WEBVTT - Goldman Compensation Ratio Hits Decade High

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Tim Stanevik. We're here every day bringing you the latest

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<v Speaker 1>radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio

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<v Speaker 1>or stream us live on YouTube and Bloomberg dot com. Alright,

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<v Speaker 1>the guys, the team, they have been talking about the

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<v Speaker 1>big bank earnings. We got a bunch of last week,

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<v Speaker 1>we got some this morning, some key ones kind of

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<v Speaker 1>getting ready to really wrap up this sector and start

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<v Speaker 1>to look forward at other earnings. But we've got to

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<v Speaker 1>talk a bit more about Goldman Sachs having their worst

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<v Speaker 1>day in terms of the stock price since this after

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<v Speaker 1>the bank reported worse than expected net revenue for the

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<v Speaker 1>fourth quarter. It's compensation ratio hitting a decade high. Tim, Yeah, well,

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<v Speaker 1>let's see how Alison Williams, a senior global bank analysts

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<v Speaker 1>for Bloomberg Intelligence characterizes the quarter. She's here in our

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactive at Broker's studio. Allison, good to have you

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<v Speaker 1>with us. Now you've been up since the early hours

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<v Speaker 1>following these Can you say whatever Core I called? Oh yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I did. I did have this in the intro. Ever

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<v Speaker 1>Core I s I. Analyst Glenn Shore called the results

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<v Speaker 1>they quote un characteristic dud. Do you agree? I listen.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think I think there are some positive

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<v Speaker 1>in the results. I think the main negative is costs

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<v Speaker 1>and saw them and had sort of signaled this. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, obviously, as the markets have been tougher this year,

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<v Speaker 1>analysts have been expecting, including myself, some of the competitive

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<v Speaker 1>compensation pressures to ease a bit, and that just has

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<v Speaker 1>not happened as much as we would have thought. I

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<v Speaker 1>think part of that is the boutiques are hiring. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that Wall Street has been slow to throw in

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<v Speaker 1>the towel on UM invested banking fees, even though we've

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<v Speaker 1>had UM it was like the worst equities year since

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty years. UM. It was a tough it was

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<v Speaker 1>that was a characteristic UM. But it doesn't. Yeah, And

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<v Speaker 1>so when I look at the revenue line. They're trading.

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<v Speaker 1>We you know, we look at their trading just to

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<v Speaker 1>see how their market share is going. That they still

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<v Speaker 1>earn more from trading than anyone else. That's a for business.

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<v Speaker 1>It's they've stuck to that franchise even when others have

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<v Speaker 1>pulled back, they're continuing to gain chair and their advisory revenue.

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<v Speaker 1>As as we said, fees are down, like you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they're about half, but within fees, Goldman is the advisory

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<v Speaker 1>fee leader and revenue there was much more resilient. We thought.

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<v Speaker 1>So those are the two positives that they are overwhelmed

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<v Speaker 1>by the cost side of things and the returns um

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<v Speaker 1>you know, single digit returns is not something that investors

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<v Speaker 1>want to say some One of the things I always

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<v Speaker 1>wondered too is, you know, we had Morgan Stanley right

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<v Speaker 1>that seemed to do really well. Today. I think of JP,

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<v Speaker 1>Morgan b of A, Wells like last week. They're not

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<v Speaker 1>all apples to apples. We know that. So I guess,

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<v Speaker 1>how do you look at Goldman's say yeah, they were

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<v Speaker 1>just fine, or like, how do you characterize it? So

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<v Speaker 1>I would say it's kind of the bigger, broader backdrop.

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<v Speaker 1>So so if we look across the core themes. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, in general, trade fees were very weak. Goldman

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<v Speaker 1>did better on that UM and Goldman did better on

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<v Speaker 1>the trading side of things. So those are their core businesses.

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<v Speaker 1>So UM fixed strong equities week, fees week are the

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<v Speaker 1>themes of the quarter. Relative to that UM, I would

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<v Speaker 1>say Goldman did a little bit better. JP, Morgan did

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<v Speaker 1>what worse? Morgan Stanley mixed UM as I said, the

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<v Speaker 1>costs were really the big negative for Goldman. That that's

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<v Speaker 1>really negative. We're gonna want to hear more about that

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<v Speaker 1>investor day, Morgan Stanley. UM, it was really about their

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<v Speaker 1>wealth business and that interest income, which was really disappointing

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<v Speaker 1>last week, holding up better than expected. And of course

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<v Speaker 1>we know it's all about the act. You know, how

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<v Speaker 1>are they how do they do versus expectations? And so

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<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of that is also the setup

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<v Speaker 1>also relates to how the stocks are reacting. How are

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<v Speaker 1>costs still such an issue right now? Allison, because I

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<v Speaker 1>thought we were at a point where you know, these

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<v Speaker 1>companies are you know, they're saying okay, well Goldman for example,

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<v Speaker 1>people right, people getting laid off, and then you know

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<v Speaker 1>you have other companies out there doing layoffs as well,

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<v Speaker 1>So it's not exactly you know, end of one in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of the fight for talent, So it's not. But

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<v Speaker 1>we also did see, um, you know, we saw the

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<v Speaker 1>competitive cost parcture. Pressure is also at JP Morgan, um

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<v Speaker 1>also at Morgan Stanley. We're seeing it, just not as acute.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think it is because um, as I said, so,

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<v Speaker 1>we heard a lot about the Goldman job cuts that

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<v Speaker 1>did not happen until this year, So that's event they

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<v Speaker 1>did say, Um, you know, it's something like uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to say four hundred or five hundred million

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<v Speaker 1>of severance expenses. I don't recall the exact number of hand,

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<v Speaker 1>but adding to some cost saves and all of that

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<v Speaker 1>will come into effect this year. They're having an investor

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<v Speaker 1>day at the end of February. I think we'll hear

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<v Speaker 1>a lot more on that and then, um, it's just that,

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<v Speaker 1>even though there are some pressures using right, the the

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<v Speaker 1>hiring pressure from fintech is not as acute. Obviously, they're

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<v Speaker 1>their cost of capital has gone up a lot. Things

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<v Speaker 1>are tougher there. It's like almost every other day we're

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<v Speaker 1>hearing about fintech layoffs, right, But macro hedge funds did

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<v Speaker 1>very well last year, so there's still competition from from

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<v Speaker 1>those firms. And then, as I said, if you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the boutique carring firms and there's a lot more

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<v Speaker 1>of those companies that are public now. Um, the pressure

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<v Speaker 1>is still on and it's not like you know, crypto

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<v Speaker 1>firms are coming out stealing workers like they were a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of years ago. But I do think about you

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<v Speaker 1>got an MBA Columbia, like I I think about do

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<v Speaker 1>people still get an m b A and say I

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<v Speaker 1>want to go to Goldman, I want to go to

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<v Speaker 1>JP Morgan or maybe maybe not? Like is it different

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<v Speaker 1>so that they do have to compete that much more?

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<v Speaker 1>I think they. I think they do. But I would

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<v Speaker 1>say that, you know, perhaps versus a couple of years

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<v Speaker 1>ago we talked about you know, you talked about crypto,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe the job opportunity is intact, might not seem so lucrative.

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<v Speaker 1>Stock options are a little less attractive. Um coming off

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<v Speaker 1>a year like last year. Um, And certainly the past

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't guarantee the future. But um, but but I think

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<v Speaker 1>that that does, you know, the most recent performance does

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<v Speaker 1>tend to stick into people's heads. Goldman and JP Morgan

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<v Speaker 1>will always give statistics about how competitive it is to

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<v Speaker 1>work for their firms, and certainly across Wall Street, it's

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<v Speaker 1>the numbers like, yeah, I think, I think, but I

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<v Speaker 1>do think it might be Goldman or it was it's

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<v Speaker 1>one of the firms that has given that staff that

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<v Speaker 1>they're harder to get into than some of the IVY leagues.

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<v Speaker 1>So we've heard from four banks last week, two big

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<v Speaker 1>banks today. How would you characterize in a few sentences

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<v Speaker 1>the commonalities between how these companies are seeing three in

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<v Speaker 1>the environment, costs are going to continue to be a

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<v Speaker 1>pressure and something that has to matter and not just compensation.

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<v Speaker 1>So we talked a lot about in the last few

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<v Speaker 1>men's competition but compensation, but there's also inflation and there's

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<v Speaker 1>also technology spending. Um, you know, banks have to invest

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<v Speaker 1>to compete. But then there is this question of business mixed.

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<v Speaker 1>So net interest income, even though there was some disappointment

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<v Speaker 1>in the guidance, some people were disappointed, still growth, they're

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<v Speaker 1>still expecting very good growth in net interest income after

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<v Speaker 1>amazing growth that we saw. So yeah, so there's there's sorry,

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<v Speaker 1>Like there's a pretty big top line to fund that

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<v Speaker 1>bottom line. But I think the differences who has you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the companies that are more Main Street versus Wall Street. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>so mainStreet interest income, there's a lot more to fund

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<v Speaker 1>those costs. That makes your overall profitability look better. JP

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<v Speaker 1>Morgan had huge costs increases last year, huge investments and

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<v Speaker 1>still managed to meet their over the cycle return on

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<v Speaker 1>equity tangile equity target, whereas Goldman Sachs, which is much

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<v Speaker 1>more focused on the markets. Um. You know, they kept

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<v Speaker 1>saying on their call several times today, it's it's the

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<v Speaker 1>first time in a few years that we saw equity

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<v Speaker 1>and bonds both get hit like this, you know. Morgan

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<v Speaker 1>Stanley CEO also say talking about like how many years

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<v Speaker 1>has offend since we saw this inflation, since we saw war.

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<v Speaker 1>So tough time for capital markets, tougher time for the

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<v Speaker 1>two that we reported today. So smart. Alison Williams, Senior

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<v Speaker 1>Global Banks analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Right here in studio

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<v Speaker 1>these is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Tim

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<v Speaker 1>Stenavic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, the forty one year old

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<v Speaker 1>Winkelvoss twins I believe it's pronouncer Win also known as

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<v Speaker 1>Camera and Cameron and Tyler Uh. They went head to

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<v Speaker 1>head with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, and they are now

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<v Speaker 1>part of the crypto collapse conversation. Now they're going after

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of others. I feel like this story just

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<v Speaker 1>as a reminder tim of kind of all the cryptic

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<v Speaker 1>kids out there saying I didn't do it, I didn't

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<v Speaker 1>do it. Well, that's exactly what Max Chafkin, Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>We calumnist writes about it. He notes that the winkel

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<v Speaker 1>By are the latest crypto founders to dodge blame. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>get into the story. We got Max on zoom along

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<v Speaker 1>with the editor of Bloomberg Business Week, Joel Webber. Joel's

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<v Speaker 1>with us in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. Joel. It's

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<v Speaker 1>it's all good in crypto when the price keeps going up.

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<v Speaker 1>All good, all good, and then it gets just more entertaining,

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<v Speaker 1>I guess. Uh. And and look the winkle Vye plural

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<v Speaker 1>um boy. They just I love them so much, like

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<v Speaker 1>it never gets old. Uh And obviously um yeah they

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<v Speaker 1>we we know them for for their Facebook days, but

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<v Speaker 1>the crypto stuff. They went all in on crypto. They

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<v Speaker 1>went talking their band, Well there's the band too, And

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<v Speaker 1>but they you know what Max, Max right, fall off

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<v Speaker 1>your chair. They're laughing. Um, is that you know they're

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<v Speaker 1>in a they're in the spotlight. Now they've got um

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<v Speaker 1>uh sec breathing down them and they have chosen to

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<v Speaker 1>go scorched earth on everyone. Yeah, and we're seeing this

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<v Speaker 1>a lot from from the world of crypto basically, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, starting starting with standbank than free to of

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<v Speaker 1>course dropped aw sub stack uh last week Uh, kind

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<v Speaker 1>of going down the line and the winkelvye uh bosses it.

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<v Speaker 1>It is kind of one of the richer ones, just

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<v Speaker 1>because they spent you know, basically the last few years

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<v Speaker 1>when they weren't rocking out in their band um, which

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<v Speaker 1>is topic we should we should, we should explore. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>They were talking about just how sober minded they were.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, they had these ads um that that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we're all over New York that said the revolution needs rules.

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<v Speaker 1>They were talking about how they were the only regulated

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<v Speaker 1>crypto exchange UM, which was true, um, although they weren't

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<v Speaker 1>regulated in every aspect. And this product Gemini Earn, which

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<v Speaker 1>you know we Business Week wrote about this and similar

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<v Speaker 1>things two years ago as as a potential area of

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<v Speaker 1>you know, exposure regulatory risk and so on, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the SEC has been investigating, and of course they finally

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<v Speaker 1>moved Cameron and Tyler, the two Winkle boss Brow There's

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<v Speaker 1>are acting as if this was sprung on them. This

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<v Speaker 1>was some kind of uh you know, political act by

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<v Speaker 1>the SEC, which I'm sure you know, I'm sure on

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<v Speaker 1>some levels political. You know, we're talking about the government here, um,

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<v Speaker 1>But this is something that was a long time coming.

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<v Speaker 1>This is not a surprise. The SEC had gone after

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<v Speaker 1>very similar groups, including one that the Winkelvoss you know,

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<v Speaker 1>had invested in. Uh So, so I don't think we

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<v Speaker 1>should be surprised by this at all. Okay, So, Jim

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<v Speaker 1>and I earn actually is the root of where the

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<v Speaker 1>current ire is directed. Right, So, so what what's going

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<v Speaker 1>on there? What? What do they what do the government

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<v Speaker 1>say they were doing? Well, the government has gone after Gemini,

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<v Speaker 1>which is the Winkel Bross Voss brothers, and Genesis, which

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<v Speaker 1>is Barry Silbert's digital currency group is the is the

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<v Speaker 1>parent um and they together, according to the government, we're

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<v Speaker 1>basically offering on registered securities. What they were doing is

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<v Speaker 1>offering this product that kind of looked like a bank account.

0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:56.720
<v Speaker 1>They would sort of talk about it as interest rate

0:11:56.880 --> 0:11:59.400
<v Speaker 1>and and talk about it as a you know, competitor

0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:01.760
<v Speaker 1>to like your savings account. Of course the interest rates

0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:04.199
<v Speaker 1>were much higher. It was not a bank, and as

0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:06.640
<v Speaker 1>the SEC is saying, you know, it was not security either,

0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:09.640
<v Speaker 1>and and so that's that's where we are now. So

0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:12.400
<v Speaker 1>I guess the question is what happens since all these

0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:14.280
<v Speaker 1>folks are kind of like, you know, I don't even

0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:17.040
<v Speaker 1>want to call them frenemies anymore. They're they're really going

0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:19.680
<v Speaker 1>after one another. And these are people who were, you know,

0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:21.719
<v Speaker 1>in the world of in the context of crypto, you know,

0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:24.360
<v Speaker 1>quote unquote longtime partners, Max. How do you see this

0:12:24.440 --> 0:12:26.080
<v Speaker 1>kind of thing shaking out? And it's also is this

0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:29.359
<v Speaker 1>kind of when in the early life cycle of new technologies,

0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:31.640
<v Speaker 1>because you've written about this this a lot in your

0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:35.200
<v Speaker 1>books and other things, is this kind of how things work? Well?

0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:37.400
<v Speaker 1>I do think they're parallels here in terms of the

0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:40.120
<v Speaker 1>like the approach that that these crypto guys followed to

0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:43.240
<v Speaker 1>two Silicon Valley um. You know, when I think back

0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:46.240
<v Speaker 1>to Uber right where Uber basically rolled out this um

0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:49.560
<v Speaker 1>service that was largely illegal, uh, you know in most

0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:54.000
<v Speaker 1>localities and essentially dared regulators to make it legal. Um.

0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:57.120
<v Speaker 1>And I think the crypto guys, including the Winklevoss brothers,

0:12:57.360 --> 0:12:59.920
<v Speaker 1>basically did the same thing. And and they have been

0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:04.120
<v Speaker 1>in for years kind of maneuvering and trying to create

0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:08.600
<v Speaker 1>basically trying to romance uh DC while also maybe putting

0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:11.160
<v Speaker 1>pressure on d C, playing regulators off, you know, off

0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:12.800
<v Speaker 1>one another. We saw a lot of this from Sam

0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:15.559
<v Speaker 1>bankmun Freed. And now that the music has stopped, now

0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:19.120
<v Speaker 1>that we've seen some serious issues, we have a real slowdown.

0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:22.000
<v Speaker 1>We have you know, you know, investor pain that you know,

0:13:22.040 --> 0:13:25.720
<v Speaker 1>people lost money that who probably didn't deserve it. Um.

0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:29.000
<v Speaker 1>Now that story is getting harder, and I think that's

0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 1>part of why they're getting more aggressive, basically looking you know,

0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:34.400
<v Speaker 1>hopefully the government will focus on the other guy. That's

0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:36.920
<v Speaker 1>that's the basic idea here. You know what, Matt, I'm

0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:40.360
<v Speaker 1>curious Max, rather, is there something generational you think going

0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:42.960
<v Speaker 1>on in terms of kind of a younger bunch of

0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:46.160
<v Speaker 1>folks in this industry and and very involved in developing it.

0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:50.800
<v Speaker 1>Is there something like I said, generational that causes so

0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:52.680
<v Speaker 1>many to say I didn't do it, you did it,

0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:57.600
<v Speaker 1>or or just point the finger and it wasn't. I mean,

0:13:58.440 --> 0:13:59.920
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if it's I don't know if it

0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:03.240
<v Speaker 1>is generational, or if it's just a response to like,

0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:06.400
<v Speaker 1>this looks bad. I mean, you know, you've got I

0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:09.839
<v Speaker 1>don't really know. The Winklevoss brothers kind of frame their

0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:12.560
<v Speaker 1>company as this super safe, super secure thing, and now

0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:15.640
<v Speaker 1>you have customers, hundreds of thousands of customers who can

0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:19.600
<v Speaker 1>access their money, and so I don't I think maybe strategically,

0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:21.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, this is their their only option is to

0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:24.120
<v Speaker 1>try to try to pin it on somebody else. We've

0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:25.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, we I've talked about this, I think on

0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:28.160
<v Speaker 1>this show earlier. You know, maybe it's this SECS fault.

0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:29.760
<v Speaker 1>Maybe it's Sam Meg than Free. It's fault. It's gotta

0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:31.800
<v Speaker 1>be somebody's fault, as long as it's not me, um.

0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 1>And I think really that's to deal with the brand

0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:37.440
<v Speaker 1>damage that they've caused themselves. And and you know, and

0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:39.880
<v Speaker 1>this is of course some of this stuff Um the

0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:43.120
<v Speaker 1>Winkle boss Uh brothers could not control. However, when you

0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:46.840
<v Speaker 1>promote something as safe and which which I think they did,

0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:49.000
<v Speaker 1>and you and your customers lose your money, I mean,

0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:51.720
<v Speaker 1>I think it's reasonable ask you know what happened. Okay,

0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:53.720
<v Speaker 1>what I really want to know, Max has how much

0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:57.320
<v Speaker 1>of their bands music you listen to to to report

0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:01.600
<v Speaker 1>on this story? You know, I did not suffer that much,

0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:04.440
<v Speaker 1>I'll say, but although I have listened listen to some tunes,

0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:07.560
<v Speaker 1>I guess this was part of a you know, n

0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.880
<v Speaker 1>f T promotion scheme. I tried to figure out, like,

0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:13.920
<v Speaker 1>were they paying their uh the audiences because the music

0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:16.280
<v Speaker 1>sounds so bad. It's hard to imagine somebody like going

0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:19.120
<v Speaker 1>to you know, you know, going to the show on purpose.

0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:25.000
<v Speaker 1>They're they're billionaires and and maybe it's possible I guess

0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:26.800
<v Speaker 1>that the allure here was like, Wow, we're going to

0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:30.000
<v Speaker 1>see these like cryptomobiles pretend to be rock stars, and uh,

0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:32.360
<v Speaker 1>it's hard to imagine that would draw huge crowds. But

0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:35.600
<v Speaker 1>either way, I mean, it really feels unfortunate. It feels

0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:37.640
<v Speaker 1>like at a time when they really should have been

0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:41.000
<v Speaker 1>paying attention, you know, to things like risk and and

0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:42.440
<v Speaker 1>you know what they were doing their money. They were

0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:44.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, rocking out, and we all need to rock

0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:48.400
<v Speaker 1>out sometimes, I guess, But but again it's not the

0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:51.000
<v Speaker 1>best look at this. Okay, if I was going to

0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:56.440
<v Speaker 1>rock out, which cover would you recommend uh that I

0:15:56.520 --> 0:16:01.240
<v Speaker 1>check out first, just quickly the journey. Don't stop. Believe

0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:04.960
<v Speaker 1>I was hoping. It's a little it's it's a little bit.

0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:09.520
<v Speaker 1>I'll be back in, but we'll put We're gonna put

0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:12.600
<v Speaker 1>out the link alright. This, by the way, is today's

0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:16.120
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week daily newsletter. In the newsletter, it's also

0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:19.320
<v Speaker 1>in the upcoming new issue of Bloomberg Business Week. Thanks

0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:22.760
<v Speaker 1>to Max and to Joel. You're listening to Bloomberg Business

0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:26.680
<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Messer and Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:30.600
<v Speaker 1>One is raising money at an ever rising valuation, the

0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:32.680
<v Speaker 1>other has been pummeled by the market. One as a

0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:35.640
<v Speaker 1>highly capable number two exact keeping it on track, the

0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:39.200
<v Speaker 1>other under fire about succession planning, What are we talking about?

0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:41.840
<v Speaker 1>SpaceX and Tesla. First of all, that's what we're talking about,

0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:45.440
<v Speaker 1>and they both count elon Musk CEO. Here's here's the thing, though,

0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:48.240
<v Speaker 1>Whereas Tesla has withered since the Boss embarked on his

0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:52.160
<v Speaker 1>takeover of Twitter, SpaceX is flourishing. Some even suggest this

0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:55.120
<v Speaker 1>is because of, rather than in spite of its CEO

0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:58.560
<v Speaker 1>playing a less active role. These are all the words

0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:01.360
<v Speaker 1>of Lauren Grush she's a blue Berg News space reporter.

0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:04.080
<v Speaker 1>She's got any feature out today, it's a fantastic one,

0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:07.040
<v Speaker 1>talking all about what's going on at SpaceX and the

0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:10.400
<v Speaker 1>success that the company has had of late and even

0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:12.360
<v Speaker 1>over the last few years. She joins us now via

0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.280
<v Speaker 1>zoom from Austin, Texas. Lauren, good to have you with

0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:21.520
<v Speaker 1>us this afternoon. So why is SpaceX doing so well? Well?

0:17:21.560 --> 0:17:24.719
<v Speaker 1>I think the biggest thing is that, you know, SpaceX

0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:28.200
<v Speaker 1>has really well positioned executives. They have a very capable

0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:32.320
<v Speaker 1>president and CEO, Gwen Shotwell, and they also have a

0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:34.840
<v Speaker 1>lot of vps that are already in place with these

0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:38.320
<v Speaker 1>various big projects that they're working on. I make a

0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:41.720
<v Speaker 1>note of Mark Jenkoza recently took over Starship, which is

0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:46.520
<v Speaker 1>SpaceX is big, big program to create a massive new

0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.840
<v Speaker 1>vehicle to send humans to the Moon and Mars. And

0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:52.080
<v Speaker 1>it's not just Mark. There are other vps that are,

0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:56.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, in key positions that that standardize the workflow

0:17:56.920 --> 0:18:01.000
<v Speaker 1>and make sure the company is running and Elon isn't

0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:04.199
<v Speaker 1>isn't around, you know. It's so this is such an

0:18:04.200 --> 0:18:06.760
<v Speaker 1>interesting story because I do feel like is this almost

0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:09.040
<v Speaker 1>a b school case study of like Okay, here's what

0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:11.480
<v Speaker 1>Ellen can do when he puts you to certain people

0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:14.280
<v Speaker 1>in charge, because he has so much under you know,

0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:18.240
<v Speaker 1>his umbrella at this point, Um, what is interesting about

0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:23.200
<v Speaker 1>the executives who brought them in? Was it all Ellen's doing? Yeah?

0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:26.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean these are handpicked by Elon and and let's

0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:28.560
<v Speaker 1>let's be clear here. I mean this isn't to say

0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:31.960
<v Speaker 1>that Ellen doesn't have a profound influence on SpaceX and

0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:35.200
<v Speaker 1>SpaceX culture. I mean he is the one at the

0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:38.160
<v Speaker 1>set it in the article, He sets the long term vision,

0:18:38.200 --> 0:18:41.159
<v Speaker 1>the long term goals. I mean the express purpose of

0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:44.040
<v Speaker 1>SpaceX is to get some Mars right, that is still

0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:48.119
<v Speaker 1>very much the long term goal of the company. And

0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:52.080
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to various design design decisions, you know

0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:56.200
<v Speaker 1>Ellen makes puts his stamp on those things as well. Um,

0:18:56.240 --> 0:18:59.800
<v Speaker 1>you know the push to reuse rockets, um, you know,

0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.879
<v Speaker 1>even he and that, and it also has a lasting

0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:06.120
<v Speaker 1>impact on the design of certain vehicles. Right. One former

0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:08.840
<v Speaker 1>employee was telling me that, you know, there there were

0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:12.919
<v Speaker 1>plans to propulsively land the Crew Dragon, and while that

0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:15.840
<v Speaker 1>was scrapped, those plans are still in the bones of

0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:19.960
<v Speaker 1>that vehicle. So space So Ellen still is very critical

0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:22.879
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to guiding the company and also the

0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:25.080
<v Speaker 1>people that he puts in charge. But when it comes

0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:28.320
<v Speaker 1>to the day to day interactions the design and you know,

0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:32.600
<v Speaker 1>scheduled decisions, that's where um, you know, he's not as

0:19:32.640 --> 0:19:36.040
<v Speaker 1>necessary to make move those things forward. So how is

0:19:36.119 --> 0:19:38.240
<v Speaker 1>And I know this is a story about SpaceX more

0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:41.119
<v Speaker 1>so than it is about about Tesla or about Twitter,

0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:44.840
<v Speaker 1>but but how does that management style differ from what

0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:47.439
<v Speaker 1>Musk shows at the other companies that he's at the

0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:50.920
<v Speaker 1>helm of. Well, I'm not as well versed in Tesla,

0:19:51.000 --> 0:19:53.000
<v Speaker 1>but I have been following the Twitter stuff, and a

0:19:53.080 --> 0:19:56.680
<v Speaker 1>lot of the company employees that I spoke to say that,

0:19:56.880 --> 0:19:59.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, watching the Twitter stuff play out online, and

0:19:59.640 --> 0:20:02.920
<v Speaker 1>the me feels very similar to some of the things

0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:05.920
<v Speaker 1>that happened at SpaceX. Is a lot of chaos when

0:20:05.920 --> 0:20:11.000
<v Speaker 1>it comes to meetings being scheduled and then canceled. Also, um,

0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:16.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, just him inserting himself into things and making demands.

0:20:16.160 --> 0:20:18.040
<v Speaker 1>You know, there was a lot of talk about how

0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:23.320
<v Speaker 1>he likes to make design decisions that you know, create

0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:25.920
<v Speaker 1>all of this work, like something might have too many wires.

0:20:26.119 --> 0:20:30.080
<v Speaker 1>He's always in service of simplifying design, whether or not

0:20:30.160 --> 0:20:32.520
<v Speaker 1>that that is actually helpful to the design at the

0:20:32.720 --> 0:20:35.560
<v Speaker 1>in the long term is up for debate. But you know,

0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:37.280
<v Speaker 1>he likes to come in and say, you know, let's

0:20:37.320 --> 0:20:40.240
<v Speaker 1>get rid of this part, let's get rid of this component,

0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:42.960
<v Speaker 1>let's get rid of these wires, and then that creates

0:20:42.960 --> 0:20:45.560
<v Speaker 1>a lot of work for people. And then sometimes that

0:20:45.600 --> 0:20:47.800
<v Speaker 1>stuff needs to be added back in at the end

0:20:47.800 --> 0:20:50.760
<v Speaker 1>of the day, and and that work will have all

0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:53.840
<v Speaker 1>been kind of reversed in the law. So Lord, can

0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:56.439
<v Speaker 1>we go as far as to say, um, the folks

0:20:56.440 --> 0:20:58.239
<v Speaker 1>at space X are kind of happy that he's been

0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:01.760
<v Speaker 1>distracted with Twitter right now. Obviously didn't speak to every

0:21:01.800 --> 0:21:06.160
<v Speaker 1>single employee at SpaceX, but of the people I spoke with, yes,

0:21:06.160 --> 0:21:09.119
<v Speaker 1>there is a general sense of relief, uh, and just

0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:14.920
<v Speaker 1>that you know, it's less less unexpected meetings, less unexpected,

0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:19.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, having to rework their designs. You know, it's

0:21:19.119 --> 0:21:21.880
<v Speaker 1>more of a semblance of calm because you know, he's

0:21:21.880 --> 0:21:25.400
<v Speaker 1>not inserting himself into these workflows that have become standardized

0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:28.960
<v Speaker 1>and and you know, schedules that are pretty that are

0:21:29.400 --> 0:21:31.520
<v Speaker 1>more or less routine. Hey, can you talk to us

0:21:31.520 --> 0:21:33.520
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more about Gwen shot Well, she's the

0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:37.159
<v Speaker 1>president and CEO of SpaceX, and she's a name that

0:21:37.200 --> 0:21:40.000
<v Speaker 1>comes up a lot when you read about the success

0:21:40.040 --> 0:21:44.920
<v Speaker 1>of SpaceX. Yeah. Absolutely, I think from from both internal

0:21:44.920 --> 0:21:47.800
<v Speaker 1>and external perspectives, Guenn is kind of seen as the

0:21:47.840 --> 0:21:51.080
<v Speaker 1>one running the show, especially when Elon is not around.

0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:53.200
<v Speaker 1>She's very much involved in the business side of things

0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:57.040
<v Speaker 1>as the CEO, and she's just kind of, you know,

0:21:57.560 --> 0:22:00.800
<v Speaker 1>this pillar of strength for most of the Space Sex employees.

0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:03.960
<v Speaker 1>But it's also important to remember that she does, you know,

0:22:04.240 --> 0:22:06.840
<v Speaker 1>report to Elon, and so every now and then you'll

0:22:06.840 --> 0:22:09.840
<v Speaker 1>see her having to execute Elon's vision at the end

0:22:09.880 --> 0:22:13.080
<v Speaker 1>of the day. She does report to him, so you know,

0:22:13.160 --> 0:22:15.640
<v Speaker 1>if he makes the demand, she's got to do it.

0:22:15.920 --> 0:22:18.600
<v Speaker 1>And also, you know you saw that with Sometimes she

0:22:18.640 --> 0:22:22.679
<v Speaker 1>can take on Ellen's role a bit when you know

0:22:22.960 --> 0:22:25.360
<v Speaker 1>negative things are happening in with the company. We saw this,

0:22:25.720 --> 0:22:29.240
<v Speaker 1>uh last year, when you know, a bunch of employees

0:22:29.280 --> 0:22:33.719
<v Speaker 1>had penned an open letter denouncing Elon's tactics and our

0:22:34.040 --> 0:22:37.800
<v Speaker 1>antics online, and you know, she took it upon herself

0:22:37.880 --> 0:22:41.800
<v Speaker 1>to fire those employees. So sometimes she can she can

0:22:41.800 --> 0:22:44.240
<v Speaker 1>take on a bit of an Elon rolls as well,

0:22:44.280 --> 0:22:46.440
<v Speaker 1>But more or less she's kind of the steady hand

0:22:46.800 --> 0:22:49.359
<v Speaker 1>at the company. I wonder too, Lauren. And you know

0:22:49.359 --> 0:22:51.639
<v Speaker 1>you've done so much reporting on SpaceX, but it's a

0:22:51.680 --> 0:22:55.040
<v Speaker 1>private company, and we do see the valuation because you know,

0:22:55.080 --> 0:22:57.439
<v Speaker 1>the company has recently raised money, so we see what

0:22:57.480 --> 0:23:00.280
<v Speaker 1>the market is valuing the company yet, but we don't see,

0:23:00.320 --> 0:23:02.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, quarterly earnings from the company. We don't see

0:23:02.760 --> 0:23:04.600
<v Speaker 1>updates that are required as a result of being a

0:23:04.600 --> 0:23:07.359
<v Speaker 1>publicly traded company like we do with Tesla, you know,

0:23:07.440 --> 0:23:09.760
<v Speaker 1>before Elon Musk bought it, like we saw with with Twitter.

0:23:10.080 --> 0:23:13.280
<v Speaker 1>And I'm wondering if that has anything to do with

0:23:13.280 --> 0:23:19.080
<v Speaker 1>the success of SpaceX. UM. You know, I would love

0:23:19.119 --> 0:23:23.639
<v Speaker 1>to know more financials of SpaceX. I think everybody would. UM.

0:23:23.680 --> 0:23:25.639
<v Speaker 1>I know there's been talk about whether or not that

0:23:25.720 --> 0:23:31.119
<v Speaker 1>valuation is warranted or if it's overhyped. UM. I'll just

0:23:31.160 --> 0:23:34.560
<v Speaker 1>say this, and we're talking about billion dollar valuation right

0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:39.560
<v Speaker 1>right exactly. UM, I'll say this, SpaceX is a has

0:23:39.640 --> 0:23:43.399
<v Speaker 1>become a major, if not the most dominant player in

0:23:43.440 --> 0:23:46.720
<v Speaker 1>the US launch market right now. I mean they are

0:23:46.760 --> 0:23:50.480
<v Speaker 1>a valuable NASA partner. I mean they are the starship.

0:23:50.600 --> 0:23:54.720
<v Speaker 1>The vehicle I mentioned is has a NASA contract to

0:23:54.800 --> 0:23:59.600
<v Speaker 1>eventually land NASA astronauts on the Moon this decade. And

0:24:00.080 --> 0:24:02.720
<v Speaker 1>you know they are working. They have these crazy goals

0:24:02.720 --> 0:24:06.240
<v Speaker 1>of launching up to a hundred flights this year. Many

0:24:06.280 --> 0:24:09.359
<v Speaker 1>of those will be Starlink launches to build out the

0:24:09.400 --> 0:24:14.840
<v Speaker 1>company's Internet from Space initiative, which now boasts a million subscribers.

0:24:15.359 --> 0:24:19.159
<v Speaker 1>And they and as we wait for ul A to

0:24:19.240 --> 0:24:23.280
<v Speaker 1>create its next to transition to its new vehicle, the Vulcan,

0:24:24.040 --> 0:24:27.560
<v Speaker 1>SpaceX is kind of the main launch provider at the moment,

0:24:28.240 --> 0:24:32.080
<v Speaker 1>constantly racking up contracts with the Defense Department and NASA.

0:24:32.680 --> 0:24:36.560
<v Speaker 1>So I mean, there can be debate over whether the

0:24:36.640 --> 0:24:39.919
<v Speaker 1>numbers are right for the valuation, but ultimately SpaceX is

0:24:40.680 --> 0:24:45.679
<v Speaker 1>a critical us A company in the space industry. Right now, Hey, listen,

0:24:46.040 --> 0:24:48.760
<v Speaker 1>just one last question, Lauren, Like I think of back

0:24:48.800 --> 0:24:52.760
<v Speaker 1>in eighteen, it was in the summer of Max Jeffkin

0:24:52.840 --> 0:24:55.000
<v Speaker 1>and Dana Hall put out a story. It was Business

0:24:55.040 --> 0:24:58.160
<v Speaker 1>Week the Space Issue and space X a secret weapon?

0:24:58.240 --> 0:25:01.159
<v Speaker 1>Is Quinn Chutwell? And I do you think about you know,

0:25:01.240 --> 0:25:03.479
<v Speaker 1>her role and her success. She's not been there for

0:25:03.520 --> 0:25:09.560
<v Speaker 1>several years, and you know, does the investment communities say,

0:25:09.600 --> 0:25:15.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, as goes Gwynn as goes you know, SpaceX,

0:25:15.400 --> 0:25:19.080
<v Speaker 1>Like how important is she? As you say, Ellen puts

0:25:19.080 --> 0:25:21.040
<v Speaker 1>his stamp on it, and he gets involved in the

0:25:21.119 --> 0:25:25.240
<v Speaker 1>long vision. But also how you know important is the future?

0:25:25.760 --> 0:25:28.000
<v Speaker 1>You know, how much of it is gwyn connected to

0:25:28.040 --> 0:25:31.120
<v Speaker 1>that company? I'm just curious what you hear generally. I mean,

0:25:31.119 --> 0:25:33.600
<v Speaker 1>I think it's certainly a major part, you know, and

0:25:33.720 --> 0:25:36.359
<v Speaker 1>you see this with his other companies, like with Tesla

0:25:36.440 --> 0:25:38.880
<v Speaker 1>for instance, doesn't really have a Gwen equivalent. I mean,

0:25:39.280 --> 0:25:43.000
<v Speaker 1>obviously they have their own executives, but no one quite

0:25:43.040 --> 0:25:44.840
<v Speaker 1>liked Gwen in this in the sense of, you know,

0:25:44.880 --> 0:25:47.160
<v Speaker 1>how she runs things and handles things. So I think

0:25:47.200 --> 0:25:50.879
<v Speaker 1>she's definitely a very big part of the successful equation.

0:25:50.920 --> 0:25:52.719
<v Speaker 1>But it's also has to do with, you know, the

0:25:52.760 --> 0:25:57.280
<v Speaker 1>engineers and the workflows that they've established at the company,

0:25:57.440 --> 0:25:59.720
<v Speaker 1>So there is that as well. We think about STEM

0:25:59.760 --> 0:26:02.840
<v Speaker 1>company news, right, this is really truly a STEM company,

0:26:03.080 --> 0:26:08.040
<v Speaker 1>doesn't get Yeah, exactly, Um, great stuff. So glad we

0:26:08.119 --> 0:26:10.520
<v Speaker 1>got some time with you. Lauren Grush she space reporter

0:26:10.600 --> 0:26:13.919
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News, joining us via Zoom from Austin, Texas,

0:26:13.960 --> 0:26:18.120
<v Speaker 1>which we of course knows where Tesla is headquartered. Everything right. Yeah, well,

0:26:18.119 --> 0:26:21.119
<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't say everything well. I mean it was the

0:26:21.119 --> 0:26:24.439
<v Speaker 1>theme of what was two Carol World. His companies were

0:26:24.440 --> 0:26:27.119
<v Speaker 1>moving from California. But isn't that he shifted his headquarters

0:26:27.520 --> 0:26:30.640
<v Speaker 1>solo his real estate Elon Muskin said, you know, yeah,

0:26:30.640 --> 0:26:34.280
<v Speaker 1>but you know, reminds us there are significant operations for

0:26:34.280 --> 0:26:38.280
<v Speaker 1>for Tesla in California. Still, that's facility. That is a

0:26:38.320 --> 0:26:40.600
<v Speaker 1>really good point. Um, great story. Check it out. Just

0:26:40.640 --> 0:26:43.119
<v Speaker 1>head to Bloomberg dot com or check out Lauren at

0:26:43.200 --> 0:26:46.840
<v Speaker 1>Lauren Grush on Twitter, Carol Mass, Tim Stanovic, Bloomberg Business Week,

0:26:47.000 --> 0:26:55.119
<v Speaker 1>right here on Bloomberg Radio Road Journal. Yeah but you

0:26:55.200 --> 0:27:00.280
<v Speaker 1>let me drive, no, no, no, all right, please album

0:27:00.320 --> 0:27:06.520
<v Speaker 1>goody revels. I want to drive. It's a good question.

0:27:10.200 --> 0:27:16.639
<v Speaker 1>This is the Drive to the Clothes on Bluebird Radio.

0:27:16.800 --> 0:27:19.200
<v Speaker 1>All right, everybody, we've got seventeen minutes left to today's

0:27:19.240 --> 0:27:21.560
<v Speaker 1>trading session, getting ready to wrap up the first trading

0:27:21.640 --> 0:27:24.480
<v Speaker 1>day here in the US of the week, and of

0:27:24.480 --> 0:27:27.399
<v Speaker 1>course Charlie breaking down. Equities were offer highs and lows

0:27:27.440 --> 0:27:29.320
<v Speaker 1>of the session. Got a lot of economic news, a

0:27:29.320 --> 0:27:32.200
<v Speaker 1>lot of earnings to get through. I feel like we're

0:27:32.200 --> 0:27:35.120
<v Speaker 1>gonna trade from day to day based on the tone

0:27:35.160 --> 0:27:37.399
<v Speaker 1>and the news. Tim, Yeah, I think so too, and

0:27:37.480 --> 0:27:39.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean I certainly see that playing out today with

0:27:39.440 --> 0:27:43.040
<v Speaker 1>what Goldman sack, what's happening to Goldman Sachs shares as well.

0:27:43.240 --> 0:27:45.240
<v Speaker 1>Let's get into it with Data. Doria, the co c

0:27:45.359 --> 0:27:48.400
<v Speaker 1>i O of the independent investment advisor invest net Data,

0:27:48.480 --> 0:27:51.439
<v Speaker 1>joins us this afternoon via zoom from Pennsylvania. Dana, Good

0:27:51.480 --> 0:27:54.040
<v Speaker 1>to have you back with us. How are you great?

0:27:54.040 --> 0:27:56.400
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for bringing me on. Yeah, thanks so much for

0:27:56.560 --> 0:27:59.360
<v Speaker 1>joining us. So what's your outlook for for the year? Igain?

0:27:59.359 --> 0:28:00.920
<v Speaker 1>I want to kind of move be on today's trade

0:28:00.920 --> 0:28:05.800
<v Speaker 1>and get an idea on on what you're thinking for well.

0:28:05.840 --> 0:28:08.560
<v Speaker 1>I think the consensus at this point has been first

0:28:08.600 --> 0:28:10.320
<v Speaker 1>half of the year is going to be difficult. Still,

0:28:10.400 --> 0:28:12.359
<v Speaker 1>We've got a lot that the markets still have to

0:28:12.400 --> 0:28:15.680
<v Speaker 1>work through. Um. Not not the least of which of course,

0:28:15.800 --> 0:28:19.960
<v Speaker 1>is becoming debt ceiling fight, but also you know, continued

0:28:20.040 --> 0:28:22.520
<v Speaker 1>need for the Fed to sort of stay firm on rates,

0:28:22.760 --> 0:28:25.720
<v Speaker 1>even if hiking can be reduced a little bit. Um.

0:28:25.760 --> 0:28:28.800
<v Speaker 1>The notion of a pivot is probably unlikely at least

0:28:28.880 --> 0:28:30.919
<v Speaker 1>until the second half of the year, but there is

0:28:30.920 --> 0:28:33.840
<v Speaker 1>a growing chorus. I think around the notion that you know,

0:28:33.920 --> 0:28:36.080
<v Speaker 1>second half of the year could be could pick up,

0:28:36.560 --> 0:28:39.280
<v Speaker 1>and so you know, kind of UH in our space

0:28:39.440 --> 0:28:42.920
<v Speaker 1>talking to advisors, talking to UM you know, home offices.

0:28:43.000 --> 0:28:45.560
<v Speaker 1>It really is about sort of having the discipline, hanging

0:28:45.600 --> 0:28:49.880
<v Speaker 1>on and and hopefully looking forward to that comeback. Hey, Danny,

0:28:49.880 --> 0:28:53.520
<v Speaker 1>your firm, You guys offer investors et f mutual funds,

0:28:53.640 --> 0:28:58.160
<v Speaker 1>liquid all portfolios. You also do UH fund strategies, portfolios

0:28:58.160 --> 0:29:00.160
<v Speaker 1>that combine a bunch of strategies in our manner by

0:29:00.200 --> 0:29:03.480
<v Speaker 1>independent firms. Where are you moving money to? Where you're

0:29:03.520 --> 0:29:07.240
<v Speaker 1>allocating more new money to right now? And why give

0:29:07.240 --> 0:29:10.240
<v Speaker 1>me an idea of where it's all going. So I

0:29:10.240 --> 0:29:15.960
<v Speaker 1>would say, you know, of course, we facilitate UM portfolios

0:29:16.000 --> 0:29:20.200
<v Speaker 1>across any number of different types of strategies, and you know,

0:29:20.320 --> 0:29:23.040
<v Speaker 1>very strategic. For the most part, advisors look to keep

0:29:23.080 --> 0:29:26.680
<v Speaker 1>their clients and portfolios that are are allocated around their

0:29:26.760 --> 0:29:29.440
<v Speaker 1>risk tolerance right their discipline. But what I'll say is,

0:29:29.480 --> 0:29:32.320
<v Speaker 1>at a high level, in answer to your question, fixed

0:29:32.320 --> 0:29:34.520
<v Speaker 1>income is where a lot of interest is being pointed

0:29:34.600 --> 0:29:36.920
<v Speaker 1>right now. And of course it's because we've experienced a

0:29:36.960 --> 0:29:39.960
<v Speaker 1>lot of the pain of rising rates already last year.

0:29:40.440 --> 0:29:42.000
<v Speaker 1>You know, much of what we expect is going to

0:29:42.080 --> 0:29:44.360
<v Speaker 1>happen in fixed income has already been priced in at

0:29:44.360 --> 0:29:47.640
<v Speaker 1>this point. And you know, whereas fixed income took a

0:29:47.680 --> 0:29:51.080
<v Speaker 1>real beating, you're now in a position where there's concerned

0:29:51.120 --> 0:29:55.080
<v Speaker 1>about recession. You know, you're that standard sixty forty that

0:29:55.080 --> 0:29:58.440
<v Speaker 1>that was really had a problem last year and you know,

0:29:58.520 --> 0:30:02.880
<v Speaker 1>sort of historically precedented. Um, you know, double digit losses

0:30:02.880 --> 0:30:05.880
<v Speaker 1>on both sides of that sixty that forty the equity

0:30:05.920 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 1>fixed income. Now we're in the market that's that looks

0:30:09.040 --> 0:30:11.840
<v Speaker 1>more you know, traditional to what we would expect in

0:30:11.960 --> 0:30:15.840
<v Speaker 1>terms of Okay, the fixed incomposition provides ballast to that portfolio.

0:30:16.200 --> 0:30:19.640
<v Speaker 1>We're not expecting huge losses there anymore because rate increase

0:30:19.720 --> 0:30:21.640
<v Speaker 1>is already there. And I think a lot of clients too,

0:30:21.880 --> 0:30:23.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, in the in the run up proceeding all

0:30:23.840 --> 0:30:27.240
<v Speaker 1>of this, you get overweighted inequities and it's time to

0:30:27.600 --> 0:30:29.720
<v Speaker 1>take a look at you know what that mixes and

0:30:29.920 --> 0:30:32.080
<v Speaker 1>and do you have enough fixed income in the portfolio?

0:30:32.440 --> 0:30:35.000
<v Speaker 1>What about when it comes to reasons of the world

0:30:35.320 --> 0:30:39.160
<v Speaker 1>where you're advising clients right now to to put their money. Yeah,

0:30:39.200 --> 0:30:42.560
<v Speaker 1>I think valuations favor and international look. So I mean,

0:30:42.640 --> 0:30:45.640
<v Speaker 1>of course, you know, markets are cyclical. What's worked in

0:30:45.640 --> 0:30:48.280
<v Speaker 1>the last ten years doesn't necessarily tend to be the

0:30:48.280 --> 0:30:50.480
<v Speaker 1>best place to be for the next ten years. UM.

0:30:50.720 --> 0:30:53.760
<v Speaker 1>So when you're looking at these portfolios that have become

0:30:53.920 --> 0:30:57.800
<v Speaker 1>very US biased, and you know the notion that, hey, um,

0:30:57.800 --> 0:31:00.800
<v Speaker 1>how much international do we need? So many conversations over

0:31:00.840 --> 0:31:03.200
<v Speaker 1>the last you know, five years around do I even

0:31:03.320 --> 0:31:06.920
<v Speaker 1>need international stocks in the portfolio? Um? You know what,

0:31:06.920 --> 0:31:09.880
<v Speaker 1>what's the real outlook there? I think we're increasingly seeing

0:31:09.920 --> 0:31:12.360
<v Speaker 1>an interest now in exactly what you're saying, you know,

0:31:12.520 --> 0:31:15.520
<v Speaker 1>and I would recommend, of course, and diversified view on

0:31:15.640 --> 0:31:19.000
<v Speaker 1>international markets. You know, we can talk about specific regions

0:31:19.040 --> 0:31:22.120
<v Speaker 1>and China is always one that, um, you know, there's

0:31:22.120 --> 0:31:24.920
<v Speaker 1>a there's a large interest. If you have international developed

0:31:24.960 --> 0:31:27.800
<v Speaker 1>and emerging markets, you probably have a big position in China.

0:31:28.160 --> 0:31:31.080
<v Speaker 1>So I might say, had your bets on that, and

0:31:31.240 --> 0:31:33.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, have a little bit of a cap or

0:31:33.440 --> 0:31:36.520
<v Speaker 1>a cap on the Chinese position, but US to international

0:31:36.600 --> 0:31:39.400
<v Speaker 1>you really should be looking at having that um overseas

0:31:39.480 --> 0:31:42.480
<v Speaker 1>diversification in the portfolio. That's interesting. Yeah, maybe you know

0:31:42.480 --> 0:31:44.280
<v Speaker 1>we were I was talking about China earlier, because I

0:31:44.280 --> 0:31:46.720
<v Speaker 1>do feel like we continue to get these mixed signals

0:31:46.760 --> 0:31:50.960
<v Speaker 1>about people saying whoa kind of reopening, what the opportunity

0:31:51.000 --> 0:31:53.600
<v Speaker 1>for China going forward this year as well as globally.

0:31:53.640 --> 0:31:56.000
<v Speaker 1>But then at the same time, you know, there are

0:31:56.040 --> 0:31:59.000
<v Speaker 1>concerns that it's not going to be a straight move

0:31:59.120 --> 0:32:05.280
<v Speaker 1>forward if you will, Um you mentioned international emerging though,

0:32:05.680 --> 0:32:08.280
<v Speaker 1>if we you know, kind of put China side emerging

0:32:08.400 --> 0:32:13.680
<v Speaker 1>international or do you like the developed play internationally? I do.

0:32:13.800 --> 0:32:16.560
<v Speaker 1>I do think it's both. Okay, you know, so you're

0:32:16.640 --> 0:32:20.520
<v Speaker 1>you're you know, emerging has the benefit of still being

0:32:20.560 --> 0:32:24.320
<v Speaker 1>somewhat lower correlation to the US than an international developed

0:32:24.360 --> 0:32:26.920
<v Speaker 1>In fact, there's been some pretty good research around the

0:32:26.960 --> 0:32:30.320
<v Speaker 1>fact that if you're doing an international focus and retail

0:32:30.360 --> 0:32:33.800
<v Speaker 1>investors right there, they're probably investing in areas of that

0:32:33.880 --> 0:32:36.680
<v Speaker 1>market that are large cap for the most part. Um

0:32:36.800 --> 0:32:40.600
<v Speaker 1>you're getting a high correlation to US stocks, Are you

0:32:40.640 --> 0:32:43.880
<v Speaker 1>really getting the diversification benefits that you're looking for? Really,

0:32:43.920 --> 0:32:45.280
<v Speaker 1>if you want to be if you want to have

0:32:45.320 --> 0:32:48.480
<v Speaker 1>a diversefied exposure where you're actually hedging your bets on

0:32:48.480 --> 0:32:50.200
<v Speaker 1>the U S side a little bit, you think about

0:32:50.240 --> 0:32:54.520
<v Speaker 1>these large international companies right their multinational um you know,

0:32:54.600 --> 0:32:59.560
<v Speaker 1>the revenue that's coming, whether the US or overseas. You know,

0:32:59.600 --> 0:33:02.719
<v Speaker 1>in these large companies, it's very high correlation. But if

0:33:02.720 --> 0:33:07.520
<v Speaker 1>you get into international, smaller mid two smaller stocks, international

0:33:07.560 --> 0:33:11.200
<v Speaker 1>small value and emerging markets, you start to now get

0:33:11.280 --> 0:33:13.720
<v Speaker 1>to areas of the market where, um you're seeing the

0:33:13.760 --> 0:33:16.480
<v Speaker 1>correlation is a little bit lower and you're getting some

0:33:16.560 --> 0:33:19.280
<v Speaker 1>of that diversification benefit. We also, you know, there's an

0:33:19.320 --> 0:33:22.560
<v Speaker 1>expectation that the dollar is not you know, strengthening this

0:33:22.640 --> 0:33:24.880
<v Speaker 1>year the way that it was last year, and that

0:33:24.960 --> 0:33:27.920
<v Speaker 1>of course helps your translated returns. All Right, we're gonna

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:29.560
<v Speaker 1>leave it on that note, Dana, thanks so much for

0:33:29.600 --> 0:33:32.640
<v Speaker 1>weighing in. Dana diora co chief investment Officer to Investment

0:33:33.000 --> 0:33:36.760
<v Speaker 1>joining us via zoom from Pennsylvania on this Tuesday. Thanks

0:33:36.800 --> 0:33:40.680
<v Speaker 1>for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:33:40.800 --> 0:33:43.160
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com. You can also listen to our

0:33:43.280 --> 0:33:46.520
<v Speaker 1>radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or

0:33:46.600 --> 0:33:57.120
<v Speaker 1>stream us live on YouTube and Bloomberg dot com.