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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Kate Moore, CIO City Wealth this morning. Kate does your

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Speaker 2: team of security and analyst at City Group, but claimed

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Speaker 2: we use them all the time, great, great benefit. Do

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Speaker 2: they have any framework of what September thirty earnings look like?

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Speaker 3: I think it's incredibly hard Tom right now to make

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Speaker 3: a call on what third border earnings are going to

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Speaker 3: look like, because, and this is a point I've been

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Speaker 3: making as we were even getting reporting during for second

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Speaker 3: quarterer season, is that there is a growing gap between

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Speaker 3: the winners and users where it's around CERAs round Ai.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, no, igain to continue.

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Speaker 2: I think this is, folks, the absolute heart of the matter,

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Speaker 2: growing direct This is political economics with Kate Moore from Chicago.

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Speaker 2: The answer is, Kate Moore, it's a growing gap of America,

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Speaker 2: a growing gap of society and a growing gap of investment.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Remember Tom, We've talked a lot about in the

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Speaker 3: past you know, K shaped economies, but I'm seeing a

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Speaker 3: very K shaped market at this point in terms of

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Speaker 3: the fundamentals, particularly even as we get these trading rallies,

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Speaker 3: whether it's around small caps or home builders or some

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Speaker 3: of the lower quality and more rate sensitive areas at

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Speaker 3: the market.

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Speaker 6: And what I mean by the K shape is.

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Speaker 3: That you're increasingly seeing companies that have the ability to

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Speaker 3: navigate policy changes and have the ability to navigate you know,

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Speaker 3: sort of weaker end demand in general, because we had

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Speaker 3: a slowing economic trend even before this policy introduction. And

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Speaker 3: those that are adopting AI and becoming more efficient and

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Speaker 3: really focusing on their productivity. And then those that are

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Speaker 3: kind of left behind, maybe they didn't have the cash

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Speaker 3: to make that investment, maybe they were you know, they

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Speaker 3: don't have the right people in place to make those

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Speaker 3: business decisions. But there is a real gap in each

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Speaker 3: industry between the haves and have nots. In theory, this

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Speaker 3: should be a great environment for alpha seeking and active investors.

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Speaker 7: So Kate, it seems if you look at the stock

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Speaker 7: markets making seemingly new highs every day, does that suggest

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Speaker 7: too that the markets said tariff risk is in the

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Speaker 7: rearview mirror. I mean, do you agree with that?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, So here's my problem.

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Speaker 3: I feel like the markets are overly complacent when it

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Speaker 3: comes to terror risks, and then you see these, you know,

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Speaker 3: knee jerk reactions to the PPI data yesterday and big

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Speaker 3: reversals from what had been a very kind of risk

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Speaker 3: on high beta move for the previous two weeks. I

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Speaker 3: think that, you know, there's a lot of room for

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Speaker 3: the market to quiet down. That's another way of saying

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Speaker 3: getting to the bottom end of its trading range. You know,

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Speaker 3: as some of this tariff data comes through, obviously we're

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Speaker 3: going to be watching retail sales and a few quick

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Speaker 3: seconds here to get a sense for how consumers spared

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Speaker 3: over the course of July. I mean that that's going

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Speaker 3: to be important.

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Speaker 6: But more important than.

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Speaker 3: That is really what the trend is in terms of

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Speaker 3: prices and in margins, corporate margins over the next few quarters.

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Speaker 7: How have earning has been so far, in your opinion,

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Speaker 7: looks pretty darning good for the second quarter, came in

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Speaker 7: better than expected it so it looks like Corporate America delivered.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I thought the earning has looked pretty good.

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Speaker 3: The one thing I will say though, is some of

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Speaker 3: these aggregate numbers, whether it's on the sector level or

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Speaker 3: on the index level, do mask some of that discrepancy

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Speaker 3: or that you know, sort of K shaped experience underneath

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Speaker 3: the surface. But one thing I've always said is that

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Speaker 3: you don't want to bet against the resiliency of corporate America.

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Speaker 3: That the decision making to really kind of manage overall expenses,

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Speaker 3: to focus on the business lines that have the greatest

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Speaker 3: potential for growth, and to really kind of dial up

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Speaker 3: and dial down spending when economic conditions necessitated, you know,

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Speaker 3: should not be discounted. This flexibility from US companies, particularly

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Speaker 3: US listed companies, is so much greater than the rest

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Speaker 3: of the world, and it's a reason why I prefer

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Speaker 3: the USK over other regions for the most part.

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Speaker 4: Kate, up, we go in the equity market. We get

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Speaker 4: it right back in one minute. What's it mean?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, the one thing I'm sort of focused

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Speaker 3: on as I'm looking at this data, it may have

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Speaker 3: to remember that, like, while these were visions to June

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Speaker 3: data are excellent, you know, it looks like there was

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Speaker 3: a significant amount of retail activity, that the retail sales

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Speaker 3: data are nominal, So there's a chance that that's capturing

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Speaker 3: some of the increase in prices that we're starting to

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Speaker 3: see in other bits of economic data. So this is

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Speaker 3: not necessarily an indicative like a real acceleration in terms

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Speaker 3: of overall retail spending. And that's what I want to

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Speaker 3: dig into a little bit later this morning as we

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Speaker 3: get off right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the low point of your Sunday morning is you've

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Speaker 2: got to read Andrew Hollandhorst for three hours. What is

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Speaker 2: the city girl belief on the tariff pass through to

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Speaker 2: the consumer?

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Speaker 6: Well, the pass through.

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Speaker 3: We were having a pretty robust debate across city on

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Speaker 3: what the pass through might be. And I think, as

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Speaker 3: we all know, they're the three buckets. You know, what

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Speaker 3: does a supplier do, what is the importer do, and

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Speaker 3: what you know kind of gets passed through to the consumer.

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Speaker 3: And it feels like it's a moving target, depending not

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Speaker 3: just on the industry and the commodity, but on the

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Speaker 3: flexibility of that company and how sort.

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Speaker 6: Of captive their consumer base is.

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Speaker 3: I think we're going to see, you know, fewer companies

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Speaker 3: absorbing the costs, both on the supplier side and on

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Speaker 3: the importer side, and more costs passed through to the consumer.

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Speaker 5: We'll have to see m Thank you so much for

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Speaker 5: learting me.

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Speaker 2: We'll let you get back to an incredibly busy morning

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Speaker 2: at City Group Kate Moore driving all of Citygroup Wealth.

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Speaker 5: Thrilled to have her with us this morning. Stay with us.

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Speaker 5: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We're to go sixty thousand feet right now. Peter's share

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Speaker 2: with us here on a Friday in the summer as

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Speaker 2: we reset for Q three. The end of Q three

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Speaker 2: and into Q four is where Peter the technology juggernaut

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Speaker 2: we're all living and experiencing. Do you assume that academy

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Speaker 2: securities that we're just going to have the haves get

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Speaker 2: heavier and the have nots get have not here I

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Speaker 2: mean a greater divide within society.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: Unfortunately, you know, we keep looking at and I really

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Speaker 8: am from a market standpoint, I really want to buy

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Speaker 8: the Russell two thousand right waiting for the opportunity where

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Speaker 8: the small caps and midcaps can outperform. And yet you

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Speaker 8: look at it, the story is really still is very

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Speaker 8: AI driven. It's the spending on AI, it's the electricity

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Speaker 8: generation that needs to be done so that entire industry

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Speaker 8: is like doing extremely well.

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Speaker 5: That's where the growth is.

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Speaker 8: And away from that, I think the impact of tariffs

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Speaker 8: are impacting small and mid sized companies. Just feel there's

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Speaker 8: an overall weight on the economy from that.

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Speaker 2: But somebody live in three towns outside Cincinnati right now

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Speaker 2: and they're seeing, you know, the reds are going down

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Speaker 2: at Flames.

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Speaker 5: I mean, you know, this is not happening. What the

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Speaker 5: poets are doing.

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Speaker 2: Well, somebody out of a job or a his daughters

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Speaker 2: out of a job outside Cincinnati.

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Speaker 5: They don't give a damn about AI. And to me,

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Speaker 5: it's just a further I mean, you're brilliant at this.

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Speaker 4: It's a further severance of society.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: And you know, I think part of the reason I'm

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Speaker 8: slightly nervous, more maybe nervous than most guests about the

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Speaker 8: economy is I'm worried about the job situation. I'm particularly

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Speaker 8: worried about, you know, the recent college graduate situation right,

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Speaker 8: the unemployment rate seems to be fairly high. They're not

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Speaker 8: getting jobs. I look at law school applications, they're skyrocketing.

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Speaker 8: That to me is another sign that jobs are very tough,

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Speaker 8: especially for the college graduates. And those are the people

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Speaker 8: I think who currently are being displaced by AI. Right.

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Speaker 5: That's people are.

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Speaker 8: Comfortable kind of giving those sorts of assignments to AI,

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Speaker 8: and you know, they're not going to let big decisions

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Speaker 8: being made, but they're letting some of that work be done.

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Speaker 8: And I'm not sure what that does for that job

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Speaker 8: market opportunity. I'm not sure what that does for a

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Speaker 8: future where those people supposed to get those jobs that

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Speaker 8: lead them into management and things like that over time.

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Speaker 8: So some of this I think we're getting close probably

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Speaker 8: you know, six months a year away. There's going to

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Speaker 8: be a little bit of pushback on AI, the deployment

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Speaker 8: and you know, you keep looking at the cost of

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Speaker 8: electricity rising, that's going to be an issue.

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Speaker 7: Inflation also an issue for these markets for this Futter reserve.

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Speaker 7: It got's inflation data this week. Uh, the brucer pricing

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Speaker 7: next is yesterday, I think really got people's attention. What

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Speaker 7: did you make of that? And some of the cooler

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Speaker 7: CPI with data we got earlier.

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Speaker 5: You know, I always ignore a little bit PPI.

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Speaker 8: To me, that's always been kind of a tertiary data point,

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Speaker 8: and it's always hard to see that it actually ever

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Speaker 8: follows through into true inflation. So it was a bit disturbing,

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Speaker 8: but nothing you know, to alarm me. I still think

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Speaker 8: goods inflation is going to be there a little bit

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Speaker 8: away from that, though, I think, if I'm right, in

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Speaker 8: the economy slowing, you've seen some pressure on services inflation,

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Speaker 8: and to be honest, even in CPI, which was somewhat cool,

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Speaker 8: I think it's even overstated there because we continue to

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Speaker 8: use owner's equivalent.

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Speaker 5: Rent as the metric.

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Speaker 8: I'm not sure why we won't adopt Cleveland has a

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Speaker 8: real time you know, rentric metric, you know Zillow. And

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Speaker 8: to me, the one thing this comes to back to

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Speaker 8: so much of our data. There is so much real time,

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Speaker 8: reasonably accurate information out there, and we still tend to

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Speaker 8: rely on surveys and these old methodologies. We have to

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Speaker 8: revamp that. So I think CPI is overstated. So I

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Speaker 8: think the FED will be in position to cut three

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Speaker 8: times this year because jobs are going to weaken enough,

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Speaker 8: and inflation is going to remain contained.

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Speaker 7: Given that backdrop, can this market expand out the breadth

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Speaker 7: of this market here, which has been so concentrated, Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I think it can.

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Speaker 8: And to me, I think the real growth is going

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Speaker 8: to have to come from what we've been calling national

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Speaker 8: production for national security. And I think last time I

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Speaker 8: was on, we talked about the Department Defense made the

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Speaker 8: investment in MP. Now we're hearing potentially the government's going

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Speaker 8: to make an investment in Intel. And actually I've got

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Speaker 8: admit I'm an owner of Intel, so that's a full disclosure.

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Speaker 8: But on those things, I think, right this has to

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Speaker 8: come national production for national security, and this administration is

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Speaker 8: going to do it through investment. They're not just going

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Speaker 8: to give subsidies. They're not because they want the American

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Speaker 8: citizen to benefit.

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Speaker 6: Can I ask a.

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Speaker 2: Stupid question in our new capitalism, It's Friday stupid question, right?

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Speaker 2: Why don't they make an investment in Microsoft?

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Speaker 5: Why buy a dog?

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Speaker 4: I mean, if the President Trump wants to attach himself

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Speaker 4: to our technological superiority.

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Speaker 8: By two percent of Microsoft, you know, And I think

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Speaker 8: what we're really looking I'll come back to national production

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Speaker 8: for national security. So I think someone in the administration

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Speaker 8: is taking time. What do we need to be producing

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Speaker 8: here to be safe. It's going to include pharma, biochemical

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Speaker 8: or bio biotech, those sorts of industries. Look for investments

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Speaker 8: there because those are things we want to be producing

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Speaker 8: we need to do domestically. Chips is all over this, right,

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Speaker 8: and Intel's kind of the cheapest way to get involved

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Speaker 8: in it, like.

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Speaker 4: Tiss is in Norway.

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Speaker 2: I'll give you in Singapore the sovereign Wealth fun I mean,

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Speaker 2: I had an office once in Boston near the Kuwait Authority.

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Speaker 4: Whatever, I'd get a sovereign wealth fund. That's not what

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Speaker 4: we're talking about, Peter, right.

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Speaker 8: No, I think this is much more strategic, right. I

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Speaker 8: think again, the deals we are looking for rarerst critical minerals,

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Speaker 8: the processing, refining, and I think this is meant to

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Speaker 8: boost things along.

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Speaker 5: It also ties in very nicely for.

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Speaker 8: These companies with the big beautiful bill where you get

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Speaker 8: accelerated depreciation. So if you can get this influx of

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Speaker 8: money and excitement because the US government's involved, presumably the

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Speaker 8: US governments can be buying from the They've got that

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Speaker 8: impetus to grow and build. And I think It's going

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Speaker 8: to be targeted though, around the industries that we are

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Speaker 8: behind and that we need to be doing domestically to

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Speaker 8: compete with China economically.

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Speaker 7: Should investors, should the market be paying attention to what

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Speaker 7: happens today in Alaska?

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Speaker 5: I think a little bit.

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Speaker 8: In the end, I think all this probably leads to is,

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Speaker 8: you know, I think your prior guest is, you know,

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Speaker 8: miss Baker did a great job discussing that normally, you know,

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Speaker 8: these presidents and leaders only meet when there's a deal

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Speaker 8: already laid out.

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Speaker 5: You know, this could go any which way.

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Speaker 8: Our suspect at Academy security is what we suspect will

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Speaker 8: come out of this is a little bit of pushback

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Speaker 8: on Putin and finally a little bit more of this

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Speaker 8: stick because if you think about in the last few weeks,

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Speaker 8: the President has talked a lot more about going after

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Speaker 8: the sanctions again, re upping them. They've pushed on India,

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Speaker 8: and they've also now find a way to get weapons

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Speaker 8: to Ukraine that's palatable to this administration. Right, we sell

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Speaker 8: them to europeasses them Moudt Ukraine. This administration seems fine

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Speaker 8: with that. Phuda needs to feel the stick, I think

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Speaker 8: to really cave on anything.

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Speaker 4: I haven't seeing the new barons for tomorrow, Pierce sheer barons.

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Speaker 5: Let's pretend he's on page eleven.

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Speaker 4: Can you buy that Meg's seven and barons tomorrow.

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Speaker 8: I'm trying to not buy that. I'm trying to buy

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Speaker 8: the other things. I'm looking for, these new growth stories.

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Speaker 8: I think, you know electricity, and this is one of

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Speaker 8: my key things. I'm still you know, Tom, you might

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Speaker 8: be iilthy of this as yourself. Well, when I think energy,

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Speaker 8: I used to think oil, right, energy and oil equated.

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Speaker 8: You know, It's how it's always been, can he It's

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Speaker 8: energy equals electricity. You look at things like China's doing

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Speaker 8: in terms of their nuclear power plants in the Saudia's

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Speaker 8: on solar. I think we have a huge opportunity in

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Speaker 8: the electricity space and it's going to drive a lot

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Speaker 8: of production, and it's so necessary to keep the AI

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Speaker 8: game afloat.

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Speaker 4: Peter, in this room, when we think energy, we think uncrustables.

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Speaker 5: I did hear that the other day. It's better. Thank

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Speaker 5: you for listening, Peter Share. We are thrilled to have

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Speaker 5: Peter Share with us this morning. Thank you so much.

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Speaker 5: With academy, I'm security, Stay with us. More from Bloomberg

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Speaker 5: Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Akindi Krabo Retiker a right to the console on Foreign

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Speaker 2: Relations adjunct Senior fellow. We're thrilled she could catch up

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Speaker 2: with us on Trump Putin as well. Hiding within your

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Speaker 2: note and I think this is the embarrassing question. Does

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Speaker 2: Putin want to cease fire?

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Speaker 9: I think that he absolutely does not want to cease fire.

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Speaker 9: And I would say, you know, I think it's a

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Speaker 9: win for Putin to actually get this meeting in the

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Speaker 9: first place with President Trump in Alaska of all places.

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Speaker 9: But Putin thinks he's winning the war right now and

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Speaker 9: that time is on his side. So I don't think

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Speaker 9: he's altered any of his demands. I don't think he's

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Speaker 9: negotiating in good faith. And why would he declare that

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Speaker 9: he would have that he would support a ceasefire when

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Speaker 9: the only way that he will actually agree to that

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Speaker 9: is on terms that neither Ukraine nor Europeans would agree to.

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Speaker 7: So what is a quote unquote win for President Trump

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Speaker 7: here in this meeting in Alaska?

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Speaker 9: So I think a win would be I think what

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Speaker 9: President Trump is looking to do is to arrange that

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Speaker 9: second meeting with with Putin and with Zelenski, so that

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Speaker 9: trilateral meeting, which you know President Trump has said and

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Speaker 9: dangled that it could be as early as this weekend

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Speaker 9: and in Alaska.

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Speaker 7: But I do not think that.

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Speaker 9: I do not think that that the Ukrainians have high

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Speaker 9: hopes in that President Putin will actually agree to meet Zelenski.

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Speaker 6: He has not done so in the past.

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Speaker 7: What do we what do we know about the I

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Speaker 7: don't know the discussions that President Trump president Zelensky had

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Speaker 7: with European Union leaders earlier this week. Do we know

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Speaker 7: what was agreed upon there at all?

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Speaker 9: Well, you know, I think that the Europeans made very

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Speaker 9: clear what their you know, what their position is on

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Speaker 9: on on Ukraine and what Ukraine's physician is. I think

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Speaker 9: that they want the justin lasting peace, and they want

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Speaker 9: respect for international law and the principles of independence and sovereignty.

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Speaker 9: And this is one of the big sticking points a

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Speaker 9: Ukraine that can defend itself effectively. And one of the

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Speaker 9: key asks of President Putin is a demilitarized Ukraine. The

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Speaker 9: Ukraine has in the meantime been building up some really

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Speaker 9: both indigenous military capacity that is cutting edge.

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Speaker 6: It was the one of the key.

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Speaker 9: Pillars of the Soviet defense industrial economy, so they actually

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Speaker 9: have the expertise the capability. Having a militarized Ukraine is

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Speaker 9: really foundational for Ukraine to defend itself.

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Speaker 2: Explain the economic reality of the map, Heidi, which you

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Speaker 2: have memorized and Paul and I can't pronounce it, but

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Speaker 2: basically eastern Ukraine from the north, down to the south

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Speaker 2: and down to the Black Sea and of course down

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Speaker 2: below that crimea of a decade ago. What's the economic

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Speaker 2: advantage of mister Putin to own that territory.

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Speaker 9: Well, I mean it's it's obviously resource rich, and I

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Speaker 9: I believe not only not only is it a it's

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Speaker 9: a forward it's a forward base for additional expansion. I

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Speaker 9: don't think that that President Putin really has in the

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Speaker 9: next you know, in between now and when he leaves

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Speaker 9: the position as as President of Russia, that he is

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Speaker 9: going to stop the imperi the sort of expansion of

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Speaker 9: how he sees imperial Russia, and so I don't I

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Speaker 9: don't believe that.

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Speaker 6: I think it's it would be.

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Speaker 5: A win.

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Speaker 9: For many reasons that are economic, rare Earth's industrial capacity,

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Speaker 9: a lot of the a lot of the access to

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Speaker 9: the Black Sea that comes with with with the with

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Speaker 9: the control of that territory. It's really, it really was

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Speaker 9: a powerhouse for the economy. I think a lot of

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Speaker 9: it's been destroyedoid over the past couple of years. But

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Speaker 9: in terms of what Putin wants, I think it's both

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Speaker 9: power as projection and it's economic.

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Speaker 7: What leverage, if any does the does President Trump have

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Speaker 7: at this negotiation today? How do you think that lays out?

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Speaker 9: So I think that it's it's important for President Trump

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Speaker 9: to make sure that he has the backing of the

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Speaker 9: Europeans and the Ukrainians. I don't know the leverage that

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Speaker 9: he has both carrots and sticks. The ability to actually

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Speaker 9: impose greater pain through sanctioning. For example, for example, the

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Speaker 9: dark shadow fleets of oil tankers that are that are

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Speaker 9: prolific in actually exporting Russian oil right now would be meaningful.

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Speaker 9: So I think that there are sticks, there are also

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Speaker 9: carrots that he's looking to put on the table.

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Speaker 5: I thank you for the brief.

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Speaker 2: Heidi Kramer, writing writing for the Writing for Foreign Affairs

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Speaker 2: should say in the Council on Foreign Relations.

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Speaker 5: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us

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Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 4: Jennifer Lee one of the toughest jobs on Global Wall Street.

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Speaker 2: She has to put up with Ian Lincoln and Brian

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Speaker 2: Belski at the same point, and she has the single

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Speaker 2: best sentence in a research report of the week.

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Speaker 5: Here's Jennifer Lee. I quote what now, question Mark? We wait,

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Speaker 5: We watch Jennifer poetry. It's like a haiku. It's so

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Speaker 5: so true.

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Speaker 2: We wait and we watch. What are you watching? To

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Speaker 2: unfold the mystery of the back half of twenty twenty five?

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Speaker 6: Well, good morning, and thank you very much for having

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Speaker 6: me on. And just quickly about the airline breakfasts. It's

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Speaker 6: kind of hard to screw up yogurt. I think that's

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Speaker 6: basically what I get.

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Speaker 10: Every every time I'm on an early.

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Speaker 6: Morning flight.

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Speaker 10: Watching the data watching. I think inflation is probably like

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Speaker 10: the biggest report right now to keep an eye on.

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Speaker 10: But of course, this morning's retail sales numbers were also

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Speaker 10: very interesting, and I was very torn. I gotta tell

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Speaker 10: you this, I was very torn. I was like, do

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Speaker 10: I want a strong number to signify, you know, that

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Speaker 10: the US eclimate remains resilient, or do I want a

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Speaker 10: weak number because it shows that the FED is going

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Speaker 10: to have to start cutting rates starting next month and

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Speaker 10: by how much it's always torn?

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Speaker 6: But you know, I'm kind of lying.

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Speaker 10: I kind of lean toward, you know, I want a

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Speaker 10: stronger economy, more resilient economy. And the retail sales numbers

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Speaker 10: approved that it wasn't wall to wall strength. We saw

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Speaker 10: some pullback and play in things like eating out, dining out,

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Speaker 10: for example, which is something I like to keep an

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Speaker 10: eye on all the time. But there's more spending on

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Speaker 10: things like sporting goods and on clothing and things like that.

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Speaker 10: So cannot write off the US consumer just yet. You know,

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Speaker 10: we should almost never write right off the US consumer.

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Speaker 10: But it shows that again, the US economy is still

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Speaker 10: holding up there. The backward revisions, by the way, show

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Speaker 10: that there's a lot more momentum coming in into the

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Speaker 10: second half. But what happens at this point on with

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Speaker 10: signs of higher inflation bubbling, You know, this is where

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Speaker 10: everything hits the fan.

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Speaker 5: My summary, Paul is simple, what now we wait? Watch exactly?

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Speaker 7: So, Jennifer, what do you think or how do you

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Speaker 7: think the FED interpreted this week's inflation data in today's

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Speaker 7: retail sales? How do you think that may or may

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Speaker 7: not affect kind of what they do in September.

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Speaker 6: I think it potentially makes them dig in their heels

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Speaker 6: a little bit.

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Speaker 10: And you know, there is talk about a fifty basis

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Speaker 10: point cut, perhaps maybe from just one individual with the

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Speaker 10: initials s B, but I think the inflation reports this

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Speaker 10: week sort of put that under the put that on

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Speaker 10: the side, at least.

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Speaker 6: Off the table for now. On twenty five basis places.

442
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 10: Still looks like the way we looks like what we're

443
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Speaker 10: going to be seeing come come the next meeting in September.

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00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 6: Again, we still have I mean, we just had like

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Speaker 6: the two pretty.

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Speaker 10: Scary you know, inflation reports this week for July, but

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00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 10: we still have And then of course this morning is

448
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:24,439
Speaker 10: hotter than expected import price report that you've already mentioned.

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00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 10: So we've got one of each, by the way, one

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00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 10: more CPI, one more PPI, one more import.

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Speaker 6: Price report before the September seventeenth PEN meeting.

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Speaker 10: We also have a couple of ISM surveys and I

453
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:35,920
Speaker 10: always love to read those because I like to see

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00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,400
Speaker 10: what the respondents of there are doing or what they're

455
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Speaker 10: seeing in terms of prices. And those are like the

456
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 10: boots on the ground, right, It's not these numbers that

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Speaker 10: are being calculated in whatever format and whatever fashion. These

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Speaker 10: are actually talking to the people out there who are

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Speaker 10: making their purchases, on actual purchasing managers, and we wanted

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Speaker 10: to see what they are seeing out there.

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Speaker 7: What do you make of the US labor market here?

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Speaker 7: That was the discussion point a week ago. This week's

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Speaker 7: been all about inflation. Last week was about labor. What's

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00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 7: your on the guest labor market?

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00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 10: So this is I mean, obviously the last report was

466
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 10: a little shocking showing like slowing demand, but there is

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00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,159
Speaker 10: still demand for jobs and we still have you know,

468
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 10: well over seven million jobs job openings out there across

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00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,680
Speaker 10: the country, so you know, it depends on what sector

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00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 10: we're talking about, but clearly the demand is slowing. But

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00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 10: it's also interesting, just given from what we've seen from

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00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 10: some of these surveys, from what some of the hiring

473
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,679
Speaker 10: managers have been saying, you know, they're basically holding off

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Speaker 10: to see what happens with the economy, what happens with tariffs.

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00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 10: Is this trade war worth trying to going to continue

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Speaker 10: dragging on or not. So that's going to determine whether

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Speaker 10: not they're going to be starting to get rid of

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Speaker 10: people or if they're going to lay people off or hire.

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Speaker 10: Everyone is on hold right now until there is more clarity.

480
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,160
Speaker 10: We have a little bit more clarity now, but there's

481
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 10: still not one hundred percent. It's still a little fussy

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Speaker 10: to short of.

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Speaker 5: Visit Jennifer Lee. I promise I will wait and I

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Speaker 5: will watch.

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Speaker 2: Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist, beam A Capital Markets.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple's Spotify

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00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:05,000
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