1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,560 Speaker 1: Hi, This is newt Twenty twenty is going to be 2 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:05,080 Speaker 1: one of the most extraordinary election years of our lifetime. 3 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: I want to invite you to join my Inner Circle 4 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: as we discuss each twist and turn in the presidential race. 5 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:16,120 Speaker 1: In my members only Inner Circle Club, you'll receive special 6 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: flash briefings, online events, and members only audio reports from 7 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:23,680 Speaker 1: me and my team. Here is a special offer for 8 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: my podcast listeners. 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Join My Inner Circle today at Newtcenter 13 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: Circle dot com slash podcast use the Code podcast at checkout. 14 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:51,840 Speaker 1: Sign up today at Newtcenter Circle dot com slash podcast 15 00:00:51,880 --> 00:01:05,040 Speaker 1: and use the Code podcast Hurry this Offtway Spires February fourteenth. 16 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: On this episode of Newtsworld, this is the third episode 17 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 1: in our three part series about China, and we're focusing 18 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 1: on China's warming relationship with Russia. In June twenty nineteen, 19 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: China's General Secretary Jijianpeng met with Russia's President Vladimir Putin 20 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: during a three day state visit to Russia. The occasion 21 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: was to mark the seventieth anniversary of China Russia diplomatic relations. 22 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: Both countries engaged in tense talks to deepen their political, 23 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 1: defense and trade relationships. In fact, Jijianpean has met with 24 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: Putin twenty four times since twenty thirteen. During their June meeting, 25 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 1: Ji referred to Putin as his best friend and presented 26 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 1: Moscow's zoo with two pandas. As the United States engages 27 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: in an ongoing trade war with China and has put 28 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 1: sanctions on Russia for their annexation of Ima and US 29 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: election interference, we ought to be very concerned about this 30 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:09,960 Speaker 1: warming partnership. On this episode, we'll explain why I'm pleased 31 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:15,239 Speaker 1: to introduce my guests, doctor Oriana Skylar Mastro, assistant Professor 32 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 1: of Security Studies at the mb and A. Wall School 33 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 1: of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and Hermann Pershner, founder 34 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 1: of the American Foreign Policy Council. Doctor Oriana Skylar Mastro, 35 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 1: as an assistant professor of Security Studies at the edmund A. 36 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: Wall School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and an 37 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 1: expert on China and East Asian security. I started studying 38 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:57,679 Speaker 1: China military issues mainly by being exposed to them in college. 39 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: So I actually got into Stanford for piano and drama 40 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 1: and enrolled in a special program in literature and philosophy, 41 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: but started taking Chinese language, and so I learned Chinese 42 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 1: and then went and spent some time in mainland China, 43 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 1: where I discovered that we've very much needed people in 44 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:17,800 Speaker 1: the United States have a deep understanding of China to 45 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: manage the challenges of its right. So I enrolled my 46 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: last year there at Stamford in a honors program at 47 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 1: the Center for International Security, Incoperation, and that was the 48 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 1: first time I was exposed to military and security issues, 49 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: and I just found them to be fascinating in one 50 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: of the most important components of the bilateral relationship. And 51 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: from there I continued on to get my PhD in 52 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 1: the topic and to work at a number of think 53 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 1: tanks in Washington, GC work and on defense issues such 54 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: as RAND and CNAs, and then joined the military myself 55 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 1: about almost ten years ago as a reserve officer, where 56 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: I've been actively working on these issues. So for me, 57 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: it's a personal passion, but it's also a patriotic passion 58 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 1: that I really do believe and have believed for quite 59 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: some time, that this is the challenge that faces the 60 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 1: United States, the foremost challenge, and if not managed correctly, 61 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: then not only would US security be at risk, but 62 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: the sort of stable, peaceful, and prosperous world that has 63 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 1: continued under US leadership is also at jeopardy. So, in 64 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 1: the eighteen years you've been looking at it, how has 65 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 1: the situation changed In your judgment? It's actually changed quite drastically, 66 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:26,160 Speaker 1: and even small changes can be drastic when they happen 67 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 1: for the first time. So I even wrote a piece 68 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 1: a couple of years ago in which I talked about 69 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 1: the China Russia relationship, and I kind of dismissed it, 70 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,599 Speaker 1: and I said that China basically looked to Russia for 71 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: natural resources and arms sales and some political support in 72 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:45,839 Speaker 1: international organizations, but it's really a transactional relationship in China 73 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 1: is not interested in anything else and will not be 74 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: interested in anything else. But there are a number of 75 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 1: things that have occurred in the past few years that 76 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 1: have made me question that original assumption, and I think 77 00:04:56,360 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 1: that's actually very important as a scholar. China changes so much, 78 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 1: and their policies and their interests are so dynamic that 79 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 1: we always have to keep it open mind to the 80 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 1: things that we thought were sacred might no longer be sacred. 81 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: I think you're the first person I've seen who really 82 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 1: methodically weaves together a Russian and Chinese mutual interest. How 83 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 1: much of that do you think is driven by just 84 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: trying to cope with us? So I think the part 85 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 1: of it is to cope with US. I don't think 86 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: it's a surprise that China's feeling the pressure of the 87 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: United States, and so is Russia. But there are many 88 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:33,599 Speaker 1: countries that feel those pressures from the United States, and 89 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 1: you don't see the same kind of courtship happening by 90 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 1: the Chinese. For example, if you look at on the 91 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: political side, Vladimir Putin and Chi Jimping have met seven 92 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:46,840 Speaker 1: times over the past year, and the two have typically 93 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,480 Speaker 1: met maybe five times a year, but they've met twenty 94 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 1: four times twenty thirteen. Well, she has met with his 95 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: US counterpart only sixteen times in the same period, so 96 00:05:55,839 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 1: they obviously have prioritized this on the political level. Now, 97 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 1: I had always kind of thought that was just to 98 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 1: poke the United States in the eye, and as a 99 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 1: security specialist, what I was really looking for was significant 100 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,919 Speaker 1: security cooperation between the two sides, And there were a 101 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: lot of scholars that pointed to a few events that 102 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:17,360 Speaker 1: occurred in the past year or two. For example, there 103 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 1: was a big exercise that the Russians held called Vostok 104 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: twenty eighteen that China participated in, and it was the 105 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: first time the scenario wasn't kind of a counter terrorism scenario, 106 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 1: but was an interstate war scenario, which made it relevant 107 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:33,280 Speaker 1: from North Korea. So that was kind of an enhancement 108 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,359 Speaker 1: of their security cooperation. But even so, in my mind, 109 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 1: that wasn't a huge sign, right, I mean, military exercise. 110 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 1: It was trying to scent you know, thirty two hundred 111 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 1: people to that exercise. It wasn't huge. So I still 112 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 1: hadn't changed my mind at that point. What really made 113 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 1: me rethink the relationship was when China and Russia conducted 114 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 1: a joint air patrol. In Chinese writings, they'd talked about 115 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 1: not wanting Russian involvement in the region, and so in 116 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: this game, and you know, I don't know the details 117 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,119 Speaker 1: of how this, you know, this joint air patrol took 118 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: place over the summer. But this is the first time 119 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 1: it was like China was inviting Russia to be more 120 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: active in the security sphere in the region. And so 121 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 1: this was very problematic because the United States military is 122 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 1: already at a point that in some contingencies in Asia 123 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 1: we might not prevail given Chinese military modernization. So even 124 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: the slightest Russian cooperation, even if we're not talking about 125 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 1: Russia fighting with China or full interoperability or even Rishia 126 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: that standard, maybe Russia supports a Chinese Taiwan effort with 127 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 1: a squadron of fighters, even that would complicate US planning significantly. 128 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: And so what it made me realize is that China 129 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: is going to start using this Russian involvement to make 130 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 1: it difficult for the United States to counter it. That's 131 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: that's concerning to me. Do you see the Chinese being 132 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 1: the dominant partner or do you see mutuality or how 133 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: would how would you phrase I see China as a 134 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 1: dominant partner. And again, this is one of the reasons 135 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 1: I'd underestimated the significance of the relationship before, because I 136 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: had assumed that Russia would demand reciprocity in the relationship. 137 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: For example, if Russia was going to support Chinese goals 138 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: in Asia militarily, that they would demand that China supported 139 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 1: their goals in Europe. And I'm pretty confident in my 140 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 1: assessment to China has no interest in getting involved in 141 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 1: Russian revisionism in Europe. I mean, China sees themselves as 142 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 1: a legitimate rising power. They see Russia kind of already declined, 143 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 1: calling a lot of trouble for no reason. They don't 144 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:42,200 Speaker 1: like to be involved in international crises that they themselves 145 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:45,680 Speaker 1: don't cause. So I had previously thought that because China 146 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 1: was not going to be supportive of Russia in terms 147 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 1: of security cooperation in Europe, that the Russians would be 148 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 1: unwilling to cooperate with China and Asia. But that Joint 149 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 1: Ear Patrol signaled that that assessment was in correct, and 150 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 1: that maybe, you know, I'd heard from other Russian experts 151 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 1: that Russia knows it has to be a junior partner 152 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: to somebody, and being a junior partner to China is 153 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: better than trying to be a junior partner to the 154 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: United States, And involvement with China gives them more influence 155 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 1: in Asia, which they see to their benefit. So the 156 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: Chinese at least see Russia as a little brother in 157 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 1: this relationship. Do you see the Russians being able to 158 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 1: sustain the relative technological advantages they've had in military capabilities, 159 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: or do you see that as their economy has ground 160 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 1: down that that's also applied to their capacity to invest 161 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 1: in military I think from the Chinese perspective, they had 162 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:46,319 Speaker 1: relied on Russian technology and technological advancements for a lot 163 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 1: of the past couple decades of military modernization. But the 164 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 1: fact that they're no longer looking to Russia. Maybe in 165 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 1: terms of jet engine propulsion, they still are looking to Russia, 166 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: but that's the only kind of area, and besides that, 167 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 1: engaging in their own indigenous innovation and obviously trying to 168 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:10,199 Speaker 1: take ideas and innovation stealing it from the United States 169 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 1: that they don't see Russia and the leading edge anymore. 170 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: And I think that assessment is largely correct. Whether it's 171 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: just close friendship or whether it's actually an alliance, complicates 172 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 1: are planning for the region, overwhelmingly, doesn't it right. So 173 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,959 Speaker 1: my assessment is I'm not worried about an alliance between 174 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 1: China and Russia, but I don't think it has to 175 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 1: get to that level for it to complicate us planning 176 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 1: and to threaten our interests even if we do just 177 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:42,559 Speaker 1: have a close collaborative friendship or a strategic partnership, a 178 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 1: comprehensive strategic partnership, which is the term that China uses 179 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 1: to designate the highest level of relations with a country, 180 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 1: because China doesn't believe in alliances, so the form that 181 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 1: the friendship takes might be different than what we're used to. 182 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: But the bottom line is what you laid out, is 183 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: this going to complicate the United States ability to defend 184 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: its partners and allies in Asia? And I think if 185 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: the trends continue the way that they're going with the 186 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 1: China Russian relationship, that that's going to be an additional 187 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:16,320 Speaker 1: factor that we have to consider. Coming up, Doctor Mastro 188 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 1: explains why her views on China have changed in the 189 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 1: last fifteen years. This is Week seven of my Profile 190 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,720 Speaker 1: Plan journey and Debbie and I are discussing personalized coaching 191 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 1: with our profile coach, Abby hi Newton. Debbie, I'm so 192 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 1: excited to be able to talk through personalized coaching and 193 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 1: how each profile member works with their coach for a 194 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 1: personalized nutrition plan. In the beginning of your journey. We 195 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 1: talk at length about your goals and your lifestyle preferences 196 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: to create a eight last plan that is right for 197 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 1: each of you. Abby. That's one of the things that 198 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:02,559 Speaker 1: have really set this process. Apart from me having a 199 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,840 Speaker 1: relationship with you, I think has really helped me stay 200 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:10,199 Speaker 1: focused and stay on track. I totally agree you know, Abby, 201 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,679 Speaker 1: you've made a difference. I've tried every diet plan that's 202 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: out there in the past, and while I've had success, 203 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 1: hadn't been able to talk through the frustrations or what 204 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 1: happens if you make a mistake. And you've been there 205 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 1: as a coach, and that's made all the difference. We 206 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,440 Speaker 1: really take pride in our coaching because we know that 207 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 1: it's something that really is going to make a difference 208 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: in your journey. Another aspect of the Profile Plan is 209 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 1: our profile precise DNA test that we ask you to take. 210 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,239 Speaker 1: It's a very simple, cheek slob and we can analyze 211 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: how your body may metabolize carbohydrates. I remember doing the 212 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 1: DNA test and it's actually very very easy, and I 213 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 1: think there's a picture of me taking the test on 214 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 1: the website profileplan dot com. Slash newt I'm very curious 215 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,680 Speaker 1: to hear about my results. Me too. I know I 216 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 1: struggle with carbohydrates and what I can learn from that. 217 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 1: But I really love about the Profile Precise DNA test 218 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 1: is that the results really are powerful. So those results 219 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 1: make it so that we can build a plan very 220 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 1: specific to you. When will we hear about our results 221 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:23,559 Speaker 1: next seek, I'll have your Profile Precise DNA results to share. 222 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: But for now, keep up the great work. Sign up 223 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,320 Speaker 1: now to start losing weight today. You can do it 224 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: with a profile coach like Abbey guiding you every step 225 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 1: of the way. Go to profile plan dot com slash 226 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 1: nute right now. News World listeners can get an exclusive 227 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:42,439 Speaker 1: offer one hundred dollars off a one year profile membership 228 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 1: by visiting profile plan dot com slash nute. Get your 229 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:49,439 Speaker 1: health journey started today with a free profile coach consultation 230 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 1: at your nearest profile location or by visiting profile plan 231 00:13:53,520 --> 00:14:11,560 Speaker 1: dot com slash newt Part of the reason I just 232 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: wrote a book on China was because I realized that 233 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: I'd made a series of assumptions starting with Dong Chaupeg's 234 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: Southern Tour two and the idea that as they opened 235 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:28,119 Speaker 1: up their economy that would lead to opening up their country, 236 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: and therefore, for example, bringing him into the World Trade 237 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 1: Organization would make sense because it would get them habituated 238 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 1: to the rule of law. And now that I look 239 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 1: back on that, I was just wrong. In fact, it 240 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 1: seems to me Dong Chopeg, who had helped found the 241 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 1: Chinese Communist Party, had no interest in becoming a Western 242 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 1: democracy in our sense, and he had every interest in 243 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 1: a contract with the Chinese people that said, look, you 244 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: get to have an open market for the purpose of 245 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: creating enough wealth that you don't mind us running the 246 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: country free, but we're going to still run the country. 247 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 1: How does your view of the China you started studying 248 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: in two thousand and one and the China you're now studying, 249 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 1: How has that view changed. That's a great question. It's 250 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: hard for me to criticize any decisions that were made 251 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 1: previously because the information that was available is different than 252 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 1: the information now. I don't think we did the wrong 253 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 1: thing by trying to immesh China into the global economy, 254 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 1: into international institutions. Now we have since discovered that there 255 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 1: are a number of problematic results from that. Right one, 256 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 1: I don't know if it's a generational thing. There was 257 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 1: a Washington Post article that posited it as generational. But 258 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 1: for me, I'm never disappointed in China, because China be 259 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 1: his exactly the way that I predict that they would 260 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 1: Behave the idea that through engagement we would convince China 261 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 1: that they were better off with the United States is 262 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: number one, This doesn't make any sense to me. Of course, 263 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: China wants to be number one in the region. They 264 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 1: don't want to be deterred by the United States, they 265 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 1: don't want to have to listen to the United States 266 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 1: when they make decisions, and so while working on defense 267 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 1: and security issues, my primary goal is the protection of 268 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 1: US interests and the national security of the United States 269 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 1: and our allies and partners. So many of the things 270 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: China does are very problematic from that perspective. But if 271 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 1: I were a Chinese strategist, I'd probably be telling them 272 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: to do exactly what they're doing. And so I'm not 273 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 1: surprised or disappointed, but I think that there are a 274 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 1: number of ways this could have gone, and obviously China 275 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: went in a more aggressive direction. So another thing to 276 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 1: point out on the defense side is we weren't talking 277 00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 1: about China's a national security threat, not because we missed something, 278 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 1: but because they were not a threat until probably fifteen 279 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 1: years ago. The Chinese military was so backwards in the 280 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 1: nineteen nineties that the Navy couldn't sail without having visual 281 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 1: range of the coast line, that their pilots couldn't fly 282 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 1: at night, and so the idea that we weren't paying 283 00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 1: attention to them as a threat made sense. They just 284 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: made improvements that were so rapid and much quicker than 285 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 1: we had expected. And so I think now, yes, it 286 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 1: took us some time to recognize the national security threat, 287 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 1: and with that my own personal views have changed greatly 288 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 1: because in the early two thousands, even by the sort 289 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 1: of two thousand and five to two thousand and nine 290 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 1: time frame, it did seem that China was pursuing a 291 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 1: strategy in which their number one goal is to maintain 292 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 1: positive relations with great powers like the United States and 293 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 1: to reassure smaller countries in Southeast Asia that they weren't 294 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: going to abuse their power. So China wasn't engaging in 295 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 1: the type of coercion that they engage in now. So 296 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 1: it did seem at that point that the United States 297 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 1: and China could coexist China could rise and we could 298 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,479 Speaker 1: manage that, and it could be beneficial for all. I 299 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 1: think my own personal view changed and I became a bit, 300 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: you know, some would say more hawkish on China, because 301 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:54,359 Speaker 1: Chinese behavior changed all of a sudden. Once they had 302 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: the military capabilities to do certain things and they had 303 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:01,119 Speaker 1: the economic leverage over countries, they started using it at 304 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: every possible opportunity. So we see China exploiting international institutions, 305 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 1: either rendering them ineffective when they work against China, like 306 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 1: Human Rights Commission, or coopting those institutions for their own 307 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:18,680 Speaker 1: personal benefits. We see them using economic coercion against countries 308 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,199 Speaker 1: whenever they're dissatisfied with something a country has done, and 309 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:25,120 Speaker 1: we see them more and more being comfortable using their 310 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 1: military forces in the region to intimidate other countries to 311 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:33,639 Speaker 1: concede to their overly expansive territorial claim. Because of this, 312 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:40,159 Speaker 1: I've become less optimistic about the prospects of cooperation and 313 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 1: generally positive relations between China and the United States, and instead, 314 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 1: just for realistic and pragmatic reasons, we're likely to see 315 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 1: the relationship characterized primarily by tension in conflict between in 316 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 1: competition between the two sides, probably for the remainder of 317 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 1: my career. Then the nineties they weren't going to be 318 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 1: able to compete with US, But now they're dramatically more capable, 319 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: and they've made very shrewd strategic investments both on the 320 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: Taiwan Straits and in the South Chinasee. And I think 321 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 1: mayas it's much more grim than the Navy's I think 322 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:18,360 Speaker 1: we'd have a very hard time and could not sustain 323 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: the casualties that potentially could be caused in that kind 324 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 1: of a setting. So that being the case, they clearly 325 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 1: now are stronger, substantially stronger, and are on a trajectory 326 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 1: to continue building that strength, aren't they. Oh yes, I 327 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 1: mean the trends are not in the US favor right now, 328 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 1: and we're just talking about what military STRTUS would refer 329 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: to as the first island chain is the primary consideration. 330 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 1: These are the waters between the coast of China and 331 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 1: then Taiwan, Japan down through the Philippines, basically the East 332 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 1: China and South chinessee. And then the second island chain 333 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 1: are the waters that go from the east coasts of 334 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,920 Speaker 1: those countries. The next chain of islands that's becoming more 335 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,639 Speaker 1: and more contested. I've been doing a lot of interviews 336 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 1: with military personnel about this issue of how problematic, for example, 337 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: Chinese a factor of the South China see would be 338 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 1: and I get a range of opinions, and so I'm 339 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 1: trying to figure out why I get this range, and 340 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 1: I'll break it down what I think I've kind of discovered. 341 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 1: There's sort of two things. One on the scholarly side, 342 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,359 Speaker 1: I think we're not having the right discussion about the 343 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 1: United States deterrent being eroded because of two reasons. Either 344 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,480 Speaker 1: scholars have wishful thinking about Chinese intentions. They think China 345 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 1: would never use force in the region, so the United 346 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 1: States doesn't have to be there to deter them. Or 347 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 1: they have an overestimation of US military capabilities but they 348 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 1: don't understand the constraints, for example, of range, and how 349 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 1: much more vulnerable the United States is because we have 350 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,880 Speaker 1: to rely on enablers. Right. What this means is we're 351 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 1: projecting power from very far distances, and so we have 352 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,919 Speaker 1: to rely on things like tankers to be fuel our aircraft, 353 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 1: and that creates a vulnerability that China can target. China 354 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 1: is projecting power from its own home. It has a 355 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 1: lot of advantages. And so for many people who maybe 356 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 1: have just focused on Iraq or Afghanistan or even US 357 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,919 Speaker 1: dominance since the end of the Cold War, they haven't 358 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: noticed some of the significant military changes and advancements that 359 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,440 Speaker 1: China has made. On the defense side, people are talking 360 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 1: about different issues. When you refer to casualties, that's about 361 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,639 Speaker 1: the balance of resolve versus balance of capabilities. Now a 362 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 1: military person would say to you something like, you know, 363 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 1: China has these islands they've militarized in the South China. See, 364 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:33,119 Speaker 1: I can just blow them up. Sure right, Yes, technically 365 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,639 Speaker 1: that is true. But there's a number of problems with that. 366 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 1: And I mean the first is that China has increased 367 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 1: the political threshold right now the United States. If China 368 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 1: militarizes those islands completely, it's no longer safe for us 369 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,120 Speaker 1: to fly in sail there. Then kind of a first 370 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 1: step before a military is even present, before we can 371 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 1: demonstrate resolves by sailing around or flying around, we have 372 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: to attack what China considers its territory. That's very aggressive. 373 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 1: It raises the standard, and so there are situations you'd 374 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 1: think that US president would be unwilling to do that. 375 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 1: The second thing is just timing. Yes, the United States 376 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: could take out some of these systems, but some of 377 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,440 Speaker 1: these contingencies, like a Taiwan contingency, China could take Taiwan 378 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,520 Speaker 1: in a matter of days. And so if we're fighting 379 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 1: our way into the area to protect Taiwan and we 380 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 1: have to destroy all these air defense systems and on 381 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 1: our way in, we might not get there in time. 382 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,640 Speaker 1: And so that's an additional complication. And the last thing 383 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 1: is what you mentioned was casualties. The United States does 384 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 1: not have the level of resolve that China has. This 385 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 1: is just a fact, and we shouldn't waste our time 386 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,879 Speaker 1: convincing China we care as much about Taiwan as they do, 387 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 1: because we do not. What we have to convince some 388 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,119 Speaker 1: of is it doesn't matter that we're not willing to 389 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,600 Speaker 1: pay the same price because we won't right, we won't 390 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 1: suffer the casualties that would make us go home. And 391 00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:00,640 Speaker 1: this requires resiliency. And so actually, if we of parody 392 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,719 Speaker 1: and military power in Asia, the United States is lost 393 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:08,360 Speaker 1: because deterrence is a combination of both capabilities and resolve. 394 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,199 Speaker 1: And if we have equal capabilities, but China is more 395 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,439 Speaker 1: resolved then our deterrent a weekend. So we actually have 396 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,680 Speaker 1: to maintain a level of superiority in our military capabilities 397 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 1: in order to maintain our deterrent against China, and that's 398 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 1: eroting very quickly. And that's a huge problem that I 399 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: think neither party is paying adequate attention to. I think 400 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:33,879 Speaker 1: we have almost no understanding in the US of the 401 00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 1: centrality of the party and the degree to which is real. 402 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,399 Speaker 1: I try to point out to people that Jiji and 403 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:44,520 Speaker 1: Pain's party has about ninety million members and Donald Trump 404 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 1: got sixty three million votes. So I think people tend 405 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 1: to oversimplify the relationship between the Chinese people and the 406 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 1: Communist Party. We tend to there are kind of tinpot 407 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 1: dictators out there that only care about enriching themselves and 408 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,199 Speaker 1: don't care about the future of their countries, and the 409 00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,639 Speaker 1: only reason they manage to stay in power is because 410 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 1: of the repression of their people. That's not exactly what's 411 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: going on here in China. I mean, the first thing 412 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,879 Speaker 1: I've never met she Jamping myself. But my sense in 413 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 1: studying elite politics is that of course these individuals want power, 414 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 1: they want influence, they want wealth, but they also really 415 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,399 Speaker 1: do care about the future of China. They want to 416 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 1: see China continue to rise, continue to prosper, and to 417 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:30,880 Speaker 1: become powerful on the global stage. And that this message 418 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,879 Speaker 1: she Jimping in particular, has highlighted the global role and 419 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,879 Speaker 1: the respect the world will have for China. This is 420 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,719 Speaker 1: something actually that the United States and China has in common. 421 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 1: That we both think that we're exceptional and that our 422 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 1: histories make it so that our rightful place is at top. 423 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 1: Next we'll discuss what the United States strategy with China 424 00:24:52,160 --> 00:25:03,400 Speaker 1: should be. Ay this is new Gingwich. After I serve 425 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 1: to speaker the house, I opened my own business Gingwidge 426 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,520 Speaker 1: three sixty. As a small business owner, I am profit 427 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:15,400 Speaker 1: focused and budgeting, income, staff, marketing, and sales is key 428 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 1: to my success. As the adage goes, you get what 429 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: you inspect, now what you expect. If you don't know 430 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,520 Speaker 1: your numbers, you don't know your business. But the problem 431 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,680 Speaker 1: growing businesses have that keeps them from knowing their numbers 432 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 1: is their Hodgepidge of business systems. They have one system 433 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:38,679 Speaker 1: for accounting, another for sales, another for inventory, and so on. 434 00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:43,199 Speaker 1: It's just a big inefficient mess taking up too much time. 435 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 1: And too many resources and that hurts the bottom line. 436 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,320 Speaker 1: To solve this problem and streamline your books, looked to 437 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 1: net Suite by Oracle, the business management software that handles 438 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 1: every aspect of your business in an easy to use 439 00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 1: cloud platform, giving you the visible and control you need 440 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:06,640 Speaker 1: to grow. 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Given that they're 449 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,440 Speaker 1: a huge country of billion fornderbillion people approximately and a 450 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:57,320 Speaker 1: country of an enormous work ethic and tremendous organizational skills, 451 00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:58,880 Speaker 1: many of which I think go all the way back 452 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:03,399 Speaker 1: to the original system of examinations and the degree to 453 00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,919 Speaker 1: wish your Confucianism focus on learning and on discipline and 454 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,080 Speaker 1: on hard work Given all of that, what should the 455 00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:14,440 Speaker 1: American strategy be. So my personal viewpoint is I do 456 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:18,399 Speaker 1: like that we have designated China as a strategic competitor. 457 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 1: I think that is correct. You know, they're not an enemy, 458 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,120 Speaker 1: they're not an adversary. I don't think they're like an 459 00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:27,320 Speaker 1: evil empire. I personally think that their ambitions, at least 460 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 1: militarily are relatively limited to the region. That if you 461 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,400 Speaker 1: gave them everything they wanted, if you gave them East China, 462 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,399 Speaker 1: see Self China, see Taiwan, we'd have nothing to fight about. 463 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,280 Speaker 1: But the problem is that that is too much right 464 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,880 Speaker 1: in that puts at jeopardy US interests and the interests 465 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 1: of our allies and partners. It's easy to avoid conflict 466 00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,040 Speaker 1: if you give the other side everything they want. And 467 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 1: so I don't promote that, But it's just to say 468 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 1: that I don't think China on the global stage wants 469 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,560 Speaker 1: to have the power and influenced the veto things that 470 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 1: the United States does that they don't like. But they 471 00:27:57,880 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 1: don't find it necessary to be number one in the 472 00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,920 Speaker 1: Middle at least or in South America. And I wrote 473 00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 1: an article about this for Foreign Affairs in the January 474 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 1: February issue called the Stealth Superpower. And I say this 475 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 1: not that China has limited ambitions, but to be a superpower, 476 00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 1: you don't have to dominate every area of the globe. 477 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 1: Even in the Cold War, the United States didn't dominate 478 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,200 Speaker 1: every area of the globe. You only have to dominate 479 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 1: the most important and dynamic ones. And China has decided 480 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,120 Speaker 1: that that is Asia, and so China is very keen 481 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 1: to be number one in Asia. But I don't think 482 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 1: that extends beyond that. So we are in the strategic competition. 483 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 1: But in my mind, what gives China power and influence 484 00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 1: is it's conferred to them by other countries, by their 485 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,760 Speaker 1: relationship with other countries. And so to compete with China, 486 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,600 Speaker 1: our focus should not be an undermining China, trying to 487 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 1: weaken China, but instead to make ourselves a more attractive 488 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,920 Speaker 1: partner to improve our own power and influence with all 489 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,480 Speaker 1: the other countries in the world. So at one level, 490 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:58,040 Speaker 1: we're almost trapped into having to think about competing with 491 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 1: them worldwide, aren't we. The nature of power changes over time, 492 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 1: and what I'm concerned about in the US approach is 493 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 1: sort of two things. The first is that we assume 494 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 1: China is trying to build an exercise power exactly the 495 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,480 Speaker 1: way that we do, which is what made us so 496 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:17,000 Speaker 1: delayed in realizing that things like One Belt, One Road 497 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:21,760 Speaker 1: were a strategic threat to us, because you building infrastructure 498 00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 1: and the developing world was not on our list of 499 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,840 Speaker 1: indicators of things to look for. I don't think that 500 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 1: we can expect China to do the same things that 501 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 1: we do, so I think we miss a lot because 502 00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:34,479 Speaker 1: we assume, oh, this is the only way to kind 503 00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,600 Speaker 1: of exercise power. So they do want to compete globally, 504 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 1: but they're relying primarily an economic and political means to 505 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 1: do that, and not so much on the military one 506 00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,040 Speaker 1: like the United States does. The United States has to 507 00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 1: think more broadly about what is our comparative advantage to 508 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,000 Speaker 1: counter China or to increase our own influence. We shouldn't 509 00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,000 Speaker 1: be thinking of doing exactly what China does. We have 510 00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 1: different advantages. The United States States to get back in 511 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 1: the business of being also an economic power, because being 512 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,880 Speaker 1: the security partner of choice is no longer good enough. 513 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 1: Given all of this, do you think that the Chinese 514 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:15,160 Speaker 1: Russian dance together is essentially irrelevant from our perspective? Because 515 00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 1: if all we're facing is a regional competitor, that's not 516 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,200 Speaker 1: like to be a zone where the Russians are going 517 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 1: to be able to apply much additional capability than what 518 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:29,080 Speaker 1: the Chinese have. Part of it is about additional capability, 519 00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:33,360 Speaker 1: but it's mostly about horizontal escalation. Asia is the most 520 00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:37,120 Speaker 1: important region in the world. Over half of global GDP 521 00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,440 Speaker 1: is there, two thirds of economic growth is there. The 522 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,000 Speaker 1: majority of the world's population is there, and so at 523 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,040 Speaker 1: one end you can say it's the only regional But 524 00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,520 Speaker 1: on the other hand, I would say, whoever dominates Asia 525 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 1: is a global power, and so it is very, very important. 526 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,480 Speaker 1: And when it comes to Russia and China working together, 527 00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:00,040 Speaker 1: I think the bottom line is there's enough evidence to 528 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,400 Speaker 1: suggest that there might be Russian involvement in contingencies in 529 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 1: support of China, even if it's minimal, that we have 530 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:10,400 Speaker 1: to start mapping that out. But looking at how that 531 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 1: would complicate US military operations. Is it that there are 532 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:18,040 Speaker 1: certain capabilities that Russia can provide to China that are 533 00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,440 Speaker 1: problematic or is it just that if we fight China, 534 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,920 Speaker 1: then we're fighting both China and Russia technically, and that 535 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,920 Speaker 1: kind of horizontal excoration it's problematic. I think at this 536 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 1: point we haven't really sought it through enough, and so 537 00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,440 Speaker 1: in our sort of read teaming war gaming tabletop exercises, 538 00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:36,760 Speaker 1: we always should kind of have now a Russia component 539 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 1: of like, well, how could Russia complicate or operation of 540 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 1: the South China see how could they complicate our ability 541 00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:46,280 Speaker 1: to protect the Sinkaku Islands with Japan of China tacks 542 00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,960 Speaker 1: our ability to protect Taiwan. So I think that's the 543 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 1: first step, and then we can come to some sort 544 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 1: of assessment about what the main problems are with that 545 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,480 Speaker 1: type of security cooperation and the best way to counter 546 00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:01,200 Speaker 1: in I'm really delight you had spend so much time 547 00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:05,840 Speaker 1: with us. Well, thank you. Next I'm joined by Hermann Perschner, 548 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 1: founder of the American Foreign Policy Council. I was delighted 549 00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:20,240 Speaker 1: when the first sponsor of newts World was Oxford Gold Group. 550 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 1: I love entrepreneurial startups of people who are eager, willing 551 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,880 Speaker 1: to go out and do new and different things. 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In a flash, 561 00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,600 Speaker 1: millions of hard working Americans lost more than half of 562 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:04,000 Speaker 1: their retirement in savings. Many of us still haven't recovered 563 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:07,160 Speaker 1: those losses, even as the stock market reached record highs. 564 00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,280 Speaker 1: Did you know that while the stock market crashed, the 565 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:14,000 Speaker 1: price of gold and silver skyrocketed. In fact, investors who 566 00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 1: had the foresight to diversify a portion of their retirement 567 00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,760 Speaker 1: in savings before the two thousand and eight meltdown watched 568 00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:21,960 Speaker 1: as the price of gold and silver went up over 569 00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:25,640 Speaker 1: three hundred percent. While millions of Americans lost their nest 570 00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,320 Speaker 1: eggs in the stock market, many others were able to 571 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:31,840 Speaker 1: make gains most people had never seen before. Call the 572 00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,400 Speaker 1: Oxford Gold Group today at one eight three, three three 573 00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:39,920 Speaker 1: two seven nine four seven two, or visit Oxford Goldgroup 574 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 1: dot com slash newts World and request your free Investor's 575 00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,640 Speaker 1: Guide Investing in Precious Metals with the Oxford Gold Group 576 00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 1: is safe and secure. We tailor investment packages to suit 577 00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:54,320 Speaker 1: any portfolio. Don't risk the future of your IRA four 578 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:58,240 Speaker 1: oh one k or savings on paper investments. Protect your 579 00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 1: retirement in savings with physical sets like gold and silver. 580 00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,920 Speaker 1: Nobody knows when the next financial crisis will happen. Get 581 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:08,200 Speaker 1: prepared by talking to the Oxford Gold Group by calling 582 00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:12,200 Speaker 1: one eight three three three two seven nine four seven two, 583 00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:16,240 Speaker 1: or by visiting Oxford Goldgroup dot com slash news World 584 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:28,920 Speaker 1: Financial security is just a phone call away. Herman Parsner 585 00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,239 Speaker 1: is the founder of the American Foreign Policy Council and 586 00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:36,280 Speaker 1: a longtime friend. Describe for us the mission the American 587 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 1: Foreign Policy Council. Our mission is to provide primary source 588 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:44,880 Speaker 1: information to those who make or influence the national security 589 00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:48,480 Speaker 1: policy of the United States. To that end, we travel 590 00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:53,640 Speaker 1: abroad a lot, building deep relationships in many places. How 591 00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:56,719 Speaker 1: often have you been in Russia. I've been in the 592 00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:03,960 Speaker 1: former Soviet Union seventy times and probably Russia sixty five times. Maybe. 593 00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,919 Speaker 1: How often have you been in China at least once 594 00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,840 Speaker 1: a year since nineteen ninety four? How do you see 595 00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 1: the evolution of the relationship between China and Russia. Well, 596 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:21,080 Speaker 1: it's gotten much closer. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, 597 00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:25,000 Speaker 1: Russia and China both needed peace, so they demilitarize the 598 00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:29,160 Speaker 1: border in both sides. China began to get not just 599 00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:33,520 Speaker 1: raw materials but military technology from Russia, and since then 600 00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,759 Speaker 1: the relationship has blossomed. And there are some people now 601 00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:41,279 Speaker 1: that make the case that there's a de facto military 602 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:46,000 Speaker 1: alliance between Russia and China. And I think in the 603 00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:50,560 Speaker 1: short term cooperation between Russian and China could cause us 604 00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 1: some problems and maybe even big problems. But I think 605 00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,839 Speaker 1: it's not a durable relationship at all. There's more than 606 00:35:57,880 --> 00:35:59,960 Speaker 1: a little bit of reason to think there will be 607 00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:05,000 Speaker 1: a rupture between Russia and China, especially over the territory 608 00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:09,640 Speaker 1: of Eastern Siberian the Russian Far East, which Chinese historically 609 00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:14,320 Speaker 1: owned and still covered. China control that territory up until 610 00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,640 Speaker 1: eighteen fifty eight. In eighteen sixty, and they did so 611 00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:22,439 Speaker 1: by treaty with Russia, who had aspirations there. But we're 612 00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:26,360 Speaker 1: defeated in the war with China in the seventeenth century. 613 00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,080 Speaker 1: What you see with the Chinese example in the South 614 00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:35,200 Speaker 1: China Sea is a dramatically bigger strategic undertaking where with 615 00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:39,200 Speaker 1: much greater implications for the United States to the ability 616 00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,279 Speaker 1: to choke off or intimidate trade that goes through the 617 00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:46,960 Speaker 1: South China Sea is a big, big deal, and it's 618 00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:52,560 Speaker 1: very important that our freedom of navigation exercises continued. How 619 00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,040 Speaker 1: do you see Putin evolving and how long do you 620 00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:58,879 Speaker 1: think he can plausibly stay in power? We did an 621 00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:02,920 Speaker 1: interesting study of American Foreign Policy Council of one hundred 622 00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:06,680 Speaker 1: and twenty seven post World War two dictators of ten 623 00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:11,960 Speaker 1: million or more, twenty percent were assassinated, forty two percent 624 00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:15,680 Speaker 1: were kicked out by a coup like Khrushchev or Gorbachev. 625 00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:20,200 Speaker 1: And if you're a dictator and you look at those numbers, 626 00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:24,359 Speaker 1: you understand that your future is not assured at all. 627 00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,880 Speaker 1: And as dictators stay a long time, there tends to 628 00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:33,239 Speaker 1: be more internal oppression and more external aggression. So I 629 00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:38,120 Speaker 1: think as long as you have Putin in power, Russia 630 00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:42,680 Speaker 1: is going to be a problem, not just for strategic reasons, 631 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:46,480 Speaker 1: but also because of Putin's need to stay in power. 632 00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:50,400 Speaker 1: He's no word nearest popular as he seems to be internally. 633 00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,440 Speaker 1: Is he still there ten years from now? And is 634 00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:56,319 Speaker 1: there any sense in all of a succession better. You know, 635 00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,560 Speaker 1: in China, if she would fall from power, you still 636 00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:04,600 Speaker 1: have Communist Party that has very well organized and will 637 00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:08,160 Speaker 1: continue to roll, and we'll have somebody very capable that 638 00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:12,240 Speaker 1: will replace him through an orderly process. If Putin goes, 639 00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:16,160 Speaker 1: there is no process, There is no party, there is 640 00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:20,800 Speaker 1: no structure other than structure that's totally unique to Putin. 641 00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,279 Speaker 1: When he goes, it may collapse and you may have 642 00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:27,600 Speaker 1: a prolonged power struggle. It's very hard to get across 643 00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:32,240 Speaker 1: to Americans the scale and the context of the Chinese 644 00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:37,640 Speaker 1: Communist Party. The party controls everything. It's absolutely a leninous 645 00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:42,040 Speaker 1: power system. And the efforts that were made at the 646 00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:46,480 Speaker 1: time a tanim and square to diversify power within that system. 647 00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:52,200 Speaker 1: We're beaten back, and the hardliner's sense have had increasing sway, 648 00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:56,480 Speaker 1: and since then you've seen those that want to centralize 649 00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:59,799 Speaker 1: power like she becomes stronger. I mean, just to think 650 00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:04,400 Speaker 1: of today, he's moving away from a successful economic model. 651 00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:09,440 Speaker 1: State owned enterprises are getting more in favor than private companies. 652 00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:13,200 Speaker 1: If you operate a private company in China, you're now 653 00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:16,520 Speaker 1: forced to have members of the Communist Party on your 654 00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:20,319 Speaker 1: board of directors. If you attend even the official church 655 00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:23,880 Speaker 1: is not talking to underground churches, you're forced to sing 656 00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:28,640 Speaker 1: Communist Party songs during your church service. Centralization of power 657 00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:32,359 Speaker 1: is ongoing in China, and it remains to be seen 658 00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:36,080 Speaker 1: to what degree there will be a reaction from other 659 00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:41,280 Speaker 1: parts of the Communist Party to chis continual path. Ninety 660 00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,360 Speaker 1: million members of the Chinese Commnist Party have a pretty 661 00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:48,280 Speaker 1: fair number who actually think they might achieve a better future, 662 00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:52,760 Speaker 1: that the system might work. I think morale and China 663 00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:56,480 Speaker 1: is high. I think many of them believe their system 664 00:39:56,840 --> 00:40:01,040 Speaker 1: is exportable. The big on knowing is what will happen 665 00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:05,200 Speaker 1: with the generational shift you have now For some decades, 666 00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:09,560 Speaker 1: the brightest minds in China, the people that are the 667 00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:13,120 Speaker 1: sons and daughters of the party elite, have studied in 668 00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:16,800 Speaker 1: the US, have studied in England, have studied in Australia, 669 00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:21,800 Speaker 1: and this has left a big impression on them, as 670 00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:25,759 Speaker 1: has the growth of material well being in China. And 671 00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:29,799 Speaker 1: if you talk to them, you understand that culturally there's 672 00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:32,680 Speaker 1: a big gap between them and those that are running 673 00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,719 Speaker 1: the show. Now what that cultural gap will mean in 674 00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:40,200 Speaker 1: terms of policy when generations march through the institutions, and 675 00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:43,400 Speaker 1: when they control China, I think as an unknown I 676 00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,279 Speaker 1: wouldn't even hazard a guess. The only thing I know 677 00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:49,280 Speaker 1: for sure is it will be different because they are different. 678 00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:53,520 Speaker 1: The American Foreign Policy Council is an amazing institution. I'm 679 00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,640 Speaker 1: just really delighted that you could take the time and 680 00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,239 Speaker 1: be with us to have this discussion. I look forward 681 00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,960 Speaker 1: as always to seeing you again. It's always a pleasure 682 00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:09,120 Speaker 1: to be with you. The emerging relationship between China and 683 00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:13,440 Speaker 1: Russia has to be a major concern from American defense planners. 684 00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,960 Speaker 1: The fact is that each of those countries thinks that 685 00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:20,200 Speaker 1: they have more in danger from US than from each other. 686 00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:24,200 Speaker 1: What once was a historic enmity between Russia or the 687 00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:28,560 Speaker 1: Soviet Union and China, partly because Imperial Russia had stolen 688 00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:31,640 Speaker 1: much of Siberia from China, has been replaced by a 689 00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,320 Speaker 1: deeper sense that the real threat is the United States, 690 00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,440 Speaker 1: that we are, as the KGB used to say, the 691 00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:42,080 Speaker 1: main enemy, and therefore they're working together. They're finding ways 692 00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:46,440 Speaker 1: to cooperate. They're cooperating, for example, in Venezuela, they're cooperating 693 00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:50,640 Speaker 1: with military operations. They've actually recently had a very large 694 00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:54,360 Speaker 1: training program, one of the biggest they've had in recent years, 695 00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:59,560 Speaker 1: with Russian and Chinese troops working together on a common battlefield. 696 00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:03,680 Speaker 1: Who have to recognize that if this develops and continues 697 00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:07,600 Speaker 1: to evolve, partially driven by our behavior. We've been very 698 00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:11,000 Speaker 1: tough on the Russians over Crimea, We've been very tough 699 00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:14,479 Speaker 1: with the Russians over Eastern Ukraine. We've had all sorts 700 00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:19,880 Speaker 1: of sanctions, a lot of candidly brought on by the Russians. Nonetheless, Putin, 701 00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:24,600 Speaker 1: who is a KGB trained agent whose grandfather was the 702 00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:28,359 Speaker 1: chief cook for both Lenin and Stalin, has come from 703 00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:31,960 Speaker 1: a background where he hates the United States. He's always 704 00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:34,800 Speaker 1: hated the United States, and he said publicly the greatest 705 00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,319 Speaker 1: tragedy of the twentieth century was the collapse of the 706 00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,800 Speaker 1: Soviet Empire. So he looks around, he wants an ally. 707 00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,960 Speaker 1: He knows that Russia is not strong enough by itself 708 00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:45,440 Speaker 1: to take on the United States. But what if he 709 00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:48,399 Speaker 1: can develop a relationship with Jiji. Now at the same time, 710 00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,440 Speaker 1: Jijing pain is saying, Gosh, I can get natural gas 711 00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:54,360 Speaker 1: from Russia, I can get raw material from Russia. We 712 00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:57,640 Speaker 1: can develop a joint arms program. We can collaborate in 713 00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:01,239 Speaker 1: a variety of places, and I think that any American 714 00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:05,000 Speaker 1: planner looking down the road who is not planning for 715 00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:09,680 Speaker 1: a potential Russian Chinese alliance is making a huge mistake. 716 00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,840 Speaker 1: And frankly, as somebody studies us a lot, if we 717 00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:15,680 Speaker 1: are faced with a Russian Chinese alliance, it is going 718 00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:19,520 Speaker 1: to be very, very hard for us to win that confrontation. 719 00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:22,879 Speaker 1: So I think it's a very important to recognize that 720 00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,799 Speaker 1: this question is one of the central questions of the 721 00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:29,239 Speaker 1: next twenty five years, and that it has huge implications 722 00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:37,320 Speaker 1: for how American national security evolves. In my new book, 723 00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:42,640 Speaker 1: Trump Versus China, Facing America's Greatest Threat, I describe in 724 00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:46,719 Speaker 1: detail the new era of competition with communist rule of 725 00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:50,760 Speaker 1: China that the United States now faces. It impacts every 726 00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:54,520 Speaker 1: American and it is important to understand and recognize how 727 00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,040 Speaker 1: we got to where we are today and what we 728 00:43:57,120 --> 00:44:00,120 Speaker 1: must do as a country to survive. I encourage you 729 00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:04,359 Speaker 1: to pick up a copy of Trump Versus China available now. 730 00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:13,279 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guests doctor Oriana Skylar Mastro and 731 00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:17,040 Speaker 1: Hermann Pershner. You can learn more about the China Russia 732 00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:22,200 Speaker 1: strategic alliance on our show page at Newtsworld dot com. 733 00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:26,360 Speaker 1: Newtsworld is produced by Westwood One. Our executive producer is 734 00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:30,400 Speaker 1: Debbie Myers and our producer is Gornsey Slow. Our editor 735 00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:35,120 Speaker 1: is Robert Borowski, and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. Our 736 00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:38,600 Speaker 1: guest booker is Grace Davis. The artwork for the show 737 00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:42,799 Speaker 1: was created by Steve Penley. The music was composed by 738 00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:46,720 Speaker 1: Joey Salvia. Special thanks the team at Gingwish three sixty 739 00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:51,680 Speaker 1: and Westwood Ones, John Wardock and Robert Mothers. Please email 740 00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:55,560 Speaker 1: me with your comments at newt at newtsworld dot com. 741 00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:58,120 Speaker 1: If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to 742 00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:01,640 Speaker 1: Apple Podcast and both wait us with five stars and 743 00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:04,600 Speaker 1: give us a review so others can learn what it's 744 00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:09,879 Speaker 1: all about. On the next episode of news World, it's 745 00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:12,359 Speaker 1: been thirty years since the fall of the Berlin Wall 746 00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:16,520 Speaker 1: in November nineteen eighty nine, and we're joined by President 747 00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:19,719 Speaker 1: Reagan's speechwriter, Peter M. Robinson. We would often go into 748 00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:22,440 Speaker 1: these meetings the question prepared that you could ask, so 749 00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:25,320 Speaker 1: I explained to him, mister President, I learned in Berlin 750 00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:28,520 Speaker 1: that they'll be able to hear your remarks on the 751 00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:33,480 Speaker 1: other side of the wall, the communist side throughout East Berlin, certainly, 752 00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:35,920 Speaker 1: and if the weather conditions are just right, they'll be 753 00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:37,719 Speaker 1: able to pick it up by radio all the way 754 00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:40,840 Speaker 1: to Moscow. Is there anything in particular you'd like to 755 00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,800 Speaker 1: say to people on the communist side of the wall. 756 00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:47,719 Speaker 1: And Ron Reagan's thought for a moment, and he gave 757 00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:52,000 Speaker 1: his head that little shake, and he said, well, I'd 758 00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:54,080 Speaker 1: like to tell them that that wall has to come down. 759 00:45:54,760 --> 00:46:00,239 Speaker 1: Mister Gerbatcheff teared down this wall. I'm new Gang, which 760 00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:12,360 Speaker 1: this is News World, the Westwood one podcast network.