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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree? A great one?

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Speaker 3: Five dollars?

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Speaker 1: This is a rough cowbu they tackled Hit one man.

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Speaker 1: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 3: Humans need fantasy to be human. My goodness, misspeak.

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Speaker 1: You guys a pro best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 3: All right, hit that horn?

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Speaker 1: Bab bless?

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Speaker 3: What is good? Everybody?

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Speaker 1: And welcome to another episode of the Fantasy Flex Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I am your host, Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 1: Joined is always by one of the top rankers in

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Speaker 1: a game in Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 3: And today we got a special episode.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk all about Vegas rankings as they relate

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Speaker 1: to Fantasy football. And to do that, to help us out,

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Speaker 1: we got the promo Guy. He's the promo Guy one

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Speaker 1: two three underscore on the Action app. The promo Guy

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Speaker 1: went two three on Twitter.

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Speaker 3: What is good man? Thanks for joining us, Hey, thank

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Speaker 3: you guys. Pleasure to be here. Yeah there.

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Speaker 1: So what we're gonna do is we're gonna kind of

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Speaker 1: look at the promo guys Vegas rankings. He's a plus

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Speaker 1: TV betting expert specializes in highlighting the most advantageous sports

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Speaker 1: books promotions, odds, boosts and things like that.

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Speaker 3: And he's releasing these.

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Speaker 1: Vegas rankings new for this season, and it's a ranking

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Speaker 1: of players using their Vegas season long player props, you know,

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Speaker 1: to kind of come to the fantasy point conclusion. And

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Speaker 1: I think that's really interesting because it's like a wisdom

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Speaker 1: of the crowds kind of ranking system.

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Speaker 3: But promo guy tell us a little bit more about those.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you hit on the head. Vegas based rankings, you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of leverage the wisdom of the crowds. It's not

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Speaker 2: what one expert thinks, but where people are you know,

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Speaker 2: willing to put their money on, where sportsbooks are are

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Speaker 2: offering and you know, willing to accept bets on as

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Speaker 2: opposed to person's opinion. It sort of comes to a

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Speaker 2: consensus or to an efficient market that Vegas ends.

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Speaker 3: Up, you know, being in.

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Speaker 2: So we created these the player props. You know, a

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Speaker 2: lot of sports books, particularly DraftKings, we use over unders

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Speaker 2: on people's player crops. So for example, Jonathan Taylor's rushing yards, touchdowns,

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Speaker 2: receiving yards, and receptions. We take those and just sort

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Speaker 2: of convert them into projected fantasy points and then rank

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Speaker 2: people that way.

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Speaker 1: You know, let's just jump right in, like what kind

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Speaker 1: of differences are you see in between your Vegas rankings

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Speaker 1: and some of the more general consensus rankings.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so there were a few that kind of jumped out.

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Speaker 3: First off.

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Speaker 2: A lot of the top guys were really separated, and

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Speaker 2: a lot of rankings. It's sort of hard to quantify

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Speaker 2: that because there's no point totals next to them in

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Speaker 2: most people's rankings, so you just see one versus two,

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Speaker 2: but you don't know kind of the differential between them.

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Speaker 2: But Jonathan Taylor had a nineteen point Frans and Standardleas

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Speaker 2: over Derrick Henry and then another big drop off to

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Speaker 2: almost thirty five points over now Jay Harris. Josh Allen

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Speaker 2: really stuck out. He's actually a late first round pick.

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Speaker 2: In our rankings, we use sort of the value over

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Speaker 2: the place of players, so kind of the last guy

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Speaker 2: drafted their position as well as the last remaining starter.

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Speaker 2: But Josh Allen comes in as a late first round pick.

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Speaker 2: He is thirty five points ahead of Mahomes and Herbert,

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Speaker 2: which I think is a bit above sort of the

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Speaker 2: consensus out there. I think most people have them a

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Speaker 2: bit closer and certainly Josh Allen's not going in the

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Speaker 2: second or early second, late first round.

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Speaker 3: In most drafts, we haven't a.

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Speaker 2: Number eleven overall. And then you kind of go to

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Speaker 2: tight end, where we saw another big difference in the

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Speaker 2: top guys, where Travis Kelcey's projected eighteen points over Mark Andrews,

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Speaker 2: and his overall a mid second round pick is again

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Speaker 2: higher than he's generally going in a bigger difference we

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Speaker 2: saw between the two ESPM projections actually had Andrews over Kelsey,

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Speaker 2: although I think most people in the space view Kelsey's

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Speaker 2: number one, just not at that same kind of, you know,

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Speaker 2: over eighteen point differential. So that was the first thing

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Speaker 2: that stuck out to me, sort of the top guys

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Speaker 2: separating themselves, as well as sort of the value of

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Speaker 2: a QB and tight end being put a higher premium

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Speaker 2: as opposed to, you know, sort of the traditional running

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Speaker 2: back receiver going and taking up every spot in the

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Speaker 2: first and second round. And then the other thing that

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Speaker 2: kind of jumped out was just a few players here

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Speaker 2: and there focusing on the running backs. It's kind of

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Speaker 2: where we saw some of the bigger differences. You have

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Speaker 2: Saquon Barkley at number eleven in the betting market. That

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Speaker 2: was actually a line that moved up well when we

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Speaker 2: were doing this, and I think kind of highlights that

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Speaker 2: a lot of rankings overall can be a bit stale.

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Speaker 2: People aren't adjusting them day to day. And I think

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Speaker 2: that there has been in the fantasy space, best correct

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Speaker 2: me if I'm wrong, a lot of kind of Saquon

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Speaker 2: height recently, and the betting markets we're able to sort

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Speaker 2: of reflect that pretty quickly. So we have him as

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Speaker 2: the number eleven running back, whereas the ESPN consensus rankings

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Speaker 2: have the number sixteen. And then the other big difference

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Speaker 2: in the running back space is Naj Harris and Austin Eckler.

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Speaker 2: They are flip, so Naja Harris we Vegas has the

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Speaker 2: number three running back and Austin Eckler the number seven

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Speaker 2: running back. So Eckler is pretty consensus at number three

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Speaker 2: and Harris's generally behind, like Christian McCaffrey Dalvin Cook. So

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Speaker 2: I thought it was very interesting to see these guys flipped.

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Speaker 2: Not a huge point differential, but you know, having Eckler's

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Speaker 2: the number seven running back is certainly a little different.

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Speaker 2: Although he jumps up in PPR formats, which kind of

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Speaker 2: brings me to the last thing that I found, I

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Speaker 2: guess the most interesting, which was receptions. Vegas has a

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Speaker 2: lot of these guys receptions theoretically a lot higher than

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Speaker 2: what consensus rekords do. Christian McCaffrey actually becomes the number

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Speaker 2: one PPR running back, Ekoo jumps up. Pretty much all

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Speaker 2: of those receiving backs take a big jump forward in

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Speaker 2: PPR that you don't see to the same scale in

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Speaker 2: traditional rankings. So maybe either Vegas is overestimating receptions or

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Speaker 2: the general rankers aren't maybe adjusting enough.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's interesting because I actually just bet

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Speaker 1: an Aaron Jones reception under and I think Aaron Jones

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Speaker 1: was going to catch a lot of passes, but they

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Speaker 1: had him at like sixty six and a half. And

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Speaker 1: you know, even if I project him for seventeen games,

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Speaker 1: I would still get him like to sixty fives, you know,

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Speaker 1: So I think that's interesting. Sean, what are your thoughts

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Speaker 1: on what the promo guys said specifically with the running backs,

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Speaker 1: And you know, kind of the difference is because I

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Speaker 1: think one thing I've always suspected and you might know

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Speaker 1: about this more than most of us because you are

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Speaker 1: the odds maker. But do you think Vague is properly

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Speaker 1: factoring in the missed games for.

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Speaker 3: These guys, because that's what I feel, especially for Ryanbacks,

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Speaker 3: I feel like that kind of makes a difference.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I love this idea. I mean, I essentially

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Speaker 4: do something similar where I am trying to project more

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Speaker 4: in line with the median outcome for every player. But

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Speaker 4: when it comes to fantasy we can get to it.

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Speaker 4: There are certain times where I think you should be

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Speaker 4: targeting at players four versus their ceiling. So overall, I

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Speaker 4: think these look excellent. And the thing that struck out

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Speaker 4: to me was the Naji Harris at number three over

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Speaker 4: Austin Eckler at number six. I think that's that's pretty

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Speaker 4: sharp because they are factoring in things like regression. So

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Speaker 4: you know, Usin Eckler scored was it twenty touchdowns last year?

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Speaker 4: Nausea Harris only scored ten, So you figure both of

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Speaker 4: them are gonna agress closer to the memes, so nause

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Speaker 4: probably gonna get a slight boost and touchdowns whereus Eckler

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Speaker 4: could see a decline. So you know, when it comes

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Speaker 4: to Vegas rankings, they're gonna be very sharp because it

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Speaker 4: is wisdom of the crowds, but it's wisdom of the

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Speaker 4: crowds of people betting actual money. So you're gonna get

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Speaker 4: pretty sharp projections. And these are essentially going to be

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Speaker 4: very accurate medium projection. So I think, especially when we're

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Speaker 4: talking about some of these higher end players, that's what

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Speaker 4: you should be looking at. So I think a lot

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Speaker 4: of these differences make a ton of sense to me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, from and for everyone out there listening, there's an

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Speaker 1: article up. You have an article up on actionnetwork dot

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Speaker 1: com right now where you kind of jumping into these

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Speaker 1: more specifically, right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So so that article is, you know, very similar

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Speaker 2: to kind of the breakdown we're giving now, I would

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Speaker 2: say one kind of and you can see the full

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Speaker 2: rankings obviously, but one kind of cool component of it,

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Speaker 2: which I alluded to earlier, was that these rankings, you know,

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Speaker 2: they're updated let's say daily or you know, relatively frequently,

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Speaker 2: so that you can sort of see how these are

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Speaker 2: moving in real time as opposed to ADPs and and

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Speaker 2: you know other rankings that not saying either of yours,

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Speaker 2: but that can be somewhat stale. So so yeah, and

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Speaker 2: I think you had a good point Sean referring to

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Speaker 2: sort of the median outcome as opposed to ceilium floor

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Speaker 2: and focusing on the higher rated guys. I think that's

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Speaker 2: absolutely true. You know, one drawback, you could have these

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Speaker 2: rankings and they don't really come up too much because

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Speaker 2: it only goes down to you know, here we have

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Speaker 2: looks like thirty running backs, a guy like let's say

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Speaker 2: Tony Pollard or you know, Alexander Madison who's not in

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Speaker 2: the rankings but could be a really valuable handcuff. And

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Speaker 2: while it's somewhat baked in right that if Zeke goes down,

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Speaker 2: Pollard will have more rushing yards, and that's focused in

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Speaker 2: the median. You know, you only start two running backs

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Speaker 2: in the flys, right usually, so you know there are

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Speaker 2: certain guys that can help win you your league, and

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Speaker 2: you know targeting late round guys median projections may not

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Speaker 2: be the way to go as opposed to in the

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Speaker 2: first let's call it five six rounds, where you are

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Speaker 2: really focused on medium projections because you're starting them every

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Speaker 2: week and you're relying on them for points, so you

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Speaker 2: want to know how they points they're going to get.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think early in the draft.

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Speaker 1: You know, we always say you cannot you can't really

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Speaker 1: win your draft early in the draft, but you can

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Speaker 1: lose it. So I think it does make sense to

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Speaker 1: kind of understand the median outcome. One of the guys

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Speaker 1: I think is interesting that I think there's somewhat of

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Speaker 1: a discrepancy in the Vegas odds is Michael Thomas. I've

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Speaker 1: seen them around eight hundred receiving yards, which you know

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are. I think it he's just

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Speaker 1: going to go right back to be in Michael Thomas.

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Speaker 1: Any thoughts on him and what you've been seeing there.

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Speaker 2: Michael Thomas is actually right perfectly in line with ESPN.

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Speaker 2: He's the number thirty four receiver, so I don't have

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Speaker 2: anything too much to note there. His actual projected points

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Speaker 2: at one fourteen and a half is right in line

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Speaker 2: with ESPN's projected points at one thirteen point six. So

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Speaker 2: fully uninteresting on my end, but what about you see?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so he's interesting because he's already sort of dealing

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Speaker 4: with the hamstring injury heading into Week one, and these

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Speaker 4: most of these bets are going to be valid only

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Speaker 4: if they play in Week one, so that that's probably

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Speaker 4: why it's a bit higher because if he does happen

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Speaker 4: in this week one, you know they can cancel him anyway.

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Speaker 4: And just going back to a previous point you brought

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Speaker 4: up right about, I don't think I answered it, but

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Speaker 4: I think Vegas is doing a lot better job in

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Speaker 4: Factory and Miss games. If you notice, like a lot

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Speaker 4: of the props are a lot lower this year. Typically

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Speaker 4: I'm just hammering a bunch of vendors, but I think

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Speaker 4: they've done a good job of kind of just lowering

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Speaker 4: everybody as a whole, which is tough because you know,

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Speaker 4: last season they added an extra game, so we have

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Speaker 4: an extra game to deal with. It just seems like

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Speaker 4: overall the projections or the props themselves are a lot sharper.

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Speaker 4: So that's why you know these kind of rankings are

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Speaker 4: going to be pretty accurate.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know they're really good stuff.

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Speaker 1: So again, you guys can go check that out actionnetwork

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Speaker 1: dot com. The Promo Guys full article is up where

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Speaker 1: you can kind of sort sift through the rankings and

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Speaker 1: read more about it. You can also find them on

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Speaker 1: the Action Network app at the Promo Guy one two

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Speaker 1: three underscore, and on Twitter at the Promo Guy one

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Speaker 1: two three you can find Sean on Twitter at the

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Speaker 1: Underscore Odds Maker.

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Speaker 3: You can find me at Chris Raybon. You can find

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Speaker 3: us at those.

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Speaker 1: Same handles on a free, award winning Action Network app.

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Speaker 1: I'll be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com for

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Speaker 1: all of our betting and fantasy football content. Until next time,

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Speaker 1: get this money.