WEBVTT - Ian Bremmer Says America Is a ‘Frog in a Boiling Pot’

0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:08.720
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.000
<v Speaker 2>I think Biden's in trouble on the Middle East. Biden

0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:19.960
<v Speaker 2>who has increasingly publicly broken with the Israeli Prime Minister,

0:00:20.120 --> 0:00:22.639
<v Speaker 2>not with Israel, but with the Prime Minister, and has

0:00:23.000 --> 0:00:27.520
<v Speaker 2>told him in very strong terms, you're not allowing in

0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:31.960
<v Speaker 2>humanitarian aid. That's unacceptable. You're not accepting a two state solution,

0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:35.960
<v Speaker 2>that's unacceptable. And the Israeli Prime Minister and more broadly,

0:00:36.000 --> 0:00:39.720
<v Speaker 2>the Israeli war cabinet is telling the vastly more powerful

0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:42.920
<v Speaker 2>United States, telling them to go screw themselves. That is

0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:44.960
<v Speaker 2>a horrible look for Biden.

0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:56.040
<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the City of London, the City of the

0:00:56.080 --> 0:00:57.680
<v Speaker 1>City of the City of London.

0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:05.000
<v Speaker 2>He's mind the gap between the tree and the financial

0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:11.919
<v Speaker 2>hearts of the country, the city, the city.

0:01:12.360 --> 0:01:13.680
<v Speaker 1>Welcome to in the city.

0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:21.600
<v Speaker 3>Stand clear of the doors. Welcome everyone to another episode

0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:26.600
<v Speaker 3>of the Bloomberg podcast that dissects the stories captivating policymakers

0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:28.399
<v Speaker 3>and power brokers the world over.

0:01:28.440 --> 0:01:31.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm Francinaqua and I'm alegra Stratton. So for those of

0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:34.520
<v Speaker 1>you who don't have a kind of encyclopedia memory of

0:01:34.560 --> 0:01:37.479
<v Speaker 1>all of the Inner City editions, we spoke to Ian

0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:41.319
<v Speaker 1>Bremer Eurasia As President and founder, who you just heard

0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:42.919
<v Speaker 1>from at the top of the show at the beginning

0:01:42.920 --> 0:01:46.119
<v Speaker 1>of the year, to get his insights into the predictions

0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:48.240
<v Speaker 1>he is making for the twenty twenty four So we're

0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:50.840
<v Speaker 1>obviously now slap bang in the middle of the year,

0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:52.400
<v Speaker 1>and we thought we would go back to him.

0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:54.880
<v Speaker 3>Basically in January he comes out with his top ten

0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:56.520
<v Speaker 3>risks and at the time, you know, he was talking

0:01:56.520 --> 0:01:59.040
<v Speaker 3>about the three wars that will dominate of world affairs,

0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:03.040
<v Speaker 3>Russia versus Ukraine is Rahamas and then his number one

0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:07.400
<v Speaker 3>risk in January was the United States versus itself because

0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:09.320
<v Speaker 3>of the US election. It's quite lucky actually that we

0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:12.560
<v Speaker 3>speak to Ian Bremmer just after the former US president,

0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:15.359
<v Speaker 3>Donald Trump is now also convicted felon and we try

0:02:15.360 --> 0:02:17.360
<v Speaker 3>and figure out what that means for the US elections

0:02:17.360 --> 0:02:17.880
<v Speaker 3>in November.

0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:21.920
<v Speaker 1>And actually I found this conversation less depressing than I

0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:27.520
<v Speaker 1>found much season incredibly learned and well connected and informed gentlemen.

0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:30.359
<v Speaker 1>I did find it a very bleak conversation in January.

0:02:30.480 --> 0:02:35.000
<v Speaker 1>But brand you think that I'm just desensitized, I do think.

0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:38.519
<v Speaker 3>That you No, I mean, you're not naive at all, well,

0:02:38.600 --> 0:02:41.200
<v Speaker 3>but he you know, he makes a point actually that

0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:44.520
<v Speaker 3>we're desensitized because there's so much things that have gone

0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:50.880
<v Speaker 3>wrong that we're kind of normalizing even trials wars that

0:02:51.240 --> 0:02:53.799
<v Speaker 3>three years ago would have been unthinkable. Okay, let's get

0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:56.160
<v Speaker 3>to our conversation with Ian Bremer. You raise a group

0:02:56.200 --> 0:02:58.760
<v Speaker 3>president and founder, Ian Bremmer, thank you so much for

0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:01.079
<v Speaker 3>joining us. So a lot of you said has come

0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:05.520
<v Speaker 3>to fruition. But then Donald Trump just getting I mean,

0:03:05.520 --> 0:03:08.440
<v Speaker 3>this is for the first time someone who's trying to

0:03:08.440 --> 0:03:10.760
<v Speaker 3>become president, who's a felon. How will it play out

0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:12.480
<v Speaker 3>in the voting Well.

0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:16.480
<v Speaker 2>I mean, unprecedented things are happening in US politics on

0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:21.919
<v Speaker 2>a weekly basis, and Americans are normalizing those things. You're

0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:24.280
<v Speaker 2>just getting used to it. It's not a sign of

0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:27.840
<v Speaker 2>a stable democracy. And of course there are no Trump

0:03:27.960 --> 0:03:32.160
<v Speaker 2>supporters in the United States that believe that this was

0:03:32.639 --> 0:03:35.720
<v Speaker 2>a legitimate trial. It's a horrible time for an election.

0:03:36.560 --> 0:03:39.760
<v Speaker 2>The likelihood of political violence I think has gone up

0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:43.760
<v Speaker 2>as a consequence of the verdict that we just saw,

0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:48.720
<v Speaker 2>And on balance, maybe Biden is a little more likely

0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:53.040
<v Speaker 2>to win. But Trump can absolutely still win this election,

0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:56.200
<v Speaker 2>and he will win it. If he does, as a

0:03:56.240 --> 0:04:00.640
<v Speaker 2>convicted felon with political enemies that he intends to go after,

0:04:01.120 --> 0:04:05.400
<v Speaker 2>that means that a new McCarthyism. It's not the US

0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:08.320
<v Speaker 2>becoming a dictatorship. It's not China, it's not Russia. But

0:04:08.400 --> 0:04:12.000
<v Speaker 2>perhaps it's more like Hungary or Poland or Turkey. And

0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:16.279
<v Speaker 2>that's one thing when we talk about small peripheral European countries.

0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:20.080
<v Speaker 2>It's another one. You're talking about the most powerful country

0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:23.680
<v Speaker 2>in the world, the most powerful defense in the world, military,

0:04:23.960 --> 0:04:27.320
<v Speaker 2>the reserve currency. It's a very very dangerous place to

0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:29.279
<v Speaker 2>be and of course that's why it was our top

0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:30.560
<v Speaker 2>risk for twenty twenty four.

0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:33.520
<v Speaker 3>Well, Donald Trump go to prison, and does that make

0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:35.760
<v Speaker 3>a difference. He can still campaign from prison.

0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:38.520
<v Speaker 2>I don't think it makes a difference. If he does

0:04:38.560 --> 0:04:41.640
<v Speaker 2>get a prison charge, I suspect it will be nominal,

0:04:42.160 --> 0:04:45.680
<v Speaker 2>and he finds he gets will also be nominal compared

0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:51.160
<v Speaker 2>to his net worth. He will almost certainly appeal, And

0:04:51.200 --> 0:04:55.440
<v Speaker 2>I suspect that whatever sentence, if a sentence is handed down,

0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:59.000
<v Speaker 2>is likely to be suspended while the appeal is playing out.

0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:03.400
<v Speaker 2>And I also think that none of this is going

0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:07.640
<v Speaker 2>to have much impact, especially since the election is six

0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:08.240
<v Speaker 2>months out.

0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:10.880
<v Speaker 1>I mean, presumably it does have some kind of chilling

0:05:10.920 --> 0:05:13.480
<v Speaker 1>effect on waivering voters.

0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:18.679
<v Speaker 2>I think that the independents are more likely to vote

0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:22.760
<v Speaker 2>against Trump or not vote at all as a consequence

0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:27.000
<v Speaker 2>of this conviction. For right now, I have a hard

0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:30.560
<v Speaker 2>time seeing that persist for six months now. I also

0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:33.080
<v Speaker 2>think if Nicki Hayley and you know, there are a

0:05:33.080 --> 0:05:35.800
<v Speaker 2>lot of people out there are Centrists, Independence as well

0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:39.120
<v Speaker 2>as you know, sort of undecided Republican voters that have

0:05:39.200 --> 0:05:43.320
<v Speaker 2>been turning out for Nicki, And if Nicki had decided

0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:48.320
<v Speaker 2>that she actually wanted to persist with her stated beliefs

0:05:48.360 --> 0:05:50.919
<v Speaker 2>that Trump is unfit for office, then I think it

0:05:50.920 --> 0:05:53.680
<v Speaker 2>could have made a significant difference. She could have been

0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:56.040
<v Speaker 2>out there telling those voters that are still coming out

0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:58.640
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty five percent, even though she's not running anymore

0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:02.280
<v Speaker 2>for the nomination right her name and saying, no, you know,

0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:04.720
<v Speaker 2>you can't vote for Trump. You know, just don't vote

0:06:04.720 --> 0:06:06.920
<v Speaker 2>at all or write in somebody, but you can't vote

0:06:06.920 --> 0:06:09.599
<v Speaker 2>for Trump in this environment. He's a danger democracy. She

0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:13.080
<v Speaker 2>is not doing that. Her political ambition comes first. She

0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:15.240
<v Speaker 2>wants to be Secretary of State. She has a very

0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:18.599
<v Speaker 2>good shot of getting that a vote for Trump is

0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:21.520
<v Speaker 2>now a vote for Haley, and I think that we

0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:27.360
<v Speaker 2>cannot underestimate how important it is that the personal ambitions

0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:33.000
<v Speaker 2>and the venality of the overwhelming majority of Republican leaders,

0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:38.000
<v Speaker 2>Republican donors, Republican journalists that are continuing to support this

0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:44.080
<v Speaker 2>man irrespective of what he does, has done, and represents,

0:06:44.480 --> 0:06:47.320
<v Speaker 2>is one of the major reasons why US democracy is

0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:48.159
<v Speaker 2>in crisis today.

0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:51.440
<v Speaker 3>Wall Street billionaires are also financial elites, are throwing their

0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:54.480
<v Speaker 3>weight behind Trump. Why are they still sticking with Trump?

0:06:55.160 --> 0:06:59.320
<v Speaker 2>Again? This is revealed preference. If most people I know

0:06:59.360 --> 0:07:03.800
<v Speaker 2>that are billion not all, but most, especially billionaires that

0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:06.680
<v Speaker 2>made that money through their own efforts as opposed to

0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:10.840
<v Speaker 2>through a marriage or through their parents or whatever. They

0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:15.679
<v Speaker 2>are people who have spent most of their time working

0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:19.520
<v Speaker 2>incredibly hard because they value money, right, I mean, that

0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:22.800
<v Speaker 2>is their goal, That is their reveal preference. And Trump

0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:26.880
<v Speaker 2>is better for their money than Biden. So I mean,

0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:28.720
<v Speaker 2>if that is the most important thing to you, not

0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:31.800
<v Speaker 2>the state of democracy, not abortion, not the border, not

0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:34.360
<v Speaker 2>US foreign policy, not climate, the most important thing to

0:07:34.360 --> 0:07:36.960
<v Speaker 2>you is money, then of course you shouldn't be surprised

0:07:37.000 --> 0:07:39.080
<v Speaker 2>they're putting their money behind the guy that's going to be,

0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:45.480
<v Speaker 2>you know, regulatory rollback captured by special interests in the cabinet,

0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:48.760
<v Speaker 2>lower taxes, good for the financial services.

0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:51.840
<v Speaker 1>And that's the economy as seen and felt and experienced

0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:54.240
<v Speaker 1>by billionaires. But what about the economy seen and felt

0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:58.000
<v Speaker 1>and experienced by humble every day Joe's.

0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:04.280
<v Speaker 2>Overall, this inflation environment hurts the average American and that

0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:07.720
<v Speaker 2>has driven them to believe that Trump is better for

0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:10.720
<v Speaker 2>them on the economy than Biden. Now having said that,

0:08:12.080 --> 0:08:16.120
<v Speaker 2>it is also in a polarized environment, in an algorithmically

0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:24.120
<v Speaker 2>driven environment where people believe that their political orientation determines

0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:26.640
<v Speaker 2>a lot of not only how they feel about conviction,

0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:29.920
<v Speaker 2>but also how they feel about the economy. So if

0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:32.280
<v Speaker 2>you support Trump, you think the economy is doing badly.

0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:34.240
<v Speaker 2>If supports Biden, you think it's doing well. And you

0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:39.040
<v Speaker 2>felt exactly the opposite just before Biden became president. So

0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:43.360
<v Speaker 2>there is a lot of nonsense and noise that obscures

0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:47.160
<v Speaker 2>the fact that a lot of Americans are not doing

0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:48.520
<v Speaker 2>so well in this economy.

0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:51.880
<v Speaker 3>Ian, how is the war between Israel and Hamas actually

0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:55.720
<v Speaker 3>impacting the US election? And does it somehow undermine I

0:08:55.720 --> 0:08:59.079
<v Speaker 3>guess what Joe Biden has tried to do, which is temper.

0:08:59.200 --> 0:09:04.280
<v Speaker 3>What Benjamin is Now's force in gozen Rafa particularly has been.

0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:08.360
<v Speaker 2>Well. He hasn't tried very hard, and he hasn't tried

0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:11.800
<v Speaker 2>the very early, and that has hurt him with his

0:09:11.840 --> 0:09:15.440
<v Speaker 2>own base. Maybe I should say, first more broadly, that

0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:19.040
<v Speaker 2>this is not an election being determined by economics. I

0:09:19.040 --> 0:09:21.120
<v Speaker 2>think this is an election being determined much more by

0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:26.320
<v Speaker 2>national security broadly defined. Number one being the border, Number

0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:30.680
<v Speaker 2>two being Gaza, Number three being the state of US democracy.

0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:33.720
<v Speaker 2>And if you put those three things together, you actually

0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:38.200
<v Speaker 2>have a pretty significant component of why people are going

0:09:38.200 --> 0:09:39.240
<v Speaker 2>to vote one way or the other.

0:09:39.280 --> 0:09:40.320
<v Speaker 4>That's very unusual.

0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:44.640
<v Speaker 2>It's not unprecedented, but certainly since Vietnam days, we haven't

0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:46.319
<v Speaker 2>seen an election like that. So I think that it's

0:09:46.360 --> 0:09:47.880
<v Speaker 2>just worth keeping that in the back of your head

0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:50.680
<v Speaker 2>as we talk about this. I think Biden's in trouble

0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:53.800
<v Speaker 2>on the Middle East. This election is going badly. Biden

0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:57.880
<v Speaker 2>is seeing on again by the left. Biden is seen

0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:02.040
<v Speaker 2>as supporting a genocide. He is seen as promoting the

0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:05.800
<v Speaker 2>interests of a bully in the Middle East against an underdog.

0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:09.720
<v Speaker 2>With the war continuing on and on, and on. Most

0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:13.880
<v Speaker 2>Democrats are more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, not to Hamas,

0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:17.240
<v Speaker 2>but to the Palestinian cause than they are to the Israelis.

0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:23.520
<v Speaker 2>That having been said, Biden, who has increasingly publicly broken

0:10:24.080 --> 0:10:26.880
<v Speaker 2>with the Israeli Prime Minister, not with Israel, but with

0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:32.560
<v Speaker 2>the Prime Minister, and has told him in very strong terms,

0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:36.760
<v Speaker 2>you're not allowing in humanitarian aid. That's unacceptable. You are

0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:40.640
<v Speaker 2>not accepting a two state solution. That's unacceptable. You have

0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:44.439
<v Speaker 2>to allow all of these people to get out safely

0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:49.120
<v Speaker 2>before you go into Rafa. It's unacceptable. And the Israeli

0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:52.360
<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister and more broadly, the Israeli war cabinet is

0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:55.760
<v Speaker 2>telling the vastly more powerful United States, on the back

0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:59.600
<v Speaker 2>of providing billions and billions of dollars of defense aid,

0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:03.560
<v Speaker 2>telling them to go screw themselves. That is a horrible

0:11:03.640 --> 0:11:06.240
<v Speaker 2>look for Biden. It is a horrible look for Biden.

0:11:06.559 --> 0:11:10.240
<v Speaker 2>He looks weak. And of course the Republicans are saying

0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:13.800
<v Speaker 2>he's too soft on Iran, that's why this whole thing started.

0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:18.000
<v Speaker 2>They're also saying that smart he's not actually strong enough

0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:22.600
<v Speaker 2>in support of Israel. How can you undermine your ally

0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:27.800
<v Speaker 2>after the horrors of the terrorist attacks on October seventh.

0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:30.600
<v Speaker 2>This is a no win situation, and I will certainly

0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:34.120
<v Speaker 2>tell you that inside the Biden administration they're increasingly very

0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.400
<v Speaker 2>uncomfortable with where he is, with where they are, and

0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:41.360
<v Speaker 2>you're now starting to see high level resignations for members

0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:46.360
<v Speaker 2>of the Biden team. Again, these are full time bureaucrats, administrators, diplomats,

0:11:46.360 --> 0:11:51.600
<v Speaker 2>that kind of thing, because they oppose on principle Biden's

0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:55.439
<v Speaker 2>support for Israel in this environment. Remember, the United States

0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:59.120
<v Speaker 2>is pretty much by itself right now in the degree

0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:02.840
<v Speaker 2>to which they are supporting this Israeli war in Gaza.

0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:07.280
<v Speaker 2>I do think that the war is going to continue

0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:12.480
<v Speaker 2>for the coming at least months, seven months, no idea,

0:12:12.600 --> 0:12:16.320
<v Speaker 2>but it's not one month. And you know, a lot

0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:21.400
<v Speaker 2>of the paramilitary, the terrorists that have been fighting in Rafa,

0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:24.960
<v Speaker 2>you know, I've gotten a briefing recently that at least

0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:28.040
<v Speaker 2>half of them are believed to have left Rafa and

0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:31.640
<v Speaker 2>are now popped back up in other parts of Gaza.

0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:36.760
<v Speaker 2>So increasingly, where the Israelis go, Hamas then disperses. And

0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:39.040
<v Speaker 2>it is a problem because if you are Israel and

0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:42.040
<v Speaker 2>you have to telegraph this is where we're going to attack,

0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:43.960
<v Speaker 2>and we've got to send leaflets and we try to

0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:48.200
<v Speaker 2>you know, reduce civilian casualties ineffectively. To be sure, it

0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:51.320
<v Speaker 2>also means that Hamas has the ability with a symmetric

0:12:51.360 --> 0:12:54.199
<v Speaker 2>warfare to continue to take advantage of that. And now

0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:57.520
<v Speaker 2>we're seeing you know, more rocket strikes from other parts

0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:01.920
<v Speaker 2>of Gaza that the Israelis were supposed to have already

0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:05.840
<v Speaker 2>cleaned up in terms of Hamas' capability. So as long

0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:09.560
<v Speaker 2>as your goal is we're going to destroy this organization,

0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:13.160
<v Speaker 2>their military capabilities, their leadership, it is going to take

0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:13.840
<v Speaker 2>a lot longer.

0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:16.520
<v Speaker 1>In in January, when we last spoke to you, you

0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:20.079
<v Speaker 1>said that Europe was a bright spot and you didn't

0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:23.000
<v Speaker 1>think that the elections which are now very soon, you

0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:25.840
<v Speaker 1>didn't think that they that they were going to cause

0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:29.840
<v Speaker 1>much trouble at all. In that time, we have seen,

0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:31.800
<v Speaker 1>for instance, in Germany, we have seen some of the

0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:36.839
<v Speaker 1>polling for the for the yeah, exactly going down fall

0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:39.080
<v Speaker 1>a part in your words, Okay, do you think that

0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:41.000
<v Speaker 1>will end up being You'll be proven right on.

0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:46.000
<v Speaker 2>That, yeah, I do. Again, it's messy because of course

0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:50.360
<v Speaker 2>in France, but Le Penn and her supporters are doing

0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:54.880
<v Speaker 2>better than they have been. And of course there has

0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:59.960
<v Speaker 2>been an effort to form an alliance between Maloney, which

0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:03.480
<v Speaker 2>if you will, is the kind of reconstructed far right,

0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:07.200
<v Speaker 2>as opposed to Lapen, who is the unreconstructed far right.

0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:10.160
<v Speaker 2>I don't think that's going to work, so even though

0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:13.120
<v Speaker 2>on balance overall the far right will do better in

0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:16.439
<v Speaker 2>these parliament elections in Germany, the biggest economy, most powerful

0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:20.560
<v Speaker 2>country is the big exception here. Nonetheless, I think that

0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:24.040
<v Speaker 2>the outcome for the EU will be strong support for

0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:29.120
<v Speaker 2>the EU. In other words, I don't see irredentist decentralization

0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:32.520
<v Speaker 2>trends in governance in the EU. In fact, I see

0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:35.640
<v Speaker 2>greater panic because of what's happening in the US, making

0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:39.240
<v Speaker 2>the Europeans recognize they need to do more on collective defense.

0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:42.560
<v Speaker 2>They need the EU more, they need NATO more. There

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:44.560
<v Speaker 2>needs to be a European pillar, that's what they talk about,

0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:47.000
<v Speaker 2>a European pillar from NATO. That's very different from strategic

0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:51.560
<v Speaker 2>autonomy from NATO, which is what Macron had been discussing

0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:55.520
<v Speaker 2>before the war started. Now, also, of course you have

0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:59.680
<v Speaker 2>the UK. Labor should win very easily. That election is

0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:01.720
<v Speaker 2>just a matter of a few weeks because the UK

0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:04.600
<v Speaker 2>is much more sensible about how short their election cycle

0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:08.960
<v Speaker 2>is than the Americans, and that will also create stabilization

0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:11.760
<v Speaker 2>in their EU relationships. So on balance, yeah, I think

0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:17.280
<v Speaker 2>the Europeans, under pressure from every corner of the world,

0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:21.920
<v Speaker 2>is becoming more coherent and more strong as a union.

0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:25.160
<v Speaker 3>In what will change, so it's defense, but it's also

0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:30.160
<v Speaker 3>the Green transition. Depending on who gets to power in

0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:33.520
<v Speaker 3>the EU, then we could have a whole abandonment of

0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:34.760
<v Speaker 3>the Green New Deal.

0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:39.040
<v Speaker 2>I think that, for example, the willingness of the Europeans

0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:45.240
<v Speaker 2>to align completely with the US on China is limited. Yes,

0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:48.040
<v Speaker 2>there's going to be tariffs on Chinese cvs, but they're

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:49.640
<v Speaker 2>not going to be one hundred percent this Then there's

0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.320
<v Speaker 2>going to be partnerships. And I look at what the

0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:56.160
<v Speaker 2>Spaniards are doing right now on transition and it's very impressive.

0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:58.480
<v Speaker 2>And I look at how fast the Germans were able

0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:01.760
<v Speaker 2>to get away from right gas and a lot of that,

0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:04.520
<v Speaker 2>of course was coal and extending nuclear for a short

0:16:04.560 --> 0:16:06.800
<v Speaker 2>period of time, but a lot of it was efficiency.

0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:10.800
<v Speaker 2>Instead of taking a look at what today's policy is

0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:14.440
<v Speaker 2>versus tomorrow's, but instead the state of the play and

0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:17.880
<v Speaker 2>the trajectory that the Europeans are on. I still see

0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:22.120
<v Speaker 2>them as leading an effort to go post carbon and

0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:24.800
<v Speaker 2>the world is failing at this. We're not going to

0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:26.600
<v Speaker 2>hit one point five, we're not going to hit two.

0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:29.760
<v Speaker 2>But we're still more upbeat about where we are going

0:16:29.840 --> 0:16:32.120
<v Speaker 2>long term than people were ten twenty thirty years ago.

0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:33.040
<v Speaker 2>I think that's still true.

0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:35.520
<v Speaker 1>Has anything happened in this half of the year that

0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:36.560
<v Speaker 1>you didn't see coming?

0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:40.880
<v Speaker 2>Oil prices are a little bit lower than I would

0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:44.760
<v Speaker 2>have expected, you know, given all of the concerns in

0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:47.560
<v Speaker 2>the Middle East, given the fact that the Huthis are

0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:50.800
<v Speaker 2>disrupting traffic in the Red Sea, given the fact that

0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:56.960
<v Speaker 2>the Ukrainians are targeting Russian refining capability. You know, even

0:16:57.040 --> 0:16:59.640
<v Speaker 2>with the economy being a little less robust on the

0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:02.280
<v Speaker 2>demain inside, I would have expected oil to be a

0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:02.880
<v Speaker 2>little higher.

0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:08.040
<v Speaker 4>We're at the low eighties right now, and I mean,

0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:11.040
<v Speaker 4>I still think that the risks for oil there are

0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.919
<v Speaker 4>significant tail risks for them to be much higher depending

0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:15.359
<v Speaker 4>on what happens in the Middle East.

0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:18.960
<v Speaker 2>But it's coming at an environment where the Chinese have

0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:23.160
<v Speaker 2>a lot of spare refining capacity, and also where there

0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:27.000
<v Speaker 2>are millions of barrels that are offline for opek, and

0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:31.920
<v Speaker 2>the US is producing with in historically unprecedented fashion. A

0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:34.359
<v Speaker 2>little surprised on that. I will also say another thing

0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:36.480
<v Speaker 2>I'm not surprised about, but I could end up being

0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:39.360
<v Speaker 2>wrong on is we had as a red herring that

0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:42.280
<v Speaker 2>the US China relationship would be well managed and a

0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:44.119
<v Speaker 2>lot more stable than it has been now for the

0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:47.000
<v Speaker 2>first half of this year, we've been absolutely right, and

0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:49.720
<v Speaker 2>people were surprised about that. At the beginning of the year,

0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:51.440
<v Speaker 2>they thought the Taiwan election was going to be a

0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 2>big problem. We said, no, live is going to win,

0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:57.240
<v Speaker 2>will be well managed. But the pressure on the US

0:17:57.359 --> 0:18:02.840
<v Speaker 2>election definitely means that there is a lot more willingness

0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:07.320
<v Speaker 2>in the US to hit the Chinese than Biden would like.

0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.760
<v Speaker 2>And we've seen that with the TikTok and we've seen

0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:14.640
<v Speaker 2>that with the additional tariffs, including a one hundred percent

0:18:14.680 --> 0:18:17.800
<v Speaker 2>tarif on Chinese evs. That is not the direction of

0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:21.960
<v Speaker 2>travel that Biden thought he would be on back in January.

0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:25.119
<v Speaker 2>So if you asked me to project to the end

0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:27.360
<v Speaker 2>of this year, I think that there is I think

0:18:27.400 --> 0:18:30.000
<v Speaker 2>we're still right, but I think that there's a possibility

0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:34.879
<v Speaker 2>that US China will get more confrontational because of that,

0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:36.080
<v Speaker 2>so we should watch.

0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:38.399
<v Speaker 3>That space And thank you so much for joining us today.

0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:40.040
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, great to talk to you guys.

0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:47.680
<v Speaker 3>Thanks for listening to this week's In the City from Bloomberg.

0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:50.159
<v Speaker 3>This episode was hosted by me fran Saint Lacla and

0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:54.119
<v Speaker 3>Allegra Stranton. It was produced by Summersati Show Open Design,

0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:57.560
<v Speaker 3>and additional editing by Moses and Them. Brendan Francis Newman

0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:01.280
<v Speaker 3>is our executive producer, Sah Bauman, Head of Podcasts, and

0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:05.679
<v Speaker 3>special thanks to Ian Bremmer. Please subscribe, rate, and review

0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:07.480
<v Speaker 3>wherever you listen to podcasts.