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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Wait in me, raise your hand if you saw this

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Speaker 2: one coming.

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Speaker 3: I guess this guy can.

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Speaker 1: Run all night.

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Speaker 4: And he moved on to.

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by Fan Duel.

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Speaker 5: I'm your host, Anthony Dubundo and this is a special

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Speaker 5: Roland Garris Best Bets Edition French Open, whatever you want

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Speaker 5: to call it. I'm Anthony Dubundo, joined by Action Networks

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Speaker 5: Tennis editor Avery Zimmerman and our special guest from the

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Speaker 5: Tennis Channel and from Monday Match Analysis, Gil Gross. Gentlemen,

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Speaker 5: we did a preview for the Australian Open. We all

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Speaker 5: agree Djokovic was the clear favorite. He was the rightful

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Speaker 5: minus one ten favorite at the time and went on

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Speaker 5: to win the tournament. And now it's a little bit

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Speaker 5: more uncertain at the top. Rafi on Nadal not the tournament.

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Speaker 5: He won it last year. He's the defending champion. He's

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Speaker 5: out with an injury and that really opens the door

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Speaker 5: because Nadal has dominated this tournament for so long and

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Speaker 5: now Carlos Alkaraz is the betting favorite, the up and

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Speaker 5: coming superstar. I guess he's now arrived. At this point,

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Speaker 5: Avery will start with you. We want to get right

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Speaker 5: into the action. What is your best bet? It could

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Speaker 5: be a quarter, a future around one matchup. What is

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Speaker 5: your best bet for the French Open this year?

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Speaker 4: And why.

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Speaker 2: Given me born at George fourteen to one to win

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Speaker 2: his quarter, I think, out of any quarter bet, this

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Speaker 2: is easily my favorite one. He has longer odds in

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Speaker 2: the quarter than Dominic Team, he has longer odds than

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Speaker 2: Alexander Zverev, and he's far longer than they Onick Center

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Speaker 2: and Danil Mevedev, despite the fact that he's just about

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Speaker 2: showing the same level of combatance on the clay and

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Speaker 2: form as Center and Medvedev, and certainly far better than

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Speaker 2: Zverev and Team. I think when you're looking at fourteen

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Speaker 2: to one and you consider his first two rounds are

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Speaker 2: Federico Korea and the winner of Team and Paedri Kashan,

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Speaker 2: he'll be the favorite, significant favorite in each of those

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Speaker 2: rounds no matter who he's playing. Perhaps Kashin could cause

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Speaker 2: him a little bit of problems, but he's someone that's

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Speaker 2: a little bit better and elevated clay, so I think

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Speaker 2: somewhere like Santiago.

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Speaker 3: Or Geneva.

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Speaker 2: Beyond that, he'll have demon or or beyond that, it's

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Speaker 2: really just Vereb center and then Medvedev. So I think

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Speaker 2: you're getting a player that really just has to win

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Speaker 2: a couple of matches as a very small underdog, and

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Speaker 2: someone that has kind of the form, someone that has

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Speaker 2: the confidence going in. He doesn't necessarily have the rolling

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Speaker 2: Garros record to back it up, but I think he's

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Speaker 2: someone that could that could really thrive in this physical environment.

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Speaker 1: So Avery and I were we probably disagree then on

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Speaker 1: Danil Medvedev because my favorite bet, and obviously a lot

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Speaker 1: of this would be about the hedge at the end,

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Speaker 1: but Medvedev plus nine hundred to win, which you know

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Speaker 1: it would be wild to think about even last year

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Speaker 1: or three weeks ago. But I look at the three

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Speaker 1: ingredients we have with Medvedev right now, first in the

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Speaker 1: race along with Alcaraz, he's been the best player in

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Speaker 1: the world if you just take the full body of work.

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Speaker 1: Then you look at a guy who has already won

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Speaker 1: a major. We've seen him do it, and he's won

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Speaker 1: rom And it's not as if the draw opened up

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Speaker 1: and that's how he was able to kind of snatch

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Speaker 1: that first Master's one thousand title on clay. No, he

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Speaker 1: beat Sitsipas, and he beat Runa, two of the major

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Speaker 1: contenders here at Roland Garo's outside of al Karaz and Djokovic.

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Speaker 1: I get why there's still some hesitation. You don't want

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Speaker 1: to overreact to one week, and the history on clay

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Speaker 1: with Medvedev is really, really awful. I just think he's

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Speaker 1: a different guy right now. I think the forehand is

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Speaker 1: completely different and that has just unlocked a new level

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Speaker 1: on not to mention, like, I excuse the Manti Carlo

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Speaker 1: lost where he barely had any time to prepare after

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Speaker 1: an unbelievable physical February and March. I excuse Madrid, where

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Speaker 1: he was playing on a court that was too tiny

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Speaker 1: for him to return from where he likes to return from.

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Speaker 1: And then I won't bore the listeners with all the details.

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Speaker 1: But if you go back the last three years, I

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Speaker 1: excuse a lot of the clay struggles because of some

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Speaker 1: of the injuries he's had and the weird circumstances he's had.

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Speaker 1: So I erased all that looked great in Rome. Number

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Speaker 1: one in the race one a major. I like him

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Speaker 1: plus nine hundred to win.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, go.

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Speaker 5: I think we talked about this even a few years ago,

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Speaker 5: there was never any reason why Medvedev couldn't be a

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Speaker 5: good clay player with his style, and now we're finally

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Speaker 5: seeing that he seems to have committed to actually wanting

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Speaker 5: to play on the surface and not just be you know,

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Speaker 5: a hardcore guy who you know, took the the spring

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Speaker 5: of the summer off basically and didn't care about clay grass.

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Speaker 5: And now you're seeing that, you know, Medvedev's results are

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Speaker 5: finally catching up to what we know the talent was.

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Speaker 5: And of course we all know he had a rough

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Speaker 5: last year, but he's really turned it around this season.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna go in the same quarter.

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Speaker 5: I think we're really attacking this quarter, and I think

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Speaker 5: for a good reason. It is pretty relatively open. I

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Speaker 5: liked the path here for Sashasverev, and I think this

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Speaker 5: is a good time to kind of get in him

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Speaker 5: when he's an underdog and not somebody who's coming in

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Speaker 5: with the pressure. Because we've seen Zverev struggle with that

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Speaker 5: pressure label and struggle with his consistency, especially in the

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Speaker 5: big slams. It's really been defining his career. But he

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Speaker 5: has played decently well this year, except when he's caught

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Speaker 5: up against those top top guys, right, he loses in

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Speaker 5: Indian Wells to Medvedev, he loses in Monte Carlo to Medvedev,

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Speaker 5: he loses in Madrid to Alcoraz, and then he loses

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Speaker 5: in Rome to Medvedev. But you know the other matches

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Speaker 5: besides that, he's looked pretty solid and so I'm not

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Speaker 5: gonna just, you know, count him out because he's gotten

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Speaker 5: boat raced by you know, the two best players in

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Speaker 5: the world this year, week in and week out. So

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Speaker 5: I think it, you know, plus seven to fifty. The

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Speaker 5: path for him is not that bad either. If you

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Speaker 5: look at his path, you know, Lloyd Harrison round one,

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Speaker 5: potentially Hugo gas Stone or Alex Mulchan in round two,

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Speaker 5: Tiafo not his best surface at all in round three.

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Speaker 5: I think those are all relatively favorable draws for him

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Speaker 5: to get to the fourth round.

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Speaker 4: He would then probably face.

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Speaker 5: Center and that would be a tough one for sure,

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Speaker 5: But at plus seven fifty, I think that's my best

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Speaker 5: bet for this. I like getting in on Sasha when

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Speaker 5: there isn't pressure, when he is more of an underdog

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Speaker 5: and he's finally healthy enough to at least put up

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Speaker 5: consistent performances week in and week out, even if he

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Speaker 5: hasn't gotten back to that top level that we saw

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Speaker 5: when he was in the top you know, three or

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Speaker 5: four in the world. All right, So we're gonna go

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Speaker 5: quarter by quarter. We'll start at the top. Carlos Akaraz

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Speaker 5: is the top seed at the draw. As I mentioned before,

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Speaker 5: he was everybody's dark horse last season. I remember he

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Speaker 5: was a one point the betting favorite over Djokovic and

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Speaker 5: Nadal going into that tournament. He ended up losing in

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Speaker 5: the quarterfinals to Zverev. Since then, he's won the US Open,

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Speaker 5: He's become the world number one. He won Barcelona, he

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Speaker 5: won Madrid twenty and two on the clay, even though

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Speaker 5: he had a bizarre.

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Speaker 4: Loss in Rome.

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Speaker 5: Is he ready now to be the favorite? And what

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Speaker 5: is your general discussion in best bet in quarter one

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Speaker 5: here where he's matched up potentially with Stefano sitzepas a

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Speaker 5: player much of an enigma but usually pretty good on

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Speaker 5: the clay. Gil will start with.

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Speaker 1: You, yeah, and someone who Alcaraz is four and zero against.

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Speaker 1: In fact, I mean the introductory win where I think

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Speaker 1: all the casuals learned too. Carlos Alcaraz was was that

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Speaker 1: the US Open two years ago, when Alcaraz beat Stefanos

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Speaker 1: in a five setter in the third round on Arthur

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Speaker 1: ash Stadium. Alcaraz to me, it's it's been a dominant

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, he missed January he couldn't play the

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Speaker 1: Australian Open, but his record on the year win lost

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Speaker 1: record is thirty and three. So while Medvedev leads the race,

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Speaker 1: Alcaraz has from like a win percentage standpoint, been the best.

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Speaker 1: He's got four titles. I just think it's so valuable

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Speaker 1: that he already got his major, because when that, when

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Speaker 1: there's a zero next year name in terms of how

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Speaker 1: many majors you've you've won, you feel that weight on

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Speaker 1: your shoulders. And Alcaaz, you know, getting that US Open

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Speaker 1: title last year, I think it does. It does wonders

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Speaker 1: for his chances coming into Rollers. Is the favorite here.

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Speaker 1: I'd be worried about the pressure, but I don't think

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Speaker 1: I am, just because look, he already won one, and

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Speaker 1: obviously he'll win a lot more and he wants a

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Speaker 1: lot more. But I'm not worried about the pressure, and

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Speaker 1: I'm not worried about the loss to fabi on Maro

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Speaker 1: Jean in Rome. I thought Morojean's level was outstanding, and

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, over the course of

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Speaker 1: a full season, you're allowed a bad loss here and there,

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Speaker 1: and that was his first loss before a semi final

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Speaker 1: all year long.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agree with Gil, especially in the latter

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Speaker 2: portion of his analysis. I wouldn't really hold his loss

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Speaker 2: to maraje On too much against him. He's coming off

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Speaker 2: of a run in Madrid and Barcelona back to back

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Speaker 2: weeks where he won titles, and those are much different

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Speaker 2: conditions in Rome, not elevated like Madrid is, so that's

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Speaker 2: a big adjustment for al Karaz.

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Speaker 3: What I would say is that at.

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Speaker 2: This price you may as well hold off and kind

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Speaker 2: of avoid a little bit of risk. At plus one fifty,

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Speaker 2: he'll likely have to face Djokovic in the semifinals. There's

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Speaker 2: lots of questions about Jokovic's helps, though perhaps he can

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Speaker 2: avoid Djokovic. But nonetheless, even when you get to that match,

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Speaker 2: he won't be much much shorter than minus one fifty

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Speaker 2: minus one sixty something like that, So you're still likely

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Speaker 2: getting a plus money futures price if you just wait

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Speaker 2: until the semifinals. What I would say, with regards to

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Speaker 2: quarter one or there's two matches that I think you

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Speaker 2: can get some really nice value on. The first is

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Speaker 2: an American McKenzie MacDonald at plus one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 2: eight over Sebastian Quorda. Quarter has only played two matches

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Speaker 2: on clay this year. He was hurt in the Australian

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Speaker 2: Open and to take a big hiatus from the tour,

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Speaker 2: struggling for confidence, lost to Hugo Gramier and then Roman

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Speaker 2: Sephiel and not two people that are particularly solid on clay,

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Speaker 2: whereas MACKI does have a little bit of real consistency

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Speaker 2: on clay that he's shown. He's made the third round

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Speaker 2: of the French Open twice in the past two years.

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Speaker 2: He almost beat Christian Garin at Roland Garros, a really

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Speaker 2: solid clay quarter and he almost beat Bernavez A Patzo Morales,

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Speaker 2: who's playing unbelievable tennis in Madrid, and if it wasn't

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Speaker 2: first and missed second server turns and nerves really getting

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Speaker 2: the better of him, he probably does win that match.

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Speaker 2: And beyond that, I would also say that Mikayle Emer

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Speaker 2: against Lorenzo Massetti at plus four hundred is another great

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Speaker 2: spot I don't think you ever know what you're gonna

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Speaker 2: get with Musetti. He does have a solid history at

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Speaker 2: rolland Garros. The two people that he's lost to in

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Speaker 2: the past two years are Djokovic and Sisipas, and he

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Speaker 2: took two sets off of each of them. But nonetheless,

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Speaker 2: at plus four hundred, you're getting a player, an emir

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Speaker 2: who's in his preferred conditions, even though he isn't necessarily

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Speaker 2: coming off of his best event, in which he got

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Speaker 2: defaulted for smashing the umpire's chair in in Leon. Perhaps

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Speaker 2: he'll have an extra bit of motivation at Roland Garros.

220
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Speaker 1: I definitely think you want to fade Shop of All

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Speaker 1: off here. In terms of first round matches, Nakashima's at

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Speaker 1: minus one thirty. Chapos played two matches on clay all year.

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Speaker 1: He's got a knee injury, doesn't move well on the surface,

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Speaker 1: tends to get off balance really easily when he tries

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Speaker 1: to slide, doesn't bring consistency. I just I don't see

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Speaker 1: Chapo and a lot of people are talking about, oh,

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Speaker 1: Shop of All of Alcoraz third round, I just don't

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Speaker 1: think that match happens.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's where you see that the seated player is

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Speaker 5: an underdog in their first round match. It's not a

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Speaker 5: great look for Dennis. Certainly the court condition is not

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Speaker 5: great for him either, And you never I mean he's

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Speaker 5: as likely to play Carlos in round three or give

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Speaker 5: him a match as he is to lose in round

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Speaker 5: one in straight sets to Nakashima, for sure.

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Speaker 4: Any interested in Fabio Fanini?

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Speaker 5: Felix has been in really poor form, didn't win a

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Speaker 5: match at Rome, didn't win a match at Madrid. Comes

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Speaker 5: in you know plus two twenty here, I'm seeing it

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Speaker 5: FanDuel against Felix.

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Speaker 4: Any interested in Fabio?

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Speaker 5: I will definitely be betting Fabio to win the first set,

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Speaker 5: as is my tradition with him in these big slams.

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Speaker 5: He seems to always make an appearance, at least briefly,

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Speaker 5: you know, the will shine bright for a little bit,

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Speaker 5: maybe if he doesn't have the legs to pull out

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Speaker 5: these big wins anymore. But any interesting in Fabio potentially

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Speaker 5: taking out Felix? And then I'm interested in ben wa Pear.

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Speaker 4: And cam Norri?

250
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Speaker 5: Is cam Dorri too solid for ben wah And any

251
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Speaker 5: thoughts on scam Norri? You guys convinced me in betting

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Speaker 5: him last tournament. It will not be happening again after

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Speaker 5: he flaked out early again. So any thoughts on Pear

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Speaker 5: and Fanini too kind of fan favorite, journeyman, fascinating characters.

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Speaker 1: Cam I like again, but you know, respectfully, I've been

256
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Speaker 1: wrong about him for most of the season since March

257
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Speaker 1: he had a big golden swing, and now he hasn't

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Speaker 1: done much on the European clay court until this week

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Speaker 1: where he's doing well in Leone. But no, I mean

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Speaker 1: Pear hasn't won a tour level match since last summer

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Speaker 1: in Washington, so I'd probably stay away from that one.

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Speaker 1: But I liked your approach with Fanini. I think the

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Speaker 1: first set would be would be one with him. I

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Speaker 1: think you're you're wise to go that direction.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, tough to see pair holding it up physically.

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Speaker 2: Perhaps the first set there as well, where you could

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Speaker 2: do some damage against Noorri, especially considering Nori's going deep

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Speaker 2: in Leon.

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Speaker 3: Once again.

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Speaker 2: I would caution on Fognini plays because I think this

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Speaker 2: is a little bit of a deflated price on Felix

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Speaker 2: considering he withdrew from Leon with a right shoulder issue.

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Speaker 2: But in reality that's that's probably more likely a I

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Speaker 2: want to get to Rolling Garros and start my preparation

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Speaker 2: type injury rather than having serious concern about Felix. So

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Speaker 2: at plus two twenty, I don't really think you're getting

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Speaker 2: a good number on Fognini. Felix doesn't mind the conditions

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Speaker 2: At Rolling Gros. I mean, he pushed Rafa even harder

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Speaker 2: than than Novak did last year. You can make the

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Speaker 2: argument at least going to five sets, and that was

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Speaker 2: a Rafa that was in phenomenal form. So I think

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Speaker 2: the confidence will be there for Felix. Hopefully at this price,

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't be touching Fognini.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm looking.

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Speaker 5: You know, Carlos overwhelming favorite and quarter one sits a

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Speaker 5: pause atle plus three ninety.

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Speaker 4: You mentioned the head to head.

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Speaker 5: That kind of keeps me off any interest in betting

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Speaker 5: sits of past to take him out, because I do

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Speaker 5: think the draw is very friendly for Carlos to make

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Speaker 5: it to that quarter final matchup. And then you look

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Speaker 5: at the bottom half of the draw and you see,

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Speaker 5: you know, Felix, we just talked about his form and

294
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Speaker 5: being a bit inconsistent. The other seed there was Korda.

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Speaker 5: You don't really like Quorda coming into this avery, you know,

296
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Speaker 5: Schwartzman is pretty much cooked at this point as a

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Speaker 5: potential dark horse down there. So in the end, do

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Speaker 5: you guys see as being a bit chalky with with

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Speaker 5: Steph meeting up against Carlos in the quarter final and

300
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Speaker 5: then Carlos being a prohibited favorite there or do you

301
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Speaker 5: think that there could be any more surprises maybe in

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Speaker 5: quarter one people to watch out for.

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Speaker 2: The nature of the tournament is that is that upsets

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Speaker 2: are possible when you're on clay, and we know with

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Speaker 2: Carlos that there are times when he can overpress, especially

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Speaker 2: on a particularly slow surface like this one. It's certainly possible.

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Speaker 2: But I don't think there's really value in in betting

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Speaker 2: against it. And I really don't think sitzipasas the confidence

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Speaker 2: or the belief even to get by Carlos.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, I think this is the worst

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Speaker 1: quarter to make a bet on who's gonna win the

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Speaker 1: quarter given that, I do think Alcoraz will come through,

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Speaker 1: but I don't necessarily think there's value there. But what

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Speaker 1: I will say is Ctipas, I think maybe got the

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Speaker 1: easiest eighth in the entire draw. A lot of the

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Speaker 1: unseated guys are fast court players. Third rounds of Patta Marias,

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Speaker 1: who he destroyed in Madrid, then the other you know,

318
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Speaker 1: the other section, which would be his potential fourth rounds.

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Speaker 1: It's Faa and Quorda, and you know both of them

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Speaker 1: haven't been healthy, and you know the conditions. You know,

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Speaker 1: you're right, Avery, FAA's played great in Paris, but it's

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Speaker 1: not ideal conditions for either of them. Actually, Quorda I

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Speaker 1: kind of do like on the clay. It's more of

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Speaker 1: the health for both of them. So I think there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of mysteries in Titipas's quarter. The only

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Speaker 1: bet that I think you would consider is if you

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Speaker 1: think there's a chance that Alcaraz suffers a surprise defeat

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Speaker 1: like he did in Rome. I mean, am I confident

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Speaker 1: that Titipas would take advantage of that? Yes, but again

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Speaker 1: I don't I don't know that that's a really good

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Speaker 1: percentage angle.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this is the only surface I will ever trust

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Speaker 5: steph On So I was hoping to get a good

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Speaker 5: number on him, but then he gets put with Acoraz

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Speaker 5: and like plus you know, three ninety, it's like, yeah,

336
00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,520
Speaker 5: not quite good enough. Maybe six or seven to one.

337
00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:20,800
Speaker 5: I would have been interested for sure on Steph. Let's

338
00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:24,080
Speaker 5: move on to quarter two. Certainly more intrigue here, not

339
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,680
Speaker 5: quite expecting that maybe when you see the name of

340
00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:31,360
Speaker 5: the top of the quarter. But Novak, I hate to

341
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,960
Speaker 5: say this because I will regret it and he'll make

342
00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:35,320
Speaker 5: me eat these words in a week and a half.

343
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Speaker 5: But when's the last time he came into a major

344
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Speaker 5: this vulnerable? Because it feels like it's been a long

345
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Speaker 5: time and he comes into this quarter and it feels like,

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Speaker 5: you know, rube Lev is playing maybe the best tennis

347
00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:49,360
Speaker 5: of his life right now at the moment. But again,

348
00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:53,080
Speaker 5: like you know, the market not great number for mister

349
00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:55,160
Speaker 5: Rublev to make a run all the way to the Semis,

350
00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 5: and you know, in a matchup potentially you know, five

351
00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,280
Speaker 5: to one on rube Lev, Karen hatchin Off twelve to one,

352
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Speaker 5: Alejandro Vitevich Pakina eight sixteen to one, hube Haircatch twenty

353
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Speaker 5: to one, Google Umbar thirty two to one. It's a

354
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Speaker 5: pretty uninspiring quarter overall. So how do you feel about

355
00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 5: Djokovic here? Are we going to laugh at ourselves in

356
00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:16,840
Speaker 5: two weeks when he wins this tournament and say Why

357
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:18,400
Speaker 5: didn't we bet him plus two fifty when he would

358
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 5: play himself into form or is this more of a

359
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:24,000
Speaker 5: I'm legitimately concerned about Djokovic avery.

360
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Speaker 1: What do you think?

361
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:29,680
Speaker 2: Man? It's a really tough one in this situation. As

362
00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:33,440
Speaker 2: Gil has taught me more than anyone, Djokovic likes to

363
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:37,800
Speaker 2: play himself into fitness, most importantly on the clay. But

364
00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,840
Speaker 2: these are serious injury injury concerns. I think you saw

365
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,240
Speaker 2: real big issues with the forehand serve. Speed was down

366
00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,640
Speaker 2: in Bonia, Luke and Monte Carlo. He looked alright in Rome,

367
00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:49,240
Speaker 2: but he was still wearing the sleeve for a decent

368
00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:52,320
Speaker 2: percentage of that and he just doesn't look comfortable. You

369
00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:56,920
Speaker 2: saw Holgar Run really take advantage of his vulnerability beating

370
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,480
Speaker 2: Djokovic what he did his best, which is those long, long,

371
00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:03,080
Speaker 2: lusting kind of baseline rallies, and we're the only player

372
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Speaker 2: that can do that. I don't think it plus two

373
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Speaker 2: to fifty. I'm touching Novak, especially when he could get

374
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Speaker 2: into a battle with Carlos. Carlos beat him in a

375
00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:13,320
Speaker 2: coin toss fifty to fifty match in Madrid last year.

376
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:16,760
Speaker 2: But those are much different conditions than here. Nonetheless, I

377
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:19,200
Speaker 2: would not be touching Novak, and I actually said last

378
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 2: time around, I can't stomach the price on Novak at

379
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:24,200
Speaker 2: the Australian Open, even though he'll he'll punish me, and

380
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Anthony, He'll he'll do it again to

381
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 2: us and we'll be looking back, you know, back on

382
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 2: our face.

383
00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:30,280
Speaker 3: But I just can't touch it.

384
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,160
Speaker 5: I mean, I thought the ab injury was kind of fake,

385
00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:36,359
Speaker 5: that he had, like if a thigh injury rather at

386
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,959
Speaker 5: the Australian Open. Like I wasn't overly concerned about that.

387
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:43,359
Speaker 5: This feels considerably more serious than what happened there.

388
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 1: I think the bigger deal here is that this isn't

389
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:54,119
Speaker 1: the Australian Open, and this isn't Wimbledon, where I've on

390
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:58,439
Speaker 1: clay okay. Novak has post his physical prime and he

391
00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:01,160
Speaker 1: used to be a guy who had better shot tolerance,

392
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:05,280
Speaker 1: better fitness, better consistency than everybody, and you know, grinding

393
00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:08,800
Speaker 1: him down was just it was not a viable path

394
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 1: to victory. It has been now for a while, and

395
00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:15,119
Speaker 1: we've seen that in the Medvedev head to head and

396
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 1: this Zverev head to head. Some of the guys who

397
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:19,199
Speaker 1: are able to go back in and back end with them,

398
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 1: drag out rallies. He's not a cardio monster anymore. And

399
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,879
Speaker 1: on clay, what he's really needed to be successful, and

400
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,439
Speaker 1: this was the big factor in twenty twenty one. He

401
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,119
Speaker 1: needs to build up his forehand into a big, heavy

402
00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 1: beast of a forehand, which he has the ability to do.

403
00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,480
Speaker 1: He was doing that in Australia earlier this year, but

404
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,639
Speaker 1: it seems like the elbow was probably not going to

405
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,399
Speaker 1: allow him to really have his best forehand at this

406
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 1: year's role on Garos, and as a result, again I

407
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,480
Speaker 1: don't think eighty percent Djokovic can win the title here.

408
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 1: I do think eighty percent Djokovic can win Australian Opens

409
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 1: and win Wimbledon's and that's the major difference. I do

410
00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:01,879
Speaker 1: think the elbow continues to be a thing like avery.

411
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 1: You kind of laid out a bunch of good evidence

412
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,959
Speaker 1: for that. I would say. Additionally, he took a painkiller

413
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:11,159
Speaker 1: in the first set against Tolgaruna. In that loss to Holger,

414
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 1: we know that Novak doesn't want to take painkillers, so

415
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:18,359
Speaker 1: the elpo is not it's not there, and it's a

416
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,320
Speaker 1: problematic injury for him, especially because there's been a history

417
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 1: with it, So I think the way to play Djokovic

418
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 1: from a betting standpoint, if he plays Martan Fusovich first round,

419
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 1: I would take a shot at Fucevich. If he plays

420
00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 1: Alejandro Drivitovic Vakina third round, I would take a shot.

421
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 1: There are the odds gonna be. Is it probably a

422
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 1: losing bet, Yeah, but it's a total long shot, and

423
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 1: I think they those two in particular would be worth taking.

424
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 1: Alex Kavasovich first round. No.

425
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,520
Speaker 2: On that note of well Kina, I will say I

426
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 2: do think he's a little bit vulnerable against Arthur Feast

427
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,640
Speaker 2: in the first round. I don't necessarily love Arthur Feast

428
00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,200
Speaker 2: when he needs to have a lot of shot tolerance

429
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,959
Speaker 2: and really have the ability to play twenty thirty ball rallies.

430
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 2: But I've been impressed with him in Leon even when

431
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 2: in that first set before Emo was defaulted in leone.

432
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,639
Speaker 2: So I would say that at plus three sixty, I

433
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 2: do love Feasts in the first round. If Kina had

434
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 2: a decent run in twenty twenty one reach the quarters,

435
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,360
Speaker 2: I believe be rude in five sets, which is particularly impressive.

436
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 2: But outside of that, I think he has a first

437
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 2: round of first round in a second round. So not

438
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 2: a player that is well a player that is truly

439
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 2: capable of breaking down mentally, especially when you consider that

440
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 2: Feast is going to be firing up this French crowd.

441
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 3: He really loves to get the crowd involved.

442
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 2: If you could do it in Rome and really use

443
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,119
Speaker 2: it to it to advantage, I mean, imagine what he

444
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:37,920
Speaker 2: can do with this KRP.

445
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 1: That's just a must watch match, Like everybody needs to

446
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: watch that totally. I'm with you on that, I do think.

447
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 1: But for Novak, I think the first three rounds is

448
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 1: really where the draw is tough, and then after that

449
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 1: it gets quite a bit easier. I mean, Andre Rubelev

450
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 1: and Karen Hatchanov are both matchedups that have been really

451
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,159
Speaker 1: good for Novak. Dubundo, you want to go to kind

452
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 1: of quarter bets here because I think Hatchanov at eleven

453
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 1: o one is the play here because you know ruby

454
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 1: Lev He's got a positive headet against rub Lev four

455
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 1: to three, and Andre his baseline patterns, all of them

456
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 1: are kind of predicated around breaking down the righty backhand.

457
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 1: He struggles to do that against Hatchanov, So I see

458
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 1: that just getting hard for both players. Long, physical five

459
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 1: setter Karen Hatchanov, who's made back to back major semi

460
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 1: finals on hard courts but has been so consistent at

461
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 1: roll on Garris it's like a fourth round every year. Automatic.

462
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: It seems you back him in those tough, physical five setters,

463
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:50,880
Speaker 1: and confidence wise, pressure wise, the it's all on rube Lev,

464
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 1: who just is still looking for that breakthrough at a slam,

465
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 1: and Hatchanov is kind of on this great run in

466
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,040
Speaker 1: the same breath, so I feel like calf has a

467
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 1: good chance there. And then with Djokovic again, I think

468
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 1: there's some vulnerability obviously, but if it gets to that.

469
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 1: Now Novak has beaten Hatchanov seven times in a row,

470
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 1: but Karen is a guy who wants who could make

471
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 1: things physical and kind of hanging the backhand and backhand,

472
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 1: and you know, if Novak doesn't have his offensive tools firing,

473
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,639
Speaker 1: then Hatchanov becomes someone who's really tough to deal with.

474
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's kind of my reaction.

475
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:28,879
Speaker 5: Originally, when I looked at the draw, I thought, Okay,

476
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 5: you know, if ruby Lev and Hatchanov are price similarly,

477
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 5: I'll take rube Lev. But given the fact that rube

478
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 5: Lev's down at you know, five to one, you can

479
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 5: get Hatchenov twelve to one a FanDuel, I think that

480
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 5: if they're in a deep fifth.

481
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 4: Set, who do I trust more? That's not even close.

482
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 5: Like I'll take Hatchanov's mental game in a long match

483
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 5: over over Rublev any day of the week. I have

484
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 5: no interest in dividage for Kina or her catch the

485
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 5: next two guys on the list.

486
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 4: I agree with Arthur Fist. He's quickly becoming my new guy.

487
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,719
Speaker 5: I love the Frenchman as always, but Arthur Feist's on

488
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 5: the come up and definitely will betting him. He's plus

489
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 5: four fifty in the first round against ADF. First set,

490
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 5: money line, full game, full match, money line for sure

491
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 5: for me on Arthur Feace. But yeah, I think that

492
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 5: Hatchanov is the way to go here. If you're so

493
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 5: adamantly against Djokovic, I think Hatchanov is the best way

494
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,159
Speaker 5: to play it. You know, like there's just not a

495
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 5: ton to really threaten Novak unless the injury really is

496
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 5: that bad, like you said, g and he goes down

497
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,199
Speaker 5: to a Fuksovich or if ADF you know, gets that

498
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 5: far which I don't know that he will, so I

499
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 5: think this is a really fascinating quarter. But if he

500
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:35,439
Speaker 5: really just hinders on how much is Djokovic really healthier,

501
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 5: not that will decide what happens here. But I think

502
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 5: Hatchanov would be my play here at twelve to one

503
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 5: as well.

504
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll push back a little bit on the on

505
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 2: the rouble of Chanov discussion, because I do think Rublev

506
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 2: is at this price for a reason, because he's been

507
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 2: so strong on slower, heavier clay courts this year and

508
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 2: Bonie Luca particularly, and also in Monte Carlo where he

509
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 2: won his first Master's title and beat Holgar Run, who's

510
00:24:58,040 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 2: one of the best players in.

511
00:24:58,920 --> 00:24:59,719
Speaker 3: This type of service.

512
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 2: Lost to Humfman in Rome, not too concerned about that.

513
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 2: It was another big stretch of play for him as well,

514
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 2: and also lost to Chanav in Madrid, but again that

515
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 2: was a deep tiebreaker get a six to four lead

516
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 2: in he easily could have taken that. And I also

517
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,400
Speaker 2: wouldn't put too much stock in in a place that's

518
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 2: heavily predicated on elevation.

519
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,439
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Speaker 4: Let's go out of the third quarter here.

540
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 5: This is the most fascinating quarter for me from a perspective,

541
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 5: potential rematch of last year when Rude and Rune had

542
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,160
Speaker 5: their matchup that you know, Rune wasn't quite ready Runo

543
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 5: wasn't quite ready. For now he sort of has made

544
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 5: his leap into that next echelon.

545
00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 4: He beat him just a couple weeks ago.

546
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,439
Speaker 5: Where do we stand on the fact that Holger is

547
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 5: now priced is a pretty solid favorite over Rude to

548
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 5: get out of this quarter, And what is your best

549
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 5: bet for quarter three?

550
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:09,919
Speaker 1: We'll start with Avery.

551
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 3: Yeah.

552
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 2: I really don't typically like going with chalk, especially in

553
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 2: this type of situation which the quarterbet, but I have

554
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 2: tons of faith in Ruin at this point. I think

555
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 2: he's a big match player. I think he's ready made

556
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 2: the quarters. Last year, even at plus one twenty five,

557
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:25,439
Speaker 2: I still see a little bit of value because I

558
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 2: just don't think mentally Rude will be able to take

559
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 2: him at this point, especially because he was in such

560
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 2: an advantageous position against Run setting a break in Rome

561
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 2: and wasn't able to get it done. I think Run's

562
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 2: gonna come in with a ton of confidence. I think

563
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,640
Speaker 2: he's one of the best clay quarters in the world

564
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:43,199
Speaker 2: at this point, undoubtedly, and I'm not really threatened by

565
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 2: anyone else that's in this quarter. Taylor Fritz does not

566
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 2: really pose much of a problem on this type of surface,

567
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 2: even though he's made some strides on clay for sure,

568
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 2: Sir Undilo perhaps, but over a best of five match,

569
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 2: I would trust run all day, and Yari off of altitude,

570
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 2: I wouldn't really back him in that spot as well.

571
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 2: So perhaps bias is a little bit of a tricky

572
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 2: second round. He'll wear him down a little bit. And

573
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 2: Rooum does struggle with fitness at times, but I really

574
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 2: have a lot of faith in him to come through here.

575
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, me too. I mean he had the ideal clay

576
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 1: court season. You look at the two Masters events that

577
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,919
Speaker 1: best simulate Roland Garos, it's Monte Carlo in Rome as

578
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,479
Speaker 1: opposed to Madrid, and Rudemate was in the final in

579
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 1: both had chances to win both finals. But yeah, fatigue

580
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:35,200
Speaker 1: was the main determining factor in both of those finals,

581
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 1: which is something to watch out for. But is it

582
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 1: something to watch out for pre quarter final or post

583
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 1: quarter final? That's the question. Probably Post obviously had the

584
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: Munich title as well. After Monte Carlo and Avery said,

585
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: big match player. That's the thing. Normally, for a player

586
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 1: who has never really had this these kinds of expectations

587
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 1: playing a Major in his life, normally I'd be a

588
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 1: little bit concerned about that. But this guy just plays

589
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: better in bigger matches. He's seven and two to start

590
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 1: his career against top five opposition, which is absolutely insane.

591
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 1: And you know, I just really like the way he's defending,

592
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 1: making things things difficult on his opponents, point in and

593
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 1: point out. He brings offensive tools to the table as well.

594
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 1: So I like Holger. I like him a lot. My

595
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 1: other bet here would be Jan Leonard's Struff, and this

596
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 1: is not and he's plus let's go twenty five to one.

597
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: I see thirty to one and thirty one okay, okay,

598
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 1: so thirty to one. I like Struf. Look it's not

599
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 1: the Madrid final. I don't want to be too into

600
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: the Madrid result. You shouldn't be, you know, you should

601
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 1: never overreact to Madrid results. But there's more here, like

602
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 1: with Struf. Rolong Garris's actually his best Major. He's been

603
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,239
Speaker 1: in the fourth round twice. He made the quarterfinal this

604
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,239
Speaker 1: year in Monte Carlo as well, came through qualifying. I

605
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: really love his draw here, and I know that if

606
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 1: he's feeling confident, he's going to be a total horror

607
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 1: to play against. If you look at Casperude, the players

608
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 1: who Casper has lost to, who's the top seed, he'd

609
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 1: be the most likely, you know, player to stand in

610
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 1: Strufe's way. Strufe is exactly the player that's been giving

611
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: Rude fits. Just hyper aggressive offensive net rushing, big power,

612
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 1: and Rude has just played too defensively to put these

613
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 1: these high level offensive players. You know, he hasn't forced

614
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: those guys to play enough defense, and that's been the

615
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 1: big problem for Casperud, who also has a ton of

616
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 1: pressure trying to defend these finalist points. So it's really

617
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 1: Strufe who's my favorite bet in this quarter now we're talking.

618
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 4: I put him on the list.

619
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,959
Speaker 5: I could not believe the form that he's been in.

620
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 5: I mean, like you said, it wasn't just the run

621
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 5: in Madrid. I mean he went to the Monte Carlo,

622
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 5: he beat Rude there, he beat de Manure easily, you know,

623
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 5: roll through Savoy like. He's been beating top fifty guys

624
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 5: consistently and pretty comfortably on clay courts this year. You know,

625
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 5: of course, he makes it all the way to the finals,

626
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 5: takes a set off Carlos, beats Steph in the process,

627
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 5: rolled Lorenzo Sonigo in that matchup too. Like, there's been

628
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 5: a lot to like about his showing and the draw

629
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 5: isn't that bad. I mean, Tommy Paul is the big

630
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 5: seed in his little section here. He's barely a favorite

631
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 5: against Aleheca in the first round.

632
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:31,719
Speaker 4: That's tricky.

633
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 5: I think whoever comes out of that is going to

634
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 5: be my person to make to the fourth round. And

635
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 5: then you know, potential matchup with Rude, he's beaten him,

636
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 5: and you know, at thirty to one, I don't hate

637
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 5: the look there for him, especially since one of the

638
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 5: biggest hurdles it looks like is going to be that

639
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 5: first round matchup, because I think he'd be a favorite

640
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 5: over Tommy Paul if they were to meet in the

641
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 5: third round. I'm actually quite confident of that. And so

642
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 5: you know, Strufe at thirty to one is my favorite

643
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 5: long shot bet period.

644
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 4: I feel like I remember watching this.

645
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 5: Guy on like twenty twelve, so he's been around forever

646
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 5: and he's finally you know, having a great run for himself.

647
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 5: So you know, good for him, and he is my

648
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,239
Speaker 5: favorite long shot in this region. Do we think, you know,

649
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 5: if Rude Rune were to happen again, what chance do

650
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 5: you give Rud of winning that? Because I was pretty

651
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 5: surprised to see Holger as the true and clear favorite

652
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 5: in this quarter.

653
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 1: There just hasn't been a great win for Casper all

654
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 1: year on any surface. And yes, it looked pretty good

655
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 1: in Rome. The Sirrindola winning the quarterfinals is a is

656
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 1: a decent win, but that's literally his best win of

657
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 1: the season, and that shouldn't be his best win of

658
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 1: the season. I'm talking by rank at least, and it's

659
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: a confidence problem. So the fact that he was up

660
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 1: a set and a break against Runa the first time

661
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 1: in that Rome semi final, okay, great, but what happened

662
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 1: after that doesn't inspire confidence for me. So I just

663
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 1: I don't trust him.

664
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, he's somewhat in no worry for me, just like

665
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 5: high floor, low ceiling kind of guy.

666
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 2: But to his credit, he did you know, you can

667
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 2: only beat who's in front of you, and that's we

668
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 2: did the French Open last year and so we did

669
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 2: the US Open last year.

670
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 3: Wasn't able to get either of them to the finish line.

671
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 2: You know, again some formidable opponents, particularly Rafa where he

672
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 2: went into the match with zero confidence, and against Alcarez,

673
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 2: where perhaps he did have a little bit of confidence

674
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 2: and stability having made a final before, but kind of

675
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 2: broke down when when Carlos was clutching the big moments.

676
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 2: Beyond that, he doesn't really have any big wins despite

677
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 2: the fact that he's been able to get by those opponents.

678
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 2: I don't believe he was an underdog in any of

679
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 2: the matches and route to US Open final or French

680
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 2: Open final. He beat chill Itch whereas a favorite he

681
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 2: beat run as a favorite.

682
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 1: So no US Open Barretini, I think.

683
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 2: He was slightly favorite Speratini. That was a material that

684
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 2: was not in the best of form, even though he

685
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 2: played well there.

686
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 3: So nonetheless, he only has two fifty titles to his name.

687
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 2: There's there's really a reason for that, and that's not

688
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 2: to you know, discredit what he's done. He was a

689
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,320
Speaker 2: match away from being number one in the world somehow

690
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 2: if he beat Carlos, but I'd probably price it at

691
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 2: ruin minus two hundred minus two twenty. I wouldn't touch it,

692
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 2: but I'd be pretty surprised if if Rud beat him.

693
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 1: Also, I just want to throw in here that the

694
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 1: draw is not good for Casper at all. Bublick qualify

695
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 1: our first round, so I'm not sure who will play

696
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 1: Bublick second round. They went to a third set tie

697
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:39,440
Speaker 1: break in Rome. Botic probably in the next Botic beat

698
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 1: him earlier in the clay swing. He got revenge a

699
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 1: week later. Third round, could be Oh, it's a well,

700
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 1: that would be Botic his third round, or maybe triple

701
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 1: z or maybe live at triple z jang jijen true

702
00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 1: fourth round. So what I see there is weapons, Like

703
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,799
Speaker 1: there's a lot of weapons for him to contend with

704
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:04,439
Speaker 1: every single round.

705
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 5: Let's move on to the quarter we've discussed earlier. All

706
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 5: three of us had our best bet in this quarter.

707
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:11,919
Speaker 5: I ad Zverev plus seven to fifty to win the quarter,

708
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 5: Gil like Medvedev to win the whole tournament at nine

709
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 5: to one. Avery is riding with Born and again.

710
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 4: Born at Chorch.

711
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:21,359
Speaker 5: We can just kind of touch on this quarter since

712
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 5: we talked about it again diving in here. We haven't

713
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 5: discussed Yanick Sinner yet. I feel like we need to

714
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 5: give him his due any thoughts on Yanna coming into

715
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 5: this tournament and any other bets in this quarter you

716
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 5: guys want to get to before we quickly touch on

717
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 5: the women's and get out here.

718
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,919
Speaker 1: I'm really confident that Yanick is gonna be in the quarterfinal.

719
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 1: His draws nice and man. His history at Roland Garris

720
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 1: is pretty awesome. He made the quarterfinal and his debut

721
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 1: lost in a doll, made the fourth round his next

722
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 1: year playing lost in a doll again. Last year he

723
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 1: was about to be in the quarterfinal. I mean, he

724
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 1: was crushing Andre Rubelev and then he heard his knee

725
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 1: and he had to retire from that match. So he

726
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:06,799
Speaker 1: really hasn't suffered a real defeat to anyone, not Raf

727
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 1: and Nadal. The problem is with all the scar tissue

728
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 1: that he has, I don't really trust his nerve management

729
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,319
Speaker 1: in a big match once we get to let's say

730
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 1: a quarterfinal against Medvedev or maybe a semi final moving forward,

731
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: I was really hoping. I think what Yanick really needed

732
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:25,879
Speaker 1: was a big result at some point over the course

733
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:27,880
Speaker 1: of the clay swing for him to come into this

734
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 1: major and feel confident enough in the big moments to

735
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 1: come through and play his best tennis. That's my read

736
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 1: on it.

737
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I talked to it earlier. Love Chorge in this

738
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 2: quarter at fourteenth to one. Another thing I'd be on

739
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 2: the lookout for. Last time around at the Australian Open,

740
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,239
Speaker 2: I talked about Brooksby in the second round against Rudd

741
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 2: and that was just about the only thing I was

742
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 2: correct on. But nonetheless he was able to get that done.

743
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:51,799
Speaker 2: If we see Mulchan in the second round against Vera

744
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 2: at four to one or better, I would be all

745
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:57,280
Speaker 2: over that because Mulchan has a history of succeeding as slams.

746
00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 2: He's shown that not the US Open, but at the

747
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,959
Speaker 2: Australian Open he got a huge win over stand with Rinka.

748
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 2: This is the perfect surface for him, this slow, heavy clay.

749
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 2: Zverev is a counterpuncher who loves to absorb pace, and

750
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:10,800
Speaker 2: that's I think why he was really successful against Carlos

751
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 2: on the surface. When you try and hit through him,

752
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 2: he's very capable of defending. What I will say is

753
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 2: Mulchan's not going to give that to him at all.

754
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 2: He's going to be happy to go forty ball fifty ball.

755
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:24,719
Speaker 2: Rallies chest those nerves from Zverev and uh we know

756
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:26,719
Speaker 2: what can happen when when when Zverev is a little

757
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 2: bit nervy. So Mulchan four to one or better against Verav.

758
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: I love Milcham. Won't be hitting much pace, that's for sure.

759
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 4: I like that.

760
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:40,720
Speaker 1: I well, I'm I'm of he's always about nerve management

761
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:41,240
Speaker 1: for Zverev.

762
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 3: Yeah.

763
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 1: No, I think you had good logic at the top,

764
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 1: Dbundo about about Zverev where it's like, Okay, he's not

765
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 1: going to be feeling you know, the weight of expectation

766
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: as much this year. That said, he is defending semi

767
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 1: final points, so that might offset some the kind of

768
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 1: care free vibes that you're hoping he comes with the

769
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 1: draw is good. And what has happened with Zverev this

770
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 1: year for the most part, outside of a couple of

771
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,840
Speaker 1: weird losses like one of Taro Daniel another one of

772
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,839
Speaker 1: Christopher O'Connell, what's mostly happened is Verev has been a

773
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 1: lower seed and he has faced you know, top guns

774
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: early on a round of sixteen at least, and he

775
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 1: hasn't been able to win those matches. So the big thing,

776
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 1: the big stat that I'm kind of tracking with Zverev

777
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 1: is when is he going to beat a top twenty player.

778
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:33,919
Speaker 1: He's zero five against top twenty players this year.

779
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 5: He might not play a top twenty player until potentially

780
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 5: the fourth round though, Yeah, absolutely right, So hopefully that happens,

781
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 5: and then you know, Centner and Zverev and Sinner gets

782
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,919
Speaker 5: a little tight. We'll see what happens, could happen, We'll see.

783
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 5: That's gonna be a fun quarter for sure. Let's switch

784
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:52,760
Speaker 5: to the women's here real quickly. Igish Fiatec is minus

785
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 5: one thirty odds on to win the tournament again. Has

786
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:01,720
Speaker 5: dominated this tournament now she's dominated on clay.

787
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 4: She has been a little more vulnerable this year. The

788
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:06,359
Speaker 4: three big favorites to.

789
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 5: Win this tournament the only three players at FANDEL with

790
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 5: odds under twenty to one. Elena b Bakina, Arena Sablancahigash

791
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 5: fia Tech. No surprise, they are the winners of the

792
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 5: last three majors. What do we think about IgA versus

793
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 5: the field? And would you take the Polish woman or

794
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 5: would you go with the field if you had to

795
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,319
Speaker 5: take one? And who if you had any potential long

796
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 5: shot or other pick would you go with If it's

797
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 5: not Igish fia Tech, who has again been the class

798
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:34,880
Speaker 5: of the clay.

799
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 2: I think there are two great numbers on the women's side.

800
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 2: One of those is Cocoa Goff at thirty five to one.

801
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 2: I know we are scared of the forehand. It's really bad. Mechanically,

802
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:47,879
Speaker 2: it is so bad, but she's been working really hard

803
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 2: with Patrick mart Taglu. I think the ceiling is as

804
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 2: high as it can be for her at the French

805
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 2: Open right now compared to their slants. She has a

806
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:57,840
Speaker 2: final from last year where she lost to Ega. She

807
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:00,439
Speaker 2: has a quarter final in twenty twenty one. Re course

808
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 2: really help her. She can really attack off the backhand

809
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:07,839
Speaker 2: wing and I think she's serving well and really counterpunching well,

810
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 2: which is what she she loves to do. I think

811
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 2: that price is really good because she's just a player

812
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 2: when when in form, can be a lot more formidable

813
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 2: than someone when she's really struggling. We saw that the

814
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 2: US Open, how well she can play when when she's

815
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 2: feeling good, and we can see how bad she can

816
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 2: play it, you know, the Australian Open when she was

817
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 2: boat raced by Elena Ostapenko and lack of confidence. The

818
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 2: second one I would look at is Anaesthetia put Upova

819
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 2: at eighty to one. She's a player that I have

820
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 2: a ton of faith and that will rise to the

821
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,280
Speaker 2: top of the game within the next few years. Another

822
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 2: big match player. She can struggle with nerves at times,

823
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 2: for sure, had chances to serve out I believe against

824
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:50,240
Speaker 2: Jessica Pacoley in Miami once or twice. And that being said,

825
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 2: all of her losses on clay this year came to

826
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:56,960
Speaker 2: Sebolenka and Stuttgart, came to kudr Matova twice in Roman

827
00:40:57,000 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 2: Madrid and the latter two where I believe both three

828
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 2: set matches. So she's someone that can thrive on this surface.

829
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,399
Speaker 2: And at eighty to one, you know, we saw how

830
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 2: IgA made a run.

831
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 3: In twenty twenty.

832
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 2: I believe to claim her first Slam and really just

833
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 2: want lights out pot to pot was someone at eighty

834
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:16,479
Speaker 2: to one that I would, you know, toss a little

835
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 2: bit of change on to do that. I would not

836
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 2: take eag against the field just because of her injury concerns.

837
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:23,280
Speaker 3: I have no idea how that thought is feeling.

838
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 5: Potapova is interesting nine to one to win quarter three.

839
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 5: She's in the quarter with Benchic Sachary and Pagoula. We

840
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 5: know about Sakary's nerve management problems. You know you mentioned

841
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 5: the Pagola matchup. You know almost and Pagoula generally, I

842
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 5: think being overvalued in the market as a whole could

843
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:43,400
Speaker 5: be interesting there. And you may have just convinced me

844
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 5: to place that wager just now.

845
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 1: I'll second it. I love Potopova. I think she's playing awesome.

846
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:53,439
Speaker 1: I will say that socker'se nerve management issues generally don't

847
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 1: start until the semi final round, but you know, in

848
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 1: majors a lot of the time it's actually been in

849
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:04,640
Speaker 1: the quarter, so that one can go either way. I

850
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 1: also wouldn't take eag against the field, partially because of

851
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 1: the injury, partially because I do feel like Sabolanca is

852
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 1: there now. One thing I disagree with is Sablanca and

853
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 1: Rebakkena being at the same odds. I think there's a

854
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 1: difference between those two on clay, and Sablanca to me

855
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 1: can hang with with anybody in a neutral baseline rally.

856
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 1: I trust her movement, I love her power with time

857
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 1: on the ball, but I just think she's better on

858
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 1: the run. She moves the ball around the court a

859
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 1: lot better than Ribakena does with kind of the more

860
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 1: linear power. So I'm really in on Sablanca and I

861
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 1: wouldn't mind taking her a plus seven hundred to win

862
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 1: the tournament. My longer shot would be Junction when I mean, look,

863
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,399
Speaker 1: it's not I don't think she's that creative a dark

864
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: horse at this point. We all know she's really talented

865
00:42:55,320 --> 00:43:00,359
Speaker 1: and dangerous. But the forehand is very very special on

866
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,720
Speaker 1: this clay court surface. The weight on it, the rpm

867
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 1: she gets it penetrates through the court, It dictates play,

868
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:11,359
Speaker 1: and you know she's she's really dangerous in every other

869
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:13,799
Speaker 1: area of her game as well to serve. And the

870
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 1: backhand also very big, just enough mobility where I don't

871
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 1: I don't think it'll it'll really take her out of

872
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:24,319
Speaker 1: the running in a big match, doesn't really you know,

873
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 1: hasn't had the real big breakthrough results at the big

874
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 1: events yet, but I do think that time is coming

875
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 1: soon for Jung Shin win. Well, I'm riding with Sabs again.

876
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 1: Had her in Australia, I'm gonna better again at the

877
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 1: French You mentioned Dang sixty five to one at Vando.

878
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 1: If you're that interested in a long shot, I'll be

879
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:44,320
Speaker 1: interested in joining Avery on Potapova. I'm gonna take the

880
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:46,839
Speaker 1: nine to one quarter price. We've just thrown a lot

881
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 1: of bets at you.

882
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,240
Speaker 5: It's been a fun time joining you guys to preview

883
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:53,840
Speaker 5: the French Open. We're hoping to do this once every Slam,

884
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 5: which means we will be back in about a month

885
00:43:56,280 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 5: in June for the Championships Wimbledon, which will be here

886
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:02,760
Speaker 5: before we know it. But first two great weeks onto

887
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 5: the dirt in southwest Paris should be a lot of fun.

888
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 5: Thanks to Avery and Gil for joining me. This has

889
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 5: been the Action Network Podcast, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook.

890
00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

891
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,840
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

892
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:32,759
Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

893
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 5: hundred Gambler