1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 2: Brian Weezer joins us, Madison and Wall And what's great 7 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:34,160 Speaker 2: about Brian Weezer It's it's less by hold. 8 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 3: Cell and much more. What in God's name are they doing? 9 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: What's the single myth of Facebook Meta that our listeners 10 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:43,919 Speaker 2: and viewers have. 11 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 3: What's the thing that drives you nuts? 12 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 4: That the myth that advertisers care about all the problems 13 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:53,319 Speaker 4: on the platform, and that they will care, they care 14 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 4: about performance for better and worse, and they care about 15 00:00:57,400 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 4: whether or not they get what they think are results, 16 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 4: and that they think results come from meta. Because Metta's 17 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 4: got great attribution tools, right, even if a lot of 18 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 4: its false attribution. 19 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 3: Will dan Off, Good Morning ninety to nine. 20 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 2: If I'm up in Boston, Will dan Off, I believe 21 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 2: it's his number one holding, a contrafund, And I think 22 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 2: he would suggest the reason it's his number one holding 23 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 2: is he bought it and he never sold it and 24 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 2: just kept adding to it as well. 25 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 3: Is that the emotion you feel about Meta even with 26 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 3: these valuations. 27 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:28,320 Speaker 4: That's a really good way to put it. I mean, 28 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 4: if someone just held on, obviously they did incredibly well. 29 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 4: There are lots of reasons why you should have expected 30 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 4: that markers might have abandoned the platform, let alone consumers. 31 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 3: Nobody screwing it. 32 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:42,839 Speaker 5: So the I mean, you got a two hundred billion 33 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 5: dollar revenue company with Meta here streets forecasting twenty percent 34 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 5: top line revenue growth. This is advertising. 35 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's what's going on here the advertise. Well, to 36 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 4: be clear, they undoubtedly have a more optimistic go look 37 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 4: on the ad market, let alone the economy than we do. 38 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 4: But nonetheless they're sure certainly taking share no matter what's 39 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 4: happening here. And that's the main thing. They're building these 40 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:08,639 Speaker 4: performance based tools. They're segmenting the market really well. When 41 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 4: I say segmenting, I mean Fudy, the markers who are 42 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 4: willing to pay the most fun fact just came out 43 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 4: the ten k an hour ago. Their third biggest market, Singapore. 44 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 4: Really that's new. Why Singapore it's a tiny ad market 45 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 4: because that's where all the Chinese transhipers are sending all 46 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 4: their budgets. 47 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,119 Speaker 2: This is like when I talked to YouTube here at Bloomberg, 48 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 2: whos spearheaded ore YouTube Bedford? 49 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 3: Paul's same thing for YouTube. 50 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:35,080 Speaker 5: How was AI impacting? Is it making their ad tools 51 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 5: even better? 52 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:36,959 Speaker 3: Yeah? 53 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,119 Speaker 4: I mean the attributed performance. 54 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 3: That's the key thing. 55 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 4: We don't know that actually drive performance, right, but they 56 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 4: can claim performance because of the modeling tools that they offer, 57 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 4: because they may just be targeting the customer that was 58 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 4: already going to buy a product better than someone else does. 59 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining this morning, Brian Weezer. Where a Seamashawn 60 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 2: Deck and London. We'll get to her in a moment, 61 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 2: Brian Weezer, is it Madison? And Okay, so you were 62 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 2: an intern at Stirling and Cooper way way long time ago. 63 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:05,359 Speaker 3: You nailed this. 64 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 2: I remember the IPO day, Paul Kodrowski, David Kirkpatrick. What 65 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 2: a magical IPO release we did. Did you see this coming? 66 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 2: Did you know in the first year of their public 67 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 2: trading that they'd be twenty three percent per year? 68 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 4: Well, we definitely had an optimistic view in the business. 69 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:23,360 Speaker 4: Not the stock That's why I had a celebrating at 70 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 4: the IPO, but the business itself was incredibly durable. That's 71 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 4: why at the trough, if you remember the summer after 72 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 4: the IPO, we're like, why is everyone selling this thing? 73 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 4: This is a great business. It was always going to 74 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 4: be a really good business, and they've got amazing business professionals. 75 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 3: That's the core thing. 76 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 5: When you look at the great results of Facebook here, 77 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 5: how do we extrapolate it or can we extrapolate it 78 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 5: to Google in the search business? 79 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, at least you can say that there are 80 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 4: good tailwinds for growth for advertising. Overall, Google's not going 81 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 4: to grow this fast. But the reality is that if 82 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 4: medic can grow at twenty percent, you should expect that 83 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 4: Google can grow like called ten or something. 84 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 5: What is the it's much big? Yeah, I know, And 85 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 5: but my use of Google right now Gemini gives me 86 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 5: what I want right on tom means I'm not clicking 87 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 5: as much, Isn't that doesn't that impact Google's revenue if 88 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 5: I'm not clicking as much? 89 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 4: There's a lot of threats around that, but we argue 90 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:16,480 Speaker 4: that the budgets and marketers have are independent of what 91 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:18,039 Speaker 4: consumers do on that level. 92 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 2: Just because it's the time of the blue lights, did 93 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 2: Detroit Lyons, Blue Light, Brian Weezer, just because we're here 94 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 2: the super Bowl does it? You know you you nailed. 95 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:31,599 Speaker 2: People will still watch sports like you more than anyone. 96 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 2: I know you, Nathan so Moffatt nailed in Greenfield. 97 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 3: You nailed. It's not going to end. Yeah. Super Bowl 98 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 3: still a big deal. 99 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 4: Still the single most important event. It is the center 100 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 4: of the universe for a lot of the advertising industry. 101 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:45,279 Speaker 5: It's not going way anytime. 102 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 3: It's the industry like when you were at Sterling Cooper. 103 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 3: I mean, is he is he? 104 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 2: You know, Martin Soro and all that and Rob Schwartz 105 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 2: and you know, is it gone. 106 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 3: No, it's involving. 107 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 4: Here's the thing, I argue, this is a contrary view 108 00:04:57,839 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 4: for all of AI, and there's a lot of fears 109 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 4: that A is going to places a lot of people. 110 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 4: I argue it's going to cause the need for more 111 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 4: people because that's more complexity, and the complexity is what 112 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 4: requires people to manage the processes. We already saw this 113 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,720 Speaker 4: in ad tech at Technique, the automation of most core 114 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 4: media buying. It was meant to automate the whole industry. No, 115 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 4: it caused the need for more people and you're going 116 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 4: to see that in the creative size the agency as. 117 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 5: Well Warner Brothers Discovery. When you talk to big, big 118 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 5: advertisers out there, did they care who owns Warner Brothers Discovery, 119 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 5: whether it's Netflix or Paramount. 120 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 4: So, to be clear, while they care about many things 121 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 4: about television, like sports in particular, they don't care about 122 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 4: television broadly. So when you think about like the Warner 123 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 4: Cable networks and now Netflix is still interesting too many 124 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,599 Speaker 4: because it's an incremental reach thing and it seems to 125 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:43,359 Speaker 4: be sexy, but at the end of the day to 126 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 4: is diminishing. That's a good way to think about it 127 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 4: in the minds of marketers. 128 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 2: Sparta emails it's Sparta, thanks for getting out of bed 129 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 2: so early, seven h nine am. To have Sparta email 130 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,599 Speaker 2: in this early is a real shock here. We're like 131 00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:01,239 Speaker 2: devoted to YouTube. Where is you too? In five years? 132 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 2: Sparda wants to know. 133 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 4: So they continue to invest in content. They continue to 134 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 4: look at this, having the oscars in twenty twenty nine, right, 135 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,919 Speaker 4: they're not letting up on investment contents speak of sports, right, 136 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 4: NFL Sunday Ticket, that's the YouTube property. They will continue 137 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 4: to invest They continue to share revenue with creators. They're 138 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 4: spending more than anyone else on earth on content. I 139 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 4: think they'll be fine. 140 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 2: Okay, see Michelle wants to know. Is met a single 141 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 2: best buy? Is it like a bye? 142 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 3: Is it a hold where I don't have a bicell 143 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 3: hold record? There we go. I need to hear that. 144 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 2: Brian Weezer, thank you, thank you so much for getting 145 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 2: and started Madison room. 146 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 3: Well this morning, there, stay with us. 147 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 148 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:49,559 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 149 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 150 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,279 Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 151 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 1: or watch us Live on YouTube. 152 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 2: This is a really important conversation thermodynamics this morning. 153 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, physics is great. 154 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 2: That hurts. This is way more importantly one of the 155 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 2: great words tossed around like a mint, like one of 156 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 2: the York peppermint patties. You want you're to bar, you 157 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 2: want to impress somebody. Well, I'm looking at the liquidity. 158 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 2: Jerom Schneider is expert on liquidity. He's a pimpco legendary 159 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 2: in the short term paper space and we're Theriolldy could 160 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 2: be in studio with us today. 161 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 3: When an idiot like me says liquidity, what do we 162 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 3: get wrong? 163 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 6: Well, there's two different aspects of liquid It's the one 164 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 6: that the person thinks about how much liquid liquidity liquid 165 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 6: assets they need to survive in day to day life. 166 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 6: And then there's what the macroeconomist thinks about liquidy is 167 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 6: what is the arrogate amount of demand for cash and 168 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 6: liquid type products that saints yates or sustains business activity. 169 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 6: And that's where the intersection comes within the economic cycles. 170 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 6: And really, as a functionary you don't really want to 171 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 6: make it too complex. You want to understand that there's 172 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 6: risk to both sides. People can over cherish liquidity and 173 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 6: markets can over cherish liquidity or assume liquidity is there. 174 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 6: But at the same time you want to keep your 175 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 6: eyes open that liquity may not be there at all 176 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 6: times at the same cost. And that's really what the 177 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 6: lessons of the past twenty five years have been for 178 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 6: the financial market. 179 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 3: Can I do an audible quickly? 180 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 7: Paul? 181 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 2: That right? Okay? 182 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 3: Okay, thank you? 183 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 2: I mean Jerome, your idea of long term is two 184 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 2: year paper. Jerome Schneider on the liquidity of private equity 185 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 2: and private credit. 186 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 3: I don't want to get you in trouble with Dan, 187 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:34,439 Speaker 3: but tell me about the liquidity of these new alternative investments. 188 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 6: Well, I think it's you know, one of the things 189 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 6: to keep in mind as an investor is you're not 190 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 6: only making an investment in an asset, meaning you want 191 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,839 Speaker 6: the asset to perform some ready to return and horizon 192 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 6: for that asset's return of principle or capital. That's the 193 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 6: key metric that many investors overlook. There's some variability in 194 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 6: that metric. Many investors make that predisposition because they're assuming 195 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 6: economic returns are going to be x percent over a 196 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 6: period of time. That period of time is going to 197 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 6: grow in flocks. And I think we're finding in private 198 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 6: credit markets is assumptions that were made several years ago 199 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 6: may not necessarily be as concrete as what people had 200 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 6: expected to have a infruition. At the same time, what 201 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,960 Speaker 6: we are also finding is that there's differentiation in those 202 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,080 Speaker 6: private markets, in those private credit markets, and really what 203 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:23,079 Speaker 6: we're finding is that those assets that might have more 204 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 6: resiliency because they're asset backed in those private credit markets 205 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 6: or potentially of the transability to transcend. Both public and 206 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 6: private credit markets have a different, perhaps a more improved 207 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:36,839 Speaker 6: liquidity profile than the predecessors. And that's really what we're 208 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 6: focused on is in the broader market, make sure, as 209 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 6: an investor you understand what that liquidity horizon looks like 210 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 6: and what you expect likelihood to get that maturity payment 211 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 6: back or that capital repayment back over that horizon is 212 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 6: incredibly important obviously to returns. 213 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 5: What do you say to the people that have got 214 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 5: that I don't know, seven billion dollars in money markets? 215 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 5: You go see them at a PIMPO dinner somewhere. You say, hey, 216 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 5: come on and buy some two year paper. Here, let's 217 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 5: get into the market here. What do you say there? 218 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 6: So we've been having that conversation a lot over the 219 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:08,199 Speaker 6: past few years, obviously since we got off the zero bound, 220 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 6: and we recognize the fact that it has worked. We 221 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:13,839 Speaker 6: have seen people come off the sidelines where seeing people 222 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 6: move to those ultra shortened loderation strategies. You know, about 223 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 6: fifteen percent growth year of year. Oddly though, money market 224 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 6: funds are still growing at twelve to thirteen percent, above 225 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 6: the organic growth rate of you know, three to four 226 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 6: percent interest. So what I would say is is that 227 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 6: that message is making and is resonating, but there's still 228 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:33,440 Speaker 6: a lot of cash sitting on the side, and so 229 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 6: that doesn't mean it's all risk seeking. There's a lot 230 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 6: of equidy from central banks, from corporations, that's operational cash, 231 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 6: but it is sitting on the sidelines. But people are 232 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 6: recognizing that with the FED coming to the end of 233 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 6: their rate cutting cycle over the next year, let's call it. 234 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 6: You find yourself in a situation where rates are fairly balanced, 235 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:53,199 Speaker 6: there's real rates that are attractive and maybe adding a 236 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 6: little duration to the portfolio outside my long bond. That, 237 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,959 Speaker 6: to your point, is perhaps perhaps a perhaps an attractive point. 238 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 2: Jerrem senaider or PIMCO with US. I need to do 239 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:05,319 Speaker 2: some economics here. As mister Holman was speaking in Minneapolis, 240 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,560 Speaker 2: claims came in. It is stunning, two hundred and nine thousand, 241 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 2: just above survey the four week moving average of claims. 242 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 2: Paul is worth noting two hundred and six thousand. That 243 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 2: is just absolutely was really addressed by the chairman yesterday. 244 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:24,679 Speaker 2: Some other nother non farm productivity came in on survey 245 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 2: at a buoyant four point nine percent, and Paul, you 246 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:31,960 Speaker 2: and I mentioned this yesterday the thirty year bond. Jerome 247 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 2: doesn't even know the function on the Bloomberg the thirty 248 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 2: year bond four point eighty eight percent creeping grinding, I say, 249 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 2: up to five percent. 250 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 3: Paul Sweeney, what did you. 251 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 5: Take away from our fit chairman yesterday in his comment? 252 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 6: Yeah, First of all, GT thirty is the function, so 253 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 6: I know. There you go there, Bill Groves Cone. So, 254 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:54,679 Speaker 6: but I would say that a few things. One, we're 255 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 6: obviously data dependent for some period of time here, and 256 00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 6: I think one of the Fikey facets here is that 257 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 6: the tension between jobs and inflation is probably going to 258 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 6: be a key theme that we have to see evolving 259 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 6: as we sort of dissect inflation or economic data over 260 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 6: the next few few months. At PIMCO. We believe that, 261 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 6: you know, we obviously have one to two rate cuts 262 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 6: later on this year, obviously influenced by the incoming FED 263 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 6: share But the committee based approach really maintains the fact 264 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 6: that we're going to have to look at it from 265 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 6: an economic point of view, recognizing the fact that yes, 266 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 6: there's growth that's pretty pretty outstanding compared to where we 267 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 6: thought it'd be. A year ago being resilient, and the 268 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 6: and the FED is going to have to sort of 269 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:34,680 Speaker 6: take that into account as we get into the later 270 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 6: months of this year. So from that perspective, we might 271 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 6: actually find ourselves in attention that has high growth inflation 272 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 6: that obviously is moving higher over the coming months, but 273 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 6: then coming back down to two and a half percent. 274 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 6: But the need for significant rate cuts beyond the one 275 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 6: maybe two cuts later on this year is not really noteworthy. 276 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 6: And I think you know, we are, you know, at 277 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 6: the usual rate probably right now. The market's probably going 278 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 6: to bifurcate that and cut another expect another cut or so, 279 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 6: but is it meaningful to the broader market? Probably not. 280 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 6: And I think a stronger economy and productivity combined with 281 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 6: profitability of many corporations is going to be a dominating 282 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 6: theme for later on this year. 283 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 5: Do you is that kind of your call there that 284 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 5: you think this economy a is strong and perhaps can 285 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 5: even get stronger throughout the year. 286 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 6: There's inclinations. One of the key facets to obviously keep 287 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 6: in mind is the fiscal element, the stimulus coming from 288 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 6: the fiscal side, the consumerism. Yes, we call it the 289 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,959 Speaker 6: K shaped economy at PIMCO, and that lower end of 290 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 6: the economy is under some stress and to rest, but 291 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 6: the average remains really really impressive right now. So you 292 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 6: could easily have a growth rate that's about two and 293 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,959 Speaker 6: a half percent. That sort of creates animal spirits from 294 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 6: the positive side. And yes, you might have that as 295 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 6: a lingering effect that is in the back of the 296 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 6: Fed Committee's mind as we get into the later half 297 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 6: of this year as reasons maybe to maybe hesitate about 298 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 6: that great cut later this year. 299 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 3: Cherald, thank you so much. 300 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 2: She really waited around quite a long time to be 301 00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:58,720 Speaker 2: with us the Home and Press conference on Really Cherim, 302 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,439 Speaker 2: thank you for your commitment to Bloomberg Surveillance. 303 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,320 Speaker 3: Mister Schneider is with Pim Koll. Stay with us. 304 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 305 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 306 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 307 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 308 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 309 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 2: Stephanie Sansheva, Besides the privilege you're working under, Kenneth Rogoff 310 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 2: at Harvard has become a force worldwide and economics, founder 311 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 2: of Social Economics Lab at Harvard in her latest research, 312 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 2: goes to the tension that we heard in the home 313 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 2: and press conference. This is the emotion and the anger 314 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 2: in society in our political discourse. Stephanie, this is going 315 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 2: to be a three hour conversation. I got to squeeze 316 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 2: it in a few minutes. How do you measure the 317 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:03,359 Speaker 2: rage the anger of a modern American political discourse? 318 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 7: Yes, that's a great question, and really happy to be 319 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 7: with you today. We measure it both online and offline. 320 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 7: So we have this amazing data of a lot of 321 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 7: social media posts. You know, since since twenty eleven, we 322 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 7: have campaign speeches, we have congressional speeches. We can compare 323 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 7: the same person tweeting online and talking in congress. So 324 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 7: we have this amazing body of data where we can measure, 325 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 7: thanks to AI, that emotional content of the statements. And 326 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 7: what we can see is that, especially since twenty sixteen, 327 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 7: there has been a really sharp rise in anger. So 328 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 7: the share of statements, the share of tweets that are 329 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 7: angry has really really risen. 330 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 8: And this comes at the expense of. 331 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 7: The factual or like lack mutually emotional tweets. Other emotions 332 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 7: don't show this pattern, so fear, joy, other emotions have 333 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 7: been pretty flat. 334 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 2: Professor Richard Nixon, November third, nineteen sixty nine. Is there 335 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 2: a silent majority out there in twenty twenty five. 336 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 7: Yeah, that's a really great question. But what we see 337 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 7: is that this rise and anger is actually very general. 338 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 8: So you might think it's on one side. 339 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 7: Of the political spectrum or not, But what we see 340 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 7: is that policy makers do follow some cycles. So when 341 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 7: policymakers are in power, they tend to have less angry content, 342 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 7: and then when they're in the opposition they have more 343 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 7: angry content, And it's pretty symmetric on both sides. But 344 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:34,640 Speaker 7: for citizens, it seems like the anger has just risen 345 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 7: and doesn't come down anymore, regardless of your political leaning. 346 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 7: So perhaps this anger has been triggered by policymaker and 347 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 7: now just doesn't come back down. And what we also 348 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 7: see is that it seems like anger is used strategically. 349 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 7: If you tweet something angry, you're much more likely to 350 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 7: be retweeted and to get engagement. If you post something angry, 351 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 7: you know, you get a lot more attention, and so 352 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 7: this actually reinforces this pattern where angry content is going 353 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 7: to spread much more rapidly than neutral content. 354 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,360 Speaker 5: So if in fact there has been a rise in 355 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:11,120 Speaker 5: increase in anger in political discourse, that does that suggest 356 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 5: that centrist type policy making is that becoming more and 357 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 5: more difficult going forward. 358 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 7: So what's interesting is that anger is not a part 359 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 7: is an issue. It is actually very evenly spread on 360 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 7: both sides of the political spectrum, and so it is 361 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 7: not something that will determine, you know, which side you're. 362 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 8: On, if you're on the center. 363 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 7: On the ends, it does correlate with being more extremely partisan, 364 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 7: So it is stronger among people who tend to follow 365 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 7: more partisan accounts, who tend to be you know, more 366 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 7: stronger Republicans or stronger Democrats rather than moderate. But what's 367 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 7: most important to me is that this really matters for 368 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 7: our policies. 369 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 8: It matters for economics. 370 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 7: What we see is that if you make people angrier, 371 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,879 Speaker 7: they become more anti immigration, more anti free trade, they 372 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 7: become more anti democracy as well. So there's this very 373 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,639 Speaker 7: strong effect on the policy views that you express. And 374 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 7: while this might be short lived, you know, in the moment, 375 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:13,119 Speaker 7: if we are constantly being bombarded by angry content, you 376 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:15,239 Speaker 7: can imagine that this is going to persist and have 377 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 7: some real consequences. 378 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,920 Speaker 5: Social media doesn't appear to be going anywhere soon, Professor, 379 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 5: Is there any solution or I don't change in behavior 380 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 5: that may take the rhetoric down and may allow for 381 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 5: some more again, I get bipartisan policy making. 382 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,360 Speaker 7: So I'm glad you're mentioning the role of social media 383 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:37,720 Speaker 7: here because we can compare the same person, the same 384 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 7: Congress person online you know how they tweet, how they 385 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 7: speak online and offline, you know which means on the 386 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 7: Congress floor. And what we see is that for the 387 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 7: same person, content is systematically angrier when it's online. So 388 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 7: it's not that some people just tend to be angrier 389 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 7: than others. It's also that everybody tends to be angrier 390 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 7: when they're posting publicly, when they're posting online. So clearly 391 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 7: social media does have a role to play in amplifying this. 392 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 5: What are next steps here? Do you think? 393 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:06,400 Speaker 7: I mean? 394 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 5: It's this interesting polarization. We all feel it, we all 395 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 5: see it. It seems to be growing. Is there a 396 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:17,920 Speaker 5: sense that at some point people on both sides, if 397 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 5: nothing else, will just grow punch drunk, weary, tired, And 398 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,679 Speaker 5: maybe you just start seeing that in tone down rhetoric 399 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 5: and policymaking. 400 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 7: So what we see is that this is happening in 401 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 7: many countries actually, so it is not just a US phenomenon. 402 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 7: They have data for friends, for other European countries, So 403 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 7: it seems to be something more general. And I'm also 404 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 7: very curious where it will go and to keep studying it. 405 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 3: There's so much to go on here. 406 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 2: My book of the I think the Year of the 407 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 2: Summer a couple of years ago is Paul Pearson, Eric Schickler, 408 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 2: professor out. 409 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 3: At Berkeley, and it's folks, three hundred dense pages. 410 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 2: It's called Partisan Nation, and it basically goes from Madison 411 00:19:57,920 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 2: and then Paul, we pick up at the civil rights 412 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,199 Speaker 2: of nineteen sixty four and then the culture War and 413 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:08,360 Speaker 2: the raging debate that we're in. Professor forgetting about the academics, 414 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 2: what's the path for America to get back to the 415 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 2: middle ground democrat, the middle ground republican, the quiet that 416 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,719 Speaker 2: we used to remember in our parents' political debate. 417 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 7: Now that's a very very important question to which I 418 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,639 Speaker 7: don't have the answer. But you know, what we see 419 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,880 Speaker 7: in general is that the economic environment matters so so much, 420 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 7: and especially younger people today are growing up in times 421 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 7: which have lower growth, lower mobility. 422 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 2: I totally agree this is really important. This goes back 423 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 2: to Benjamin Friedman at ear Harvard. The bottom line on 424 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 2: this is the bargain of economic growth broke a number 425 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 2: of years ago. 426 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 3: That's the first order regressor. 427 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:52,919 Speaker 2: Isn't it. 428 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 8: I think it is. 429 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,960 Speaker 7: And you know, we can talk about changing mindsets, et cetera. 430 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 8: But what I see is that mindset's really. 431 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 7: Follow the reality that people live in and their experiences, 432 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,919 Speaker 7: and especially you know, the younger generation we see is 433 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 7: living in this time of lower growth, living in lower mobility, 434 00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 7: with a lot of competition you know, for housing, for jobs, 435 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:17,199 Speaker 7: and so this is the reality people live in. So 436 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 7: I think before we think about just quote unquote changing mindset, 437 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 7: I think we have to think of policies that actually 438 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 7: you know, grow the pie and also share the gains 439 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 7: that are happening. 440 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 5: So this case shaped economy, it's something we've all I've 441 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 5: probably gotten a better understanding of over the last ten 442 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 5: to twenty years. Should is that how do we think 443 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 5: about that going forward? It doesn't that doesn't seem to 444 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 5: be solving itself as well. 445 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 7: I think, you know, many things are a bit the 446 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:49,200 Speaker 7: role of policies. You know, we think of policies as 447 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,119 Speaker 7: trying to grow the pie or trying to redistribute it 448 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:55,359 Speaker 7: in a more in a more equitable way. And you know, 449 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 7: as much as I love the market as an economist, 450 00:21:58,680 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 7: it cannot do everything. 451 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 8: And so I think there's a lot of role for policies. 452 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 7: You know, we know some policies literally pay for themselves 453 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 7: over the medium or short run, for instance, helping families 454 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 7: with children, whether it's on nutrition, education, health investments, Those 455 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 7: pay for themselves later create opportunities for lots of generations. 456 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 7: Innovation policy, innovation is something that grows the pie. So 457 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 7: I think this is the direction which we need to think. 458 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 2: Because Stephanie, you came from Europe. I got one time 459 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,359 Speaker 2: for one more question. We're going to November. We just 460 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:31,439 Speaker 2: heard all the tension of Minneapolis in that what is 461 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 2: your prescription where people on the edge of the middle 462 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 2: of this nation in a broader sense, where they have 463 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 2: a voice this side? How do they get a voice? 464 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 2: Given the polarity of our media, the polarity of our discourts, 465 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:51,120 Speaker 2: we can't even hold a dinner party anymore between Republicans 466 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 2: and Democrats. 467 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, it's tough, Stephanie. How do we find go 468 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 3: in search of that middle ground? 469 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 7: I think a lot of a lot of things are 470 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 7: stacked against this. You know, we talked about social media 471 00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 7: and even the algorithm is going to tend to amplify, 472 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 7: you know, more extreme voices, and so I think there's 473 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,679 Speaker 7: a real structural issue to actually have that type of 474 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 7: dialogue and that type of that life type of debate. 475 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 7: So I don't have the answer, but really hoping I 476 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:22,439 Speaker 7: keep studying this. 477 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 3: Do you have super Bowl tickets? I mean you're up 478 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:26,400 Speaker 3: at Harvard. I mean, you know. 479 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 2: She's did you get you get Patriots super Bowl ticket? 480 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 8: Stephanie, I don't have super Bowl ticket? 481 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,000 Speaker 3: Talk to Rogueff, We'll get them. 482 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,880 Speaker 2: So Stephanie san Seva is at Harvard with important research 483 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 2: there on the fabric of our culture. 484 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:42,960 Speaker 3: Stay with us. 485 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,400 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 486 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 487 00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 488 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 489 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 490 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:09,400 Speaker 3: Let's get right to it. The newspaper's Alexis Christopherus. 491 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,920 Speaker 9: Thanks Tom Soker. I'm gonna start with a Bloomberg story here. 492 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,400 Speaker 9: Robin Hood now wants a key role in the SPACEXIPO, 493 00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 9: which we know is supposed to be coming in June. 494 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,680 Speaker 9: So Robinhood, playing with the big Wall Street banks here, 495 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,679 Speaker 9: wants to secure a big block of SpaceX stock to 496 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 9: sell directly to retail investors. So it wants to do 497 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 9: this through its own platform called IPO Access Platform, and 498 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 9: Elon Musk himself has said he's considering setting aside a 499 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:38,160 Speaker 9: significant portion of the shares for retail investors. This would 500 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,199 Speaker 9: be amazing to get in on the ground level, though, 501 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 9: right you're looking at evaluation of one and a half trillions. 502 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:44,639 Speaker 3: Of time, is Paul, You're better at this? 503 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 2: I am. 504 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:46,919 Speaker 3: It's a timeless debate, it is. 505 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,680 Speaker 5: And you know, typically in an IPO, fifteen to twenty 506 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:53,240 Speaker 5: percent will be allocated to retail. If it's a tough 507 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:56,200 Speaker 5: to execute IPO, even more would go to retail because 508 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 5: they're less Christ sensitive. But this makes a lot of sense. 509 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,120 Speaker 5: I mean, Robin Hood's a huge platform, especially for young people, yep. 510 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 5: And it's a monster fifty billion dollars is there a 511 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,440 Speaker 5: red hearing yet, I'm not. I don't think so. I've 512 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,719 Speaker 5: not seen it. But the bottom line is they're going 513 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,199 Speaker 5: to need everybody and the brother to be, you know, 514 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 5: have access to this. 515 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,119 Speaker 9: Their brother, their mothers, this. 516 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:19,400 Speaker 5: I think it's going to be really I think it's 517 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,680 Speaker 5: gonna be absolutely fascinating and one of the most fascinating 518 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 5: ipeos of all time. In my opinion is it's it's 519 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 5: the story, it's Elon, it's the size and valuation, it's 520 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 5: all there. 521 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,160 Speaker 2: For just it just isn't a sign for twelve seconds 522 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 2: we are preparing over this frigid weekend to send astronauts 523 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:38,400 Speaker 2: into orbit around the Moon. 524 00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 3: It's barely in the zeitgeist. 525 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:42,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a good true. 526 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 9: It kind of got lost in the shuffle. 527 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,360 Speaker 2: I think we're talking like early February. You know, they're 528 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 2: they're getting, they're preparing, they're putting. It's like formula one. 529 00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 3: They're putting it to exactly exactly, rocket mixed all right. 530 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,359 Speaker 9: New York Times got a story the sun Dance Film 531 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 9: Festival saying bye bye to Park City, Utah. So it's 532 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,120 Speaker 9: happening this week, right, You got in industry insiders, fans 533 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,359 Speaker 9: are all making that annual pilgrimage over to Park City. 534 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 9: This was started, of course by Robert Redford, the late 535 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,520 Speaker 9: actor and director, back in nineteen eighty five. But they're 536 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:15,600 Speaker 9: moving over to Boulder, Colorado. Why you ask infrastructure because 537 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 9: Sundance has grown so much over the years, but you 538 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 9: can't beat financial incentives from the state and the city. 539 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 9: Apparently that was even better than Park City sixty percent 540 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 9: of their programming first or second time directors. Was always 541 00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,960 Speaker 9: sort of the spirit of indie films in indie artists. 542 00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 3: What I love about. 543 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 2: This is you can go out and now to Boulder 544 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,399 Speaker 2: and you can see some new indie film with your 545 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 2: course light at the sink. 546 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 3: Yep exactly. I maybe you could just sit right there 547 00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,560 Speaker 3: at the sink. Yeah, have the beverage of your choice, 548 00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 3: which we did. 549 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,800 Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely, And I hate just the festival just kind 550 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 5: of outgrew Park City, and quite frankly, Park City doesn't 551 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 5: need it. They're packed all season and it's almost like, oh, 552 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 5: now I got to make room for these film festival guys. 553 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,800 Speaker 5: I got to shut down my restaurant party. 554 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 9: And look like Davos right might be moving. They were 555 00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 9: talking about maybe having it. 556 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:09,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, sensitive issue is this question, alexis if you ever 557 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,120 Speaker 2: had a Corrus three to two beer? Oh? 558 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,080 Speaker 9: No, yeah, should I No, no, you shouldn't. 559 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 3: Okay, No, that's why Primo exists in the rain or 560 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:19,919 Speaker 3: whatever it was. 561 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:23,200 Speaker 9: No to sell business insider, this is a good one. 562 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:28,240 Speaker 9: Why Wall Streeters love expensive gyms. Look, you can spend 563 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 9: thousands of a month on an equinox, on a Chelsea 564 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,639 Speaker 9: pier's lifetime. They're all here in the city. Now you 565 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,320 Speaker 9: might think Tom and Paul that the draw here is 566 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 9: that eucalyptus steam room or that cold plunge pool, But no, no, 567 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:45,320 Speaker 9: it's about networking, socializing and guess what, actually being healthy. 568 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,399 Speaker 9: So a lot of these gyms they'll set up designated 569 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:50,919 Speaker 9: networking events. So you know, you would usually go to 570 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 9: the bar to do those kinds of things. Now people 571 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 9: are going to Jim, can I. 572 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,800 Speaker 2: Just editorialize, not that I need gym's a lot. The 573 00:27:57,880 --> 00:27:59,879 Speaker 2: cell phone is ruined gyms. 574 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,400 Speaker 3: In the Havings film. Now, yeah, thanks film. They workout 575 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 3: for those you radio. 576 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:08,280 Speaker 10: Your list pumping and then they look at their they 577 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 10: look at their phone and go, you know, you know 578 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 10: what's Carol and Tim say, I'm bloomberg rate and then 579 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,400 Speaker 10: they get back into another exercise. 580 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 5: Hedge fund manager said, banks will now take us out 581 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,360 Speaker 5: do a workout class instead of getting a drink. It's 582 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 5: a good value if someone pays fifty bucks for your 583 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,200 Speaker 5: pilates class, boy times a change. 584 00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:27,840 Speaker 3: It's I was gonna say, I didn't get that. Alexis Christopher, 585 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,720 Speaker 3: thank you so much. That is the newspapers for the day. 586 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 587 00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:40,160 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 588 00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:43,800 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 589 00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 590 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 591 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal 592 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:00,120 Speaker 2: M