1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul Swinge. You, 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wus. Each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor, find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. There's a question of some of 8 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 1: the permanent market shifts that will occur following this pandemic. 9 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 1: A lot of people have been trying to understand how 10 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 1: the world as we know it will change. Joe No Sarah, 11 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 1: longtime columnists at The New York Times, a columnist now 12 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Opinion who I deeply respect and always appreciate, 13 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 1: wrote a fantastic column a highly recommended pandemic could end 14 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 1: shareholders supremacy for good, talking about how a shift in 15 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 1: the priorities of executives could change the way companies are 16 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: viewed in the world to come. Jonah Sarah joins us. Now, Joe, 17 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: can you talk a little bit about what the main 18 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: idea here is behind your column? Yeah? I UM, My 19 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 1: basic view is that just as we people in isolation 20 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 1: or wherever have become nicer to each other, more generous 21 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 1: to each other. Much the same thing is happening in 22 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: corporate America UM, where executives and top executives are caring 23 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 1: a lot more for their employees than they have in 24 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: the past. UM. You know, furloughs instead of layoffs, where 25 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 1: people get to keep healthcare UH, really trying to keep 26 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 1: people on the payroll even though they don't have that 27 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 1: much work to do the you know, free coronavirus testing UM, 28 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 1: and and on and on and on and and you 29 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: see this over and over and over. You you see 30 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 1: it in in the quarterly conference calls. Now you see 31 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 1: it in so many companies trying to do something to 32 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: h to stem this virus, even if even if their 33 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: business has nothing to do with medicine or health care UM. 34 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: And it just made me think, boy, you know, this 35 00:01:56,200 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: could signal a shift that would be good for the 36 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: country and good for employees and and and you know, 37 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: maybe even good for the stock ultimately. It's interesting, Joe, 38 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 1: I guess one of the key questions is can this 39 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 1: blast or is this just simply a function of the 40 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 1: time we're in Well, that's what we don't know. And 41 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 1: I certainly didn't um uh suggest that this is automatically 42 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 1: going to happen, or this was a guarantee. It's obviously 43 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: not a guarantee. UM, it's it's a little wishful thinking 44 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: on my part. I'm hopeful that this could happen. You know. 45 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 1: One of the things you've seen in America over time 46 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 1: is that you have seen these shifts in corporate values 47 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 1: over time. And the column that I wrote, I talked 48 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 1: a lot about, um, the post World War two era 49 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 1: where companies consciously hired more workers than they needed, knowing 50 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: that that was important to prevent a new depression. Uh, 51 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,360 Speaker 1: and also to create kind of a virtuous cycle where 52 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 1: you know, workers made products, other workers bought them, you know, 53 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: and you expanded the economy. Then you got into the 54 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:07,519 Speaker 1: era of shareholder value, which really started with the bullmarket 55 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 1: of the nineteen eighties, and you had a very different UM. 56 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 1: You had people like Chainsaw Al Dunlap bragged about all 57 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: the people he fired, you know, and UM, we are ready. 58 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: I think we're as a culture. I think we're ready 59 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: for something different. People are tired of the shareholder value 60 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 1: stuff and and the damage it does to employees and 61 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: consumers and and and in the country at large. Yeah, Joe, 62 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 1: that sounds wonderful. And uh, and I would I would 63 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 1: think that probably people would feel very happy if that 64 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: were the case. I'm looking right now Bank of America's shares, 65 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: they've gotten killed. And Bank of America is come one 66 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: company you highlighted as is trying to do the right 67 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: thing and promising no layoffs and and doing a host 68 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 1: of other issues to try to forestall some of the uh, 69 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: some of the pain throughout corporate and main street America. 70 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: Do you think that shareholders are going to get on 71 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: board here and basically end up sort of rewarding companies 72 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 1: that do take the angle that you're looking at, or 73 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 1: are they going to just say, look at the bottom line, 74 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: you're not gonna make as much money for me. Well, 75 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: there's going to be a giant reset in the market. 76 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 1: I mean, there's gonna be an enormous reset. And and 77 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: and yeah, Bank of America shares it down in part 78 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 1: because its revenues were down. Like, um, you know, I 79 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: think that I basically think that we could get to 80 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: a point where companies basically say, you know, dear Wall Street, 81 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: we're doing our best, but we've got a lot other 82 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,479 Speaker 1: things to worry about, and we want you to have 83 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: a seat at the table, but you're not the only seat, 84 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 1: and Wall Street is going to have to If enough 85 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: companies say that, Wall Street will have to accept it. 86 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:50,039 Speaker 1: If they don't, you know, then then we're back to 87 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: where we were. Yeah, So it's interesting there. As you 88 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,919 Speaker 1: well know, there's a movement within particularly institutional investing e 89 00:04:56,160 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 1: s G. Environmental sustainability and governance. So even institutional shareholders 90 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:03,799 Speaker 1: are you know, have been paying more and more attention 91 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 1: to things other than the bottom line. So perhaps this 92 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: just could be, you know, a further catalyst towards that, 93 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 1: and maybe you make e s G perhaps even more vibrant. Right, 94 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:15,920 Speaker 1: and then you have the whole thing with the Business 95 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:20,159 Speaker 1: round Table last year, UM, you know, changing its uh 96 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 1: motto or or creed or where you want to call 97 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 1: it UM to be more employer and consumer friendly and 98 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: not as as focused on shareholders. UM. You know a 99 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 1: lot of people thought that was this PR and exercise 100 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: and PR. But if you have some movement and then 101 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 1: all of a sudden you have this coronavirus that really 102 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:43,280 Speaker 1: changes the way people think. Maybe it can last. I'm 103 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 1: not saying it will. I'm saying I hope it does 104 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 1: at least, and I join you in that hope, Joe. 105 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 1: We'll see. But I agree it seems like something profound 106 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: uh is happening around the world as it relates to 107 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:57,840 Speaker 1: a coronavirus and will be lots of implications longer term, 108 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,480 Speaker 1: and we'll see if that applies to Corporate America's Jonas 109 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: Sarah Calmness for Bloomberg Opinion, joining us on the phone 110 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 1: from Los Angeles. Joe, thanks so much for joining so 111 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: you can read all of Joe's excellent opinion pieces as 112 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 1: well as all of the other work from Bloomberg Opinion 113 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com, slash Opinion or O P I 114 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:20,919 Speaker 1: n Go on the terminal. They do excellent work. So 115 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 1: there's a conundrume right now, Paul, and I keep using 116 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:26,279 Speaker 1: that word because it's very hard to understand the market 117 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 1: right now. It's hard to understand the rally that's recouped 118 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: all the gains all the losses. Rather, at least when 119 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: you look at the top one hundred nasdacs shares, is 120 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,719 Speaker 1: it time to get in and are we pricing in now? 121 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 1: The other side of this pandemic and the related recession 122 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 1: or people getting ahead of themselves and only there's no 123 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 1: one better to talk to than Chris Heisi, chief investment 124 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 1: officer for Maryland Make of America Private Bank, as he 125 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 1: talks with clients all day long about where what they're feeling, 126 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: and there are allocations. Chris come on in and when 127 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:56,919 Speaker 1: we take a look at the rally that we've seen 128 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: over the past few weeks, are people viewing this as 129 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: a dead cat bouncer? Are they viewing this as the 130 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: true signs of of sort of a shift in mood 131 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 1: at least on the part of equity buyers. Yeah. I 132 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 1: think the quick answer to that is when you're seeing 133 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: volatility declined by fifty from the record levels of eight 134 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: plus that we saw, which was indicating at least for 135 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 1: equities a five to six percent swing daily back you know, 136 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: during the the throes of March, now get into the 137 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: mid thirties, which is indicating, you know, below a two 138 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 1: daily swing. What that does is for the long term 139 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 1: UH investor, it provides comfort that, um, forget the fact 140 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: that whether or not you're gonna retest loads. It just 141 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 1: provides comfort that there is a little bit more a 142 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 1: surety that we're going to get to the other side. 143 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: Like in March, people didn't think we were going to 144 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: get to the other side at all. So now you've 145 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: got a little bit of comfort level on the long 146 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 1: term investor, but the short term investor, and you guys 147 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 1: have all seen this, Uh, the positioning in the marketplace 148 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: is still very very barished. And and if you're if 149 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 1: you're someone who thinks about quarter to quarter, whether you're 150 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 1: a hedge fund or an institutional investor, what what they're 151 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:17,679 Speaker 1: still very nervous about is this proverbial quote unquote need 152 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 1: to test the lows. And and that's a statement that 153 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: most people use because that's what's happened in history. But 154 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: quite frankly, this episode, this three pronged crisis, health, financial, 155 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 1: and economic that we're still going through is unlike anything 156 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: in history. The speed of the decline is being matched 157 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:40,959 Speaker 1: by what we call the speed of the exhale rebound. So, Chris, 158 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 1: is this just a rebound within a longer bear market 159 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 1: or do you think that once we do get to 160 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: the other side of this, And quite frankly, I'm not sure. 161 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:51,679 Speaker 1: I don't have great confidence that it's going to be 162 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 1: you know, shorter. It just feels all the information I 163 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 1: hear from the officials is that it could be longer 164 00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 1: than people think. But do you think once we do 165 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 1: get to the other side, that this is a market 166 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 1: that can still work higher. Yes, yes, there's a there's 167 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:07,440 Speaker 1: a few reasons for that. In the short term, it 168 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,200 Speaker 1: was about liquidity. We we got through that. Now now 169 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 1: we call the second phase the buffer or the bridge, 170 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:15,680 Speaker 1: and that is that is where the physical stimulus is 171 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: simply designed to to UM stop the ABYSS or at 172 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 1: least cover the ABYSS that we're all going through in 173 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 1: the second quarter and potentially part of the third. So 174 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:26,840 Speaker 1: UM investors are looking at the other side is a 175 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 1: lot longer than the ABYSS. So that was stage one, 176 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: and then stage three, which is next year, is a 177 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 1: true economic recovery. And then stage four or phase four 178 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: would be at the end of where you have a 179 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 1: pent up demand cycle. Now it's hard to see that now, 180 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: but when you look at income data in terms of 181 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: the number of claims, what these programs are designed to 182 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: do is still that unemployment claim gap. So even though 183 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 1: you're you're likely to see unemployment go way up. I mean, 184 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 1: that's pretty obvious people are getting that extra payment, so 185 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 1: when you come out on the other side, consumer spending 186 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 1: could actually go back to where it was, even though 187 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 1: consumers will still be tentative. Chris, when we look at 188 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 1: what has led some of the rebound recently, it's really 189 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: been big tech, and I've been really struck by the 190 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: NASDAC outperformance, with the top one hundred names out performing 191 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:28,439 Speaker 1: the Dow the most in decades. I'm trying to understand 192 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 1: whether big tech will continue to be the leadership going forward, 193 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 1: or whether perhaps people have hidden out too much in 194 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 1: these sort of the havens of this cycle, and these 195 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:41,839 Speaker 1: are expected to underperform in the near term. Great point, Lisa, 196 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 1: and I think the knee jerk reaction on a lot 197 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 1: of part of the analysts the analyst community is going 198 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 1: to be Hey, some of these companies are getting to 199 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: multiples that are simply too high. What many analysts are 200 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 1: not factoring in on a forward twelve, even thirty six 201 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:00,559 Speaker 1: month basis is many of these companies are now being 202 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:05,680 Speaker 1: being um their value creators, their growth creators, and actually 203 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: they happen to dominate the index. So if you get 204 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: passive investment flows coming back in, they filter down into 205 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: these names. They also happened to be the names that 206 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: are breaking through the COVID nineteen pressure, and they also 207 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 1: happened to be the names that are creating the greatest 208 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: free cash flow with yields where they're at in fixed 209 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 1: income land, free cash flow yield is extremely attractive and 210 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:32,839 Speaker 1: equity land. So it's kind of a three pronged benefit 211 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 1: for these companies, which is why we fully expect many 212 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 1: of them, particularly in tech and healthcare, UH, should go 213 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: to two multiples that they haven't experience in quite a 214 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 1: long period of time. Okay, christ, so we've got some 215 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 1: stability back in the marketplace. Is there enough stability in 216 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 1: the marketplace to even think about emerging markets an area 217 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 1: that's just been really, really crushed unfortunately. Now, we just 218 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: downgraded emerging markets on that little bit of a bounce 219 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 1: that we had a couple of weeks ago, the downgrade 220 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 1: to underweight from neutral UH and then took those proceeds 221 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: and moved into US large caps. And the whole reason 222 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 1: was is because of the extreme dollar liabilities, and until 223 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:14,440 Speaker 1: the dollar goes through a very significant week cycle, those 224 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 1: dollar liabilities, unfortunately can pressure emerging markets. At the same time, 225 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 1: that many of them have less than than high quality 226 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 1: health care systems. So if you put that out there, 227 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: the risk reward is still to the is still on 228 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: a relative basis, UH much less than than the developed 229 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 1: markets UM and specifically the US. Is there any asset 230 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 1: that you just would not own right now? Well, I 231 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,359 Speaker 1: think on the real estate side, it's it's very difficult 232 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 1: to to suggest that UM coming out to the other 233 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:49,200 Speaker 1: side that things will be normal and and we're not 234 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: significantly bearish on real estate commercial real estate in general, 235 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 1: but it's on the watch list, and it's on the 236 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: watch list for obvious reasons. What does corporate life look 237 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 1: like UM for the foreseeable future even when we get 238 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 1: to the other side and we have this this phrase 239 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 1: we call the new frontier, and the new frontier UH 240 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: is simply taking behaviors that we're all learning right now 241 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: while we're we are during the shutdown. What type of 242 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 1: behaviors that we're exhibiting now stands the test of time 243 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: and continues even if there's vaccines. And that hits at 244 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 1: the heart of what real estate may be pressured by, 245 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:30,680 Speaker 1: which is telecommunity, more telecommunity, less need for office space 246 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 1: than before E everything E learning, E education, virtualization, digitalization, 247 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:40,319 Speaker 1: things like that, um, you know, and less urbanization quite frankly, 248 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: so those are all things we're going through right now. Hey, Chris, 249 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,319 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. We appreciate your commentary 250 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 1: as always. Chris Hazy, chief investment officer for Meryl and 251 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:56,239 Speaker 1: Bank of America Private Bank. One of the most fascinating 252 00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 1: aspects to consider about this coronavirus is how it's going 253 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:04,199 Speaker 1: to impact consumers longer term. Will consumer trends be changing materially. 254 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:06,839 Speaker 1: To get some thoughts on that, we're really fortunate to 255 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:09,680 Speaker 1: welcome Mark Douglas. He's the chief executive officer of marketing 256 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 1: firm Steelhouse based in Los Angeles. Mark, thanks much for 257 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 1: joining us. Again, it just seems like everybody's lives has 258 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 1: been turned upside down with quarantining, and you just can't 259 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 1: do any of the things that you used to do 260 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: back pre crisis. What what have you observed about consumer 261 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 1: behavior over the last you know, call it four weeks, Yes, um, 262 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 1: good morning, So things have actually changed quite a bit. 263 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 1: There's kind of what we think of as a consumer 264 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: journey that's going on, and the wayward thing that is 265 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 1: my company Stillhouse. We're collecting data on about a billion 266 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: dollars a week in consumer spending. So the first week 267 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:50,280 Speaker 1: is what you would expect. Everyone stocked up and so 268 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 1: you know, groceries, UM, all those kinds of things really skyrocketed. 269 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 1: Probably the most interesting thing is UM about fourteen percent 270 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: more consumers two hundred and two percent more UM alcohol 271 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: and wine the first week, So it kind of shows 272 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 1: you how people are coping exactly at exactly. But the 273 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 1: second week, UM, what sort of happened is everyone UM 274 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 1: fitness grew by a dent week over weeks, so you know, 275 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 1: almost tripling a money spent on fitness equipment, UM, fitness 276 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 1: at home, UM, those kind of trends. UM. The other 277 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 1: thing that started to happen in the second week is 278 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 1: that other UM kind of what you would think of, 279 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 1: like business service people started building out their home offices 280 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 1: those kinds of things by the third in the fourth week, 281 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 1: what has happened is there's kind of a new consumer 282 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: to develop, what we're calling calling this COVID super consumer, 283 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 1: and they are buying anything on sale furniture, UM, luxury 284 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 1: goods UM just just like UM home. They're buying fishing equipment, 285 00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 1: golf clubs, just anything that's on sale, and and you know, 286 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 1: so this body of consumers that feel very secure financially 287 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 1: apparently are are like shopping like we've never seen before. 288 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 1: We kind of stay now like every day is Black 289 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 1: Friday for the consumers that can afford it. Wow, I 290 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 1: didn't expect that. Um. So is there any sense, Tim, 291 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: I mean, Mark, as you look forward here, um that 292 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 1: you think some of these behavior changes might be more permanent? 293 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: I'm thinking restaurants, Will people go out to restaurants as 294 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 1: much as they used to? And I'm sure the cruise 295 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 1: industry is trying to figure out will people ever come 296 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 1: back on our cruise ships? And will people get into 297 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 1: airplanes again? Is there any thought on that? Um? Yeah? 298 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: Bit So, We've worked with a lot of travel industry 299 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:45,120 Speaker 1: customers and that all of them, literally one hundred percent, 300 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 1: are now spending zero dollars on marketing at least um 301 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 1: the ones we work with, and we work with a 302 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 1: bunch of big ones, but we're also in conversations with them, 303 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 1: and they are very eager to store marketing again as 304 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 1: we start to come out that as crisis. So I 305 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: think the avel industry is going to be pretty aggressive 306 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,680 Speaker 1: and trying to get those early consumers to start um 307 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 1: traveling again. I think restaurants and this is a bit 308 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,239 Speaker 1: more of my personal opinion, not so much based on 309 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 1: the data. Um, there was a trend at least in 310 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: l A and New York to the concept of those 311 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: kitchens where restaurants don't have a storefront anymore. And um, 312 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:24,199 Speaker 1: and there's a startup founded by the founder of Bouber 313 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 1: who's got one of leading those kitchen companies. I think 314 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:30,880 Speaker 1: that is I'm betting, actually talking to someone yesterday, that 315 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 1: that is going to take off. And restaurants are a 316 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:39,640 Speaker 1: lot of restaurants gonna become at home only, delivery only. Yeah. Yeah, 317 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 1: I think people are getting you know, maybe getting good 318 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:43,679 Speaker 1: you know. The result of this may be getting more 319 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 1: comfortable you know, ordering uh, from getting it delivered. How 320 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:50,120 Speaker 1: about retailers, I mean that's another industry that had been 321 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:53,679 Speaker 1: challenged going into the crisis. We know that stores have 322 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 1: been closing and more and more shoppings going online. And 323 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,359 Speaker 1: I guess it seems reasonable to assume that that trend 324 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 1: towards a line shopping will just accelerate, I guess to 325 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 1: the benefit of Jeff Bezos. Yeah. Absolutely, the and and 326 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 1: we're seeing in our data. So you know, the first week, 327 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: you know, you had all of these categories that decline, 328 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 1: and we're seeing that the FLNE lesson each week. So 329 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 1: so consumers who who are in good shape financially UM 330 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 1: are buying in the retailers are you know, they're just 331 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: shifting their their their focus there. We have one customer 332 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 1: that has nine hundred stores, none of them are open, 333 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 1: and they are now spending pretty aggressively UM towards e 334 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 1: commerce results UM e commerce sALS and getting good results 335 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,160 Speaker 1: from that. I think consumers UM are there Probably one 336 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 1: category that suffered the most is apparel, basically clothing. I 337 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: mean there's not much no one's really going out, there's 338 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,120 Speaker 1: not much reason by appower. But we even seeing UM 339 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,640 Speaker 1: an increase in the apparel category in the fourth week 340 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,640 Speaker 1: since that we we consider the crisis started March. Their 341 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 1: team the day after the NBA stops to travel from Europe. 342 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 1: And so you know, we're at the end of the 343 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 1: fourth week right now we're seeing even apparel has picked 344 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,160 Speaker 1: up UM and and clothing things that are a little 345 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 1: harder to buy online, but consumers are still starting to 346 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 1: get active in that category. Interesting very interesting. I'd be 347 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:15,919 Speaker 1: interesting to see Mark, how this plays out longer term. 348 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:17,640 Speaker 1: We'll have you back to kind of as we get 349 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 1: through this pandemic, to kind of see how the consumer 350 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 1: is reacting. Uh, and uh, you know, we'll get some 351 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 1: more details, Mark Douglas, CEO of Steelhouse. It's a media 352 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 1: consulting firm and spending a lot of time with consumer 353 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 1: products companies and consumer facing companies getting a sense of, h, 354 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:36,440 Speaker 1: you know, how the consumer is changing, and clearly consumer 355 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:40,160 Speaker 1: behavior is changing dramatically. Uh during this lockdown. The question 356 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,200 Speaker 1: is how permanent will it be? Looking at the markets 357 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:45,240 Speaker 1: right here, just get you a quick data check, we 358 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,199 Speaker 1: still have green on the screen, still holding on to 359 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 1: those gains although they are giving there. We are off 360 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: the highs in the markets. Looking at the SMP right here, 361 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 1: up thirty eight points thirty seven on the SMP that 362 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: dows up it's called even three fifty points. That puts 363 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,640 Speaker 1: it at twenty three thousand, eight eighty right there on 364 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 1: the Dow. And then n AS DAK up thirty nine 365 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:10,400 Speaker 1: points eight seventy one on the Dow. Oil still negative, 366 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 1: still under twenty dollars a barrel. Just incredible supply demand 367 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 1: dynamics are pushing oil to just tremendous lows. We'll bring 368 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 1: it all more coming up. This is Bloomberg. Joe my 369 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,919 Speaker 1: seco covers all things municipal bonds for Bloomberg News. Joins 370 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 1: us job. I'm so glad you hear because I saw 371 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,680 Speaker 1: an interesting article on the Bloomberg about mass transit. I 372 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: don't know, but I'm sure I'm like most people here 373 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 1: in the metro area. I haven't been on in New 374 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 1: Jersey transit train in a month. I haven't been on 375 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 1: a subway in a month. That's got to be a big, 376 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: big revenue issue for some of these issuers. Talk to 377 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,399 Speaker 1: us about what's going on in mass transit and musical 378 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:56,120 Speaker 1: bond market. Mr Slaney, nice to speak to you again. Well, 379 00:20:56,480 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 1: as you point out, with the lockdown, when they're shutdowns 380 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 1: and so many of the large cities across the US, 381 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 1: and the ridership has evaporated, So you know, it depends 382 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 1: you know which city you're looking at, but you could 383 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 1: see ridership off fifty six because uh, so many people 384 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,679 Speaker 1: are just not using any more. Schools are shushed, a 385 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: lot of businesses are closed, or as you and I 386 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:32,640 Speaker 1: are doing, people working from home. Um, so it's that 387 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:36,679 Speaker 1: has a real impact on the fair box. Now most 388 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: places don't make uh, you know, their entire amount they 389 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 1: need from the fair box because it's you know, always 390 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 1: in mass transit there's so much dead time. Um. But 391 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:52,360 Speaker 1: that's having a real impact. And certainly we've heard from 392 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 1: Pat Foy on several occasions, you know, head of the 393 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 1: mt A in New York here and uh he's made 394 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: his uh you know, dissatisfaction or um, you know, a 395 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: feeling of of of lacking money in the federal government 396 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 1: several occasions. Yeah, so Joel, you know one of the 397 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,200 Speaker 1: you think about transportation. Initially we thought about the airlines. 398 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 1: Of course they're got getting crushed. They're getting some significant 399 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 1: aid from the government. But you know, the airlines before 400 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 1: the crisis, we had a great run here, a great 401 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:29,439 Speaker 1: decade of profitability and cash flow. But most mass transit 402 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 1: systems kind of went into this crisis already under pressure. 403 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:41,639 Speaker 1: Well you know, of course, they they were actually some 404 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 1: of them were losing ridership. And one of the reasons 405 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:50,680 Speaker 1: was alternative methods of going in, meaning you know, people 406 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 1: were biking in and sometimes people were taking uber and 407 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: lifted and even working from home. So I remember, Wow, 408 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,159 Speaker 1: we talked about this last summer. Moodies came out with 409 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 1: a little port on this very subject about how there 410 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 1: were a lot of different, uh you know, alternatives that 411 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 1: were eating into mass transits ridership, and of course this 412 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:18,360 Speaker 1: you know is you know, chips us over the edge here. 413 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 1: It's interesting thinking about this, the shutdown and work at home. 414 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 1: I mean that I'm thinking about the states as well. Um, 415 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 1: California saw in the story on them on the Bloomberg 416 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 1: California faces a budget shortfall that could top thirty five 417 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,720 Speaker 1: billion dollars. How are the you know, what's the feeling 418 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:36,640 Speaker 1: in miss A bond Land about how some of these 419 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 1: states and local municipalities deal with this crisis. Well, you know, 420 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 1: there's always a little bit of the weight and see attitude. 421 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 1: You don't want to, you know, hit the panic button immediately. 422 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:53,359 Speaker 1: Plus the federal government is throwing a lot of money 423 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 1: at the situation between um, you know, the the money 424 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,360 Speaker 1: that Congress put a side at two point two trillion 425 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,480 Speaker 1: relief package that's going to help out, and then you 426 00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 1: have the federal reserve with I have the billion dollars 427 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 1: ball apparently being just the first, uh, the first step 428 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:18,919 Speaker 1: of that sort of rescue package. But yeah, they you know, 429 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 1: you've you've shut down. Um, I guess of the economy, 430 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,639 Speaker 1: they say, And for some states that's going to have 431 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 1: a much bigger impact than others. Uh so yeah, it's 432 00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:37,159 Speaker 1: people are sort of they're shocked, but they're not surprised. Wow. 433 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:41,200 Speaker 1: Interesting not to see the federal government come to the rescue. 434 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 1: And there's a lot of states that are hit worse 435 00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:44,639 Speaker 1: than others, I think in some of the bigger states 436 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:48,359 Speaker 1: like New York, like California. John Meis, thanks so much 437 00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 1: for joining us on this Friday. Stay safe working from home, 438 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:55,359 Speaker 1: and we will chat with you soon. John mysec Easyness Baban, 439 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 1: editor for Bloomberg Briefs. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 440 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,399 Speaker 1: pl podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at 441 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. M Paul Sweeney, 442 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,919 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa abram Woyit's 443 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Lisa abram woits one before the podcast. 444 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,560 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio