1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,000 Speaker 1: By the way, you picked literally the most complex topic 2 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 1: to talk about. I'm not sure if you're aware about that, 3 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: but I'm ready to call Reagon upstairs and I was like, hey, uh, 4 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:08,840 Speaker 1: this is what I'm about to talk about. You is like, 5 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 1: good luck. This episode is brought to you by nat X, 6 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:18,919 Speaker 1: the Binary Options Exchange. Binary Options let you let me 7 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:21,640 Speaker 1: your risk and trade stock in disese commodities for x 8 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: and more from a single account. Nat X is a 9 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: CFTC regulated exchange with transparency, free market data, and fairness guaranteed. 10 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 1: The future of trading is here now at n A 11 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: d e x dot com futures, options and spots. Trading 12 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:44,919 Speaker 1: involves risk and may not be appropriate for all investors. Hi, 13 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: and welcome back to Bloomberg Benchmark Up podcast about the 14 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 1: global economy. It is Thursday, January four. I'm Tori stillwell 15 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 1: and economics reporter with Bloomberg News in d C. And 16 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: I am joined by my co host, Akido, our editor 17 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 1: for Benchmark, who has completed her move to Tokyo and 18 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 1: is joining us as the Tokyo Bureau chief. Welcome Maki, 19 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 1: Hey Tori, how's it going. It's going great. How's Tokyo 20 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:15,959 Speaker 1: it's it's great. It's snowed yesterday, which is kind of cool. 21 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:19,680 Speaker 1: Oh wow. Does that happen often in Tokyo? Not not 22 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: that often. Maybe a couple of times a year, but 23 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 1: it's usually too warm for the snow to actually stick 24 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 1: on the ground, So no, no snowman, very exciting. Well, welcome, 25 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 1: You're You're like in tomorrow right now, which is pretty cool. 26 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 1: I'm from the future right. Well, you've been gone for 27 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: a couple of days, so I wanted to fill you 28 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: in on probably the biggest topic that's happened since you've 29 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: been away. But it's also an issue that's pretty close 30 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 1: to you all um in Asia as well, and that 31 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 1: has been just the massive amount of turbulence that has 32 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: rocked stock markets around the world so far this year. 33 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: All started with China, which already has a notoriously volatile 34 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:09,920 Speaker 1: stock market because there's so much participation from retail investors, 35 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: individual investors, not you know, the big groups that we 36 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,799 Speaker 1: think of here in the US. So there was a 37 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: sell off in China. It was apparently sparked by fears 38 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: about the government's ability to manage the economy and as 39 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 1: well as the drop in the yuan and that unease 40 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:28,639 Speaker 1: spread around the world. Last week, in the US, the 41 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 1: Standard and Poors five hundred indecks posted its worst ever 42 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: stopped start to the year, losing six percent of its value. 43 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 1: And I guess we touched on a lot of these 44 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 1: problems that China is currently facing back in September when 45 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 1: we first started the show, and it seems like investors 46 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 1: are still worried about a lot of those issues that 47 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: we discussed with Ken at the time. But really, you 48 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 1: know how much has changed in China between the end 49 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:02,359 Speaker 1: and the beginning of to warrant, you know, an additional 50 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: sell off like this Looking at economic conditions, it doesn't 51 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: seem like it's a whole lot. There hasn't been a 52 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 1: sharp slowdown, and it's just kind of this trend towards 53 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 1: softer growth that's been there for a while exactly. And 54 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,239 Speaker 1: all that got us thinking how much of a connection 55 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: actually exists between a nation's stock market and its economy. 56 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: How often do stock markets tank because the economy is suffering? 57 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: And how often is a route mostly just nervous investors 58 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 1: following the herd and freaking out. And then we also 59 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: want to take a look at the reverse, when does 60 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: a crumbling stock market start hurting the real economy and 61 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 1: how exactly what that happen? Well, lucky for us to 62 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 1: answer these questions and more, we're bringing on Oliver Rennick, 63 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 1: our colleague on the stocks team in New York. Hey. However, 64 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 1: Hey guys, how's it going, Oliver? What's kind of your 65 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: typical day? Like? Yeah, so like cover US equities UM 66 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: in New York. Largely, a lot of what we do 67 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 1: is sort of analysis of what's happening during the day, 68 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: and a lot of analysis of what just happened, so 69 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 1: as opposed to some more traditional journalistic beats as people 70 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: think about it or they break news and move markets. Ideally, 71 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg, a lot of what we do is trying 72 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 1: to figure out what's happening and what happened, and uh, 73 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:18,840 Speaker 1: the best we can do is try and find some 74 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 1: kind of reason. As many readers happily right into us 75 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: that you know, you're assessment of what happened in the 76 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 1: stock market days is the exact same explanation you have 77 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:31,600 Speaker 1: for when it was down as when it was etcetera 78 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:36,599 Speaker 1: basically yearful baloney, right, some people would argue, But we 79 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: try to do a good job characterizing what's happening? Um, 80 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 1: more so what is happening rather than why? But uh, 81 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 1: and then we'll also dive a little deeper looking into 82 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 1: story of the granulars of the market, whether it's derivatives, volatility, earnings, 83 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 1: stuff like that that is going to be h that 84 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: is going to pertain to somebody who is has money 85 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 1: at stake. Well, let's start by zooming out and defining 86 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:03,359 Speaker 1: what exactly the stock market is not, not just like, oh, 87 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 1: it's this index and it's got all these different member 88 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 1: companies in it. Like years ago, I learned in my 89 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: introductory finance or economics classes that the stock market measures 90 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: investors perceptions of future earnings of companies. Is that roughly right? 91 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: Any other way we should be thinking of it? Yeah, 92 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,119 Speaker 1: that's uh, that's pretty solid. Um. I think that's uh, 93 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,479 Speaker 1: that's good assessment. I think another way to sort of 94 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: phrase that same idea, that's really about allocation of capital. Um. 95 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: So what you're talking about is journally sort of the 96 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,119 Speaker 1: market moves, and this is touching on the same idea. 97 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: Anytime you have a stock that loses value or it 98 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:44,040 Speaker 1: gains value, what that is doing is telling you that investors. 99 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,600 Speaker 1: Then I think that their money is going to get 100 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,599 Speaker 1: better use elsewhere. If Microsoft is down one day, it 101 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 1: may not mean that investors are very barish on Microsoft 102 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 1: and that they think that the company is, you know, 103 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:58,680 Speaker 1: going to lose money over the next however many years 104 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: or quarters. What it might mean is that they just 105 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 1: think their money is better allocated with Apple or um 106 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 1: or something totally unrelated, like a biogen you know, biotech 107 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,359 Speaker 1: stock or something like that. So olive Our you cover 108 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:14,239 Speaker 1: the US markets, and this has been a really terrible 109 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 1: start to tell us what's going on here and why 110 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 1: the stock markets have dominated headlines in recent days. Yeah, 111 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 1: it has you know, as good as a stock markets reporter, 112 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: because volatility means people want to ask questions. It's a 113 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 1: security Yeah. When when economics reporters, Yeah, when there's green 114 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:36,840 Speaker 1: on the tape every day, people just kind of let 115 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 1: it go and they don't ask a lot of questions. 116 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 1: But you get read and you get some volatility and 117 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 1: suddenly a lot of demand for stock reporters. So basically, 118 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: I mean this year, you have a lot of things 119 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: that have sort of been a benefit to stocks that 120 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:51,480 Speaker 1: are starting to fall away. Interest rate policy has now changed. 121 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 1: You don't have the easy policy, you can start to 122 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 1: see value in other assets apart from stocks, and then 123 00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 1: you have the global growth issue, which sort of overhangs 124 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 1: on every thing. And then of course in tandem with 125 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:06,160 Speaker 1: that comes this commodity issues. Bloomber commodity index got crushed 126 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:08,839 Speaker 1: again today. That's starting to have effects outside of the 127 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: energy space industrial materials. People start to wonder how far 128 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 1: that could spread. So is it just people worry about 129 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 1: companies profits or they're just scared in general about what 130 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: global growth is going to be like? Because I know 131 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 1: the outlook for global growth hasn't been amazing for even 132 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: the last couple years. I would say, Um, why is 133 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: all this coming crashing down now? And why is fear 134 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 1: about other markets, particularly China even affecting the US markets? 135 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 1: If consumers are still buying stuff here, if job growth 136 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 1: looks great as it has the last few months right now, 137 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: that's a that's a great question, And I think that's 138 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 1: part of the reason why people are gett embarrassed right 139 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 1: now because they look to the future and there's not 140 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: a whole lot of um encouragement when you look out 141 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 1: to earnings over the course in the next two quarters, 142 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: we've got negative expectations for earnings and quite negative. Next 143 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 1: quarter is going to be the fourth quarter consive in 144 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 1: which we've dropped third quarter year over year dropping, you're 145 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:05,119 Speaker 1: going to see earnings down roughly six to seven percent. 146 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 1: So when you look at the other side of the grass, 147 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 1: doesn't exactly look necessarily greener. Um. And then the other 148 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 1: thing about global growth, Yes, this is the story that's 149 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 1: been going, but now without sort of the backstop of 150 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: lower interest rates, without the backstop of cheap financing, that 151 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: eventually will start to get little bit more expensive and 152 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: you'll have some of the buy backs, the dividends, uh is, 153 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 1: those types of things fade away. You start to wonder 154 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 1: what's going to prop up stocks. Hopefully it would be earnings, 155 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 1: but if they're not there, then you really start to 156 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 1: question things. Yeah, that's a great point. Well, the three 157 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 1: of us are immersed in financial and economic news on 158 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: a daily basis, but most people aren't, and as a result, 159 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 1: much of what they think about the state of economy 160 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:48,319 Speaker 1: is probably based off of a combination of three things. 161 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 1: Their paycheck, gas prices, or the stock market. I mean, 162 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 1: my mom, who some of our listeners may remember from 163 00:08:55,360 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: a previous episode, she does not care about the stock market. It. Um, 164 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: you know, she has a car, she has a paycheck, 165 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 1: but the stock market could is probably one of the 166 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 1: things furthest from her mind. But even she texted me 167 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: last week Ali being like, what's going on with the 168 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:15,680 Speaker 1: stock market? Um? So I mean, does does this mean 169 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: that the stock market is reflective of what's going on 170 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 1: the economy and mom should be freaking out about her job? 171 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 1: Is it reflective of it or is it affecting it? 172 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: Let's hit that first piece first. The short answer is 173 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 1: your mom probably shouldn't get too upset. Um. Overall, the 174 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,080 Speaker 1: US economy is strong, and when you look at people 175 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 1: strategists across the marketing ask them what their most bullish 176 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 1: cases based on, it's the based on the fact that 177 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 1: US economy is still the best house on the block. Um. 178 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:47,679 Speaker 1: But that being said, the stock market and the economy 179 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 1: are obviously linked. To try and draw conclusions about what 180 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:55,199 Speaker 1: the economy UH can say about the stock market and 181 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 1: vice versa gets very complicated. But here's what we can 182 00:09:58,080 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: say to touch on the first part is it is 183 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:06,440 Speaker 1: orically speaking, stock market weakness does sometimes UH presage a 184 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 1: recession in the economy. What it needs to be is 185 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: not at seven ten route in stock it's not a 186 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 1: seven percent routes since the beginning of your five percent 187 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 1: whatever at after day that you really start getting getting 188 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,560 Speaker 1: you thinking about where the economy is going. Is or 189 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,440 Speaker 1: more declines the bearer markets and stocks that have occurred 190 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: um thirteen times since the Great Depression, and now ten 191 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,200 Speaker 1: of them preceded US recessions. That's a pretty good rate 192 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 1: when you look at those type of declines UM. But 193 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 1: just because you know you have volatility increasing, just because 194 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 1: you have a different stock market trading environment where you 195 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 1: get bigger ups and bigger downs, it's no reason to 196 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 1: you know, panic and start looking for other jobs, etcetera. 197 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:46,559 Speaker 1: The stock market is included in the Conference Boards Index 198 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 1: of Leading Economic Indicators for just that reason. It does 199 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 1: have some sort of predictive value and roughly over the 200 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 1: course of many, many, many business cycles, they are correlated, UM, 201 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 1: so we know that there is a link there. And 202 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: also going back to what we talked about with future earnings, 203 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 1: if the stock market is going down, people probably think 204 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 1: that future earnings aren't looking very good, which may mean 205 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:13,319 Speaker 1: that consumers and businesses aren't buying as much stuff. And 206 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:17,480 Speaker 1: given that consumption is the economy. That's not really a 207 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: great picture, right, of course. Not. The other thing that 208 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people are waiting for is 209 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 1: the boon as you mentioned, Okay, you as as an 210 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 1: average American, you look at your paycheck, you look at 211 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: gas prices, you look at where your money is coming 212 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 1: in and where it's going out. And one of the 213 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 1: things a lot of people have been waiting for to 214 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: have a boost to the economy is the lower oil prices. 215 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: But in fact, this is just sort of a a 216 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 1: good example of how things are so inter related. You 217 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 1: would think the lower oil prices would have a big 218 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 1: boon on the consumer spending, that they would go out 219 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 1: and spend, But we haven't really quite seen that impact 220 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 1: that we have from the practical tax breaker that comes 221 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 1: with lower oil because in fact, we're still kind of 222 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 1: coming out of a period from two thousand seven two 223 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: tho eight, a recession in which people still are paying 224 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: down debts and which they still more interested in saving. 225 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 1: They're a little bit scarred from that period, uh, and 226 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: so they're not quite putting that money to work as 227 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 1: you might think. So that sort of relationship between the 228 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 1: economy and stocks, it's not always clear. When stocks predict recessions, 229 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:17,199 Speaker 1: that's a pretty solid indicator historically. But the reverse the 230 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 1: economy indicating what happens with stocks is it gets pretty 231 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 1: hairy and it's not really a great predictor. And I 232 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 1: think it's just important to know that stock investors they're 233 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 1: investing based on their bets on the future, and bets 234 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 1: can often be wrong. Um as we all know as 235 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 1: economics journalists asking for economists forecasts all the time, but 236 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:39,839 Speaker 1: sometimes they're right. Well, we are going to take a 237 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 1: quick break here and when we come back, we're going 238 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: to discuss at what point a stock market route may 239 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 1: begin to affect the real economy despite everything that we 240 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 1: just talked about. After this break, what do traders want 241 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:58,440 Speaker 1: to limit risk? Access every opportunity and trade on a 242 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: level playing field. Nat X binary options let you set 243 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:03,840 Speaker 1: your maximum profit and loss before the trade, so your 244 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 1: risk is always limited. 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So I think 253 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:47,439 Speaker 1: one important development to note in all this discussion about 254 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 1: volatility and the stock market in the economy is is 255 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 1: what economists are thinking, and especially Federal Reserve economists and 256 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 1: leaders at the Central Bank, how they are approaching this 257 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,439 Speaker 1: because they have some very big decisions on their hands 258 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 1: this year. They just started there tightening psychlarly, are increasing 259 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 1: interest rates and UM in August, back when we had 260 00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 1: our past episode about China, they were actually prompted to 261 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,719 Speaker 1: hold off and delay an interest rate increase in September 262 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 1: due to some of the volatility that we were seeing UM. 263 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 1: The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's president, Dennis Lockhart said 264 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 1: that he is not super concerned that equity terminal will 265 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: hurt the U S economy. He said, if the volatility 266 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: continues for several weeks, he may have to revise that view, 267 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 1: but right now he doesn't see a connection between financial 268 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 1: markets abroad and the real economy here. It's just a 269 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 1: matter of how long it lasts. UM. So I thought 270 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: that was really interesting. And an economist that I spoke 271 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: with on this topic earlier in the week said, there's 272 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 1: a lot of emotion and ankst in the stock market, 273 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 1: and sometimes sell offs can become a sort of self 274 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 1: fulfilling prophecy, and it may create he is, less than 275 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 1: ideal economic conditions. So let's talk about how that might happen, or, 276 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 1: in Lockhart's words, how we might see this financial market 277 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: volatility translate into the real economy. Again, this is you 278 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 1: kind of get into this sort of circular type of 279 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 1: relationship within between all these different things. And I think 280 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 1: part of what he's saying is very is very true 281 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 1: that uh, at some point down the road, Yes, if 282 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 1: you have stock market weakness, if you have volatility, it's 283 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: going to UH, It's it's going to cause people to 284 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 1: either say, Okay, I want to put more money in 285 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 1: uh in the bank, I want to put more cash 286 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 1: under my mattress. However you want to think about it. 287 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 1: But I would just say that this kind of comes 288 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 1: back to the concept of allocation of capital, which is 289 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: that if the underlying economy is strong, if you have 290 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 1: because you've got basically two different separate things. You've got 291 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 1: volatility in stocks and the underlying economy. So volatility and 292 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 1: stocks they can be very volatile in a very good 293 00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 1: economic environment. They work for a very long time. And 294 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:02,920 Speaker 1: because of that, that doesn't necessarily mean that money coming 295 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: out of it is going too is lost money. What 296 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: it means it's going to be put elsewhere. And if 297 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 1: the economy is strong, we have the unemployment rate continuing 298 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 1: to improve, you have housing continuing to improve, largely pre 299 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 1: solid economy. Then if people are you know, are saying, listen, 300 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 1: I don't want to get involved in the stock market 301 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 1: as it's starting to get vaulatile, bounced around, They're just 302 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: gonna put that money elsewhere. Hopefully they'll put it into 303 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 1: purchasing items and do purchasing homes rather than stuffing on 304 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:30,600 Speaker 1: their bed. But then you come back to the sentiment issue, 305 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 1: which is a lot of people now are kind of 306 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 1: worried that oh semin o way. I mean you guys, 307 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 1: I think graduate around the same time I did from 308 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 1: high school, went to college in no. Seven away. My 309 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 1: parents were all about, you know, study engineer and get 310 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 1: a career that's going to you know, survive whatever happens 311 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 1: for the next recession. I mean, people definitely have that 312 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: in their mindset. Still. Yeah, well, let's think about it 313 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: this way. You know, I have a small broker's account 314 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 1: from the very little money that I managed to save 315 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 1: in San Francisco, and uh, you know, I take a 316 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: look at my brokers like maybe once every two weeks 317 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 1: or so, and it's been doing pretty poorly because they're 318 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:09,720 Speaker 1: mostly in you know, SMPI, et fs and things like that. 319 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:13,120 Speaker 1: So it very closely tracks the health of the overall 320 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 1: US stock market. And when I see numbers like that, 321 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: I the next time I think about making a big purchase, 322 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: like I've been wanting to get my fourth bike, which 323 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 1: many people tell me is excessive, but I want a 324 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 1: new one, and I think about my broker's account and 325 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:32,640 Speaker 1: how it really has been going down. Uh, it makes 326 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: me think twice about those big purchases, that's right, and 327 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:37,239 Speaker 1: about I think I want to list out some of 328 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 1: these stats that I have from the Survey of consumer 329 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 1: Finances from the Federal Reserve. About forty nine percent, so 330 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:48,400 Speaker 1: roughly half of households held stock either directly or indirectly, 331 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 1: in which Tori by the way is an amazing number 332 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 1: because in Japan, I think it's only like ten or fifteen. Really, yeah, 333 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 1: in the U S it's such a high ratio. Right, well, 334 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: most of families that do hold stock to it through 335 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 1: a retirement account. So the thinking is, if people see 336 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 1: their retirement accounts getting hit or like uauki you see 337 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: or other accounts getting hit, they might pull back and 338 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 1: they're spending. I mean even my for a one my 339 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:16,919 Speaker 1: measly little for a one K account that I have 340 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 1: as a twenty five year old is with very little 341 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 1: money in it right now. But it sent me like 342 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 1: this flashing message at the very top, like a banner message. 343 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 1: In light of the recent market volatility, remember that your 344 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 1: retirement plan is intended for long term investment. Attempts to 345 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 1: time the market are rarely successful. Is that code for 346 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 1: you will never retire? I can't really do, guys, as 347 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:49,680 Speaker 1: I strictly trade high volatility drivatives instruments. So the transmission 348 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 1: here is obviously household wealth. People see that their retirement 349 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 1: accounts down by however much money, They see their direct 350 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:00,440 Speaker 1: holding stock of stocks down by however much money, and 351 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: they freak, um, they think that's money that they don't 352 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 1: have to spend anymore um and and they're not going 353 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 1: to They're going to pull back purchases. I also want 354 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 1: to talk about tighter financial conditions here because I think 355 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 1: this is a really important piece of how a stock 356 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 1: market route or stock market volatility in general could affect 357 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 1: the real economy. Interesting. Now, tighter financial conditions is is 358 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,640 Speaker 1: a good topic because what we've actually seen is sort 359 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 1: of a natural tightening of conditions. So basically, we've been 360 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: waiting for this first rate hike and it finally happened, 361 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: and it was all celebrated the quarter point that we 362 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 1: finally got. But there was a period there, obviously where 363 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,360 Speaker 1: tapering was tightening as well, and you saw this sort 364 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:41,479 Speaker 1: of happen in credit spreads, and you saw this happened 365 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: in in bond markets. That there was a natural sort 366 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 1: of tightening of markets in general. Um, what I think 367 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 1: it means for the stock market at large, and I 368 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 1: think one of the most interesting stories will hopefully be 369 00:19:55,840 --> 00:20:00,119 Speaker 1: the rise in diversification of returns and diversion with the 370 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 1: stock market. Uh sorry, dispersion. So dispersion over the course 371 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 1: of the past four years has been very limited. That's 372 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 1: just the difference in terms of how each stock returns. 373 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,159 Speaker 1: Everything's been moving together. So when we talk about you 374 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 1: and I, maybe we have a four O one K 375 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 1: and it kind of stinks when you look at it 376 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:16,920 Speaker 1: and it's down. But there's a lot of investors out there. 377 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 1: They are waiting for volatilting. They want to be able 378 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 1: to see opportunities for which one stock is distinguished from another. 379 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,880 Speaker 1: And as you have time to financial conditions, those companies 380 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: are going to start to move independently of another, So 381 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: the theory goes. People have been saying that largely for 382 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,920 Speaker 1: the better course of eighteen months, and it hasn't quite happened. 383 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 1: But now that we have these different conditions, you don't 384 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,360 Speaker 1: have that same upward float of all the boats. Uh. 385 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 1: It could make things possibly more interesting and advantageous for investors. 386 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 1: And let's also remember that at the end of the day, 387 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 1: people who have money in the stock market are people 388 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,159 Speaker 1: who have done relatively well. You know, people who have 389 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 1: four O one case, they have like relatively good jobs. 390 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 1: And there are a lot of you know, low income 391 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 1: workers out there who have zero money in the stock market. 392 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 1: So for them it probably doesn't matter that much until 393 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 1: it feeds into the real real economy, like their job 394 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 1: prospects deteriorate. Um. But for our really rich people, for example, 395 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:17,679 Speaker 1: most of their wealth is in equities. So I have 396 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 1: a stat for you about of of top ten percent 397 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 1: earners and when we're when we're looking at the income 398 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 1: distribution of them held stocks in and for earners in 399 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 1: the lower half, that figure is closer to another. Another 400 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 1: point we want to address here is uncertainty. Obviously, um, 401 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 1: any time the stock market is bouncing around like this, 402 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 1: it causes people to kind of take a step back. 403 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:53,400 Speaker 1: And also looking at a broader context, people are continuously 404 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 1: wondering what the Federal Reserve is going to do, what 405 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 1: its next move is. And if they're kind of wondering, 406 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 1: all right, how is the Fed going to think about 407 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,640 Speaker 1: the stock market, they're gonna kind of hold back on 408 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,640 Speaker 1: any big plans that they may be doing. And if 409 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,160 Speaker 1: if you're a business, and if you're a big business, 410 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,480 Speaker 1: this is this sort of becomes a problem in terms 411 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 1: of your investment plans, and that's where it could start 412 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 1: to hit. Everyday people like Ak was saying, Um, you know, 413 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 1: maybe they're gonna wait to hire until some of this 414 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 1: volatility shakes out back in the slate summer, I guess 415 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:31,120 Speaker 1: we'll call August and September. We did see UH, payrolls 416 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,119 Speaker 1: kind of drop off a little bit. In September they 417 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,000 Speaker 1: rose by just a hundred forty five thousand. That compares 418 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 1: with two in December, So people really did take a 419 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 1: step back and kind of gauge where things were going 420 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,119 Speaker 1: before ramping up hiring again. So guys, let's get to 421 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:51,440 Speaker 1: the bottom line here. Should we be worried about what's 422 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 1: going in the stock market right now depends on your 423 00:22:55,920 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 1: risk profile, but probably any time in each time you 424 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:04,240 Speaker 1: have I think anytime you have quarter over quarter over 425 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 1: quarter of year over year decreases and earnings which we're 426 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,159 Speaker 1: expected to get the third one UM disc coming a 427 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 1: couple of weeks, really you have to start to look 428 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 1: at what's going on. UM. There are a lot of 429 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,119 Speaker 1: people out there that are pretty bearish UM for reasons 430 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 1: that many investors would disagree with. But I think the 431 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,840 Speaker 1: most sound, simple argument you can make for why you 432 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:25,879 Speaker 1: need to start thinking about what's happening in stocks right 433 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 1: now is because of the underlying picture for companies is 434 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 1: not terribly great. It's projected to recover a lot of 435 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,920 Speaker 1: it is related to what's happening in the commodity space, 436 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,840 Speaker 1: what's happening with oil, and what's happening as a result 437 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 1: of diverging economic policies around the world and its effect 438 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: on the dollar. How much of that is temporary. It's 439 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 1: gonna be very important because we're now starting to see 440 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,640 Speaker 1: it not just happening energy but in other stocks as well. Um, 441 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:52,479 Speaker 1: and that's going to be very meaningful, whether or not 442 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,359 Speaker 1: it's going to mean a bear market, whether or not 443 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,920 Speaker 1: it's going to mean ten you know down this year, 444 00:23:58,080 --> 00:23:59,560 Speaker 1: or if it's just going to mean more of a 445 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 1: stock pickers environment as the stock market that's driven by 446 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: companies that it really has been the past year, like Netflix, Amazon, Uh, 447 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,399 Speaker 1: innovative companies that separate themselves from the rest of the pack. That's, 448 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,919 Speaker 1: you know, is another result here. So but it doesn't 449 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 1: necessarily mean that our economy is going down the toilet exactly. Well, Oliver, 450 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,399 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Thanks guys, I 451 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: appreciate it, Thanks for tuning into Bloomberg Benchmark. Will be 452 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 1: back again next week. Until then, you can find us 453 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal and on Bloomberg dot com and 454 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 1: also on iTunes, pocket Cast, Stitch, your Google Play, and 455 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,359 Speaker 1: all the other platforms. While you're there, please take a 456 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,080 Speaker 1: minute to rate and review our shows so more people 457 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 1: can find us and let us know what you thought 458 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,359 Speaker 1: of the show. You can talk to us and follow 459 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,880 Speaker 1: us on Twitter. First, our guests thank you so much again. 460 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,679 Speaker 1: Oliver is that at O J Rennick R E N 461 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 1: I C K O J like you know who? And 462 00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 1: at a kid to seven at Tori stillwell for me 463 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:06,439 Speaker 1: see next week. 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