WEBVTT - David Malpass Talks Trump Policies

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news joining.

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<v Speaker 2>Us around the table potential candidate, they form a wealth

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<v Speaker 2>Bank President David Mountcas David and Morning, Good Mornington, would

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<v Speaker 2>you like to be considered?

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<v Speaker 3>Of course. So it's a huge job and really important,

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<v Speaker 3>really important to the Trump changeover that's going on in

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<v Speaker 3>the world, saving the country. Uh so, But it means

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of change at the FED. I think they've

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<v Speaker 3>been making many mistakes and we can enumerate them and

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<v Speaker 3>correct them, and that will mean more growth and especially

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<v Speaker 3>more growth and median income. If the FED were allowing

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<v Speaker 3>more small business growth, there'd be more jobs. That are

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<v Speaker 3>that are new jobs for people across the across the country,

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<v Speaker 3>not just in urban areas.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's get into some of the details. Walk us through

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<v Speaker 2>a couple of the examples. Why you think they've made

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<v Speaker 2>mistakes and the remedies for them, how it correct course.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I didn't like que think about that. The FED,

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<v Speaker 3>in its wisdom, is going to go buy bonds. So

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<v Speaker 3>how did that work out? They've lost a trillion dollars,

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<v Speaker 3>they'll lose much more than that before they're done with

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<v Speaker 3>the losses on the bonds. In addition to that, remember

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<v Speaker 3>they've paid out in interest constantly since two thousand and nine.

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<v Speaker 3>They've paid one point three trillion dollars of tax payer

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<v Speaker 3>money to banks and to money market funds. That's the

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<v Speaker 3>source of funding that they have to buy the bonds.

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<v Speaker 3>So this has been the worst hedge trade in history.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's a big mistake. It's also led to inflation

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<v Speaker 3>because the FED really allowed a merger of fiscal policy

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<v Speaker 3>and central banking or monetary policy by buying bonds as

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<v Speaker 3>the government was really jacking up the deficit.

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<v Speaker 2>So you're rather running go ready because I have to say,

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<v Speaker 2>isn't that exactly what the president would like to say?

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<v Speaker 3>What would he like?

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<v Speaker 2>President Donal Trump would very much like to see monty

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<v Speaker 2>policy and fiscal policy very well alowed.

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<v Speaker 3>No, I think he wants to see them both improved,

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<v Speaker 3>and is already doing that. The Reconciliation Bill improves fiscal

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<v Speaker 3>policy and the separation. What we need is lower interest rates,

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<v Speaker 3>and you can't do that if you've got the FED

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<v Speaker 3>carrying the load of all this fiscal deficit that Congress

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<v Speaker 3>is generated.

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<v Speaker 1>So in the near term, as a candidate yourself, what

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<v Speaker 1>do you do as a potential new fedhair to the

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<v Speaker 1>composition of the FED and the approach that you think

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<v Speaker 1>right size is.

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<v Speaker 3>I think really important is people to see the flaws

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<v Speaker 3>of the inflation targeting model. I've been writing about this

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<v Speaker 3>since the literally since the eighties, that if you target

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<v Speaker 3>inflation as your goal, it's backward looking and it doesn't

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<v Speaker 3>comprehend all of the prices within the economy. It's just

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<v Speaker 3>a flawed indicator. But that is the basis of how

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<v Speaker 3>the FED sets interest rates. So one of the things

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<v Speaker 3>is you switch and you say the dual mandate is

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<v Speaker 3>to have price stability. That's very different from CPI inflation,

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<v Speaker 3>which waivers around and gives you false signals. That's what's

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<v Speaker 3>happening right now. So you need lower interest rates because

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<v Speaker 3>of the strength of the US economy. I think that's

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<v Speaker 3>something that I understand a lot from working all over

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<v Speaker 3>the world and in Wall Street in financial markets, that

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<v Speaker 3>the US is the giant power and people want to

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<v Speaker 3>invest in the US even at lower interest rate.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, this is a fascinating argument. It's one that President

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has talked about. The idea that it should be

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<v Speaker 1>almost a credit rating of the United States that backs

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<v Speaker 1>what our interest rates should be. So like Microsoft or

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<v Speaker 1>an apple. The borrowing costs should.

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<v Speaker 2>Be very low.

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<v Speaker 1>People are pegging it to inflation, and they're pegging it

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<v Speaker 1>to growth. I'm just wondering the market doesn't see it

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<v Speaker 1>that way.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>We're not there yet, So at this point, how potentially

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<v Speaker 1>perilous is this discussion at a time with the market

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<v Speaker 1>associates lower interustrates with faster inflation and frankly higher borrowing costs.

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<v Speaker 3>For the United States, the market's inbred with the FED,

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<v Speaker 3>and so as long as the FED is the sheriff

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<v Speaker 3>of the land, the market is going to say, oh,

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<v Speaker 3>we operate on that model. But as you change to

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<v Speaker 3>a model that makes more sense, one that's based on

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<v Speaker 3>the growth and credit of the US has something to

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<v Speaker 3>say about what the interest rates are that we should pay.

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<v Speaker 3>That can be a smooth, safe transition, but it has

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<v Speaker 3>to be explained markets as think of what's going on

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<v Speaker 3>on tariffs now, there was a giant panic that didn't materialize.

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<v Speaker 3>The change in the FED system is as big as

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<v Speaker 3>the change that we need in the trading system, and

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<v Speaker 3>it will work better for growth and especially better for

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<v Speaker 3>the forgotten man. The median income has been doing very

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<v Speaker 3>poorly over these maybe twenty years and so if you

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<v Speaker 3>have a new system that's very focused on defending the dollar,

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<v Speaker 3>the dollar is the global reserve currency, and then people

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<v Speaker 3>flooding into dollars, that's actually supportive of markets.

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<v Speaker 2>Seconds left? Have you spoken to the president about the role?

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<v Speaker 3>I don't want to talk about the process. What I

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<v Speaker 3>really want people to focus on is the models that

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<v Speaker 3>need to be changed. We can have a much faster

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<v Speaker 3>growth economy with different FED models, and it can be

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<v Speaker 3>done with the confidence that is absolutely necessary.

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<v Speaker 2>We can have a longer conversation about that next time,

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<v Speaker 2>So appreciate your time. Thanks invest the luck. The former

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<v Speaker 2>World Bank President David Malpass