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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough?

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Speaker 3: They're running a gay.

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Speaker 1: So smooth, so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 3: Sisting just glorious.

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Speaker 4: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent

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Speaker 4: effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that?

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Speaker 2: Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why you see your

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Speaker 2: beautiful tiers. Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The wall. It's left to the wide eyed.

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Speaker 4: Drill bibus how old Earth pick that happens.

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Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast from

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Speaker 1: the Action Network. My name is Michael E. Buff and

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Speaker 1: joining me as always are my friend friends and Action

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Speaker 1: colleagues Anthony Dbundo and bj Cunningham and gentlemen. This is

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Speaker 1: a scary week scary weekend for me because there are

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Speaker 1: ten Premier League matches coming and I would say I

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Speaker 1: like probably eight of them from a betting perspective, and

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Speaker 1: as I want to do, most of those bets will

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Speaker 1: be underdogs. I think this is a such a betable board.

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Speaker 1: I am so excited to get into it. And you

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Speaker 1: know what that means. On Monday. We will be looking

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Speaker 1: our wounds, maybe a one and seven to eight weekend,

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Speaker 1: something special like that. But there is only one place

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Speaker 1: to start. Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea or minus one fifty

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Speaker 1: against Tottenham Hotspur, who were plus four to fifty. The

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Speaker 1: draw is plus two ninety five Spurs six six wins,

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Speaker 1: three draws, no losses, seventeen goals for, six goals against,

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Speaker 1: twenty two expected goals for seven point seven expected goals against.

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Speaker 1: In Antonio Conte's nine games in charge in the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: Coming off a highly emotional, crazy comeback win against Leicester City,

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Speaker 1: they were down two to one going to stoppage time,

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Speaker 1: end up scoring two goals in the ninety fourth and

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Speaker 1: ninety seventh minute. I believe to really solidify their place

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Speaker 1: in the top four hunt and now they're going to

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Speaker 1: take out a Chelsea team four wins, seven draws, two losses.

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Speaker 1: In that same span since Conte came to Tottenham, twenty

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Speaker 1: goals for fifteen goals against. We were clamoring for the

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Speaker 1: regression of cup. For this team, it's come. It's come

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Speaker 1: in a pretty big way and now they're taking out

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Speaker 1: a team that is truly on the ascendency. So the

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Speaker 1: question is, Anthony, how much do you think actually separates

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Speaker 1: these two squads in current form and is it reflected

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Speaker 1: in the market.

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Speaker 4: You know, we had this conversation a few weeks ago,

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Speaker 4: right before they played in the Carabo Cup, and I

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Speaker 4: actually thought Spurs were been undervalued in that because I

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Speaker 4: felt as though Chelsea weren't going to play their entire

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Speaker 4: best eleven given the circumstances surrounding their title race chase,

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Speaker 4: and they played a pretty strong team. Spurs played close

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Speaker 4: to their best team and it was not close.

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Speaker 3: Over two legs.

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Speaker 4: Chelsea completely dominated that and I think that has to

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Speaker 4: be taken into consideration here, but it clearly is being

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Speaker 4: taken into consideration. With the NUMBERA were minus one twenty

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Speaker 4: two weeks ago, now they're minus one fifty five. My

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Speaker 4: full strength number is actually pretty close. I make Chelsea

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Speaker 4: minus one forty five at home. So I don't really

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Speaker 4: have a ton on the spread or the money lines

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Speaker 4: in this game. But what I think is interesting is

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Speaker 4: that both teams A scorers lined just minus one ten

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Speaker 4: despite Tottenham being not only posting four and a half

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Speaker 4: expected goals today against Lester and winning that game in

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Speaker 4: very dramatic fashion, but their attack has been absolutely humming

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Speaker 4: since Conte took over, and I don't think that's quite

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Speaker 4: being priced in here, especially when we consider the Chelsea

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Speaker 4: defense continues.

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Speaker 3: To leak goals.

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Speaker 4: They now only kept one clean sheet in their last

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Speaker 4: eleven games, and the XG numbers against suggests that they

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Speaker 4: probably deserve to only about one clean sheet in the

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Speaker 4: last eleven, so they've been struggling defensively. Spurs should be

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Speaker 4: able to get on the board here, but we've also

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Speaker 4: seen how vulnerable this Tottenham makeshift back line that included

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Speaker 4: ten Ganga, Sanchez and Davies today it's really not a

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Speaker 4: top four or five quality back line, so I do

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Speaker 4: think this game will be more open when these are

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Speaker 4: teams played two weeks ago. Again, the second leg, Spurs

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Speaker 4: had three goals varred off and the goal decisions were

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Speaker 4: all correct, but it kind of shows you that Chelsea

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Speaker 4: were riding their luck a little bit, getting a bit

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Speaker 4: fortunate that these guys were just offside, and.

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Speaker 3: So Spurs were close to breaking through.

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Speaker 4: And I do think they will break through here. So

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Speaker 4: I like both teams to score.

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Speaker 1: I just think there are certain situations in a season

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Speaker 1: where you get a great number on a great team

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Speaker 1: and this is one of them. Plus four to fifty.

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Speaker 1: Tottenham is a really good team and they're getting better,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think that they're going to stop getting

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Speaker 1: better under Conte. Right, this is not just going to halt.

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Speaker 1: They're not. I don't think they're just going to plateau.

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Speaker 1: Whereas Chelsea, like, what are they playing for at this

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Speaker 1: point too? I understand this the arrival rematch. They wanted

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Speaker 1: to stop the route. They want to turn their season around.

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Speaker 1: But you're getting four and a half to one on

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Speaker 1: a really really good team against a team that's not

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Speaker 1: Manchester City in the Premier League. So Tottenham for me,

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Speaker 1: man twenty one out of twenty seven points with Conte,

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Speaker 1: that's the second best mark in the Premier League in

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Speaker 1: that span. The only team that's better at man City

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Speaker 1: twelve and zero. Since content came bj Well, the rest

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Speaker 1: of the soccer world was picking their jaw off the

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Speaker 1: floor after the Tottinham come back today. You were not thrilled.

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Speaker 1: As an Arsenal fan and someone who wants to see

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Speaker 1: Arsenal crash into the top four. Do you think there's

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Speaker 1: any value in this one even as a Spurs hater.

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Speaker 2: No, I don't really think so I agree with that. Anthey,

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Speaker 2: I have minus one forty three, so we're both pretty

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Speaker 2: much dead on on this match. It's it's really hard

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Speaker 2: to look away from Tottenham. I totally agree. You know,

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Speaker 2: they've obviously been in fantastic form since Content took over.

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Speaker 2: The two matches in the Carabo Cup do concern me with,

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Speaker 2: you know, Chelsea that first leg they completely dominated Toddam.

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Speaker 2: Totdam didn't have a shot in the first half of

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Speaker 2: the first leg, so that's concerning, and we talk a

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Speaker 2: lot about the Chelsea aggression. Obviously it's come. But if

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Speaker 2: we look at expected gold differential since Content took over,

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Speaker 2: Tottham's at plus eleven point five and Chelsea's at plus eleven.

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Speaker 2: So even though they're not you know, the thirty goals

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Speaker 2: for or four goals against at the beginning of the

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Speaker 2: season like we saw, this is still a really really

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Speaker 2: good Chelsea team and they've been really good at Stanford

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Speaker 2: Bridge plus eleven point four expected goldffronial, which is third

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Speaker 2: best in the Premier League. Given their couple recent downant

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Speaker 2: performances against Tottenham, that's kind of keeping me away from

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Speaker 2: Spurs in this one. So this is a complete pass me.

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Speaker 2: I don't hate both teams to score, yes, at minus

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Speaker 2: one ten, but other than that, I think this is

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Speaker 2: just a pass. And see how Tottenham handles playing a really,

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Speaker 2: really good side, because we've seen they've been able to

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Speaker 2: dominate some of these smaller sides. But you know, they

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Speaker 2: had one match against Liverpool when all of their defenders

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Speaker 2: were out due to COVID and injuries, and then finally

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Speaker 2: a big match against two matches against Chelsea and they falter.

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Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens. It could be another situation

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Speaker 2: where we come out and say, oh, yeah, okay, Chelsea

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Speaker 2: just dominated twice and then they do it a third time,

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Speaker 2: so I'll be like, oh, I can't believe we didn't

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Speaker 2: see that coming. So it's a pass for me.

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Speaker 3: Ten shots for Harry Kane today that is very.

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Speaker 2: League.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't matter. Ten shots in about a one point six.

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Speaker 2: I think the stat patter against bad defenses comes back again. Man,

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Speaker 2: all right, from the top of the table to the

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Speaker 2: size absolute fraud, from the top of.

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Speaker 1: The table to the bottom. Watford plus one oh five

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Speaker 1: hosting Norwich City plus two sixty five. The draw is

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Speaker 1: plus two sixty a relegation six pointer on Friday Night

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Speaker 1: Lights Friday three pm kickoff here for the Hornets at

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Speaker 1: Vicarage Road. Once again, I don't know how you can

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Speaker 1: look away from plus two sixty five in the Tottenham match.

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Speaker 1: I'm betting on Tottenham plus four fifty. I think you're

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Speaker 1: getting a great number two bet on a team in

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Speaker 1: this In this matchup, I'm looking at plus two sixty

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Speaker 1: five and saying, while you're getting a good number a

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Speaker 1: plus two sixty five to bet against a terrible team Watford,

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Speaker 1: and the question and I know Norwich is bad too,

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Speaker 1: perhaps the worst team in the league, but there's not

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Speaker 1: that much between them, I don't think, right, Like, there's

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Speaker 1: a Watford team that ships goals for fun. They can

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Speaker 1: score for sure, but they can't stop people. And when

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Speaker 1: you're taking on a Norwich team that can't score, that

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Speaker 1: could end up being the different. It's right like, can

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Speaker 1: Norch break down west Ham? Probably not, but can they

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Speaker 1: break down Watford? I think so. I mean they just

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Speaker 1: broke down Everton for two goals, So I think Norich

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Speaker 1: you're getting a good number. They're two to two and

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Speaker 1: six win draw loss under Dean Smith, in that same

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Speaker 1: span at Watford's got one win. Still no clean sheets

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Speaker 1: on the season, no clean sheets. They are coming off

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Speaker 1: an impressive like you'll show some moxie draw against Newcastle

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Speaker 1: on the road in another relegation six pointers. So there

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Speaker 1: should like there should be some momentum coming into this

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Speaker 1: game for the Hornets. However, I just don't think you

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Speaker 1: can look away from a plus two sixty five to

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Speaker 1: take them on. It's just this is a really bad

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Speaker 1: team and if you're gonna give me that number on

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Speaker 1: another Premier League team, I'm gonna take it BJ anything

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Speaker 1: for you Canaries and Hornets.

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Speaker 2: No, I'm gonna pass. It's really I.

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Speaker 3: Agree with you.

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Speaker 2: It's really hard to lay plus one oh five with Watford.

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Speaker 2: How bad their defenses, Like you mentioned, they haven't held

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Speaker 2: kept a clean sheet yet this season. They might for

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Speaker 2: the first time against you know, Norwich has been one

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Speaker 2: of the worst offenses in the Premier League. And their

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Speaker 2: match against Everton, I mean yes, which you know they

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Speaker 2: got the back to back goals. One was on a

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Speaker 2: very very sorry Michael hilarious own goal from Michael Keane

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Speaker 2: and then you know, a shot from outside the box.

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Speaker 2: But other than that, you know, Everton pretty much dominated

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Speaker 2: the whole second half of that match. It's Watford. Their

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Speaker 2: offense continues to perform well, you know, especially against bad

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Speaker 2: defenses they put up, you know, one point seven expected

200
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Speaker 2: goals against Newcastle last Saturday, probably got deserved one one draw,

201
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Speaker 2: But you know, the projection is Watford plus one oh

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Speaker 2: four and over under of a two point three three.

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Speaker 2: So if over two and a half goals gets steamed

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Speaker 2: pretty hard, I might end up having to play it

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Speaker 2: under because again, these are still two bottom seven offenses

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Speaker 2: in the Premier League. So that's where I would be

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Speaker 2: kind of leaning towards, kind of watching the market, see

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Speaker 2: how it goes. Maybe if Watford gets steamed, maybe playing Norwich,

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Speaker 2: although I don't see how that's gonna happen. But you know,

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Speaker 2: no Billy Gilmore for Norwich. That obviously hurts them, but

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Speaker 2: they have been getting healthier, they've been getting some of

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Speaker 2: their better players back. Todd can't well back in the

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Speaker 2: lineup obviously helps a lot. So it's pass for me,

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Speaker 2: but I will be watching the market, especially the and

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Speaker 2: potentially maybe playing under two and a half goals.

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Speaker 1: Another team in the relegation scrap coming up next to Everdon.

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Speaker 1: Quick look at the table, Everden sitting at nineteen points

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Speaker 1: in nineteen games, Watford fourteen and nineteen, Norwich City thirteen

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Speaker 1: and twenty one, Newcastle twelve and twenty and Burnley eleven

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Speaker 1: and seventeen games. All right, let's talk about those Toffees

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Speaker 1: baby seven thirty am kickoff on Saturday morning. I haven't

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Speaker 1: been this excited for an Everding match in probably since

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Speaker 1: Carl Ancelotti's first match, honestly, and then because I said

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Speaker 1: COVID then and then kind of put a damper on everything.

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Speaker 1: Goodison Park will be absolutely rocking, I think for Duncan

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Speaker 1: Ferguson's taking over as the caretaker. The Big Scott who

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Speaker 1: great story about him. Two decades ago somebody broke into

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Speaker 1: his house. He beat the bag out of them and

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Speaker 1: just held them there before the cops came and arrested him.

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Speaker 1: And the cops wanted to arrest Big Dunk and he

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Speaker 1: had to prove his case that this guy tried to

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Speaker 1: steal stuff from me and he was protecting his wife

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Speaker 1: and daughter in the house and was cleared of all charges.

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Speaker 1: And he will oversee Everdence plus one sixty five hosting

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Speaker 1: Stephen Girard, Liverpool legend, coming to Goodison Park along with

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Speaker 1: Luca Dean, former Everton player. Sin Villa's plus one seventy

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Speaker 1: the draw is plus two forty. Lukadean thirty five to

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Speaker 1: one for first goal scorer, twelve to one to score

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Speaker 1: at any time. This is how much of a mess

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Speaker 1: evidence been this season. Lukadan, one of their best players,

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Speaker 1: falls out with Rafa Benitez. He sells them to Aston Villa,

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Speaker 1: who you can call a rival for Everton in terms

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Speaker 1: of where they should be finishing in terms of the

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Speaker 1: table at the end of the season. Three days later,

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Speaker 1: they fire Rafa Benitez after he had basically forced their

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Speaker 1: hand to fire the director of football, their sports medicine director,

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Speaker 1: the head of fitness, the head of recruitment. It was

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Speaker 1: just a mess. They built a club in Rafa's image.

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Speaker 1: Now Rafa's gone, thank God, and Everdon this is hard

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Speaker 1: to bake into a number. We all hear like talk

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Speaker 1: about how we bet numbers, not teams. The effort's going

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Speaker 1: to be there for maybe the first time since October.

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Speaker 1: This team's be on the same page. They should be

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Speaker 1: playing a pretty coherent style. Football will be free flowing

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Speaker 1: possession based Pep Guardiola football. No, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: in your face Duncan Ferguson style football. And I think

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Speaker 1: that new manager bounce, as we've talked about, is a

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Speaker 1: real thing, and with Duncan Ferguson, it's pretty hard not

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Speaker 1: to get excited about it. Everton plus one sixty five

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Speaker 1: love it the number against Steven Gerard's aston Villa, who

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Speaker 1: four one to four under windraw loss under Gerard defensively

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Speaker 1: bit all right, but they don't generate that much. So

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Speaker 1: I think this Everton defense, as bad as it's been,

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Speaker 1: should be able to withstand aston Villa's attack, even with

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Speaker 1: Philippe Coptino back in the fold or in the fold Anthony,

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Speaker 1: anything for you at Goodest in part.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I like the under two and a half goals

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Speaker 4: minus one fifteen up to minus one twenty.

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Speaker 3: The one thing here I'm.

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Speaker 4: A little bit more lukewarm on the on the Ferguson

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Speaker 4: era Fergie time at Everton. He had four matches in

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Speaker 4: charge in twenty nineteen as a caretaker. They actually won

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Speaker 4: one and drew three, but the performances were poor. They

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Speaker 4: really struggled. They had no real semblance of tactics. It

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Speaker 4: was kind of just like classic four four to two.

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Speaker 4: We're going to just kind of defend and not really

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Speaker 4: have any plan to attack, and you know, lump the

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Speaker 4: ball forward, you know, and so that I don't love

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Speaker 4: trying to break down what I think is a pretty

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Speaker 4: sturdy Villa defense. I agree with with Michael that you're

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Speaker 4: gonna get a lot of energy, You're gonna a lot

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Speaker 4: a lot of effort. I think that helps the defense more,

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Speaker 4: whereas the attack you kind of need a plan to

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Speaker 4: go after a team that's been as defensively sound as

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Speaker 4: Villa has been under Gerrard.

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Speaker 3: Both defense have also been running really cold.

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Speaker 4: Four goals allowed to Liverpool from two point one expected

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Speaker 4: goals for Everton, then three to Palace on like one

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Speaker 4: and a half expected goals, three to Brighton on about

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Speaker 4: one and a half again, and two to Norwich on

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Speaker 4: like Bjay said earlier, an own goal and then one chance.

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Speaker 3: Where they got in on goal from a counter attack.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not totally down.

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Speaker 4: On this Everton defense quite as much, especially in this spot.

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Speaker 4: The one issue for Villa defensively and for Everton is

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Speaker 4: that both goalkeepers are in the bottom five and shot stopping.

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Speaker 3: Anie Martinezz actually.

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Speaker 4: In twentieth this year after he was one of the

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Speaker 4: best in the league last year.

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Speaker 3: Jordan Pickford's in sixteenth.

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Speaker 4: I think they're both around league average keepers and I

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Speaker 4: think you'd expect some positive regression there as well. So

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Speaker 4: if the shot stopping gets better, these teams wanted to

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Speaker 4: perform as much, there'll be fewer goals in their games.

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Speaker 4: And Villa really struggled with United's press in the first

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Speaker 4: hour of the match.

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Speaker 3: That's how the second goal came for man United in

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Speaker 3: the last match.

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Speaker 4: But like I said, I'm not sure Everton's going to

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Speaker 4: be the team to really expose that.

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Speaker 3: So I think this is going to be two four

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Speaker 3: four Two's.

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Speaker 4: A lot of stale possession, not a lot of attacking chances,

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Speaker 4: and so I'm going to back the under Yeah.

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Speaker 1: The tackles, I think you're gonna be flying in and

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Speaker 1: you said it like this is going to be a

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Speaker 1: Ferguson is going to set this team up to play

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Speaker 1: a simple four to four to two. You know, Tony

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Speaker 1: poulis Sam allerdis style soccer. But that's what this team

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Speaker 1: is basically crying out for at the moment. They just

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Speaker 1: need to simplify everything because they've been told to do.

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Speaker 1: They've had six managers over the past five years who

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Speaker 1: think about all these players. Their heads are probably mush

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Speaker 1: from trying to figure out where I'm supposed to be

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Speaker 1: when I'm supposed to be there. I also, like, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's a little dubious now because of what happened with

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Speaker 1: the arsenal thing that we talked about on on actionnetwork

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Speaker 1: dot com about the potential match fixing with the yellow

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Speaker 1: card prop But if you can find yellow card props

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Speaker 1: at your sportsbook, the Everden Ones just hammer away because

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Speaker 1: Duncan Ferguson is going to have these guys lashing into

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Speaker 1: tackles BJ Duncan time.

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Speaker 2: Come on, Yeah, I love I love the Toffees here, Michael,

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Speaker 2: this is a great this is probably honestly, this is

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Speaker 2: probably the best spot ever since had this season so far, so,

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Speaker 2: to quote Michael Leaboff, the monster is gone and now

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Speaker 2: and now the Toffees get a new manager, bounce and

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Speaker 2: they're finally pretty much fully healthy for like the first

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Speaker 2: time since the second match of the season Dominique Calvert

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Speaker 2: Lewin where Charliston and Yurimina are all going to be

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Speaker 2: back in the lineup on Saturday. I think we forgot

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Speaker 2: how capable and actually pretty good this Everton team is

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Speaker 2: when all those guys are healthy, especially in attack. Dating

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Speaker 2: back to last season, when Dominie Calvert Lewin and rich

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Speaker 2: Arlisson are in the lineup together, Everton averages one point

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Speaker 2: four to three expected goals per match. When the two

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Speaker 2: don't play together or just one of them is playing,

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Speaker 2: they only average point nine to eight expected goals per match.

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Speaker 2: So it's a very very big boost and a very

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Speaker 2: big difference with both of them in the lineup. Aston Villa,

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Speaker 2: they have been improving and they did improve their squad

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Speaker 2: in the transfer market, but this is still a team

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Speaker 2: with some flaws. First off, the one way to beat

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Speaker 2: Everton is to press them relentlessly. Aston Villa is not

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Speaker 2: really that team. Their fifteenth and passed per defensive action

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Speaker 2: in fourteenth in precious for ninety. Aston Villa offensively hasn't

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Speaker 2: really been that effective since Stephen Girard took over, considering

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Speaker 2: and only averaging one point zero eight expected goals per

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Speaker 2: match in his nine matches in charge. Plus Everton getting

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Speaker 2: Yuri Minaback is massive for them with him in the lineup.

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Speaker 2: Evertson only allows one point one two expected goals per match.

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Speaker 2: With out of the lineup they allow around one point

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Speaker 2: nine in spendules for a match. So I love Everton

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Speaker 2: in the spot. I have them projected at plus one

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Speaker 2: twenty one. So give me drawno Bett at home at

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Speaker 2: minus one ten and let's go Fergets and bring home

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Speaker 2: Moost three points.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let me take a deep breath and then we'll

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Speaker 1: move on to Manchester United ten am kickoff there minus

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Speaker 1: one ten hosting west Ham plus two ninety the draws

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Speaker 1: plus two eighty. Big Thomas Frank summed it up pretty

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Speaker 1: well after Brentford and Manchester United today where he said

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Speaker 1: that they absolutely smashed United Brentford, that is, smash United

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Speaker 1: in the first half and they were unlucky not to

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Speaker 1: score three goals. He was rattling off how many big

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Speaker 1: chances they created, et cetera, and I tend to agree

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Speaker 1: with him. But then United just kind of found their

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Speaker 1: form and a little bit there it was. I guess

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Speaker 1: you could say United was really good in the moments

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Speaker 1: that they needed to be good, and Marcus Rashford especially,

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Speaker 1: and that's how they were getting results early in the season.

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Speaker 1: You know, they played to like these kind of messy

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Speaker 1: games and then when they needed a moment of magic,

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Speaker 1: Bruno Fernandez or Christiano Ronaldo, whoever would provide it. Rashford

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Speaker 1: was one today. That doesn't really inspire much confidence to

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Speaker 1: light minus one ten against a west Ham team that, yes,

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Speaker 1: trending down but pretty good bilow spot, I would say

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Speaker 1: in ed Old Trafford. West Ham's three zero and three

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Speaker 1: wind draw loss over the last six thirteen goals for

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Speaker 1: eleven goals against, so it's four total goals per game.

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Speaker 1: With the United's defensive troubles, you could see some reasoning

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Speaker 1: for and over, but I think this game has chaos

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Speaker 1: right and all over it, and I think that will

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Speaker 1: lend itself to some value. On the dog. West Ham

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Speaker 1: near three to one maybe ticks up a little bit

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Speaker 1: with coming off that Manchester United performance. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be on the Hammers. Another underdog for me this weekend

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Speaker 1: is going to be pain trained. Man, give me the Hammers. Anthony,

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Speaker 1: You've been down sour on this west Ham team even

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Speaker 1: when they were good. Even when they were good, you

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Speaker 1: were down on them. Are you kind of changing your

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Speaker 1: tune for this one?

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Speaker 3: I don't remember being down on them.

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Speaker 4: Oh, I joined you guys on those underdogs when they

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Speaker 4: beat Chelsea and Liverpool. But well yeah, I was up

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Speaker 4: on them then and then I cooled them and now

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Speaker 4: I'm back.

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Speaker 3: Baby, give me the Hammers on the road.

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Speaker 4: Look what you mentioned about man United not really playing

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Speaker 4: well for an hour and then like finding the moment

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Speaker 4: of magic. That's the definition of luck box And Thomas

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Speaker 4: Frank every word he said today was one hundred percent right.

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Speaker 4: If you haven't seen his comments, go back and watch them.

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Speaker 4: They dominated the first hour of the match. They didn't

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Speaker 4: take their chances, and even the commentator, the announcer tried

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Speaker 4: to push him a little bit and say, oh, it was.

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Speaker 3: To hey, I'm making the saves and don't get to

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Speaker 3: take your chances.

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Speaker 4: And he even said, you know, you can talk about

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Speaker 4: taking your chances or that shit, but it's football paraphrasing

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Speaker 4: sort of.

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Speaker 3: Frank's right. And we'll get to Brentford in a minute.

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Speaker 4: But as far as this match goes, Manchester United looked

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Speaker 4: extremely vulnerable against teams who are willing to press them,

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Speaker 4: get physical with them, make them run. West Ham has

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Speaker 4: struggled as a favorite of late because their defense has

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Speaker 4: been struggling.

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Speaker 3: They've been more vulnerable in.

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Speaker 4: Transition, but I think they're very well suited to match

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Speaker 4: up with Manchester United. They caused United a lot of

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Speaker 4: p albums earlier in the season when these two sides

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Speaker 4: met at the London Stadium. It was famously a late

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Speaker 4: goal by Jesse Lingard and then a Mark Noble got

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Speaker 4: subbed on to take a penalty and stoppage time and

435
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 4: missed the penalty. But the game was very even otherwise,

436
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 4: and I think United will be vulnerable yet again in transition.

437
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:17,359
Speaker 4: And I think we're setting up for United to have

438
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 4: probably fifty five sixty percent of the ball.

439
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 3: And then do very little with it.

440
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:22,920
Speaker 4: And that's the kind of style of play that west

441
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,879
Speaker 4: Ham is very comfortable playing. They've been very comfortable beating

442
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 4: these teams like Liverpool and Chelsea. They beat Spurs in

443
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 4: the first meeting doing the same thing. I think it's

444
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 4: a really good spot to back west Ham plus a

445
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 4: half goal minus one ten and I'll be taking them

446
00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:37,640
Speaker 4: in my underdogs.

447
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,679
Speaker 1: Later Bjay Anthony and I were alluding to being on

448
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:42,919
Speaker 1: west Ham. I also think that the over is a

449
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 1: sensible play here. You're one upping us by putting both

450
00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:46,199
Speaker 1: in your car.

451
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm both over three goals at plus one twenty

452
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 2: and west Ham plus half a goal at minus one ten.

453
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 2: So let's start with the over. So west Ham they're

454
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 2: going to continually probably have to play these title, these

455
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,919
Speaker 2: high scoring type matches. About Kurt Zuma and Angelo Obanna

456
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 2: in the lineup, they have now been without them for

457
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 2: eleven matches and in seven of those matches they've allowed

458
00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 2: one point five to three expected goals per match. When

459
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,120
Speaker 2: either one of them or both are in the lineup,

460
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 2: they only allow one point one to five expected goals match,

461
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 2: so it's a big difference. And with having basically Craig

462
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,439
Speaker 2: Dawson and diap back there, it's just really not working

463
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:26,119
Speaker 2: for west Ham right now. But Manchester United's offense, they

464
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,400
Speaker 2: didn't really do much against Brentford in the first half

465
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 2: and like you said, a couple of more moments of

466
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,640
Speaker 2: magic they put away their two big scoring chances. They

467
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 2: have put up eight point five expected goals in Ralph

468
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:40,199
Speaker 2: Ragnick's six matches in charge, and they have beat up

469
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 2: on a lot of these inferior defenses and this is

470
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 2: probably going to turn into a pretty open game, you know.

471
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 2: Ronaldo made a return to the lineup this week on Wednesday,

472
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:52,880
Speaker 2: so United's offense is still pretty good under Ragnick. Obviously,

473
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 2: the problems lie in defense and defensive transition, and west

474
00:21:56,280 --> 00:22:00,880
Speaker 2: Ham offensively is flying so high right now ten point

475
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 2: seven expected goals created in their last five matches. Jared

476
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 2: Bowen is maybe the most inform attacker in the Premier

477
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 2: League right now. He's got three goals and three assists

478
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 2: in his last five matches. West Ham for the season

479
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 2: is averaging one point five expected goals for match, that's

480
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: fourth best in the Premier League. Now they get to

481
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 2: face a Manchester United defense that just allowed two point

482
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 2: seven expected goals to Brentford, and in Rangnick's six matches

483
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 2: in charge, they've allowed a total of eight point two

484
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 2: expected goals. But the teams they faced are Norwich, Newcastle, Burnley, Wolves,

485
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 2: Aston Villa and Brentford. All of those are in the

486
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 2: bottom twelve of the Premier League and expected goals for

487
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 2: so facing west Ham a top five offense is a massive,

488
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 2: massive step up in competition. So I have three point

489
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 2: twenty four goals projected for this one, so I do

490
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:46,920
Speaker 2: really like the value in over three goals at plus

491
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,360
Speaker 2: one twenty, and I believe I only have Manchester United

492
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 2: projected at around plus one thirty. So I love the

493
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:54,879
Speaker 2: Hammers plus half a goal at minus one ten and

494
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 2: over three goals at plus one twenty, and I might

495
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 2: even be looking to do some type of same game parlay.

496
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 2: I can taking west Ham team total over one and

497
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,639
Speaker 2: a half west Ham money line and over three goals

498
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,160
Speaker 2: because I think has the potential to be a west

499
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,399
Speaker 2: Ham three to two win or maybe even more because

500
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 2: United has looked so lost in defensive transition and they

501
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 2: haven't faced even a decent offense in a Ragnicks, I'm

502
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 2: with you, guys, I love love the Hammers here in

503
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 2: the spot.

504
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 3: Yeah.

505
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 4: I think the way the fixture list set up for

506
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 4: the United at the beginning of the season was that

507
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 4: they got to play a ton of really mediocre to

508
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 4: bad teams early on first ten twelve matches, and there

509
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 4: were cracks but they were getting by and we all said, hey,

510
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 4: look like there's concerns here.

511
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 3: They're going to have issues.

512
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 4: Then they ran and played some good teams and got

513
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 4: blown away and that cost OLA's job. Well, the way

514
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,919
Speaker 4: the fixture list kind of resets you generally play the

515
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:46,880
Speaker 4: teams you played early in the year the second time

516
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 4: through again before you play the second half. I mean,

517
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 4: there's a few that get mixed in, but generally they've

518
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 4: played again a very weak schedule under Ragnick and continue

519
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 4: to not put up good numbers, especially away from home,

520
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 4: but even at home the performance is not been particularly inspiring.

521
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 4: So I'm very concerned and I'm starting to ring some

522
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 4: alarm bells again. They've got a pretty easy run after this.

523
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,119
Speaker 4: They've got Burnley, Southampton and Leeds, which most of those

524
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 4: are generally good matchups for them, but there's a City

525
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 4: Tottenham Liverpool, Champions League Leicester run coming up that in

526
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 4: February that's going to get really really interesting for Ragnik

527
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 4: and this team.

528
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 1: Another ten am kickoff Brentford plus two h five, coming

529
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 1: off that performance where they smashed Manchester United in a

530
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 1: three to one loss. Hosting Wolverhampton plus one fifty five

531
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 1: the draws plus two to ten. What can we say

532
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 1: about this Wolf's team that we haven't said before. This

533
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 1: is a pretty sturdy defensive team. Only Manchester City has

534
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 1: allowed fewer goals so far this season. Wolverhampton ranks inside

535
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: the top seven in penalty expected goals per ninety, shots

536
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:52,440
Speaker 1: for ninety, big chances for ninety and Brentford. Their defensive

537
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:54,439
Speaker 1: numbers are pretty strong relative to where we thought they

538
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 1: would be this season. We know what the kind of

539
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 1: performances they can put together at home. That's kind of

540
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 1: feel a little bit like a letdown spot and I

541
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: don't think either offense is going to be able to

542
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 1: get the separation needed to put the draw out of question.

543
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: I think this total is pretty low. A lot of

544
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:12,439
Speaker 1: good ingredients for a draw. Bet. I like plus two

545
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:16,239
Speaker 1: to ten on the tie for Brentford and Wolverhampton and

546
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: what should be a pretty fun tactical match if you're

547
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 1: into that sort of thing. Anthony, anything on your beloved

548
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:24,200
Speaker 1: Bees and Wolverhampton.

549
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:24,640
Speaker 3: Yeah.

550
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 4: I actually don't have the updated numbers just yet because

551
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 4: the game was just today, But heading into today, Brentford's

552
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,719
Speaker 4: attack at home one point four expected goals per ninety,

553
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 4: Brentford's attack away from home zero point nine to nine

554
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 4: expected goals per ninety. Now no team in the entire

555
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 4: league has a bigger delta in terms of percentage of

556
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 4: goals expected goals coming at home. They've also played a

557
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 4: much tougher schedule at home, so that really even makes

558
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 4: it even bigger when you consider the strength of schedule.

559
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,399
Speaker 4: Home away splits tend to be somewhat noisy, but this

560
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 4: is a clear noticeable trend with them being a much

561
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 4: better team at home. But they've also finished really poorly

562
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 4: at home. They've only created one expected goal from one

563
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 4: point three to nine created, so some attacking regression coming,

564
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 4: and they created two and a half expected today and

565
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 4: just didn't quite take their chances. So I still think

566
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 4: they're even more likely to get some bounces to go

567
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 4: their way going forward at home. But this Wolves defense too,

568
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 4: We've talked a lot about how they should be an overteam,

569
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 4: We've joked about it.

570
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 3: They finally had an over they scored three goals.

571
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,440
Speaker 4: They're the best attack in the world in twenty twenty

572
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 4: two now, so they've only allowed point eight to four

573
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 4: expected goals away from home per ninety, which is pretty impressive,

574
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 4: but they're actually only conceding about half a goal, so

575
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 4: they've got a ton of regression coming defensively. Jose Sosben

576
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,120
Speaker 4: the best keeper in the league at shot stopping, and

577
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 4: I have a lot of respect for his performance so far,

578
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 4: but I'm skeptical that he'll be able to keep that up.

579
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 4: When these two teams played the first time, the Bes

580
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 4: one two Nilo Wolves had a ton of chances to score.

581
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 3: It was very early in the year.

582
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 4: It was a very open, back and forth game with

583
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 4: a lot of space for both teams to kind of

584
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:54,919
Speaker 4: run into and create chances off of.

585
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 3: So I think this is going to be back and forth.

586
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 4: They just Wolves are coming off their best attacking performance

587
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 4: of the season, so maybe they're so some positive vibes

588
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 4: going on at Wolves here, and this is going to

589
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 4: be an open game. So I'm splitting a unit on

590
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 4: over two and minus one ten and I'm taking some

591
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 4: both teams to score as well and plus one fifteen Beach.

592
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 1: You see some value on Brentford here. I do think

593
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: that if this was a know, the NFL or something

594
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 1: and I had to pick a side, I think I

595
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: would lean towards Brentford if there was going to be

596
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 1: a winner here. I just can't look away from the

597
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 1: jaw here and what I think is going to be

598
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 1: a lumbering match.

599
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love Brentford here in the spot. I was

600
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 2: really what I was waiting on to see is how

601
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 2: their performance was going to be today, because obviously the

602
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 2: performances before that were quite bad. Even though they beat

603
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 2: Asonville that one, they got beat on expected goals. They

604
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 2: didn't really show much in the previous two matches before that,

605
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 2: but incredibly encouraging science today, especially offensively, their offense finally

606
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 2: woke up. And I think this is a spot where

607
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 2: I'm not so sure that Wolves should be a slight

608
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 2: favorite on the road. You know, Anthony already mentioned it,

609
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 2: but Brentford much much better at the Brentford Community Stadium

610
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 2: than on the road. One of the biggest discrepancies between

611
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 2: expected goal of the financial at home versus on the

612
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 2: road they have with the update numbers to day, it's

613
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,399
Speaker 2: around a plus three point five expected goal differential at

614
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 2: home and a minus five point two on the road.

615
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,719
Speaker 2: So facing a Wolves team that isn't that great on

616
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 2: the road and really hasn't been that great playing through

617
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 2: the press or playing through teams that will pressure them

618
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 2: at a high rate. Wolves, if we look at their

619
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 2: pass offensive passes per defensive action numbers since November six,

620
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 2: when really like the troublesome signs started for them. Offensively,

621
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 2: they're at ten point one nine, which is well below

622
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 2: the Premier League average of eleven point sixty seven. So

623
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 2: facing a Brentford defense that's seventh and passes per defensive action,

624
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 2: it's not that great of a matchup. And I understand,

625
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 2: you know, they scored three goals, one of them was

626
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 2: a penalty, and you know two point two expected goals.

627
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 2: That's only the second time they've created over one expected

628
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 2: goal in their last eight matches, so they could start.

629
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 2: They have the talent obviously to become an over team,

630
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 2: like we've talked about a lot, but I need to

631
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 2: see it, you know, to maybe three matches in a

632
00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 2: row before I start to say, okay, this team is

633
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 2: a corner offensively and they're starting to be the team

634
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 2: that we saw earlier in the season. I personally, even

635
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 2: if we just look at straight up expecting goldffrenchal like

636
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 2: Brentford has a better one than Wolves right now, so

637
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 2: giving them home field advantage plus given the fact they've

638
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 2: had better form at home, I really don't understand why

639
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 2: Wolves is a slight favorite on the road. I understand

640
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 2: the low total, but I have Renford projected at plus

641
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 2: one fifty, so I love the Bees at home drawn

642
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 2: Obett at plus one ten if they get another performance

643
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 2: like they had today. A granted it's against a much

644
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 2: much better defense. I don't see how they don't walk

645
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 2: away with three points leads United.

646
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:38,719
Speaker 1: They could put themselves pretty much out of relegation trouble

647
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 1: with a win over Newcastle leads plus one hundred, Newcastle

648
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 1: plus two sixty five the draw here plus two seventy five.

649
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: This is a hilarious, hilarious matchup. I think this is

650
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 1: a team a with terrible defense and an outrageous offense.

651
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 1: And when I say outrageous, I don't mean like outrageously good.

652
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: I just mean out the literal term of outrageous the

653
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 1: way Leeds plays, and then Newcastle terrible offense, terrible defense.

654
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 1: So when you're putting all these things together, it's pretty

655
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 1: hard to look away from Leeds here plus one hundred even.

656
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 1: I mean, like I'm I was just talking about, maybe

657
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,719
Speaker 1: it's a little hypocritical talking about how I looked at

658
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: two plus two sixty five on Norwich and was like

659
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 1: extremely excited at a number that big against Watford. But

660
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 1: I think Leeds United is a couple of steps above Watford,

661
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: even with their defensive issues, And part of it is

662
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 1: because Marcelo Bielsa. We were saying, maybe it's maybe it's time,

663
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 1: maybe the Bielza burnout is here. We were wrong. Leeds

664
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: United looks much better over the past couple of weeks

665
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 1: as they got healthier. They're slowly getting back to full

666
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: fitness and Newcastle's defense, like, I can't really picture a

667
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 1: worse system or worse manager to try to beat this

668
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 1: Leeds offense than maybe what Eddie Howe does right Like,

669
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: this is not a good matchup for him, especially with

670
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: the pieces that he has. This isn't a good team

671
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: being managed by Eddie how This is a bad team

672
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 1: being managed by a manager who was ill suited to

673
00:30:56,360 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 1: take on Leeds United's cocaine ball attack. So I likely here.

674
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: I think they're an interesting parlay piece if you're into that.

675
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 1: I think they're interesting on all totals, if you want

676
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 1: to get crazy, But any way you want to get

677
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:11,959
Speaker 1: down and leads United, I endorse it. Newcastle earn some

678
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 1: serious trouble, I think, and I wouldn't be surprised if

679
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 1: Eddie Howe was out of a job pretty soon. In

680
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 1: Rapa beneath this is back at Newcastle, Anthony anything on

681
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 1: leads in the Magpies.

682
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, there were thirty eight shots the last time these

683
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,239
Speaker 4: two teams played early in the season, and in one

684
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 4: to one somehow there was almost three expected goals.

685
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 3: Newcastle has no ball winners in the midfield.

686
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 4: That's the main issue with them playing up against this

687
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 4: Leeds team and the way that Eddie Howe wants to play.

688
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 3: They could find a lot of space on the counter.

689
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 4: I actually think they will when they do break through,

690
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 4: be very dangerous and I'm concerned about guys like Saint

691
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 4: Maximum finding space and creating chances. I'm also concerned about leads,

692
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 4: set piece defending, which has been poor, and the ability

693
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 4: for say Chris Wood to make an impact there.

694
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 3: So I'm a lean here.

695
00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 4: But we're dealing with the number one team in pass

696
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 4: per defense action, the number one pressing team in the

697
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 4: league in leads against Newcastle, whose ranks twentieth in opposition

698
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 4: passes per defensive action. So that's the stylistic matchup that

699
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 4: really makes it a concern. I cannot back Newcastle here

700
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 4: despite the number, but I certainly lean toward leads and

701
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 4: if we get maybe a plus one twenty off fire,

702
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 4: But as of right now, I'm staying away.

703
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 3: The biggest issue for Leads.

704
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 4: They haven't created a lot of big scoring chances to

705
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 4: counteract the fact they can seede so damn many chances.

706
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 4: Patrick Bamford could be back here, so that would definitely help.

707
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 4: But we will see on the injury news and if

708
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 4: Leeds can continue to turn it around.

709
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: I think you said it right, like there's nobody who

710
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 1: can win the ball for Leads. And also Eddie had

711
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 1: likes to play ball on the floor style of soccer

712
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 1: style of football. He doesn't have the people to play

713
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: that style on this team. Maybe he'll get them some

714
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 1: more of them in January. But when you're playing leads,

715
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: they're trying to pass through this press with the roster

716
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 1: he has, I don't think it's going to work. So

717
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 1: I think that this is just a nightmare scenario for

718
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 1: Newcastle right now. BJ Do you like these Peacocks.

719
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 2: I love the Peacocks match of Anthony already mentioned it

720
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 2: though the number one pass per defensive action team versus

721
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 2: the worst offensively. This is one of those matchups you

722
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 2: kind of dream of when you're trying to handicap these

723
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 2: getting a plus one hundred. But there are a couple

724
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 2: of things I think working, you know, obviously against Newcastle

725
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 2: in this matchup. You guys already mentioned it. The midfield

726
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 2: they went with. They tried to play a four to

727
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 2: three to three against Watford and they went with the

728
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 2: midfield of Sean Longstaff, John Joe Shelby and Joel Linton.

729
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 2: That's terrible. That's a terrible midfield, especially going up against

730
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 2: a team that can press the way Leads can.

731
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 1: You know.

732
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 2: I'm going to be watching the status of Patrick Bamford

733
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 2: be also mentioned that they could have him for this match,

734
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 2: although they're rumors, maybe circuling on if their rumors are true,

735
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 2: But that's his first child is also due very soon,

736
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 2: so who knows if he's going to be back in lineup,

737
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 2: But if he is back in the lineup, it's massive

738
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 2: for Leeds who are without Joel Gearhart right now. Bamford

739
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 2: last season had a point five to four expected goal

740
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 2: per ninety minutes scoring rate, and it's just he's just

741
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 2: so vital to the final scoring chances being put in

742
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 2: the back of the net because Leads doesn't really have

743
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 2: another true that they can put up top and to

744
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 2: go get those type of goals. As far as the

745
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 2: market is concerned, I was a little I don't know,

746
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 2: I don't kind of shocked obviously, with Karen Tripier and

747
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 2: Chris Wood being the lineup on Saturad against Watford. Newcastle

748
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 2: opened at plus one ten and closed at minus one

749
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 2: twenty against Watford, so you know, Leeds has already taken

750
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 2: a little bit of money in the market either around

751
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 2: opened around plus one fifteen. Now they're down to even money.

752
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 2: We'll see if that comes back a little bit on Newcastle.

753
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if it will. If Chris Wood and

754
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 2: Kerrien Tripper and starting eleven again, who knows, maybe it

755
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 2: tends towards Newcastle. So I'll be watching the market. Leeds

756
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 2: offense has been much better the last two games because

757
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 2: they haven't played that much, you know, with all the

758
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 2: postponements and everything, They've only really had two matches and

759
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 2: in those two matches against Burnley and west Ham they

760
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,800
Speaker 2: created around four expected goals, which is a big uptick.

761
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 2: So they're going up against a Newcastle defense it's bottom

762
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 2: three and every single defensive metric and allowing one point

763
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 2: seventy to nine expected goals per match and haven't sized Trippier,

764
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:58,280
Speaker 2: haven't really added anybody to fix those type of defensive issues.

765
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 2: So I have leads projected minus one seventeen. If Bamford

766
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 2: is in there, I will be hammering on leads, but

767
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 2: I'll be watching the market and if I can get leads,

768
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,280
Speaker 2: I'll probably wait, you know, plus one ten. Without Bamford,

769
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 2: I'll probably end up playing leads. But yeah, we'll just

770
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,439
Speaker 2: we'll watch the market and wait on this one. But yeah,

771
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 2: I'm with you, guys. I do love leads in this matchup.

772
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 1: The twelve thirty pm kickoff, Southampton plus nine to fifty

773
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 1: hosting Manchester City minus three seventy. The Druss five to

774
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 1: one here. So much of handicapping is science. The number

775
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 1: is the data, but there is some RT to it,

776
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,399
Speaker 1: and I think we're talking about you know, this might

777
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 1: be the week for spots, and I think this is

778
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 1: a terrible spot for Manchester City if there ever was

779
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: such a thing. Right, they just played Arsenal, Chelsea basically

780
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,439
Speaker 1: wrapped up the Premier League title. There's an international break

781
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:44,919
Speaker 1: on the other side of this weekend and a trip

782
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 1: down to the South Coast to take out Southampton, a

783
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 1: mid table team not going to be too fussed about it,

784
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 1: I don't think, and it should be said like the

785
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 1: Southampton team, They're flawed for sure, but they also have

786
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 1: a pretty high ceiling, especially with their attack like they

787
00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 1: do create chances. I think Southampton's worth this wrinkle here

788
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 1: at plus nine to fifty. I really do. It's not

789
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 1: like Manchester City is going to It would be shocking

790
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: if Manchester City doesn't drop another match to a team

791
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 1: like we saw, like with Crystal Palace, for the rest

792
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 1: of the season. And I think especially because like what

793
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:16,720
Speaker 1: are they playing for at this point besides just marching

794
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 1: their way methodically to another Premier League title. And I

795
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,760
Speaker 1: think that this is a spot where what I should

796
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 1: say is you could find worse spots to back a

797
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 1: huge underdog than Southampton here. So I'm going to be

798
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 1: on the money line plus nine to fifty on Southampton.

799
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:30,359
Speaker 1: Maybe it's a little crazy. It is a little crazy.

800
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 1: The odd suggests it's a little crazy, But that's where

801
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 1: I'm going, Anthony.

802
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 4: I don't think it's that crazy. I'm personally probably passing here,

803
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:39,360
Speaker 4: but I think if you look at the last few matches,

804
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 4: City have certainly not been the juggernaut they were prior.

805
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 3: I think everybody went bonkers.

806
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 4: They scored seven on leads four on Newcastle, then they

807
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 4: put six past Lester. Everybody was like, oh my god,

808
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 4: they're the greatest team that's ever played the sport. And then,

809
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,799
Speaker 4: of course they played three consecutive games. They have a

810
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 4: sleepy one zero win against Brentford where the Bees were

811
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 4: very live for the first half half hour or so

812
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 4: and then pretty much kept them out for large portions

813
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:03,839
Speaker 4: of that match.

814
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:05,800
Speaker 3: They only created point eight expected goals.

815
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 4: Then they play Arsenal and bj is still mad about

816
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 4: that match. I think we're going to be hearing about

817
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,760
Speaker 4: that every week for the next year, or at least.

818
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 3: Until Arsenal wins the match.

819
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 4: But the City were outplayed for large strutches of that

820
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 4: match and it only turned on a red card and

821
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 4: a controversial we'll say penalty, a penalty with the controversial decision.

822
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 4: So they were not very sharp in that game. And

823
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 4: then they played Chelsea in a classic City Chelsea battle

824
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 4: where Chelsea sits back and City tries to create chances.

825
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 4: City didn't create a tome great moment from Debrona to

826
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 4: win it. But this attack now three games where they

827
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 4: have created one or less non penalty expected goals, and

828
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 4: if you go back to the first meeting between these

829
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:51,319
Speaker 4: two teams a goalless draw. There was a controversial art

830
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 4: decision that went against City, but a goalless draw where

831
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:56,720
Speaker 4: City only created one expected goals. So Southampton's had success

832
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:57,720
Speaker 4: against City in the past.

833
00:37:58,239 --> 00:37:59,760
Speaker 3: They've got him in a great spot.

834
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 4: Like Michael mentioned, big home day for Southampton, don't have

835
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,879
Speaker 4: a ton of players going away on international duty. We're

836
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 4: as City have a lot of guys thinking about that,

837
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 4: so it's probably a pretty good spot.

838
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 3: But I'm going to end up passing.

839
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 1: We'll flip into Sunday nine am kickoff Crystal Palace plus

840
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:16,839
Speaker 1: four to seventy five at home hosting Liverpool minus one

841
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: seventy five. The draw is plus three thirty. Perhaps another

842
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 1: Christan Bowl here, huh. Palace is another team. I think

843
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 1: that Profiles is a strong underdog, especially at big numbers. Terrific,

844
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 1: terrific defensive team sixth in non penalty expected goals per

845
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:33,399
Speaker 1: ninety third and big chances allowed in the Premier League.

846
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 1: So far there's seventh and expected points. Liverpool did thrash

847
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 1: up three to Nilo in the reverse fixture. I think

848
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: that was too early in the season to really look

849
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 1: too much into it. Plus it's Afcon. It's gonna be

850
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: a lot of guys missing. Wilfrid Zaha from Crystal Palace

851
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:50,360
Speaker 1: is going to be gone. But then Saudio Mayne, Mosla

852
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 1: Navi Kita, They're out for Liverpool and just it's this

853
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 1: is a tricky spot again. This is another one of

854
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 1: those spots for a big favorite where right before an

855
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:02,360
Speaker 1: international break, I was missing for Afcon, the transfer rumors

856
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 1: swirling around everybody. I think that it's you could find

857
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 1: another I'll say it again, you can find a worst

858
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 1: spot to fade Liverpool than Crystal Palace at near five

859
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 1: to one at home in front of which should be

860
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,799
Speaker 1: a raucous crowd at Sellhurs Park. So I'm not gonna

861
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 1: be able to stay away from this money line set

862
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 1: it at the top of the show. A lot of

863
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 1: big underdogs that I think are live this weekend of

864
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 1: the Premier League, and Crystal Palace is definitely one of them.

865
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna not be taking Crystal Palace at the pregame,

866
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 2: but I will be trying to get on them live.

867
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 2: I spoke about this on last week's episode and I

868
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 2: didn't even take my own advice and it would have won.

869
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 2: But because Crystal Palace didn't register a shot in the

870
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 2: first half against Brighton and just got completely dominated, so

871
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 2: I got scared. But they are one of the best

872
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 2: second half teams in the Premier League so far this season,

873
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:48,879
Speaker 2: minus three point sixty four expected goldifferential in the first half,

874
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:52,280
Speaker 2: but a plus five point eight nine expected gold differential

875
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 2: in the second half, and they also have a plus

876
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:57,720
Speaker 2: one point two five expected gold differential when playing from behind.

877
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 2: So given the fact that they are at home, they

878
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 2: have a plus a seven point eight expect a goldenferential,

879
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,760
Speaker 2: which is the third fourth best in the Premier League

880
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:10,280
Speaker 2: at home. Combine the fact with Liverpool without Saudio Mane

881
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 2: Mosala and Navi Kates and potentially note Thiago or Alex

882
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 2: Oxley Chamberlain for this match, it is a good, really

883
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 2: good spot. If Liverpool goes ahead to jump in on

884
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 2: Crystal Palace, you know, plus one maybe plus half a

885
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 2: gold trying to get them back, to have them get

886
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 2: back in it. Like you said, Michael, it's gonna be

887
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:30,959
Speaker 2: a raucous crowd. Liverpool not really that great at spot.

888
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 2: It's probably it's it's I mean, we can sit here

889
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 2: and try to say that Liverpool can get back in

890
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 2: the title race, but I mean it's pretty much over,

891
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,439
Speaker 2: and if they drop points here, it definitely is over.

892
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 2: And then for the next you know, however many matches

893
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 2: we have left in the season, we're going to try

894
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,879
Speaker 2: to handicap motivation with the top three teams in this league,

895
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:51,360
Speaker 2: which is not very fun, but that also give us

896
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 2: a lot of chances on a lot of these underdogs

897
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 2: as well. So I'm gonna try to jump in on

898
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 2: Crystal Palace live in this one. We'll see what happens.

899
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 2: If you know, Krystal Palace scores first, then all this

900
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 2: goes to moot and it's not playable. But I do

901
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 2: think that going forward is something to keep in mind.

902
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 2: You know, Crystal Palace going behind or potentially trying to

903
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 2: get out on the second half is usually a good bet,

904
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 2: as I've.

905
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 1: Been saying this whole episode. But I do think this

906
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 1: is a good weekend for the dogs, which means that a,

907
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 1: you know, Liverpool City, Arsenal Parlay, maybe sprinkle some other

908
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 1: big favorites in there. We'll definitely catch Anthony. People think Liverpool,

909
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 1: they think overs you're saying under.

910
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I certainly lean that way.

911
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 4: This Palace defense has had impressive numbers, especially at home.

912
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:37,280
Speaker 4: They've been very effective and they've done relatively well against

913
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 4: teams who like to apply some pressure. I think they've

914
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 4: been relatively solid with their ball playing center backs at

915
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:46,720
Speaker 4: kind of not being overwhelmed. And I just don't think

916
00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:49,799
Speaker 4: that the Liverpool pressing monster is quite as effective when

917
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 4: you're away from home and you don't have guys like

918
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:53,799
Speaker 4: Mana and Sala waiting to pounce. Now that being said,

919
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 4: Liverpool did have ten shots inside the penalty area against

920
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 4: Brentford in the first half alone last match, but that

921
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:01,479
Speaker 4: was at home. Bees are much worse on the road.

922
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 4: They clearly didn't miss Mani and Sala. But again, as

923
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 4: time goes on, I think this is this is only

924
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 4: gonna be the only other match in the Premier League

925
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 4: they're going to play without them.

926
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:12,880
Speaker 3: There also could be a little bit fatigue. They've got the.

927
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 4: EFL Cup on Thursday, which is we're taping this on

928
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:17,759
Speaker 4: Wednesday night, so before recording we don't quite know what's

929
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:19,719
Speaker 4: going to happen there. I lean toward the under three

930
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 4: right now. It's like minus one forty one to forty fives.

931
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 4: I would need one twenty five to play it so

932
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 4: right now, pass, but definitely lean toward the under in

933
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 4: that game.

934
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 1: Another nine am kickoff Arsenal minus two sixty five hosting

935
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 1: Burnley plus seven fifty. The draw here is four to one.

936
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 1: Burnley has a plate since January second. This is their

937
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 1: second match since the seven fourteenth. I've been saying this

938
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 1: for weeks, so I'm getting a little sick of it.

939
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,240
Speaker 1: They're won eight and eight with an a negative eleven

940
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 1: goal differential and just about there in terms of expected

941
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 1: goald differential on the season sixteen goals scored, twenty seven

942
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:55,320
Speaker 1: goals against, seventeen expected goals for US twenty eight expected

943
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 1: goals against. It's really tough to just even take to

944
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:02,240
Speaker 1: handicap this team because they haven't played and they lost

945
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 1: the focal point of their attack, and we know what

946
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:07,840
Speaker 1: their numbers have said all season, leakier than usual, playing

947
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 1: more of a high event soccer than usual. This is Burnley,

948
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 1: not Arsenal. Uh, and I guess we can probably apply

949
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 1: it to both of them. But how are you going

950
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 1: to take what we haven't seen from Burnley and try

951
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 1: to find value on it. It's it's it's going to

952
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:25,359
Speaker 1: be a pass for me. Fortunately, bja anything on your

953
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:27,239
Speaker 1: gunners and the clarits here.

954
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 2: No, we'll see what happens on Thursday in the care

955
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:32,600
Speaker 2: about couple, so kind of line up our Ted is

956
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:34,319
Speaker 2: able to go with. You know, it's unfortunate. We just

957
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 2: didn't know enough players to play in North London Derby.

958
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 2: You know we really wanted to, but you know by

959
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:43,880
Speaker 2: Premier on Monday, Premier League Roules, we didn't have enough players,

960
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:47,239
Speaker 2: so it was unfortunate. But you know, uh Ghana's out

961
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 2: of the Africa Nations which means Thomas Party is back,

962
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 2: which is great for the Arsenal midfield on He probably

963
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 2: played this weekend, but going forward, you know he probably

964
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:58,879
Speaker 2: who will feature in the midfield. Odegard will be coming

965
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:03,399
Speaker 2: back off of covid R recovery. It's great recovery. Well,

966
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 2: you know he's he's a fit, fit young man that

967
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:08,919
Speaker 2: is one of the best midfielders in the Premier League.

968
00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 2: So not surprisingly that he recovered so quickly. Yeah, it's

969
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:14,719
Speaker 2: I can't lay this number with Arsenal, there's no way.

970
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 2: But I also can't really back Burnley with how bad

971
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,880
Speaker 2: their defensive numbers are and the fact that not only

972
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 2: they lost Chris would but Maxwell Corney is still at

973
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 2: the Africa Cup of Nations, so uh, I you know,

974
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 2: Jay Rodriguez and Vidra and Aaron Lennon don't really put

975
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 2: the fear of God into me, especially given the fact

976
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:35,239
Speaker 2: that Gabrielle and Ben Wedder are both healthy and back

977
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,839
Speaker 2: there as a center back pairing. So it's a pass

978
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:40,920
Speaker 2: for me. Yeah, this, this judge number is just Arsenal's

979
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 2: attad inflated. But at the same time, Burnley's missing a

980
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 2: lot of their key attackers and I just don't see

981
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 2: how they get on the board here, So it's a

982
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 2: pass for me.

983
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:48,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm trying to figure out how to project this

984
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:50,879
Speaker 4: Burnley team anymore. They haven't played in a month. Yeah,

985
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 4: it feels like they lost or are missing all of

986
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:57,880
Speaker 4: their good attackers because of AFCON or injury or sale.

987
00:44:58,600 --> 00:44:59,719
Speaker 3: So I've no.

988
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 4: I actually probably would play Arsenal and Lanet before I

989
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 4: ever took Burnley as a dog.

990
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 3: And I think he's telling that that.

991
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 4: You know, Michael would line up usually, he'd be the

992
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 4: first person at the sports book as soon as they

993
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 4: opened the line to bet Burnley against Arsenal. Even he

994
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:15,320
Speaker 4: is holding out here, and I think that's kind of

995
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,399
Speaker 4: the point we're at on Burnley where we just don't know.

996
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 4: I don't know how to project them. I think they're

997
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 4: one of the three worst teams right now, but I

998
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:23,439
Speaker 4: don't even have a clue, so I'm happy to pass.

999
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:26,080
Speaker 2: They also just lost two one to Huddersfield in the

1000
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 2: FA Cup the last time they played, so it's yeah,

1001
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 2: it's it's it's weird and bad, and I agree, I

1002
00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 2: can't make pads and tails of Burnley right now.

1003
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 1: We've said that it's been a weird season for them

1004
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 1: all season, so you even throw that in right like,

1005
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,799
Speaker 1: it's this isn't typical Burnley. So you're you're talking about

1006
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:45,359
Speaker 1: trying to handicap an atypical Sean Ditsch team who is

1007
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:48,840
Speaker 1: the most kind of tried and true, pragmatic, predictable. You

1008
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 1: know what you're going to get out of Burnley Every

1009
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:52,719
Speaker 1: time they step on the pitch, it's going to be

1010
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:55,440
Speaker 1: a hard effort. They're going to be as organized as

1011
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 1: they can be, and they're going to lump the ball

1012
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 1: for it and hope that they can, you know, claw

1013
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 1: the game into the eightieth minute and Nicol winner somewhere

1014
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:04,319
Speaker 1: along the line, and that just hasn't been how they've

1015
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 1: been playing, so that you're throwing all these things in

1016
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 1: and it just becomes harder because I mean, I would

1017
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:10,720
Speaker 1: love to be able to convince myself to bet Burnley

1018
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,320
Speaker 1: against Arsenal in this matchup. It's this would be a spot,

1019
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 1: Like you said, if this was normal, I would be

1020
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 1: all over the Clarens here. But it's so far that

1021
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 1: I honestly I agree with you, Anthony. I think I'm

1022
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:22,800
Speaker 1: much more inclined to chase something with Arsenal than to

1023
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:23,839
Speaker 1: play Burnley here.

1024
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 4: And Arsenal loves to beat up on teams that are

1025
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:29,400
Speaker 4: riddled with COVID and AFCON. It's situations so that that

1026
00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:31,839
Speaker 4: kind of they have the history there, the history one guy,

1027
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 4: they have the history of doing that.

1028
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 3: But that being said another the leads match.

1029
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 2: Have like three matches postponed earlier parent planning for me already.

1030
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 1: The last Premier League match we'll talk about Leicester City

1031
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 1: plus one forty five hosting Brighton whole val beyond plus

1032
00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 1: one ninety five, the draw is plus two forty five. Here,

1033
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 1: Lester's defense just gave up four and a half expected

1034
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:58,919
Speaker 1: goals to Tottenham, three goals, including two at the very end. Yeah,

1035
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 1: n investor guard was basically playing as a twelfth player

1036
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 1: for Tottenham. He's been a mess for this Leicster team

1037
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:09,279
Speaker 1: since he came over. It's I think it's pretty hard

1038
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 1: to look away from Brighton here too. Another underdog. I

1039
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 1: like another underdog on the road. I just wonder where

1040
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 1: this number is going to go because it's plus one

1041
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 1: ninety five and Brighton right now. Brighton is a team

1042
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 1: that a lot of modelers like and coming off that

1043
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 1: lesser performance, we could see this number dip a bit,

1044
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 1: but at the current number plus one ninety five, I

1045
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 1: think there's some value on the Seagulls. We'll see where

1046
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:32,720
Speaker 1: this thing goes if it trip dips too far, if

1047
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 1: you know. I think plus one eighty maybe is a

1048
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:37,880
Speaker 1: good cutoff point on the Seagulls here because their offense

1049
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,640
Speaker 1: isn't also the type that you would expect to punish

1050
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 1: Leicester City, right They're not going to be generating chance

1051
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 1: after a chance. This is a much more stoic offensive attack.

1052
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 1: But it's Seagulls for me. What about you, BJ?

1053
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 2: I do think this match is fairly priced based you know,

1054
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 2: on the regular money line and the over under, but

1055
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 2: I do think there's a way you can get it

1056
00:47:56,239 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 2: on Brighton. I'm gonna go first half Brighton to score

1057
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:04,560
Speaker 2: a goal. Yes. At plus one twenty five, Lester has

1058
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 2: allowed the most first half goals in the Premier League

1059
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:09,360
Speaker 2: this season. They're around twenty one first half goals in

1060
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:13,359
Speaker 2: nineteen matches. That's really that's really quite bad. And you know,

1061
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 2: Brighton's not that great in the first half, but they're

1062
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 2: starting to find their groove offensively. They only average one

1063
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 2: point two expected goals in the first half matches. But

1064
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:23,799
Speaker 2: you saw it today with Lester. They are down so

1065
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 2: many defensive midfielders who are all at AFCON. They're down

1066
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 2: Johnny Evans and they have to fill in Janet fester

1067
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 2: Guard who's been terrible. They you know Castana is out,

1068
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 2: There's so many other guys that they're just missing in

1069
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 2: the back end that they just don't have enough pieces

1070
00:48:37,520 --> 00:48:40,400
Speaker 2: to stop really anybody. And now they face a possession

1071
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 2: dominant side like Brighton, who's going to be able to

1072
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:44,879
Speaker 2: progress the ball up the field into the final third

1073
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:47,280
Speaker 2: against one of the worst defenses in the Premier League.

1074
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:50,959
Speaker 2: At plus one twenty five, I think that's a fantastic number.

1075
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 2: So Brighton to score in the first half at plus

1076
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 2: one twenty five.

1077
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:56,799
Speaker 1: Anthony, nothing for you yet on this one, but you're

1078
00:48:56,840 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 1: looking towards the Seagals.

1079
00:48:58,600 --> 00:48:59,880
Speaker 3: Eight oh hundred percent.

1080
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 4: Not really sure how Brighton's this big of an underdog.

1081
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 4: Lester were shambala today.

1082
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:05,640
Speaker 3: I know how it ended.

1083
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 4: It kind of leaves a sour taste in your mouth

1084
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:09,840
Speaker 4: if you had Lester, if you're a Lester fan. But

1085
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:12,239
Speaker 4: they did not deserve to be winning that game at

1086
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:16,280
Speaker 4: any point, conceding four and a half goals twenty five shots.

1087
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:18,320
Speaker 3: I think it was in total to Tottenham overall in

1088
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 3: the midfield.

1089
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:23,840
Speaker 4: And if Tottenham is bossing your midfield with Oliver Skip,

1090
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 4: Harry Winks and Pierre m Ahoybier, well, now we're dealing

1091
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 4: with a Brighton team well I think is even better

1092
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 4: at controlling the midfield in games.

1093
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 1: Now.

1094
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:32,319
Speaker 4: They don't have a guy like Harry Kane who's going

1095
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:33,480
Speaker 4: to get you ten shots a game.

1096
00:49:33,520 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 3: That's the one big issue with Brighton.

1097
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 4: But for them to be an underdog here seems a

1098
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 4: little off to me and I'll probably be backing them

1099
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:40,760
Speaker 4: come Sunday.

1100
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 1: All right, that wraps up the Premier League. We will

1101
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 1: circle back on the EPL at the end of the

1102
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 1: show for our best bets. But now let's move on

1103
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 1: to Germany the Buddhesliga full slate this weekend. We'll give

1104
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:54,759
Speaker 1: about our favorite bets there. I like Dortmund. They're taking

1105
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 1: on Hoffenheim. I like Dortmund nine ers one plus two hundred.

1106
00:49:57,400 --> 00:49:59,400
Speaker 1: These are two very high event teams, and I just

1107
00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:02,879
Speaker 1: thinkton it's better than Hoppenheim. Tortman could make a title

1108
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 1: race out of this yet in the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich,

1109
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:08,359
Speaker 1: so you know, instead of just playing the plus one ten,

1110
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 1: I think if Dortmann does win this game, it would

1111
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 1: be likely by multiple goals with the way these two

1112
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 1: teams are up and down the pitch. So give me

1113
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:19,759
Speaker 1: the black and yellow Dortmund baby minus one plus two

1114
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 1: hundred BJ. What's your favorite bet in the Bundesliga.

1115
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,880
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Arbi Leipzig Wolfsburg over three goals at

1116
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:29,919
Speaker 2: plus one fifteen. Arbiy Leipsig's offense is absolutely chuggernaut right now.

1117
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 2: They're averaging two point one five expected goals per match

1118
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 2: on the season and have created thirteen point four expected

1119
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 2: goals in their last five matches. That is almost three

1120
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 2: expected goals in match. That is really really good, and

1121
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 2: in those five matches they've created a whopping eighteen big

1122
00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 2: scoring chances, so it's insane how good their offense is

1123
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:52,879
Speaker 2: running right now. Their defense has been playing better as

1124
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 2: of late, only four point three expected goals allowed in

1125
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 2: their last four matches, but that was against Armenia Bafield,

1126
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 2: Augsburg Mines who got a red card in the first half,

1127
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 2: and then stut Gart this past weekend. The days of

1128
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 2: the Wolfsburg like rock solid defense and low scoring games

1129
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:09,720
Speaker 2: like those are way way gone right now. Since November

1130
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:12,959
Speaker 2: twenty seventh, Wolfsburg is allowing on average two point zero

1131
00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 2: seven expected goals per match has conceded sixteen big scoring

1132
00:51:17,120 --> 00:51:19,560
Speaker 2: chances in those seven matches, so having to face one

1133
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 2: of the hottest offenses in the Bundesliga that has created

1134
00:51:22,120 --> 00:51:24,800
Speaker 2: the second most big scoring chances this season is really

1135
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:27,320
Speaker 2: just a nightmare matchup. But on the flip side, Wolfsburg

1136
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:29,960
Speaker 2: offensively hasn't been that bad. That last match against hurt

1137
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:32,880
Speaker 2: the Berlin they really should have won. They created two

1138
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 2: point one expected goals and had four big scoring chances,

1139
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 2: just couldn't put anything the back of the net. Overall,

1140
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:38,920
Speaker 2: for the season, they are averaging one point four to

1141
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 2: two expected goals per match, so this isn't like a

1142
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:44,319
Speaker 2: hopeless offense that you know it's going to continue to crater.

1143
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 2: Because Wolfsburg is a one and sixth in the last

1144
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:49,239
Speaker 2: seven matches. They're going to rebound and get somewhere, you know,

1145
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 2: p here pretty soon because they do have that type

1146
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:53,839
Speaker 2: of talent. But in this type of matchup, I think

1147
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 2: we're going to see just a very open game, a

1148
00:51:56,239 --> 00:51:58,600
Speaker 2: lot of big scoring chances. So I have three point

1149
00:51:58,640 --> 00:52:01,560
Speaker 2: two four goals project, so I level over three goals

1150
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:02,879
Speaker 2: at plus one fifteen.

1151
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,720
Speaker 1: And Anthony, you got something for us out of Germany

1152
00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 1: this weekend, I.

1153
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 4: Do fading the team that is somehow unbeaten in four

1154
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:13,480
Speaker 4: Arminia bi Lafeld, fading them taking ein track Frankfurt minus

1155
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:15,880
Speaker 4: one thirty. On the money line, we both beij in.

1156
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:18,879
Speaker 4: I both faded Blifeld last week and we backed our

1157
00:52:18,960 --> 00:52:21,800
Speaker 4: boys great their Firth who got a point and cast

1158
00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 4: our bets. Thank you great there taking a short pause

1159
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 4: from backing them.

1160
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,359
Speaker 3: We'll be back at some point. But the last four

1161
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:29,279
Speaker 3: matches a two.

1162
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 4: Oh win against Bochum despite barely winning expected goals. It

1163
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:36,600
Speaker 4: was a very even match, very fluky result. They then

1164
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 4: stole a two to no win against Leipzig where they

1165
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 4: conceded over two expected goals and only created about half

1166
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 4: of one themselves, scored two low probability chances smash and

1167
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:48,360
Speaker 4: grab stuff and then scored two late goals on low

1168
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 4: probability chances again and tied Freiberg to to despite getting

1169
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 4: dominated once again. Their field tilt numbers are incredibly concerning

1170
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 4: and this Frankfurt attack Frankfort.

1171
00:52:57,760 --> 00:52:58,640
Speaker 3: Has been very up and down.

1172
00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:01,160
Speaker 4: They blew a two no lead to Dortmund, they ran

1173
00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:05,480
Speaker 4: Leverkuzen off the pitch, they beat glad Boch but they've

1174
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:07,360
Speaker 4: been super up and down. But I think this is

1175
00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:09,399
Speaker 4: a game at home against one of the worst teams

1176
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 4: in the league, and it can only get minus one

1177
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 4: thirty when my number is closer to one forty five,

1178
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 4: I'm happy to lay it a little bit of juice

1179
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:16,480
Speaker 4: with Frankfurt.

1180
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:21,280
Speaker 1: Now we're going to take a journey to Italy for Syria. Ah, Anthony,

1181
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 1: this is your the place of your ancestors, and you

1182
00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:27,880
Speaker 1: have some harsh feelings towards Syria so far this season.

1183
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:28,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was dreading.

1184
00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:31,399
Speaker 4: I did a little update on Twitter and went through

1185
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:33,719
Speaker 4: all my app record for the year, and I was

1186
00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:36,200
Speaker 4: dreading the number on Siria and just how bad it's been.

1187
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:38,960
Speaker 4: It's been absolute blud bath. I know Bjay is grimacing

1188
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 4: as well. The league makes no sense this year. Nobody

1189
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 4: regresses to their means. Expect the goals throw them out

1190
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:48,120
Speaker 4: the window. Things that happened in that league don't make

1191
00:53:48,160 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 4: any sense. The goalkeeping is embarrassing. Everybody has a bad

1192
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:56,760
Speaker 4: goalkeeper except Vanetzia and Milan, who's down to their backup.

1193
00:53:57,400 --> 00:54:01,880
Speaker 4: Some of sixteen goalies are either blow or at average

1194
00:54:01,880 --> 00:54:04,799
Speaker 4: and shot stopping this year. There's been way too many

1195
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 4: goals in this damn league. My answerstor from Italy I

1196
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 4: am a proud Italian. Berto Mancini is my lock screen

1197
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:16,080
Speaker 4: background Italy. I am begging you please follow logic and

1198
00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:19,360
Speaker 4: finally have some regression at some point, because I'm tired

1199
00:54:19,400 --> 00:54:22,680
Speaker 4: of losing on unders in games that are completely dead,

1200
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:24,800
Speaker 4: and then two teams score these two wonder goals and

1201
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 4: then it goes crazy back and forth and there's way

1202
00:54:26,560 --> 00:54:29,799
Speaker 4: too many penalties given out. It's ridiculous. The refereeing has

1203
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,000
Speaker 4: been terrible, The goalies have been terrible. The shooting has

1204
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:35,080
Speaker 4: been ridiculously unsustainably good, and at some point we're going

1205
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 4: to go on a run. I know it, BJ and

1206
00:54:37,000 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 4: we're going to start on Friday. Verona is playing Bologna.

1207
00:54:41,160 --> 00:54:44,799
Speaker 4: Two point five under is plus money. I don't think

1208
00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:46,759
Speaker 4: it should be plus money. Verona has been one of

1209
00:54:46,760 --> 00:54:49,720
Speaker 4: the biggest luck boxes going forward the entire league, scoring

1210
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:52,200
Speaker 4: forty one goals from thirty one expected. They have a

1211
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 4: ton of regression coming. Bolognet as well, defensively has been

1212
00:54:55,320 --> 00:55:00,400
Speaker 4: super unlucky, conceding all these goals from nowhere. Unsurprisingly, Rona

1213
00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:04,200
Speaker 4: and Bologna rank out pretty poorly in goalkeeping. The Bolognas

1214
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:07,120
Speaker 4: conceded a lot of penalties. All of this stuff is fluky,

1215
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:10,400
Speaker 4: and we're going to get an under Friday afternoon. Probably

1216
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:12,239
Speaker 4: gonna be nil noll at half and then there's gonna

1217
00:55:12,239 --> 00:55:14,759
Speaker 4: be two stoppage time goals for it to end to one.

1218
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:16,800
Speaker 3: But I'm back in the under plus money.

1219
00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:21,920
Speaker 2: You know, to your point, Anthony, I just looked it up, Siria.

1220
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 2: There have been eighty one penalties given out this season.

1221
00:55:25,360 --> 00:55:28,040
Speaker 2: The other four leagues haven't even had over sixty, So

1222
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 2: that's how bad The referring and this has been this

1223
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 2: has been trending for a while now in Italy. There's

1224
00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 2: just there's just so much like penalty luck that happens,

1225
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:38,239
Speaker 2: and like you mentioned, there just nothing ever makes sense.

1226
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:40,480
Speaker 2: I try to do these both teams to score projections

1227
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:43,360
Speaker 2: like seven or eight of them I have in the

1228
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:45,319
Speaker 2: green for no, but I can't bet any of them

1229
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:48,719
Speaker 2: because every match is drunk and just know, nothing ever

1230
00:55:48,760 --> 00:55:52,160
Speaker 2: makes sense. So you know, I'll try to make sense

1231
00:55:52,160 --> 00:55:54,799
Speaker 2: of something here and take Spetsia drawn no bet plus

1232
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 2: one oh five at home against sam Dori. If you

1233
00:55:57,160 --> 00:56:00,200
Speaker 2: missed it, Spetsy got a late winner to beat to

1234
00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 2: ac Milan on the road on Monday and got them

1235
00:56:02,680 --> 00:56:05,440
Speaker 2: out of the relegation fight. Now we have a match

1236
00:56:05,440 --> 00:56:08,160
Speaker 2: where I'm not so sure they should be slight underdogs.

1237
00:56:08,160 --> 00:56:11,720
Speaker 2: Is Sampdoria. Like I mentioned with the penalty looks, Betsy

1238
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 2: has been one of the most unlucky teams in that fact,

1239
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:17,480
Speaker 2: because they've given up eight penalties this season. So if

1240
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:19,319
Speaker 2: we look at if you look at their actual you know,

1241
00:56:19,400 --> 00:56:22,400
Speaker 2: expected goal of Frenchal, it's minus nineteen. They're expected goal

1242
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:25,439
Speaker 2: to Frenchial is also minus nineteen. But if we take

1243
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 2: their non penalty expected goal of differential it's only minus

1244
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:31,480
Speaker 2: ten point nine to one, and Sampdoria in that same

1245
00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:34,160
Speaker 2: fashion is at minus eleven point zero two. So these

1246
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 2: are pretty much even teams. And then we give Spetsial

1247
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:39,520
Speaker 2: home field advantage. They really should be the slight favorite

1248
00:56:39,520 --> 00:56:42,480
Speaker 2: in this one, and Sampdoria they're just a really blow

1249
00:56:42,520 --> 00:56:46,520
Speaker 2: average team. They're you know, bottom five defensively and non

1250
00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:50,000
Speaker 2: penalty expected goals, they're bottom seven offensively in that same category.

1251
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:53,400
Speaker 2: Specia they are. I'm not going to sit here pretend

1252
00:56:53,440 --> 00:56:56,839
Speaker 2: they's some actual good defensive team. They're not. But what

1253
00:56:56,920 --> 00:56:59,760
Speaker 2: they do do well is they are a decent pressing

1254
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:02,759
Speaker 2: ninth in precious for ninety and sixth and pressure success rate,

1255
00:57:02,920 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 2: and Santoria is the worst team in Syria against pressure.

1256
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:08,080
Speaker 2: So this is a numbers play here where I'm not

1257
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:10,759
Speaker 2: so really, I'm not so sure that Samtoria should be

1258
00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:14,240
Speaker 2: the slight favorite on the road against Specia. So Speccy

1259
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:16,160
Speaker 2: Adrono bet at home at plus one oh five.

1260
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:18,880
Speaker 1: And now I want to spain, Anthony, you and I

1261
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:20,960
Speaker 1: are on the same team. I'll let you take it away.

1262
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:23,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've enjoyed the Vacanos story as much as the

1263
00:57:23,960 --> 00:57:29,400
Speaker 4: next guy newly promoted team overperforming. We're very underrated in

1264
00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:32,680
Speaker 4: the market coming into the season. Now the pendulum has

1265
00:57:32,680 --> 00:57:35,520
Speaker 4: swung a little bit here for them to be pretty

1266
00:57:35,560 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 4: much a toss up with Bill Bao, who's been pretty

1267
00:57:38,560 --> 00:57:41,960
Speaker 4: impressive and has started to have some of that regression come.

1268
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 4: They've played some high scoring games for a change. They

1269
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:46,640
Speaker 4: had a two to one game, then they had a

1270
00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 4: two nil game, there was a three to one game.

1271
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:51,479
Speaker 4: I mean, just crazy stuff for Bill bo. But really

1272
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:53,640
Speaker 4: the truth is that they're a much better team here

1273
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:56,840
Speaker 4: and viaconom has overperformed considerably. For them to be sitting

1274
00:57:56,840 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 4: in seventh right now on the table flatters them quite

1275
00:57:58,680 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 4: a bit, given that they're probably about ten or eleventh,

1276
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:03,480
Speaker 4: and that's probably where they're gonna end up falling in

1277
00:58:03,520 --> 00:58:04,760
Speaker 4: the future. So I want to get in on some

1278
00:58:04,800 --> 00:58:06,320
Speaker 4: of those fades, and so I'm going to be hopping

1279
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:08,200
Speaker 4: on Bill Bao drawing a bet at minus one.

1280
00:58:08,120 --> 00:58:11,840
Speaker 1: Ten BJ Anthony and I we don't have anything in league. Oh,

1281
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:13,800
Speaker 1: so let you take it away here with your favorite

1282
00:58:13,840 --> 00:58:16,440
Speaker 1: bet in Spain and then you can saunter over to France.

1283
00:58:16,800 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 2: Well let's I mean, this is just like a broken record.

1284
00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 2: We talk about it all the time. Let's try to

1285
00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:22,840
Speaker 2: builo on Barcelona once again. One of these days we're

1286
00:58:22,840 --> 00:58:25,520
Speaker 2: going to hit Barcelona, I can promise you that. But

1287
00:58:25,640 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 2: this match especially, they're finally going to be pretty much

1288
00:58:29,120 --> 00:58:31,200
Speaker 2: healthy coming into it, which hasn't been the case for

1289
00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:34,200
Speaker 2: a long time with Barcelona, and they you know, they've

1290
00:58:34,240 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 2: underperformed the season overall plus eight actual gold offerential versus

1291
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:40,160
Speaker 2: a plus thirteen point one expected gold differential. But they

1292
00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:43,280
Speaker 2: really really are improving under Shabby and his eight Las

1293
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 2: League matches in charge. Barcelona is averaging one point eight

1294
00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:48,720
Speaker 2: nine expected goals for match only allowing point nine to one.

1295
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:51,920
Speaker 2: Those are elite numbers in Europe's top five. And now

1296
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:54,200
Speaker 2: they add Farin Taurres, who made his debut in the

1297
00:58:54,240 --> 00:58:57,920
Speaker 2: Super Cup against Real Madrid and ped They'll also get

1298
00:58:57,960 --> 00:58:59,919
Speaker 2: Pedri back, who hasn't played it pretty much at all

1299
00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:03,440
Speaker 2: this season after having knee injury. So it's a really

1300
00:59:03,480 --> 00:59:05,880
Speaker 2: good spot for Barcelona on the road going up against

1301
00:59:05,960 --> 00:59:08,720
Speaker 2: and to flex their muscles against a really bad Alave's

1302
00:59:08,760 --> 00:59:12,920
Speaker 2: team that got pasted on Tuesday by Rial Bettis. They

1303
00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:14,920
Speaker 2: are one of the worst teams in La Liga and

1304
00:59:14,960 --> 00:59:17,120
Speaker 2: They've been one of the worst over the past few months.

1305
00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:19,360
Speaker 2: They're winless in their last nine matches and they've been

1306
00:59:19,360 --> 00:59:22,480
Speaker 2: out created seven point four expected goals to one point

1307
00:59:22,520 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 2: four to eight. There's just so many advantages for Barcelona

1308
00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:28,800
Speaker 2: in this match. They're pressing is going to wreak havoc

1309
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:31,480
Speaker 2: on Alavese. Barcelona's the best pressing team in Spain by

1310
00:59:31,480 --> 00:59:35,200
Speaker 2: passes per defensive action, while Alavese is seventeenth in that

1311
00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 2: same category. Offensively, Alave's pathetic at creating big scoring chances.

1312
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 2: They only have fourteen on the season, while Barcelona's all

1313
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:45,760
Speaker 2: the way up but forty. Alavese defensively allows around fourteen

1314
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:48,400
Speaker 2: shots for ninety abound fourteen box entries, which are both

1315
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 2: bottom three in Spain. Barcelona offensively top five and pretty

1316
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:56,400
Speaker 2: much every single offensive metric. So we're gonna take Barcelona

1317
00:59:56,440 --> 00:59:58,920
Speaker 2: spread minus one at plus one hundred. I have their

1318
00:59:58,920 --> 01:00:00,960
Speaker 2: spread protected at minus one point two to seven. So

1319
01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:02,520
Speaker 2: another by low Barcelona.

1320
01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 1: Michael, All right, Now take us to France, be Jay, Let's.

1321
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:09,640
Speaker 2: Go Bordeaux versus Strasbourg. Michael, you mentioned it last podcast,

1322
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:12,040
Speaker 2: but along with wat Fer, the only other team to

1323
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:14,960
Speaker 2: not have a clean sheet this season in Europe's top

1324
01:00:15,000 --> 01:00:18,560
Speaker 2: five leagues is Bordeaux because they've allowed fifty goals in

1325
01:00:18,640 --> 01:00:21,920
Speaker 2: twenty one matches. You know, their respected goals numbers are

1326
01:00:21,920 --> 01:00:24,160
Speaker 2: not as bad, you know, as their actuals are. They're

1327
01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:26,439
Speaker 2: still allowing one point nine three expected goals per match.

1328
01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:29,840
Speaker 2: But I mean Wren just hung six goals on him

1329
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:32,240
Speaker 2: this past weekend. It's just gone from bad to worse

1330
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:34,720
Speaker 2: for one of the more famous clubs in France. Now

1331
01:00:34,760 --> 01:00:37,640
Speaker 2: they get to face a really good Strasbourg offense that

1332
01:00:37,720 --> 01:00:39,800
Speaker 2: is averaging one point four eight none penalty expectables for

1333
01:00:39,840 --> 01:00:43,080
Speaker 2: match and it's created the most big scoring chances in France.

1334
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:50,200
Speaker 2: These two met on December first and Strasbourg absolutely thrashed Bordeaux.

1335
01:00:50,400 --> 01:00:52,160
Speaker 2: It was a they won five to two. They want

1336
01:00:52,240 --> 01:00:55,280
Speaker 2: unexpected goals through three point zero of zero point nine.

1337
01:00:55,280 --> 01:00:58,360
Speaker 2: They created four big scoring chances, forty one touches in

1338
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:01,760
Speaker 2: Bordeau's penalty area forty four progressive pass is just an

1339
01:01:01,800 --> 01:01:06,360
Speaker 2: absolute pasting Strasbourg. Since that five to two beat down, they've

1340
01:01:06,400 --> 01:01:08,600
Speaker 2: played four matches and league on and they have been

1341
01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:12,160
Speaker 2: in really really dominant form one three of their last

1342
01:01:12,160 --> 01:01:15,280
Speaker 2: four and I'll created their opponents nine point four expected

1343
01:01:15,320 --> 01:01:18,240
Speaker 2: goals to three point two, So this is another great

1344
01:01:18,240 --> 01:01:21,120
Speaker 2: spot for them to just beat up on an inferior opponent.

1345
01:01:21,160 --> 01:01:23,560
Speaker 2: I have them projected at MAUS one twenty seven, so

1346
01:01:24,080 --> 01:01:26,520
Speaker 2: I love the current price on them at plus one

1347
01:01:26,560 --> 01:01:26,960
Speaker 2: oh five.

1348
01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 1: All right, now, let's move on to our favorite section

1349
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:32,880
Speaker 1: of the show, our three favorite underdogs for the weekend.

1350
01:01:33,160 --> 01:01:34,520
Speaker 1: This is the part of the show where I will

1351
01:01:34,560 --> 01:01:37,040
Speaker 1: always warn you these bets are not for the faint

1352
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:39,520
Speaker 1: of heart, and mine is especially not for the faint

1353
01:01:39,560 --> 01:01:41,240
Speaker 1: of heart, because you're going to be taking on the

1354
01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:44,160
Speaker 1: best team in Europe, Manchester City. This is going to

1355
01:01:44,200 --> 01:01:46,240
Speaker 1: be a theme for me for the next two portions

1356
01:01:46,240 --> 01:01:49,520
Speaker 1: of the show. So much of handicapping does come down

1357
01:01:49,560 --> 01:01:52,200
Speaker 1: to the numbers, predictive metrics. We live by them, we

1358
01:01:52,240 --> 01:01:53,720
Speaker 1: go to sleep with them, we breathe them in, we

1359
01:01:53,760 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 1: eat them in the morning for breakfast, and that's what

1360
01:01:55,560 --> 01:01:58,240
Speaker 1: we use to make our decisions. But sometimes you just

1361
01:01:58,240 --> 01:02:01,560
Speaker 1: see a spot and you have to play into it.

1362
01:02:01,640 --> 01:02:03,480
Speaker 1: And this is what you're getting with Southampton and plus

1363
01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 1: nine to fifty nearly ten to one against Manchester City.

1364
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:10,080
Speaker 1: The Saints not only are they at home, but Manchester City.

1365
01:02:10,440 --> 01:02:13,280
Speaker 1: They have wrapped up the Premier League. Basically they just

1366
01:02:13,320 --> 01:02:16,600
Speaker 1: beat Chelsea. Before that, they beat Arsenal. Now they're going

1367
01:02:16,640 --> 01:02:18,960
Speaker 1: to the South Coast to play a team that's in

1368
01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:21,960
Speaker 1: the mid table and next weekend is an international break.

1369
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:25,200
Speaker 1: And as Anthony was saying earlier, City's form has started

1370
01:02:25,240 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 1: to dip a little bit. They're starting to just kind

1371
01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:32,000
Speaker 1: of malaise their way through these results. And that bodes

1372
01:02:32,040 --> 01:02:34,080
Speaker 1: well if you are like me and you want to

1373
01:02:34,120 --> 01:02:36,520
Speaker 1: be try to beat this team, and I think you're

1374
01:02:36,520 --> 01:02:38,280
Speaker 1: getting a great number on a team with a high

1375
01:02:38,280 --> 01:02:40,600
Speaker 1: ceiling in Southampton, a team that ken scorg, that can

1376
01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:45,439
Speaker 1: create offense, hopefully they can hold defensively. At nine plus

1377
01:02:45,520 --> 01:02:47,520
Speaker 1: nine to fifty, you just can't look away for Southampton.

1378
01:02:47,560 --> 01:02:50,080
Speaker 1: So that's how we'll start our three leg underdog parlay

1379
01:02:50,480 --> 01:02:53,480
Speaker 1: BJ something a little less insane from you.

1380
01:02:54,200 --> 01:02:56,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to go the opposite spectrum of that

1381
01:02:57,040 --> 01:02:59,080
Speaker 2: kind of I'm going to go with Brentford at a

1382
01:02:59,320 --> 01:03:01,360
Speaker 2: short part, shortest price we can do on this because

1383
01:03:01,360 --> 01:03:03,280
Speaker 2: we try to give out more than two to one

1384
01:03:03,440 --> 01:03:07,000
Speaker 2: at plus two five at home against Wolves. The Brentford

1385
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:10,439
Speaker 2: offense finally finally woke up today two point seven goals

1386
01:03:10,520 --> 01:03:13,640
Speaker 2: against Manchester United. They hadn't created over one expected goal

1387
01:03:13,640 --> 01:03:16,640
Speaker 2: in their previous five matches. This is a really good

1388
01:03:16,640 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 2: matchup for Thomas Frank's team in his heavy metal style

1389
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:23,000
Speaker 2: of football, because Wolves has been struggling versus teams that

1390
01:03:23,160 --> 01:03:25,680
Speaker 2: press them at a high rate. Their passes offensive pass

1391
01:03:25,760 --> 01:03:28,560
Speaker 2: per defensive action is below the Premier League average. And

1392
01:03:28,600 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 2: I understand they just scored three goals against Southampton and

1393
01:03:32,800 --> 01:03:35,000
Speaker 2: they created two point two expected goals, but this is

1394
01:03:35,040 --> 01:03:37,040
Speaker 2: a team that has only created over one expected goal

1395
01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 2: twice in their last eight matches. Plus Brentford, like we've

1396
01:03:41,520 --> 01:03:45,040
Speaker 2: talked about many times, plays so much better at home

1397
01:03:45,120 --> 01:03:47,440
Speaker 2: than they do on the road. So give me the

1398
01:03:47,480 --> 01:03:50,240
Speaker 2: Bees plus two oh five at home to grab all

1399
01:03:50,280 --> 01:03:51,960
Speaker 2: three points against Wolves.

1400
01:03:52,360 --> 01:03:54,840
Speaker 1: Anthony, what's your favorite on your dog this weekend?

1401
01:03:55,360 --> 01:04:00,919
Speaker 4: West Ham plus two eighty at Manchester United. United's team

1402
01:04:00,960 --> 01:04:03,880
Speaker 4: they put out today pretty concerningly average. They're not a

1403
01:04:03,880 --> 01:04:07,520
Speaker 4: ton of players who I'm particularly impressed by. They've had

1404
01:04:07,600 --> 01:04:10,320
Speaker 4: injury issues, they've had fom issues. I know Rashford got

1405
01:04:10,320 --> 01:04:10,880
Speaker 4: in the game and.

1406
01:04:10,840 --> 01:04:13,640
Speaker 3: Got a goal. Ronaldo was not happy at.

1407
01:04:13,520 --> 01:04:15,120
Speaker 4: The end of the game that he was subbed off,

1408
01:04:15,720 --> 01:04:18,640
Speaker 4: but Ronaldo also did absolutely nothing from pretty much the

1409
01:04:18,760 --> 01:04:20,920
Speaker 4: entire match. But really this is a matchup issue for

1410
01:04:21,000 --> 01:04:23,960
Speaker 4: man United. They struggled big time with west Ham earlier

1411
01:04:23,960 --> 01:04:26,200
Speaker 4: in the season. With west Ham's ability to get out

1412
01:04:26,240 --> 01:04:28,320
Speaker 4: in transition, ability to win the ball off them in

1413
01:04:28,360 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 4: the midfield. United doesn't seem to have fixed any of

1414
01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:34,280
Speaker 4: their transition defense issues as they showed today, as they've

1415
01:04:34,280 --> 01:04:37,720
Speaker 4: shown against Wolves. They've also benefited from a really weak

1416
01:04:37,760 --> 01:04:40,440
Speaker 4: schedule in the last month and not played well against

1417
01:04:40,440 --> 01:04:42,600
Speaker 4: that schedule. They're taking a step up in class here.

1418
01:04:43,240 --> 01:04:45,360
Speaker 4: Sounds weird to say for Manchester United, but it's true

1419
01:04:45,480 --> 01:04:47,720
Speaker 4: taking a step up in class in recent opponents. And

1420
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:51,200
Speaker 4: I think west Ham, given form, despite it not being

1421
01:04:51,240 --> 01:04:54,320
Speaker 4: great at the moment, plays better as a dog when

1422
01:04:54,320 --> 01:04:56,120
Speaker 4: they're able to let the other team have the ball

1423
01:04:56,360 --> 01:04:58,240
Speaker 4: and then count them off of it, as opposed to

1424
01:04:58,480 --> 01:05:00,320
Speaker 4: being a team that has to be in these nc

1425
01:05:00,480 --> 01:05:03,080
Speaker 4: with the ball They've they've struggled defensively in those situations.

1426
01:05:03,240 --> 01:05:05,400
Speaker 4: I think they'll be more equipped here as an underdog

1427
01:05:05,400 --> 01:05:06,000
Speaker 4: at plus two eighty.

1428
01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:07,000
Speaker 2: All right, now for.

1429
01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:11,480
Speaker 1: Our favorite EPL bets for the match week to come, Anthony,

1430
01:05:11,840 --> 01:05:12,720
Speaker 1: Let's go right back to you.

1431
01:05:13,040 --> 01:05:15,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, Chelsea and Tottenham both teams to score, yes, minus

1432
01:05:15,720 --> 01:05:18,760
Speaker 4: one ten. Pretty surprised by this number. I projected close

1433
01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:21,040
Speaker 4: er to minus one thirty one thirty five. When we

1434
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:24,240
Speaker 4: look at Tottenham, they've created an average of two point

1435
01:05:24,360 --> 01:05:27,600
Speaker 4: h nine expected goals per ninety since Antonio Conte took

1436
01:05:27,600 --> 01:05:30,040
Speaker 4: over as manager, and that was highlighted by four and

1437
01:05:30,080 --> 01:05:33,760
Speaker 4: a half expected goals against Lester on Wednesday. This attack

1438
01:05:33,800 --> 01:05:36,360
Speaker 4: is firing. Harry Kane looks great, but they're still not

1439
01:05:36,560 --> 01:05:39,480
Speaker 4: quite scoring and finishing those chances at the rate they

1440
01:05:39,480 --> 01:05:42,200
Speaker 4: were earlier in the season the one point four to

1441
01:05:42,280 --> 01:05:45,080
Speaker 4: three actual goals for so they've got some bounces coming

1442
01:05:45,120 --> 01:05:48,880
Speaker 4: their way, especially from Harry Kane. Specifically, they got bossed

1443
01:05:48,880 --> 01:05:51,000
Speaker 4: by Chelsea in both of the last two matches. I

1444
01:05:51,040 --> 01:05:54,120
Speaker 4: have concerns about their defense. They're a little bit shorthanded

1445
01:05:54,120 --> 01:05:56,600
Speaker 4: talent wise, they have some injury issues. So I think

1446
01:05:56,680 --> 01:05:58,440
Speaker 4: Chelsea will get on the board here and we'll probably

1447
01:05:58,480 --> 01:06:01,880
Speaker 4: control parts of this match. But Spurs, feeding off those

1448
01:06:01,960 --> 01:06:05,160
Speaker 4: last two losses to Chelsea, will be motivated here with

1449
01:06:05,240 --> 01:06:06,520
Speaker 4: a chance to get on the board, and I think

1450
01:06:06,520 --> 01:06:08,640
Speaker 4: both teams will, so I'm taking both teams to score

1451
01:06:08,680 --> 01:06:09,440
Speaker 4: minus one ten.

1452
01:06:09,880 --> 01:06:15,240
Speaker 1: Dunka in Duncan Ferguson. For me, it's evident plus one

1453
01:06:15,320 --> 01:06:18,800
Speaker 1: sixty five hosting aston Villa plus one seventy. This is

1454
01:06:18,800 --> 01:06:21,520
Speaker 1: seven thirty am kickoff on Saturday. Not only do I

1455
01:06:21,520 --> 01:06:24,360
Speaker 1: think this is a terrific spot to back Everton, a

1456
01:06:24,360 --> 01:06:28,120
Speaker 1: team that has just been discombobulated in terms of their tactics,

1457
01:06:28,120 --> 01:06:30,560
Speaker 1: who their manager has been for five six years. Getting

1458
01:06:30,640 --> 01:06:33,320
Speaker 1: them to just play a simple style of football, playing

1459
01:06:33,560 --> 01:06:36,840
Speaker 1: hard hard no style football, hard no style soccer should

1460
01:06:36,920 --> 01:06:38,600
Speaker 1: just do wonders for a team that does have a

1461
01:06:38,600 --> 01:06:43,400
Speaker 1: lot of talent. Overall evidence, expectacle differential is stronger. It's

1462
01:06:43,440 --> 01:06:46,240
Speaker 1: better on the season than aston Villa, who is coming here.

1463
01:06:46,400 --> 01:06:48,120
Speaker 1: I think we might see Villa get favored here, so

1464
01:06:48,160 --> 01:06:50,160
Speaker 1: this number might tick off even on evidence. But I

1465
01:06:50,200 --> 01:06:52,680
Speaker 1: love the opportunity to get a new manager, bounce on

1466
01:06:52,760 --> 01:06:55,520
Speaker 1: a team that you honestly couldn't buy lower on Right now,

1467
01:06:55,520 --> 01:06:58,200
Speaker 1: coming off a loss against Nord City, they just kick

1468
01:06:58,280 --> 01:07:01,280
Speaker 1: their manager to the curb, So give me the Toffees man.

1469
01:07:01,400 --> 01:07:04,919
Speaker 1: Goodison Parks should be rocking and rolling on Saturday, and

1470
01:07:05,000 --> 01:07:06,920
Speaker 1: I'm going to be there along for the ride. At

1471
01:07:06,960 --> 01:07:10,720
Speaker 1: plus one sixty five on everdon bj your favorite bet

1472
01:07:10,720 --> 01:07:11,880
Speaker 1: this week, Let's go to.

1473
01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:15,120
Speaker 2: Old Trafford, the theater of dreams. Manchester United west Ham

1474
01:07:15,240 --> 01:07:19,000
Speaker 2: over three goals at plus one twenty. West Ham defensively

1475
01:07:19,120 --> 01:07:23,160
Speaker 2: has not been themselves without Kurt Zooman, without Angelo Obana.

1476
01:07:23,560 --> 01:07:25,680
Speaker 2: Without either of them in the lineup, they're allowing one

1477
01:07:25,720 --> 01:07:28,040
Speaker 2: point five to three expected goals per match. With at

1478
01:07:28,120 --> 01:07:30,080
Speaker 2: least one of them in the lineup, they're only allowing

1479
01:07:30,120 --> 01:07:32,200
Speaker 2: one point one to two expect goals for match, so

1480
01:07:32,280 --> 01:07:33,840
Speaker 2: they make a huge difference. They're still going to be

1481
01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:36,520
Speaker 2: without them for this one, facing a Manchester United offense

1482
01:07:36,560 --> 01:07:39,920
Speaker 2: that has been pretty good under Ralph Ragnick. They've created

1483
01:07:39,920 --> 01:07:42,320
Speaker 2: around nine expected goals in his six matches in charge,

1484
01:07:42,320 --> 01:07:46,960
Speaker 2: but they haven't faced that strong of defenses. West Ham

1485
01:07:47,080 --> 01:07:49,600
Speaker 2: offensively is maybe the hottest team in the Premier League

1486
01:07:49,640 --> 01:07:52,400
Speaker 2: right now. They've created ten point seven expected goals in

1487
01:07:52,440 --> 01:07:54,880
Speaker 2: their last five matches. Jared Bowen looks like the most

1488
01:07:54,920 --> 01:07:57,960
Speaker 2: inform attacker in the Premier League, with three goals and

1489
01:07:58,000 --> 01:08:00,800
Speaker 2: three assists in his last five matches. In the Manchester

1490
01:08:00,880 --> 01:08:04,280
Speaker 2: United defense, it's had problems all season long. We thought

1491
01:08:04,360 --> 01:08:05,960
Speaker 2: Ralph Rogan was going to come in and fix it,

1492
01:08:06,000 --> 01:08:09,560
Speaker 2: but he hasn't done anything to fix it. Yes, they've

1493
01:08:09,560 --> 01:08:12,520
Speaker 2: allowed around eight point five expected goals in his six

1494
01:08:12,560 --> 01:08:14,680
Speaker 2: matches in charge, but the opponents that he's faced have

1495
01:08:14,760 --> 01:08:20,280
Speaker 2: been Norwich, Burnley, Newcastle, Wolves, Aston Villa and Brentford. What

1496
01:08:20,360 --> 01:08:22,719
Speaker 2: those teams have in common is they're all bottom twelve

1497
01:08:22,760 --> 01:08:25,799
Speaker 2: in the Premier League and expected goals for West Hamon's

1498
01:08:25,840 --> 01:08:28,960
Speaker 2: top five and expected goals for per match this season.

1499
01:08:29,000 --> 01:08:32,519
Speaker 2: So this is a massive, massive step up in competition.

1500
01:08:32,560 --> 01:08:33,960
Speaker 2: So I think it's gonna be a wide open, free

1501
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:36,960
Speaker 2: flowing type match. I have three point two goals projected,

1502
01:08:37,000 --> 01:08:38,880
Speaker 2: so I love the price of over three goals at

1503
01:08:38,880 --> 01:08:40,400
Speaker 2: plus one twenty all right.

1504
01:08:40,320 --> 01:08:43,519
Speaker 1: And that will do it for a supersized episode of Ornergal,

1505
01:08:43,680 --> 01:08:47,040
Speaker 1: but supersized for a reason. International break coming up next,

1506
01:08:47,120 --> 01:08:50,040
Speaker 1: so we won't be back until Thursday, February third, and

1507
01:08:50,080 --> 01:08:51,920
Speaker 1: when we do come back, Champions League will be right

1508
01:08:51,920 --> 01:08:53,639
Speaker 1: around the corner. So it would be a pretty fun

1509
01:08:53,680 --> 01:08:57,200
Speaker 1: time to be a soccer. Better for Anthony Dbundo, for

1510
01:08:57,240 --> 01:08:59,960
Speaker 1: b J Cunningham. I'm Michaeliba. Good luck with your soccer.

1511
01:09:00,040 --> 01:09:01,720
Speaker 1: That's this weekend