1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two d 2 00:00:06,920 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 1: and twenty one since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: Today's main story. By all outward appearances, Europe seems to 4 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 1: be entering a frightening coronavirus deja vu at the moment, 5 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 1: COVID nine cases are rising quickly and several countries are 6 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: threatening widespread lockdowns. A closer look, though, reveals Europe's second 7 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: wave is very different from its first. But first, here's 8 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 1: what happened in virus News today. Global coronavirus cases have 9 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 1: exceeded forty million, with a pandemic showing no signs of slowing. 10 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: Infections have reached record numbers across Europe, while the US 11 00:00:56,320 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 1: and India are averaging more than fifty thousand cases a day. 12 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: Although it took six months for the worldwide tally to 13 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:10,679 Speaker 1: reach ten million cases, subsequent milestones have come increasingly faster, 14 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 1: with the latest ten million cases added in just thirty 15 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 1: two days. Global cases reached a single day record of 16 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 1: more than four hundred and fifteen thousand on Friday. China's 17 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: economic recovery continues to accelerate thanks to an aggressive coronavirus 18 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:36,119 Speaker 1: containment policy that has allowed local factories to reopen. China's 19 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 1: eastern port city of ching Dao conducted ten point nine 20 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 1: million coronavirus tests in only five days after thirteen infections 21 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 1: were discovered in the city. It's another demonstration of China's 22 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: ambitious strategy in mass testing wherever infections are reported. Ching 23 00:01:56,200 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 1: Dao's campaign was completed roughly three times faster than a 24 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: similar experiment by Wuhan in May. Chinese cities have adopted 25 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: a batch testing method that enables as many as ten 26 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: samples to be assessed simultaneously. However, the strategy is rarely 27 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: used in Western countries, who have questioned the methods accuracy 28 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: and credibility. In the Czech Republic, hundreds clashed with riot 29 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 1: police in protest against social distancing rules and other measures 30 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,080 Speaker 1: imposed by the government in an attempt to stem the 31 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 1: most acute spread of the coronavirus in Europe. The police 32 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: used tear gas, water cannons, and an armored personnel carrier 33 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 1: to disperse some two thousand protesters who assembled at the 34 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 1: city's Old Town Square. Meanwhile, Poland has started a construction 35 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,799 Speaker 1: of the first field hospital for COVID nineteen patients at 36 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 1: Warsaw's National Stadium. The facility has planned to have five 37 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: hundred beds and will fully be ready later this week, 38 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: which brings us to today's main story. Millions of Europeans 39 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: are facing tighter restrictions on their movements. London, Paris and 40 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 1: Vienna are enforcing stricter curbs, while Ireland is preparing some 41 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 1: of the region's toughest measures. On Monday, the government of 42 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 1: Whales announced a two week firebreak lockdown designed to curb 43 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: the spread of the coronavirus. All non essential retail outlets, 44 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: including pubs and restaurants, will be closed from October to 45 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: November nine. I spoke with Bloomberg reporter Katherine Boseley but 46 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 1: how Europe is hoping to control this new wave of 47 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 1: coronavirus infections and whether another round of restrictions and lockdowns 48 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: can offset the economic devastation in the region the pandemic 49 00:03:54,520 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 1: has already caused. On Monday, Wales announced that was going 50 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: into a two week firebreak lockdown um a response to 51 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: the resurgence of COVID nineteen cases we're seeing throughout Europe, 52 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 1: and I was just wondering if you might unpack what 53 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 1: is driving this new wave. Well, governments are scratching their 54 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: heads just like everyone else. One hypothesis is that it's 55 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 1: the cold weather we've had. The weather changed for the 56 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: fall about two weeks ago, which was sort of in 57 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: time with the resurgence and cases. And with the cold weather, 58 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: people spend more time indoors, which means that they're more 59 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: encrowded rooms and that seems to be an ideal breeding 60 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 1: ground for the virus. Most European governments seem to have 61 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 1: acknowledged that a second wave was always possible, but this 62 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 1: wave seems to be much larger and much more difficult 63 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 1: to contain than expected. So what went wrong Well there, 64 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 1: it's not clear if it's really larger. Certainly we've had 65 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:06,159 Speaker 1: more positive tests than in numerical terms than we did 66 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 1: in March and April. However, scientists in Germany have hypothesized 67 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: that in fact it may be that there is wider 68 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: testing now available and in effect, had there been as 69 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 1: many tests available back in the in the early spring, 70 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: that the tests would have been much higher. So it's 71 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 1: not clear. The hospitalizations now are generally, I think, still 72 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 1: lower than they were in the spring. European countries are 73 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: facing an uphill battle, it seems when it comes to 74 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: lockdown fatigue. What's the sense of whether Europeans are willing 75 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 1: to go through another phase of tighter restrictions. Well, I 76 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:53,719 Speaker 1: think certainly the government's had a lot of more public 77 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 1: goodwill during the first round of lockdowns and that the 78 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: political capital is definitely expiring and people are getting pretty frustrated. 79 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 1: There was a protest in a little town in Italy 80 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,239 Speaker 1: I think last week when people when it was announced 81 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,479 Speaker 1: that there would be a new round of restrictions, people 82 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 1: just kind of said they'd had enough. And obviously there 83 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 1: had been protests also, for example in Germany of people 84 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: um arguing that there, you know, civil liberties were being 85 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: infringed by the government. So there definitely is an element 86 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 1: of of lockdown fatigue, and clearly that is I think 87 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: one of the reasons why governments, for example Italy all Switzerland, 88 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,479 Speaker 1: they are trying to keep the economy alive or trying 89 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:41,480 Speaker 1: to be as targeted as possible rather than a blanket crackdown, 90 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:45,799 Speaker 1: because the more people's livelihoods are at stake, the more 91 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 1: the less likely they will be to to cooperate. If 92 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 1: you were to identify one success case in Europe. Do 93 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: you see one country potentially weathering the storm better than 94 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:03,280 Speaker 1: it's comparative neighbors. It's very difficult to say. I would 95 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:08,679 Speaker 1: say that certainly Germany and Switzerland have weathered the storm 96 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 1: better than many other countries. I mean many other countries then, 97 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: for example, um France and Spain, both in entire terms 98 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: of healthcare and in terms of um cost to the economy. 99 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 1: But that doesn't necessarily mean that that is because the 100 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: policies that they enacted were the Germany or Switzerland enacted 101 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 1: were better. It may just be that obviously they had 102 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: um more robust health care systems because they are are 103 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 1: are wealthy countries and the nature of their economies are 104 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 1: perhaps not as oriented to tourism and service sector. Then 105 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: are the areas of economic activity that the pandemic disproportionately affects, 106 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: And so thinking about these systems and that economic impact 107 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 1: from the pandemic, I mean, what are the broader plans 108 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: that European leaders are are hoping to do and have 109 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 1: already done to try and offset this negative economic impact 110 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: from a potential general lockdown that might be coming down 111 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: the road, or just in general tighter restrictions. When the 112 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: pandemic initially hit earlier this year, governments replicated, UM, we're 113 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 1: very eager to replicate Germany's model of quote sabites, which 114 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 1: are furlough programs and which basically the government peace companies 115 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: which who have to uh suspend work due to the 116 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 1: economic crisis and therefore people get paid at least partial 117 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 1: part of their salaries UM and and get laid off. 118 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: That's the idea that's been very widely used. It where 119 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: they used in Britain, it was used in France, it 120 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:54,520 Speaker 1: was used in Spain, Germany, Switzerland and Austria. Though it's 121 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 1: very common they're already before the crisis though this was 122 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: really the key own of UM of many countries response. 123 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 1: In addition, they gave out various loans interest free, free 124 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 1: or low interest loans to companies that were affected UM 125 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:16,839 Speaker 1: and then there was also a moratorium on insolvencies, so 126 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:21,200 Speaker 1: companies that were um, you know, at risk of of 127 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 1: going belly up actually were sort of got a stay 128 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: of execution. So those policies are likely to continue. There's 129 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: obviously also in a bit more less immediate but bigger impact, 130 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: there is the use seven D and fifty billion euro 131 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 1: rescue fund that's likely to sort of be more of 132 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: a driver for the recovery. But it's quite clear that 133 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: all these fiscal and also monetary policy stimuli will have 134 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 1: to be left in place, and it's now is definitely 135 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: you know, policy makers have warned now is not the 136 00:09:54,800 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: time to withdraw stibulus. Is there a worry that this 137 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:06,079 Speaker 1: stimulus cannot last the length potentially that we're looking at 138 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: for this pandemic that now that we are facing the 139 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 1: reality that we won't necessarily or potentially have a vaccine 140 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: until one, is there a concern that the stimulus just 141 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:22,560 Speaker 1: simply cannot continue for the length of time that we 142 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:26,439 Speaker 1: may be facing. Yes and no. Of course, in in 143 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,319 Speaker 1: in theory, that is always a concern, and certainly I 144 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 1: think in in Britain those where there was a dispute 145 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 1: about the expiry of the furlough program, and now in 146 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 1: the North of England the government has had to announce 147 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: new support measures for for municipalities that have gone into 148 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 1: lockdown a second time. On the other hand, you know, 149 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 1: policymakers generally, for example in Germany, have been very very 150 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 1: eager to stress that you know, these support measures are 151 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 1: not going to expire any time soon. So what might 152 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: be a successful roadmap for Europe going forward? Again, if 153 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: we're thinking about a pandemic that might be here for 154 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 1: the next at least until the end of what might 155 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:21,439 Speaker 1: be a way to look forward and prevent wider lockdowns, 156 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 1: wider restrictions and offset that negative economic impact. Well, I 157 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: think you're asking me the million dollar question that nobody 158 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 1: has the answer to. UM, certainly, I think the you know, 159 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:35,839 Speaker 1: golden way will would be to styra corpse, in which 160 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 1: you're able to keep a grip on or a lid 161 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: on infections and certainly on serious cases and deaths, and 162 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 1: at the same time manage the economy in such a 163 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 1: way that people are still as much as possible able 164 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: to go to work and live as normal lives as 165 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 1: they can. That's clearly what the government in Italy is 166 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 1: trying to do. The government in switzerlanda is as well. 167 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 1: UM Germany I think also UM is probably going to 168 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 1: try to find a middle ground somewhere, and in an 169 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 1: ideal case, French Finance Minister Lumier has said, you know that, uh, 170 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: you know, a second real lockdown is just going to 171 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 1: be incredibly costly for the economy, so they're just going 172 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: to have to try and see what works to to 173 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 1: satisfy both the economic and the health care imperatives. So 174 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 1: in terms of this recent announcement by Whales in which 175 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: everything is shut down anything considered non essential, it doesn't 176 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 1: sound necessarily like this is something many European leaders want 177 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: to do or are thinking that there is tolerance for 178 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 1: going forward, that there will be additional restrictions, but not 179 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 1: an overall lockdown approach as similar to what we saw 180 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 1: in March or April. Well, it's hard to say. Maybe, 181 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 1: of course, if if the situation, the healthcare situation becomes worse, 182 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 1: and we're already seeing you know, record infections, it gets 183 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 1: even worse in hospitals become overburdened, they may have a 184 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: little choice. That said, you know, the public is aware 185 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 1: of the economic costs that all of these these measures 186 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:21,719 Speaker 1: have had, so and of course these are are also voters, 187 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 1: so I have politicians will have to figure out how 188 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 1: to essentially square the circle. Germany never really had a 189 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: full full lockdown the way France or Spain had so 190 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 1: um and managed to get through the first wave very well. 191 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 1: So I think that there will be a politicians and 192 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 1: decision makers across across your car just going to have 193 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 1: to try and take baby steps and and do the 194 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 1: best that they can. That was Katherine Boseley, and that's 195 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 1: it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak 196 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 1: from one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit bloomberg 197 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 1: dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, 198 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: please leave us a review and a rating on Apple 199 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,719 Speaker 1: Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more 200 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 1: listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is 201 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: produced by Tophor Forheaz, Jordan Gospore, Magnus Henrickson, and me 202 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Catherine Bosley. 203 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 1: Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Rick Shine 204 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 1: and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. 205 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.