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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome back to the Betting Crows Podcast.

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Speaker 1: Today we break down UFC three oh three from a

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Speaker 1: sports gambling perspective. My name is Seth Wilcock, and today

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Speaker 1: I'm putting them up with a legend in the MMA

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Speaker 1: betting world. He's the founder of Mad Lab MMA and

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Speaker 1: without a doubt, a properly jacked individual. Ladies and gentlemen,

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Speaker 1: Mike Aerto, Mike, how are we doing today?

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Speaker 2: Brother good Man? How are you?

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Speaker 3: I'm doing, good Man?

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Speaker 1: Excited for what's been a fight card that's kind of

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Speaker 1: been changing ever since we got it. Initially, it feels

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Speaker 1: like every time I look at it, we have a

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Speaker 1: different fighter coming up for grabs here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's been crazy, man, And you know, fights just

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Speaker 4: keep falling off on other cards. You just got Macy

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Speaker 4: Barber Fallham off of the Roseen Immunis card. I don't

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Speaker 4: know what it is. The last couple of months, we've

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Speaker 4: kind of been hexts. But the UFC does a tremendous

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Speaker 4: job getting into that war room and you know, making

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Speaker 4: it right. So they actually did a really good job

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Speaker 4: with this. This is actually parts of this card are

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Speaker 4: better than it was before it fell apart.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, hundred percent.

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Speaker 1: The fights will be getting under away this Saturday night

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Speaker 1: at T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with the main

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Speaker 1: card beginning at ten pm Eastern time. How are we

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Speaker 1: feeling about this card in general? No Connor McGregor, no

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Speaker 1: Khalil Rowntree after they're pulling out, Are we still excited

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Speaker 1: or vibes still high for you?

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Speaker 3: Mike?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I have a good grasp on this card. I

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Speaker 4: really do like a lot of the matchups, especially the

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Speaker 4: Ortega and Lopes edition that they put. I thought that

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Speaker 4: was a great addition. Yeah, I'm super excited for this

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Speaker 4: car from top to bottom.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be really.

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Speaker 3: Good, awesome.

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Speaker 1: On today's program, we're going to go through the light

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Speaker 1: heavyweight title bout, then the featherweight bout, another light heavyweight bout,

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Speaker 1: and then we'll cover Mike's best of the rest. But first,

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Speaker 1: I wanted to remind everyone. If you are listening here

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Speaker 1: on YouTube, please subscribe and comment below because when you do,

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Speaker 1: you could win a free upgrade to Betting Pros Premium.

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Speaker 1: Whether you're looking for exclusive perks, top righted player props,

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Speaker 1: or custom analysis, Betting Pros Premium has the tools to

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Speaker 1: help you cash more bets, plain and simple. It's also

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Speaker 1: the easiest way to support people like myself here at

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros. And let's start with a light heavyweight title

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Speaker 1: bout between the champion, Alex Preira and Yeri Perowska.

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Speaker 3: Alex Prera, former kickboxer.

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Speaker 1: He's only been the UFC for a couple of years now, Mike,

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Speaker 1: but has really already stamped his mark on the sport.

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Speaker 1: Former middleweight champion, now the current light heavyweight champion.

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Speaker 3: This a rematch. The last two times these guys fought.

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Speaker 1: It was UFC two ninety five back in November of

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, where Pierra eventually wins by ko.

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Speaker 3: Do things change this time around, Mike?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's tough.

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Speaker 4: I never like big fights like this on short notice,

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Speaker 4: when there's this much high magnitude in a fight, you know,

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Speaker 4: when you have the belt on the line. I never

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Speaker 4: like two guys coming in kind of, you know, half cocked.

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Speaker 2: In their camps, you know.

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Speaker 4: But I will say this, I will say that, you know,

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Speaker 4: you kind of got to understand that Pieri does have

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Speaker 4: that much to lose, you know what I mean, if

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Speaker 4: you think about it, they're giving him a very big

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Speaker 4: bag of money for this because he's saving a card.

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Speaker 2: It's just sure signing him up for the card.

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Speaker 4: Also, you know in that contract, trilogies are huge, so

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Speaker 4: he's getting an automatic rematch if he loses this fight,

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Speaker 4: you know, So it's kind of a win win for him.

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Speaker 4: He's getting a lot of money. He could still keep

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Speaker 4: the belt and kind of move Yearie at it away

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Speaker 4: for good winning two in a row, or he gets

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Speaker 4: a rematch. So I understand why he took it, but

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Speaker 4: I don't like it. He did have a foot injury.

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Speaker 4: You gotta wonder, you know, how both of these guys

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Speaker 4: are coming in. I know, you know, Piero was away

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Speaker 4: in Australia, he was doing media obligations and stuff like that.

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Speaker 4: So how prepared of both of these guys are we

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Speaker 4: going to get both at the best? I don't see

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Speaker 4: much value either side on the line because to me,

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Speaker 4: it's like it's still a wonderment, you know what I mean,

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Speaker 4: It's like how show in shape are they?

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Speaker 2: How good is their conditioning?

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Speaker 4: But you know, when you do look at the numbers,

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Speaker 4: when you do look at rematches, more times than not,

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Speaker 4: the guy who won the first time wins the second time.

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Speaker 2: You know what I mean.

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Speaker 4: So one thing I didn't notice about Yeeri is in

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Speaker 4: all his fights he does not learn one lesson. He

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Speaker 4: does not check leg cakes. He refuses to check leg cakes,

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Speaker 4: and that's a big issue from him.

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Speaker 2: It's been a big issue for him. He does get

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Speaker 2: a little chaotic.

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Speaker 4: He had a good fight against Alexander Rackage, but he

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Speaker 4: did get very reckless in there, and you can't get

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Speaker 4: reckless against somebody like like Potan. So I do like

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Speaker 4: him in this spot, but I would be you know,

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Speaker 4: I would say and still, but I would be very

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Speaker 4: hesitant and I'm going to the window in place in

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Speaker 4: that bet.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so kind of a pass for you rather than

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Speaker 1: drinking the juice on the champion or going with the

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Speaker 1: contender here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, there's probably props that you could look at, but

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Speaker 4: we discussed before the show. The props aren't even out

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Speaker 4: yet for most of these fights, so you know there's

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Speaker 4: over and others that you can look at. There's obviously

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Speaker 4: combinations of ways they can win. I would have to

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Speaker 4: see those lines. But as of a straight bet, it's

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Speaker 4: probably one because like I said, it is short notice,

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Speaker 4: I'd probably stay away from and just enjoy it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So a no bet on the money line for

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Speaker 1: Mike here in the title fight. Let's move to the

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Speaker 1: featherweight bout of the night. Number three contender Brian or

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Speaker 1: Tega is going up against number fourteen contender Diego Lopez. However,

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Speaker 1: or Tega is the dog in this fight. Is that

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Speaker 1: because he's only fought once since twenty twenty two, Mike,

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Speaker 1: Or Is this line more about Lopez being the younger,

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Speaker 1: longer fighter in this match?

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Speaker 4: You know, I think there's a lot of recency biased inness.

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Speaker 4: And if you look at the MMA world every month,

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Speaker 4: every day, every year, it gets filled with more and

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Speaker 4: more casuals. Sure, these guys kind of bite down on

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Speaker 4: the hype trains. And that's one thing that we do

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Speaker 4: at the mad level MMA is we kind of fade

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Speaker 4: the public. You know, when they go one way, we

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Speaker 4: try to go the other way because a lot of

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Speaker 4: that is casual money coming in. I don't see a

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Speaker 4: reason why Ortega should be a dog here. I think

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Speaker 4: there is value on Ortega here. He's a much more

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Speaker 4: season fighter. We know how durable he is. You know,

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Speaker 4: Diego Lopes, this is a guy who I absolutely love.

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Speaker 4: He's made me a lot of money in the past,

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Speaker 4: but this is a big step up in competition and

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Speaker 4: he's going up against a guy who is a better

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Speaker 4: grappler than him. He's extremely durable, he showed us that

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Speaker 4: he has very good striking. He's got, you know, levels

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Speaker 4: more of experience, and it's just how do you pass

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Speaker 4: up that value When you look at all the checkboxes

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Speaker 4: and you go from veteran savvy to striking, to grappling,

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Speaker 4: to experience the cage hours, it all kind of falls.

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Speaker 2: In his favor.

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Speaker 4: You're going momentum and you're going on the Diego Lobes favorite.

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Speaker 4: He's got the momentum, but if you look at his

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Speaker 4: cage time, he's got less than like a round and

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Speaker 4: a half in cage time, you know.

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Speaker 2: What I mean.

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Speaker 4: So so these are all factors you got to play in.

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Speaker 4: So as far as a value play, if you guys

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Speaker 4: are looking for some value deep into this card, there's

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Speaker 4: absolutely value on Brian Ortegan. Also there's also value on

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Speaker 4: Brian Ortega if you guys have draft kings three and

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Speaker 4: a half rounds, So basically that means he's getting three

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Speaker 4: and a half rounds, which means if it does go

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Speaker 4: to the cards, if it goes to the cards, then

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Speaker 4: he just cannot have one judge give him a thirty

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Speaker 4: twenty seven. If he loses twenty nine to twenty eight,

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Speaker 4: you win your bet. If he wins the fight, you

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Speaker 4: win your bet. So ultimately, he can actually lose the

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Speaker 4: fight and just not get completely smoked out of the

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Speaker 4: cage and you're getting out at minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 4: So there's value there too. But I think on the

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Speaker 4: I think there's more value on the Ortega side because

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Speaker 4: Lopes are still still got question marks on him.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so some value there on Brian Ortega,

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Speaker 1: the number three contender in this matchup.

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Speaker 3: Let's keep it moving.

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Speaker 1: But first I want to remind everyone to download the

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Speaker 1: Betting pros app. It's available on iOS and android app stores.

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Speaker 1: Use the sportsbook Sync feature to automatically track your bets

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Speaker 1: across all major sports books in just one spot. You

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Speaker 1: can track your bet performance, bet type, and also you

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Speaker 1: can get personalized bet recommendation is tailored towards your interest.

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Speaker 1: To make sure you're checking out the Betting pros app. Today, Mike,

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Speaker 1: let's look at this light heavyweight bout number ten, Anthony

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Speaker 1: Smith is going to go up against Roman the lead. Say,

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Speaker 1: Anthony Smith seemingly been around forever, just fought and won

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Speaker 1: by submission in UFC three to zero one, but two

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Speaker 1: and three in his last five fights. Meanwhile, Roman comes

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Speaker 1: back and uh minus one fifty six to get his

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Speaker 1: hand raised. Here he is favored on the money line.

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Speaker 1: He's about the same size, about the same age, but

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Speaker 1: zero to two in his last two fights. What happens here?

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Speaker 1: Is this a miss price or is this the hype

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Speaker 1: trained rightfully behind Roman?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, now this is a misprice. You know, all my

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Speaker 2: radars go up for this.

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Speaker 4: The problem, the reason why I back off of fights

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Speaker 4: like this sometimes is because guys like Anthony Smith are

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Speaker 4: so lackadays. Ago he comes in sometimes and he shows

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Speaker 4: the world like I'm not ready to go yet. Then

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Speaker 4: he comes in and he looks like he's ready to go,

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Speaker 4: you know. So, But if you look at this spot,

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Speaker 4: the one thing that raises my radar on this is

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Speaker 4: that Roman Delidze is a one eighty five er.

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Speaker 2: Okay, he's coming up to fight two oh five. Here.

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Speaker 4: This is a guy who seemingly has cardio issues, you

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Speaker 4: know when he has a full camp. So now he's

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Speaker 4: coming in on one week's notice. He's bumping up to

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Speaker 4: two oh five to fight Anthony Smith, who, now you know,

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Speaker 4: he just had a huge win in his last fight.

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Speaker 4: That obviously now you know this is a guy who

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Speaker 4: believes everything. He believes. He's always one fight out of

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Speaker 4: a title shot one fight, so he's got momentum in

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Speaker 4: his favor. He's also had about five six weeks to train,

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Speaker 4: So you're getting in Anthony Smith, who is a more

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Speaker 4: season fighter. Yeah, is he washed? Has he been in

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Speaker 4: wars yet? But he's been five to six weeks in camp.

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Speaker 4: He's fighting at two o five. De Leeds's coming up

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Speaker 4: from one eighty five to two oh five with cardio

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Speaker 4: issues one week of training. All signs and signals are

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Speaker 4: pointing towards Anthony Smith at plus money, and that's who

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Speaker 4: I'm actually picking to win this fight. But you also

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Speaker 4: got to remember, when you take your money and you

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Speaker 4: go to the window for Anthony Smith, you're taking a

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Speaker 4: huge risk you know on which Anthony Smith is going

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Speaker 4: to show up. But so there, I do see the value,

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Speaker 4: but I also understand why somebody would be hesitant on

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Speaker 4: dropping their money on Anthony Smith. But I'm officially going

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Speaker 4: to pick him to win that fight.

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Speaker 3: So a little more volatile.

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Speaker 1: Is kind of what I'm hearing out of Anthony Smith's

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Speaker 1: camp is if it's the guy that we think it

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Speaker 1: is and he shows up, plus one twenty two is

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Speaker 1: a pretty good number for him. But if not, you know,

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Speaker 1: we might end up getting burned here. So still playing him,

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Speaker 1: still back in him. It sounds like here on Anthony Smith.

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Speaker 1: Glad to hear it there. Let's get to the best

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Speaker 1: of the rest here, Mike.

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Speaker 3: Really kind of a fun card top to bottom.

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Speaker 1: The prelims, the early prelims, it's all really cool here,

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Speaker 1: and I love the prelims personally for someone who's a

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Speaker 1: casual UFC fan, it kind of helps them get into

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Speaker 1: the sport a little bit more here. And some pretty

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Speaker 1: decent fighters in the prelims this week we have Mark

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Speaker 1: Andre Barrio, we have Cup Swanson. We also on the

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Speaker 1: main card have a really good women's bantamweight fight. So

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Speaker 1: what other fights you have circled and any other best

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Speaker 1: bets you can share with our betting pros audience.

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Speaker 4: Mike, Yeah, Like, like I said, a lot of the

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Speaker 4: props aren't really out for this, so it's tough, but

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Speaker 4: I will give you a that you can definitely keep

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Speaker 4: an eye on, and that's Michelle Waterson. And the reason

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Speaker 4: why I say that is because Jillian Robertson this is

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Speaker 4: a girl who I always look at her fights. When

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Speaker 4: she fights, she's a very good grappler on the dim Thomas.

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Speaker 4: But the thing with her camp and her team and

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Speaker 4: her they're so pigeonholed on grappling. They just refuse to,

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Speaker 4: you know, get this girl striking go when she uses

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Speaker 4: her striking as a means to an end to get

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Speaker 4: it to the ground. And that's all great because when

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Speaker 4: you get somebody who wants to engage with you, you're

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Speaker 4: going to be you know, it's you know, she's in

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Speaker 4: the bonus. But someone like Michelle Waterson, even though she's aging,

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Speaker 4: there is a girl that comes from a karate background,

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Speaker 4: so he stays on the outside. She's a natural adom weight,

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Speaker 4: She's very fast, she uses front kicks to keep you

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Speaker 4: away keeping So I'm gonna I think Jillian Robinson may

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Speaker 4: have a hard time, you know, clearing that space and

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Speaker 4: getting in on Michelle Waterson without getting tagged. So I

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Speaker 4: could see this fight going to the cards kind of

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Speaker 4: being like a sloppy fight. And I do see some

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Speaker 4: value on Waterson at plus one fifty five. So if

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Speaker 4: that's something that you guys are, if you guys are

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Speaker 4: dog hunters, I know there's some people out there there

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Speaker 4: only bet dogs.

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Speaker 2: You have to really a dog to look at.

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Speaker 4: And if you look at her number, see her number

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Speaker 4: for the three and a half isn't even out yet,

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Speaker 4: but the plus one fifty five, that was the first

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Speaker 4: thing that jumped off the page with me. That is

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Speaker 4: a clear path for her to win this fight. And

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Speaker 4: even if she does get taken down, she's very wiry,

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Speaker 4: She's got pretty decent grapp on herself, and she will

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Speaker 4: get back to her feet. So I could see Julian

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Speaker 4: Robertson maybe bullying her in there, big sister and her

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Speaker 4: in there, but she's got to catch her first, and

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Speaker 4: all rounds start off on the feet, where Michelle Waterson

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Speaker 4: is going to be in a huge advantage. So that's

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Speaker 4: one I would definitely look at. As far as the

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Speaker 4: other ones, they're kind of tough. These are the ones

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Speaker 4: I kind of dive into the props. Yeah, stuff like that.

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Speaker 4: But like I said, for some reason, I mean Wednesday morning,

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Speaker 4: they're still not out.

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Speaker 1: Yet, so Okay, so keep your head on a swivel,

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Speaker 1: is what I'm hearing. Heading into the weekend, hopefully some

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Speaker 1: more prop lines get announced and we can follow Mike

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Speaker 1: over at mad Lab MMA and everything you're doing there

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Speaker 1: to make sure we're up to date with all the

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Speaker 1: content that you're putting out in all the best bets

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Speaker 1: that you can recommend as the week progresses. How else

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Speaker 1: can we best support you, Mike? What else do you

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Speaker 1: have on tap to week and how can we best

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Speaker 1: support you not just for UFC three h three, but

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Speaker 1: for the rest of the UFC fighting year here man.

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Speaker 4: We have a website well, the MADLABMMA dot com. You

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Speaker 4: guys can go over there and check it out. We

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Speaker 4: have weekly, monthly, and yearly memberships. We have a great community,

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Speaker 4: private discords. I do fifteen thousand word breakdowns every week.

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Speaker 4: I do wow private podcasts where we throw events, where

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Speaker 4: I have draftings and FanDuel tournaments where we give away

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Speaker 4: boxes of cards and clothing and stuff like that. We

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Speaker 4: just have a really great community, So if you guys

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Speaker 4: are interested in that, come try us out. You can

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Speaker 4: follow me on Twitter at mad Lab MMA. We also

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Speaker 4: do have a YouTube channel as well, Mad Lab MMA.

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Speaker 4: Everything is kind of Mad Lab MMA, so you can

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Speaker 4: kind of follow me in all those the ways. There's

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Speaker 4: I'm pretty much every platform. You can find me TikTok everywhere.

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Speaker 1: All right, you heard the man, open up a new

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Speaker 1: tab here on YouTube. Go to Mad Lab MMA. Check

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Speaker 1: out their website and all the great content Mike is

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Speaker 1: putting out. Mike, thanks so much for your time as

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Speaker 1: for me. Easiest way to support us here at Betting Pros.

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Speaker 1: Hit that subscribe button, download the bet app, and we'll

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Speaker 1: see you guys next time.

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Speaker 3: Until then, keep it in between. Thank you.

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