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Speaker 1: Happy Friday, Fantasy coaches, and welcome to the Fantasy Pros

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Speaker 1: Football Podcast. I'm your host, Bobby Sylvester. Today, in every

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Speaker 1: Friday of the season, we're gonna be covering DFS strategy

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Speaker 1: and plays with some of the top minds in the business. Today,

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Speaker 1: I'm joined by Doug Norry of Daily Fantasy Sports Rankings

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Speaker 1: that's DFSR dot com. And as always, I've got my

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Speaker 1: producer JP Gail by my side, who's just been absolute

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Speaker 1: superstarter in the preseason rush, So thank you JP for

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Speaker 1: doing that. We're gonna be giving away a free my

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Speaker 1: Playbook upgrade next week. It's the Ultimate Package, which is

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Speaker 1: the best one we have as far as I'm concerned.

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Speaker 1: It's the most important package of info you can get

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Speaker 1: this season if you want to win your fantasy league.

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Speaker 1: It comes with unlimited team imports and all kinds of

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Speaker 1: tools that can help you from analyzing trades to building

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Speaker 1: top NUTCH DFS lineups. All you have to do to

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Speaker 1: enter the sweepstakes, rate and review us on iTunes the podcast,

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Speaker 1: copy and pasting into an email that's Bobby at Fantasypros

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Speaker 1: dot com, and then we'll notify the winner next week.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look at some DFS now.

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Speaker 1: Hi Doug, thanks for coming on the show. Yeah, great

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Speaker 1: to be here. Thanks thanks a ton for having me

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Speaker 1: excited to talk some football heading into week one finally here. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I definitely am too. I love building DFS football lineups.

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Speaker 1: There's just nothing like it. There's so much to consider

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Speaker 1: and so many plays that I love that I just

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Speaker 1: fall in love with my lineups throughout the week. The

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Speaker 1: worst part is, I think the entire week to second

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Speaker 1: guests myself, and that's one of the biggest errors I make.

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Speaker 1: What have you seen or what have you done? That

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Speaker 1: are really common DFS errors? What errors have I made? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I think you know, when you start off playing

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Speaker 1: it can be the biggest error I think you can

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Speaker 1: make really in any DFS sport. Football's included in this.

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Speaker 1: It's just not having a baseline system to draw your

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Speaker 1: analysis from. So what you end up having to do

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Speaker 1: is basically try to parse through all this just like

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Speaker 1: almost the infinite amount of that data that's out there,

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Speaker 1: and if you don't have a way to sort of

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Speaker 1: put it into a system and at least draw out

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Speaker 1: the beginnings of your thoughts, it can be just too overwhelmos.

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Speaker 1: So I would think the biggest mistake people can make

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Speaker 1: is either not creating some kind of projection system on

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Speaker 1: their own or not subscribing to one where someone has

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Speaker 1: put the leg you know, like we do, and a

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Speaker 1: ton of other sites out there where someone's put into

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Speaker 1: legwork to try to filter down all of the information

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Speaker 1: into one number at the end, I think. So I

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Speaker 1: think that is like it's sort of like written large problem,

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Speaker 1: but I think that's ultimately the Bigges decision, because otherwise

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Speaker 1: you get caught in this this guy or this guy

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Speaker 1: debate and you can just talk yourself a million ways

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Speaker 1: on each side. Really typically it's a great point. You know.

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Speaker 1: It's something that a lot of people, when you ask

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Speaker 1: them this question, they kind of overlook. But it's it's

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Speaker 1: like the most fundamental air that so many people make.

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Speaker 1: They just kind of wing it. They buy their gut,

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Speaker 1: and it's like saber metrics, saber metrics in baseball. There's

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Speaker 1: so much information out there, just use it. We're not

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Speaker 1: saying it's the only information, but it is the only

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Speaker 1: measurable information, and so get yourself some measurable DFS information.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of sites out there that have it,

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Speaker 1: Doug site is great. We also offer some stuff and

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Speaker 1: love to have you take a look at both of them.

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Speaker 1: Something else that I do is, for some reason, I'm

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Speaker 1: always trying to squeeze a guy into my lineup who

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Speaker 1: plays on Monday night, just so I can watch my

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Speaker 1: team try to leap frog some of the teams at

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Speaker 1: the top. It just makes it more fun for me.

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Speaker 1: But you know, if you're trying to manufacture that type

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Speaker 1: of enjoyment, you're also lessening your chances to win, Is

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Speaker 1: that right, Doug? Sure? Then you see that again also

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Speaker 1: in the same vein. You'll see that a lot like

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Speaker 1: or you know with Thursday games where people is the

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Speaker 1: only game in town and you have the Thursday through

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Speaker 1: Monday or through Sunday contests, and people would get into

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Speaker 1: the fall suppression that either a they want to have

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Speaker 1: a little sweat going. I mean, if that's just what

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Speaker 1: you want to do for fun, fine, go for it,

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Speaker 1: right um, But you know they want to have a

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Speaker 1: little sweat on that Thursday night, they want to have

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Speaker 1: something to root for, or they think that they want

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Speaker 1: to jump out to a lead, which is really just

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Speaker 1: that's a fallacy. You can't really jump out to any lead,

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Speaker 1: everyone's gonna end up playing so um so you can.

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Speaker 1: There's really a big edge to have on those nights

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Speaker 1: where if you think that a player will go over

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Speaker 1: owned simply because of the timing of the game, like

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Speaker 1: you know, Denver Verse Carolina, you really we shouldn't have

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Speaker 1: too much exposure to that game for fantasy purposes. But

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Speaker 1: every percentage of person that does because they just want

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Speaker 1: to root for Cam or you know whatever, is probably

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Speaker 1: getting their money in bad just to start. So I

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Speaker 1: would try to say I would steer clear of situations

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Speaker 1: like that if you can. Again, if that's if that's

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Speaker 1: your if your goal is too profit, if your goal

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Speaker 1: is just to have fun and root for guys, then

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Speaker 1: do your money and do whatever you want. Right. But

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Speaker 1: um but I would say in general, negative ECV situations

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Speaker 1: like that are best avoided. It doesn't matter the day

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Speaker 1: of the week, Doug. I couldn't agree about that more.

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Speaker 1: And that's why I love playing Thursday night GPPs because

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Speaker 1: you have a real good idea of what the own

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Speaker 1: ship is going to look like. I mean, you know

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Speaker 1: that Cam Newton's going to be super high owned even

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Speaker 1: though he's really not a top ten quarterback this week

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Speaker 1: as far as I'm concerned, and his price is so high,

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Speaker 1: so you can really take advantage of people wanting to

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Speaker 1: play Thursday nights and just watch the game and have

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Speaker 1: their guys going. And likewise, I love to sneak in

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Speaker 1: a guy who's questionable there because GPP, you have to

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Speaker 1: hit some home runs and no one's going to play

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Speaker 1: the questionable guys. Their ownership is going to be real low,

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Speaker 1: and if he explodes, you're the one guy who has

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Speaker 1: him and your lineups in great shape. And we're in

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Speaker 1: a weird situation now with the NFL's new injury reporting

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Speaker 1: policy where we're just not one hundred percent sure on you.

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Speaker 1: Guys that maybe should have had some probable tags are

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Speaker 1: now listed as questionable, and we're trying to pass through

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Speaker 1: some of that information. I think most of it will

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Speaker 1: become clear by Sunday, but on Thursday it's anything but.

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Speaker 1: And so you get a guy like I mean, Julio

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Speaker 1: Jones maybe has been upgraded the probable now, but well actually,

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Speaker 1: but you can't be upgraded the probable anymore. So he's

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Speaker 1: listed as questionable and he's actually probably just more like

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Speaker 1: a lock to play. So anyone to talk themselves out

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Speaker 1: of that position, with Julio as an example, is again

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Speaker 1: putting themselves behind the apall because they you know, because

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Speaker 1: they're they're they're worried about the risk, and that's not

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Speaker 1: the same for everybody. These guys all exist on some

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Speaker 1: kind of injury scale. But yeah, no, I totally agree

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Speaker 1: with you. Getting getting sort of speculative plays on a

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Speaker 1: Thursday like that is definitely the way to go. I

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Speaker 1: used to love Thursday plays because you could just play

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Speaker 1: a head to head against some of the top minds

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Speaker 1: in the business and get an idea of who they

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Speaker 1: have in their lineup. But now now Fandel prevents you

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Speaker 1: from doing that because you can't see who they have

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Speaker 1: in your lineup until they're actually playing on that Sunday.

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Speaker 1: So it's a good move they made, but there were

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Speaker 1: some tricks to be had. Now we can't even know

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Speaker 1: what the ownership levels are on Thursday nights, and that's

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Speaker 1: a real bummer. But because of that, we're building a

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Speaker 1: FanDuel and draft Kings and also Yahoo ownership recentage estimation,

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Speaker 1: and I have to say, when we were auditing it

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Speaker 1: to see if it worked last year, it was right

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Speaker 1: on the money. I couldn't believe how well this worked.

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Speaker 1: I kind of thought it was a waste of time.

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Speaker 1: But we're gonna be releasing that, so keep an eye

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Speaker 1: out on Fantasy pros dot com for that. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about some lineup theory, gug, what's the difference

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Speaker 1: between fandel and Draft Kings scoring? Like, how how are

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Speaker 1: the lineups different? How should this impact your strategy? Well,

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Speaker 1: there's two major The major difference between Draft Kings and

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Speaker 1: Vanduel is just how they score reception. So Draft Kings

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Speaker 1: is full PPR and FanDuel's half and and that is

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Speaker 1: going to obviously wait things more for wide receivers on

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Speaker 1: Draft Kings just because you're getting that half point with

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Speaker 1: each with each reception. So that's the That's the big

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Speaker 1: that's really the only major scoring difference between the two.

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Speaker 1: The other part, the other difference, major difference between building

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Speaker 1: lineups and both sites is in general, the DraftKings has

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Speaker 1: a wider spread of salaries. And while sometimes that's super

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Speaker 1: beneficial because you can grab players on the lower end

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Speaker 1: of the tier for value, it also it makes it

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Speaker 1: difficult to roster more of the higher and salary guys

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Speaker 1: because they're just all the way up the scale, and

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Speaker 1: because the ranges, you would think that it would be easier,

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Speaker 1: but it's actually just kind of not, especially in this

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Speaker 1: week one where because Fandel has this writing a little closer,

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Speaker 1: it just means that the upper level guys never stray

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Speaker 1: too far away from the middle and lower and then

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Speaker 1: you just can't make a case to play those cheaper

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Speaker 1: guys always, whereas on DraftKings you just aren't afforded the

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Speaker 1: same kind of opportunity with the salary constraints. So I

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Speaker 1: would say I would say those are probably the two

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Speaker 1: biggest differences between the sites as I see it right now.

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Speaker 1: That flex play on Draft Kings too, especially with the PPR.

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Speaker 1: You can get four great wide receivers in DraftKings PPR

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Speaker 1: and then grab yourself a theoretic and a Danny Woodhead,

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Speaker 1: two guys that you know are going to get a

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Speaker 1: lot of receptions in your lineup. Looks really weird. But

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Speaker 1: you could never do something like that on FanDuel. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you don't have the four wide receiver option, and those

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Speaker 1: PPR running backs don't matter on FanDuel very much. They

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Speaker 1: do and they don't. It's it's interesting where I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, according to our system, it still wants you

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Speaker 1: to pay all the way up for the upper echelon

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Speaker 1: wide receivers in both cases, and it's always and it's

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Speaker 1: going to it's going to point in the direction of

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Speaker 1: having more guys that do receive out of the backfield.

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Speaker 1: But really, really, really for week one, and we'll get

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Speaker 1: into this up more in a second, I'm sure as

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Speaker 1: we kind of rolled through some of the questions that

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Speaker 1: we need to answer heading into the first week. But

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Speaker 1: the more of the thing, you just want to look

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Speaker 1: at who the same volume guys are just going to

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Speaker 1: be in general, and that is sometimes the hardest thing

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Speaker 1: to parse out. Yeah, it definitely is, and I guess

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Speaker 1: that's why we're here. We're here to answer those questions.

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Speaker 1: So I'm looking forward to hearing what you have to

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Speaker 1: say about it. Doug Um. Yeah, this is a so

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if you want to start,

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Speaker 1: like you we can talk about some you know, positional stuff.

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Speaker 1: However you kind of want to play it, It's up

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Speaker 1: to you. There's it seems to me like there's almost

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Speaker 1: infinite things. That's all I've been thinking about for last

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Speaker 1: month basically, and juggling numbers around, So I don't know

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Speaker 1: if you want to hit on some positions and or

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Speaker 1: you know who we who we see as the upper

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Speaker 1: tier of value going in. Yeah, I've got a couple

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Speaker 1: more lineup theory questions because a lot of guys listening

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Speaker 1: you maybe haven't played FanDuel or Draft Kings before, or

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Speaker 1: maybe they're new to it, and I've just kind of

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Speaker 1: been winging it like we're talking about. So what exactly

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Speaker 1: is the difference between GPPN cash games? Yeah, short, and

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Speaker 1: sometimes we always joke about because these things are just

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Speaker 1: totally mislabeled in terms of industry jargon. It's just so

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Speaker 1: sort of a trainless spun out of control early and

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Speaker 1: now it can't be stopped because it's needlessly confusing, and

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Speaker 1: it's essentially cash is just a fifty fifty contest or

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Speaker 1: the top half or top forty percent, depending on the structure,

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Speaker 1: take home essentially double the money they put in. You know,

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Speaker 1: put in five, win ten if you finish in the

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Speaker 1: top in the top, let's just say half and then

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Speaker 1: GBP is a shorter, though more confusing term for tournaments,

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Speaker 1: which are the big ones that you typically see that

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Speaker 1: you see promoted for commercials. You know where you can

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Speaker 1: win a million dollars by becoming the Draft Kings millionaire.

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Speaker 1: And you say it again, how do you change your

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Speaker 1: lineup to fit for those strategies? Sure you well, in

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Speaker 1: cash games especially, you were just simply going for safety.

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Speaker 1: You do not need to beat the whole field. You

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Speaker 1: simply just need to beat half of it. You do

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Speaker 1: not need to take chances typically where you don't need

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Speaker 1: to be speculative in a way where you need to be.

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Speaker 1: With GPPs, you can just sort of take a look

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Speaker 1: at who are the safe I put the words safe

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Speaker 1: in quotes because it's a term that different people use

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Speaker 1: in different ways. I tend to mean it um a

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Speaker 1: player that's expect to hit their weight and mean average

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Speaker 1: projection more often than another. But the GPP piece you

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Speaker 1: need to you know, there's a couple different pieces you

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Speaker 1: can go on. In football, there's a stacking component where

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Speaker 1: you want to pair together maybe a quarterback or a

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Speaker 1: running back, or even accume a quarterback in a wide

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Speaker 1: receiver or possibly all three from a game that has

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Speaker 1: a high implied total where you think there's going to

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Speaker 1: be a lot of volume because you figure, you know,

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Speaker 1: the quarterback and the wide receiver are compounding their points

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Speaker 1: by one passing to the other or to the running

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Speaker 1: back as well. You want, you can. You can take

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Speaker 1: a game stack where a good example of that would

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Speaker 1: be Oakland and New Orleans this week, where it's expected

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Speaker 1: to be a shootout, and you think, well, if one

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Speaker 1: team is working hard to keep up with the other,

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Speaker 1: then everyone benefits, you know, in your lineup if you

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Speaker 1: can piece together the right place GPPs. You know, there's

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Speaker 1: lots of people that have theory on this. I'm tempted

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Speaker 1: to say it's very lottery ticketing in the sense that

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Speaker 1: you need to get very, very very lucky to win

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Speaker 1: one of these. You increase your chances by having more

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Speaker 1: buy ins into a tournament than than just one. So

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Speaker 1: you know, so you'll see top pros that will put

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Speaker 1: in hundreds of combinations on the chance that they're going

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Speaker 1: to just increase their overall expectation by having more combinations.

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Speaker 1: Then person that put in a three dollars entry and

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Speaker 1: just hope to hope for the best. So ultimately, the

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Speaker 1: best strategy is to have a number of positive expected

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Speaker 1: value combinations you can all and then you can help

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Speaker 1: yourself by you know, stacking and doing some other doing

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Speaker 1: some other pieces along the margins as well. How do

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Speaker 1: you feel about stacking? Do you think that it's a

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Speaker 1: wise way to go? Well, what's your personal opinion. I

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Speaker 1: think it is it makes sense and there's some math

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Speaker 1: that backs it up with positive correlations between quarterbacks and

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Speaker 1: wide receivers putting up the higher numbers in expected lineup.

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Speaker 1: I mean the other piece of it is too if

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Speaker 1: you run, if you run optimal lineups after the fact

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Speaker 1: to see you know, which what would have been the

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Speaker 1: best lineup that you could have put together? It doesn't

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Speaker 1: always have a stack in it, but that's also that

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Speaker 1: you're hoping that you hit the exact right combination of players.

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Speaker 1: I think in general, stack what's that which nobody can know?

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Speaker 1: No right and so so you'll see stacking the other

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Speaker 1: piece of stacking that it just makes it easier to

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Speaker 1: have a mindset about what you're trying to do. And

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Speaker 1: I think that is the big thing that helps as well,

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Speaker 1: is that you can instead instead of just essentially picking

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Speaker 1: random players to put us throughout your lineup, you have

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Speaker 1: a theme and I think that theme actually helps helps

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Speaker 1: get your mindset straight in terms of how you want

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Speaker 1: to build a line up. So I think it helps

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Speaker 1: from an an organizational standpoint, and it does have benefits

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Speaker 1: too in the way that you can score them as well.

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Speaker 1: Now in GPP, do you go for low ownership, does

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Speaker 1: that matter to you? Or do you just get high ended,

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Speaker 1: high upset guys? No matter what? UM, it kind of depends, right.

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Speaker 1: So there's sometimes well you'll know, you know, you were

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Speaker 1: talked about knowing or guessing it owner. I think guessing

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Speaker 1: if you know, predicting ownership percentages. And there's you know,

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Speaker 1: a term called fading, which means if you think or

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Speaker 1: know that a player is going to be high owned,

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Speaker 1: you try to take the opposite side of it or

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Speaker 1: be contrarian to on the chance that that player underperforms

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Speaker 1: and therefore a large majority of the field just kind

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Speaker 1: of gets dusted by by by having that player and

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Speaker 1: you lead to the top. You see that a lot

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Speaker 1: with like survivor pools in football too, where you know,

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Speaker 1: going against going going contrarian and going against the grain. UM.

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Speaker 1: I think it's it's not a perfect science, right. I

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Speaker 1: think sometimes the highest, the highest maybe percentage owned play

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Speaker 1: also happens to be the guy with the highest up sign.

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Speaker 1: I'll use the Julio Jones example again, where you can

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Speaker 1: think about fading him and there's some chance that he

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Speaker 1: has a bad game for sure. You know, the guys

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Speaker 1: are never guaranteed. It also wouldn't shock me if he

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Speaker 1: was the highest owned player and had the best game,

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Speaker 1: right and so and so. There it's an inexact science.

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Speaker 1: I think there's plenty of examples of guys that I

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Speaker 1: think will be high owned that I would be happily

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Speaker 1: fade um because I'm just not convinced that they have

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Speaker 1: as high expectation as maybe the public think. So again,

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Speaker 1: I know I'm sort of like hedging with my answer there,

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Speaker 1: but it's just to me, it's not just a binary

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Speaker 1: A to B either either do it or don't do it.

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Speaker 1: It's sort of case specific, all right. In JP, you

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Speaker 1: had a real good question that I want you to

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Speaker 1: jump in and ask. Yeah, Doug, I just wanted to

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Speaker 1: get your opinion on leaving money on the table. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm When I first started playing, I was always like,

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Speaker 1: I have to spend all my money, even if I

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Speaker 1: have I have a hundred dollars left over, even if

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Speaker 1: I like my guys, I need to spend that hundred dollars.

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Speaker 1: But as I kept playing, I started to get more

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Speaker 1: comfortable leaving one two hundred dollars on the table. And

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Speaker 1: so just give us your thoughts on leaving money on

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Speaker 1: the table. Sure, Okay, So I would say in cash

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Speaker 1: games or fifty fifties, you should really never do it.

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Speaker 1: I mean outside of these super short like you know,

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Speaker 1: Sunday Night and Monday Game something like that, where maybe

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Speaker 1: it just it just there's so few options that you have.

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Speaker 1: But really, for a main slate or anytime that there's

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Speaker 1: a majority of the games, you really there's never, almost

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Speaker 1: never a case that you should leave money at the

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Speaker 1: table for cash games because if you just run down

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Speaker 1: the projections for players and in the way that the

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Speaker 1: pricing is closesh on a lot of guys, you're always

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Speaker 1: going to be able to get You're always going to

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Speaker 1: be able to fit another player with whose expected points

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Speaker 1: are higher by just using all your money, if that's

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Speaker 1: like an easy way to say it. Now for tournaments,

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Speaker 1: it's different. For tournaments, I think you can, and especially

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Speaker 1: you can when you have a lineup that you like.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to keep using the same example over and

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Speaker 1: over again, but whatever. It just works in this case

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Speaker 1: with Julio, so because I just think he fits. He

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Speaker 1: checks a lot of boxes in terms of question marks

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Speaker 1: for what it comes to tournaments. But if you thought

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Speaker 1: if you had a lineup where you had you basically

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Speaker 1: essentially used all of your money, and you had Julio

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Speaker 1: in it, and you also thought there was some chance

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Speaker 1: that he was going to be a highly owned and

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Speaker 1: b just get shut down or you know whatever, it's

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Speaker 1: so new that gets all the targets or something like

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Speaker 1: that this week and spending down to a next tier

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Speaker 1: wide receiver like an Amari Cooper, then that's a big

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Speaker 1: it's a big shift down in terms of salary. But

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Speaker 1: it's also you can also presume that no one else

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Speaker 1: is really going to do that, right So if you so,

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Speaker 1: that's where you actually get your separation. And that's those

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Speaker 1: are cases where I'm fine, totally fine moving down and

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Speaker 1: not having all your money. It's a lot easier when

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Speaker 1: you're doing multiple entries, Like if that was your one entry,

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Speaker 1: I can understand it'd be tough to stomach that. You know,

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Speaker 1: just what you walk in leave fifteen hundred or something

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Speaker 1: like that on the table. I'm not sure if that's

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Speaker 1: a perfect number between between Jones and Cooper. But the

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Speaker 1: point being, you take a receiver that will be maybe

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Speaker 1: less owned and it's definitely not in the same price

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Speaker 1: here and make that your pivot. And I think there

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Speaker 1: is a situation where I'm totally happy doing it. It

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Speaker 1: works like a quarterback too, Like if you love Russell,

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Speaker 1: you know, you think a lot of people are going

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Speaker 1: to play. It's not perfect this week because there's some

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Speaker 1: quarterback value, but you know, let's say, you know, Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers was the top quarterback this week, and he was,

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Speaker 1: you know, in that nine thousand range, and then Derek

389
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Speaker 1: Carr was fifteen hundred less. Moving down to car where

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Speaker 1: no one else is going to do that and leaving

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Speaker 1: that money is is That's like, those are examples of

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Speaker 1: that I would use, and I would say that's totally

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Speaker 1: fine to do. Wow, I've never heard that before. It's

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Speaker 1: really interesting, but also scares me to death. What scares

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Speaker 1: you to death? If it doesn't scare you to death

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Speaker 1: to be of one hundred lineups because you're just like,

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Speaker 1: well but not everyone does that, right, so um, it

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Speaker 1: scares you to death that you're doing single entries and

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Speaker 1: or just or that's just your or your your your

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Speaker 1: back roll means that you're just not going to put

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Speaker 1: in You're not going to put in ten lines even right, So, um,

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00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:25,159
Speaker 1: that's where it's. It's a little harder to do, and

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Speaker 1: I get it, And that's a mental pieces. It becomes

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Speaker 1: easier as you as you move out in terms of

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Speaker 1: how many different combinations you have, and then you can

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Speaker 1: just and then and then and then I don't know,

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00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,440
Speaker 1: it just becomes easier that way. All right, Let's move

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Speaker 1: over and talk about some of these players finally, and

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Speaker 1: I want to start at the quarterback position. Both Dak,

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00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,680
Speaker 1: Prescott and Wentz are five thousand dollars a piece. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that is super super low. All these prices, by the way,

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Speaker 1: that we're gonna be talking about on this podcast are

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Speaker 1: FanDuel prices. Um. So, Doug, why don't you tell me

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Speaker 1: what you think about Dak and Wentz? Are they the

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00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:58,880
Speaker 1: best values this week? In which one do you like more?

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Speaker 1: I think the big big thing is Dak is the

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Speaker 1: probably the real question. I wouldn't put them in the

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Speaker 1: same page for a couple of different on the same plane,

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Speaker 1: for a couple of different reasons. Dak I think will

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Speaker 1: probably be the most highly owned quarterback this week. He's

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Speaker 1: had the gift of he's a couple of things in

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Speaker 1: his favor right. So he plays on a team that

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Speaker 1: the public loves he played or hates. They're at least

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Speaker 1: aware of. They're at least aware of the Cowboys. I

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Speaker 1: should I shouldn't have said they love them, Um, the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: People are aware of the Cowboys. He's also on a

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Speaker 1: much better team in terms of he has an elite

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Speaker 1: wide receiver, one that Wentz does not have. He had

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Speaker 1: was actually pretty accurate in the preseason where he doesn't

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Speaker 1: maybe have the pedigree in terms of Wentz. But I

431
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 1: think Dak ends up being the probably chalk cash game

432
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 1: play because of what he allows you to do. The

433
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,680
Speaker 1: Giants defense is no great shakes, the game total is

434
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:48,880
Speaker 1: still supposed to be fine. He can actually run, which

435
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 1: raises his floor. I love using running quarterbacks in cash

436
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 1: games because they that just extra thirty or so yards.

437
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe that's a little bullish, but you know, let's

438
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,240
Speaker 1: say he gets thirty to forty yards rushing, possibly because

439
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:01,640
Speaker 1: he gets pushed out of the pocket. I mean, that's

440
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,880
Speaker 1: that's an entire passing touchdown right and so, which you're

441
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 1: just not going to get from someone with pocket passers.

442
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:09,119
Speaker 1: I think you ends up seeing Dak is the highest

443
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,560
Speaker 1: own player. I do believe that if Wentz, I mean,

444
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:15,159
Speaker 1: from our systems standpoint, if Wentz and Dak had just

445
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 1: were just switching their matchup, like so if Dak was

446
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:19,920
Speaker 1: playing the Browns and Wentz was playing the Giants. I

447
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 1: actually think it might be flip flopped from our system

448
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 1: because we do we go to great pains to figure

449
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 1: out exactly how much the opposing defense matters, for which

450
00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 1: I would hope all systems do because I don't know otherwise,

451
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,639
Speaker 1: I'm not really sure what you're doing. But um, I

452
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:36,640
Speaker 1: honestly think that it's that if they were to flip

453
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 1: flop their their their opponents, it would be a lot closer.

454
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:41,680
Speaker 1: But for me, it's went Wentz. I'm just shocked that

455
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,240
Speaker 1: the Eagles are even starting, and frankly, I it doesn't

456
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 1: seem to make sense. He wasn't that good in the preseason.

457
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 1: It didn't appear as if he was ready ready out

458
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 1: of college. And I do think that Dak is the

459
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 1: clear cut chalk play at quarterback. The real question becomes

460
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 1: whether or not you play him or don't. It's not

461
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 1: like a Dack verse. It's not a Dack verse Wentz

462
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,360
Speaker 1: question for me, it's a Dak verse everybody else question more.

463
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 1: And that's kind of where I fall on him. You know,

464
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:06,800
Speaker 1: Wentz is extremely smart. I think he's going to be

465
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,200
Speaker 1: a fine quarterback in the future, but this year he's

466
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 1: just a game manager. That's what they're gonna do against Cleveland.

467
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,399
Speaker 1: Cleveland's not a good team. I mean, Joe Hayden's a

468
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: shell of what he once was. But they're still not

469
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 1: going to pass a ton. They're just gonna feed the

470
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 1: ball to Ryan Matthews and you know, dump it off

471
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 1: to Darren Sprowls. And Wentz is not gonna have a

472
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 1: big game. Dak Brascott has him upside. Andy has a

473
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 1: nice high floor. I agree. I think Dak is going

474
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 1: to be owned about twenty five percent of twenty five

475
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 1: percent of line ups, which is huge for a quarterback.

476
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 1: Week one. I've got Drew Brees is my cash game quarterback,

477
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 1: and you know it's just because there's there's real high

478
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,360
Speaker 1: floor there. I don't think he's gonna hurt me. If

479
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:46,639
Speaker 1: it wasn't for Dak, I would actually probably I would

480
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 1: probably my top guy would probably be Russell Wilson this

481
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 1: week for a lot of the same reasons I mentioned

482
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 1: with Dak. They're not in the same plane in terms

483
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 1: of talent for me at all, but just in terms

484
00:21:55,359 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 1: of accuracy plus legs plus a nice matchup, and I

485
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 1: would it was really until the Romo thing, until Romo

486
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,239
Speaker 1: goes down, I was looking at probably Wilson at one

487
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 1: hundred percent start for for my games, but with maybe

488
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 1: some like Aaron Rodgers mixed in, but for some of

489
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 1: the against same reasons. But the Dack thing just pushes.

490
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,119
Speaker 1: He's just so much cheaper, and then that's really you

491
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 1: just you get so much savings for quarterbacks are pretty predictable,

492
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 1: Like if you look at their standard deviations or coefficient

493
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,719
Speaker 1: of variations, which is basically just applying how much it's

494
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,360
Speaker 1: it's a number that it basically just implies safety across

495
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 1: a player and a position, and quarterbacks are just very,

496
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 1: very predictable. And if you can get a predictable number

497
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 1: from a very cheap quarterback, then I'm fine taking it. Yeah, yep,

498
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 1: I definitely agree. Now here's a I'm expecting to get

499
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,719
Speaker 1: kind of a bowl dancer here. Maybe not. You already

500
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,160
Speaker 1: said Russell Wilson would have been your guy. But who

501
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 1: do you think he's going to be the top score

502
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 1: this week? Is it Wilson? I don't think it's going

503
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,400
Speaker 1: If I had to pick um now, well it could

504
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: be the problem with Wilson is I was My brain

505
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 1: typically goes towards like cash games and safety. That's what

506
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 1: I primarily play. I'll play tournaments also, but um, I

507
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 1: invest a large majority of my bank roll into cash games,

508
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 1: so therefore a large large part of my thinking is

509
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 1: geared toward that. Like so like ninety percent of my

510
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 1: thinking is geared for that. I don't think Wilson is

511
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 1: the favorite to have the highest scoring game, but it

512
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 1: wouldn't surprise me just because he has heat. Well, you know,

513
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,479
Speaker 1: they have some running back questions sort of. Um with

514
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 1: Michael own roles. He plays just a completely abysmal team

515
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 1: depending the past. The only problem with him, I think

516
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 1: is that they have some blowout concerns because there's such

517
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 1: a there's such a high favorite, and that could buzz

518
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,400
Speaker 1: off some of some of just like what Seattle wants

519
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 1: to do, especially if they just want to get out

520
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 1: of there. Quickly. I really love It's really hard to

521
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,479
Speaker 1: pick against that Saints game when in terms of overall

522
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 1: scoring the Saints Raiders, like you said, Breeze, I think

523
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 1: cars on the other side of that, if they really

524
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,479
Speaker 1: get into a shootout, I kind of love Rogers if

525
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:58,920
Speaker 1: I was to pick. If I was to pick, I

526
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 1: would probably say Aaron Rodger is actually because but I

527
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 1: just don't think he does it enough that it makes

528
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 1: it safe for me. But I think that he has

529
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 1: just about as munch upside as any as any quarterback here,

530
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 1: especially getting Jordian Nelson back. Now, who's one good valued

531
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 1: mid range player that you think could explode and surprise

532
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 1: everyone is being the top guy? Yeah, I would say

533
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 1: Tyrod Taylor's in that category for me. If he's able

534
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 1: to make some steps up in terms of just his

535
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 1: overall what he's been doing. Yeah, he's moving in the

536
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 1: right direction. They have some of their pieces back in place.

537
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 1: I'm not totally convinced that the defense he's facing is

538
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 1: going to be able to stop him. He would be

539
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,199
Speaker 1: This would be a lightning and a bottle for me.

540
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 1: But he again, I love I love defaulting to running

541
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 1: quarterbacks because it just gives you so many more points

542
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 1: that it takes up a pocket passer, just so many

543
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 1: more plays to make up. In one play, Taylor can

544
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,679
Speaker 1: get out and scramble and have it and have it

545
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 1: like like I said, a whole passing touchdown's worth of production.

546
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 1: And there's just very few guys in the league that

547
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,640
Speaker 1: can do that. So I would go him like mid range,

548
00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 1: a little bit of upside. I think it's there for him.

549
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 1: You know, it's amazing you say Tyrod Taylor. And everybody

550
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 1: likes Tyrod Taylor this season. I haven't talked to anyone

551
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 1: who doesn't like where Tyrod Taylor's ranked. Well, I like

552
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 1: him better than where he's ranked. But on FanDuel, he's

553
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: the twentieth highest price quarterback this week. That doesn't make

554
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 1: any sense to me. No, no, no, he shouldn't be

555
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,119
Speaker 1: priced like he's definately should not be priced in the

556
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 1: same tier as like Ryan Fitzpatrick or I mean, below Mariota.

557
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 1: I wouldn't do. I wouldn't you know, I would play

558
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 1: him over any of those guys in his tier basically

559
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,239
Speaker 1: probably all the like pass Matt Ryan. Like for our

560
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,200
Speaker 1: project I'm just looking real quick at our projection system.

561
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 1: I have him price. I have him outscoring everyone up

562
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: until you reach Derek car at seventy seven hundred and

563
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 1: then really, I mean, I think he's like the fourth overall.

564
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 1: He's two one, two, three four and no one wants

565
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: to hear accounting on an audio thing, but he's the

566
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 1: He is the sixth highest raw points projection guy we

567
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 1: have going into this game, and that was I'd probably

568
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,719
Speaker 1: be a surprise for most people. Yeah, I'm really not

569
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 1: too surprised by that, but anyone who's not paying attention

570
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 1: is probably very surprised. I have him number eight on

571
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: my rankings this week, just behind Cousins, who's he's just

572
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 1: a monster at home, and Stafford, who you know, he's

573
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 1: going up against the worst defense ever. I talked about

574
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 1: this last show, and maybe it's not true, but Indianapolis

575
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 1: without Vante Davis, what are they going to do against

576
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: Jim bunk Cooter's offense. Well, yeah, it's funny. That's another thing.

577
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 1: In my partner and my business partner, I James Davis.

578
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,919
Speaker 1: We've spend just hours and hours and hours looking at

579
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 1: our projective system and trying to wait these things. And

580
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 1: you know, one of those difficult things to wait is

581
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 1: when a team either adds a player or loses a player, Like, so,

582
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,479
Speaker 1: what happens to Indianapolis first wide receiver ones when they

583
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,160
Speaker 1: don't have Ante Davis. It's a kind of impossible to know, right,

584
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 1: So we have number we have numbers that break this

585
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: down and try to put it an actual metric on

586
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 1: what he does. And we know what he does, but

587
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 1: we don't know what he you know, we don't know

588
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: what they can do without him, so um, you know,

589
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 1: we've tried to regress some of that for him, and

590
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,119
Speaker 1: we do like to Detroit wide receivers m same with

591
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 1: Calvin Johnson, though Calvin Johnson's missing, So who knows what

592
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 1: Stafford's gonna do? All right, And that's a question about

593
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,040
Speaker 1: you know, who is even the wide receiver one on

594
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 1: on Detroit as a Jones or as a Tate. We

595
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: don't know. We have some historical stuff with Tate that

596
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 1: suggests he has a good thing with with with Stafford,

597
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 1: but Jones has a lot of preseason hype and so, um,

598
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 1: these are these are the hardest things to answer a

599
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 1: Week one in any That's the single hardest thing about

600
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 1: Week one in NFL is you just don't know, right

601
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 1: and this is where going back to it makes a

602
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 1: week one so fun to me, It makes it profitable

603
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 1: to me because if you just play it safe, like

604
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:26,919
Speaker 1: if you just if you just play it honestly, if

605
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 1: you just play it safe and just take really known quantities, right,

606
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 1: you know, D'angela Williams is going to get the ball.

607
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 1: You know Julio Jones are going to get targeted. You

608
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 1: know Antonio brown And is going to get targeted, though

609
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 1: there's a Josh Norman problem with him possibly face it

610
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 1: with the Redskins. Um So, as much as much known

611
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 1: things as you can, as you can use to your

612
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 1: your advantage, you will be able to prop it. It's

613
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 1: people that try to speculate and figure out like, oh

614
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 1: is this he giel it going to get twenty five touches.

615
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: I mean I've heard people say that seems insane to me,

616
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 1: and um like it seems like saying that people would

617
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 1: think it and why would you even risk it when

618
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 1: you just know what some of these other teams do.

619
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: So I don't know that's where That's where I just

620
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:08,080
Speaker 1: want to play it as safe as possible. I'm a

621
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 1: concern I'm a conservative guy. Yeah, yeah, I'm glad you

622
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 1: mentioned D'Angelo Williams because I wanted to talk about him.

623
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: I think he's the safest guy on the slate agree

624
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 1: any position. We have him ranked as our top projected

625
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:22,479
Speaker 1: running back this week, and we see what he does

626
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 1: when he gets the ball, and he's gonna get the ball,

627
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 1: So why would you not play him at his price point?

628
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 1: I think he'd be crazy too. This is where I

629
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 1: want to like, I'm hoping my great hope is for

630
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: like for Thursday lineups or even Sunday, is that people

631
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 1: talk themselves into something like and this might end up

632
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 1: being the case with our system as well, but and

633
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 1: I kind of hope it's not. But then you talk

634
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: yourselves into either a paying up a little higher for

635
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 1: like a Davante Freeman or Peterson or Gurley, which seems

636
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 1: just totally wrong to me, or being super speculative along

637
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 1: those Ezekiel Elliott lines that just also doesn't seem to

638
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 1: pay like he seems miss priced. I don't seventy one

639
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,959
Speaker 1: hundred on Fandel. It's he should be the highest one

640
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 1: running back. I'm not positive he will be, but he

641
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 1: should be because we just know we know what the

642
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 1: Steelers do when when he's the starter, he gets the

643
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: ball a ton so and you can't replicate that. I

644
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 1: don't think he will be the highest priced. I heard

645
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 1: the highest owed I think spencer Ware, And now I

646
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 1: want to know what you think about that. Both spencer

647
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 1: Ware and Christine Michael are nice and cheap on fan duel,

648
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: and they're supposed to be the starters. They're supposed to

649
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,959
Speaker 1: get the most carries. But are we speculating about this

650
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 1: or can we be sure where it's going to get himself?

651
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 1: You know, twelve fifteen touches and if he does, we've

652
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: seen what he can do. If the if the Chiefs

653
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 1: came out and said it, which I don't think they're

654
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 1: going to do, um, I would have no problem with it.

655
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 1: I'm going back and forth. There's been This has been

656
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 1: the single probably the biggest piece of debate that we've had,

657
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 1: like around our system, is what to do with where

658
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: I'm not willing to play him on going into Thursday

659
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 1: night because we just don't know. And they have just

660
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: enough other guys like West Davis who may eat into

661
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 1: his touches that I'm not positive. I think probably what

662
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 1: ends up happening is by Sunday. There is enough of

663
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 1: either practice reports and I don't think Charles is gonna play.

664
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 1: It's actually not even the Charles. Thing that I have

665
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 1: a problem with is that I'm just not totally convinced

666
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 1: that the Chiefs use him as a twenty touch guy.

667
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 1: And that's really my biggest that's my biggest fear with him.

668
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 1: I think he'll probably end up being like the Chalk

669
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 1: play because people will talk themselves into it. Michael. I mean,

670
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 1: Roles is supposed to play, so I'm a little less

671
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 1: bullish on him. But I'm just I think where is

672
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 1: a great play because he's so cheap. I'm just very

673
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,959
Speaker 1: concerned that we've been down this road where we think

674
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: we know who's going to get all the carry. I mean,

675
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 1: for the Chiefs have done it specifically in the past,

676
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 1: and so we just think we know and we're so convinced,

677
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 1: and then he just goes out and gets ten touches

678
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:46,719
Speaker 1: or something like. I just wouldn't be shocked if if

679
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 1: that happened. Doug, you're really scaring me because I'm playing

680
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 1: on playing Spencer wearing. I don't think it's a bad play.

681
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: I think actually, but he's so cheap he's so cheap

682
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 1: that you can actually have it happen and not get

683
00:30:56,160 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: totally buzzed. But it's just like I said, it's just

684
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 1: that's that's my concern with it, Like I just don't

685
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: want to I've heard people say like, well, and even

686
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,479
Speaker 1: I said it. We did our podcast there day and

687
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: I was really I was really hammering home the safety

688
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 1: and wear, and then I just went and did a

689
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 1: little more reading between the lines and some of the

690
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 1: things they said, and then I just kind of said, oh,

691
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 1: I wish I maybe I hadn't I hadn't gone so

692
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 1: crazy about that, because now I'm just not so sure.

693
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 1: So I'm mostly just speaking like Devil's advocate on the

694
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,719
Speaker 1: side of wear. Of course. Yeah, and I'm not arguing

695
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: with you because everything you said it's true. It's uh,

696
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 1: it really is a concern. And that's why I want

697
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 1: to talk about Christine Michaels, because he is listed as

698
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 1: the number one running back and Seattle they're almost certainly

699
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 1: going to be up one or two touchdowns the entire

700
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 1: game running the ball. Why would they run the ball

701
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 1: with Thomas Rawls, who's coming back from an ankle injury

702
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 1: when you know he might aggravate that in a in

703
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: a game that's not super important because they're gonna have

704
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 1: a big lead, why not just keep feeding the ball

705
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,719
Speaker 1: to Christine Michaels, see what you have and uh, you know,

706
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: and let him hold onto the rock and win the game. See,

707
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 1: And this is why I wish, well, this is the

708
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 1: great the great hope would be we could always just

709
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 1: like hope the teams do the thing that seems like

710
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: it would make total sense and and just and just

711
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 1: we've been proven, it's proven time at their time that

712
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 1: they just don't. And so this is where I just

713
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 1: like I just try to preach this conservative approach over

714
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: and over again. Is that because you can just get

715
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 1: burned on believing you know exactly what a team should

716
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 1: do and and everything you said they should do that, right,

717
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: that makes sense? Like they they are not tied to

718
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 1: Michael going forward as they are to Roles, right, so

719
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 1: why why bother? But if you thought that Roles was

720
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: going to get six to eight touches in this game,

721
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 1: and you thought there was only like twenty four carries

722
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: to go around, it's really cutting it close on Michael now, right,

723
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 1: because because that's just not it's not an insane volume

724
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 1: that makes him a clear cut play. And it's the

725
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 1: same problem with where if you thought, you know, West

726
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: or Davis or something like that cuts in to twenty

727
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 1: five percent of the carries or maybe some third down stuff,

728
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 1: it's just not He's just not a run Those guys

729
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 1: just aren't runaway favorites as opposed to like D'Angel Williams

730
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 1: or even like Lamar Miller kind of that are in

731
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 1: that same range where I think we can be a

732
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 1: little more confident with the team how the team plans

733
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: to use them. The thing about both Michael and Ware

734
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: is that they're so cheap that even if they do

735
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 1: just get ten twelve carries, they're almost certainly still going

736
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 1: to hit value. I mean, they don't even need a

737
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 1: touchdown to do that if they just get you one

738
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 1: carry over fifteen yards, just because they're that cheap. I mean,

739
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 1: they're forty eight hundred dollars for Michael in fifty four

740
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 1: hundred for Ware. I mean running backs top in running backs,

741
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: we're talking about nine thousand dollars almost well, And honestly,

742
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: the way we study this is and I've mentioned this

743
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 1: coefficient of variation before, but the way you running backs

744
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 1: are sort of like quarterbacks. They are very, very predictable,

745
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 1: and if you can predict their touches within a reasonable rate,

746
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 1: you will kind of just know what they're going to do.

747
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 1: And the case for them is when you spend down

748
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 1: for those two guys, so wide receivers along the whole

749
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 1: wide receiver spectrum do not exist in that same level

750
00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 1: of safety except the guys at the very top like

751
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: Joe Brown, Hopkins to some degree Beckham but not as much.

752
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 1: But that group of guys are as safe as running backs.

753
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 1: And so if you can get safety on the lower

754
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 1: end of the chain to pay up for the extreme

755
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: wide receiver safety, then you're right, it is totally worth

756
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 1: it to do because they don't. Those guys, those or

757
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 1: so running backs don't need to do much to hit value.

758
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 1: And that's exactly what our optimizers saying to do this

759
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,720
Speaker 1: week is go with those those real high wide receivers

760
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 1: on the list and then go down with Spencer wear In,

761
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:31,720
Speaker 1: D'Angelo Williams, Dak Prescott's in there, and it makes sense

762
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 1: to me, It definitely makes sense to me. Let's talk

763
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 1: about a couple other backs, though, you know, because someone

764
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 1: is going to explode and maybe get one hundred and

765
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 1: fifty yards or three touchdowns. Who were the couple backs

766
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 1: that have that kind of upside this week? I mean

767
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 1: in terms of like upside. Those the guys that have

768
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 1: that upside are the guys like Girly and Peterson that

769
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 1: you know, the teams are just planning on handing them

770
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 1: the ball a ton because they've just historically done that,

771
00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:59,400
Speaker 1: and why would they change now, Like why would the

772
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 1: Rams or or the Vikings change now? Really? But you

773
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 1: know they're expensive, and so this is why, Actually I

774
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: don't even mind those two guys as tournament plays because

775
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 1: everyone's going to beyond the guys we just mentioned, and

776
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 1: Girly and Peterson are just like those transcendent talent types.

777
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 1: But no one we're not called talking about them as

778
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 1: much this week because their prices are so high and

779
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: you know why bother paying up for them in cash games,

780
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 1: but in tournaments I can really see. Look, it's not

781
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 1: like great analysis to just pick the two best running

782
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 1: backs and call them like the guys with the highest

783
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 1: up sign. So I understand that, but but but I

784
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 1: think it is it does worth the mention here because

785
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 1: it weren't to mention because no one else is really

786
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: talking about them. And so if you thought that Peterson

787
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: or Girley was going to get handed the ball twenty

788
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 1: plus times this week, which they probably will, and you

789
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 1: also think that everyone's going to spend their time with

790
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 1: the Where's Michael's, D'Angel Williams of the world, then I

791
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 1: actually think there's there's tournament value in those guys, just

792
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 1: because I don't just I don't hear the industry talking

793
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 1: about David Johnson too. You just don't hear the industry

794
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 1: talking about these guys as much because we have these

795
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,879
Speaker 1: other great value plays. I'm afraid to Dave Johnson this week.

796
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 1: Two guys that I'm not really afraid of, though, I

797
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 1: think I'm looking at their price points. Ryan Matthews sixty

798
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 1: one hundred, LA Garrett Blount six thousand. I mean, both

799
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 1: those guys in their matchups, they could explode. Cleveland's defensive

800
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: front seven is just kind of a train wreck. And

801
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 1: Philly's gonna be up big the whole game. We've seen

802
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 1: his athletic profile. If he's healthy, he can put up

803
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 1: big numbers. And then you know Patriots running backs every

804
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 1: once in a while, they're going to go off for

805
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 1: huge games. So we've seen Blunt and do it from

806
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:31,879
Speaker 1: time to time, And what do you think about those

807
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 1: two guys at at those price points? Those guys aren't

808
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: as guys I'm on as much. I'm not totally convinced

809
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 1: that the Eagles are playing ahead this whole time. It

810
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 1: was would be my only concern with the Eagles. Like

811
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 1: the Wednes thing is such a question mark for me

812
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 1: that it like I like, I like Matthews as an

813
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 1: independent talent, and I would like him a lot more

814
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 1: if Bradford was still there. I actually would just even

815
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 1: like I'm probably a Chase Daniel was a quarterback more.

816
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 1: But um, the Wens thing is what calls that, it's

817
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 1: really just the Wentz. It's actually the quarterback thing in general.

818
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:01,279
Speaker 1: Like the Garoppolo and Wens thing, I just not totally positive. Um,

819
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 1: those aren't guys that I've really targeted as much. I

820
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:05,759
Speaker 1: will say, you know, we have a chat room up

821
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:07,439
Speaker 1: in the sites, so we're answering questions all the time,

822
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 1: and one person people will always say, is so and

823
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,360
Speaker 1: so a good GVP play, And I'm like, yeah, because

824
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 1: just kind of anybody is honestly, I know that's like

825
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 1: a totally cop out of answer. But um, except you

826
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 1: can do well, right, Okay, exactly some guys are totally terrible, right.

827
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 1: But but if you think there's a case to be had,

828
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 1: or like there's a game script that that that goes

829
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,959
Speaker 1: in a direction, and you can just make the case

830
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 1: for anybody, and those are great cases for those guys.

831
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 1: I'm not on it as much because I'm just not

832
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 1: totally convinced that the game scripts work out for them.

833
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 1: But this is how you also win GPPs by just

834
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 1: doing like sort of zigging when people are zagging, and

835
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,919
Speaker 1: that in that price, in that price tier, Latavious Murray

836
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:45,800
Speaker 1: kind of falls in for me. Sixty six hundred on

837
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 1: FanDuel Um. I think you know that he was one

838
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 1: of the few kind of bell Cowie of running backs

839
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 1: from last year. I don't think that's going to change

840
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 1: too much. Early in the season for the Raiders. The

841
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 1: game should be pretty fast moving. He's pretty cheap. If

842
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 1: he can get even a little bit into the passing

843
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: game there, then I think he has pretty big upside

844
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:05,720
Speaker 1: for his price. So I'd probably go and I'd probably

845
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 1: go with Murray in that in that in that price here,

846
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 1: all right, let's move over to wide receivers, who are

847
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 1: the top two elite plays? This week you talked about

848
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 1: those wide receivers that at the top are always safe.

849
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 1: I mean, we know Julio Jones is the top leading

850
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 1: UH receiver and yards per game in NFL history. Now

851
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 1: Aldell Beckham Junior doesn't doesn't qualify for that, but he

852
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: has over one hundred yards per game in his career.

853
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 1: But you said he's not super safe. Is that? Uh?

854
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: Does he just have some bad games every once in

855
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 1: a while or what's the deal? Who that? Were you

856
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 1: asking about Beckham or Jones? There? Beckham? Oh? Beckham? Okay, Um,

857
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 1: it's yeah. Beckham just doesn't have the same amount of

858
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 1: targets that I want to see, um from from that

859
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 1: tier of wide receiver, he has the upside of anybody,

860
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 1: So he's great. Don't get me wrong. Talent wise, he

861
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 1: is just as good as the other may be better.

862
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,439
Speaker 1: I mean, but um, Julio Jones is just he gets

863
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 1: so many targets. Um, Like, he was top target guy

864
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,359
Speaker 1: last year kind of by a lot. And and there's

865
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 1: just the number one correlated piece of fantasy success is

866
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 1: being thrown the ball as a wide receiver and when

867
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 1: you can pretty much lock and load the Jones thing,

868
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,919
Speaker 1: you should do it. Beckham, to me, doesn't have He's

869
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 1: just on that next tier below in terms of MS,

870
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 1: in terms of the targets, and that's the only thing

871
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 1: that I that I worry about with him a little bit.

872
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:22,959
Speaker 1: He he didn't have a ton of success against Dallas

873
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 1: last year. I think he only had twelve total targets

874
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 1: in the two games that they played. I mean, year

875
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 1: over year stuff is not always the best to look

876
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 1: at because the sample size is so small you simply

877
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 1: don't know what happened in that game. That would be

878
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 1: the only concern with me that he just isn't going

879
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 1: to see Like he's not a favorite to me to

880
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 1: see fourteen targets let's say on the high end of

881
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:42,399
Speaker 1: his on the high end of the spectrum, and that's

882
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 1: where that's where I would call him, like not the

883
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: most consistent guy. I'll say this my top four guys

884
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 1: that I've ranked this week, Odell Beckham just because it's

885
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 1: Week one at Dallas. It's a big rivalry game, and

886
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:58,359
Speaker 1: I just feel like Beckham shines in the spotlight. I mean,

887
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:00,400
Speaker 1: we saw what he didn't that Monday night game, and

888
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 1: that's just who Beckham is. So I Beckham number one,

889
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,959
Speaker 1: Julio Jones, as we already talked about, Alan Robinson faced

890
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 1: Green Bay, they're gonna be chucking the ball all over

891
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 1: the field to keep up. And then Brandon Cooks just

892
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 1: because that New Orleans game, we know they're gonna put

893
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 1: up a bunch of points against Oakland. Drew Brees is

894
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: going to pass the ball to a lot of people,

895
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 1: but Cooks is going to see a ton of those targets, right, Yeah, No,

896
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:22,319
Speaker 1: I think so Cooks. I think Cooks is a guy

897
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:24,720
Speaker 1: he has He's one of those like Shorty. It's funny

898
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 1: he's in that Beckham thing in the terms that they

899
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 1: have so much upside. They're not in the same talentier,

900
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 1: but they have They do the most with not as

901
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 1: many targets. Does that that makes sense because they are

902
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,720
Speaker 1: just so electric, like they don't need to see they

903
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 1: don't need to see as much volume to get it done,

904
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 1: as opposed to like maybe a guy that's a little

905
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 1: more underneath you, a kind of wide receiver. So I

906
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 1: like all those guys. The game for Cooks really could be.

907
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 1: I mean that has by far the highest implied total

908
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 1: and rightfully so neither of those teams. Two teams can

909
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 1: really play much in the way of defense. I love

910
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 1: that Robinson was another one of those target monsters last year.

911
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 1: I like the idea where you're playing from behind. We

912
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 1: rand some studies about teams like that, we're supposed to

913
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 1: be playing from behind. It didn't correlate as much as

914
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 1: I thought it would. But I'm really on all those

915
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 1: guys and the way we had a ranked. We have

916
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 1: a Jones one, Brown two, Beckham three, and then Hopkins four.

917
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 1: And I actually think Hopkins is interesting this week because

918
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 1: he's just a priced tier almost just a little bit

919
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:22,359
Speaker 1: below those next three guys with the same and sort

920
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 1: of implied targets. So I'm not sure how much people

921
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 1: are gonna be on him this week, But that's a

922
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 1: guy that I could That's a guy I would have

923
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 1: no problem running out in cash games as far as

924
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 1: I'm concerned. Hopkins is really on his own tier. You've

925
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 1: got those top three guys Beckham, Jones, and Antonio Brown

926
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 1: as your first tier obviously, and then Hopkins. He's just

927
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 1: kind of tier two all by himself. I mean, you

928
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:44,439
Speaker 1: could make an argument for aj Green, but he really

929
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 1: just had one great game last year and was pretty

930
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 1: good the rest of the time. I mean, he was

931
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 1: about write in line with Demarius Thomas besides that one

932
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 1: great game. So DeAndre Hopkins, that's a great call, especially

933
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 1: against that horrible Chicago Bears secondary. They brutal. I'm just worried.

934
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 1: I'm just worried it's gonna get ugly in a hurry,

935
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:04,279
Speaker 1: and Hopkins isn't going to see that many targets. Yeah,

936
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 1: that's a concern. And that's where well, I actually and

937
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:07,839
Speaker 1: one guy we kind of skipped over, but I've mentioned

938
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 1: them before. It was like I love Lamar like I

939
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 1: love pairing Lamar Miller and Hopkins together in cash games

940
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 1: because I think that when you can get two guys

941
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 1: that stand to see a vast majority of a team's

942
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 1: volume in a game that they're supposed to win and

943
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 1: figuring the points will come from somewhere, then that percentage

944
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:28,719
Speaker 1: that you're getting from those two guys is seems to

945
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 1: be more safe than if you're wondering about you know,

946
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 1: like that's where I wouldn't like be as competent, and

947
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 1: that like Cooks gets the same kind of the same

948
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 1: kind of love in the New Orleans game because they

949
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:40,880
Speaker 1: just have a couple other guys out there, so like,

950
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 1: you know, grabbing Miller and Hopkins, paying them together in

951
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 1: cash games. I think that that you have a pretty

952
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 1: high floor going to do something like that. That's a

953
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 1: great idea. I like that one a lot, especially since

954
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 1: we just heard that Will Fuller's got some hammy issues.

955
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:52,879
Speaker 1: They're not even sure if he's gonna play at this point.

956
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,879
Speaker 1: He's good and he's going to be very very good.

957
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:58,839
Speaker 1: But we just know what I know. It's a new

958
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 1: quarterback for Houston, but it's at the worst, it's a

959
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,879
Speaker 1: lateral move and at the best it's an upgrade for them.

960
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 1: So um, and we just know how they plan to use.

961
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 1: Like they're Houston's pretty pretty on the surface about what

962
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 1: they plan to do. They want to take their RB

963
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 1: one and run him a lot, and then they want

964
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:16,719
Speaker 1: to target Hopkins like that's just their game plan and

965
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:18,799
Speaker 1: it's smart because those two guys, that's like just the

966
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 1: way they're going to win. Who are a couple of

967
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 1: mid range guys that are on your radar this week?

968
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:24,799
Speaker 1: Doug one guy that I think our systems really high

969
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: on and I don't and I don't believe a lot

970
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 1: of other people are going to be as Doug Baldwin

971
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 1: and yeah, oh really good. Wow. I thought this is

972
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 1: one that we've heard from users kind of like Doug

973
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 1: Baldwin question mark, exclamation point, and I get it. It's

974
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 1: it's funny about him. It's funny about how sort of

975
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,719
Speaker 1: the narratives can shift. Baldwin was a guy I hated

976
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 1: last year because he was a guy that was heavily

977
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 1: started because he just kept turning every catch into a

978
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:55,720
Speaker 1: touchdown and that's completely unsustainable over the course of the season,

979
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:58,680
Speaker 1: and like he was just putting up just totally crazy

980
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 1: touchdowns to target receptions in yards so that that's attainable. Well, right,

981
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:05,960
Speaker 1: what what The trend that was good for him though,

982
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 1: was that the season went on, his targets were trending upward,

983
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 1: and so he They just don't really have much in

984
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 1: the way of other guys to throw to. I mean,

985
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 1: Jimmy Graham probably is going to play, but not positive.

986
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 1: They're all the rest of their wide receiver corps is

987
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 1: average to probably below. Baldwin is a guy that Wilson

988
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 1: has shown that he'll throw to, and he's just cheap enough,

989
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:27,320
Speaker 1: like the touchdown piece isn't even built into our projections really,

990
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 1: and because I typically find that to be somewhat difficult

991
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 1: to predict based on unless you just know total red

992
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 1: zone opportunities. But Baldwin's a guy I love, and I

993
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 1: just do not think that other people are going to

994
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 1: be on him. So like pairing a Wilson Baldwin and

995
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 1: then whichever if you think Michael was going to be

996
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:47,279
Speaker 1: their back like that to me is a fantastic a

997
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 1: cash game strategy. Also because the floor on that trio

998
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 1: is also really really high, because that should be a

999
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:55,400
Speaker 1: majority of what they do on offense. How do you

1000
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:58,359
Speaker 1: feel about Jeremy Macklin. He's going up against San Diego, which,

1001
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 1: as we know, is not a very good past defense,

1002
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 1: and he's the only guy on that team. I mean,

1003
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 1: who else is alexmi is going to pass the ball too?

1004
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 1: I played in one season long league. I really don't

1005
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:09,720
Speaker 1: two season longs that he was a guy I drafted

1006
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 1: for that reason because he was he seemed to be

1007
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: really what all you ever want to do? There's no

1008
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 1: real secret in DFS stuff like this, except like who's

1009
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:19,319
Speaker 1: going to get the ball? Like I know people, people

1010
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:21,239
Speaker 1: spend a lot of time trying to figure out like

1011
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 1: the secret of opportunity. Really, all predictive stuff comes down

1012
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:27,359
Speaker 1: the opportunity. And Macklin is a guy that the Chiefs

1013
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 1: have shown that they will throw too. They don't really

1014
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 1: have you know, Kelsey, I guess, but they don't really

1015
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 1: have much in the way of other options that his

1016
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 1: only issue is they just don't throw the ball a ton,

1017
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 1: but his price. I like him as a value. I

1018
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 1: like all any guy that is that stands to be

1019
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:42,799
Speaker 1: the top target guy on a team is to me

1020
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 1: a guy that you probably want to get, that you

1021
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 1: want to get your hands on in some kind of

1022
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,880
Speaker 1: value play. Now, how about a cheap wide receiver. We

1023
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 1: talked about some cheap running backs, and we talked about

1024
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott. But if you need to save money at

1025
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 1: wide receiver, who are you looking at? On Fan Duel?

1026
00:45:57,120 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 1: I don't think you The guys I mentioned, actually, I

1027
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 1: think are just values because like I said, the prices are.

1028
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 1: The pricing is so is closer that even paying down

1029
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 1: a little bit for a guy like Baldwin or you know,

1030
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 1: I guess Amari Cooper falls into that range too, where

1031
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 1: you're just paying a little bit less for than the

1032
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 1: top tier wide receivers, allows you to spend up on

1033
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:15,359
Speaker 1: draft kings. It's a little bit of a thing. It's

1034
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:18,400
Speaker 1: it's different on draft kings where the pricing is has

1035
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 1: such a wide range, which we've mentioned sort of at

1036
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:24,280
Speaker 1: the top, that there are there are pretty extreme value

1037
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 1: guys out there. Um one is a kind of a

1038
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 1: chalk play. I think at this point he's been he's

1039
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 1: been so talked up in the preseason as Marvin Jones.

1040
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 1: He's only forty eight hundred on draft Kings. That's a

1041
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:36,839
Speaker 1: really good price. If you think he's the wide receiver one. Actually, really,

1042
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 1: if you think he's wide receiver one a behind tape,

1043
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:42,399
Speaker 1: which a lot of signs point that he is, he's

1044
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:45,000
Speaker 1: still going to be a pretty chalky play. I don't

1045
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 1: think if you're if you're if you've been doing DFS

1046
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 1: or reading about stuff, Jones is not a new guy.

1047
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:52,799
Speaker 1: That's that's coming up into the conversation. But and I

1048
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 1: think it's warranted right now in our optimal lineups. He's

1049
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:57,360
Speaker 1: showing up there a guy I really like now and

1050
00:46:57,520 --> 00:46:59,279
Speaker 1: is sort of for the same reason that you mentioned Cookes.

1051
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 1: I really like, really sneed he is a guy who's

1052
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 1: when he started last year, So his targets don't look

1053
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:07,239
Speaker 1: at that impressive when you look at a season for

1054
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 1: the season, and I actually don't even look that impressive

1055
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 1: if you just look at his game log, but if

1056
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 1: you look at just games he started, he averaged in

1057
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 1: the eight to eight and a half targets per game range.

1058
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 1: And for him, like, if you thought a lot of

1059
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 1: people were going to play Jones, I would be fine

1060
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 1: pivoting to the sneed sort of at the same price

1061
00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 1: on DraftKings, because they again, the Saints have shown what

1062
00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 1: they're going what they plan to do with him when

1063
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:30,919
Speaker 1: he starts, and he's going to start, and I really

1064
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 1: like the player. I just like kind of playing both

1065
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:34,480
Speaker 1: of those guys. So those are some of the cheaper

1066
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 1: you know, they're not cheap, cheap, free punk play kind

1067
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 1: of guys. But in that sub five thousand range, those

1068
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 1: are those are a couple of ones that are jumping

1069
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 1: out to me. Yeah, and the Saints are going to

1070
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 1: start three and four wide receiver sets a lot of plays.

1071
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:49,239
Speaker 1: So what do you think about Michael Thomas. He's under

1072
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:51,839
Speaker 1: five thousand as well, and he's just been fantastic yeah,

1073
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 1: he's another one. And this is where I it's the

1074
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 1: difference between like cash game and tournament game strategy. Right,

1075
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 1: So for cash games, I'm totally fine with sne because

1076
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:03,279
Speaker 1: we've just seen again what the scenes will do when

1077
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 1: he's on the field. Again, all those guys are in

1078
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 1: play because they it could turn into you know, three catches,

1079
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 1: one hundred yards and a touchdown for a guy like

1080
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 1: Thomas easily. I just don't think it's likely that it happens.

1081
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 1: And but this is where if you want to take

1082
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 1: a tourment a tournament stab at a guy, I think

1083
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 1: you're more than happy getting in his price. A guy

1084
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 1: like that too, is like Taj Sharp. He's only three

1085
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:29,239
Speaker 1: thousand for the Titans. He looks like he's sort of

1086
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:32,000
Speaker 1: the last man standing in terms of their wide receivers

1087
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:34,839
Speaker 1: going into the season. They don't throw a ton, which

1088
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 1: is the only reason that probably he's not Like if

1089
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 1: he was almost on any other team in this situation,

1090
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 1: it would be almost a definite play at his price.

1091
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 1: You're just not convinced that the Titans are incentivized to

1092
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:46,920
Speaker 1: throw enough that he sees enough targets to hit it.

1093
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 1: But if three thousand him Richard Matthews, A couple of

1094
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 1: those guys that the Titans have to throw somebody, so

1095
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:56,200
Speaker 1: I don't mind grabbing them a little cheaper. Now, who's

1096
00:48:56,200 --> 00:48:58,359
Speaker 1: the best lottery ticket? Someone who could just bounce off

1097
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:00,440
Speaker 1: the page and get two or three touchdown even though

1098
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 1: they're you know, not super high owned, like Percy Harvey

1099
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 1: wasn't Percy Harvin was a couple of years ago where

1100
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:07,799
Speaker 1: you know, he was never really that high owned, but

1101
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:09,479
Speaker 1: every once in a while he would just go off.

1102
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:11,920
Speaker 1: You know, a guy like that that I really liked

1103
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 1: this week again a lottery ticket and well, okay, so

1104
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 1: there's two different I think the lower end lottery tickets

1105
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 1: are the two guys I mentioned from the Titans, because

1106
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:21,799
Speaker 1: they're so cheap, they have to do so little and

1107
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:23,279
Speaker 1: you can do so much else with them that if

1108
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:25,400
Speaker 1: they actually did, like if it turned out that Sharpe

1109
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,959
Speaker 1: was just going to be an eight target nine target guy,

1110
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 1: then that is your lottery ticket. You you just can't you'll,

1111
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:35,799
Speaker 1: you'll he'll never be that low again if if if

1112
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 1: he turns into like a game like that. But a

1113
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 1: guy on the higher end of the scale that I

1114
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,839
Speaker 1: don't mind is Keenan Allen coming back. He was such

1115
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 1: a target monster when he before he got hurt. And

1116
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 1: he's another guy that I just don't think people are

1117
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 1: paying much attention to because why bother like is against

1118
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, and um, it's just not a great matchup.

1119
00:49:52,040 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 1: But that guy was getting a ton of looks before

1120
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:55,920
Speaker 1: he got hurt. So I think it's not unlessary a

1121
00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 1: lottery ticket in the sense that you know, I'll pay

1122
00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:00,839
Speaker 1: a dollar to win a million, but it he does

1123
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 1: have some stuff that points in the direction that he

1124
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:03,719
Speaker 1: could see a lot of that he could see a

1125
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:05,800
Speaker 1: lot of looks. Now. I talked about this guy in

1126
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 1: the last show, but for those of you who aren't listening,

1127
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:12,359
Speaker 1: I'm really high on Mark's Lee for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yes,

1128
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 1: he's the number three right now behind Alan Robinson and

1129
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:16,759
Speaker 1: Alan Hearns. But again, they're gonna air it out in

1130
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:18,799
Speaker 1: that game. They're gonna have three wide receiver sets going

1131
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 1: a lot of the time. And if you watch this

1132
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 1: guy playing preseason or in college, he is a superb talent.

1133
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 1: He is so talented. I think that if he can

1134
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:29,719
Speaker 1: stay healthy, he's gonna end up passing up Herns. He's

1135
00:50:29,719 --> 00:50:31,840
Speaker 1: just gonna steal that job. He's so good. Do you

1136
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 1: think that he has a shot to really break out

1137
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 1: this week? Or is he's not gonna get enough snaps?

1138
00:50:35,640 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 1: The only thing I yeah, I just I worry about

1139
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:39,120
Speaker 1: because they have a couple of those other guys that

1140
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:40,759
Speaker 1: they've thrown too so much. But this is where and

1141
00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 1: I hate to sound like a broken record in terms

1142
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 1: of just who's a good player and who's not. And

1143
00:50:45,160 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 1: in this three thousand range, it's all speculative, right like

1144
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:50,120
Speaker 1: it's it's we're just kind of taking guesses on everything.

1145
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 1: And he's not a guy who thought too much about

1146
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 1: But the reasoning seems sound, especially if you consider the

1147
00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 1: Jacksonville is playing from behind the decent amount of this game,

1148
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:00,400
Speaker 1: which stands the reason they will And I like it.

1149
00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:03,320
Speaker 1: This is where, this is where this like three thousand,

1150
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 1: This is why it's a lottery ticket, right Like, if

1151
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:09,279
Speaker 1: you don't need, you don't need, You only need it

1152
00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:12,720
Speaker 1: to happen once. And at three thousand or thirty one hundred,

1153
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 1: which is where Lee is, you really just need to

1154
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:17,080
Speaker 1: happen once. And actually, if you're if you're a multi

1155
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:19,920
Speaker 1: entry kind of person and you find yourself in a

1156
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:22,440
Speaker 1: situation where you have maybe five lineups and one of

1157
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 1: them has let's say sharp in it or lea, just

1158
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:28,600
Speaker 1: even swapping to that other guy because you if you

1159
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 1: like all the other pieces around it, and those are

1160
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 1: sort of those are like the standard deviate, the high deviation.

1161
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 1: Guys like they'll do a lot or nothing, then that's

1162
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:40,080
Speaker 1: a good place to make that one little difference in

1163
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:42,759
Speaker 1: your lineup so that you have the chance at the

1164
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:44,840
Speaker 1: extream upside if you can, if you can tolerate that

1165
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:46,320
Speaker 1: kind of risk, And you need to be able tolerate

1166
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 1: a lot of risk with guys like that, because you

1167
00:51:48,160 --> 00:51:51,440
Speaker 1: just need to not get mad when they don't do anything. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

1168
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 1: of course, let's move over to tight end. We'll wrap

1169
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:56,719
Speaker 1: up the show after this. Is it a must play

1170
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 1: to go Gronk or Read here? Oh No, I don't

1171
00:51:59,200 --> 00:52:03,400
Speaker 1: think so, especially not Grounkum. He's two. That's again like

1172
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 1: new quarterback. He's a little dinged up. He's very expensive.

1173
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 1: I would much right if I'm going to allocate salary

1174
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:12,840
Speaker 1: in that range, I'm definitely going toward those wide receivers.

1175
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 1: Read is a little closer. He is not that much

1176
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:20,920
Speaker 1: more expensive, Like he's He's clearly less than Gronk on Fandel,

1177
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:24,400
Speaker 1: but he doesn't totally break the bank on you in

1178
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 1: terms of seventy really getting up there. I personally am

1179
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:29,680
Speaker 1: not playing either of those guys this week. I don't

1180
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:34,560
Speaker 1: think man Read. I'm more worried about not playing Read

1181
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:36,520
Speaker 1: than I am about not playing Gronk, if that makes sense.

1182
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:38,839
Speaker 1: Like I'm not really worried about not playing rock at all,

1183
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:42,080
Speaker 1: but Read. We do have Read projected for the most

1184
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 1: overall points from tight end. It's just not enough. It's

1185
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:48,439
Speaker 1: not enough more than who we have like a tier

1186
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 1: below him that that sneaks into lineups right now for us.

1187
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 1: But he's the guy that I'm more worried about the two.

1188
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 1: He would be the guy that I would say that

1189
00:52:57,640 --> 00:52:59,360
Speaker 1: could be the guy that we probably made a mistake on.

1190
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 1: I'm starting Kobe Fleaner. I'm not even thinking twice about

1191
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 1: starting Kobe Fleaner. Oakland can't defend the tight end. We

1192
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 1: saw Crockett Gilmore just tear them up last year, and

1193
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:12,480
Speaker 1: that was almost every week with Oakland. They cannot defend

1194
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:14,800
Speaker 1: the tight end. It's not going to change this season,

1195
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:17,480
Speaker 1: and Kobe Fleaner is gonna get he's going to get

1196
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 1: the ball in New Orleans and we know that he

1197
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 1: can play some ball. He's gonna have a nice week. Yeah,

1198
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:24,279
Speaker 1: and we know we know Breeze will throw to the

1199
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 1: tight end and there is a lot of safety and

1200
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:28,880
Speaker 1: a guy like him, I think he actually ends up

1201
00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 1: becoming a pretty popular star, considering he's in the lower

1202
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:35,000
Speaker 1: end of things, guys like our system really likes Barry Barnage,

1203
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:37,640
Speaker 1: who another he kind of fits that Doug Baldwin of

1204
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:40,960
Speaker 1: I think people are questioning why we're so high on Barnage,

1205
00:53:41,040 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 1: and he's a guy we've looked at a lot Barners

1206
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:46,640
Speaker 1: last year. I know it's a new quarterback who's less accurately.

1207
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 1: Griffin is less accurate than McCown Wills. The McCown was

1208
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:51,280
Speaker 1: actually surprisingly accurate for the Browns last year, and Griffin

1209
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:53,719
Speaker 1: doesn't have that same kind of makeup in terms of accuracy,

1210
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 1: but Barnage was. I'm pretty sure without looking up right away,

1211
00:53:57,200 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure Barners was the second highest red zone

1212
00:53:59,680 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 1: target player in the NFL, not tight end player. And

1213
00:54:02,719 --> 00:54:07,120
Speaker 1: so if you the simplest, the best way obviously the

1214
00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 1: score points in DFS is the score touchdowns and the

1215
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 1: best correlation between scoring touchdowns is getting the ball when

1216
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 1: you're close to the end zone right, like not to

1217
00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 1: be directed or whatever or like like teach you or wheter.

1218
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:18,799
Speaker 1: I understand that's like an easy concept. But if you're

1219
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:20,919
Speaker 1: just going to be a guy that your team wants

1220
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 1: to get you the ball near the end zone, you're

1221
00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:25,840
Speaker 1: just going to score more points. And Barnage was a

1222
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:27,839
Speaker 1: guy like I couldn't believe how many times he got

1223
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 1: looked at in the red zone. And I don't think

1224
00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:32,120
Speaker 1: the Browns now they need to get there, Like all

1225
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:34,480
Speaker 1: the red zone targets for the worst team in the

1226
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:37,160
Speaker 1: league doesn't mean anything, right, so they need to get

1227
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:40,040
Speaker 1: down to the red zone. But he I think season

1228
00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:41,799
Speaker 1: enough targets to sort of pay off his price. And

1229
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:44,280
Speaker 1: I don't think many people will be on him because again,

1230
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 1: guys like Fleaner, guys like Dwayne Allen, they're a little speculum,

1231
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 1: but they're also good plays, and I think people trying

1232
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:51,360
Speaker 1: to trend that direction or they end up spending up

1233
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:52,640
Speaker 1: a little bit more for red So I think he

1234
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 1: ends up being in that middle category for me, and

1235
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:56,240
Speaker 1: I like it because I think we get some separation

1236
00:54:56,320 --> 00:54:59,280
Speaker 1: there all right, and Doug finally, if you're going GPP

1237
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 1: for tight end and who's someone that has two touchdown

1238
00:55:02,239 --> 00:55:03,919
Speaker 1: upside that a lot of people aren't thinking about. Yeah,

1239
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 1: I mentioned him a second ago. I probably like a

1240
00:55:05,520 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 1: guy like Dayne Allen if you think that, If you

1241
00:55:08,760 --> 00:55:11,839
Speaker 1: think that luck either Bold uses him as a sort

1242
00:55:11,840 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 1: of default outlet because he has no like their offensive

1243
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:17,120
Speaker 1: line is still not good and he's just gonna need

1244
00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:19,719
Speaker 1: to throw the ball somewhere. If you think that, that

1245
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:21,760
Speaker 1: is where they end up trending sort of like underneath

1246
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:23,919
Speaker 1: passes or they start looking to me in the end zone.

1247
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:27,680
Speaker 1: I think Alan strikes me as that guy that you

1248
00:55:27,719 --> 00:55:29,880
Speaker 1: could hit some pretty high upside on it based on it,

1249
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:32,440
Speaker 1: but we're just not sure about it right now. I did,

1250
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:34,560
Speaker 1: by the way, I did like zach Ertz for that before,

1251
00:55:34,600 --> 00:55:38,120
Speaker 1: but that was before the trade, so I was it

1252
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:40,360
Speaker 1: was that was the unfortunate piece of that. But I

1253
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 1: would say a guy like dayne On, I probably would

1254
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:44,960
Speaker 1: have said Fleaner actually too um just but not you

1255
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 1: kind of you made the perfect case for Fleaner. So

1256
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:49,520
Speaker 1: but those two guys sort of exist in that category

1257
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:52,480
Speaker 1: where it wouldn't shock me for them to get some

1258
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:55,040
Speaker 1: some nice red zone looks, especially considering some of the

1259
00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:57,719
Speaker 1: other receivers on the team aren't necessarily red zone big

1260
00:55:57,760 --> 00:56:02,239
Speaker 1: target guys. The thing about arts rookie quarterbacks love their

1261
00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:07,360
Speaker 1: tight ends. They just so's he's intriguing to me. But

1262
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:09,000
Speaker 1: I'm not starting him, but just because I believe in

1263
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:11,600
Speaker 1: Flaner that much. And my big guy mentioned him last

1264
00:56:11,640 --> 00:56:14,879
Speaker 1: show is Jordan Matthews. And we know Jordan Matthews has

1265
00:56:14,920 --> 00:56:17,040
Speaker 1: not been great since he had all those concussions. But

1266
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:19,799
Speaker 1: Seattle can't defend the tight end. And Jordan Cameron's sitting

1267
00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:22,800
Speaker 1: down there at five thousand. I mean, you've got Jacob Tammy,

1268
00:56:22,840 --> 00:56:26,040
Speaker 1: who's more expensive than him. Will Tie is more expensive

1269
00:56:26,040 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 1: than Jordan Cameron. He's going up against one of the

1270
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:30,319
Speaker 1: worst teams against tight ends. They're gonna be playing from

1271
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:33,160
Speaker 1: behind and chucking the ball. I really don't believe in

1272
00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:35,880
Speaker 1: anyone there except for Jarvis Landry, So I think Cameron's

1273
00:56:35,920 --> 00:56:38,360
Speaker 1: gonna get some targets and Halson passes in well, it

1274
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:40,560
Speaker 1: makes sense too for Cameron, right, Like, Seattle doesn't look

1275
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 1: as good on paper against the tight ends because you

1276
00:56:42,719 --> 00:56:44,520
Speaker 1: just can't throw to the wide receivers when you play

1277
00:56:44,600 --> 00:56:48,520
Speaker 1: them right, you just can't. Like, those guys are so

1278
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:50,719
Speaker 1: blanketed that you really just can't even look their way,

1279
00:56:50,760 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 1: and so you drop back and you have to pass

1280
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:55,839
Speaker 1: to somebody, and they're just it stands the reason they're

1281
00:56:55,840 --> 00:56:57,359
Speaker 1: going to be worse. I like that. I like that call,

1282
00:56:57,440 --> 00:56:59,600
Speaker 1: especially if you think that guys like Sherman lock up

1283
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:02,120
Speaker 1: everything on the outside. So yeah, yeah, no, I like that.

1284
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:03,959
Speaker 1: I'm actually wondering if we're a little low on Cameron.

1285
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:05,600
Speaker 1: I'm looking up while you said his name, I kind

1286
00:57:05,640 --> 00:57:07,799
Speaker 1: of typed from metow projection system. And I always this

1287
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:09,359
Speaker 1: is why it's always good to talk to unt. I'll

1288
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:11,160
Speaker 1: talk to as many people as possible about this stuff

1289
00:57:11,200 --> 00:57:13,919
Speaker 1: because you think you've done all your due diligence on something,

1290
00:57:13,920 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 1: and then someone mentioned somebody to say, you know, I'm

1291
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:17,320
Speaker 1: gonna take a closer look on this guy, and that

1292
00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:19,320
Speaker 1: Cameron's a guy that as soon as we get off this,

1293
00:57:19,360 --> 00:57:20,840
Speaker 1: I'm going to actually go look and make sure we're

1294
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:23,280
Speaker 1: correct on his projection. That's awesome. Yeah, it's funny you

1295
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 1: say that, because I've been changing my rankings as we've

1296
00:57:25,200 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 1: been talking, just based on a couple of things you're saying.

1297
00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 1: It's great to have the podcast because I learned so

1298
00:57:30,480 --> 00:57:32,560
Speaker 1: much from all the people that come on. And once

1299
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:34,280
Speaker 1: again that was the case. It was a pleasure talking

1300
00:57:34,320 --> 00:57:36,240
Speaker 1: to you, Doug, and thank you for coming on. Yeah,

1301
00:57:36,280 --> 00:57:37,960
Speaker 1: thanks so much for having me. I really appreciate it,

1302
00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 1: and good luck. Week one sounds great, you two. All right, guys,

1303
00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:45,280
Speaker 1: it's time football starts in two days. I mean, I

1304
00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:47,520
Speaker 1: guess it's already started, but you know, Thursday night it's

1305
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:50,919
Speaker 1: not the real thing. So here we go into week one.

1306
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:53,480
Speaker 1: I hope you guys enjoy your football. Thank you for listening.

1307
00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:56,600
Speaker 1: If you haven't already, please subscribe on iTunes and leave

1308
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:59,200
Speaker 1: us a rating, a review. Seriously, it helps so much.

1309
00:57:59,240 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 1: Every single person that leaves us a review. I read it,

1310
00:58:02,200 --> 00:58:04,480
Speaker 1: and I'm very thankful every time I read it, even

1311
00:58:04,520 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 1: if it's you know, constructive feedback, because we need to

1312
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 1: learn what we can do better and we appreciate all

1313
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:12,240
Speaker 1: the input we can get. So thanks for listening and

1314
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 1: enjoy your football. I just wanted you to watch me.

1315
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:28,080
Speaker 1: I don't even know how the can the stream works.