1 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:08,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news joining. 2 00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:10,640 Speaker 2: Us around the table potential candidate, they form a wealth 3 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 2: Bank President David Mountcas David and Morning, Good Mornington, would 4 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 2: you like to be considered? 5 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 3: Of course. So it's a huge job and really important, 6 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 3: really important to the Trump changeover that's going on in 7 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 3: the world, saving the country. Uh so, But it means 8 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 3: a lot of change at the FED. I think they've 9 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 3: been making many mistakes and we can enumerate them and 10 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 3: correct them, and that will mean more growth and especially 11 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:40,480 Speaker 3: more growth and median income. If the FED were allowing 12 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 3: more small business growth, there'd be more jobs. That are 13 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 3: that are new jobs for people across the across the country, 14 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 3: not just in urban areas. 15 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 2: Let's get into some of the details. Walk us through 16 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 2: a couple of the examples. Why you think they've made 17 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 2: mistakes and the remedies for them, how it correct course. 18 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 3: You know, I didn't like que think about that. The FED, 19 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 3: in its wisdom, is going to go buy bonds. So 20 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 3: how did that work out? They've lost a trillion dollars, 21 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 3: they'll lose much more than that before they're done with 22 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 3: the losses on the bonds. In addition to that, remember 23 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 3: they've paid out in interest constantly since two thousand and nine. 24 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 3: They've paid one point three trillion dollars of tax payer 25 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 3: money to banks and to money market funds. That's the 26 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 3: source of funding that they have to buy the bonds. 27 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 3: So this has been the worst hedge trade in history. 28 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 3: So that's a big mistake. It's also led to inflation 29 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 3: because the FED really allowed a merger of fiscal policy 30 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 3: and central banking or monetary policy by buying bonds as 31 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,840 Speaker 3: the government was really jacking up the deficit. 32 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 2: So you're rather running go ready because I have to say, 33 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 2: isn't that exactly what the president would like to say? 34 00:01:58,560 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 3: What would he like? 35 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 2: President Donal Trump would very much like to see monty 36 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 2: policy and fiscal policy very well alowed. 37 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 3: No, I think he wants to see them both improved, 38 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 3: and is already doing that. The Reconciliation Bill improves fiscal 39 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 3: policy and the separation. What we need is lower interest rates, 40 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 3: and you can't do that if you've got the FED 41 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 3: carrying the load of all this fiscal deficit that Congress 42 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 3: is generated. 43 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 1: So in the near term, as a candidate yourself, what 44 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 1: do you do as a potential new fedhair to the 45 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 1: composition of the FED and the approach that you think 46 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: right size is. 47 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 3: I think really important is people to see the flaws 48 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 3: of the inflation targeting model. I've been writing about this 49 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 3: since the literally since the eighties, that if you target 50 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 3: inflation as your goal, it's backward looking and it doesn't 51 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 3: comprehend all of the prices within the economy. It's just 52 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 3: a flawed indicator. But that is the basis of how 53 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 3: the FED sets interest rates. So one of the things 54 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 3: is you switch and you say the dual mandate is 55 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:05,399 Speaker 3: to have price stability. That's very different from CPI inflation, 56 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 3: which waivers around and gives you false signals. That's what's 57 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 3: happening right now. So you need lower interest rates because 58 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:17,800 Speaker 3: of the strength of the US economy. I think that's 59 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 3: something that I understand a lot from working all over 60 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 3: the world and in Wall Street in financial markets, that 61 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 3: the US is the giant power and people want to 62 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 3: invest in the US even at lower interest rate. 63 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 1: Okay, this is a fascinating argument. It's one that President 64 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: Trump has talked about. The idea that it should be 65 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: almost a credit rating of the United States that backs 66 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: what our interest rates should be. So like Microsoft or 67 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: an apple. The borrowing costs should. 68 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 2: Be very low. 69 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: People are pegging it to inflation, and they're pegging it 70 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 1: to growth. I'm just wondering the market doesn't see it 71 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: that way. 72 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 3: Right. 73 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 1: We're not there yet, So at this point, how potentially 74 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 1: perilous is this discussion at a time with the market 75 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: associates lower interustrates with faster inflation and frankly higher borrowing costs. 76 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 3: For the United States, the market's inbred with the FED, 77 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 3: and so as long as the FED is the sheriff 78 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 3: of the land, the market is going to say, oh, 79 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 3: we operate on that model. But as you change to 80 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 3: a model that makes more sense, one that's based on 81 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 3: the growth and credit of the US has something to 82 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 3: say about what the interest rates are that we should pay. 83 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 3: That can be a smooth, safe transition, but it has 84 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 3: to be explained markets as think of what's going on 85 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 3: on tariffs now, there was a giant panic that didn't materialize. 86 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 3: The change in the FED system is as big as 87 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 3: the change that we need in the trading system, and 88 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:42,599 Speaker 3: it will work better for growth and especially better for 89 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 3: the forgotten man. The median income has been doing very 90 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 3: poorly over these maybe twenty years and so if you 91 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 3: have a new system that's very focused on defending the dollar, 92 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 3: the dollar is the global reserve currency, and then people 93 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 3: flooding into dollars, that's actually supportive of markets. 94 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 2: Seconds left? Have you spoken to the president about the role? 95 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:13,040 Speaker 3: I don't want to talk about the process. What I 96 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 3: really want people to focus on is the models that 97 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 3: need to be changed. We can have a much faster 98 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 3: growth economy with different FED models, and it can be 99 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 3: done with the confidence that is absolutely necessary. 100 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 2: We can have a longer conversation about that next time, 101 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 2: So appreciate your time. Thanks invest the luck. The former 102 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 2: World Bank President David Malpass