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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen. And always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Joining us

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Speaker 2: right now. He's always able to rip up the script.

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Speaker 2: Is William Lee, definitive at the IMF. He's the chief

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Speaker 2: economist from mister Milkin out at the Milkin Institute.

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Speaker 3: They're soare coming up, you know?

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Speaker 4: Is that right?

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Speaker 3: It's great?

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Speaker 2: Okay. They give me a corner room at the Beverly

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Speaker 2: Hills Hotel.

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Speaker 5: Yep, little Kambas Suite.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going this year, but you know there it

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Speaker 2: is Billy, chief economist at Milkin.

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Speaker 3: And only with Bill Lee can I rip up the script.

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Speaker 2: Is Three hours ago a video came out of Ambassador

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Speaker 2: Nicholas Burns of Swellesley, Massachusetts, and one the Secretary of

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Speaker 2: Treasury Janet Yelling Yep and Bill Lee. There at the

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Speaker 2: Jinger Brewing Company, opened in twenty twelve by Alex Aker

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Speaker 2: and Christian Lee. It's a micro brewery in Beijing. And

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Speaker 2: we're down to our export import policy in trade with China.

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Speaker 2: Billy of discussing American hops in a beer in Beijing.

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Speaker 2: How desperate are we in our policy now with China

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Speaker 2: or is it cogent and cohesive?

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Speaker 6: Well, the real question is how testper of the Chinese

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Speaker 6: with their inport export policies. They know they can't live

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Speaker 6: without the United States, but they want to have the

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Speaker 6: United States come to them on their terms. You know,

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Speaker 6: for every story that we hear about how the Chinese

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Speaker 6: economy is reviving, there are stories that we also hear

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Speaker 6: that don't match up with the official data. Iconic places

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Speaker 6: on Nanjing Road in Shanghai that have long been establishments

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Speaker 6: that serve the elites of business. Yes on the shutdown

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Speaker 6: because there's no business and they really need to have

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Speaker 6: our input export policies in place because they need stuff

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Speaker 6: from the United States just as much as the United

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Speaker 6: States need stuff.

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Speaker 2: You were expert at disbility, and I know Hong Kong

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Speaker 2: gets all the attention and the emotion of the British

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Speaker 2: and that, but you just zeroed in on Shanghai.

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Speaker 3: Are we looking for a jump condition change from Beijing

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Speaker 3: to say, okay, we didn't mean it, let's get back

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Speaker 3: to business or is this some slow motion incremental soap opera.

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Speaker 6: In fact, the jump condition I'm actually seeing is that

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Speaker 6: for you know, a lot of people say, you know,

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Speaker 6: the secondary cities are not doing so well, but that's okay,

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Speaker 6: because the primary cities of Shanghai, Shenzan, Guangzhou, those are

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Speaker 6: the places where businesses are really booming and they're doing fine.

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Speaker 6: And that's what the official storyline has been, and every

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Speaker 6: official meeting you see that the Chinese authorities upheld have

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Speaker 6: peddled that story. But the story on the ground, when

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Speaker 6: you look at the shopping malls in these elite places,

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Speaker 6: they're not doing well. I have some friends who are

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Speaker 6: trying to sell property in some of the prime places

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Speaker 6: in Beijing, and they're starting off with bids that are

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Speaker 6: thirty forty percent off their asking price, and even there

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Speaker 6: they're not getting much activity. So the situation on the

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Speaker 6: ground with the people who live there and the people

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Speaker 6: who are doing businesses there, is really quite different from

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Speaker 6: the official picture.

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Speaker 5: And Bill, I think what a lot of our listeners

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Speaker 5: and viewers like myself are probably confused about. We see

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Speaker 5: a very hard line coming from China. It seems like

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Speaker 5: by and large as it relates to their view of capitalism.

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Speaker 5: I just think about, you know, kind of how they

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Speaker 5: dealt with the technology industry for years ago in Alibob

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Speaker 5: and all those companies. Yet at the same time we

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Speaker 5: see leading US executives Tim Cook, the fella from Tesla,

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Speaker 5: going over to China and trying to maintain and develop

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Speaker 5: ties there. Where does a government really want to take

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Speaker 5: this thing?

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Speaker 6: President she has a campaign to what he's trying to

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Speaker 6: put in what he calls new productive forces into the

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Speaker 6: Chinese economy that will push them into the bleeding edge,

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Speaker 6: the leading edge of technology. The most important industries will

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Speaker 6: be the high tech industries, the high value added industry,

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Speaker 6: so that the declining population in China will be having

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Speaker 6: occupations and jobs that are in high salary occupations. What

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Speaker 6: we are seeing in reality is that they really can't

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Speaker 6: get this stuff in place without first reviving the Chinese economy.

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Speaker 6: You can't get that kind of technological change and productivity

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Speaker 6: change with an economy that is in the doldrooms and

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Speaker 6: with GDP growth. Much as the official numbers are, you know,

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Speaker 6: five plus, the actual numbers are closer to three plus.

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Speaker 5: So should we expect or should I guess, you know,

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Speaker 5: American and Western CEOs expect any meaningful change in the

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Speaker 5: next several years here, because again it seems like the

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Speaker 5: US and the West is we're in a pretty strong

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Speaker 5: position visa in China just in terms of negotiating leverage.

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Speaker 6: That's a very important point, Paul. The current businesses that

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Speaker 6: are there in China are realizing that President She's new

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Speaker 6: China is going to involve a lot more in the

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Speaker 6: way of state enterprises being in the in the driver's seat.

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Speaker 6: The smaller private sector companies are asked to merge with

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Speaker 6: their counterparts on the official side. So everyone that's doing

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Speaker 6: business there knows they have to curry the favor of

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Speaker 6: local authorities because that's where their new contracts are coming from.

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Speaker 6: And I think you're seeing Tim Cook go over there

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Speaker 6: opening up a new branch, a new Apple store, probably

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Speaker 6: one of the biggest in Asia in Shanghai. But the

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Speaker 6: same time that same shopping mall is seeing sorece closed

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Speaker 6: left and right, you know, as private businesses are starving

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Speaker 6: for business. So I think the new mantra for businesses

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Speaker 6: going into China would be, you know, help the state

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Speaker 6: down enterprises become more efficient, do whatever managerial magic you

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Speaker 6: can to help to have them come up in productivity.

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Speaker 2: But is sanctity of contracts still valid versus joint venture

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Speaker 2: tragedies of recent decades.

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Speaker 6: As as you know, Tom, the sanctity of contracts in

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Speaker 6: China depends upon who you know in the judicial system

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Speaker 6: and whether or not you are currying the favor and

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Speaker 6: your policies are in line with those of the Communist

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Speaker 6: Party vision of where China is going. If you're helping

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Speaker 6: Chinese companies promote their activities, your contracts will be enforced

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Speaker 6: full force. If you are hitting off on your own

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Speaker 6: and trying to carve out a share of the Chinese

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Speaker 6: market for yourself without involving the Chinese state owned enterprises,

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Speaker 6: the art contracts are likely not going to be held if.

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Speaker 2: They're finally to a more manufacturing value add higher wage

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Speaker 2: industrial proposition. Where is the old China now is it

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Speaker 2: in Vietnam. Is there a certain geography that is doing

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Speaker 2: the old China?

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Speaker 6: You know, the President she wants a lot of the

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Speaker 6: low value AED industries to move out of China because

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Speaker 6: he wants to highlight those high tech, high value added

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Speaker 6: sectors in China and develop them further. But one of

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Speaker 6: the things that we all know is that as in

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Speaker 6: China right now, is that inflection point where they have

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Speaker 6: to promote the service sector. And you know, to promote

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Speaker 6: the service sector, that means you have to have strong

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Speaker 6: domestic demand. You're not going to get that when people's

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Speaker 6: wages are uncertain, the property values have dropped in seventy

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Speaker 6: percent of their household wealth is in danger of crashing

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Speaker 6: and burning. So I think the policies that have to

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Speaker 6: be put in place by the Chinese government would be

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Speaker 6: to put in a safety net to assure people that

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Speaker 6: their retirement is secure, so that they can actually start

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Speaker 6: to spend more freely with the security of knowing that

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Speaker 6: they have income in their old age. That's one of

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Speaker 6: the first principles I think that would be helpful for

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Speaker 6: the Chinese economy and to revive economy in the direction

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Speaker 6: that President She wants to go.

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Speaker 3: Bill.

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Speaker 5: If someone comes up to you at your renowned conference

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Speaker 5: and says, Bill, I think China is uninvestable, what's your response.

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Speaker 6: I think that that's a naive view. I've often heard

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Speaker 6: that said. You can invest in China and invest in

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Speaker 6: China very successfully if you follow the new principles of

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Speaker 6: investing in China, which is promote the state, promote the

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Speaker 6: state goals of improving the Chinese economy. If you have

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Speaker 6: that in mind and find projects like that, you're really

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Speaker 6: in good shape. Now. One of the problems of actually

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Speaker 6: implementing that in real life is due diligence. The Chinese

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Speaker 6: have made it incredibly difficult for investors to find out

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Speaker 6: what are the viable investment projects that they can invest

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Speaker 6: in without being told to put money in particular places.

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Speaker 6: And that's the tension, is that the private investor just

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Speaker 6: can't find their own means to verify things without relying

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Speaker 6: on state information.

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Speaker 2: Billy, I got ten more questions. We're not going to

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Speaker 2: give to them. We're out of time. William Lee, thank

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Speaker 2: you so much. Always brilliant on the Pacific Round, and

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Speaker 2: now it's a popular acclaim. She was on with us

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Speaker 2: a number of weeks ago and a huge response to Victoria,

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Speaker 2: Bill's chief investment strategists at Bannery and Capital Chicago, and

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Speaker 2: in your note, the note's great, Victoria, but there's only

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Speaker 2: one thing to talk about, shortage of bitdog atf Madness

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Speaker 2: And am I right, Victoria? You're framing out up forty

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Speaker 2: thousand dollars on bitdog to one hundred thousand plus?

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Speaker 3: Is that true? Absolutely?

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Speaker 7: If we're thinking about the factors that are coming into play,

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Speaker 7: and thanks again for having me on. We're seeing a

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Speaker 7: lot of kind of continued traction that's coming into the

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Speaker 7: market because of the upcoming having that's happening in April,

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Speaker 7: and we already saw an uptick in bitcoin pricing because

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Speaker 7: of the introduction of the spot etf earlier this year,

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Speaker 7: which drove the price close to almost like over seventy thousand.

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Speaker 7: So we can honestly expect, with the decrease of supply

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Speaker 7: that's now coming into the market for bitcoin on top

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Speaker 7: of that very out out paced demand that we can

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Speaker 7: actually expect over one hundred k and pricing by end

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Speaker 7: of year.

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Speaker 5: Wow, end of year, and Tom, we're kind of on

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Speaker 5: our way there. Today we're up four percent. Bitcoin is

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Speaker 5: seventy two. So back up to those rare.

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Speaker 3: Fights of silence from Michael McLoone exactly. I mean he's

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Speaker 3: down there on.

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Speaker 2: The deck at the at the the Bethany whatever it is,

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Speaker 2: the hotel.

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Speaker 5: Maybe the Delano. He might break the Delano.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, you know he's like huge yep.

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Speaker 5: So, I mean he's been calling it so Victoria aside

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Speaker 5: from bitcoin because I still can't get Jamie Diamond to

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Speaker 5: you know, give it the stamp of approval though he

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Speaker 5: is all into AI. So on the AI front, which

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Speaker 5: is a subject to Jamie Diamonds or partly subject in

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Speaker 5: Jamie Diamond's letter today. In video, is that still the

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Speaker 5: way for investors to play AI or there other ways?

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Speaker 5: How do you guys think about that?

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Speaker 7: I think that in video is definitely the way to

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Speaker 7: pay pay through AI. We're thinking about what has to

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Speaker 7: go into these AI language learning models. There's also need

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Speaker 7: there's high computing and graphic processing that's necessary in order

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Speaker 7: to create these large processing models, but also to pivot

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Speaker 7: back to bitcoin, it's also a necessity when it comes

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Speaker 7: to bitcoin mining. So we're going to see a huge

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Speaker 7: uptick in the demand for in via GPU ships as well,

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Speaker 7: which are top of the line when it comes to mining,

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Speaker 7: but also top of the line when it comes to

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Speaker 7: graphic processing and also informational processing, which is absolutely critical

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Speaker 7: when it comes to AI. So Nvidia is the number

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Speaker 7: one player, and I'm so sorry for everyone who keeps

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Speaker 7: trying to short it. I can't find the reason for

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Speaker 7: it to go down.

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Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I want to ask another intelligent question here

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Speaker 2: because I can't do it.

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Speaker 3: But you go to the heart of the matter.

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Speaker 2: Victoria Bills is saying, forget about the value trap, forget

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Speaker 2: about straw hats and winter climb on board. The winners

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Speaker 2: discuss that strategy.

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Speaker 7: It's as simple as what we're seeing in the future,

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Speaker 7: the future of Web three going into Web four, the

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Speaker 7: necessity around AI in terms of increased productivity, and how

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Speaker 7: that plays into again, all of the large processes that

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Speaker 7: are coming into the market these days are more of

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Speaker 7: the innovative technologies. What is required to process AI, what

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Speaker 7: is required to actually create these systems is large computing

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Speaker 7: process is large sets of computing process and data. So

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Speaker 7: when we think about the players that are ahead of

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Speaker 7: the game and the players that are actually benefiting from

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Speaker 7: getting into this space very early on. That's how Nvidio

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Speaker 7: was able to make themselves a player. And then even

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Speaker 7: with super process like like as super small computer, super

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Speaker 7: smart computer. Sorry I was blinking out the name super smart.

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Speaker 3: Like super small computers.

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Speaker 7: That's super small computer as well. They have been a

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Speaker 7: leaders when it leader in the game when it comes

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Speaker 7: to just that data information processing. Now some of the

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Speaker 7: drawbacks to that, of course, is what's going to happen

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Speaker 7: when it comes to climate change these like it's a

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Speaker 7: lot of energy that it takes to again process all of.

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Speaker 2: This very well, Paul, I'm looking at in video seventy

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Speaker 2: three PE multiple one year forward. It's a thirty six

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Speaker 2: p multiple. It's as simple as is, Folks, I've never seen.

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Speaker 5: That I've never seen ever seen, and that's tom you know,

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Speaker 5: a cup and earning its way into its multiple, I

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Speaker 5: guess is kind of what we're seeing there.

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Speaker 2: So a victory.

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Speaker 5: In addition to the technology names, I know you guys

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Speaker 5: also have a healthcare bent Novartis. Why is that on

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Speaker 5: your list?

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Speaker 7: Well, Nevarda's has an amazing track record when it comes

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Speaker 7: to what the work that they're doing in clinical trials.

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Speaker 7: I'm also very bullish on kind of a lot of

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Speaker 7: the information that we're seeing nowadays with people being very

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Speaker 7: conscient just around their health, whether that's weight loss or

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Speaker 7: weight gain, planning, trying to make certain like people are

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Speaker 7: looking forward to trying to stay as young as possible,

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Speaker 7: and so a lot of the healthcare names that we're

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Speaker 7: looking at are companies that are in those sorts, in

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Speaker 7: those sorts of fields, So Nevarda's being one of them

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Speaker 7: as well.

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Speaker 2: Tell me about this burgeoning sector, Michael Barr listeners, this

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Speaker 2: is important, Victoria Bills. Please tell me about the new

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Speaker 2: sector keeping us as young as possible. How many stocks

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Speaker 2: are Oh yeah, please, Okay.

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Speaker 7: I mean there's there's a couple of names that are

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Speaker 7: going into it, but a lot, it's more a lot

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Speaker 7: of research that's going into trying to figure out generatively

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Speaker 7: how we can continue to keep people looking younger, healthier,

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Speaker 7: whether that's again through diet and exercising, through consumer based

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Speaker 7: product companies, or again, like if we're looking on the

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Speaker 7: healthcare side, so companies that are looking to basically, like

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Speaker 7: for lack of a better word, figure out how to

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Speaker 7: recreate a human. So a lot of.

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Speaker 2: Victoria, thank you for working on recreating a human. Victoria

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Speaker 2: bills in Chicago, Cutt and shiseled.

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Speaker 3: Thank you. This is a joy because he's beyond qualified.

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Speaker 2: Right now, everyone is pontificating about private equity, private credit.

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Speaker 2: Someone with some actual experience in the risks involved, Hugh

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Speaker 2: von steinis joins us. He's at Oliver Wyman right now,

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Speaker 2: but with a deserve or zummy United Kingdom of excellence,

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Speaker 2: including assisting Oxford University in the management of their money.

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Speaker 2: Hugh von steinas, I'm going to cut to the chase

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Speaker 2: with your lovely photo of Mark Rowan of Apollo and

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Speaker 2: your note private credit will trigger a new squeeze. That's

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Speaker 2: powerful language of you von Steina's what do you mean?

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Speaker 4: Well?

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Speaker 3: Thanks?

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Speaker 4: Something on again, Tom, Look, I think there's a couple

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Speaker 4: of squeezes. I mean the first and the most obvious

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Speaker 4: one is for the traditional long only firms. More and

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Speaker 4: more money is going to private credit. This expectation it

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Speaker 4: might double over the next four or five years, and

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Speaker 4: therefore more and private credit is either the number one

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Speaker 4: or number two most popular asset to allocate to from

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Speaker 4: high net worth or from institution investors. So I think

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Speaker 4: it's putting a lot of squeeze on traditional fin management.

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Speaker 3: Companies.

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Speaker 4: I think second those as when I look at it,

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Speaker 4: I think there's also a squeeze on the banks. And

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Speaker 4: I think one of the most interesting things to meet

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Speaker 4: Tom and Paul is how the banks have come out

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Speaker 4: of the gates really hard this year. Particularly the really

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Speaker 4: big banks are reopening their wallets to lend into leveraged buyouts.

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Speaker 4: And so you remember last year, you know, the president

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Speaker 4: of Blackstone, John Gray, said that it was a golden moment.

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Speaker 4: What's really interesting to me. I mean, eighty six percent

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Speaker 4: of all LBOs were financed by private credit last year,

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Speaker 4: up from in the fifties and sixties four years earlier.

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Speaker 4: This year, though, twenty seven companies have gone to banks

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Speaker 4: rather than private credit, issuing about eleven and a half

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Speaker 4: billion dollars. And that's taking back about half that what

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Speaker 4: private credit squee got got in twenty twenty three. So

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Speaker 4: there's a really big squeeze going on between the banks

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Speaker 4: and private credit players too.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's kind of where I wanted to go here.

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Speaker 5: I started out my career at the Chase Man Hannen

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Speaker 5: Bank and a media group, and we lent money to

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Speaker 5: companies that forget about having revenue. All they had were airwaves.

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Speaker 5: Think solular telephone companies back in the day, we'd lend

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Speaker 5: them senior credit. We would never let this little brait

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Speaker 5: of business go to any competitor, including this private credit thing.

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Speaker 5: So what of the banks. Why have the banks been

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Speaker 5: so I don't know, not willing to let this business go,

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Speaker 5: but to allow private credit to really flourish.

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Speaker 4: Well, Look, I think, as ever with banks, it's a

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Speaker 4: mixture of things. Number one though is regulation. The regulators

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Speaker 4: didn't want the largest banks to take the riskiest pieces

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Speaker 4: of debt, and whether it's in Europe or in the US,

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Speaker 4: there's been a real focus on the quantity of leverage

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Speaker 4: finance being done by the big banks, and that's why

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Speaker 4: you've seen the shift. It was probably in the sort

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Speaker 4: of fifty to sixty percent before the pandemic, up to

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Speaker 4: as much as eighty six percent last year. But what

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Speaker 4: we're seeing is for investment grade companies, the largest banks

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Speaker 4: are now back in business. For the non investment grade

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Speaker 4: that's still very much going towards private credit. But it's

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Speaker 4: so it's the regulators, but last year as well, it's

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Speaker 4: about risk aversion, you know, on the back of SDB

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Speaker 4: and credits. Suee failing. The banks just drew in their

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Speaker 4: risk appetites, and coming into this year, they realize if

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Speaker 4: they're not their printing business this year, they're not gonna

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Speaker 4: be there in years to come either, because the private

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Speaker 4: credit player will squeeze them out.

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Speaker 3: You over to banking.

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Speaker 2: Can you say, are clear for European banks lack of

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Speaker 2: shock they're doing better for the first time in ages.

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Speaker 2: Can you von Steinas say it's a better place in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty six for European big banks.

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Speaker 4: Look, I think it's a much better environment. Look, the

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Speaker 4: really big problem for Europe was moving into negative interest rates.

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Speaker 4: This is an Alice in Wonderland move that you've spoken

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Speaker 4: about million times before, which crush the earnings of the banks.

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Speaker 4: And as they've come out to sort of more normalized

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Speaker 4: levels of interest rates, the banks are making okayish returns again.

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Speaker 4: Now it's still below where we'd like it to be.

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Speaker 4: But I can see a scenario where European banks get

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Speaker 4: to a eleven to twelve maybe you know, to a

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Speaker 4: return on equity environment. But they're still trading at zero

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Speaker 4: point six point six five times tangible book, almost half

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Speaker 4: where some of the US firms are. So I think

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Speaker 4: there's the interest rate environments there. Look, there are these

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Speaker 4: there are some nerves because the European regulators did stop

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Speaker 4: the banks paying dividends back in the pandemic. But I

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Speaker 4: think these were exceptional circums dances, and we're now seeing

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Speaker 4: a situation where banks are buying back shares, share counts

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Speaker 4: are coming down two to three percent a year much,

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Speaker 4: you know, getting towards the US levels. So I think

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Speaker 4: this is a really interesting environment. And as we spoke

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Speaker 4: about last time, there was something like close to a

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Speaker 4: twelve percent dividend plus buy back yield on the European

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Speaker 4: Banking Index, So we're in there's quite a bit of

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Speaker 4: a risk shield in terms of that that those that

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Speaker 4: can cash pay out.

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Speaker 5: Hugh, can you explain to our listeners and viewers what

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Speaker 5: basil end game is and what it means for the banks.

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Speaker 4: I wish, I wish I could, Paul. Look, so there

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Speaker 4: are so there are bars or the internationally greed rules,

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Speaker 4: and the US was meant to implement the last stage

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Speaker 4: of it, which was the bars lend game. However it

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Speaker 4: got conflated with a whole bunch of other stuff. I mean,

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Speaker 4: you know, there are lessons to be learned from the

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Speaker 4: failure RESCB and the other regional banks, one of which

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Speaker 4: was the deregulation and de supervision of many of these

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Speaker 4: regional banks. And so that's nothing to do with Bar's

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Speaker 4: endgame at all, but got lumped into it. We could

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Speaker 4: probably also say that we're an environment where there's a

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Speaker 4: good piece of work recently showing that uninsured deposits are

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Speaker 4: roughly double today than they were twenty years ago as

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Speaker 4: a potential system. So how do you then think about

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Speaker 4: the risks of liquidity these large ticket uninsured depositors running

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Speaker 4: at digital speeds. So of course rules need to be

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Speaker 4: refined for that. But I think the bars lend game

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Speaker 4: ended up mixing too many pieces, and that's why it's

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Speaker 4: gone back to.

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Speaker 3: The drawing board.

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Speaker 2: You've earned seen us with us, with Oliver Wyman, of course,

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Speaker 2: his service to the United Kingdom, with a Bank of England.

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Speaker 2: He'll von Steinas the diamond letter is out, You'll read

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Speaker 2: every word. I'll read every word, and it goes to

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Speaker 2: the heart of the matter. In a new debate on

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Speaker 2: Global on New York Wall Street, I should say, which

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Speaker 2: is should the chairman and CEO tasks be two individuals

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Speaker 2: where do you stand.

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Speaker 4: Gosh, well, look so maybe I mean even though I

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Speaker 4: was spent a lot of time on Wall Street, obviously

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Speaker 4: I'm based in Europe and where on the whole the

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Speaker 4: chair and the CEO regime is split. That's been working

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Speaker 4: quite well from a good number of companies, and even

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Speaker 4: my old firm woman standing at the moment, are splitting

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Speaker 4: that for a period of time. I think it could

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Speaker 4: be helpful. What I can see is where the chair

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Speaker 4: is providing wise counsel to the CEO and helping them

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Speaker 4: think through the complexities of life. It can be very helpful.

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Speaker 4: But I know that every market has these difference is

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Speaker 4: I think it's useful, but not mission Crystal.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're here. I got time for one more question.

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Speaker 2: It's very important. We were having a huge response on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Are live chat.

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Speaker 2: Hugh von Steina's worldwide that von steinas is so cool.

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Speaker 2: He knows the status small grand piano. Oh is totally

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Speaker 2: second rate to the classy up. No, I mean are

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Speaker 2: you rocking the Beckstein the Boson door over the Shimmel?

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Speaker 3: Which operater you guys rocking?

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Speaker 7: You do?

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Speaker 3: You know what?

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Speaker 4: I'm afraid this one's actually a Yamaha and the reason

436
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 4: is if you want to play really quick trolls, you

437
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 4: need a modern piano because the old ones don't do

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00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 4: really fast music. So me, but for other family members

439
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 4: who play better than I do.

440
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 3: That's why we got it the Yamaha.

441
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 2: I mean it's got a different keyboard. I mean the

442
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 2: Bechstein's Old's cool.

443
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, we looked like my aunt was a constant pianist,

444
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 4: but I'm afraid that she's a little bit better than me.

445
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 3: Okay, you haven't seen this.

446
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 2: With our piano report for the morning, Thank you so

447
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 2: much with Oliver Wineman as well. Now a look at

448
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 2: the front pages.

449
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 5: What's making news around.

450
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 2: The world, Your daily roundup of today's headlines from major publications,

451
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 2: Today's headlines, weekend headlines, too, Shoes, Cheating, Bloomberg, Surveillance, and

452
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,879
Speaker 2: our news headlines with Lisa Matteo. It's brunch you by

453
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Speaker 2: Interactive Brokers Bond Marketplace access their vast selection of over

454
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456
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Speaker 2: dot com slash bonds ibkr dot com slash bonds.

457
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 3: Lisa, what do you have?

458
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 7: All right?

459
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,239
Speaker 1: We're starting with the eclipse. Now, I remember Paul had

460
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: mentioned Buffalo is like one of those key places where

461
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 1: you can see it clearly. Well, Bloomberg actually spoke with

462
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 1: the Buffalo on Niagara, the visit Buffalo Niagara, and they

463
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 1: said that they're calling it the super Bowl or the

464
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 1: Tailor Swift Concert of events, like it's going to be

465
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 1: that big. As many as a million visitors expected to

466
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 1: go to Buffalo. The bars, they're selling tickets to slar

467
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 1: eclips viewing parties. You have breweries having parties, releasing eclipse

468
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 1: themed drafts. Everyone's jumping on board here and speaking of jumping,

469
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 1: skydive the falls, they're offering adrenaline junkies a totality jump,

470
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 1: So if you're up for it, you can, I guess,

471
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 1: grab your glasses and jump off. But I oft nowhere

472
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 1: and enjoy that Wine Country. But the other thing is traffic,

473
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 1: so you have the addround North Country. Troopers are telling

474
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,120
Speaker 1: commuters expect traffic jams of as long as twelve hours,

475
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 1: so it's going to be a little bit crazy.

476
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 2: Over I studied clouds for there's two groups of people,

477
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 2: those that have done a total solar eclipse and those

478
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 2: that have it, and it is completely ancient cosmic.

479
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 3: My major eclipses in Hawaii ninety one, and it is

480
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 3: as built.

481
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 2: All I can say forget about all the touchy feely

482
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 2: stuff for.

483
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,879
Speaker 3: The astronomy that I lived. It is as built. It

484
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 3: is spectacular.

485
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 2: But again, this is up by Buffalo in Rochester. You're

486
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 2: not going to see the same wallap in Central Park

487
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 2: or you know.

488
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 5: Jersey short what else Jersey.

489
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 1: I got to update my glasses now I think I'm

490
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: too late though. All right, So the Wall Street Journal,

491
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: banks and credit card unions, they are turning to anil

492
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: you know nam image like inst college athletes to attract

493
00:25:57,520 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 1: more gen z or so they want to attract the

494
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 1: younger audience because they say the younger audience actually stick

495
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 1: around because changing accounts is too difficult. They don't want

496
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 1: to do it, so once they lock in, they stay.

497
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 1: That means they can also get them sooner for credit

498
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,160
Speaker 1: cards and loans and things like that. But their athletes

499
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 1: are saying that it's helping them kind of budget their money,

500
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 1: learning how to save you have Park Bank and Madison, Wisconsin,

501
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 1: they actually doubled their Instagram engagement after posting a new

502
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: campaign with several local athletes she was concerting. Yeah, so

503
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 1: it's starting to pick up athletes making like six figures.

504
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 1: I mean, you have Caitlin Clark exact, who's bringing in

505
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:33,880
Speaker 1: some good money from.

506
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 5: Things like this, and her WNBA rookie contract would be

507
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 5: like seventy five grand year if she acture does that

508
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 5: in fifteen minutes now with their endorsements.

509
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:41,719
Speaker 3: Okay, why is that?

510
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 2: I mean, I get it in TV, not as some

511
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 2: NBA player is gonna have somebody in these Celtics.

512
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, seventy five grand exactly.

513
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 5: It's unbelievable rookie contract. And it's similarly because they don't

514
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 5: have the TV money yet that's going to change. Next time,

515
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 5: it'll change, It'll change.

516
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 3: I'll just see, you know, apple m I'm coming into.

517
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 2: Straighten that up.

518
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 1: Okay, So Americans, were you at bars party?

519
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 2: No?

520
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 3: I missed it.

521
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 1: I couldn't go. I had another thing and I was

522
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 1: talking with her wife back and forth.

523
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 3: I know, I didn't even know Scarlett was there until

524
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 3: who's here.

525
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 1: I've always wanted to go to Sylvia's though. That's the

526
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 1: other reason why Scarlet.

527
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 3: She loaded up on the catfish.

528
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,159
Speaker 1: Oh catfish, what do you go?

529
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 7: Oh?

530
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 1: Now I'm hungry. All right, thanks a lot Americans. You know,

531
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 1: during the pandemic, everyone bought puppies, right, Well, apparently the

532
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,120
Speaker 1: Better Business Bureau are saying that Americans lost over one

533
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: million dollars last year falling for online puppy adoption scams.

534
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 1: So a lot of people fell for it. There was

535
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 1: a North Carolina grandmother said she lost her life savings

536
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 1: on a Facebook pet scam. She wanted to buy this

537
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 1: Yorkshire terrier for her grandson. But the FTC says, stick

538
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 1: with the local shelters. Look out for them when they're

539
00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 1: asking for unusual payment requests. Look out for that. Better Busines.

540
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 1: If you're saying that about eighty percent of sponsored pet

541
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: advertisments online are possibly fake, so don't fall for it

542
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 1: a lot, Facebook, Marketplace, Craigslist, don't go there to look

543
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: for puppies.

544
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 5: I just ignore it. Just click X, go next one. Yeah,

545
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 5: all right, what else you have for us?

546
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,920
Speaker 1: And finally this new study is showing that work.

547
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 5: This is what I want to do.

548
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 1: Yes, combining business with leisure travel. So bleasure that's on

549
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 1: the rise right now. Yes, that's the new term for it.

550
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 1: The market was just over three hundred and fifteen billion

551
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,959
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, a lot of studies saying can

552
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 1: reach more than seven hundred and thirty one billion by

553
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 1: twenty thirty two. Okay, the reason why post pandemic work

554
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 1: life change, right, So more people are being asked to

555
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 1: go into the office. So now they have to actually

556
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 1: use like a lot more vacation day. So they want

557
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 1: to book it on a little travel deal.

558
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 5: So coming up, Alex Steele and I were taking our

559
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 5: Bloomberg Intelligence show on the road. We're going down to Nashville,

560
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 5: Tennessee for a couple so maybe take a couple of

561
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 5: personal days, go to the Grand Ole Opry, do all

562
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 5: that kind of hement. How cool would that be?

563
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, but there's a problem about that.

564
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 3: He's got the road trip to Nashill.

565
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 2: Yes, it's a perfect time of year, and you and

566
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 2: I are stuck here in forty degrees. What's going on?

567
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 5: Everybody wants you know, Alex steels, she's a star, but

568
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 5: that but that it makes sense.

569
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know, but there was a problem.

570
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 5: You definitely heard that from the hotel operators. They're saying

571
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 5: they're definitely seeing that.

572
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 1: The problem though, is that the company. There's a struggle

573
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 1: for companies to figure out where their legal obligation begins.

574
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 7: And ends for the employer.

575
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 1: So you know, you book your travel with the company,

576
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 1: so are is the company responsible for you? That's around

577
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 1: your leisure part of it. So a lot of companies

578
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: kind of changing their policies.

579
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 3: Lisa, thanks you so much. Greatly appreciate a huge, huge.

580
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 2: Response to our newspaper section. Lisa's in here, I mean

581
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 2: she's in here at six fifty.

582
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 3: Eight doing work on Yeah, she's just starting in on it.

583
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 2: And we do that every day, the newspaper segment yere

584
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 2: at seven forty five. Thank you Interactive Brokers for helping.

585
00:29:58,400 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 3: Us with that.

586
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best

587
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also

588
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast

589
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from

590
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in

591
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 2: New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

592
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio,

593
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.