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Speaker 3: Happy Friday, everybody, I'm Alexe alongside Paul Sweeney. This is
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Speaker 3: hundred and thirty industries worldwide.
Speaker 4: Every day.
Speaker 3: We also take a look at the Bloomberg Big Take story.
Speaker 3: It's a deep dive into some of the pressing financial, political,
Speaker 3: and economic issues of our time. You can check it
Speaker 3: out on the terminal or also Bloomberg dot com slash
Speaker 3: Big Take. And today it's about banker bonuses. Wall Street
Speaker 3: bonuses often come in the form of restricted stock units,
Speaker 3: So how did that actually perform? It's dicey, it's unpredictable.
Speaker 3: Do you actually make money off of those things?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 3: Joining us now is one of the authors of the story.
Speaker 3: Laura Noonan, Bloomberg News finance reporter Walkers to your story, Laura.
Speaker 5: Thank you.
Speaker 6: So the story basically looked at the restricted shares over
Speaker 6: a period from the Frantic christ Sinteszan Night, and the
Speaker 6: question we wanted to ask is how does the number
Speaker 6: on the letter you get on bonus day compare to
Speaker 6: how much you actually get by the time those shares best.
Speaker 6: So we assume certain things, and what we showed was
Speaker 6: that in the case of the US banks, you usually
Speaker 6: end up making more, in the case of the European banks,
Speaker 6: you usually end up making less. And in some cases
Speaker 6: the numbers were quite severe. So there was one case
Speaker 6: we looked at where the Bank of America people who
Speaker 6: got bonuses in twenty eleven slash twenty twelve, they ended
Speaker 6: up if they had sold them as they could over
Speaker 6: a three year period, they would have got two hundred
Speaker 6: and seventy thousand dollars for every one hundred and for
Speaker 6: every one hundred thousand dollars in the letter. So that's
Speaker 6: a big upside off the end of the spectrum of
Speaker 6: the credit Switez. Bankers who got bonuses towards the end
Speaker 6: of credit spesis life would have seen the money effectively
Speaker 6: disappear when credits fee is collapsed in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 4: Are we see investment banks pay more of the bonus
Speaker 4: in stock or RSUs less cash more. Is that a trend.
Speaker 6: It's been a trend since the financial crisis, which is
Speaker 6: why we started the analysis there. So the idea was
Speaker 6: to align the risk taking of the people who are
Speaker 6: making bonuses with the longer term fate of the banks that.
Speaker 4: They work for.
Speaker 6: Within the EU, there are rules about this, so you
Speaker 6: have to get a certain percentage of your bonus in
Speaker 6: these kind of restricted instruments, and the percentage that you
Speaker 6: get is higher depending on how senior you are. So
Speaker 6: it's certainly something the banks have been doing for risk management.
Speaker 5: They're also doing it in terms of.
Speaker 6: Pretention, in terms of if you are a really strong
Speaker 6: bank and your share price they expected to appreciate, and
Speaker 6: we want people to stay working for you, it makes
Speaker 6: sense to give them things which kind of align their
Speaker 6: fate with the fate of the bank because it makes
Speaker 6: them stay, which is what banks are trying to do,
Speaker 6: especially as they face more competition for for staff from
Speaker 6: other industries like tes like some of the non listed
Speaker 6: banks and the and the private markets industry.
Speaker 3: Paul's here shaking his head like it.
Speaker 4: I'm just going to keep my mouth shed here because
Speaker 4: I think about the Europeans in their pay structure, and
Speaker 4: you don't like that.
Speaker 2: Ball not a fan.
Speaker 4: That's why there's no global investment bank coming out of Europe.
Speaker 4: That's why there's no technology coming out of I mean.
Speaker 3: It's a fair point, like okay, I mean is a
Speaker 3: recovering former m and a media banker. So this is
Speaker 3: near and dear.
Speaker 6: There are a lot of issues in European investment banks
Speaker 6: and we will be telling you more about that. Those
Speaker 6: in different There are some unique structural issues around bank pay.
Speaker 6: Those do limit their capacity to attract some people. It's
Speaker 6: going to be really interesting in the UK market now
Speaker 6: because the UK has just ruled off some of those
Speaker 6: crisis some of those rules introduced in the EU. The
Speaker 6: EUP obviously is outside the EU now they are liberating
Speaker 6: things here. It's going to be a really interesting market
Speaker 6: to see how people respond in terms of do people
Speaker 6: want to work for a Joyty Bank MP Paraba within
Speaker 6: the London operators now or would they be even more
Speaker 6: likely to go to a Gunman Sachs at JP Morgan
Speaker 6: where you can now get really big bonuses.
Speaker 3: Can I just ask about the whole credit Sueeze debacle there,
Speaker 3: like what happened to all of those bonuses and payouts, etc.
Speaker 3: When you take a look at Deutsche Bank and Credit Sweeze.
Speaker 6: So Deutsche Bank has just had a very troubled share
Speaker 6: price situation. I mean, if you look at the share
Speaker 6: of Deutsche since Cintomatic crisis, it has pretty much it
Speaker 6: had a very very sharp decline over that period. So
Speaker 6: you know, I knew people who had Deutsche bonuses and
Speaker 6: they were like, oh, this will be the best trade
Speaker 6: I've ever made, because you get a lot of shares
Speaker 6: when your share price is low to get you to
Speaker 6: that dollar number. And they expected the share price to recover.
Speaker 6: The share price did not recover. It fell further and
Speaker 6: further and further. So they just had a very tough
Speaker 6: time share price wise. Creditsweez was interesting because if you
Speaker 6: look back over the analysis, there were some years when
Speaker 6: actually Credit sweez stock did really well, and that was
Speaker 6: because in the immediate after math of the crisis kind
Speaker 6: of ten eleven twelve is actually very strong. Where came
Speaker 6: crashing down to earth was in the more recent past
Speaker 6: when those shares effectively got zeroed by the collapsash takeover
Speaker 6: from Yes, there's a lot of nuance there. What I
Speaker 6: should also say is, for this analysis, we looked at
Speaker 6: twelve banks, the twelve banks who most commonly give bonuses. However,
Speaker 6: we have a tool for the terminal users. You can
Speaker 6: go on that you can click on it. You can
Speaker 6: enter any listed company in the world. You can enter
Speaker 6: any kind of vesting structure. You might have any dates,
Speaker 6: and you can see how your life would have been
Speaker 6: different if you got your bonus at a different bank,
Speaker 6: or if you made different career choices when you were
Speaker 6: like twenty five, or you know how your colleagues down
Speaker 6: the road have done. So there is a lot of
Speaker 6: fun that you can have. If you're into playing with
Speaker 6: Excel sheets, you're.
Speaker 2: In for a fun weekend.
Speaker 4: And I guess, I mean, you have some great stuff
Speaker 4: in here about how the best year for bank bonuses
Speaker 4: was twenty twenty twelve because I guess, you know, depressed
Speaker 4: values and after.
Speaker 6: That prices were not good. Yeah, so it's something some
Speaker 6: parts of better, kind of counter intuitive. But thinking about
Speaker 6: depressed values is they and this kind of goes without saying,
Speaker 6: but they have to recover. So I've seen people make
Speaker 6: some pretty bad decisions thinking that that, thinking that things
Speaker 6: will always rebound to some kind of normal. The one
Speaker 6: thing we've learned in European bank since the financial crisis
Speaker 6: is like me and reversion hasn't really been a thing
Speaker 6: in the way people think it was going to be.
Speaker 6: Some business models turned out to be, you know, structurally flowed,
Speaker 6: structurally fatally flowed in the case of credit sweet So
Speaker 6: you can't always assume that it's going to bounce back,
Speaker 6: because I mean, if you talk to the credit feece Banger,
Speaker 6: they talk to the Liman bankers who live a different era.
Speaker 6: But they also and then I know a few people
Speaker 6: who work for both Lehman and Credits Feet and you
Speaker 6: know the Times Violin. They're silk white rich guys. However,
Speaker 6: they will be much in picture guys in other places.
Speaker 3: All Right, Laura, thanks a lot. We're gonna leave it there.
Speaker 3: Thank you very much. Lauren and a Bloomberg News finance
Speaker 3: reporter joining us on Banker Bonuses.
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Speaker 2: thirty one.
Speaker 3: Stock on the move to the upside is Baker Hughes.
Speaker 3: It is the best performing stock in the energy sector
Speaker 3: within the SMP. Baker Hughes is an oil services company.
Speaker 3: It has two main lines. One is literally oil services,
Speaker 3: so if you're an oil driller, you call Baker to
Speaker 3: help you drill the oil. The other is industrial and
Speaker 3: energy technology that's much more related to sort of the
Speaker 3: future of what the business will be. Encapsulates LNG export facilities,
Speaker 3: which they are a huge provider of. And this stock
Speaker 3: has car rushed its competition. You look at a comp
Speaker 3: chart Baker Hughes versus A, Halliburton and SLB. They've crushed
Speaker 3: it over the last year. They reported earnings last night
Speaker 3: the beat very high estimates and yet the stock is
Speaker 3: still up by about six percent. Were pleased to have
Speaker 3: the CEO, President and Chairman, Lorenzo Seminelli joining us. Now, Lorenzo,
Speaker 3: good to chat with you. I gave you a nice
Speaker 3: set up there. What do you think that you have
Speaker 3: if Pears don't.
Speaker 5: Say that again, Alex, what do.
Speaker 3: You have that your other peers don't in your best estimation?
Speaker 7: Well, Alex, firstval it's great to be with you and
Speaker 7: very pleased with the results of twenty twenty four.
Speaker 5: And I think it.
Speaker 7: Really talks to the portfolio and the capabilities of baking US.
Speaker 7: And as you mentioned, we have these two segments, one
Speaker 7: being oil field services and equipment and then the other
Speaker 7: being industrial and energy technology, and that capability of really
Speaker 7: being focused on where there's less cyclicality, less volatility. As
Speaker 7: you look at oil field services and equipment, we're much
Speaker 7: more on the production side, weighted and looking at the
Speaker 7: mature asset solutions. And when you look at the industrial
Speaker 7: energy technology, really on the liquefaction side, the gas infrastructure
Speaker 7: and also new energy and again we exceeded the guidance
Speaker 7: for new energy orders take in twenty twenty four, looking
Speaker 7: for another robust twenty twenty five. And it really comes
Speaker 7: down to the differentiation in the portfolio. And we're really
Speaker 7: not just an all field services company. We're an industrial
Speaker 7: energy technology company, and you know, we've created a portfolio
Speaker 7: that's unique within the space.
Speaker 4: All Right, Lorenzos, I've been telling Alex, who is the
Speaker 4: true expert here in Bloomberg for energy. I have watched
Speaker 4: season one of land Man, so I now consider myself
Speaker 4: an oil and gas expert. Just putting that in front
Speaker 4: of you there. Love to get your thoughts. Lorenzo on
Speaker 4: the implications of this new administration coming up. How much
Speaker 4: of a change in policy do you and your peers
Speaker 4: expect out of a Trump administration.
Speaker 7: You know, we've seen administrations in the past and changes,
Speaker 7: and obviously we had Trump administration previously as well. As
Speaker 7: we look at the outlook again, we think that an
Speaker 7: number of our customers and EMPs are going to continue
Speaker 7: to be disciplined, and we're seeing activity levels and production
Speaker 7: at least in the US slightly increasing. As we look
Speaker 7: at international again we see flatish year over year. But
Speaker 7: again I think as we look at the macro side,
Speaker 7: it's over the course of the next few years and
Speaker 7: the next decade and increasing demand for energy, and that
Speaker 7: means it's an all of the above strategy. It's going
Speaker 7: to be oil gas, it's going to be more renewables,
Speaker 7: and we see a good outlook on the macro side
Speaker 7: for Baker Hughes.
Speaker 3: In that environment, he does talk about Landman like all
Speaker 3: the time. So to break that down a little bit,
Speaker 3: I was talking to Mike Worth's CEO of Chevron earlier,
Speaker 3: and basically his theme in the Permian is to produce more.
Speaker 4: But with less, so less capex.
Speaker 3: It feels like the read through of that for the
Speaker 3: oil services business wouldn't be great for you guys. Walk
Speaker 3: me through what you're seeing from the big oil players.
Speaker 7: Again, as I mentioned the big old players, they're going
Speaker 7: to take the opportunity of benefiting from the consolidation and
Speaker 7: the acreage that they're bringing on.
Speaker 5: And what Mike.
Speaker 7: Is mentioning is really the aspect of doing more with
Speaker 7: what you have. And that's why Baker Hughes is well
Speaker 7: suited because we're more.
Speaker 5: On the production side. And again, as you.
Speaker 7: Look at our portfolio, greater than fifty percent is associated
Speaker 7: with the production. That's the electrical submassible pumps, it's the chemicals,
Speaker 7: it's the ability to really take more.
Speaker 5: Out of the mature assets.
Speaker 7: And that's been a big focus of Baker Hughes over
Speaker 7: the course of the last few years. And so as
Speaker 7: the intensity continues to increase on doing more with less,
Speaker 7: it actually serves the aspect of our production side and
Speaker 7: focus that we have on the mature assets.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm glad you brought that up, because that's kind
Speaker 3: of what my word was saying too, that like the
Speaker 3: technology just gets so much better that you can actually
Speaker 3: continue to get more oil, lower the cycle costs, and
Speaker 3: lower the cycle time. Switching to your IET business, so
Speaker 3: industrials and energy, a technology business, that's where you have
Speaker 3: sort of your LNG export facilities, it is, that's where
Speaker 3: the growth is going to come from. Your numbers for
Speaker 3: the first quarter and for all of this year are
Speaker 3: just trouncing estimates. Who is your big customer for this.
Speaker 7: Well, we've got the large LNG players obviously within North America,
Speaker 7: and we're looking forward to a number of FIDS taking
Speaker 7: place in twenty twenty five. Overall globally for LNG again,
Speaker 7: we see one hundred mtpa of new projects between twenty
Speaker 7: four and twenty.
Speaker 5: Six over the course of this year.
Speaker 7: You know, there's still about eighty mtpa to go internationally
Speaker 7: as well as also in the US.
Speaker 5: But it's not just the LNG.
Speaker 7: It's you know, when you look at gas infrastructure and
Speaker 7: the associated infrastructure around pipelines being required compression to be
Speaker 7: able to move the molecule, the LNG players Venture Global
Speaker 7: which we announced yesterday as well. You've got Shineer, but
Speaker 7: you've got the majors when you think of Katar Gas
Speaker 7: as well as Exon Mobile with the projects.
Speaker 5: That they have.
Speaker 7: So we play across the portfolio with these key customers.
Speaker 5: But it's not just LNG.
Speaker 7: You know, seventy percent of the addressable market opportunity for
Speaker 7: us in IT over the course of the next few
Speaker 7: years is outside of LNG, and that's one hundred and
Speaker 7: forty billion dollar opportunity.
Speaker 3: Where is it outside of LNG And do you anticipate
Speaker 3: any acquisitions to even beat that up even more?
Speaker 7: You know, we're benefiting from the fact that our equipment
Speaker 7: can be utilized in multiple end applications. So when you
Speaker 7: go onshore offshore production, when you look at FPSOs and
Speaker 7: we consistent theme of seven to nine FPSOs on an
Speaker 7: annual basis. When you look at pipeline infrastructure, you look
Speaker 7: at downstream.
Speaker 5: You need pumps, you need valves, you.
Speaker 7: Need reciprocating compressors, you need turbines, and increasingly behind the
Speaker 7: meta solutions as well, distributed power generation and we've got
Speaker 7: a line of industrial gas turbans obviously below one hundred
Speaker 7: and fifty megawat and when you think of the data
Speaker 7: center growth that's going to be taking place, it's a
Speaker 7: large opportunity for us as we go forward.
Speaker 3: Does that mean that, Lorenzo, you're going to be able
Speaker 3: to play in the AI data center rush?
Speaker 7: We already are playing in the aspect of providing behind
Speaker 7: the meta solutions and also distributed power generation with our
Speaker 7: Nova LT line and as we're working with a number
Speaker 7: of hyperscalers and AI is definitely a theme that we
Speaker 7: see growing and the need for data centers growing, and
Speaker 7: they're going to need short solutions forgetting.
Speaker 3: The power Before I let you go, because you know
Speaker 3: I'm going to ask it. You got those two huge
Speaker 3: business lines. Any any theories or feelings about a spin off.
Speaker 7: There is a tremendous amount of synergies between the two.
Speaker 7: And what's great about Baker Hughes is that we can
Speaker 7: navigate with less cyclicality, less volatility because it doesn't matter
Speaker 7: on the pace of the transition. We actually match with
Speaker 7: the capabilities of oil field services and equipment and the
Speaker 7: industrial energy technology, and we actually link the value chain together.
Speaker 7: And as you think of subsurface knowledge with then being
Speaker 7: able to move the molecule and do something with the
Speaker 7: molecule from a compression standpoint, liquefaction or moving it elsewhere.
Speaker 7: The two segments were hand in hand together, so we
Speaker 7: liked the portfolio of the way that is.
Speaker 3: I knew you were going to say that one, Lorenzo.
Speaker 4: It's great to chat with you.
Speaker 3: I love catching up with you. Lorenzo Saminelli, President, chairman
Speaker 3: and CEO of Baker Hughes. That' stock up over a
Speaker 3: six percent And today.
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Speaker 4: News came out today that surprised me, talking about the
Speaker 4: US Justice Department blocking HPE's acquisition of Juniper Networks. What
Speaker 4: happened to the animal spirits of a Republican white House,
Speaker 4: Republican Congress pulling back on regulation. This one kind of
Speaker 4: threw me for a curve. So we went to the
Speaker 4: expert u Jinhoe Senior technolog channels from Bloomberg Intelligence. Wooje
Speaker 4: was this expected, what's going on here.
Speaker 8: Hey, Paul, it wasn't expected. I think there were some
Speaker 8: rumblings going on earlier in the week that the DJ
Speaker 8: made blocked the deal for anti competitive reasons, and then
Speaker 8: when the deal was close, close to the finish line,
Speaker 8: Woomer was next week a DJ decided to step in.
Speaker 8: What's the problem, Well, it's all about Wi Fi and
Speaker 8: it's clear that HPE can't live without its Wi Fi either.
Speaker 8: You know, the combination of HPE and Juniper would create
Speaker 8: twenty percent Wi Fi market share in the United States
Speaker 8: in the North America, and if you combine that with Cisco,
Speaker 8: it would have over seventy percent. So the DOJ is
Speaker 8: essentially saying that it would create an anti competitive environment
Speaker 8: in the wireless landspace.
Speaker 4: Both stocks are kind of flat to a little bit
Speaker 4: up here today. So what's the market telling us here, Well.
Speaker 8: The market is telling us for a Juniper standpoint, there
Speaker 8: might be a we're getting closer to evaluation floor if
Speaker 8: HPE needs to walk away. What we did right this
Speaker 8: morning was that we think that there is a nine
Speaker 8: to ten billion dollar valuation on a standalone Juniper. That
Speaker 8: gets us to about a twenty eight to thirty two
Speaker 8: dollars share price. It slight discount where it's trading right now.
Speaker 8: Now from an HPE standpoint, you know, it's something a
Speaker 8: different signal. One of the reasons why they wanted to
Speaker 8: acquire Juniper as a whole is for a margin perspective.
Speaker 8: So the stock is down about ten percent and some
Speaker 8: of the margin decretion related Juniper might be falling off.
Speaker 4: What could they do to save this deal?
Speaker 3: Is there anything that they could offer?
Speaker 8: Yeah, so look at the end of the day, there's
Speaker 8: one particular product that Juniper has called missed and that
Speaker 8: was automated the Wi Fi functionality as well as delivered
Speaker 8: some AI functionality. You know, HP doesn't want to walk
Speaker 8: away from that, but if they walk away from that
Speaker 8: portion of the deal, that could possibly preserve the deal.
Speaker 8: But you know, with Antonio trying to do to keep
Speaker 8: to go through with the lawsuit, they really want Missed
Speaker 8: and quite frankly, I think it's one of the crown
Speaker 8: jewels of the deal.
Speaker 4: So which I know you probably speak to Jenrie at
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Intelligence. She does all this anti trust stuff. How
Speaker 4: are you guys thinking about this? What are you telling
Speaker 4: your clients? Is it still going to get done? Is
Speaker 4: it not gonna get done? Are they going to walk away?
Speaker 4: What do you think is gonna happen?
Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, I've been going back and forth with
Speaker 8: with Jen, and you know what Jen is telling us
Speaker 8: as well as Bloomberg Bloomberg clients is that the DJ
Speaker 8: actually may have a strong case. Quite quite frankly, I
Speaker 8: think it's kind of a bunk from from a DJ standpoint.
Speaker 8: You know, Hpe is getting penalized for Cisco having fifty
Speaker 8: percent market share, right and one of the arguments that
Speaker 8: the DJ is making is that there might be an
Speaker 8: increase in price. But you know, the historical trend has
Speaker 8: been Hpe actually has been a price leader in terms
Speaker 8: of having lower price for their wireless land products versus
Speaker 8: where Cisco is a price you know, is a price
Speaker 8: leader where they have the highest price. So, you know,
Speaker 8: I don't know where it'll be. But if uh, Jens
Speaker 8: generally says that DJ has a case, HPE may need
Speaker 8: to find alternatives.
Speaker 3: So let's pretend that deodee h does have a case.
Speaker 3: What's a plan B or I guess what does Juniper
Speaker 3: and HPE look without a deal?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 8: So, uh, the way I look at it right now
Speaker 8: is that the there actually is still a lot of synergies.
Speaker 8: You know, Juniper has a data center networking UH data
Speaker 8: center uh A as well as cloud routing.
Speaker 5: UH.
Speaker 8: These are two areas that HPE does not have, and
Speaker 8: it actually would fit well UH with HPE's portfolio. From
Speaker 8: a valuation standpoint, you know, we think that UH the
Speaker 8: standalone missed piece would be about two point seven to
Speaker 8: three point five billion dollars if you back that out
Speaker 8: of the original UH fourteen billion dollar price, we're talking
Speaker 8: about a ten two eleven billion dollar deal. UH, Juniper
Speaker 8: valuation X missed. So you know it it it'll still
Speaker 8: work out, and and there are still UH areas of synergies,
Speaker 8: but you are missing out about a billion plus in
Speaker 8: revenue if you carve out missed.
Speaker 4: Which about thirty seconds left. What's your favorite name here
Speaker 4: in your space these days?
Speaker 8: Ironically, it's HPA Okay, and the quick AI. It's the
Speaker 8: AI story. It's the I think they're going to start
Speaker 8: gaining some AI sent them in the quarter.
Speaker 4: All right, great stuff with Jinho Senior Technology. Channleal for
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Intelligence joining us via the Zoom from Princeton, New Jersey.
Speaker 4: Appreciate that so again, Hpe, Juniper do oj blocking kind
Speaker 4: of surprised. I think a lot of us who were
Speaker 4: expecting these animal spirits from a regulatory standpoint to take
Speaker 4: over and be kind of the wild West out there
Speaker 4: for M and A.
Speaker 6: But MAK you not.
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