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Speaker 1: Welcome to How to Money. I'm Joel and I am Matt.

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Speaker 1: Today we're talking in This Economy with Kyla Scanlon. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So it is tricky to describe who Kyla Scanlin is

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Speaker 2: and what exactly it is that she does, because, yes,

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Speaker 2: she has a massive following on TikTok, but she's not

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Speaker 2: simply an influencer. Yes she has an incredible newsletter, but

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Speaker 2: she isn't simply a writer either, though she has written.

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Speaker 1: For the time.

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Speaker 2: She's written for New York Magazine and Bloomberg and her

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Speaker 2: brand new book, In This Economy, How Money and Markets

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Speaker 2: Really Work that was just released yesterday. And so ultimately

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Speaker 2: I would say that Kyla is an educator because where

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Speaker 2: she really excels is bridging the gap between the complexities

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Speaker 2: of our modern economy to simple every day living. It

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Speaker 2: is so clear that she is passionate about empowering individuals

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Speaker 2: with the knowledge that they need to make informed financial decisions.

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Speaker 2: And plus she does all this with a touch of

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Speaker 2: humor while simultaneously not ignoring the philosophical angle as well.

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Speaker 2: And so we're excited to talk about all things money

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Speaker 2: and markets and economy related. Kyla, thank you so much

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Speaker 2: for talking with us today.

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Speaker 3: Oh, yes, thank you so much for having.

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Speaker 1: Me of course. Oh okay, the question that we ask

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Speaker 1: everyone who comes on the show. The first thing we

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Speaker 1: need to know, Kyla, is what your craft beer equivalent is.

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Speaker 1: What is it that you spend in a lot of

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Speaker 1: money on that some people might think is crazy, just

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Speaker 1: like Matt and I do with beer, but you think

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Speaker 1: it's perfectly normal, and simultaneously you're saving and investing at

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Speaker 1: the same time for your future.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I have five bikes, so yeah, I know, I know,

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Speaker 4: I know.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I've got your beat.

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Speaker 2: What but I also have I'm a family of six,

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Speaker 2: so you can't count your kids. We have seven bikes

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Speaker 2: at our house, but there's one of you and there

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Speaker 2: are six per capita.

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Speaker 1: And you have the space for all these bikes.

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Speaker 5: Oh.

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Speaker 4: I have a special little bike hangar that I have

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Speaker 4: in my apartment where I like hang the bikes from

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Speaker 4: and then two of them don't hang, so I have

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Speaker 4: three hanging, and then I have one up against like

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Speaker 4: my dining room table, and then one up against my couch.

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Speaker 4: So there really isn't a lot of room for living

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Speaker 4: in the living room.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, just bikes.

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Speaker 1: They're literally all over the place.

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Speaker 2: And I mean, we know we've been to your site

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Speaker 2: and know something about you, but you're really in mountain

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Speaker 2: biking as well, right, you're out in Colorado.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, mountain biking, gravel biking, road biking, adventure biking.

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Speaker 4: I also bike commute, so I don't really drive, so

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Speaker 4: I have a bike for each you know, hobby. But yeah,

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Speaker 4: so like that's what I do on the weekends is

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Speaker 4: going bike big miles.

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Speaker 1: Do you have a cargo bike for when you go

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Speaker 1: to the grocery store?

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Speaker 3: I use a backpack. Yeah, so I put it okay.

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Speaker 2: Back I guess you don't need a whole you don't

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Speaker 2: need multiple pioneers.

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Speaker 1: If it's just you again, it's just just.

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Speaker 2: Seating a bunch of Joel made a note, he said,

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Speaker 2: to highlight the fact that Kyla.

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Speaker 1: Is all by herself.

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Speaker 3: So it's my dog.

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Speaker 1: Check that box with somebody friends, is what I said.

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Speaker 4: Somebody friends, many friends and likes you.

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Speaker 5: Hat another reason we're excited to talk with you, because

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Speaker 5: so much better than having like a dozen cats, I think.

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Speaker 5: So you could be a bike lady. Lady, Well, oh,

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Speaker 5: I wanted to ask you.

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Speaker 2: Have you so you do a lot of biking out

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Speaker 2: out west, you've done much out east? Specifically, one of

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Speaker 2: my favorite trails was Katsuma. It's a nice downhill single track,

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Speaker 2: real close to Mount Mitchell.

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Speaker 3: No, I haven't.

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Speaker 4: I've done most of my mountain biking out west, so

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Speaker 4: I haven't really actually done nothing out east.

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Speaker 2: He keep that in mind if you want to, if

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Speaker 2: you want to do like an Ashville mountain biking style trip,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of It's not Colorado, but there's a

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Speaker 2: there's some decent.

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Speaker 1: Stuff that'll your itinerary for you. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I used to teach mountain biking for at a boys

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Speaker 2: summer camp when I.

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Speaker 3: Was in age, So yeah, that's awesome. No, I'll definitely

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Speaker 3: check it out.

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Speaker 1: Nice.

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Speaker 2: We can loop back to that later after we're done

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Speaker 2: talking about your book, because let's let's talk about that.

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Speaker 2: It was published, It was released yesterday, and it's got

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Speaker 2: some serious econ one oh one vibes that kind of

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Speaker 2: took us back to high school, but way more interesting

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Speaker 2: than high school. And of course it was updated for

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Speaker 2: modern times, helping for folks to connect the dots in

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Speaker 2: a digestible way. What is it that kind of caused

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Speaker 2: you to want to write this book?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I've been making content about the economy for

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Speaker 4: over two and a half years now, had worked in

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Speaker 4: the industry for a little bit, you know, studied it

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Speaker 4: in school. And I think the big takeaway throughout that

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Speaker 4: entire experience was that, you know, people are in the economy,

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Speaker 4: but they don't know a lot about the economy or

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Speaker 4: they don't have acce to the tools that they need

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Speaker 4: to understand the world around them. And so I wrote

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Speaker 4: the book just to give people a toolbox. Like it

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Speaker 4: talks about inflation, it talks about GDP, it talks about

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Speaker 4: the labor market, it talks about the Federal Reserve, fiscal policy,

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Speaker 4: what money is, and it's just meant to be like

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Speaker 4: a guide for people who want to just have a

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Speaker 4: general overview of what the economy is. And there's sixty illustrations,

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Speaker 4: so it's meant to be fun, which sometimes economics can't

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Speaker 4: be that fun. But yeah, that's why I wrote the book,

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Speaker 4: is to help people through the more fuzzy parts of

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Speaker 4: being in the economy.

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Speaker 1: It feels like we need that more than ever too write.

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Speaker 1: I mean, think about what's happened over the past few years,

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Speaker 1: and before that, the economy felt a lot more straightforward.

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Speaker 1: It feels a lot more discombobulated these days. And I mean,

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Speaker 1: do you think that we need in an economic education

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Speaker 1: even more in twenty twenty four than we maybe did

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Speaker 1: in I don't know, twenty fifteen.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say so.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I think, you know, the pandemic really did

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Speaker 4: or on the economy, just in terms of the jobs

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Speaker 4: that were lost, but also because of what the Federal

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Speaker 4: Reserve did with raising rates, right like, we entered this

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Speaker 4: whole new economic regime that we'd never really been in before,

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Speaker 4: at least in recent history. And now we have this

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Speaker 4: selection coming up at the end of the year where

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Speaker 4: the economy is going to be a hot topic. And

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Speaker 4: so I think, now, as you said, more than ever,

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Speaker 4: it is important that people understand what's going on so

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Speaker 4: they can make the right decisions that they need to

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Speaker 4: about their own economic circumstances. And I think also, like,

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Speaker 4: if you live in a world that's big and confusing

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Speaker 4: to you, it's hard to make good decisions. And so

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Speaker 4: if you have just sort of a general understanding but

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Speaker 4: interest rates are like why they're going up, how that

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Speaker 4: could impact mortgage rates and auto insurance all of that stuff,

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Speaker 4: I think that helps a lot. I think that things

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Speaker 4: can be painted to be rather confusing when most of

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Speaker 4: the time they can be simplified to be rather simple.

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Speaker 4: And that's also a goal of the book. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's more than just you can take like an

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Speaker 2: overlease simplified view of things, and so like, for instance,

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Speaker 2: if you're a home buyer, it's like, okay, interest rates

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Speaker 2: go down, good, frisk go up bad, But there are

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Speaker 2: other factors to consider. And like you talk about you

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Speaker 2: mentioned fiscal and monetary policy. Like on the fiscal policy front,

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Speaker 2: you highlight the incredibly short tenure of Liz Trust as

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Speaker 2: the Prime Minister of Great Britain and.

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Speaker 1: She lasts like thirty days on it.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a lot that we can learn there.

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Speaker 2: Can you just kind of talk about that, elaborate for

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Speaker 2: a minute, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 4: Mean I think that like the way that fiscal policy

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Speaker 4: can come about most of the time is because of

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Speaker 4: short termism. Like what happened with Liz Trust is she

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Speaker 4: had this whole mini budget plan that ended up being

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Speaker 4: largely inflationary and sort of did the opposite of what

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Speaker 4: she wanted it to do.

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Speaker 3: And you know, the.

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Speaker 4: UK was experiencing a bunch of inflation during that time,

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Speaker 4: and so everyone was like, what are you doing, and

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Speaker 4: it seemed like she didn't really know, and that's why

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Speaker 4: she didn't last very long. Actually, like this head of

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Speaker 4: Lettuce ended up lasting longer than she did. But I

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Speaker 4: think that's like just something that you will need to

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Speaker 4: understand is like how fiscal policy will interact with the

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Speaker 4: broader economy and like why it can be inflationary, why

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Speaker 4: government doesn't have unlimited money to spend, but then also

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Speaker 4: like policies that the government could put toward, Like I

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Speaker 4: think a lot of anger that we're experiencing right now

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Speaker 4: is because of the fiscal response that we saw during

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Speaker 4: the pandemic, and then the pullback of that fiscal response,

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Speaker 4: Like people saw that the government was able to provide,

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Speaker 4: you know, an element of unemployment that is more than

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Speaker 4: they provide now, rent forbearance, student loan forgiveness, all this stuff,

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Speaker 4: and so I think it's important that people understand like

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Speaker 4: why that stuff would start and stop.

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Speaker 3: And then also to the less TRUSTe example.

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Speaker 4: Just show an example of how fiscal policy can impact

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Speaker 4: the broad economy in a bad way.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so you talked about kind of the starting and

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Speaker 1: stopping of certain government interventions into our economy. There were

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Speaker 1: certainly a lot of different things. I feel like it

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Speaker 1: was like a kitchen sink approach, especially from the federal

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Speaker 1: government during the heart of the pandemic, and understandably so

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Speaker 1: given kind of what we were facing. But then there

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Speaker 1: were long lasting implications of that, especially when we're talking

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Speaker 1: about let's say, the stimmy checks. It seems like there

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Speaker 1: was some necessity for those, but then maybe we over

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Speaker 1: overdid it to a certain extent too, and that's caused

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Speaker 1: this long lasting inflation. So but then I think sometimes

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Speaker 1: people get used to a certain kind of government policy

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Speaker 1: and then it goes away and they're like, wait, what,

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Speaker 1: why isn't that there anymore? So I don't know, how

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Speaker 1: do you think about when governments get involved, how to

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Speaker 1: what extent they get involved, and then the kind of

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Speaker 1: secondary the domino effect of some of their actions.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think number one, and this is

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Speaker 4: a view that I have to check myself on sometimes,

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Speaker 4: but I think governments exist to serve the people, and

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Speaker 4: they should spend money on their people. Like that's kind

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Speaker 4: of like why we pay taxes, and so I think

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Speaker 4: that's just like one opinion that I have, and I

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Speaker 4: think it's important that governments do invest in the populist

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Speaker 4: for the long term. But I think to the example

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Speaker 4: about stimulus checks, like that was so supportive to people,

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Speaker 4: like it got the United States through the pandemic way

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Speaker 4: better than any other developed country. Like the US right

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Speaker 4: now is doing much better than anybody thought we would

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Speaker 4: be doing in twenty nineteen, like before we even knew

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Speaker 4: the pandemic would be happening, Like the stimulus checks sort

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Speaker 4: of save the American consumer. But now it's kind of

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Speaker 4: like this battle with inflation, and so I think the

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Speaker 4: government has a responsibility to spend money. But now because

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Speaker 4: of the Federal Reserve raising rates in order to battle

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Speaker 4: the inflation that you know, could have potentially been caused

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Speaker 4: a little bit by these stimulus checks and outsized fiscal

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Speaker 4: spending during the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has been raising

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Speaker 4: rates in order to battle inflation because of that, but

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Speaker 4: because rates are high, like interest servicing costs on government

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Speaker 4: debt is really high, and so it's kind of like

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Speaker 4: all of these big things that loop back into one another,

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Speaker 4: and it's kind of like whoa, you know, the Federal

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Speaker 4: Reserve impacts the US government. The US government impacts the

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Speaker 4: federal reserve, and that impacts me as a consumer, And

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Speaker 4: so it is trying to tie a thread between all

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Speaker 4: of these disparate, seemingly disparate things. Yeah, I think governments

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Speaker 4: have a responsibility to spend, but they also have a

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Speaker 4: responsibility to not have you know, servicing costs be so high,

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Speaker 4: the debt costs be so high, and I think that's

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Speaker 4: going to be the big struggle over the next decade.

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Speaker 4: Is we spend all this money, how do we pay

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Speaker 4: it off?

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Speaker 1: Sure? Yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 2: On the spending front, Jerome Powell in sixty Minutes mentioned

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Speaker 2: that our current gap between spending and current tax levels

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Speaker 2: it's just unsustainable. And so like, how do you think

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Speaker 2: the ballooning national debt and deficits are going to impact

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Speaker 2: the future? Is it as simple as okay, there are

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Speaker 2: going to be higher levels of taxes that are going

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Speaker 2: to be levied upon American citizens Or does it come

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Speaker 2: down to measures of austerity when it comes to what

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Speaker 2: folks are going to be willing to stomach.

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Speaker 3: I don't.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think that, like one of the

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Speaker 4: big lessons during the pandemic was that austerity doesn't have

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Speaker 4: to be the case. And you can sort of have

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Speaker 4: an economy outside of not spending money. But I think

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Speaker 4: now like we swung the pendulum so far on the

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Speaker 4: other side that it's like, Okay, we need to find

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Speaker 4: the middle ground between austerity and whatever, like we're doing

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Speaker 4: right now, and we are kind of finding that middle ground.

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Speaker 4: Like you know, the Biden administration passed the CHIPSAC, the IRA,

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Speaker 4: the IJA and all of those things were a lot

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Speaker 4: of money, and they are going to be a lot

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Speaker 4: of money, but they're not going to cost a bunch

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Speaker 4: of money into the future because.

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Speaker 1: They're creating jobs and stimulating the economy and creating growth exactly.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, that's the goal of them, and I do

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Speaker 4: think it'll work out that way. But yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 4: I it's like, because you can't raise taxes, especially in

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Speaker 4: an election year, but you're gonna have to figure out

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Speaker 4: something else to do to get money. And like the

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Speaker 4: government has been doing more bond issue wanes, because like

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Speaker 4: the way that a government makes money is through issuing

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Speaker 4: bonds or raising taxes on people. To sort of reduce

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Speaker 4: it to the simplest form, but I think that they're

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Speaker 4: going to need to really think about it. But it's

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Speaker 4: so I mean This is the really tough part about

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Speaker 4: economics is it does wade into the political so often.

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Speaker 4: And I think that's the big issue, is that, you know,

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Speaker 4: the polarization has made it hard to sort of accomplish

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Speaker 4: anything on either side.

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Speaker 1: They call it the dismal science for a reason. It

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Speaker 1: can't be a bummer sometimes for sure, especially when everything

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Speaker 1: is politicized and you're like, man, we just like let

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Speaker 1: some of this stuff be more math related and less emotional.

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Speaker 1: But speaking of that, like, one of the things I

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Speaker 1: love about a lot of the content you create, Kayla,

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Speaker 1: is you give a real human element and you view

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Speaker 1: things through a human lens. And I think that is

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Speaker 1: why people gravitate towards your work because sometimes a lot

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Speaker 1: of people in the economics profession it's like units, it's

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Speaker 1: the way we talk about people are there like plug

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Speaker 1: and play inside of an economic system. And you talk

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Speaker 1: about it from a very personal perspective, and you talk

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Speaker 1: about measurements of growth and economic health, and then you

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Speaker 1: discuss what you call the productivity paradox. You say consumption

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Speaker 1: is key to a healthy economy, but too much seems

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Speaker 1: to create an unhealthy society. And I feel like that's

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Speaker 1: like spot on. We're very much living through that. So

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Speaker 1: how do you think about the economy of a healthy

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Speaker 1: economy and healthy people.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's been like kind of a funny thing about

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Speaker 4: the economy over the past year, as you all know,

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Speaker 4: is like, oh, the American consumer is still spending, like

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Speaker 4: things are fine, but it's kind of like whoa, Like,

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Speaker 4: you know, the consumer spending is such a big part

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Speaker 4: of the economy and there's so many different ways to

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Speaker 4: measure that, and like so many different things go into it.

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Speaker 4: But like the general ideas that people spend money economy

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Speaker 4: go big. And I think that like when you sort

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Speaker 4: of pull back and think about that, it's like, well,

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Speaker 4: what are people spending money on? And now we're getting

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Speaker 4: all these reports about like credit card debt, the delinquency

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Speaker 4: rates going up a little bit. And I think too,

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Speaker 4: like as Americans, we struggle with consumerism. We really like

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Speaker 4: new stuff, and you know, for the long term that's

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Speaker 4: tough because we have these huge landfills that are going

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Speaker 4: to have to be taken care of one way or

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Speaker 4: the other. And consumption is great until you have to

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Speaker 4: deal with the trash part of it. And like we

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Speaker 4: did see a shift from goods to services to people

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Speaker 4: were engaging in like Taylor Swift concerts, for example, are

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Speaker 4: getting more haircuts or whatever. There's this piece called Life

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Speaker 4: after Lifestyle by Toby Shoren where he talks about how

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Speaker 4: a lot of people end up identifying through consumption, like

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Speaker 4: they identify themselves through the brands, and so then brands

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Speaker 4: end up setting culture and that's kind of weird world

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Speaker 4: to exist in.

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Speaker 1: Like a Stanley water bottle kind of person, that sort

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Speaker 1: of thing exactly.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, which is interesting. That's a good

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Speaker 4: example of the Veblin good where the price can increase

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Speaker 4: but people still buy it because it's kind of like

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Speaker 4: a luxury item. But yeah, I would say that's what

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Speaker 4: I have noticed is people spend a lot of money,

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Speaker 4: but there's still like this sense of anger and sadness

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Speaker 4: that money can't really fix, you know.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, especially this is something we've talked about on

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Speaker 2: the show before too, but especially when everything that you do,

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Speaker 2: whether it's your identity and even how it is that

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Speaker 2: you give to charities, when that is looked at or

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Speaker 2: sort of interpreted through this lens of consumption, something.

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Speaker 1: Just feels really off about that.

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Speaker 2: And it's just not our ability as individuals to consume,

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Speaker 2: but to like actually contribute to society in a way

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Speaker 2: that doesn't just boost profits of companies.

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Speaker 1: Building healthy communities and like raising families and like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: enjoying the nature around you. I mean, those are like

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Speaker 1: the things that make us human. But we've i think,

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Speaker 1: like identified being human in other ways through a more

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Speaker 1: consumptive lens, and that's like largely what leads to a

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Speaker 1: lot of this un happiness. It's like, yeah, marketing everything,

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Speaker 1: big business everything.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, No, I mean I think that's a really good point,

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Speaker 4: like sort of the your eyeballs are expensive commodities, Like

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Speaker 4: people will pay a lot of money for your attention,

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Speaker 4: and so I think that's created this sense of distrust

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Speaker 4: in people because it's like, well, what is an advertisement?

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Speaker 4: Like how can I trust anything if people are selling

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Speaker 4: to me all of the time and I'm tired? And

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Speaker 4: then I think to the point of like community too.

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Speaker 4: You know, a lot of people have talked about the

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Speaker 4: decline of third places, the loneliness crisis. You know, the

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Speaker 4: fertility rate is super low, and so we it's interesting

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Speaker 4: because like we have all of these kind of big

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Speaker 4: societal problems that we're sort of brushing under the rug

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Speaker 4: because they are really big, and I don't think anybody

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Speaker 4: knows how to fix them because they're so systemic.

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Speaker 3: But then we like.

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Speaker 4: Have companies like open Ai who are doing good work

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Speaker 4: and like you know, innovating on this really cool technology.

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Speaker 4: But the end state of that is concerning for all

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Speaker 4: of the big issues that we're facing already, and I

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Speaker 4: don't think we have a solution for it, and so

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Speaker 4: I don't I was talking to somebody earlier today about

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Speaker 4: Nintendo because Nintendo is going to release a new version

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Speaker 4: of the Switch and.

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Speaker 2: Twenty twenty five, right, yeah, yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 4: And so like investors are mad about that, but like

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Speaker 4: as a person, I'm kind of concerned, well not concerned,

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Speaker 4: but it's like, you know, they're a hardware company, but

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Speaker 4: are they going to build a Nintendo world like what

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Speaker 4: we see sort of a metaverse emerge out of the

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Speaker 4: video game companies sooner rather than later, so they you know,

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Speaker 4: these are questions that people have been tossing around for

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Speaker 4: the past couple of years, but like.

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Speaker 1: How far removed are we from a Wally esque future?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 4: And that's important to consider with the lens of the

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Speaker 4: economy too, Like I think what I tried to really

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Speaker 4: accomplish in the book, And what I try to do

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Speaker 4: with my work all the time is tie the economy

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Speaker 4: back to like these big societal problems and also these

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Speaker 4: exciting societal things like AI could be really cool depending

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Speaker 4: on how we use it, and all of that's kind

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Speaker 4: of like a component of the economy. And so I

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Speaker 4: think it's helpful to see the world around you as

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Speaker 4: like a web and see all of how how all

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Speaker 4: the pieces sort of connect, because then it doesn't feel

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Speaker 4: so big and confusing. But yeah, I mean, I think

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Speaker 4: all of these things are important to consider because we

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Speaker 4: are a capitalist society and so everything we do ultimately

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Speaker 4: does have a dollar signed attached to it. Yeah, and

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Speaker 4: it's important to recognize that as well.

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Speaker 1: One of the like criticisms it's always been levied against

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Speaker 1: the fire community is like financial independence retire early is

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Speaker 1: like if everyone did this, the economy would go to pot.

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Speaker 1: We'd all like we'd be like living in a third

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Speaker 1: world hell hole overnight or something like that. Right, So,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, I guess big growth kind of seems

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Speaker 1: to be the what our economy is based on. And

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Speaker 1: how do you like still have a thriving economy if

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Speaker 1: like growth over every single other metric begins to kind

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Speaker 1: of wane, and we like, how's that going to impact individuals, markets,

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Speaker 1: and investors.

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Speaker 4: That's the question that a lot of people are trying

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Speaker 4: to grapple with too, is like, you know, there's a

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Speaker 4: degrowth movement. It's kind of like, oh, we don't need

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Speaker 4: to grow as quickly as possible, but you know, we

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Speaker 4: have a very hungry machine on our hands, and the

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Speaker 4: machine demands growth at every cost. And I think that's

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Speaker 4: the concerning thing that we're going to have to figure out.

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Speaker 4: It's like, you know, you're right, like, how do you

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Speaker 4: keep the stock market moving if like companies aren't going

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Speaker 4: to be growing so much year over year? How do

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Speaker 4: you avoid an element of stagflation or even just stagnancy

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Speaker 4: in general? I think that like everything has been so

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Speaker 4: cheap and easy. This is a blanket statement, but like

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Speaker 4: things have been cheap and easy for the past twenty

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Speaker 4: or so years. Like energy is pretty cheap and easy.

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Speaker 4: We were able to frack find a bunch more energy.

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Speaker 4: But now we're like, oh, geez, this is probably gonna

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Speaker 4: you know, explode the earth, Like we should find alternatives,

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Speaker 4: but that's going to cost money and cost time, and

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Speaker 4: it's maybe won't be growth right away, but you can

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Speaker 4: already see people returning to oil and coal because it's like, oh,

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Speaker 4: green energy is too expensive, Like it's taking too much time.

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Speaker 3: We have to grow right now.

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Speaker 4: And so I think another thing not to like point

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Speaker 4: out all society's problems because everybody already knows, but like

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Speaker 4: we have this very short term mindset around a very

440
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 4: long term life. And I think that's like something that

441
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,199
Speaker 4: is just going to have to be taken into consideration

442
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 4: is things aren't cheap anymore. Everything is more expensive, people

443
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:02,719
Speaker 4: are more tired, and every generation has had problems, right,

444
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 4: But like I do think people now more than ever

445
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 4: are struggling with something real big, and how do we

446
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:13,400
Speaker 4: navigate that in the economy that's so reliant on growth.

447
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I think we totally agree. And you even

448
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 2: mentioned earlier short termism, which is what it seems like

449
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 2: is going through everybody's mind, especially those who are in

450
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 2: charge of policy, those who are in elected office. It

451
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,920
Speaker 2: seems like all the low hanging fruit has all been

452
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 2: snatched and we're kind of looking up and just being like, oh,

453
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a lot more it's gonna be a

454
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 2: lot harder to apples at the top of the tree. Yeah,

455
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 2: and for this to be sustainable. But Kyla, we've got

456
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,400
Speaker 2: much more to talk about. We might get to housing,

457
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 2: maybe even crypto, but we get to all that more.

458
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:44,320
Speaker 2: Right after the break.

459
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 1: We're back from the break, We're still talking with Kyla Scanlon.

460
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 1: We're talking about her new book, In This Economy, which

461
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,439
Speaker 1: is just a great name for a book these days.

462
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 1: And I still remember, I'm sure this was like an

463
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 1: inflection point for you. You read your newsletter every time it

464
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 1: comes out, and you had one about the Vibe Session

465
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 1: and that was like your most popular one ever or something,

466
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:14,159
Speaker 1: and I think you got like an article in the

467
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 1: New York Times because of it. And then in your

468
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 1: book you say that vibes hold a surprising amount of

469
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 1: power over outcomes. So, okay, vibes feels like this kind

470
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 1: of hard to touch sort of thing. What do vibes

471
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 1: even mean? And then how does that shake out? What

472
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,119
Speaker 1: do how do vibes and the way people I guess

473
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 1: feel despite maybe the economic numbers and stuff that come out,

474
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 1: how do those feelings impact outcomes?

475
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 4: Yeah?

476
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the.

477
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 4: Vibe Session was written back in twenty twenty two when

478
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 4: we saw this like really big disconnection between consumers and

479
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 4: and economic data.

480
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 3: So people were.

481
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 4: Feeling tremendously bad despite the economy doing relatively okay. And

482
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 4: so when I wrote that piece, it was kind of

483
00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:00,200
Speaker 4: a reflection of the comments that I was getting on

484
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,439
Speaker 4: the videos that I was producing on social media, so

485
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 4: like TikTok, Instagram, et cetera. I would be like, inflation

486
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 4: is going down, and people would be like, I hate

487
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 4: everything and I'm sad, and I was kind of like,

488
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:17,360
Speaker 4: what's like, why what's happening here? And so, yeah, exactly,

489
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 4: or take out a loan to egg your house. But yeah,

490
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 4: I think that was that was kind of like the

491
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 4: impetus of that piece. And then the reason that I

492
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 4: said that vibes were so important and I still believe

493
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 4: that they are, is inflation expectations are really important, right,

494
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 4: Like what people think is going to happen with inflation

495
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,879
Speaker 4: like sort of influences how inflation shows up in the world.

496
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 4: There's been a lot of research on this. It's kind

497
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 4: of like a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts, And that's

498
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 4: sort of the idea of the vibe session is that

499
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 4: it is a self fulfilling prophecy, like if people feel

500
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 4: really bad about the economy, is the economy even good?

501
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 4: Like do the metrics actually matter? And the research has

502
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 4: sort of evolved since then to take into account like

503
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 4: structural affordability problems like housing. Right, we have a housing

504
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 4: crisis that's super hard to navigate and it's going to

505
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 4: create you know, so called bad vibes, So the vibes themselves,

506
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 4: there is an element of reality to them. Media headlines

507
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 4: are another good example, like if you have a negative

508
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 4: word in a media headline, your click through rate increases

509
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,880
Speaker 4: by two point three percent. A positive word it decreases

510
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 4: by one point nine percent, So that can influence vibes.

511
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 4: It's just like I think in economics oftentimes a lot

512
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 4: of researchers do a great job at incorporating like how

513
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 4: people feel, but I think more so now than ever,

514
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 4: it's really important to consider how people feel about their

515
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 4: economic circumstances because that's ultimately more informative of how they'll

516
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 4: end up feeling about the economy at large, their job prospects,

517
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,640
Speaker 4: what they end up doing, how they choose to innovate.

518
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 4: So that that was kind of how that research came about.

519
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 4: And why I think the vibes are important. It's because

520
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 4: you know, how people feel matters. As like silly as

521
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 4: that sound, it's like it really is true.

522
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean it does have a massive impact

523
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 2: and actual you know, like we're kind of specifically talking

524
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 2: about the vibe session that over the past couple of years,

525
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 2: but just general like what we're talking about here are

526
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 2: just general perceptions and attitudes towards what is actually going on.

527
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 2: But that being said, like actual recessions, they do occur,

528
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 2: and so talk about I guess booms and busts, talk

529
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 2: about bubbles and how it is that vibes or attitudes,

530
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 2: how it impacts those cycles and maybe even what lies

531
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 2: ahead for us if you're so willing to make a

532
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 2: prediction a forecast.

533
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think speculative nature. It is just

534
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,679
Speaker 4: human nature. Like you know, some people say the toolip

535
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 4: bubble was a siop, but like there was something happening

536
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,119
Speaker 4: with the tulips, and like you know, back in the

537
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 4: sixteen hundreds and people buying a bunch of them and

538
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 4: you know, not enough toolips. All of a sudden the

539
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 4: price skyrockets and then the same thing happened during the

540
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 4: tech bubble of the late nineteen nineties. It's all speculation.

541
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 4: It's a lot of it's human nature. The two thousand

542
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,120
Speaker 4: and eight Great Financial Crisis was of course bad behavior

543
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 4: by banks that wasn't necessarily people driven. But you know,

544
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 4: people were getting into mortgages that they had no business

545
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,360
Speaker 4: getting into, but they didn't necessarily know that.

546
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,959
Speaker 2: Right, And then it was almost like the opposite at

547
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 2: that point, right right, Like you look back to the

548
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 2: Great Recession. Basically folks, everything looked rosier than it actually

549
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 2: was because the banks at that point in time were saying, oh, yeah, oh,

550
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 2: you totally qualify.

551
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: Actually you qualify for multiple you have a pulse, Okay,

552
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 1: let's give me this loan.

553
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 2: Yeah.

554
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 4: Even if you didn't have a pulse, they were like,

555
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 4: well sign it to your gravestone.

556
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 1: Yeah.

557
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:32,879
Speaker 4: Right, then the vibes are good and like there was

558
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,640
Speaker 4: exuberance and all that stuff. And so I think that's

559
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 4: super important to considers because like how people feel like

560
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 4: ends up dictating how they spend money, right, And I

561
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 4: think a lot of the consumer spending that we've seen

562
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 4: over the past few years has been if they call

563
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 4: it post COVID yellow spending, Like people were like we

564
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 4: almost died. Like sure, let's go to ce Taylor Swift

565
00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:00,439
Speaker 4: for thirteen hundred dollars. But that's driven bye bye in

566
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 4: credit card debt most of the time, even though consumers

567
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:07,120
Speaker 4: do have a decent amount of savings. But I would say, like, yeah,

568
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 4: vibes are really important, and like maintenance of vibes is

569
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 4: really important. Like the Federal Reserve, one of their tools

570
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,120
Speaker 4: and their toolkit is forward guidance. So they have rates,

571
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 4: they have their balance sheet, and then they have forward guidance,

572
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 4: which is them just like talking and so like how

573
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 4: they talk ends up dictating how the market responds, like

574
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 4: what traders end up doing, what the high frequency trades

575
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 4: end up doing, And that's all vibe space. Like it's

576
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 4: like based on the color of Jerome Pal's tie, you know,

577
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 4: so it's.

578
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 1: Like the specific words to use.

579
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, get me really'd be crazy?

580
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:44,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, markets tank, But yeah, I mean I think that's

581
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 4: kind of like the thesis of vibes is we have

582
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 4: to pay attention to consumer sentiment, especially now with information being.

583
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 3: So fast moving.

584
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:56,359
Speaker 4: Is that like you look at the stock market, and

585
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 4: of course the stock market is not the economy, but

586
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 4: like you look at the stock market that is not

587
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,120
Speaker 4: trading on fundamentals at all, Like there is no sense

588
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 4: of reality to a lot of the stocks in the

589
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 4: stock market. It's just based on expectations and like what

590
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 4: people think that could happen to the various companies. One

591
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,439
Speaker 4: of my jobs before I started this job was to

592
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 4: build financial models for various firms and like various companies

593
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 4: and predict what stock price they would be.

594
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 3: And it didn't matter. It never mattered what the model said.

595
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 4: And I think that can be true in the economy

596
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 4: as well, is that you can have all the predictions

597
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,640
Speaker 4: in the world and like how people feel will dictate

598
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 4: a large portion of what actually ends up happening.

599
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 1: All right, So this one of the things you mentioned

600
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: in your book and has been historically true, is that

601
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 1: if when we go through an actual recession, there's a

602
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: lot of opportunity in a recession, which seems kind of counterintuitive.

603
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: It seems like recession bad, I should be sad, I'd

604
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 1: live under a rock sort of thing. But even during

605
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 1: COVID we saw like small business formation skyrocket. So I

606
00:28:55,520 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 1: guess bad circumstances can lead to good outcomes for or

607
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 1: a segment of the population who is willing to take

608
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: on some risk. So can you talk about maybe the

609
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: opportunities that a recession can provide.

610
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I mean.

611
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 4: I think like there were a lot of people cheering

612
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 4: through recession in my comments section during the twenty twenty

613
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 4: era because a lot of people wanted to buy a

614
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 4: house for cheap, and so, like that's just one example

615
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 4: of what could happen. Is the home prices can go

616
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 4: down during a recession. Stock prices end up going down,

617
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 4: so you can kind of get things on an economic discount,

618
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 4: of course, at the cost of the broad economy. But

619
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 4: there are positives to a recession because it's a business cycle.

620
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,959
Speaker 4: Like we're not going to necessarily be in a recession forever.

621
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 4: And I'm not saying it's a good thing by any means,

622
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 4: but a lot of people do think it's a good

623
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 4: thing because it's like a reset for the economy. Like

624
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 4: it shakes out a lot of companies that maybe shouldn't exist,

625
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 4: like a lot of zombie companies that have you know,

626
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 4: investor money, but really don't have any products.

627
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 3: It shakes out for some.

628
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 1: Of the riskiest investors too, maybe who have made bad bets.

629
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, exactly.

630
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 4: It's something like Game Stop probably wouldn't happen during a recession,

631
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 4: and so like there's just a lot more of a

632
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 4: sense of reality during a recession. And of course, like

633
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 4: you know, jobs are lost. It's it's extremely hard, Like

634
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 4: two thousand and eight was devastating for like my family specifically,

635
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 4: and I know many others. So it's not a good thing.

636
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 4: But like, there are opportunities because it is a cycle,

637
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 4: because there is an other side to them most of

638
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 4: the time.

639
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 2: I mean, I want to touch on housing because you

640
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 2: mentioned how a lot of folks were rooting for a

641
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 2: recession because for them it would have presented that opportunity.

642
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 2: You would devote a whole chapter to the to the

643
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 2: messed up housing market. And I really like the section

644
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 2: on reflexivity. Talk to us about how feedback loops, how

645
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 2: they influence our decision making and lead to market movements

646
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 2: if you don't mind.

647
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I know, housing I think is super important,

648
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 4: but yeah, reflexivity is kind of like the same idea,

649
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 4: Like people will go into a market and they'll be like, oh,

650
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 4: the price is cheap, and the market the price will

651
00:30:58,040 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 4: get bit up, and then it's sort of like this

652
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 4: few of the price getting bid up and then people

653
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 4: you know, enter and exit. And I think you can

654
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 4: see that model like animal spirits, reflexivity, those sorts of

655
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 4: things show up across all aspects of the economy, and

656
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 4: they're very, very similar to vibes, like how people feel

657
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 4: about certain price movements, what they end up doing in

658
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 4: response to those price movements ends up influencing how things

659
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 4: ultimately move.

660
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 1: And it seems like, tell me if I'm wrong. But

661
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 1: in cities where we're seeing zoning laws change, we're seeing

662
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 1: more housing being built. Austin, let's say, we're starting to

663
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 1: see prices decline. It also could be partly that Austin

664
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: went haywire for a while too, more so than some

665
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: other cities. But how do you think about maybe the

666
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 1: lack of housing supply and the strict zoning rules in

667
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: parts of the countries where people want to live and

668
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 1: there's just not enough units being built because of maybe

669
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 1: some of the red tape that's blocking their way.

670
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I actually did an interview with the Deputy

671
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 4: Secretary of the Treasury, Whalley Daamo about how the US

672
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 4: government was thinking about housing, specifically the US Treasury, And yeah,

673
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 4: like the whole takeaway from the interview was like, we

674
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 4: don't have enough homes anywhere and in places that people

675
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 4: want to live, and so I think housing supply is

676
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 4: like really the big issue in zoning specifically is such

677
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 4: a headache because we don't allow for a lot of

678
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 4: mixed use zoning and a lot of places so you

679
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 4: can't mix commercial and residential. And then in cities like

680
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 4: Los Angeles, for example, like la is seventy percent zoned

681
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 4: for single family, so you can't build a lot of

682
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 4: apartment complexes or duplexes or triplexes or town homes.

683
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 1: It's like ADUs are the only thing that people have

684
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 1: been able to build there, And yeah, last couple of years,

685
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 1: it seems like.

686
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, and like the part of the reason for that

687
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 4: is nimbiism, like not in my backyard, where people are

688
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 4: wanting to protect the value of their home. And what's

689
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 4: interesting about housing And I didn't cover this in the

690
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 4: book because I didn't, but I wish I had, because house,

691
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 4: I'm saying, was never meant to be this like speculative asset.

692
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 4: Like over the past up until like the nineties, I

693
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 4: think housing had only returned zero point zero six percent

694
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 4: over the past hundred years up into the nineties versus

695
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 4: the last however many years has returned like sixty percent,

696
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 4: and I'm just ballparking that number.

697
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 3: But now we view.

698
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 4: Homes as something to live in, but then also something

699
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 4: that's meant to be this huge part of our investment portfolio.

700
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 4: And if you look at this chart that the Federal

701
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 4: Reserve releases called the Distribution of Financial Assets, you can

702
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 4: see the bottom fifty percent, all of their wealth is

703
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 4: tied up into their home, like that is their asset.

704
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 4: And then if you look at the top ten percent,

705
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 4: they have business ownership and they have stocks, and that's

706
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 4: where all of their money is coming from. And so

707
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 4: in the United States, we've created this world where people

708
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 4: feel like they have to get a home in order

709
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 4: to make any money or to have any sort of

710
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 4: nest egg for their kids. When really, if you look

711
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 4: at like the example of the really rich, its equities

712
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 4: and it's business ownership as much as possible, which is

713
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 4: harder to achieve, but like it's probably an important path

714
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 4: to set people on. And so like the US housing

715
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 4: market is a nightmare because of that, Like we have

716
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 4: this thing that we're saying, like, Okay, go live in that,

717
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 4: but then also expect to make a million dollars from it,

718
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:13,919
Speaker 4: and you don't want anybody to build around you because

719
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 4: you want to preserve the value of your home so

720
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 4: that you can die a millionaire.

721
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 3: And it's like we.

722
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 4: Have just this huge, like warped mindset around it, and

723
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 4: it's like very prevalent. I think it contributed the housing

724
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 4: theory of everything. I sorry, I could like talk for

725
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 4: an hour straight about housing, but yeah, the housing theory

726
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 4: of everything I think really applies. Like you know, we

727
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 4: don't have walk couple cities, so people like see their

728
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 4: homes as this place to inhabit, this place don't really live,

729
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 4: and we expect it to be something that will make

730
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:46,280
Speaker 4: us really rich and safe.

731
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 1: So how do you help people like think about that

732
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 1: when or your followers and stuff. When you look at

733
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 1: the numbers and hey, buying at these rates and at

734
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 1: these prices and renting is going to cost me half

735
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 1: as much, But then I don't feel like I'm living

736
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 1: the American dream that I want to live. That can

737
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 1: be like deflating, but from an economic reality, it means

738
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,320
Speaker 1: you've got a lot more money to funnel into investments

739
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 1: or into business building. So that's something we've talked about

740
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 1: is like that cult of home ownership is over sold

741
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 1: and for a lot of our listeners, hey, maybe it's

742
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,359
Speaker 1: a later thing or maybe it's a never thing, because

743
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 1: you can build wealth in so many other ways. I

744
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,839
Speaker 1: don't know, how do you help people think through that conundrum.

745
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's tough.

746
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,399
Speaker 4: I think there's this expectation that's kind of built in

747
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,399
Speaker 4: to like getting a home, like the quote unquote American dream, right,

748
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 4: like you feel like you should have the white picket fence.

749
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 4: But I think you all are right, Like there is

750
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 4: other ways to build wealth. And so the way that

751
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 4: I try to talk about it is like you're not

752
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 4: crazy for feeling like you can't afford a home, like

753
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,839
Speaker 4: there is a structural affordability problem crisis year, like there

754
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:52,840
Speaker 4: aren't enough homes, And there is really interesting theories around

755
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 4: you know, renters and what they're able to do outside

756
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 4: of buying a home, like they'll go. And it seems

757
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 4: like sports gambling is popular, but investing is popular too,

758
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 4: So there are alternatives to building wealth or spending your

759
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 4: money in general. But it's it's a tough thing to

760
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 4: talk about. I try to talk about the policies a

761
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 4: lot people are building, they are passing laws to like

762
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,240
Speaker 4: fix this stuff. It's just going to take time.

763
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, and of all markets that one moves slowly. It

764
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 1: just we don't have those like those little concrete pouring

765
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 1: things that kind of look like they're spinning out toothpaste,

766
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 1: but it's concrete to make houses. Like I'd realize that

767
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 1: they've made a couple communities out of that sort of stuff.

768
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 1: But housing is so individual, I mean, and it's such

769
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,399
Speaker 1: a such a hairy concept though too, because it's not

770
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: just so like what we're talking about right now are

771
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 1: like the fundamentals we're talking about, the actual red tape,

772
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 1: the policies that allow further to be more or less housing.

773
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 1: But then again, like Kyla was talking about, when you

774
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:54,399
Speaker 1: start looking at it through an investment wealth building lens

775
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 1: as well, it gets really really stink and complicated because

776
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 1: you start to think, well, at some point it's a

777
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 1: bubble will pop until you realize that like we'll shoot,

778
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 1: I still need somewhere to live, or you look at

779
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 1: Toronto and you're like that bubble never pop, or it's

780
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 1: like twenty years, right, That's what it's so crazy about.

781
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 1: Oh you're like, hey, I'm twenty nine. I'm having my

782
00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 1: second kid. It's time, and you feel like that's the

783
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 1: thing about housing. Sometimes it is situational and is personal,

784
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 1: and it's it's less about the numbers and it's more

785
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 1: about like how you feel and wanting to move on

786
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 1: to that ladder, and like the actual specific economics a

787
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 1: reality of it, like it doesn't matter to you quite

788
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:29,919
Speaker 1: as much.

789
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 3: In the moment.

790
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 1: So, Kyla, we've got more questions we want to get

791
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 1: to with you in just a second. We specifically want

792
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:35,439
Speaker 1: to talk about I don't know, let's get a little

793
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 1: macro here. What is money? We'll talk about that and

794
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 1: more in just a second.

795
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 2: Right, we are back for the break in, Kyla, like

796
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 2: Jiel alluded to, let's talk about money, because you've been

797
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 2: talking about money this whole way we have last section

798
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 2: is mostly about vibes and attitude, and I guess this

799
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:01,359
Speaker 2: is kind of a continuation of that because you write this,

800
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 2: and this is a quote from your book that money

801
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 2: is a presence that haunts our daily activities, which I

802
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 2: think a lot of people certainly agree to agree with that.

803
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people feel that way. But

804
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 2: you also say that it is a social construct that

805
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 2: relies on trust. Yeah, it's almost like it's almost like

806
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:20,800
Speaker 2: a language. Sure, it works, but it's only as useful

807
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 2: as other folks are also using that language. Otherwise it's

808
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 2: just you doing your nerdy thing with letters exactly. So

809
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:31,279
Speaker 2: I guess what I want to ask is, like, how

810
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 2: do you think we should be thinking about money? I guess, yeah,

811
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 2: especially just in the digital age.

812
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, and money is I yes, like the A lot

813
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 4: of the first part of the book is dedicated to

814
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,799
Speaker 4: money because I think it's like so cool. I think

815
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 4: that money is like such a fascinating thing because it

816
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 4: is sort of this collective trust between everybody, Like you know,

817
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:56,399
Speaker 4: the US dollar bill is backed by the full faith

818
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 4: and credit of the US government.

819
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 3: Like that is a transaction of trust that we're all doing.

820
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,319
Speaker 4: We're all like, yes, this money means something. And I

821
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 4: think that, you know, not to get like too woo,

822
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:06,359
Speaker 4: the money's not real, but like it is cool how

823
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 4: that actually happens.

824
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:09,320
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think money.

825
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 4: In the digital age is interesting because I think we're

826
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:16,280
Speaker 4: still trying to figure out what money is. Like, money

827
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 4: is sort of this promise. It's a glue that holds

828
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 4: society together. And how does that apply to the digital forefront,

829
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:25,359
Speaker 4: like we have credit cards, we have you know, the

830
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:27,720
Speaker 4: US government is kind of going digital with some aspects

831
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:29,319
Speaker 4: of money. We don't use cash as much as we

832
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 4: used to, so like we have digitized a large part

833
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 4: of the transaction experience. But like will it be cryptos right?

834
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 4: Like will there be a central bank digital currency? I

835
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 4: don't think anybody really knows the answer to that. I

836
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 4: know the Federal Reserve isn't too interested, but yeah, I

837
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 4: mean I think it's going to be Like there's kind

838
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:51,840
Speaker 4: of an opportunity to rethink how how money works, Like

839
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 4: do we apply it to a blockchain?

840
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:55,879
Speaker 3: Right?

841
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 4: Like do we have sort of a digital letter ledger?

842
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 4: Do we kind of keep it how it is now?

843
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,359
Speaker 4: I think video games are kind of a cool place

844
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 4: to learn about money and transactions, like how they have

845
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:09,880
Speaker 4: each each game kind of sometimes has it in unit currency.

846
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 4: I'm sort of rambling about the exciting parts of money.

847
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 4: But I think again, like it's another question of what

848
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 4: could happen is how we treat money and is it

849
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 4: going to be as necessary as it is now? Are

850
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 4: we gonna have universal basic income? Like there's a lot

851
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 4: of interesting things to consider, but yeah, just the structure

852
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,359
Speaker 4: of money is so fascinating.

853
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 1: You mentioned crypto, and I think probably initially Matt and

854
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 1: I were crypto skeptics, and I would say we're still

855
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 1: certainly not like full throated apologists or crypto or anything

856
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 1: like that. But it does like the way we use

857
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 1: money mostly digitally these days. It works pretty well for

858
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 1: most people, being able to send money via Venmo, being

859
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 1: able to log into their bank account, transfer money from

860
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 1: one place to another, credit cards like that system seems

861
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 1: to work decently well. But does bitcoin or cryptocurrency any

862
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 1: other other kinds of cryptocurrency Do those meet your threshold

863
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:10,239
Speaker 1: definition of what money is? And like, I don't know,

864
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 1: do you see that being more of a prevalent way

865
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 1: that we exchange money in the future.

866
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 3: No cryptos right now?

867
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:17,799
Speaker 1: Do?

868
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,760
Speaker 4: I mean? I think bitcoin has an identity crisis, which

869
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 4: is a non popular take for the bitcoin people who

870
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 4: might be listening. But like, is it a currency? Is

871
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 4: it an asset? You can't have something gain and value

872
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:31,280
Speaker 4: and then expect to spend it on a cup of coffee.

873
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 4: It just doesn't work financially ethere m is more, I

874
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 4: think the digital computer kind of world, so I don't

875
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 4: think any crypto right now has meant that qualification. But

876
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,080
Speaker 4: I don't think crypto's goal is to be money. I

877
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 4: think it is to be like an investment class, which

878
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:50,840
Speaker 4: is fine, So no, I don't think so. I like

879
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 4: this is kind of where I wish my imagination was better,

880
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 4: because I would love to really think about like what

881
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 4: a world could look like with new money and like

882
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 4: what it could look like to turn act differently, But

883
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 4: I just am not that creative.

884
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 3: And so I think that there is.

885
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 4: A lot of exciting stuff that crypto has shown us,

886
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 4: despite like obviously the terrible parts of crypto FTX included

887
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 4: that have made it not so good, But I think

888
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 4: there's cool things that we can pull from the technology.

889
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 4: Like I think one of the things I also try

890
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 4: to hopefully get across in the book is that nothing

891
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:29,319
Speaker 4: is black and white, like everything is very nuanced, which

892
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 4: can be frustrating, I think, but like that's how I

893
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 4: think of most economic concepts, is like there's an element

894
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 4: of nuanced all of it. And I think here so

895
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:39,359
Speaker 4: with money and crypto and how it all relates, there's

896
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:40,720
Speaker 4: so much nuance in it.

897
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 1: And like nuance doesn't sell, it's you know, like that's

898
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:46,839
Speaker 1: so like Matt and I are all shades of gray

899
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 1: on the show too, and sometimes we're like, man, if

900
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 1: we just had a harder line on this or that,

901
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:53,879
Speaker 1: like maybe get more clicks, But like that's just that's

902
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 1: just not typically Typically you're selling something then and you're

903
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,320
Speaker 1: not trying to help people or or tell the truth.

904
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:02,879
Speaker 2: I meant like, as you're talking through bitcoin not being

905
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:05,399
Speaker 2: a currency, and again, Joe, I mean, folks who listen

906
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:07,399
Speaker 2: to the show know that we tell folks to not buy,

907
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 2: to not buy crypto, like you need to be investing.

908
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 1: In the boring stuff.

909
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, the s and P within your four one K

910
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 2: we talk about the basics, but I couldn't help but

911
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 2: to think about, like what is it that's causing bitcoin

912
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 2: to go up? And it's because folks believe that it

913
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 2: might be the currency, the medium of exchange of the future.

914
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 2: And it kind of makes me think about even the

915
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:29,320
Speaker 2: US dollar and how in other countries, what are folks

916
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:31,839
Speaker 2: doing They're hoarding American dollars, Like there is so much

917
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:34,440
Speaker 2: money that is in circulation because they know, like you

918
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 2: said that the US dollar it's backed by the might

919
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:40,359
Speaker 2: of the United States and everything that it represents and

920
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 2: So if I guess step outside of the boundaries of

921
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:48,919
Speaker 2: the US and kind of visualize bitcoin in the same

922
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 2: way that maybe other countries do, that's the part where

923
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 2: I start to think, well, shoot, I don't know, maybe

924
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:56,360
Speaker 2: it could be a currency, because isn't that what folks

925
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 2: abroad are doing?

926
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:57,239
Speaker 5: Yeah?

927
00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 4: Maybe I think it's more like stability with the US

928
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 4: dollar versus like bitcoin.

929
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 3: People want that thing.

930
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 1: Which feels very unstable.

931
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:06,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're like, k.

932
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 4: You know, what was the big bed on Twitter the

933
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 4: last year, like bitcoin reaching one million or something?

934
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 3: Do you all remember that?

935
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:17,799
Speaker 1: Oh? No, I don't. Okay, Yeah, spends all his time

936
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:22,840
Speaker 1: on X for my phone. I check in like twice

937
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 1: a week for like five minutes. I don't really care about.

938
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 3: Twitterer, the freedom.

939
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 1: Take the.

940
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 3: I do.

941
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 1: We have talked so much about macroeconomics and how they

942
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:39,400
Speaker 1: have the wide world of like money and high finance

943
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 1: impacts us. In your opinion, what are the most important

944
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:45,239
Speaker 1: things that the average person should be paying attention to

945
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,560
Speaker 1: keeping tabs on especially? I mean think about we live

946
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:50,880
Speaker 1: in the information age, and it can be sometimes like

947
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:52,799
Speaker 1: you just want to check out and watch a good

948
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:55,840
Speaker 1: show on Netflix or whatever, because it just all feels

949
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 1: so overwhelming. So what are maybe like the most important

950
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 1: things you would say, these, these are the things you

951
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 1: should be kind of like keeping an eye on if

952
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:06,720
Speaker 1: you want to be an informed, informed person in today's

953
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:07,440
Speaker 1: modern economy.

954
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think that it's hard because there's like,

955
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 4: how I get asked this a lot, and I never

956
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 4: really have a good answer to it because it's like, yes,

957
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:21,719
Speaker 4: you need to pay attention to inflation, and you need

958
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 4: to pay attention to the labor market reports, you need

959
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:28,280
Speaker 4: to pay attention to the GDP prints, but like there's

960
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 4: so much interpretation with those numbers. So I think that

961
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 4: it's like important to pay attention to the jobs market,

962
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 4: Like what's happening? Are people quitting their jobs? Like what's

963
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 4: the quits rate doing? Is there a lot of job openings?

964
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:45,279
Speaker 4: Is inflation going down? What's driving inflation? You know right

965
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 4: now it's auto insurance? What does that mean for you

966
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 4: as a consumer? What does it mean that shelter costs

967
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,839
Speaker 4: are so high? And then in terms of GDP, like

968
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 4: as the economy growing. But like with all of that

969
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:58,720
Speaker 4: being said, there's a lot of confusion with these metrics,

970
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 4: and like the data doesn't always really capture reality in

971
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 4: a large sense. And I don't know if we have

972
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 4: time to get into all of that, but like inflation

973
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 4: sometimes is weird because shelter costs are driving it, but

974
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:11,759
Speaker 4: like rents are going down and it's kind of like

975
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:12,760
Speaker 4: just there's a lag.

976
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:15,880
Speaker 1: So it's personal. Rates of inflation can differ too, depending

977
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 1: on what.

978
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 4: You're precisely, and so I think it's just kind of

979
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:22,400
Speaker 4: like having a broad overview of the economy. Like the

980
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 4: way that I sometimes talk about is like everybody knows

981
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:28,319
Speaker 4: that the mitochondria is the powerhouse of the cell, right,

982
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 4: and you kind of have to like know what all

983
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 4: the mitochondrias of the economy are, so like knowing the

984
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 4: mitochondria of GDP and like inflation and labor market, just

985
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 4: so you have a general sense of what's happening, but

986
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:42,800
Speaker 4: like not going too deep into the weeds, because sometimes

987
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 4: that data isn't very helpful.

988
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 2: Well, I think what you're pointing to is that, like

989
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 2: it's good to be to reflect on that data, but like, ultimately,

990
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:51,680
Speaker 2: so much of it comes down to us as individuals

991
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 2: and what it is that we're choosing to do. And

992
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 2: I think that we can externalize our failures or our successes,

993
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 2: but man, the ability for us to internally and to

994
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:04,120
Speaker 2: take action within our own lives. I think that ultimately

995
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:06,799
Speaker 2: is going to move the needle a lot more than

996
00:47:07,040 --> 00:47:11,400
Speaker 2: perhaps how certain pieces of data might be interpreted. But Kyla,

997
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:13,800
Speaker 2: we really appreciate you talking with us. Where can folks

998
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:14,960
Speaker 2: learn about the book?

999
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:17,919
Speaker 4: Yes, so they can go to paying on random house

1000
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 4: dot com and search in This Economy. There's also information

1001
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:25,280
Speaker 4: all on all my social pages at Kyla scan on Instagram,

1002
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:28,800
Speaker 4: on Twitter, at Kyla Scanlon on YouTube. My newsletter is

1003
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:31,959
Speaker 4: Kyla dot subseac dot com. The book itself is called

1004
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 4: in This Economy, where you can find out more. There

1005
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:38,799
Speaker 4: are sixty illustrations. There's an ebook version, there's an audiobook version.

1006
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 4: You can also purchase a signed version if you choose

1007
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 4: to do so, or just purchase a regular version, which

1008
00:47:45,680 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 4: is always so appreciated. But yeah, thank you guys for

1009
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:49,440
Speaker 4: having me on, of course.

1010
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, Kyla, we really enjoyed this combo. Thank you so

1011
00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 1: much for coming on.

1012
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 3: Of course.

1013
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 2: Well nice, okay, So, I honestly I felt that we

1014
00:47:57,040 --> 00:47:59,800
Speaker 2: could have spent a full hour just talking about BIS

1015
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 2: and we almost went down that path where Kyla was

1016
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 2: like I've I've got a bike for every different activity

1017
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 2: of the weekend. So they took a bike vacation to

1018
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 2: France that we talked about before we start, were not

1019
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 2: recording about that, So I mean that's cool. Yeah, totally

1020
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 2: up our alley. We love Kyla's kind of approach to

1021
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:21,360
Speaker 2: life in that way. But yeah, regarding in this economy,

1022
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,400
Speaker 2: you have the big takeaway from our conversation or from

1023
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 2: her book, Joel.

1024
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, So one of the things Kyla said earlier on,

1025
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 1: she said it's easier to make good decisions when you

1026
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:32,360
Speaker 1: have better information. And that's true. I mean, think about

1027
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:35,200
Speaker 1: it in like a negotiation. If your boss is saying

1028
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 1: it was I can only give you a five percent raise,

1029
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 1: and you've got information you know some of your co

1030
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 1: workers got a ten, twelve, fifteen percent raise and that

1031
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 1: actually they don't have any other prospects and they need

1032
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 1: someone to fill this role asap. You have good information,

1033
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:50,839
Speaker 1: you know that you can push the UH test those

1034
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 1: limits of what they're willing to pay you. Those are

1035
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:54,799
Speaker 1: the kind of things, right, Like, the more information that

1036
00:48:54,840 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 1: we have, and and she was also saying kind at

1037
00:48:57,520 --> 00:48:59,040
Speaker 1: the end, you can get bogged down in information. You

1038
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:00,799
Speaker 1: can try to consume too much of it. But I

1039
00:49:00,800 --> 00:49:03,279
Speaker 1: think if you pick and choose the most important things

1040
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,800
Speaker 1: to follow in kind of what's happening in the economy,

1041
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:09,400
Speaker 1: that extra information can act as an advantage for you.

1042
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 1: It makes me think of what we were talking about,

1043
00:49:11,320 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 1: Matt in twenty twenty three, when job switchers were getting

1044
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 1: paid a whole lot more, and it's like, well, in

1045
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:20,439
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, there the gap between getting paid more by

1046
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 1: Mosey and down the road and stay input was minimal,

1047
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:25,319
Speaker 1: and in twenty twenty three it was significant, And so

1048
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 1: that was like the best time to change jobs if

1049
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:31,160
Speaker 1: you were interested in doing something else. It was going

1050
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:34,280
Speaker 1: to provide a bigger economic impact. So let that data

1051
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 1: sway you what's happening in the economy sway you, or

1052
00:49:36,760 --> 00:49:39,240
Speaker 1: at least let it help inform the decisions you're making.

1053
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 2: Sure, Yeah, okay, So my big takeaway will be the

1054
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 2: other side of that coin, which is essentially there is

1055
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:48,239
Speaker 2: the possibility of being inundated with too much information, And

1056
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 2: I think that's the you know, again, we try to

1057
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 2: find somewhere right in the middle to have like the

1058
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:55,880
Speaker 2: right amount of information. It's the goldilocks paradox, right, Like

1059
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:57,720
Speaker 2: you don't want too little, you don't want too much,

1060
00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 2: because I think one of the risks that we run

1061
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:05,240
Speaker 2: with being just completely overrun with information is the risk

1062
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 2: the danger of blaming things on other folks as opposed

1063
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:09,840
Speaker 2: to knowing that, man, there is so much that we

1064
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:12,240
Speaker 2: can do on our own regardless of what the quits

1065
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:15,200
Speaker 2: rate is. How am I doing within my industry or

1066
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:19,040
Speaker 2: specifically even just within my specific company. And that's, honestly,

1067
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:20,600
Speaker 2: that's what we strive to do here on the show,

1068
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 2: Like we are trying to find the pieces of information

1069
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 2: that pertain to individuals' lives the most, while trying to

1070
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:30,759
Speaker 2: ignore the rest, because a lot of that can be

1071
00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 2: just white noise.

1072
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 1: Yes, you're right, and I think one of the kind

1073
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 1: of what you're what you're alluding to as well, is

1074
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:39,239
Speaker 1: the healthier your personal finances are, the less you need

1075
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:42,520
Speaker 1: to be intricately aware of everything that's happening in the economy.

1076
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 2: Like because imagine somebody who's completely financially independent, they're not

1077
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 2: dependent on anybody, anything, any company for their livelihood.

1078
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 1: If there's like dark recession clouds coming over the water,

1079
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:55,840
Speaker 1: and you can see that in the economic data but

1080
00:50:56,040 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 1: you have a six month emergency fund, you have a

1081
00:50:59,080 --> 00:51:01,400
Speaker 1: job that you're doing well like, you have to be

1082
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 1: far less worried as the person living paycheck to paycheck.

1083
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:07,399
Speaker 1: So that's where personalance is so crucial. But then it

1084
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:11,440
Speaker 1: can also allow you to take advantage of a particular opportunity.

1085
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:13,200
Speaker 1: You can say, oh, I've got the six months, I've

1086
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:15,839
Speaker 1: got a huge savings buffer. Actually, now is the time,

1087
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:18,719
Speaker 1: perfect time for me to launch my own business. When

1088
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:21,279
Speaker 1: most people would say that seems crazy. Many people would

1089
00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 1: advise against that, but recessions are often the best time

1090
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 1: to start something new. So sure, you can dig when

1091
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 1: other people is agging. It's like Warren Buffe it says,

1092
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:30,560
Speaker 1: be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others

1093
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:33,000
Speaker 1: are fearful. But you can only really do that if

1094
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 1: where you're at with your personal finances isn't a great spot.

1095
00:51:35,520 --> 00:51:38,440
Speaker 2: You got to be in a strong, solid financial position.

1096
00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 1: That's right, man.

1097
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:43,480
Speaker 2: All right, let's quickly introduce here that you and I enjoyed.

1098
00:51:43,600 --> 00:51:47,239
Speaker 2: So again we are continuing a few weeks of you

1099
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 2: and I drinking crap beer, not craft beer. Since you

1100
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:54,480
Speaker 2: and I both failed at our miserably our Daffy campaign,

1101
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 2: which you can still donate to you by the way,

1102
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 2: But you and I both enjoyed. You picked up a Flight,

1103
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:03,320
Speaker 2: which is a beer by Yingling. This is a light beer,

1104
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:05,480
Speaker 2: so oldest in brewing America, right.

1105
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:06,040
Speaker 1: That's right.

1106
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 2: Okay, So what's the difference between Yanling Light and Yingling Flight.

1107
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:12,719
Speaker 1: Well, this is a low carb beard. Also, I was

1108
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:14,279
Speaker 1: gonna say the only thing good about this beer was

1109
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 1: it we didn't really it's not gonna affect our waistline

1110
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 1: because it is low car killow calorie, low carb.

1111
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 2: But yeah, it was pretty pathetic. Ultimately, I don't have

1112
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:25,440
Speaker 2: much to say. No, it's a super light beer, barely

1113
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:29,319
Speaker 2: any flavor. So it was wet That's what I've got.

1114
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 1: That's right. So I can't wait for this to come

1115
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 1: to an end in the near future, but we will

1116
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:33,959
Speaker 1: drink more.

1117
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 2: Crap beers, very non offensive though, like no off flavorstri

1118
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:39,719
Speaker 2: It's kind of like just breathing air.

1119
00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:41,959
Speaker 1: That's how that's how I think about it, akin to water.

1120
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:45,759
Speaker 1: All right, that's gonna do it. For this episode. We'll

1121
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 1: have links to where you can buy Kylo's book, to

1122
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,439
Speaker 1: her site, her newsletter, all that stuff up in the show.

1123
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 1: Notes on our website and how to money dot com.

1124
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:54,799
Speaker 2: That's right, man, So that'll be it until next time.

1125
00:52:55,000 --> 00:53:05,120
Speaker 2: Best friends out and best friends out the be