1 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:12,560 Speaker 1: Welcome back to Drilled. 2 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:17,120 Speaker 2: I'm Amy Westerveldt. We will be bringing you another season soon, 3 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,840 Speaker 2: but in the meantime, I'm back with weekly updates on 4 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 2: various aspects of climate accountability and occasionally with some book 5 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 2: recommendations and interviews related to them. Like today, I have 6 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:36,519 Speaker 2: joining me Jake Biddle. He's a journalist for Grist, and 7 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:38,840 Speaker 2: he also had a book come out just a couple 8 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 2: months ago about internal migration in the US caused by 9 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 2: climate change. It's called The Great Displacement. It's a great book. 10 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 2: All stick a link to it. In the show notes, 11 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 2: Jake talked to me about all kinds of things he 12 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 2: discovered while reporting this book, and it's pretty fascinating stuff. 13 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 2: That conversation is coming up after this quick break. 14 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 3: Hi, my name is Jake Pittle. Okay. 15 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 1: I want you to start by kind of setting the 16 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: stakes for people. 17 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 3: I feel like we hear. 18 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: Lots of numbers bandied about around climate migration. So, in 19 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:32,039 Speaker 1: terms of internal migration within the US driven by a climate, 20 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 1: what kinds of numbers are we seeing right now in 21 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: the projections? 22 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 3: Right? 23 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 4: So, the most recent numbers suggest that each year, you know, 24 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 4: upwards of a million and closer in the past few 25 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 4: years to two or three million people are displaced from 26 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 4: their homes for any amount of time by a climate disaster, right, 27 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 4: and so the vast majority of those people end up 28 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 4: pretty quickly moving back to their homes, the original homes, 29 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 4: once they can repair the damage, or once the immediate 30 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 4: disaster is over. But a substantial number do not. And 31 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 4: we don't really know what that number is, but it's 32 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 4: probably safe to say that tens of thousands of people 33 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 4: every year end up having to spend you know, at 34 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 4: least a year out of their home, or they end 35 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 4: up moving to a different home eventually. So the cumulative 36 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 4: toll of this displacement over the next few decades is 37 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 4: going to get pretty large. 38 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 3: You know. 39 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 4: You could imagine that multiple millions of people over the 40 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 4: next few decades, certainly by the middle of the century, 41 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 4: will have made a permanent relocation, you know, as a 42 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 4: result of either pressure from a climate disaster or what's 43 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:35,679 Speaker 4: even harder to gauge, you know, they make a voluntary 44 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 4: movement away from a vulnerable area, you know, to avoid 45 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 4: a future disaster. 46 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:45,239 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, honestly, that played into my decision to leave. Yeah, 47 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,399 Speaker 1: I'm sure, and I know a few other people who 48 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 1: also because we had it wasn't the snow. It was 49 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:56,359 Speaker 1: like we had multiple summers in a row of being 50 00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 1: trapped inside by smoke from yeahs, like my kids' school 51 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: started to have more smoke days than snow days. Wow, 52 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 1: which was really just brutal. 53 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 3: Ye was it the Caldor fire that was all around 54 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 3: that all around for a few weeks, right, Yeah. 55 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, we actually evacuated twice because of that fire. Like 56 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:21,399 Speaker 1: the first time was just the smoke got so bad 57 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 1: that like it was, you know, like my kids were 58 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: complaining about their eyes hurting inside the house even with 59 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: all the windows closed. I mean, you know, most of 60 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: Tahoe's housing stock was like built in the nineteen seventies 61 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 1: and never touched since, so it's not like we've had 62 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: really great, you know, seals on our windows. So I 63 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 1: kind of was like, oh, I guess we could just 64 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:46,119 Speaker 1: leave for a few days to get a break from 65 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: the smoke. That would probably be good. And since you 66 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: know we're able to do that, we should did. And 67 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 1: then the second was actually like they were worried it 68 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 1: was going to kind of like tear up the west 69 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: shore of Lake. So they were everyone in West and 70 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: North Tahoe to evacuate, so it wasn't like running from 71 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: a fire. 72 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 3: I don't know. 73 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 1: I feel like people have this idea that it's like 74 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 1: that it's always like disaster or not disaster emergency emergency, 75 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: and like a lot of people end up, you know, 76 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: leaving for either a short period of time or forever 77 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 1: just because of like a building of it. 78 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 2: You know. 79 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, definitely. 80 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: So anyway, I want to have you talk about some 81 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 1: of the things that you heard from folks about how 82 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: they make the decision to stay or leave, both temporarily 83 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 1: and more permanently. 84 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, I think this is This was a really 85 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 4: interesting and kind of surprising part of the reporting process 86 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 4: for the book is that I guess I had kind 87 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,160 Speaker 4: of assumed when I started that there would be a 88 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 4: kind of you know, psychological shift that took place in 89 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:55,719 Speaker 4: most people, where as the risks got larger and more frequent, 90 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 4: they would, you know, decide that they were more afraid 91 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 4: of then they were hesitant to leave and find a 92 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 4: new home. That was certainly true for a lot of people, 93 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 4: but I think there was this whole other set of 94 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 4: push and pull factors which were primarily financial that I 95 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 4: don't think I considered at the start. Right, So, the 96 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 4: availability and extent to which someone had bought homeowners insurance 97 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 4: or flood insurance and flood print areas was like a 98 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:25,320 Speaker 4: prime driver of whether they had the resources to rebuild 99 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 4: the same kind of home that they lived in before. 100 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 4: And then the ambient sort of level of housing shortage 101 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:34,840 Speaker 4: in a place was really really important for renters. Right So, 102 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 4: in places like northern California, if there's a wildfire that 103 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 4: destroys hundreds or thousands of housing units, the rents go 104 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:45,359 Speaker 4: up precipitously overnight, and people, even if their homes didn't 105 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 4: actually get destroyed in the fire, they can't find a 106 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 4: place to rent that's anywhere near affordable and they have 107 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 4: to leave. 108 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 3: So there's these hool This is. 109 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 1: Exactly what happened to me, Like my landlord decided to 110 00:05:56,560 --> 00:06:01,039 Speaker 1: sell the house that we were renting or maybe move 111 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:02,359 Speaker 1: a family member, and I don't. 112 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 3: Know, you wanted to you know, yeah, yeah, And it. 113 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 1: Was right after the caled Or. 114 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 3: Fire, right right, right, Yeah, it. 115 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 1: Was like, oh my god, there's nothing that we can 116 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: find that's less than four thousand dollars a month. 117 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:17,920 Speaker 4: It's yeah, and I think, like, like the most people 118 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 4: that I spoke to who ended up having to move 119 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 4: or choosing to move, it seems to exist on a 120 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 4: spectrum between having to move and choosing to move. But 121 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 4: I guess I was sort of surprised about how, you know, 122 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 4: their attitudes about leaving kind of existed in this this 123 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 4: limbo where some of them didn't really think that they 124 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 4: were leaving for good, some of them didn't want to leave, 125 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 4: but they were going to leave. Some of them still 126 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 4: thought of themselves as people who would never leave, even 127 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 4: as they had to kind of come to grips with 128 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 4: the fact that maybe they weren't coming back. I think 129 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 4: I had sort of imagined there would be a binary 130 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 4: between people who chose to stay and people who chose 131 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:55,839 Speaker 4: to leave, and there was really not. The financial pressure 132 00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 4: of the post disaster world, you know, really was the 133 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 4: main factor I think that made it impossible for people 134 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 4: to stay even when they thought that they would not leave. 135 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: That's so interesting. I mean, it makes total sense when 136 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:09,480 Speaker 1: you say it, But yeah, I think a lot of 137 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: times you hear about it in this kind of stay 138 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: or go binary. Okay, I want to talk about climate 139 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 1: gentrification and this way that black and brown people in 140 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 1: particular are getting pushed into more disaster prone zones. I 141 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: think the first time I heard the term climate gentrification 142 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: was in Miami, and I just had this image in 143 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 1: my head of people being literally pushed into the sea. 144 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'm curious to hear about what you saw 145 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 1: and your reporting on that. 146 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really really interesting. 147 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 4: I think that that case study in Miami has been 148 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 4: really really influential for the way that a lot of 149 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 4: people see the problem. And it's certainly true that many 150 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 4: of the highest elevated areas in Miami have historically been 151 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 4: areas of quite low property values home to black and 152 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 4: brown communities, and now there's like a substantial placement pressure. 153 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 3: Going on in those communities. 154 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 4: Now, whether the developers are actively trying to make investments 155 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 4: on a high ground, I mean, they'll tell you that 156 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 4: they're not, and they just think it's a good place 157 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 4: to gentrify, which in many respects it actually is. It's 158 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 4: like right next to the other gentrified neighborhoods. But I mean, 159 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 4: it's hard to imagine that they don't have the ability 160 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 4: to look at a map, you know, and see what's 161 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 4: going to happen. But I think that there's this whole 162 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 4: other set of pressures that I think you could call 163 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 4: gentrification pressures, right like what I was talking about before 164 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 4: in northern California and also in other parts of Florida, 165 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 4: where as financial interests like insurance companies and mortgage lenders 166 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:44,839 Speaker 4: try to reduce their exposure, you know, they reduced the 167 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:49,080 Speaker 4: total available supply of credit and insurance coverage, and that 168 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 4: increases a lot of pressure, financial pressure on lower middle 169 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 4: class and middle class homeowners in particular. Renters have a 170 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 4: really hard time of it all the time. But I 171 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:02,319 Speaker 4: think that there's a kind of specific gentrification pressure that's happening, 172 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:05,440 Speaker 4: especially in Florida with windstorm and flood insurance, where a 173 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 4: lot of homeowners can no longer keep up with the 174 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 4: financial burden of paying insurance and keeping that coverage and 175 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 4: sort of like pushing people out of the threshold of 176 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:20,440 Speaker 4: homeownership already, especially in parts of Miami where winstorm insurance 177 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:22,959 Speaker 4: has gotten extremely expensive. I think this is like a 178 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 4: kind of invisible climate gentrification pressure that we don't always 179 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:29,320 Speaker 4: hear about because it's not quite so graphic and visible, 180 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 4: but the risks are getting transferred onto homeowners and residents 181 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:37,959 Speaker 4: of these places, and that's like really really hard for 182 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 4: a lot of people to bear, and it pushes people 183 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:41,359 Speaker 4: out of those areas. 184 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I know that in California, as insurers kind of 185 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: stopped offering really any fire insurance at all or really 186 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 1: raise premiums to the point that people couldn't afford them, 187 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 1: the state kind of stepped in, which is obviously not 188 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: necessarily sustainable in the long term. Are you seeing that 189 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: in other states as well, like states kind of getting 190 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 1: in on the insurance game as a way to mitigate 191 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: that impact. 192 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah. 193 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 4: In Florida and Louisiana, which have both seem sort of 194 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:15,679 Speaker 4: downward spirals in their homeowners' insurance markets thanks to the hurricanes, 195 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 4: the state has gotten involved sort of bailed out insurance 196 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:22,440 Speaker 4: that are collapsing, and then in Florida they pumped like 197 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 4: a bunch of money into what's called reinsurance to help 198 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 4: the insurers themselves get insurance. And then they also produced 199 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:33,679 Speaker 4: all these different legislative reforms to try to stabilize the system. 200 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 4: And in California, I think in particular, there's a lot 201 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 4: of interest in regulating the way that insurers can choose 202 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 4: to set prices not so much in Florida and Louisiana, 203 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:47,080 Speaker 4: probably for obvious reasons. But in California, the state has said, 204 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 4: you know, if a homeowner takes steps to make her 205 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 4: home more resilient to wildfire, then the insurer has to 206 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 4: offer them a discount rate. You know, you have to 207 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 4: take that into account when you set the price of premiams. 208 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 3: I think that's like it's the probably the. 209 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 4: Best policy that the state really has the legal authority 210 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 4: to do, I think, or one of the best, and 211 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,559 Speaker 4: it should incentivize homeowners to do some of this, and 212 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:14,080 Speaker 4: hopefully the burdens are not so much that people just 213 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,679 Speaker 4: can't afford to pay the money up front, but it 214 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 4: would lead to some big discounts. Yeah, and I think 215 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 4: that that you're going to have to see probably more 216 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 4: that kind of policy in order to prevent like a 217 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 4: serious collapse in one of these markets, which we haven't 218 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:28,680 Speaker 4: quite seen yet. 219 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, Okay. 220 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: I want to talk about a term that I find 221 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 1: to be terrifying because it sounds so and bureaucratic, but 222 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,959 Speaker 1: it is like kind of a major deal and that 223 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 1: is managed to retreat. 224 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, Like every time I. 225 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: Hear that term, I think as people like slowly running 226 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 1: and screaming exactly. 227 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 3: Yeah. 228 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 4: It is like a very sanitized term for something that's 229 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,320 Speaker 4: often you know, very very painful. 230 00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:57,319 Speaker 3: Yeah. 231 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'm curious just well, I want have you 232 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: defined this term for people? And then I want to 233 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: hear more about what you saw around that, you know, 234 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 1: kind of across the country where people are at with 235 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: this idea, you know, where are their local governments that 236 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: are actually trying to plan how you know, how it 237 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 1: gets managed. I know, like sometimes when it gets mentioned 238 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,560 Speaker 1: in any kind of official way, like you know, property 239 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 1: values plummet, and get really worried about that too. So yeah, 240 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,559 Speaker 1: I'm curious to hear what you saw in them from Yeah. 241 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, so manager treat is, as you said, the kind 242 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 4: of sanitized term for the government, a state sponsored you know, 243 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 4: relocation of people away from the most flood prone or 244 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 4: disaster prone areas, or I guess relocation to people, buildings 245 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 4: or infrastructure. Right, So any kind of you know, if 246 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 4: you're moving the wastewater treatment plant back from the ocean, 247 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 4: or if you're tearing down a neighborhood and giving people 248 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 4: money to move elsewhere, that's all under the sort of 249 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 4: unbrellt of managed retreat. I think that the main way 250 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 4: that this has happened in the United States so far 251 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 4: is through this FEMA's home buyout program, where basically FEMA 252 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 4: will give a local jurisdiction, a city or county, money 253 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 4: to pay everyone in a certain area to leave or 254 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 4: offer them the opportunity to leave. 255 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,160 Speaker 3: Really, it's not a mandatory program. 256 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:23,200 Speaker 4: FEMA gives you money, you leave your house, you find 257 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 4: another house, and then FEMA tears down your house or 258 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 4: the county really tears down your house, and then they've 259 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 4: removed a structure from the floodplain, and that you know, 260 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,080 Speaker 4: they've reduced their future risk of flooding, and they've also 261 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 4: reduced your future risk of flooding. 262 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:38,319 Speaker 3: Hopefully. 263 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 4: This is like in theory, right, it's one of the 264 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 4: most cost effective and really like the most sort of 265 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 4: forward looking tools we have to adapt to climate change. Right, 266 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 4: you can build levy you know, x feet y feed 267 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 4: z feet. There's always potential risk that another flood will 268 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 4: overtop it in the future, but if you make sure 269 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 4: that you move somebody away from the world, then you 270 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 4: know the chances are if there's no home there the 271 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 4: home camp flood, right, and so like in theory this 272 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 4: this looks pretty good as the last resort option in 273 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 4: places where there's either no money to adapt, you know, 274 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 4: to build these structures, or where for some reason we 275 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 4: feel like it's not worth it, like the dangers are 276 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 4: just too extensive. The problem, and what I found in 277 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 4: the book is that almost everywhere that this happens, it 278 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 4: turns out to be really ugly and to leave people 279 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 4: in quite a bit of pain. So I wrote about 280 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 4: like a test case of this in eastern North Carolina, 281 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 4: there was this community called Lincoln City. It was a 282 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 4: historic African American community right on the banks of this 283 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 4: river on land that was sort of considered worthless by 284 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 4: the white planters who had dominated the area in the 285 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 4: late nineteenth century. 286 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 3: And the government, after two hurricanes, came in and said, 287 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 3: we would like to give you all money to leave. 288 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 4: We're never going to build a levee around you, we're 289 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 4: never going to help you elevate your homes because they're 290 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 4: not worth enough. 291 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 3: Everyone basically took the offer. They left. 292 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 4: This community was raised in two years, and now they're 293 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 4: all scattered around and they still retained very painful memories 294 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 4: of like the government coming in ton and they had 295 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,800 Speaker 4: to leave this place that was really the only place 296 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 4: that had ever felt like home for them. This has 297 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 4: happened all over the country. Some places people are okay 298 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 4: with leaving, you know, but other places, especially black communities, 299 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 4: where there's not enough home values in the government's has 300 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 4: to justify, you know, the expense of flood protection. This 301 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 4: is often a really painful process, and it's just sort 302 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 4: of like it's one of these things where, you know, 303 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 4: a lot of adaptation experts and sort of planners see 304 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 4: it as a really really sound tool for adapting, and 305 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 4: to a certain extent, it is, but it comes with 306 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 4: all kinds of implications for racial and economic justice that 307 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 4: we really haven't begun to tease out yet. 308 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 1: Well yeah, I mean, we haven't figured out how to 309 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 1: build housing or approach development in an equitable way, period, 310 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 1: So the idea that we're going to do manage to 311 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: retreat in an equitable way seems really implausible unfortunately. But 312 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 1: I also think, like, you know, kind of leaving it 313 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: to a disaster to take care of has similar impacts. 314 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 4: Oh yeah, yeah, I mean, at least at least in 315 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 4: the case of you know, a manage retreat policy, you 316 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 4: could in theory design a policy that works better than 317 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 4: the one that they have currently does, right, Like, so 318 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 4: the buyout program, you just get a check for the 319 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 4: pre flood market value of your house, right So for 320 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 4: a lot of people, that's not a sufficient payment for 321 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 4: them to find another house they can afford in the 322 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 4: same area, you know, Like, if you've got to buy 323 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 4: out right now in Austin, Texas, which they've tried to 324 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 4: do in the test, there's no home you could could 325 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 4: afford for the amount that your previous home probably costs 326 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 4: because costs have risen so much. But you could, in theory, 327 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 4: you design a program that would include like a top 328 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 4: up for instance, or a long term relocation STIPE and 329 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 4: to help people make up that difference. But if you 330 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:03,440 Speaker 4: just wait for people's houses to get destroyed and then 331 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:05,439 Speaker 4: let them go willy nilly wherever they want, then you 332 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,639 Speaker 4: definitely know that it won't work, you know. I Mean, 333 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,679 Speaker 4: there's just no way that that will end well for 334 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,199 Speaker 4: most people. So I think like biots are like a 335 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 4: good start, and there's a way that it could be 336 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:17,160 Speaker 4: done well. It's just that it's not being done well 337 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 4: right now. But yeah, I mean, managed retreat probably preferable 338 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:23,640 Speaker 4: to unmanaged retreat if you have to retreat right. 339 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:28,360 Speaker 1: Have you seen any examples of either a managed retreat 340 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:33,720 Speaker 1: policy or other types of mitigation policies that have worked well? 341 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: I know you get into this in the book. I 342 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: want to have you like walk people through, you know, 343 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 1: some examples of things that either you've seen actually implemented 344 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 1: or you've heard people kind of talk about it sound 345 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 1: like they could be you know, effective solutions. 346 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I mean so probably the best example of 347 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 4: this working well is in New Jersey. So after a 348 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 4: Hurricane Sandy, the state started this program called Acres, which 349 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 4: is basically like a they. 350 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 3: Took the FEMA bioprogram. 351 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 4: When they expanded it, they staffed up this office that 352 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:11,959 Speaker 4: does these individual consultations with homeowners. They keep the offer 353 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 4: to the homeowner on the table for a long time 354 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 4: so the homeowner can really think about it. They I 355 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:20,520 Speaker 4: believe includes some sort of supplementary financial assistance or you know, 356 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,479 Speaker 4: connect people with resources that can help them find a 357 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 4: new home. 358 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 3: They really have approached it. 359 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 4: From a longitudinal I guess perspective, like it's not just 360 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 4: we show up, we give you the money, and we 361 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 4: look away. Is that we're sort of guiding the homeowner 362 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 4: from the process of making the decision to sell to 363 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 4: finding a new home, you know, preferably in the same 364 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,360 Speaker 4: jurisdictions that the tax base doesn't suffer and people can 365 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,440 Speaker 4: maintain their existing social and economic ties. And I think 366 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 4: the other example of something that's worked well in Norfolk, Virginia, 367 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 4: and this is not a perfect project by any means, 368 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:54,479 Speaker 4: but the Obama administration created a grant program, the National 369 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 4: Disaster Resilience Competition, and this program basically doled out a 370 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 4: billion dollars to some communities that wanted to experiment with 371 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 4: some climate adaptation projects that had never really been tried before. 372 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 4: And in Norfolk, Virginia, they took a pretty flood prone 373 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 4: African American neighborhood on the banks of this tidal river, 374 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,119 Speaker 4: and they spend about one hundred and fifty million dollars 375 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,960 Speaker 4: retrofiting basically every part of the neighborhood's infrastructure. They built 376 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 4: this big grassy berm along the water to stop storm 377 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:24,119 Speaker 4: search flooding. They fixed the entire sewer system and the 378 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 4: storm drain system. They created these new parks that sort 379 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 4: of function as like tidal estuaries to soak up water. 380 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 4: They really took a kind of holistic approach, and it's 381 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 4: not perfect by any means. Some people are a little 382 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:37,960 Speaker 4: discontented with what it's done to the way that the 383 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 4: neighborhood looks, for instance, but for most people it's created 384 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 4: a massive. 385 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:44,400 Speaker 3: Reduction in flood vulnerability. 386 00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 4: You know, this was a neighborhood where property values were 387 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 4: falling thanks to the vulnerability, and now they've probably bought 388 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 4: the neighborhood thirty to fifty years, depending on sea the liverlizer, 389 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,439 Speaker 4: or even longer. And it really does show how with 390 00:19:56,600 --> 00:20:00,320 Speaker 4: enough money and enough willingness to take apart the way 391 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:04,000 Speaker 4: that neighborhood was built, you know, and redo it from 392 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,360 Speaker 4: the bottom up, you can kind of control that these 393 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:09,680 Speaker 4: impacts that seemed really scary on the surface of it. 394 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:14,639 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's super interesting. You mentioned one thing that surprised 395 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,160 Speaker 1: you before, which was the various factors that come into 396 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 1: people deciding whether to stay or go. I wonder if 397 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 1: there is anything else that was particularly surprising to you 398 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 1: as you did the reporting for the book. 399 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 3: Yeah. 400 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,360 Speaker 4: I mean, I think that for many people this might 401 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 4: not be surprising, but I was surprised by how many 402 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 4: people moved from one dangerous home to another without necessarily 403 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 4: realizing what it was that they were doing. Especially in Houston, 404 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,159 Speaker 4: a lot of people took biots or they decided to 405 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 4: move after a big hurricane, and they ended up doing, 406 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 4: you know, really what the government would really not have 407 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 4: wanted them to do. They moved, They took the money, 408 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 4: and they moved to another flo zone because there was 409 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,919 Speaker 4: no long term monitoring what happened with these buyouts and 410 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 4: in other places people moved from. This is surprising to me, 411 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 4: but it's not really surprising when you think about it. 412 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 4: Like a lot of touch with a lot of people 413 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 4: who moved from New Orleans to Arizona, you know, after Katrina, 414 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:19,159 Speaker 4: or they moved from from Houston to northern California to 415 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 4: a very fire prone area. And it seems like people's, 416 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 4: you know, their psychology is really affected by what they've experienced. 417 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 4: People don't really assess, you know, risk from a neutral ground. 418 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 4: You know, they don't really see, okay, what is a 419 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 4: place that's free of risk. 420 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 3: They just want protection from the trauma that. 421 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 4: They've already experienced in most cases, right, And so I 422 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 4: did speak to people who left Houston after flood and 423 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 4: went to California and got an RV there and then 424 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:50,119 Speaker 4: the RV burned down in a fire. And there's just 425 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,440 Speaker 4: things stories like this that are like, I think it's 426 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 4: sort of emphasized for me that you can't really divide 427 00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,679 Speaker 4: the United States into places that are safe and places 428 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,199 Speaker 4: that are not safe, right, you know, or really the 429 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 4: world for that matter of course, there's only degrees of risk, 430 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 4: and there's there's risk, and then there's you know risk 431 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:12,679 Speaker 4: like people in Miami face or or you know, Greenville 432 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 4: or somewhere in the sierras. But everywhere faces some level 433 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 4: of vulnerability, and so I think everywhere has the risk 434 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 4: of descending into this kind of like housing instability that 435 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,880 Speaker 4: I sort of tried to document in the places where 436 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:27,400 Speaker 4: I went. 437 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, what are some of the things that US either 438 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 1: federal or state government officials could learn or maybe have learned. 439 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:43,200 Speaker 1: Are learning from the kind of cross border climate migration stuff. 440 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 1: Are there applicable lessons there for internal migration? 441 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 3: Oh, that's really interesting. 442 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 4: I had never thought of it that way, and I 443 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 4: kind of feel like, I guess at the end of 444 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 4: the book, I kind of said the opposite, which is 445 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,159 Speaker 4: where I was, like, I basically said that, you know, 446 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 4: in this country, we don't really have even the beginnings 447 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 4: of a plan to deal with international climate migration. It 448 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:12,399 Speaker 4: all gets routed through the immigration system, in the asylum system, 449 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,399 Speaker 4: which are so deeply broken and they're fucked up, and 450 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,879 Speaker 4: there's nobody who even wants to start trying to fix 451 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 4: it right. And I think that to me, the lessons 452 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:25,560 Speaker 4: of the few places where we have done internal climate 453 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:30,679 Speaker 4: migration successfully have really demonstrated that you kind of have 454 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,640 Speaker 4: to have not only you know, a really really robust 455 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,879 Speaker 4: post disaster recovery system where you're staying with people for 456 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,159 Speaker 4: a long period of time and making sure that they 457 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,119 Speaker 4: get back in their feet, you know, three, four or 458 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 4: five years after a disaster, but you also have to 459 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 4: sort of get your own house in order, so to speak. 460 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 4: It's really hard to make sure that there's no climate 461 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 4: displacement unless you make sure that there's no housing displacement. 462 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 4: And so like a program like Section eight or a 463 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 4: social housing program. I sort of say at the end 464 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,680 Speaker 4: that those are like a really necessary second or third 465 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 4: step to solving this problem, because you know, people who 466 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 4: are displaced by climate disasters end up in the same 467 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,480 Speaker 4: cycle of you know, displacement and relocation as people who 468 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 4: just get displaced from from normal so to speak, financial pressure. 469 00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 4: And so that lesson I thought was really important when 470 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 4: you think about international climate migration, which is like, if 471 00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 4: you think of all these displaced people as existing on 472 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,360 Speaker 4: a kind of continuum, the solution to both of them 473 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 4: is kind of the same, which is like the jurisdictions, 474 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,479 Speaker 4: the countries that have the most money and that have 475 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 4: the legacy responsibility for carbon emissions need to the state 476 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 4: needs to take a really really strong role in ensuring 477 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,120 Speaker 4: that there is like safe affordable housing for everybody. 478 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 3: And when I say everybody, I mean everybody. 479 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, And the border thing is getting in the way 480 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 4: of even acknowledging that, even the beginnings the twinkling of 481 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:56,120 Speaker 4: an acknowledgment of that, because this political roadblock is standing 482 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:56,880 Speaker 4: in the way of that. 483 00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:58,639 Speaker 3: So that's kind of how I was thinking about it. 484 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 3: But the way you said it is really interesting too. Yeah. 485 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,679 Speaker 1: I mean, the US is obviously not great on this, 486 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:08,879 Speaker 1: but I wonder if anywhere is good on it and 487 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 1: could potentially be you know, writing lessons. I mean, I 488 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:17,919 Speaker 1: don't know, I don't know the answer. 489 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 3: I don't know. 490 00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:24,919 Speaker 4: I mean, like, I gosh, it's really hard for me 491 00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 4: to think of an example. Well, okay, here's actually an 492 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,919 Speaker 4: example that I've always found really interesting and it was 493 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 4: going to be a big part of the book. And 494 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 4: then it wasn't because I didn't have enough space and 495 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 4: it just didn't work out. But so in the nineteen eighties, 496 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 4: the United States conducted nuclear tests on the Marshall Islands 497 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:47,200 Speaker 4: in the Pacific, and they gave people unlimited ability. They 498 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,160 Speaker 4: gave Marshally's unlimited ability to come to the United States, 499 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 4: and many people did, and they ended up in Arkansas 500 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:53,919 Speaker 4: and Oklahoma. 501 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:54,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, Oklahoma. 502 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 4: There's like pretty thriving Marshally's communities in those places. 503 00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 3: Yeah. And now that sea. 504 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:02,359 Speaker 4: Level rice has been a big started to become a 505 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 4: big factor for the Marshall another generation of Marshals has 506 00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,760 Speaker 4: started to come to those same communities and they're taking 507 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 4: advantage of the same legal authority I believe, to end 508 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:12,520 Speaker 4: up in the same places. And I think that this 509 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,720 Speaker 4: is like really telling where it's like, once you take 510 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:18,879 Speaker 4: away the restriction of the border, people have the ability 511 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 4: to not only you know, get away from the big risks, right, 512 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,680 Speaker 4: but they end up being able to I mean, it's 513 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 4: not that those communities in Arkansas and Oklahoma are free 514 00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,080 Speaker 4: from any kind of struggle, but they end up kind 515 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:33,360 Speaker 4: of being able to build something new once you remove 516 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,119 Speaker 4: that that blockage and once you don't make them go 517 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,920 Speaker 4: through the you know, terrifying rigmarole of asylum claims, et. 518 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 3: Cetera, well, and they end up able to rebuild communities 519 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:47,359 Speaker 3: exactly exactly right. And so I think that like this 520 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 3: is an example of something. 521 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 4: It's this is like point zero one percent of the 522 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,440 Speaker 4: total population of people who would need to move because 523 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,880 Speaker 4: of climate change, But I think it does show that 524 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,639 Speaker 4: there's kind of nothing to be afraid of, I guess 525 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 4: was my conclusion. There is, like I think a lot 526 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,600 Speaker 4: of times the numbers, you know, five hundred million or 527 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 4: a billion people moving get kind of bandied about as 528 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:14,199 Speaker 4: this terrifying you know, horde that's going to show up 529 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,840 Speaker 4: at the United States border or in Europe, you know, 530 00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,479 Speaker 4: trying to seek a sound. But I really don't think 531 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,679 Speaker 4: that there's anything scary about it. And I think that 532 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,280 Speaker 4: if you just seems like if you provide people with 533 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:25,959 Speaker 4: the right amount of support and you don't put these 534 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,399 Speaker 4: things in their way, you end up actually with potentially 535 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 4: eventually positive impacts both, you know, for the communities and 536 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,919 Speaker 4: for the people where they live from this kind of 537 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:41,199 Speaker 4: movement from you know, a risky area to a safer area. 538 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:45,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, kind of along those lines too. I'm curious what 539 00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:50,760 Speaker 1: you have seen in terms of the potential intersection between 540 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,640 Speaker 1: eco fascism and climate migration. 541 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,640 Speaker 3: Like I know, I was. Someone just sent me this. 542 00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:01,760 Speaker 1: Insane video last month from a group called Progressives for 543 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 1: Immigration Reform where there yes. 544 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 3: In the US, I'll send you the video. It's wild. 545 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:13,639 Speaker 1: They are basically saying, like, if you care about climate 546 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:20,480 Speaker 1: and conservation, then you should be pushing for tighter immigration 547 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:25,080 Speaker 1: controls because like all of these people coming into the 548 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,919 Speaker 1: US will increase the population, which will be bad for 549 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,200 Speaker 1: the environment and for climate action. 550 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 4: And that's really funny because it kind of implies that 551 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 4: they won't be part of the population if they aren't 552 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:39,400 Speaker 4: in the case. 553 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 1: Right, exactly, that's right, that's right. But also it's just 554 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 1: this thing that like, you know, everyone kind of knew 555 00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 1: was going to happen, and now of like people going 556 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 1: from saying climate change isn't real to now using it 557 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,320 Speaker 1: as a reason to be anti immigration. 558 00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, this is far from my strongest subject 559 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 4: area into like my colleague Gaby delve Valla has done 560 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 4: a ton of work on this. I think Brendan O'Connor 561 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 4: has as well. But I do think that like, there's 562 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 4: there's a substantial risk of this becoming a mainstream political position, 563 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 4: and I think that, like, to me, this is maybe 564 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:19,080 Speaker 4: a really maybe a really inapt comparison, But I've always 565 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 4: sort of thought of it in the same vein as 566 00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 4: like the way that a lot of progressive people will 567 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 4: become really really nimbyish when there's some kind of affordable 568 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 4: housing project that's going to be built near them, or 569 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 4: like a homeless shelter. There's this tendency right of people 570 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:36,240 Speaker 4: who have theoretically liberal political views, once there's like a 571 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:41,280 Speaker 4: change in their local environment, they become really vile and 572 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 4: really opposed to any kind of like thing that could 573 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:47,200 Speaker 4: improve other people's welfare by you know, slightly changing the 574 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,240 Speaker 4: way it looks where they live. I'm not sure that 575 00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,480 Speaker 4: that isn't what goes on in part when people are 576 00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,960 Speaker 4: you know, use conservation or climate risk as. 577 00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:01,560 Speaker 3: A weapon to kind of in a way all. 578 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 4: Kinds of like social policies or inclusivity or you know, 579 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:10,160 Speaker 4: accommodation of other people and like, I mean, it feels 580 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,360 Speaker 4: like eco fascism is not part of the mainstream political 581 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,200 Speaker 4: conversation in the US right now, but I feel like 582 00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:19,880 Speaker 4: it certainly could be, right and it's hard to imagine 583 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 4: that it wouldn't be, you know, if the sort of 584 00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,880 Speaker 4: trajectory of international climate migration continues the way that it is. 585 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 4: But right now, it's hard to imagine our immigration control 586 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 4: is getting much stricter in the United States. I mean, 587 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 4: they're already really damn strict, and we just don't really 588 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 4: think of immigration and climate change as being connected. But 589 00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:44,440 Speaker 4: I think that if we ever did, there would be 590 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:48,400 Speaker 4: a substantial downside because people could come to the precise 591 00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:52,120 Speaker 4: wrong conclusion by connecting those things. And that's something to 592 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 4: look out for, and that I kind of dread the 593 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 4: day that people do start to put those things in conversation, 594 00:30:57,560 --> 00:30:59,240 Speaker 4: because I think it's going to lead to more things 595 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,680 Speaker 4: like that that video that you that you mentioned. That's 596 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:07,080 Speaker 4: what's so scary about the way that those theoretical statistics 597 00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 4: of future migration are discussed. I think that that Alexander 598 00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:14,240 Speaker 4: Tempest has written about this as well, right, and I 599 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,280 Speaker 4: think she's arguing and I pretty much agree that they're 600 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,719 Speaker 4: not really useful numbers, Like you can't just add that 601 00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 4: number to the population of the United States and they that, well, 602 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,880 Speaker 4: this is like it's not useful. And I think a 603 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,000 Speaker 4: really serious way to know the numbers to think about, 604 00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 4: you know, the potential influx of people or the potential 605 00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 4: population growth. Like I think it can really only be 606 00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,120 Speaker 4: weaponized for for negative events, and I think that like 607 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 4: we have to start I guess that's sort of why 608 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 4: I said, like getting our own house in order, Like, 609 00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 4: I think we just have to think through the implications 610 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,600 Speaker 4: of what it would mean to take care of everyone 611 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 4: who's displaced by climate change, and then not so much 612 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:53,560 Speaker 4: try to like schedule you know, this kind of influx 613 00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 4: of people, but just think about what would what would 614 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,960 Speaker 4: a benign policy look like for any number of people, right, 615 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,280 Speaker 4: including the ones who already live here, right, Like, let's 616 00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,800 Speaker 4: just imagure we're trying to keep track of everyone and 617 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,960 Speaker 4: keep safe everyone who already lives here, and then like 618 00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,920 Speaker 4: let's try to expand that out, you know, but do 619 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,160 Speaker 4: not really do that well for current citizens, right, So 620 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 4: it's like, yeah, I think it's I think it's a 621 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 4: little it's a little like rich in a negative way 622 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,400 Speaker 4: to be like, oh, we can't handle all that, Like 623 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 4: it's not really the question is can we handle It's 624 00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 4: not really the question at all. 625 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:26,720 Speaker 3: Yeah. 626 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,160 Speaker 1: Well, and I think to your point about, you know, 627 00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:34,440 Speaker 1: shoring up housing availability and affordability and access and all 628 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:38,720 Speaker 1: those things across the board in general could also mitigate 629 00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:42,760 Speaker 1: some of the potential for anti immigration centiment because I 630 00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 1: feel like the number one thing that you often hear 631 00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 1: is like, well, I don't have access to a house, 632 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,600 Speaker 1: so why should I care right about giving this person 633 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:57,120 Speaker 1: who's not even from here an apartment or whatever, you know, Right, So, 634 00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 1: like again, sort of just taking care of people, good 635 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:03,960 Speaker 1: move across the board. 636 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,760 Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, I mean it's really true. The reasons people 637 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 4: cite for why we couldn't and absorb a lot of 638 00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 4: people in the United States are the same. Like, those 639 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:17,360 Speaker 4: shortcomings are shortcomings that we actually should solve, but they're 640 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:21,000 Speaker 4: not really a reason to do not let people in, 641 00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,800 Speaker 4: especially when you consider what it is that they're trying 642 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:24,600 Speaker 4: to leave behind. 643 00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:32,360 Speaker 1: Drilled is an original critical frequency production. Our producer is 644 00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,720 Speaker 1: Sarah Entry. Sound design, mixing and mastering are by Peter Duff, 645 00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,800 Speaker 1: who also wrote our original score. Our first amendment attorney 646 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:44,360 Speaker 1: is James Wheaton at the First Amendment Project, and the 647 00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:48,840 Speaker 1: show is reported written and hosted by me Amy Westervelt.