1 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 2: This is your weekly Washington Policy Pulse, the Balance of 3 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 2: Power podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior 4 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 2: policy analyst and friend of the show, Nathan Dean shares 5 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 2: his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capital. 6 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from 7 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 2: our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's 8 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 2: Nathan Dean. 9 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 3: Okay, good morning and good afternoon everybody. Welcome again to 10 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 3: the Washington Policy Pulse. 11 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:38,319 Speaker 4: My name is Nathan Dean. 12 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 3: I'm a senior policy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence here in Washington, DC. 13 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 3: We want to thank you very much for joining, and 14 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:46,919 Speaker 3: we also want to thank those of you who are 15 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 3: listening to this via the Balance of Power podcast. 16 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:51,239 Speaker 4: Now, we're going to do this call a little bit 17 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 4: differently today. 18 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 3: Normally we spend about ten minutes just going through what's 19 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 3: happening here in Washington. But as you pretty much all know, 20 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 3: the US government has been shut and remained shut, and 21 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 3: so I thought it'd be best to bring in a 22 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 3: panel of experts from Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg Economics, and Bloomberg 23 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 3: ne ef, the three research worm worms, the three research 24 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 3: arms don't think we're worms, the three research arms of 25 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,320 Speaker 3: the Bloomberg terminal. Now, there's there's gonna be a lot 26 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:19,119 Speaker 3: of information flowing today. So if you do have access 27 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 3: to a terminal and you want copies of any of 28 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 3: the research or notes that we will be talking about 29 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:28,039 Speaker 3: referring to today, please don't hesitate to reach out either 30 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 3: to myself or to any of the individuals on the call. 31 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 3: We love it when you reach out to us, and 32 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 3: we'll get a copy of that for you. So just 33 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:36,960 Speaker 3: as it heads up, before we talk about our turn 34 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 3: to our panel, I just want to give the current 35 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 3: situation and where we are in terms of the shutdown. 36 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 4: Now. 37 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 3: We spent over the weekend and really there has been 38 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 3: little to no negotiations between the Senate lawmakers, specifically Senator 39 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 3: John Thune and Senator Chuck Schumer. Now Speaker of the 40 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 3: House Mike Johnson even told his caucus today the House 41 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 3: Republicans to not return to not return to not return 42 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 3: to Washington and until after the Senate Democrats, in his words, 43 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 3: signed on to the stopgap solution that opens the government 44 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 3: until November twentieth, So I actually think that we're not 45 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 3: going to see much happening this week. Republicans won't be here, 46 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 3: at least the House Republicans won't be here, and the 47 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 3: polling data over the weekend essentially suggested that both parties 48 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 3: feel that they're still quote unquote winning, although I'd argue 49 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:25,519 Speaker 3: that shutdowns aren't about winning, it's about who's losing less. 50 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 3: But both parties believe that they're actually in a position 51 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 3: where they are actually are politically advantageous. And that's one 52 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 3: of those situations where, you know what, when both our 53 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 3: parties are feeling good, then essentially nothing's going to happen 54 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 3: until one party begins to feel pressure. 55 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 4: Now, a couple of dates to keep in mind. 56 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 3: The first day is the government employees pay check date 57 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 3: is on October tenth. Military members get paid on October fifteenth, 58 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:49,640 Speaker 3: and that's one of the reasons why the House Republicans 59 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 3: I think aren't here is because then you're not going 60 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 3: to get a lot of questions off, well, why are 61 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 3: Congressional members paid but staffers, government workers, and the military 62 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 3: aren't being paid. Also, just for what it's worth, I've 63 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 3: got a lot of client questions on what happens with 64 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 3: airplanes because a lot of people I think are still 65 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 3: flying TSA agents are going to be working. 66 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 4: They're essential. 67 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 3: They may be a little grumpy because they don't have 68 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:11,679 Speaker 3: a paycheck, so be nice to them, but you're still 69 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 3: going to be able to fly. So for some reason, 70 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 3: we've got a lot of questions from clients specifically that. 71 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:18,920 Speaker 4: They want they were going to go fly. So I 72 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 4: just want to throw that out there. 73 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,119 Speaker 3: So first up, I want to bring in Anna Wong, 74 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,640 Speaker 3: our chief US economist from Bloomberg Economics. 75 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 4: So, Anna, you often. 76 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 3: Go on Bloomberg TV and radio talking about unemployment data. 77 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 4: You know what's happening with the government shutdown. 78 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 3: I was listening to you just last week as you 79 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 3: were on one of our media platforms talking about this. 80 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 3: So as the government shutdown continues and as you know, 81 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 3: potentially stretches a little bit longer, what are the things 82 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 3: that you're looking for, What are the most key important 83 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 3: factors that you're concerned about, and just any other key 84 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 3: thoughts you have on the shutdown. 85 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 5: Sure, so I can give a few bullets on how 86 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 5: the shutdown is affecting the economy. First on GDP, So 87 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 5: the rural thumb for feed staff is that for every 88 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 5: week the government shutdown, it shapes up about zero point 89 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 5: two percentage point off the annuallyzed real GDP growth in 90 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:18,159 Speaker 5: the quarter. So this negative effect would be recuperated the 91 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:23,040 Speaker 5: moment that the government reopens. But you can imagine if 92 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 5: the shutdown lastsen to mid November, then there won't be 93 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 5: enough time for the rest of the quarter to make 94 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 5: up for the lost GDP and you would start to 95 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 5: see the overall quarterly GDP numberbie weaker as a result. 96 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 5: But as long as the shutdown is over by mid November, 97 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 5: I expect very little impact on GDP. Now, for the 98 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,839 Speaker 5: labor market statistics, which is something the market pays a 99 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 5: lot of attention to non farm payrolls, the way it 100 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 5: records furloled worker is that it doesn't so furlold government 101 00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 5: workers will still be counted as employee. They will be 102 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 5: so uh they they they won't knock up anything from 103 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:11,480 Speaker 5: the non farm payrolls. However, the you know, a vendor 104 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 5: in Washington, d C Serving lunch uh to government workers, well, 105 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,720 Speaker 5: because there's no government workers working for a whole month, 106 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 5: they may be uh, they may not be. You know, 107 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 5: most retail workers and restaurants they are paid weekly, they 108 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 5: may drop off the non farm payroll, so it could 109 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 5: we we can still see leisure and hospitalities seeing some 110 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 5: impact from UH. Permanent impacts from from this shutdown. Unemployment rate, 111 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 5: so furloughed workers are accounted as temporarily unemployed in the 112 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:52,159 Speaker 5: unemployment survey, which is why UH. If the if BLS 113 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 5: ended up being able to conduct the house of survey, 114 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:58,600 Speaker 5: it will show that the unemployment rate would have spike 115 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 5: during this period of shutdown. So if the shutdown lasts 116 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:06,600 Speaker 5: through the reference free with the household Survey, which is 117 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:12,799 Speaker 5: October twelfth to eighteen, the unemployment rate will spike. Now 118 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:17,599 Speaker 5: then there's a different issue of will these data be 119 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 5: collected at all. So if the shutdown lasts beyond the 120 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 5: eighteenth of October, then the household survey collection would be 121 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 5: disrupted because it's the eighteenth where they would be starting 122 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 5: to conduct these surveys, and it's very difficult for the 123 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 5: BLS to, you know, in November next time they survey 124 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 5: the household to ask a back backward question of were 125 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 5: you employed in October. So the last time where we 126 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 5: saw BLS has had experienced such a big disruption to 127 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,679 Speaker 5: data collection was a long long time ago. In fact, 128 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 5: would have to be twenty thirteen. These the twenty eighteen shutdown, 129 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 5: BLS was funded, so CPI and on farm payroll was 130 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 5: not disrupted. The twenty thirteen shutdown, well, it was only 131 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 5: October first to sixteenth. Right now, poly market has at 132 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 5: seventy percent that this shutdown will last beyond October fifteenth, 133 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 5: meaning that most of October indeed would be the data 134 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 5: collection effort would be disrupted if the betting market were right. 135 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 5: So well, the last time we saw more than half 136 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 5: of the month being disrupted by shutdown was actually nineteen 137 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 5: ninety five, so you really have to go back to 138 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 5: you know, almost like thirty years back to see what 139 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 5: happened to data statistics if BLS were disrupted. Now getting 140 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 5: to CPI, it looks like CPI won't be published after all, 141 00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 5: given the if the betting market were right, and also 142 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 5: this would also mean that half the month at least 143 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 5: for October's CPI collection would be disrupted. Fortunately, it seems 144 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 5: that about forty to fifty percent of the CPI basket 145 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 5: is based on transaction and administrative data, which means that 146 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 5: you could BLS could still have those records later on 147 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 5: if they want to reconstruct October's CPI data. However, the 148 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:37,559 Speaker 5: housing survey is based on field agents. Also, food prices 149 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 5: and restaurant prices are also based on field a collection, 150 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:46,319 Speaker 5: so you would have half of the CPI basket being disrupted. Now, 151 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 5: the significance of the October CPI collection being disrupted cannot 152 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 5: be overstated because this is actually the month that would 153 00:08:55,400 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 5: determine the cost of living adjustment for Social Security. So again, 154 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 5: the last time we saw October CPI being disrupted by 155 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 5: shut downs twenty thirteen, only partially, So this time this 156 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 5: shutdown may have implications on even Social Security costs of 157 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 5: living adjustments. So that's it for me. 158 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 4: So rule one quick follow up. 159 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 3: One of the questions I've gotten from my clients is 160 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 3: how do we think of data, Like, obviously the data 161 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 3: is not coming in when you do your analyses, Like 162 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 3: what are you like, how are you dealing with lack 163 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 3: of data that's coming in from the government. 164 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 5: Okay, so we are very busy finding ways to plug 165 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 5: this data gap. So on jobless claims every Thursday. Fortunately, 166 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:43,439 Speaker 5: Department of Labor actually publish state level jobless claims data 167 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:47,199 Speaker 5: and the afternoons of Thursday, so our team would become 168 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 5: highly and coming up with the seasonally adjusted national data 169 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 5: based on these non seasonally adjusted state leveled jobless claims 170 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 5: data that they have. So for jobless claims, we still 171 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:03,680 Speaker 5: have those data now. For non farm payrolls with many 172 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 5: private providers, last week we saw the ADP came out 173 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 5: with a super negative number. But for my team, we 174 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 5: are compiling, we are putting a lot of time, and. 175 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 4: We are hiring. 176 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 5: We are also buying very detailed level payrolls data to 177 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:28,840 Speaker 5: try to do it the way that bl asked us. Now, 178 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 5: the problem with ADP's data last week is they don't 179 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 5: they don't process the data like bl Asked does. So 180 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 5: that negative thirty two k I would take with a 181 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 5: very heavy grain of salt because they're just not doing 182 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 5: it the same way that BLS does it. So we 183 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 5: think that at the end of the day, if you 184 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 5: look at a range of alternative data, there is still 185 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:55,319 Speaker 5: positive job growth. Payrolls is probably growing at about fifty 186 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 5: to sixty K per month, which is above the break 187 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 5: even for unemployment eight. Ployment rate is probably stable at 188 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:05,559 Speaker 5: four prid three percent. Now for CPI, my team has 189 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 5: been scraping. We are we have now been tracking online prices. 190 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 5: We have about twenty million of online prices are we 191 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 5: are going to be putting out a series of work 192 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 5: on how we are seeing these online prices. So we 193 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 5: are also trying to do process those data as close 194 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 5: to how BLS does it as possible, and so yeah, great, 195 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 5: we'll be yeah perfect. 196 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,760 Speaker 3: Well, thank you very much, appreciate you joining us, and 197 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 3: you can read all of her stuff on the terminal. 198 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:41,320 Speaker 3: She's actually she's putting out a lot of great content. 199 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 3: So Dwayne, let's bring it to you. Dwayne normally sits 200 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 3: three seats over for me today, but obviously he's in 201 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 3: seven thirty one Lexington Avenue, our headquarters up in New York. Dwayne, 202 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,439 Speaker 3: as you think of the shutdown and specifically this Obamacare 203 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 3: subsidies argument, what impact does it have on healthcare? And 204 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 3: what do you think how do you think the Obamacare 205 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 3: subsidy argument plays out with the Democrats and Republicans? 206 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:10,440 Speaker 6: Yeah? Thanks, So, I think the way to look at 207 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:14,440 Speaker 6: this is we're not talking about just the subsies as 208 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 6: a whole. We're talking about a change that was made 209 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 6: during the COVID era COVID relief package that was somewhere 210 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,079 Speaker 6: around two trillion dollars. Included were enhanced subsidies so that 211 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 6: individuals making up to a certain income, say one hundred 212 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:33,839 Speaker 6: and fifty percent of poverty, would pay nothing in premiums, 213 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 6: and then everybody else above that would pay less of 214 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 6: their income and premiums. And also opened up this other 215 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 6: category for people making over four hundred percent of poverty, 216 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 6: which is about sixty two thousand dollars dollars this year, 217 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 6: to pay no more than eight and a half percent 218 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 6: of their income. And that has led to a pretty 219 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 6: significant boom and the number of people ensured through the marketplace. 220 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 6: We're up to about twenty four million people right now, 221 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 6: and insures I've done fairly well in terms of bringing 222 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 6: in new customers. You have companies like the Team that 223 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 6: are very heavily government insurance dominated through Medicaid now ACA, 224 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 6: United Health, and some other companies, and so that generosity 225 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,560 Speaker 6: could end. And I think the Republican standpoint has been 226 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 6: well one. They tried to get rid of the affordable 227 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:34,960 Speaker 6: character a couple of years ago under the first Trump administration. 228 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 6: They still see overall cost challenges with the program. It's 229 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 6: subsidies aren't targeted. People with juy income are benefiting, and 230 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 6: so there's this thinking that the substy should just go away, 231 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:52,439 Speaker 6: especially when you think about the fact that extending them 232 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:56,079 Speaker 6: for even one year is twenty five twenty to twenty 233 00:13:56,080 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 6: five billion dollars, and I know Democrats are asking for 234 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 6: a ten year extension at around three hundred, three hundred 235 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 6: and fifty billion over ten years. So I think we 236 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 6: can agree that's not going to happen. I think that 237 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 6: if you'd asked me at the beginning of the year 238 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 6: what is going to happen here, I would say, well, 239 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 6: there's just zero chance that this is going to get extended. 240 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 6: But then over time we've seen pulling from Republican firms 241 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 6: basically say there's a lot of support from this, not 242 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 6: just from Harris voters, but Trump voters, Republicans and independents. 243 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 6: So I think that created a lot of pressure for 244 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 6: some of the more modern Republicans where because of the 245 00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:46,160 Speaker 6: demographics there is a lot of support for extending these substies, 246 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 6: but their constituents benefit from an extension. And so where 247 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 6: this is probably going if this does get extended, if 248 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 6: they do get extended, is I'm guessing a two year 249 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 6: extension because I can't imagine they'd want to come back 250 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 6: and do this next year, because a lot of this 251 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 6: is consumers getting notices in October that their premiums are 252 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 6: going to go up however many percent. So you we 253 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 6: should the consumers should be getting that soon if they 254 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 6: haven't gotten that already, and next year, if they only 255 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 6: do a one year extension, they'll get it right before 256 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 6: the election or as they're voting, with early voting, So 257 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 6: the outlines of a compromise or there where you can say, Okay, 258 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 6: if you're making over four hundred percent of poverty, you 259 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 6: either get no subsidy or less generous subsidy, and then 260 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 6: everybody benethink it's less generous, so it's not a twenty 261 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 6: billion dollars new cost, or if it's two years, forty 262 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 6: to forty five billion. So that's probably where we're headed. 263 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 6: But time will tell in terms of what kind of 264 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 6: commitments maybe Democrats are willing to accept, or at least 265 00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 6: a handful of Democrats are willing to accept to shutdown. 266 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 3: You know, as an alumna of the Senate, you know, 267 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 3: Dwayne is one of our Senate whisperers what's your thought 268 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 3: on when to the sentence. 269 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 6: Oh, I can see this going another week, so into 270 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 6: next week. I think that it seems as though there 271 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 6: are conversations that are happening from a handful of members 272 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 6: that probably didn't want to do this shutdown in the 273 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 6: first place, and I think it ends with again some 274 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 6: kind of agreement that there's a commitment. Now it's not 275 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 6: necessarily something that maybe Schumer will bless publicly, but at 276 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 6: least allows the party to move on. I think the 277 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 6: base got their shutdown. There has to be some way 278 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 6: out of this, and I think that's where we're heading, 279 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 6: is a commitment to address this for probably two years. 280 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 3: Sounds good. Well, thank you, Dwayne, really appreciate it. Chris, 281 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 3: let's go to you now. Inside baseball information folks, when 282 00:16:57,880 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 3: we had our Boomberg chat trying to figure out what 283 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 3: we were going to talk about today, Chris comes in 284 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 3: and says, I want to talk about econ statecraft tools, 285 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 3: which sounds really really cool to me. So, Chris, can 286 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 3: you just give us a brief background of your role 287 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 3: within Bloomberg Economics and the Geoeconomics team and what you'd 288 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 3: like to talk about in terms of econ statecraft tools 289 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 3: and their shutdown. 290 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 1: Sure, thanks, Nathan, appreciate being able to join this morning. 291 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:27,399 Speaker 1: So I'm on the new Geoeconomics team, part of Bloomberg Economics. 292 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 1: Joined about two and a half months ago. I was 293 00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: at the State Department prior to that, and also on 294 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 1: the National Security Council under both Biden and Trump, so 295 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:38,200 Speaker 1: got to see some of the evolution of these tools 296 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,439 Speaker 1: into this new Trump administration. So just wanted to give 297 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 1: a brief overview of how the shutdown is affecting the 298 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 1: tools that are available to the Trump administration. Starting with 299 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: trade has been talked about. Many of the trade investigation 300 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 1: investigations are continuing, especially those related to national security. So 301 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 1: those are all of the Section two thirty two investigation 302 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 1: specifically focused on things like semiconductors, critical minerals, process critical minerals. 303 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 1: We expect to see a result of that at the 304 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 1: end of this month. There are some other trade actions 305 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:16,920 Speaker 1: that are pause, specifically some of the anti dumping Countervailing 306 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: duty or ADCBD investigations that require the US International Trade 307 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 1: Commission support, and some of the other activities done by 308 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:32,960 Speaker 1: Commerce Export controls a big focus. Last week, Commerce announced 309 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 1: they're going to be taking a more of a Treasury 310 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:40,239 Speaker 1: sanction style approach, where any subsidiary of an entity that 311 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: is currently under export control rules that's fifty percent more 312 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 1: owned is now subject. That led to a huge explosion 313 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:52,719 Speaker 1: in tripling basically of the number of entities. We're going 314 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,440 Speaker 1: to continue to see some export control action. What will 315 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 1: be affected is licensing, at least the less urgent licensing 316 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 1: could slow down some things for some firms. 317 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 4: We'll have to see how this plays out. 318 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 1: And certainly the longer the shut shutdown lasts, the more 319 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: impactful this will be. Also with Treasury, Treasury will continue 320 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 1: to maintain their sanctions list and enforcement of sanctions that's 321 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 1: considered a core national security activity by Treasury, where we 322 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,640 Speaker 1: will see some slow down at Treasuries. On SCIFIUS, so SIPHIUS, 323 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 1: the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States approves 324 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: transactions from foreign entities buying US assets, companies, and big investments. 325 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: We saw this, you know famously with the NIP on 326 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 1: steel US steel transaction. So the shutdown affects this process. 327 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: It basically leads to tolling. There are no more deadlines, 328 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 1: so we can expect delays in the review of these cases, 329 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 1: and there will not be any legal penalty to the 330 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: government for those delays. Moving on to commercial development finance, 331 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,199 Speaker 1: so this has been a big, you know, big in 332 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,920 Speaker 1: the news. The US government has taken stakes in several 333 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 1: companies over the past several months. What we're going to 334 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:11,359 Speaker 1: see so DFC is our big international development finance agency. 335 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 1: They've furlowed about two thirds of their staff. They are 336 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: going to continue dispersing funds as they are legally obligated 337 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 1: to do so for existing deals that they have that's 338 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 1: both on the loan and equity side of their transactions, 339 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: but they won't be initiating any new investments while the 340 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 1: shutdown is is ongoing. DoD has a little bit more flexibility, 341 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 1: so they DPA. The Defense Production Act Title III, which 342 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: we use to to to invest in critical minerals and 343 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:48,199 Speaker 1: other projects, tends to be operating on multi year or 344 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,439 Speaker 1: zero year funding, so they still have some funding to 345 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 1: continue those operations, especially where there's a clear national security nexus. 346 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,119 Speaker 1: It's a little bit less clear with the Office of 347 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 1: Strategic Capital, and they're our ability to do some of 348 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: the more novel types of investments that we've seen recently. 349 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: So I'll leave it there. We have a research note 350 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 1: that's going to come out later today, So feel free 351 00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 1: to ping me on the terminal if I can be 352 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:13,920 Speaker 1: of help and happy to chat anytime. 353 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 3: Thanks, no, thanks, Chris. And where's the best place to 354 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:17,159 Speaker 3: get your stuff? 355 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:18,159 Speaker 4: You know? 356 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,439 Speaker 3: And you know, I also just going to highlight you know, 357 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 3: you have this fault Lines newsletter that goes out from 358 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 3: the team too, right. 359 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:28,600 Speaker 1: That's correct, and you can sub subscribe to our work 360 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: geo econ. You type that into the terminal and you 361 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 1: can subscribe and get updates every time. Our team, which 362 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 1: is about twelve analysts, publish items on everything you know 363 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:44,439 Speaker 1: related to the Japanese election over the weekend to you know, 364 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 1: a retrospective. I think we're gonna have some pieces coming 365 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 1: out on the anniversary of October seventh, just you know, 366 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:53,119 Speaker 1: laying out where things are and the impacts and what 367 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:54,239 Speaker 1: investors should be looking at. 368 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:54,680 Speaker 4: Yeah. 369 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,200 Speaker 3: I was talking to our colleague Adam Ferrer from your 370 00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 3: team about the Japanese in election in the pantry rape 371 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:01,879 Speaker 3: before with the call, and there's some really interesting stuff 372 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 3: coming out on that. So again, if you're interested in 373 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,640 Speaker 3: the Japanese election, feel free we'll put you in touch. 374 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 4: Great. 375 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,359 Speaker 3: Thanks, Chris appreciate it. So Derek, let's talk about Bloomberg 376 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 3: ne EF, clean energy grants, infrastructure programs. You know, as 377 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,159 Speaker 3: you see the shutdown continuing, and one of the questions 378 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:19,920 Speaker 3: we get often, in fact I got it from a 379 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,199 Speaker 3: Bloomberg analyst in London just this morning was how do 380 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 3: we deal and how do we think about these grant cancelations? 381 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 3: So what are you thinking in terms of, you know, 382 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 3: these infrastructure projects and seeing announcements from President Trump and 383 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 3: the White House that certain things are being canceled. 384 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 7: Sure, so thanks, thank thank for the intro. I'm very 385 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 7: happy to be here. For those who don't know, Bloomberg 386 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 7: anf is Bloomberg's research service focused on energy, commodities, Internet 387 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 7: transition to climate and so we've been observing grant cancelations 388 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 7: from the Trump administration for a while now. In fact, 389 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,679 Speaker 7: preceding the shutdown, there was about eight billion dollars in 390 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 7: grant cancelations announced by the Admin a few days ago, 391 00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 7: basically as part of the budget fight. Trump is openly 392 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,119 Speaker 7: said that he basically wants to make this herd Democrats, 393 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,040 Speaker 7: and so a lot of the programs that were highlighted 394 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:05,719 Speaker 7: were in democratic states. 395 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 4: Hydrogen hubs of the Pacific. 396 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 7: Northwestern California, which are pretty major economic development projects at 397 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 7: least politically, had about two point two billion dollars. Substantial 398 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,159 Speaker 7: chunk of that canceled Grid projects in California in the 399 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,199 Speaker 7: Upper Midwest like Minnesota accounted for about another billion dollars 400 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 7: of that. But this is very much in continuity with 401 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:29,119 Speaker 7: the administration's approach before. In fact, some of these grants 402 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 7: that were identified as being canceled on a list that 403 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 7: leachs from the DOE were from the Industrial Demonstrations Program, 404 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:40,440 Speaker 7: which had already had a formal cancelation previously. And in fact, 405 00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 7: I think that's why the politics of this are not 406 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 7: necessarily as forceful. 407 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 4: To the Dems as the admin would have liked. 408 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 7: The Dems hit back pretty quickly by putting out a 409 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 7: list of congressional districts that were affected by these cuts 410 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 7: that included a substantial number of swing seats or Republican 411 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 7: leaning seats in California and New York some other jurisdictions 412 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 7: where in the event of a wave of election next 413 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,199 Speaker 7: year there might be some vulnerability for Republicans, although if 414 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 7: you look at the state level as well as the 415 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 7: district level. Generally speaking, the actual money in Republican districts 416 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 7: is less affected. So I think this speaks to a 417 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 7: broader issue of control of infrastructure permitting and financing that's 418 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 7: in a bit of a tug of war right now 419 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:31,359 Speaker 7: between the executive branch and the legislative branch. Trump admin 420 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 7: has been trying quite forcefully to cancel and remake funding 421 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:40,160 Speaker 7: opportunities with a wide amount of discretion, in a way 422 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 7: that Congress historically has been very jealous of losing such powers. 423 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 7: Because of the same party control between Republicans and the 424 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 7: legislature and the executive there hasn't been as much pushback 425 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 7: this time, but I think there is a broader question, 426 00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,640 Speaker 7: certainly among appropriators in Congress over how far this can go. 427 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,440 Speaker 7: And I would say more broadly that there are legal 428 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:10,200 Speaker 7: questions proceeding about how much executive work can remain funded 429 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,160 Speaker 7: and operational under the shutdown and how far can go. 430 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,960 Speaker 7: So on the dem side, there's not really as much, 431 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,640 Speaker 7: you know, leverage from these actions, because I think there's 432 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,879 Speaker 7: sense the Trump administration was canceling a lot of these anyway, 433 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,399 Speaker 7: some of them they already had. And then on the 434 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,119 Speaker 7: other side there's a question of how much of this 435 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,679 Speaker 7: is ultimately going to stick. And the administration itself is 436 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 7: facing some challenges pushing forward its infrastructure permitting and funding 437 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,679 Speaker 7: work as appropriations begin to lapse. 438 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 4: You know, they have existing. 439 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:46,119 Speaker 7: Funds, they can draw on DOE EPA for a few days, 440 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:47,879 Speaker 7: and then they're going to have to start furlowing people. 441 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 7: Up to ninety percent of EPA staff might be furloughed, 442 00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,359 Speaker 7: which is actually a bit of a problem for some 443 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:56,159 Speaker 7: of their deregulatory work potentially. And meanwhile, we're seeing some 444 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,440 Speaker 7: of these court battles directly affected by the shutdown. The 445 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:03,440 Speaker 7: Trump Station has tried to halt a lawsuit with Maryland 446 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 7: over an offshore wind project they're trying to cancel some 447 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 7: permits for, and then the judge in the case basically said, 448 00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,679 Speaker 7: you can try and use this shutdown as an excuse, 449 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 7: but I'm not really going to let you do that. 450 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:16,880 Speaker 7: You may not have lawyers who are funded to work 451 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 7: on this right now, but the case can proceed. So 452 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 7: I think there's a bit of a complicated dance here, 453 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 7: and the main impact is that the regulatory environment for 454 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:32,639 Speaker 7: infrastructure investments remains wildly uncertain, and with the long term 455 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 7: impact that investors need to look at. I think one 456 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:38,280 Speaker 7: thing to look at down the line is what happens 457 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 7: in Congress. As long as there's kind of bad blood 458 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 7: on these funding and permitting negotiations, I think it hinders 459 00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 7: prospects for permitting reform in Congress because, as one of 460 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:52,199 Speaker 7: them's main contingents here has been, they're not sure that 461 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 7: there can be a really stable deal they trust the 462 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,880 Speaker 7: Trump administration to enforce. So if there is some kind 463 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 7: of deal that addresses future funding and like the application 464 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,359 Speaker 7: of any regulations on permitting reform, that could create a 465 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,920 Speaker 7: bit more predictability. But right now, I don't think that's 466 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,360 Speaker 7: the most likely outcome. We're going to see what this 467 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,639 Speaker 7: really results in at the end. But I think, as 468 00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,639 Speaker 7: Dwayne was saying, we're going to have a few more 469 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,080 Speaker 7: days of uncertainty here yet. 470 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, no, that makes sense, and so you know we're 471 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:24,879 Speaker 3: going to We're actually getting close to thirty minutes, so 472 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:26,840 Speaker 3: we're going to leave it there. Derek, last question for you, 473 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:28,719 Speaker 3: where can we find you on the terminal? You know, 474 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 3: how can folks read your research? 475 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 7: Absolutely go to d n EF go on the terminal 476 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 7: to see some of ourliest research or an ef W 477 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,880 Speaker 7: which gets you to the BNF website for those who 478 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,440 Speaker 7: have access. Some of our stuff will also be featured 479 00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 7: in place like the Green Newsletter as well as Energy 480 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:46,880 Speaker 7: or the Elements Newsletter. 481 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 4: Okay, well great, thank you everybody. 482 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:51,639 Speaker 3: Last thing, just as a heads up for those of 483 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 3: you who have exposure to farmers or to agriculture, there's 484 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,639 Speaker 3: a lot of talk about potentially tomorrow Secretary Vestent and 485 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,680 Speaker 3: announcing a farm aid deal. If you recall, back in 486 00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:06,320 Speaker 3: the first Trump administration, they gave out about twenty three 487 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:10,480 Speaker 3: billion dollars in terms of farm aide. Correct currently right 488 00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,119 Speaker 3: now they're talking about ten billion dollars, but there was 489 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,679 Speaker 3: some reporting last week that Republicans could potentially see up 490 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 3: to fifty billion dollars. So just as a heads up, 491 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 3: there's some thought of that this could actually come out 492 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 3: sometime tomorrow. 493 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 4: So that with that, we're going to say thank you 494 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:24,920 Speaker 4: very much. 495 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,440 Speaker 3: We really appreciate you sticking around. I saw actually most 496 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,320 Speaker 3: of you stuck around for the entire thirty minutes, so 497 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,840 Speaker 3: we really appreciate it. If we can ever be of assistance, 498 00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,000 Speaker 3: please don't hesitate to reach out and we'll talk soon. 499 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 2: Our thanks to Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst, 500 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 2: bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse. 501 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,280 Speaker 2: For more from BI or to join this call live 502 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:52,200 Speaker 2: each week, you can email Nathan at ndan at Bloomberg 503 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 2: dot net. That's nd EA n at Bloomberg dot net. 504 00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 2: Come back to the podcast later today for the latest 505 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:00,440 Speaker 2: edition of Balance of Power 506 00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:13,320 Speaker 5: Sh