1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,520 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Mark mass Show. 2 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:05,400 Speaker 1: We're always talking about the decentralized revolution, talking about the 3 00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: way the world is changing, of course through the lens 4 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 1: of politics, finance, and technology. That technology is bitcoin, the 5 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: decentralized technology that's changing the world. And you know, I 6 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: like to bring you some different educations to see the 7 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:19,919 Speaker 1: world differently, some late breaking news headlines and of course 8 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 1: some guests so you can get some different perspectives and 9 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:24,319 Speaker 1: just hearing from me. And that's what I got for 10 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: you right now. I am joined by Ansel Linder. He's 11 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: the host of Bitcoin and Market. It's the co host 12 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 1: of the fed Watch with Bitcoin magazine, and man, he 13 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 1: is a wealth of information. I've been on his show before. 14 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 1: I'm so happy to have him on. Ansel, thanks so 15 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 1: much for joining me. 16 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 2: Thanks Mark, looking forward to the conversation. 17 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 1: Yeah, man, you know, I love talking to you, and 18 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: I love seeing your research, you know, and I love 19 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 1: talking about the macro picture and what's going on, you know, 20 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 1: sort of speculating what's happening and what that all means, 21 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: so to speak. And you know, I know that you 22 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: had just recently put out a report, so let's just 23 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: just jump right into that. And you had talked about 24 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 1: some predictions for twenty twenty four and some cycles, some 25 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 1: market cycles. Now I know that you wrote this, was 26 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: it maybe about a month ago? I don't know, a 27 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:16,199 Speaker 1: few weeks ago. Maybe there's probably been a lot that's 28 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: changed in this last week. Things The markets are just like, 29 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 1: are just really moving really fast, pretty valatile. Right now, 30 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: let's take into some of that. People love predictions. So 31 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: when did you write that report, first of all, and 32 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:32,559 Speaker 1: how much has changed since then? And is it going 33 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 1: along with what you thought or is it different, faster 34 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 1: or whatever. 35 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 2: Well, I think you might be talking about the first 36 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,679 Speaker 2: piece that I wrote for the bm pro bitcoin magazine 37 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 2: prow that was about three weeks ago. Three weeks yeah, 38 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 2: So it's my thesis is very different from most people. 39 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 2: The big thing I'm trying to build out right now 40 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 2: is the difference between inflation and recession. And in my mind, 41 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 2: if we have higher inflation, that precludes having a recession 42 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 2: because higher inflation means we have growth and spending in 43 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:13,239 Speaker 2: the economy, which wouldn't be recessionary. So if I've been 44 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 2: calling transitory inflation for a long time and we have 45 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 2: slowing inflation, most people are talking about recession, so I'm 46 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 2: leaning towards the recession route. So now that I have 47 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 2: that kind of general framework. 48 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: I think, so let me, let me, let me try 49 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: to let me, let me try to extend. I understand. 50 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 1: So if we have inflation, then we wouldn't have recession. 51 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 1: And the reason why is because if we have inflation, 52 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: So let's say that I sell just sort of one. 53 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,799 Speaker 1: If I sell ten iPhones at one thousand dollars, then 54 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: inflation pushes them up to two thousand. I still sell 55 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 1: ten iPhones now it's two thousand. So technically the we're 56 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 1: not in a recession because the economy is growing, right, 57 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 1: That's correct. 58 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 2: And the way I define inflation is money printing, and 59 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 2: so it for money printing, you have to have an 60 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 2: increase in credit, and you only get an increase in 61 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 2: credit when you have an increase in economic activity. So 62 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,359 Speaker 2: they're mutually exclusive. You can't both have a slowdown and 63 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 2: a speeding up in the economy. 64 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: Well, I don't know if that's necessarily I don't want 65 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:14,640 Speaker 1: to say that's not right. Let's just dig in that 66 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 1: for a second. So let's just say, let's just say, hypothetically, 67 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 1: I sell ten iPhones for one thousand dollars, but with inflation, 68 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 1: the price goes up to two thousand. But now I 69 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 1: only sell eight, so there's less economic activity, less goods 70 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 1: being sold, but the gross value the GDP of that 71 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 1: number went up. 72 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that is a hypothetical, But we have to 73 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 2: get from A to B, and so to get from 74 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 2: A to B, you have to have actual money printing 75 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 2: or you know, an expansion in the economy. So it's 76 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 2: it is a hypothetical, and I agree with your hypothetical 77 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 2: if that is the case, But the problem. 78 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 1: Wouldn't we see that being the case? So like, for example, 79 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 1: like real estate sales. Right the price of real estate's 80 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 1: up fifty percent, so we're not seeing more homes sold 81 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: right now, but it's in real estate is probably a 82 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: bad example. But the price the new iPhone did just 83 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: come out, right, and it's a lot more expensive than 84 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: it was before. So then yes, you know, they could 85 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,119 Speaker 1: sell less iPhones and still produce more revenue. 86 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, and that also brings up another part of my 87 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 2: theory thesis, I guess macro thesis is that you can 88 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 2: have deflation and inflation and they won't necessarily cause the 89 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 2: prices to move in the direction you think. So if 90 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 2: we have iPhone that's more expensive right now, it could 91 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 2: be because supply chains are not at their most efficient, right, 92 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:36,280 Speaker 2: and so that's a deflationary force, which causes prices to rise. 93 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 2: So you can you can have deflation that causes prices 94 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 2: to rise, actually, and inflation that causes prices to fall, 95 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 2: so you can have credit creation out there, you know, 96 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:47,920 Speaker 2: net credit creation in the economy. People will seek out 97 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 2: how more efficient supply chains, more efficient sources of raw materials, 98 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 2: more efficient labor, and prices will fall even though money 99 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 2: is being printed, the net money is going up. So 100 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 2: it's it's very important. And when we talk about inflation 101 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 2: and deflation to get away from talking about price movements. 102 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I agree. I love that you set that 103 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: in the very beginning because I agree with one hundredercent 104 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: on that inflation is when the money supply increases. Like 105 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 1: a balloon, we add volume of air, we increase, we 106 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 1: inflate the balloon, and similar we increase the currency units, 107 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: we inflate the money supply as well. What happens with 108 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 1: prices is the result of inflating the money supply, right, 109 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 1: That's like the Austrian definition of that is that kind 110 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 1: of how you see it. 111 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, Misus said that money printing or increasing the money 112 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,600 Speaker 2: supply will inevitably lead to higher prices, but he didn't 113 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 2: necessarily detail out exactly how that happens. It might take 114 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 2: a couple of years. You might have some deflationary forces first, 115 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:49,599 Speaker 2: then inflationary forces. But he definitely he and Rothbart in 116 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,600 Speaker 2: Austria is they described it as money supply. That's how 117 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 2: I look at it as well. 118 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, and as I do as well, right, and so 119 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 1: over time it doesn't happen right away to your point. Right, 120 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 1: over time there's the equilibrium that's found, and so that 121 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:09,039 Speaker 1: increased money supply will push prices up, right, And you 122 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 1: could argue, I've seen Michael Saylor argue that, well, actually 123 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: government policies are inflationary as well. So a government policy 124 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:18,359 Speaker 1: could be restrictive, which then caused the business cost to 125 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 1: go up, which then causes prices to go up. But 126 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 1: if I look at that under the Austrian lens, well 127 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 1: then that still evens out because now that the cost 128 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 1: went up, then I have to spend less in the 129 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:32,919 Speaker 1: economy somewhere else, and so that will eventually even itself 130 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:37,920 Speaker 1: out if no new currency units were added, I think yes. 131 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,919 Speaker 2: And also prices could go up where profits could go down. 132 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 2: So government regulation it could either result in prices going 133 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 2: up like you say, or pinching profits, and those companies 134 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 2: now not being able to service their debt or not 135 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 2: being able to grow and maybe even go out of business. 136 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 2: So those are deflationary forces as well. 137 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think it's important to understand just I 138 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 1: want to hit this point real quick and then we'll 139 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 1: jump back into your thesis. But trying to measure inflation 140 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 1: as the money supply increase makes sense because we can 141 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 1: measure that. Trying to measure inflation as prices going up 142 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: is ridiculous because it affects all of us differently. So, 143 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 1: just in that example I gave, which is if government 144 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: regulations push the costs up, well, then we spend less 145 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: somewhere else, we can have inflation somewhere in deflation somewhere else. 146 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 1: And so then what am I buying? What are you buying? 147 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: And so it affects us all differently. It's pretty hard 148 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: to measure. But so going back to this, so then 149 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: you're saying, so jump back to your thesis you're thinking 150 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 1: that because we're going to continue to have inflation, we 151 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 1: won't have a recession. 152 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 2: No, I think we will have recession. I think we're 153 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 2: going back into deflation the overall kind of if even 154 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 2: from a further you know, another higher view of my 155 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 2: theory is that with credit based money, we're at the 156 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 2: end of a long credit cycle, kind of like a 157 00:07:56,320 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 2: Ray Dalio thesis, where if you know, we're going into 158 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 2: the bust cycle. We had seventy five years of expansionary 159 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 2: credit and now we're going on the downside of that. 160 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 2: So and I don't think we can get out of 161 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 2: that by you know, you can't get out of a 162 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 2: debt problem by adding more debt. So the end of 163 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 2: this is deflation of some sort or another. And that's 164 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 2: not very popular in bitcoin's bitcoin land, because obviously bitcoin 165 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 2: is an inflation hedge, but it's also a deflation hedge 166 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 2: like gold is. So there's counterparty risk when you're talking 167 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 2: about the credit system, and people will flee to safe 168 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 2: and liquid assets. Gold will benefit, so will bitcoin, and 169 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 2: bitcoin has obviously a lot more room to grow. So 170 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 2: that's my general theory. 171 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 1: Wow, there's a lot to dig into there. Well, the 172 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: first thing that I think about, and I always remind 173 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:48,960 Speaker 1: my audience anytime I'm speaking at a conference or run 174 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: a panel, something I always I just kind of throw 175 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 1: this out. Is like the first question that you as 176 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 1: a listener need to understand is over what time frame? 177 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 1: Because like I could be saying bonds are the worst investment, 178 00:08:57,960 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 1: you could see to say bonds are the best investment, 179 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: and we seem like we're disagreeing, but we might actually agree. 180 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: We're just thinking of different timeframes. So I want to 181 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 1: talk more about the timeframe of that, and then I 182 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:11,239 Speaker 1: want to talk about the two types of bus, inflationary 183 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: bus and deflationary bust. But I gotta take a very 184 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:15,319 Speaker 1: quick break. If you just tune in, you're listening to 185 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: the Mark Mass Show, and I am sitting down with 186 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: Ansel Linder. He's the host of Bitcoin and Markets and 187 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 1: the coast of fed Watch, and we're talking about his 188 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:25,680 Speaker 1: report and predictions for twenty twenty four. So if you 189 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: want to know what's coming up, then you want to 190 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 1: be paying attention. But I gotta take a very quick break, 191 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 1: So don't go away. I'll be right back, all right, 192 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:33,079 Speaker 1: Welcome back. If you're just tune in and you're listening 193 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 1: to the Mark Moss Show. I'm sitting down with Ansel Lender. 194 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 1: He's the host of Bitcoin and Markets and the co 195 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,680 Speaker 1: host of fed Watch, and we're talking about his recent 196 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 1: report a few weeks ago, talking about predictions for twenty 197 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: twenty four in cycles and so and so. We were 198 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: talking about, you know, your sort of prediction in your 199 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: report and talking about sort of this deflationary crash because 200 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 1: you can't solve a debt crisis more debt. I'm curious 201 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 1: what time frame you're thinking about this, and you know, 202 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: not trying to pick a date in a month, so 203 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 1: to speak, but like is this like months, is this 204 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: year's or how do you see this sort of like 205 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 1: playing out in that scenario? Like do you think if 206 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 1: you think right now, like inflation has peaked like nine 207 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,320 Speaker 1: point one was the peak last year and it's only 208 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:16,719 Speaker 1: going down from there, is it going to continue to 209 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 1: have waves it will go higher before it goes lower 210 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:20,719 Speaker 1: or kind of how you thinking through that? Well? 211 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 2: I think going back to our last segment there, I 212 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 2: think if you define inflation by money printing, I think 213 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 2: the peak is in. If you define it by CPI 214 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 2: I think we could have some waves of higher CPI 215 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 2: not much higher. You know, maybe we hit five percent again, 216 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 2: but I think the overall trend is down. And yeah, 217 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,080 Speaker 2: you never want to pick a time and a price 218 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 2: on things, but I really think that the kind of 219 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 2: stars are aligning to be a repeat of twenty nineteen 220 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four. So in twenty nineteen, Powell was 221 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 2: pretty new. 222 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: To the Fed. 223 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 2: They were hiking, then they paused January, they paused all 224 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 2: the way out to July, and then they had a 225 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:07,679 Speaker 2: first mid cycle adjustment in July with a cut. If 226 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 2: you look at the FED funds futures market right now, 227 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 2: that's where it's pricing in. The first cut would be 228 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 2: in July again. And then you get into seasonality where 229 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 2: you know, I really am big into seasonality, and I 230 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 2: think the end of Q three is a big crunch 231 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 2: time in credit markets and markets in general. So you know, 232 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:29,440 Speaker 2: that's that's the timeframe I'm looking at. I kind of 233 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:31,679 Speaker 2: had a similar timeframe for this year, but I was 234 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 2: watching it and with all my you know, subscribers and stuff, 235 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,680 Speaker 2: I was every week I would update it be like, Okay, 236 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 2: it's looking like less and less a chance of recession 237 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:44,080 Speaker 2: this year. Let's start looking at twenty twenty four. And 238 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 2: now that's kind of the call is towards the second 239 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 2: half of twenty twenty four. The economy is obviously in recession, 240 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 2: probably you know, an official recession from the Mber, and that's. 241 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 1: Where we're go is. But is now you think what's that? 242 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 1: Do you think it's officially in a recession? Now? 243 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:04,680 Speaker 2: No, I think it'll officially be going to recession the 244 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 2: second half of next year. 245 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: Got it? Got you? Because it needs two quarters? I mean, 246 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:10,439 Speaker 1: Biden changed the definition, but technically we need kind of 247 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: two quarters of negative growth. 248 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 2: Right, yeah, two quarters. There's some other things like with 249 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,719 Speaker 2: the labor market and a few other indicators that they 250 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:19,680 Speaker 2: have to take into account, but yeah. 251 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: So it's sort of it's sort of like a it's 252 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 1: sort of like a lagging indicator, right, it's sort of 253 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: like sort of like unemployment. But it's like, hey, we 254 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 1: just had two quarters of negative growth, so now we're 255 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 1: in a recession. It's like, oh, thanks for telling us now. 256 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, And one thing I've been saying too is that 257 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 2: it'll feel like a recession like this. Twenty twenty three 258 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 2: definitely was painful for a lot of folks, but it 259 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:40,199 Speaker 2: wasn't an official recession, and I think that will be 260 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 2: the same thing in the first half of the next year. 261 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 1: Do you think do you think when we had I mean, 262 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 1: we had two quarters of negative growth in the beginning 263 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: of this year, the Biden administration said, well, technically it's 264 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 1: not a recession. There's a lot of noise about that. 265 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: Do you think that wasn't a recession or do you 266 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 1: think it was. 267 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 2: It? I think it was recessionary. I can go both 268 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 2: ways on that. I understand the official definition, and I 269 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 2: understand why they don't want to call it a recession 270 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:11,560 Speaker 2: because it's it's on their record. You know, they don't 271 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 2: want to put a recession on their record. So I 272 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:16,320 Speaker 2: understand that side. But I also understand the side where 273 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 2: it feels, I mean, it's we had high inflation. People 274 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 2: can't make ends meat, you know, gas prices were very 275 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 2: high last year and all that stuff. So I understand 276 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 2: both sides of it. 277 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, So I'm excited to dig into this with 278 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 1: the ansel just because, like I'm an inflation bowl, I 279 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 1: kind of see the opposite. So neither for you know, 280 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: neither of us know, neither of us have a crystal 281 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 1: ball but it's a fun conversation to have. So I'm 282 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 1: sort of like this inflation bowl where I think the 283 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: world is much more inflationary. And to your point, if 284 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 1: we are we looking at it in as far as 285 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 1: prices or are we looking at it in terms of 286 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 1: money printing, and I think it's both. I think one, 287 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,440 Speaker 1: we have massive inflationary price inflationary pressures because as the 288 00:13:57,440 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 1: world continues to break apart, the cost of goods and 289 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: serviss and labor is going to go up. I would 290 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,439 Speaker 1: think if we continue to onshore things, we continue to 291 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 1: have supply chain wars that is inflationary on price is 292 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: going up. But on the money supply side, you know, 293 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 1: to your point, you can't solve debt crisis with more debt, 294 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 1: but you can try. And like, I don't see how 295 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 1: a government goes out of you know, goes bankrupt without 296 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 1: using the money printers. I think eventually, this is why 297 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 1: I say, like timeframe, I think you're I would agree 298 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: with you, And again I don't know, so let's just 299 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: talk about this. But I think eventually that's the case. 300 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 1: But I think it's an inflationary bust before a deflationary bust. 301 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 1: We got a trillion and stimulus in two thousand and eight, 302 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 1: we got between monetary and fiscal about ten ten trillion 303 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 1: and twenty twenty and maybe it's twenty trillion in twenty 304 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: twenty four, twenty twenty five. But you don't think they 305 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 1: were going to fire up the money printers. 306 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 2: Well, well, I don't agree that that's really money printing. 307 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 2: I think money is printed in the process of making 308 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 2: a loan and a commercial bank and everything that the 309 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 2: government does, everything the FED does, it's kind of like 310 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 2: window dressing. It doesn't really count as money printing. So 311 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 2: this is a credit based system. It's all about credit. 312 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 2: It's all about rehapothecation of credit. I just had a 313 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 2: piece last week or a live stream last week where 314 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 2: I went through the collateral multiplier where people have started 315 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 2: doing research on how many times is the treasury actually rehypothecated, 316 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 2: and it's about six or seven times. So if you 317 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 2: take thirty three trillion treasuries, that means the treasury market 318 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 2: is actually two hundred and twenty trillion dollars, So eight 319 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 2: trillion from the FED or another five trillion from the government, 320 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 2: it doesn't really make a big difference. If that twenty 321 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 2: trillion is shrinking, you know, if there's contagion in the 322 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 2: broader space. So that's what I would say. And also 323 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 2: for to push back on the deflation versus inflation. So 324 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 2: you talked about like cost push inflation with the wages 325 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:04,960 Speaker 2: going up or the price is going higher. That also 326 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 2: has an adverse effect on the credit markets. So when 327 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 2: I look out into like maybe a geopolitical macro environment, 328 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 2: I see de globalization. I see depopulation in a lot 329 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 2: of places with horrible demographics. People are aging in some 330 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 2: major economies, right, and those are not beneficial towards credit markets. 331 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 2: So the credit is going to shrink. There's going to 332 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 2: be a big anchor on this big credit financial system 333 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 2: that we have, and that is overall deflationary. And it 334 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 2: doesn't matter if they spend another ten trillion next year 335 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 2: or whatever. It's it's just pushing against the string, you know. 336 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I agree with the massive depopulation problem China specifically, 337 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 1: but all through the developed world. It's a big problem. 338 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 1: I agree with you on that. And to your point 339 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: on the cost push inflation. So you raise prices, is 340 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 1: that the inflationary and there these are complex issues. 341 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 2: Y. 342 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 1: I you know, for sure, when you have people, when 343 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 1: you have rising population and rising credit, you get growth. 344 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 1: And when you have the opposite of both of those, 345 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 1: you get the opposite of growth. So that makes sense. 346 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 1: I would say, like on the credit side, though, you 347 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 1: have that depopulation agenda or not agenda, should say it's 348 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: an agenda. We're not talking about conspiracy suff We're talking 349 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,919 Speaker 1: about demographics. That's decades, right, So like, if I think 350 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 1: about the next four or five years, I don't think 351 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:36,920 Speaker 1: that depopulation demographic really plays into the next couple of years. 352 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: When you think about like credit and you talk about 353 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 1: like this FED stimulus, the ten trillion between the FED, 354 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 1: the FED, Fed end government, but let's talk about just 355 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 1: from the FED. A lot of that went to really 356 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 1: taking a lot of debt onto their books. And if 357 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 1: they take the debt onto their books, and those companies 358 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 1: could then take on more debt. Anyway, I gotta take 359 00:17:58,520 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: a very quick break if you're just tuning in those 360 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 1: into the Mark Mass show. I'm sitting down with ansel 361 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 1: Lender and we're talking about where do we think the 362 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 1: future goes inflation or deflationary. It's an interesting conversation one 363 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 1: you certainly want to know we're back with more a minute. 364 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 1: Were gonna take a very quick break. Don't go away, 365 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,120 Speaker 1: We're back, all right, Welcome back. If you're just tune, 366 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Moss Show, sitting down with 367 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:20,679 Speaker 1: ansel Lender, and we are talking about inflation or deflation, 368 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: what does the future hold for us? And we have 369 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 1: a little bit different views on the future, and of 370 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 1: course neither of us know because we don't have a 371 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 1: crystal ball, but you know, and so I was just 372 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:32,720 Speaker 1: saying kind of before I take a break, you're kind 373 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,199 Speaker 1: of talking it really from this Austrian lens, and so 374 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 1: we want to make sure that we're clear on definitions. 375 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 1: And I agree with your the definition from an Austrian 376 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:43,679 Speaker 1: viewpoint of money of the inflation of the money supply, 377 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:45,879 Speaker 1: which to your point, we're in a debt based monetary system, 378 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 1: so that's increase of debt. And so I guess your 379 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 1: main thesis is that you talked about the depopulation and 380 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 1: not from a conspiracy level, just that's just demographics. I 381 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 1: think that's like that really starts hitting ten years, twenty 382 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,160 Speaker 1: years from so I don't think it's over the next 383 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 1: five years. If we think about just the rest of 384 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 1: this decades, So what is that another six seven years. 385 00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 1: I don't see that being a big piece, but this 386 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: debt bubble is a big piece, And so I guess 387 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 1: even just from that level, Well, one, would you agree 388 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,640 Speaker 1: with the demographic piece, Maybe not in the next five 389 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,880 Speaker 1: six years, And then if so, then two you think 390 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 1: that we've sort of maxed out on credit for the 391 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 1: next five six seven years. 392 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, So touching on the demographics, I do agree that 393 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:30,679 Speaker 2: it will ramp up slowly, but there's countries like Japan 394 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 2: and South Korea ramp. 395 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:36,200 Speaker 1: Up slowly, meaning me becoming more of a problem, yeah, 396 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: especially declining population declining, not ramping up, but being more 397 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 1: of a problem. Correct. 398 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, the adverse effects will ramp up as we go 399 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 2: over the next ten to twenty years, but places like 400 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:52,159 Speaker 2: Japan and South Korea they're facing a demographic cliff in 401 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 2: five years, and it's it's hard to kind of conceptualize. 402 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:58,920 Speaker 2: But one thing that I've written about it is that 403 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 2: you know network effects, So as you add people to 404 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:06,160 Speaker 2: a network, the benefit to each person in the network 405 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,679 Speaker 2: grows exponentially. Well, if you have a reverse network effect 406 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 2: and you start losing people out of that network, the 407 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 2: network benefit can drop dramatically. So really, just a very 408 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 2: small marginal change in the population growth is going to 409 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 2: have a dramatic effect on economic activity. 410 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:24,640 Speaker 1: So I think that's. 411 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 2: It's underappreciated by most people out there. And maybe I'm 412 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 2: an alarmist about depopulation or demographic decline, but I think 413 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 2: that's a very big problem. And what was the second 414 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 2: half of your quest? 415 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,639 Speaker 1: You're certainly not an alarmist. I mean, Harry Dent Junior 416 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:39,879 Speaker 1: has been talking about this for a long time. He 417 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 1: wrote a book called The Demographic Cliff I read years 418 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,919 Speaker 1: and years and years ago. One of the things when 419 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: you understand demographics. I really learned this from Harry Den's book. 420 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: While we may all be different people and we're different cultures, 421 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,879 Speaker 1: our spending patterns are somewhat predictable as we move through life, 422 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 1: and so even to your point, as we get older, 423 00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 1: as we're retiring, we're just going to take on less debt, 424 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:00,679 Speaker 1: Like I'm going to die in ten years with that 425 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 1: borrow a bunch of money for us, so to speak. Right, certainly, 426 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 1: I guess you could see the debt contraction happening from 427 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 1: that aging population in those areas you don't think that 428 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 1: governments can pick up the slack. They still seem like 429 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,200 Speaker 1: they want to borrow a lot of money. 430 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 2: You mean, just like replace them with with more money 431 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 2: printing or something. 432 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, I mean California has went from a one 433 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:24,200 Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars surplus to a sixty billion dollar deficit 434 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,239 Speaker 1: just like that. So there's sixty billion dollars of debt 435 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 1: they need to pick up, which is way more than 436 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 1: most of the old people in California for example. 437 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,159 Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't know if it's which comes first, if 438 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,199 Speaker 2: it's a chicken or egg, but I think that with 439 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 2: this the debt problem that we have in the world today, 440 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 2: where there's just this gigantic credit bubble, unimaginable credit bubble 441 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 2: in the world. Now, did that cause the demographic decline 442 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 2: or is the demographic decline going to cause a bursting 443 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 2: of the bubble? Which comes first? But no, I think 444 00:21:54,560 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 2: that the credit bubble is so far extended that if 445 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 2: they print more money, you know, the diminishing marginal returns, right, 446 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,040 Speaker 2: So the more yeah. 447 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 1: The diminishing returns is my base case as to why 448 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:09,120 Speaker 1: eventually we get the deflation. 449 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, So the more debt that they print you just 450 00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,879 Speaker 2: get less and less in return for that. And I 451 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 2: think we're there, and especially when you lock it in 452 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 2: with deglobalization and depopulation, the end of the credit bubble 453 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,199 Speaker 2: is here. So I do see what you're seeing that 454 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 2: or saying that right before the end, there could be 455 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 2: a spike of inflation. But for inflation, in my mind, 456 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,679 Speaker 2: we have to have increased private sector credit creation, and 457 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 2: we just don't have that. 458 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 1: Does it have to be private credit creation. 459 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:40,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, because I don't think the government spending money is 460 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 2: actual money printing. I think only the money is only 461 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 2: printed when banks make loans the government borrowing money. That 462 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,880 Speaker 2: money comes from somewhere. First, it is coming from savings, 463 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 2: so they're taking savings and spending it today. So it 464 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:58,199 Speaker 2: has an effect of increasing current demand, which pushes prices up. 465 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,920 Speaker 2: But the net amount of money hasn't changed. The net 466 00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 2: amount of money only changes when banks create loans to 467 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:05,560 Speaker 2: print money. 468 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:09,679 Speaker 1: And certainly we could see deflation happens fast because all 469 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,960 Speaker 1: of a sudden, it's one hundred billion dollars just could 470 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 1: just disappear. You know, it takes a long time to 471 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 1: build up a hundred billion dollars with the debt. But 472 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: it could just disappear instantly. Some of the things I 473 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: think about, and you look about, like the IMF making massive, 474 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 1: you know, multi hundred billion dollar loans to these nations. 475 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,800 Speaker 1: Now what they do is they don't let these nations 476 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,199 Speaker 1: go bankrupt. They just let them. They just will just 477 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 1: add more. What just add more was add more so 478 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,959 Speaker 1: that that debt never really seems to deflate. They just 479 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:36,959 Speaker 1: add another shrimp on the barbie, so to speak. Right, 480 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,719 Speaker 1: we see it happened in Argentina for example. It is 481 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:46,400 Speaker 1: interesting that the three largest creditors to the IMF are Argentina, Ukraine, 482 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,280 Speaker 1: and Egypt. And if Ukraine were to lose the war, 483 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 1: how are they going to pay the debt back? Argentina 484 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: is facing some sort of like a revolution with potential candidates, 485 00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 1: you know, Javier Mail down there, maybe they don't want 486 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:02,360 Speaker 1: to pay back the IMF. Egypt as some serious debt 487 00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 1: problems going on. Like what happens if those debts just 488 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,360 Speaker 1: go away? That's massive deflation right there, I think kind 489 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 1: of to your point, although, like I said, the IMF 490 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,120 Speaker 1: sort of has this history of not allowing that to happen. Now, 491 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, we saw that the economy and the 492 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: markets seem to have lost all relations. We got the 493 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,200 Speaker 1: entire economy, global economy shut down, but yet markets we're 494 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,920 Speaker 1: making new all time highs. So do you think the 495 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 1: FED could you know, we have like this massive potential 496 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 1: deflation event with the commercial real estate mortgage back market, right, 497 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:35,880 Speaker 1: two point nine two trillion dollars I could go away 498 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 1: one in five, aren't pain, et cetera. But they could 499 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:39,960 Speaker 1: just we'll just take all that on our books. We 500 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 1: buy mbs anyway, why not just take on all our books? 501 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 1: Do you think the FED has the firepower to sort 502 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:46,960 Speaker 1: of keep asset prices high? 503 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, I would call that a bailout. Like you're saying 504 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,199 Speaker 2: that the IMF would bail out these other countries, and 505 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 2: they never let them go bust. They just keep bailing 506 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,640 Speaker 2: them out. Same thing on a more microscale within segments 507 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 2: of the economy. I think though, that the problem with 508 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 2: that is taking on someone's bad debt, like the FED 509 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 2: buying the MBS or whatever. That doesn't create a beneficial 510 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:18,160 Speaker 2: environment for the economy. It actually makes things worse when 511 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,159 Speaker 2: they do that. Because I've explained it like this, So 512 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 2: if you're in business and somebody you're doing business with 513 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 2: gets a bailout, and you're going to question doing business 514 00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 2: with them, you might change your supplier to someone else. 515 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 2: So it actually spreads contagion and stigma throughout the economy 516 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 2: when you do these bailouts. That's why we didn't grow 517 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 2: after QWE the first time, you know, after the Great 518 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 2: Financial Crisis. It was just not a recipe to get 519 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:47,760 Speaker 2: back on our feet. It's just a way to paper 520 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 2: over the mess. So in total, it doesn't help the 521 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:55,640 Speaker 2: economy grow. And you have to have the growing economy 522 00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:59,400 Speaker 2: to increase credit creation to then get a sustainable inflationary 523 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 2: impact from that. 524 00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,639 Speaker 1: Yeah, so then if if, if that plays out, so 525 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 1: we get private credit decline. So from an Austrian viewpoint, 526 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 1: did we have deflation in the credit credit growth or 527 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 1: in the in the in the money supply. Let's say, 528 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 1: then what happens so now we're talking about that specifically 529 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:24,160 Speaker 1: as opposed to prices, do you think that drives prices 530 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,920 Speaker 1: down or could prices still go up in that environment? 531 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,119 Speaker 2: Prices could still go up big time. Depends on what 532 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 2: happens to supply. You know, if businesses, manufactures, supply chains 533 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:40,119 Speaker 2: start falling, collapsing, then you're going to have a huge 534 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 2: cutback and supply, but for a time period I don't know, 535 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 2: one two years, people will still want the same amount 536 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,159 Speaker 2: of stuff, so prices will go up. But that market 537 00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 2: has a way of correcting for that. So prices will 538 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:56,320 Speaker 2: go up, people will lose their disposable income, and then 539 00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,680 Speaker 2: prices will have to come back down. So that's why 540 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 2: the transitory nature. I think Powell knew this. I don't 541 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 2: know if he understands the system the same way I do, 542 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 2: but I think the reason why he called it transitory 543 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 2: is because he saw that exact dynamic that there is 544 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 2: not a way to get sustainably higher prices because people 545 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 2: just can't afford it, so it has to come go 546 00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:19,400 Speaker 2: up and come back down. 547 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 1: If you're just tune in, you're listening to the Mark 548 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:24,280 Speaker 1: Mass Show and I'm talking to Ansel Linder about where 549 00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 1: the future of the economy goes inflation deflation. I want 550 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 1: to come back and talk about prices specifically and maybe 551 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,359 Speaker 1: ways that we could position for this. We back with 552 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,320 Speaker 1: more in a minute. Don't away, were back? All right? 553 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:35,879 Speaker 1: Welcome back. If you're just tune in and you're listening 554 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,040 Speaker 1: to the Mark Mass Show, I'm sitting down with Ansel Lender. 555 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 1: He's the host of Bitcoin and Markets and the co 556 00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 1: host of fed Watch, and we're talking about inflation or deflation, 557 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 1: the debate that continues to rage on. So, you know, 558 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:50,439 Speaker 1: I think you make a very compelling case. I don't know, 559 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 1: you don't know, but I think it's a very compelling case. 560 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:56,440 Speaker 1: And I do agree with your premise, you know, and 561 00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:00,159 Speaker 1: we do know to your point. You talked about the 562 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,639 Speaker 1: law of diminishing returns, and something I talk about is 563 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,200 Speaker 1: what's called like the Kinsey and multiplier. And so typically 564 00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,159 Speaker 1: governments are trying to borrow fifty cents to get a 565 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,040 Speaker 1: dollar worth of growth. But eventually the fifty cent gets 566 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 1: them eighty cents, and then sixty cents, and then fifty cents, 567 00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,000 Speaker 1: and eventually the fifty cents of debt gets them twenty 568 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,680 Speaker 1: cents of growth. And so typically that happens once you 569 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,120 Speaker 1: get over ninety percent debt to GP. Now we're well 570 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 1: over one twenty five, and so we're certainly there for sure. 571 00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:28,600 Speaker 1: Now you said that potentially we could have deflation, deflation 572 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:32,240 Speaker 1: in the money supply because of credit contraction, but prices 573 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:34,720 Speaker 1: could still go up in the mean, THEI in the 574 00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 1: medium turn because of that, is that sort of like 575 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,080 Speaker 1: your base case for the next couple of years, or 576 00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:42,840 Speaker 1: what is your base case for the next couple of years? 577 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,200 Speaker 2: That was my base case going back twenty twenty one 578 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,560 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, So that part has kind of played out. 579 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,720 Speaker 2: I think we're we're sliding back into recession, like we 580 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 2: talked about at the beginning. I think twenty twenty four 581 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 2: we're going to see a recession. So what I would 582 00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 2: expect to see is very similar to the Great Finance 583 00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 2: Crisis or even twenty nineteen, where we start we have 584 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 2: a peak in yields. I think that's kind of underway 585 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:07,959 Speaker 2: right now, So we have a peak in yields that 586 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 2: they turn over for about twelve to eighteen months before 587 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:15,520 Speaker 2: the official recession is declared. In the meantime, stocks do 588 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 2: very well. Bitcoin does very well. Bitcoin did very well 589 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 2: in twenty nineteen before the COVID recession. Stocks traditionally do 590 00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,080 Speaker 2: what some of their best years are the year's right 591 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:30,959 Speaker 2: preceding recession. So if we are into that timeframe of 592 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 2: being twelve to eighteen months before recession, we should expect 593 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,720 Speaker 2: risk assets to rally and taking it into bitcoin land. 594 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 2: The having's coming up in that time. So I think 595 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,720 Speaker 2: this theory gives plenty of time for the having to 596 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,920 Speaker 2: take its effect, to have the cycle through possibly the 597 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 2: end of twenty twenty four something like that. So my 598 00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 2: deflationary call does not take out any sort of idea 599 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 2: of a bitcoin rally. 600 00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 1: So you think we have maybe a little short sort 601 00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:04,600 Speaker 1: of price inflation asset price inflation sugar rush potentially before 602 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,360 Speaker 1: like the big kind of recession kicks in and then 603 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,280 Speaker 1: the big deflationary event happens. 604 00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 2: Yep. If you look at the charts for that s 605 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,680 Speaker 2: P five hundred, and compared to recessions, the year prior 606 00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,720 Speaker 2: to recession is always very bullish. I think the average 607 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,000 Speaker 2: is like thirty percent returns or something in that year 608 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 2: before a recession. So of course stocks then fall in recession. 609 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:29,760 Speaker 2: But yeah, so if we're twelve eighteen months out, I 610 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:31,200 Speaker 2: think we're looking good. 611 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 1: One thing I always like to draw attention to is 612 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,880 Speaker 1: that when you know, you notice that Ansel and I 613 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,920 Speaker 1: have been talking about inflation being the money supply and 614 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,680 Speaker 1: through credit creation, not price inflation as we typically talk 615 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,360 Speaker 1: about it in CPI. And so the reason why I 616 00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 1: want to bring this back up just real quick is 617 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:53,479 Speaker 1: because we all live on fiat currency and we use 618 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 1: that as our unit account, and so we're measuring everything 619 00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:58,600 Speaker 1: in dollars. So how much is the S and P 620 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:00,960 Speaker 1: five hundred worth or ale house worth, or how much 621 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 1: is bitcoin worth in US dollars? But the US dollar 622 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 1: is being manipulated all the time, and so it's not 623 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,640 Speaker 1: the best measuring stick because we don't want money. We 624 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,440 Speaker 1: want the things that money buys us, goods and services. 625 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:15,360 Speaker 1: And the reason why I bring that up is because 626 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,800 Speaker 1: everything is a trade. And so even though the US 627 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:23,800 Speaker 1: dollar value of bitcoin could go down, or the US 628 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:28,080 Speaker 1: dollar value of gold could go down, it could still 629 00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,280 Speaker 1: buy you more goods and services at the same time. 630 00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 1: And so what happens is you look at your portfolios like, 631 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 1: oh my gosh, it's down in US dollars terms, but 632 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,040 Speaker 1: it actually could buy you more of the food or 633 00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:41,840 Speaker 1: the oil, or the cars or the real estate that 634 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,440 Speaker 1: you want, just like you could see the US dollar 635 00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,080 Speaker 1: value of your gold or bitcoin going up and it 636 00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:51,600 Speaker 1: could actually still buy you less of other things. So 637 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,000 Speaker 1: when you look at like a deflationary event and then 638 00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 1: you think about some of these stores of values, ansel, 639 00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,080 Speaker 1: do you think that might be sort of what we'd see. 640 00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,320 Speaker 1: So even maybe the US dollar value goes down, but 641 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,440 Speaker 1: they're buying you more goods and services. Yeah. I like 642 00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:05,160 Speaker 1: the way you put that. 643 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,400 Speaker 2: So like, for example, we could just take commodity like 644 00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:12,080 Speaker 2: oil and yeah gold, the price of gold or the 645 00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 2: price of bitcoin might go down, but oil will go 646 00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:18,160 Speaker 2: down more so oil. You'll still be able to buy 647 00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 2: more of the commodities and probably more of goods and 648 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,960 Speaker 2: services with your gold or your bitcoin, for sure. 649 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, it'd be interesting. I haven't. I don't know 650 00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,120 Speaker 1: if I've looked at that gold like a gold oil 651 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 1: chart for example, to see how that's done. Have you 652 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:33,560 Speaker 1: ever looked at that before? Now? 653 00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 2: I haven't. I will do that right after this though, 654 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:36,080 Speaker 2: for sure. 655 00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:37,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, it'd be interesting to see. 656 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:43,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you can just think about gold has 657 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 2: trended up, say from two thousand and three to today, 658 00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:51,200 Speaker 2: and oil has after well, after the Great Financial Crisis, 659 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,320 Speaker 2: it had a blow off top and it has generally 660 00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:57,080 Speaker 2: trended down since the Great Financial Crisis, so that that 661 00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 2: would still hold even for that. 662 00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 1: Yeah. I was at I was at bit block Boom 663 00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,000 Speaker 1: in August and I was doing a panel with tour 664 00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:09,640 Speaker 1: to mister and Preston Pitch and Tour was saying, how 665 00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,320 Speaker 1: what he does now is all his UH stock, all 666 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,760 Speaker 1: his charts that he's looking at. He likes to price 667 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:20,240 Speaker 1: in commodities CRB instead of USD to try to get 668 00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 1: like a better idea of what's going on. I thought 669 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,080 Speaker 1: that was pretty interesting. I started looking at some charts 670 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:25,920 Speaker 1: that way, and when you look at it that way, 671 00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 1: you see that the SP five hundred hasn't come back 672 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,960 Speaker 1: up to where you think it has since twenty twenty. 673 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:34,400 Speaker 1: So it's pretty interesting if you take a look at 674 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:34,720 Speaker 1: it like that. 675 00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,000 Speaker 2: Definitely I'll do that. It's very interesting to put other 676 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,760 Speaker 2: things as denominators. You know, we often look at the 677 00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:45,120 Speaker 2: bitcoin price in gold terms instead of US D terms, 678 00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,840 Speaker 2: or also the S and P five hundred in terms 679 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,560 Speaker 2: of gold or bitcoin, so that that's a good way 680 00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,560 Speaker 2: to do it as well. But I'll have to check 681 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:54,520 Speaker 2: out the CRB. 682 00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,800 Speaker 1: So yeah, the one. The thing is, I guess the 683 00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,200 Speaker 1: point to take home here is that when you're only 684 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,440 Speaker 1: looking at your portfolio and US dollar terms, you're not 685 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:05,320 Speaker 1: getting the full picture and you're missing out on that. 686 00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:10,560 Speaker 1: So the base case is potentially going into recession next year. 687 00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:12,600 Speaker 1: A little sugar rush going into it, sort of like 688 00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:16,360 Speaker 1: we saw in twenty nineteen, and then potentially hitting that 689 00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:21,719 Speaker 1: recession credit creation contraction. The one thing that you know, 690 00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,040 Speaker 1: I think, you know when I read Harry Dent's books, 691 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,400 Speaker 1: and I think I've read five of them, and you 692 00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,120 Speaker 1: have the Peter Shifts, and you have these people. I 693 00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:33,840 Speaker 1: believe their research is correct. They always fail to realize 694 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,880 Speaker 1: how many more tricks these central bankers have up their sleeve. 695 00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,520 Speaker 1: One of the things I saw happened in Europe, more Europe, 696 00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,720 Speaker 1: not really in the United States yet, but you had 697 00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:49,799 Speaker 1: the government's guaranteeing loans. So what happens is, you know, 698 00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:52,319 Speaker 1: the FED, the central banks can set monetary policy with 699 00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,000 Speaker 1: the banks still say now I don't want to lend 700 00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:56,400 Speaker 1: the money out, and so we saw that happen, but 701 00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:59,640 Speaker 1: they say, hey, the governments would guarantee the loans of 702 00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,560 Speaker 1: the bank, so now you have no risk. If you 703 00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:03,560 Speaker 1: loan the money out, you make money if a defaults 704 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,960 Speaker 1: will cover it, and that could really increase the credit 705 00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:11,839 Speaker 1: growth potentially hypothetically. Right, so even though you have depopulation, 706 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:14,399 Speaker 1: even though you have aging populations, won't take as much 707 00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 1: debt if all of a sudden, the banks are just like, hey, 708 00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,840 Speaker 1: come get as much debt as you want for almost free, 709 00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:21,719 Speaker 1: and they don't care because they have no risk. I 710 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:23,120 Speaker 1: mean that could offset it, right. 711 00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, it could. I'd have to look into the specific 712 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,680 Speaker 2: research about when they do things like that. But if 713 00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,640 Speaker 2: you look at the Senior Loan Officer Survey that the 714 00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,120 Speaker 2: FED puts out, that they go around and ask banks 715 00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,840 Speaker 2: about if they're tightening lending standards or loosening lending lending standards. 716 00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,920 Speaker 2: Typically in bad economic times they are pulling their tightening 717 00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:45,239 Speaker 2: their lending standards no matter what. 718 00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:47,320 Speaker 1: They don't want to do. They don't want to lose money. 719 00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:52,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, And also demand for loans goes down, so because 720 00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:55,440 Speaker 2: people tighten their belt in recession and they don't want 721 00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,719 Speaker 2: to take on more debt, so demand for loans goes down, 722 00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 2: and also lendings lending standards go higher. I don't know 723 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 2: how the loan guarantees would affect that dynamic. 724 00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:10,160 Speaker 1: So yeah, all right, man, this is what a fun conversation. 725 00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:11,880 Speaker 1: I really appreciate it. What a good point of view. 726 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:13,680 Speaker 1: I'd love to We'll have to talk more for sure 727 00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:15,600 Speaker 1: about this. If you're just tuning your listening to the 728 00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:17,759 Speaker 1: Mark Mas showp and sitting down with Ansel Lender. He's 729 00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,759 Speaker 1: the host of Bitcoin in Markets the co host of 730 00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,560 Speaker 1: fed Watch with Bitcoin Magazine. You certainly want to go 731 00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:24,920 Speaker 1: check out his work. We'll link to it in the 732 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,080 Speaker 1: show notes down below. That's what we got so much. 733 00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:28,759 Speaker 1: That's what we got for today. Thanks so much for listening. 734 00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:29,279 Speaker 1: Till next time.