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Speaker 1: What's up, guys. How are you welcome into a November

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Speaker 1: first episode of the Daily Juice podcast. Happy Friday. My

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Speaker 1: name is Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me because

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Speaker 1: all of my socials at Sports Talk met and I

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Speaker 1: am taping this a little early because I have to

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Speaker 1: get on a plane first thing in the morning. I

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Speaker 1: am headed to the Breeders Cup. I have never gone

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Speaker 1: to the Breeders Cup before, but I am doing my

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Speaker 1: other show from del mar So getting on a plane

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Speaker 1: going to San Diego. If some of you guys like

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Speaker 1: to bet horses, I'll put some of the bit I'll

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Speaker 1: put bet slips bet I'm gonna make at the window

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Speaker 1: today on the Discord channel, bettingpros dot Com slash Chat.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how to make bets official on for

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Speaker 1: The Juice when it comes to horse racing because it's paramutual,

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Speaker 1: so the numbers are gonna shift and change and move

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Speaker 1: all over the place. So like the number right now

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Speaker 1: won't be the number in the morning, won't be the

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Speaker 1: number at post time, so it's all over the place.

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Speaker 1: If you're looking for horses to pay attention to, American

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Speaker 1: Bikini is a horse. We keep on getting told that

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Speaker 1: the Japanese horses, the Japanese horses, and that's a horse

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Speaker 1: that's going to do really well in the Juvenile Philly race.

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Speaker 1: That will happen today. There's a couple of horses in

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Speaker 1: the Classic. I've written all this stuff down, so let's

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Speaker 1: see what else I'm from a classic horse perspective. Oh,

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Speaker 1: Eroco c is one, Otaman Shenko is another, Matisse is another.

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Speaker 1: If you're looking at that. So I'll give you in

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Speaker 1: the in the Classic, Arthur's Ride is a horse on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: But it's Friday and Saturday. Okay, So I've been interviewing

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Speaker 1: horse people all week. On my other show, I'm headed

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Speaker 1: to the Breeders Cup. I'm headed to del Mar so

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Speaker 1: we're taping this early. It was not a good day yesterday.

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Speaker 1: We got wiped out unfortunately. Of the three units we

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Speaker 1: won on Thursday, we gave it all back on are

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday. We gave it all back on Thursday, just

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Speaker 1: like we were a couple of plays short of an

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Speaker 1: awesome night. Texans. They covered the eight, but the game

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Speaker 1: goes under because they couldn't score a touchdown in the

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Speaker 1: last minute. If they score a touchdown there in the

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Speaker 1: last minute the game, we fall thirty eight, and we

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Speaker 1: catched that bet, and really the whole day is different

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Speaker 1: if that happens. Two lane. First quarter was dead slow,

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Speaker 1: three nothing, and then they scored thirty four points. Like

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Speaker 1: we just wound up a field goal shy of getting there.

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Speaker 1: We missed two field goals for the Texans. By the way,

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Speaker 1: the Texans hit both those field goals, we equally we

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Speaker 1: go over. So it's just one of those nights where

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Speaker 1: just bad things happened. That's betting, man, Just that just happened.

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Speaker 1: Conklin hit for us mixing. The worst bed of the

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Speaker 1: night was Mixing. He had over eighty and again eighty

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Speaker 1: five yards on the first half. Huge Hall had eleven

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Speaker 1: yards receiving, he went under. They again did not use him,

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Speaker 1: but they won the game. So that's betting. I mean

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Speaker 1: the process. This is an awesome Look. If you guys

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Speaker 1: haven't gone and read this book, it's a great book.

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Speaker 1: It's called Thinking in Bets by any Duke. It changed

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Speaker 1: my philosophy on how to gamble entirely. Okay, a lot

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Speaker 1: of you are like, why don't you get upset or

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Speaker 1: why do you keep on firing and why do you

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Speaker 1: do this podcast all the different nuances. Had some guy

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Speaker 1: come in here and tell me that why didn't I

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Speaker 1: tell him to lay minus one seventy five on the

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Speaker 1: two lane team total? When I told you that thirty four,

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Speaker 1: you know what, We're going to need a field goal

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Speaker 1: because thirty five is a weird number. So we need

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Speaker 1: a field goal to get there. And we almost got there,

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Speaker 1: and they're on the ten yard line with thirty seconds

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Speaker 1: to go. They took a knee like they should have,

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Speaker 1: but if they had busted a play and ran in

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Speaker 1: for a touchdown, we would have covered. So like we

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Speaker 1: were right there. Don't judge your bets on the outcome, Okay,

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Speaker 1: judge your process. Was your process right? My process was right.

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Speaker 1: The two lane team total, that process was right, just

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Speaker 1: one up a little bit short. The same game teaser

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Speaker 1: process was right, just it. You know, if id gone over,

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Speaker 1: if I had taken the under, teased it up and

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Speaker 1: gone under, that would have been much easier. But two

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Speaker 1: missed field goals, you can't handicap that. Fairbrand's been tremendous,

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Speaker 1: great kicker for the Texans. So if he kicks both

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Speaker 1: those field goals, we get six points. We hit. So

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Speaker 1: the process was okay. Night was bad. Process was good.

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Speaker 1: I'm okay. New month, new day. Let's start clean. Let's

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Speaker 1: get rid of October. Let's have a winning month of November.

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Speaker 1: We won in September, we lost in October. Let's see

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Speaker 1: what happens in November. Let's keep it rolling and keep

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Speaker 1: com slash promos. All right, let's start with Boise State

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Speaker 1: tonight at home. Boise at Home has been a wrecking ball,

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Speaker 1: like they just kill people at home. They're laying twenty

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Speaker 1: three and a half points. I know it's a big number.

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Speaker 1: I don't normally lay the step in number. Normally I

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Speaker 1: lay money line and I don't want the agony. I

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Speaker 1: haven't laid points in a long period of time. Okay,

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Speaker 1: if you guys are watching the podcast, I've been betting

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Speaker 1: a lot of money lines. I haven't been wanting to

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Speaker 1: play around here in betting numbers, but we lost yesterday

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Speaker 1: and I want to limit the juice exposure a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to lay a money line price here. However,

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Speaker 1: Boise at Home is two to one. At home against

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Speaker 1: Portland State, they were laying forty three points. They won

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Speaker 1: by forty two. Like, okay, they didn't cover that. In

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Speaker 1: the next two home games again Washington State, they laid

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Speaker 1: six and a half and they won by twenty one.

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Speaker 1: Against Utah State, they laid twenty eight. They won by

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Speaker 1: thirty two. These are stat padding games for gent they're

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Speaker 1: running back. It's a way of putting up big numbers.

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Speaker 1: They want him to win the Heisman, if nothing less,

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Speaker 1: they want him to be a Heisman finalist. They need

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Speaker 1: big numbers, They need big, big scoring numbers, long touchdown runs.

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Speaker 1: San Diego State has covered four straight games. I get it.

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Speaker 1: They went to Washington Or they were home. Against Washington State,

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Speaker 1: they caught seventeen. They lost by three. They went to Wyoming,

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Speaker 1: they are a plus one and a half favorite. They

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Speaker 1: won by three. Against Hawaii at home they were laying

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Speaker 1: one and a half, they won by three. And against

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Speaker 1: Central Michigan they were catching two and they lost by one.

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Speaker 1: On the road. The numbers have been pretty small. Against

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Speaker 1: Cal on the road, they were catching eighteen and a

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Speaker 1: half and they lost by twenty one points. They didn't cover.

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Speaker 1: Central was catching two, they lost by one, And Wyoming

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Speaker 1: was catching one and a half and they won by three.

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Speaker 1: Different animal here when it comes to who they're playing with,

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Speaker 1: Boise State, like, you're gonna have a real tough time

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Speaker 1: stopping Boise State tonight if you're San Diego State. In particular,

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Speaker 1: they give up four point three yards per rush. That's

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Speaker 1: outside the top seventy five defensively in college football. That's

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Speaker 1: brutal against the number one rushing offense in the college

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Speaker 1: football world. With Boise at six point nine rushing yards

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Speaker 1: per attempt. They run for two hundred and sixty three

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Speaker 1: yards per game. That's fourth best in the country. One

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Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five yards given up per game for

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Speaker 1: San Diego State. That's awful. That's nearly outside the one

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Speaker 1: top one hundred of the country. This is bad, bad, Okay.

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Speaker 1: I don't think San Diego State's gonna hang around here.

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Speaker 1: I think Boise State's defense I watched it in person.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna shut down San Diego State. I don't think

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Speaker 1: Santego State scores very much like much like we talked

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Speaker 1: about last night with Charlotte shot didn't score. That's why

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Speaker 1: I didn't want to lay the over under hitting that game.

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Speaker 1: I wasn't bad in that game. I hit the under

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Speaker 1: in that game. I laid fourteen and a half in

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Speaker 1: that game. I just unfortunately the team total was my

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Speaker 1: favorite bet. That didn't matter. That didn't hit. The other

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Speaker 1: two did. But in this is like the same thing,

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Speaker 1: like the under in this game, it's fifty seven points

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Speaker 1: like the under Boise State team total over and I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna lay the twenty three and a half points. I

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Speaker 1: think Boise destroys them tonight, monster win for Boise. I

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Speaker 1: think this is just a name your number type of

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Speaker 1: game for Boise State. And you know, at home they've

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Speaker 1: scored sixty two to forty five and fifty six points.

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Speaker 1: What are they scored tonight? Probably fifty tonight? How many

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Speaker 1: points does San Diego State score? Twenty? Okay to fifty

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Speaker 1: to thirty type of final. I'll lay the big number.

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Speaker 1: I lay the twenty three and a half points with

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Speaker 1: Boise State for one point one units. Next, bet the

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Speaker 1: Nets against the Bulls. I mean, sorry, I guess the Hornets. Rather,

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Speaker 1: the Nets haven't been that bad this year, which is

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Speaker 1: really kind of you. It is the bull Sorry, excuse me,

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Speaker 1: it is the Bulls. The Nets haven't been that bad

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Speaker 1: against the number, and they've actually been pretty good. They're

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Speaker 1: laying two points at home Brooklyn against Chicago. No longso

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Speaker 1: ball for Chicago. He's out with a wrist injury. But

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Speaker 1: Chicago is three and two against the number. But the

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Speaker 1: Brooklyn Nets are four and one against the number, and

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Speaker 1: they're two and zero against the number at home. They

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Speaker 1: beat that. They covered against Denver as five and a

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Speaker 1: half point dogs. We were on them in that game,

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Speaker 1: and then they they won outright against Milwaukee by thirteen points.

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Speaker 1: That was a bigger win over Milwaukee than the Celtics

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Speaker 1: had over Milwaukee. They came back against Memphis. They were

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Speaker 1: catching eleven and a half points. They won the game

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Speaker 1: outrights one nineteen to one oh six. So while they're

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Speaker 1: two and three on the year at home, they've been

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Speaker 1: pretty good again. The Bulls aren't awful on the road

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Speaker 1: for Chicago this year. They were five point dogs against Memphis.

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Speaker 1: They won the game outright. They were at Milwaukee, they

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Speaker 1: were catching nine and a half. They lost the game

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Speaker 1: by nine, so they covered on the hook there. And

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Speaker 1: on the road against New Orleans they were laying five points.

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Speaker 1: So sorry, they're catching five points and they lost outright.

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Speaker 1: They're two and one ats on the road. They're two

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Speaker 1: and one straight up on the road as well, so

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Speaker 1: this is the team is not bad. But Lonzo Ball

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Speaker 1: being out, they didn't miss a beat with them. They've

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Speaker 1: covered two of their three last four games, including Dogs

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Speaker 1: against Orlando and Dogs at Memphis, covering both of them,

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Speaker 1: they didn't win. They yeah, the only game out right

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Speaker 1: won both games outright, but they covered as well as

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Speaker 1: five and five and a half point dogs. This number

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Speaker 1: is two. I'm gonna lay it. You can do money

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Speaker 1: line if you want. I don't hate that at all,

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Speaker 1: but it gets to be one basket. I'm not really

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Speaker 1: against just taking the two points and just saying okay,

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Speaker 1: and my guess we can push on it. But if

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Speaker 1: they're gonna win, I don't hate it, and methifical they lose.

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Speaker 1: I'm not really in love with coming in and laying

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Speaker 1: the number. We're gonna have to lay from a moneyline perspective,

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Speaker 1: if you want, if you want to go ahead and

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Speaker 1: get this booklet's at home. It's minus one thirty, which

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Speaker 1: isn't horrible on the money line. You want to lay that,

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Speaker 1: but let's just lay the two points and take it

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Speaker 1: minus two points here for the Nets at one point

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Speaker 1: one units. Chances are if the Nets cover this, they

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Speaker 1: win the game. If not, they lose the game outright,

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Speaker 1: and then the Celtics are up against to show a Hornets.

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Speaker 1: Charlotte has given up this year one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 1: three points. One hundred and fourteen points, one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty five points, and one hundred and five points. So far,

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Speaker 1: they have the second worst defensive rating in the NBA.

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Speaker 1: Only the Raptors have a worse defensive rating. We were

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Speaker 1: on the Celtics team total in their last game. Yes,

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Speaker 1: it needed a storming at the end of the game

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Speaker 1: to get there and then to get to overtime, and

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Speaker 1: then it flew over the team total. I know, Celtics.

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Speaker 1: This number is like man alive. This is this is

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Speaker 1: a lot of points in terms of where the Celtics

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Speaker 1: I mean, really anybody but points per game. Boston is

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Speaker 1: the number one team in the NBA points per game still,

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Speaker 1: even with the kind of slower start, averaging one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty five point eight points per game. On the road,

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Speaker 1: they are scoring one hundred and twenty six points per

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Speaker 1: game on average. Yes, the game against India needed overtime,

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Speaker 1: that was one thirty five, but in the four other

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Speaker 1: games they scored one nineteen, one twenty four, one twenty two,

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Speaker 1: and one thirty two. Just the same. Bet Okay, We're

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Speaker 1: gonna bet it until until the breaks fall off. With

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Speaker 1: this Celtics team total over Celtics team total we're gonna

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Speaker 1: drop over one twenty three and a half at minus

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Speaker 1: one ten. Yes that's high. Yes it could be a

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Speaker 1: little bit sweaty. Yes it could be one twenty five,

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Speaker 1: one twenty six, one twenty seven. I don't think they

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Speaker 1: don't fly over this. But Boston offensively has not been

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Speaker 1: playing well and Charlotte stinks at defense. This is exactly

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Speaker 1: the type of game that Boston needs to get right

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Speaker 1: after their loss to the Charlotte to the Indiana Pacers.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna go ahead and take Celtics team total over

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Speaker 1: one twenty three and a half. Okay, So for US

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Speaker 1: three bets, two sports, one point one units down on

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Speaker 1: all of them, three point three units in play here

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Speaker 1: on a Friday, Boise State minus twenty three and a

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Speaker 1: half in college football for one point one units, NETS

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Speaker 1: laying two at home against the Chuggle Bulls for one

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Speaker 1: point one units, and the Celtics team total on the

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Speaker 1: road against Charlotte one point one, and it's to go

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Speaker 1: over one twenty three and a half. If you want

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Speaker 1: to follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt, you

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Speaker 1: going to see a lot of stuff Instagram as well.

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Speaker 1: Same handle from the Briers Cup from Del Mar I've

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Speaker 1: never been. I can't wait and get on a plane

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Speaker 1: here in about ten hours and heading on over there.

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Speaker 1: I will take the podcast tomorrow night. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I may tape the podcast from del Mar tomorrow. I

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Speaker 1: really might do that. The backdrop is so beautiful. I

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Speaker 1: might tape the podcast from del Mar tomorrow. In fact,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna do that. I'm gonna take the podcast from

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Speaker 1: del More tomorrow, so Saturday's podcast will be pretty, the

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Speaker 1: backdrop will be nice. We'll be in San Diego at

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Speaker 1: one of the gorgeous, most gorgeous tracks you'll ever see.

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Speaker 1: Mine's Matt Parol. Follow me us all socials at Sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt every morning. It is the Deal Juice podcast,

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Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings