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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into the August episode of the

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Speaker 2: Sharps re Porch.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Matt Perolchi.

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Speaker 2: Guys normally see me on the Daily Juice podcast, but

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Speaker 2: we are going to give you an NFL football preview.

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Speaker 2: Raheem Palmer does a ton of work for The Ringer

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Speaker 2: and he's been kind enough to help us break down

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Speaker 2: the upcoming NFL football He's a game. How are you

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Speaker 2: great to see you. Thank you for the time today.

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Speaker 2: Another football year about to start.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks for having me on. I mean, everything's great.

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Speaker 4: I just did some F four or five training, so

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Speaker 4: I'm trying to get shape mentally, physically, and spiritually for

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Speaker 4: the football season.

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Speaker 3: So I'm excited, all right.

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Speaker 2: So we are taping this Unfortunately on the same day

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Speaker 2: that Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift announced it that they

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Speaker 2: are engaged. So I'm glad that this will come out

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Speaker 2: later because if it came out today, nobody would watch

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Speaker 2: because everybody's just talking.

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Speaker 1: About that particular story.

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Speaker 2: But as we head towards this NFL football season, what

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Speaker 2: do you do when it comes to handicapping the preseason? Like,

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Speaker 2: do you use it? Is it helpful? For you, or

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Speaker 2: do you just say, look, that was fake football. We're

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Speaker 2: gonna play real football starting in a week.

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Speaker 3: So it's not really helpful or hurtful.

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Speaker 4: But occasionally you just see certain things and they'll be

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Speaker 4: like like just a light bulb for you. You know,

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Speaker 4: one of the things that I saw this preseason, actually,

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Speaker 4: let me take that back. It is helpful. And the

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Speaker 4: reason why I will say that is because first things first,

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Speaker 4: if you look at the last couple of years, starting quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: Who doesn't don't.

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Speaker 4: Play in the preseason, they don't tend to do well

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Speaker 4: in the first half. So you look at last year

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Speaker 4: QB's in the preseason, they went one in five against

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Speaker 4: the spread in the first half and three and three

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Speaker 4: against the spread for the full game. Let's go back

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Speaker 4: the year before that, quarterbacks who didn't play in the preseason,

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Speaker 4: they were two and seven against the spread in the

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Speaker 4: first half and six and three against the spread for

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Speaker 4: the full game. So you're seeing these quarterbacks who didn't

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Speaker 4: play in the preseason and they come out a little

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Speaker 4: bit rusty and they tend to go undergirts under their

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Speaker 4: player prop. And there's non quarterbacks this year who didn't play. Now,

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Speaker 4: unfortunately this year, six of them play against each other.

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Speaker 4: So Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, they played dakt and

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Speaker 4: the Cowboys.

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Speaker 3: Neither one played. Lamar Jackson or Ravens didn't play.

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Speaker 4: They played Josh Allen he didn't play, Baker Mayfield Browns

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Speaker 4: didn't play, Michael Pennix didn't play.

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Speaker 3: But there's three more.

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Speaker 4: Matthew Stafford he never plays, Aaron Rodgers he didn't play,

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Speaker 4: and then Jarret Golf and Jered Goffin is the most

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Speaker 4: concerning because he has a new offensive coordinator. And not

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Speaker 4: only doesn't does he have a new offensive coordinator, he

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Speaker 4: lost his Hall of Fame center Frank rad Now, so

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Speaker 4: that offensive line isn't the same. So I'm really concerned

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Speaker 4: about him. And just to go back to last year,

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Speaker 4: Matthew Stafford didn't play last year. I know he never plays,

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Speaker 4: but the Rams were down thirteen to seven to the

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Speaker 4: Seahawks and ended up winning that game thirty to thirteen.

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Speaker 4: So after halftime he completely turned it on. But before

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Speaker 4: halftime he was in the same quarterback So that's one

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Speaker 4: thing I looked at. But also the other thing I

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Speaker 4: will say that I do like sometimes you just something

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Speaker 4: you'll see a player two and it'll just like it'll

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Speaker 4: be like a light bulbing ahead. And a couple of

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Speaker 4: them that I saw where I watched the Kansas City

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Speaker 4: Chiefs against the Bears, and there's always talk about how

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl losers they have that hangover. It ain't gonna

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Speaker 4: be no hangover because I mean, it ain't gonna be

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Speaker 4: no hangover because Patrick Mahomes it looked like me and

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Speaker 4: you were playing defense out there, and I saw that

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Speaker 4: he was firing on all cylinders. Obviously you got Rashid Rice,

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Speaker 4: who's not suspended right now, you got Hollywood brown Back.

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Speaker 4: I think this Chiefs offense is going to be a

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Speaker 4: misseason form. But on the other side of the coin,

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Speaker 4: I watched that Bengals defense. Oh my god, that Money

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Speaker 4: Night game against the Commanders. I swear to guy, every

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Speaker 4: single play was explosive. So you'll see things like that

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Speaker 4: and it'll just be a sign of things to come.

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Speaker 4: But then obviously there's other teams who just aren't trying,

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Speaker 4: so you kind of have to just you know, you

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Speaker 4: pay attention to certain things, but then other things you

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Speaker 4: throw out. But that was the Bengals first team defense

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Speaker 4: and they sucked. So I don't see them getting it together.

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Speaker 1: What do you do?

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Speaker 2: Okay, So, like Joe flaccol played a little bit, but

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Speaker 2: Joe Flacco didn't play a lot in the preseason. Does

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Speaker 2: that matter to you if they don't play very much,

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Speaker 2: because the Bengals are starting to they're trying to start fast.

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Speaker 2: The last two seasons under Zach Taylor have been disasters

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Speaker 2: and it's come back to bite them in December last year. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: the survivor story.

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Speaker 1: We all know.

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Speaker 2: Everybody on the Bengals and the Patriots one on the

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Speaker 2: road in Week number one, the Bengals are on the

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Speaker 2: road against the Browns, who will start Joe Flacco who

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Speaker 2: didn't play very much. Do you think that's a Bengal

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Speaker 2: first half play because well, the offense did see Joe

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Speaker 2: Burrow play a lot in the preseason and Joe Flacco

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Speaker 2: did not play much for the Browns.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's definitely a good way to handicap

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Speaker 4: it because I do think you know a lot of

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Speaker 4: these quarterbacks they're not playing much or they haven't played

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Speaker 4: at all, then they're rusty. And I mean you got

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Speaker 4: to remember the quarterbacks aren't getting hit, they're not get

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Speaker 4: it in the scrimmages and the practices, so it still

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Speaker 4: takes a little bit to get used to. And I

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Speaker 4: think we saw this over the course of the last

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Speaker 4: three seasons. I gave you guys the numbers. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I think they're pretty telling. I mean, even though it's

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Speaker 4: a small sample size, I think we've seen enough of

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Speaker 4: a sample size to say these quarterbacks aren't playing it well.

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Speaker 2: I want to take a step back and talk about

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Speaker 2: the industry for a second, Rahiem, because you've been doing

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Speaker 2: this for a long time. What is what is it

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Speaker 2: like for you when it comes to in the legalized market?

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Speaker 2: And obviously Nevada has been legal for a long time,

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Speaker 2: but I know you used to come in to town

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Speaker 2: to do a lot of work and do things and

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Speaker 2: get down on certain games, and then legalization happened, And

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Speaker 2: obviously now you are living in Philly at times and

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Speaker 2: bouncing around into the country to different states which are

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Speaker 2: now legal. And obviously it's now in thirty nine states

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Speaker 2: where sports betting is legal.

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Speaker 1: What's it like for you and how is things?

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Speaker 2: How has life changed for you as a gambler in

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Speaker 2: the legalized world.

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Speaker 4: So it was great initially, like that first couple of

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Speaker 4: years was amazing. It was all types of free money

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Speaker 4: thrown being thrown around, all types of free bets, and

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Speaker 4: then you quickly realize that none of these books they

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Speaker 4: want winning players. And I think it's it's worse than

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Speaker 4: it was before, Like it's almost I mean, I'm fortunate

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Speaker 4: to be able to have a job in sports betting,

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Speaker 4: so I wouldn't have had that without legalization, right all

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Speaker 4: of us, Yes, yeah, but I mean in terms of

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Speaker 4: just actually betting, it's horrible now.

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Speaker 3: Like I mean, like nobody will take a bet.

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Speaker 4: I mean, obviously you have Circa obviously, I mean Caesars

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Speaker 4: will take action from some people, but I mean there's

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Speaker 4: people being cut off at Caesars as well. But there's

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Speaker 4: just a lot of books to where are you being

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Speaker 4: limited to ten dollars? You're being limited to a dollar

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Speaker 4: eighty seven, And it's just like y'all are cleaning up

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Speaker 4: with these same game parlays twenty five to thirty percent

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Speaker 4: hold and you can't even make a five hundred dollars

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Speaker 4: bet on an NFL game.

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Speaker 3: It's it's just frankly absurd.

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Speaker 2: It's frustrating, I think for a lot of people who

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Speaker 2: have who saw it before, and now see it the

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Speaker 2: way it is now and thinking that this is going

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Speaker 2: to be this great opportunity. But come betting in September

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Speaker 2: when we see the bonuses, when we see these books

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Speaker 2: roll out the welcome matt essentially because they know the

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Speaker 2: first two weeks of the NFL football season is the

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Speaker 2: most heavily bet time of the entire calendar. Do you

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Speaker 2: have opportunities? Do you shop for books you haven't used before?

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Speaker 2: Do you think there's opportunities in September at the front

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Speaker 2: of the NFL season when the books are more willing

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Speaker 2: to take action.

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Speaker 4: Honestly, at this point, it doesn't even feel like a

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Speaker 4: lot of like they're given. They're not even giving the

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Speaker 4: level of promos that they used to get. I mean

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Speaker 4: that's what I'm seeing. Like I'm just not seeing like

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Speaker 4: like there was a book out there and it was

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Speaker 4: the greatest thing ever, and I kind of, you know,

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Speaker 4: I was.

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Speaker 3: They have the fan duel connection, so I can't really

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Speaker 3: talk about both too much. But there was a.

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Speaker 4: Book out there back in like twenty twenty where, well

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Speaker 4: this is probably twenty nineteen. Literally they had a promo

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Speaker 4: that if your team was winning an NBA game by

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Speaker 4: the end of.

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Speaker 3: The third quarter, they would pay you out.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's just like it was stuff like that,

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Speaker 4: or it was just all types of free play. Like

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Speaker 4: I have friends who don't even get free play anymore, right,

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Speaker 4: and they're not even like big winners or anything like that.

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Speaker 4: So it's just it feels like they're just without New states.

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Speaker 4: They're pulling a lot of the promo spend a ton

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Speaker 4: now out here in Vegas. Obviously we never got. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: we never got that.

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Speaker 1: We never got that here, So it's here we never got.

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Speaker 3: And I mean obviously I was in Pennsylvania for half

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Speaker 3: the time, so.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, out here in Vegas, it's kind of like

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Speaker 4: you got a couple of books that you can go to.

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Speaker 4: Obviously you got CIRCA, you got Caesars, you got MGM,

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Speaker 4: you got stations. But it's not Yea, you got Westgate's.

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Speaker 4: It's not a lot of it's just not a lot

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Speaker 4: of competition here, which is kind of unfortunate because I

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Speaker 4: remember the days where I could stay at the Cosmopolitan

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Speaker 4: and they were CG technology and then I can run

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Speaker 4: across the street to William Hill and then I can

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Speaker 4: go across to Caesars, or I can go across to

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Speaker 4: what else was there, and there were just so many

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Speaker 4: books and now it's just it. Caesar is an MGM

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Speaker 4: own an entire strip pretty much, and I.

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Speaker 2: Think hopefully there's going to be I mean, here in town,

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Speaker 2: there's a new book called Boomers which is starting and

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Speaker 2: that's going to be a local joint.

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Speaker 1: So hopefully we do see.

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Speaker 2: Some more innovation. Missouri coming online in December. It's going

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Speaker 2: to be an interesting market to look at because of

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Speaker 2: Saint Louis and Kansas City on either side of the state.

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Speaker 2: So you've got some pretty big population centers that could

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Speaker 2: drive handle in Missouri.

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Speaker 1: So we'll see how that state does.

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Speaker 2: But obviously we're still waiting on some of the bigger

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Speaker 2: states population wise, Texas, California, Florida and whatnot for that.

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Speaker 2: So in September, the book the lines can be a

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Speaker 2: little bit soft. The books don't know a whole lot, right.

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Speaker 2: Everybody's in price discovery mode. Everybody's trying to figure out

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Speaker 2: who is good and who is not. It's why Survivor

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Speaker 2: is such a difficult thing to come through because of

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Speaker 2: how complicated and difficult September is. But how do you

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Speaker 2: look to approach and attack the NFL in September.

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Speaker 4: So first things first, I do look at the market,

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Speaker 4: and obviously I do have a model, and my model

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Speaker 4: is it is.

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Speaker 3: Based off last year's data.

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Speaker 4: But I think when you're looking at these division games,

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Speaker 4: obviously the division games are key because divisional home underdogs

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Speaker 4: in Week one, I mean, they've historically been a monster.

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Speaker 4: Like that is that is where you want to look

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Speaker 4: in terms of, you know, where I can get a

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Speaker 4: bet down, Like I think divisional home underdogs since twenty ten,

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Speaker 4: twenty two and seven seventy five percent against the spread

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Speaker 4: in Week one since twenty ten, So that is a

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Speaker 4: place to look. But obviously you really want to look

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Speaker 4: at some of the additions, some of the takeaways.

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Speaker 3: Who do you think got better? Who got worse?

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Speaker 4: I think one of the things that I like to

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Speaker 4: do is obviously I think all of us play season

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Speaker 4: win totals, yep. A lot of times those are the

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Speaker 4: teams that I'm looking to buy on or sell on

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Speaker 4: week one. So if I have, you know, a season

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Speaker 4: win total on a team going under, a lot of times,

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Speaker 4: I'm probably playing against them week one. If they're playing

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Speaker 4: another team that I think I'm going to buy on

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Speaker 4: now it's not always the case because it is obviously

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Speaker 4: a market and there's a point spread, But you know,

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Speaker 4: I find myself approaching things that way as well.

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Speaker 2: I think also the way I tend to look at it,

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Speaker 2: and I think historically speaking, there are teams that start

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Speaker 2: fast and there are teams that start slow. I mean

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Speaker 2: the Bengals being obviously the most obvious team that has

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Speaker 2: started slowly and they want to change that narrative as

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Speaker 2: to what they're going to look like. But I think

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Speaker 2: also for teams like let's talk about the Patriots for

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Speaker 2: a second, because that's my team, the Patriots. If you

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Speaker 2: look at ESPN bet or you look at some other books,

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Speaker 2: I mean, people are betting the over on the win

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Speaker 2: total for the Patriots, like it's already happened, and as

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Speaker 2: a Patriot fan, I'm not in love with that. And

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Speaker 2: they play the Raiders in Week one out of the

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Speaker 2: gate with Pete Carroll, a revenge game for him former

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Speaker 2: Patriot head coach. Obviously, we know what happened in the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl with the Seahawks against the Patriots, and we

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Speaker 2: got askedjin genty and we have a new running back

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Speaker 2: in a new offense in Chip Kelly, who's from New

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Speaker 2: Hampshire coming back. I feel like that could be kind

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Speaker 2: of in your point. You bet the over on the

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Speaker 2: Patriot win total, but in Week one you take the

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Speaker 2: Raiders plus two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Is that like, is that a fair assessment?

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Speaker 3: It is, I mean it is, but I.

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Speaker 4: Mean I think for me, I was looking at it like,

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Speaker 4: let's just say, I want to fee I want to

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Speaker 4: fade the Saints this year. I think the Saints have

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Speaker 4: the worst quarterback room in the league. I'm a really

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Speaker 4: high on Arizona Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: Oo, Okay, I.

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Speaker 3: Love the Arizona Cardinals.

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Speaker 4: As you see that line went from four and a

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Speaker 4: half up to six in some places.

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Speaker 3: So I think that is a team that kind of

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Speaker 3: fits the bill of ur.

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Speaker 4: There's a lot of sharps on the Arizona Cardinals to

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Speaker 4: go over their win total, and they're buying on them

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Speaker 4: week one.

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Speaker 2: I don't hate that. I mean, milely good turn with

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals is Kyler Murray. It's their quarterback. One is

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Speaker 2: health to his play. And but defensively, people have said

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Speaker 2: they've taken some big steps Defensively, They're gonna better than

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Speaker 2: people think. Defensively, they'll run the ball more effectively, and

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Speaker 2: then may be that team out west than no one's

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Speaker 2: talking about that could jump up and surprise some people.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned Matthew Stafford not playing in the regular season.

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Speaker 1: What is your outlook for the Rams? Let's stay in

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Speaker 1: that same division, because I bet the forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: already yet plus one ten. That number has flipped to

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Speaker 1: minus one ten or miss one twenty at certain books

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Speaker 1: and then shot up to one fifty to plus one fifty,

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Speaker 1: where I was annoyed because I got it at plus

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Speaker 1: one ten.

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Speaker 2: But Rams money came in late, as if they know

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Speaker 2: something about Matthew Stafford. What is your outlook on the Rams?

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Speaker 3: I think the Rams are overrated, like I really do.

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Speaker 4: I think Matthew Stafford he's I mean, he's been a

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Speaker 4: great quarterback, but I think the wheels.

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Speaker 3: Are starting to fall off.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you're starting to see, like I mean,

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Speaker 4: he's getting up there in age and now he's coming

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Speaker 4: into the season with a bad back, and now it's

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Speaker 4: just like at any given time, this whole thing can

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Speaker 4: fall apart. So I didn't necessarily play them under but

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Speaker 4: they are a team that I have my eye on,

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Speaker 4: and I could see them slipping and I'm higher on

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Speaker 4: the Cardinals than I am on the Rams. And personally,

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Speaker 4: there's a part of me that once Houston Week one,

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Speaker 4: because if Matthew Stafford is coming into the season with

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Speaker 4: a bad back, he got an epidoro and now you

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Speaker 4: probably have to play one of the best defenses in

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Speaker 4: the league and you didn't play preseason. I just I

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Speaker 4: think that's a spot where Houston, especially on a teaser

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Speaker 4: and I'm not a big teaser guy. And that's another

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Speaker 4: thing that goes back to our first timeres about the

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Speaker 4: state of sports betting. You can no longer get minus

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Speaker 4: one ten on teasers. I think there's one book out

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Speaker 4: there ten that's gone.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a dinosaur that's gone.

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Speaker 3: You can barely get one twenty. Now.

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Speaker 4: I think there's one book that gives you one twenty.

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Speaker 4: I think everybody else is one twenty five, thirty even,

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Speaker 4: But yes, so, I mean that's that's another thing about

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Speaker 4: the state of legalized sports betting. But I think when

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Speaker 4: it comes to the Houston Texans, I think that's a

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Speaker 4: great teaser leg over under forty four and a half

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Speaker 4: Texans catching two and a half, one of the best

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Speaker 4: neefers in the league. They're playing a quarterback who is

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Speaker 4: coming off of epidural in a bad bat. I think

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Speaker 4: they keep this within the teaser number and they probably

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Speaker 4: even win this game out right.

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Speaker 2: I think with teasers that is such an interesting thing

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Speaker 2: from a book perspective, is that And this comes from

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Speaker 2: Dave Sherripan, my my co host on BVB, who used

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Speaker 2: to always say that, look at books who are afraid

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Speaker 2: to take teasers. It doesn't make any sense because yes,

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Speaker 2: the sharps ex one you know in parentheses, are the

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00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:06,080
Speaker 2: ones that would come in and really hammer you. But

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00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,800
Speaker 2: you want that action because it loses so often you

348
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Speaker 2: it's more difficult to win. And even though there's like

349
00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:16,720
Speaker 2: this new theory that's out there that everyone can win

350
00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:18,960
Speaker 2: betting teasers, that's not actually true.

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Speaker 1: It still is.

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Speaker 2: It's a fun bet to make. I'll give it to you.

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Speaker 2: But it's not like it's an automatic win if you

354
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Speaker 2: tease a game or tease you know, two different games together.

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Speaker 4: Right, Yes, it's not at all, especially in the modern NFL,

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Speaker 4: where you have more teams going for it on fourth down,

357
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Speaker 4: more teams going going for two. It's actually scary, Like

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Speaker 4: I like, honestly, I've quit teasers a couple of years ago,

359
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Speaker 4: Like I literally just I just I'm like, I can't

360
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Speaker 4: play them. And then because I was betting so big,

361
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Speaker 4: it got to the point where the juice added up.

362
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Speaker 4: Like if you like, it's one thing, if you have

363
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Speaker 4: fifty dollars or one hundred dollars on a teaser, I

364
00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:58,800
Speaker 4: mean your juice is what ten dollars or something like that, right,

365
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,200
Speaker 4: I bet a teas ones for ten thousand dollars.

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Speaker 1: Is expensive.

367
00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:08,720
Speaker 4: That's an expensive expensive is crazy, Like I can't pay

368
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Speaker 4: all his juice.

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00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:11,120
Speaker 3: Like and I just I was like, you know what,

370
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 3: I quit. Yeah, Like, I just I couldn't do it.

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Speaker 2: I am a sucker for a same game teaser. Okay,

372
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie. I absolutely love doing it. I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to tell you that it's the most intelligent

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Speaker 2: way of gambling, and it's not the most you know,

375
00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:27,920
Speaker 2: so often I'm sitting there at the end of a game,

376
00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:30,720
Speaker 2: sweating out of total either an over or an under,

377
00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:31,640
Speaker 2: and I've got the.

378
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,560
Speaker 1: Side right, but the total burns me or vice versa.

379
00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:36,920
Speaker 2: Like I've teased it up to nine from a three

380
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,320
Speaker 2: point number and gone over nine, so I cross get

381
00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:40,560
Speaker 2: out for three cross seven.

382
00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:41,920
Speaker 1: I'm sitting on nine.

383
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,520
Speaker 2: And I'm just sweating, and I'm going, oh, like no

384
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,280
Speaker 2: field goal, no field goal, Like, don't put it to ten.

385
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Speaker 2: So it's not that easy. Like everybody thinks it's like

386
00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:52,359
Speaker 2: an automatic deb it's not.

387
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Speaker 4: And the public and the crazy thing about the public

388
00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:58,080
Speaker 4: is the public is not just teasing two games, yea.

389
00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:01,920
Speaker 4: They want to tease four, five, and six like so

390
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,439
Speaker 4: it's just like they just need to. I don't know,

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00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:06,480
Speaker 4: I just I just think they should be a little

392
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Speaker 4: bit more fair to the player.

393
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Speaker 2: I would agree with you. And two leg teasers can

394
00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,240
Speaker 2: be profitable. The long teaser meth that everybody knows it

395
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,640
Speaker 2: now and so do the books. So they play defense

396
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,400
Speaker 2: now and don't tell me a two and a half

397
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 2: or three and a half point numbers not a teaser number,

398
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:21,600
Speaker 2: because they do look to do that and keep it

399
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 2: below ten or keep it below nine, trying to keep you,

400
00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,000
Speaker 2: you know, keep their their edge when it comes to

401
00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:29,639
Speaker 2: teasing games. So there's all sorts of ways that the

402
00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 2: books play defense. And juice is the other one that

403
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 2: they make it really expensive for you to go. And

404
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:36,800
Speaker 2: even in Vegas, I mean, like I thought forever we'd

405
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Speaker 2: have you know, mis one twenty teasers and even the

406
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,280
Speaker 2: sharp books here in town have gone to one thirty.

407
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:43,719
Speaker 1: It's like, what are we doing on a two leg teaser?

408
00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:44,439
Speaker 1: One thirty?

409
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 2: But that's the price, and that's how they're they're protecting

410
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,879
Speaker 2: themselves when it comes to that. So give me a

411
00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 2: win total that you have bet already that you like

412
00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:55,720
Speaker 2: that maybe is not.

413
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:57,959
Speaker 1: We haven't talked about it yet. Give me a win

414
00:18:58,000 --> 00:18:58,600
Speaker 1: total that you like.

415
00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:04,240
Speaker 3: Let's go with. I got a list here, I got a.

416
00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:07,040
Speaker 1: List, right. You like the Cardinals?

417
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,840
Speaker 4: Right, I say the Cardinals. You know what, let's go.

418
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,960
Speaker 4: This is kind of like an adjusted win total. I

419
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:17,080
Speaker 4: don't think I've given this out anywhere else. Let's go

420
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:18,639
Speaker 4: Vikings under nine and a half wins.

421
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,640
Speaker 1: Oh my, you're not a KOC believer.

422
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:28,440
Speaker 4: So the biggest thing is that they forced thirty three

423
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:33,760
Speaker 4: takeaways last year, first in the NFL plus twelve turnover differential.

424
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:37,880
Speaker 4: You got a rookie quarterback coming in that's already going

425
00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,239
Speaker 4: to flip on his head nine in one on one

426
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Speaker 4: score games.

427
00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 1: Yes, they were great last year.

428
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Speaker 4: You combine all three of those things and the defense

429
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:50,120
Speaker 4: is probably not gonna be as good.

430
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Speaker 3: I just I think it has a recipefore an under.

431
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Speaker 1: Oh, I'm with you.

432
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Speaker 2: I just I've talked to enough people that believe that

433
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,040
Speaker 2: JJ McCarthy could like not just the comeback player of

434
00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,920
Speaker 2: the year, but like MVP type numbers for JJ McCarthy,

435
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 2: which I don't.

436
00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 1: Necessarily agree with, but they think the koc.

437
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 2: Did it last year with a quarterback not nearly as

438
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 2: talented as he's got now. And as long as JJ

439
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 2: stays healthy with the receiving cord that he's got in

440
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,199
Speaker 2: the running game, they're going to have that the Vikings

441
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,479
Speaker 2: are going to put up big numbers on everybody. I'm

442
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,479
Speaker 2: not necessarily a believer in that, but the Vikings defense

443
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:29,400
Speaker 2: was good last year, and frankly the division. I don't

444
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 2: know where the Packers are going to be. I know

445
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 2: the Bears have a ton of question marks, and you

446
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:37,040
Speaker 2: brought up the Lions. I just watched the final episode

447
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,400
Speaker 2: of The Quarterback last night to kind of refresh where

448
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 2: I was, and you know, that five turnover game against

449
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 2: the Commanders was wild to watch because Jared Goff played

450
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,400
Speaker 2: horrendously and that was with Ben Johnson.

451
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 3: You know, I think he had it. I think he

452
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:54,359
Speaker 3: was concussed in that game.

453
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:56,480
Speaker 1: He got smacked on the interception he did.

454
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 4: Yep, it's so crazy. I like this under too. This

455
00:20:59,920 --> 00:21:01,880
Speaker 4: was another one I was gonna get. Like they're right

456
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:03,879
Speaker 4: next to each other on my list. I like the

457
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 4: Lions under ten and a half wins, Like, I think.

458
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 2: That's a good play. I think it's a good bet.

459
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 2: I think I think the Vikings. But if you don't

460
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 2: like the Vikings, you don't like the Lions. Who wins

461
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:19,159
Speaker 2: the division? Like, so is it are? You're going Bears

462
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 2: and Ben Johnson?

463
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 1: Year one, it's.

464
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 4: Bears or Packers, one of those two, Like, like, I

465
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,399
Speaker 4: like the Bears over, Like it's so crazy, I'm playing

466
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 4: almost the whole division, but I like the Bears over

467
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 4: and I've really I've really liked this Lions under seven

468
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 4: to two and one score games. Like everybody talks about

469
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,360
Speaker 4: how the Lions defense got banged up last year twenty

470
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 4: four offin of just the games lost six worst injury

471
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 4: luck on defense like the last twenty five years, but

472
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:48,640
Speaker 4: people don't remember that they had. They were like the

473
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 4: second they had the second few wast injuries on offense,

474
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 4: so all of their injury luck came on came on offense.

475
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 4: But not on defense, and without Ben Johnson and the

476
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:05,120
Speaker 4: fact that Frank ragnow retired Kevin Zeitler left, They've gone

477
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 4: from a top tier offensive line to you know, maybe

478
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,360
Speaker 4: middle of the pack, maybe top ten. And then you're

479
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 4: seven to two and one score games and they won

480
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 4: four games when trailing or tied within the twenty seconds

481
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,399
Speaker 4: of the game. And this year they're only going to

482
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 4: play ten indoor games compared to fourteen or the last eighteen.

483
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 4: Like if you look at the Lions schedule, yeah, the Lions,

484
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 4: Like honestly, they start the season off against Green Bay

485
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 4: and then they play the Bears, the Ravens, the Browns,

486
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 4: the Bengals, and the Chiefs. They could almost be out

487
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 4: of it, Like that could be three and three, that

488
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 4: could be a losing record, Like they could almost be

489
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 4: out of it right there.

490
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 1: Possibly. Yeah, look, I think it's gonna be.

491
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 2: That division is so interesting to me just because of

492
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 2: the topsy turvy nature of the NFL and how you know,

493
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 2: last year, every year there are four teams that missed

494
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 2: the playoffs last year that will be in the playoffs

495
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 2: this year. So I'm always on the hunt for finding

496
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 2: those four teams, Like, what are the four teams that

497
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 2: were out that will now be in. And it feels

498
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 2: like the Bears could be that one of those four

499
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 2: teams that makes the playoffs. If Caleb Williams takes that

500
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,360
Speaker 2: big jump, if their defense performs, and if Ben Johnson

501
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 2: has you know, that quarterback whisper mentality or that ability

502
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 2: to bring Caleb up to where we thought he could be. Okay,

503
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 2: maybe the Bears are going to be the sleeper team

504
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 2: in that division to go ahead and win. And if

505
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 2: the hand injury it's not the throwing hand, but still

506
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 2: hand injury for Jordan Love, if that turns out to

507
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,959
Speaker 2: be a more significant thing, all right, maybe the Packers

508
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 2: are going to take a step back.

509
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 1: And it's the Bears division here, which would.

510
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 2: Be amazing given where they were last year with the

511
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 2: number of sacks they had. But they invested in the

512
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 2: offensive line. The one thing about the Bears everyone's forgetting

513
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 2: that's not going to be the same offensive line that

514
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 2: Caleb played behind last year. They invested big capital in

515
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 2: that line, and I think and Ben Johnson talked about it.

516
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 2: He said, look it we're not going to make the

517
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 2: mistake that we've made in previous years. Other teams I'm

518
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 2: not going to forget about the offensive line and his

519
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 2: center and guards. I mean, that's a hell of an

520
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:10,919
Speaker 2: offensive line for the payer, So I don't hate that

521
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 2: at all. All Right, let's talk about the team that

522
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 2: everyone hates me. But well, I got two I got

523
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 2: two questions. The first is the New York Giants. I

524
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 2: am way down on the New York Giants. I have

525
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 2: them under five and a half wins. I do not

526
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 2: think they're going to be competitive. I think they're going

527
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 2: to be playing Jackson Dart early, and I think this

528
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 2: is going to be a developmental year for him. Whether

529
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,679
Speaker 2: or not that's Brian dable the next season to develop

530
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 2: him or not that will be a debate. But where

531
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 2: are you on the Giants? And what is, in my mind,

532
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 2: the hardest schedule.

533
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 1: In the NFL.

534
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 4: This is very difficult for me because I like the roster.

535
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 4: I particularly like the pass rush. Dexter, Lawrence kvon Thibodeau,

536
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 4: Brian Burns, Abdor corner to that, and I think that

537
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 4: pass rush is going to keep them in some games.

538
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 4: I think the obviously you add some guys in the secondary,

539
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 4: and I think that makes their secondary stronger.

540
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 3: I think they can be competitive.

541
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 4: The problem is, like you said, they have the worst

542
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 4: schedule in the NFL, Like it's like it just almost

543
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 4: feels unfair. Yeah, I agree on the road to the

544
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,679
Speaker 4: Commanders in the Cowboys, then you have the Chiefs and

545
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 4: the Chargers, and then I mean, you're on the road

546
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 4: in New Orleans, which is.

547
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 3: The only game.

548
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 1: You better win that game.

549
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 3: If you don't win that game, when do you win?

550
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 1: Right? Yep?

551
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 3: But I like them week one.

552
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:34,639
Speaker 1: Do you like your Week one outright or the points?

553
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:36,639
Speaker 3: Probably both?

554
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 4: Oh my, I mean I'm not necessarily picking them to

555
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 4: win Week one, but I think they cover that number.

556
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 2: Okay, number doesn't make any sense too high.

557
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 4: Look at what the game if you look at their

558
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 4: games last year, so obviously these two teams played last year.

559
00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's divisional. I mean it's six. It's pain six everywhere.

560
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 2: At the time of us taping here, it's Commander's minus six.

561
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 2: They're at home, they're on the road. I mean, if

562
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,919
Speaker 2: the Commanders follow up an NFC Championship Game appearance with

563
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 2: an opening loss to the Giants, that's not gonna sit

564
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,199
Speaker 2: well in that market. Like that's a huge stub of

565
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 2: a toe for the Commanders. They lose won last year.

566
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 4: Last year they played Week two on the road. The

567
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 4: Commanders were laying the Commanders were laying one. The Giants

568
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 4: should have won that game. They lost eighteen to twenty

569
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 4: one because their their field goal kicker.

570
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 1: Got hurt right right.

571
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 4: And they literally couldn't kick extra points and they couldn't

572
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 4: kick a field goal, so they couldn't kick a field

573
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 4: the game winning field goal. They went for it on

574
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 4: fourth and two. They didn't get it. The Commanders come

575
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 4: down and kicked the game winning field goal. They play

576
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,919
Speaker 4: again on November third, they lose by four. How do

577
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,360
Speaker 4: you get the seven seven?

578
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 3: Yeah?

579
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,479
Speaker 4: West seven is six six and a half? Now, how

580
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 4: do you get there? Other than just perception?

581
00:26:57,520 --> 00:26:59,400
Speaker 1: Right? I mean they have gotten better obviously.

582
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 2: I mean they've added receiving receivers, They've added some running

583
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 2: backs that they're obviously looking to run more. With Jayden Daniels,

584
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,680
Speaker 2: they're looking to be more explosive in the passing game

585
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 2: this year, you know, going into a year two with him,

586
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 2: to see what he's going to look like and what

587
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 2: is the follow up. So I think a lot of

588
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 2: people are wondering, is there a regression to do Teams

589
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 2: now have film on Jadon Daniels or is this team

590
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 2: gonna keep on getting better and better. I think they're

591
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 2: going to score on anyone in the NFL. I just

592
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 2: don't think they stop anybody. And so the Giants offense,

593
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 2: I mean, it's Russell Wilson, it's Elik Neighbors.

594
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 1: Let's see what they can do to stop that.

595
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:35,919
Speaker 3: That's got to be better than Daniel Jones.

596
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 2: Better, you would think, I don't know, though, I'm not

597
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 2: positive you would think, but I'm not positive it's going

598
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,920
Speaker 2: to be given the way Russ played in Pittsburgh last year.

599
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 4: And then I mean the Commanders they were twenty of

600
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 4: twenty three on fourth down.

601
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 1: Oh that's amazing.

602
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 4: You get really like if you get any regression, and

603
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:57,880
Speaker 4: then six and nine in the postseason, if they get

604
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:02,959
Speaker 4: any fourth down regression, that that's a that's a game changer.

605
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 4: So it's just like, I just this line is probably

606
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 4: one of the most perplexing lines of Week one.

607
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 1: Take the dog of you if you get back to seven.

608
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 2: I think seven is a good number to take for

609
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 2: or maybe even buy it up if you want, or

610
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 2: tease the Commanders down. If you think they're gonna win

611
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 2: the game. You can pull them down to basically a

612
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 2: pick and take the Commanders to win the game. The

613
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 2: other team is your team, and everyone is all up

614
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 2: in arms with me over this. I've taken the Cowboys

615
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 2: to win the East at plus six fifty. It's been

616
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 2: over twenty years since a team in the NFC East

617
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 2: has gone back to back. It was the Eagles in

618
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 2: three to four. The Eagles won it last year, the

619
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 2: Cowboys won it the year before. Everyone thought going into

620
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 2: last year it was gonna be the Cowboys again, and

621
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 2: then they fell on their face.

622
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: Everyone thinks it's the Eagles again.

623
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 2: And I think six point fifty is really a good

624
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: value to jump on the Cowboys. I know it's your team,

625
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 2: but how are you How do you feel about Deck

626
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 2: and the Boys?

627
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 4: So I took them over seven and a half wins

628
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 4: just because you know, we talked about this before we

629
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 4: went on air. I just think the baseline for Dak

630
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 4: Prescott is very, very high, like you have a high

631
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 4: floor when he's playing. You know, since he's coming to

632
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 4: the league. You're talking about a guy who's won thirteen games,

633
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 4: nine games, ten games, eight games. He got injured and

634
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 4: they only won six. They won twelve they went twelve

635
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 4: and five three years in a row, and then the

636
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 4: Cowboys won seven last year and he got injured as well.

637
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 4: So the thing that we've seen as consistent is that

638
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 4: when Dak Prescott is in a Cowboys unit form and

639
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 4: he's playing, they're going to their baseline is eight nine

640
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 4: wins minimum. So I like them over seven and a

641
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 4: half wins. I'm just kind of concerned with the run

642
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 4: game and I'm concerned with the defense. Like, actually, yeah,

643
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 4: I don't know what you get from them now.

644
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 1: I think you get an offense.

645
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 2: It's gonna throw the football a ton with George Pickens

646
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 2: and Ceedee Lamb, and I think that they're gonna look

647
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 2: to pick up you know, I think Dak throws for

648
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 2: over four thousand yards with his eyes closed, and I

649
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 2: think they're gonna look to outscore people. And I do

650
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 2: think the Micah Parsons deal, I think Micah comes back.

651
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 2: I do think they get that deal done before the

652
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 2: start of the year, and I do think he's gonna

653
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 2: have a decent season, if not a great out of

654
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 2: the gate first month. I think eventually he'll get into

655
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 2: form and help that Cowboys team come By the time

656
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 2: we get that get to Halloween, I would expect that

657
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 2: defense to be better. Then they'll they won't be good,

658
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 2: but they'll be good enough to keep them in games

659
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 2: to allow that offense to go and win.

660
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 4: You know what, I think you make a good point though,

661
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 4: because they did at Matt Everfus. He's not a good

662
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 4: head coach, but his defense does specialize in turnovers. And

663
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 4: you saw the last year. I mean, obviously they regress

664
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 4: heavily in the turnover differential because the year before that

665
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 4: they were first in EPA game from turnovers. Last year

666
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 4: it was just a total departure from that. So if

667
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 4: he can just you know, get this team back towards

668
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 4: you know, forcing some turnovers and you know, trade Trayvon

669
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 4: Days could come back healthy, Michael Parson could come back healthy.

670
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 3: I think their floor is really really high.

671
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 4: So and actually I like the Eagles under I like

672
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 4: the Eagles, like I know, I'm betting against human human

673
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 4: achievement a lot, but I've really liked the Eagles under

674
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 4: eleven and a half wins.

675
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 3: So your bet when the Cowboys definitely makes sense.

676
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 2: If Hurts gets hurt or if Barkley gets hurt, and

677
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 2: both those guys stayed healthy all year and they play

678
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 2: a physical brand of football. They were fortunate with a

679
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 2: lot of luck in the turnover world. I'm sorry in

680
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 2: the injury world and turnover no matter two. But I

681
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 2: just I don't think the injury luck is going to

682
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 2: be there for the Eagles this year. I think they're

683
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 2: going to suffer some pretty significant injuries and it's going

684
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 2: to cause them a lot of problems to come in

685
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 2: and do that. All right, Before I let you go here,

686
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 2: one final topic that I want to address. If somebody's

687
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 2: in a contest, whether it be the Circa Million Circus survivor,

688
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 2: whether it be Westgate, whether it be a different, you know,

689
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: a local contest that they are in, how do you

690
00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 2: approach betting in contests versus betting for real when it

691
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 2: comes to dollars.

692
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 4: So I think if you're betting for real, at least

693
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 4: in the NFL, you kind of want to get out early,

694
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 4: and often you just want to get out early.

695
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 3: You want to get the best of the number. If

696
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 3: you can't get the best of.

697
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 4: The number early in the week, I think you're probably

698
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 4: you know, you're betting towards game time. Maybe if you're

699
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 4: because the calculus kind of changes because obviously the limits

700
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 4: grow right close to the game time, so you're kind

701
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 4: of balancing getting the best of the number early in

702
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 4: the week versus at the end of the week. You're

703
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 4: also getting injury news and you're trying to maximize your

704
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 4: value depending on how much you bet, Like I'm pretty

705
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 4: sure Billy Walters as his time where he's just betting

706
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 4: on Sunday, right because that's when the higher limits is.

707
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 4: So you have to balance all of that and a contest,

708
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 4: you also have to be cognizant of who everybody else

709
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 4: is betting, and not that you don't have to do

710
00:32:56,640 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 4: that when you're betting for real, but you're you're actively

711
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 4: competing against these people. So there will be a time

712
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 4: where you know a side is going to be public,

713
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 4: and I think a good public side is probably the

714
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 4: Bengals against the Browns in Week one, Like who wants

715
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 4: to bet on met on Joe Flaco versus Joe Burrow,

716
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 4: So I imagine that's going to be a heavy public side.

717
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 3: You kind of want to stay away from that one.

718
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 2: I mean, with Survivor picks, I mean, you're going you've

719
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 2: got to have some serious stones to go back and

720
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 2: take the Bengals again. If you're in the in the

721
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 2: Circus Survivor contest and you have a thousand dollars entry

722
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 2: and you're going to go back to the well with

723
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 2: the Bengals again in week one, I don't know if

724
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 2: you can do that. I mean that that play.

725
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 4: It's not just for Survivor, it's for circum Millions too,

726
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 4: because if everybody's going to be you know, maybe what's

727
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 4: another one that's probably like, honestly, Washington might be a

728
00:33:56,760 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 4: Denver Washington, those might those might be the biggest sides. Yeah,

729
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 4: and you kind of want to avoid those and hope

730
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 4: they lose. And circum Millions and in the.

731
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 2: Survivor, Yeah, I can't believe the Denver number already is eight.

732
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 2: I mean we're here, we're taping this on the twenty

733
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 2: sixth of August, and the numbers already eight. What that

734
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 2: tells me that number is gonna close at ten. And

735
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 2: that's ridiculous in week one out of the gate. And

736
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:22,839
Speaker 2: I know the Titans aren't gonna be good, and I

737
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 2: know cam Ward is starting his first year and I can't

738
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 2: stand the Callahans. So I am as out on the

739
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 2: Titans as anybody, But whoa, that's a big number in

740
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 2: week number one.

741
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:36,799
Speaker 3: Crazy. Yeah, I don't know if I'm that out on

742
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 3: the Titans.

743
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 2: Oh you should be, Oh, you really should be. It's

744
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 2: the Callahans, It's Brian Callahan. I can never be in

745
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 2: on the cow I was one of my favorite bets

746
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 2: last year was to bet the under on the wind

747
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:50,919
Speaker 2: total for the Titans. I haven't bet it this year

748
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,240
Speaker 2: because you think he's that bad. I think the Kalahans

749
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 2: are clueless. I both Brian and Billy both on the

750
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:59,359
Speaker 2: coaching staff. Brian's the head coach, Bill's the offensive line coach.

751
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,800
Speaker 2: I think both the number completely clueless. But cam mord

752
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 2: just might be because I think Zach Taylor is clueless,

753
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 2: but Joe Burrow makes up for it. Cam Ward could

754
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 2: be the similar deal where cam Ward could make up

755
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 2: for the Callahan ineptitude and thus they go over their

756
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 2: win total because cam Ward is that dude. So I

757
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 2: don't love cam Ward, but he does carry himself and

758
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 2: he does have some moxie, and if the kid balls

759
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,359
Speaker 2: out in his rookie year in the NFL, he'll cover

760
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 2: up a lot of problems that the Titans have.

761
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 4: So here's here's my case for the for the over,

762
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 4: they went two and fifteen against the spread last year. Yep,

763
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,240
Speaker 4: this is a market, and with this being a market,

764
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,800
Speaker 4: at some point in time, it naturally. I mean, I

765
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 4: think if you if you were to look, you know,

766
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 4: through the last twenty five years, a team who's this

767
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 4: bad against the spread, they probably do better than that

768
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 4: the following year.

769
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 3: So I think that's what I mean.

770
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 1: That number is ridiculous.

771
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 2: Eight is like already we opened at seven and a half,

772
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 2: or already at eight, we're gonna go eight and a half. Nine, Like,

773
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 2: when do we get a bet on the Dog's gonna

774
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,240
Speaker 2: be the question? When does somebody want to take the Titans?

775
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 2: And I guess it's probably ten, get to ten and

776
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 2: then people start betting it back down with the Titans.

777
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 2: So I don't hate to play in the Titans in

778
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 2: week number one. That's what I mean. I think everybody

779
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 2: I get, I.

780
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 3: Get, I get the impact.

781
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 4: I can understand why people want to play the win

782
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 4: total over just based on you know division, Yeah, division,

783
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 4: you know, just regression. I mean you're gonna get turnover regression,

784
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 4: like they threw he had thirty turnovers and like twenty

785
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 4: one interceptions, Like, like.

786
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: I think, how many picks is Cam Moore is gonna throw?

787
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 2: Though?

788
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 1: That's the worry, right, you got a rookie starting Game one.

789
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 4: I mean, he's not gonna be up seven and throw

790
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 4: the ball completely to the other team when he's.

791
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 3: Thrown like, he's like, that's not gonna have it. I

792
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 3: hope not.

793
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:41,919
Speaker 1: I don't know.

794
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 2: He's a he's a risk taker. I mean, we'll see

795
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 2: if it works out for him. But he's gonna put

796
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 2: the ball in harm's way. We know that from his

797
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 2: college days. He's gonna put the ball in harm's way.

798
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 2: The question will be whether or not he gets to

799
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 2: pay the price for it, or does he get lucky

800
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 2: breaks and doesn't throw interceptions. That's my worries that Cam

801
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 2: Moored does throw as many picks as the quarterbacks playing

802
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 2: last year did for the Titans, which was a ridiculous amount.

803
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 2: So I don't know. I haven't betted. I will bet

804
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 2: against the Titans this year.

805
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: I don't know.

806
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 2: I'm betting against them in Week one, however, because the

807
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 2: love I like the Denver Broncos.

808
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 1: I have the Broncos over on their win total.

809
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 2: I'm I'm riding that train over nine at two, I'm

810
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 2: just not as in love with everybody. I'm as not

811
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:25,759
Speaker 2: like this team's gonna be thirteen and four and they're

812
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 2: gonna be They're gonna be de throwing the chiefs and

813
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 2: everything else.

814
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:30,760
Speaker 1: So all right for letting gold.

815
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 3: But before we, before we, yeah, I gotta say one thing.

816
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:35,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think if you like the Titans under, you

817
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 4: play them now? Oh okay, fair, because I think if

818
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 4: you don't like, if you like the Titans over, and

819
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:44,720
Speaker 4: I know a lot of people like the Titans over, Okay.

820
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 4: The thing that's keeping me off the over is because

821
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:49,879
Speaker 4: I think they're gonna lose week one in.

822
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 1: Two okay, and better number.

823
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 4: That's what I was hoping to do. I was hoping,

824
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:57,919
Speaker 4: you know, they lose week one and two and then

825
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 4: I come back week three and I played them over.

826
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:02,760
Speaker 4: That's kind of how I was thinking of approaching it.

827
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 4: Not hold if they look competent.

828
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 2: Right, I'm not gonna hold you to it because it's

829
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 2: it's obviously just just a prediction.

830
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 1: But who is holding?

831
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 2: Who is in Senate, who is in San Francisco slash

832
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 2: Santa Ana, wherever the hell Levice Stadium is these days?

833
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 2: Who wins it? All, who's who's the chip? I think

834
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 2: I know what you're gonna say, but who wins it all?

835
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 3: It's it's honestly, I think the best team in the

836
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:32,239
Speaker 3: league is Baltimore.

837
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 1: Finally I thought you say Chiefs. I was ready to

838
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 1: use it the Chiefs.

839
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 4: But it's just like it's it's it's it's Lamar's time.

840
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 1: If it's gonna ever do it, it's now.

841
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:50,399
Speaker 4: It's either it's like, honestly, Travis kelcey and and Teller

842
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,719
Speaker 4: Swift got married today, So I just not married yet.

843
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:57,360
Speaker 4: They got engaged today. I feel like they should just

844
00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 4: get married during halftime.

845
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 5: Oh, Like, like you know, the conspiracy theory right that

846
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 5: she's playing the halftime show. Wow, the conspiracy theory is

847
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 5: that she's playing the halftime show and she's gonna do

848
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 5: a residency here at the Sphere in Vegas, and that's

849
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 5: and that's where she's gonna go. She's gonna play the

850
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 5: halftime show for the first time, that she'll play the

851
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 5: Sphere right afterwards and start going in and do that.

852
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 1: The two things she has not done yet.

853
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:24,759
Speaker 2: Everyone thinks she's going to do Life of a Showgirl,

854
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:28,279
Speaker 2: her new album, Vegas Showgirl and then her to go up.

855
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 2: The colors of the album is orange and everything else

856
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 2: that goes into it, and it's all the forty nine

857
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 2: or Boloney that's out there with the Swifties.

858
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 1: That's the rumor that she's gonna.

859
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 2: Play the halftime show and then she'll play here in Vegas,

860
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 2: So he might be on something there.

861
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 4: You know what, I'll say this, there's three teams who

862
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 4: can win the super Bowl. Okay, it's the three superhuman

863
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 4: quarterbacks in the AFC. One of those guys are winning it.

864
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 3: I don't know who think Burrow?

865
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 1: No, oh girl, who's the other?

866
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 4: It's I don't I don't include him in this. I'm sorry.

867
00:39:58,480 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 4: I like I like Joe Burrow.

868
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 1: He's not superhuman.

869
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 3: There's a clear tier to me.

870
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 1: Okay. I think it's Patrick and Josh.

871
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 3: I think that's the tier.

872
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 2: Wow.

873
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,239
Speaker 3: I think it's just on a different level. And I

874
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:15,879
Speaker 3: think Joe Burrow is right below him.

875
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: Okay.

876
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:19,720
Speaker 2: I do think there is a surprising lack of attention

877
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 2: on the bills this year, which I'm very surprised at.

878
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 2: Normally people talk a lot about the bills. People aren't

879
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 2: talking about the bills nearly as much as they used to.

880
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 2: They think the windows closed, which might be the perfect

881
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,240
Speaker 2: thing for an underdog type city and underdog type team

882
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 2: to go and shock everybody.

883
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 1: And this is the year finally for Josh Allen and

884
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 1: the Bills.

885
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 2: I'm not subscribing to it, but I am surprised at

886
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 2: the lack of attention that Josh Allen has received. He

887
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:45,840
Speaker 2: got married in the off season, his personal life is

888
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 2: all settled.

889
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 4: It weak, like the division is so weak that it

890
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:52,240
Speaker 4: just puts them in a position to where they should

891
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 4: be able to. I mean, they're going to win a division,

892
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:56,799
Speaker 4: and they they're going to have a home playoff game

893
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 4: if they can just you know, beat up, continue to

894
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,400
Speaker 4: beat up on a division. I think they have a

895
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 4: real shot. Honestly, I just want Super Bowl futures on

896
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:06,879
Speaker 4: all three of those teams. I think one of those

897
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 4: teams is winning. I don't think the NFC is very good.

898
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 2: I hope it's Lamar. I hope it's the Ravens. I

899
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 2: would love to see it. I bet him last year.

900
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 2: I'll bet him again. It's just one of those things

901
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,279
Speaker 2: I am. I do believe in Lamar Jackson. I believe

902
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 2: in the offense. I believe in the running attack, I

903
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 2: believe in the defense. I believe that that team that

904
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:29,440
Speaker 2: Lamar has done incredible things in the NFL, and the

905
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 2: last thing he needs is a Lombardi. And if he

906
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 2: gets a Lombardi, it changes and cements his legacy and

907
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 2: changes the whole conversation around him for the rest of

908
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:41,399
Speaker 2: his life. So I hope this is the year for him.

909
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 2: I'm not sure, but I hope this. But I'm with

910
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,359
Speaker 2: you on the NFC. I think that there's some big

911
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 2: question marks in the NFC this year, and the AFC

912
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:52,359
Speaker 2: has taken a step. I'm out on the Dolphins, I'm

913
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 2: out on the Jets, So I'm with you on that.

914
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 2: I don't think the Patriots are going to be as

915
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 2: good as everyone thinks they're going to be. I don't

916
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:59,440
Speaker 2: think there are a ten win football team, and everyone is.

917
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 2: I hate the fact how much it's bet on it.

918
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 2: So for the Bills perspective, they could go six to

919
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 2: o in the division and that puts them right smack

920
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 2: in the one seed conversation and having a home playoff

921
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 2: game or home playoffs throughout the entire the entire run.

922
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 1: Because the AFC West is going to be a bear

923
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 1: for the Chiefs.

924
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 3: To get there, so it's going to be brutal.

925
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 1: Very different situations.

926
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 2: Raheem for folks that want to follow you throughout the

927
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,440
Speaker 2: NFL football season with the Ringer work and they get

928
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 2: your work.

929
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 3: Okay, we just launched the Ringer YouTube page Ringer Gambling YouTube,

930
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 3: so you can go on Ringer Gambling on YouTube. Obviously,

931
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:31,840
Speaker 3: you can catch us on Spotify Ringer Gambling Show, and

932
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 3: you can catch me on Twitter and Instagram. I am

933
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:37,839
Speaker 3: Rostra Damas, so check me out.

934
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 4: We're still going to be doing a Sunday NFL preview

935
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 4: show every Sunday. We did one last year and the

936
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:46,440
Speaker 4: year before. This is our third season, so it's just

937
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:48,879
Speaker 4: really exciting stuff, so I'm glad to keep it going.

938
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 2: Check out Raheem stuff for sure. Guys, thank you for

939
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 2: watching this. If you have been at this long, do

940
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:54,760
Speaker 2: us a favor.

941
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 1: Hit the like.

942
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 2: Button, hit the thumb, subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel.

943
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:00,360
Speaker 2: We're trying to get this thing to one hundred thousand

944
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:03,880
Speaker 2: subscribers by the end of the year and twenty twenty five,

945
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:06,239
Speaker 2: so make sure you subscribe. Hit the little bell so

946
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 2: you're notified every month when the Sharp report drops. I'm

947
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 2: at Peralta Raheem Palmer. We'll talk to you next month

948
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 2: for another episode of The Sharp Report.

949
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

950
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 6: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

951
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 6: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

952
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,560
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953
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:29,320
Speaker 6: Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

954
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 6: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.