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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: It is time for Week six of the NFL season.

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Speaker 1: The time is flying by, and today, of course it

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Speaker 1: is Tuesday, and that means that we are going to

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Speaker 1: be taking a little bit of a look back at

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Speaker 1: the week that was and how certain teams have changed

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Speaker 1: are perceptions of them from week to week. Here and

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Speaker 1: here today to help us do that, of course, as

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Speaker 1: always the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and today joining us

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Speaker 1: from the Hammer Network to help us hammer some of

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Speaker 1: these teams back down. It is none other than Rob Pizzola. Rob,

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Speaker 1: how are you doing today?

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Speaker 2: I'm doing great. I see what you did there and

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Speaker 2: I appreciated it.

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Speaker 1: The wordplay always has to be key. That is paramount

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Speaker 1: in my job description. You should see our Sunday show

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Speaker 1: where literally my only job is It's Freedman and Pat Fitzmurris,

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Speaker 1: and my job is while they talk about a game,

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Speaker 1: to think of the pun I'm gonna use to transition

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Speaker 1: to the next game.

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Speaker 2: I love that I was in that boat before the

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Speaker 2: Segways their key. I mean, they really have a much

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Speaker 2: larger impact than people even realize.

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Speaker 3: I think, look at Tom here, auditioning for a job

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Speaker 3: on the Hammer Network, right, he's not even being coy

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Speaker 3: about it.

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Speaker 1: Well, you know what, Matt, We'll put the job auditions

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Speaker 1: aside right now and instead, let's talk a little bit

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Speaker 1: about the Hammer Network before we get going here, Because Rob,

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Speaker 1: you're a very interesting cross section of sports betting here.

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Speaker 1: You are, of course a professional sports better, but you

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Speaker 1: come from a media background like the rest of us here.

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Speaker 1: How is it that you made that transition and said,

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Speaker 1: wait a second, this is what I want to do,

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Speaker 1: this is where I want to go.

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Speaker 2: It was actually kind of just dumb luck. Really, I've

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Speaker 2: always been a sports better. When I was, you know,

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Speaker 2: producing radio shows and hosting radio shows in my twenties,

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Speaker 2: I was mostly a losing sports better, and I just

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Speaker 2: got to a point where I didn't really enjoy it anymore.

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Speaker 2: So I stopped for a long period of time and

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Speaker 2: I took more of an analytical approach to betting sports

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Speaker 2: and that seemed to work out for me. And eventually, honestly,

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Speaker 2: I was just found through my social following. I had

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Speaker 2: developed a pretty large Twitter profile from my time doing

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Speaker 2: you know, on air gigs in Canada, and people just

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Speaker 2: found the organically that were other sharp betters and wanted

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Speaker 2: to work with me, So it was just a lucky thing.

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Speaker 2: I never considered it even a remote possibility that I'd

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Speaker 2: be making my living betting on sports, and I probably

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Speaker 2: wouldn't have had people not reached out to me directly.

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Speaker 2: So the power of social media, I think it's huge nowadays.

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Speaker 2: But I didn't do anything like I didn't consider this

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Speaker 2: a path that I wanted to go down, but I

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Speaker 2: eventually did. And now I get the the side of

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Speaker 2: me that that also just misses the content aspect, which is,

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Speaker 2: you know, sort of why I started the Hammer as well,

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Speaker 2: because as much as I love betting sports, I probably

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Speaker 2: enjoy talking about sports even more.

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Speaker 1: And so you talk about the Hammer network there it is,

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Speaker 1: of course too is it too late to call it

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Speaker 1: brand new? Now? Relatively new?

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Speaker 2: Think we're just over a month since launch, so I'd

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Speaker 2: say it's still pretty relatively new.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the definition of brand new right there. And

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Speaker 1: what is it that you guys are doing over there?

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Speaker 2: So essentially I've been following the content space for a

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Speaker 2: long time. I think that you get a lot of

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Speaker 2: sharp content, educational type of stuff in the space. You

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Speaker 2: get a lot of on the other side, more recreational

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Speaker 2: content people trying to build up a community. It doesn't

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Speaker 2: really matter to me what you're trying to do in

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Speaker 2: the sports betting content space as long as you are

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Speaker 2: real with your audience in my opinion, but I have

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Speaker 2: yet to find someone that or a company that is

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Speaker 2: kind of encapsulating both of those audiences under one umbrella.

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Speaker 2: So we're trying to build with The Hammer Betting Network

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Speaker 2: was essentially a one stop shop for any single type

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Speaker 2: of sports better whether you're a professional, whether you're someone

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Speaker 2: who just started betting on sports yesterday, whether you're someone

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Speaker 2: who's recreational that's been losing it sports betting for years.

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Speaker 2: What we wanted to build was content that anyone can consume,

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Speaker 2: So that was the original vision behind it. I think

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Speaker 2: we've successfully pulled it off because we do have like

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Speaker 2: a very big cross section of people that are consuming

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Speaker 2: the content right now. But most importantly to me, what

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Speaker 2: also wanted to build was a network where it was

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Speaker 2: fully transparent, So every pick that's given out, whether that's

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Speaker 2: in an article or on a video or a podcast,

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Speaker 2: is logged and tracked via Betstamp, and where we're just

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Speaker 2: real with our audience. We don't people want we don't

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Speaker 2: want people coming on and representing themselves as pros when

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Speaker 2: they're just you know, recreational betters betting ten bucks a game.

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Speaker 2: I don't discriminate discriminate against stuff like that. I just

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Speaker 2: think that someone consuming the content should know who's delivering

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Speaker 2: the content to them. So that's always been something that's

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Speaker 2: important to me, and it was one of the secondary

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Speaker 2: goals in building out the Hammer.

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Speaker 3: Rob I have a question here, you know, and thinking,

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Speaker 3: So I'm I'm the director of content, and so you know,

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Speaker 3: I've just I've been steeped in in content for years

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Speaker 3: in sports media and started more on the fantasy side

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Speaker 3: at Fantasy Labs, and that kind of train transitioned into

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Speaker 3: you know a little more on the sports betting through

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Speaker 3: props first and then sides and totals, and you know,

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Speaker 3: so I've I've had a while to kind of think

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Speaker 3: about stuff like this, and I'm wondering, you know, your

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Speaker 3: experience and having formed this new network, have you noticed

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Speaker 3: particular trends in terms of like, oh, I thought that

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Speaker 3: people would be interested.

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Speaker 2: In more of the.

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Speaker 3: Sharp analysts, you know, like the people who are winning

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Speaker 3: sports betters, have a long track record of success or like, oh,

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Speaker 3: I'm kind of surprised to find that the audience hasn't

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Speaker 3: really cared that much about whether someone is winning or losing,

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Speaker 3: but they gravitate towards the persona or they they like hearing,

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Speaker 3: you know, I don't know, like the flair that accompanies

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Speaker 3: the advice, like what is it that you've discovered through

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Speaker 3: this process?

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Speaker 2: So it's a great question and there's a lot to

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Speaker 2: unpack there. I definitely think that there's obviously a different

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Speaker 2: primary goal for everyone that's consuming content, right, So some

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Speaker 2: people might just want picks, some people might want to

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Speaker 2: get educated's, there's some people that just want entertainment value.

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Speaker 2: So I think sports betting content, like a lot of

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Speaker 2: people will rag on the more recreational type of stuff,

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Speaker 2: whether that's shorter form content, TikTok, Instagram things like that.

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Speaker 2: There's an audience for it. Obviously people are consuming this.

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Speaker 2: I think, especially what sports betters want is a sense

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Speaker 2: of community as well talk. I use this as an

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Speaker 2: example all the time. But there's someone out there that

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Speaker 2: goes by book at Trent has grown a huge following

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Speaker 2: in the space, literally had maybe ten thousand followers last

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Speaker 2: year and is up over one hundred k now on Twitter.

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Speaker 2: Then you add in the TikTok and Instagram as well,

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Speaker 2: He's doing very well for himself. To me, Trent people,

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Speaker 2: you know, a lot of people in the sharp space

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Speaker 2: might put him down and be like, Oh, this guy

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Speaker 2: doesn't know what he's talking about. He doesn't act like

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Speaker 2: he knows what he's talking about. He's very upfront with

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Speaker 2: his audience in the you know that he doesn't expect

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Speaker 2: to win in the long run, that he's making a

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Speaker 2: lot of common mistakes that a recreational better would make.

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Speaker 2: I think he puts on like very good casual recreational

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Speaker 2: content in an entertaining way and in a way where

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Speaker 2: he's building a community, and people want to bet the

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Speaker 2: same things that Trent bets even though they know he's

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Speaker 2: losing better because they kind of want to ride the

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Speaker 2: wave with him. And I think that's like, take a

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Speaker 2: step back and think about that for a second. There

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Speaker 2: are people out there that know this guy is going

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Speaker 2: to lose still want to bet the same stuff as

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Speaker 2: him because he's developed such engagement amongst his community and

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Speaker 2: people that support one another. So that was kind of

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Speaker 2: like a light bulb moment for me of like, how

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Speaker 2: can we build something out like this? What I particularly

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Speaker 2: wanted to experiment with with the Hammer was pairing together

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Speaker 2: a sharp content creator with a more recreational one and

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Speaker 2: seeing if we could do numbers in those types of

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Speaker 2: videos or podcasts, so on and so forth. So far,

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Speaker 2: I would say that that's been an overwhelming success, So

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Speaker 2: not necessarily a learning, because it was like a hypothesis

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Speaker 2: that I had going in that we might be able

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Speaker 2: to draw people from both communities into one. But what

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Speaker 2: I've particularly noticed is it hasn't just been like a

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Speaker 2: drop off after the week one video or the week

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Speaker 2: two video. Those are actually growing audiences over time. So

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Speaker 2: now you're getting people who would have traditionally viewed solely

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Speaker 2: recreational content who are now exposed to a sharper sports

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Speaker 2: better and vice versa. People who consumed only sharp sports

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Speaker 2: betting content that are now you know, exposed to a

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Speaker 2: more entertaining personality something like that. So I think for

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Speaker 2: me that's kind of been the biggest learning, or at

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Speaker 2: least I should say, just like kind of proving the hypothesis,

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Speaker 2: so to speak. But I would like to really bridge

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Speaker 2: content from you know, both ends of the spectrum essentially,

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Speaker 2: and I'm happy when we've been able to do that

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Speaker 2: so far.

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Speaker 1: And one of the things about book it I was

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Speaker 1: talking with Adam Rosenberg from Action a while ago and

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Speaker 1: we discussed their success and what they've been able to do.

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Speaker 1: And the key for them is they set up and

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Speaker 1: you touched on it there with the trend is not

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Speaker 1: coming out there pretending to be sharp. He's not saying

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Speaker 1: I've won one hundred straight bets. He's not trying to

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Speaker 1: scam anybody like that. Book it celebrates the loser, and

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Speaker 1: that's something that no one else in the space really does.

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Speaker 1: And that's why they've been able to foster this community

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Speaker 1: in that area because it's fun. They're all about just

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Speaker 1: riding it. They're all about just we're here to be

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Speaker 1: casual betters and have a good time watching and sweating

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Speaker 1: out this game together and maybe we'll hit on some

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Speaker 1: of these but we're here for the ride, not the destination.

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Speaker 2: Exactly what we know from just industry studies right that

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Speaker 2: like ninety eight to ninety nine percent of betters are

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Speaker 2: going to lose in the long run at sports betting.

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Speaker 2: I don't know why people try to hide from that.

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Speaker 2: I get it. There's like an ego associated with sports

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Speaker 2: betting where you think that you know sports, you think

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Speaker 2: that you should be able to win at betting. Some

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Speaker 2: people are just embarrassed. This is their day job. They're

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Speaker 2: putting out content. They're embarrassed that they can't win at

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Speaker 2: sports betting. It's very difficult to do, and honestly, I

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Speaker 2: think if people were just more real about it, that

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Speaker 2: would be like, it's fine, It's totally fine. I don't think.

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Speaker 2: I think you gain more credibility in the space if

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Speaker 2: you're real about your experiences, then the credibility you'd lose

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Speaker 2: because of being a losing sports better most people lose.

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Speaker 2: That's the reality of the situation. I've had losing NFL seasons.

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Speaker 2: I bet NFL professionally. I've had losing NHL seasons. I

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Speaker 2: bet NHL professionally. It's fine. I'm comfortable saying that it's

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Speaker 2: hard to win in the long run. So I think

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Speaker 2: what resonates with Tran's audience is that he's real. Frankly,

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Speaker 2: and I think what a lot of I mean, a

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Speaker 2: lot of people are able to get away with misrepresenting

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Speaker 2: themselves because the consumer maybe is not able to pick

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Speaker 2: up on certain verbiage or things that they might say

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Speaker 2: that would actually expose themselves that other sharp betters are

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Speaker 2: able to pick up on. But I just think that

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Speaker 2: there's room in this space nowadays for people to produce

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Speaker 2: content and say, I'm not a winning better, but you

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Speaker 2: know what, if you want to tail me, here's what

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Speaker 2: I like and here's my process, here's how I arrived

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Speaker 2: at this pick. And I think people find that just

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Speaker 2: as entertaining and engaging as the pick itself. So to

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Speaker 2: each their own. I just think that the space needs

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Speaker 2: to be cleaned up in the sense that people just

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Speaker 2: need to be more honest with their their audiences.

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Speaker 1: And you touch on that honesty being such an important

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Speaker 1: part of it because for some content groups, like especially

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Speaker 1: any of us here on this show right now, no

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Speaker 1: one's trying to deceive anybody, Like you said, it's very

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Speaker 1: clear when Matt gives out a pick, he's going, this

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Speaker 1: is my process, this is what I'm looking at. It's

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Speaker 1: especially if you're saying I got this at two and

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Speaker 1: a half and now the line's moved all the way

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Speaker 1: to five guaranteed loser. But other than that, other that,

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Speaker 1: and we're honest about that. But the problem in the space,

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Speaker 1: especially when it comes to the casual betters, because you

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Speaker 1: talk about the people that maybe are just trying to

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Speaker 1: get into it, the people who hopefully are watching these

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Speaker 1: videos when they go on YouTube and they search, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I want to find some bets for the week. Let

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Speaker 1: me search week six NFL bets. These are the videos

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Speaker 1: that are coming up. But then the other people that

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Speaker 1: are coming up and the people that they're going to

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Speaker 1: see on social media. You know, it's that dark side,

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Speaker 1: that seedier side of it, where you have those tout

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Speaker 1: services who are out there saying, oh, I've won one

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Speaker 1: hundred straight bets, I'm a seventy eight percent overall sports

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Speaker 1: better and anyone who's in the space immediately can know, okay, well,

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Speaker 1: you're lying to me right now. But a lot of

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Speaker 1: these casual guys will get absolutely deceived by that and

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Speaker 1: then end up paying for picks when it's already hard

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Speaker 1: enough to go and win on your own. If you're

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Speaker 1: just tailing a guy's email list that he blasts out

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Speaker 1: and for all you know, he's sending the exact opposite

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Speaker 1: side to half of his list and getting you're just

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Speaker 1: getting a coin flip, it could be a problem and

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Speaker 1: then it turns off people from the space, and then

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden it is very much just a

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Speaker 1: negative part of the community and something that guys like

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Speaker 1: us have to try and do our best to just

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Speaker 1: be able to beat them to the punch and be

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Speaker 1: the guys to get that outreach out to these casual

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Speaker 1: fans before.

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Speaker 2: Right, And I honestly don't know what the solution to

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Speaker 2: that is other than I just don't want to be

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Speaker 2: part of that problem. So like I approach sports and

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Speaker 2: like life in a more type of way, I'm sure

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Speaker 2: I can make way more money than I do right

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Speaker 2: now if I was to market myself. And I've built

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Speaker 2: up a huge following of people who think or like

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Speaker 2: they know that I make a living on sports, but

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Speaker 2: they think I'm you know, just winning and raking in dough.

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Speaker 2: That's not the way it works. But I could market

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Speaker 2: that in a way where I can make a ton

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Speaker 2: of money. I choose not to because I think that

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Speaker 2: there's like a moral problem with that. I'm not saying

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Speaker 2: that you can't go about that in any way, but

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Speaker 2: personally I see the same things as you do. Right,

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Speaker 2: you google sports betting terms. You're not going to get

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Speaker 2: the you know, the best piece of content. You're gonna

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Speaker 2: get the one that has invested the most into SEO,

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Speaker 2: and that's going to rank on the first page of Google.

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Speaker 2: And a lot of times that's just gonna be stuff

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Speaker 2: that is totally misleading. But you know, there's companies that

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Speaker 2: are investing tons of money into search engine optimization and

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Speaker 2: they're able to rank for this stuff. You go on

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Speaker 2: to Twitter or TikTok or Instagram or wherever you consume

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Speaker 2: your sports betting content, and you're going to follow people

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Speaker 2: that have massive following that might have no idea what

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Speaker 2: they're talking about, but they've somehow been able to build

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Speaker 2: a following. You know, it's it's not an easy it's

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Speaker 2: not an easy, you know, place to navigate. And as

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Speaker 2: you know, twenty year old myself, I pay for picks.

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Speaker 2: I followed people on social media who's pick like. I

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Speaker 2: didn't know about short term trends. I believed in in

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Speaker 2: better is being hot and better is being cold, and

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Speaker 2: basically any sort of trope that you could fall into.

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Speaker 2: Uh I sort of did that. So I've learned through experience. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 2: I just don't know of a solution where you know,

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Speaker 2: collectively the landscape is just going to change overnight. It's not.

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Speaker 2: This is what's successful in the space. It's a supply

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Speaker 2: and demand issue, right There's a there's demand for picks,

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Speaker 2: so there's always going to be people supplying those picks

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Speaker 2: behind a paywall. There's demand for all sorts of stuff

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Speaker 2: in this space, so it's it's really challenging to navigate.

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Speaker 2: I just do what I can to put out as

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Speaker 2: much quality educational material as possible, and any brands that

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Speaker 2: I represent, I try to do it in a way

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Speaker 2: where I'm very explicit about how we make money and

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Speaker 2: you know, what I feel is important for the brand

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Speaker 2: as a whole. So that's sort of the way that

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Speaker 2: I approach it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's kind of the only solution, you know. It's

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Speaker 1: like with free speech, the only counter to bad speech

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Speaker 1: is good speech, and we just have to be putting

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Speaker 1: out as much good content and good things for better

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Speaker 1: is to tip pick up that we can and as

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Speaker 1: friend of the show Captain Jack always says, do no harm.

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Speaker 1: That's got to be our goal at the end of

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Speaker 1: the day is to be giving out the best advice

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Speaker 1: that we can and hopefully bettering everybody else in the process. Guys,

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Speaker 1: real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper.

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Speaker 1: Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions

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Speaker 1: of players. You probably already have a fantasy league on there.

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Speaker 1: My friends and I changed over this year and I

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Speaker 1: absolutely love it. It's a game changing product unlike anything

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Speaker 1: else in the industry, and now you can win on

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Speaker 1: Sleeper by playing their new over undergame. It's super simple. First,

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Speaker 1: in any sport, choose two or more players that you

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Speaker 1: like and pick the over under for example rushing yards

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Speaker 1: in a football game or number of points in a

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Speaker 1: basketball game. Then choose the amount of money you want

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Speaker 1: to enter into the contest. If you pick correctly, you

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Speaker 1: can win anywhere from two times so over twenty times

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Speaker 1: the money you put in. The main reason I'm excited

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Speaker 1: about over under on Sleeper is that it's the only

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Speaker 1: app where I can join my friends contests and play together.

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Speaker 1: It's got a built in group chat where I can

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Speaker 1: see and copy my group's picks with the tap of

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Speaker 1: a button. Along with over under integrated into the fantasy

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Speaker 1: experience itself, it's insanely fun to ride it out together.

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Speaker 1: So stop what you're doing and download Sleeper now to

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00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:38,200
Speaker 1: play their new over undergame. Have fun with your friends

347
00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,960
Speaker 1: and make some money. Use the promo code Betting Pros

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00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 1: when you sign up for a Sleeper account today, and

349
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:46,720
Speaker 1: Sleeper will automatically credit your account one hundred dollars to

350
00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:49,680
Speaker 1: get you started. In terms of conditions apply, see Sleeper

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Speaker 1: dot com for details. I was very, very confident in

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Speaker 1: my theory that no two good things can happen in

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Speaker 1: a row to the New York Jets. As a Jets fan,

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Speaker 1: it does not happen to often, and instead, somehow the

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Speaker 1: Jets now sit at three and two. And therefore, because

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Speaker 1: I am the one who made the rundown, we are

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Speaker 1: talking about the New York Jets as our first team

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Speaker 1: on the rankings. Guys, I'm not saying super Bowl. All

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Speaker 1: I'm saying is maybe, instead of like a dumpster fire,

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Speaker 1: we're recycling bin now. And that is massive positive direction

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Speaker 1: trending that I have not seen from this team in

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Speaker 1: a while. I know that the quarterbacks that they've beaten

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Speaker 1: now are Mitch Trubisky, Slash Kenny Pickett, Jacoby Brissett, and

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Speaker 1: Skyler Thompson. But I don't care wins are wins. What

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Speaker 1: do you guys think of this team right now? Are

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Speaker 1: they at least looking like potentially a competent franchise.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they're definitely on the rise. I don't know

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Speaker 2: how much that says about the franchise as a whole,

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Speaker 2: considering where they were really really tough to gauge because

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Speaker 2: we have this very large sample of Zach Wilson last year,

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Speaker 2: which was horrible, dreadful so far not so bad that

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Speaker 2: this includes injuries on the offensive line. Dwayne Brown did

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Speaker 2: come back off the ir this week, but aside from that,

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Speaker 2: they've been basically every tackle that they've had has been

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Speaker 2: hurt at one point or another. So seeing them with

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Speaker 2: this record, considering the offensive line injuries regardless of the schedule,

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Speaker 2: I think it's definitely a team that's on the uphill.

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Speaker 2: It's more of a question now of where do they

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Speaker 2: actually fall into the market here because they play a

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Speaker 2: Green Bay team now that's maybe in the eyes of

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Speaker 2: some not a legit contender anymore after losing to the Giants.

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Speaker 2: So I think this week is really a true test

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Speaker 2: for the Jets in terms of actually going up against

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Speaker 2: a competent quarterback. Now, the defense in terms of both

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Speaker 2: success rate and EPA per play this year has been

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Speaker 2: below average for the Jets when you account for the

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Speaker 2: the schedule that they've faced and a judge adjusting for

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Speaker 2: the quality of opponents. So I don't know what to

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Speaker 2: make of them just yet. I don't just dismiss a

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Speaker 2: team because of who they've played so far. I think

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Speaker 2: you can still learn stuff from those games, but ultimately

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Speaker 2: it's a very wide range of what it can be, right,

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Speaker 2: because Zach Wilson is just we don't know. We still

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Speaker 2: have no idea yet. And I think this is really

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Speaker 2: a test for them this week against the Packers.

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Speaker 1: I know for a fact that this is the week

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Speaker 1: that I'm going to go ahead and say, oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: they can cover a touchdown against the Packers, and then

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Speaker 1: they're going to go out and get blown out. They're

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Speaker 1: making me believe and that is the most dangerous time.

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Speaker 1: But Matt, what do you think both about the Jets

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Speaker 1: and the Packers now? Because, like you said, Rob, this

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Speaker 1: team just went out and now lost to the Giants

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Speaker 1: after the overtime Bailey's appy game.

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Speaker 3: It's time to worry about the Packers, right, Yeah, I man,

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Speaker 3: I do want Rob's thoughts on this because we do

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Speaker 3: have two really interesting teams. I've from the beginning of

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Speaker 3: the preseason or offseason, I've moved up in my power

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Speaker 3: ratings the Jets a point from where I had them.

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Speaker 3: Their defense, as Rob said, it's still below average when

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Speaker 3: you adjust for schedule, but even even below average, it's

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Speaker 3: still much better than they were last year. So I

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Speaker 3: do think we've seen significant progression from that team. With

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Speaker 3: the Packers, I kind of gave a lot of their

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Speaker 3: early season struggles a pass because they didn't have their

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Speaker 3: full offensive line there, they were missing their two tackles

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Speaker 3: to start the year. They didn't have the number one

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Speaker 3: wide receiver, you know, Jayra Alexander was working his way

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Speaker 3: back from an injury. So like there were things that

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Speaker 3: you could kind of contextualize around this team to say, Okay,

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Speaker 3: they're not at full capacity here, but when they get

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Speaker 3: their players back within the new offensive system they're going

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Speaker 3: to have, they're going to start to progress. And we

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Speaker 3: haven't seen that. And this for me is like the

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Speaker 3: litmus test because in the look Ahead market, I believe

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Speaker 3: this number was nine nine and a half and it

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Speaker 3: opened at seven and a half and then now it's

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Speaker 3: at seven. So if you are Green Bay backer and

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Speaker 3: I kind of thought of myself in that vein like

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Speaker 3: I was relatively high on this team entering the season,

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Speaker 3: this is a really bad sign. And so it's signaling

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Speaker 3: to me I need to move them more in my

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Speaker 3: power ratings than I have. Uh And this number of seven,

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Speaker 3: I am still inclined to take it with the Packers

435
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,959
Speaker 3: because I do think that the Jets. I think, you know,

436
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 3: they've probably been a little bit inflated because of their

437
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 3: performances recently. And you know, I don't want to buy

438
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:36,199
Speaker 3: too much into you know, like longer term trends. But

439
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:40,359
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers at home, he's just a cover machine. Aaron

440
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:44,199
Speaker 3: Rodgers is a favorite historically, is a cover machine. And

441
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,239
Speaker 3: he's going against the defense that I still think is

442
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 3: you know, not up to not up to average, and

443
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 3: the defense is going against an offense that still has,

444
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,360
Speaker 3: you know, as as Rob mentioned, a quarterback with a

445
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:03,439
Speaker 3: decent sample size of vast underperformance. So even though we

446
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 3: have seen the market from last week to this week

447
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 3: move drastically against the Packers, I'm still on them.

448
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:11,479
Speaker 1: In this spot.

449
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 3: But it's it's tentative. I say I'm on them, knowing

450
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,639
Speaker 3: that I still need to adjust them down in my

451
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 3: power ratings.

452
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 1: I don't think that I can lay seven points with

453
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 1: the Packers right now against anyone, even the Jets. I

454
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 1: think that's my biggest problem here. But what's befuddling me

455
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 1: and Rob I want to get your thoughts on the

456
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 1: Packers as well, But what's befuddling me with his Jets

457
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,880
Speaker 1: team is how this defense is still performing the way

458
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,719
Speaker 1: it is. Because you look at the parts. Corners pretty good.

459
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 1: DJ Reed apparently was a PFF Top twenty five corner

460
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,879
Speaker 1: this week. Sauce Gardner does not look like a rookie.

461
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,119
Speaker 1: I'm loving that pick. I'm loving what he's going to

462
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 1: bring to this team for the future, but he's already

463
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 1: looking like the part. The defensive line a whole lot

464
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:57,639
Speaker 1: of depth depth. Quinn Williams is a fantastic, fantastic rusher

465
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 1: up the middle, and they have starter qual quality about

466
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: seven guys deep on that D line. The linebackers are

467
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 1: Kwan Alexander and CJ. Mosley. Yeah, that's your twenty nineteen

468
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 1: All Star team. But they're still good guys, and yet

469
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 1: the stats aren't backing it up. This defense isn't performing

470
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:15,159
Speaker 1: to the level that I feel like they should be

471
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 1: with all of the talent that they really do have here,

472
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 1: and I don't understand it. Yeah.

473
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 2: What's even more interesting I think about looking at the

474
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 2: Jets defense is that they've been a pretty low blitz

475
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 2: team this year, blitzing on just over fifteen percent of

476
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 2: opposing dropbacks, but they've generated the third highest pressure in

477
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 2: the entire league at twenty nine percent. Now, again, some

478
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 2: of that might be quality of competition. Again, I just

479
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 2: want to reiterate, like the Jets, to me, there's such

480
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 2: a wide gap on what they could be. I went

481
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 2: into the year having them about five points worse than

482
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 2: a team than an average team on neutral. I have

483
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 2: them about three and a half points worse on neutral

484
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 2: right now. But that could be so many different things.

485
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,919
Speaker 2: With the Packers, we just finished five weeks in the NFL,

486
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 2: right and this is sort of like the time where

487
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,360
Speaker 2: you're getting off your priors of teams going into the year.

488
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 2: And if I was just looking at the Packers without

489
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 2: knowing anything about this team from previous seasons, who the

490
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 2: quarterback is, they would look like a very average team

491
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 2: to me.

492
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 1: Right now.

493
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 2: They have two very exploitable weaknesses, and I think until

494
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 2: they show that they can fix that, I don't know

495
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 2: that I can consider them much more than just like

496
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 2: a slightly above average team. And I know it sounds

497
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 2: insane to say it, but they cannot stop the run.

498
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 2: Teams are just running the ball down their throat. Back

499
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 2: to back weeks, Patriots, Giants just pushing that D line around.

500
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: They cannot stop it. I think we'll see the Jets

501
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 2: try to do the exact same thing thing this week. Offensively,

502
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 2: they can't stretch the field, aside from like a Christian

503
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 2: Watson dropped deep ball a few weeks ago I think

504
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 2: was the first play of the game, maybe against the Bucks.

505
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 2: Trying to remember who it was, but yeah, they really

506
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 2: are not throwing downfield anymore. It's just everything underneath. Opponents

507
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 2: are giving them that quick screen pass, whether it's the

508
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 2: wide receiver, they're dumping it off the running backs. But

509
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,120
Speaker 2: the average depth of target for Aaron Rodgers is way

510
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 2: lower than it was historically in his career. And they

511
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 2: got to figure out how to solve at least one

512
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,239
Speaker 2: of these two problems. They've got to be able to

513
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 2: stretch the field, or they got to be able to

514
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,239
Speaker 2: stop the run on defense until they figure out how

515
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 2: to do that, it's just very hard to lay these

516
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,159
Speaker 2: big numbers with them. And just to add, it's not

517
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 2: even the Packers really, it's most teams in the NFL

518
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 2: where I just don't want to lay a big number

519
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 2: with them because there's very few teams that have shown

520
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 2: the ability to separate and continue holding that lead throughout

521
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 2: the game outside of maybe the Bills. So far this year,

522
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 2: can think of so many teams that look like they

523
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 2: have had games completely under control and then all of

524
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 2: a sudden you're scratching your head and you're like, how

525
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 2: did we get here? And this seems to be the

526
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 2: new NFL. Maybe I'm just overreacting to small sample size,

527
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 2: but it's definitely been a trend this year of teams

528
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:52,920
Speaker 2: just not being able to close games as well.

529
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 1: The NFL is perfected parody to the point where every

530
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 1: team is now bad.

531
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, into Rob's to fall up on what Rob said,

532
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 3: I too have the Jets at exactly three and a

533
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 3: half below average, So we're we're in lockstep there.

534
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 1: And you know, for the Packers, Rob, maybe to solve

535
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 1: this problem with stretching the field, maybe they could make

536
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 1: some phone calls. Maybe DeVante Adams is available from the Raiders,

537
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:18,959
Speaker 1: they could try and pick a guy like him up

538
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 1: that that would probably be useful for them. I don't know.

539
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 2: Maybe. I mean, as long as he's not hitting people

540
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: on the way out of the field and getting himself suspended.

541
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 1: Full credit to that camera guy, they'll go into the hospital.

542
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 1: Get your bag man, respect it.

543
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right.

544
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 1: The next team that we got to talk about here,

545
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: you know what, I'm gonna push them down the list

546
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: because I want to talk about a team real quick,

547
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 1: because you mentioned so many teams have been able to

548
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: get out to these quick leads, get out to these

549
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 1: big leads, and then are managing to watch them evaporate

550
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 1: and say how did we get here? And I think

551
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: no one's done that more than the five to zhero Eagles.

552
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,199
Speaker 1: They've been able to pull out all of these wins

553
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 1: so far, but they've let a lot of teams back

554
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 1: into a lot of games so far this season. And

555
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 1: it's the question that we've been asking since the dawn

556
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 1: of time? Are the Birds real? What do you think

557
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 1: about this team so far? At five and our.

558
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 2: Robert, I think they're very real. I think their neck

559
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:15,680
Speaker 2: and neck with the Bucks in terms of favorites in

560
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 2: the NFC right now, I actually have the Eagles slightly

561
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 2: ahead of the Bucks. A lot of people would give

562
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 2: me criticism for that or flack for that. Last week's

563
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 2: game against the Cardinals just from like a pure success

564
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 2: rate standpoint yards per play was much, you know, it's

565
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,679
Speaker 2: pretty even considering the Eagles went up early. I should

566
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 2: point out though, and I think a lot of people

567
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 2: are not realizing that in that game they were already

568
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 2: missing their left tackle Jordan Malatta Jason kelce Landon Dickerson

569
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 2: both got hurt early on in that game. So basically

570
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 2: the entire left side of their offensive line was out

571
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 2: for you know, vast majority of that game, and that

572
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 2: has an impact. Now. It'll be interesting to see who's

573
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 2: playing against the Dallas Cowboys this week, But overall, the

574
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 2: Eagles to me are just a stack team. Like if

575
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,679
Speaker 2: you just look at their pure positional groups, offensive line

576
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 2: top five arguably number one, defensive line, top five secondary,

577
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 2: especially when you look at the starting two corners that

578
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 2: they have there, Avonte Maddox when he's healthy as a

579
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:17,880
Speaker 2: nickel corner deep you know, wide receiving corps skill position amazing.

580
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 2: It's really Jalen Hurts that is the question mark. But

581
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 2: as long as Jalen Hurts is well protected and can

582
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 2: toss it up to Devonte Smith and AJ Brown and

583
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 2: Dallas Goddard whenever they're one on one in their matchups,

584
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 2: I see a very very high floor for the Philadelphia Eagles.

585
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,640
Speaker 2: So will they eventually have a stinker game where they lose.

586
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 2: Probably no teams are immune to that, but just on

587
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 2: paper and even production wise this season, I don't see

588
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 2: the you know, I don't see the negative case or

589
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 2: why anyone would be bearish about this team going forwards

590
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 2: unless people think that the league is just going to

591
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 2: catch up to what they're doing on offense, which I

592
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 2: don't think that they will. So very high on the

593
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 2: Eagles and obviously big statement game for them this week

594
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:00,120
Speaker 2: against the Cowboys.

595
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: What do you think is gonna happen against your Cowboys

596
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 1: here in matt cows are gonna lose?

597
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, just obviously because I you know,

598
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 3: I haven't bet on them yet, but if I really

599
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 3: want to lock in the loss for the Cowboys, I

600
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 3: would bet on the Cowboys. The The idea of the

601
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 3: Eagles as one of the best teams in the league's

602
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 3: in the league. I'm I'm right there with Rob and

603
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 3: actually the comparison of Philadelphia to Tampa Bay, I have

604
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 3: the Eagles as four points better than average team, and

605
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 3: I have the Buccaneers as three point seventy five points

606
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 3: better than average. So I'm right there with him and

607
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 3: having the Eagles just a little bit above the Buccaneers.

608
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 3: And I don't think, you know, looking ahead to this game,

609
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 3: I don't think we're going to see Dak Prescott play.

610
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 3: He he didn't practice at all last week. They said

611
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 3: he would need to get, you know, a full week

612
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 3: of practice. You know, he doesn't have the ability to

613
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 3: grip yet, So I don't think he's going to play.

614
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 3: And if that's the case, I think this line of

615
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 3: five and a half that we see here, and it

616
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 3: was five and a half in the look ahead market.

617
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 3: It opened at five and now it's actually sorry, it

618
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 3: opened at five and a half and now it's moved

619
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 3: down to five. And that movement kind of surprises me

620
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 3: because I don't think it's warranted. I don't think this

621
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 3: line should be moving towards the Cowboys. If anything, I

622
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 3: think it should be moving towards the Eagles.

623
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 2: I would agree with you on that one. I'm a

624
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 2: Cowboys fan as well, so I'll try to make this

625
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 2: as unbiased as possible. Listen, they have not played a

626
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 2: game this year the Cowboys where the final score has

627
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 2: been in the forties, So they're playing very, very low

628
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 2: scoring games. Five games now all thirties or less. Essentially,

629
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 2: Cooper Rush, I'm very happy what he's been able to

630
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 2: accomplish as a backup. However, this is a game where

631
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 2: he's now playing up, you know, step up in class

632
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 2: in terms of opponent. And Dallas's defense has won them

633
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 2: a lot of these games, and their pass rush specifically

634
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 2: has won them a lot of these games. Games Now

635
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 2: you are going strength against strength because the Eagles have

636
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 2: such a great offensive line, presuming that their entire offensive

637
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 2: line is going to play this week, which I think

638
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 2: is likely to happen. You have Micah Parsons, who may

639
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 2: not be one hundred percent going into this week as well,

640
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 2: who got dinged up in the fourth quarter there. So

641
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 2: this is now a game where Cooper Rush has to

642
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 2: do something. It's not go in there, manage the game,

643
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 2: don't make mistakes, it's make some plays. And I don't

644
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 2: know that I've watched every Cowboys game. Again, I don't

645
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 2: want to slander the guy. He has done a great

646
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 2: job as a backup, But is he ready to compete

647
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 2: in this type of game and go throw for throw

648
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 2: with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense. I don't think so.

649
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 2: So I think the market is now a little bit

650
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 2: too high on Dallas based off what they've accomplished, largely

651
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 2: against teams that have horrible offensive lines. Dallas has just

652
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 2: been in the backfield on every play against the teams

653
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 2: they've played in recent weeks. I think this game is

654
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 2: going to go very differently. I think the Eagles are

655
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 2: I have them even power ready even higher here. I

656
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 2: have him five points better than an average team on

657
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 2: a neutral so this would be a Philadelphia or nothing game.

658
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 2: I think this is the one where Dallas comes back

659
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 2: down to Earth.

660
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 1: Guys. The next team that we want to talk about here,

661
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 1: Matt Rule is going to make about eight hundred and

662
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 1: thirty five thousand dollars a month for the next forty

663
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 1: eight months or so. Not a bad heist for the

664
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: man who has managed to be what one in twenty

665
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 1: in games where your opponents scores seventeen or more points.

666
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 1: That's just downright incredible. But where do the Panthers go

667
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 1: from here? Obviously Steve Wilk's not going to be the

668
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 1: long term answer. They should probably give Ben mc into

669
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 1: a shot. Someone needs to just for the memes. But

670
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 1: what are we going to do about this team? The

671
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: defense has been good this season, the offense is obviously,

672
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: if we were to compare them to a college quarterback,

673
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 1: they'd be general booty. But where's this team going to go?

674
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: Are they going to be trading away key pieces here?

675
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 1: We already saw the bills. We're asking about Christian McCaffrey,

676
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 1: which would be unfair. Dj Moore another guy who is

677
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 1: hopefully being shown the door. Is this team gonna start

678
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 1: selling players off? Or do you think there's gonna be

679
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: a little bit of that new coach bump for the

680
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 1: week that now that Matt Rowle has at least gone.

681
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 2: Very difficult to say. Obviously, in the short term, I

682
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 2: think they're still playing to win new head coach, new

683
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 2: quarterback this week. I mean, obviously PJ. Walker's played before,

684
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 2: but Baker Mayfield essentially going to be out a few

685
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 2: weeks as well. I think it's it's too early to

686
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 2: say that the season is over, and at least that's

687
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 2: the way that NFL teams will approach it. What should

688
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 2: they do. I mean, they've they've had a lot of

689
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 2: high draft picks in recent years. Essentially probably build around

690
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 2: those J C. Horn who actually got injured last week, obviously,

691
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 2: Derek Brown, gross Mattos on the offense, on the defensive line,

692
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 2: excuse me as well. So I still think they have

693
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 2: like a young core that they can build around. But this,

694
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 2: let's be real here, like this is not going to

695
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,719
Speaker 2: be their season. They probably lose a few more games

696
00:33:57,800 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 2: and then the writings on the wall and try to

697
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 2: at whatever you can for any piece that's valuable at

698
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 2: this point and enter the rebuild and try to get that,

699
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 2: you know, as high draft pick as possible. So that's

700
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 2: what Carolina is. Matt Rules set this franchise back quite

701
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 2: a bit, not only him, though you mentioned Ben mcaduo.

702
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 2: Like the play calling on offense is you know, if

703
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 2: you were to play a game where you could, you know,

704
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 2: guess runner pass, and every single time you guess correctly

705
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 2: in the first quarter you had to take a shot,

706
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:26,840
Speaker 2: you'd be drunk, like two minutes into the game, because

707
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:29,359
Speaker 2: everybody knows what the Panthers are going to do at

708
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 2: all times on offense. It's it's horrible to watch so

709
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 2: bad football team. Some pieces to build around going forwards,

710
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 2: but you're seeing it now this week, right there's still

711
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 2: a double digit underdog against the Rams who cannot even

712
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 2: they can't score. The Rams cannot actually move the football

713
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,399
Speaker 2: right now, and that's how much the market has come

714
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 2: down on Carolina. So tough, tough spot to be in.

715
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 2: But I think this is a full rebuild mode.

716
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 1: The writing was on the wall for this team when

717
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 1: they said we need offensive help this offseason, and solution

718
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 1: was tit or Ben mcindo. There was no one who

719
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 1: put any faith in this team from that point. I

720
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 1: don't know what role was thinking, Matt, do we need

721
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 1: to spend any more time on the Panthers or are

722
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 1: you good here?

723
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 3: I think we should dedicate the rest of the podcast

724
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,320
Speaker 3: to the Panthers.

725
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 2: I can't believe.

726
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 3: I need to look this up just to make sure

727
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 3: I'm saying something that is accurate, But the Panthers have

728
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 3: actually scored more points this year than the Rams, right,

729
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:32,479
Speaker 3: like that actually has happened, And one I just don't

730
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 3: understand how that's happened. And then two, given that that

731
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 3: has happened, it's not that I can't understand why the

732
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 3: Rams are favored or anything like that, but double digits

733
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 3: that is a lot for a team that has massively

734
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:48,919
Speaker 3: underwhelmed to date.

735
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 2: That said, I.

736
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 3: Mean, I don't know if I would actually want to

737
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 3: be the sicko who bets on Carolina in this spot.

738
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:58,920
Speaker 3: Give me a few days and I probably will be

739
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 3: that sicko, But I don't know if I'm ready to

740
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:02,320
Speaker 3: do it on a Tuesday.

741
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 1: This is absolutely a Matt Friedman trademark game right here.

742
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 1: You're gonna do it. We both know that. On Thursday show,

743
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 1: you're gonna come on and say, one of my favorite

744
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,240
Speaker 1: games this week is Carolina ten and a half.

745
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, it's gonna happen.

746
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's tough. I mean, the Rams have eighty points

747
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 2: in five games and they're spotting you know, ten and

748
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 2: a half this week. How I mean, I don't know

749
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 2: how you bet the Rams. It's just a question. I'm

750
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,319
Speaker 2: in the same boat as you, Matt, Like, can I

751
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 2: lay off of Carolina?

752
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's kind of it's the same reason.

753
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 1: It's the same reason I haven't wanted to bet the

754
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: Packers the last couple of weeks. Yeah, the teams that

755
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,439
Speaker 1: they're playing aren't any good, but if you're gonna lay

756
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:42,959
Speaker 1: double digits, you have to score double digits, and they're

757
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:44,239
Speaker 1: having trouble doing that.

758
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 3: I mean, think about this, Okay, as bad as the

759
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 3: Rams have been, this line in the in the off

760
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 3: season was seven and a half or eight. It was

761
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 3: nine and a half in the look ahead market, and

762
00:36:58,960 --> 00:36:59,720
Speaker 3: now it's eleven.

763
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 1: How has that?

764
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 3: Like, as bad as the Rams have been, how have

765
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:08,760
Speaker 3: the Panthers managed to be worse relative to expectations?

766
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 2: Like?

767
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 3: I don't think that that has actually happened. Like, I

768
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:16,320
Speaker 3: think the Rams have massively underperformed their expectations much more

769
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 3: than the Panthers have.

770
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 2: I think potentially you could give the Rams a little

771
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 2: bit of credit because the last two weeks where they've

772
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 2: looked horrible was Dallas and San fran both teams that

773
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 2: have a huge mismatch against their O line. Now Carolina's

774
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:34,800
Speaker 2: D line is fine, but it's just not going to

775
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:36,839
Speaker 2: generate the same type of pressure that the forty nine

776
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 2: Ers and Cowboys do. So potentially you might get that

777
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 2: Stafford game like he had against Atlanta earlier this year.

778
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 2: Atlanta's on another extreme though. Atlanta's just like don't generate pressure.

779
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 2: Carolina's somewhere in the middle. So I think there's like

780
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 2: some upside still with the Rams offense, and there's a

781
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:55,760
Speaker 2: little bit of recency bias overall just because of horrible

782
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,320
Speaker 2: matchups for them. But it's still a ton of points.

783
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 2: And again, like they're not immune to the back door

784
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 2: cover either. They had that game against Atlanta where it

785
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 2: was twenty eight to three, and you know, the Falcons

786
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 2: are trying to redeem themselves from the twenty eight to

787
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 2: three Super Bowl against New England and make the comeback there.

788
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 2: They ultimately fell short. But I don't know, it's just

789
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 2: so challenging to lay points in the NFL nowadays with

790
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 2: the amount of endgame variants that is here.

791
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 1: And we don't.

792
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 2: Really know that that walk Like historically speaking, Walkers is

793
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:30,359
Speaker 2: downgrade from Mayfield, but Mayfield is so bad this year.

794
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 2: You know, he's getting past his knocked down left and

795
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:34,280
Speaker 2: right at the line of scrimmage. They couldn't do anything.

796
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 2: Who knows what walker is going to be. I mean,

797
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 2: it's it's very difficult to say that he's going to

798
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 2: be a severe downgrade as the market is suggesting a

799
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 2: couple point downgrade from the look aheadline. So tough one.

800
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:49,839
Speaker 2: But I could never lay this price with La just never.

801
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 2: It's not in my repertoire whatsoever.

802
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, and a miss Walker does have that athleticism, like

803
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 3: he has the running ability that Baker Mayfield thinks he

804
00:38:58,360 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 3: has but definitely does not have.

805
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 1: Right Yep, guys, football season is here and if you

806
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:05,760
Speaker 1: want to get in on the action, we recommend heading

807
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,759
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809
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811
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:21,879
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815
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 1: the action today, guys, enjoy the football season and let's

816
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 1: cash some tickets together. Now back to the show. Now,

817
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:40,240
Speaker 1: how about another team here that obviously was impressing people

818
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 1: to start the season, and now two weeks later have

819
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 1: cooled off significantly. The Jaguars I kind of want to

820
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 1: throw out the game against the Eagles piece, For one,

821
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 1: you were playing against the Eagles, and two it was

822
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 1: a monsoon, So Trevor Lawrence having four fumbles not the

823
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 1: biggest concern to me in that environment. And then this

824
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 1: Houston game. Now, on the one hand, I'm sitting here going, well,

825
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:05,759
Speaker 1: it's not great when you lose to the Texans. But

826
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: on the other hand, they haven't beaten the Texans in

827
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 1: four years. And it's one of those things kind of

828
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 1: like you look at the Rams and the Rams and

829
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 1: the Niners, or the Cardinals and the Niners, where one

830
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:19,880
Speaker 1: team just is so familiar with the other and just

831
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 1: has their number no matter what both teams look like

832
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 1: in a particular year. Do you think Jacksonville is going

833
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 1: to get back to their winning ways? Not again, not

834
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 1: necessarily talking about that. It's the South, They could very

835
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 1: well push for the playoffs. Is this team on the

836
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 1: rise or was it a mirage?

837
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 2: I personally don't know yet. So I was not as

838
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 2: high on Jacksonville as everyone going into the year. I

839
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:45,040
Speaker 2: thought they'd obviously be better it's hard to be worse than

840
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 2: a season ago, but a lot of people you know,

841
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 2: touting them to be, you know, a winning team, and

842
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 2: so on and so forth. But my adjustment on the

843
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 2: Colts has been huge as well over the course of

844
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 2: the year. So I think it's very possible Jacksonville wins

845
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 2: this game, but it doesn't really tell us a whole

846
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 2: lot about them going forwards, and they still might be

847
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 2: a bad team just because the Colts are so bad.

848
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 2: I think that this is going to be the game

849
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:09,959
Speaker 2: in market where you see a lot of action back

850
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 2: and forth so far from what I've seen at least

851
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 2: an order flow on this game. There are people who

852
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 2: like the Colts. There are people who like the Jags.

853
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:21,280
Speaker 2: If this were earlier in the year, I would absolutely

854
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:23,960
Speaker 2: one percent have bet the Colts at this price. But

855
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 2: now I've strongly leaned towards the Jags. They've at least

856
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 2: shown us something like Indianapolis. I get that they're two

857
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 2: to two to one, but the win against Kansas City,

858
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 2: a game where I bet Indy, was about as big

859
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,680
Speaker 2: a facade of a win that we will see all

860
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 2: season long. I still don't know how the Colts won

861
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 2: that game. And then just looking at Denver Thursday Night

862
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 2: football again like they should have lost the game, and

863
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 2: that was about as bad as the Broncos could play overall. Ultimately,

864
00:41:56,640 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 2: until I see something from the Indianapolis offense, I just

865
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 2: I don't know where they're like, how they're really going

866
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 2: to move the ball. Jacksonville can get a pass rush going,

867
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 2: the indye O line cannot block anything right now, and

868
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan is just not only is he a statue.

869
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 2: It'd be fine if he just stood there and took

870
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,959
Speaker 2: a sack, but he seems to fumble on like every

871
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 2: other play as well. It can't hold onto the ball,

872
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:23,879
Speaker 2: which makes it so much worse. I lean heavily towards Jacksonville.

873
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 2: I you know, maybe ten days to prepare for Frank

874
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 2: Reich is something I'm struggling to come up with other

875
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 2: reasons where I could lay points with Indianapolis at home,

876
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:36,360
Speaker 2: even at a small number.

877
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:38,160
Speaker 1: Now, what do you think?

878
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:42,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, I you know, like Rob, I was pretty low

879
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 3: on Jacksonville to start the year. They were one of

880
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:48,280
Speaker 3: my lowest rated teams, and so they are the team

881
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 3: that I've actually moved up the most in terms of

882
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:54,759
Speaker 3: point differential from the start of the year to now,

883
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:58,759
Speaker 3: and you know, yeah, Indy has moved down, So I

884
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 3: have them now within a point of each other. And

885
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 3: I'm actually curious. I still I want to get Rob's

886
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,920
Speaker 3: thoughts on this. I still have a slight lean towards

887
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 3: the Colts just based on my numbers, but I don't

888
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 3: want to bet it. I for sure don't want to

889
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 3: bet it. And Rob, I'm curious, do you actually have

890
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 3: the Jags ahead of the Colts now?

891
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:20,839
Speaker 2: I do, so I have these both below average teams

892
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 2: in the league. I have Indy one and a half

893
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 2: worse than a league average team and the Colt excuse me,

894
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 2: the Jags about one point worse. I still think there's

895
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 2: a very wide range on the Jet. So the one

896
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 2: thing that the numbers are not going to tell you

897
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 2: with the Jags is that they beat Indy in Week

898
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 2: two without the Colts having two of their top three

899
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,400
Speaker 2: receivers in that game, and then their game against the

900
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:45,320
Speaker 2: Chargers really skews everything. But everyone on the Chargers was

901
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 2: hurt like that was a It was the Justin Herbert

902
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 2: first game off the rib injury, taking a shot before

903
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 2: he was going to play the game. Offensive line injuries

904
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:58,280
Speaker 2: Keenan Allen defensive injuries. Like they they caught the Chargers

905
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 2: at the best possible spot, and my numbers don't necessarily

906
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 2: capture that. No one's will right now, right, It's just

907
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 2: like they played the Chargers. They won in such an

908
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:10,280
Speaker 2: impressive fashion. So I think the Jags could be anything.

909
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:12,439
Speaker 2: I think nobody knows what the Jags are right now.

910
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:16,719
Speaker 2: I think Indy, I'm pretty confident that they are going

911
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:20,160
Speaker 2: to be horrible offensively for the remainder of the year.

912
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:23,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have the Jags like you. I have the

913
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 3: Jags minus one. I haven't adjusted the Colts far enough.

914
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:30,879
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna like imagine that that is the case

915
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 3: for me. I still have them around zero, and that

916
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:37,799
Speaker 3: does feel a little bit too high. Given the trajectory

917
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:38,360
Speaker 3: of this team.

918
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 1: I am very concerned with who is the quarterback for

919
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 1: the Cults next year and the year after that. Eventually

920
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 1: Tom Brady's got to go there to finish his career, right,

921
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,399
Speaker 1: because this is just now where quarterbacks go to die.

922
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 1: Your final destination is Indy. This is going to be

923
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:55,720
Speaker 1: their what fourth and four years even worse.

924
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's tough. I mean I thought this would be

925
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:02,319
Speaker 2: I was high on the Colts going of the year.

926
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 2: I honestly thought this would be like a Philip River

927
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 2: season where they're good enough to compete, probably not good

928
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:10,839
Speaker 2: enough to get over the hump. But I even watch

929
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan in preseason and he didn't look anywhere near

930
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 2: as bad as this. Now you get to you know, full,

931
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 2: you know, one hundred percent game. You're playing against the

932
00:45:17,719 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 2: first team defense every single time, and the O line

933
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 2: is just a huge problem. We'll see if Jonathan Taylor

934
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 2: can play. Honestly, if he does, I'm not sure it

935
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 2: has that much of an impact because of the ankle

936
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 2: injury and coming back on you know, what's deemed to

937
00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 2: be short rest for that type of injury, But they

938
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:37,479
Speaker 2: have to get something going on the ground or else.

939
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 2: If Matt Ryan's just in these consistent third and long situations,

940
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:44,880
Speaker 2: it's it's it's impossible for them to move the chains.

941
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 1: It's almost like maybe your highest paid offensive lineman shouldn't

942
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:51,080
Speaker 1: be your guard, but hey, it is what it is. Now.

943
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 1: One more team that I want to talk about here

944
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:54,959
Speaker 1: before we talk about the absolute game of the week

945
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 1: and Thursday Night football this week, the Raiders. It was

946
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 1: an interesting night game last night when we're recording this

947
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 1: right now, and you know, all of a sudden for

948
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:10,319
Speaker 1: this team, it's still an impressive cover and really they

949
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:12,759
Speaker 1: were right there to win it a defensive holding call

950
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,840
Speaker 1: on a missed field goal? Are you kidding mey? Fun fact?

951
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 1: By fun fact? By the way, here, not only are

952
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 1: the Raiders the only team that can benefit from one

953
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 1: of the most ridiculous calls that I've ever seen and

954
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 1: still somehow end the game. Job by the refs. Do

955
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 1: you know the last time a defensive holding has been

956
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:30,399
Speaker 1: called on a field goal?

957
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 2: I couldn't tell you twenty fifteen.

958
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 1: And take a wild guess at the team it was

959
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 1: called on.

960
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 3: I'm gonna guess it was the Raiders.

961
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 1: It was the Raiders. You can't make this stuff up

962
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 1: with this team. And now they sit here one and

963
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 1: four and they're like the Lions of last year. They

964
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:52,800
Speaker 1: have not lost the game by more than one possession

965
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:55,919
Speaker 1: just yet, and this was definitely some of the best

966
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 1: football that they've played so far. Can you move them

967
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,000
Speaker 1: up at all? Like? This team does have a lot

968
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 1: of talent and apparently also pushes cameramen. Now, but that

969
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:08,479
Speaker 1: was a tough loss for them. What are you thinking

970
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 1: about the Raiders going forward, Matt, I know that you

971
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 1: think that they're terrible, and I was with you. I

972
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:14,479
Speaker 1: thought they were gonna get blown out in this game.

973
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 1: But I'm still impressed by what we saw there.

974
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 3: I was impressed. I was impressed by what we saw

975
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 3: last night.

976
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:21,440
Speaker 1: Actually, you know, I.

977
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean they should have win. They should have

978
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 3: won that game.

979
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 1: It was right there.

980
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:28,320
Speaker 3: And so after that game, regardless of outcome, I bumped

981
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:30,320
Speaker 3: them up to the power ratings and I bumped the

982
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:32,440
Speaker 3: Chiefs down to the power ratings. I think that's the

983
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 3: only way you can respond to that game.

984
00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 1: Really, I don't think you need to bump I guess

985
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:38,800
Speaker 1: if you're that low on the Raiders, you have to

986
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:41,719
Speaker 1: bump the Chiefs down a little. But they still got

987
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 1: it done at the end. What do you think.

988
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, So, like the thing with the Chiefs, and there's

989
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 2: scientific data to support this, they actually do as much

990
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:53,239
Speaker 2: as I joke about it. They do have two playbooks.

991
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 2: They have the the you know, we don't want to

992
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 2: show you anything because we have a big game next

993
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:01,799
Speaker 2: week playbook. And I think that's what we got from

994
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:04,480
Speaker 2: the Chiefs offense. For a large majority of last night's game, like,

995
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:07,760
Speaker 2: you didn't get any crazy plays that they're accustomed to doing. Obviously,

996
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 2: they have Buffalo on deck this week, which is a

997
00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 2: huge game. Now you can argue his divisional game against

998
00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 2: the Raiders Monday night Football big game as well. But

999
00:48:15,800 --> 00:48:18,439
Speaker 2: we've seen this for Andy Reid for many years now,

1000
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:21,359
Speaker 2: going on many years, So I don't know how much

1001
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:24,919
Speaker 2: I can trust my adjustments based off last night's game.

1002
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 2: I will say like this Raiders team is just the

1003
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 2: opposite of the Raiders team a year ago, because the

1004
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 2: Raiders team a year ago is nowhere near as good

1005
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 2: as their record indicated. Had all of these close wins,

1006
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 2: flukey wins, they go to the playoffs. They almost upset

1007
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 2: the Bengals in the playoffs on the road, came down

1008
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:45,239
Speaker 2: to that interception that car through in the red zone

1009
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:45,759
Speaker 2: in the end zone.

1010
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:46,799
Speaker 1: I think of that game.

1011
00:48:47,160 --> 00:48:49,640
Speaker 2: But now it's like the opposite and you're just kind

1012
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 2: of seeing like water find its level, so to speak,

1013
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:54,359
Speaker 2: where I don't think they're much different than the team

1014
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 2: from last year. I'm not a huge Josh McDaniels fan overall.

1015
00:48:57,960 --> 00:49:00,440
Speaker 2: I think he loses me at several times. But this

1016
00:49:00,600 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 2: is the healthiest that they've been in a while. They

1017
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 2: got their center Andre James back, last week, they got

1018
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:09,360
Speaker 2: hunter Renfro back. This week they lose Darren Waller mid game,

1019
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 2: which is going to hurt them. But I think at

1020
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:13,879
Speaker 2: full health, the Raiders are fine. You're going to get

1021
00:49:13,960 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 2: an above average offense and a well below average defense,

1022
00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 2: and they're going to compete in a lot of games

1023
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 2: because their offense is able to overcome a lot of that.

1024
00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:25,200
Speaker 2: But ultimately they're just not at that echelon of the

1025
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:26,920
Speaker 2: upper tier teams in the league, and they're going to

1026
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:29,360
Speaker 2: lose a lot of close games. So I don't know.

1027
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:31,160
Speaker 2: I think the Raiders are just like a very close

1028
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 2: to a league average team right now. Case I do

1029
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 2: slightly downgrade them off of last night's performance, you do

1030
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:41,720
Speaker 2: have to account for that game whatsoever. But I feel

1031
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:44,759
Speaker 2: like we didn't get the we didn't get like the

1032
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:48,080
Speaker 2: week before Sunday Night Football Chiefs and Bucks. The amount

1033
00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 2: of crazy plays in that game. You know, Mahomes flip passes,

1034
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:53,239
Speaker 2: he got the shovel pass at the goal line, tight

1035
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 2: ends taking a snap at the goal line, running a

1036
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 2: touchdown like that. That's when the Chiefs are at their

1037
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 2: their full power and that's really what like their ceiling

1038
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:03,879
Speaker 2: is extremely high. I don't think we saw it last night.

1039
00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 1: The Raiders redefining zero coverage is zero defenders on Travis

1040
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 1: Kelsey was a bold call. I don't think that one

1041
00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 1: paid off. But I am absolutely against the common twitter

1042
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 1: verse take of last night that they shouldn't have gone

1043
00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:20,919
Speaker 1: for that two point conversion. You go for that too,

1044
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 1: That made sense there. I'm fine with it. I don't know,

1045
00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 1: one way or another. I'm okay with that decision. Typically speaking, obviously,

1046
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:32,759
Speaker 1: you wait till much later in the game if you're

1047
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:34,640
Speaker 1: going to attempt that, because it's it's sort of a

1048
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:37,759
Speaker 1: guaranteed win at that spot. But I'm okay with them

1049
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:40,920
Speaker 1: going for two if they feel like if they on

1050
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 1: side kick it there if they don't get it, because

1051
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 1: I feel like at that point, you're just like our

1052
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:46,719
Speaker 1: defense is really doesn't have a hope in this game

1053
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 1: for the most part.

1054
00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 2: We need something lucky.

1055
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 1: I don't know.

1056
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:51,960
Speaker 2: It's a weird game overall. In terms of the fourth

1057
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:53,839
Speaker 2: down calling, I liked a lot of what I saw.

1058
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 2: Obviously the fourth down in the first half. People love

1059
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 2: to blame the Raiders for going for two with ignoring

1060
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 2: the fact that they went for fourth down and scored

1061
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 2: a sixty yard touchdown in the first half, that like

1062
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 2: was the most massive play of the game in terms

1063
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 2: of win expectancy added. So that's what kills me this course.

1064
00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 1: And then they didn't go forward on the next fourth

1065
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:12,400
Speaker 1: and one and they kicked the field goal to go

1066
00:51:12,480 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 1: up seventeen nothing, and that was the turning point. That's

1067
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:15,960
Speaker 1: the play I have a problem with.

1068
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:18,360
Speaker 3: That's you know, actually to I'm glad you mentioned that,

1069
00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 3: because there are points where Josh mcdanials with his offense

1070
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 3: it looks really intriguing. And then there are some times

1071
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:26,520
Speaker 3: when he makes decisions and you think, okay, like that

1072
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:30,759
Speaker 3: is sharp. The thing is like he doesn't string decisions

1073
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 3: together that make you see the consistency of like a

1074
00:51:34,640 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 3: coherent thought or coherent like philosophy about how he's going

1075
00:51:38,719 --> 00:51:41,879
Speaker 3: to attack opponents. And so that is the thing that

1076
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 3: really makes me hesitant about the Raiders.

1077
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 2: I think, I'm just sorry, sorry to cut you off.

1078
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 2: I think one thing that as somebody who's a math

1079
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:55,680
Speaker 2: guy and like a proponent of analytics and like making

1080
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:58,919
Speaker 2: math based decisions in game, the one thing that drives

1081
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:00,680
Speaker 2: me crazy about the discord, or is that we have

1082
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:03,480
Speaker 2: no idea what's going through the coach's head in that moment, right,

1083
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 2: I have no idea if Josh McDaniels has somebody telling

1084
00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:09,279
Speaker 2: him whether he should go forward or not. And I

1085
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,279
Speaker 2: wish that we could just get some someone in the

1086
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 2: in the locker room after the game, or like the

1087
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 2: postgame press that says, walk me through this decision, and

1088
00:52:17,440 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 2: then you know, press the guy on it, like did

1089
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 2: you make this decision on your own in the heat

1090
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:23,960
Speaker 2: of the moment? Did were you're processing some sort Because

1091
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 2: everything gets filtered back to analytics ruining the game. It's like, oh,

1092
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:29,799
Speaker 2: like this guy doesn't know what he's doing. Analytics are

1093
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:32,200
Speaker 2: ruining the game, and it's like, I have no idea

1094
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 2: what factor into that those Josh McDaniel's decisions. I don't

1095
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 2: know what Brandon Staley's doing this year. Has he just

1096
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 2: completely dismissed like.

1097
00:52:40,200 --> 00:52:42,959
Speaker 1: Apparently he has? Apparently he is ignoring them.

1098
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 2: But I would like to know that so that not

1099
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:49,920
Speaker 2: everything that negatively that happens on fourth down or a

1100
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:53,640
Speaker 2: two point conversion is just comes back to like, oh, analytics.

1101
00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 2: I'd love to see a coach come out and just

1102
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:57,440
Speaker 2: be like, yeah, you know, I I didn't know what

1103
00:52:57,480 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 2: the numbers were, and I thought we should go for

1104
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 2: it and put it in that situation so that maybe

1105
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:05,440
Speaker 2: one time somebody could not blame the analytics movement for

1106
00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:06,919
Speaker 2: a negative outcome of a game.

1107
00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, we also actually bet real money on a game

1108
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:12,880
Speaker 1: where the crowd basically made a rough cry and that

1109
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:16,920
Speaker 1: determined the outcome of the game. This is absolutely ridiculous

1110
00:53:16,920 --> 00:53:19,520
Speaker 1: with the officiating in this league. But that's a story

1111
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 1: for a different podcast here, because we have to get

1112
00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:24,319
Speaker 1: to the barn burner of the week. This is going

1113
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 1: to be an absolute banger, ladies and gentlemen. This is

1114
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:31,120
Speaker 1: the future of football. The Bears versus the Commanders. It's

1115
00:53:31,160 --> 00:53:34,840
Speaker 1: minus one to a pick them in some spots. Right now, guys,

1116
00:53:34,880 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 1: I want to start it off looking at the total here,

1117
00:53:38,080 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 1: Rob over under five viewers Thursday night.

1118
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:44,520
Speaker 2: Oh, there's gonna be over five viewers, because there's gonna

1119
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:47,080
Speaker 2: be way more than that. Are actually betting this game

1120
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:49,399
Speaker 2: because they have nothing else to do, right, I mean,

1121
00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 2: the quality of the game, guys, is not really affecting

1122
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 2: the ticket amounts for the most part. For Thursday Night

1123
00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:58,319
Speaker 2: Football could be any game in there and people are

1124
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 2: going to watch it somehow, So I still say over

1125
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 2: and they're like, my Twitter feed on Thursday night will

1126
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:07,799
Speaker 2: be people complaining about everything to do with this game.

1127
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:09,880
Speaker 1: It's gonna be the forced wide. It's gonna be like

1128
00:54:09,880 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 1: Clockwork Orange, where we're just gonna be taping our eyes

1129
00:54:12,600 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 1: open and forcing ourselves to watch this absolute trash fest.

1130
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:20,360
Speaker 1: But where are you looking in this game? I personally

1131
00:54:20,360 --> 00:54:23,840
Speaker 1: don't have any desire to take a side normally, but

1132
00:54:24,520 --> 00:54:26,800
Speaker 1: I hate the Commanders this season. I think the Bears

1133
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:29,200
Speaker 1: are still a little bit better than them, and if

1134
00:54:29,239 --> 00:54:31,360
Speaker 1: I can get this at a pick them, I'm inclined

1135
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:33,120
Speaker 1: to think that the Bears come out ahead at home. Here.

1136
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 2: I lean strongly to the Commanders, but there's like some

1137
00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:41,680
Speaker 2: off the field stuff that has kind of derailed me,

1138
00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:44,719
Speaker 2: Like this could this could be one of they.

1139
00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 1: You mean, like you mean, like your head coach absolutely

1140
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 1: throwing your quarterback under the box, right, So.

1141
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 2: You know, candidly speaking, a few weeks ago, I identified

1142
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:55,040
Speaker 2: Carolina as one of those teams. I'm like, you know,

1143
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:57,360
Speaker 2: Matt Rule's gonna get fired. This team is not getting

1144
00:54:57,440 --> 00:55:00,760
Speaker 2: up for these games. They're consistently underperforming a against the spread,

1145
00:55:01,320 --> 00:55:04,680
Speaker 2: like dating back to last season, there's maybe something there.

1146
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:07,880
Speaker 2: I think there's probably something there with Ron Rivera as well.

1147
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:12,600
Speaker 2: The team on paper, personnel wise, is not as bad

1148
00:55:12,640 --> 00:55:15,840
Speaker 2: as they are playing, even with Carson Wentz. Like I

1149
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:18,520
Speaker 2: don't like Carson Wentz. He's not a good quarterback, but

1150
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:21,920
Speaker 2: we've seen him at least at times show flashes before

1151
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:24,120
Speaker 2: and he's not really doing that at all. With Washington.

1152
00:55:24,880 --> 00:55:27,239
Speaker 2: It's still commanders or nothing. I'm not laying points with

1153
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:30,160
Speaker 2: the Bears like you can, even if it's one. I

1154
00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:34,280
Speaker 2: cannot fundamentally get to the Bears being favorites. We should

1155
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:36,680
Speaker 2: point out it is very likely to be a win game.

1156
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:39,400
Speaker 2: Looking at the wins now, it's like eighteen miles an

1157
00:55:39,440 --> 00:55:42,279
Speaker 2: hour expected with some stronger gusts as well. I don't

1158
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:45,960
Speaker 2: even know who that favors. I guess maybe Washington actually

1159
00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:48,320
Speaker 2: has some semblance of a run defense. They can't defend

1160
00:55:48,320 --> 00:55:51,279
Speaker 2: the pass whatsoever this year. Maybe this helps them, I

1161
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:52,480
Speaker 2: don't know, but.

1162
00:55:53,600 --> 00:55:55,239
Speaker 1: They don't really need to defend the pass against the

1163
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 1: Bears because they run the wishbone exactly.

1164
00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:01,520
Speaker 2: They I cannot believe that offense. I actually can't believe

1165
00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:04,200
Speaker 2: the Bears offense is a real life offense, and they

1166
00:56:04,239 --> 00:56:06,400
Speaker 2: they covered again like this sort of they covered against

1167
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 2: the vikings expected points in that game must have been

1168
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,920
Speaker 2: vikings by like three or four touchdowns. I if you

1169
00:56:12,920 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 2: were to just look at that box score and say

1170
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 2: which of these teams won and by how much you're

1171
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:21,880
Speaker 2: not getting vikings by whatever it was, you know seven,

1172
00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:25,120
Speaker 2: it's it's vikings by twenty four something like that. So

1173
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:29,040
Speaker 2: I don't know how the Bears do it. But this

1174
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:33,279
Speaker 2: might be the one where Washington finally is is you know,

1175
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:36,720
Speaker 2: gets a w game, so it's it's commanders are nothing.

1176
00:56:36,840 --> 00:56:39,440
Speaker 2: I very likely will not have a bet, though. What

1177
00:56:39,520 --> 00:56:40,120
Speaker 2: do you think, Matt?

1178
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I you know, I hate both of these teams.

1179
00:56:45,640 --> 00:56:47,799
Speaker 1: That feels like it should go without This is the

1180
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:48,680
Speaker 1: wet blanket ball.

1181
00:56:48,960 --> 00:56:50,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, it feels like it should go without saying I

1182
00:56:50,719 --> 00:56:54,799
Speaker 3: hate these teams. I did bet Chicago at plus one,

1183
00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:57,960
Speaker 3: you know, early in the market when this was kind

1184
00:56:57,960 --> 00:57:02,360
Speaker 3: of vacillating back and forth. I do think Chicago should

1185
00:57:02,400 --> 00:57:04,799
Speaker 3: be favored in this spot. But I will say, like

1186
00:57:05,080 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 3: I have a decent opinion at least of their defense.

1187
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:13,879
Speaker 3: I have a bad opinion of pretty much every other unit.

1188
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 3: In this game, so I think like for them, that

1189
00:57:18,040 --> 00:57:20,360
Speaker 3: is what distinguishes them. That is why I do have

1190
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:23,440
Speaker 3: them as favorites in this spot. I mean, yes, I

1191
00:57:23,480 --> 00:57:26,280
Speaker 3: did bet on Chicago because I am a degenerate and

1192
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:29,320
Speaker 3: it is Thursday night football, and I did show value.

1193
00:57:29,360 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 3: I do show value on them, but it's not a

1194
00:57:31,640 --> 00:57:32,960
Speaker 3: bet that I actually like.

1195
00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:36,240
Speaker 1: I'm very happy I have a soccer game during my

1196
00:57:36,520 --> 00:57:38,360
Speaker 1: Thursday night football so I do not have to watch

1197
00:57:38,440 --> 00:57:38,800
Speaker 1: this game.

1198
00:57:38,840 --> 00:57:41,000
Speaker 3: I'm very winners are going to be the people who

1199
00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:44,480
Speaker 3: don't watch. That was the case last Thursday, and that

1200
00:57:44,560 --> 00:57:45,920
Speaker 3: will be the case this Thursday.

1201
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:48,840
Speaker 1: That is the case most Thursdays. These games are terrible

1202
00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:50,840
Speaker 1: and need to be stopped. They never will be. But

1203
00:57:51,040 --> 00:57:53,520
Speaker 1: we don't need we don't need Thursday night football. That's

1204
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:56,240
Speaker 1: just the reality, I would agree.

1205
00:57:56,280 --> 00:57:59,120
Speaker 2: I mean, I watch the games regardless, So maybe I'm

1206
00:57:59,120 --> 00:58:02,600
Speaker 2: doing a disservice. We're part of the problem. Yes, exactly,

1207
00:58:02,720 --> 00:58:04,440
Speaker 2: That's what I was gonna get at. I mean, were

1208
00:58:04,880 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 2: we say this right, like we don't need Thursday night football.

1209
00:58:07,840 --> 00:58:10,240
Speaker 2: I literally watch the game every single week and do

1210
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:14,480
Speaker 2: not miss like I'll miss events to watch Thursday night

1211
00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:17,560
Speaker 2: football games. So it's the sad reality of where I

1212
00:58:17,600 --> 00:58:19,160
Speaker 2: am as a football fan right now.

1213
00:58:19,640 --> 00:58:22,000
Speaker 1: We're sick, sick people. But guys, that is going to

1214
00:58:22,040 --> 00:58:23,919
Speaker 1: do it for us. Rob, we have kept you far

1215
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:26,240
Speaker 1: too long. Thank you so much for joining us today

1216
00:58:26,240 --> 00:58:28,480
Speaker 1: one more time. Where can people find you in the

1217
00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:30,800
Speaker 1: great work you're doing around the internet with the Hammer Network.

1218
00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:32,919
Speaker 2: Yeah for sure, So anyone who wants to check it out,

1219
00:58:32,960 --> 00:58:36,160
Speaker 2: you can visit the Hammer dot Bet. Tons of content

1220
00:58:36,240 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 2: up there. Hockey season starting now, so we'll have some

1221
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:42,520
Speaker 2: hockey stuff up there as well, but we're packed with football, NFL,

1222
00:58:42,600 --> 00:58:44,720
Speaker 2: college football over the course of the week. Whether you

1223
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 2: consume written, podcasts, video, it's all there. So check out

1224
00:58:49,240 --> 00:58:51,080
Speaker 2: the Hammer dot bet. And also, if you're just looking

1225
00:58:51,120 --> 00:58:54,800
Speaker 2: to line shop, use my line shopping service that's betstamp.

1226
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:57,760
Speaker 2: You can download that on Android or iOS and check

1227
00:58:57,800 --> 00:58:59,840
Speaker 2: it out at betstamp dot app as well.

1228
00:59:00,400 --> 00:59:03,320
Speaker 1: Guys, thank you again so much for tuning in here today.

1229
00:59:03,360 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 1: Thank you one more time, Rob for joining us. That

1230
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:08,720
Speaker 1: is gonna do it for our Week six rankings, tune

1231
00:59:08,760 --> 00:59:11,520
Speaker 1: in on Thursday, of course, we will be breaking down

1232
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:15,560
Speaker 1: our favorite games of the Week six slate. But for now, guys,

1233
00:59:15,880 --> 00:59:19,120
Speaker 1: we'll see you next time, and let's cash those tickets