1 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:10,640 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day forty nine 2 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story, 3 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 1: immunity has come up a lot recently as governments consider 4 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: whether and how to reopen. Some have floated immunity passports 5 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 1: that would allow people who have successfully thought off the 6 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: virus to go back into society. Trouble is that assumes 7 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: an understanding of coronavirus. We still don't have. Whether having 8 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: the virus makes you immune to future infections, and if so, 9 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: for how long is still unclear. So who's really immune? 10 00:00:47,960 --> 00:01:01,639 Speaker 1: But first, here's what happened today. The US recession has 11 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 1: officially begun. After eleven years of record growth. The economy 12 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 1: shrank at a four point eight percent annualized rate in 13 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 1: the first quarter, with a coronavirus forcing businesses to close 14 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:18,039 Speaker 1: and consumers to stay home around the country. It's likely 15 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: to be the deepest recession in at least eighty years. 16 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 1: That's right, eighty years. The current quarter is expected to 17 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: be far worse. Bloomberg Economics projects an annualized contraction of 18 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: a staggering thirty seven percent. The Trump administration has launched 19 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:45,960 Speaker 1: a project to fast track a coronavirus vaccine. The goal 20 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 1: is to make enough doses for most Americans by the 21 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: end of the year. The program, called Operation Warp Speed, 22 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: will pull together private pharmaceutical companies, government agencies, and the military. 23 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: As part of the arrangement, taxpayers will shoulder much of 24 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 1: the financial risk that vaccine candidates may fail instead of 25 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: drug companies. There was good news from the pharmaceutical industry 26 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 1: today which brought hope that the first effective treatment for 27 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 1: coronavirus could be around the corner. Gilead Sciences said that remdesvie, 28 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 1: their experimental drug to treat the virus, worked better than 29 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 1: standard care in a clinical trial. The coronavirus outbreak is 30 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:36,519 Speaker 1: at different stages around the world. In Europe, some countries 31 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 1: are seeing fit to loosen restrictions on movement, others fear 32 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 1: a second wave. France and Spain took cautious steps towards reopening, 33 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 1: but in Germany new cases rose for the first time 34 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: in three days as the government weighed removing more curbs. 35 00:02:56,639 --> 00:03:00,639 Speaker 1: New York reported a fourth day of declining deaths, though 36 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: new hospitalizations rose slightly. In other regions, the virus is 37 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:11,080 Speaker 1: taking an even more serious toll. Brazil is rising in 38 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: the ranking of most hit places by the coronavirus. It 39 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 1: is now the country with the third largest number of 40 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 1: deaths reported over the past twenty four hours, after the 41 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 1: US and the UK, and now our main story. As 42 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: states grapple with the question of when it will be 43 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: safe to reopen businesses and relax social distancing, there's increasing 44 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: urgency to better understand who's immune to COVID nineteen. Does 45 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 1: having the virus and recovering from it mean you can't 46 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: get it again, or at least that you can't be 47 00:03:56,200 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: reinfected for some time. The problem is no one yet 48 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: has good answers to these questions. Here's Bloomberg reporter Kristin V. 49 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: Brown with more on the science of coronavirus immunity. When 50 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 1: I was a kid and I got the chicken pox, 51 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: one of the things I remember my mom telling me 52 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 1: is that I couldn't get the virus that caused the 53 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:27,039 Speaker 1: chicken pox again. She told me that I was immune. This, 54 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: I think is common wisdom when it comes to viruses. 55 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 1: That is, after all, how vaccines work. You're exposed to 56 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:39,480 Speaker 1: a virus like polio or the measles, your immune system 57 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 1: identifies that virus and figures out how to produce antibodies 58 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 1: that fight it off. Next time you run into that 59 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: same virus, your immune system is ready for battle. The 60 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 1: thing is, that's not always how it works. Immunity is 61 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 1: actually a spectrum. There are viruses like the measles that 62 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 1: you can for never worry about again. On the other 63 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 1: end of that spectrum, there's HIV, in which the antibodies 64 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: you developed just act as a sort of marker rather 65 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 1: than actually protecting you from anything. Stars cove to. The 66 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 1: virus that causes COVID nineteen is still pretty much a mystery. 67 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:22,599 Speaker 1: We just don't know that much about how the body's 68 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:27,559 Speaker 1: immune system responds to it. Recently, Anthony Fauci, the leading 69 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,559 Speaker 1: infectious disease expert in the country, was on Good Morning 70 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 1: America talking about exactly this. We do not know exactly 71 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 1: what an anybody tie to means. I mean, there's an assumption, 72 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: a reasonable assumption, that when you have an anybody that 73 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: you will protect it against reinfection. But that has not 74 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:49,799 Speaker 1: been proven for this particular virus. It's true for other viruses. 75 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: I think it's a reasonable assumption. So you wouldn't say 76 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:55,720 Speaker 1: you know that's an absurd idea. It isn't. I mean, 77 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 1: it happens with other viruses, But we don't know how 78 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 1: long that pt action, if it exists last is it 79 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: one month, three months, six months, a year? So that's 80 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 1: a lot to unpack Foult. She was talking about a 81 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: few different things. There are two key questions that scientists 82 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 1: are trying to answer when it comes to antibodies and 83 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: the new coronavirus. How long did antibodies two stars covie 84 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: to remain in the body and for how long do 85 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 1: they actually prevent you from catching it again if at all. Ideally, 86 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 1: what you want is lifelong immunity, something you can give 87 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 1: people a vaccine for that lasts forever. But early evidence 88 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 1: suggests that stars CoV two is going to be a 89 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: bit more complicated than that. The new coronavirus is a 90 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: member of the same group of viruses as Stars and merrs, 91 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: as well as the seasonal coronaviruses that cause the common cold. 92 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 1: They're named coronavirus is has The proteins that the virus 93 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: has used to attach to cells in a host body 94 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: are kind of spiky, like a crown. Here's Harvard scientist 95 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: David wall. To explain this a little bit, coronavirus is 96 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: similar to the one that we're dealing with now COVID nineteen, 97 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: such as the first Stars epidemic and the Mirrors infections 98 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: that occurred primarily in the Middle East a few years ago. 99 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: Those antibody responses were transient. That is, individuals who were 100 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: infected lost their immunity after somewhere between two months and 101 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 1: eighteen months, so that most individuals who were affected are 102 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 1: no longer protected against those viruses. Stars and MERS are. 103 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 1: The virus is most closely related to STARS Kobe two, 104 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 1: and a few studies have shown that after a few years, 105 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 1: antibodies to the virus disappear, meaning there's potential to get reinfected. 106 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 1: Studies of both of those viruses also haven't actually shown 107 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: the antibodies prevent reinfection. To further complicate things, not only 108 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 1: are antibodies potentially time limited, but not all antibodies are 109 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 1: actually capable of preventing infection in the first place. Some 110 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 1: can recognize the virus but not actually latch onto it 111 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: in order to fight it off. The antibodies you want 112 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 1: are called neutralizing antibodies. Antibodies that cannot just recognize the 113 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: virus but kill it. There's also the chance that the 114 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: virus could mutate enough the antibodies you have no longer 115 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: protect against it. One study from the nineties showed that 116 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 1: was possible with a seasonal coronavirus. The present thinking is 117 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: that people who have been exposed develop some immunity to 118 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 1: the virus, but we do not know how long that 119 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 1: persists and whether that is even going to be protective 120 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 1: over a long period of time. The reason all of 121 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: this matters is that understanding whether people are immune to 122 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: the virus will help make decisions about how and when 123 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:08,839 Speaker 1: to lift restrictions like shelter and place. Test that measure 124 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: antibodies to the virus have been sold as a major 125 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: part of efforts to restart the economy and get people 126 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 1: back to work. New York State has approved an antibody test. 127 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 1: Fauci himself at one point even suggested that certificates of 128 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 1: immunity might be required for returning workers. But that only 129 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:29,560 Speaker 1: works if we know the antibodies actually fend off the virus. 130 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 1: Here's Fauci again. So the assumption that with the tests 131 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:40,080 Speaker 1: that are out there, if you haven't anybody positivity, you're 132 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: good to go. Unless that test has been validated and 133 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: you can show there's a correlation between anybody and protection, 134 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: it is an assumption to say that this is something 135 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 1: that we can work with. We still have a way 136 00:09:53,640 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 1: to go with them. The good news there is some 137 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 1: early evidence that antibodies means some sort of protection against 138 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. For example, inexperimental treatments where critical patients are 139 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 1: given blood plasma transfusions from people who have recovered from 140 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: the illness. It seems to make a difference. But there's 141 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:22,199 Speaker 1: still a lot of work that needs to be done 142 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 1: before we can answer these questions and develop vaccines and 143 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: reopen the economy. That was Kristin V. Brown and that's 144 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 1: our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one 145 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com 146 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 1: slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave 147 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 148 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 1: It's the best way to help more listen nurds find 149 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is hosted by 150 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 1: me Laura Carlson. The show is produced by me Tophor Foreheads, 151 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:15,679 Speaker 1: Jordan Gaspoure and Magnus Henriksen. Today's main story was reported 152 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:21,079 Speaker 1: by Kristin V. Brown. Original music by Leo sidron Our. 153 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: Editors are Francesco Levi and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is 154 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.