1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:09,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. China is not able 2 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: or winning to replace the US as the underwriter of globalization. 3 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: So we are to quote my Prime Minister in US 4 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: interacting them a state of messy transition. Cromwell world in 5 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 1: which there was an underwriter an enforcer, and then underwriter 6 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 1: and enforcer has now decided to become disruptor in chief 7 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:32,200 Speaker 1: for domestic political reasons. 8 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 2: I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg, 9 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 2: and this is Trumpnomics, the podcast that looks at the 10 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,839 Speaker 2: economic world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped the 11 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 2: global economy and modern earth is going to happen next 12 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 2: This week, I'm sharing a conversation with Singapore's top diplomat, 13 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 2: Vivian Balakrishnan. If we look back at the global economy 14 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,039 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five, much of what we might have 15 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 2: expected from a second Trump term has happened. And then 16 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 2: some a rupture in the Western Alliance, are withdrawal or 17 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 2: stepping back from multilateral decision making fora like the G 18 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 2: twenty and the cop A more aggressive stance towards enemies 19 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 2: in America's backyard. It's all there, but one thing we 20 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 2: haven't seen is a global trade war. Though the US, 21 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 2: we know, has imposed hefty tariffs on all of its 22 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 2: trading partners, those countries, with the notable exception of China, 23 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 2: have not fought back. Instead, in effect, they've said, we 24 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 2: don't like this, but we're darn if we're going to 25 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 2: make it worse. The US might wish to raise high 26 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 2: tariff walls around its economy, rest of US are going 27 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 2: to keep on opening up and if possible, do even 28 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 2: more trade amongst ourselves. That is a big good news 29 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 2: story from this year that we shouldn't forget, and I 30 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 2: was reminded of again last week at the Bloomberg New 31 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 2: Economy Forum in Singapore, where you sit looking out at 32 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 2: the mass of container ships in the Singapore Strait. About 33 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 2: twenty five percent or so of global exports and imports 34 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 2: passes through that crucial shipping corridor, giving small but super 35 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 2: successful Singapore a very large stake in sustaining a global 36 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:22,640 Speaker 2: trading system and incidentally a bird's eye view of everything 37 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 2: happening in Asia. This country also has a knack of 38 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 2: producing rather aerodyite public servants, so at the start of 39 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 2: the forum on November nineteenth, I sat down with one 40 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 2: of them, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, to talk about the 41 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 2: meaning of the recent trade deal between the US and China, 42 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 2: what the shifting global landscape means for Asia. He was 43 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 2: at both the Asian and APEX summits where some of 44 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 2: those deals were done, and I began by asking him 45 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 2: whether the new trade partnerships that Singapore and others were 46 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 2: hoping to build without the US could really reshape the 47 00:02:56,639 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 2: future of global trade. 48 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: Well, there's a quote attributed to Ernest Hemingway, how did 49 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: you go bankrupt? It says two ways, gradually and then suddenly. 50 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 1: So hold that thought in mind. This year has been 51 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 1: the year of sudden changes, but actually the gradual changes. 52 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: The pressure has been building up for a long time. 53 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 1: The first point I wanted to leave with you is 54 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: the role of the United States for the last eight decades. Actually, 55 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: it is historically unprecedented. The ultimate winner of the Second 56 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: World War, forty percent of global GDP, that was his 57 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 1: share of global GDP, decided, instead of conquering and eliminating 58 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:50,680 Speaker 1: the Vanquish, rebuilt Germany Europe through the Marshall Plan, and 59 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 1: it set really a rules based globalization with economic integration 60 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: at the core. And this is highly, highly unusual and unprecedented. 61 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: So that's the first point. It is about the US. 62 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: Second point is that actually the pressures on the US 63 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: to give up on this has been building up for 64 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: a long time. And what I mean, if you think 65 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,279 Speaker 1: about it, what the US did for eight decades was 66 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 1: to provide first the market, second technology, third capital, and 67 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: rules based economic integration. The first beneficiary of it, apart 68 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: from Europe, was Japan, and then you had the Asian 69 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 1: tigers Hong Kong career to Singapore and then the rest 70 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 1: of Southeast Asia. But the real winner of rules based 71 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: free trade has actually been China. And the US is 72 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:54,280 Speaker 1: only two hundred and forty nine years. It has never 73 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 1: met a peer competitor with the scale, the ability, and 74 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 1: the willingness to reorder the world in a way that's 75 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 1: favorable to it. 76 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 3: But the point is that China, if you. 77 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 1: Look at this per capita GDP, it's still a middle 78 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 1: income country. And China is not able or willing to 79 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 1: replace the US as the underwriter of globalization. So we are, 80 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: to quote my Prime Minister, in an interregnum, a state 81 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: of messy transition from a world in which there was 82 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: an underwriter an enforcer, and that underwriter and enforcer has 83 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 1: now decided to become disruptor in chief for domestic political 84 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:44,279 Speaker 1: reasons because after eight decades of providing capital, technology, and markets, 85 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,359 Speaker 1: what the middle class in America has seen is the 86 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: industrialization russ belts, hopelessness and middle income stagnation. And guess 87 00:05:55,839 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: what elections are local. So it is a completely legitimate 88 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 1: question for the American water to say, wait a minute, 89 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 1: why should we underwrite in blood and treasure, this system 90 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 1: which seems to have profited the rest of the world 91 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 1: and especially a big peer competitor, And I think we 92 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 1: need to pull back. So you see my point about 93 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 1: gradually and then suddenly you know it's like an iceberg 94 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 1: or a continental ice shelf falling. But actually the climate 95 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 1: warming was predated that. So my point is what we're 96 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 1: witnessing today is not just a change of whether this 97 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:40,839 Speaker 1: is real climate change, dual political climate change. 98 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 3: So that's contact setting. 99 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 2: I think it's historically unprecedented also to have a single 100 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 2: global superpower almost voluntarily step back from a lot of 101 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 2: its obligations, not be forced to do so, not lose 102 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 2: a war, but just decide I don't want to do 103 00:06:58,000 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 2: this anymore. 104 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 1: Yes, an unusual to have such a benige hegemon in 105 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:06,040 Speaker 1: the first place, and for us now to say, where. 106 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 3: Did that hagamon go? 107 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 1: I'm saying, if you take a longer view of history 108 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 1: in jee politics, the point is this was a unique period. 109 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 1: I've tried to go back in it. I can't find 110 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 1: another period in history when we had such a benine 111 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: hegamon when you just. 112 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 2: Think back even just a few years ago, and then 113 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 2: we would have been on this stage talking about decoupling. Yes, 114 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 2: and that may be the climactic change, to distinguish from 115 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 2: the change in the weather, as you've said. But the 116 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 2: Biden administration, I think for many of it, of the 117 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 2: US allies, it felt that the US was asking countries 118 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 2: to choose between the US and China, and that was 119 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 2: obviously challenging. Nowhere more than here, President Trump has had 120 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 2: a much many people would say, less consistent, certainly more freewheeling, 121 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 2: unilateralist approach. It feels a little bit like the world 122 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 2: is less divided between US and China now and more 123 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 2: the US and the rest of the world just left 124 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 2: in a mess. Well, is that easier or harder for well. 125 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 1: First of all, the American ambassador is here, so I'm 126 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: not here to be an apologist. But I would say 127 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 1: President Trump as a person in fact, has been uniquely 128 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: consistent for decades. 129 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 3: What do I mean? 130 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 1: Watch the interview with Operah Winfrey back in nineteen eighty eight, 131 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 1: his views on war, anti war, his views on free trade. 132 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 1: It's an avenue for America to be taken advantage of 133 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: his views on business in a main street real estate 134 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 1: way as opposed to Wall Street and financial engineering. 135 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 3: His views on immigration actually have been remarkedably. 136 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:49,599 Speaker 1: Consistent, and I think people don't give enough marks for 137 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 1: that point. So he is consistent. It's just that his 138 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 1: methodology his presentation is somewhat novel, and people get react 139 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,199 Speaker 1: to that. But my point is American policy and the 140 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: President Trump in fact is reflecting long held, deep convictions. 141 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 2: I think you are right. I guess the exception to that, 142 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 2: and I'm interested in whether you read it the same 143 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:14,640 Speaker 2: way you've been at the recent meetings with your Prime 144 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 2: Minister in Malaysia and Korea, where we did see this 145 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 2: deals between the US and China. Yes, but it will 146 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 2: not have been lost on many of the people around 147 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 2: the table. That China was ending up with a relatively 148 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 2: better position than many of the other countries in the 149 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 2: region who had thought that they were going to be 150 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 2: an alternative to China. For US manufacturers, well, that feels 151 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 2: a little inconsistent with wanting to wean American industry off 152 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 2: Chinese manufacers. 153 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 1: Well, again, I would distinguish between strategic and tactical. I 154 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 1: think what we've witnessed so far is the tactical pause. 155 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: The fundamental problem in the US and China is an 156 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 1: almost complete lack of strategic trust, and that means each 157 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 1: side has to assume the worst of each other, and 158 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:06,959 Speaker 1: even if you're taking precautions, it's viewed as escalatory. Both 159 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:10,959 Speaker 1: sides have identified pain points, and I think what you've 160 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 1: seen so far is not a strategic realignment or southern 161 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,679 Speaker 1: dawn of strategic trust, is that both sides have decided 162 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: they need time, they need a tactical pause whilst you 163 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: get on with the real business. And the point about 164 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: decoupling is worth unpacking because what we are witnessing the 165 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 1: world right now is a couple of phenomena. Number One, 166 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 1: you've witnessed the weaponization of everything, weaponization of the dollar, 167 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 1: weaponization of finance, weaponization of critical minerals, global supply choins. 168 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 1: Interdependency used to be a good thing. Now it's a vulnerability. 169 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: But my point about weaponization of everything, you know, Newton's 170 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 1: third law applies in diplomacy too. For every action, there's 171 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: an equal and opposite reaction. So the weaponization where everything 172 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 1: has led to an erosion of trust, has led to 173 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: a need to assume the worst and to prepare for it. 174 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 1: And in the absence of trust, it's very hard to 175 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 1: actually have strategic alignments. So that's first part. What you're 176 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 1: witnessing now is a tactical pause. The strategic problem remains. 177 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: The next aspect of what's going on now is the 178 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: fracturing of supply chains. And it's not an ideological point, 179 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 1: but I think especially during COVID, you found it. 180 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 3: Even simple things like making. 181 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: A mask, which it's not rocket science, but the essential 182 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 1: components were not within reach and everyone was panicking and 183 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: you didn't have access to it. So the fracturing of 184 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 1: supply chains in the name of national security and in 185 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: search of resilience actually means a world which hitherto has 186 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 1: been based on efficiency, is now building supply chains on 187 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: a basis of near ding on shoring French showing. Economically, 188 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: what that must mean is some inflation because you're no 189 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:12,280 Speaker 1: longer choosing the cheapest and the best, most efficient, You're 190 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:16,080 Speaker 1: now having other considerations. So watch that a bottom inflation. 191 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:21,560 Speaker 1: The third point is the global comments. I've been involved 192 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 1: in this game long enough, so I'll give you an example, 193 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 1: the Paris Climate Change Agreement. The only reason that got 194 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: done is because America and China are on the same side, 195 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,840 Speaker 1: and we're able to drag the rest of us an 196 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 1: imperfect but important agreement. Today if the two main players 197 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: are not in the same room, and it goes further 198 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 1: than that. 199 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 3: In fact, it's not just a. 200 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:49,199 Speaker 1: Matter of picking out your marbles and leaving the game, 201 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 1: but you're actually disrupting the game. And my worry is 202 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 1: that we're going to be unable to deal with the 203 00:12:56,240 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: global comments. It means climate change, pandemic, the challenges from AI. 204 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: We won't be able to respond adequately to it because 205 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:13,079 Speaker 1: the two key players either are disrupting actively or are 206 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 1: spoiling for a fight and are certainly not willing to 207 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 1: restrain themselves with multilateral rules imposed by lil Putin countries 208 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:26,079 Speaker 1: begins medium and small elsewhere. 209 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 3: I hope that's not too depressing. 210 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:46,319 Speaker 2: It just seems a muddier picture than the decoupling team US. 211 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 3: It's resty. 212 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 2: But as your concern, the long term trend, yes, I 213 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 2: mean someone has likened it to a couple saying we're 214 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 2: going to divorce in ten years, but we have to 215 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 2: live together before then. You still need. Long term trend 216 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 2: is dec coupling between the US and China. 217 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: I think without the strategic trusts, the logic for decoupling, 218 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: at least partially in the name of national security and 219 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 1: anxiety over competitiveness, will continue to play out. 220 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 3: And that's that's what we're witnessing. 221 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 1: But if I can come back to where you started 222 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: with a piece of good news, I said, why hasn't 223 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 1: the rest of the world retaliated? I think a couple 224 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 1: of reasons. Number One, they're a far bigger elephant or 225 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: ego than the rest of us. So what's the point 226 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 1: of retaliating when in fract the little guy will be 227 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 1: the ultimate loser. So that's the first thing. Second, and 228 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 1: I'm coming to your good news. If you leave aside 229 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 1: the two big powers, and if you think if you 230 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 1: open a World Atlas and draw a diagonal Europe, the 231 00:14:56,440 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 1: Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australi in New Zealand, 232 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 1: and then you draw two spokes, one to Northeast Asia 233 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 1: particular Japan Career, and another spoke southwest through Africa and 234 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 1: South America. 235 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 3: Guess what. 236 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 1: In fact, there is still a majority of countries and 237 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: even I would say the majority of global GDP, that 238 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:26,479 Speaker 1: still wants to operate on supply chain efficiencies, on economic integration, 239 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 1: on rules based globalization. The only thing is the enforcer 240 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: in chief is no longer there and there is a 241 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: need therefore to assemble or coalition of the willing. So 242 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: what you're watching now, all that's scurrying around by medium 243 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 1: and small economies is to keep globalization alive, reform what 244 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 1: needs to be reformed, and there's a lot that needs reform, 245 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 1: but to work together in a more collegiate way, knowing 246 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:57,320 Speaker 1: full well that the underwriter, the enforcer, is not going 247 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,120 Speaker 1: to be doing the heavy lifting. So that's where I 248 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 1: think there is a glimmer of hope. And that's why 249 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: you know, my Prime Minister and I've been discovering around 250 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 1: to regional and international conferences and the good news I 251 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 1: agree with you. The majority people in fact want some order, 252 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 1: some stability, and some benefits, economic benefits from working together, 253 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 1: from inter operating, And what we are hoping ultimately is 254 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 1: that when things settle down between the two big bodies, 255 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 1: they will then rediscover the benefits of globalization. 256 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 2: One of the initiatives that you had in the summer 257 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 2: was with the Gulf and the GCC. Do you see 258 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 2: that moving forward? 259 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: Well, if you look earlier this year, we had that 260 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: when we had an RC and some that we included, 261 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 1: the GCC and China in Singapore were members of both 262 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: the CPTPP and our CP which are big mega free 263 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 1: trade deals. We're trying to convince the European Union, who 264 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:03,480 Speaker 1: is also a flexy pro trade pro rules. 265 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 3: Are they going to join? No, I think that's a 266 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:07,120 Speaker 3: bridge too far. 267 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: But can we get a partnership between the European Union 268 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 1: and the CPTPP, especially a CPTPP which is. 269 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,679 Speaker 2: Expanding, You've got to think we need a bit. 270 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 3: I know, I know, In fact, I. 271 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 2: Think that's why everyone talks about it, honestly. 272 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 3: I know. 273 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 1: But if it's strip aside the labels and the names, 274 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:32,120 Speaker 1: I mean, the point is, is there benefit from globalization, 275 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 1: from efficiency, from interoperability, from standards, from peaceful resolution of disputes, 276 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: including trade disputes. The answer is unequivocally yes. But we 277 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,359 Speaker 1: need to do it now and everyone needs to chip in. 278 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: So I think the EU is a natural partner with 279 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 1: the CPTP. So think of the EU and the Pacific. 280 00:17:55,440 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 1: Can we construct something that cuts a diagonal across go 281 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 1: and it's Africa keen on this. I think they are 282 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 1: South America. I mean, you may be surprised, even little Singapore. 283 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:14,120 Speaker 1: We've signed free trade deals with Mercasol, which is Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay. 284 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 1: We've even signed a free trade agreement with the Pacific 285 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: Alliance Mexico, Colombia, Chile. So the point is you'll be surprised. 286 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 1: The appetite for economic integration remains, and that's what Singapore 287 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 1: is working now. 288 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 3: Of course, I'll tell you, of course we are biased. 289 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 1: This is Manhattan without upstate New York, or this is 290 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 1: one fifth of Rhode Island without continental United States, or 291 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 1: if you want another uncomfortable analogy, Singapore is just twice 292 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 1: the size of Gaza, but with three times the population. 293 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 1: So we're a tiny place in which our trade volume 294 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,360 Speaker 1: is three times our GDP. So I hope you understand 295 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 1: when we promote free trade, it's lifeblood. It's not a 296 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 1: negotiating point, right, And when we say rules are better 297 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:07,360 Speaker 1: than the alternative, because the alternative is right, it might 298 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: be it's beautiful and small. It's irrelevant. So I will 299 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 1: confess this is a self interested argument. 300 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 2: But you've talked about importance of rules, but also a 301 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:20,360 Speaker 2: country is working together. 302 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:21,719 Speaker 3: Yes, absolutely, not enforced. 303 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 2: Should the Southeast Asian economies, even the Asian countries have 304 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 2: worked together more in negotiating these trade deals with the US. 305 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 2: You talk, No, I don't. I don't buy nactual arm 306 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 2: wrestling you describe. 307 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,959 Speaker 1: Yes, No, I don't think that was necessary, not certainly, 308 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 1: not at this stage. I mean, if you look at 309 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 1: Asian as a horse, you know the terris range from 310 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 1: ten percent, nineteen percent, maybe twenty percent, and those. 311 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 3: Numbers keep changing. 312 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: Anyway, my point is, don't overreact to the headline of 313 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 1: after Day. 314 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 3: Understand what's going on. 315 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:59,720 Speaker 1: So if you now bring your zoom lens to Arcian, 316 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 1: have we systematically brought down our trade barriers non tariff barriers? 317 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 3: Is RCN fulfilling its mission? 318 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:11,479 Speaker 1: Of becoming a single production zone, a single investment zone. 319 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 1: Has there been economic growth in URSA? What are the 320 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: prospects of RCN in the next two decades. We think 321 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 1: we can double our combined GDP. If you add up 322 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 1: the combined GDP of RCN, which by the way, has 323 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 1: a population slightly larger than the EU, we're about number five. 324 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 3: And because half of population is. 325 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,199 Speaker 1: Below the age of thirty five and our middle class 326 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:38,200 Speaker 1: is growing, the long term prospects are right. So long 327 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 1: as we don't overreact, we don't do stuff that actually 328 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 1: boomer ranks back on us. And we just look at 329 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 1: what we did this year. We upgraded the RCAN agreement 330 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,879 Speaker 1: on trading goods within r CM, we upgraded the rc 331 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 1: and China Free Trade Agreement, and we're still looking at 332 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,359 Speaker 1: building more more bridges across the world. So my point 333 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:03,199 Speaker 1: is that in fact, Southeast Asia is a zone of 334 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 1: hope and growth. 335 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 3: The key thing is to focus on. 336 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 1: The long term. And what does long term mean? It 337 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,600 Speaker 1: means technology. Bearing in mind that we've got three technological 338 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 1: revolutions going on in real time simultaneously, AI, biotech, renewable energy, 339 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 1: and we're focusing on building up the infrastructure for that. 340 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:30,160 Speaker 1: With focusing on educating a workforce, work creaty for that 341 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,880 Speaker 1: kind of work, the world of AI and robotics, and 342 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:37,400 Speaker 1: we're focusing on integrating, we can still increase our intrascient 343 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:42,879 Speaker 1: trades significantly. And what about Asian Africa, Asian South America. 344 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 1: You know, it's some people call it South South. I 345 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 1: don't really like term, but my point is there is 346 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:52,639 Speaker 1: still a majority in favor of this. I would also 347 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:59,920 Speaker 1: point out the CPTPP began as four tiny states Singapore, Bruna, 348 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:05,040 Speaker 1: New Zealand and Chile, and it only became TPP when 349 00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:10,119 Speaker 1: America and Japan came in. Now we knew by the 350 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 1: time Hillary Clinton had to withdraw from her support from 351 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,359 Speaker 1: the TPP, which in fact she had a lot to 352 00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 1: do with starting, that the cause of free trade was 353 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:25,639 Speaker 1: in political problem. And I think all of us in 354 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: this room, who I would say are probably instinctive free traders, 355 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,480 Speaker 1: need to realize that we didn't make the political case 356 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:38,440 Speaker 1: for it. And you have to convince your local electorate 357 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: the jobs and wages and opportunity come from free trade. Otherwise, 358 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 1: if you don't understand the political reality that for every 359 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:53,439 Speaker 1: free trade agreement, they are winners and losers. You need 360 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 1: to put seat belts on. You need to have compensatory mechanisms. 361 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 1: And whilst you don't expect governments to choose winners and 362 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 1: losers at the enterprise level, but governments do need to 363 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:13,119 Speaker 1: be activists infrastructure, education, pro enterprise regulatory environments. 364 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 3: You do need an active government. 365 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:21,680 Speaker 1: But what you don't want is completely state directed capitalism 366 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 1: where you pick winners and lois. So we think that's 367 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:28,160 Speaker 1: ultimately a dead end. So anyway, my point is, watch 368 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,480 Speaker 1: this space. That's why there's still buzz in this part 369 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: of the world. 370 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 2: We're going to run out of time. So I want 371 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 2: to just quickly ask you I started talking about the US. 372 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,880 Speaker 2: I mean you have said obviously trade is the lifeblood 373 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,479 Speaker 2: of Singapore, and you're absolutely at the center of looking this. 374 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 2: The one country that despite all these tariffs and trade 375 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 2: wars by the US, the one country that has managed 376 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:52,399 Speaker 2: to increase its export growth this year's China. See that 377 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 2: country in many ways doubling down on a focus on manufacturing, 378 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:02,119 Speaker 2: on export led growth, when many economists might have said 379 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 2: long term they have to be on a different path. 380 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,880 Speaker 2: How destabilizing is that for this region, especially now they 381 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 2: have a slightly more well. 382 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 1: I think what you're referring to you're being too delicate. 383 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 1: You're referring to over capacity. Actually, the world has had 384 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 1: unsustainable imbalances for some time. If you outsource all manufacturing 385 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:27,680 Speaker 1: to China, you outsource all energy to Russia, and you 386 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 1: outsource security to America, I'm referring to the EU. 387 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 3: That's not a sustainable model. 388 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 1: And if the EU wants sort of strategic autonomy or independence, 389 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 1: it needs to get a grip on manufacturing, on its 390 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 1: industrial capacity, on its defense, and on its energy policies. 391 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 1: And I'm just giving you one example. In the case 392 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:56,760 Speaker 1: of China, it's worth also reflecting because China became the 393 00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 1: manufacturing center well and enjoying economies of skin. And by 394 00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 1: the way, I must say, Chinese workers happened to be 395 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,640 Speaker 1: really hard working and efficient. I don't think you can 396 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:12,640 Speaker 1: follow China for that. But a world in which all 397 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:17,880 Speaker 1: manufacturing is accumulating on one half, trade surpluses are accumulating there, 398 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,520 Speaker 1: but those trade surplus are being recycled it used to 399 00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 1: be recycled. 400 00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 3: Into T bills. 401 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,040 Speaker 1: What it meant is, for a while the Western consumer 402 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:30,760 Speaker 1: enjoy low inflation, low interest rates, high quality. 403 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 3: Goods at affordable rates. 404 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:36,479 Speaker 1: But actually we're consuming beyond what they were producing, and 405 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 1: we should not be surprised that this system based on 406 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 1: the imbalance was not sustainable. Now, if you imagine that 407 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:49,639 Speaker 1: Americas shuts its market to the productive capacity of China 408 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 1: and the EU also follows suit I mean, and think 409 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,480 Speaker 1: of automotives as an example. 410 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,640 Speaker 3: Then the question will be will China be able. 411 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 1: To expand is domestic consumption to match its capacity or 412 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 1: will it still try to export its way? And if 413 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 1: it does, where will it export to? 414 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 2: But that is what they do, right. 415 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:14,160 Speaker 3: No, I think. 416 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 1: But I'm saying, let's, without being pejorative or making value judgments, 417 00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 1: just ask yourself, do you need domestic changes to the 418 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 1: economic structure of China? 419 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 3: I think we do. 420 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:31,920 Speaker 1: What does Southeast Asia, Africa and South America? 421 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,080 Speaker 3: One do we need infrastructure? We do? 422 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,959 Speaker 1: Is the productive capacity of China for the development of 423 00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:44,960 Speaker 1: that infrastructure, particularly green energy, AI and even biotech, which, 424 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 1: by the way, speaking as a doctor, the Chinese are 425 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:51,679 Speaker 1: no slouches in that area too. So what I'm saying 426 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:55,439 Speaker 1: is watch this space. I am sure adjustments will occur 427 00:26:55,560 --> 00:27:00,560 Speaker 1: both domestically and across borders. And across loads, and the 428 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 1: opportunity will be to try to catch these waves, catch 429 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 1: these new tides and wins so that we maximize opportunities 430 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: for the rest of us. So, don't you know, I'll 431 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,160 Speaker 1: come back to the hopeful note in which you started. 432 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,160 Speaker 1: Not all of us have lost our heads and reacted 433 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:23,879 Speaker 1: in panic or even acted on sense of retribution. But 434 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 1: we've tried to take a longer term view of the 435 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:31,640 Speaker 1: imbalances and of the trends, and to seek opportunities in 436 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 1: these interact names. 437 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 3: Well, I think that's the basis of ourbitrage. 438 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:37,920 Speaker 2: For sixty years, things been fairly good at now. 439 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,399 Speaker 1: Now, but sixty years is you know, in Asia, sixty 440 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 1: years it's far too early to tell, So we never 441 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,160 Speaker 1: take our survival for granted. 442 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,639 Speaker 2: Documentarish thank you so much for joining us and for 443 00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 2: starting ourself on a hopeful footing. 444 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 1: I hope, so, so don't lose your head, you know, 445 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 1: understand what's going on. 446 00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:59,520 Speaker 3: Look for opportunities. There are opportunities. 447 00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,960 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Trumpnomics from Bloomberg. It was hosted 448 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,359 Speaker 2: by me Stephanie Flanders, and I was joined by Singapore's 449 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:19,639 Speaker 2: Foreign Minister, Vivian Balachristian Trumponomics was produced by Samasadi and 450 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:23,200 Speaker 2: Moses and with help from Amy Keen. Sound design was 451 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 2: by Blake Maples and Kelly Gary, and Sage Bowman is 452 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,359 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's head of podcasts. To help Brothers find it, please 453 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,920 Speaker 2: rate and review this podcast highly wherever you listen