1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. Welcome into the Action 2 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: Network Podcast. Brendy Glasheen your host. We have a very 3 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:20,240 Speaker 1: special episode for you in the world of sportsbook promotions 4 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: and plus ev betting. That is what we are diving 5 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 1: into on this pod. Let's get to our guest today. 6 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: He's the man behind the popular gambling Twitter account at 7 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: the promo Guy one two three, better known as just 8 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: promo Guy, a contributor here at Action Network. The Promo 9 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 1: Guy account is run by a guy who leverages a 10 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:45,480 Speaker 1: background in math to help better's profit off sportsbook promotions 11 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: and boosts and general marketplace inefficiencies. Just to give folks 12 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 1: some general background here, Promo Guy joined Twitter in April 13 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: of twenty twenty one after realizing there was a way 14 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 1: to quantify the value of different promotions and on odds 15 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: boost that sports books were offering. Already at forty thousand followers, impressive. 16 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:08,400 Speaker 1: The idea of using math to take advantage of sportsbook 17 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: promos existed, but there wasn't really a go to Twitter 18 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 1: account because like all of us, we need to go 19 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 1: on Twitter and find out what the hell's wrong with 20 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: the world, but also we need to find out you know, 21 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 1: this stuff promotions plus EV betting, so there wasn't really 22 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 1: a go to Twitter account or a one stop shop 23 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:27,559 Speaker 1: for finding all the plus EV promos and boosts across 24 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 1: legal US sportsbook So decided to leave his full time 25 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: job in banking to join Action as a contributor, which 26 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: we are very glad to hear and we're thankful for that. 27 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: And he's put more time into his discord where he 28 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: helps members with plus EV betting tactics. So I just 29 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: gave the people the spark Notes edition, but tell us 30 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: a bit more about yourself and kind of fill in 31 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 1: those gaps there, because I gave kind of the broad 32 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: strokes of what brings you here on this episode. 33 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 2: First off, thank you Brennan for having me. I'm really 34 00:01:57,360 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 2: excited to be here. Just to give you a little 35 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 2: bit on my back. I've been working as a trader 36 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 2: and investment bank for the last six ish years, ever 37 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,959 Speaker 2: since graduating from UPenn in Philly, and I kind of 38 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 2: got into gambling during the pandemic. I was back in 39 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 2: Philly and a buddy of mine kind of told me 40 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 2: about the boost and promos and thought that it would 41 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 2: be something I was interested in getting involved in. So 42 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 2: I just started betting, and honestly, it was a really 43 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 2: great kind of escape. You know, work got really stressful 44 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 2: during COVID and markets were kind of crazy, and it 45 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 2: was just kind of a nice release away from it. 46 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 2: And I started making money and having fun betting, and 47 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 2: maybe four or five months into doing so, I was like, man, 48 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 2: I made a couple grand each month having a lot 49 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 2: of fun, like this is great, and looked around and 50 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 2: felt like there was kind of a gap in the 51 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 2: market for this kind of Twitter account and nobody really 52 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 2: doing it in kind of a complete way. So I 53 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 2: just started tweeting. I created account and started tweeting. It 54 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 2: was really meant as a hobby. I never envisioned it 55 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 2: being something where I leave my job, because honestly, I 56 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 2: really enjoyed my job and wasn't something I was looking 57 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 2: to leave. But I've sort of felt that a little 58 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 2: over a year into it. It built such a great community. 59 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 2: I have such a tremendous opportunity in action, and I'm 60 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 2: really excited about what I can do with fifty more 61 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: hours a week, whether it's for action, for the discord, 62 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 2: for the Twitter account, you know, whatever, it may be. 63 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: Very cool, very cool. Before we get into some deeper 64 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: dive questions about what we brought you here for. I 65 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 1: am curious as it pertains to Twitter, what is the 66 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,799 Speaker 1: interaction like as far as how often are you going 67 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: back and forth? I mean, why is that the right 68 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: megaphone for you? 69 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 2: That's a great question. And it certainly can be a 70 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 2: bit of a nasty place, which I've I've learned, but 71 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 2: I would say it's overwhelmingly positive for starters, like sometimes 72 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 2: a lot of the bigger Twitter accounts can sort of 73 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 2: let people get under their skin and start applying to them. 74 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 2: And as far as Twitter versus other platforms, I'm really 75 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 2: not a big social media guy. Was kind of betting 76 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 2: and doing the math behind this, and I did have 77 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 2: a Twitter account and enjoy Twitter, so I just sort 78 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 2: of jumped into it. Mostly just been focused on putting 79 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 2: out good work helping people make money, you know, being 80 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 2: very thorough in the analysis I give and the plays 81 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 2: I put out, and I kind of figure the rest 82 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 2: will take care of itself from there. 83 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: Excellent, And again that account is the Promo Guy one 84 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:25,040 Speaker 1: two three, one of our newest contributors here at Action Network. 85 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 1: Let's get into the good stuff now, so again discussing 86 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 1: the world of sportsbook promotions plus EV betting. Now that 87 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 1: people know who you are to some degree, why do 88 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:38,840 Speaker 1: most odds boosts suck? 89 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 2: Like? 90 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: What are the basics of identifying when you see a 91 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,479 Speaker 1: book come out with something? What are the basics of 92 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,040 Speaker 1: identifying which ones don't suck? 93 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 2: Or? 94 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,559 Speaker 1: First off, how do you determine if it does suck? 95 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:55,479 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I guess answer the first question, why do 96 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:57,720 Speaker 2: you most boost suck? I think it kind of comes 97 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 2: down to each book treats boosts differently is part of 98 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 2: their offering. So you have some books that use it 99 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:10,160 Speaker 2: for customer acquisition. Those are kind of some of the 100 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 2: bigger books that are maybe okay, losing a little bit 101 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 2: of money on plus V betting as as long as 102 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:18,239 Speaker 2: it's kind of you know, you have these tasty looking 103 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 2: books boosts that draw people in, and then other books 104 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 2: which where a lot of the boosts kind of suck, 105 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 2: at least a high percentage of them. They probably look 106 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:31,039 Speaker 2: at boosts more as come gamble and do you think 107 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:33,720 Speaker 2: or you might be getting better odds than you would otherwise, 108 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 2: But it's still a way to kind of draw people 109 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 2: into negative V plays that they wouldn't have otherwise. 110 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 1: Made. 111 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 2: So those are types of books that have hundreds of 112 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 2: boosts and they cover everything in ninety something percent of them, 113 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:50,039 Speaker 2: if not one hundred, are not plus V or not 114 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 2: plus V in a significant way, and if they are, 115 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 2: there's like a ten dollars limit and those books or 116 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 2: it's just a mistake and those books just treat boosts differently. 117 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 2: There's nothing inherently really wrong with that, except for when 118 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 2: it's sort of become something where they're specifically boosting and 119 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 2: I've seen this, I think on every book where they're 120 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 2: boosting lines that are places where they are weak. In 121 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 2: other words, you're getting a boost on so and so 122 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 2: to hit a home run, but they have the lowest 123 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 2: line for a home run, or you're getting boosts on 124 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 2: one way markets, which is kind of maybe a bigger 125 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:32,040 Speaker 2: picture issue of you know, the betting industry has very 126 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 2: little regulations, especially compared to my background and financial industry, 127 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 2: where every time somebody asked me to make them a price, 128 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 2: I have to show them a two way market. I 129 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 2: have to tell them where my fair mid is. Like, 130 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 2: there's an incredible amount of transparency in this market to 131 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 2: protect customers, whereas none of that exists in the betting market. 132 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:52,599 Speaker 2: There can be one way of lines that are terrible. 133 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 2: You could have boosts that are below plenty of other 134 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 2: books non boosted lines, and I think that kind of 135 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 2: betrays a little bit of the trust you When you 136 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 2: see a boost, you assume it's the best line in 137 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:06,080 Speaker 2: the market. So I think there are issues when books 138 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 2: start doing that kind of thing, where they start boosting 139 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 2: plays of heavily vague or places where they're their own 140 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 2: lines are weak, and then you end up the boosts 141 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 2: that are not even the best price in the market 142 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 2: or close to it. But otherwise, I think that why 143 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 2: most boosts suck stems from every book treats boost differently 144 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 2: in part of their process. 145 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: So you use the home run example, that's a good 146 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 1: one because I think that's a lot of as you know, 147 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 1: being on Twitter, that's where like a lot of people 148 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: might go when they've got books making these kinds of 149 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 1: these offerings. How do you gauge whether a market is 150 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 1: reliable to compare. 151 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 2: To a boost. The whole assumption under ev betting is 152 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 2: that gambling markets are efficient, right that you know the 153 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 2: lines that we see are reflective of the underlying probabilities 154 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 2: that that event will happen. With that in mind, you know, 155 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 2: if you think about a coin to is sort of 156 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 2: the ultimate efficient market, right and it might be a 157 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 2: bad example because the line will never move, But there 158 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 2: are two things about a coin toss that are you 159 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 2: always see when it comes to the Super Bowl. Super 160 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 2: tight markets. You know, everybody has it minus one zero 161 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 2: five each side, sometimes like minus one three. You see 162 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 2: a bunch of promotions for plus one hundred each side 163 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 2: people do every year, right like, and books have incredibly 164 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 2: tight markets. And then the other thing is that they 165 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 2: let you bet a lot on it, and every book 166 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 2: has it. There's a lot of liquidity in this market. 167 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 2: Nobody's ever going to limit you on betting heads, and 168 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 2: they're not going to charge you minus one twenty on 169 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:38,679 Speaker 2: betting heads, right like. This is an absolutely efficient, strong 170 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 2: stable market. Boosts for regular markets for non coin tosses 171 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 2: are are no different, right So sometimes you know they'll 172 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 2: boost a money line and that's you know. You can 173 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 2: look at markets like Pinnacle which have incredibly tight money 174 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,959 Speaker 2: line markets. You can look at odds for every book 175 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 2: and they tend to be on the tighter side. They 176 00:08:56,800 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 2: let you bet. There aren't two larger limits on on 177 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 2: moneyline bets. You know, that's a very like widespread liquid 178 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:07,959 Speaker 2: type market. On the other hand, you might have who not, 179 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:09,959 Speaker 2: say a home run or you know, recently there have 180 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:12,679 Speaker 2: been two plus hits in the first inning, you know, 181 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 2: some of the more less bet on bets and maybe 182 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:20,200 Speaker 2: less deep markets, and you know, you have only three 183 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 2: books even offer that. I know, at least I looked 184 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 2: pretty hard even offer two plus hits in the first 185 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 2: inning type bet, and that market is very flimsy. It's 186 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 2: very different across sites. And you know, that's why we 187 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 2: kind of give ourselves an EV cushion on certain markets 188 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 2: because we don't know what the true probabilities are. There 189 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 2: aren't a lot of people betting it. It's a you know, 190 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 2: kind of a wider liquid market. So for those I 191 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 2: definitely want to have a bigger cushion than others versus 192 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 2: kind of like the straight line money line bets or 193 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 2: if they ever boosted coin toss the plus one ten 194 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 2: you know, that might only be five percent EV, but 195 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 2: that's a must beat, right if if you're a plus 196 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 2: EV gambler. 197 00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: Gotcha good stuff coin toss example, I took, oh it's 198 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:05,199 Speaker 1: for next February to use that what's the best way 199 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 1: for non technical math nerd betters right to get started 200 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 1: if they want to explore some of these concepts. 201 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the best way to do it. 202 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 1: I mean, and by the way, with all due respect 203 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 1: to the nerds, I didn't mean to offend anybody that's nerd. 204 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 1: We love you, but I don't know. 205 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 2: What you're I don't even know what you're implying right 206 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 2: now because I don't see any nerds in this conversation. 207 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 2: So I think the best thing to do, you know, 208 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 2: follow the account, but you don't have to start betting 209 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 2: right away, and I would just sort of get used 210 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:38,439 Speaker 2: to the terminology, kind of try and get a nice 211 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 2: understanding of what we're trying to do, the assumptions that 212 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:45,679 Speaker 2: we're making, and the best thing you really could do 213 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 2: from there is to reply ask questions. You know, really 214 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 2: ev community has grown so much in the last couple 215 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 2: of years where and certainly in the last year where 216 00:10:57,720 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 2: people have become really knowledgement. There's a lot of people 217 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,320 Speaker 2: in their applies that can help you get started, and 218 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 2: you know, maybe you start betting a little bit on 219 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:06,199 Speaker 2: a bet you would have already made, or a bet 220 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 2: that sounds good to you that you know, I'm saying 221 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,560 Speaker 2: is plus ev and kind of you know, dip your 222 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 2: toes in the water that way. Look, you might end 223 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 2: up saying this isn't for me. I don't care about 224 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 2: a small edge on some random two plus hits in 225 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,320 Speaker 2: the first inning bet, and it's not for everyone. But 226 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 2: you might start saying, hey, this is a way to 227 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 2: consistently make money, to have action on, you know, different 228 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 2: games that I might otherwise not have watched, and honestly 229 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 2: just have have fun with the whole thing and make 230 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 2: some money doing it. So the best thing to do 231 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 2: is just follow along, ask questions and kind of dip 232 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 2: your toes in slowly. 233 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 1: Some books aren't crazy about some of these tactics that 234 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: we've discussed already in the in this in this discussion, 235 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 1: do betters need to take any precautions to make sure 236 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 1: they're not banned or limited or is it unavoidable with 237 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: certain books. 238 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 2: I think that when it comes to limiting, unfortunately, we 239 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 2: don't have kind of a full picture of what gets 240 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 2: people limited. There's not a lot of information coming from 241 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:08,199 Speaker 2: the sports books and I can go back on about 242 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 2: regulations and all of that. That's kind of missing in 243 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,679 Speaker 2: the betting market. But overall, I would say the best 244 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 2: way to think about it help yourself out when it 245 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 2: comes to getting limited is thinking of it as Okay, 246 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 2: there's going to be a trader at a sports book 247 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 2: that looks at your betting history. Do you look like 248 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:25,839 Speaker 2: someone who is trying to bet or do you look 249 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 2: like someone who is trying to steal money? And when 250 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 2: I say steal money, if we know anything, we know 251 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 2: that people that are arbitraging books are more likely to 252 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,680 Speaker 2: get limited. And what that means is you're betting lines 253 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 2: on two different books in a way where you can 254 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 2: make risk free money because their line is different. And 255 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 2: it's obvious to these books when you're doing that, because 256 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 2: most of the time you're betting very random exact amounts 257 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 2: to set your payouts exactly equal. There's a thousand people 258 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 2: doing it at the same time as you, because you're 259 00:12:55,760 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 2: showing up on these odd shopping sites and you're beating 260 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 2: their closing line the CLB very consistently, right, so it's 261 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:07,679 Speaker 2: very easy. You know you're not being slick like they 262 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 2: know that you're arbing, and barbers tend to get limited 263 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 2: relatively quickly. Other things that you can kind of look 264 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:15,199 Speaker 2: out for. And this is kind of in the same 265 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 2: vein is arbing boosts. First, No, No, and a lot 266 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 2: of people I've seen the replies doing this, and I 267 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 2: always try and jump in. Do not are a boost 268 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 2: on the same book. The entire purpose of boosts, whether 269 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 2: it's plus TV or not, is to get people to 270 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 2: get into the sport, to watch the game, to have fun, 271 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 2: to get into gambling. It is not meant to give 272 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 2: you four dollars and sixty eight cents. So the first 273 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 2: thing is, don't ar a boost on the same book. Now, 274 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 2: I tell people not to arb, especially like major boosts, 275 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 2: you know, the ones on Fandaled DraftKings, some of the 276 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 2: bigger books on any books, and not a book you 277 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 2: care about anyway, because they know that there's a boost 278 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 2: on DraftKings that day for Gio Honest to have a 279 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:01,719 Speaker 2: double double. And if this is the first time you've 280 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 2: ever bet any player to not have a double double, 281 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 2: happens to be the same day thousands of other people 282 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 2: are doing it, and it happens to be the same 283 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 2: day that like DraftKings, whatever book I said is having 284 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:14,239 Speaker 2: a boost on him, and you're you're setting your payouts 285 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 2: exactly perfectly, even to the max bet of the boost, 286 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 2: Like they know what you're doing. They know you're going 287 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 2: to are their boosts and they're not here to, you know, 288 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 2: have you take their money. They they're here to have 289 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 2: you gamble. So the same thing goes for like when 290 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 2: the goal in first ten minutes boost comes up on 291 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 2: Vanduel or DraftKings, Like if you go out in arbit 292 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 2: on any of the other books, this isn't new to 293 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 2: them like that. You know a trader is going to 294 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 2: look at that and say, okay, a thousands people just 295 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 2: bet on a super niche market that nobody ever bets, 296 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 2: and there happens to be a boost out on a 297 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 2: major book for it, Like that's an arbor, that's a 298 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 2: that's a clear kind of trigger to them. Now again 299 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 2: we don't know what gets you limited, but those are 300 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 2: the kinds of things that you might want to like 301 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 2: prevent yourself from doing. 302 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 1: Can you explain to the folks at home that might 303 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 1: not be familiar with arbitrag, Yeah, exactly. 304 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 2: That is it's basically risk free betting in this case, 305 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 2: or risk free ways to make money. If Johannis double 306 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 2: double is boosted to plus one hundred, and you know 307 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 2: you can bet twenty five dollars on that bet, so 308 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 2: you got twenty five dollars. You risk twenty five dollars 309 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 2: to win twenty five dollars. And then on another site 310 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 2: you can get Giannis to not have a double double 311 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 2: at plus three hundred, and let's say some people will 312 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 2: bet like twenty five dollars on that market. So if 313 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 2: Jannis gets a double double, you lose nothing because you 314 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 2: win twenty five dollars in draftings. You lose twenty five 315 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 2: dollars in the other site, and if he doesn't get 316 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 2: a double double, you lose twenty five dollars from the 317 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 2: boost on draftings. But you just went out and made 318 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 2: plus three hundreds. You made seventy five dollars, so you 319 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 2: netted fifty because he didn't get a double level and 320 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 2: people kind of set these arbitrages differently. This is one 321 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 2: where you know you still have a little bit of 322 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 2: skin in the game because you're rooting for you. Honest, 323 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 2: they're not going to a double double. But a lot 324 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 2: of people would just set it up so that they're making, 325 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 2: you know, four dollars no matter what. 326 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: Good stuff. That's helpful in most cases, we assume that 327 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: gambling markets are pretty efficient based on what we've learned 328 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:11,880 Speaker 1: about you in this conversation, do you think it's Do 329 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: you think it's too unlikely for people to turn a 330 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 1: profit sports betting in the traditional way? 331 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 2: First off, no, I think that there are clearly people 332 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 2: that make money, you know, betting, that don't do plus 333 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 2: EV betting. And plus EV can mean different things because 334 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 2: it's just expected value. But in the way I use it, 335 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 2: it's you're getting plus expected value assuming that the market 336 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 2: that you're betting on is efficient. Right, So it's not 337 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 2: like every single play profit guy does is plus EV 338 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 2: even though he expects to win over time, he's still 339 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 2: betting with the big He's not line shopping or things 340 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 2: like that. With that respect gambling. For gambling markets to 341 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 2: be efficient, there have to be smart players because the 342 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 2: assumption isn't that sports books know all. The assumption is 343 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 2: that people shart betters give them information, and they bet 344 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 2: both sides. They you know, they're getting action from both sides, 345 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,600 Speaker 2: and that in the end, sportsbooks set their prices and 346 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 2: adjust their prices to sort of a saturated point where 347 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:11,640 Speaker 2: they believe is fair kind of towards the end. Right. 348 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 2: With that in mind, you think of like NBA first basket. 349 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 2: So who's I believe a new contributor to action. He 350 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 2: saw inefficiencies in teams to score first and all and 351 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 2: the players to score first, NBA betting lines right, and 352 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:31,439 Speaker 2: his own data to sort of make money off of 353 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 2: these bets. And he's done it very successfully and consistently 354 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 2: for the last few years. So someone like him, how 355 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 2: can he exist? Clearly that market was inefficient and clearly 356 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 2: he's able to profit out it. How can plus hev betting? 357 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 2: How can boost still exist and not be trapped in 358 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 2: that kind of sense? Well, because he gives them the 359 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,679 Speaker 2: information that their lines are inefficient, they move their lines 360 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:54,920 Speaker 2: once he bets, same thing happens a proper that guy. 361 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:56,400 Speaker 2: We all see it. You know a lot of these 362 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 2: sharp betters. When they bet, lines move and they sort 363 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 2: of move to saturated points. So the whole assumption is 364 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 2: that books gain information from these smart gamblers and get 365 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 2: themselves to efficient points. 366 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:10,679 Speaker 1: One of the other things we wanted to hit on 367 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 1: because this is this this I feel like when I 368 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: asked you earlier about getting getting crap on Twitter. Yeah, 369 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: boosts or traps promo guy like, come on, what do 370 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 1: you say to those people? 371 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 2: Well, you just say I don't reply to them. But 372 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:29,120 Speaker 2: that's good. But I'll I'll say to my friend Brennan here. 373 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, pretend I am barking at you on Twitter. Come 374 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 1: at me, pro. 375 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 2: All right, maybe I am a nerd, I would say this. 376 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,120 Speaker 2: So if we go back to the NBA First Basket example, 377 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 2: and that he finds inefficient markets, Let's say for Cavs 378 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 2: Pelicans game, who's going to score first? 379 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 1: Right? 380 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 2: For a boost to be a trap, the assumption is 381 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:53,399 Speaker 2: that whatever book is boosting it knows which which of 382 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,879 Speaker 2: those two bets is the inefficient side, Right, they have 383 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 2: to actually know that their lines are wrong in order 384 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 2: for the boost to be not a good bet. Then 385 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:06,440 Speaker 2: they have to give out this information, So they have 386 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,959 Speaker 2: to leave it up for people like NBA First Basket 387 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 2: to take their lunch money. Right, then they have to 388 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 2: then they have to tell all gamblers, Hey, this is 389 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 2: where we're vulnerable. This is where markets are completely wrong. 390 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 2: So we're boosting it like they're telling us this through 391 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,119 Speaker 2: the boost, and then they're capping everybody's max bed at 392 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 2: fifty dollars. So other than the fact that booths have 393 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:34,880 Speaker 2: been tracked positive for you know, consistently over the long run. 394 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,360 Speaker 2: It makes no sense for a sportsbook to choose lines 395 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:42,960 Speaker 2: where they know that they are basically mismarked, because they're 396 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 2: leaving them up and then they're signaling to everybody that 397 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,400 Speaker 2: this is where we are wrong. And that's the only 398 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 2: way that you know, you look at a ten percent 399 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 2: ev boost that we're not going to make money betting 400 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 2: those over the long run is that they have to 401 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 2: be more than ten percent miss marked plus the big 402 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 2: So they have to be tremendously off to start. If 403 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,200 Speaker 2: you believe that booster traps, you believe in all that, 404 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:12,440 Speaker 2: and to me, that's kind of a crazy theory. And 405 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 2: if there are you know, millions to be made on 406 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 2: fading boosts, I haven't seen anyone do it yet. 407 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,360 Speaker 1: There you go. He is the promo guy. You can 408 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 1: find him on Twitter at the promo Guy one two three. 409 00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 1: Before we let you go, I think I said this 410 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,879 Speaker 1: off the top. Folks obviously can find you on Twitter. 411 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:32,640 Speaker 1: Where all should they follow you? You have a discord channel. 412 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,639 Speaker 1: Why don't you talk to us about what happens there 413 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,400 Speaker 1: and what benefits can be had? Checking that out. 414 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, So, as Brennan mentioned, follow me at the Promo Guy, 415 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 2: I wants to be three On Twitter, The discord is 416 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 2: really you know, it's become an amazing community for finding 417 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 2: plus EV plays. You know, myself and ROI Guy and 418 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,720 Speaker 2: a few other Twitter accounts that kind of cover EV 419 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 2: boosts are in there, and we basically cover every single 420 00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 2: boost and promo and have play is problem that you 421 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 2: can think of. We have Dinger Tuesdays in there for 422 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,159 Speaker 2: fan duel and it's really just a great place for 423 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:10,360 Speaker 2: if you're looking to if you believe in plus EV 424 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,679 Speaker 2: betting and you know the Twitter accounts sort of not 425 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 2: enough for you. This is an expanded hub for plus 426 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 2: TV bets that you know, people made a lot of 427 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 2: money with and had a lot of fun betting on awesome. 428 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,679 Speaker 1: Well, I'll tell you what I've learned something today listening 429 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,159 Speaker 1: to what you had to say about these, uh, you know, 430 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 1: these promotions and plus EV betting and how you go 431 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 1: about your business trying to dissect the promo market. Great stuff. Again, 432 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,640 Speaker 1: you can find them on Twitter. The Promo Guy one, 433 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 1: two three, Thanks for stopping by The Action Network podcast 434 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: a special episode for the people. Maybe now they won't 435 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 1: think the boost suck as much, so maybe we did 436 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 1: accomplish that today. 437 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 2: If we just converted one person, then we did something 438 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 2: good today. 439 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,440 Speaker 1: Excellent. Thanks so much for the promo, Guy, Brending glass Sheen. 440 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 1: Thanks everyone for tuning into the Action Work podcast. We'll 441 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: join you next time.