1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,439 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. We are looking at 7 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: this market. Continue to sell off here. But I want 8 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: to get back to the jobs data again. I think 9 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: it was pretty good. I'm sticking with it was pretty good, 10 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: and maybe even better than pretty good. But let's talk 11 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: to somebody who does this stuff for living. Julia Pollock, 12 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: Chief economists for Zip Recruiter. Julia A give us your 13 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 1: take on the job's number today and then be maybe 14 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: even more importantly what you're seeing in your business as 15 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 1: Zip recruiter. This was a most encouraging report, like the 16 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 1: Goldilocks of jobs reports, just great broad games, huge games. 17 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: I mean the twelve months average job game now the 18 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 1: net growth and jobs each months and five D forty 19 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: five thousands that is huge. Is three times the average 20 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,759 Speaker 1: job beating twenty and twenty nineteen. So big, big, big numbers. 21 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: Broad growth across the economy and then exactly what the 22 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: FED wants to see, you know, the boil coming off 23 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 1: wage growth, a little bit slight cooling there. Yeah, I 24 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,199 Speaker 1: was gonna ask, where does this put us on sort 25 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: of the soft landing narrative when it comes to the 26 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 1: economy and the Fed. So in twenty nineteen, we saw 27 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:31,759 Speaker 1: that we could get rapid wage growth and real rapid 28 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 1: job growth and real wage growth without inflation. And what 29 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 1: we and the reason we could was because labor force 30 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: participation was going up. What we want to see now 31 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: is labor force participation rising and recovering, and that's what 32 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: this report shows is happening. We got a good solid 33 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: recovery among prime age workers and among workers over the 34 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: age of fifty five. Laborce percipation is fully recovered among 35 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: teens and among prime age workers almost um and it's 36 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: still down, you know, three point five percentage points among 37 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: older workers, but it is trending in the right direction. 38 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: Some of those workers are unretiring and coming back. And 39 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 1: then of course immigration is finally resuming as well. You know, 40 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 1: there has been a huge backlog of legal immigrants waiting 41 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: for their visas. UM staffing agencies that specialized in finding 42 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:20,959 Speaker 1: nurses from abroad, for example, have long, long, long lists 43 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,360 Speaker 1: of candidates who are lined up with the mortar waiting 44 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 1: to come in, waiting for those those documents. And finally 45 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 1: we're seeing that pick up as well. So the labor 46 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 1: constraints that have been holding back job growth and that 47 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 1: has been fueling this massive wage growth and possibly inflationary 48 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,920 Speaker 1: wage growth UM looks like it is easing. We're seeing 49 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 1: labor force patization recovering. That is really great news for employers. 50 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 1: It's also good news for the fits. Yeah, I agree 51 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: that the numbers look pretty solid to me. UM, We're 52 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,799 Speaker 1: starting to see a couple of companies, most notably today 53 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: Tesla talking about you know, maybe laying off some people, 54 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: you know, pausing hiring. We're hearing that from some other 55 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: tech companies. What do you make from that? I mean you, 56 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: you guys are a recruiter. You are absolutely on the 57 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 1: front lines of day to day hiring. What do you 58 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 1: make of some of those new stories? Well, this is 59 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 1: what's so interesting. So everyone reads about tech layoffs, yet 60 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: job postings overall are growing and growing fastest in the 61 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:18,239 Speaker 1: tech center in sector. So uh tech and I T 62 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 1: jobs are soaring in our marketplace. And what you hear 63 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: right now is the sound of talent acquisition teams and 64 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:32,080 Speaker 1: HR departments rapidly looking up workers at Tesla on LinkedIn 65 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: and reaching out to them to recruit them. Uh So, 66 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 1: anytime a tech worker is laid off, there are lots 67 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: and other companies, not just in the tech sector. Uh 68 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: you know, in retail, in government departments, all of the place. 69 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 1: Everyone now needs to collect the store and analyze data. 70 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 1: Everyone has a website, everyone has an app. There tech 71 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: jobs throughout the economy. Demand for those workers and those 72 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: skills is white hot, and it remains so. But just 73 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: sort of falling up on the point that Paul reis 74 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 1: that we did just this week. I feel like just 75 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 1: a barrage of news when you think about Tesla today, 76 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: but you also had Gemini and coin Base yesterday. A 77 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 1: lot of this is concentrated in the crypto and the 78 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 1: tech industry, it seems like. But do you think that, 79 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: I mean, that is some sort of uh, I don't know, 80 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 1: foreshadowing of what's to come with the labor market being 81 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: that it is so hot, and I mean we've heard 82 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 1: from Powell himself that the unemployment rate is probably unsustainably 83 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 1: low right now, so the unemployent rate will probably trend 84 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:34,600 Speaker 1: even lower for a while. Um. Yeah. Economic models show 85 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 1: that if you were to bring inflation all the way 86 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: down to two percent right now, yes, that would require 87 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: pushing unemployment all the way to six percent, right So 88 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 1: that that's what's in the back of people's minds that 89 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 1: the set has said it's going to cut inflation, and 90 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:53,279 Speaker 1: what does that mean? That would mean cooling demand uh somewhat, um, 91 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:58,799 Speaker 1: unless labor force participation recovers really rapidly, and supply chain 92 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 1: issues ease, and all of these other unforeseen factors that 93 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 1: that have contributed to this crisis kind of uh magically 94 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:13,799 Speaker 1: miraculously uh subside. So I think that's what everyone's hoping, 95 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: that that the you know, the sort of adiosyncratic issues 96 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: that led to massive oil price spikes uh and food 97 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: price spikes, that some of those will will ease in 98 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 1: the coming months, uh, and then that uh labor force 99 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 1: participation recovering will sort of cool the pressures in leisure, 100 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:41,040 Speaker 1: hospitality and warehousing and transportation UM and and this service sector. 101 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 1: So joy I mean on that labor force participation rate 102 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 1: about thirty seconds left it's sixty two point three percent. 103 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,480 Speaker 1: Where would you like to see that? I mean, I 104 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 1: would like to see that go all the way back 105 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 1: up to where it was before UM and and higher 106 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 1: or what we saw and where is that sixty s 107 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 1: four percent? I believe um and UH we we could 108 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 1: actually what we saw amazingly in nine was that conditions 109 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: were right for people to find work. More people entered 110 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 1: the lave market and UH and so we know that 111 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 1: there is actually more UH fuel in the tank in 112 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: the lave market. Right, Good stuff, all right, Julia, thank 113 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Love getting your perspective there. 114 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 1: Julia Pollock, chief economist at Zip Recruiter. And I think 115 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 1: it's like when I talk to my kids are in 116 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: their twenties, Zipp Recruiters like a big go to in 117 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,360 Speaker 1: addition to Lincoln, they talk about Zipp Recruiter all the time. 118 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: They also have a full push on advertising. I feel 119 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: like I hear them a lot on podcasts right now. 120 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 1: And we're checking with David Beat's managing principal and senior 121 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 1: portfolio strategist at the UH. I guess I don't know 122 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 1: a Gladstone Bank, Peacack Private Wealth Management. David what's the 123 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 1: name of your firm to stay? I you know I 124 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,039 Speaker 1: grew up it was Pepack Gladstone Bank. What are you 125 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,720 Speaker 1: calling it these days? So that's the parent company, p 126 00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 1: Pack Gladstone Bank, and we're in the pepack um kind 127 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 1: of private wealth management decision. Alright, good stuff. All I 128 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: know is David Dietz has been covering these markets for 129 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 1: a long time, folks, so when he speaks, he comes 130 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: with a lot of perspective. So day, we had some 131 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 1: good jobs data out today. Um, the economy seems to 132 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: be in pretty good shape. How are you guys thinking 133 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: about things? So the number one concern right now is 134 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 1: this stagflation concern, the concern that inflation continues to be 135 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 1: a problem, which keeps to Fed vigorously hiking rates, yet 136 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: the economy is starting to cool. So, you know, the 137 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 1: job's report today, I thought it as a bit mixed. 138 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess the good news from an economic 139 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: point of view is we got more jobs than expected, 140 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 1: although they did reduce March and April. The problem is 141 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: it's not enough for the Fed to say, gee, maybe 142 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: we'll be taking a pause in our rate hikes come September. Um, 143 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: you know, the good news I suppose was that the 144 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 1: hourly wage, uh conversation increases. We're a little bit better 145 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: than expected. It was three tenths of a percent. But still, 146 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: you know you multiple times twelve you get three point 147 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: six percent this country, this fed I don't think we'll 148 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 1: be satisfied with three point six percent. Inflation is the 149 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 1: end target. And you brought up seculation, and I want 150 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 1: to stay there because it seems like it's a very 151 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 1: loaded term. And when I talk to people about sex fleation, 152 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: they always point to the labor market and tell me, 153 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: you know you you do, you don't have sex flation. 154 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 1: When the unemployment rate is at three point six per cent, 155 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: do you agree with that? Well, I mean that is 156 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:34,439 Speaker 1: a very good number historically, that's full employment. Um, so 157 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 1: you know, from the inflation perspective that suggested it's still 158 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 1: going to be upward pressure on wages. But here's the 159 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: here's the problem. The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. 160 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 1: People only companies only higher after the business conditions are good. 161 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: And now we've just heard from three blue chips this week. 162 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: You've got JP Morgan in the form of Jamie Diamond, 163 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 1: You've got Microsoft, You've got Test flow, with Elon Musk 164 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 1: suggesting that business conditions are the weekend, that there are 165 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 1: reasons for concern. So you're looking forward here and and 166 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 1: things don't look so good, and you know, of course 167 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: a stock market investors need to look forward, all right, David, 168 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 1: The SNP is beginning June where it started in May. 169 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: I mean I could have just stayed on the North 170 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 1: and South course Canoe Brook for the entire month of 171 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 1: May and not missed a darned thing. What do we 172 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 1: do from here? What are you telling your clients? So 173 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 1: you can't time this market? And we do know. The 174 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: reason that we have such a good week last week 175 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: was there was some suggestions from Jerome Powell that the 176 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: economy does matter to him, it's not just about inflation. 177 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: And we had a great week last week, the best 178 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 1: week since two thousand twenty this month and this week 179 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: has has been cooler. So we say stay in the game, 180 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 1: don't try and time it, but do shade into areas 181 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: that certainly are cheaper. Um that for us is smaller companies. 182 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: Small cap value was a no brainer. Has done better 183 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 1: than the market this year, but now small cap growth 184 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 1: has come down cheaper than the overall market cheaper than 185 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 1: historically is the case, and so that's an area to 186 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,440 Speaker 1: look at. We still like energy. We think that there's 187 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 1: gonna be a lack of new production, but the demand 188 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: of course continue strong. Financials. You've got the Bank of 189 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:15,719 Speaker 1: American JP Morgan both down. Historically they do better when 190 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:18,319 Speaker 1: interstrates move up. So those are some areas to look at. 191 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:20,559 Speaker 1: And I want to get your thoughts on something else 192 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: that happened this week because Wednesday, June one, it was 193 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: the official start of quantitative tightening. So the first actual 194 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 1: quantitative tightening will happen on June fifteenth, that's when fifteen 195 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: billion dollars of treasury securities are actually set to mature. 196 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: But still June first an important symbolic date. What do 197 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 1: you expect to happen? Because there's not much of a 198 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 1: blueprint here for how quantitative quantitative tightening plays out in 199 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: the market. Uh, is this whole priced energy? You think 200 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: there's more volatility to come, Well, we're certain there's gonna 201 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 1: be more volatility, so you know, having uh, having the 202 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 1: monetary tightening and taking ultimately about two trillion of bonds 203 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 1: off the Federal Reserve balance sheet and braining liquidity that's 204 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 1: the negative. And then there's the question, of course, to 205 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 1: what extense priced in we're suggesting as priced in and 206 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 1: some of the smaller companies. But you know, my concern 207 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:15,560 Speaker 1: that people are talking about it is though it's gonna 208 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: be on autopilot every single month for the next two 209 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: to three years. That's just not the case. I think 210 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 1: this FED will be data dependent even about those objectives. 211 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 1: And if there is some sign that they're weakening, that 212 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 1: we're gonna go into a hard landing, I think they 213 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: can put that on pause as well. So, just like 214 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: the the federal reserve rate hikes, even the quantitative tightening 215 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 1: is subject to debate. I think every month, Hey, David, 216 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: you know, I'm looking at the uh I end go 217 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 1: function on the bloomber Truma gives me all these great 218 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:49,319 Speaker 1: in the see data, and I'm looking index data, and 219 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 1: I'm looking at total corporate bond returns in the US 220 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 1: year to day. It's down like twelve or something. I mean, 221 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 1: it's just brutal in the bond market. Is now the 222 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 1: time to you know, kind of lean into the bottom market, 223 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 1: as you kids say, you we're getting more constructive on 224 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 1: the bondo market. I mean when you look at history, 225 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 1: you down twelve and let's say the first four months. 226 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 1: If you analyze that, you're gonna be down what close 227 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 1: to three times that for the full year thirty six percent. 228 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 1: That's not gonna happen. So we think at some point 229 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: that kind of levels out here. Obviously you're getting more 230 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:24,680 Speaker 1: income now than you did at the start of the year, 231 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 1: and of course, to some extent is due to a 232 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 1: little um some concern over credit quality starting to creep in. 233 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 1: Most of it has been concerned about with you know, 234 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 1: higher benchmark rates and the treasuries um and inflation so forth. 235 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 1: We don't think that that's just going to continue in 236 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 1: a straight line. So we would be looking again to 237 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 1: hold on to some high quality fixed income. And of 238 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 1: course most people are worried about the stock market. If 239 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 1: the stock market really starts to weekend, where are people 240 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 1: going to go now with the higher income, I would 241 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: suggest it would go back into bonds, including corporate bonds. 242 00:12:57,800 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: And so you still need that in order to head 243 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 1: your overall portfolio for your long time term goals. And 244 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 1: I'm happy you went to bonds because that's what I 245 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:08,719 Speaker 1: want to ask about sort of the thinking about portfolio 246 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 1: allocation bonds versus equities. I was looking at junk yields 247 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: for example, They're close to seven percent. Uh, that seems 248 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 1: pretty high. It was closer to eight percent about a 249 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 1: month ago, but still pretty high. You compare that to 250 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: equity returns. How are you thinking about sizing up those 251 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 1: two asset classes. Well, certainly junk bonds are more attractive 252 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: from a yield perspective than to start of the year. 253 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 1: I do think it reflects some concerns that we have 254 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: a hard landing, that there's the risk of recession that's increased, 255 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 1: and you know, the question is is the compensation enough 256 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: to offset that increased risks? So, you know, I think 257 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 1: it goes back to your overall portfolio. To the extent 258 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 1: you're leaning towards stocks, we take a light approach to 259 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: junk bonds because you already got a lot of risk 260 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,719 Speaker 1: in your portfolio altility due to the stocks, and they 261 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 1: may also give you a better at tack outcome. To 262 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: the extent you want to hedge recession risk in stock 263 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: market volatility, we would stick with the high quality bonds 264 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 1: because those are the bonds of people are gonna run to. 265 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 1: Wouldn't um again go back to two thousand, two thousand nine, 266 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 1: junk bonds did not hedge equity risk. And although we're 267 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: not predicting anything like deaths going forward, if it does happen, 268 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: you're not gonna want the junk bonds, all right, David, 269 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. David Diet's managing 270 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 1: principal and senior portfolio strategist at Pepeck Private Wealth Management. 271 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 1: Appreciate get David's perspective on these markets. Let's check in 272 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 1: with our next guest right here, Jonathan Hurdle. You call 273 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 1: him John Hurdle, Executive Chairman Hurdle, Callahan and Company. Hey, John, 274 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. You know, I 275 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 1: guess the economic discussion that certainly we've been having here 276 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:52,960 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Radio TV over the last several weeks, if 277 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 1: not longer, is some kinds of the stagflation recession. Um, 278 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 1: we've gotten some pretty good consumer eight to recently we 279 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 1: had a pretty darn solid jobs number today. How how 280 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 1: do you think about the economic outlook is as you 281 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: guys think about your portfolios. Well, it's nice to hear 282 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 1: your voice again, Paul, and thank you for having me on. 283 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 1: I think economic forecasting. John Kenneth Galbreath said that it's 284 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: the main purpose of economic forecasting is to make astrology 285 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: look good by comparison. So you know, there's a lot 286 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 1: of lines about that, and it's so accurate and that's 287 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 1: why there's so many humorous lines. Another one is if 288 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: you you know, got a every economists in American lined 289 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 1: them up head to put, that wouldn't reach a conclusion. 290 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: You know, so it's clear that the economy is weaker 291 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 1: than it was. Whether we're going into a recession or not. 292 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 1: Only time will tell. It's really actually impossible to predict 293 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: number one and number two. It's not binary. So a 294 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 1: recession is one thing. How bad is a recession? You know, 295 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 1: a soft landing. When I was in the service, we 296 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 1: used to talk about any landing you could walk away 297 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: from was a successful one. So is it perfect? No, 298 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 1: But given the work, you know, interest rates in the world, 299 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 1: will stock still be attractive if earnings are still okay? 300 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: You know, the aggregate economy is weaker, but great companies 301 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 1: continue to succeed, and relative to bonds, the stock market 302 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 1: still looks attractive. So you know, we think it's impossible 303 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 1: to predict, and we don't spend a lot of time 304 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 1: trying to predict that economic scenarios going forward. At what 305 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 1: point would bonds become attractive Again, Well, let's uh, you know, 306 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 1: investor by investor, But right now, clearly the tenure treasury 307 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 1: is still substantially negative, Katie. Um, if we take away inflation, 308 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: we're really losing purchasing power every day, and so the 309 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 1: interest rates have risen a little bit because so has inflation. 310 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 1: So the net effect is that the real return on 311 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 1: bonds is still unattractive. That doesn't mean you shouldn't own 312 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 1: some short term fixed things as just an insurance policy 313 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 1: against volatility and an opportunity some dry powder in case 314 00:16:56,320 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 1: you want to spend some money in the market. Yeah, Jonathan, 315 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 1: you did. You mentioned your service. You served in the the 316 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:07,400 Speaker 1: United States Marine Corps two. So I'm guessing, uh, you're 317 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: taking a particular interest in what's happening in Ukraine. But 318 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:15,399 Speaker 1: from economic markets perspective, from a fund of you know, 319 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 1: flow of goods and services perspective, from an inflation perspective, 320 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:23,399 Speaker 1: how do you kind of incorporate that uncertainty, uh into 321 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:29,360 Speaker 1: your outlook? Well, these exogenous events are always unpredictable, and 322 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 1: so when you're looking at markets. You have to. You 323 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 1: can't have a market that's priced to perfection, which we 324 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 1: sort of did coming into the year. In other words, 325 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 1: the market wasn't that high relative to bonds. But this 326 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:43,679 Speaker 1: sort of scenario was that, you know, we're changing the 327 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: world with secular growth companies, great tech companies. Interestmates are 328 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 1: going to remain low, so we can have aggressive federal 329 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: spending because if things keep going just as well as 330 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 1: they've been going, we can afford it. So there's this 331 00:17:56,200 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 1: a notion that is, as long as everything goes long 332 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:04,119 Speaker 1: perfectly smoothly, will be fine. Well, when you start to 333 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 1: add more things that have to go on perfectly smoothly, 334 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 1: that's what we mean by price to perfection, and all 335 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 1: of a sudden something happens like uh an invasion of Ukraine, 336 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: like this, you know, lockdown in China that really make 337 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: the supply chain woes even worse that we're created initially 338 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 1: by COVID, and you've really got a situation that that 339 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 1: stresses the market. So this notion of exogenous shocks always 340 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 1: ought to be factored into one's risk calculation. So where 341 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 1: are you finding opportunity if you look at the equity 342 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 1: market right now? I mean you mentioned tech sort of 343 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 1: priced for perfection. I mean, is it safe to say 344 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: that you're not going all in on tech right now? Well, 345 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,679 Speaker 1: now we're we're really First of all, I would say this, Katie, 346 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 1: if you're an allocator, in other words, if you're a 347 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 1: four one K participant, you really ought to be happy 348 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 1: that the market is down as much as it is 349 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 1: because from a dollar cost averaging standpoint, this is a 350 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: chance for you to buy stocks cheaper than you did 351 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,359 Speaker 1: last quarter and last year. And what you want to 352 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 1: do over time, and and you know, the beauty of 353 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:10,640 Speaker 1: dollar cost averaging is if you put in the same 354 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: amount of money every quarter, you'd buy more stock, more 355 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 1: ownership when the prices are low. So it really enhances 356 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,440 Speaker 1: you return over time to be buying when stocks are low. 357 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 1: So from a standpoint of four one K participants or allocators, 358 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: they should continue to pursue their strategy, which is, if 359 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 1: they want to have six of their assets and stocks 360 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 1: and it's dropped a little bit, you know, balance it 361 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 1: back up or at least halfway back up. So broadly 362 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,080 Speaker 1: in the US equity market and really around the world, 363 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 1: we still think you should be buying when at low 364 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 1: prices and then self stop there all right, good stuff. 365 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:52,159 Speaker 1: John Hurdle, Executive Chairman Hurdle, Callahan and Company. He is 366 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: a proud alumnus underground n NBA from Happy Valley. That 367 00:19:55,880 --> 00:20:01,840 Speaker 1: would be State College Pennsylvania at the penn State University. 368 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 1: It is job staying is trial is just reporting it 369 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 1: a better and expected print there on the jobless number today, 370 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:12,120 Speaker 1: so a better and expected UH jobs environment. We had 371 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 1: some good UH wage increases five point on an annualized basis, 372 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 1: maybe even some room to grow on the labor participation rate. 373 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 1: So things are pretty good here in the US. Let's 374 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 1: take a look at how it might be on a 375 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 1: global scale. We can do that with our next guest, 376 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:28,159 Speaker 1: Nicole Sahine, founder and author UH and the firm is 377 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 1: Globalization Partners, Nicole, as the name of your firm implies globalization. Um, 378 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 1: how's the global labor market? It's pretty solid here, as 379 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,400 Speaker 1: we got another data point today here in the US. 380 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 1: But what are you seeing around the world in other parts? 381 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: We're seeing exactly the same thing as we're seeing in 382 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:47,120 Speaker 1: the United States, which is the talent market for professional 383 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:52,919 Speaker 1: skilled talent is extremely tight. So the interesting of the 384 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 1: here I'm just wondering, you know, immigration issues, UM and 385 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,920 Speaker 1: the whole move took. Globalization seem to you know, taken 386 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,240 Speaker 1: a backseat over the last you know, four or five years, 387 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 1: the whole concept of you know, a globalized economy. Uh, 388 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 1: people are pulling back from that a little bit. How 389 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 1: do you think about that? Where are we in terms 390 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: of the globalization of this economy? Yeah, it's it is 391 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 1: super interesting. I think that the key difference here is 392 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:23,119 Speaker 1: that people no longer need to immigrate in order to 393 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 1: have access to opportunity. What we're seeing is that the 394 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 1: best companies in the world are going wherever the talent is. 395 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,879 Speaker 1: So right now we see customers who have never hired 396 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:35,679 Speaker 1: internationally before UM just hiring talent anywhere they can find it. 397 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: I mean, it's it was that way for quite some 398 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 1: time and engineering, but now we're seeing them do that 399 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 1: all across the board and and pretty much every role 400 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,480 Speaker 1: that you could do in a digital environment. And that 401 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 1: is kind of presumably that is a result or an 402 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 1: outcome of UM a byproduct of this pandemic. Yeah, you know, 403 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 1: I think it's a it's a result of the pandemic 404 00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,439 Speaker 1: and our mental shift towards the idea that anyone truly 405 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,160 Speaker 1: can work from anywhere instead of, you know, having people 406 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 1: go to the office. I think we all realized how 407 00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,719 Speaker 1: productive we can be. And of course it's a result 408 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,400 Speaker 1: of the incredible technology that's come along the last ten 409 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,920 Speaker 1: here that hasn't enabled us all to be truly productive 410 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 1: from anywhere. Yeah, it really is amazing. Um. You know, 411 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 1: I was thinking just initially of the financial services industry 412 00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:18,919 Speaker 1: and here in New York City, for example, when the 413 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 1: trading desk shut down on all the traders went home, 414 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:22,880 Speaker 1: I said, there's no way they're going to be able 415 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 1: to kind of do what they did on these big 416 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 1: trading desks. But sure enough, quarter after quarter after quarter, 417 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 1: Wall Street has delivered incredible trading results showing that their 418 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: employees could, in fact, uh, their bankers, their traders could 419 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,080 Speaker 1: in fact be productive. Is that what we're seeing in 420 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 1: a lot of the economy other parts of the economy 421 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: as well. Oh? Absolutely, I mean we're seeing exactly that 422 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 1: people can be productive from working remotely and from home, 423 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,880 Speaker 1: and people want to be able to work from wherever 424 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 1: they are. So I think in many ways it's great 425 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 1: for everyone. It's great for companies, and it's great for employees, 426 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,440 Speaker 1: because again, we all want to live where we want 427 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,400 Speaker 1: to live instead of just consolidating opportunity around New York, 428 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 1: in the Silicon Valley in London. Are we seeing employers 429 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: or do you think we will see employers say Okay, 430 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: you don't want to work in high priced Silicon Valley 431 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,879 Speaker 1: or or New York City. You want to you know, 432 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 1: be in Idaho. I'm going to just your compensation accordingly. 433 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 1: Is is that happening? Will it happen? Oh? Uh so? 434 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,400 Speaker 1: I think it depends on the situation. I would say 435 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: that usually right now, because the labor market is so tight, 436 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 1: and because things happen so suddenly with the pandemic without 437 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:36,160 Speaker 1: people companies being prepared. Most of many of the time, 438 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 1: companies might have tried to adjust compensation a bit, but 439 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:41,639 Speaker 1: more often than not it was just in default the 440 00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 1: employee moved. Now, I will say, salary is still set 441 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,399 Speaker 1: by a location. So in general, while we are seeing 442 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,000 Speaker 1: compensation go up across the board quite quickly, as we've 443 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 1: all been talking about um, usually compensation is set by geography. 444 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,720 Speaker 1: But I think over the next ten years will start 445 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 1: you know, the trend line is changing on that, but 446 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 1: not overnight Yeah, it's interesting and I guess what we're 447 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:09,879 Speaker 1: learning from when we listen to companies on you know, 448 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,720 Speaker 1: when they report quarterly either more and more companies are 449 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 1: saying this really seems to be the new reality, this 450 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 1: being kind of hybrid work schedule, whether it's you know, 451 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,439 Speaker 1: a few days a week in the office or you know, 452 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 1: a week a month in the office. Is that the 453 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:28,920 Speaker 1: trend you're seeing around the world, I am. We are 454 00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 1: seeing around the world. Um, it really depends a little 455 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,400 Speaker 1: bit by country and culture. Some some locations just it's 456 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,439 Speaker 1: really the cultural norm to go into the office. And 457 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,440 Speaker 1: that was the case much more as compared to the 458 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 1: United States, which awaits how to work. We had a 459 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:46,840 Speaker 1: pretty flexible remote work policy for most professional organizations. But 460 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 1: now what we're seeing there's two interesting trends I would 461 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 1: say around the world. One is that the remote work 462 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:56,200 Speaker 1: has become one of the most valuable benefits for employees 463 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,159 Speaker 1: everywhere in the world. People just do not want to 464 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 1: go into the office, um, and I think that companies 465 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 1: that are insisting everyone go into the office all the 466 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 1: time are going to get some pushed back. The other 467 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,920 Speaker 1: trend is that we're seeing we're seeing employees and locations 468 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,040 Speaker 1: everywhere saying I don't want an Indian salary or I 469 00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,520 Speaker 1: don't want an Ohio salary. I want a New York 470 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,639 Speaker 1: City salary. And I'm worth it regardless of what my 471 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 1: costs and what my cost of living is. That's hugely 472 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,200 Speaker 1: different than it was before. Yeah, it's certainly. I think 473 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 1: the leverage is on the on the part of the 474 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 1: employee at this moment um. It's it's interesting, you know, 475 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,600 Speaker 1: I spent thirty years on Wall Street, and you know, 476 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 1: when I think about the various firms I worked at, 477 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 1: I don't think about really the building. I don't think about, 478 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,399 Speaker 1: you know, necessarily the deals we did or the trades 479 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,639 Speaker 1: we made. It was more about the people that I 480 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,639 Speaker 1: identify with and and that was forged by being together, 481 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:49,639 Speaker 1: working together, eating together, traveling together. I do, in fact, 482 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 1: wonder how important that is. It seems important to me 483 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 1: now as I look back on my career, but I 484 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:58,000 Speaker 1: wonder how important that whole camaraderie and working together, the 485 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,960 Speaker 1: benefits of being together, how much of a risk that 486 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:05,960 Speaker 1: is for employees and employers longer term. Yeah, it's it's 487 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 1: incredibly important because I think you're right that human connection 488 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:12,440 Speaker 1: is what bonds us. What we're doing at Globalization partners 489 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,680 Speaker 1: UM is you know, with our own internal team, we 490 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 1: are working to bring to people together on a quarterly, 491 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,200 Speaker 1: bi annual or annual basis where people can see each 492 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 1: other in person. And in some cases we're getting not 493 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 1: office locations, but locations where people can go in and 494 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:31,520 Speaker 1: meet each other and talk. So, for example, with our 495 00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 1: Global Employments platform UM, it enables companies to hire talent 496 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: all over the globe without dealing with legal HR and 497 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 1: tax issues. Are engineers like to meet in a central 498 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:43,920 Speaker 1: location and just kind of brainstorm things out with a 499 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:48,040 Speaker 1: white board, So we're you know, trying to enable them 500 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 1: to have those meeting spaces UM without forcing people to 501 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,160 Speaker 1: go to an office on a schedule, because they really 502 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,400 Speaker 1: do their best, you know, alone work at home by 503 00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 1: themselves in most cases. Interesting. Well it just lastly, just 504 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,399 Speaker 1: quickly on immigration in this country, we still see a 505 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,920 Speaker 1: lot of you know, pretty much every restaurant, every place 506 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 1: you kind of go, retail help wanted and I kind 507 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,400 Speaker 1: of think a lot of that those types of roles 508 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,359 Speaker 1: were filled by immigrants, legal and illegal. How do you 509 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,760 Speaker 1: think see that involving in the US. That's stuff to say. 510 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,239 Speaker 1: I mean that is definitely a political question. But at 511 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 1: the end of the day, Um, I think wages are 512 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 1: going up, so hopefully more of those roles will be 513 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 1: filled by people who are here. I think prices are 514 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 1: going up, so in California, for example, did increase significantly 515 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:36,960 Speaker 1: restaurant prices. And there's inflation cost adjustments on menus, which 516 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 1: is just a new way organizations are dealing with this 517 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 1: type of costs. Um. Right. I think immigration is a 518 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,399 Speaker 1: good thing when we don't have enough people to fulfill 519 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 1: all the jobs that we want. Um. Highly politically charged topic. Yeah, 520 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 1: absolutely want to see how that evolves. Nicole Sahine, founder 521 00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 1: an author of Globalization partis talking about the global labor markets. 522 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 1: Certainly good here in the US again, good good jobs 523 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:05,399 Speaker 1: number today. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 524 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:09,040 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts 525 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 526 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:17,159 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three and on Fall Sweeney 527 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,800 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you 528 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.