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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 2: thirty five, forty forty five fifty and the Kicks, His

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Speaker 2: Black Covers Football stunned us.

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Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, please stumble and bumble the latter turn

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Speaker 1: to tatter on the Exode.

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Speaker 2: J the Late Table, Off the Fail the Night. By

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Speaker 2: my God, it's not the size of the dog in

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Speaker 2: the fight, it's the size of the fight in the

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Speaker 2: All Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented

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Speaker 2: by DraftKings Sportsbook. This is the group of five Deep Dive.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host Mike Calberry is joined by my Action

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Speaker 2: Network co host Duck. We are more than halfway through

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Speaker 2: the season. Reminder, though we have fourteen regular season weeks.

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Speaker 2: That's not always the case with college football, but it

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Speaker 2: is one of those years where we have the bonus

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Speaker 2: regular season week, so we're spreading it out a little

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Speaker 2: bit more. I feel like there's still a ton of

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Speaker 2: meaningful football ahead of us, and hopefully lots of profitable

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Speaker 2: football here for this particular podcast. Because we've been at best,

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Speaker 2: you know, basically trend and water. We've had some bad breaks.

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Speaker 2: I could use my sounding off segment to talk about

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Speaker 2: San Jose State, who had a ninety six percent cover

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Speaker 2: probability with eleven minutes ago the end the game, missfield goal,

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Speaker 2: pick six punt punt and they ran out of time.

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Speaker 2: So no the choice but podcast prison. Sorry Kenny Mozilolo,

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Speaker 2: but you are behind the bars for the foreseeable future.

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Speaker 2: Such a frustrating game. Basically, it played out script wise

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Speaker 2: exactly how I thought it was. But as I mentioned,

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Speaker 2: I'm saving my official sounding off segment for something that

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Speaker 2: I'm hoping that long term fans of this show can

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Speaker 2: appreciate it. That's my good guy Trent Alferd will gets

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Speaker 2: it there and his farewell just in a moment. Duck,

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Speaker 2: go ahead first with your sounding off. I know you

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Speaker 2: have lots of things on your mind after last week,

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Speaker 2: and even as we record on Tuesday night, some Tuesday

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Speaker 2: night Conference USA Action as your chili run hot. What

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Speaker 2: you gotta say, I guess.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And it wasn't fun last week to be on

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Speaker 3: the wrong side of so many blowout losses. Louisiana Tech

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Speaker 3: played very poorly, Fresno State didn't show up at Colorado State,

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Speaker 3: but you know we had San Jose State who was

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Speaker 3: comfortably in hand and blew it. We had Toledo that

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Speaker 3: was comfortably in hand and couldn't hold on and in game.

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Speaker 3: Situational coaching is at an all time bad as far

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Speaker 3: as I've observed this twenty twenty five college football season.

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Speaker 3: We saw San Jose State completely abandoned what got them

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Speaker 3: four touchdowns in the first twenty minutes against Wyoming. We

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Speaker 3: saw Toledo up twenty one to nothing in a rivalry game,

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Speaker 3: in a revenge spot, completely blow that lead, abandoning what

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Speaker 3: was working. We have seen it tonight on Tuesday Night,

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Speaker 3: where we've seen teams situationally not know when to get

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Speaker 3: into half. Liberty has been outscored twenty four to nothing,

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Speaker 3: or in the second half against New Mexico State. It's

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Speaker 3: just been astonishingly bad situational coaching. You know what, I

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Speaker 3: think that these staffs need. I think every FBS staff

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Speaker 3: needs to have somebody on the sidelines, possibly a former gambler,

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Speaker 3: somebody who understands situational football as well as we do,

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Speaker 3: to whisper in the coach's here, the coach whisperer, Hey,

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Speaker 3: here's what we need to do. This is what you

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Speaker 3: should do. I've watched a thousand football games in my life,

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Speaker 3: and you have it. This is what we need to do.

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Speaker 3: I think the coach whisper is something an advisor of

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Speaker 3: sorts that these coaches need, because it's just stunning how

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Speaker 3: bad and how frequently the wrong decision is made.

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Speaker 2: From a time management perspective. I completely agree, but I

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Speaker 2: think it's my experience in corporate America and working in

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Speaker 2: politics as well. You can have the best advisors in

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Speaker 2: the world, but if you're one of those pricks who's

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Speaker 2: like the buckstop, so me, I make all the big

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Speaker 2: decisions here for this organization, and then you don't take

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Speaker 2: any of that advice, then it's kind of meaningless. If

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Speaker 2: you have one of those time management specialists or someone

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Speaker 2: to talk situational football like I love the head coaches,

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Speaker 2: and we saw this kind of in the last ten

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Speaker 2: years where coaches started to make a shift of when

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Speaker 2: to go for two, particularly down fourteen. You've seen this

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Speaker 2: go from a niche almost confusing moment for the announcers

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Speaker 2: down fourteen, go for two when you get that first touchdown.

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Speaker 2: So now it's pretty much Boiler players standard. Everybody does it,

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Speaker 2: but that was from head coaches saying, all right, the

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Speaker 2: math guys explained it to me. They told me, these

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Speaker 2: are the moments. It's almost like when to hit on blackjack,

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Speaker 2: when to stay, those kind of things, and they just

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Speaker 2: they gave up that power a little bit. They need

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Speaker 2: to expand that to when to use timeouts and how

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Speaker 2: to effectively run a four minute offense or you know,

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Speaker 2: whether it's end of half or end of game situation.

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Speaker 2: You're only as good as the advice that you're willing

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Speaker 2: to take. So I agree with you. I think it

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Speaker 2: would be interesting to have roles and niches carved out

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Speaker 2: sistant coaches. But you just you gotta take your hands

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Speaker 2: off the reins for a second, because these head coaches

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Speaker 2: the ego to say I know better or you know,

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Speaker 2: forget the analytics. It's a gut decision kind of thing.

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Speaker 2: It's it's still rears its head here in the Year

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Speaker 2: of our Lord twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 3: Well, let's go back to that basic strategy too. Let's

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Speaker 3: get teach coaches how to play basic strategy. You need

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Speaker 3: to play basic strategy if you want to give yourself

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Speaker 3: the best chance to win.

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Speaker 2: No, it's absolutely true. All right, onto my farewell to

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Speaker 2: our dear Trent dilferd Trent beomoan the fact, yeah end

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Speaker 2: of an area. He bemoaned the fact that in the

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Speaker 2: NIL era he had limited resources, being in a G

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Speaker 2: five school, he couldn't quite get there. But let me

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Speaker 2: say something right off the jump here, I'm going to

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Speaker 2: borrow from the immortal words of Alec bald In Glengarry

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Speaker 2: Glenn Ross. You can't win with the resources you're given.

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Speaker 2: You can't win shit. You are shit. Hit the bricks,

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Speaker 2: pal because you are going out all this feels fantastic.

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Speaker 2: Nine and twenty one. Oh, we were all five and

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Speaker 2: fourteen in the American thirteen and seventeen against the spread.

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Speaker 2: In his thirty games as the leading man there in

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Speaker 2: the Magic City, you lost by nineteen points per game

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Speaker 2: on the road. In your tenure, you brought in a

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Speaker 2: high school defensive coordinator who struggled so badly for two

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Speaker 2: seasons he still doesn't have a Wikipedia page. You basically

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Speaker 2: did the opposite of putting him on the map. The

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Speaker 2: revered Bill Clark brought this program back from extinction. He

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Speaker 2: won them a pair of Conference USA titles. He won

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Speaker 2: the Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year Award. You know

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Speaker 2: what Eddie Robinson, the Grambling legend, and Bill have in common.

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Speaker 2: They loved this goddamn sport. They didn't care who they

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Speaker 2: were coaching. They poured themselves into those jobs. They didn't

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Speaker 2: talk down to the level of football. That's why I

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Speaker 2: always hated Trent Delfer from the jump. He had this

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Speaker 2: kind of like, well, I was a Super Bowl winning quarterback.

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Speaker 2: Have you seen my Elite eleven show on ESPN? You

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Speaker 2: screw you, Trent, all right. You talked down to the program.

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Speaker 2: You talked down to the level. You said, you know,

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Speaker 2: we're not all of bamas scoffing at that. People in

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Speaker 2: Birmingham want to win and they used to have winners.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, Eddie Robinson a legendary ex's and

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Speaker 2: o's tactician. He didn't need a Lead eleven or a

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Speaker 2: prime time NFL ESPN segment to come off as this smooth,

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Speaker 2: you know quarterback whisper. He just coached him up and

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Speaker 2: got his program to new heights. All right, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: calm myself down for a second, because the bottom line is,

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Speaker 2: whether it's Bill Cork, whether it's Eddie Robinson, they won

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Speaker 2: google him. You can go ahead and Google Trent Dilford.

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Speaker 2: He didn't win shit in two and a half years.

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Speaker 2: He's gone. But you ab they can right the wrongs

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Speaker 2: in three easy steps. And hey, look ahead, you've already

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Speaker 2: completed Step one. Fire Trent Dilford, gold star, great job.

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Speaker 2: Step two, fire mark Ingram the athletic director in charge.

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Speaker 2: The buck stops with him, give him his walking papers.

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Speaker 2: And step three And this one's the simplest one. Go

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Speaker 2: had in hands back to Brant Vincent and say we

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Speaker 2: made a mistake. We hired the wrong guy. You were

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Speaker 2: the interim head coach. You were right here, you had

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Speaker 2: everything that we needed and we'd let you walk. And

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Speaker 2: now he basically took one of the worst programs. If

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Speaker 2: you want to talk resources and expectations, Ulm was absolutely

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Speaker 2: at the bottom of the barrel. He's gone eight and

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Speaker 2: ten in the past year and a half with limited resources.

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Speaker 2: And to me, he's impressed me with his ability to

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Speaker 2: win and also find and develop talent. He found a

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Speaker 2: Mott Hardy, who, by the way, just the best running

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Speaker 2: back in the entire country at Miszoo. Now he recruited

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Speaker 2: him out of high school. He found that diamond in

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Speaker 2: the rough. Get on the phone, get yourself a new

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Speaker 2: ad and get him to Birmingham's stat restore the glory

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Speaker 2: that is UAB football. This is one of the greatest

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Speaker 2: stories in really the past seventy five years of college football,

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Speaker 2: to say a program was extinct, it was brought back

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Speaker 2: to life. It was instantly turned to a winner. You

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Speaker 2: suffered long enough through Trent Dilfer, make it right with

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Speaker 2: coach Vincent. Do you think it's that simple in terms

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Speaker 2: of getting him in there? And the buyout wasn't crazy.

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Speaker 2: I think it was a couple million dollars for Trent.

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Speaker 2: That's fine, whatever, move on, cut your losses. You should

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Speaker 2: be able to make a compelling offer to Vincent to

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Speaker 2: get him on board. What are your thoughts there, Douck

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Speaker 2: ABC one two three. It's just that easy.

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Speaker 3: They've already completed step one. Step two isn't far behind.

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Speaker 3: And then just pick up the phone and tell Brian Vincent, Hey,

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Speaker 3: we've got to check here for you. You fill in

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Speaker 3: the amount. It's like one of those old draft loan checks.

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Speaker 2: You'd get the mail. You fill in the amount.

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Speaker 3: There's no APR here, you'll bess we want to give

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Speaker 3: you all the money.

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Speaker 2: If we're all in on you. We made a mistake,

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Speaker 2: but we.

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Speaker 3: Want to right the wrong today. Just pick up the

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Speaker 3: phone you ab don't care if you black ball me

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Speaker 3: before we get into.

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Speaker 2: The bets for this episode and toss it over to

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Speaker 2: a year of action Pro. Also, if you'd like to

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Speaker 2: tail some of the bets that you're about to hear

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Speaker 2: that we're going to run through in the episode here

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Speaker 2: for week eight, there's going to be quick slip links

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Speaker 2: in the podcast and episode description or visit Action network

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Speaker 2: dot com slash Bet now that yeah, it's time to

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Speaker 2: get into our best bet segment. That means four picks

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Speaker 2: in total, two from each of us. Duck take us away.

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Speaker 2: You're headed to the Mac No fear after you got

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Speaker 2: burned last week by Toledo. Let's go with a big favorite.

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Speaker 3: Well, and I'll just set the stage here too. The

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Speaker 3: path has been cleared for our preseason MAC contender to

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Speaker 3: make a run at the MAC title. All they got

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Speaker 3: to do, as we as it was coined and Happy Gilmore.

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Speaker 3: All you got to do is just tap it in,

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Speaker 3: Just tap it in, Just give it a little tap

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Speaker 3: tap tappy. Ohio has a conference loss. Toledo has two

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Speaker 3: conference losses. Those were the major two preseason players here

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Speaker 3: in MAC play. It's wide open for Buffalo. You two

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Speaker 3: to zero league play for Buffalo. You've had the bye

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Speaker 3: week to kind of recalibrate and reset your team. This

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Speaker 3: is the chance for Pete Lembo to really make his

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Speaker 3: mark on the program, and it starts in this game

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Speaker 3: against U Mass. I'm laying the sixteen and a half

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Speaker 3: with Buffalo. Buffalo has the top rushing offense in the

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Speaker 3: MAC and the top run blocking grades run blocking graded

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Speaker 3: offensive line per pff U Mass ninety seventh nationally and

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Speaker 3: defensive run success rate allowed and one oh ninth and

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Speaker 3: epa per play defensively. You Mass also one hundred and

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Speaker 3: third in early down success rate surrendered. Buffalo is going

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Speaker 3: to pound the rock here and they are going to

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Speaker 3: have success in early downs, and so what that's going

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Speaker 3: to do is it's going to keep the playbook open

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Speaker 3: on second and short, on third and short. Where you

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Speaker 3: Mass is going to be in trouble in this game

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Speaker 3: is when Buffalo runs play action. Off of the run action,

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Speaker 3: Buffalo is going to take some deep shots here with

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Speaker 3: McMillan and Victor Snow and with so much attention being

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Speaker 3: put on l. J. Henderson at running back, and with

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Speaker 3: you Mass having the worst coverage grades in the conference

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Speaker 3: per PFF, this is the week that the deep shots

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Speaker 3: are going to connect for Buffalo. The offense is going

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Speaker 3: to be explosive, They're going to have some downfield passing.

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Speaker 3: The run game is going to be humming stively. Buffalo

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Speaker 3: is second in the MAC in graded pass rush per PFF,

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Speaker 3: second overall tackling grade, and third in overall run defense.

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Speaker 3: U Mass is scoring six and a half points per

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Speaker 3: game this season against FBS fos UMass is one twenty

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Speaker 3: ninth nationally in allowing havoc against them on offense. Just

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Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty seventh are the minute men in

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Speaker 3: rush play success rate and one twenty fourth in early

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Speaker 3: down success. You Mass should be in third long Ton here.

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Speaker 3: I don't see them being able to throw their way

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Speaker 3: out of it Buffalo minus sixteen and a half here,

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Speaker 3: it's really the second half of their season, which starts

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Speaker 3: this week. I think they blow you Mass out.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you Mass coming off that performance against Kent.

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Speaker 2: What do you say in the locker room that the

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Speaker 2: schedule is only going to get harder, considerably harder in

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Speaker 2: the MAC from here on out. I can't imagine they

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Speaker 2: have a whole lot of optimism or outs in terms of,

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Speaker 2: you know, changing things up schematically, personnel wise. It is

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Speaker 2: what it is with the minute Men this year, So

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Speaker 2: I wish you luck on that one. I'm going to

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Speaker 2: turn to potential shootout in the sun Belt between Texas

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Speaker 2: State and Marshall for my first best bet here going

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Speaker 2: over sixty four and a half between the Thundering Herd

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Speaker 2: and the Bobcats. What have I learned about Texas State

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five that I didn't already know? Not much,

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Speaker 2: if we're being honest. I mean there's been a slight

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Speaker 2: downgrade year over year. Offensively, Lucien McLeod and Mahdi in

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Speaker 2: the backfield had hurt, but last season, there were fifth

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Speaker 2: and total yards and seventh in scoring. They've fallen back

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Speaker 2: to fifteenth and twenty ninth, respectively in those metrics. So

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Speaker 2: they've gone from elite for the G five merely just

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Speaker 2: really good. Brad Jackson, both Sparks, Lincoln Perry. I think

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Speaker 2: they have enough in them to score at least thirty

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Speaker 2: five points against this Martiall defense. But the defense for Texas, goodness, goodness, gracious,

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Speaker 2: Like I've done this experience with GJ. Kinney, We've set

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Speaker 2: it for years that he's on the radar for his

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Speaker 2: next coaching job. All he really had to do we

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Speaker 2: just get a little bit more out of his defense,

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Speaker 2: figure out a way scheme wise or through the portal

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Speaker 2: to get enough players in the secondary to be able

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Speaker 2: to pair with what it's usually been a pretty good

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Speaker 2: pass rush. They haven't been able to do it. I mean,

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Speaker 2: if I just sum up this defense in one run

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Speaker 2: on sentence, they can't tackle, they can't stop the run,

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Speaker 2: and no matter how many are in the box, they

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Speaker 2: can't get their run fits right. And the turnovers have

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Speaker 2: dried up like an oil deal gone bad. In Texas,

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Speaker 2: there is just nothing there to bail them out on

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Speaker 2: that side of the football. Marshall, meanwhile, has gone from hopeless.

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Speaker 2: In August, we talked about this program being raided by

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Speaker 2: Southern miss So now they're ferocious by Sunbelt standards. Here

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Speaker 2: in October, Carlos del Rio Wilson his three starts first

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Speaker 2: FBS competition, thirteen touchdowns, zero turnovers, three hundred and five

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Speaker 2: total yards per game. The kid is absolutely cooking. You

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Speaker 2: can't take your foot off the accelerator at any point,

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Speaker 2: whether you're rushing the pass or trying to contain them,

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Speaker 2: because if you leave anything open, he'll throw over you,

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Speaker 2: He'll tuck it and run, He'll make things happen. This

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Speaker 2: kid is just a gamer. It is instantaneously totally changed

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Speaker 2: the whole course of their season. This now is a

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Speaker 2: team that has real aspirations of going to a bowl game.

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Speaker 2: Everything is in front of them. Points per game scored

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Speaker 2: with del Rio Wilson at the helm eighty two in

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Speaker 2: terms of those three games. So when you look at

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Speaker 2: the scoring that Marshall's allowed and the points of the

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Speaker 2: thundering her to put on the board, eighty two. Now,

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Speaker 2: granted one of them came in a double overtime game

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Speaker 2: against Louisiana. It pains me. I'm gonna say this is

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Speaker 2: my total the year I'm going over. I absolutely love

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Speaker 2: this one. I was shocked when this popped and it

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Speaker 2: wasn't in the seventies. It's like, was this number set

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Speaker 2: by some kind of power rankings from a month ago?

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Speaker 2: Because Marshall's playing in NonStop shootouts, Texas State has no

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Speaker 2: defense and by the way, Texas State plays fast and

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Speaker 2: Marshall's pace. If you look at their season long numbers,

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Speaker 2: they're in the sixties in place per game, but with

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Speaker 2: del Rio Wilson at the helm, they're running closer to

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Speaker 2: a top thirty offense in terms of plays per game.

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Speaker 2: And if they're playing catchup or trying to keep up

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Speaker 2: with the Texas State offense that can score a bunch

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Speaker 2: of points. I can see this game being played in

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Speaker 2: the eighties. I know that we don't ladder very often

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Speaker 2: when it comes to totals in college football. You know,

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Speaker 2: there's essentially almost a running clock now with the rules

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Speaker 2: of the way they are. I just see this one

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Speaker 2: blowing past this number. What are your thoughts on this

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Speaker 2: Sun Belt matchup that, at least in August looked like

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Speaker 2: and you know, just put a win on the board

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Speaker 2: for Texas State, but they've been playing with their food.

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Speaker 2: They've been playing in high scoring games again burned. They're

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Speaker 2: just coming off that forty one thirty four loss to Troy.

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Speaker 2: High scoring, high scoring, high scoring. I think both of

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Speaker 2: these teams are capable of going for forty, which is

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Speaker 2: music to my ears. With a total sitting in the

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Speaker 2: mid sixties.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I totally agree. Texas State has to feel really

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Speaker 3: chopped after blowing the last couple of games, games they

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Speaker 3: had firmly in hand and situationally, their defense could not

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Speaker 3: be counted on to get stops. I think Texas State

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Speaker 3: will win this game, but the mindset offensively has to

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Speaker 3: be no lead is safe. We gave up a twenty

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Speaker 3: eight to seven lead in the first quarter against Troy.

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Speaker 3: We gave up a lead with forty five seconds to

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Speaker 3: go against future at Arkansas State, who can't move the

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Speaker 3: football and hardly anybody. Our offense has to score, score, score,

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Speaker 3: and we have to score fifteen in order to win

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Speaker 3: this game or we could be in some major, major trouble.

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Speaker 3: So I think that has to be the mindset for

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Speaker 3: Texas State. I think Marshall has really revamped their offensive output.

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Speaker 3: We've seen Marshall. Since del Rio Wilson has been inserted

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Speaker 3: at quarterback, they look a lot more sharp, crisp. They're

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Speaker 3: scoring a lot more points. The offense is moving the

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Speaker 3: football in that kind of quasi air raids system that

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Speaker 3: they wanted to implement. Anyway, we just didn't see at

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Speaker 3: the first couple games of this season because they didn't

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Speaker 3: have somebody at the helm that was able to really

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Speaker 3: run the show. But I think both of these defenses

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Speaker 3: are unreliable. Both giving up six yards per play for

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Speaker 3: the entire season will really struggle for either one of

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Speaker 3: these teams to get any stops. We should see a

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Speaker 3: tremendous amount of pace. Seventeen eighteen total possessions. This is

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Speaker 3: going to be a fun one, all right.

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Speaker 2: Last week one of my winners was a very ugly

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Speaker 2: under between Western Michigan and ball State, And you're going

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Speaker 2: back to the well. I think this is just a

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Speaker 2: cash cow going on ball State unders. Oh, let's see

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Speaker 2: who they're paired up with. Akron O Man, I can't

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Speaker 2: believe that this number is sitting at forty two and

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Speaker 2: a half. Where did you have this pegged?

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Speaker 3: You know, I had it pegged probably forty one and

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Speaker 3: a half to forty three. It's just it's one of

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Speaker 3: those it's one of those plays where you're going to

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Speaker 3: have very very little pace. You look at Akron's offensive

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Speaker 3: rankings this season, one thirty third in offensive success rate,

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Speaker 3: one thirty sixth in offensive finishing drives, one twenty third

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Speaker 3: in explosiveness, but they're only converting third down at thirty

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Speaker 3: two percent. Only eleven of their twenty two red zone

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Speaker 3: trips have resulted in touchdowns fifty percent. Well, let's flip

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Speaker 3: over to the other side and look at ball State

399
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Speaker 3: one thirty six then FBS dead last and offensive success

400
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Speaker 3: rate one thirty fourth and finishing drives one thirty fourth

401
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Speaker 3: in havoc allowed against them on offense, thirty one percent

402
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Speaker 3: on third down, and only half of their red zone trips,

403
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Speaker 3: which is ten, have resulted in touchdowns five on the season.

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Speaker 3: Ball State has played a little bit better at home

405
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Speaker 3: this season, but both of these teams are just completely

406
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Speaker 3: capable of pulling complete no shows on offense. Both receiving

407
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Speaker 3: corps grade out in the bottom four in MAC play.

408
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Speaker 3: Both of these teams grade out defensively in the top

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Speaker 3: half of the league. In defensive tackling metrics. The ball

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Speaker 3: State pass rush could present a little bit of trouble

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Speaker 3: to Akron and their quarterback Ben Finley. They try to

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Speaker 3: throw the football and they're a little better at throwing

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Speaker 3: than they have been in previous seasons. But the other

414
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Speaker 3: kicker here, which will be a little bit of a bonus.

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Speaker 3: We're expecting sustain fifteen mile an hour wins. Gust will

416
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Speaker 3: be at twenty six. There could be a little precipitation.

417
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Speaker 3: The conditions in Ohio this weekend could be nasty and

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Speaker 3: that'll matriculate the under. I think this is going to

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Speaker 3: be a slow burning grind. We should see very little

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Speaker 3: pace on either side here. Akron might try to throw

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Speaker 3: it around a bit, they won't have a lot of success.

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Speaker 3: We know what ball State's going to do with truncating

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Speaker 3: the amount of possessions, getting the quarterback run game going.

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Speaker 3: This is an absolute dead under in my opinion. First

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Speaker 3: one to seventeen wins this game.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to close out our segments. The Delaware Blue

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Speaker 2: Hens a short road favorite at Jacksonville State. I'll lay

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Speaker 2: the two and a half here. First, a shout out

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Speaker 2: to college Football Zone over on Twitter. He catalogs, among

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Speaker 2: many things overachieving and underachieving teams against the spread in

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00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 2: college football. The Blue Hens are one of the major overachievers.

432
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 2: They're plus thirty three against the spread this season, which

433
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 2: is third best in CUSA. They hung with Colorado, they

434
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 2: either pushed or you got to win there, depending on

435
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:33,639
Speaker 2: the number you got. And then they went and whipped

436
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 2: FIU down in South Florida as a road dog, and

437
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 2: it kind of makes sense in terms of the narrative

438
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:41,880
Speaker 2: in the offseason. Yes, they're an FBS newcomer, but they're

439
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 2: a veteran team overall, and they're buttoned up in their

440
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 2: coaching staff seven senior or super seniors. On their defense,

441
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 2: they took Western Kentucky down to the wire in the

442
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,399
Speaker 2: game that they would have won if Minnicouchi doesn't fumble

443
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 2: with the goal line. I've seen enough from them to

444
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 2: both respect them and trust them. And Jacksonville State. Meanwhile,

445
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 2: they have three wins, which is great. I think it

446
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 2: is artificially inflating this number, where if they were a

447
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 2: little bit closer to who they really were in terms

448
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 2: of the opponents they played or the breaks they caught,

449
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 2: I think this would be closer to maybe Delaware minus five.

450
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 2: Because when you look at their wins, when you do

451
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:17,640
Speaker 2: the autopsy win over Murray State FCS school, a two

452
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 2: point win over sam Houston State, who is more or

453
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 2: less an FCS school as well, they're headed two and

454
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 2: eleven or maybe twelve lost season this fall. Then you

455
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 2: got Gavin Wimsatt, who has been benched in favor of

456
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,159
Speaker 2: Cayden Kreole. The kid can absolutely run the football. There

457
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 2: is no doubt. This is essentially a Service Academy offense.

458
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 2: He can do that. He's run for nearly three hundred

459
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 2: yards in the last two games in a pair of touchdowns.

460
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 2: But where I like to pull my attention is the

461
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 2: defensive staff for Delaware against Kayden Salter and Lewis that

462
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 2: freshman Delaware gave up all of fifteen rushing yards to

463
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 2: the Buffalo's quarterbacks. Kewan Jenkins, who at least has mobility.

464
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 2: He finished with five rushing yards on ten attempts. Cayden

465
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 2: Bennett from Delaware State, the Zennior Wheelhouse duck at the

466
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 2: fca S level, who's a run first quarterback thirty yards

467
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:06,479
Speaker 2: on ten carries. This defense will be prepared for exactly

468
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 2: what Jackson State wants to do and they're more or

469
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 2: less a one dimensional team because what they want is

470
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 2: Crele to throw at fifteen to twenty times. You know,

471
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 2: Max in the game mainly dinking and dunking, but if

472
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 2: he's forced to play catch up, if they're able to

473
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 2: stop the run or get them into third and unmanageables,

474
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 2: I think there's going to be a lot of three

475
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 2: and ouns. Manny Roe has the defensive coordinator for the

476
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 2: Blue Hens. He's been at UDEL for six years. He

477
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 2: faced really good FCS dual threat quarterbacks in the playoffs

478
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 2: and during the regular season in as many years as

479
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 2: their DC. I think he will have some answers. I

480
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 2: think you're going to see a lot of quarterback spies.

481
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 2: I think they're basically going to challenge this kid to

482
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 2: beat them, and I just think that they're prepared. I

483
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 2: think they're the better team. Jacksonville State was a team

484
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 2: I was very low on in the preseason, and they're

485
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:56,120
Speaker 2: being bolstered by wins over teams outside of the top

486
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty in terms of S and P plus.

487
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 2: So I'm going to go ahead and take the Blue

488
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 2: Hen's year under that key number of three. I would

489
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 2: lay three as well. I just you know, I'm hoping

490
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 2: that everybody can get home to the window and catch

491
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 2: this one and we don't get burns by a backdoor

492
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 2: cover late. What are your thoughts on the Blue Hens

493
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 2: A team that we do need to specify this. Yes,

494
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 2: they cannot compete for the Conference USA championship no matter what,

495
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 2: but if you look at the bylaws, they're also ineligible

496
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:23,439
Speaker 2: quote unquote for a bowl game. But if there are

497
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 2: not enough teams that are eligible for those bowl games,

498
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 2: they're one of the first teams that get a call.

499
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,119
Speaker 2: We saw this with James Madison a few years back.

500
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 2: They ended up getting to go bowling in a year

501
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 2: when they weren't eligible. So in terms of getting to

502
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: bowl eligibility, that's still top of the totem poll for them.

503
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 2: They want to have a winning season, winning record within

504
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 2: Conference USA, so there's no reason to think that they're

505
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 2: going to coast at this point or just feel good

506
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 2: about their first year at the transitional level of FBS football.

507
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,880
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on you Dell very very much

508
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 3: a team that I think has been overperforming expectations for

509
00:24:56,200 --> 00:25:00,239
Speaker 3: coming into FBS their first season. They're undersized defensively, there

510
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 3: has been some depth that has been of concern. It

511
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 3: certainly was of concern in the preseason. But you just

512
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 3: talk about a tough out, an absolute feisty bunch of

513
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 3: kids that play hard every single week and really had

514
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 3: chances against Western Kentucky, really played fairly good football on

515
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:22,120
Speaker 3: the road at Colorado for a half, did really well

516
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 3: against Connecticut in a spirited battle there, and against FIU

517
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 3: in league play, and now they've got twelve days of rest. Really,

518
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 3: I think Delaware was a team that just needed the

519
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 3: bye week so they can regroup, get themselves a little rest.

520
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,680
Speaker 3: They have six extra days of rest over Jacksonville State,

521
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 3: who was in a complete dog fight against possibly the

522
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:46,160
Speaker 3: worst FBS team or bottom five anyway in sam Houston State,

523
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 3: and now Delaware has the scheduling advantage. I have been

524
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 3: so impressed with Minnikuci and how he's led this offense.

525
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 3: I really think that this is a good play. I

526
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,400
Speaker 3: think Delaware. I mean, nobody's put Delaware under the microfiche

527
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 3: this season as many times as you have, and if

528
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 3: you've looked at it, I mean, I think this team

529
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,399
Speaker 3: has every opportunity to go down there and win I

530
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 3: don't think Jacksonville State's very good.

531
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 2: I'm out of town. I got all right best bets

532
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 2: now in the book here for week eight, which means

533
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 2: it's time for your four minute offense. You're going to

534
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 2: take a deep dive on UNLV Boise. I have to

535
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 2: imagine if UNLV wins this game, that they're head coach

536
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 2: who has coached in Mississippi State, he's coached at Florida,

537
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 2: he has all this experience at power programs. I could

538
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 2: just see him just walking right off the sideline into

539
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 2: the arms of an athletic director who wants to throw

540
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 2: him some money. It's going to be so interesting to

541
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 2: see what is going to transpire in the coming weeks

542
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 2: with the Penn State domino effects. Like if Manny Diaz

543
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 2: leaves and goes back to Penn State, that's certainly a

544
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 2: job that is of interest to many G five head coaches.

545
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 2: Same thing with Bill O'Brien at Boston College to a

546
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 2: lesser degree, but there could be total and utter chaos

547
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 2: in this coaching carousel. So there's a potential for UNLV's

548
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 2: leading man to go ahead and scoop up that money

549
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 2: and immediately leave. And by the way, the death Knel.

550
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 2: He didn't deny it. In his press conference this week.

551
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 2: He said, I am going to be the coach here

552
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,479
Speaker 2: at UNLV. All right, Dan Mullen, I'll believe it when

553
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 2: I see it, because if you win this game, then

554
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,879
Speaker 2: I mean, the AP voters can't it, can't keep him

555
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 2: out of the rankings for another week. I understand. I'm

556
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 2: one of them. I think that they are frauds based

557
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 2: on what their record is. I think if they were

558
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 2: playing a realistic schedule, they'd be closer to four and two.

559
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 2: They could have lost this past weekend to Air Force,

560
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 2: who's what one in five in the season? Get it,

561
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 2: I get it, I get it. But the reality is

562
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 2: they're undefeated. They have an opportunity here against Boise, who

563
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 2: seems to be you know, turning it on at the

564
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 2: right time. I have a played attack on at the

565
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,719
Speaker 2: end of your preview, but I'm really interested to hear

566
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,120
Speaker 2: your deep dive between the Broncos and the Run right.

567
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 3: Well, and you alluded to a massive Mountain West Conference

568
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 3: standings implication game here as the loser of this one

569
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 3: will almost undoubtedly need some help in order to get

570
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 3: back into the race. And I think this game will

571
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 3: look a lot different than the two epic battles that

572
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 3: we had between these two foes last season. I'm still

573
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 3: not entirely convinced that UNLV is rock solid and really good,

574
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 3: But I mean a bunch that could have two or

575
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 3: three losses already this season. But you know what they

576
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 3: escaped against Miami of Ohio. They escaped by the skin

577
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 3: of their teeth against air Force last week doing so,

578
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 3: giving up six hundred and three yards of offense to

579
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 3: the fly Boys and all five Air Force red zone

580
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 3: trips found paydirt. Calandria, I thought, did a really nice

581
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 3: job throwing the ball against an Air Force secondary that

582
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 3: really hasn't stopped anybody all season. But three seventy seven

583
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 3: through the air, eleven and a half yards per pass

584
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 3: attempt was pretty impressive. You look at Jet Thomas, just

585
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 3: absolutely mocuenhaut right now, eight yards per carry on the

586
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 3: ground explosivity from anywhere on the field, and Boise State

587
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 3: is one thirty third nationally in defensive rush play explosiveness

588
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 3: surrendered this season. PFF grades the Broncos as the third

589
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 3: worst run defensive unit in the conference, but it was

590
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 3: better last week against New Mexico. So does that carry

591
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 3: over here? We'll see. What we should see is we

592
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 3: should see a ton of early down rushing plays from UNLV,

593
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 3: five to six yards a pop at a time. So

594
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 3: what does that allow for? That allows the creative dynamic

595
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 3: Dan Mullen offense to have an open playbook on second

596
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 3: and medium, third, medium, All the plays in the playbook

597
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 3: are at his disposal. UNLV should have confidence in their

598
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 3: old line here to convert third and short, fourth and short.

599
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 3: They're converting third downs at forty nine percent this season

600
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 3: and are five out of seven on fourth downs, so

601
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 3: they should be confident in their group to get the

602
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 3: extra yard when they need it. They're going to run

603
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 3: the rock too, ninety eight rushing attempts in their last

604
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 3: two games at home, and they want to get sire

605
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 3: gaines moving downhill and then run play action off of it.

606
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 3: Exactly what we saw against New Mexico last week. Maddox

607
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 3: Mass Maddox Madsen twenty two of thirty two last week

608
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 3: two thirty six, seven and a half yards per attempt,

609
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:23,479
Speaker 3: three touchdowns. The receiving core is going to be critical here.

610
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 3: Chris Marshall Latrell cables tight end Matt latter all are

611
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 3: more important in a game like this as UNLV at

612
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 3: times has been torched through the air. So can the

613
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 3: UNLV defenders maintain their eye discipline and lock in on

614
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 3: the pass catchers. It's a it's a very similar situational

615
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 3: ask with a much different scheme. They had to maintain

616
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 3: some e discipline last week facing the triple option, it

617
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 3: didn't go so well. The I discipline here is are

618
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 3: they going to be able to support the run and

619
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 3: can they also lock in on this receiver group or

620
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 3: they're going to get torched in play action. So definitely

621
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 3: things to watch. PFF grades UNLV coverage unit as third

622
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 3: best in the conference, but they have zero pass rush.

623
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 3: They have not secured a sack in three weeks, so

624
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 3: it could be trouble for this UNLV run In ReBs

625
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 3: D a D which is giving up five point six

626
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 3: yards per carry on the ground, The betting line shows

627
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 3: Boise is eleven and a half point favorites. The totals

628
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 3: tick down a bit, but I don't necessarily agree with

629
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,239
Speaker 3: the move sixty two and a half. Now, I'm here

630
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 3: to tell you guys, I think this one's a shootout.

631
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 3: Both UNLV and Boise rank in the bottom two defensively

632
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 3: in the Mountain West, two worst teams in the mount

633
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 3: West in terms of tackling grades, partially driven by misstackles.

634
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 3: If you're gonna miss tackles, you're going to allow yards

635
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 3: after contact. You're gonna try to shoulder tackle and just

636
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 3: throw your shoulder in without wrapping up. That's gonna be

637
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 3: trouble because these backs are going to make you pay.

638
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 3: These tight ends are going to make you pay. For Boise,

639
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 3: Jet Thomas is going to make you pay. I think

640
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 3: we see a ton of explosivity. I think we see

641
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 3: teams up and down the field, even if there's not

642
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 3: a tremendous amount of pace. I think we're high scoring here.

643
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 3: So I'm interested Mike to hear what you think about this,

644
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 3: about this matchup, and then we'll get to your play

645
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 3: in two in a drill.

646
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean listen, I'll give away the play right

647
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 2: here because this was nearly one of my best bets

648
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 2: for the week.

649
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 3: I was.

650
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 2: I think it's just one of those weeks where I

651
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 2: got three. I feel very confident about it. It's over

652
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 2: sixty two and a half in this game. I mean,

653
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 2: UNLV games have gone over the closing total by an

654
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 2: average of nine point eight points per game. Boiseovers are

655
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 2: four and two on the season. And as you alluded to,

656
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 2: you got into all the nitty gritty stats. UNLV's getting

657
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 2: torn apart on the ground and Boise states numbers offensively

658
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 2: when it comes to their running game. Pall into two

659
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 2: buckets against nationally ranks South Florida and Notre Dame. One

660
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 2: hundred and eleven yards per game on the ground, a

661
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 2: woefull three yards flat per carry against the rest of

662
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 2: their schedule, which I would put into a bucket of

663
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 2: lousey to really lousy run defenses. Nine hundred and twenty

664
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 2: three rushing yards five point five yards per carry. Dylan

665
00:32:56,400 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 2: Riley breakout game incoming against this UNLV defense. And the

666
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 2: biggest concerns that I have when it comes to the

667
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 2: Boise defense is their fundamentals are just not good. One

668
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty thirty in tackling and when they're dealing

669
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 2: with mobile, dangerous quarterbacks who can make things in off platform,

670
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 2: off script like Clandria. Let's just take a look at it.

671
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 2: Byron Brown, South Florida, Liam Zarka Air Force. They give

672
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 2: up seventy one total points to the Falcons and the Bulls.

673
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a very similar game

674
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 2: script they had the juice offensively to make up for

675
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 2: all those defensive sins and score thirty eight or forty

676
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 2: two or forty five points in this game. I just

677
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 2: don't understand why the market is pushing this number down,

678
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 2: but I'm going to take advantage of it. I would

679
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 2: have played it at sixty four. I certainly like it

680
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 2: at sixty two and a half. This is one of

681
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 2: those examples of I think this is the floor for

682
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 2: the market, So jump in at the best number. And

683
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 2: even if you have to go up to sixty three,

684
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 2: but you get minus one oh five instead of a

685
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 2: minus one twenty, great, let's try to maximize the money

686
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 2: that we can win on this play. All right, on

687
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 2: to our group of five moneyline parlay resented by DraftKings.

688
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 2: We're going to get into hopefully some winners here because

689
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 2: last week oof it did not go well for US

690
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 2: North Texas. The Cinderella story. They looked like they had

691
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 2: all this energy, they had the sellout, they had the

692
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 2: black unis on. You know, they were trying to hang

693
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 2: with all the offensive fireworks from South Florida, and then

694
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 2: that second half scoring flurry hit them. It looked like,

695
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,240
Speaker 2: you know, basically a heavyweight match where they got knocked

696
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 2: down twice in like forty seconds, and then the match,

697
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 2: the game, it was over for all intents and purposes.

698
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 2: And then, as you mentioned with your side of it

699
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 2: with ball State, they didn't come to play. But listen,

700
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 2: whether it's a one possession loss, a bad beat, or

701
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:45,719
Speaker 2: getting you know, the whole thing wiped out, getting your

702
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 2: ass kicked, listen, we gotta have some pride. We got

703
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:50,959
Speaker 2: to get right back up on this horse. I'm going

704
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 2: to actually throw mine out first. We're going to switch

705
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 2: up the order here, try to switch up the mojo

706
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 2: a little bit. I'm gonna go utsa money line plus

707
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 2: one sixty five because I think the Roadrunners have woken up.

708
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 2: They took their lumps. They fought the good fight against

709
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 2: Texas A and M in a paycheck game. They lose

710
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 2: by eighteen points in College Station. Then they couldn't quite

711
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 2: get it together defensively the next week at home against

712
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 2: Texas State, and then the air was coming out of

713
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 2: the balloon. They lose that shootout by a touchdown, but

714
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 2: now they've won three or four. The offense just raggdalled

715
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:25,320
Speaker 2: Rice perfect balance. Offensively, McCown has a super deep receiving

716
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 2: core that he's spread the ball out to. And I think,

717
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 2: what's interesting. I did the deep dive.

718
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 3: I went back.

719
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 2: I watched about three games worth of tape, all on

720
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,760
Speaker 2: two X speed to go through all of his past attempts.

721
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 2: I also looked at the stats. He was let down

722
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 2: so significantly by his offensive line one hundred and twenty

723
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 2: ninth nationally and pass protection. But we figured that might

724
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 2: happen because they had so many transfers moving in. They

725
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 2: had three transfers making significant contributions, if not starting on

726
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 2: this offensive line. They haven't geled yet. So what did

727
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 2: Justin Burke, their offensive coordinator do. He went to the

728
00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 2: quick game. He's cut down on McCown's a dot by

729
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 2: fifteen percent year over year. He's getting the ball out

730
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 2: of his hands, and he's saving the deep throws to

731
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 2: come off of play action. You're also seeing more of

732
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 2: his play action with waggles and rollouts. You saw it

733
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 2: against Rice. Having that extra time, that space, creating a

734
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 2: pocket to the left and the right, I think has

735
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,240
Speaker 2: really helped as well as speedouts and these bubble screens

736
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 2: to get the ball out of his hand. He's not

737
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 2: as rattled. This is a smart coach. Burke is somebody

738
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 2: who I trust, and with a veteran offense, even with

739
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 2: a leaky offensive line in front of him, I trust

740
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 2: McCown with this play calling combination to put up points

741
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 2: in this game in North Texas. We just mentioned it.

742
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 2: The emotional letdown of getting blasted in your game of

743
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:42,240
Speaker 2: the century on your home field with a freshman quarterback

744
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:43,839
Speaker 2: who came in as a darling, one of the best

745
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 2: stories in the whole country. Well, he turns it over

746
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:48,399
Speaker 2: three times, and when you flip it around, you look

747
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 2: at the North Texas defense. The clear hole in UTSA

748
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 2: is their offensive line. Well, U and T's ninety first

749
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,720
Speaker 2: in pass rush per PFF. They only have thirteen sacks

750
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 2: on the entire season. They even made Western Michigan offense

751
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 2: looked pretty good earlier this season. So if you give

752
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,359
Speaker 2: this quarterback and this play call or time to work,

753
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 2: I think they're going to carve up this defense, which

754
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:10,439
Speaker 2: right from the get go I think moves this game

755
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 2: at plus one sixty five much closer to a coin flip.

756
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 2: And while I think this has shootout written all over it,

757
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 2: I think the Roadrunners are going to continue there, sent

758
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 2: back to the top of the Americans, certainly to be

759
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 2: either a pest or somebody who can play their way

760
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 2: in if they get a lot of help to the

761
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:27,800
Speaker 2: conference championship game. At the end, it's going to require

762
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:30,280
Speaker 2: them winning out. It's going to require them playing borderline

763
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 2: perfect football. But I trust what I'm seeing from them

764
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:35,959
Speaker 2: offensively in the last month, compared to mess to Maker,

765
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,719
Speaker 2: who as a freshman with very limited experience, we know

766
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 2: the whole story. He didn't even start in high school.

767
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 2: All of this is pretty much new to him. You

768
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 2: know what else is new? Coming off a three interception

769
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 2: performance where the whole country had eyes on you, I'm

770
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 2: willing to pay to see it that these kids bounce

771
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 2: back and they have what it takes offensively and defensively.

772
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 2: I think this thing is just mispriced. I like the

773
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 2: UTSA to win it out right on the field. What

774
00:37:57,920 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 2: are your thoughts on the road Runners kind of a

775
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 2: their dominance in this in state battle.

776
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 3: Well, we talked about it on this podcast last week.

777
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 3: UTSA certainly asserted their dominance last week and I think

778
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 3: that that was such a spot for UTSA to try

779
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 3: to get right. I think if you just look at

780
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 3: the broad landscape of the American as gamblers, we can

781
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 3: say UTSA has no shot, but you can't tell that

782
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 3: locker room. That that locker room still goes in and

783
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 3: prepares week after week, assuming that they're going to get

784
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,799
Speaker 3: back in the race. Well, who do they play? They

785
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 3: played North Texas this week, then two Lane, then South Florida.

786
00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 3: If they sweep, which I'm not calling for, but if

787
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 3: they sweep, they're right back in it. And so you

788
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 3: have to assume that that group believes that they can

789
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 3: get their season back on track, that they have not

790
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 3: put their best foot forward. And if you look at

791
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 3: North Texas and some of the opponents they've played this season,

792
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 3: anybody who's punched back has given North Texas some problems.

793
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 3: Western Michigan Army, South Alabama to an extent, who played

794
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 3: them to six point game with a minute left until

795
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 3: North Texas entered through the front door. And then last

796
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 3: week against South Florida, North Texas was going Haymaker for haymaker.

797
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 3: They get doubled up in the second quarter. That flips

798
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 3: to the third quarter back to back scores they could

799
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 3: just never recover. So it's a very interesting spot. I

800
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 3: hate to go against our darlings in North Texas. We

801
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,880
Speaker 3: still love the mean Green, but there's a real chance

802
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 3: that UTSA has found it now. Can they bring it

803
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 3: on the road? Can they do it again?

804
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 2: Yeah?

805
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 3: To be seen, but real interesting. You're getting a nice

806
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:34,959
Speaker 3: price on UTSA, and I think it's a real interesting spot.

807
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 3: I think it'll be a game where we'll know the

808
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 3: trajectory of the rest of their season based on how

809
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 3: they play on Saturday afternoon. So I'll be watching that

810
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 3: one for sure.

811
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 2: One of the ways I start my prep every single week,

812
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:47,799
Speaker 2: I go back to the previous week. I look at

813
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 2: who had an emotional letdown, who had an emotionally draining win,

814
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 2: perhaps in a rivalry game. Anybody bowling Green? Anybody that

815
00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 2: game they were drawing dead down, twenty one nothing, rivalry

816
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 2: game against the arguably the best team in the market

817
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:07,320
Speaker 2: terms of overall talent. They should lose that game ninety

818
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 2: nine times out of one hundred. I believe Stuck dropped

819
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 2: it on the recap podcast where they were like oho

820
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:16,800
Speaker 2: and seventy five down, you know, twenty one points this

821
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 2: millennium and now they're one in seventy five, So they

822
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 2: pulled a rabbit out of their hat. That's great. That's

823
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 2: why I circled this Central Michigan game. I didn't end

824
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:27,359
Speaker 2: up pulling the trigger on it, but I can't wait

825
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 2: to hear your rationale for why fire up Chips is

826
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:32,959
Speaker 2: the right side as the part two to this money

827
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 2: line underdog parlay.

828
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 3: Well, I still am not convinced that Bowling Green is

829
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 3: any good, and the comeback win says more about Toledo

830
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 3: in my opinion than it does Bowling Green. You know,

831
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 3: shame on you, Jason Kandal for blowing that twenty one

832
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 3: zering lead in the rivalry game in revenge spot from

833
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:52,440
Speaker 3: last season with Lucian Anderson at quarterback for Isaigi. You

834
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 3: should be embarrassed. Toledo should frankly just be absolutely embarrassed.

835
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 3: But anyway, you know, I should have seen a poor

836
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 3: perform Rman's a couple of weeks back coming from Central

837
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 3: Michigan Central Michigan because they themselves were off of a

838
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:09,800
Speaker 3: big rivalry win against Eastern Michigan, so it should have

839
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 3: been not really a surprise that they go to Akron

840
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 3: and throw up a complete turd. But now it's time

841
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:17,799
Speaker 3: to circle the wagons for the Chips. If this team

842
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 3: wants to push towards some of their set forth three

843
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 3: season goals, they're not going to win the MAC. But

844
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 3: if this team's going to make a bowl game, and

845
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 3: you look at what's coming down the pipe with Western Michigan,

846
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 3: Buffalo Toledo left on the slate, this game now has

847
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 3: to be circled in red ink as one they have

848
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:35,319
Speaker 3: to get if they want to cap their season off

849
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,959
Speaker 3: with a bowl game appearance. So now it's Bowling Green

850
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 3: in that situation like you just mentioned, where they're off

851
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 3: the big rivalry, win, high emotional game. You know, you

852
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 3: look into the inner workings of that contest and Bowling

853
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 3: Green ran very very few successful plays against Toledo. They

854
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 3: finished the game with just two hundred and twenty six

855
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 3: offensive yards on fifty three total plays. The ground game

856
00:41:57,239 --> 00:42:00,919
Speaker 3: averaged one point seven yards per carry against Toledo. Drew

857
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 3: Pine is still questionable for Bowling Green. We know that

858
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:07,480
Speaker 3: Anderson's not a good quarterback. I really think Central Michigan

859
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 3: can kind of draw it up here to limit the

860
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 3: Bowling Green offensive attack. BG is won twenty sixth inn

861
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:16,280
Speaker 3: offensive explosiveness and one hundred and seventh nationally in offensive

862
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 3: finishing drives. I don't think there's gonna be as many

863
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 3: scoring opportunities because Central Michigan is going to run the ball.

864
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 3: They're going to possess the ball. They're going to truncate

865
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 3: the game down and limited possessions. I think their defense

866
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:32,439
Speaker 3: will force a couple turnovers. I think after the bye

867
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:36,320
Speaker 3: week to stew on that embarrassment against against Akron. You

868
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 3: don't want to lose to Akron. That's a team you

869
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:40,320
Speaker 3: just do not want to walk out of there and

870
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 3: lose too. This is a complete get up spot here

871
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:46,320
Speaker 3: for Central Michigan. I think they'll out physical. It's almost

872
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:48,840
Speaker 3: a reset on your season. Like we saw in the

873
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,839
Speaker 3: opener against San Jose, where this team was unknown, there

874
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 3: was no expectation, and they just brought the attitude, the

875
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:58,320
Speaker 3: physicality in the in both sides of the offensive defensive trench.

876
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 3: I think we'll see some reset here with Matt Drinkle

877
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 3: in this group. I expect the Chips to be fired up.

878
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:05,879
Speaker 3: I expect them to play pissed off. I think they're

879
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 3: going to win the game of you.

880
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 2: I like to do a little exercise where I try

881
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:12,360
Speaker 2: to project, particularly for the MAC, just as like a

882
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 2: fun look ahead. I'll just go ahead for two weeks

883
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 2: out and look to project some of the spreads two

884
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 2: weeks ago, before that Akron result and before the Toledo

885
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 2: upset for Bowling Green. This one is a pick, and

886
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 2: I think it is rightfully moved in the market, but

887
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,839
Speaker 2: I think it's providing real value. I think these teams

888
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 2: are so much closer to a coin flip than what

889
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 2: you're getting. What's the actual number here, it's plus one

890
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:37,399
Speaker 2: fifteen Yeah, oh yeah.

891
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 3: Actually, our friends over at DraftKings have the best number

892
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:43,360
Speaker 3: on that one, plus one fifty four over at DraftKings.

893
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 2: Wonderful. So punch those two in hopefully we get this

894
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 2: across the finish line for you. I like the fundamentals

895
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:51,720
Speaker 2: of this play a lot, particularly when you talk about

896
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 2: a team with a first year head coach. You're not

897
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 2: going to lose the locker room. You're going to listen

898
00:43:57,360 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 2: as a collective team. In terms of we have the

899
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 2: letdown against Akron, now we have this extended prep time.

900
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 2: In terms of tuning a coach out, that's not where

901
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 2: they are in year one under Drinkle, so I think

902
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 2: this is the right time to grab the chips at

903
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 2: an advantageous number. All right. That was our moneyline parlay

904
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 2: presented by Draftkans. Check out the Parlay Express account and

905
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 2: the free award winning Action Network app where we'll be

906
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 2: posting this moneyline parlay. You'll find a bunch of other

907
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 2: fun long shot bets and parlays there as well. You

908
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 2: can also find the quick slip link in the podcast

909
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 2: and episode description, or visit Action network dot com slash

910
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 2: bet now to find and tail some of the bests

911
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:34,439
Speaker 2: we've discussed today, including our G five moneyline parlay. Time

912
00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:36,839
Speaker 2: to close things out here, I already gave away one

913
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 2: pick in my two minute offense, which was the over

914
00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 2: in UNLV boise. So let's go through your FCS card here.

915
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 2: You got a lot of favorites that you like here

916
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:45,759
Speaker 2: and we gave Yeah.

917
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,760
Speaker 3: We'll start in the Southland conference withincarnate word. I project

918
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:50,839
Speaker 3: them at minus fourteen and a half. I would lay

919
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:53,720
Speaker 3: up to nineteen and a half. Ever since EJ. Colson

920
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 3: has been inserted into the lineup at quarterback for UIW,

921
00:44:57,239 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 3: the passing offense has been significantly in proved as the

922
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:04,320
Speaker 3: red Shirt freshman has completed seventy two percent of his passes,

923
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 3: with a seven to one touchdown to interception ratio and

924
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 3: nine hundred and forty six yards. The Cardinals have played

925
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 3: a significantly stronger schedule to date and the way that

926
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 3: East Texas A and M lost their last game against

927
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:19,279
Speaker 3: Lamar was excruciating. And now they're back on the road here.

928
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 3: The Lions allow forty points per game and four hundred

929
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 3: and seven yards per game, and they do not run

930
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:27,760
Speaker 3: the ball particularly well on offense. This could be major,

931
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 3: major trouble here against a resurgent UIW team. Next one

932
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:33,839
Speaker 3: we're going to go to is the IVY League Yale.

933
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:36,359
Speaker 3: I project them laying seventeen and a half. I'd lay

934
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 3: up to twenty and a half. You just talk about

935
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:41,399
Speaker 3: a total spot to be able to play with piss

936
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:44,760
Speaker 3: and vinegar in your blood. After an excruciating loss against

937
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,799
Speaker 3: Dartmouth last week, Dartmouth and Yale do not like each other.

938
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 3: Yale could have won the game they didn't. Well, this

939
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:51,719
Speaker 3: is a spot here for Yale to have a little

940
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:54,480
Speaker 3: fun hosting stone Hill, who's a bottom five offense in

941
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,919
Speaker 3: all of FCS football. Stone Hill is averaging fifteen point

942
00:45:58,000 --> 00:46:00,479
Speaker 3: seven points per game this season, two point four yards

943
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:03,840
Speaker 3: per carry on the ground. They struggle to protect the quarterback,

944
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:07,239
Speaker 3: and I would imagine a ton of negative plays for

945
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,360
Speaker 3: Yale in the backfield, just completely swallow up everything Stonehill

946
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 3: wants to do. Yale's offense is going to look a

947
00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 3: lot better this week than it has last week and

948
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:18,239
Speaker 3: actually the last two weeks. After playing two of the

949
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 3: better defenses in FCS and Dartmouth, Dartmouth and Lehigh. Yale's

950
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:24,359
Speaker 3: gonna put up forty points here. I don't think stone

951
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 3: Hill is going to keep up, so lay anything under

952
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 3: three touchdowns. Last one. This will be a fun one.

953
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 3: Montana is stepping out of conference to take on Sacred Heart.

954
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 3: I'm looking at the over. It's projected at fifty three

955
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 3: and a half. I'd play this to fifty eight and

956
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 3: a half. Montana has given up defensively thirty eight to Idaho,

957
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 3: should be thirty eight to Idaho State, thirty to Idaho,

958
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 3: twenty to Indiana State, and seventeen to Division two Central

959
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,280
Speaker 3: Washington this season, and they're now stepping out of conference

960
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 3: in a game that they should completely dominate. But understandably,

961
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 3: this is one where you really you rotate the twos

962
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 3: in on defense early because the one you really want

963
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:02,920
Speaker 3: to get is next week on Friday Night ESPN two

964
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 3: when they play Sacramento State. Sacred Heart is allowing six

965
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 3: point three yards per play this season on defense and

966
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 3: five point eight yards per carry on the ground. Montana

967
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 3: four hundred and ninety one yards of offense per game

968
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:16,719
Speaker 3: this season and they're giving up four hundred yards per

969
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 3: game on defense. Sacred Heart has seen nothing like this

970
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:23,240
Speaker 3: type of football that they're gonna see from the Montana

971
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:27,479
Speaker 3: offense on Saturday Night. The ground game is gonna gash

972
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 3: Sacred Heart. And you look at Sacred Heart. They play

973
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:32,840
Speaker 3: in the Northeastern Conference and they play a lot of

974
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 3: these teams that are slower pace, ball control, grind out

975
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:39,520
Speaker 3: the clock. They're still averaging fifty points in their games

976
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:43,320
Speaker 3: this season against these slower paced, terrible NEC offenses. This

977
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 3: one's gonna be a game that's gonna have a ton

978
00:47:45,680 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 3: of points. Montana could put up fifty and Sacred Heart

979
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:49,280
Speaker 3: will be in the twenties.

980
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 2: Before I get to my two minute drill, a plug

981
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 2: for our new Friday program, the weekend warm up from

982
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 2: BBOC Duck, and I break down everything you need to know,

983
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 2: so give us a quick plug on why you have

984
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:06,400
Speaker 2: to listen live on YouTube two pm Eastern every Friday.

985
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:08,879
Speaker 2: Duck Well, I love the live show.

986
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:11,359
Speaker 3: We engage with our fans, We welcome the live chat,

987
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 3: and we get to your questions in real time. We

988
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 3: talk about the Steam report, where we go through some

989
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 3: of the line movement that's happened. Later on in the week,

990
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 3: we cover important weather updates and games at the FBS

991
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 3: and FCS level that are going to be impacted by

992
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:27,960
Speaker 3: inclement or adverse weather conditions. It's just a fun segment

993
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:29,840
Speaker 3: to be able to talk through the changes in the

994
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 3: week of the landscape of the card, to go through

995
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 3: some of the movement. We get to cover some of

996
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 3: the FCS games that actually have lines out as those

997
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 3: lines have been posted later and later this season, so

998
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 3: we get to talk about some real numbers and not

999
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 3: just projections. And we love the fan engagement. We love

1000
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:48,040
Speaker 3: being able to connect with the fans through the live

1001
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 3: chat and answer questions in real time. It's just a

1002
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,279
Speaker 3: really fun hour long live show that we get to

1003
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 3: do that's just jam packed with information to help you

1004
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:56,400
Speaker 3: make smarter waiers.

1005
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 2: Each week, all right time to close out my two

1006
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 2: minute drill. This is going to be quick because I

1007
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 2: already gave about UNLB Boise over we mentioned Toledo. I

1008
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 2: got a fadom here and take Ken State plus twenty

1009
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 2: five and a half the Golden Flashes baby last week.

1010
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:13,360
Speaker 2: By the way, always track on the Action app because

1011
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 2: I'll put in some plays late. It was a lean

1012
00:49:15,200 --> 00:49:18,239
Speaker 2: for me on Kent's didn't log it as an official play,

1013
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 2: and then I saw the jerseys. They were wearing those

1014
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 2: throwback powder blues with the bolt helmet, looking like the

1015
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:26,920
Speaker 2: San Diego Chargers with Ladanian Tomlinson. I was like, I

1016
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:29,720
Speaker 2: gotta play it vibes, only this pushes it over the threshold.

1017
00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:33,360
Speaker 2: I'm now two and zero on Uniform Vibe plays USF

1018
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 2: or Yeah USF earlier in the season, and then Kent

1019
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 2: State on Saturday. So make sure to check in on

1020
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 2: what I'm doing over there in the app. Listen, they

1021
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 2: looked feisty as hell against Buffalo earlier in the year,

1022
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 2: three point loss. We think the Buffalo is the class

1023
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 2: of the conference, and they basically said, the hell with it,

1024
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:53,400
Speaker 2: We're shelving our best players in our paycheck games. And

1025
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:55,839
Speaker 2: then they re emerge against UMass and lay the wood

1026
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 2: forty two to six Toledo. Meanwhile, we've just gone through it.

1027
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,800
Speaker 2: They blew that three touchdown lead to Bowling Green, and

1028
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 2: are you ready for the second half drive chart from

1029
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 2: the Rocket Stuck. I'm gonna shout out Dan Rubinstein of

1030
00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 2: the Solid Verbal for this dramatic reading style of their

1031
00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 2: drive chart. Punt punt, punt, punt, punt, fumble, punt, interception,

1032
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 2: end up game. Just unfucking believable that that's how they

1033
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:24,600
Speaker 2: ended the game. Like this is a team that has

1034
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 2: a veteran quarterback in Tucker Gleason, Jason Kandal's been there forever.

1035
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 2: We have to hear all these, you know, arguments about

1036
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 2: why he's basically unfireable, like he recruits the best, they've

1037
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:37,400
Speaker 2: won so many games. Blah blah blah. I think this

1038
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:39,359
Speaker 2: guy is getting long in the tooth for this job.

1039
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:41,759
Speaker 2: I think both parties they need to just split. He

1040
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 2: needs to go somewhere else because it is not working.

1041
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:47,360
Speaker 2: And now we're going to turn around and lay almost

1042
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:51,840
Speaker 2: four touchdowns. I cannot see it. And I understand they

1043
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:54,359
Speaker 2: blew out Akron earlier this year forty five to three,

1044
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 2: So you're saying just a rinse and repeat situation. Another

1045
00:50:57,239 --> 00:51:00,200
Speaker 2: dreg in the MAC Well. Prior to that blowout of

1046
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:03,719
Speaker 2: the Zips, they hadn't beat a MAC Conference opponent by

1047
00:51:03,760 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 2: four touchdowns in twenty five games. It's just not his

1048
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:10,600
Speaker 2: m He and Kent, by the way, has way more fight.

1049
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 2: I think we've seen it. And they also have an

1050
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:15,279
Speaker 2: elite return game that can flip this game or get

1051
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 2: you one of those touchdowns that otherwise wouldn't be available.

1052
00:51:18,160 --> 00:51:20,360
Speaker 2: Durilis Clark is one of the best return men in

1053
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 2: the entire country, so he's gonna steal yardage, maybe even

1054
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:25,080
Speaker 2: steal points in this game. Give me the fight in

1055
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 2: Julian Edelman's year plus twenty five and a half, and

1056
00:51:27,840 --> 00:51:29,919
Speaker 2: I'll close out my two minute drill with this Army

1057
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:32,960
Speaker 2: at Tulane, the Green Wave laying nine and a half

1058
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 2: a salute as always to our troops. Army upset lifeless

1059
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:39,120
Speaker 2: KSE State. They scored ten points in the final three

1060
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:42,240
Speaker 2: minutes of regulation against UNT to take that thing to overtime.

1061
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 2: Then they beat the crap out of UAB and Charlotte.

1062
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 2: What that's done is I think it's made their perception

1063
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:50,799
Speaker 2: as though they're closer to the last year's team, which

1064
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 2: they are not because when you look at the underlying stats,

1065
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:57,080
Speaker 2: they've proven to be a below average offensive team this season.

1066
00:51:57,320 --> 00:51:59,360
Speaker 2: All they do is run, but they're ninety ninth and

1067
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:01,799
Speaker 2: success rate on the ground their ninety first, and explosiveness

1068
00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 2: their fortieth and havoc avoidance, which actually sounds pretty good,

1069
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:07,239
Speaker 2: but for a triple option offense, you should be a

1070
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 2: lot closer to the top ten because of the way

1071
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:11,800
Speaker 2: that you're running things. You're never passing the ball so

1072
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:14,320
Speaker 2: you can throw sacks out. To be in the forties

1073
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 2: for havoc avoidance isn't good. And they're one hundred and

1074
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:20,160
Speaker 2: seventeenth in red zone scoring, so by not being explosive,

1075
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:21,960
Speaker 2: they have to finish in the end zone when they

1076
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,279
Speaker 2: get those red zone opportunities, they're not doing it. So

1077
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:27,239
Speaker 2: I just don't see them being equipped to finish off

1078
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:29,560
Speaker 2: those drives with six or equipped to throw the ball

1079
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 2: at all on this game, and too lane By the way,

1080
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:34,720
Speaker 2: they got two extra days to prepare by playing Thursday

1081
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 2: last week. They have a revenge on their mind for

1082
00:52:37,640 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 2: this game. For those of you who have forgotten, they

1083
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:42,480
Speaker 2: went up to West Point and got pushed around on

1084
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:46,720
Speaker 2: national television, lost the American Championship Game in embarrassing fashion.

1085
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:49,800
Speaker 2: Now they're hosting rets laugh is dealing. He was the

1086
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 2: reason they pulled it out against East Carolina in the

1087
00:52:52,719 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 2: first place. I trust him with the football, and when

1088
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:57,359
Speaker 2: you're playing an offense that likes to play keep away

1089
00:52:57,400 --> 00:53:00,239
Speaker 2: like a Service Academy, this is paramount. This is a

1090
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 2: below average Army secondary, not total dog shit, but they're

1091
00:53:03,640 --> 00:53:06,839
Speaker 2: absolutely gettable with a quality quarterback like Retz left. If

1092
00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:10,480
Speaker 2: Tulane keeps the turnover margin anywhere north of minus one,

1093
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 2: I think they cover this number. So go ahead and

1094
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:15,200
Speaker 2: give me them below the key number of ten. What

1095
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:17,479
Speaker 2: are your thoughts on this Army team that, as I've said,

1096
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 2: they're stacking wins and they're competitive where you know, I'm

1097
00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:24,120
Speaker 2: a little bit surprised, but for the most part, I

1098
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:25,399
Speaker 2: think it's a bit of fool's gold.

1099
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 3: When it comes to the cadets, Yeah, I do too,

1100
00:53:28,120 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 3: and I think that you look at a coach like

1101
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:33,160
Speaker 3: Summroll at Tulane and what he's going to do to

1102
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:36,799
Speaker 3: rally the troops in this motivational revenge. But they were

1103
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:40,480
Speaker 3: embarrassed last year in the AAC championship game at Army,

1104
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:43,800
Speaker 3: and they remember that. It's not all the same players,

1105
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:46,400
Speaker 3: it's not everybody who was there, but they absolutely remember

1106
00:53:46,440 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 3: that situation. And I just look at Army, who I

1107
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:52,240
Speaker 3: think has now feasted on two of the worst teams

1108
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 3: in league play, and UAB and Charlotte. But I still

1109
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 3: don't think this team is very good. I think Army

1110
00:53:57,200 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 3: is going to struggle to make a bowl game. It's

1111
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:01,080
Speaker 3: a reason we took the regular season win. It should

1112
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:03,840
Speaker 3: be under in the summer, and this is a major

1113
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:06,600
Speaker 3: major test for them the week before they've got to

1114
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:09,680
Speaker 3: go to Air Force. Are they really focused on this one?

1115
00:54:09,719 --> 00:54:11,960
Speaker 3: Are they looking ahead at the Commander in Chief trophy

1116
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:15,360
Speaker 3: possibly being place back in their cabinet. It's like, I

1117
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:19,400
Speaker 3: just don't see a team that I think you have

1118
00:54:19,600 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 3: no explosivity. If you get behind, it's going to be

1119
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 3: really tricky to try to throw your way out of

1120
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:26,879
Speaker 3: it against that two lane defense. Two lanes a lot.

1121
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 3: I gotta admit to lanes a lot better than I

1122
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 3: thought they would be. They've overperformed expectations and they're at

1123
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:34,560
Speaker 3: home in this spot. I don't think it's enough points here,

1124
00:54:34,600 --> 00:54:36,520
Speaker 3: anything under two touchdowns. I think we're good.

1125
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:39,359
Speaker 2: So our tug of war took a big turn last

1126
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:42,000
Speaker 2: week when I finally included a Power four game. I

1127
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 2: took the big swing for the Indiana money line upset

1128
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 2: on the road in Eugene. I hit it so it

1129
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:50,719
Speaker 2: moves the ball from midfield to your twenty five. So

1130
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 2: I'm breathing down your neck almost in the red zone,

1131
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:55,839
Speaker 2: giving you the opportunity to pick the game this week.

1132
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:58,239
Speaker 2: Set the stage. What do we have? I shit, boy,

1133
00:54:58,560 --> 00:54:59,840
Speaker 2: toun hard harder.

1134
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:03,239
Speaker 3: Well, we're taking Hawaii at Colorado State, and we're going

1135
00:55:03,320 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 3: to use the line of plus or minus three, So

1136
00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:08,439
Speaker 3: I'll take minus three with Colorado State. You're taking plus

1137
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 3: three with Hawaii. And I don't have a lot of

1138
00:55:11,160 --> 00:55:13,200
Speaker 3: meat and potatoes to my argument here, but I will

1139
00:55:13,280 --> 00:55:15,959
Speaker 3: say this when it comes to Colorado State, they looked

1140
00:55:16,040 --> 00:55:19,520
Speaker 3: terrible all season, very similar to how Air Force looked

1141
00:55:19,600 --> 00:55:22,759
Speaker 3: really terrible for eight weeks and then something happened and

1142
00:55:22,880 --> 00:55:25,200
Speaker 3: they just were able to turn it on and it

1143
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:29,320
Speaker 3: was like completely different players in Colorado State uniforms. Jackson

1144
00:55:29,400 --> 00:55:32,359
Speaker 3: Brusso finally played how we saw him play the last

1145
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:35,680
Speaker 3: couple of drives against UTSA when inserted the ground game

1146
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:38,759
Speaker 3: was humming, and the running backs were running angrily. I

1147
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:42,799
Speaker 3: saw something different in the trenches, the attitude, the intensity,

1148
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:45,919
Speaker 3: the defense was flying to the football against a pretty

1149
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:48,840
Speaker 3: good Fresno State team. They were pissed off. They played

1150
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:51,640
Speaker 3: like they were embarrassed the last couple of weeks, whatever

1151
00:55:51,760 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 3: Norvell said to them that week in practice. It was

1152
00:55:55,120 --> 00:55:58,480
Speaker 3: just absolutely stunning to see what that team did from

1153
00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:02,960
Speaker 3: the jump against Colorado against Fresno State. And that is

1154
00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:05,000
Speaker 3: a team that I want to play on. In a

1155
00:56:05,120 --> 00:56:08,840
Speaker 3: situation for Hawaii where you've got road Hawaii, they're not

1156
00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:12,520
Speaker 3: as good away from the island. I still don't think

1157
00:56:12,640 --> 00:56:15,879
Speaker 3: Hawaii is that good. We saw the offense just dink

1158
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 3: and dunk their way and play plinko against Utah State.

1159
00:56:19,080 --> 00:56:22,200
Speaker 3: You know, Utah State scored with fourteen minutes left in

1160
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 3: the third quarter, and then they didn't score again. They

1161
00:56:24,960 --> 00:56:27,840
Speaker 3: made some mistakes and some turnovers and stopped on downs

1162
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:30,319
Speaker 3: in the red zone and kind of gave that one away.

1163
00:56:30,360 --> 00:56:32,000
Speaker 3: At three o'clock in the morning when I was up

1164
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:35,239
Speaker 3: watching it, it was pretty frustrating. But I still do

1165
00:56:35,440 --> 00:56:37,680
Speaker 3: not think Hawaii is very good. And if we get

1166
00:56:37,719 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 3: that same Colorado State attitude, intensity, the laser focus on

1167
00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:44,080
Speaker 3: what they need to do. This could be major, major

1168
00:56:44,120 --> 00:56:46,759
Speaker 3: trouble for the bus. So I'll take Colorado State minus three.

1169
00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 2: All right, I'll start here. I think it's completely fair say,

1170
00:56:49,760 --> 00:56:52,040
Speaker 2: do we have any idea who this Colorado State team is?

1171
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 2: Because they scored sixteen points against UTSA and had awful

1172
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:59,440
Speaker 2: in game coaching. They mustered three points against Wazoo, or

1173
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:02,680
Speaker 2: they the reserve resurgent rams that got all the breaks

1174
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:04,920
Speaker 2: against Fresno, because I think it bears mentioning when you

1175
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:07,360
Speaker 2: dig into the box score, they get a scoop and score.

1176
00:57:07,480 --> 00:57:09,160
Speaker 2: They pick off Warner in the end zone, and then

1177
00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:11,239
Speaker 2: they have another pick that sets up a short field

1178
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 2: touchdown where they scored from the seven Fresno four hundred

1179
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 2: and sixty nine total yards Colorado State three hundred and

1180
00:57:16,560 --> 00:57:19,400
Speaker 2: thirty four total yards, and they win by twenty eight points.

1181
00:57:19,480 --> 00:57:22,480
Speaker 2: So I'm just going to put that out there for starters. Secondly,

1182
00:57:22,640 --> 00:57:25,360
Speaker 2: the run and shoot needs dogs out on the perimeter.

1183
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:28,480
Speaker 2: It's not just a we got a highly talented wide

1184
00:57:28,520 --> 00:57:30,760
Speaker 2: receiver one and then a bunch of decoys. They need

1185
00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:32,680
Speaker 2: guys who can stretch the field. They need guys who

1186
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:35,800
Speaker 2: can make people miss in the quick game, and they

1187
00:57:35,880 --> 00:57:38,760
Speaker 2: had their top three guys. Finally, when you look at it, Ashlock,

1188
00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 2: Jackson and Senecal with a full deck for the first

1189
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 2: time since week one. What happens? The trio goes for

1190
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 2: twenty one receptions, two hundred and eighty seven yards and

1191
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:50,120
Speaker 2: three tds. Aldijdo goes nuclear against Utah States finishes with

1192
00:57:50,240 --> 00:57:52,520
Speaker 2: four thirteen through the air. Now I get that this

1193
00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:55,280
Speaker 2: is a roadie. This is Hawaii on the main line mainland,

1194
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:58,080
Speaker 2: so it's immediately one of those alarm bells going off

1195
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:01,120
Speaker 2: for situational betters. But they just did this flight to Denver.

1196
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 2: They just go north from the airport for an hour

1197
00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:05,920
Speaker 2: instead of south when they went to Air Force, and

1198
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:09,120
Speaker 2: they are able to push around the falcons on their

1199
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 2: home turf, so they have that familiarity. The confidence is building,

1200
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 2: and when you go to Air Force and score forty

1201
00:58:14,920 --> 00:58:17,440
Speaker 2: four in a blowout win, I feel like it's very

1202
00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 2: easy psychologically to say to yourself, why not do it again,

1203
00:58:20,840 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 2: Let's see if we can win another shootout, because I

1204
00:58:23,200 --> 00:58:25,920
Speaker 2: don't trust this Colorado State defense. If they're not getting turnovers,

1205
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:27,720
Speaker 2: you can throw on them, you can run on them

1206
00:58:28,000 --> 00:58:30,480
Speaker 2: and they cannot rush the passer to save their life.

1207
00:58:30,560 --> 00:58:33,400
Speaker 2: They're one hundred and thirty second in pass rush per PFF.

1208
00:58:33,840 --> 00:58:37,000
Speaker 2: You can absolutely rough up Aldihado, but if you give

1209
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:39,880
Speaker 2: them time to cook, I think it's going to be

1210
00:58:40,000 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 2: lights out for this RAMS defense. And just look at

1211
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:45,040
Speaker 2: his numbers blitz versus non blitz this season. When you

1212
00:58:45,200 --> 00:58:47,200
Speaker 2: drop seven or more and make him throw into tight

1213
00:58:47,280 --> 00:58:49,000
Speaker 2: windows and you can get into his face with three

1214
00:58:49,080 --> 00:58:53,000
Speaker 2: or four rushers, his PFF grade is sixty two with

1215
00:58:53,320 --> 00:58:56,480
Speaker 2: six passing touchdowns and four interceptions. That's when he's not

1216
00:58:56,600 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 2: facing the blitz. But when you're forced to send five

1217
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 2: or more all of a sudden, he sees cover one,

1218
00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:04,840
Speaker 2: he sees cover zero, He certainly sees man demand concepts

1219
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:07,680
Speaker 2: on the outside. His PFF grade shoots up to seventy

1220
00:59:07,720 --> 00:59:10,120
Speaker 2: eight out of one hundred three tds one pick four

1221
00:59:10,160 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 2: to one big time throw to turnover worthy throw ratio.

1222
00:59:13,360 --> 00:59:15,760
Speaker 2: So I just see this as an opportunity for Hawaii

1223
00:59:15,880 --> 00:59:19,440
Speaker 2: with a full deck brimming with confidence to get to

1224
00:59:19,560 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 2: this Bowl. Eligibility you saw it with you can just

1225
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 2: see it with the body language. Timmy Chang is like

1226
00:59:25,160 --> 00:59:27,320
Speaker 2: high five and guys coming off the field that are

1227
00:59:27,400 --> 00:59:30,320
Speaker 2: laying the wood defensively. The passing game is clicking in

1228
00:59:30,400 --> 00:59:32,560
Speaker 2: the way that he is envisioned when he put the

1229
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:34,920
Speaker 2: lay on at the first press conference. This is what

1230
00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:37,200
Speaker 2: he wanted to bring back to the island, and they

1231
00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:40,520
Speaker 2: have it. And as I said, opportunity for them to

1232
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:42,720
Speaker 2: repeat what they did not that long ago in the

1233
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:45,000
Speaker 2: state of Colorado. I like it. I think it's going

1234
00:59:45,080 --> 00:59:47,160
Speaker 2: to happen. I'll gladly take the three points here that

1235
00:59:47,240 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 2: will do it. For today's episode of The Group of

1236
00:59:48,800 --> 00:59:51,720
Speaker 2: Five Deep Dive under the Big Bets on Campus Banner

1237
00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:54,240
Speaker 2: presented by DraftKings. Thank you so much for tuning in listening.

1238
00:59:54,400 --> 00:59:56,600
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1239
00:59:56,600 --> 00:59:58,440
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1240
00:59:58,600 --> 01:00:00,800
Speaker 2: wherever you listen to the podcast. Next episode, we'll pick

1241
01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:04,280
Speaker 2: out another five star review and give out a Future's ticket.

1242
01:00:04,480 --> 01:00:06,640
Speaker 2: Whether you want to go for the Playoff, the Heisman,

1243
01:00:06,760 --> 01:00:09,560
Speaker 2: any particular reward or look ahead game, We're happy to

1244
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:11,960
Speaker 2: file that for you. Hit me up on X and

1245
01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 2: we'll go ahead and get you your prize. Duck paid

1246
01:00:13,760 --> 01:00:15,800
Speaker 2: out the last one. I am up for the next

1247
01:00:16,160 --> 01:00:17,720
Speaker 2: Remember if you'd like to tell some of the best

1248
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:19,960
Speaker 2: that you heard in today's episode. Look for the quick

1249
01:00:20,000 --> 01:00:22,320
Speaker 2: slip links in the episode description. You can also go

1250
01:00:22,320 --> 01:00:26,040
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01:00:26,160 --> 01:00:29,440
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Speaker 2: visibility for our brand. Check out our guys Stucky on

1255
01:00:38,040 --> 01:00:41,240
Speaker 2: the Favorites every Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday, and as always,

1256
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:43,480
Speaker 2: catch him and Colin as they break down the full

1257
01:00:43,560 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 2: slate on Thursdays, going from the trash segments all the

1258
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:48,480
Speaker 2: way up to the marquee matchups we talked about the

1259
01:00:48,480 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 2: weekend warm up two pm on YouTube at the BBOC channel.

1260
01:00:53,240 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 2: You can go ahead and give us questions live. We're

1261
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:56,720
Speaker 2: going to answer them for you, and then the live

1262
01:00:56,760 --> 01:01:00,800
Speaker 2: show on Saturday with Duck Stuck, Colin Wilson, and myself.

1263
01:01:00,880 --> 01:01:02,720
Speaker 2: That's it for us. Thanks for listening to Big Bets

1264
01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:06,560
Speaker 2: on Campus podcast. There's always best of luck, Call your bets.

1265
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:28,760
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1266
01:01:28,840 --> 01:01:31,600
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1267
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