1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,800 Speaker 1: On this episode of Newts World. The recent ceasefire negotiations 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: between Ukraine and Russia, led by the Trump administration, have 3 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 1: challenged the traditional way we negotiate with our allies and adversaries. 4 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 1: President Trump's Special envoy, Steve Whitcoff, has visited Moscow met 5 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 1: with Putin about what it would take to agree to 6 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: a ceasefire. Putin presented a list of demands. Appears some 7 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 1: progress may have been made in a phone call between 8 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 1: Trump and Putin. They agreed to quote an energy and 9 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 1: infrastructure ceasefire which may or may not be actually being 10 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:42,919 Speaker 1: held here to discuss when negotiations stand with the potential 11 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: Ukraine Russia seasfire. I'm really pleased to welcome back my 12 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: guest and good friend, one of the most knowledgeable people 13 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 1: and one of the most active people on foreign policy 14 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: and the survival of America, Cliff May, founder and President 15 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: of the Foundation for Defensive Democracies. His recent hop ed 16 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: Trump's Ukraine diplomacy faces Putin test was featured in The 17 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: Washington Times on March eighteenth. I must say I also 18 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 1: sent it out to everybody I have on accent on 19 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 1: true social Cliff, welcome and thank you. For joining me 20 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 1: again on News World. 21 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 2: Thanks Nu, it always great to be with you. 22 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,040 Speaker 1: Before we get into specifics, would you just take a 23 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: minute to tell our listeners what is the Foundation for 24 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: Defensive Democracies. 25 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a think tank that was set up just 26 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 2: after the attacks of nine to eleven oh one. The 27 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 2: reason is called the Foundation for Defense of Democracies was 28 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 2: based on the idea that democratic societies, free nations are 29 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 2: under threat. And in two thousand and one, two thousand 30 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 2: and two, we thought that threat was mostly from non 31 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 2: state actors, from it Islamists and Jihattists. Those were new 32 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 2: words back then. Is worse than that today. In two 33 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 2: thousand and one, everybody kind of thought Russia would be, 34 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 2: you know, like become like Poland, it would become more European, 35 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 2: more liberal, more moderate. That's not happened over the more 36 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 2: than twenty years that Putin's been in power. And in 37 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 2: two thousand and one, you remember Knut, we gave most 38 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 2: Favored Nation status to communists China brought them into the 39 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 2: wto again they can say to be generous. The great 40 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 2: experiment there was. Once China became wealthier thanks to us, 41 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 2: it would become more modern, more liberal more of a 42 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 2: friend that also didn't happen, and instead what you have 43 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 2: now is at access of aggressors Shijinping in Beijing, Vadimir 44 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 2: Putin in Moscow, Ali Kameni and Tehran, and Kim Jongan 45 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 2: in Pianyang, North Korea, and they threatened the United States 46 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 2: and other democratic, free societies. That's kind of what we 47 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 2: concentrate on. 48 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: Well, and you have a team of experts who were 49 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 1: collectively remarkable and many of them very knowledgeable with practical 50 00:02:58,440 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 1: experience in the field. 51 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 2: Yes, I mean it's a monthly crew of former academics, 52 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 2: former spies, former government officials, a few inkstainted wretches like myself. 53 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 2: As you know, I used to be a foreign correspondent 54 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 2: for the New York Times and other publications during better days. 55 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 2: I would say. 56 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 1: Better days for them too. 57 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 2: Yeah. 58 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:21,119 Speaker 1: Yeah, they've unfortunately gone off the rails almost as much 59 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 1: as the rest of the planet. So on March eleventh, 60 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 1: the United States and Ukraine released a joint statement after 61 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: a meeting in Saudi Arabia where Ukraine agreed to an 62 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: immediate thirty day seasefare and the United States would immediately 63 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 1: lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance 64 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 1: to Ukraine. What do you think this particular statement means 65 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 1: for the future negotiations? 66 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 2: Not a lot. As you know, the Ukrainian president, Volodomir Zelenski, 67 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 2: he got his arms twisted by President Trump and said, Okay, 68 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 2: I agree no conditions, a thirty day absolute cease fire. 69 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 2: I'll do it. That's fine. I'll go do the rarer 70 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 2: mineral deal with you. I'll do that. That's fine. Basically, 71 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 2: so whatever you say, mister Trump. But Putin hasn't said that. 72 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 2: Putin has said, you know, if you want me to 73 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 2: go into a ceasefire, there are certain preconditions I want 74 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 2: you to meet. I'll give you the list. And he 75 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 2: never stopped firing, and he's not agreed to a cease fire. 76 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 2: And my contention is that he can be made to 77 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 2: do so, but that will require that President Trump also 78 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 2: twist his arm, and I do think that's possible. I 79 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 2: think President Trump had it just to use a Trumpian phrase, 80 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 2: he's got the cards to play. He just got to 81 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 2: play them. He'd rather not perhaps he'd rather just be 82 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 2: all very smooth and cooperative. It's not going to be 83 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 2: you have to twist Putin's arm if you want to 84 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 2: get a ceasefire, and that would be a reasonably good thing. 85 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 1: I think it's clear that right now we don't have 86 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:53,360 Speaker 1: his attention. He thinks he can just keep moving forward 87 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:58,039 Speaker 1: on his own terms and that somehow will crumble in 88 00:04:58,120 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 1: the face of his tenacity. 89 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:02,599 Speaker 2: He's very good at that. He wouldn't be in power 90 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 2: for more than twenty years in that country if that's 91 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 2: not the case. He is a retired or former KGB 92 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 2: lieutenant colonel. He knows what he is doing, and he 93 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,840 Speaker 2: is saying, and not truthfully, my economy's fine. I'm not 94 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 2: really worried. I've got plenty of ammunition, and he is 95 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 2: getting ammunition, munitions from North Korea. He's getting missiles from Tehran. 96 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 2: He's getting due use technology from China. There are reputable 97 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:30,359 Speaker 2: economic and military analysts who would say that his economy 98 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 2: is suffering badly, that he doesn't have enough bodies to 99 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 2: grow on the front line and try to pave over 100 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 2: inches of Ukraine. He might actually like a ceasefire to 101 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 2: build up his forces to rearm, to regroup, but he 102 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 2: doesn't want Ukraine doing the same thing. And if there's 103 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 2: a ceasefire, that's exactly what Ukraine needs to do. It 104 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 2: needs to get heavily rearmed. It needs to establish deterran 105 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 2: capabilities it didn't have three years ago, largely because Biden 106 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:01,239 Speaker 2: and before him. While AAMA didn't want to give Ukraine 107 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 2: lethal weapons, Trump did, including javelins, anti tank weapons, and 108 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 2: we want Ukraine to become what is called these days 109 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 2: a porcupine. Hard difficult for a predator to digest well. 110 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: Trump at times seems to be too soft on Putin, 111 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 1: both in cutting off the second natural guess pipeline and 112 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: in providing the javelins, which may have been the key 113 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 1: weapon that stopped the initial Russian offensive. The Putin probably 114 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:34,279 Speaker 1: doesn't regard Trump as a patsy or immediate ally, but 115 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 1: he's going to shove him and see how far he 116 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: can shove him. 117 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 2: Yes, he's very good at that. Steve Whitcoff was made 118 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 2: envoy and has met with Putin and then went on 119 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 2: Tucker Carlson's show. A lot of what Witkoff said struck 120 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 2: me as well. He's getting, how to say, played by 121 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin when he says things like I think Putin 122 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 2: is satisfied with the territory he has, and aren't those 123 00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 2: really Russian territories anyway, Well, he's not satisfied. We know 124 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 2: that about him. I can talk to you about reason 125 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,600 Speaker 2: about the evidence we have, but it's substantial farthest being 126 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 2: Russian territories. That can only be said to be the 127 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 2: case based on what almost everybody, including the Institute for 128 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 2: the Study of War would say are sham referendums that 129 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 2: took place in those areas, plus Russians being moved in 130 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 2: and Ukrainians either fleeing or otherwise moving out. My cards 131 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 2: on the table, I would like to see Putin defeated 132 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 2: in this. I would like to see Ukraine regain sovereign 133 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 2: independence through all of its borders. I don't think that's 134 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 2: likely at this point, but I think if President Trump 135 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 2: can get a ceasefire along the current lines of control, 136 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 2: that means like twenty percent eighteen percent really of Ukraine 137 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 2: would be taken over by Russia, the eastern portion and Crimea, 138 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 2: which was taken in two thousand and fourteen by Russia, 139 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 2: and you freeze the conflict. That's probably good enough at 140 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 2: this point, as good as you're going to get. Keep 141 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 2: in mind, frozen conflicts can last a long time. North 142 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 2: Korea and South Korea are not at peace. It's a 143 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 2: frozen conflict. And South Korea has done very well in 144 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 2: the meantime, and North Korea is a terrible place. And 145 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 2: that's fifty three years that we've had a frozen conflict. 146 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 2: Of course, kept frozen, not least by what are now 147 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 2: about twenty eight thousand American troops in South Korea. 148 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 1: The pattern there, it seems to me, is exactly what 149 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 1: Putin doesn't want. She makes pretty clear at one point 150 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 1: the Ukraine's not allowed to have foreign armies on the soil, 151 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 1: but the Ukraine's not allowed to rebuild its military, et cetera. 152 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:36,559 Speaker 1: It's kind of like, will allow the baby lamb to 153 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: lay there for a while until we think it's time 154 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 1: to eat it. 155 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 2: That's exactly right, and I think there Trump has to 156 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 2: get a little bit tough with them and say that's 157 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 2: not the way it's going to be. The Europeans have 158 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 2: been stepping up in the sense that the British and 159 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 2: the French have said we can send in peacekeepers. I 160 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:54,240 Speaker 2: think Trump should take that as a victory for him. 161 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 2: He's been demanding since his last term that Europeans take 162 00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 2: more responsibility. They're making an effort. Good for them, Let 163 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,079 Speaker 2: them do that. We have about half a dozen nations 164 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 2: who have written to the European Commission Lafia, Lithuania, Poland 165 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 2: others saying let's expedite Ukraine's admission to the European Union. Wow, 166 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,559 Speaker 2: good for them. That's also very helpful. Well, if we 167 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 2: have to understand about Putin, and let me say this 168 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 2: as somebody who's been studying this for a rather long time. 169 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 2: I first went to Russia when I was a teenager 170 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:25,960 Speaker 2: in nineteen sixty nine. I've been there as a foreign 171 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 2: exchange student in Soviet times. I've been there as a journalist. 172 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 2: I was also an election observer in Ukraine at its 173 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,439 Speaker 2: most recent elections. I feel like I've been a Putinologist 174 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 2: for the past twenty years. So let me tell you 175 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 2: who he is and what he wants. He sees himself 176 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 2: as the Tsar and his mission as the Tsar, and 177 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 2: I understand this is to restore the Russian Empire and 178 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 2: to be the czar and to restore the Russian Empire. 179 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 2: What does that mean? You must be the Tsar and 180 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 2: I'm using Russian phraseology here, the Tsar of all the Russias. 181 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 2: What does all the Russias mean, well, it means Russia. 182 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:03,479 Speaker 2: It means russ translates its white Russia. It means Ukrain 183 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:07,960 Speaker 2: translates its frontier of Russia. That's essential. But then you 184 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 2: want whatever else you can get, including the Baltic states, 185 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,559 Speaker 2: which you'll remember, and this is interesting in this regard 186 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 2: nineteen forty the Baltics Exitstonia, Latvia, Lithuania. The Soviet Union 187 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 2: took them over. The US never recognized that, and they 188 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:25,319 Speaker 2: were vassal states for a very long time until the 189 00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 2: Soviet Union fell. Belarus is now a vassal state of Russia. 190 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 2: Already in two thousand and eight, Putin took two provinces 191 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 2: away from neighboring Georgia, which was also part of the 192 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 2: Soviet Empire and before that part of the Russian Empire. 193 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 2: Nineteen thirty nine, the Soviet Union tried to drag Finland 194 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 2: back into the Russian Empire. At the end of the day, 195 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 2: the Russians got ten percent of Villain's territory, but Finland 196 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:52,199 Speaker 2: never gave up its independence, and two years ago he 197 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 2: joined NATO. So that's what's going on. Putin is a 198 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:57,319 Speaker 2: man in his seventies. He has more money than he 199 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:00,079 Speaker 2: can ever spend. He gets to kill his enemies, his 200 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 2: critics with impunity. He has a girlfriend half his age. 201 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,559 Speaker 2: She's a rhythmic gymnast. I don't really know what that means, 202 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 2: but it sounds intriguing. And he wants to be a 203 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 2: czar in the mold of maybe Alexander the Great, maybe 204 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 2: Ivan the Terrible. 205 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 1: His self image was either Peter the Great. 206 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 2: Peter the Great established what became known as Leningrad now Petersburg. 207 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:25,199 Speaker 2: Again that was very much looking westward because it was 208 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:29,079 Speaker 2: a westward capital. The most important influence on Putin is 209 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:33,680 Speaker 2: a political philosopher by the name of Alexander Dugan, who 210 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 2: is a Eurasianist, and his theory, his belief is that 211 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 2: Russia is not a European power, never was. It's a 212 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 2: Eurasian power, much more aligned with, for example, China than 213 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 2: with Europe. And he said the European values and American values, tolerance, freedom, 214 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 2: those are not Russian values, never were. Should not be 215 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 2: seen as that we should not be looking west or 216 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 2: going west. We're something very different. Hates America. I got 217 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 2: quote from him on that this is an important point. Yes, 218 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 2: Dugan sees America and Europe is degenerate. And there are 219 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 2: some of the Americans who are right of center people 220 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,560 Speaker 2: you and I know who think because we also think 221 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 2: this too much generously in America and Europe. Therefore, Dugan 222 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 2: and therefore Putin, they're kind of on our side. They're 223 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 2: traditional values and Christians. It's not true. It's not true. Yes, 224 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:26,000 Speaker 2: we may agree with them that we shouldn't have boys 225 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 2: playing volleyballs on girls team, but Ali Kamani thinks that too, 226 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:32,959 Speaker 2: I'm sure, as does Kim Jong Lun. That doesn't make 227 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 2: them our allies. 228 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 1: To build on that. It's interesting that Soldier needs them. 229 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 1: Maybe the greatest Russian writer of the last century, after 230 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: leaving the Zola Union, coming to live in Vermont writing 231 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 1: his extraordinary series on the Russian Revolution, finally goes back 232 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 1: home because in fact, he sort of would agree. The 233 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:13,680 Speaker 1: West is not Russia. The West is this kind of 234 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: degenerate place where people have no discipline, no order, no structure, 235 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 1: no sense of the mystery of life. I don't think 236 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 1: he'd approve a Putent, but I think that he would 237 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 1: have some reverence for a Czar like structured environment. 238 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 2: I think that's exactly right. What you've expressed is a 239 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 2: nuanced understanding, and I fear there are some of our friends, 240 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,199 Speaker 2: and not least in this administration, who don't have quite 241 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 2: that nuanced understanding of why. I mean. I liked Sosis 242 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 2: and as a writer, I got to meet him one 243 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 2: time when I was studying Russian actually in Vermont. There's 244 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 2: a Russian school at Norwich University up there that I 245 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 2: spent a summer. It was a very interesting thing to do. 246 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 2: But yes, this goes beyond to take a very antagonistic 247 00:13:56,400 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 2: and hostile attitude towards America and the West. You know, 248 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 2: if you ask yourself, and I really do believe there 249 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:07,599 Speaker 2: is this axis of aggressors between Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyanyang. 250 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 2: What do they have in common. It's not ideology. It's 251 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 2: really hostility towards America and the West and the desire 252 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 2: to displace America as the pre eminent world power and 253 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 2: to have a new world order. And they talk about 254 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 2: this a new world order that they lead and America 255 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 2: becomes a has been empire. 256 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 1: But there's a different part of this, which is, while 257 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 1: they may not be a European country, I really question 258 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: in the long run their capacity to truly be allied 259 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 1: to China simply because of the underlying mythical sense of 260 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 1: the Mongol yoke and the degree to which still almost 261 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 1: a thousand years later, the experience of the Mongols was 262 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 1: so horrifying destroyed Kiov Moscow rises only because it's in 263 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 1: the middle of the forest and not worth the Mongol's effort. 264 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 2: Very important point, and let me talk about this just 265 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 2: one second. You're right, and that's traditionally the way the 266 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 2: Russians sought anybody from Asia. But Dugan kind of takes 267 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 2: the attitude, No, we do have Mongol roots in part, 268 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 2: and we should be proud of that. The whole concept 269 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 2: of the Russian Empire that arose immediately following the Mongol Empire, 270 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 2: the idea of cons They really replicated that the czar 271 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 2: was sort of a long Mongol alliance. 272 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 1: This is true too. 273 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 2: Over the long run, Russian and China are not in 274 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 2: good alliance. At some point, the leader in Beijing is 275 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 2: going to look north and say, the Russians don't have 276 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 2: many people, they have a lot of resources. I have 277 00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 2: many people in many resources. Why is Vladivostok Russian? And 278 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 2: what does Vladivostok mean? Vlad has in Vladimir means conqueror, 279 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 2: Vastok means East, Vladivostok means conqueror of the East. But 280 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 2: that's long term. Right now, the Russians are getting use 281 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 2: technology from China, but also giving China various technological help 282 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 2: where they can, making China a stronger power and reducing 283 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 2: the delta between Chinese power and Russian power. That would 284 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 2: not appear to be in their interest, but I think 285 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 2: Putin thinks I have to do what I have to 286 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 2: do now, and we'll worry about what happens twenty thirty, 287 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 2: forty years from now later. Some people say, well, it's 288 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 2: only a transactional alliance. It is, but it's more than that, 289 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 2: because again they want the United States displaced in the world. 290 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 2: And just one more point about world order. It's a 291 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 2: funny phrase, for sure, but there always is a world 292 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 2: order of some sort. Like a fish not being aware 293 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 2: of water. Most Americans not aware of what the world 294 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 2: order is, and the world order since the end of 295 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 2: World War Two has been one in which America has 296 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 2: essentially dominated with a light hand, but dominated trying to 297 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 2: use international law on that sort of thing, rather than 298 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 2: just saying we make the rules. Beijing Moscow, Tehran, Pianyang. 299 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 2: They all see that and they want to displace it. 300 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 2: And what the way they say is we need a 301 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 2: multipolar world. Isn't that fairer? And that appeals to a 302 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 2: lot of people on the left. You have multipolar world, 303 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,640 Speaker 2: not you know, American hegemony. Oh, America is imperialists who 304 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:07,960 Speaker 2: know America needs to be the premianive power in the 305 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:11,159 Speaker 2: world because if it's not a very bad power like 306 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:14,959 Speaker 2: that in Beijing will become Communist Party of China is 307 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 2: the most powerful communist party in the world if they 308 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:20,439 Speaker 2: end up dominant. Can we really say we won the 309 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 2: Cold War or was there just a hiatus after a 310 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 2: particularly important battle. 311 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 1: Yeah, we won the subsidiary fight. Putin who also learned 312 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,399 Speaker 1: some lessons from Gorbachev, one of which I think was 313 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 1: that killing your opponents is better than losing control. 314 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 2: And that's a lesson from Stalin, right. Stalin part of 315 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,439 Speaker 2: his success was he didn't just kill his enemies. He 316 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 2: killed those who might someday become his enemies. Why take 317 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 2: a chance? 318 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 1: What did he say at one point that one death 319 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: is a tragedy, a million deaths as a statistic. That's 320 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: exactly what he said and of course he's a Georgian, 321 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 1: so further proof that the original Empire included the country 322 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 1: of Georgia. 323 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,439 Speaker 2: Very unusual for there to be Zar or communist leaders 324 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,639 Speaker 2: who were not actually Russian, but he was one of 325 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,399 Speaker 2: the great exceptions to that. Absolutely for sure. 326 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 1: And I suspect Putin admires him. 327 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,479 Speaker 2: I think we know that he does. I don't think 328 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 2: Putin's a communist again, he's more along the lines of 329 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 2: Alexander Dugan in terms of Eurasianism and Russia's soul. 330 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 1: I think he admires his use of power. 331 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 2: He absolutely admires his use of power. And by the way, 332 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:25,720 Speaker 2: that keep in mind, one of the things, not all, 333 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,959 Speaker 2: one of the reasons why Ukrainians do not want to 334 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 2: be ruled by the Kremlin is what Stalin did to 335 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 2: them in the nineteen thirties by imposing a famine on them, 336 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 2: a man made famine made by Stalin that killed at 337 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 2: least three million Ukrainians, was particularly directed at what they 338 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 2: call the kula ki, which means what they would call 339 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 2: the rich peasants. What is a rich peasant. It's a 340 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 2: farmer who does well because he works hard, and they 341 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,440 Speaker 2: stole all the grain from them and left them to die. 342 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,440 Speaker 2: Is a wonderful movie I always recommended called Mister Jones, 343 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 2: which had a journalist who goes there and manages to 344 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,639 Speaker 2: break free of his minder. As a journalist, you always 345 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 2: get a minder in Russia and go to the Ukraine 346 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 2: and see for himself that the famine is taking place, which, 347 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 2: sadly the New York Times at that point was not reporting. 348 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 1: The description in that movie of the Western reporters gathering 349 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,639 Speaker 1: together to protect Stalin. Make sure that none of them 350 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 1: reported accurately. 351 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,679 Speaker 2: In the townhouse of Walter Duranti, who was the New 352 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:29,239 Speaker 2: York Times correspondent who won a Pulitzer Prize for his 353 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,159 Speaker 2: distorted reporting on Stalin. 354 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:33,359 Speaker 1: I'd say it's one of the three times that The 355 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 1: New York Times has won Pulitzer Prizes for being totally dishonest, 356 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: none of which have ever been returned, of course. But 357 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:42,439 Speaker 1: let me go back to Putin and Ukraine. It seems 358 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:44,680 Speaker 1: to me that what Putin's trying for us is a 359 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 1: little bit like a great bluff and poker is he'd 360 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 1: be happy to have a temporary ceasefire while he rebuilt 361 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: his forces. Well, Ukraine was blocked from doing anything to 362 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: strengthen itself. Under those circumstances, he wouldn't mind having a seasefare. 363 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:02,520 Speaker 1: But they're very clear that bringing in the British of 364 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 1: the French, strengthening the Ukrainian military, doing anything which enabled 365 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:12,320 Speaker 1: Ukraine to survive, would in fact be totally unacceptable. Which 366 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 1: is not a taste fire. It's a surrender negotiation, that's right. 367 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 2: And that's where Trump will have to get tough and 368 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 2: have to say, I understand what you want, Bladdy, I 369 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,879 Speaker 2: get it, but you got to understand my economy is 370 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,879 Speaker 2: about thirtain size and signs of yours, and I can 371 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,439 Speaker 2: do devastating things to the Russian economy if I want to, 372 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 2: I cut off your oil sales to Europe, even to China. 373 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,879 Speaker 2: I can do that with secondary sanctions, and you're going 374 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 2: to be in big trouble and you don't want that. 375 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 2: I'm not angry with you, Flattie, but you know, don't 376 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,120 Speaker 2: make me angry. We're going to do this my way, okay. 377 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 2: And then if you do it my way, you know, 378 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 2: all kinds of good things canna happen for you, all 379 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:46,879 Speaker 2: kinds you know. I can bring it back into the 380 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,639 Speaker 2: G seven and come the GA I can lift sanctions. 381 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 2: I don't want to twist your arm, but I'm going 382 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 2: to twist your arm if you make me so. This 383 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 2: is an independent country, it's a member of the UN. 384 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 2: We recognize it, we had an embassy there. You can 385 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,359 Speaker 2: keep the land you have. Know I may not recognize it, 386 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 2: but you can keep it. But no more than that. Okay, 387 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 2: no more than that. And let's stop the killing. And 388 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:07,679 Speaker 2: we're gonna do it my way. And if we, as 389 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 2: an independent country want to sell arms to Ukraine, maybe 390 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,879 Speaker 2: the Europeans pay for it. We can do that. You 391 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 2: don't tell us now. If the British want to send 392 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,199 Speaker 2: troops in there as peacekeepers, they can get to do that. 393 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 2: It's not your land where you're occupying, but it'll be 394 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:25,160 Speaker 2: along the line. Be cooperative. But you got to understand. 395 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,680 Speaker 2: I twisted Zelenski's arm real hard. I want to be fair, 396 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 2: but I'm going to twist yours too if you don't 397 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:32,640 Speaker 2: come along with me on this really hard. 398 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 1: One of the interesting challenges of the Trump presidency is 399 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 1: going to be this moment of coming to grips with 400 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:58,120 Speaker 1: the fact that he has to get Putin's attention. Somebody 401 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,679 Speaker 1: sent me a know, which I thought was really insightful. 402 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 1: That said, one of Putin's great achievements is he is 403 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 1: guaranteed the remilitarization of Germany. Yeah, and they said to me, 404 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 1: you would think after nineteen fourteen and nineteen forty one, 405 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: this would not be a. 406 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 2: Good idea, not be a good idea, And the idea 407 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 2: of Finland and Sweden, who have always said, well, we're neutral, 408 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 2: we're neutral joining NATO, that's not what he had on 409 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 2: is to do list because now there are NATO members 410 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 2: on Russian borders where there were not before. This is 411 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 2: not a success now. I would say that Trump understands 412 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 2: that and is trying very hard not to humiliate Putin 413 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 2: because he doesn't want Putin overthrown. He doesn't want to 414 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,439 Speaker 2: deal with whatever might come next. He'd rather he just 415 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 2: get along with Putin and give Putin the opportunity to say, 416 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 2: to the hyper hypernationalists, who are many who might threaten him, 417 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,919 Speaker 2: he's very good at protecting himself, say, look, Russia is 418 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 2: bigger now than it was when I came into office. 419 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 2: I've got some land. I kind of showed them, I've 420 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,240 Speaker 2: got part of Georgia, I've got part of Ukraine, Belarus. 421 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 2: If I want to make Belarus part of the Russian Federation, 422 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 2: I can do so as well. So you know I 423 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 2: haven't done so bad. Let's take a rest and see 424 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,400 Speaker 2: Trump's in office for what four years? After that? Who knows, 425 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 2: maybe we get some softy and I can move again. 426 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:18,520 Speaker 2: Don't forget. Putin never moved against none of his neighbors 427 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,240 Speaker 2: while Trump was in office for the first four years, 428 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,119 Speaker 2: and they were all softies. Two thousand and eight he 429 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 2: moves into Georgia. What does Obama do in two thousand 430 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 2: and nine, Oh, let's have a reset. It's fine, we 431 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 2: forgive you, we can get along. Let's talk about things 432 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 2: we can cooperate on. The reset was a total total farce. 433 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 2: And then what happens twenty fourteen? He invades Crimea and 434 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:46,359 Speaker 2: annext is it? And then in twenty twenty two, what 435 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,639 Speaker 2: does Biden say, if this is only a minor incursion, Eh, 436 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,400 Speaker 2: it's okay. Just make it minor so that I don't 437 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,360 Speaker 2: have to get upset with it. And he didn't make 438 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,720 Speaker 2: it minor. He sent his tanks heading for Kiev, and 439 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 2: as you pointed out, the javelins sent by Trump helped 440 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 2: prevent one of the reasons those tanks didn't arrive at 441 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,679 Speaker 2: their destination where their mission was to take over the capital, 442 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 2: kill the president, and install a puppet government. 443 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 1: Now that we are where we are, if you were 444 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,640 Speaker 1: the National Security Advisor, which today would be a little 445 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: bit more challenging than three days ago, but if you 446 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 1: ended up with that, what would your strategic implementation list 447 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 1: be for bringing enough pain to putin that you had 448 00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 1: his attention. 449 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,920 Speaker 2: We've actually begun this work at FDD and we're putting 450 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 2: together a memorial exactly those lines. What it specifies are 451 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 2: exactly the economic sanctions necessary, including secondary sanctions to strangle 452 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 2: the Russian economy, and let Putin know that these are 453 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 2: the sanctions we are going to implement if we don't 454 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 2: get your cooperation. In addition to that, again, I would 455 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 2: say you were to go further, but also important, here 456 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,040 Speaker 2: are the weapons we're going to supply. The flow of 457 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 2: weapons will be greater again the Europeans can pay for it, 458 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,199 Speaker 2: or there's three hundred billion dollars in Russian assets in 459 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,399 Speaker 2: Europe that are frozen that could be confiscated. I would 460 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:12,120 Speaker 2: make the case. Others have. Neil Ferguson, a historian, has 461 00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 2: that money should be used for rearmament and reparations in Ukraine, 462 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:19,280 Speaker 2: and that can be done as well. And that would 463 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 2: make it so that any morning that Putin wakes up 464 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 2: and the Kremlin looks out and things, let's invade Ukraine, 465 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,360 Speaker 2: he thinks today's not a good day for that. That's 466 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,240 Speaker 2: essentially and again we're going to put together exactly that memo, 467 00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:30,919 Speaker 2: and we do intend to give it to the National 468 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 2: Security Advisor and say consider this. If this is threatened, 469 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,160 Speaker 2: I think Putin caves and if he doesn't do it, 470 00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 2: and then Putin will certainly have to cave because if 471 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,199 Speaker 2: he can't sell oil, Look, he doesn't make enough on 472 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:46,520 Speaker 2: vodka and fur hats to support his military. It's got 473 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 2: to be oil. And we can stop the flow of 474 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 2: oil through sanctions. 475 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:54,240 Speaker 1: You know, it's astonishing that the Europeans buy more from 476 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,680 Speaker 1: Russia and oil than they give to Ukraine. 477 00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,199 Speaker 2: Right away, that tells you that stops immediately and at 478 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,440 Speaker 2: the point where the Europeans will say, okay, we get that. 479 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,960 Speaker 2: It helps that the US under Trump is talking about 480 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 2: and creating energy dominance here at home through fracking, through LNG, 481 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:15,439 Speaker 2: through LNG sales natural gas. Now that's happening. We can 482 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 2: give other possibilities to the Europeans so they don't need 483 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 2: to depend on the oil and gas coming from Russia anymore. 484 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:24,880 Speaker 2: And they would like us to sit down with them. 485 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,120 Speaker 2: You're going to cut that off immediately. That's the low 486 00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 2: hanging fruit you're buying. No more oil and gas from 487 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:31,120 Speaker 2: them will get you other things. This is going into 488 00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 2: spring and summer. It's a little bit better that Europeans 489 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 2: have made terrible mistakes Germans closing down nuclear power facilities. 490 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 2: They ended up buying coal from South Africa. A lot 491 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,400 Speaker 2: of problems with the Europeans. I understand why people like JD. 492 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:47,120 Speaker 2: Vans are so skeptical about the Europeans at this point. 493 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 2: I do understand, but I don't want to myself. I 494 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:51,639 Speaker 2: think you agree, but tell me if you don't. I 495 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 2: don't want to give up on them as allies. I 496 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 2: want to make them better allies. I think Trump is 497 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:59,679 Speaker 2: kind of doing that by saying you have to contribute 498 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 2: meaning fully to the collective defense of the West. You 499 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,439 Speaker 2: cannot expect us as an entitlement, to take care of 500 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,679 Speaker 2: you while you do whatever the hell you want. I 501 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:10,960 Speaker 2: believe that we should have allies, but they can do 502 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,120 Speaker 2: more than they're doing, but they're doing better, a little better. 503 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,360 Speaker 1: Just to sort of wrap up for a second, if 504 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 1: you had to guess, do you think it is likely 505 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 1: that six months from now will have some kind of 506 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 1: a stable sease fire. 507 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:27,879 Speaker 2: It all depends on President Trump. There are a lot 508 00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:31,400 Speaker 2: of people who think he likes admires Putin too much. 509 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,359 Speaker 2: I think that Steve Whitcoff sounded how shall I say, 510 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:39,040 Speaker 2: credulous in his dealings with him on many levels, saying 511 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,920 Speaker 2: Putin's not such a bad guy. Putin prayed for Trump 512 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 2: when Trump was shot, He went to his priests and 513 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,640 Speaker 2: cares about his friend. I just found that kind of goible. 514 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 2: If Trump will pressure Putin properly, then I think we 515 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,879 Speaker 2: will end up with exactly what you say, a ceasefire 516 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,119 Speaker 2: and a frozen conflict, and that's the way it'll be 517 00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:58,920 Speaker 2: for a while, and that would be a good thing. 518 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,439 Speaker 2: But if not, if Putin gets to push everybody around, 519 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 2: and for whatever reason, Trump doesn't push back, then this 520 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,359 Speaker 2: war will go on and it'll get worse in various ways. 521 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,280 Speaker 2: And I can't tell you all the ways that it 522 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:12,000 Speaker 2: could unfold. 523 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 1: I have always admired your leadership at the Foundation for 524 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 1: Devins and Monks. I frankly admire your personal leadership and 525 00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 1: your personal commitment to the survival of freedom, and Cliff, 526 00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 1: I just want to thank you for joining me. I 527 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 1: want our listeners to know that they can visit the 528 00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:35,720 Speaker 1: Foundation for Defensive Democracy's website at FDD dot org, and 529 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 1: we're going to put both your website and the movie 530 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 1: on our show page. Thank you so much for being 531 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 1: with us. 532 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,120 Speaker 2: My pleasure always great to be with you, Newton. I've 533 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 2: admired you and been your friend, I hope for many years. 534 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, Cliffmay you can get a 535 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,840 Speaker 1: link to Foundation for Defensive Democracies on our show page 536 00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:00,440 Speaker 1: at newtworld dot com. Newtworld is produced by English three 537 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:05,120 Speaker 1: sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guernsey Sloan. Our 538 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:09,200 Speaker 1: researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was 539 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,560 Speaker 1: created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team at 540 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 1: Ginglishtree sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll 541 00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,840 Speaker 1: go to Apple Podcasts and both rate us with five 542 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 1: stars and give us a review so others can learn 543 00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:25,560 Speaker 1: what it's all about. Right now, listeners of Newtsworld can 544 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,920 Speaker 1: sign up for my three free weekly columns at gingishtree 545 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 1: sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. This is 546 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:33,480 Speaker 1: Newsworld