WEBVTT - Europe's Coronavirus Déjà Vu 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.760 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two d 0:00:06.920 --> 0:00:10.920 and twenty one since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:16.680 Today's main story. By all outward appearances, Europe seems to 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:20.800 be entering a frightening coronavirus deja vu at the moment, 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:25.520 COVID nine cases are rising quickly and several countries are 0:00:25.600 --> 0:00:31.440 threatening widespread lockdowns. A closer look, though, reveals Europe's second 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:37.000 wave is very different from its first. But first, here's 0:00:37.000 --> 0:00:46.600 what happened in virus News today. Global coronavirus cases have 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:51.680 exceeded forty million, with a pandemic showing no signs of slowing. 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:56.200 Infections have reached record numbers across Europe, while the US 0:00:56.320 --> 0:01:01.640 and India are averaging more than fifty thousand cases a day. 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:05.280 Although it took six months for the worldwide tally to 0:01:05.360 --> 0:01:10.679 reach ten million cases, subsequent milestones have come increasingly faster, 0:01:11.319 --> 0:01:15.400 with the latest ten million cases added in just thirty 0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:19.760 two days. Global cases reached a single day record of 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:25.320 more than four hundred and fifteen thousand on Friday. China's 0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:30.640 economic recovery continues to accelerate thanks to an aggressive coronavirus 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:36.119 containment policy that has allowed local factories to reopen. China's 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:40.080 eastern port city of ching Dao conducted ten point nine 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:45.920 million coronavirus tests in only five days after thirteen infections 0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:50.440 were discovered in the city. It's another demonstration of China's 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:56.080 ambitious strategy in mass testing wherever infections are reported. Ching 0:01:56.200 --> 0:02:00.280 Dao's campaign was completed roughly three times faster than a 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:05.200 similar experiment by Wuhan in May. Chinese cities have adopted 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:08.640 a batch testing method that enables as many as ten 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:14.760 samples to be assessed simultaneously. However, the strategy is rarely 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:19.440 used in Western countries, who have questioned the methods accuracy 0:02:19.520 --> 0:02:24.560 and credibility. In the Czech Republic, hundreds clashed with riot 0:02:24.600 --> 0:02:29.200 police in protest against social distancing rules and other measures 0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:32.080 imposed by the government in an attempt to stem the 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:36.440 most acute spread of the coronavirus in Europe. The police 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:40.600 used tear gas, water cannons, and an armored personnel carrier 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:44.760 to disperse some two thousand protesters who assembled at the 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:50.080 city's Old Town Square. Meanwhile, Poland has started a construction 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:53.799 of the first field hospital for COVID nineteen patients at 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:58.000 Warsaw's National Stadium. The facility has planned to have five 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:01.720 hundred beds and will fully be ready later this week, 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:09.760 which brings us to today's main story. Millions of Europeans 0:03:09.760 --> 0:03:14.120 are facing tighter restrictions on their movements. London, Paris and 0:03:14.200 --> 0:03:18.520 Vienna are enforcing stricter curbs, while Ireland is preparing some 0:03:18.639 --> 0:03:23.080 of the region's toughest measures. On Monday, the government of 0:03:23.120 --> 0:03:27.919 Whales announced a two week firebreak lockdown designed to curb 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:31.880 the spread of the coronavirus. All non essential retail outlets, 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:36.600 including pubs and restaurants, will be closed from October to 0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:41.280 November nine. I spoke with Bloomberg reporter Katherine Boseley but 0:03:41.480 --> 0:03:44.520 how Europe is hoping to control this new wave of 0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:49.880 coronavirus infections and whether another round of restrictions and lockdowns 0:03:50.200 --> 0:03:54.360 can offset the economic devastation in the region the pandemic 0:03:54.520 --> 0:04:00.400 has already caused. On Monday, Wales announced that was going 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:04.520 into a two week firebreak lockdown um a response to 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:08.600 the resurgence of COVID nineteen cases we're seeing throughout Europe, 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:11.920 and I was just wondering if you might unpack what 0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:16.640 is driving this new wave. Well, governments are scratching their 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:20.880 heads just like everyone else. One hypothesis is that it's 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:24.839 the cold weather we've had. The weather changed for the 0:04:24.920 --> 0:04:28.000 fall about two weeks ago, which was sort of in 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:31.520 time with the resurgence and cases. And with the cold weather, 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:35.240 people spend more time indoors, which means that they're more 0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:37.960 encrowded rooms and that seems to be an ideal breeding 0:04:38.000 --> 0:04:42.000 ground for the virus. Most European governments seem to have 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:46.640 acknowledged that a second wave was always possible, but this 0:04:46.880 --> 0:04:51.080 wave seems to be much larger and much more difficult 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:56.440 to contain than expected. So what went wrong Well there, 0:04:56.640 --> 0:05:00.440 it's not clear if it's really larger. Certainly we've had 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:06.159 more positive tests than in numerical terms than we did 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:12.840 in March and April. However, scientists in Germany have hypothesized 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:15.440 that in fact it may be that there is wider 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:18.680 testing now available and in effect, had there been as 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:22.200 many tests available back in the in the early spring, 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:26.560 that the tests would have been much higher. So it's 0:05:26.600 --> 0:05:31.680 not clear. The hospitalizations now are generally, I think, still 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:35.960 lower than they were in the spring. European countries are 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:39.080 facing an uphill battle, it seems when it comes to 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:44.640 lockdown fatigue. What's the sense of whether Europeans are willing 0:05:44.760 --> 0:05:49.200 to go through another phase of tighter restrictions. Well, I 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:53.719 think certainly the government's had a lot of more public 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:58.000 goodwill during the first round of lockdowns and that the 0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:03.120 political capital is definitely expiring and people are getting pretty frustrated. 0:06:03.640 --> 0:06:05.960 There was a protest in a little town in Italy 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:09.239 I think last week when people when it was announced 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:11.479 that there would be a new round of restrictions, people 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:14.320 just kind of said they'd had enough. And obviously there 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:18.279 had been protests also, for example in Germany of people 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:21.960 um arguing that there, you know, civil liberties were being 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:25.520 infringed by the government. So there definitely is an element 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:30.159 of of lockdown fatigue, and clearly that is I think 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:34.120 one of the reasons why governments, for example Italy all Switzerland, 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:37.479 they are trying to keep the economy alive or trying 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:41.480 to be as targeted as possible rather than a blanket crackdown, 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:45.799 because the more people's livelihoods are at stake, the more 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:49.600 the less likely they will be to to cooperate. If 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:53.760 you were to identify one success case in Europe. Do 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:58.400 you see one country potentially weathering the storm better than 0:06:58.960 --> 0:07:03.280 it's comparative neighbors. It's very difficult to say. I would 0:07:03.320 --> 0:07:08.679 say that certainly Germany and Switzerland have weathered the storm 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:13.000 better than many other countries. I mean many other countries then, 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:18.080 for example, um France and Spain, both in entire terms 0:07:18.080 --> 0:07:22.680 of healthcare and in terms of um cost to the economy. 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:26.720 But that doesn't necessarily mean that that is because the 0:07:26.720 --> 0:07:31.160 policies that they enacted were the Germany or Switzerland enacted 0:07:31.160 --> 0:07:34.440 were better. It may just be that obviously they had 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:38.480 um more robust health care systems because they are are 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:42.440 are wealthy countries and the nature of their economies are 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:46.920 perhaps not as oriented to tourism and service sector. Then 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:52.640 are the areas of economic activity that the pandemic disproportionately affects, 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:58.120 And so thinking about these systems and that economic impact 0:07:58.520 --> 0:08:02.840 from the pandemic, I mean, what are the broader plans 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:05.640 that European leaders are are hoping to do and have 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:10.120 already done to try and offset this negative economic impact 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:14.040 from a potential general lockdown that might be coming down 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:17.760 the road, or just in general tighter restrictions. When the 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:23.440 pandemic initially hit earlier this year, governments replicated, UM, we're 0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:26.800 very eager to replicate Germany's model of quote sabites, which 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:31.960 are furlough programs and which basically the government peace companies 0:08:32.480 --> 0:08:35.800 which who have to uh suspend work due to the 0:08:36.200 --> 0:08:41.320 economic crisis and therefore people get paid at least partial 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:45.000 part of their salaries UM and and get laid off. 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:48.600 That's the idea that's been very widely used. It where 0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:51.360 they used in Britain, it was used in France, it 0:08:51.440 --> 0:08:54.520 was used in Spain, Germany, Switzerland and Austria. Though it's 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:58.240 very common they're already before the crisis though this was 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:03.360 really the key own of UM of many countries response. 0:09:03.360 --> 0:09:08.040 In addition, they gave out various loans interest free, free 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:12.880 or low interest loans to companies that were affected UM 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:16.839 and then there was also a moratorium on insolvencies, so 0:09:17.559 --> 0:09:21.200 companies that were um, you know, at risk of of 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:24.640 going belly up actually were sort of got a stay 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:30.120 of execution. So those policies are likely to continue. There's 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:34.640 obviously also in a bit more less immediate but bigger impact, 0:09:34.679 --> 0:09:37.240 there is the use seven D and fifty billion euro 0:09:38.200 --> 0:09:40.920 rescue fund that's likely to sort of be more of 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:44.280 a driver for the recovery. But it's quite clear that 0:09:44.360 --> 0:09:49.040 all these fiscal and also monetary policy stimuli will have 0:09:49.120 --> 0:09:51.960 to be left in place, and it's now is definitely 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:54.760 you know, policy makers have warned now is not the 0:09:54.800 --> 0:10:01.400 time to withdraw stibulus. Is there a worry that this 0:10:01.559 --> 0:10:06.079 stimulus cannot last the length potentially that we're looking at 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:08.880 for this pandemic that now that we are facing the 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:12.080 reality that we won't necessarily or potentially have a vaccine 0:10:12.160 --> 0:10:18.360 until one, is there a concern that the stimulus just 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:22.560 simply cannot continue for the length of time that we 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:26.439 may be facing. Yes and no. Of course, in in 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:29.319 in theory, that is always a concern, and certainly I 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:34.040 think in in Britain those where there was a dispute 0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:37.880 about the expiry of the furlough program, and now in 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:41.840 the North of England the government has had to announce 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:46.920 new support measures for for municipalities that have gone into 0:10:46.960 --> 0:10:50.160 lockdown a second time. On the other hand, you know, 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:54.840 policymakers generally, for example in Germany, have been very very 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:58.640 eager to stress that you know, these support measures are 0:10:58.679 --> 0:11:03.880 not going to expire any time soon. So what might 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:08.760 be a successful roadmap for Europe going forward? Again, if 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.720 we're thinking about a pandemic that might be here for 0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:17.000 the next at least until the end of what might 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:21.439 be a way to look forward and prevent wider lockdowns, 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:26.080 wider restrictions and offset that negative economic impact. Well, I 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:28.760 think you're asking me the million dollar question that nobody 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:32.720 has the answer to. UM, certainly, I think the you know, 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:35.839 golden way will would be to styra corpse, in which 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:38.720 you're able to keep a grip on or a lid 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:42.760 on infections and certainly on serious cases and deaths, and 0:11:42.840 --> 0:11:46.080 at the same time manage the economy in such a 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:48.760 way that people are still as much as possible able 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:52.400 to go to work and live as normal lives as 0:11:52.440 --> 0:11:55.640 they can. That's clearly what the government in Italy is 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.040 trying to do. The government in switzerlanda is as well. 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:02.880 UM Germany I think also UM is probably going to 0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:05.880 try to find a middle ground somewhere, and in an 0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:10.800 ideal case, French Finance Minister Lumier has said, you know that, uh, 0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:14.840 you know, a second real lockdown is just going to 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:19.040 be incredibly costly for the economy, so they're just going 0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:22.880 to have to try and see what works to to 0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:28.240 satisfy both the economic and the health care imperatives. So 0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:31.400 in terms of this recent announcement by Whales in which 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:36.880 everything is shut down anything considered non essential, it doesn't 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:41.360 sound necessarily like this is something many European leaders want 0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:44.160 to do or are thinking that there is tolerance for 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:48.200 going forward, that there will be additional restrictions, but not 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:52.800 an overall lockdown approach as similar to what we saw 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:57.280 in March or April. Well, it's hard to say. Maybe, 0:12:57.400 --> 0:13:02.840 of course, if if the situation, the healthcare situation becomes worse, 0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:06.000 and we're already seeing you know, record infections, it gets 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:10.320 even worse in hospitals become overburdened, they may have a 0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:14.120 little choice. That said, you know, the public is aware 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:17.080 of the economic costs that all of these these measures 0:13:17.120 --> 0:13:21.719 have had, so and of course these are are also voters, 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:24.880 so I have politicians will have to figure out how 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:29.840 to essentially square the circle. Germany never really had a 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:34.520 full full lockdown the way France or Spain had so 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:38.640 um and managed to get through the first wave very well. 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:43.720 So I think that there will be a politicians and 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:47.440 decision makers across across your car just going to have 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:51.400 to try and take baby steps and and do the 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:59.000 best that they can. That was Katherine Boseley, and that's 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.520 it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak 0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:04.920 from one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit bloomberg 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:08.720 dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, 0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:11.480 please leave us a review and a rating on Apple 0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:14.719 Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:19.120 listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is 0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:24.040 produced by Tophor Forheaz, Jordan Gospore, Magnus Henrickson, and me 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:28.840 Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Catherine Bosley. 0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:33.240 Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Rick Shine 0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:38.040 and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:39.440 Thanks for listening.