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Speaker 1: One up, guys, how are you happy Sunday? Welcome in

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Speaker 1: to another episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name

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Speaker 1: is Matt Perraultz. You guys can follow me across all

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Speaker 1: of my socials at Sports Talking Matt and this podcast

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Speaker 1: being brought to you by our friends at DraftKings. Well, yikes,

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Speaker 1: yesterday was not good. Dogs got smoked. Oftentimes when the

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Speaker 1: public does well, and I'm on dogs, I bet dogs

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Speaker 1: more than favorites, I get killed. It was tight. I mean,

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Speaker 1: give the books credit. The numbers were right there. I

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Speaker 1: mean Vandy loses by thirteen Alabama Texas. I mean we're

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Speaker 1: all talking about one score right, one score difference between

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Speaker 1: covering and not the bad bet Ohio State Michigan. That

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Speaker 1: game became nowhere near going over. That was a dead

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Speaker 1: under game thirteen ten final for Michigan. But the bummer

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Speaker 1: I would take it a three and one day didn't happen.

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Speaker 1: The saving grace and this is you know, some of

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Speaker 1: you guys get angry about this, but I don't really

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Speaker 1: like either you guys are with us or you're not okay.

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Speaker 1: But our futures all came in. We went to oh

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Speaker 1: to one in the futures market and really that's what

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Speaker 1: saved the day for me. Auburn no, Vandy, no, Texas

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Speaker 1: A and m no, Ohio State, Michigan no. However, Iowa

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Speaker 1: State over yes, over nine and a half wins for Miami. Yes,

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Speaker 1: Iowa goes and gets eight wins eight and four. Farance

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Speaker 1: comes in again to oh and one on our futures,

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Speaker 1: oh to four. If you took the extra play from

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Speaker 1: the live chat on Saturday morning, I gave you Arizona

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Speaker 1: State minus not on mine. Eight that came in that cashed,

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Speaker 1: So overall for me, I had a winning day. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is one of the things I talk about a lot.

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Speaker 1: I bet more than one unit on futures, and some

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Speaker 1: of you guys have asked me, well, how many units

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Speaker 1: do you put down? It really varies. It can be

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Speaker 1: as high as five. Just depends on how comfortable I

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Speaker 1: am with the future. So that just depends upon however

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Speaker 1: however long you want your money wrapped up. Like on

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Speaker 1: the Iowa State future, I had five units on the

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Speaker 1: Iowa State Future. I had four units on the Iowa

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Speaker 1: Future that pushed. I had three units on the future

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Speaker 1: for Miami. I also have a personal play on Miami

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Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. That's probably dead. I put one

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Speaker 1: unit down on that at plus two fifty. I think

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Speaker 1: you got that to forty. I got that at so

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Speaker 1: that's probably dead. But I put more money down than

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Speaker 1: one unit. I just use it for accounting purposes and

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Speaker 1: for the show's sake. I just go ahead and say

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Speaker 1: it's one unit. But I had a winning day yesterday,

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Speaker 1: so I feel I mean, I'm excited to go into Sunday.

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Speaker 1: A lot of you guys are angry. I got my

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Speaker 1: first death threat. That was fun on Instagram. I appreciate

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Speaker 1: the guy who did that. That was cool. I got

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Speaker 1: the guy who told me that I hope your girlfriend

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Speaker 1: leaves you. I appreciate that. It's, you know, the holidays

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Speaker 1: and all, so I appreciate all that. So it's it's fun.

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Speaker 1: You know, the internet's a fun place to be at times.

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Speaker 1: People are really they're really nice. They're you know, the

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Speaker 1: people who live on the internet are kind souls. So

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Speaker 1: as I say, like, and as I entered to one

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Speaker 1: person who said to me, were you mad when I

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Speaker 1: went eight and one in the NFL? Like, were you?

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Speaker 1: Were you writing me these dms? When I went eight

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Speaker 1: and one in the NFL like it's it's just how

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Speaker 1: this goes, right, Like you can pick and choose when

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Speaker 1: you want to fade or when you want to follow.

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Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, it's not my money.

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Speaker 1: It's your money. It's what you guys do with it.

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Speaker 1: I just tell you what I'm betting. You could fade

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Speaker 1: or follow it. You can come with or you can

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Speaker 1: go against it and do whatever you want. Yesterday was bad.

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Speaker 1: That past two days I was right. I mean, look, NFL,

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Speaker 1: I'm hot, College, I'm ice. That's just the way this

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Speaker 1: stuff goes. I've told you guys this for years. It's

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Speaker 1: really rare that I am ever hot in both or

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Speaker 1: cold in both. To be quite honest, it's not It's

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Speaker 1: rare for me to be cold in both college and

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Speaker 1: the NFL. So numbers are sharp, books are no books

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Speaker 1: are on it. This is hard late in the year

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Speaker 1: in college, in pro football, late in the year, tough stuff. So,

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Speaker 1: as you guys know, when I come off of losing

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Speaker 1: day like that, officially, I don't go crazy. I don't

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Speaker 1: give you guys a thousand plays. I've got three bets,

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Speaker 1: two sides, one teaser, and then we'll have the NFL

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Speaker 1: live stream coming at you Pep Bits Morris and myself

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Speaker 1: at noon eastern nine am Pacific time on the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel. I'll give you four player props I like.

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Speaker 1: For that, we'll talk line movement. If there's a long

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Speaker 1: teaser opportunity, I'm leaving the door open for it. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm leaving the door to add another teaser. I've got

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Speaker 1: one officially here. I may do another one on the

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Speaker 1: live stream depending upon how things play out, so be

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Speaker 1: watching for that on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Pap

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Speaker 1: Bits Morrison, myself at noon eastern nine am Pacific time

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Speaker 1: here on the YouTube channel for Betting Pros. This podcast

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Speaker 1: is being brought to you by DraftKings and the Pick

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Speaker 1: dot draftkinks dot com slash promos. Okay, let's get into

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Speaker 1: three plays here for today. Let's start with Pittsburgh at Cincinnati.

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Speaker 1: I'm back on the Bengals. I was gonna be off

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Speaker 1: the Bengals. I'm back on the Bengals. Why am I

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Speaker 1: back on the Bengals because I like the spot. Back

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Speaker 1: to back road games four the Steelers. They nearly lost,

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Speaker 1: they should have lost to the Ravens at home, they

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Speaker 1: won because of two missed field goals by Justin Tucker.

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Speaker 1: They then went to Cleveland and they lost the game

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Speaker 1: by five. They're now on the road to Cincinnati. Three

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Speaker 1: consecutive Conference Sorry Division games for the Steelers, and now

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Speaker 1: they're on the road for a second straight week, this

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Speaker 1: time going back to Ohio to play against Cincinnati. The

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Speaker 1: Bengals are coming off of a loss to the Chargers

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Speaker 1: and a loss to the Ravens, both those games on

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Speaker 1: the road. They come back home where they last played

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Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders, and they scored and they won

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Speaker 1: by seventeen points as eight point favorites. Awesome trend note

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Speaker 1: here from the Action Network. The Bengals are four and

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Speaker 1: seven straight up. They're a favorite against an eight and

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Speaker 1: three straight up Steelers team. This is just the fifth

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Speaker 1: time in the Wildcart Era a team with a winning

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Speaker 1: percentage of thirty s to seven percent or less is

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Speaker 1: a favorite against a team with a winning percentage of

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Speaker 1: seventy two percent or more in the month of December

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Speaker 1: or later. It's the first time since twenty seventeen that

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Speaker 1: it has happened. The team listed as the favorite is

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Speaker 1: four and oh straight up and four and oh against

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Speaker 1: the spread, covering by almost two touchdowns per game, winning

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Speaker 1: by an average of just under twenty points per game,

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Speaker 1: meaning this game normally isn't close. Everyone's saying, don't let

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Speaker 1: the Bengals get hot, don't let the Bengals get hot. Well, look,

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Speaker 1: the Bengals are six and five ats on the year.

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Speaker 1: They're four and seven straight up. They basically have to

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Speaker 1: win out every week is basically a playoff game for

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow in company. This Dealer's defense is only giving

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Speaker 1: up sixteen point nine points per game. That's number three

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. They're giving up just three hundred and

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Speaker 1: five yards per offense. They're giving up just five point

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Speaker 1: two yards per play. That's top ten. They're giving up

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Speaker 1: four yards per rush. But the pass defense has been

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Speaker 1: a little bit suspects. They give it up two hundred

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Speaker 1: fourteen point nine's per yard per game through the air.

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Speaker 1: That's seventeenth in the NFL. That's middle of the pack.

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Speaker 1: They're twelve in opposing yards per pass play at seven.

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Speaker 1: The Bengals average seven point four yards per pass play.

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Speaker 1: The Bengals average two hundred and sixty seven point seven

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Speaker 1: passing yards per game. That's number one in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: They don't run the ball very much. They really can't

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Speaker 1: run the ball, but they can throw. That's the difference. Look,

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Speaker 1: the offense for the Steelers has been impressive, there's no

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Speaker 1: debating at the scoring twenty three points per game. The

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Speaker 1: Bengals are giving up twenty seven points per game. That's

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Speaker 1: not good. They're getting run on with four point four

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Speaker 1: yards per rush. But guess what. The Steelers don't run

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Speaker 1: the ball like at all. They don't run the ball

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Speaker 1: at all. They're twenty seventh in the NFL three point

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Speaker 1: nine yards per rush. That's not good. They're running the

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Speaker 1: ball a lot just for basically like nothing. Like no yards.

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Speaker 1: They can't pick it up. They try a lot, but

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Speaker 1: they don't run the ball that often. One hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty five yards per game is top ten, but just

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Speaker 1: not big production, big runs. Kind of a on the road.

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Speaker 1: I don't know pass defense for since he's pretty good

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Speaker 1: pass offense, and Pittsburgh's been better obviously when they have

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson in this game throwing the football. But again,

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Speaker 1: this game means more. It's the third straight game. I

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Speaker 1: thought going into this it was going to be a

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Speaker 1: one in two or an zero to three mark for

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Speaker 1: the Steelers with these conference in these division games that

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Speaker 1: they're playing, I'm laying the two and a half. Once

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Speaker 1: it got down below a field goal, I'm taking Cincinnati

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Speaker 1: minus two and a half for one point one units.

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Speaker 1: Bet number two. Let's go to the Rams at the Saints.

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Speaker 1: The Rams are a road favorite. Couple of interesting trend

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Speaker 1: of No Tier teams that lose by seventeen or more

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Speaker 1: points who who won by seventeen or more points in

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Speaker 1: the previous week, so blowout win, blowout loss the next week.

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Speaker 1: They're one fourteen and seventy nine ats. That's fifty nine

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Speaker 1: percent over the last twenty years sixty percent, basically covering

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Speaker 1: when they come back the next week afterwards. This is

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Speaker 1: going to be wild. Derek Carr the Saints dra off

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Speaker 1: for a buy, which is weird right, normally like bet

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Speaker 1: the team off a bye, but Derek Carr is three

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Speaker 1: and seven straight up in four and six against the

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Speaker 1: number coming off of a full buy in his career

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Speaker 1: since twenty seventeen. After a full buy, Derek Carr is

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Speaker 1: one in six straight up in one in six against

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Speaker 1: the number. That's the worst quarterback ATS in the NFL

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Speaker 1: over eighty one different quarterbacks who have played in the

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Speaker 1: league who have had a bye week. Something funky happens

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Speaker 1: with Derek Carr and the bye for whatever reason. On

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Speaker 1: top of the fact that he has really done poorly

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Speaker 1: against defenses that allow a lot of points, and the

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Speaker 1: Rams allow a lot of points. Defense is allowing twenty

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Speaker 1: one more points per game on the year, He's thirty

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Speaker 1: seven sixty and three ats thirty seven sixty and three.

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Speaker 1: Like what the heck of the two two and sixty

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Speaker 1: nine quarterbacks the Action Network ran with their bet Labs

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Speaker 1: database over the last twenty years, Carr is the least

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Speaker 1: profitable quarterback ATS in this spot, like two hundred and

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Speaker 1: sixty nine, Derek Carr is a dead last place. I

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Speaker 1: just not good. This is he's good against defenses that

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Speaker 1: are good. He's profitable when it's gonna be a low scoring,

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Speaker 1: tight football game when it might be wide open. Not

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Speaker 1: good at all. On top of the fact that Derek

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Speaker 1: Carr has faced Sean McVay three times in his career

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Speaker 1: oh and three ats, he's failed to cover by over

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Speaker 1: eight points. Of the sixty eight head coaches that Car

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Speaker 1: has faced, he's not zher to four or worse against

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Speaker 1: any of them. Cars only averaging seventeen points per game

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Speaker 1: against Sean McVay. It's unbelievable. On top of the fact

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Speaker 1: that Sean McVay is one of the best coaches on

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Speaker 1: short rest. Now, it's not a short rest game in

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Speaker 1: terms of this one, but McVay has had a night

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Speaker 1: game and then played on the road fifteen and six

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Speaker 1: straight up. In those games fifteen and six, McVeigh and

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Speaker 1: Stafford together, they're twenty seven and nine straight up when

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Speaker 1: the listen his favorites, and just six and fifteen straight

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Speaker 1: up when they listen as dogs. Look at rams are

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Speaker 1: on the road. I hate laying points on the road.

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Speaker 1: The Rams are four and seven ats on the year.

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Speaker 1: They're two and three on the road this year three

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Speaker 1: and three New Orleans. New Orleans goes winning the bye

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Speaker 1: with two straight wins at home. This is a arrested team.

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Speaker 1: They played home game, home game, bye week. Now a

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Speaker 1: home game, they're arrested. I get why everybody likes New Orleans,

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Speaker 1: but again, this is a Rams team. Their backshore against

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Speaker 1: the wall. And I just think Matthew Stafford when he

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Speaker 1: has Pokinakula and he has the offense that he has

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Speaker 1: right now, if they hang on to the football and

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Speaker 1: they catch the football, I think they should be able

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Speaker 1: to move the ball and score here on New Orleans.

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Speaker 1: Their defense is giving up nearly twenty four points per game.

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Speaker 1: Their offense is scoring about twenty four points per game.

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Speaker 1: As well that the Rams defense has been giving up

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Speaker 1: twenty five points per game, which is not great. Five

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Speaker 1: point eight yards per rush, which is twenty eighth per play,

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Speaker 1: rather four point six yards per rush is twenty first.

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Speaker 1: Eight point two yards per pass play is thirty first

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. This defense needs to play better. This

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Speaker 1: game is probably a shootout. This game is probably going

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Speaker 1: over with all those stats, gimme Sean McVay and the

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Speaker 1: Rams against Derek Carr. This is more of a fade

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Speaker 1: on car than anything else. Rams minus two and a

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Speaker 1: half for one point one units. And the teaser of

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Speaker 1: the week, we are going to go and take a

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Speaker 1: look at a couple of dogs. The Falcons are one

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Speaker 1: point dogs at home Falcons plus one. Chargers lost to

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Speaker 1: the Ravens last week. Hardballs teams are fourteen to eight

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Speaker 1: straight up after a loss. Okay, they've been they bounce back,

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Speaker 1: There's no debating it. Chargers are on a short week

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Speaker 1: because they played them Monday night football. Harball in La

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Speaker 1: have played on our short rest already once this season,

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Speaker 1: twenty six eight home winn and cover against the Saints.

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Speaker 1: As an NFL head coach, Harball is seven and four

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Speaker 1: straight up, but foot four and six and enter the

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Speaker 1: year just three and six on this spot as an

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Speaker 1: NFL head coach, Herbert wise justin Herbert rather four and

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Speaker 1: six straight up three and six in the spot that

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Speaker 1: he's in right now. But I think Kirk Cousins can

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Speaker 1: do some work here. Falcons are off a bye in

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Speaker 1: his career. Kirk Cousins is fourteen and eighteen straight up

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Speaker 1: and twelve and twenty on extended rest. His twelve and

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Speaker 1: twenty eight TS mark is pretty bad. Two hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty eight out of two hundred and thirty quarterbacks in

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Speaker 1: the last twenty years. That's just ahead of Tony Romo

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Speaker 1: and Philip Rivers. However, in the one PM window, sixty one,

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Speaker 1: thirty five and one straight up as a quarterback in

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Speaker 1: the NFL after one PM twenty two and forty straight up.

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Speaker 1: Don't need the Falcons to win the game, but I'm

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Speaker 1: teasing them up to plus seven home dog against a

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Speaker 1: Chargers offense doesn't really blow anybody out. Falcons plus seven

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Speaker 1: on the other side, Look, I think this game's gonna

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Speaker 1: be fascinating. The Bucks are on the road at the Panthers.

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Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield as a dog, He's tremendous as a favorite.

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Speaker 1: Not great. Baker Mayfield thirty one in twenty five as

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Speaker 1: an underdog in the NFL, but just seventeen twenty seven

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Speaker 1: and one against the number as a favorite in his career.

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Speaker 1: When he's facing a divisional opponent, He's nine to eight

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Speaker 1: ats as a dog, five and twelve ats as a favorite.

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Speaker 1: That's crazy. Baker is two to ten ATS in his

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Speaker 1: last twelve divisional games as a favorite, winning his last two, however,

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Speaker 1: including one this year being ATS but his first start

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Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen. Since his first start in twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 1: he's the second least profitable quarterback as a favorite against

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Speaker 1: a divisional opponent, just ahead of Russell Wilson, who is

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Speaker 1: playing as a dog. But against Cincinnati, and we're fading

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson on the road, Baker is much different. Baker

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Speaker 1: twelve and three ATS on the road since the start

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Speaker 1: of last year. He's been tremendous. So look, the number

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Speaker 1: was seven, it went to six. The Panthers have covered

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Speaker 1: their last two games. Bryce Young has been okay Bryce

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Speaker 1: Young in his first his last two starts against the Bucks,

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Speaker 1: the offense, led by Bryce Young has scored just three

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Speaker 1: points in the first half in both those games. They

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Speaker 1: need to get off to a very good start watch

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Speaker 1: for that. The Panthers are dogs. There are eleven games

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Speaker 1: away from tying the modern record for consecutive games as

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Speaker 1: an underdog with the two thousand and seven to ten Rams,

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Speaker 1: who did so in forty three straight gamesty two consecutive

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Speaker 1: games as an underdog, including being an underdog in forty

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Speaker 1: one or last forty two games. Carolina was favored in

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Speaker 1: Week fifteen against the Steelers in twenty twenty two. That

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Speaker 1: was the last time They've lost nine straight games ATS

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Speaker 1: as a favorite. Well, every other team said at least

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Speaker 1: three covers of the favorite since October one of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty one. This is a streak for the Panthers three

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Speaker 1: straight games since twenty thirteen. Teams with a win streak

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Speaker 1: storry tim with a win percentage below thirty percent on

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Speaker 1: a three plus game ATS win streak just eleven eighteen

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Speaker 1: and one ATS. So here's what I'm gonna do. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna give him twelve points, not six, but twelve. If

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Speaker 1: the better, the better is in the market, think that

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Speaker 1: the Panthers can keep the game within six points or

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Speaker 1: within a touchdown, Let's give him twelve. Let's tease it

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Speaker 1: up for one point two units Panthers at home plus twelve.

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Speaker 1: All right, so it plays for today, Rams minus two

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Speaker 1: and a half on the road against the Saints for

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Speaker 1: one point one units, Bengals minus two and a half.

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Speaker 1: For one point one units at home against the Steelers

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Speaker 1: Atlanta plus seven. Panthers plus twelve one point two units

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Speaker 1: down on a teaser here for Sunday for the first month,

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Speaker 1: first day of the month here in December. I'll do

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Speaker 1: a recap tomorrow on the entire month of November. Tell

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Speaker 1: you if I won or lost. I don't actually know.

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Speaker 1: I think I won, but I don't know because got

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Speaker 1: a factory in the last two days. We lost two

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Speaker 1: point four units the last two days. That's four point

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Speaker 1: eight units. That may put a pretty big dent in

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Speaker 1: the month. So I got to see how the month

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Speaker 1: wound up going. Not a good finish for me for November,

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Speaker 1: but maybe we wound up winning. Hopefully we wound up winning.

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Speaker 1: I think last week was a losing week, so I

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Speaker 1: got to see about all that as we came. We

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Speaker 1: were hot though, we did well in Sunday and four

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Speaker 1: and oh and we've had some decent days, so we'll

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Speaker 1: figure out what we did for the month. Tomorrow. I

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Speaker 1: will talk to you on the live stream at noon

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Speaker 1: Eastern time with myself and Pat fitz Morris for the

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Speaker 1: NFL live stream on the Bidding Pros YouTube channel. My

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Speaker 1: name is Matt Perrault. This is a Delijuce podcast. Every

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Speaker 1: single morning I was being brought to you by draftings