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Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers name of Ryan Grodski. Thank

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Speaker 1: you guys for being here. Is this year the Progressive

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Speaker 1: Tea Party year? That's the question I want to post everybody.

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Speaker 1: Democrats as a party have had a string of very

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Speaker 1: successful elections for going back from the special elections to

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Speaker 1: all the way in November when we had the elections

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Speaker 1: in Virginia which they flipped the governorship, in all the

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Speaker 1: state wide elections in New Jersey where they kept the governorship,

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Speaker 1: and then the New York City mayoral election where Socialists

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Speaker 1: and Mozora Mondani won. But the squad itself has not

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Speaker 1: had that many successes, especially in the last few years

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Speaker 1: where they lost primaries for Corey Bush and for Jamal Bowman.

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Speaker 1: But could this year change everything? Could it turn it around?

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Speaker 1: It looks like the squad has made their first comeback

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Speaker 1: in New Jersey where Progressive Annala Maya looks like she

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Speaker 1: scored an upset victory and with the support of Elizabeth

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Speaker 1: Warren AOC and Bernie Sanders. The district is new the

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Speaker 1: eleven where the current governor has left the seat obviously

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Speaker 1: to become the governor. Progressive Anela Maya was actually kind

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Speaker 1: of running a little bit under the radar. See, a

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Speaker 1: lot of established and Democrats had circled around to support

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Speaker 1: two people, Brendan Gill and to Tahisha way I how

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Speaker 1: do you say her name? They were supporting them. The

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Speaker 1: former congressman faced mass opposition from a pack, and they

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Speaker 1: thought that there's no way that this maya woman would

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Speaker 1: kind of squeak by. We would have one of these three,

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Speaker 1: either the former congressman or these two establisher and Democrats

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Speaker 1: kind of win. And Apak went all in against the

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Speaker 1: former congressmen. And now it looks like this very progressive,

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Speaker 1: the most progressive can in the race, has won. She's

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Speaker 1: had by several hundred votes. It's ironic because Bernie Sanders,

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Speaker 1: who never was really that close to winning the presidency.

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Speaker 1: I know that's the story that Bernie bros. Liked to

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Speaker 1: tell themselves that they were so close by, but they

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Speaker 1: really were never that that close, especially not in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty or obviously not in twenty twenty four, where he

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Speaker 1: didn't even run. Twenty sixteen was the closest, but he

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Speaker 1: still was a bit distance away from Hillary Clinton. He's actively,

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Speaker 1: despite his loss, is actively changing the Democratic Party because

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Speaker 1: of the institution he built while running for president. See

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Speaker 1: when you run for president, when anyone runs for president

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Speaker 1: or a big statewide office, they build a donation list,

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Speaker 1: a list of top dollar donors, mid size donors, and

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Speaker 1: then grassroots donors. And it is very typical that grassroots donors' lists,

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Speaker 1: those huge hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands of

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Speaker 1: lists of donors who give the ten dollars, twenty dollars,

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Speaker 1: one hundred dollars, that those lists are turned over to

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Speaker 1: the RNC or the DNC or whoever is the elect

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Speaker 1: of the nominee as president, and you all share to

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Speaker 1: kind of come together as a party. While in twenty

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Speaker 1: sixteen and twenty twenty Bernie Sanders said, no, I'm not.

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Speaker 1: I'm keeping my list. I'm keeping the list of donors

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Speaker 1: who supported me. And with that list, he is building

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Speaker 1: the grassroots money machine, the money juggernaut to back very

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Speaker 1: progressive candidates running all over the country. So he's actively

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Speaker 1: working to stay shape, but he's running candidates, including in

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Speaker 1: deep red seats. He's running a candidate in Utah's first

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Speaker 1: congressional district and Montana's first congression district, districts that Democrats

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Speaker 1: are not going to win. I mean it would have

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Speaker 1: to be an insane election. I mean, don't do a

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Speaker 1: monsoon for them to win. But he's running even their

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Speaker 1: candidates because he wants to show that his message is

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Speaker 1: very far left. Message is actually the message that Trump

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Speaker 1: voters gravitate to. That they don't really gravitate to Hillary

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Speaker 1: Clinton and Joe Biden, a moderate that they really want

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Speaker 1: his message. They want far left progressivism, socialism, medicare for all,

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Speaker 1: high taxes on the wad wealthy, breaking up corporations. That's

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Speaker 1: what they want. Right Almost every major candidate that Bernie

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Speaker 1: has is endorsed is building this is living off of

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Speaker 1: this massive financial infrastructure from the Bernie Sanders presidential campaigns.

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Speaker 1: So I want to go through a few of them

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Speaker 1: right now. In North Carolina, in the fourth district, which

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Speaker 1: is a majority black district, he is supporting a Muslim

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Speaker 1: woman named Nita Alim against the incumbent Democrat who is

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Speaker 1: a black woman, Valerie Fushi. In New York ten, he's

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Speaker 1: supporting Brad Ladner, a very progressive Jewish candidate, against incumbent

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Speaker 1: David Daniel Goldman. In Michigan's is backing Donovan McKinney, a

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Speaker 1: black man in a district that is currently represented by

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Speaker 1: a Muslim, Shari Thander. You don't know him by name,

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Speaker 1: but he's the guy who barely speaks English and looks

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Speaker 1: like he's constantly wearing a wig inscrimm about Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: He's got a very awkward voice. He's challenging candidate there.

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Speaker 1: Race and identity play an intricate pard in each of

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Speaker 1: these races he's kind of getting involved in. In the Senate,

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Speaker 1: he's supporting Graham Platner in Maine, and Abdul al Said

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Speaker 1: in Michigan and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota. Bernie's candidates are

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Speaker 1: out raising the establishing Democrat, including incumbents. That's the craziest thing.

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Speaker 1: These aren't all open seats. Some of them are. In

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Speaker 1: the Senate, they're all open seats, but in the House,

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Speaker 1: a lot of them aren't challenging sitting Democrats. That is

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Speaker 1: a complete break from the norm for the party leaders

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Speaker 1: who usually wait till an open seat shows up and

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Speaker 1: then they back somebody. They don't really go after incumbents.

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Speaker 1: It's very very rare, and these challengers are raising more.

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Speaker 1: As they said Nita Alm in North Carolina outraised the

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Speaker 1: incumbent Democrat almost three to one. Donovan McKinney over in Michigan,

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Speaker 1: he raised two hundred and sixty three thousand dollars, while

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Speaker 1: the incumbent Democrat, that guy with the wig I told

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Speaker 1: you about, he actually lost one point nine million in

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Speaker 1: his last quarterly filing. Which I've done a lot of races.

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Speaker 1: That's extremely atypical. I'd never heard of a candidate running

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Speaker 1: for office who lost two million dollars and raised almost done.

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Speaker 1: Something's wrong with that guy. But how successful will Bernie's

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Speaker 1: army be is the question? Who knows? It's very difficult

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Speaker 1: to tell. They're certainly winning in places that no one

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Speaker 1: expected them to win. Morris County, New Jersey is a

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Speaker 1: very wealthy, very Jewish county, and they just elected a

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Speaker 1: progressive liberal who wants higher taxes, socialism and hates Israel.

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Speaker 1: I mean, who knew that such a candidate could win.

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Speaker 1: You could not create that in a lab. You couldn't

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Speaker 1: mimic that to audiences. And if I told you that

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Speaker 1: ten years ago, you'd say, Ryan, you're crazy. But this

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Speaker 1: could this year could be the opposite of twenty ten,

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Speaker 1: where rather than seeing a wave of conservatives win. You're

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Speaker 1: seeing a wave of progressives win. And while Democrats are

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Speaker 1: sitting there and they're celebrating, you know, oh look we're

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Speaker 1: gonna win all these election these elections. It's a different

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Speaker 1: Democratic party. This is not forget about the party of

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Speaker 1: like Tip O'Neil from the eighties. That's gone gone, it

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Speaker 1: has been for a while. But this isn't even the

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Speaker 1: party of Harry Reid from the two thousands. This is

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Speaker 1: barely going to be the party of Nancy Pelosi going forward.

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Speaker 1: So while Democrats are celebrating right these wins and possibly

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Speaker 1: taking over the House and being competitive in the Senate,

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Speaker 1: it's going to be a pain for Chuck Schumer and

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Speaker 1: Hakeem Jeffries. They don't know it yet, become twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 1: After this election's over, they're going to be living in

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Speaker 1: the house that Bernie builds.

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Speaker 2: And that's going.

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Speaker 1: To change dynamics when it comes to conversations over international funding,

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Speaker 1: conversations over continuing resolutions to keep the government open, where

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Speaker 1: a lot of Democrats fall in on. There's enough establishing

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Speaker 1: Democrats to keep things moving. AOC and the squad are

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Speaker 1: very much outnumbered. But what happens. If their numbers double

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Speaker 1: this year, it won't be the same. And it's all

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Speaker 1: creating the outline, the plan, the infrastructure, the candidates nationwide

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Speaker 1: for a socialist to run, and we the Democratic nominee. Now,

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Speaker 1: Bernie looks like his time is basically overdoing that. I mean,

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Speaker 1: a man is very old. I'm not exactly sure how

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Speaker 1: old he is, but his teeth almost don't fit. That's

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Speaker 1: how old he is. He looks like he's constantly fallen

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Speaker 1: out of a building. I mean, the man has aged significantly.

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Speaker 1: He's frozen and preserved in her mom but still but

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Speaker 1: it looks like his time is over. But is AOC's time.

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Speaker 1: She is contemplating actively a run for the US Senate

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Speaker 1: but also for president, and she has the money, and

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Speaker 1: with Bernie Sanders, she will have the infrastructure to pose

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Speaker 1: a real challenge. And Bernie who never I mean, he

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Speaker 1: accomplished some things in the Senate. I don't want to

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Speaker 1: undermine his entire career. He had a very prominent healthcare

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Speaker 1: bill for veterans with John McCain back of several decades ago.

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Speaker 1: He had a lot of other wins under his belt.

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Speaker 1: So he's not a do nothing senator, but he's a kingmaker. Now,

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Speaker 1: He's in a position that no progressive this century has

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Speaker 1: really been in. And we're entering a phase where could

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Speaker 1: this be like the nineteenies again, where Democrats, rather than

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Speaker 1: backing up Bill Clinton like they did in the nineties,

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Speaker 1: they back a Walter Mondale, they back a far left progressive.

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Speaker 1: And while America rejected those candidates back in the eighties

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Speaker 1: and the seventies, we're not that country anymore. The demographics

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Speaker 1: are remarkably different and playing into identity. It's part of

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Speaker 1: what Democrats are really trying to do now to gin

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Speaker 1: up this.

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Speaker 2: Progressive base and among young people. It could take enough

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Speaker 2: of a.

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Speaker 1: Control, enough of a footprint that it ultimately elects the

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Speaker 1: next Democratic nominee. Black women in the Deep South still

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Speaker 1: have a very strong control, But if they're outnumbered, and

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Speaker 1: they're outgunned by white progressives and by ethnic minorities who

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Speaker 1: are recent immigrants who are demanding a more far left

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Speaker 1: Democratic party, they may end up losing this entire thing.

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Speaker 1: And who knows which way the country goes till then,

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Speaker 1: especially with hiring and the economy and how people feel

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Speaker 1: about Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: You never know.

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Speaker 1: One thing is clear This could be the year progresses

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Speaker 1: actually make themselves seen and heard. And we are all

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Speaker 1: waking up to a Democratic Party that looks to Bernie

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Speaker 1: Sanders as the ide ideological godfather.

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Speaker 2: It's wild.

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Speaker 1: And while I was working on this monologue, I started

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Speaker 1: thinking about loyalty. Right, there's going to be this innate

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Speaker 1: sense of loyalty to Bernie ideologically one, but two financially

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Speaker 1: because he's doing all this. What does loyalty look like

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Speaker 1: to Trump? On the Republican side, and especially as we're

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Speaker 1: entering into year two, halfway through the second term, we're

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Speaker 1: going to start hearing about a presidential run in the

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Speaker 1: very near future for Republicans. A lot of Republicans if

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Speaker 1: this midterm elections, you're going to start hoping their heads

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Speaker 1: around and saying, do we have a chance to win?

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Speaker 1: Do we have a chance to run? That's what I

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Speaker 1: want to explore for our next topic. We're going to

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Speaker 1: have a special guest on the two talk about ideological

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Speaker 1: support and loyalty to Donald Trump and what that looks

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Speaker 1: like in the Republican Party today. Stay tuned. Gabe Fleischer

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Speaker 1: is the author of Wake Up to Politics. He's writing

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Speaker 1: a fascinating piece that I really wanted to talk about

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Speaker 1: about how loyal members of the Republican Party are to

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. Gabe, what I like what you did on

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Speaker 1: this compared to like what voter Hub did, which is

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Speaker 1: a similar but non exact same piece, is that you

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Speaker 1: looked at members throughout the entire time Trump has been president,

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Speaker 1: including the first term. What are some things that you learned.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I basically looked exactly right since twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 3: and there's been about four hundred and ninety Republicans who

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Speaker 3: have served in Congress, you know, in the last coming

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Speaker 3: up in a decade now, since President Trump first took

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Speaker 3: office in his first term, and I basically just took

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Speaker 3: like what I felt like were the key votes to

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Speaker 3: kind of test Republican loyalty towards Donald Trump. I think,

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Speaker 3: like you said, there's other analyzes that have been done

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Speaker 3: at different points trying to get at some of the things.

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Speaker 3: I didn't go like every single bill that's ever been

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Speaker 3: before Congress and how Trump sides on it. I kind

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Speaker 3: of tried to pick like key moments in both terms,

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Speaker 3: and so you know, those are impeachment votes in both terms,

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Speaker 3: votes on like signature pieces of legislation like you know,

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Speaker 3: the one big beautiful bill in this term, and Obamacare

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Speaker 3: Obamacare appeal, and the twenty seventeen tax cuts, votes on

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Speaker 3: kind of executive power like national emergencies or tariffs or

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Speaker 3: war powers.

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Speaker 2: Things like that.

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Speaker 3: And basically what I found was, you know that in

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Speaker 3: that hole, out of all those four hundred and ninety

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Speaker 3: three Republicans that have served since President Trump took office

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Speaker 3: the first time, only ninety four out of the four

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Speaker 3: hundred ninety three had ever broken with him on.

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Speaker 2: Any of those kinds of key votes.

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Speaker 3: And then I also tried to look, you know, over time,

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Speaker 3: how many of those Republicans are still in office, and

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Speaker 3: trying to look at kind of the steady erosion over time.

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Speaker 3: As we know, a lot of those Republicans have retired

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Speaker 3: from office, some of them were in swing districts, were defeated,

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Speaker 3: some of them President Trump you know, endorsed primary challengers

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Speaker 3: against them. Basically, what I found was that fewer than

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Speaker 3: half forty were still in office by the time Trump

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Speaker 3: returned this year or last year in twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 3: so from ninety four to forty, and then there's many

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Speaker 3: more members. You know, as we know, members like Don

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Speaker 3: Bacon and Tom Tillis who are retiring, and then others

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Speaker 3: like Susan Collins, who are you know, very vulnerable in

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Speaker 3: general elections, or Thomas Masthew is very vulnerable at a

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Speaker 3: primary And basically my finding was that the number could

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Speaker 3: drink as few as twenty two by this time next year,

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Speaker 3: and will certainly be as tho as twenty eight based

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Speaker 3: on it looks.

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Speaker 1: Like from what I was seeing, is that I mean

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Speaker 1: a ninety It was a ninety four, I think is

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Speaker 1: a small number because it's about I was a fifth, right,

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Speaker 1: a fifth broke with him at one major time or

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Speaker 1: the other. And what it looked like a lot of

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Speaker 1: people who had been there for a while, like the

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Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell era Republicans were willing to sit there and

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Speaker 1: break with him here or there, except for how Rogers,

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Speaker 1: who's been there forever and I guess we'll just be

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Speaker 1: there forever and will never leave his seat in Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: But most of them were older, and they were replaced

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Speaker 1: by people who were less I guess ideologically I don't know,

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Speaker 1: and not ambitious, but or more of a Now I'm

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Speaker 1: looking for the word that Sarah Palin and John McCain

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Speaker 1: used that I'm blanking on maverick. Yeah, they were also

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Speaker 1: a maverick. They were willing to stay on track with

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Speaker 1: what the president wanted. So it wasn't that he just

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Speaker 1: challenged them all, just some of them didn't naturally just

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Speaker 1: retire and like headed to the sunset, and they were

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Speaker 1: replaced by more ideologically coherent and supportive of the president.

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Speaker 1: Is that right?

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Speaker 3: Yes, I think that's exactly right. And I mean I

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Speaker 3: would note I guess I think it's a mix. I

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Speaker 3: think you're certainly right if you look at the list,

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's really it's a mix of things, but

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Speaker 3: it's largely I think a tour through kind of you know,

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Speaker 3: names that people remember, the Jeff Flakes and obviously John

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Speaker 3: McCain or Mitch McConnell's of the world, you know, Roy Blunt,

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Speaker 3: Richard Burr, kind of these kind of exactly old old

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Speaker 3: blimee Republicans. Yeah, I think you're right. I think some

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Speaker 3: of them who were I mean, obviously Mitch McConnell is

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Speaker 3: clearly at an age at which it makes sense that

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Speaker 3: he retired.

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Speaker 2: Think some like Jeff Flake.

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Speaker 3: You might imagine if you know President Ted Cruz or

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Speaker 3: something had won in twenty seventeen, you know, was probably

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Speaker 3: young enough that he certainly is of a different era

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Speaker 3: of Republican, but would maybe still have run for another

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Speaker 3: six years. So some who I think were tired but

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Speaker 3: definitely seemingly retired, you know, knowing they would be facing

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Speaker 3: primary challenges, knowing that, you know, they were kind of

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Speaker 3: out of step at the party. So I think it's

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Speaker 3: a mix, and you know, so, yeah, I think it's

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Speaker 3: some who who were tired, kind of under duress, some

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Speaker 3: who were tired at the time. You'd expect them to

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Speaker 3: some who were defeated because you know, as is not surprising,

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Speaker 3: people who tend to be more heterodox, more mavericky, like

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Speaker 3: you're saying, usually are from purple swing districts. So actually,

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Speaker 3: of the people who lost their seats, you know, more

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Speaker 3: of them lost their seats because Democrats defeated them than

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Speaker 3: other Republicans, because these are people in you know, purple seats,

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Speaker 3: and that's why.

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Speaker 1: These against trust Trump, whether they like it or not, right.

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Speaker 3: And so they took votes against Trump because they're in

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Speaker 3: purple seats. But they were still Republicans in years like

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Speaker 3: twenty eighteen, and so they.

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Speaker 1: Lost this what what are the it what's the issue

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Speaker 1: that they broke with Trump the most on? If you

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Speaker 1: had to bring in those what was the issue that

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Speaker 1: most of them's out there and broke Trump on.

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Speaker 2: That's a good question.

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Speaker 3: I think I just looking at the list, and I

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Speaker 3: want to be clear that each of the areas, there

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Speaker 3: are some areas that you know, there's more than one

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Speaker 3: vote per an area, and so some of these it's

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Speaker 3: just it's the result potentially of the most But I

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Speaker 3: believe that the.

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Speaker 2: Number one is is the national emergencies.

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Speaker 3: And that's particularly because it's very interesting if you remember

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Speaker 3: from President Trump's first term, there's actually a lot of

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Speaker 3: Republicans in the House and Senate who broke with Trump

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Speaker 3: on that border wall emergency you to colored in twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 3: if you remember, including Marco Rubio, interestingly enough, who's obviously

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Speaker 3: now in Trump's cabinet and was also I guess you

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Speaker 3: could have been considered in the same kind of at

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Speaker 3: least mold the Republican that we're talking about until obviously.

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Speaker 1: Well, there's been many versions of Mark RuView. We're from

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Speaker 1: Mark Rebu at four point zero. I mean, it's not

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Speaker 1: Margarho's updated with the Apple phone, every comple exactly. So,

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Speaker 1: I mean I like Marker review, but it is the

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Speaker 1: truth of the truth now. And the interesting thing about

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Speaker 1: these votes for national emergencies is a lot of times

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Speaker 1: when there's opposition to anything Trump's doing, a lot of

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Speaker 1: it happens behind closed doors, like you don't see, there's

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Speaker 1: not a vote because the votes either squashed or Trump

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Speaker 1: changes his mind or whatnot. So to take a public

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Speaker 1: opposition actually does mean something more significant because pribably a

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Speaker 1: lot of members have sat there and said to Trump,

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Speaker 1: I don't like this, I don't like that. As I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: vote Hub was that website they did analysis of the

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Speaker 1: current members of the party and how moderate they were,

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Speaker 1: and what I found fascinating. I know you didn't write this,

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Speaker 1: but I would love your feedback on it. What was

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Speaker 1: fascinating was the senator who opposed Trump the most frequently

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Speaker 1: was not Susan Collins Orlista Rakowski, It was Ran Paul.

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Speaker 1: Does that make any sense to you or anything?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean he also figures, Again these are two

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Speaker 3: different analyzis, but he figures very highly in breaking with

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Speaker 3: Trump in my nazis too. I mean, Rand Paul, you

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Speaker 3: think of him as a very classically libertarian politicians. So

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Speaker 3: he's broken with Trump on several of you know, the

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Speaker 3: national emergency votes in oftentimes are kind of tariff votes

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Speaker 3: disguised as national emergency votes because the way President Trump

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Speaker 3: is declaring or the way the President Trump is imposing

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Speaker 3: many of his tariffs are via national emergencies and what's

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Speaker 3: available in the law. And just to briefly get back

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Speaker 3: to what you're saying, and the reason why many of

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Speaker 3: those votes are public is most behind the scenes, is

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Speaker 3: because all it takes is one member of the Senate

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Speaker 3: to force a vote on doing a national emergency, which

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Speaker 3: then can undo the tariffs. But anyways, so Rand Paul's

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Speaker 3: broke with Trump on several of those national emergency slash

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Speaker 3: tariff votes.

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Speaker 2: He's broken with Trump.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's been a longtime critic of you know,

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Speaker 3: presidential war powers and you know, really trying to reign

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Speaker 3: in you know, the executive you know, military powers. And

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Speaker 3: so he's broke with Trump on several of those votes.

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Speaker 3: And so so no, I would say that that's not surprising. Again,

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Speaker 3: I mean, two different ways of running the numbers. So

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Speaker 3: the way I kind of did it was just by

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Speaker 3: looking at who had broke with Trump, and in the

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Speaker 3: most of those categories, I had eight categories. Susan Collins

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Speaker 3: broke with him in seven out of eight. For her

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Speaker 3: for in my way of running the numbers, she was

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Speaker 3: Londerberg the most. But I can look at rand Paul

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Speaker 3: it's you know, he doesn't know.

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Speaker 1: And it's very interesting because when it comes to breaking,

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Speaker 1: when it comes to breaking with Trump, right, there's two

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Speaker 1: people who do. There's the rampole of your not being

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Speaker 1: principled enough, and then there's a Susan Colin of you're

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Speaker 1: not being pragmatic enough. And I guess really that's the

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Speaker 1: split within the Republican Party of like, I can't support

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Speaker 1: what you're doing just because you're not being what an

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Speaker 1: ideal of what a good conservative is versus what is

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Speaker 1: pragmatic for our own reelection or I hate saying the

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Speaker 1: word moderate because maty doesn't mean what people think it means.

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Speaker 1: But is that is that what you see when you

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Speaker 1: break down all your yeah, person, I.

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Speaker 2: Think that's a good point.

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Speaker 3: I think one thing that interested that it's interesting that

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Speaker 3: comes up there is I think when you look at

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Speaker 3: the first term, I mean, you know, I think the

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Speaker 3: House Freedom Caucus is probably like the group most associated

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Speaker 3: with that kind of second group you're talking about. That's

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Speaker 3: in the House and Paul's in the Senate, but a

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Speaker 3: lot of his historically at least ideological allies in that caucus,

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Speaker 3: and in his first term, you saw members of that

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Speaker 3: caucus broke with Trump.

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Speaker 2: Not infrequently.

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Speaker 3: I mean, obviously they were still Trump allies, but again,

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Speaker 3: a lot of those national emergency votes would break with Trump,

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Speaker 3: and in a lot of the ways. I mean, the

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Speaker 3: House Freedom of Caacus was founded during the Obama era

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Speaker 3: on shrinking executive power, you know, critiquing, you know, the

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Speaker 3: presency for getting out of hand of what the Constitution

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Speaker 3: had contemplated, and so you would see in the first

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Speaker 3: term members of the Freedom cok is breaking with him

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Speaker 3: a lot when he would kind of, like you say,

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Speaker 3: kind of stray from those principles. I think you've seen

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Speaker 3: a lot less of that this term, but certainly not

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Speaker 3: none of it. And I mean, I was, you know,

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Speaker 3: commenting the other day that you know, you know, it's

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Speaker 3: it's pretty interesting if you think of just the last

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Speaker 3: few months of Republicans who have broken with Trump. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: we've had Marjorie Taylor Green, you know, incredibly publicly.

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Speaker 2: We saw Lauren Bobert, you.

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Speaker 3: Know, Trump veto a bill by Lauren Bobert and and

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Speaker 3: her really criticized him over that we saw just days ago,

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Speaker 3: not in a way that was you know, messaged as

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Speaker 3: criticizing Trump, but Annapolina Luna, another you know, very you

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Speaker 3: know MAGA aligned Republican you know, kind of threatened to

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Speaker 3: shut down the government, threatened to tank a bill that

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Speaker 3: President Trump was supported, you know.

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Speaker 2: And she was over a billion.

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Speaker 1: She's probably behind the Epstein thing too.

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Speaker 2: That that's true.

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Speaker 3: And then yes, and then her and Mace and Green

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Speaker 3: all signed the Epstein file sesearch mission. So so I agree,

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Speaker 3: I think it's it's there have certainly been times when

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Speaker 3: it's the Republicans. I mean, if you had told me

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Speaker 3: that those are the types of Republicans breaking with Trump

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Speaker 3: the most, you know, a year a year ago, I

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Speaker 3: would not have expected splits with with the blur and

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Speaker 3: Boberts and Margie Tayler Greens of the world.

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Speaker 2: So so you do sometimes see I think surprises, you.

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Speaker 1: Know, and it's interesting that a lot of the high

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Speaker 1: profile MAGA, not ideologically rigic conservaives, but specifically those aligned

435
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 1: with Trump, have are not here anymore. MTG. Matt Gates.

436
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 1: Luna is here but has has split with him. Bobert's here,

437
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 1: but it's split with him. There is more friction than

438
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 1: there was in the first term or halfway through the

439
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 1: first term in terms of like I don't want to

440
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,399
Speaker 1: say blind loyalty, because I don't want to speak disrespectful

441
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 1: to anybody, but those who always seem to have the

442
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 1: presence back or had the presence back ninety nine times

443
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 1: out of one hundred.

444
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 3: I mean, look, Donald Trump, you know, say what you

445
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 3: will about him, and in some case, in some ways

446
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 3: this has worked out well for him and other times poorly.

447
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 3: But you know, he is an incredibly ideologically inconsistent figure.

448
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 3: And so I think there are some Republicans who've been

449
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,679
Speaker 3: elected to Congress in the last few years, you know,

450
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 3: as kind of Trump supporters full stop, and so wherever

451
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 3: Donald Trump zigs or zags, they're happy to zigger zag

452
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 3: with him.

453
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 2: And you look at like Marjorie Taylor Green.

454
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 3: You know, if you've heard what she's talked about, she

455
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 3: was on the Central signs, so there you go. So

456
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 3: then you've heard it from herself, you know, talking about

457
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 3: you know, she was elected, you know, really bought into

458
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 3: the America First ideology and really feels that Donald Trump

459
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,880
Speaker 3: has broken with that. And it's true that at different points,

460
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 3: you know, if you know, if if if you're someone

461
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,879
Speaker 3: who is elected with a pretty strict ideological agenda, no

462
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 3: matter whatever wing of the Republican Party you're in, it

463
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 3: would be hard to always be voting with Donald Trump

464
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 3: because he skirts around the ideological map all the time.

465
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:13,679
Speaker 3: So I think, yeah, so I think a lot of

466
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 3: it is, you know, which is always the case in Congress,

467
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 3: and like, this isn't the first presidency that's come up

468
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 3: for although I do think he is particularly ideologically heterodox.

469
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 2: We could say, but.

470
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 3: You know, there's always had the question of voting strictly

471
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,199
Speaker 3: along the party lines, or you know, are you going

472
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 3: to vote when there are times that the president of

473
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 3: your own party are doing things, you know, like you know,

474
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 3: imposing tariffs which are essentially you know, taxes, or you're

475
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 3: exercising war powers that you've criticized. You when there are

476
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 3: things that go against you know, the values you've campaigned

477
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 3: for in your in your campaigns, there's always that decision

478
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: of whether to follow those principles or follow the party.

479
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,159
Speaker 1: So you mentioned Susan Collins in the Senate, and I

480
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: mentioned Rampau in the Senate. Who in the House? I

481
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 1: probably you're probably the same as voter hub as the

482
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 1: Republican House member or currently in office who has broken

483
00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 1: most with the president.

484
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think it's massive. Which is that

485
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 2: what they say as well?

486
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: Now they didn't. Actually it's very Bryan Fitzpatrick.

487
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 2: So I have let me check.

488
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: Cryan Fitzpatrick for those who don't know. Thomas Massy's very

489
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 1: well of Brian Fitzpatrick for those who don't know. He

490
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 1: represents Bucks County, Pennsylvania. It's a district that barely voted

491
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 1: for Kamala Harris. I think by point one percent. He

492
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 1: is extremely well liked. He wins his re elections with

493
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:25,400
Speaker 1: huge numbers. He's got millions upon millions of dollars for fundraising.

494
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up running against

495
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: for the Federman seat when it opens up. Very very

496
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,120
Speaker 1: very popular in the swing county of Bucks County. He's

497
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 1: a very very moderate Republican. That's who. And actually they

498
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,640
Speaker 1: actually said that Fitzpatrick has voted with the president as

499
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 1: often as Henry Quaar, a Democrat for the South Texas

500
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 1: who is the most conservative Democrat in the House by

501
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 1: you know, light years. So why did you say Thomas Massey?

502
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 3: So I actually have so I just checked in and

503
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 3: double check. So again, so I'm basic only off of

504
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 3: I eight categories, and it's actually a tie.

505
00:24:58,680 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 2: They both have broke with one.

506
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:01,360
Speaker 1: Four Okay, so yeah, that's about the same.

507
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 2: So it's actually a tie between the team.

508
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 3: I don't think it's the same exact categories, but it's

509
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 3: basically the same Massy.

510
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 1: And that also speaks to the splinter of the ideology

511
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 1: of Massy being you're not being ideologically consistent with me

512
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,119
Speaker 1: and Fitzpatrick saying you're not being pragmatic as I would

513
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 1: like you to be, and therefore that is splintered. How

514
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,640
Speaker 1: much of this split that you've looked at your numbers

515
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: of people who opposed Trump, how much of that is

516
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:32,200
Speaker 1: related to the competitiveness of their district did you look

517
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 1: at that?

518
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 2: I didn't.

519
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 3: I did not like run like a statistical analysis of

520
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 3: like you're kind of comparing competitive competitiveness of the districts

521
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 3: to the numbers. But I will say, like I said,

522
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 3: you know of you know, just looking at the if

523
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 3: you take the whole data set of ninety four who

524
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 3: who have broken the Trump on any of these categories

525
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 3: since twenty seventeen, you know, after retiring, the most common

526
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,959
Speaker 3: way they have left office is by losing their seats,

527
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,360
Speaker 3: which I think does speak to the fact that many

528
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 3: of these are representing you know, purple seats that you know, Actually,

529
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 3: I do think it's interesting because I wrote this story partially,

530
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 3: you know, really, you know, I had in mind, you know,

531
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 3: he had just endorsed a primary challenger at a Bill Cassidy,

532
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 3: who appears in this list, having voted for Trump's condiction

533
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty one. He's obviously he's been posting several

534
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 3: times I'm true social trying to promote Thomas Massey's primary challenger.

535
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:23,640
Speaker 3: And so part of the reason why I was looking

536
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 3: into these numbers was I was curious how many had

537
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,880
Speaker 3: lost their seats via primary challenges, because we know, like famously,

538
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 3: the President has promoted you know, several high profile primary challenges. Obviously,

539
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 3: this Cheney you know list goes on, but but actually

540
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 3: that you know, after retiring the most common way is

541
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 3: not not because they're from you know, really deep red

542
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 3: seats where where maybe a Trump backed primary challenger is

543
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,679
Speaker 3: enough to knock them off, but actually it's from being

544
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 3: from purple seats. And you have particularly you know, I

545
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,679
Speaker 3: included my list, you know, people who voted against Obamacare

546
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 3: appeal in twenty eighteen or the twenty seventeen tax cuts,

547
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:55,880
Speaker 3: and you know, a lot of that was with the

548
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 3: intention of, you know, trying to to save save their

549
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 3: own seats in the twenty eighteen terms.

550
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 2: And a huge number of those are just wiped out.

551
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 1: And the last question to you, where does that leave

552
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:10,919
Speaker 1: the Republican Party as Trump is exiting? Where does it

553
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 1: leave us as a party? Is it more is it

554
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 1: more ideologically consistent or is it just more Trump specific?

555
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 2: I think it's hard to say.

556
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 3: I mean, I think under the hood, I think there

557
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 3: remains a great number of ideological divisions. I think yeah,

558
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 3: And I think it remains a big question whether you know,

559
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 3: a JD. Vance or Mark Rubio, whoever comes after Trump,

560
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 3: will he be able to will they be able to

561
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 3: glue together? You know, the disparate factions as masterfully as

562
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 3: Trump has, I think there remains a lot of ideological divisions.

563
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 3: What we can see I think pretty clearly in this

564
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,199
Speaker 3: analysis is like we said, there's an entire generation of

565
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 3: Republicans that you know, I think used to take up,

566
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 3: you know, a large amount of Congress. I think still

567
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 3: takes up a large amount of like the maybe commentariat,

568
00:27:58,400 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 3: we could say of kind of like we could think

569
00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 3: of like never Trump Republican.

570
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 2: Type people, and that that type of person just doesn't

571
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:07,400
Speaker 2: exist in Congress anymore.

572
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:07,719
Speaker 1: Now.

573
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:09,679
Speaker 3: Now, one thing I'll note that is interesting, and I

574
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,200
Speaker 3: didn't didn't put this in the numbers, but like one

575
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 3: little bit of an interesting thing is I wanted to

576
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:18,640
Speaker 3: only include votes during President Trump's terms when he kind

577
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,199
Speaker 3: of did of the power to you know, he has

578
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 3: clearly we've seen you know, pretty you know, large powers

579
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 3: of kind of whipping his members and keeping them in line.

580
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,679
Speaker 3: But I also looked I didn't include it in kind

581
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 3: of the formal analysis, but as few different votes taken

582
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 3: during the Biden era, it was interesting to see votes

583
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 3: like on the January sixth Commission on creating a January

584
00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 3: sixth Commission, votes on holding Steve Bannon in contempt, votes

585
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 3: like that, and there were larger numbers of Republicans who

586
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 3: broke with Trump once he was not on the scene

587
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 3: and then have kind of reverted back to kind of

588
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 3: voting in lockstuff with him once he is on the scene.

589
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 3: So I think does suggest a lot of those Republicans

590
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 3: do remain in office who have kind of you know, snapped.

591
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 1: Back and then if you going too private commerce stations,

592
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 1: there's really only fewer that even argue one way or

593
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 1: the other. Had a few in the show. But Gabe,

594
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 1: this has been so fascinating. Where can people go to

595
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: read more about you and read your stuff in your comments?

596
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 3: Yes, so the newsletter is Wake Up Too Politics dot

597
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 3: com and people can find.

598
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 1: It there and on social media and on social medium.

599
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 2: I'm on on x wake Up number two Politics.

600
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 1: Okay, great, thank you for coming this podcast. I really

601
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 1: appreciate it. Thanks so much having me Ryan. Now it's

602
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 1: time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want

603
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 1: to part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me

604
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 1: Ryan at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. That's Ryan at Plural

605
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 1: Numbers Game Podcast dot com. This email comes from Jenny. Jenny.

606
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: This email was so over my head. I actually had

607
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 1: a phone or friend she asked she send me an

608
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 1: article called the Boom, and they mistook for a bust

609
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: from breitbarton Business Digest or Financial Digest. It explains that

610
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 1: we need to reorder our thinking on payroll data when

611
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 1: evaluating manufacturing sector, just like how it matters in real

612
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 1: estate and whether they are sellers if it's a seller's

613
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 1: market or buyer's market. The same could be said in

614
00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: which statistics matter when there's a sho of employees instead

615
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 1: of a shortage of jobs. Or at least it's how

616
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 1: she understood the concept. What do I think? I did

617
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 1: not understand this article ever. It was a little over

618
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 1: my head, basically saying we need to reconstitute how many

619
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: manufacturing jobs are needed because of technology, and you know

620
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 1: what that looks like as far as employment goes. I

621
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 1: actually emailed John Carney, the author of the article. I said,

622
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: John explained this, and this is what he said. He said,

623
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 1: this is one hundred percent correct. Jenny, your opinion on

624
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:29,959
Speaker 1: this as one hundred percent correct. If we have a

625
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 1: low job number, it isn't that it's weak if the

626
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: reason that there are fewer people to hire. So that's

627
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: a very I thought, astute thing when it comes to

628
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 1: looking at manufacturing hiring, especially as robotics take more of

629
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 1: these jobs. It's very interesting and it certainly will play

630
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 1: a part in how we have these conversations about certain

631
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 1: business sectors going forward. Okay, last question comes from Ben.

632
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 1: Ben says, I'm curious what are your thoughts on those

633
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 1: who were used to be staunch Republicans such as those

634
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 1: in the subject line, which is Steve Schmidtrick Wilson, Joe Walsh,

635
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 1: Adam Kinsinger, and Bill Crystal, but now ran completely to

636
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 1: the left and the era of Trump. Do you think

637
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 1: that they had a genuine change of political ideology or

638
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 1: are they all just opportunists and grifters. Me personally, I

639
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 1: leaned towards the campid they are grifters. Were wondering what

640
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 1: your thoughts are interviewed Any interesting intel on these people

641
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 1: that you could shed some light on. Okay, I used

642
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 1: to work with Phil Crystal when I was at the

643
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 1: Washington Examiner. He was at the Weekly Standard. We shared

644
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 1: an office. I wasn't in there every day, but I

645
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: was in there quite a bit, and Bill and I

646
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: had one conversation exchange. I worked in New York politics

647
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 1: on the campaign side for years, I mean since I

648
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 1: was eighteen. It's the only job I have Besides I

649
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 1: worked at Victoria's secret selling bras. I had two jobs

650
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 1: my whole life, selling bras, working in politics. The only

651
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 1: thing I can do this goes belly up. I'm back

652
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 1: to selling bras. So but I know New York politics

653
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 1: in and out.

654
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 2: I can.

655
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 1: I'm up there with the like I'm up there with

656
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 1: the most knowledge of people in the field on this

657
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 1: state's politics. So when Trump was running the primary, I

658
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 1: said to there was I think ninety five delegates at

659
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 1: risk in twenty sixteen, which once again, how I know

660
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 1: that and don't know why I walk in the kitchen

661
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 1: half the day drives me crazy. But they were ninety

662
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: five delegates, and I said to Bill Crystal, Trump was

663
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: going to win at least ninety of them and probably

664
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: when every county besides Manhattan. And Bill was like, yeah, right,

665
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 1: get out of town. And I said, I'll bet you lunch,

666
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 1: and I come in the next day. Trump had won

667
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 1: ninety exactly in every county aside from Manhattan. And when

668
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 1: I walk in and Bill is staring at the television

669
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 1: screen just screaming the effort over and over and over again.

670
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: And I didn't ask him about lunch. I was like,

671
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 1: you know what, not his day probably not feeling too good,

672
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 1: Probably not gonna be a great conversation, so I just

673
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 1: let it go. And you remember, Bill's a nepo baby,

674
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 1: Like Bill's the worst kind of nepo baby. His father,

675
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 1: Irving Crystal, was a major major figure. He was a

676
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 1: quote communist to got mugged by reality, and that's I

677
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 1: think they're phrase to what any of conservatives were. And

678
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 1: Bill expected to be the heir apparent, and he had

679
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 1: a bit of a chip on his shoulder about his

680
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 1: father's reputation and wanting to live up to that. And

681
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 1: he'd done media for decades and he thought he really

682
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 1: had was a kingmaker in a certain sense, or understood

683
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 1: the GOP. Actually, his Weekly Standard was the first company

684
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 1: that Murdoch actually invested in in for a conservative media publication.

685
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 1: So Bill thought that he knew the party and knew

686
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 1: the voters, and he didn't. He had no clue what

687
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 1: he was talking about. He just had no, absolutely no clue,

688
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 1: and was I think I'm going to make an analogy,

689
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 1: and it may not be a perfect analogy, but I

690
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 1: want you to go along with this. Imagine you are

691
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 1: a rabbi in ancient Israel or in the Roman territory

692
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 1: of Palestine, whatever, and you are a rabbi and one

693
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 1: day you're walking along the road and you see Jesus

694
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:55,719
Speaker 1: Christ rise from the dead, and at that moment you

695
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 1: need to either change your beliefs because you've been confronted

696
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 1: by the truth, or you need to double down, in

697
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 1: which what is a lie or what you know is

698
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 1: not true anymore. For Bill Crystal, the Donald Trump election

699
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 1: was that it was wow, something has happened. It was

700
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 1: always there. It's been there since Buchanan run from president

701
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 1: and probably before then. I need to either confront something

702
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,800
Speaker 1: that a lot of my ideas were not the case,

703
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 1: or and you could dislike Trump as a person, but

704
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:29,839
Speaker 1: the ideas are challenging to Crystal's worldview, or double down

705
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 1: on a lie. Crystal chose to double down in a lie.

706
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 1: I have a one of my Twitter followers sends me

707
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 1: actively sends me old tweets of Bill Crystal's from twenty

708
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 1: tens that were just everything was incorrect, and he was

709
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,240
Speaker 1: in his father and he was a bad nettle baby.

710
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,720
Speaker 1: Not every nettle baby is Liza Minelli. Not every neple

711
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:48,759
Speaker 1: baby can sit there and perform and do well. Some

712
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 1: are very talented. Most are not. That's it with him,

713
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 1: Steve Schmidt, in my opinion, allegedly, in my dreams whatever,

714
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 1: I've to sit there and say, I think there's some

715
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 1: issues there going on him personally. I know the McCain

716
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:06,720
Speaker 1: family really dislikes him. That he lied a lot about

717
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 1: John McCain after the presidential race that Steve was on,

718
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of bad blood. And no one

719
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 1: thinks highly of Steve Schmidt in the business. They not

720
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 1: a single person, and I mean Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt.

721
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:24,839
Speaker 1: They run the Lincoln Project. Now, the Lincoln Project used

722
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 1: to make hundreds of millions of dollars. It still makes

723
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 1: millions of dollars. Almost none of it goes to actual campaigning,

724
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 1: right people are making. The amount of money that people

725
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 1: made from the Lincoln Project is gargantuan. It was a

726
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 1: business to being anti Trump, and they a lot of

727
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 1: people made I'm not talking. I'm not just saying they

728
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 1: made like a lot of money, like a million dollars.

729
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: I'm saying they made generational wealth off of making those

730
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 1: Trump videos on Instagram and trying to sit there and

731
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 1: get him and having you know, wine mom. Give them

732
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars, two hundred dollars. It was the greatest

733
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: grift in history. So yeah, there's that. Joe Walsh was

734
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:09,919
Speaker 1: a former congressman. I think he tweeted the N word

735
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 1: a couple of times. He doesn't seem to be all

736
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 1: right in the head. I think I don't think that

737
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:18,240
Speaker 1: he's necessarily a grifter. Adam Kinzinger, I think that Listen,

738
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 1: if you want to run for office, there's a certain

739
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 1: there's a certain part of you that really likes attention,

740
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 1: especially for certain people, not every level of office, but Congress. Yes,

741
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 1: especially if you want to be a congressman who's on

742
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:34,319
Speaker 1: television every twelve and a half seconds, like Adam Kinzinger was.

743
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 1: Adam Kinzinger really loved having attention. He used his allegedly

744
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 1: used his office to chase women everywhere, and he I

745
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 1: think likes to basking the attention. I don't know if

746
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 1: he's really making money off of being an anti Trump Republican,

747
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 1: not certainly the way the Lincoln Project people are. And

748
00:36:57,640 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: obviously we know the Lincoln Project. They had a lot

749
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,359
Speaker 1: of shoes with one of their other co founders who

750
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 1: was using it to pray on young boys. I think

751
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 1: I think allegedly one on them was underage according to

752
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 1: the York Times story. Remember, I broke the story in

753
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 1: the Lincoln Project, so I knew how many underage boys

754
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 1: that he was hitting on, which was funny. I don't

755
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:19,399
Speaker 1: know if I ever told it. Maybe next episode I'll

756
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 1: tell how I broke the Lincoln Project story if you

757
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 1: guys can remember all that. But it's not worth a

758
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 1: whole conversation at this point now. But yeah, I think

759
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 1: it's a mixture. I think it's a mixture of people

760
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 1: who are broken because Trump changed the Republican Party and

761
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 1: changed the way that they were the republic and we

762
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 1: are supposed to function, which means they are the kingmakers

763
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,360
Speaker 1: that they are deciding everything. I think that part of

764
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: it's a grift. People in certain organizations have made tens

765
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 1: of millions of dollars over the last ten years being

766
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 1: opposed to Trump. And I think part of is people

767
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:58,240
Speaker 1: really like attention and are using their runs for office

768
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 1: to generate attention and with no meaningful goal of like

769
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 1: gaining political power again, they just want to sit there

770
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 1: and feed the beast and give themselves likes. So that's

771
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 1: a mixture. That's my answer to it. I don't think

772
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:16,280
Speaker 1: there's many people who have ideological opposition and like George

773
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 1: Conway for example, right, you can't sit there and say

774
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 1: I disagree, I think Trump's a disgusting figure, and then

775
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 1: you're supporting, like you know, changing what kind of gas

776
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 1: stoves we use, Like you know, they've taken their position.

777
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 1: They've taken every Democrat position to the sun. They don't

778
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:33,439
Speaker 1: believe in anything that they've believed in just five years ago.

779
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,280
Speaker 1: That shows a sign of a broken person who really,

780
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 1: you know, was always in the grift. That's my opinion. Anyway,

781
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 1: Thank you guys for listening. I appreciate you. If you

782
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,879
Speaker 1: like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app,

783
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 1: Apple podcasts, or give this podcasts and on YouTube. I

784
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 1: will talk to you guys on Wednesday. Thank you,