
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 3: Ilana's defense. I expect a huge game from Dak. He's

406
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 3: in the running to be the number number one overall

407
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 3: quarterback in Fantasy. Dak Prescott in his career versus sub

408
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,120
Speaker 3: five hundred teams, and the Falcons aren't just zero to one,

409
00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:50,960
Speaker 3: they were seven to nine in the past two years,

410
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,400
Speaker 3: so I feel comfortable calling them a sub five hundred team.

411
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,159
Speaker 3: But Dak against sub five hundred teams in his career

412
00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:00,119
Speaker 3: sixteen and six against the spread seventy three percent and

413
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 3: then dan Quinn and you know, coming off a loss,

414
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 3: which is usually when you find value on a team,

415
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:09,160
Speaker 3: especially like the Falcons, who are very capable of backdoor

416
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 3: covering because of that offense with Julio and Matt Ryan

417
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,679
Speaker 3: after a straight up loss, their fourteen and twenty two

418
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,560
Speaker 3: against the spread in the next game, just a thirty

419
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,840
Speaker 3: nine percent cover rate with dan Quinn at the helm.

420
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 2: Oh wow, you gotta be shitting me.

421
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:27,640
Speaker 3: The Falcons tend to come up small and big spots,

422
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,439
Speaker 3: So fading the Falcons in a line that's creeping you know,

423
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 3: in their you know, in their favor away from Dallas.

424
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 3: I think it's unwarranted. Uh, this is a game that

425
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 3: Dallas can win. The offensive line issues aren't gonna matter

426
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 3: as much, and they still have a pass rush just

427
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 3: enough so that, you know, Matt Ryan, they're gonna put

428
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 3: up yards. But uh, you know, Dallas went to you know,

429
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 3: Dallas went to a five in the red zone, h Atlanta.

430
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:52,919
Speaker 3: I think Dallas is going to hold uh Atlanta out

431
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 3: of the red zone a couple of times, just like

432
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 3: they did the Rams. You know, Julio struggles to score

433
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 3: touchdowns and on the other side of Lanna allowed four

434
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 3: or for red zone to Seattle and Dallas struggled in

435
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:03,880
Speaker 3: the red zone against the Rams.

436
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 2: I think it's going to kind of flip around.

437
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 3: So love Dallas as the slightly over a field goal favorite.

438
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 2: I make this game.

439
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 3: Dallas by five and a half, and that's not even

440
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 3: as aggressive as some people. A corner has it at

441
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:22,679
Speaker 3: six and you have it at six point two, So

442
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 3: you know, I think there's kind of some some consensus

443
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,160
Speaker 3: agreement here that this wine is a little bit too well.

444
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 4: I think the Cowboys are decided here, especially at four.

445
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 4: Obviously since I make it over six. Some of the

446
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 4: injuries are concerning the Atlanta's a tough team to crack.

447
00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 4: I mean, one of the things I was looking for

448
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 4: from their defense this year is the importance of aj

449
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:46,439
Speaker 4: Terrell at corner, and they needed him. They need him

450
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 4: to be really good. They need him to be a

451
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 4: number one corner good for a rookie, and last week

452
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,679
Speaker 4: he lined up on the outside in almost all I

453
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,880
Speaker 4: think like ninety percent of their defensive snaps. He gave

454
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 4: up a completion every time he was targeted. So yeah, well,

455
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 4: he has a lot of work. He has a lot

456
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 4: of work to do now. Now if you look at

457
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 4: the box score, this is why. So the defense is

458
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 4: just not gonna be great. And I actually this would

459
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 4: be one of my overlooks the week. Both teams are

460
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,359
Speaker 4: gonna play relatively fast, They're gonna throw the ball out

461
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 4: and there there should be a lot of yards. Atlanta

462
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 4: put up five hundred yards. They both averaged six point

463
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 4: six yards per play. Atlanta went oh for four on

464
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 4: fourth downs and they failed in the red zone once.

465
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 4: But that's what Atlanta does. They get all these yards

466
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 4: and then they'll have like a fourth and short, they'll

467
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 4: get into the red zone, they can't punch it in.

468
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 4: Then they'll end up going for it and they won't

469
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,160
Speaker 4: get it. So like they have, they just have these

470
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 4: misleading box scores a lot. So yeah, I mean Dallas

471
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 4: is maybe still trying to figure some things out in

472
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 4: their secondary with this new defensive scheme, which could be

473
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:52,640
Speaker 4: a little dangerous against Atlanta's passing attack. But I agree

474
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,119
Speaker 4: with you. I think all the value here is with

475
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 4: Dallas and I would look for it over especially if

476
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 4: you can get a fifty one or lower two.

477
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:00,879
Speaker 3: Things Before we move on to the next pick Number one,

478
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 3: you said Atlanta is a deceiving box score team, and

479
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 3: that's so true. And what does that come down to

480
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 3: a lot of the time coaching, when the coaching is

481
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 3: not there, the numbers and the key spots aren't there,

482
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 3: and usually we talk about regression for those things, but

483
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 3: then you look at those trends like dan Quinn off

484
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 3: a loss just thirty nine percent against the spread in

485
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 3: his next game, and when there's certain teams that that

486
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 3: just doesn't regress when you have what I consider to

487
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:28,440
Speaker 3: be a substandard coaching. And number two, Bill Barnwell of

488
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 3: ESPN made a great point before the season in talking

489
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 3: about the Falcons. He's like, you know, every year Matt

490
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,239
Speaker 3: Ryan has a great, you know, pretty good quarterback rate,

491
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 3: and Matt Ryan and that offense, and every year the

492
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:44,239
Speaker 3: Falcons defense has allowed and even higher quarterback rating than

493
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 3: the Falcons offense has. So the Falcons are a team

494
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 3: that a lot of people are going to probably you know,

495
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 3: bet on more than they should, or they're going to

496
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:55,120
Speaker 3: be a free to bet against because of that offense.

497
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 3: But just remember that their defense has proven to be

498
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 3: even with a supposed defensive head coach in Dan Quinn,

499
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 3: time and time again proven to be even worse, you know,

500
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 3: than that offense is good to the point where it

501
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 3: offsets it.

502
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 4: Okay, for my third pick of the Sunday six pack,

503
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Indianapolis Colts, who are three point

504
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 4: favorites at bet MGM. Look, this is a decision. These

505
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 4: are two teams that lost last week as favorites, that

506
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 4: had playoff aspirations. Right, It's like this is a big

507
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 4: game for both teams, right, and going to zero and

508
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 4: two with losses against you know, there would be two

509
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 4: loss against not great teams to start off the year. Now,

510
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 4: when I look at the Colts, I I still think

511
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 4: they're just a slightly you know, an average so slightly

512
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,679
Speaker 4: above average team. I don't get that worried about what

513
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,400
Speaker 4: I saw last week. They out gained the Jags by

514
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 4: two hundred and twenty yards. They threw for two hundred

515
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 4: and ten more yards. They you know, rivers look serviceable.

516
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 4: They had a couple turnovers, and you know, the Jags

517
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 4: capitalized at home in a home division game. The Vikings

518
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 4: were one of the teams that I was on the

519
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 4: fence about. I said, this can go really south, and

520
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 4: it could go really wrong for Minnesota, especially early, and

521
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 4: for everything that I saw, I downgraded them significantly. I'm

522
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,239
Speaker 4: gonna fade them furiously in the beginning of the year.

523
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 4: And look, they put up a ton of yards average

524
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 4: over eight yards per play, which led the NFL last week.

525
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 4: But they were behind the entire game, and they put

526
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 4: up a bunch of garbage time yards and they were

527
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 4: just chucking it and the Packers were playing soft. The

528
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 4: main problems are on defense. Their defense, you have you

529
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 4: lost Everson Griffin, you had Michael Pierce opt out. Now

530
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 4: you have Danielle Hunter on ir. You having Gokway who

531
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,360
Speaker 4: you signed, who wasn't even playing in the second half.

532
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 4: He's still dealing with an injury. He's still not up

533
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 4: to speed. On the defense, and Zimmer said as much.

534
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 4: It's a complex defense. Their defensive line is just I mean,

535
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 4: this is usually a Zimbers strength. There's nothing there. And

536
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 4: they're gonna go up against the Colts offensive line, which

537
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 4: may be the best in the NFL. So the Colts

538
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 4: are going to control the lot of scrimmage. They're gonna

539
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 4: be able to run the ball. They're just gonna just

540
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,640
Speaker 4: dominate the point of attack. And then that's gonna set

541
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 4: up rivers and they're you know, speedy receivers to get

542
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 4: open against just an abysmal corner group for Minnesota. I

543
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 4: mean last week, the leading snap getter on that Minnesota

544
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 4: defense that corner was Cam Dantzler, their third round pick.

545
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 4: You know, Mike Hughes is playing nickel. He's supposed to

546
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 4: be the guy this year. Holton Hill had a twenty

547
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 4: nine PFF rating, got absolutely shredded. So you know, look,

548
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 4: I know that they were going against Aaron Rodgers, are

549
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 4: going against to Vonta Adams, but the green Bay offense

550
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:44,880
Speaker 4: isn't all of a sudden, the Chiefs. This is pretty

551
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 4: much the same offense as it was last year, right, Like,

552
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,159
Speaker 4: we're not all of a sudden saying green Bay is

553
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 4: the best offense we've ever seen. All of a sudden.

554
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 4: We were saying all off season they didn't do anything

555
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 4: to improve their offense. So and I get Tovonta Adams

556
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 4: one of the best receivers in the NFL, but they

557
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 4: got torched. Their corners were awful. So I think that

558
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 4: the Colts are gonna be able to move the ball.

559
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 4: They're going to go to run the ball. It's gonna

560
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 4: set up play action. They're gonna be heavy eleven personnel

561
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 4: and the Vikings just don't have corners right now. Maybe

562
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 4: you know Danceler and and their first round draft pick Glad.

563
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 4: He can get in there eventually and do something, but

564
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 4: it's gonna take time. The other side of the ball,

565
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 4: I think that the Colts walls have an advantage up

566
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 4: front there front seven versus Minnesota offensive line that still

567
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 4: just has a lot of questions. I said this before

568
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 4: the year, I said Xavier Roads is done, and if

569
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 4: you looked at last week, yeah, he's done. He gave

570
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 4: up a pass interference to give a touchdown. I gave

571
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 4: up one hundred and fifty quarterback rating when targeted. They're

572
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 4: gonna be in a lot of zone. They're gonna give

573
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 4: him help. The one thing that gives me hope for

574
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 4: this week is that Xavier Roads practiced against Adam Field

575
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 4: for seven years. Adam Field thanks him for like becoming

576
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 4: the receiver that he became. When there's a receiver and

577
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 4: corner that practiced together for a very long time and

578
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 4: they're very familiar with each other's tendencies, I tend to

579
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 4: give the edge when they face each other to the corner.

580
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 4: But I just think the battle in the trenches is

581
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 4: going to go all the Colts way. I think those

582
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 4: Vikings teams in trouble. I'm looking to fade them early,

583
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:14,400
Speaker 4: so I downgraded them significantly. I like anything minus three

584
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 4: or lower. I also have a small play on the

585
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 4: under under forty eight and a half. These two teams.

586
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:22,400
Speaker 4: You know, the Vikings give a million points last week,

587
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 4: but if you look at both teams their pace, they

588
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 4: were both slow and they both just want to run

589
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,199
Speaker 4: the ball. And now they're both on and one. You

590
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,400
Speaker 4: can expect heavy rush game plans from both teams. Rivers

591
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 4: always go slow. He's going to snap the ball one

592
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 4: second on the play clock. And they were really slow

593
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 4: last week, even though they put up, you know, a

594
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 4: decent amount of yards. So I like the under small.

595
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 4: But for my second pick in the six pack, give

596
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 4: me the Colts minus three. Not that worried about the Colts.

597
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 4: I still think they are who I thought. They were,

598
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 4: slightly above average team that'll win nine games because of

599
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 4: an easy schedule. But the Vikings. This is more of

600
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 4: a fate of the Vikings, who I am very concerned

601
00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 4: with because of that defense.

602
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 3: I agree with you about everything about the Vice things.

603
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 3: I think we should be concerned about them. I think

604
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 3: they're a totally different team if they don't have a

605
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 3: good defense backing them up, especially Kirk Cousins. But I

606
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 3: am worried about the Colts. But I was worried about

607
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 3: the Colts in the offseason. They were my favorite under

608
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 3: bet for the win totals. A lot of people were

609
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 3: high in them because one reason was they had an

610
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 3: easy schedule. Why because they played the Jaguars twice. Well,

611
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 3: guess who they lost to in Week one, the Jaguars.

612
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 3: Now Here's why I was down on the Coats and

613
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 3: why I continue to be down on the Coats. They're great,

614
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 3: They're great on paper. They're they're decent on paper, they

615
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:35,959
Speaker 3: have good coaching exteents. They have a lot of the

616
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 3: qualities that I look for in a team that's underrated,

617
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 3: like good coaching staff and Frank Right. Great offensive line,

618
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 3: probably the best in the league with Quenton Nelson. But

619
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 3: Philip rivers single handed, we lose his games.

620
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 2: And we saw it.

621
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 3: Again last week, and we've seen it with the Chargers,

622
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 3: and it's become a trend in you know, even like

623
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 3: this team reminds me of a team like the Chargers,

624
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 3: a team that I foolishly bet on a bunch last

625
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 3: year and just found ways to lose games, And that's

626
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 3: this is going to be the team that anytime you're

627
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 3: betting on them and be like, hey, man, like it's

628
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 3: probably a stay away from me, but like, just be

629
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 3: careful with this team, because everything could look right on

630
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 3: paper and Philip Rivers could single handed we lose the game.

631
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 3: But I do think that there are some there were

632
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 3: some other signs that we should kind of be kind

633
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 3: of a little bit more concerned about the or concern

634
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 3: about the coach a little more than just Okay, they

635
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 3: had some turnovers. Yes, they threw for three hundred and

636
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 3: sixty three yards, but you look at the defense on paper,

637
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 3: it doesn't look that bad when you look at the

638
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 3: royal yardage numbers one hundred and seventy three yards passing,

639
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 3: ninety one yards rushing, right, But then you realize Gardner

640
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 3: Minshew went nineteen of twenty with three touchdown passes and

641
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 3: zero interceptions. They allowed one incompletion on twenty attempts with

642
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 3: three touchdowns to Gardner Minshew. So I'm concerned from my

643
00:30:57,960 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 3: vantage point. The reason that this is more of a

644
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 3: stay for me. I have it rated as Colts minus

645
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 3: one and a half.

646
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 2: Is I think we should.

647
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 3: Be concerned about the Colts whos into the Jags, especially

648
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 3: playing that kind of defense. I just don't know how

649
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 3: concerned because I don't know how good the Packers are.

650
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 2: I don't know how bad the Vikings are. Then you

651
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 2: look at a.

652
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 3: Guy like Kirk Cousins, who this is his time one

653
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 3: PM Eastern Cousins thirty five and nineteen sixty five percent

654
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 3: against the spread, Like Kirk Cousins gets up in the

655
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 3: morning and gets ready for these one PM games. If

656
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 3: they playing defense like this, like, it's not gonna be

657
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 3: it's not gonna be good.

658
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 4: This is more of the fate of the Vikings than

659
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 4: anything you said that the Colts might be a five hundred,

660
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 4: maybe a seven to nineteen. I think the Vikings are

661
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 4: at risk of being a four and twelve team this year.

662
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 3: For the fourth pick in the Sunday six pack, I

663
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 3: am going with the Carolina Panthers plus eight and a

664
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 3: half going to Tampa Bay. And this is just a

665
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 3: situation where it's early in the year and if this

666
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 3: was a week fifteen game, I might have it a

667
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 3: little different. I might not be making this pick, but

668
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 3: we're talking about Week two. I don't think Tampa Bay

669
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 3: is quite situated yet. As far as that offense with

670
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:14,479
Speaker 3: Tom Brady, I think the Panthers are a team that

671
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 3: are gonna still be a little better than we think,

672
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 3: and a team that is gonna play a lot of

673
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 3: one score games. Teddy Bridgewater is not He's kind of

674
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 3: an average quarterback. He's gonna have a low depth to target.

675
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 3: I think the Panthers defense obviously is young and it's

676
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 3: gonna they're gonna make mistakes, but a lot of one

677
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 3: possession games from the Panthers even when they were and

678
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 3: I don't think anyone would say the Panthers are necessarily

679
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 3: any worse than they were last year or gonna be

680
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 3: any worse.

681
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 2: I think at worst is kind of about the same.

682
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 3: They played one score games in six of eleven last year,

683
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 3: and six of their eleven losses were one score week

684
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 3: one another one score loss, so seven of their twelve

685
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 3: losses since the start of last season.

686
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 2: Have been by one score.

687
00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 3: So I like this anything above eight just because I

688
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 3: think that this is going to ultimately be a one

689
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 3: score game. You have the Bucks lining up with more

690
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 3: too tight end than they've been used to, not going

691
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 3: as vertical with Arians as you know, as an Arians

692
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 3: offense would have in the past. You know, that's going

693
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 3: to kind of, I think, keep things a little closer

694
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 3: to the best. Tom Brady was hovering around, you know,

695
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 3: like four or five yards per attempt for a large

696
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 3: part of that New Orleans game before it kind of

697
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 3: evolved into garbage time and he ended with some respectable numbers,

698
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 3: but it wasn't pretty. I think you're going to kind

699
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 3: of see that continue. I think the Bucks are going

700
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 3: to be able to run the ball against the Panthers,

701
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 3: because everyone will. But ultimately I think the Panthers find

702
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 3: a way to stay close. You look at their defense,

703
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 3: fourteen miss tackles. That should regress, You don't. You're not

704
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 3: gonna expect the defense to miss fourteen every single week.

705
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 3: Bridgewater is still even after these straight up loss twenty

706
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 3: eight and eight against the spread, seventy eight percent as

707
00:33:56,600 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 3: a starter, and going back to this one possession thing.

708
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 3: You know, I actually took this at a juice up ten.

709
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 3: You know, it's hovering around nine and a half at

710
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 3: some books. It's down to eight and a half at

711
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 3: bet MGM, the official odds provider of the Action Network

712
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 3: NFL podcast. But you look at nine to ten point

713
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:19,760
Speaker 3: underdogs since twenty fifteen when they moved the extra point back,

714
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 3: and it's forty three fifteen and one seventy four percent

715
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:25,760
Speaker 3: cover rate for those nine to.

716
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 2: Ten point dogs.

717
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 3: And I think a lot of that has to do

718
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 3: with just a lot of times when you're betting on

719
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 3: a game to be more than one possession, especially this

720
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 3: early in the year when we don't know enough.

721
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:39,319
Speaker 2: I don't think it's just really tough, so kind of a.

722
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 3: Value play, a process play, like I do think Tampa

723
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 3: Bay is a better team.

724
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:45,839
Speaker 2: I just think this number is a little too big.

725
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 4: Yeah for me, this is complete state. I mean from

726
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 4: a pure look, just like the Bengals, I have the Panthers,

727
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 4: you know, rated, I basically overweighted all the inexperience and

728
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 4: the coaching changes to the negative early in the season.

729
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 4: But you know, so I make this like ten point

730
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 4: two or something, so under ten would normally show value

731
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 4: on the Bucks. I mean, I'm super low on the Panthers.

732
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:12,760
Speaker 4: I bet them under. It was one of my favorite

733
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 4: win totals of the year. So the Raiders getting that

734
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:18,320
Speaker 4: win was big. But you know, I'm not in a

735
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,320
Speaker 4: rush to bet Tampa right now. With Brady trying to

736
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 4: figure out this offense, it's still going to be a

737
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 4: little work in progress. The offensive line still has some issues.

738
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 4: But you know, I was afraid of some regression on

739
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 4: the defense, but the defense played excellent. Don't be fooled

740
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 4: by the final score against New Orleans. I mean, I

741
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,720
Speaker 4: think New Orleans averaged the second worst, the second fewest

742
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 4: yards per play in the NFL last week, like four

743
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 4: point three. That game was just full of flukes, special teams, mistakes,

744
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 4: penalties on Tampa, Brady picks sixes. Just the defense came

745
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 4: to play. But I'm not betting Carolina and their disastrous defense.

746
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 4: And I worry about all the changes. And they got

747
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 4: to play a Raiders, a non existent Raiders defense last week.

748
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 4: So I don't know, I couldn't real like that offense played.

749
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 4: I don't know what that offense is going to look like,

750
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:11,760
Speaker 4: you know, a new offense playing like a real defense.

751
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 4: You know, the Raiders defense is just it's really bad.

752
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 4: I mean, their corners are so bad. So this is

753
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 4: a stay away for me. I actually like the under.

754
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 4: I played the under a little bit under forty. I

755
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 4: mean the Bucks are playing slow too. They played so

756
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,800
Speaker 4: last week. Brady likes to play slow. Is a great

757
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:28,759
Speaker 4: matchup for so I think the Bucks are trying to

758
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 4: figure some things out on offense, and this is a

759
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 4: great matchup for the Bucks defense. Why because they could

760
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 4: shut down Christian McCaffrey. I'm sure. Maybe Christan McCaffrey is

761
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 4: always a popular fantasy. I don't know. Last year, in

762
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:43,800
Speaker 4: two meetings against the Bucks, who are dominant against the

763
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 4: run in Bowls three four and dominant against rod running

764
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,800
Speaker 4: backs catching the ball in the backfield, McCaffrey had thirty

765
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 4: eight carries in two games for sixty eight yards. He

766
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 4: had six catches for forty two yards, so he basically

767
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,359
Speaker 4: had one hundred total yards in the two games on

768
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 4: forty five touches. So they could take him out of

769
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 4: the game with their defense and then put it on Bridgewater,

770
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:10,239
Speaker 4: you know, two quarterbacks getting used to new systems. So

771
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 4: I kind of like the under. It's a stay away

772
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 4: from a side.

773
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and I'm actually with you on the under.

774
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,399
Speaker 3: I think McCaffrey will fare better just because it's gonna

775
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 3: be a new scheme, and they're gonna look at those

776
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 3: two games and like that's gonna be the number one

777
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 3: kind of focus I think is getting him different looks

778
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 3: with the ball. I think they'll probably throw it to

779
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 3: one more. But kind of another reason, again, this is

780
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 3: a process play.

781
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 2: For me.

782
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 3: I think the number is too big, but you like

783
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:32,879
Speaker 3: the under. That just kind of goes into my point.

784
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,360
Speaker 3: It's always harder to cover a big number in a

785
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 3: low scoring game, so definitely fair points. And this could

786
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 3: go really poorly. The Panthers could get blown out, like

787
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 3: twenty eight to three, but I think it's better than

788
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:47,759
Speaker 3: fifty to fifty that this ends up on one score game.

789
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean something else working Your favorite godwins can

790
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:54,240
Speaker 4: cussion protocol if he doesn't play, that certainly helps your bet.

791
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,320
Speaker 4: All right. For the fifth pick in the Sunday six pack,

792
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 4: I'm actually going to switch it up on you. I

793
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 4: originally had the Jets, which we're gonna talk about in

794
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 4: the next total segment. But at BETMGM net line is

795
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 4: seven right now, and pushes are not win. You just

796
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 4: need to win in this contest, So I do like

797
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 4: the Jets plus seven, but for this contest, I'm gonna

798
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 4: switch it and go back to something that I wouldn't

799
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 4: do at all last year, and I'm going back to

800
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 4: the Cardinals. I didn't bet them on all, and I'm

801
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:26,320
Speaker 4: going back to them this week minus six and a

802
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 4: half at bet MGM. I make this line over seven,

803
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:34,239
Speaker 4: and I like the matchup. Look, don't get fooled by

804
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:39,280
Speaker 4: Washington's win last week over Philadelphia. They were down seventeen

805
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 4: nothing I was on them, came back to win twenty

806
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:44,879
Speaker 4: seven to seventeen. Their defensive line dominated, but that game

807
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 4: was more about the dumpster fire of the Philadelphia Eagles

808
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:53,320
Speaker 4: than anything else. They averaged three point six yards per play.

809
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 4: I mean, their offense did nothing. Their offense basic, Their

810
00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:01,720
Speaker 4: offensive line is awful, and they have one primary threat

811
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 4: on the outside that you're worried about, and Terry McLarin well.

812
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 4: Patrick Peterson's going to shadow him and follow him around,

813
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 4: so it's not going to be easy to get him

814
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 4: the ball. Arizona's offensive line is in much better shape

815
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 4: than the Eagles offensive line was last week. And you

816
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 4: have Kyler Murray and his mobility. Now he seems like

817
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 4: he's also starting to get more comfortable about when to

818
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:21,799
Speaker 4: get rid of it when to throw downfield as you'd

819
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 4: expected a second year, and they just have too many

820
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 4: weapons on the outside, something the Eagles didn't for Washington

821
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 4: to cover. I make this line a little over seven.

822
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 4: I like the matchup. Arizona is a team on the rise.

823
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 4: Give me the Cardinals minus six and a half. Going

824
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 4: back to Cliff, don't let me down, Cliff.

825
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you look.

826
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 3: At our power ratings at actionnetwork dot com, all of

827
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 3: us have it within six and seven and a half.

828
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 3: I'm actually the most bullish on the Cardinals to have

829
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 3: this at seven and a half. In your next at

830
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 3: seven point one. So this is definitely a pick that

831
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 3: I was thinking about as well. But yeah, I like

832
00:39:57,719 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 3: him for all the things you mentioned. I think that

833
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 3: if they can win against a team like San Francisco,

834
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 3: another team that is pretty good at getting pressure with

835
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 3: four you know four and dropping back in the coverage,

836
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 3: you can beat that team, which is because of Kira's mobility.

837
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:15,839
Speaker 3: And oh look, that move for DeAndre wasn't gonna take

838
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 3: much time at all for them to develop chemistry because

839
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,919
Speaker 3: he caught about fourteen balls in week one. So if

840
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 3: that's happening already, you know, I think we saw what

841
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 3: we needed to see out of the Cardinals to give

842
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 3: them that bump into where you know, we thought they

843
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 3: could eventually be. It's just how quick could they get there?

844
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 3: They are probably closer to being there now.

845
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 4: It's a great point because they basically it's such a

846
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 4: great warm up game for that offensive line last week.

847
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 4: And I'm not to say that you played the fort

848
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 4: Nits a warm up for Washington, but just playing that

849
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 4: game last week, it gets a really good defensive line

850
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:53,839
Speaker 4: that's it's going to pay off this week. And you're

851
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 4: basically going from San Fran, who has you know, Washington

852
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 4: San friend maybe right now they have comparable defensive lines.

853
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 4: They're both up the top five in the NFL, but

854
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,280
Speaker 4: sam Fran has a much better back end of its defense.

855
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:08,280
Speaker 4: So you're again you're going up against some elite defensive line,

856
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 4: but you're getting a break on the back end this week.

857
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 7: The NFL season is upon us, and our friends at

858
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:18,720
Speaker 7: BETMGM Sports are offering Action Network podcast listeners a great

859
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 7: sign up offer. Just make your first deposit using the

860
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:25,720
Speaker 7: bonus code Action Pod and receive one hundred percent deposit

861
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:29,240
Speaker 7: match up to five hundred dollars they've got parlay bonus

862
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 7: payouts like betting markets, daily odds boosts, all sorts of

863
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:36,440
Speaker 7: great stuff. So download the betmgm app today or visit

864
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 7: betmgm dot com to sign up and use the code

865
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,880
Speaker 7: Action pod to double your bank role with one hundred

866
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:46,400
Speaker 7: percent deposit match up to five hundred dollars. As a reminder,

867
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 7: you must be twenty one or older and physically located

868
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,760
Speaker 7: in the Great States of Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Nevada,

869
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 7: or West Virginia. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one

870
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:57,720
Speaker 7: eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred in Colorado

871
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 7: and Nevada, one eight hundred gambler in New Jersey, Virginia

872
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:02,720
Speaker 7: or one eight hundred and nine with it in Indiana.

873
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,879
Speaker 7: Promo offer not available in the VAT. And now back

874
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 7: to the show.

875
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:13,160
Speaker 3: For my last pick and the number six pick in

876
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 3: the week two Sunday six pack. I'm going with the

877
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:20,280
Speaker 3: Green Bay Pack as a six point favorite at home

878
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 3: against the Detroit Lions.

879
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 2: And this is one that it could bite me.

880
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,240
Speaker 4: I was shocked he took the Packers as a favorite.

881
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:27,959
Speaker 4: But then I was like, all right, well it's against

882
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 4: Matt Patricias. So maybe.

883
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's kind of it's it's on brand for

884
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 3: me a little bit with him. You know, I get

885
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 3: I get the trends, but this was always the spot

886
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 3: I was going to back the Packers. Matt Patricia don't

887
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 3: really have that much confidence in him. And let's keep

888
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 3: in mind, you know, you're dealing with the Lions team

889
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 3: that now is banged up in the secondary.

890
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 2: You mentioned Coleman.

891
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 3: You know, we'll see about the the other guys, but

892
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 3: this secondary is far from healthy. And so this is

893
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 3: the kind of matchup that that that favors Green Bay

894
00:42:56,239 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 3: because they don't have great receivers outside of DeVante Yatam,

895
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 3: who is amazing, but they do have a quarterback who

896
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 3: can still get it done against bad defenses.

897
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 2: As he showed.

898
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 3: These are the kind of matchups that that Aaron Rodgers

899
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 3: and the Packers are generally going to flourish in. This

900
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,760
Speaker 3: has always been kind of a thing with Matthew Stafford

901
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:17,800
Speaker 3: as well, you know, because you look at Matthew Stafford

902
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 3: and in his career versus winning teams. And again, it's

903
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:24,359
Speaker 3: one week, so Packers are one to oh, but were

904
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:26,319
Speaker 3: they thirteen to three? Last year had about a ten

905
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 3: ten win Pythagoran win total, so feel confident calling them

906
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 3: a winning team. Matthew Stafford against winning teams in his

907
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:37,280
Speaker 3: career is twenty eight forty four and two against the spread.

908
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 2: That is just a thirty nine percent cover rate.

909
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 3: You would have a twenty percent ROI just blindly betting

910
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,240
Speaker 3: against Stafford against the winning team of any record, including

911
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 3: one to zero in his career. Then you look at

912
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 3: Rogers in lambeau Field, and granted, you know Rogers has

913
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 3: there's like a lot of different iterations of Rogers, but

914
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 3: at least we saw that he can be the old

915
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:02,560
Speaker 3: Rogers against defenses, which I still think this is, you know,

916
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 3: if ejections are not you know, injury, I think the

917
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 3: injuries are going to play a factor. But fifty six

918
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 3: and thirty two in his career at lambeau Field with

919
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 3: four pushes, that's a sixty four percent cover rate. Division

920
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:18,440
Speaker 3: home games, he's sixty six percent twenty one and eleven

921
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 3: against the spread. So just the spot where regardless of

922
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 3: what happened in Week one, And I'm kind of actually

923
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 3: upset that that Green Bay won convincingly in Detroit, blew

924
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:29,799
Speaker 3: a lead, because that probably just made the number get worse,

925
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,800
Speaker 3: but I still have it as Packers by six and

926
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:36,040
Speaker 3: a half. So you know anything, I'll take the key

927
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 3: number of six. Wouldn't do it at seven, which I

928
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 3: don't know if the line is going to get there

929
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 3: or go the.

930
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 2: Other way or not.

931
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:43,319
Speaker 3: Usually the public likes the Packers, so I'd imagine it

932
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:46,279
Speaker 3: would go that way, But you know, still like it

933
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 3: at six. I think this is a confident spot to

934
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 3: back the pack Matt Patricia and his boys on the road, Stafford,

935
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 3: they just find ways to lose games. It's it's inexplicable

936
00:44:56,160 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 3: because I like the team. I think I like what

937
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:01,719
Speaker 3: Bevil's doing with Stafford Gallaudey. We'll see about him if

938
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 3: he's gonna go, which would obviously be big for Green

939
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:06,880
Speaker 3: Bay as well. But just don't expect them to go

940
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 3: into Lambeau and be good enough to cover this number

941
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 3: in this spot. If it was later in the year

942
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 3: and the Packers were kind of down on their luck

943
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 3: injuries hurting them, maybe I think I bet the Lions

944
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 3: as big or sizeable dogs against the pack late in

945
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 3: the year last year and it paid off. But early

946
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 3: in the year, healthy Packers. Aaron Rodgers on his game

947
00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 3: going with Green Bay.

948
00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a pure stay away from me. I mean,

949
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 4: I show value on the Lions if this game was

950
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 4: if both of these teams were fully healthy. But I

951
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,280
Speaker 4: can't bet the Lions right now and with all their injuries,

952
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 4: especially in the secondary. If they could potentially be without

953
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 4: all three projected starting corners, A coulda was doing through

954
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 4: some foot drills today. Coleman's on the IR you know,

955
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 4: true Funt didn't practice today. That's I mean, you have

956
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 4: Darryl Roberts and a bunch of scrubs out there, and

957
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:58,839
Speaker 4: Daryl Roberts you can include in that scrub group. That's

958
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:03,720
Speaker 4: not ideal. Goll questionable too. Last year, these two teams

959
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 4: played two close games, ridiculously close games. The Packers won

960
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 4: both by combined four points. The reps game a lot

961
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 4: of help. I'll end with this the Monday night football game.

962
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:14,799
Speaker 4: A lot of lines fans will probably remember that with

963
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 4: just some awful calls. Well, Cleete Blakeman, who some say

964
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 4: is like pasters of Aaron Rodgers in his bedroom, him

965
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:24,879
Speaker 4: and his crew are getting the the Lions Packers game

966
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 4: again this year, Like why would they do that? But

967
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 4: so that might work in your favor. I'll just leave

968
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 4: that at that.

969
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 2: I hope you're.

970
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 5: Enjoying this great action network podcast. I want to make

971
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:35,840
Speaker 5: sure you know about the Locked On podcast network. Locked

972
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:38,439
Speaker 5: on as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

973
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:40,359
Speaker 4: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers.

974
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:42,400
Speaker 2: You are locked out of the Dallas marriage. Came everybody

975
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 2: to the Locked on Lakers podcast.

976
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 4: Let's Go.

977
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 5: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

978
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 5: know your team better than anyone and give you the

979
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:52,920
Speaker 5: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

980
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:58,320
Speaker 5: locked on your favorite team, subscribe to your locked on podcast.

981
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 3: Let's just jump right into our favorite total segment that

982
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 3: was our Sunday six pack. To recap, Stuckey has the

983
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,280
Speaker 3: Giants as five and a half point underdogs against the Bears,

984
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 3: the Colts is three point favorites against the Vikings, and

985
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 3: the Cardinals at six and a half point favorites against

986
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:18,959
Speaker 3: the Washington football team. I have the Cowboys minus four

987
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:22,320
Speaker 3: against the Falcons, the Panthers plus eight and a half

988
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:26,240
Speaker 3: against the Bucks, and the Packers as six point favorites

989
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 3: against the Lions. Now time for our favorite over under plays.

990
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 3: I will just jump right into it. Since you started

991
00:47:33,080 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 3: the six pack. I'm going forty nine ers Jets under

992
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 3: forty two and a half. I would do this down

993
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:40,359
Speaker 3: to forty one and a half. When this came out

994
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 3: it was at forty three and a half, I immediately

995
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 3: bet it. I think a lot of people at our

996
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:48,279
Speaker 3: company did. And that was just off kind of the

997
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 3: game script in itself before even kind of.

998
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 2: Taking into account all these injuries for San Francisco.

999
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:56,400
Speaker 3: So you know, San Francisco, they're still breaking in a

1000
00:47:56,400 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 3: new guard their center Western Richburg is on IR, Deebo

1001
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 3: Samuel's on IR.

1002
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 2: George Kittle has now got to spray me.

1003
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 3: He didn't catch a pass in the second half, I

1004
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 3: believe of last week's game, so he might be he's iffy,

1005
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,800
Speaker 3: could be a decoy even if he goes Iyuk. We

1006
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 3: still don't know about their rookie wide out, Richie James,

1007
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:19,960
Speaker 3: their special teams and overturner and number four.

1008
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 2: Wide out got hurt last game.

1009
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:25,120
Speaker 3: Dante Pettis is a guy you know, and we talk

1010
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:27,920
Speaker 3: about Dante Pettis being in the doghouse of Kyle Shanahan,

1011
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:30,800
Speaker 3: but he was on the field for I think thirty

1012
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:33,000
Speaker 3: plus routes and got targeted once last week. So it's

1013
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 3: not just Shanahan's dog. I was like Garoppolo's not targeting

1014
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 3: him and when he's out there. So all these injuries

1015
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:44,480
Speaker 3: for San Francisco, they're traveling across country early, start, sleepy game.

1016
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 3: They have to play it close to the vest with

1017
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 3: all these injuries, interior line injuries and pass catcher injuries.

1018
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 2: Play it close to the vest.

1019
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 3: The more you throw the running backs and tight ends,

1020
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 3: the lower the you know, yards per target and the

1021
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 3: yards per catch. Get that, the longer drives need to

1022
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:01,239
Speaker 3: be the score. And on the other side, you have

1023
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 3: a Jets team that's just not equipped to force a shootout.

1024
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 3: So you know, for twenty four to seventeen would be

1025
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:10,719
Speaker 3: a forty one point total. That would be San Francisco

1026
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:13,279
Speaker 3: scoring three touchdowns in a field goal and the Jets

1027
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:15,399
Speaker 3: scoring two touchdowns in a field goal, and you would

1028
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 3: still cover if you had forty one and a half.

1029
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:22,480
Speaker 3: That's generous for this type of game. No Le'Veon bell

1030
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:25,239
Speaker 3: for the Jets. They got a like a sixty nine

1031
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 3: yard touchdown from Crowder last week.

1032
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 2: That doesn't happen every week.

1033
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 3: San Francisco got a seventy six yard touchdown for moster

1034
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 3: in the past game last week.

1035
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 2: That doesn't happen every week.

1036
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:36,960
Speaker 3: I mean, this is just to me, like probably my

1037
00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:39,160
Speaker 3: favorite play of the week and still sitting here at

1038
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 3: forty two and a half, So banging the under Jets Niners.

1039
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:46,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, I completely agree. It's why I like the Jets.

1040
00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:48,320
Speaker 4: Paul seven two with such a low total in a

1041
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:50,719
Speaker 4: game I project to go under and like the under,

1042
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:52,720
Speaker 4: and that makes look, I don't want to play the Jets.

1043
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 4: I hate the Jets. I hate everything about them. I've

1044
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:58,200
Speaker 4: under every which way for the season. But the forty

1045
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:00,120
Speaker 4: nine ers are a mess right now on off and

1046
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 4: they can't they have no receivers, they can't really throw

1047
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:04,120
Speaker 4: the ball. They're gonna be running it a ton. They're

1048
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 4: gonna be running into heavy boxes. The Jets, their offensive

1049
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 4: line is not gonna be able to hold up against this,

1050
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:13,319
Speaker 4: said Fred defensive line. So what are the Jets gonna

1051
00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 4: have to do? And they are all the receivers are

1052
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 4: all hurt too, They're gonna I mean, they're gonna have

1053
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 4: to hand the ball to Frank Gore. Who's gonna start

1054
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:21,880
Speaker 4: a running back? I mean, Josh, if they're gonna have

1055
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 4: to do, they have to run the ball and then

1056
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 4: punt it. The forty nine Ers is just gonna run

1057
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 4: the ball the clock it's gonna be going so yeah.

1058
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:29,880
Speaker 4: I mean, and the Jets last week they got that

1059
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:32,239
Speaker 4: six yard touchdown and they scored a bullshit touchdown at

1060
00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 4: the end in garbage time. I like this under, and

1061
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:37,399
Speaker 4: by default I like the Jets at seven. I make

1062
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:40,000
Speaker 4: it six just because of all the sand Friend's issues

1063
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:42,759
Speaker 4: right now and catching a touchdown at home in a

1064
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 4: game that could be you know, fourteen to ten. Would

1065
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 4: it shocked me if it was that seventeen thirteen. No,

1066
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 4: So I like the Jets, and I grew through the

1067
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:54,799
Speaker 4: under for my favorite over under the week. I'm also

1068
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:58,839
Speaker 4: going with an under, and that's in the Chiefs and

1069
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:02,239
Speaker 4: Chargers look. And I said, coming into the year preseason

1070
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 4: podcast previews, all I want is Chargers unders early in

1071
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:09,440
Speaker 4: the year. They're gonna be this team that there's defense,

1072
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 4: is solid, and they're just gonna run the ball. Tyler

1073
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 4: Taylor won't make risky throws. He'll take his shots downfield,

1074
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:17,399
Speaker 4: but he's not gonna pull a river. He's not gonna

1075
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:21,399
Speaker 4: fumble it. He's not gonna throw, you know, an awful pass.

1076
00:51:21,440 --> 00:51:22,840
Speaker 4: Over the middle of the field, and the coverage and

1077
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 4: the tight windows just gonna be a very conservative offense.

1078
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:28,719
Speaker 4: They played a little faster than I thought last week,

1079
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 4: but I think that they're gonna come out this week

1080
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:34,839
Speaker 4: and they're going to try and control the ball, run

1081
00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:37,840
Speaker 4: the clock, keep Mahomes off of the field, which is

1082
00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:39,840
Speaker 4: what you wanna do against Kansas City. So while I

1083
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 4: think this game plan in this style doesn't really it

1084
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:47,480
Speaker 4: really lowers the ceiling of what the Chargers can do

1085
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,920
Speaker 4: this year with Tyler Taylor quarterback, it's actually a decent

1086
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 4: game plan to go up against the Chiefs, and you

1087
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:57,200
Speaker 4: know their defense is very familiar. All right, now, this

1088
00:51:57,280 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 4: is absolutely wild. The Chiefs are twenty seven and two

1089
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:03,680
Speaker 4: in their past twenty nine Division games. Their two losses

1090
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:08,520
Speaker 4: came by a combined two points on miraculous comebacks with

1091
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:10,440
Speaker 4: touchdowns as time expired. One of them was against the

1092
00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:12,200
Speaker 4: Chargers when they went for two at the end. So

1093
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:14,239
Speaker 4: basically they should be twenty nine to zero their past

1094
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:16,080
Speaker 4: twenty nine Division games. But if you look at the

1095
00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 4: games last year against the Chargers, they won one by

1096
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:21,760
Speaker 4: seven and won by ten, and they ended up getting

1097
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:25,440
Speaker 4: six turnovers last year and only turned the ball over twice.

1098
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 4: Rivers basically cost them a couple of games. I mean,

1099
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 4: did Chargers out gain them by one hundred and fifty

1100
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 4: yards in the first game. They outgained them in the

1101
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 4: second game, and they had the ball for about fifteen

1102
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:37,719
Speaker 4: minutes more. They controlled the clock. You can run on

1103
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:39,880
Speaker 4: the Chiefs, which is what I think is going to

1104
00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:41,880
Speaker 4: happen here. Short passes, run the ball and they're just

1105
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 4: not going to get the Rivers turnovers and Mahomes last year,

1106
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 4: and the Chargers defense a little better this year than

1107
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:49,480
Speaker 4: it was last year. They had all those injuries last year.

1108
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:52,360
Speaker 4: They're not as hurt. They still don't have Derwin James,

1109
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:53,919
Speaker 4: but they got some more experience and they're a little

1110
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:56,840
Speaker 4: more healthy. Patrick Mahomes threw for under two hundred yards

1111
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:59,399
Speaker 4: in both games last year, had one touchdown and one

1112
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:02,759
Speaker 4: pick in both games. The Chargers defense does did as

1113
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:04,799
Speaker 4: good of a job as any against the Chiefs. There's

1114
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:06,760
Speaker 4: a lot of familiarity there. They have a good secondary,

1115
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:09,120
Speaker 4: the good pass rush. But I think this just comes

1116
00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 4: down to me wanting the Chargers unders early this year.

1117
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:15,719
Speaker 4: I like their defense. Even without James, It's just gonna

1118
00:53:15,719 --> 00:53:19,439
Speaker 4: be a run heavy, conservative offense, doesn't take risks. They're

1119
00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 4: gonna be able to move the ball against the Chiefs.

1120
00:53:21,400 --> 00:53:23,680
Speaker 4: It's still not an explosive offense. It's not gonna put

1121
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:25,799
Speaker 4: up a ton of points. But I think they're going

1122
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:28,759
Speaker 4: to keep the Chiefs off the field. Maomes will get his,

1123
00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 4: but I think they're going to do enough to keep them,

1124
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:35,040
Speaker 4: you know, around twenty four ish, you know, and if

1125
00:53:35,080 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 4: they get to if they get to thirty one, I'm

1126
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:41,920
Speaker 4: also protected with the Chargers if the Chargers get to

1127
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 4: twenty four with the Chargers spread. But I don't think

1128
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 4: the Chiefs get more than thirty one here. So I'll

1129
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 4: take the under, and I like the Chargers throw them

1130
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 4: in as well over anything over a touchdown.

1131
00:53:53,120 --> 00:53:55,560
Speaker 2: So I'm with you on the on the under.

1132
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 3: I love the under, but I am honestly shocked that

1133
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:02,439
Speaker 3: you are betting against Andy Reid with more than seven

1134
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:07,680
Speaker 3: eight There thirty eight and twenty five sixty percent against

1135
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 3: the spread. Andy Reid on the road with case sixty

1136
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 3: seven percent. He's thirty six and eighteen against the spread

1137
00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:17,840
Speaker 3: in his career, including Philadelphia, He's still sixty one percent.

1138
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:20,720
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes is a favorite. It is sixty three percent,

1139
00:54:21,040 --> 00:54:25,160
Speaker 3: fading the Chargers in LA sixty seven percent, Like you're

1140
00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 3: betting against all the trends.

1141
00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:27,880
Speaker 2: I am honestly shocked.

1142
00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:30,120
Speaker 3: Like I was gonna say, like I love this total

1143
00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:32,719
Speaker 3: because and this might be a hot take, but I

1144
00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised if the chief shut him out. I mean,

1145
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:37,359
Speaker 3: you look what they did to Deshaun Watson and how

1146
00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 3: long it took them to get going. You look at

1147
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:41,920
Speaker 3: Tyrod Taylor who averaged under seven yards in an attempt

1148
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 3: against the Bengals. He ran six times for seven yards,

1149
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 3: so he's not bringing that to the table. I mean,

1150
00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:49,439
Speaker 3: what is this offense really without Tyrod? It's a whole

1151
00:54:49,440 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 3: lot of Ecklers should get his and that I think

1152
00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 3: that will be responsible for, if you.

1153
00:54:53,680 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 2: Know, most of their offense in this game.

1154
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:58,880
Speaker 3: But I'm surprised that you like the Chargers given this much,

1155
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:00,520
Speaker 3: you know, given the trends, like I have it at

1156
00:55:00,520 --> 00:55:02,480
Speaker 3: eight and a half, so I'm in line with the market.

1157
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:05,480
Speaker 3: I don't really show value, but like, gun to my head,

1158
00:55:05,520 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 3: I'm still going to the Chiefs here. Just I mean, you

1159
00:55:07,520 --> 00:55:10,200
Speaker 3: have every anti Chargers trend that like you've put me

1160
00:55:10,280 --> 00:55:13,040
Speaker 3: onto half of these, like going in the and and

1161
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 3: you have the Chiefs division thing, which I didn't even realize,

1162
00:55:15,760 --> 00:55:19,239
Speaker 3: like that, whoof man that's that might have to feel it.

1163
00:55:19,280 --> 00:55:19,880
Speaker 2: But I got it.

1164
00:55:20,200 --> 00:55:23,279
Speaker 4: I can throw I could throw all that out the

1165
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:27,520
Speaker 4: window if if I'm getting over a touchdown in the NFL. So,

1166
00:55:27,719 --> 00:55:30,320
Speaker 4: I mean that's a lot different. And look, last week,

1167
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:32,560
Speaker 4: I don't care what Houston did was just asked. I

1168
00:55:32,600 --> 00:55:34,799
Speaker 4: mean they look, they had a shot at the at

1169
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:36,040
Speaker 4: the end of the half to be in that game

1170
00:55:36,080 --> 00:55:38,800
Speaker 4: with the missed field goal, and they were close for

1171
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:40,480
Speaker 4: a moment and the Chiefs pulled away, and you got

1172
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:42,480
Speaker 4: to kind of be perfect to beat the Chiefs. Well,

1173
00:55:42,480 --> 00:55:45,400
Speaker 4: the two Johnsons only ran the ball sixteen times. The

1174
00:55:45,400 --> 00:55:47,520
Speaker 4: two d Johnson they only run sixteen times. They ran

1175
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:48,400
Speaker 4: out for ninety yards.

1176
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:50,480
Speaker 2: There's more than two Johnson's on the Texans. There's one

1177
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:50,759
Speaker 2: at the.

1178
00:55:50,680 --> 00:55:56,360
Speaker 4: Head composition, and that's well played. So I mean the

1179
00:55:56,440 --> 00:55:58,239
Speaker 4: Chargers are going to run the ball thirty times. And

1180
00:55:58,280 --> 00:56:00,840
Speaker 4: you can run the ball. Johnson had average seven yards

1181
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:02,880
Speaker 4: a pop against Cheez. You can run the ball and

1182
00:56:02,880 --> 00:56:04,600
Speaker 4: the Chiefs the charge are gonna stay committed to it.

1183
00:56:04,960 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 4: And look, I get all the Chiefs trends. I know

1184
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:10,040
Speaker 4: the Raids extra prep and the Chiefs will probably win

1185
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:12,279
Speaker 4: this game, but over a touchdown in the game that

1186
00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:14,400
Speaker 4: I think it's gonna be lower scoring is one of

1187
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:17,279
Speaker 4: the reasons why I have with that high. So I

1188
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 4: wouldn't like the Chargers as much if I thought that

1189
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:22,560
Speaker 4: this game was gonna go over. But with the with

1190
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:24,719
Speaker 4: the game script, it's one of the reasons why I

1191
00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:26,600
Speaker 4: really like the Chargers this week. But maybe you can

1192
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 4: we'll see, well, maybe you can laugh at me.

1193
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:30,880
Speaker 3: As far as the total, like you're you're on it.

1194
00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:33,560
Speaker 3: The Sharks have been on that side. I'm guessing because

1195
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:35,839
Speaker 3: I think it was at over fifty at one point.

1196
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:38,160
Speaker 3: It's down a forty seven and a half. At BETMGM,

1197
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:41,920
Speaker 3: the official odds provider of the Action Network betting podcast.

1198
00:56:42,040 --> 00:56:44,920
Speaker 2: Up next, our favorite teaser of the week.

1199
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:48,880
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1200
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:51,640
Speaker 3: For those not familiar, a teaser is when you combine

1201
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:53,960
Speaker 3: two or more bets and for each bet you get

1202
00:56:54,000 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 3: an extra six points toward the spread. So, for example,

1203
00:56:57,200 --> 00:56:59,600
Speaker 3: if you're teasing an eight point favorite, they become a

1204
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 3: two point point favorite. If you're teasing an eight point underdog,

1205
00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:06,120
Speaker 3: they become a fourteen point underdog. Where you going this

1206
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:08,600
Speaker 3: week with your two team teaser.

1207
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's not a great teaser week as far as

1208
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:14,040
Speaker 4: options the teas through sevens and threes compared to the

1209
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:17,360
Speaker 4: teams that I like. But my favorite one you have

1210
00:57:17,440 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 4: to look out for it at BETMGM. Right now, the

1211
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:23,880
Speaker 4: Titans are eight point favorites and the Eagles are one

1212
00:57:23,920 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 4: and a half point underdogs, which means you can tease

1213
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:28,840
Speaker 4: the Eagles up six point teaser over seven and the

1214
00:57:28,840 --> 00:57:31,880
Speaker 4: Titans down below three. The Jaguars won last week, great,

1215
00:57:31,920 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 4: they got out gained, and I don't I mean, they're

1216
00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:35,840
Speaker 4: still a bad team. The Titans are gonna be able

1217
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:37,800
Speaker 4: to run the ball on their run defense, and that's

1218
00:57:37,800 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 4: gonna set up the play action, which is where Tannelex

1219
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 4: seeds against a really inexperienced defense. There's gonna be some

1220
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:47,520
Speaker 4: broken assignments. They're gonna hit some big plays, that explosive

1221
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:50,560
Speaker 4: offense that you didn't see against Denver and Fangio, who

1222
00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 4: really excels at taken away explosive plays. You'll see that

1223
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 4: this week. Henry will also get his the Eagles. It's

1224
00:57:56,400 --> 00:57:59,200
Speaker 4: just a number play. I hate the Eagles this year.

1225
00:57:59,240 --> 00:58:01,240
Speaker 4: I'm so low on them. I even upgraded the Rams,

1226
00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 4: but I still make the Eagles a small favorite here.

1227
00:58:05,040 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 4: So if I can get them as a dog and

1228
00:58:06,760 --> 00:58:09,160
Speaker 4: I could tease them over seven, you bet I'm including

1229
00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:11,800
Speaker 4: them in the teaser. I know that they could be

1230
00:58:11,800 --> 00:58:15,400
Speaker 4: without their top three defensive ends. It's something to watch,

1231
00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:19,480
Speaker 4: and their offensive line is still a disaster, although Lane

1232
00:58:19,520 --> 00:58:21,880
Speaker 4: Johnson said today is going to play which will really help.

1233
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:24,880
Speaker 4: But I have to tease them over seven here. So

1234
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 4: Eagles and Titans.

1235
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, like the Titans day, they were a lot better

1236
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:31,640
Speaker 3: than than that final score looked as I'm sure you

1237
00:58:31,720 --> 00:58:34,280
Speaker 3: may have heard Steven gotskows he might have missed a

1238
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:37,480
Speaker 3: kicker for so the Eagles make me a little nervous.

1239
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:39,480
Speaker 3: I actually do have the Rams as a favorite, just

1240
00:58:39,520 --> 00:58:41,120
Speaker 3: giving all of the things I saw in Week one

1241
00:58:41,560 --> 00:58:42,400
Speaker 3: and the injuries.

1242
00:58:42,960 --> 00:58:44,720
Speaker 2: But I got the Rams at plus three and a half.

1243
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:46,400
Speaker 2: So I'm not touching this game anymore.

1244
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 3: I'm just going to enjoy my line value and hope

1245
00:58:48,920 --> 00:58:50,520
Speaker 3: that a cash is one way.

1246
00:58:50,760 --> 00:58:51,600
Speaker 2: Or another for me.

1247
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:54,840
Speaker 3: My teacher is going to start with the Kansas City

1248
00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 3: Chiefs mentioned all those trends you hit you you know,

1249
00:58:57,640 --> 00:59:00,480
Speaker 3: made a good counterpoint that it's over a touchdown, well,

1250
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:02,600
Speaker 3: but tease it down to two and a half. You know,

1251
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:05,200
Speaker 3: it's tease it down under a field goal against the Chargers.

1252
00:59:05,200 --> 00:59:07,320
Speaker 3: I think the Chiefs take care of business for all

1253
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:12,080
Speaker 3: the reasons I pointed out earlier and Fade Operation Fade.

1254
00:59:12,080 --> 00:59:16,120
Speaker 3: Denver is on Pittsburgh minus one. There are seven point

1255
00:59:16,160 --> 00:59:18,960
Speaker 3: favorites at bet MGM, the official as provider of the podcast,

1256
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:20,920
Speaker 3: teasing them down to a one point favorite.

1257
00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 2: They should absolutely win this game, Denver.

1258
00:59:23,800 --> 00:59:27,320
Speaker 3: In addition to having questions at the center position, at

1259
00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:31,000
Speaker 3: the tackle positions still banged up in kind of chemistry

1260
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:33,240
Speaker 3: issues with the you know, with the pass catchers. They

1261
00:59:33,240 --> 00:59:35,040
Speaker 3: should get better as the year progresses. I don't know

1262
00:59:35,040 --> 00:59:36,919
Speaker 3: why they didn't target Noah Fan more in the second

1263
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:38,880
Speaker 3: half after we went off for eighty one yards and

1264
00:59:38,920 --> 00:59:41,560
Speaker 3: a touchdown in the first. But beyond that, beyond the

1265
00:59:41,600 --> 00:59:44,280
Speaker 3: second year quarterback and his seventh ever start against a

1266
00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 3: defense that was top three not just against the past

1267
00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:49,280
Speaker 3: but also against the run and you know, completely eliminated

1268
00:59:49,320 --> 00:59:51,640
Speaker 3: the Giants run game and made them one dimensional last week.

1269
00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:55,280
Speaker 3: In addition to all those factors, you now have Vic

1270
00:59:55,320 --> 00:59:59,880
Speaker 3: Fangio doing his best vance josephin Bresh, just this inexplicably

1271
01:00:00,360 --> 01:00:05,040
Speaker 3: boneheaded coaching decisions down a stretch, bad calls on offense

1272
01:00:05,080 --> 01:00:07,320
Speaker 3: being made by I don't know, you know whoever the offense.

1273
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:09,560
Speaker 2: You know, Shermer, you know, yeah, but just on.

1274
01:00:09,440 --> 01:00:11,880
Speaker 3: His watch, I just thought a really poorly coach game

1275
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:15,840
Speaker 3: that the Titans were begging, just begging Denver to win.

1276
01:00:16,320 --> 01:00:17,040
Speaker 2: Now you're going.

1277
01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:19,560
Speaker 3: Against the Steeler team that got the kinks out, you know,

1278
01:00:19,680 --> 01:00:22,160
Speaker 3: use that first half against the Giants to play really

1279
01:00:22,200 --> 01:00:26,200
Speaker 3: poorly and somehow still got it together. Just nothing I

1280
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:29,400
Speaker 3: would want a part of in this game, Like I

1281
01:00:29,440 --> 01:00:31,840
Speaker 3: would even think about betting Pittsburgh got the big number

1282
01:00:32,720 --> 01:00:35,360
Speaker 3: at a touchdown or West in this one, because I'm

1283
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:37,600
Speaker 3: just really well on Denver. Didn't like what I saw

1284
01:00:37,640 --> 01:00:39,840
Speaker 3: out of them and thought they got gifted to be

1285
01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:42,800
Speaker 3: able to be in that game against Tennessee.

1286
01:00:43,360 --> 01:00:46,640
Speaker 4: Well, I don't hate the Cheezer, but especially teasing through

1287
01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:49,280
Speaker 4: seven and three. But I actually I'm on Denver plus

1288
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:52,280
Speaker 4: seven and a half. I'm waiting and a half that

1289
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 4: I'm waiting on to see if Sutton and Hambler play,

1290
01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:59,240
Speaker 4: and I know bu is out, but Oujimudia looked good

1291
01:00:59,240 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 4: in the corner and Memver's defense, they're not going to

1292
01:01:01,840 --> 01:01:03,560
Speaker 4: give up anything deep. It's what they do. And you

1293
01:01:03,560 --> 01:01:06,480
Speaker 4: can see the progression in Fangio's defense, and they didn't

1294
01:01:06,520 --> 01:01:08,760
Speaker 4: last week and they actually shut down Henry did nothing.

1295
01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:12,840
Speaker 4: And the Steelers offensive line is a disaster right now.

1296
01:01:13,040 --> 01:01:16,200
Speaker 4: They're starting right tackles out there, starting guard is out there,

1297
01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:19,440
Speaker 4: backup guard is out. They're signing people off the practice squad,

1298
01:01:20,760 --> 01:01:23,840
Speaker 4: so that could be an issue. You know, there's rookie

1299
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:25,360
Speaker 4: corners for Denver, but I think they're going to keep

1300
01:01:25,360 --> 01:01:28,040
Speaker 4: everything in front of them. I'm hoping some of their

1301
01:01:28,320 --> 01:01:31,320
Speaker 4: receivers come back and play, and Judy doesn't have a

1302
01:01:31,360 --> 01:01:34,200
Speaker 4: bunch of drops. But I make this under seven, so

1303
01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:37,880
Speaker 4: I took over over seven once it got to seven

1304
01:01:37,920 --> 01:01:40,200
Speaker 4: and a half. But I don't mind the teaser.

1305
01:01:40,440 --> 01:01:40,920
Speaker 2: Yeah I have.

1306
01:01:41,080 --> 01:01:43,360
Speaker 3: I have this game power rated at Steelers seven and

1307
01:01:43,360 --> 01:01:46,320
Speaker 3: a half, although I may adjust down to seven if

1308
01:01:47,280 --> 01:01:49,560
Speaker 3: you know, I have to look more at that offensive line,

1309
01:01:49,560 --> 01:01:50,280
Speaker 3: because that's a good point.

1310
01:01:50,320 --> 01:01:53,600
Speaker 2: I saw as Banner go out with the Aco I believe.

1311
01:01:53,320 --> 01:01:56,600
Speaker 4: It was, but I steel Lanner's out, he's done, with

1312
01:01:56,680 --> 01:02:00,680
Speaker 4: Snowski's done. Di Castro is still hurt. So it's like, yeah,

1313
01:02:00,720 --> 01:02:02,840
Speaker 4: it's getting dicey on offensive line.

1314
01:02:02,880 --> 01:02:04,000
Speaker 2: Be careful with the broncos Man.

1315
01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:06,640
Speaker 3: I mean, the Colts are gonna be my official be careful,

1316
01:02:06,680 --> 01:02:08,440
Speaker 3: stucky call of the year.

1317
01:02:08,320 --> 01:02:12,040
Speaker 2: But the broncos Man, I don't know that, Sangio.

1318
01:02:12,160 --> 01:02:13,880
Speaker 4: I want to spread on the Broncos.

1319
01:02:14,320 --> 01:02:16,480
Speaker 3: Hey, you know what's crazy, So mich I bet the

1320
01:02:16,520 --> 01:02:18,360
Speaker 3: line when it was a great line value for the Titans,

1321
01:02:18,520 --> 01:02:21,040
Speaker 3: and you and and and I'm sure most people got

1322
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:23,040
Speaker 3: the got the plus three, which still.

1323
01:02:22,800 --> 01:02:23,760
Speaker 2: Shouldn't have cashed.

1324
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:27,680
Speaker 3: But that's such as the life in uh in in

1325
01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:29,880
Speaker 3: in Titans kicker Land apparently.

1326
01:02:30,240 --> 01:02:32,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, that was that was a roller coaster.

1327
01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:37,240
Speaker 3: But uh that it's time for our money line underdog parlay.

1328
01:02:38,560 --> 01:02:43,480
Speaker 6: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1329
01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:44,960
Speaker 6: money line parlay.

1330
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:47,920
Speaker 2: And Stuck got a hand it to you because you

1331
01:02:47,960 --> 01:02:48,480
Speaker 2: started off the.

1332
01:02:48,480 --> 01:02:52,400
Speaker 3: Year where they bang calling the Washington football team upset.

1333
01:02:52,680 --> 01:02:54,240
Speaker 3: It was not even a contest by the end of

1334
01:02:54,280 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 3: that they one ended up winning by ten. Uh my

1335
01:02:56,640 --> 01:03:00,400
Speaker 3: Dolphins ended up losing. So you you carried us through

1336
01:03:00,440 --> 01:03:04,000
Speaker 3: that through Week one of that aspect, but a great call.

1337
01:03:04,480 --> 01:03:05,320
Speaker 2: Who you got this week?

1338
01:03:06,240 --> 01:03:08,040
Speaker 4: I was gonna go with the Chargers. Is to make

1339
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:10,880
Speaker 4: your eyes pop out of your head. I'm going I'm

1340
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:13,040
Speaker 4: going with I'm going back to your team from last week.

1341
01:03:13,040 --> 01:03:15,560
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Dolphins. I make this line closer

1342
01:03:15,600 --> 01:03:18,600
Speaker 4: to four, and I'm high on on the Bills. I

1343
01:03:18,640 --> 01:03:21,560
Speaker 4: think John Brown might be out. Devonte Parker's he banged up.

1344
01:03:21,600 --> 01:03:23,400
Speaker 4: I don't know. There's some receiver questions. You have to

1345
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:25,600
Speaker 4: look into them both teams, but I think there's value

1346
01:03:25,600 --> 01:03:28,400
Speaker 4: on the Dolphins. Look, there's a lot of new pieces

1347
01:03:28,840 --> 01:03:31,360
Speaker 4: all over this team. They worked out, they were able

1348
01:03:31,360 --> 01:03:33,080
Speaker 4: to work out some of the kinks last week against

1349
01:03:33,080 --> 01:03:36,600
Speaker 4: New England. They got a beneficial touchback, but then they

1350
01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:38,280
Speaker 4: were you know, they were in the game to cover

1351
01:03:38,360 --> 01:03:41,680
Speaker 4: at the end. I just this line's too high. So

1352
01:03:41,720 --> 01:03:44,800
Speaker 4: I'm taking a shot with some fitsmagic on the Dolphins

1353
01:03:45,240 --> 01:03:49,160
Speaker 4: at home. That's basically it. There's nothing, there's nothing genius

1354
01:03:49,200 --> 01:03:52,080
Speaker 4: about this or anything mind blowing analysis.

1355
01:03:52,680 --> 01:03:56,439
Speaker 6: Fits magicic.

1356
01:03:56,560 --> 01:03:57,360
Speaker 4: Give me the Dolphins.

1357
01:03:57,760 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's This was one of the teams on the

1358
01:03:59,680 --> 01:04:03,160
Speaker 3: short as the teams I considered. Didn't pull the trigger

1359
01:04:03,160 --> 01:04:06,680
Speaker 3: because ultimately, you know that Parker injury or if he's

1360
01:04:06,720 --> 01:04:09,040
Speaker 3: banged up in which we just don't know at this point.

1361
01:04:09,840 --> 01:04:12,760
Speaker 3: Is I think it is pretty substantial against this team,

1362
01:04:12,800 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 3: but it's you know, it's a division game, you know,

1363
01:04:15,840 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 3: home game for the Dolphins, So don't hate it. And

1364
01:04:18,200 --> 01:04:19,480
Speaker 3: for me, yea, and this is a tough week I

1365
01:04:19,480 --> 01:04:21,200
Speaker 3: think for me to find money line dogs.

1366
01:04:21,200 --> 01:04:23,280
Speaker 2: So that's another reason I don't hate it at all.

1367
01:04:23,520 --> 01:04:26,080
Speaker 3: For me, I went ended up going with Houston plus

1368
01:04:26,120 --> 01:04:30,040
Speaker 3: two forty against Baltimore. Listen, man, Deshaun Watson, this is

1369
01:04:30,080 --> 01:04:31,400
Speaker 3: purely Deshaun Watson play.

1370
01:04:31,440 --> 01:04:31,680
Speaker 2: You know.

1371
01:04:31,800 --> 01:04:34,720
Speaker 3: There's only a few teams that have quarterbacks that you know,

1372
01:04:34,800 --> 01:04:37,160
Speaker 3: can kind of stand up to Baltimore, and Lamar Jackson

1373
01:04:37,280 --> 01:04:39,480
Speaker 3: is going to be a tough defense all year to

1374
01:04:39,520 --> 01:04:42,360
Speaker 3: play against. We saw them blow out Cleveland, you know,

1375
01:04:42,440 --> 01:04:43,600
Speaker 3: but now they're going on the road.

1376
01:04:43,680 --> 01:04:44,600
Speaker 2: Houston's back home.

1377
01:04:44,680 --> 01:04:46,520
Speaker 3: They got a nice tune up against the team that

1378
01:04:46,760 --> 01:04:49,240
Speaker 3: the only team that may be even more difficult to

1379
01:04:49,280 --> 01:04:52,280
Speaker 3: beat than Baltimore, which is the Kansas City Chiefs. So

1380
01:04:53,240 --> 01:04:55,919
Speaker 3: just kind of I like the timing of this game

1381
01:04:55,960 --> 01:04:59,480
Speaker 3: for Houston. Early in the year, we saw Baltimore slip up.

1382
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 3: Last year, I think it was Week two or three

1383
01:05:01,280 --> 01:05:04,120
Speaker 3: against Cleveland, so you know, Baltimore is not gonna go

1384
01:05:04,200 --> 01:05:06,560
Speaker 3: sixteen to er when I when I look at their schedule,

1385
01:05:06,600 --> 01:05:08,760
Speaker 3: this is one of those games that I think that

1386
01:05:09,000 --> 01:05:13,120
Speaker 3: Baltimore could be somewhat vulnerable. And Deshaun Watson has won

1387
01:05:13,440 --> 01:05:17,120
Speaker 3: nearly half of his games straight up as an underdog

1388
01:05:17,160 --> 01:05:19,680
Speaker 3: over the past couple of years. So you know, this

1389
01:05:19,800 --> 01:05:21,919
Speaker 3: is just kind of a play on early in the year,

1390
01:05:22,040 --> 01:05:26,000
Speaker 3: odd things happened. Baltimore maybe just a little less focused

1391
01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:28,280
Speaker 3: than than we see them for you know, later in

1392
01:05:28,280 --> 01:05:30,720
Speaker 3: the year when it come playoff time. I think Houston

1393
01:05:31,240 --> 01:05:33,040
Speaker 3: is a good enough bet to steal a wins, to

1394
01:05:33,080 --> 01:05:34,240
Speaker 3: throw thro a little bit down.

1395
01:05:34,280 --> 01:05:35,080
Speaker 2: It'll nibble on it.

1396
01:05:36,000 --> 01:05:37,320
Speaker 4: I can't see it. But I mean I make this

1397
01:05:37,400 --> 01:05:40,800
Speaker 4: line just under seven. So I mean from a value perspective, sure,

1398
01:05:40,920 --> 01:05:43,920
Speaker 4: but I mean I just it's a bad matchup for Houston.

1399
01:05:43,960 --> 01:05:46,520
Speaker 4: I mean, last year they played, Baltimore won I think

1400
01:05:46,600 --> 01:05:50,200
Speaker 4: forty one seven. Used to never sniff the red zone. Watson.

1401
01:05:50,240 --> 01:05:53,000
Speaker 4: They just blitzed them all day and we're all over them.

1402
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:54,880
Speaker 4: They think they had one hundred that they got out

1403
01:05:54,880 --> 01:05:57,760
Speaker 4: game by almost three hundred yards. It was bad, but

1404
01:05:58,160 --> 01:06:00,000
Speaker 4: from a value perspective, since I make it a little

1405
01:06:00,040 --> 01:06:04,120
Speaker 4: under seven and you have an elite quarterback, sure donate it.

1406
01:06:04,680 --> 01:06:07,320
Speaker 3: Thinking of the Ravens Texans games, bet MGM has a

1407
01:06:07,320 --> 01:06:10,720
Speaker 3: great sign up all for that one. Starting this Friday,

1408
01:06:10,760 --> 01:06:13,240
Speaker 3: customers can bet one dour and win one hundred and

1409
01:06:13,320 --> 01:06:16,400
Speaker 3: free bets if Baltimore or Houston score a touchdown in

1410
01:06:16,480 --> 01:06:19,080
Speaker 3: the game, Just sign up and make your first bet

1411
01:06:19,160 --> 01:06:22,760
Speaker 3: using bonus code Action one hundred. So download the bet

1412
01:06:22,840 --> 01:06:26,000
Speaker 3: MGM apt today or visit betmdm dot com to sign

1413
01:06:26,080 --> 01:06:28,600
Speaker 3: up and use the code Action one hundred to bet

1414
01:06:28,600 --> 01:06:31,040
Speaker 3: one dour and win one hundred in free bets if

1415
01:06:31,080 --> 01:06:34,760
Speaker 3: there's a touchdown scored in the Ravens Texans game. As

1416
01:06:34,800 --> 01:06:36,520
Speaker 3: a reminder, you must be twenty one or older and

1417
01:06:36,520 --> 01:06:40,800
Speaker 3: physically located in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Nevada, or West Virginia.

1418
01:06:40,840 --> 01:06:42,240
Speaker 2: Please gamble responsibly.

1419
01:06:42,440 --> 01:06:44,280
Speaker 3: Have a gambling problem called one eight hundred five to

1420
01:06:44,280 --> 01:06:46,880
Speaker 3: two four seven zero zero in Colorado and Nevada, one

1421
01:06:46,880 --> 01:06:49,160
Speaker 3: eight hundred gambler in New Jersey and West Virginia or

1422
01:06:49,160 --> 01:06:51,440
Speaker 3: one eight hundred and nine with it in Indiana.

1423
01:06:51,480 --> 01:06:54,280
Speaker 2: Promo offer not available in Nevada. All right, let's finish

1424
01:06:54,400 --> 01:06:55,919
Speaker 2: up with our Survivor picks of the week.

1425
01:06:56,600 --> 01:07:03,600
Speaker 6: One pick, one chance to vans Survivor.

1426
01:07:04,880 --> 01:07:07,440
Speaker 3: All right, stuck, This is a tough Survivor week. Who

1427
01:07:07,480 --> 01:07:10,400
Speaker 3: you're going with for your pick? We both hit last week.

1428
01:07:10,400 --> 01:07:13,000
Speaker 3: You had the Bills, I had the Steelers.

1429
01:07:13,480 --> 01:07:15,960
Speaker 4: Well, if you go on actionnetwork dot Com at the

1430
01:07:16,000 --> 01:07:19,840
Speaker 4: Action that I have my survivor plan out there, this week,

1431
01:07:19,880 --> 01:07:22,720
Speaker 4: I have the Browns. This is a Thursday night, so

1432
01:07:22,760 --> 01:07:24,040
Speaker 4: you might be listening to this on Friday. You might

1433
01:07:24,040 --> 01:07:26,600
Speaker 4: be listening on Saturday or Sunday. I'm sticking with my plan.

1434
01:07:26,640 --> 01:07:28,480
Speaker 4: It makes me nervous as hell going with the Browns.

1435
01:07:28,920 --> 01:07:31,400
Speaker 4: But if you're listening to this after Thursday and you

1436
01:07:31,400 --> 01:07:34,760
Speaker 4: didn't get it in, I would go with the buckser

1437
01:07:35,160 --> 01:07:38,200
Speaker 4: or decent pick, but I'm using them later in the year.

1438
01:07:38,480 --> 01:07:40,040
Speaker 4: One of the teams I don't have projected to use

1439
01:07:40,080 --> 01:07:42,880
Speaker 4: is the Titans. I think they're safe this week. So

1440
01:07:42,960 --> 01:07:44,800
Speaker 4: if you're listening to this after Thursday, I go with

1441
01:07:44,800 --> 01:07:45,280
Speaker 4: the Titans.

1442
01:07:45,800 --> 01:07:47,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's what I'm gonna do. I'm gonna

1443
01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:48,800
Speaker 2: go with the Titans here.

1444
01:07:49,160 --> 01:07:51,760
Speaker 3: Browns, they just they just made me too nervous. Just

1445
01:07:52,560 --> 01:07:56,280
Speaker 3: I think they're the right side. But just a division game,

1446
01:07:57,160 --> 01:07:59,000
Speaker 3: or a division game that I expect to be a

1447
01:07:59,040 --> 01:08:02,520
Speaker 3: little bit closer then the Titans, which is also a

1448
01:08:02,560 --> 01:08:06,720
Speaker 3: division game. The Titans aren't gonna give gift the Jaguars

1449
01:08:07,280 --> 01:08:10,000
Speaker 3: all those points the way the Colts were. Oh though

1450
01:08:10,040 --> 01:08:12,120
Speaker 3: they might because they don't have a kicker. So oh

1451
01:08:12,160 --> 01:08:14,240
Speaker 3: my god, Actually no, I can't do that.

1452
01:08:14,440 --> 01:08:17,280
Speaker 2: Oh this is this is I'm going with the Cardinals.

1453
01:08:17,360 --> 01:08:17,640
Speaker 2: Forget it.

1454
01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:20,799
Speaker 3: Let's let's just go with the Cardinals, because I can't choose.

1455
01:08:20,600 --> 01:08:22,759
Speaker 2: The Titans right now in they're kicking situation. I can't.

1456
01:08:23,000 --> 01:08:25,200
Speaker 2: That's just so yeah, I'm gonna I'm switching it up.

1457
01:08:25,200 --> 01:08:27,760
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Cardinals against Washington football team.

1458
01:08:28,000 --> 01:08:32,640
Speaker 3: Washington football team out outperformed expectations, Cardinals outperform expectations.

1459
01:08:32,680 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 2: Cardinals the better team here.

1460
01:08:34,680 --> 01:08:37,160
Speaker 3: All right, let's close it out stuck with the best

1461
01:08:37,200 --> 01:08:40,040
Speaker 3: of the rest, which are the games we didn't cover

1462
01:08:40,520 --> 01:08:44,639
Speaker 3: in any other segment. And since you ended up taking

1463
01:08:44,880 --> 01:08:48,439
Speaker 3: the Cards, we have just won. And it's a good one.

1464
01:08:48,960 --> 01:08:52,680
Speaker 3: It's the Sunday night game, the Patriots at the Seahawks.

1465
01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:57,280
Speaker 3: Patriots four point underdogs, total forty four and a half.

1466
01:08:57,320 --> 01:08:58,680
Speaker 2: Thoughts on this game, stuff.

1467
01:08:58,520 --> 01:09:00,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, these are like the two goats going up against

1468
01:09:00,720 --> 01:09:02,800
Speaker 4: each other. If Bill Belichick, if you bet on him,

1469
01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:04,840
Speaker 4: He's in the regular season one hundred and sixty two,

1470
01:09:04,880 --> 01:09:08,120
Speaker 4: one hundred and two and nine against the spread, sets

1471
01:09:08,160 --> 01:09:10,840
Speaker 4: sixty one point four percent, covering by an average about

1472
01:09:10,840 --> 01:09:14,320
Speaker 4: three point seven points per game over a twenty percent ROI.

1473
01:09:14,600 --> 01:09:16,519
Speaker 4: That's the most profitable one hundred and twenty eight coaches

1474
01:09:16,520 --> 01:09:19,960
Speaker 4: in our bet Labs database. Even as an underdog, he's

1475
01:09:19,960 --> 01:09:22,599
Speaker 4: even better twenty three nine and two against the spread

1476
01:09:22,600 --> 01:09:25,240
Speaker 4: at seventy one point nine percent, covering by over a

1477
01:09:25,280 --> 01:09:28,800
Speaker 4: touchdown per game forty percent ROI. But then you're going

1478
01:09:28,840 --> 01:09:31,680
Speaker 4: up against Russell Wilson. He's sixty nine fifty three and

1479
01:09:31,800 --> 01:09:35,080
Speaker 4: seven against the spread ten point two percent ris seventh

1480
01:09:35,120 --> 01:09:37,439
Speaker 4: most profitable quarterback of two hundred and thirty eight in

1481
01:09:37,479 --> 01:09:40,200
Speaker 4: our database. He's also the goat in primetime. You're gonna

1482
01:09:40,200 --> 01:09:42,080
Speaker 4: hear that. Leading up to Sunday Night, he's twenty one

1483
01:09:42,200 --> 01:09:45,559
Speaker 4: nine and three against the spread, seventy percent, covering by

1484
01:09:45,600 --> 01:09:48,880
Speaker 4: almost a touchdown per game. So what happens when these

1485
01:09:48,920 --> 01:09:51,960
Speaker 4: two teams beat up, Well, well it's happened twice, four

1486
01:09:52,040 --> 01:09:53,840
Speaker 4: years ago and eight years ago. Wilson got the best

1487
01:09:53,840 --> 01:09:57,080
Speaker 4: of the Patriots in both games. In twenty sixteen, the

1488
01:09:57,200 --> 01:10:00,040
Speaker 4: Seahawks won thirty one to twenty four in foxbroeven and

1489
01:10:00,040 --> 01:10:03,320
Speaker 4: a half point dogs. Twenty twelve, they won twenty four

1490
01:10:03,439 --> 01:10:06,400
Speaker 4: twenty three in Seattle against the Patriots is three and

1491
01:10:06,439 --> 01:10:07,120
Speaker 4: a half point dogs.

1492
01:10:07,320 --> 01:10:10,920
Speaker 2: The third Russell Wilson, there's a third playoff.

1493
01:10:11,360 --> 01:10:16,320
Speaker 4: Well playoffs, and yeah, you're right they and Russell Wilson

1494
01:10:16,360 --> 01:10:19,960
Speaker 4: got the better of them. Oh wait, Pete Carroll didn't

1495
01:10:20,040 --> 01:10:22,679
Speaker 4: hand it off to Marshawn Lynch. Uh, so the Patriots

1496
01:10:22,720 --> 01:10:24,759
Speaker 4: actually covered that a game was I think the Patriots

1497
01:10:24,760 --> 01:10:28,040
Speaker 4: are one point underdogs, but this should have covered. But

1498
01:10:28,200 --> 01:10:31,080
Speaker 4: Russell Wilson in the two regular season matchups, listen to this.

1499
01:10:31,640 --> 01:10:35,240
Speaker 4: Russell Wilson in the two regular season matchup against the Patriots,

1500
01:10:35,520 --> 01:10:39,360
Speaker 4: Listen to this. Forty one of sixty four, six hundred

1501
01:10:39,360 --> 01:10:43,840
Speaker 4: and forty one yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions. That one

1502
01:10:43,880 --> 01:10:45,559
Speaker 4: of one of those games includes the U mad Bro

1503
01:10:45,760 --> 01:10:49,320
Speaker 4: game from Richard Sherman. Remember that, Oh yeah, oh Patriots

1504
01:10:49,360 --> 01:10:51,799
Speaker 4: the Yawks game. Well, Russell Wilson is dominated the Patriots

1505
01:10:51,840 --> 01:10:55,320
Speaker 4: and like his legs and his you know, they the Patriots.

1506
01:10:55,320 --> 01:10:56,920
Speaker 4: A was gonna play a lot of man and Russell

1507
01:10:56,920 --> 01:10:59,880
Speaker 4: Wilson keeps plays live and it's it's it gives the

1508
01:11:00,439 --> 01:11:02,240
Speaker 4: Patriots a lot of trouble, and Bill Belichick said that

1509
01:11:02,640 --> 01:11:04,680
Speaker 4: Russell Wilson's given them nightmares in the past. Even though

1510
01:11:04,680 --> 01:11:07,960
Speaker 4: it's a small sample size. I make the Seahawks around

1511
01:11:08,000 --> 01:11:11,400
Speaker 4: three point favorites a little little over three, and I

1512
01:11:11,479 --> 01:11:14,959
Speaker 4: make the total right around here is a perfect, perfect

1513
01:11:15,840 --> 01:11:18,080
Speaker 4: live vetting game for me. I don't think I'll have

1514
01:11:18,120 --> 01:11:20,080
Speaker 4: anything pregame of a right up on the Action app

1515
01:11:20,120 --> 01:11:22,559
Speaker 4: and actionew dot com for but you know, if Seahawks

1516
01:11:22,600 --> 01:11:26,439
Speaker 4: get behind early, if there's not a lot of points early,

1517
01:11:27,000 --> 01:11:28,519
Speaker 4: the picture is gonna go slow. They're gonna run the

1518
01:11:28,560 --> 01:11:31,040
Speaker 4: ball a lot. We're still learning about their offense. I

1519
01:11:31,120 --> 01:11:33,160
Speaker 4: might be looking for a live over, so I'll be

1520
01:11:33,240 --> 01:11:34,960
Speaker 4: trading this live. You can follow me on the Action app.

1521
01:11:35,080 --> 01:11:37,680
Speaker 4: I think the total and the spread are about right,

1522
01:11:37,720 --> 01:11:41,200
Speaker 4: but Russell Wilson has dominated the Patriots in a matchup

1523
01:11:41,280 --> 01:11:44,160
Speaker 4: of a coach and a quarterback that you normally can't

1524
01:11:44,200 --> 01:11:46,080
Speaker 4: go wrong backing. But something has to give.

1525
01:11:46,680 --> 01:11:50,240
Speaker 3: So I have this game Seahawks favored by three and

1526
01:11:50,280 --> 01:11:53,120
Speaker 3: a half. So no, not really showing any value forced

1527
01:11:53,160 --> 01:11:55,000
Speaker 3: me to pick the game. And I'd probably just go

1528
01:11:55,120 --> 01:11:59,120
Speaker 3: Seahawks money line because we have the better quarterback going

1529
01:11:59,200 --> 01:12:03,719
Speaker 3: up against quarterback who is notorious for being a front runner.

1530
01:12:03,800 --> 01:12:06,400
Speaker 3: And let's be honest that that Dolphins game didn't really

1531
01:12:06,439 --> 01:12:09,479
Speaker 3: test Cam Newton. He barely threw the football, he was

1532
01:12:09,560 --> 01:12:11,960
Speaker 3: able to run. But you know, just like you can say, well,

1533
01:12:12,000 --> 01:12:14,680
Speaker 3: the Patriots maybe they are practicing against that now, so

1534
01:12:14,720 --> 01:12:17,719
Speaker 3: their defense could be better against Russ. But the Seahawks

1535
01:12:17,800 --> 01:12:20,960
Speaker 3: defense is always practice against a quarterback like Cam Newton.

1536
01:12:21,280 --> 01:12:23,519
Speaker 3: So will he be able to get off and get

1537
01:12:23,600 --> 01:12:27,000
Speaker 3: loose as much against Seattle with Jamal Adams now playing

1538
01:12:27,000 --> 01:12:30,840
Speaker 3: a little more physical I don't think so. So yeah,

1539
01:12:30,880 --> 01:12:33,000
Speaker 3: I would probably just go Seahawks money line because I

1540
01:12:33,000 --> 01:12:34,240
Speaker 3: don't see much value on the spread.

1541
01:12:34,280 --> 01:12:36,840
Speaker 2: And that's a great point live betting. Maybe the way

1542
01:12:36,920 --> 01:12:37,080
Speaker 2: to go.

1543
01:12:37,479 --> 01:12:39,320
Speaker 3: You know, maybe the Patriots get up early and people

1544
01:12:39,400 --> 01:12:41,519
Speaker 3: think Cam is going to keep on chugging, but I

1545
01:12:41,560 --> 01:12:42,840
Speaker 3: think it comes to a halt right here.

1546
01:12:42,960 --> 01:12:44,280
Speaker 2: I think the Seahawks win this game.

1547
01:12:44,479 --> 01:12:46,559
Speaker 3: But Seahawks never win games by a lot of points, right,

1548
01:12:46,640 --> 01:12:50,479
Speaker 3: So moneyline for me or yeah, as you said better live,

1549
01:12:50,960 --> 01:12:51,479
Speaker 3: and that's.

1550
01:12:51,320 --> 01:12:52,240
Speaker 2: Gonna do it for this week.

1551
01:12:52,320 --> 01:12:55,559
Speaker 3: Hope you enjoyed this episode of the Action Network NFL

1552
01:12:55,720 --> 01:12:58,800
Speaker 3: podcast Stuck an Eye will be back next week to

1553
01:12:58,880 --> 01:13:01,639
Speaker 3: break down We three will also have the Fantasy Flex

1554
01:13:01,680 --> 01:13:04,400
Speaker 3: and Stuck and Colin Wilson's show as well.

1555
01:13:05,240 --> 01:13:07,040
Speaker 2: If you want to find Stuck, you can find him on.

1556
01:13:07,080 --> 01:13:09,639
Speaker 3: Twitter at Stucky Too, and in the Action Network app

1557
01:13:10,200 --> 01:13:12,400
Speaker 3: at the same handle. You can find me on Twitter

1558
01:13:12,439 --> 01:13:15,519
Speaker 3: at Chris Raybon and also at Chris Raybon in the

1559
01:13:15,760 --> 01:13:16,800
Speaker 3: Action App.

1560
01:13:17,240 --> 01:13:21,360
Speaker 2: Good luck on your bets this week. Let's get this money.

1561
01:13:22,200 --> 01:13:39,920
Speaker 4: No Ravens, We're finished talking.