1
00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:12,920
Speaker 2: It is good all right. Here we go throwing him

3
00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:18,599
Speaker 2: Joe spectacular. We're saying it's a catch tout. We see

4
00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:22,600
Speaker 2: most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to wind.

5
00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:26,119
Speaker 2: That's incredible, big bank, small banks.

6
00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:27,200
Speaker 3: I like to make money.

7
00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:34,400
Speaker 2: All right, This is the ultimate Kaba and we are

8
00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:35,080
Speaker 2: going away.

9
00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:41,120
Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This is your NFL

10
00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:44,879
Speaker 4: Awards betting preview. Today we'll be looking at all of

11
00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,800
Speaker 4: our favorite beats and long shots for all the big ones, MVP,

12
00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,320
Speaker 4: Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, all the

13
00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:54,080
Speaker 4: good stuff. So joining me today is mean Palmer rahem,

14
00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:54,920
Speaker 4: how you doing today?

15
00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:57,680
Speaker 2: I'm doing good. Life is good man. We're a couple

16
00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:00,120
Speaker 2: of sun days away from you know, being at but

17
00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,360
Speaker 2: a bit large amounts of money on NFL games, so

18
00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:04,600
Speaker 2: I can't complain.

19
00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:06,160
Speaker 1: Man, it feels good.

20
00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:09,039
Speaker 4: It feels good to have this little like two week

21
00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,920
Speaker 4: off season between NFL and NBA. It's been nice to

22
00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,080
Speaker 4: have a little bit of a break. But I'm excited

23
00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:16,720
Speaker 4: for the games. We're gonna do all of our NFL

24
00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,280
Speaker 4: awards for the season. But before we jump in, just

25
00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,400
Speaker 4: want to make sure our listeners know exciting note coming

26
00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:25,040
Speaker 4: up next week. First thing on the new week right

27
00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,720
Speaker 4: here on Action Network Podcast, we're gonna have our very

28
00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:34,000
Speaker 4: robust AFC and NFC win total episodes. Can't wait for those.

29
00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,320
Speaker 4: I'll be listening to those multiple times. Those will feature Stocky,

30
00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,560
Speaker 4: Chris Raybond, and Sean Kerner best in the business, so

31
00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:41,920
Speaker 4: make sure to stay tuned.

32
00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:43,200
Speaker 1: For that and today.

33
00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,200
Speaker 4: As always, all of our odds will come from bet MGM,

34
00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:49,920
Speaker 4: the official odds provider of the Action Network Podcast. So

35
00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,080
Speaker 4: we're gonna start out with the big one at the top, MVP.

36
00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:54,200
Speaker 4: That's the one that we like to talk about all year.

37
00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,320
Speaker 4: It's the narrative based one that we just love to

38
00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,240
Speaker 4: come up with a new story every week. The couple

39
00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,400
Speaker 4: favorites out the top. We'll get to the favorite favorite

40
00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,480
Speaker 4: in a second. But rahim last year, you were in

41
00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,680
Speaker 4: early on the man who is the second favorite right now,

42
00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,480
Speaker 4: who we thought might be hosting Jeopardy around this time,

43
00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:15,200
Speaker 4: but looks like he'll be back on the Packers. Aaron

44
00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,000
Speaker 4: Rodgers right now is at plus eleven hundred as the

45
00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:18,760
Speaker 4: second favorite.

46
00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:20,640
Speaker 1: Are you back on Rodgers again this season?

47
00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:23,800
Speaker 2: You know, one of the reasons why I liked Aaron

48
00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:27,600
Speaker 2: Rodgers last year is because the change in the playoff format,

49
00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:29,799
Speaker 2: they only gave a boy to the best team in

50
00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,519
Speaker 2: each conference, so there weren't two bots in the past.

51
00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:34,240
Speaker 2: Getting one of those boys, it kind of puts you

52
00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,440
Speaker 2: in a position to where if you're a quarterback on

53
00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:38,040
Speaker 2: one of those teams that got to buy you had

54
00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,120
Speaker 2: a great chance of actually winning the MVP. You know,

55
00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,520
Speaker 2: I looked at the Packers' schedule last year. The NFC

56
00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,320
Speaker 2: North was hard. You know, you're a Minnesota Vikings fan.

57
00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:49,840
Speaker 2: You saw that they completely turned over that secondary and

58
00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:51,960
Speaker 2: it was pretty obvious that you know, they weren't going

59
00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,200
Speaker 2: to be good. The Lions were the Lions and the

60
00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:56,520
Speaker 2: Bears were the Bears. The best way to get to

61
00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:58,280
Speaker 2: the playoffs is to be able to beat up on

62
00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:00,160
Speaker 2: your division, and that's what they were able to do

63
00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:02,080
Speaker 2: over the last couple of years. But I think the

64
00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:04,799
Speaker 2: offense takes a small step back this year. I think

65
00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,440
Speaker 2: he got a really tough schedule, specifically towards the end

66
00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:09,200
Speaker 2: of the year when they played Baltimore and they play

67
00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,480
Speaker 2: Kansas City. So I'm out on them this year.

68
00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:13,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm out on Rodgers as well.

69
00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:15,359
Speaker 4: That's just not a bet that I want to make

70
00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,120
Speaker 4: something smells off a little bit to me. You know,

71
00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,520
Speaker 4: with all the drama this offseason, it's just hard for

72
00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:23,240
Speaker 4: me to believe that he's just going to step back

73
00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,120
Speaker 4: in the locker room and everything's just gonna be great.

74
00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:25,320
Speaker 2: Now.

75
00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:27,960
Speaker 4: I just feel like that there's gonna be some residual

76
00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:30,120
Speaker 4: drama that's going to carry out. And the other thing too.

77
00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:32,560
Speaker 4: We just don't see a lot of back to back

78
00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:36,560
Speaker 4: MVPs in the NFL. Only since Brett Farv won it

79
00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:38,840
Speaker 4: three times in a row in the late nineties. Peyton

80
00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,320
Speaker 4: Manning is the only player that has gone back to

81
00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,280
Speaker 4: back MVP. So it's just, you know, we get bored,

82
00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:47,400
Speaker 4: Voters get bored. It's a narrative thing. We want someone new.

83
00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,760
Speaker 4: We see it in every sport. So I definitely don't

84
00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,400
Speaker 4: like the odds on Rodgers, So that brings us. Then,

85
00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,560
Speaker 4: I guess to the other the actual favorite. Patrick Mahomes

86
00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,240
Speaker 4: should be the favorite. I think we all agree he's great.

87
00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,480
Speaker 4: He's at plus now at bet MGM, So how do

88
00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:04,200
Speaker 4: we feel about Mahomes? Is that worth a play?

89
00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,600
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna personally play it just because I mean,

90
00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:10,280
Speaker 2: I think it's fairly priced. He's the favorite. I mean,

91
00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:14,000
Speaker 2: Kansas City. They they rebuilt their offensive line, they trained,

92
00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:18,400
Speaker 2: they traded for Orlando Brown from Baltimore. This offensive line

93
00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,760
Speaker 2: is gonna be able to protect Mahomes, and you know,

94
00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,640
Speaker 2: he's already proven that he could dominate without you know,

95
00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:27,480
Speaker 2: a decent offensive line. Now, I do think they need

96
00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,520
Speaker 2: a little bit more help when the wide receiver. I

97
00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:32,599
Speaker 2: like Hartman and some of those other guys, But I mean,

98
00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,880
Speaker 2: losing Sammy Watkins is gonna hurt. They'll want to tie

99
00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:38,360
Speaker 2: my money up for you know, four or five, six,

100
00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,920
Speaker 2: seven months or whatever. I want to go after something

101
00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:41,520
Speaker 2: longer than that.

102
00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:42,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, let's be real.

103
00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:45,640
Speaker 4: He was gonna lose Sammy Watkins by about week three anyways,

104
00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,240
Speaker 4: because that's just how Sammuel likes to role. So I

105
00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:50,920
Speaker 4: don't know, he's still got Travis Kelsey, He's still got

106
00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,880
Speaker 4: Tyreek Hill. You know, really like what we forget that,

107
00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,240
Speaker 4: Like last season, they had a bunch of injuries, they

108
00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,040
Speaker 4: had the old line stuff. Mahomes was playing through some injuries,

109
00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:02,000
Speaker 4: and it's still wor rate and still clabberate everyone, even

110
00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,280
Speaker 4: though it was like a huge step down from last year.

111
00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,400
Speaker 4: That said I basically agree with you, like I think

112
00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,360
Speaker 4: Mahomes absolutely is the favorite. I think he's a very

113
00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:13,719
Speaker 4: clear favorite. I think he's priced about right. But we

114
00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,320
Speaker 4: also all know that he's the best player in football.

115
00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:18,919
Speaker 4: We all know he's the favorite. What could happen the

116
00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:20,760
Speaker 4: first few weeks of the season for you to lose

117
00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,120
Speaker 4: the chance to bet him at this number. It's not

118
00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:24,479
Speaker 4: like he's going to come out and put up like

119
00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:27,400
Speaker 4: eight touchdowns the first game and then it's suddenly the

120
00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:30,920
Speaker 4: line goes crazy. In fact, the first three weeks, Mahomes

121
00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:34,080
Speaker 4: plays the Browns, at the Ravens, and the Chargers. Those

122
00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:36,000
Speaker 4: are three tough teams. Those are three teams that I

123
00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:37,960
Speaker 4: think are definitely in the playoff hunt this year.

124
00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:39,159
Speaker 1: The Chiefs could.

125
00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:40,800
Speaker 4: Lose a game, they could lose two of those games,

126
00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:42,600
Speaker 4: and if they do that, now you're actually getting a

127
00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,240
Speaker 4: better price on Mahomes because you know that's how the

128
00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:47,920
Speaker 4: lines are moving. So not much to gain on betting

129
00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,000
Speaker 4: Mahomes right now if you want to play him.

130
00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:50,920
Speaker 1: I don't blame.

131
00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:54,520
Speaker 4: It, but wait, because he could get hurt, or Tyreek

132
00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:56,400
Speaker 4: or Kelsey could get hurt. There are a lot of

133
00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,159
Speaker 4: things that could make his chances of winning get worse.

134
00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:01,479
Speaker 4: And I really don't know what can make the odds

135
00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:04,960
Speaker 4: move in a way that hurts you by waiting until

136
00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,039
Speaker 4: October or even middle of a month or so. So

137
00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:10,839
Speaker 4: let's move a little further down the list. I think

138
00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,039
Speaker 4: we all know MVP these days pretty much goes to

139
00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,880
Speaker 4: quarterback raheem. Can you tell me the last non quarterback

140
00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:18,800
Speaker 4: who won MVP.

141
00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,320
Speaker 2: It's Adrian Peterson and I think it was in twoy

142
00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:23,120
Speaker 2: and twelve.

143
00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:25,599
Speaker 1: You got it, my guy, Adrian.

144
00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,280
Speaker 4: Last one before that was Ladanian Tomlinson in two thousand

145
00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:32,040
Speaker 4: and six. So that means in a decade and a

146
00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:34,520
Speaker 4: half we've had one non quarterback MVP.

147
00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:36,880
Speaker 1: You gotta take a quarterback here.

148
00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,720
Speaker 4: A running back basically has to like shatter records and

149
00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,320
Speaker 4: put up an all time season in order to be

150
00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:44,919
Speaker 4: able to be the MVPs.

151
00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:48,640
Speaker 2: I want to specify this. It's twenty twenty one, and

152
00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:52,360
Speaker 2: the last twelve years we had two running backs run

153
00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:56,640
Speaker 2: for two thousand yards Chris Johnson and Derrick Henry. Neither

154
00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,479
Speaker 2: of them won it. Adrian Peterson rushed for two thousand yards.

155
00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,680
Speaker 2: He So, I mean that tells you how hard it

156
00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:04,960
Speaker 2: is for non quarterback. I mean thirteen out of the

157
00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:08,480
Speaker 2: last fourteen MVPs have gorn to quarterbacks, and it's eighth

158
00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:12,840
Speaker 2: street since Adrian Peterson. These quarterbacks average thirteen wins. You

159
00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,400
Speaker 2: essentially have to be a Super Bowl contender.

160
00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:17,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think that it's important to know that,

161
00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:19,680
Speaker 4: like when you when you're looking at all these awards,

162
00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,280
Speaker 4: and we'll do this for the other awards too a

163
00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,920
Speaker 4: little bit, but what is the profile of an MVP,

164
00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:27,360
Speaker 4: Because it's not just oh, this guy's really good. It's

165
00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:30,080
Speaker 4: definitely not who's the best fantasy player who had the

166
00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,880
Speaker 4: best stats, Like, that's not how this award comes out.

167
00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,600
Speaker 4: It almost always comes out to you know. It used

168
00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:37,080
Speaker 4: to be that you had to be one of those

169
00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:39,280
Speaker 4: two one of those top two seeds in your conference.

170
00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:41,000
Speaker 4: If you got the bye week, then you and if

171
00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,240
Speaker 4: you were the quarterback on a bye week team, then

172
00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,880
Speaker 4: you were probably an MVP favorite, you know, except for

173
00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:47,880
Speaker 4: like one of those teams was like the Bears, so

174
00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:49,600
Speaker 4: then they didn't have a quarterback, and then there was

175
00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:51,920
Speaker 4: three other MVP favorites and that you just picked one

176
00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,160
Speaker 4: of them. Now there's only two bye weeks, so it's

177
00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:56,840
Speaker 4: a little trickier, and I don't think it's only limited

178
00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,600
Speaker 4: to just those two teams. But that's why Mahomes is

179
00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,160
Speaker 4: a favorite, That's why Rodgers is a favorite. So at

180
00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:04,600
Speaker 4: bet MGM right now, there is a tier that I think,

181
00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:07,480
Speaker 4: there's a tier of top twelve guys that basically bet

182
00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:11,160
Speaker 4: MGM is telling us we got twelve possible MVP winners.

183
00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:14,440
Speaker 4: Anyone beyond that we're calling a long shot. Derrick Henry

184
00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:18,200
Speaker 4: right now is the lowest rated non quarterback on the board.

185
00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:21,320
Speaker 4: He's at plus five thousand, so fifty to one for

186
00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,400
Speaker 4: anybody that's not a quarterback. Here are the twelve names

187
00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,520
Speaker 4: that have lower odds right now than Derrick Henry. So

188
00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,320
Speaker 4: where he said Mahomes and Rogers, here are the next ten,

189
00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:34,760
Speaker 4: in order from increasing odds. We got Josh Allen, Tom Brady,

190
00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:38,280
Speaker 4: Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, who won MVP.

191
00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:40,199
Speaker 1: Obviously Brady has as well.

192
00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:45,520
Speaker 4: Matt Stafford, Russell Wilson, Justin, Herbert Kyler, Murray, Ryan Tannehill,

193
00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:49,320
Speaker 4: and Baker Mayfield. So basically that's our MVP field this

194
00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:53,280
Speaker 4: year barring something crazy. So Raheem, you're not betting Rogers,

195
00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:56,120
Speaker 4: You're not betting Mahomes. Who do you like in this tier?

196
00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:57,880
Speaker 4: This seems like the place where you're going to make

197
00:08:57,880 --> 00:08:58,840
Speaker 4: your bet this year.

198
00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:02,920
Speaker 2: My MVP pick. And I know it sounds probably crazy,

199
00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:06,240
Speaker 2: but I like Dak Prescott really. Okay, tell me about Doc.

200
00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,880
Speaker 2: I'm not really that high on the Cowboys, but the

201
00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:13,800
Speaker 2: thing with Dak is that he's gonna be solely responsible

202
00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:17,080
Speaker 2: for their success, so he has a bevy of weapons

203
00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,120
Speaker 2: at his disposed. I mean, you look at c d Land,

204
00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:23,240
Speaker 2: you look at Ezekiel Elliott, you look at Amari Cooper,

205
00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:26,720
Speaker 2: and then now the offensive line is gonna be healthy,

206
00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:29,040
Speaker 2: which they weren't last year. They're gonna welcome the return

207
00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:33,160
Speaker 2: of Tyron Smith, Lealel Collins, Zach Martin. This guy was

208
00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:35,800
Speaker 2: on pace to throw for six thousand, seven hundred and

209
00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:39,360
Speaker 2: sixty yards last season. We know the defense isn't that good.

210
00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:43,120
Speaker 2: The NFC East really isn't good. I mean, I'm pretty

211
00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:45,960
Speaker 2: high on the Washington football team, but I mean, we're

212
00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:49,000
Speaker 2: not expecting much from the Eagles. We're not expecting anything

213
00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:52,120
Speaker 2: from the Giants. So you know, when I speak from

214
00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,520
Speaker 2: that perspective, in the same way that I thought about

215
00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:58,400
Speaker 2: Rogers last year beating up on the NFC North, I

216
00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:00,439
Speaker 2: think this is a division at the Cowboy can beat

217
00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,280
Speaker 2: up on and then you know. So one of the

218
00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:06,120
Speaker 2: things I like to do before every season, and I'm

219
00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:08,840
Speaker 2: gonna write an article about this, is that I like

220
00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:13,800
Speaker 2: to look at season win totals compare each team and

221
00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:16,960
Speaker 2: who they play. The Cowboys have the eighth easiest schedule

222
00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:20,720
Speaker 2: according to Vegas win tols. The Cowboys if they if

223
00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:23,040
Speaker 2: Dak could put up the season that he had last year,

224
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,800
Speaker 2: and you know, they could actually win some games. I

225
00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,800
Speaker 2: think he's live at plus sixteen hundred, so that that's

226
00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:29,800
Speaker 2: a shot that I want to take.

227
00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:33,000
Speaker 4: So that one's interesting to me. Here's the reason why

228
00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,240
Speaker 4: I would hesitate to bet on Dak. A couple of things.

229
00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,520
Speaker 4: Number One, we know that to win MVP, you gotta

230
00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:41,960
Speaker 4: win a lot of games. You may not have to

231
00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:43,719
Speaker 4: be a bye week team anymore, but you're gonna have

232
00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:45,240
Speaker 4: to be close. I think you probably have to be

233
00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:48,079
Speaker 4: in bye week contention. I don't know that I can

234
00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:51,480
Speaker 4: see that from this Cowboys team. Their defense is a rack. Still,

235
00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,120
Speaker 4: the division is definitely wide open. I'll give you that's

236
00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,960
Speaker 4: a defense that the division is in play. But I

237
00:10:57,040 --> 00:10:58,800
Speaker 4: just I just don't know if the Cowboys can get

238
00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:01,880
Speaker 4: to what like twelve and five, thirteen and four. That

239
00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,240
Speaker 4: is asking a lot of the Cowboys. Even if I

240
00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:07,000
Speaker 4: think Dak can do his part, you know it is

241
00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,680
Speaker 4: wins are a QB stat when it comes to MVP,

242
00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:13,520
Speaker 4: so I don't know if you can get there. They

243
00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:15,360
Speaker 4: also just love to hand it off to Zeke when

244
00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:17,560
Speaker 4: you get inside the five. They love to hand off

245
00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,360
Speaker 4: and get all those touchdowns and make him happy, let

246
00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:22,400
Speaker 4: him eat some cereal or whatever it is he's doing

247
00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,080
Speaker 4: when he gets into the end zone. And you know,

248
00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,760
Speaker 4: we need some stats, we need those touchdowns. So to me,

249
00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:32,440
Speaker 4: Dak is a guy I can see the perfect Dak season,

250
00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:35,240
Speaker 4: him getting on the ballot, but being like the third

251
00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:37,360
Speaker 4: place guy and that's like, okay, we got the big

252
00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:41,320
Speaker 4: Dak season. So here's my pick. And this is maybe

253
00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:44,240
Speaker 4: my favorite play on the podcast today. I can't believe

254
00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:47,600
Speaker 4: that this number is out there and still available to me.

255
00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:50,679
Speaker 4: I think there are two favorites for MVP. I think

256
00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:53,400
Speaker 4: they got the second one wrong. Mahomes is the favorite.

257
00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,000
Speaker 4: He should be, but right behind him and not that

258
00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,360
Speaker 4: far behind him, should be the goat. As much as

259
00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:04,160
Speaker 4: it hurts me, this, Tom Brady, Tom Brady is plus

260
00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,960
Speaker 4: fourteen hundred right now, fourteen to one odds. Let me

261
00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,480
Speaker 4: tell you why Tom Brady's gonna be the MVP. This

262
00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:14,120
Speaker 4: is a narrative, a ward. Tom Brady has every narrative

263
00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:16,640
Speaker 4: you could possibly have about him, like look for hey,

264
00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:19,559
Speaker 4: me and you normally are on NBA podcast, and when

265
00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:22,280
Speaker 4: do we talk about all year long? Lebron is gonna

266
00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,280
Speaker 4: win MVP because everyone wants to vote for Lebron. He's

267
00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:28,920
Speaker 4: the greatest. Everyone wants to give another MVP. Do you

268
00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:32,959
Speaker 4: know that Tom Brady right now has only three MVPs,

269
00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:37,520
Speaker 4: only three? Peyton Manning has five, Tom Brady has three.

270
00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:39,880
Speaker 4: That seems off, doesn't it seem off? I feel like

271
00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:42,120
Speaker 4: Tom needs another one. I think that the media is

272
00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,600
Speaker 4: gonna decide that Tom needs another one. He's right now

273
00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,040
Speaker 4: he's tied with Rogers five of Johnny Knis and Jim

274
00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:50,839
Speaker 4: Brown only three. He needs a fourth. They just won

275
00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,560
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl. We know the Bucks are gonna be good.

276
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,480
Speaker 4: We know they're gonna be competing, like I certainly expect

277
00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:58,520
Speaker 4: the Bucks of a better record than the Cowboys. They're

278
00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:00,640
Speaker 4: gonna be competing for that bye week in the NFC.

279
00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:03,440
Speaker 4: If there is a week spun on the team. It

280
00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,199
Speaker 4: might be the secondary, which helps my case because now

281
00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:08,280
Speaker 4: he might get some shootouts, get a few more stats

282
00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:12,200
Speaker 4: in there. They have awesome receivers. We know how media

283
00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,880
Speaker 4: likes to give the career award, Like what would be

284
00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:19,400
Speaker 4: more media sports voting than to get that one last

285
00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:21,600
Speaker 4: touch on a career to then to give out the MVP.

286
00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:24,320
Speaker 4: Why is Tom Brady not one of the favorites tier?

287
00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:29,520
Speaker 2: Look, I love Tom Brady, Like Tom Brady might be

288
00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:32,120
Speaker 2: one of my favorite athletes of all time. Like to me,

289
00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,800
Speaker 2: tom Brady is like Alonzo from training day. You give

290
00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:40,079
Speaker 2: him eighteen months, he'll give you a career. I mean

291
00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,839
Speaker 2: we saw it in New England. I mean it didn't

292
00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,560
Speaker 2: matter who he was throwing to. He was gonna you know,

293
00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,040
Speaker 2: whether it be Wes Welker, whether it be Dion Branch.

294
00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,800
Speaker 2: He made these guys a star, you know, and he

295
00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,800
Speaker 2: has the weapons around him now. But I just don't

296
00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:57,839
Speaker 2: see Tom Brady putting up the numbers that you need

297
00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:01,160
Speaker 2: him to put up. He's forty four years so I

298
00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:03,760
Speaker 2: just I just think there's guys out there who are

299
00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,640
Speaker 2: gonna outshot him. He's he is a great defense, so

300
00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:09,000
Speaker 2: he's not gonna have to go out there and put up,

301
00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:11,439
Speaker 2: you know, the video game numbers of you know, a

302
00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:15,560
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott or Patrick Mahomes in order

303
00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,360
Speaker 2: to win these games. And I think that's the thing

304
00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:19,000
Speaker 2: that's gonna hurt.

305
00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,240
Speaker 4: And I agree with every word that you just said,

306
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,080
Speaker 4: and I just think voters don't care because it's the

307
00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:28,040
Speaker 4: same thing with the Lebron argument. The numbers just don't matter.

308
00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,040
Speaker 4: The numbers don't matter when you're Lebron or Tom Brady,

309
00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:33,680
Speaker 4: and when it's time for you to get your MVP votes,

310
00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:35,680
Speaker 4: they'll be like, oh, well, he's so good. He didn't

311
00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:38,000
Speaker 4: even have to throw the extra touchdowns in yards.

312
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:38,600
Speaker 1: He's so good.

313
00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:41,240
Speaker 4: He elevated the defense, he was coaching up the special

314
00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,120
Speaker 4: teams over there, Like we will just go in on

315
00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,040
Speaker 4: the narrative. I agree, he's not going to have the

316
00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,760
Speaker 4: best numbers, the very best. I just don't think he

317
00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,280
Speaker 4: needs them. I think he's going to be in arrange

318
00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:55,080
Speaker 4: at the very least. I'm getting my money in at

319
00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:58,320
Speaker 4: fourteen hundred because I think there's almost certainly gonna give

320
00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:00,880
Speaker 4: me a chance to cash out if I'm getting cold feet,

321
00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:03,200
Speaker 4: if there's another guy out there, that's starting to run away.

322
00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:06,680
Speaker 4: That's fine, but Brady's gonna get down there to like five, six,

323
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,080
Speaker 4: seven hundred, And if I want to cash out, then fine,

324
00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,520
Speaker 4: I'll just take my money and go let Mahomes or

325
00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:12,640
Speaker 4: whoever run away with it.

326
00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:14,600
Speaker 1: But fourteen hundred is insane to me.

327
00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:17,800
Speaker 4: There's no way halfway through the season that his number

328
00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:18,760
Speaker 4: is going to be that high.

329
00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:20,840
Speaker 2: I think you may have a point, because I do

330
00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:22,880
Speaker 2: think if Brady's gonna fall off, it's going to be

331
00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:23,480
Speaker 2: second half.

332
00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:24,640
Speaker 1: Of a year. Yeah.

333
00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there is the age concern, and you know,

334
00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,160
Speaker 4: just wear and tearing all that, like, that's definitely the

335
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,520
Speaker 4: concern with him. So but I think it's at least

336
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:34,920
Speaker 4: a cash out opportunity, especially you know, I bet MGM

337
00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,320
Speaker 4: allows that and some other books allow that. So definitely

338
00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:39,520
Speaker 4: keep an eye on it. A couple other names that

339
00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,440
Speaker 4: I have my eye on for MVP, and I like

340
00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:44,840
Speaker 4: these too, but I actually think that they're out there backwards.

341
00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:46,960
Speaker 4: I know, you like at least one of these guys.

342
00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:50,560
Speaker 4: So I think Justin Herbert is an interesting long shot.

343
00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,640
Speaker 4: I love him, and I also I don't even love him.

344
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 4: I just like the number on Baker Mayfield now. Herbert

345
00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,800
Speaker 4: right now is at twenty two to one. Mayfield's thirty

346
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,920
Speaker 4: five to one. I think that's backwards. I think that

347
00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:07,640
Speaker 4: Cleveland is the better team than the Chargers. I think

348
00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:11,040
Speaker 4: Cleveland has the better offensive system and the right coaching.

349
00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:15,160
Speaker 4: Stefanski's the coach of the year. I don't really believe

350
00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:17,560
Speaker 4: in Baker, to be totally honest. I think that he's

351
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,200
Speaker 4: going to get a bad extension soon, but I might

352
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:22,040
Speaker 4: be wrong. He looked really good toward the end of

353
00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,800
Speaker 4: last year. The offense has really come together. They're getting

354
00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:28,520
Speaker 4: Odell Beckham Junior back. Cleveland would definitely have like the

355
00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,520
Speaker 4: Darling story. Everyone would be so excited to crown Baker

356
00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,160
Speaker 4: Mayfield and he's not former number one pick.

357
00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,040
Speaker 1: To me, Herbert. I love Herbert, but I was really

358
00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 1: sad when I saw his number. It's a little too low.

359
00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:42,800
Speaker 4: It's just like he should be in that thirty to

360
00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,520
Speaker 4: forty to one range. At twenty two or even lower

361
00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:47,960
Speaker 4: at other books. I can't quite get there, like when

362
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,520
Speaker 4: you're that close to a Brady or a Dak there's

363
00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:51,440
Speaker 4: just not a value in it.

364
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:51,760
Speaker 3: For me.

365
00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,160
Speaker 4: Mayfield at thirty five to one, I think there's some

366
00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,040
Speaker 4: value there just on Cleveland having the dream season and

367
00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:58,080
Speaker 4: he gets into the mix.

368
00:16:58,200 --> 00:16:59,160
Speaker 1: What do you think about those two?

369
00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:02,040
Speaker 2: You know, Herbert was a name that I was gonna

370
00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,000
Speaker 2: mention next. I think the thing with Herbert is everyone

371
00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:08,720
Speaker 2: knows that there's an inefficiency in terms of second year

372
00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:12,199
Speaker 2: quarterbacks winning the MVP. So you look at you know,

373
00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,760
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes, you look at Lamar Jackson. So everybody's looking

374
00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:19,280
Speaker 2: for that next second year quarterback on a rookie deal

375
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,280
Speaker 2: where they have all the talent built around them, and

376
00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:24,560
Speaker 2: it just, you know, it gives them that opportunity to

377
00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,840
Speaker 2: really shine through and take their team to heavily heights.

378
00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:32,040
Speaker 2: I like Herbert because he showed me that he can

379
00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:33,919
Speaker 2: win these games on his own. And he has a

380
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:37,600
Speaker 2: good rode receiver corps. He has, you know, Keenan Allen,

381
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 2: he has Mike Williams. I think he's live, you know,

382
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,399
Speaker 2: and even at twenty two to one, I like him.

383
00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:45,679
Speaker 2: And I think one of the reasons why he's priced

384
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,960
Speaker 2: above Baker is because Baker actually plays in a run

385
00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,960
Speaker 2: first offense. Yeah, that's true, and I think that's the

386
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:55,000
Speaker 2: that's the only thing holding me back from betting Baker.

387
00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,560
Speaker 2: Like if Baker played in the past. First offense, I'll

388
00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,359
Speaker 2: be all over Baker just because I feel like, you know,

389
00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,359
Speaker 2: there was always this narrative that you know, he was

390
00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 2: better without Odell Beckham. They're not better without Odell Becker.

391
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:08,919
Speaker 2: You know, they didn't have as many explosive plays, and

392
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:10,400
Speaker 2: I think they're going to be a lot more explosive

393
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,399
Speaker 2: this year. I mean, Cleveland is proven to be. You know,

394
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:14,879
Speaker 2: a lot of sharps are on them to win a

395
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:18,360
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. I think they're contender, but I just them

396
00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:20,760
Speaker 2: being a run for US offense, and you know they're

397
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,200
Speaker 2: going to be relying so much on Chubb I can't

398
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:23,680
Speaker 2: get there.

399
00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's true. That's a very good argument. I think

400
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 4: in order for it to happen, you'd suddenly have to

401
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:32,480
Speaker 4: see Baker. You know, Carson Wentz. We all talk about

402
00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:35,720
Speaker 4: that MVP he almost won, and whether that's true or not,

403
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,240
Speaker 4: one of the reasons he almost won it or contended

404
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 4: is because he's suddenly his touchdown percentage, just like went

405
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,040
Speaker 4: through the roof that year, they just suddenly anytime they're

406
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:45,679
Speaker 4: in the red zone, they're just getting passing touchdowns. So

407
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 4: I think for Baker to win, you need something like

408
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 4: that to happen. They're running to get them up and

409
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 4: down the field, you know, but Baker suddenly gets to

410
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,920
Speaker 4: forty touchdowns because Cleveland's offense is just really good and suddenly,

411
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 4: you know, they keep getting tackled up at the two

412
00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,679
Speaker 4: and Baker's getting all these like two yard touchdown So

413
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:02,600
Speaker 4: I think you're right. I think that's the sort of

414
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:06,520
Speaker 4: like statistical anomaly. I think if he won, he would

415
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:09,199
Speaker 4: be like a winner that maybe we'd look back and

416
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,680
Speaker 4: be like, eh, he probably got a few like fluky

417
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:13,360
Speaker 4: stats to go his way in order to get there.

418
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 4: But I think it's an interesting one. So so we've

419
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 4: looked at that top twelve. Do you have any any

420
00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:22,000
Speaker 4: long shots that are on your radar, anybody who's like

421
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,359
Speaker 4: fifty to one or longer that you want to get

422
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:25,760
Speaker 4: at least a little bit of money in on.

423
00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:30,119
Speaker 2: If there was somebody, it would be Tua huh, just

424
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:33,800
Speaker 2: because I mean that's just another second year quarterback who

425
00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,159
Speaker 2: you know last year he came into the season, he's

426
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 2: coming off an injury from Alabama. You know, he really

427
00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 2: never really found his footing because you know, they didn't

428
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:43,680
Speaker 2: really trust him all the way. I mean, they had

429
00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 2: always made this joke, like what if you had like

430
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 2: closing quarterbacks? And I mean last year we basically saw

431
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 2: that with him and Ryan Fitzpatrick. And I think this year,

432
00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:57,679
Speaker 2: you know, they actually put some weapons around him. So

433
00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 2: I think he's a He's a guy with a long channow.

434
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:02,680
Speaker 1: I like it. I like it.

435
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 4: So I've got two long shots for you. I don't

436
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:07,760
Speaker 4: I can't tell you. I can't look you in the

437
00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 4: eye and tell you I really truly believe either of

438
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 4: these guys can win. However, this is where the cashout

439
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 4: is key. I do absolutely think that these guys can

440
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:19,120
Speaker 4: can be the darling for a few weeks and can

441
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 4: put you in a position to cash out and or

442
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,240
Speaker 4: just hang on and see if it breaks your way.

443
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 4: So here's my guys. First, one is a rookie, and

444
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 4: I know rookies should just win Rookie the Year, not MVP.

445
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 4: But if the Bears defense is awesome, and if Andy

446
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,320
Speaker 4: Dalton sucks for a couple of games and Justin Fields

447
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,200
Speaker 4: comes in and turns that thing around and the Bears

448
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:43,440
Speaker 4: start winning, and like, look, I live in Chicago area.

449
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 4: I know what a Bear's season looks like. The defense

450
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:49,160
Speaker 4: does crazy things, the quarterback makes a few plays, they

451
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 4: go like thirteen and four. You know, the Rogers thing

452
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:53,640
Speaker 4: makes the Packer season kind of.

453
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:54,400
Speaker 1: Go off the rails.

454
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,399
Speaker 4: Wila, We've got you know, every like five years the

455
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:01,399
Speaker 4: Bears have that season. Everyone loves just Fields. Everyone's already

456
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 4: getting hype about all his highlights and everything. Two hundred

457
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 4: to one, Justin Fields. Just think that, I think that

458
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 4: he could get into the mix. He could be one

459
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 4: of those buzz names. And here's my absolute, crazy long shot,

460
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,920
Speaker 4: five hundred to one. This is more like the guy

461
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 4: that I won my fantasy football team this year. And

462
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,680
Speaker 4: this is not even a quarterback. Austin Eckler on the Chargers.

463
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:27,199
Speaker 4: Here's Austin Eckler. Austin Eckler is going to be this

464
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:31,160
Speaker 4: year's Alvin Kamara. Joe Lombardi, the old Saints quarterback coach,

465
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 4: is their offensive coordinator now, so he knows exactly how

466
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 4: to use a running back who's a runner and a

467
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,360
Speaker 4: great receiver. Eckler has already been a huge producer last

468
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 4: couple of seasons. He puts up huge numbers. Start of

469
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 4: the season. The Chargers play Washington, Dallas, Kansas City, and Vegas.

470
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 4: That's some bad defenses. After Washington, that's gonna be a chance.

471
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,240
Speaker 4: So like, like I could see Ekiler putting up like

472
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 4: one hundred and hundred receiving a rushing game. I can

473
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 4: see him getting you know, a couple three or four

474
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,359
Speaker 4: touchdown games. That's part of why I don't want to

475
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 4: go Herbert, because I think Eckler is going to have

476
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 4: a monster statistical season. Like I could see him doing

477
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 4: like one thousand yards rushing, one thousand receiving, or hitting

478
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 4: some of these numbers that just very few people have.

479
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 4: So five hundred to one, again, you may have to

480
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,639
Speaker 4: look for cash out opportunity. We've set a hardest for

481
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 4: running back to get there. He's clearly not going to

482
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 4: run for two thousand yards. But Austin Eckler five hundred

483
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,360
Speaker 4: to one, am I absolutely crazy?

484
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:32,159
Speaker 2: You're absolutely insane. I just don't even I don't know

485
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 2: how he surpasses his quarterback.

486
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:36,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know either, but to five hundred to one,

487
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 4: So I like it. Okay, let's or for a shot.

488
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,479
Speaker 4: Let's move on to Rookie of the Year. I just

489
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,119
Speaker 4: mentioned justin Field, so let's start with offensive rookie of

490
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 4: the year. So interestingly, this one's been moving around a

491
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 4: little bit. So Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields have actually

492
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,919
Speaker 4: seen their robs drop a little bit. Because why my

493
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 4: boy from North Dakota State, Trey Lance shooting up the

494
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 4: rankings right now as he looks really good for San Francisco.

495
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 4: He's up the plus seven to fifty nearly even with

496
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 4: the Fields right now. So Rookie of the Year not

497
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 4: quite as dominant by quarterbacks. Six of the last eleven

498
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 4: Rookies of the Year were quarterbacks. So we've got Lawrence,

499
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 4: Fields and Lance, we got Zach Wilson, got mac Jones

500
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 4: if he gets the job. What do you think about

501
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 4: any of those quarterbacks? They're the five favorites right now?

502
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 4: Do you have your eye on one of those five?

503
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,439
Speaker 2: When you look at this landscape, you kind of have

504
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 2: to go with a quarterback. But for the sake of

505
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,880
Speaker 2: this podcast, I mean, I can't be boring in that

506
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 2: and that. I mean, everybody know that Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence,

507
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 2: Trey Lance, Justin Fields, they're the guys. They're in good situations.

508
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 2: But I think you know, Trevor Lawrence is obviously the favorite.

509
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 2: Justin Fields he's not gonna be starting right away. Because

510
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 2: they're gonna go with Dalton. Eventually he's gonna come in.

511
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,199
Speaker 2: Trey Lance same with him, and we don't know if

512
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,679
Speaker 2: he's gonna be starting yet. Zach Wilson's gonna be starting.

513
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:54,639
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, one of those four guys

514
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 2: is gonna win. But for me, I'm going with the

515
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 2: running back. I mean, you mentioned that six of the

516
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,439
Speaker 2: last eleven years we had a quarterback, running backs have

517
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 2: won it four times. I'm gonna go with Javonte Williams

518
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 2: from the Broncos. I mean, both me and you, we've

519
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 2: been high on the Broncos all year. We know Bridgewater.

520
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,719
Speaker 2: He likes to, you know, target his running backs pretty heavily.

521
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 2: They have the second easiest schedule of opposing run defensive.

522
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 2: They get to play the Kansas City Chiefs twice, they

523
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,439
Speaker 2: get to play the Raiders twice. Are we sure Melvin

524
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 2: Gorton is even good anymore?

525
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sure he ever was.

526
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 2: I Mean, I've never really been much of a big fan,

527
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:35,919
Speaker 2: but I think Fangio knows that he's gonna have to

528
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 2: rely on his running on his running backs with you know,

529
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,919
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks he had, whether it's you know, Bridgewater starting

530
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,400
Speaker 2: or drew a lot, So I think Javonte Williams can

531
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 2: have a big year. So I mean, for me, obviously

532
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:49,959
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks are the guys that you want to look at.

533
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:51,440
Speaker 2: But if you want to take a flyer on somebody,

534
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 2: I think Jamontay Williams is a guy you want to

535
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 2: take a flyer on. And then if there's another guy

536
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 2: that you want to take a flyer on, I think

537
00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 2: it's not Gen Harris from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Big throw

538
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 2: the ball six and eight times last year. They had

539
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 2: absolutely no running game. I mean their running game was

540
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 2: basically big bin throw the ball short, you know, throw slants,

541
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 2: those screens, stuff like that. Nijie Harris is going to

542
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 2: be the god this year. So those are two I

543
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 2: really like for Rookie of the Year.

544
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 1: Interesting.

545
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting that you brought up Davante Williams because

546
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 4: when I was prepping for this podcast over the weekend,

547
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 4: he was on my list, and then he had a

548
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 4: nice preseason showing and now his odds are dropping. He's

549
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 4: he's at twenty five to one right now. He's thirty

550
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 4: five to one just a few days ago. So you know,

551
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 4: those odds are gave if you want Javonte, you gotta

552
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 4: get him soon, especially if he keeps looking good and

553
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 4: Gordon keeps not really doing too much. So one interesting

554
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 4: thing to note on this, unlike MVP, quarterback wins don't

555
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 4: matter apparently.

556
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:49,120
Speaker 1: For Rookie of the Year.

557
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 4: Those six guys who've won it, here's their number of

558
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 4: wins each year when they were the Rookie of the Year.

559
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 1: Six.

560
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 4: That was last year with Herbert five thirteen. That's Dak

561
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 4: Prescott nine, six and seven. It's not a lot of wins.

562
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:06,359
Speaker 4: In fact, that's just a bad team in some of

563
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 4: those cases. That's an average of seven point eight wins,

564
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 4: so below five hundred, and that includes thirteen to three

565
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 4: from Dak Prescott. You take him out, that's an average

566
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,439
Speaker 4: of six and a half wins. So you do not

567
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 4: need a quarterback to win. This is a stats thing.

568
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 4: You need stats. It doesn't hurt to be in like

569
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 4: an im media place, you know, like if Zach Wilson

570
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:25,199
Speaker 4: looks good, yeah, you.

571
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 1: Better believe is gonna get a little New York bump

572
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 1: in there.

573
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 4: So don't be afraid to bet on a Trevor Lawrence

574
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 4: just because you think, well, Jacksonville's not gonna win enough.

575
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 1: They have to win their division. That's really not how

576
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: the voters do this one.

577
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 4: Like again, if you get a Tree Lance or Justin

578
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 4: Fields that's on a great team and winning a whole bunch,

579
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 4: it certainly won't hurt your case. You know, if you

580
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 4: can get like a twelve and five starting quarterback, sure

581
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,120
Speaker 4: you're gonna have a good position there.

582
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 1: But don't be.

583
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 4: Afraid to take the underdog if you really like them.

584
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 4: That said, I don't know of those quarterbacks, there's not

585
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 4: really one that super stands out. What's interesting to me

586
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 4: is there is a sixth rookie quarterback that I think's

587
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 4: going to end up starting a lot of the season.

588
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 4: He's actually not on the board right now at BEDMGM,

589
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 4: and I don't know if that's because of some uncertainties

590
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 4: or if it's because he's just not even on the

591
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 4: radar enough the odds go low. There are five hundred

592
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 4: to one guys on here right now. Davis Mills at

593
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,679
Speaker 4: Houston is not even available to bet on. Davis Mills

594
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 4: I think is gonna up starting most of the season.

595
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 4: The Texans are horrendous. They're one of the worst rosters

596
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 4: I've ever seen. Before, but that means expectations are very low.

597
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 4: I don't think Deshaun Watson a step on a football

598
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 4: field this year. I think Tyrod Taylor will start the season,

599
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 4: but we all know that he doesn't last very long.

600
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 4: And then it's Davis Mills Houston is they're going nowhere.

601
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 4: They're going to lose a lot, They're going to be

602
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 4: behind all season, so they're going to be passing a lot.

603
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 4: I don't think super highly of him as a prospect,

604
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 4: but if he comes on the board at like a

605
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 4: five hundred to one, and we already know that quarterbacks

606
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 4: win this over half the time, and I got a

607
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 4: shot at a quarterback, I'm gonna take a five hundred

608
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 4: to one on that. So that's one of my guys.

609
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 4: Here's my other five hundred to one that I do love.

610
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 4: Elijah Mitchell from the San Francisco forty nine ers. He's

611
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 4: a running back. He was buried in the draft. I

612
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 4: think he was a sixth round choice. So Elijah Mitchell

613
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,479
Speaker 4: is a perfect fit for what San Francisco likes to do.

614
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,400
Speaker 4: He's a one cut runner. He's really explosive, so that's

615
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 4: exactly what you want in that Kyle Shanahan offense. He's

616
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 4: looked good in training camp. He cut a bunch of

617
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 4: weight and he's been running really well. You're paying a

618
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 4: lot more to get Trey Sermon. Sermon I think is

619
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 4: the flashy name because he played Ohio State. I think

620
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 4: Elijah Mitchell is the better fit, and San Francisco's gonna

621
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 4: be a good team this year. I think he can

622
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 4: have a big season. I do like getting that running back.

623
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 4: I looked at Kyle Pitts, I looked at Jamar Chase.

624
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 4: I don't hate either one of those. It's just going

625
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 4: to be really tough, I think for a receiver, basically

626
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 4: to get the numbers that you need. So to me,

627
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 4: there's not really a favorite I love here, So I'm

628
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 4: just kind of taking a shot at some of those

629
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 4: long shots. So keep an eye out. And better is

630
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 4: if you like someone then without a your favorite, that

631
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 4: means you might be getting some values.

632
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 3: This is Action Network podcast producer Matt Mitchell here to

633
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 3: tell you our friends at BETMGM have a great news

634
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 3: sign up offer for our listeners, a six one hundred

635
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 3: dollars risk free first bet. Here's how it works. If

636
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 3: you don't already have an account, at bet mgm. Just

637
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:22,440
Speaker 3: sign up, make your first deposit, and place that initial wager.

638
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,239
Speaker 3: If the bet wins, you get all the money. If

639
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 3: it doesn't win, bet mgm will refund you in free

640
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 3: bets up to six hundred dollars. It's that simple. Just

641
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 3: click on the link in this episode description to get started.

642
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 3: Betmgm has been a great podcast partner, and they've got

643
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 3: all the features gamblers like us love, like live betting

644
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 3: and daily odds boosts. Plus they're compatible with betsync, so

645
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 3: when you place a wager at betmgm, be bet can

646
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 3: automatically be tracked in your action app. So open an

647
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:53,959
Speaker 3: account today and make your first bet risk free up

648
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 3: to six hundred dollars. Just click on the link in

649
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 3: this episode description to get started. Must be twenty one

650
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 3: or older, relocated in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevata,

651
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 3: or Pennsylvania. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one eight

652
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 3: hundred and five two two forty seven hundred in Colorado

653
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 3: and Nevata one eight hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania.

654
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 3: In West Virginia one eight hundred and nine with it

655
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 3: in Indiana, one eight hundred and two seven zero seven

656
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 3: to one one seven in Michigan, one one hundred eight

657
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 3: nine nine seven eight nine in Tennessee, one eight one

658
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 3: hundred bets off in Iowa, or one eight eight five

659
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 3: three two thirty five hundred in Virginia. Betsink not available

660
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 3: in the data. Thanks for listening. Now back to the show.

661
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 1: Let's look over to the defensive side real quick.

662
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 3: Here.

663
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 4: Defense again, there's not really a clear cut, uh favoriteier.

664
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 4: Micah Parsons is the favorite right now, Dallas linebacker, but

665
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 4: it wasn't really the strongest defensive class. There's a lot

666
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:48,760
Speaker 4: of offensive guys taking at the top of the draft. So, Rahim,

667
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 4: who do you like for defensive Rookie of the Year

668
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 4: right now?

669
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 2: I mean, I think one of the things that you

670
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 2: have to I have to really specify is that ed

671
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 2: US Russiers truly have to edge here. You know, they're

672
00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 2: the guys getting the sacks. There's some pretty good quarterback

673
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 2: in this field, but you know, since ninety five they've

674
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 2: only won twelve percent of the awards because they have

675
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 2: to get the interception. It doesn't matter how good you're

676
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 2: locking down somebody they want to know if you if

677
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 2: the roads need to see interceptions. So I'm gonna go

678
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 2: with two edge rushers here. I'm gonna go with Jillian

679
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 2: Phillips out of Miami. He's with the Miami Dolphins first

680
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 2: round pick. He played in University of Miami. You know,

681
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 2: he slipped down because he had some injuries. That's the

682
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 2: first edge rusher drafted in the draft, So I think

683
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 2: you kind of gotta go with him at plus nine hundred.

684
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 2: He's playing in Brian Flores' defense, you know which is

685
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 2: you know, they forced the most turnovers last year. I

686
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 2: think they're gonna take a step back this year. But

687
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 2: I think he can really do some damage in that defense.

688
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go with him, And then I'm gonna

689
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 2: go with Hope. I'm pronouncing his name correctly. It's Quitty

690
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 2: Pey out of Indianapolis. They lost some guys in Justin

691
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 2: Houston and Deniico Autrey, so he's got to be the

692
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 2: guy there. You know, if he can deliver some sacks

693
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 2: and some passing downs, he has a shot. So I

694
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 2: like both of those. They're both at plus nine hundred,

695
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 2: So okay, edge rushers.

696
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm with you on edge rushers five to the

697
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 4: last eight defensive rookie of the year. We're pass rushers.

698
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 4: So the guy that I like I actually took during

699
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 4: the draft. He started to slip a little bit, but

700
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 4: I'm really happy where he landed. So he's on the Giants.

701
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 4: I'm going with Aziz Ojalari. He's at twenty to one

702
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 4: right now, and the Giants are really good defense. They've got,

703
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 4: you know, up and coming. They really handled Seattle last year. Well,

704
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 4: I think that, you know, in that division, they're gonna

705
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 4: have a lot of opportunity to cast some chaos and

706
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 4: I think that he has a chance to be one

707
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 4: of those guys that even in part time duty, gets

708
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 4: to like double digit sacks and then that's going to

709
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 4: put you in the mix here. So at twenty one,

710
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 4: I like him. My other pick here is also in

711
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 4: that division with Washington. I think Washington's gonna have a

712
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 4: really strong defense this year. Is they're gonna get a

713
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 4: lot of attention, and I like jam And Davis. He

714
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 4: was their top pick this year. He's a linebacker for them.

715
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 4: He had a really good opening weekend here, so his

716
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 4: odds are starting to go down a little bit. But

717
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 4: he's still ten to one. I actually have seen him

718
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 4: at some books be as high as the second favorite

719
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 4: for Defensive Rookie of the Year. So at ten to one,

720
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 4: I think that there's a little bit of value just

721
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 4: on the number there too. But yeah, it's it's tough

722
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 4: to find the right guy because no one has really

723
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 4: cleared out from the field here. But yeah, it should

724
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 4: be an interesting race. We'll see if anyone can can

725
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 4: separate themselves a little bit.

726
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Jamie David. That's a good pick.

727
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: I like that. Cool.

728
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 4: All right, let's take a look at players of the year,

729
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 4: Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.

730
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 4: So we talked about this Offensive Player of the Year.

731
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 4: Sounds like it should just be the MVP. The MVP

732
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 4: is never going to special teams, it doesn't go to defense.

733
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 4: So shouldn't the Offensive Player of the Year just be

734
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 4: the MVP. Yeah, it probably should, but it's not. MVP

735
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 4: is about narrative. We like to tell stories. Offensive Player

736
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 4: of the Year is about stats. We like to reward

737
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 4: guys who put up a big number. Offensive Player of

738
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 4: the Year is more like fantasy player of the year.

739
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 4: So offensive Player of the Year, right, now the favorite

740
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 4: is actually Derrick Henry, who was the highest non quarterback,

741
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 4: But you know Christian mccaffor, he is our third favorite.

742
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 4: Dwn Cook is up there for him. Who do you

743
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 4: like for offensive player of the Year who stands out

744
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 4: from some of those names.

745
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 2: I'm going with Dalvin Cook. When you're playing in a

746
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,959
Speaker 2: Mike Zimmer offense, you know that he's gonna run the ball.

747
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 2: And not only can Dalvin Cook run the ball, he

748
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,360
Speaker 2: can catch passes out of the backfield. I mean, he

749
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 2: really has no competition as far as carries over there.

750
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 2: I mean, I know, you know, Justin Jefferson has been great,

751
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 2: Adam Thieling has been great as far as you know,

752
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 2: being wide receivers can strutch the field. But he's gonna

753
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 2: get the majority of the touches and you know he's

754
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,760
Speaker 2: gonna be He's he's gonna get the goal line carries.

755
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 2: He's the guy over there. To me, I think he's

756
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 2: probably the number one back in Fantasy this year because

757
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 2: I think, you know, Derek Henry is obways going to

758
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 2: take a step back. You know, he had four hundred

759
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 2: touches last year. We can go all into you know,

760
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 2: running backs who get four hundred touches and decline. Yeah,

761
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 2: Christan McCaffrey, I love, but I just think Cook is

762
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 2: just gonna get so many opportunities, So I'm going with

763
00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 2: him at plus eighteen hundred to win offensive players year.

764
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:02,839
Speaker 4: Well, that sounds good to this Vikings fan, I'll tell

765
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 4: you that much. I hope that you're right to everyone

766
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 4: tail Raheem's Dawn Cook pick on that one. I like

767
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 4: Austin Ekler here, although I really don't love the odds,

768
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 4: same argument that made before a surprise to see he

769
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:15,840
Speaker 4: is only at forty to one on this one. The

770
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,320
Speaker 4: odds are really flatten out after the top few guys,

771
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 4: just because this award can really be wide open. So

772
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 4: I don't know if that i'd play him at forty

773
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:24,840
Speaker 4: to one. That's why I put him under my MVP's

774
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 4: at five hundred to one instead. But I do think

775
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 4: that he can be like a top three sort of

776
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 4: fantasy running back and be a guy that puts up

777
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 4: huge stats and be in that mix. My main pick

778
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 4: here is Patrick Mahomes. Maybe you've heard of him before.

779
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 4: He's really good. He's gonna put up huge numbers. He's

780
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 4: at ten to one right now. He's the second favorite,

781
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 4: but I don't know. I think you should be the favorite.

782
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 4: I think you should be like five to one or something,

783
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 4: because why should does oud to be any lower here

784
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 4: than he has at MVP. It's a different award, but

785
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 4: we know he's gonna putup the numbers. He's gonna have

786
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,959
Speaker 4: a huge, huge touchdowns, huge yards. He's doing crazy things

787
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:58,760
Speaker 4: every week that none of us have ever seen before.

788
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 4: He's got great web and they're gonna have to keep

789
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 4: putting up the stats because the defense isn't great. It's

790
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 4: almost impossible to me that Mahomes is not in the

791
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 4: mix for this award unless he gets hurt or something

792
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,319
Speaker 4: goes terribly wrong for them. It's not a sexy pick,

793
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,919
Speaker 4: but we know he's gonna be there and he's gonna

794
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 4: give them a chance to win. How about Defensive Player

795
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 4: of the Year. So move onward to Defensive player of

796
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:22,240
Speaker 4: the Year. The name to look at first here, of course,

797
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 4: Aaron Donald. Aaron Donald has won three of the last

798
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 4: four Defensive Players of the Year. Unlike every other award

799
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 4: in the sporting universe, we apparently like to just give

800
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 4: Defensive Player of the Year to the same guy every

801
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 4: single year. Aaron Donald won three of the last four.

802
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:39,359
Speaker 4: Before that, JJ Watt won three out of five. So

803
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 4: is Aaron Donald just gonna do this again?

804
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 2: You know, I'm struggling with it because it's just I

805
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 2: don't know how this defense is gonna react to the

806
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,320
Speaker 2: loss of Brandon Staley. I mean, Aaron Donald's is still

807
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 2: gonna be the guy. If I'm gonna bet this award,

808
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 2: I'm looking for a longer shot than that. I'm gonna

809
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: go with Chase Young. I mean Chase Young. You know,

810
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 2: forty four tackles last year, seven and a half sacks,

811
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:07,799
Speaker 2: twelve quarterback, his four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, four

812
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 2: passes defended. You know he's playing. He's gonna get to

813
00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 2: play the Giants this year twice. I mean the Eagles.

814
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 2: I'm not really expecting much from them. Chase Young is

815
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 2: on his way to being one of those next guys

816
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,879
Speaker 2: who can continually win the Defensive Player to the Year.

817
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 2: I mean he's only twenty two years old. And it's

818
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,399
Speaker 2: not only just Chase Young. I mean, you gotta deal

819
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:30,800
Speaker 2: with Montes Sweat, you gotta deal with Alan pain ayan

820
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 2: otis itself. This Washington football team front seven is just

821
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 2: stat and it's just gonna make his job easier. So

822
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 2: I'm looking at Chase Young on the short list of

823
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 2: guys who probably is gonna eventually win a Defensive Player

824
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 2: of the Year, and maybe most of them.

825
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Chase Young.

826
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 4: He was the name that sprung in my mind as

827
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 4: I was like, Okay, if it's not Aaron Donald, who

828
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:53,839
Speaker 4: is it. Young was the guy on my list. Here's

829
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 4: the problem with him, same thing as we said a

830
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 4: couple other guys. The odds are already moving. He was

831
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 4: at fifteen to one. I first looked at him, he

832
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 4: dropped a twelve, and now he's down to nine to

833
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 4: one at BETMGM. So make sure to shop Brown, try

834
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 4: to find the best line that you can if you

835
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:09,879
Speaker 4: do want Chase Young. I see the case for him,

836
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 4: but the value is really deteriorated quickly for me. On

837
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 4: this one, I was looking at Okay, do I want

838
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 4: Aaron Donald? I don't hate it, but I don't feel

839
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 4: like there's a ton of value. I don't think his

840
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:22,840
Speaker 4: odds are going to move too quickly. Same sort of

841
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 4: thing I said about mahomes under MVP, like there's just

842
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 4: no reason for me to get my money in right now.

843
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 1: On that one, he should be the favorite.

844
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 4: He's at about the right price to me. That next

845
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 4: tier of guys, there's just not someone that I get

846
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 4: super excited about. Chase Young was the guy I was

847
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 4: trying to get excited about, but the price seems to

848
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 4: not really offer much value. So I'm just looking down

849
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 4: the board. I'm not doing too much on this one.

850
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna take a shot on two kind of

851
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 4: longer shots here. First one Von Miller sixty six to

852
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:51,359
Speaker 4: one right now. Von Miller is a guy that's been

853
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 4: in the mix for this award before and then he

854
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 4: just basically fell off the planet the last couple of years. Reportedly,

855
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 4: according to von Miller, he is ninety seven point five

856
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 4: percent healthy, which is an absurd you know, like approximation

857
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 4: of how healthy do you are? But I do know

858
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:09,319
Speaker 4: that healthy von Miller is an elite pass rusher, and

859
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:13,280
Speaker 4: that Denver should be under Vic Fangio a really great defense,

860
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 4: and that Von Miller would be the best player on

861
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 4: a really good defense that would put him in the

862
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 4: mix at.

863
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 1: Sixty six to one. I like that.

864
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 4: My other pick is from that division, another injury guy.

865
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 4: I don't know if he'll stay healthy. But I love

866
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 4: Derwin James. I love what he can be for the Chargers.

867
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 4: Brandon Staley had John Johnson in that role last year,

868
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 4: kind of being the quarterback of the defense, which is

869
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,360
Speaker 4: not so normal for safety to get that green dot.

870
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 4: I think Derwin James is gonna be that guy kind

871
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 4: of doing everything for them. He's gonna be a guy

872
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 4: that'll be really easy to notice, and you'll read a

873
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 4: lot of articles about this year, like he'll be the

874
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 4: guy where I was talking about on podcasts because he

875
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 4: just is different than anything else.

876
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 1: So both of those guys need a lot to break

877
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 1: their way.

878
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 4: But that's why you know, Derwin's at forty to one,

879
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:56,960
Speaker 4: Vond's at sixty six to one. I'm not doing much

880
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 4: on these, but I think those are the long shots

881
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 4: that I'd like to just have a little bit on

882
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:02,440
Speaker 4: anyone else on defense for.

883
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 2: You, Like you mentioned already, I'm kind of really struggling

884
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:07,239
Speaker 2: as far as the long shots, and you know, I'm

885
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 2: just thinking about this just now. I think one of

886
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 2: the most underrated things about choosing like an edge rusher

887
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 2: or you know, somebody who's just on the defensive line,

888
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 2: to get defensive player of the Year is how good

889
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 2: their offense is. Like when you look at Aaron Donald

890
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 2: the year he had twenty and a half sex, the

891
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 2: Rams offense was unstoppable.

892
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, so you're you're just putting in your ears back

893
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 4: and rushing the passer every single down because.

894
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 2: Exactly exactly so, I mean that kind of almost if

895
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 2: Matthew Sefford can be what people expect them to be,

896
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 2: that kind of gives Aaron Donald to edge here. You know,

897
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 2: it kind of makes me rethink my position on Chase

898
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 2: Young because you know, you really need you you got

899
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,439
Speaker 2: to have those opportunities to get those sacks. I do

900
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 2: think the Washington offense is going to be better than

901
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 2: it was last year, but I don't know if it's

902
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 2: gonna be prolific to the point where they're constantly going

903
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 2: to be ahead in games and they're just gonna allow

904
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 2: Chase to just rush the quarterback all the time. So

905
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 2: that's something to think about.

906
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.

907
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,400
Speaker 4: All right, let's take a look here at Coach of

908
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 4: the Year and Comeback Player of the Year. Just a

909
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 4: quick look here and I we'll wrap up for you.

910
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:13,319
Speaker 4: So start with Coach of the Year. Three of our

911
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 4: last four winners were first year coaches with a new team.

912
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 4: So Kevin Stefanski is our reigning coach of the Year

913
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 4: from last year for him. Do you like one of

914
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 4: these first year coaches or who's your pick for coach

915
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:24,439
Speaker 4: of the year.

916
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 2: The thing is, I mean with this, I mean you

917
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 2: mentioned it already, the first year coaches are really big.

918
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 2: I mean, last four winners, you get thefan Ski, you

919
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 2: had Naggy, you had McVeigh. But I just don't want

920
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 2: to go with the first year coach this year because

921
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 2: I mean a lot of people are. You know, they're

922
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 2: looking at Brandon Stanley, but I just to me, they

923
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 2: lost a lot on defense and I don't necessarily trust them,

924
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 2: and I think I think they're playing in a tough

925
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 2: division and playing with the Chiefs. I think the Broncos

926
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 2: are gonna be better this year, so I want to

927
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,319
Speaker 2: stay away from them. The guy I want to go

928
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:57,760
Speaker 2: with is Riverboat Ron Vavera. He's at plus two thousand.

929
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:01,319
Speaker 2: I mean, I love this Washington football team defense. I've

930
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 2: mentioned it before, you know, I mentioned going over on

931
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 2: their win total. I think the offense is better. I

932
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 2: love the Washington football team this year. So if I

933
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 2: love the Washington football team, and I think they can

934
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 2: improve offensively while still maintaining your top tier defense. I

935
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 2: gotta go with Riverboat Ron.

936
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 1: I like it. I think he's won before, hasn't he.

937
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:20,319
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure he's won before.

938
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 2: And I think if there's one other guy I would

939
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 2: go with, I would go with Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco.

940
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,239
Speaker 2: They lost so much, I mean on both sides of

941
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,360
Speaker 2: the ball last year in terms of injuries. You know,

942
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:33,160
Speaker 2: whether they go with Jimmy Garoppolo or they go with

943
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 2: Trey Lance, They're gonna have good quarterback play. I mean,

944
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:38,799
Speaker 2: they're gonna have great running back play. They're gonna they're

945
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:41,280
Speaker 2: gonna be able to score points. The defense is gonna

946
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 2: be up to up to par. So I think those

947
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:46,359
Speaker 2: are myo I think Kyle Shanahan's plus fourteen hundred, So

948
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 2: those are my two favorites.

949
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think to me, if I was going to

950
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,919
Speaker 4: pick a non first year coach, Shanahan would be my pick.

951
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,760
Speaker 4: But to me, this is a this is another narrative award.

952
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 4: You need to win a bunch and you need to

953
00:42:57,520 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 4: have a good story and the first year thing, and

954
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 4: like turning a team around is just such an easy

955
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 4: story to tell for voters. The problem is, there's just

956
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 4: not a first year coach that I really love in

957
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 4: the spot this year. Normally there's just one that I'm

958
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 4: all in on. I tried to get there with Arthur

959
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:16,280
Speaker 4: Smith in Atlanta. I love Arthur Smith, but they traded

960
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:19,400
Speaker 4: Julio Jones. It is that just seems like a long

961
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 4: project to me. I think I could see Atlanta getting

962
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:24,359
Speaker 4: into the mix, but not quite winning enough for him

963
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:27,759
Speaker 4: to like, really impress people. So to me, the first

964
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 4: year coach, I'm gonna give you two. I like Brandon Staley,

965
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 4: but he's the favorite. He's at twelve to one. I

966
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 4: don't like the odds. I'm not playing it right now.

967
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 4: But I do like the Chargers. I like what they're doing.

968
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 4: I think the defense is gonna be a lot better.

969
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 4: I think Herbert's canna be really good. I've talked a

970
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 4: lot about Eckler, a lot of Chargers love. Here here's

971
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 4: the problem. Here's how the season starts for the Chargers

972
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 4: is Washington, Dallas, Kansas City, the Raiders, the Browns, and

973
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 4: the Ravens. That's a tough opening schedule that tells me

974
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 4: I should wait because This is all about getting in

975
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:03,080
Speaker 4: at the right time, as all betting picks are, and

976
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 4: they're probably going to lose. He's new, he's a new coach.

977
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 4: It's a new team. It's a young team. The defense

978
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 4: is figuring themselves out. Herbert's not just gonna suddenly be

979
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 4: an MVP overnight. If you're going with Staley, you like

980
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 4: him because they're going to close strong. So I want

981
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 4: to play him, but I'm not going to play him yet.

982
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 4: I'm gonna wait until you know, maybe they're two and

983
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:21,880
Speaker 4: two or two and three or something like that, and

984
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:24,319
Speaker 4: it's gonna give me a much better shot the other

985
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 4: guy that, frankly, I don't like at all. I'm just

986
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 4: totally just playing the number here. I'm looking way down

987
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 4: the list. I think there were seven first year coaches,

988
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 4: and no, I'm not going with with mister Kohley over

989
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:38,720
Speaker 4: in Houston because no one's even heard of him before.

990
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:41,320
Speaker 4: But I'm going with the second longest shot on the board,

991
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:43,840
Speaker 4: Nick Sirianni with the Philadelphia Eagles.

992
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 1: And here's the simple reason. He's fifty to one right now.

993
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 4: That division, I think is wide open as much as anywhere,

994
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:52,919
Speaker 4: and it's just not that hard for me to see

995
00:44:52,920 --> 00:44:55,759
Speaker 4: scenario where Philadelphia wins a division. They're not very good,

996
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:58,399
Speaker 4: but what if they are a little good. What if

997
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 4: the offensive line stays healthy, their defensive front is talented, Like,

998
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,360
Speaker 4: look that there's still talent there. Jalen Hurts could have

999
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 4: a good season. I don't think that he will, but

1000
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 4: he could. I'm not saying this is going to happen.

1001
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 4: I think that the Eagles could be really bad this year.

1002
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:13,479
Speaker 4: I think they have a chance to be the worst

1003
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 4: team in the NFL. But fifty to one, all I

1004
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 4: really need is the Eagles to, you know, get to

1005
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 4: like ten and seven or nine and six win the division.

1006
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 4: Maybe there's not a big standout favorite here. I just

1007
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:26,240
Speaker 4: got to take a little sprinkle on it at fifty

1008
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 4: to one. Really though, I think you and I can

1009
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 4: agree pretty much, just anyone but Cliff Kingsbury here. Just

1010
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 4: don't get your money on. Cliff Kingsbury saved mine at all.

1011
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 4: Go buy yacht, go do something else with your money,

1012
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:40,880
Speaker 4: or play it on. Comeback Player of the Year our

1013
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 4: last one here, So come back player of the year.

1014
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 1: How about that?

1015
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 4: For transitions, We've got a whole bunch of guys on

1016
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:49,359
Speaker 4: the board. Coming back from injuries or I don't even

1017
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 4: know what some of these guys are coming back from.

1018
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 4: But Rahim, who's your comeback Player of the year.

1019
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 2: First thing I want to say is you also don't

1020
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:58,439
Speaker 2: want to put your money on Zech Teler. I think

1021
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:01,319
Speaker 2: we both agreed at Zech Teller and Cliff Kingsbury are

1022
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 2: probably gonna be two of the first coaches fire, So

1023
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 2: you want to stay away from those guys. For me,

1024
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Dak Prescott. I mean, if I'm

1025
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:13,279
Speaker 2: taking him to win MVP, I gotta take him to

1026
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 2: win Comeback Player of the Year. This field is deep

1027
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 2: this year, but I really like Dak. I mean, it's

1028
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:23,320
Speaker 2: only plus two twenty. So if you want a long shot,

1029
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 2: I think you gotta go with Christian McCaffrey. He's gonna

1030
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:27,840
Speaker 2: be the focal point at the offense. He played just

1031
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:31,439
Speaker 2: three games last year and he still scored six touchdowns

1032
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 2: and had three hundred and seventy four yards from scrimmage.

1033
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:36,280
Speaker 2: This is a guy who can catch a hundred passes

1034
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 2: while getting two hundred carries. So that's my favorite. You know,

1035
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 2: long it's not necessarily a long shot, but at plus

1036
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 2: eight hundred, I think that's more than live.

1037
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:47,319
Speaker 1: So you have me and then you lost me.

1038
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 4: Well, you don't lose me. Christian McCaffrey's gonna be good. Look,

1039
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 4: Dak Prescott. You gotta bet Dak Prescott for Comeback Player

1040
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:55,320
Speaker 4: of the Year plus two to twenty.

1041
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 1: This is nuts.

1042
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 4: He should be like even odds versus the field. Dak

1043
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:03,920
Speaker 4: press is the quarterback of America's team unless he breaks

1044
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 4: several legs off again and doesn't play the season. Dak

1045
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 4: Prescott is going to be the comeback Player of the Year.

1046
00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:11,280
Speaker 1: He's good. He's gonna pass a lot.

1047
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 4: He's one of he's maybe like a top five quarterback

1048
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:15,919
Speaker 4: now now that we've had a few guys age out

1049
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 4: and retire, he you know, the injuries is not one

1050
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,040
Speaker 4: that's been giving you any troubles in camp. It's some

1051
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 4: other stuff that he's working his way through. Two twenty

1052
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 4: is insane on this. I think this is maybe the

1053
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:28,280
Speaker 4: best value of any of the things we talked about.

1054
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 4: Quarterbacks win this award. The last three Comeback Player of

1055
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 4: the Year, we're quarterbacks. Nine of the last thirteen were quarterbacks.

1056
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 1: Guess why.

1057
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:39,120
Speaker 4: It's a narrative award. We tell stories and who is

1058
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 4: a better story than Dak Prescott, who we all watched

1059
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:45,120
Speaker 4: his leg crumple under him last year and wondered if

1060
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 4: he'd ever play again. And somehow it is going to

1061
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 4: be on Monday Night Football, like twelve out of the

1062
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:51,640
Speaker 4: seventeen weeks, because that's what they do with the Cowboys.

1063
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 4: We're gonna be watching Dak all year do good stuff.

1064
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 4: I just think it's insane to be even at two twenty.

1065
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 4: I'm definitely getting my money in on that. I just

1066
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:01,359
Speaker 4: think that as a no brainer pick here.

1067
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, without a doubt.

1068
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 2: Oh so we're on the same page. I mean that's good, Yes,

1069
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,160
Speaker 2: for sure. I just wanted to make sure I give

1070
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:08,840
Speaker 2: people something of a longer shot.

1071
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:10,359
Speaker 4: If I had to take a longer shot. I tried

1072
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:12,440
Speaker 4: to go down down the board a little bit. I

1073
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 4: think Odell Beckham at twenty five to one, I could see,

1074
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 4: you know, like the Browns story and everything.

1075
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 1: But I don't know.

1076
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 4: I don't need any long shots on this one. I

1077
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:22,760
Speaker 4: love my long angles. I love to get my odds

1078
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:25,799
Speaker 4: there to me Dak Prescott Comeback of the Year. As

1079
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:27,359
Speaker 4: I'm funding all the rest of the bets that we've

1080
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:29,680
Speaker 4: talked about on the podcast, I'm gonna make some money

1081
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 4: off of Dak winning that one and then spend it

1082
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 4: all on all my other long shots the rest of

1083
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:36,320
Speaker 4: the way. So all right, Well, that's gonna wrap it

1084
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 4: up for our NFL Awards show here on the Action

1085
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:42,839
Speaker 4: Network podcast Good News. This was only part one. Make

1086
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 4: sure to come back next week for part two, where

1087
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 4: Raheem and I will be back with all sorts of

1088
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,799
Speaker 4: exotics and prop bets, yardage, TD leaders last and the

1089
00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 4: Division all sorts of stuff, And of course don't forget

1090
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 4: to watch this feed for next week for our deep

1091
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 4: dive on AFC and NFC win total episodes from Stucky,

1092
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 4: Chris Raybon and Sean Kerner. That's probably my favorite episodes

1093
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 4: of the season coming up. You can also follow Raheem

1094
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:10,359
Speaker 4: and Matt Moore and me for all things NBA at

1095
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:11,880
Speaker 4: our brand spanking.

1096
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:13,320
Speaker 1: New podcast feed Buckets.

1097
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:16,040
Speaker 4: Please make sure to subscribe to that and rate and

1098
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:18,719
Speaker 4: review that one and this one all of our new

1099
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 4: podcasts here at the Action Network. For Raheem Palmer, I'm

1100
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:25,879
Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson. This has been the Action Network podcast. We'll

1101
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:26,480
Speaker 4: see us soon.