1 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:16,600 Speaker 1: What's up, guys, Happy Thursday. 2 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:19,439 Speaker 2: Welcome into another episode of the Daily Juice podcast with 3 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 2: me and Matt Parotz. You guys can follow me across 4 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 2: all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we're back. 5 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: After a flat day, we go two and two. 6 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 2: The only college basketball bets I have gotten right here 7 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 2: on the Daily Juice are both involving the Creighton Blue. 8 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: Jays, which is not a surprise. 9 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 2: Okay, it's the program I know the best and I'm 10 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 2: the closest to It was the right play because they 11 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 2: scored twenty eight points in the second half. They didn't cover. 12 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 2: They only scored seventy five points and the second half. 13 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 2: I was worried about the second half and it did 14 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 2: not go well for the Jays. They did win, but 15 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 2: move boy, so team total, they scored forty seven points 16 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 2: in the first half. 17 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: We got that right. 18 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 2: We got the Bruins and the Ducks that game again 19 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 2: and flew over first period three goals. That was a 20 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 2: good bet of the day. The over for CMU and 21 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 2: k State did not come in. That fell forty four 22 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 2: too long. That first drive for Central Michigan took up 23 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 2: the entire first quarter. That kind of killed the ability 24 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 2: for an extra possession there to have that game go over, 25 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 2: and then Yukon was trailing at the break, they lose 26 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 2: the game outright to Arizona. Arizona's got the best resume 27 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 2: of anybody in college basketball right now, and I'm done 28 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 2: fading Arizona. I mean, they are just really, really good 29 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 2: right now. The peat kid is tremendous. They're tough, they rebound, 30 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 2: they're well coached, and they walked into Yukon and snapped 31 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 2: their long non conference home winning streak tonight with a big, 32 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 2: big win for Arizona. So I'm done Finn the Wildcats. 33 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 2: They right now they look like the best team in America. Now, 34 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 2: it's early, it's November, but that was pretty impressive. So 35 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 2: two and two night for us. We go down one 36 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 2: point two units on the day. Now, couple things, so 37 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 2: today being a Thursday, it's obviously an NFL day for us, 38 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 2: and we're obviously going to get into a bunch of 39 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 2: things football related with the Bills on the road here tonight. 40 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 2: And look, Buffalo is going to be I think by 41 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 2: the time this game kicks off, it's probably gonna be 42 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 2: somewhere around seven. I mean, right now, that number is 43 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 2: six or six and a half for the Bills on 44 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:32,839 Speaker 2: the road, and I think you're going to see quite 45 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 2: a bit of money come in on Buffalo late. And 46 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 2: I don't think that's really the wrong the wrong play 47 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 2: to come in on Buffalo, but I think you are 48 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 2: going to have to take a look at what's happening 49 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:47,679 Speaker 2: here for this game on Thursday. And if you are 50 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 2: interested in taking a look at what's going to happen, 51 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,679 Speaker 2: you guys can go to our friends at hard Rock 52 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 2: Bed to see what they've got available. They are the 53 00:02:55,720 --> 00:03:00,120 Speaker 2: presenting sponsor of this podcast. It is Thursday night. So 54 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:02,919 Speaker 2: you have football, you have college football, you have the NBA, 55 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 2: you have the NHL. 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Download 70 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 2: the hard rock Bet app and make your first deposit 71 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 2: to day. 72 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 3: Payable and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by 73 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 3: the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered by the 74 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 3: Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC. 75 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 1: In other states. 76 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 3: Must be twenty one and physically president Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, 77 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, ten your Virginia to play. Terms and 78 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 3: conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight 79 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 3: eight eight Admit it in Indiana. If you are somebody 80 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 3: you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 81 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 3: one eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called 82 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 3: one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 83 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 2: Okay, let's talk about what to do with this game. 84 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 2: So the Bills and the Texans Buffalo the numbers are 85 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:25,719 Speaker 2: pretty impressive. Okay, if you look at just the overall 86 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 2: trends for the Bills in this game, namely Josh Allen. 87 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,599 Speaker 2: When Josh Allen faces a top defense, one that's allowing 88 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 2: less than twenty points per game, it's happened twenty nine time. 89 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 2: This will be the thirtieth time in his career this 90 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 2: will happen. Josh Allen is twenty four and five straight up, 91 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 2: twenty three to five and one against the number, and 92 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 2: when your opponent is over five hundred straight up, he's 93 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 2: seventeen to four and one against the spread. 94 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:51,600 Speaker 1: I don't want to play around with the number here. 95 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 2: I just went and found six and I pulled it 96 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 2: down to the Bills pick. 97 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 1: So what do we do with the total? 98 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 2: We're going to go from forty five three and a 99 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 2: half up to forty nine and a half. These two 100 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,840 Speaker 2: teams played last year in Houston. He was twenty three 101 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 2: to twenty. 102 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 1: CJ. Stroud played in that game. This will not be 103 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:10,840 Speaker 1: c J. Stroud. 104 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,159 Speaker 2: This will be Davis Mills starting again at quarterback for 105 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 2: the Houston Texans. But historically speaking, over the last nine matchups, 106 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:25,359 Speaker 2: the under is seven and two for Houston and Buffalo 107 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 2: this year, the Texans are are six three and one 108 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 2: to the under and the. 109 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: Bills are five and five, so they're flat. 110 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 2: I just don't think with Davis Mills, we're gonna see 111 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 2: a whole lot of offense here. I mean, last week 112 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:43,159 Speaker 2: you saw sixteen points being scored by the Texans. The 113 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 2: week prior, they scored thirty six up against Jacksonville. 114 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 1: That was that crazy ending. 115 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:51,280 Speaker 2: And think it had more to do with you Jacksonville 116 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 2: and the way they played and let up in the 117 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 2: fourth quarter. And frankly, twenty nine points on that Texans 118 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 2: defense is pretty rare for what they normally give up. 119 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,359 Speaker 2: I don't think the Bills are going to score thirty tonight. 120 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 2: I think they're going to be held somewhere in the twenties. 121 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 2: And I don't think we're gonna see a whole lot 122 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 2: of points being scored by the Houston Texans. It's Thursday night, 123 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:14,479 Speaker 2: it's a short week oftentimes that can be tough. The 124 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 2: Bills have also dropped five straight games outright in Houston. Okay, 125 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 2: the last time they won was in two thousand and six. 126 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 2: Josh Allen has started three of the matchups, and the 127 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 2: Bills have scored twenty points or fewer in every single 128 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 2: one of them. So if you want to play just 129 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 2: straight under, you can do that. But forty three and 130 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,599 Speaker 2: a half is pretty darn low. Okay, So this is 131 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 2: the issue. And Houston is twenty two to ten to 132 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 2: the under at home in games in which CJ. Stroud 133 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 2: does not start. Okay, So like that's the Houston is 134 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 2: an under team. They're zero and two straight up and 135 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 2: oh and two against the spread where they're at home. 136 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 2: As a team team here, I just think this is 137 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 2: another game in which we go under. But I think 138 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:06,479 Speaker 2: we tease up to forty nine and a half to 139 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 2: be safe and take the Bills down to a pick. 140 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 2: Bills win the game, and we see a under forty 141 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 2: nine and a half from minus one twenty five. If 142 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 2: you just strictly want to bet the game as the under, 143 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 2: I think you can just straight up bet the under 144 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 2: on the game today. I think that's a fine play 145 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 2: to make as well. Bills pick under forty nine and 146 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 2: a half. Same game teaser at minus one twenty five. 147 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 2: You may need to all spread and all total this 148 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 2: game to get to the minus one twenty five at 149 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 2: your particular book, but shop around and find the best 150 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 2: value there. But we're going with the Bills to win 151 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 2: the game, and we're taking a under forty nine and 152 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 2: a half here for a same game teaser. We've not 153 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 2: done one of these in a while, but I think 154 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 2: it's the best way to approach this game, just because 155 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 2: the Bills have performed so poorly. If they cover, it'll 156 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 2: be somewhat of a surprise given their inability to move 157 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 2: the football on the road at Houston with this defense 158 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 2: being very, very good. Again, the Bills are zero to 159 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 2: five in their last five games at Houston. Now, there 160 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 2: is one prop bet that the prop bet cheat sheet likes, 161 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 2: and it's going to the Texans Christian Kirk, who is 162 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: right now being projected to have two catches on the 163 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 2: game by the prop bet cheat sheet, a sixty three 164 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:22,239 Speaker 2: percent cover probability, a plus twenty one expected value play 165 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 2: in a five star bet. Now, this is the only 166 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 2: five star bet as at this point in the time 167 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 2: of taping. This is the only five star bet that 168 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 2: the bet cheat sheet likes. Now as we get to 169 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 2: the day of there may be other bets to pop up, 170 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 2: and we'll see how Christian Kirk's numbers change. If you 171 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 2: guys wake up and the prop bet cheat sheet doesn't 172 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:41,199 Speaker 2: like this, It's okay, I've already bet it because I 173 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 2: think it's possible that Christian Kirk gets involved. He has 174 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 2: only had one catch the last two games, but he 175 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 2: was targeted four times in the game against Tennessee, and 176 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 2: I think they'll look to target him again here in 177 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,320 Speaker 2: the screen game with Davis Mills. So I think Christian 178 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 2: Kirk has a decent game. He had four catches against 179 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 2: deb and he had four catches against Baltimore, and now 180 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:06,960 Speaker 2: that was with CD Stroud, but he was utilized before 181 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 2: the injury. I think they'll look to get him back 182 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 2: involved again. He was targeted four times last week, three 183 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 2: times the week before. He makes two of the catches 184 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 2: bubble screens and quick passes and slants. He makes two 185 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 2: catches and we go over. Prop pet cheat sheet likes 186 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 2: this as a five star play and it's cheap. It's 187 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 2: only minus one oh eight. I'm gonna jump in. I'm 188 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 2: gonna trail it. Let's go here with the prop pet 189 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,199 Speaker 2: cheat sheet and we're gonna go on over one and 190 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 2: a half receptions for Christian Kirk at minus one oh 191 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 2: eight for one point zero eight units. One more bet 192 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 2: for today and then I'll give you our first play 193 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 2: coming up for Sunday here because I want the number. 194 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 2: The number is important to me because I think the 195 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 2: number is going to move. Let's talk hockey Dallas and Vancouver. 196 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:57,440 Speaker 2: The total is six. It's a little juicy minus one 197 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 2: twenty from a total perspective, but it's Dallas and Vancouver. 198 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 2: We've been betting Vancouver over because Vancouver is sixteen to 199 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 2: four and one this year to the over. Now the 200 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 2: Maple leafs that trend has sort of shifted. But Vancouver 201 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:15,199 Speaker 2: is ten and zero to the over in their last 202 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 2: ten games, where we're just gonna bet this until we lose. Like, 203 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 2: I just think you have to keep on playing Vancouver 204 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 2: overs when it's six. In particular, Vancouver's at home. Vancouver 205 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 2: at home is eight and one over there over the 206 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 2: nine games they've played at home this season, eight and one. 207 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 2: They're playing Dallas. Now, Dallas hasn't been a great over team, 208 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 2: but they're five and four on the road to the 209 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 2: over over the last five games for Dallas, they're three 210 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:47,720 Speaker 2: and two to the over. Again, this does not matter 211 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 2: as to who's playing in net. These games have just 212 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 2: been very high scoring. Again, if you want to come 213 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,840 Speaker 2: in and take a look at, you know, betting on 214 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 2: a gift goal in the first ten minutes, If you 215 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,439 Speaker 2: want to bet on a first period over, you can 216 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 2: do that as well. Vancouver has been somewhat profitable. A 217 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:09,079 Speaker 2: little surprising how they've not been as profitable as you 218 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 2: would think given how many times their games have gone over. 219 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:16,479 Speaker 2: But Vancouver on the year for a gift is now, 220 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 2: let's see, whereas Vancouver, it's not where you'd expect it 221 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:23,959 Speaker 2: to be. Dallas is eleven and eighteen eleven out of 222 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:27,440 Speaker 2: eighteen games, sixty one point one percent to a gift 223 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 2: goal in the first ten minutes. Vancouver is fifty percent. 224 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 2: Ten of twenty. They are nine of twenty for a 225 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 2: first period over. The difference is Vancouver for a second 226 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 2: period over. Fourteen of their twenty games have gone to 227 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,319 Speaker 2: a second period over. That's seventy percent of the time. 228 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,439 Speaker 2: And Vancouver has been just again, they've been giving up 229 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 2: goals a ton here, scoring a bunch in the first 230 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 2: period and giving up a bunch of goals in the 231 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 2: first period, but also just overall, they've scored fourteen goals 232 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 2: in the first period so far, they've given up eighteen 233 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 2: goals in the first period. They've scored twenty two goals 234 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 2: in the second period, while Vancouver has given up eighteen 235 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 2: goals in the second period and then third period, they've 236 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 2: given up a bunch of goals as well, thirty one 237 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:16,599 Speaker 2: third period goals. That is number one in the NHL. 238 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,439 Speaker 2: So that's how these games are really going over. You 239 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 2: don't need to bet the first period the gift. You 240 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 2: don't want to a first period over, I haven't. Let's 241 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 2: just bet the game over here for the Vancouver Canucks 242 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 2: and the Dallas Stars. We're going over six for one 243 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,679 Speaker 2: point two units. Now, there is a bet I want 244 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 2: to give you guys here on a Thursday for Sunday. 245 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 2: I want Kansas City minus three Circa Sports. If you 246 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:46,439 Speaker 2: have Circa in your state, you can find three minus 247 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 2: one twenty for the Chiefs at home against the Colts. 248 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:51,200 Speaker 1: Okay. 249 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 2: So here's the rationale for this bet and why I'm 250 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 2: betting it now and why I want three. The KSE 251 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:02,320 Speaker 2: Chiefs have to win this game. What's interesting is that 252 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes has not played well against Indianapolis in his career. 253 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 2: He's one in two straight up in one and two 254 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 2: against the number. Against the Colts, he's lost their last 255 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 2: two games, both straight up and against the spread, but 256 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 2: they came back in twenty twenty two and twenty nineteen. Okay, 257 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 2: of the teams in the NFL, the only ones that 258 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes is under five hundred Indianapolis and Philadelphia. 259 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: That's it. 260 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 2: The Colts are off of a bye. Nine teams have 261 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 2: had a bye week before facing the Chiefs and Mahomes. 262 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:37,559 Speaker 2: Those teams are six and three against the number. You 263 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 2: would expect it right extra time to prepare. They've covered 264 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 2: by over five points. When those teams are underdogs against 265 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 2: Kansas City, they are six and one against the spread, 266 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 2: the only loss coming from the forty nine ers in 267 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 2: the Super Bowl back in twenty twenty. To give you 268 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:57,560 Speaker 2: an idea here, Okay, the Chiefs in one score games 269 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 2: have been awful after being a maze last year. The 270 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 2: tide is totally changed. As you would expect. They are 271 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 2: zero to five straight up in one score games. 272 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 1: However, However, when you. 273 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 2: Look at teams that are that are at home who 274 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 2: are five and five, they're at five hundred when they're 275 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 2: taking on a team that is by far worse schedule wise, 276 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 2: and they're winning eighty percent of their games. From week 277 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 2: eleven on. It's happened fourteen times in the NFL. The 278 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 2: teams are fourteen to oh straight up and twelve oh 279 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 2: to two against the number it's happened fifteen times. This 280 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 2: will be the fifteenth time since nineteen ninety. They have 281 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 2: to win this game. You could say, Matt, they win 282 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 2: the game by one or two. Okay, maybe I'd be 283 00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 2: surprised if the Chiefs. 284 00:14:58,440 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: Win this game. 285 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 2: I don't think it's one score. I think Case makes 286 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 2: Daniel Jones play that he has played earlier this month 287 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 2: or less. I guess it was late last month in 288 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 2: which he turned the Bowl over six times. I think 289 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 2: that could happen here against the Chiefs. They have no choice. 290 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 2: Case has no choice. They are over three games back 291 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 2: of Denver already. Denver's nine to two, Casey is five 292 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 2: and five if they lose this game. They're playing on 293 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 2: the road at Dallas on Thanksgiving, a short week. They 294 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 2: play in a prime time all eyes on them spot 295 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 2: on the road, Jerry's World against a really good offense 296 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 2: and a revamped defense for the Dallas Cowboys, and Dallas 297 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 2: will need the game just as much as Kansas City. 298 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 2: If they're five and six going into that game, they 299 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 2: could be five and seven and it's over for the 300 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 2: case Chiefs. They will miss the playoffs if they go 301 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 2: five and seven. See them losing to the Colts in 302 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 2: this scenario, given what is on the docket here for 303 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 2: the Casey Chiefs, looking at their schedule and how difficult 304 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 2: their schedule is going to be home for the Colts, 305 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 2: at the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, Texans at home on Sunday 306 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 2: Night football. Not easy, the Chargers at home. They go 307 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 2: at the Titans for a break, and then the Broncos 308 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 2: on Christmas Day and at the Raiders to end the season. 309 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 2: They could lose to the Colts. They could lose to 310 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 2: the Cowboys. They could lose to the Texans. They could 311 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 2: lose to the Chargers. They could lose to the Broncos. 312 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 2: All possible case has no margin for any type of loss. 313 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 1: At home. 314 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 2: They have to beat the Colts, beat the Texans, beat 315 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 2: the Chargers, beat the Broncos. They can lose the game 316 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 2: against the Cowboys. There's your sixth loss, okay, and maybe 317 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 2: they got a shot. You beat the Raiders there and 318 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 2: they wind up with an eleven and six record, maybe 319 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 2: a ten and seven record that probably gets you into 320 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 2: the playoffs, but that's a big probably maybe get you 321 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 2: into the postseason. As of right now, as it stands, 322 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 2: KSE is not in the postseason. Jacksonville at six and 323 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 2: four is in. They have a one game lead. The 324 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,640 Speaker 2: Chargers are seven and four. They have a two game lead, 325 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 2: one game in the lost columnber so a one and 326 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:29,919 Speaker 2: a half game lead for the Chargers. K C cannot 327 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:35,159 Speaker 2: afford any type of losses here, in particular because the 328 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 2: Ravens could wind up winning the division, Steelers could still 329 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,440 Speaker 2: be a wildcard team, the Patriots can win the division, 330 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 2: the Bills going up being a wildcard team, that Broncos 331 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 2: can win the division, the Chargers going up being a 332 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 2: wildcard team. This is getting crowded for Kansas City KC 333 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 2: minus three for one point two units and minus one twenty. 334 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,199 Speaker 1: I want the three, not the hook. I want the three. 335 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:06,640 Speaker 2: So bets for today on Thursday, same game teaser Bill's 336 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 2: pick under forty nine and a half and minus one 337 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,200 Speaker 2: twenty five, Christian Kirk over one and a half receptions 338 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 2: and minus one oh eight, Dallas and Vancouver over six 339 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 2: and minus one twenty and for Sunday our first bet 340 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 2: CAC minus three for one point two units coming up 341 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 2: against the Colts. 342 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perolt. 343 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 2: You guys can follow me across all my socials if 344 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 2: you want at Sports Doc Matt. 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