1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:12,080 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 3 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Car, play in 4 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 2: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App, Listen on demand 5 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. Let me set the stage 7 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 3: for you. So if you're a political commentator, as if 8 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 3: yesterday you're like cool, I'm like really close to being 9 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 3: on vac Like I'm just going to get through the seat. 10 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 3: The Continuing Resolution is going to happen. The Government's not 11 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 3: going to shut down Friday. I'm going to get to 12 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 3: go and go to a beach and hang out and 13 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 3: have a little drink with umbrellas. And then yesterday after 14 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:45,480 Speaker 3: four o'clock that dream gets dashed because at President Donald 15 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 3: Trump is now elect is now opposing House Speaker Mike 16 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 3: Johnson's plan to avoid that government shutdown instead now calling 17 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 3: for a new approach that includes raising the debt ceiling, 18 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 3: making it very complicated as to what that road is 19 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 3: us as Henry to Trace, managing partner and director of 20 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:05,039 Speaker 3: Economic Policy at Beta Partners, not sipping on her little 21 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 3: umbrella drink, Henrietta. 22 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: Why, Alex I feel very triggered by that entire introduction. 23 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 4: I appreciated all, but that you're exactly right. 24 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: I think that this is an incredibly smart move for 25 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 1: the incoming Trump team. They have no skin in the 26 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:30,039 Speaker 1: game right now, he's not the president. And what's going 27 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: to happen next year, as we've been discussing with clients 28 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 1: for months now, is that they're going to have to 29 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 1: face perpetual risks of government shutdown and then in July 30 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: a debt ceiling negotiation with Democrats. 31 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 4: And let's just think about the numbers here. 32 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty three, seventy one Republicans voted against increasing 33 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 1: the debt ceiling. 34 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 4: There's only ten blue dogs. 35 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 1: Of the Democratic Conference of Moderates who might cross the 36 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,639 Speaker 1: aisle and vote for a debt ceiling hike sometime this week. 37 00:01:56,880 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 1: So basically, the math just does not add up for 38 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: trying to get sixty votes in the Senate and two 39 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 1: hundred and eighteen votes in the House to increase the 40 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: debt ceiling in the next forty eight hours. But it's 41 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: incredibly intelligent of Trump to try to get it out 42 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: of the way because it is going to be a 43 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 1: massive impediment to the Republican agenda in twenty twenty five 44 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 1: if it's not cleared early. 45 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,799 Speaker 5: If there's a government shutdown, won't the blame be placed 46 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 5: upon the Republican Party? And if so, how does that 47 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 5: calculus work? 48 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 4: Right? It always is. 49 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 1: The blame is always always placed on the Republican Conference. 50 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 1: They are the ones who instigate government shutdowns, going as 51 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,080 Speaker 1: far back as Ted Cruz and what was that twenty eleven, 52 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,680 Speaker 1: twenty thirteen. You know, it's playing to the American voter 53 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: that Republicans are to blame. But there's a disproportionate amount 54 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,679 Speaker 1: of Democrats who care about a government shutdown versus Republicans 55 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 1: who don't see it as too much of a big deal. 56 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 4: The optics are obviously atrocious. You're going to. 57 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 1: Send federal employees home during the holidays over Christmas without 58 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: a paycheck in the next two weeks. You're going to 59 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:00,639 Speaker 1: shut all the national parks where Americans are travel at 60 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 1: pretty high rates right now over the holidays. So it's 61 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: definitely not good optics. It makes Congress looks dysfunctional, But 62 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:11,080 Speaker 1: what it's really showing us and the Christmas present for 63 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: investors right now is that this is a precursor of 64 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 1: just how dysfunctional Republicans are going to be next year. 65 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 1: They have not had the votes for government funding bills 66 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: for a decade, and usually it's Democrats to bail them out. 67 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 1: And right now Kee Jefferies and Chuck Schumer are holding 68 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 1: their party together to say, look, this is your mess. 69 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 4: You bail yourself out of this. 70 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:30,679 Speaker 1: Yeah. 71 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 3: I feel like I use that with my daughter sometimes too. 72 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 3: But the dead ceiling issue, right like moving forward the 73 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 3: dead ceialing issue. So Trump won't have to deal with 74 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 3: it in the summer, but instead that we'll come under 75 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 3: Biden's watch. He said to NBC that he'd like to 76 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 3: get rid of the debt ceiling all together. How do 77 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 3: you think that particular part plays out. 78 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that's very expected from Trump. 79 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: He has famously said, let's just see what happens if 80 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: you default, So I think his position on this is 81 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: very clear. It's a nightmare for any present to have 82 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 1: to increase the debt ceiling because you need to negotiate 83 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:06,119 Speaker 1: with the other party. The difference here is that you can, 84 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 1: in fact increase the debt ceiling be a reconciliation. So 85 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 1: if Republicans do not want to negotiate with Democrats. They 86 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 1: all they have to do is include a debt ceiling 87 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:18,359 Speaker 1: hike in the next reconciliation bill, which the Senate Budget 88 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 1: Committee is hoping to mark up as early as the 89 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 1: first week of January. So there is an alternative here 90 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: and Democrats know that. So if Republicans really do want 91 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 1: it off the table, they have a path forward that 92 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: they just need to carry the votes. They just need 93 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: to find two hundred and seventeen, and there have never 94 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: been two hundred and seventeen Republican votes for the debt sealing. 95 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 5: Henrietta, are you surprised that we have heard relatively little, 96 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 5: if anything from the Biden administration. It's President elect Trump 97 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 5: and his representatives taken all the auction in out of 98 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 5: room about this topic. 99 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 4: Absolutely. 100 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 1: I think that's a really important dynamic to all this. 101 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:54,479 Speaker 1: We know that Joe Biden, as president and even a Senator, 102 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 1: has always preferred sort of the diplomatic, negotiated solution. Democrats 103 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 1: generally believe the government phone for a purpose, and I 104 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:05,920 Speaker 1: think if Biden wanted to insert himself into this process, 105 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 1: he could, but you're absolutely correct, he's been completely off 106 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:12,679 Speaker 1: the radar in this entire conversation, which admittedly only popped 107 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 1: up in the last twenty four hours. 108 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:16,160 Speaker 3: So what do we think happens? 109 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 1: Like? 110 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 3: Are we extending programming on television and radio on Friday 111 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 3: to cover the weekend? 112 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 1: Like? 113 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 3: What are we think in here? 114 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 1: Yeah, my odds of a shutdown are about twenty percent 115 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: right now, which is admittedly very high for me. I'm 116 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 1: usually in this zero to five percent range from a shutdown, 117 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 1: so I'm much higher than I usually am. But I 118 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,159 Speaker 1: don't think a shutdown is guaranteed. I think that Speaker 119 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,840 Speaker 1: Johnson and indeed President elect Trump should want the government 120 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 1: to stay open so that on January third, they can 121 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: get the ball rolling, they can elect their speaker, they 122 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: can start passing if this fill your twenty twenty five budget, 123 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:48,040 Speaker 1: paving the way for a reconciliation bill on border and 124 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 1: then a future package on the tax package next year. 125 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: That is, you know, investors should take away one thing today. 126 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: It's that the tax bill it's going to take all year. 127 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 1: It's going to be very hard to write, and there's 128 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 1: some very strong chance that Republicans have to negotiate with 129 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: Democrats on it, and that odds are growing as this 130 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 1: debt ceiling, A c our fight is exhibiting in real time, 131 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: but I don't think we'll shut down. I think a 132 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: very short term, maybe two weeks stopgap bill is what 133 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 1: we're going to see probably tomorrow morning. 134 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 6: Interesting. 135 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 5: Henrietta, thank you so much for joining us. I know 136 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:18,040 Speaker 5: you're super busy when all this news breaking here. Henrietta 137 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 5: trez Manage, your partner and director of economic policy for 138 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 5: Vida Partners. She has safely asconced down there in New Orleans. 139 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:25,160 Speaker 5: She's like, I'm not going to Washington or New York 140 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 5: any that's silliness. 141 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,279 Speaker 3: Yeah, but she's probably not getting the umbrella drink either. 142 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 5: So yeah, she's not in there. She spent the work. 143 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 4: A little wind there is. 144 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 2: That you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us 145 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 2: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and 146 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 2: Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen 147 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 148 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 2: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty, Alex. 149 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 5: Steel, Paul Sweeney. We're live here in on our Bloomberg 150 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 5: Interactive Broker Studio. We're streaming live on YouTube as well, 151 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,599 Speaker 5: also ahead over YouTube dot com search Bloomberg Podcast, and 152 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 5: that's where you will find us again. Yesterday, the market 153 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 5: really surprised, let's put it that way, on the messaging 154 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 5: coming out of the Fed here as it relates to 155 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 5: potential cuts. In twenty twenty five, we had the S 156 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 5: and P off two and a half percent, the Nastack 157 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 5: off three and a half percent. Yesterday, big, big volume 158 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 5: across the board, a little bit of a rebound here 159 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 5: this morning. Let's see where we go from here. David 160 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 5: Kodla joins US founder, chief executive officer, and chief investment 161 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 5: strategist at Mainstay Capital Management, Troy, Michigan, A great town, 162 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 5: by the way, been there, Hey, David, talk to us about, 163 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 5: you know, kind of how you saw the market action 164 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 5: yesterday afternoon and then maybe today kind of what's the 165 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:39,119 Speaker 5: market telling me about the how it views this federal reserve. 166 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that the Good morning Paul per your 167 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 7: lead into the segment. I think the markets and investors 168 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 7: were surprised, and I think also confused. I think the 169 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 7: presser was quite confusing. Jay Powell, you know, if I 170 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 7: heard all that and here. 171 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 2: Talking about why why. 172 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 7: He was hiking rates a quarter point would have been 173 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 7: a good explanation, but they're not right. They're cutting a 174 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 7: quarter point. So there's some real confusion about you know, 175 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 7: where where the FED is headed. Are they making another 176 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 7: policy mistake as we speak, And as far as the 177 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 7: FED is concerned, you know, they're their their problem is uncertainty. 178 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:24,400 Speaker 7: You know, we have a saying in our industry, right 179 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 7: the markets hate uncertainty. Well, the FED hates uncertainty too. 180 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 7: And they really don't know what to expect for inflation 181 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 7: next year with Trump policies still not being fully known, 182 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 7: how they'll get rolled out, when they'll get rolled out. Uh, 183 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 7: some of those very potentially very inflationary. They don't know 184 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 7: how much inflation will be fighting next year. But the 185 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 7: presser was more about the labor market, you know, the 186 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:49,080 Speaker 7: other side of the mandate. 187 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:51,199 Speaker 2: So, uh, the. 188 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 7: Market was just confused in the face of that. I 189 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 7: think it was you know, shoot now asked questions later. 190 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:01,319 Speaker 3: I guess the question that rose yes to many economists 191 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 3: is that the FED is at a risk of making 192 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:07,559 Speaker 3: a policy mistake in that they're going to fight and 193 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 3: inflation that they don't necessarily need to fight at the 194 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 3: expense of the labor market. That was one narrative that 195 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:14,640 Speaker 3: some economists were putting out there. 196 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 7: What do you think of that, Well, good morning, Alex. 197 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 7: I think that I think they're focused on the I 198 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 7: think they're focused on the wrong thing. I think that 199 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:28,679 Speaker 7: twenty twenty five is going to be the year of 200 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 7: the stubborn inflation battle. Whether it's the massive federal deficit, 201 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:39,679 Speaker 7: spending that's going to happen, tax cuts, all these things 202 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:44,959 Speaker 7: that are good for the economy, but in tariffs especially 203 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 7: that could cause a rise in inflation. It's that area 204 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 7: that is more of the problem, I think than labor, 205 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 7: and that's where you're seeing on the long end of 206 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 7: the curve. Look what's happened since September eight teenth. Over 207 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 7: the past three months, the Fed has cut one hundred 208 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 7: basis points. The ten year yield has gone up nearly 209 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 7: one hundred basis points. That is not the normal reaction 210 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,199 Speaker 7: function that we expect. In fact, we usually the ten 211 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 7: year follows by some degree to what the Fed is doing. 212 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 7: So that's the bond vigilantes. At Yard Denny's coin term 213 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 7: back in the nineties, it's a bond vigilantes that are 214 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 7: fighting the FED. And so there's just a lot of 215 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,559 Speaker 7: confusion out there. I think uncertainly on the part of 216 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 7: the FED. That's why the press or seem confused. And 217 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,680 Speaker 7: I think there's they need to be looking more towards 218 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:38,679 Speaker 7: inflation than labor right now in my opinion. 219 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 5: David, you've been in these markets many years. You've seen 220 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 5: all kinds of cycles and news events, and it looks 221 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 5: like we may have another government shutdown. As an investor, 222 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 5: how does that factor in, if at all, to your outlook? 223 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 7: You know, and back in the mid nineties when we 224 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 7: had this first government shut down pending, it was armageddon 225 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:06,680 Speaker 7: and the markets reacted violently to it. As years have 226 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 7: gone by, we've seen that investors in the markets kind 227 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 7: of shrug off the antics in Washington, d C. More 228 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 7: and more. And for many of these types of events, 229 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 7: we might get volatility for a day, maybe two days, 230 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 7: but it passes. I think the markets investors have learned 231 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 7: to largely ignore it or have just chosen to, you know, 232 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 7: and look at fundamentals. So, you know, whether we get 233 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 7: a continuing resolution passed tomorrow, it doesn't come till Monday, 234 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 7: there'll be some volatility in the markets potentially because of it, 235 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 7: but then we'll move on. 236 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 3: What do you make of the fact that the earnings 237 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 3: picture is TBD for next year and that the consensus 238 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 3: and then what the S and P is implying is 239 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 3: pretty strong, and then you wind up having this uncertainty 240 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 3: about the FED. Now, some might say it's okay because 241 00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,479 Speaker 3: earnings are going to be really good, we're gonna have deregulation, 242 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:01,440 Speaker 3: and we're going to lower taxes, so yeah, we can 243 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:03,839 Speaker 3: justify that. But the other side is, we just don't know, 244 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:07,000 Speaker 3: and if rates stay stickier, as you say, that inflation 245 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 3: actually increases a little bit, that that consensus might need 246 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 3: to come down. Where do you stand on. 247 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 7: That it might need to come down? But if we 248 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 7: look at Trump's policies, deficit spending, deregulation, which will be 249 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 7: good for US corporations across the board. Tariffs will be 250 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 7: good for some bad for others, depending on if they're 251 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 7: a multinational conglomerate bringing products in or whether it's even 252 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:38,559 Speaker 7: smaller mid cap companies where their input costs will be impacted. 253 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 7: But I think net net, we're still looking for a 254 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 7: good earning for good earnings growth next year, and that 255 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:49,320 Speaker 7: Trump policies net net will probably only benefit that. 256 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 3: All right, thanks a lot, David, really appreciate. David Kudlah, 257 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 3: founder's CEO and chief investment strategist at Mainstay Capital Management Intinent. 258 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:01,560 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg and te podcast. Catch us 259 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:04,559 Speaker 2: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play 260 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 2: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App, Listen on 261 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 262 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 2: on YouTube. 263 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:14,839 Speaker 3: All right, Nathan Dean was here yesterday and now he's 264 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 3: back in DC. I can't I can't keep dragged on 265 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 3: that the wholesali Thank yeah. 266 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 6: All right. 267 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 3: Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence and your policy analyst, joins us 268 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 3: now from DC. And we had a totally different conversation 269 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 3: yesterday and when it came to politics, and then today 270 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 3: it's like, oh wait, maybe there will be a shutdown 271 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 3: on Friday. Oh wait, maybe the debt ceiling is in 272 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,839 Speaker 3: play now rather than in the summer. What is your 273 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 3: take and consensus someone's going to happen. 274 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 8: Yeah, So yesterday I said there was a twenty percent 275 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 8: chance of a government shutdown. I'm only going to go 276 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 8: to forty percent. So I think I'm out of consensus here. 277 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 8: But what I'm saying is that I think we're going 278 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:48,440 Speaker 8: to have a forty percent chance of a government shutdown 279 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 8: by Monday, so tomorrow night. Obviously, the government shuts down 280 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,560 Speaker 8: at midnight unless it continuing resolution has been passed. But 281 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 8: we've seen in the past before Congress sometimes takes the 282 00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 8: weekend to figure out a deal. And I think despite 283 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 8: all the blome and the political prosting you're seeing at 284 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 8: the moment, I think a deal can be made for 285 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 8: clean CR plus, disaster AD plus potentially the one year 286 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 8: extension of the farm bill because if something doesn't happen, 287 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,320 Speaker 8: that farm bill and the impact on farmers is going 288 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 8: to be substantial in twenty twenty five if the government 289 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 8: shuts down, and I think that's going to be what 290 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 8: finally gets this deal over the edge. But like you said, 291 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 8: the debt ceilings now involved, and there's going to be 292 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 8: a lot more political hiccups to come, certainly over the 293 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 8: next few weeks and months. 294 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 5: All right, From my perspective, the politics and that people 295 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 5: involved seem a little squirrely to me. I've got a 296 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 5: president elect and I got some civilian dude really weighing 297 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 5: in on this issue in a big way and moving markets. 298 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 5: Yet I have a president who's actually sitting in the 299 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 5: chair and I don't hear anything. What's going on in 300 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 5: debt Washington? What are you guys doing down there? 301 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 8: Yeah, so essentially what the Democrats are doing right now 302 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 8: essentially letting the Republicans try and figure out what is 303 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 8: the base case scenario. All these negotiations that you may 304 00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 8: know are taking place in the House with Speaker of 305 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 8: the House Mike Johnson, and he was the one that 306 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 8: negotiated a deal that Elon Musk and then later President 307 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 8: Trump came in and said, no, we're not comfortable with. 308 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 8: So what you need right now is the Republicans to 309 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 8: come on board with an idea of a bill. 310 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 6: That will pass the House. 311 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 8: And we've even seen Senator Majority Leader Chuck Schumer say, 312 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 8: you look, from the Senate perspective, we're just gonna let 313 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 8: the House figure it out first and then we'll deal 314 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 8: with it. And that's where the dead ceiling eventually comes in, 315 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 8: because look, you can't really get a dead ceiling deal. 316 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 8: I don't think within another like say, twenty four hours. 317 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 8: These usually take weeks and months to hash out. And 318 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 8: if the Republicans decided to move forward with a two 319 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 8: year extension of the debt ceiling. More often than not, 320 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 8: Republicans also insist on cuts as a result of that. 321 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 8: So I think what will happen here is the Democrats 322 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 8: sort of way back and they say, Okay, Speaker of 323 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 8: the House, Michael Mike Johnson, you figure it out, you 324 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 8: come up with a plan, you get this plan through 325 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 8: the House, and then if that's the case, then we'll 326 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 8: move forward and we'll deal with it on the Senate side. 327 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 8: Because for everything you're talking about, just remember this has 328 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 8: to be bipartisan because you need seven Democrats. I'm sorry, 329 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 8: you're gonna need a lot of Democrats to come forth 330 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 8: and get this through on the Senate side. 331 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 3: Is the debt ceiling really in play? 332 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 1: You know? 333 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 6: Obviously? 334 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 8: I think President Trump when he made the statement earlier 335 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 8: today that they should abolish the debt ceiling, that's something 336 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 8: the Democrats would actually welcome. We saw Senator Elizabeth Warren 337 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 8: even say that she would support President Trump on that matter. 338 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 8: I think that was also a way for President Trump 339 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 8: potentially to give Speaker Johnson a way out, saying, look, 340 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 8: if we can't get the debt ceiling done. But from 341 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 8: the market perspective, what I would say, is the deadline 342 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 8: is not December thirty. First, that's only the date in 343 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 8: which Treasury can use extraordinary measures to keep her funding. 344 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 8: The actual X date, if you will, is sometime next summer. 345 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 8: So from the market perspective or in terms of government 346 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 8: shutdowns and debt ceilings and so forth, we're not seeing much. 347 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 6: Impact from all this political posturing at the moment. 348 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 5: What's the feeling in Washington and Nathan about the status 349 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 5: of Speaker Johnson because it feels like he's really under 350 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 5: the gun here from all side. 351 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, if we had had this conversation last week, 352 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 8: I'd say it's fairly comfortable of his position, but today 353 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 8: it's not. Senator Ran Paul even floated the idea of 354 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 8: potentially having Elon Musk to be the Speaker of the House, 355 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 8: because you don't have to be a member of the 356 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 8: House of Representatives to be the Speaker. Now, I don't 357 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,159 Speaker 8: think that's going to happen, but a lot of the 358 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,920 Speaker 8: Johnson allies, if you have been sort of questioning whether 359 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 8: or not he has the chops for the job early 360 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 8: next year, and you know that election is going to 361 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 8: take place on January third. 362 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 6: So I'm not exactly. 363 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:24,880 Speaker 8: Sure, I'd be comfortable if I was in Speaker Johnson's position, 364 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 8: But that being said, I don't know anybody else who 365 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 8: wants the job. 366 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 3: Wait, but let's get back to the Elon Muslin because 367 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 3: I don't think I think I knew that, but then 368 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 3: I think I forgot it, and then now I know 369 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:35,360 Speaker 3: it again. So just walk me through. So anyone can 370 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 3: be Speaker of the House, like my mom could be 371 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 3: Speaker of the House if she gets enough votes. 372 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, if Paul wants to get back again 373 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:42,920 Speaker 8: at the government service, we can have Paul be Speaker 374 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 8: of the House. 375 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 6: You know. 376 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,680 Speaker 8: Essentially, it's something that goes back to obviously through the 377 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:48,320 Speaker 8: Constitution days and so forth. 378 00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 6: But there's been a. 379 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,399 Speaker 8: Lot of talk over the last few years about potentially 380 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 8: having President Trump become Speaker of the House. During the 381 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 8: Biden administration, obviously that didn't go anywhere. But the reason 382 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:58,680 Speaker 8: why Elon Musk would not want to be Speaker of 383 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 8: the House is because, yes, you get to use the 384 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:02,679 Speaker 8: bully pulpit and you get to decide what's on the floor, 385 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 8: but you also have to get into the nitty gritty 386 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,400 Speaker 8: and manage all two hundred and twenty Republican members next 387 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 8: year when you only have a majority of five, and 388 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 8: that is an extremely difficult position when you have to 389 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 8: make tough choices like am I going to shut the 390 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,399 Speaker 8: government down? Or am I going to extend the farm 391 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 8: bill one year and have provide all this relief to 392 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 8: the American farmer base. 393 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 6: That's a tough choice. 394 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 8: And that's why I don't think the elon musk rumor, 395 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 8: if you will, is a serious one. 396 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 5: Okay, Okay, we're still processing. 397 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 3: We're still processing. I also just feel like, I mean, 398 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:37,440 Speaker 3: can you imagine like running the house, running Spear, or 399 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 3: being part of SpaceX, running your AI company, running Tesla, 400 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 3: and there's a lot going on there. Okay, so give 401 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 3: me some well, I guesually, let's go back and talk 402 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 3: about playbook. So we have learned what maybe a Trump 403 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 3: playbook for twenty twenty five then looks like is this 404 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 3: what we can start expecting? 405 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 1: Right? 406 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 3: Like the Congress does something and then musk Ramaswami and 407 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:01,879 Speaker 3: Trump kind of weigh in in different ways, and then 408 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 3: that affects policy. Is this going to be the state 409 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 3: of play I. 410 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 8: Think so, I mean, obviously, you know, a lot has 411 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:09,800 Speaker 8: to happen but I think you know, one of the 412 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,680 Speaker 8: biggest issues, if you will, is if they do continue 413 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 8: to if they pass a continuing resolution that kicks this 414 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 8: into March. Now you've got a funding fight within the 415 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 8: first one hundred days of President Trump's presidency. 416 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 6: And it's usually when presidents. 417 00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 8: Don't want to deal with funding because they want to 418 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:28,400 Speaker 8: use their political capital on things like immigration, border potentially 419 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 8: in this case, a reconciliation package for tax extensions. 420 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 6: But if this government funding fight kicks the. 421 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:36,360 Speaker 8: Canda March, now, you're going to have Elon Musk tweeting 422 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 8: out there saying, look, we need to delete the CFBB 423 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 8: or get rid of the Department of Education. And at 424 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,920 Speaker 8: that point you are going to need seven Democrats in 425 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 8: the Senate to agree. You most likely won't, and now 426 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 8: you're going to have a government shutdown. Is that a 427 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 8: fight that President Trump wants to have within the first 428 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 8: one hundred days of his presidency. 429 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:53,919 Speaker 6: We really don't know. 430 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 8: It just depends on the politics per se. But I 431 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 8: will say is is that we do think a prolonged shutdown, 432 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 8: whether it's in March or September of next year, I 433 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,879 Speaker 8: would bet on September a prolonged shutdown of two to 434 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 8: three four wy five weeks potentially could happen, because right 435 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,359 Speaker 8: now both parties are saying, look, you know, we're seeing 436 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 8: pretty we're sitting pretty comfortable with the positions that we have. 437 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 5: All right, let's go to what was a front page 438 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 5: topic a matter of week ago, a week or two ago. 439 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 5: Which are some of these nominations that have to get 440 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:28,199 Speaker 5: sentate confirmation in January? Any update on some of the 441 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:33,159 Speaker 5: more contentious ones, mister Hegseth, Tulsa Gabbard, RFK Junior, just 442 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 5: to name a few. 443 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 8: Yeah, so they're making the rounds on Capitol Hill as 444 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 8: we speak. I mean Senator Fetterman from Pennsylvania met with 445 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 8: Pete Hegseth last week, sorry, earlier this week, and rf 446 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 8: K Junior is making the rounds today. You know, I 447 00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,119 Speaker 8: would just say that, you know, I think right now 448 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:49,959 Speaker 8: and for the rest of December, it's really just going 449 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 8: to be more of these like photo meet and greeps 450 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 8: and so forth like that. We're not seeing a ton 451 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 8: of pushback on Pete Hegseth like we saw a week ago. 452 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 8: But I think a lot of the far our works 453 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,719 Speaker 8: will come down to these committee hearings and obviously these 454 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,439 Speaker 8: nomination hearings because a lot of the tough questions are 455 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 8: going to be asked, and these are going to be 456 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,679 Speaker 8: asked from both Republicans and Democrats, and so for somebody 457 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 8: like Tulca Gabbard, if the senior Democrat begins to really 458 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 8: question on some of those positions, things could potentially unravel. 459 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 6: But I will say, remember. 460 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 8: The Republicans are going to have fifty three in the 461 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 8: Senate next year, which means you can afford to lose four, 462 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,400 Speaker 8: and so you know, many of these cases, I think 463 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 8: it's going to be pressure for them to withdraw because 464 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 8: the votes may be there for them to get across 465 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:29,919 Speaker 8: the line. 466 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 3: Amazing. It's going to be fascinating to sort of watch 467 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 3: how all of this winds up playing out. We also 468 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:38,640 Speaker 3: heard over the last well we heard it yesterday, we've 469 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,439 Speaker 3: had about twenty four hours to digest, is that the 470 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 3: Supreme Court is going to take up that TikTok version. 471 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 3: What do we make of that? Like, how do you 472 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 3: think that's going to play out in DC? 473 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 8: Yeah, So my colleague Matt Schattennelman and I were talking 474 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,359 Speaker 8: about this yesterday and I really raked his head on this. 475 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:56,879 Speaker 8: You know, This is a question of you know, this 476 00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 8: law was scheduled to go into effect January nineteenth, one 477 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 8: day before the inauguration, and there wasn't really I mean, 478 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 8: just remember we're talking about a law here, and so 479 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:07,520 Speaker 8: if you want to undo the law, you either need 480 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,480 Speaker 8: the courts to come in and say it's no constitutional 481 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,480 Speaker 8: or Congress has to pass a new law. And so 482 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,919 Speaker 8: there isn't really much of a magic wand that President 483 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 8: Trump could do on day one, unless the Supreme Court 484 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 8: were to give that magic wand to him. He could 485 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 8: certainly say the Department of Justice, yes, you don't have 486 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 8: to enforce this. But from the Apple perspective or any 487 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,359 Speaker 8: other company that offers it on their app store, you know, 488 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,200 Speaker 8: that's actually not a very comfortable position because you want 489 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 8: to essentially be able to say that President Trump can't 490 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 8: change his mind three months from now, or a new 491 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,400 Speaker 8: Democratic administration four years now could say to Apple, look, 492 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:41,000 Speaker 8: we understand that you know you've been operating against the law. 493 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 6: Here's a multi billion dollar enforcement action for your problems. 494 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,400 Speaker 8: So the Supreme Court case is going to be extremely 495 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 8: key to whether or not Apple gets any of this 496 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 8: clarity going forward, and what essentially the law details. 497 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 5: All right, Nathan, thank you so much for joining us. 498 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 5: Nathan Dean, He's our go to person don in Washington, 499 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,479 Speaker 5: d C. As it pertains to all that policy stuff there, 500 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,040 Speaker 5: and I think we're gonna be talking a lot to 501 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 5: him in the coming days, weeks, and months and maybe 502 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,159 Speaker 5: the next four years. Nathan Deane, Senior Policy alis for 503 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:10,720 Speaker 5: Bloomberg Intelligence. He is based in our Washington DC bureau. 504 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on apples, Spotify, 505 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you will get your podcasts. Listen live 506 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 2: each weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 507 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 2: b iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 508 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 509 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal.