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Speaker 1: I'm Stacy Marie Ishmael, Managing editor of Crypto for Bloomberg News,

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Speaker 1: And this is Bloomberg Crypto, a daily Bloomberg I Heart podcast.

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Speaker 1: It's Tuesday to line nineteen. As investors around the world

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Speaker 1: grapple the reality of sustained declines and prices across crypto markets,

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Speaker 1: more and more stakeholders are asking the question what's next,

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Speaker 1: and in some cases, who's next. In this episode of

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Crypto, reporter Emily Nicole interviews Alston Zecha, partner at

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Speaker 1: global venture fund eight Roods, for his perspective on how

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Speaker 1: the crypto winter is affecting sentiment and markets. So you

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Speaker 1: probably read the story that we did. It was like

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Speaker 1: the two trillion has been wiped off the crypto market

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Speaker 1: cap since November UM. And one of the initial questions

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Speaker 1: that I posed in that article and that I wanted

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Speaker 1: to put to you more deeply, is about how, um,

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Speaker 1: this crypto winter is different from the ones that we've

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Speaker 1: had in the past. So obviously we had a crypto

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Speaker 1: winter period in and Bitcoin had experienced his own little winters,

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Speaker 1: I guess before that. But what do you think is

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Speaker 1: different this time around? I think this was a classic

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Speaker 1: Minsky bubble or a Minskey moment, which is exuberant over

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Speaker 1: speculation in an asset underpinned by tremendous amounts of over leverage.

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Speaker 1: Minsky moment, a sudden market collapse that follows an extended

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Speaker 1: period of high spending and indebtedness. And I think that

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Speaker 1: is a starting point for a key difference against previous

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Speaker 1: crypto winters, and it starts to look more like dot

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Speaker 1: com bast um to twenty years ago. Maybe even there's

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Speaker 1: some shades of things that happened in the financial crisis,

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Speaker 1: although I don't want to get too grandiose. There are

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Speaker 1: a number of other things that are quite different. And

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Speaker 1: I think when it's re hypothlication of assets, rehypathlication using

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Speaker 1: customer or client said fill your own trading purposes that

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Speaker 1: are denominated in other assets that are also part of

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Speaker 1: this spiraling upwards bubble, this creates an almost infinite loop

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Speaker 1: of self referentiality that helps everybody look good on the

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Speaker 1: way up and really accelerates everything on the way down.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's how I would summarize what's been

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Speaker 1: different here, And of course that's been underpinned by the

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Speaker 1: fact that there's just been so much capsule that has

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Speaker 1: flooded in so quickly. That's partly been a facet of

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Speaker 1: enthusiasm for crypto in particular, And that's partly been the

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Speaker 1: tail end of the over stimulation of the economy, whether

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Speaker 1: that's been in regular tex stocks, whether that's been in

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Speaker 1: equities or other asset classes in general. I think that's

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Speaker 1: just been very obvious here in the world of crypto

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Speaker 1: as well. So you add all of those things up,

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Speaker 1: and it basically sounds like all of the financial crisis

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Speaker 1: buzzwords that any of us ever studied who are economic historians,

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Speaker 1: and you line them all up, and bingo. Because you

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Speaker 1: mentioned some of those key buzzwords, I guess like rehypothefication

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Speaker 1: would be one, leverage would be another. UM And those

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Speaker 1: are things that are very specifically playing out right now

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Speaker 1: in the collapses of different players, like three Horos Capital

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Speaker 1: going through liquidation. Three Hourrows Capital one of the biggest

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Speaker 1: crypto head funds out there. It was ordered into liquidation

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Speaker 1: by a court in the British Virgin Island. UM and

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Speaker 1: do you want to kind of explain a little bit more,

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Speaker 1: I guess how you view those as being potentially toxic

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Speaker 1: during this winter. I think one of the really interesting

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Speaker 1: conversations that I had probably eighteen months ago with UM

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Speaker 1: where they startup that was making a business model off

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Speaker 1: of lending and staking and yield in defy and was

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Speaker 1: promising yields of seventeen And I'm I'm no deep defy engineer,

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Speaker 1: and I'm certainly no market arbitrage expert, but I've been

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Speaker 1: around long enough to know that if something is too

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Speaker 1: good to be true, then it isn't true. And there

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Speaker 1: is no such thing as ristlessness. And actually, lastly, most importantly,

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Speaker 1: you can't bet against the market and the overall economy.

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Speaker 1: And so if you were thinking that you could get

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Speaker 1: yield on something that was at lower rest than something

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Speaker 1: that was yielding three or four percent, you might get

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Speaker 1: away with that for a few weeks, maybe even a

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Speaker 1: few months, but you wouldn't be able to get with

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Speaker 1: that get away with that indefinitely. And I think it's

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Speaker 1: that live of hubrist that also crept in to a

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Speaker 1: number of players in the market, this belief that this

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Speaker 1: time it was different, this time we were smarter, this

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Speaker 1: time technology or engineering would make us better. Those were

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Speaker 1: just fundamental aspects of the hubris that crept in that

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Speaker 1: again was reminiscent of the tech bubble. I think one

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Speaker 1: thing that we mentioned previously was about how you almost

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Speaker 1: picked up on it a little bit there. But the

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Speaker 1: marketing of all of this and the message that was

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Speaker 1: being sold to investors is that, you know, I think

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Speaker 1: in the in the article I wrote, I referenced an

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Speaker 1: advert on a bus that said if you're seeing bitcoin

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Speaker 1: on a bus, it's time to buy It was very

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Speaker 1: famous in the UK and got banned eventually for being

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Speaker 1: too you know, for I guess forth right with them

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Speaker 1: bitcoins pros and cons. But in that I guess how

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Speaker 1: much of the current crypto window was created by this

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Speaker 1: messaging that was being put out to investors that this

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Speaker 1: was something very easy to get into, very you know,

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Speaker 1: not a risky bet to be making, or at least

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Speaker 1: no more risky than buying bitcoin directly. I think why

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Speaker 1: I've been the best way to put it. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's it's hard for me to judge because that's pretty

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Speaker 1: qualitative and anecdotal. How much more was it created by this?

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Speaker 1: How much could it be focused on this? And then

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Speaker 1: you'll move into a realm of should it have been regulated?

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Speaker 1: How much more closely should this messaging have been monitored?

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Speaker 1: Now that's equally I'm not saying that it should not

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Speaker 1: have been regulated. These are financial products, and any time

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Speaker 1: you're promoting financial products to consumers, there needs to be

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Speaker 1: a moderation in your messaging, and there needs to be

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Speaker 1: Dare I say at some level of regulation, which there

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Speaker 1: was not in a lot of these crypto products, and

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Speaker 1: that the complication there, I suppose the does that make

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Speaker 1: it any different? Again, it makes it different from previous

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Speaker 1: crypto winters because the sheer volume, in the sheer number

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Speaker 1: of people caught up in the exuberance, it was just

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Speaker 1: an order of magnitudes more than anything we've seen in

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Speaker 1: the past. But I think when you're starting to get

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Speaker 1: people who wouldn't normally play and as you've said, less

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Speaker 1: complicated financial products, thinking that they could have riskless, easy

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Speaker 1: access to money with promises of or more per year returns,

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Speaker 1: that becomes a real problem. And I think there's a

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Speaker 1: There was a great statement that I read in a

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Speaker 1: blog post that this went beyond recklessness and moved into tragedy.

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Speaker 1: And we're hearing stories now of people who plowed their

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Speaker 1: life savings into some of these lending business models convinced

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Speaker 1: that yield class they could do it with. As you said,

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Speaker 1: also no more risk than just buying buying gold or

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Speaker 1: yeing bitcoin. And I think that's going to have some

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Speaker 1: real world repercussions for a number of people that said.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to overstate it either, because we talked

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Speaker 1: about this notion of systemic risk, but I think that

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Speaker 1: it was self contained, as hermetically sealed within the crypto world.

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Speaker 1: And and obviously we've talked about the tragedy of the

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Speaker 1: implications for individual retail investors who plowed in too far.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think what we're seeing is something that's

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Speaker 1: having ongoing implications for the wider real economy. And that's

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Speaker 1: probably a good thing. Um. And and that's that's something

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Speaker 1: that I think is perhaps similar to previous crypto winters,

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Speaker 1: that this still has been largely in crypto world, although

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Speaker 1: of course crypto world is now an order of magnitude

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Speaker 1: or more bigger than it was the last cycle. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: And I guess part of that that order of magnitude

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Speaker 1: contributing to that is the fact that the current economic

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Speaker 1: environment is so difficult. So you know, it was very

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Speaker 1: easy to sell a story of yields and defy when

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Speaker 1: you're getting less than one percent on your savings are

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Speaker 1: count in a real bank um. But kind of going

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Speaker 1: beyond that, we've seen that you know, around two trillion

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Speaker 1: is wipes off the market cap since the November peak,

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Speaker 1: So that's about a two thirds lost for the sector

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Speaker 1: as a whole. What are the consequences of that that

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Speaker 1: you think? And the crypto sector is now going to

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Speaker 1: be facing. So I don't mean to be overly flippant,

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Speaker 1: but I think the consequences are everything and nothing um.

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Speaker 1: And so what do I mean by that? I was

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Speaker 1: actually looking up the amount of ECTI value destruction again

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Speaker 1: during the dot com bost. I think the estimates range

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Speaker 1: between five and ten trillion, And of course we look

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Speaker 1: at the wider ecty markets and the collapse in share

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Speaker 1: prices also in other parts of the real economy. Again

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Speaker 1: we're talking of something north of five trillion. So in

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Speaker 1: the grand scheme of things, especially because crypto was reasonably

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Speaker 1: hermetically sealed from the rest of the wider economy, you

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Speaker 1: could argue nothing. Again, it's not going to feel like

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Speaker 1: nothing for the thousands of people who have lost their

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Speaker 1: jobs and for the many consume umors who have lost

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Speaker 1: very significant investments. But in terms of the grander scheme

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Speaker 1: of things, what are the implications for the real world,

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Speaker 1: for the real economy, also for the innovation cycles that

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Speaker 1: that maybe we'll get onto talking later on in tech

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Speaker 1: also in crypto, you could argue not so much. We'll

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Speaker 1: be right back with more of Emily Nichol's conversation with

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Speaker 1: Austin Zeka of Eight Roads Ventures about the state of

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Speaker 1: the Sea FI wipeout. So if we're thinking about how

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Speaker 1: crypto might come out of this winter and then go

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Speaker 1: back to that sunshine and summertime of the of the

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Speaker 1: bull market, um, what role do investors play in that journey,

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Speaker 1: both on the retail side but also within venture capital.

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Speaker 1: How much do you guys have a say, in a

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Speaker 1: participatory role in in reversing the winter. Well, the starting

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Speaker 1: point is we do have access to capital that's hopefully supportive.

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Speaker 1: I think that you will have noticed that in terms

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Speaker 1: of investing into startups in the space, capital has slowed

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Speaker 1: down but not dried up. So being an efficient allocator

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Speaker 1: of capital is supposed to be our job, taking capital

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Speaker 1: to the business moans that we think are sustainable and

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Speaker 1: and whereas I suppose in the over exuberance of the

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Speaker 1: last couple of years a lot of that capital was

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Speaker 1: not allocated effectively or efficiently, and and fueled to a

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Speaker 1: certain extent too much of the exuberance. Um, I think

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Speaker 1: that everyone has now gone back to basics, and and

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Speaker 1: I'm quite hopeful that we can help we as an

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Speaker 1: industry can be helpful in that regard. And again, secondly,

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Speaker 1: I think in terms of the pattern recognition we ourselves

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Speaker 1: as professionals, or at least in terms of the institutional

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Speaker 1: knowledge that we have, even if we didn't have it personally.

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Speaker 1: We've been around through many cycles. For example, eight Roads

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Speaker 1: and its predecessor funds have been investing in venture capital

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Speaker 1: since the late sixties, so we've seen quite a few cycles.

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Speaker 1: And hopefully we can therefore bring the pattern recognition, but

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Speaker 1: also a bit more of a sense of when there

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Speaker 1: are some leading indicators that spring is coming to be

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Speaker 1: supportive about the right strategies to to use that capital effectively.

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Speaker 1: From the perspective of retail investors, who gets involved, especially

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Speaker 1: in terms of crypto itself, that's a really interesting question,

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Speaker 1: and I think that that is potentially a dangerous one

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Speaker 1: until we've got a bit more clarity about the extent

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Speaker 1: to which these business models ought to be regulated, or

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Speaker 1: at least the messaging how much it ought to be

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Speaker 1: moderated to pure retail investors. Obviously retail investors range and sophistication.

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Speaker 1: For now, I think that there will be a certain

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Speaker 1: amount of market enforced self regulation, but I think that's

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Speaker 1: gonna be an interesting conversation to go on over time.

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Speaker 1: That that said, I think there's a third element here,

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Speaker 1: and that comes back to the infrastructure. I think that

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Speaker 1: will be another very interesting trend during the next turn

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Speaker 1: of the cycle here for digital assets. And then I

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Speaker 1: guess our last question, what should traders and companies be

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Speaker 1: looking out for in this current environment? You know what,

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Speaker 1: what would be the signs that they should be looking

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Speaker 1: forward to say this is the kind of the ending

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Speaker 1: point or the turning point, because at the moment it

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Speaker 1: definitely feels like we're in the doll drums of the winter.

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Speaker 1: I'm afraid I'm going to give a very safe answer,

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Speaker 1: which is if I if I knew that perhaps I

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Speaker 1: would be a more active crypto trade in myself, I

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Speaker 1: do subscribe, and I think there have been surveys out

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Speaker 1: there which have said that the consensus is there's more

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Speaker 1: downside than upside in the price at the moment. I

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Speaker 1: think I would agree with that. Then again, I think

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Speaker 1: that's more generally the case for a lot of stocks.

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Speaker 1: With every passing week, it looks like there's more bearishness

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Speaker 1: about where equities will be trading over the next few

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Speaker 1: months as well. So I definitely think that although people

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Speaker 1: talk about crypto is being a hedge to inflation and

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Speaker 1: non correlated with traditional assets, I think we've not seen

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Speaker 1: that over the last few quarters, and I think that

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Speaker 1: we're going to see a little bit longer of that

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Speaker 1: level of correlation. Well, thank you for joining me. Thank

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Speaker 1: you very much. You just heard from Emily Nicole, reporter

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Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Cryptom. So glad that she was able to

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Speaker 1: do that interview. You can find more of Emily's reporting

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Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal on Bloomberg dot com, and you

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Speaker 1: can find her on Twitter. She's at Emily J. Nicole.

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Speaker 1: That's n I CEO L L E. On the next

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Speaker 1: episode of Bloomberg Crypto. What do rapper Jay Z and

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Speaker 1: the former CEO of Twitter, Jack Dorsey have in common?

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Speaker 1: It's not music and it's not just that they're billionaires,

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Speaker 1: it's bitcoin. And if you spend enough time around people

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Speaker 1: who believe in the arguments that crypto can transform society,

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Speaker 1: you'll eventually hear them talking about the idea of financial inclusion.

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Speaker 1: And that's exactly what jay Z has teamed up with

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Speaker 1: Dorsey to do on something that they're calling Bitcoin ac Adamy,

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Speaker 1: which they say has the goal of educating and empowering

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Speaker 1: people through financial literacy, and of course there's a focus

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Speaker 1: on bitcoin. Bloomberg Proportas, Polina Cachero and Aquila Gardner will

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Speaker 1: join me to discuss Bitcoin Academy and whether crypto is

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Speaker 1: truly the key to a more financially inclusive society. I'm

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Speaker 1: Stacy Marie Ishmael, and this is Bloomberg Crypto, a daily

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Speaker 1: podcast from Bloomberg and I Heart Radio. For more shows

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Speaker 1: from I Heart Radio, visit the I Heart Radio app,

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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Email your questions,

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Speaker 1: comments or suggestions for the show to Crypto at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot net and you'll find us on Twitter at Crypto.

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Speaker 1: The supervising producer of Bloomberg Crypto is Vicky very Galina,

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Speaker 1: our senior producer is Janet Babin. Our producer is Mohammed Farup.

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Speaker 1: Our associate producers Ozanam Suddiki and Moses and um Desta

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Speaker 1: wonder At is our engineer. Original music by Leo Sadrin.

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Speaker 1: The Safe Shot a bl