WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend: Eco Data, Jobs and Inflation 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:06.200 This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:08.440 the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak 0:00:08.480 --> 0:00:10.680 anchors all around the world. And straight ahead on the 0:00:10.720 --> 0:00:14.320 program Inflation. I'm Tom Busby in New York. 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:17.560 I'm Kallen Hepga in London, where we're looking at the 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:19.640 UK jobs market puzzle. 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:23.560 I'm dek Krisner. Leaders at the Aussion Summit will consider 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:25.960 the relationship between Japan and China. 0:00:26.400 --> 0:00:29.760 We get the Biden administration's takeaways from the latest jobs report. 0:00:29.880 --> 0:00:31.560 I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:37.760 That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 0:00:37.840 --> 0:00:40.040 E Loove Them Free own New York, Bloomberg in ninety 0:00:40.159 --> 0:00:43.720 nine to one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg one O six one, Boston, 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:48.600 Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius 0:00:48.720 --> 0:00:51.960 XM one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:54.320 dot com and via the Bloomberg Business App. 0:01:01.240 --> 0:01:01.880 Good day to you. 0:01:02.040 --> 0:01:04.399 I'm Tom Busby, and we begin today's program with the 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:06.440 state of the US economy and what it means for 0:01:06.480 --> 0:01:10.560 the Federal Reserve when the FMC gets together later this month, 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:13.959 and joining us to talk about. That is Bloomberg's International 0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:16.720 Economic and Policy correspondent Michael McKee. 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:17.880 Michael, thanks for being here. 0:01:18.120 --> 0:01:21.560 Let's talk about that better than forecasts, but still rather 0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:24.520 Fed friendly August jobs report that we got this past week. 0:01:24.640 --> 0:01:27.360 It probably means that there's not going to be a 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:32.000 rate increase in September twentieth at the next FED meeting. 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:34.800 They can hold off. No reason in these latest numbers 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:37.800 that they need to tighten, and there's a faction on 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:40.559 the FED that thinks that they've done enough, so they'll 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:43.040 probably do a pause and wait and see what happens 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:47.320 between now and November first, when the meeting after that 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:51.880 takes place. The jobs report you put it well, because 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:56.840 it's in a sense mixed news. The hiring has slowed. 0:01:57.520 --> 0:02:01.920 The number four June was for July rather was revised 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:04.920 down significantly, and maybe August will be too, we don't 0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:08.000 know yet. But and the unemployment rate went up to 0:02:08.000 --> 0:02:10.799 three point eight percent, but that's all within the scope 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:13.440 of what the FED is expecting because they have raised 0:02:13.480 --> 0:02:16.600 interest rates. They were thinking this would slow demand and 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:20.160 that would slow the labor market, and they had predicted 0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:23.280 four point one percent unemployment by the end of the year. 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:26.639 That was thought to be kind of out of reach 0:02:26.800 --> 0:02:29.880 and that they might have to adjust that forecast, but 0:02:30.040 --> 0:02:33.000 now looks like it is certainly possible if we get 0:02:33.000 --> 0:02:34.760 a couple more months, like August. 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.080 Three notches higher from three point five to three point 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:40.600 eight percent. Now part of that though, maybe more people 0:02:40.639 --> 0:02:44.760 looking for a job, and also that bankruptcy filing by Yellow. 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:46.760 I mean, that's tens of thousands of jobs. 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:49.760 Yellow was a big contributor, thirty seven thousand jobs taken 0:02:49.800 --> 0:02:52.440 off the top line because they went out of business. 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:55.600 Now a lot of that will reverse. From what I understand, 0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:58.000 a lot of the Yellow drivers have found new work 0:02:58.040 --> 0:03:01.519 because other companies were looking for drivers. So we'll see 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:04.720 what that looks like when we get to the September 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:08.800 employment report, the SAG after Obviously, with a strike, you 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:13.120 have sort of a volatile situation where employees can come 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:15.800 and go off payrolls depending on when things are settled. 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:19.440 Interesting that it took this long for that to show 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:21.919 up in the data, But one of the big reasons 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:24.880 for that is most of those people are essentially freelancers, 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:28.800 and the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics looks at 0:03:28.800 --> 0:03:31.240 payrolls as they see whether you get paid in the 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:34.600 pay period, including the twelfth of the month, So a 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:37.520 lot of those people probably didn't get paid in those 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:40.280 time periods, or they got their residual checks or something 0:03:40.920 --> 0:03:43.800 outside that window, so they weren't counted until now. 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:47.880 Also, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:50.960 The PCEE. The important number there is not the slight 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:53.680 rise in the year over year headlining core, but the 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:56.000 fact that headlining core rose on a month over a 0:03:56.040 --> 0:03:58.920 month basis by two tenths of a percent for the 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.720 second month in a row, because it shows the FED 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:06.080 on a sequential basis that we are making progress against inflation. 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:07.200 And if you. 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:11.360 Annualize those numbers, like the year over year numbers, then 0:04:11.400 --> 0:04:14.720 you come out with about two point four percent for 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:18.200 a number if that's what happens the rest of the year. 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:21.599 So it shows that the FED is getting closer to 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:25.520 what it's looking for, which is something around three percent 0:04:25.600 --> 0:04:26.880 or a little below by. 0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:27.400 The end of the year. 0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:30.320 And the Fed's going to have more data between now 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:31.839 and their meeting in September. 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:34.919 Normally, the week after payrolls is kind of empty of 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:39.599 significant indicators, but because the way the calendar fell this time. 0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:42.919 With the jobs report coming on the first of the month, 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:46.120 there are a couple of indicators that people are going 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.800 to be watching. One as ISM services. Now we would 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:51.720 have been looking at that for guidance on hiring, but 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:54.880 now we know what the hiring was. The question is 0:04:54.920 --> 0:05:00.160 going to be after today's slightly better than expected the 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:07.000 the ISM manufacturing report. That would suggest that maybe if 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:10.640 Tim Fiori, who runs that report, is correct about it 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:15.159 being that we were in the trough for manufacturing, we 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:18.320 might see us in the trough for services too, and 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:21.320 the number could come in slightly better than expected, which 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:25.240 is something that makes the soft landing argument. 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:28.920 And the week after that CPI for August retail sales 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:30.200 for that same month. 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:33.599 The sales number for retail sales last month and for 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:38.120 spend in the spending report this past week were higher 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:42.320 than anticipated, And the question is do Americans still want 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:45.320 to keep spending at that same rate because most of 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:49.960 their savings from the pandemic checks they got is gone. 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:54.240 The savings rate went down last month, so it'll be 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:56.479 interesting to see what kind of numbers we get in 0:05:56.560 --> 0:05:59.120 terms of back to school spending. Normally, a month where 0:05:59.120 --> 0:06:02.560 you'd see a boost, so we'll look at that, but 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:05.320 it's also CPI is going to be what everybody's watching. 0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:10.279 It'll be the next indicator. It's more timely in terms 0:06:10.320 --> 0:06:14.240 of when it comes out than the PCE, So if 0:06:14.279 --> 0:06:17.680 it shows continued progress, I'll just put a nail in 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:20.520 the coffin of a September rate increase. And I think 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:23.000 what you'll start to see is if it comes in 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:27.400 lower than expected or at a reasonable level, then that'll 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:29.960 cause people to back off the idea of a November 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:31.120 rate increase as well. 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:33.720 So CPI a little uneven. 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:36.520 We did you know a last meeting there was a 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:39.960 twenty five basis points increase, But it's heading in the 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:40.839 right direction. 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:43.000 Right, We're heading in the right direction, and the FAT 0:06:43.040 --> 0:06:46.040 is clearly close to ending. The debate has been about 0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:48.719 whether they need to do one more increase or not. 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:52.520 And at this point, maybe twenty five basis points doesn't 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:56.440 do a whole lot to crimp borrowing, but it might 0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:59.000 be sending a signal, So there's the question do you 0:06:59.040 --> 0:07:01.560 need to send that signal or not. The argument of 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:05.560 those who think the FED should finish is that they 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:11.000 still have lagged impacts coming from their previous rate increases 0:07:11.240 --> 0:07:13.560 that are really starting to hit the economy now, and 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:16.200 they make a good case in that the hiring has 0:07:16.280 --> 0:07:22.160 slowed and other parts of the economy have slowed. Americans 0:07:22.160 --> 0:07:25.360 are still spending, but you can maybe see the darkness 0:07:25.400 --> 0:07:28.760 at the end of the tunnel to reverse that. And 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:33.000 so we'll see if they see any reason in the 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:33.760 data right now. 0:07:33.760 --> 0:07:35.920 It doesn't look like it now, Mike, you were at 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:40.000 Jackson Hole and Chairman Powell acknowledge the economic backdrop right 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:42.200 now a little more favorable than it was a year ago. 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:45.080 He made clear though, the Bank is prepared to raise 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:48.280 interest rates if it determines more hikes are needed, noting 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:52.520 that a resilient economy comes with risks that inflation could reaccelerate. 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:54.360 So there's still a chance. 0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:57.280 There's still a chance, and there are signs that the 0:07:57.320 --> 0:08:02.480 economy is still doing well and is growing faster than anticipated. 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:06.800 So if that's the case, does that create additional demand 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:09.840 that puts us out of whack with supply and leads 0:08:09.880 --> 0:08:15.560 to some inflation. So far, it looks like the odds 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:18.240 are that it doesn't, but the Fed has to make 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:20.480 sure and they don't want to get in a situation 0:08:20.560 --> 0:08:25.160 where they're leading the markets astray by letting people think 0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:28.240 that they're done and then maybe having to come back in. 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:31.160 That happened to the Reserve Bank of Australia, it happened 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:33.560 to the Bank of Canada, and they don't want to 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:36.720 repeat that, so they will keep their options open and 0:08:36.760 --> 0:08:40.559 tell people we're still maybe thinking about raising grades, probably 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:42.600 into twenty twenty four. 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:44.599 Oh boy, now this week you're going to get a 0:08:44.679 --> 0:08:47.440 chance to talk to New York Federal Reserve Bank President 0:08:47.520 --> 0:08:51.480 John Williams, maybe talk about monetary policy, the economic outlook 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:55.079 and all that tell me about Bloomberg's Market Forum FX 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:56.199 in focus event. 0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:59.920 Well, certainly everybody's concerned about what's happening with the dollar. 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:02.000 Is it going up still, is it going to start 0:09:02.040 --> 0:09:05.760 backing off? And so that's the focus of the conference. 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:09.000 But with John Williams, we have one of the most 0:09:09.000 --> 0:09:12.000 important decision makers on the Fed. He is the vice 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:14.680 chairman of the Open Market Committee, the group that sets 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:18.040 interest rates, and he has a permanent vote on the committee, 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:21.280 and he is seen as one of the people closest 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:24.840 to Jay Powell, the chairman. So if you kind of 0:09:24.880 --> 0:09:27.640 know what John Williams is thinking, You'll have a pretty 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:29.960 good idea of what Jay Powell is thinking, and so 0:09:30.040 --> 0:09:33.200 that makes him a really important and interesting guest for us. 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:36.120 Exciting week ahead, Michael, thank you so much for being 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:39.480 here and coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. Some big 0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:42.560 economic data coming out this week in the UK. We'll 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:46.000 get a preview. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:58.440 This is the Bloomberg Black Business Beat. About ten years ago, 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:03.000 longtime health industry executive Derek Miles was frustrated. He felt 0:10:03.000 --> 0:10:05.920 boxed in by the company he worked for. So when 0:10:05.920 --> 0:10:08.319 his company was looking to trim headcount, he took a 0:10:08.400 --> 0:10:09.040 leap of faith. 0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:11.400 I raised my hand and said, hey, I'll take these 0:10:11.400 --> 0:10:13.080 seven packaging to come an entrepreneur. 0:10:13.240 --> 0:10:15.520 First, he created a medical delivery service. 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:19.360 What we did was taken the philosophy or the platform. 0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:22.120 For blouber Left and grub Lub and brought it into healthcare. 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:25.520 We actually launched a company and we started delivering prescriptions 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:28.040 and vitamins and CBD all the people's homes. 0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:31.560 From there, the ideas kept coming, and today Miles is 0:10:31.600 --> 0:10:34.760 founder and CEO of a successful concierge health company called 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.520 Cormed with an impressive list of business partners. 0:10:37.640 --> 0:10:40.520 Here we are today providing concit health and wellness services 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:45.320 for bulk bracket banks, family offices, high network individuals. 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:47.240 And he's using his position as an entrepreneur of color 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:51.559 to elevate more diverse voices. I'm Bloomberg's Justin Milliner. I'm 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:52.559 the Black Business Speed. 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:58.800 This is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our global look ahead 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:01.360 at the top stories for ves in the coming week. 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:04.320 I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up later in our 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:07.960 program a trip to Jakarta to preview the Assion Business 0:11:08.000 --> 0:11:11.680 and Investment Summit twenty twenty three. But first, the UK 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:14.880 has the worst inflation problem in the G seven, but 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:18.640 there are signs things are improving. The latest food price 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:22.080 data shows the pace of price increases is slowing, and 0:11:22.120 --> 0:11:24.040 in the coming days we'll get a key update on 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:28.480 the jobs market, including wage growth. That's the metric policy 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:30.679 makers at the Bank of England are most worried about. 0:11:30.720 --> 0:11:32.800 And for more, let's head to London and bring in 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:36.440 Bloomberg Daybreak Europe ankers Caroline Hepgar and Stephen Carroll. 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:37.000 Tom. 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:40.520 The UK has had a very tight labor market combined 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:45.440 with sky high inflation. Bloomberg's Jobs report with the Recruitment Firm, 0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:48.640 read next week, could give us a valuable early insight 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:51.839 into the jobs market in the UK and whether things 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:55.640 are improving. Recent data's offered something of a puzzle. You've 0:11:55.640 --> 0:12:01.199 got rising unemployment and falling vacancies, but wages have actually 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:04.920 still been going up. Blomberg Economics thinks that the unemployment 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:07.920 rate might reach five percent by the middle of next year, 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:11.560 but private sector pay growth for the three months to 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:15.240 June was running at a staggering eight point two percent. 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:17.920 To unpack all of this, I've been speaking to Bloemberg 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:22.480 economist Anna Andrade and Economics report Lucy White about the 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:26.000 jobs picture in the UK and the dilemma it poses 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:27.000 for the Bank of England. 0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:30.679 So I think it's fair to say for the last 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:36.560 two months now that the UK jobs market is calling. 0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:38.560 I think we can say that with a bit more 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:41.600 confidence than probably at the start of the year, and 0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:46.079 that's because more indicators are moving in the right direction. 0:12:46.400 --> 0:12:49.280 So we've had these kind of declining vacancies for a while, 0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:51.440 but in the last two months you really got this 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:56.719 kind of increase in unemployment. Now, the problem is that 0:12:56.800 --> 0:13:00.160 if you look historically, you know, the libor market is 0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:03.080 still tight, and we've created this charge that kind of 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:06.559 measures supply versus demand. And because this kind of imbalance 0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:10.959 has been what's kind of keeping inflationary pressures high. And 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:13.920 when you look at that, you see that the mismatch 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:16.719 has eased a bit, but it's still far higher than 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:20.960 anything you've seen historically. So it's cooling. The liberal market 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:23.160 is calling. But the starting point was just an incredibly 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:26.600 red hot jobs market. So you know, for the BOE 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:28.679 that might mean, you know that more is needed. 0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:33.400 Lucy, how do you see the employment market at the moment? 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:37.079 Cooling but from a very very difficult spot, and obviously 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:39.959 part of that is also the migration story. But how 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:42.800 do you see the labor market picture in the UK exactly? 0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:44.960 I mean, we are starting, as I said, we are 0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:48.600 starting to see that cooling. You know, anecdotally, I'm hearing 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:50.720 more about you know, people being made redundant and stuff, 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:52.640 although that is you know, kind of at a much 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:55.920 lower level than it has been historically. But at the 0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:58.760 same time, you know, we came from, as I said, 0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:03.840 such a high point. We're having to you know, we've 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:06.280 still got a skilled shortage in the UK. Many businesses 0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:09.000 are saying that, you know, whether it be you know, 0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:11.840 the very sort of high tech jobs that are in 0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:14.199 demand in the economy right now, or whether they're kind 0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:18.199 of high skilled manual jobs, you know, for example, worlders, 0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:22.480 you know, construction workers, as we're still importing huge numbers 0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:26.200 of people from abroad to help out with that skills gap. 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:29.360 And where do you see the unemployment rate going then 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:32.240 over the next six or twelve months, because obviously the 0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:34.560 campaign of interest rate hikes that we've seen from the 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:37.280 Bank of England, part of that is to bring down 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:41.400 wadge gains and employment. So what what's the forecast you 0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:42.640 think for the next six months. 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:46.360 So in our forecast, essentially this kind of increase in 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:49.640 unemployment that you've had over the past two months is 0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:53.320 just the beginning of a more sustained increase. We see 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:57.760 the unemployment rate pecking at five percent by the middle 0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:01.800 of next year. And that's a very different outlook or 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:04.200 sidely different outlook than the BOE. So we're a bit 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:08.000 more downbeat. The BEE at its latest forecast, of course 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:10.720 this was prior to the latest job jobs market data, 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:14.520 but it saw the unemployment rate hovering close to four 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:16.920 percent by the middle of next year. So that's a 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:20.600 one percentage point difference, which is quite significant. And I 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:24.280 think the difference between our forecast especially reflects the difference 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.800 in our views on how the economy is going to evolve. 0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:31.440 We kind of see the economy tipping into recession, and 0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:34.080 as you said, because of you know, it's a monetary 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:38.600 policy induced recession, and so we don't have a view 0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:42.200 that there will be a soft a soft landing. It's 0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:44.360 kind of that view. For you to believe in that view, 0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:46.240 you really need to think that interest rates kind of 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:49.880 lost older power, and that's not what we're seeing in 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:53.360 deliber market, in residential construction, so we're already seeing signs. 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:56.360 So yeah, and that Goldilock sort of view of the economy, 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.320 which is dominated in the US but has also kind 0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:01.280 of fed into the thinking in the UK, that does 0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:03.760 seem to have faded. It seemed to be something that 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:07.080 was largely earlier this year. But the Bank of England's 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:07.960 yet to be convinced. 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:10.640 Yeah, I guess, so, I mean, we'll we'll we'll have 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:13.640 we'll have more data, and I think they have They 0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:16.920 do think that the kind of the bounce back that 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:20.600 you're seeing in real wages and the drop in energy 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:22.880 prices that that's going to kind of I mean, and 0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:25.240 those are important factors right now that can kind of 0:16:25.240 --> 0:16:29.280 support the economy. But in the opposite direction, you have 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:32.480 interest rates and in the PMI, you know, so many 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:35.440 more businesses are quoting interest rates, so that's that's already 0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:36.480 having kind of an impact. 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:40.440 Lucy. What sectors of the economy have held up sort 0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:43.920 of best in terms of jobs demand and again, what's 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:45.640 the outlook over the next few months. 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.360 Well, we've been doing some really interesting work with read 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:51.920 Recruitment on this. They're one of the UK's biggest jobs 0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:56.760 platforms in terms of you know, vacancies and job vacancies 0:16:56.760 --> 0:17:01.040 and job offerings, and they have given us access to 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:02.720 all of the job postings that they've been putting on 0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:07.080 their site since twenty eighteen. And there's some really interesting, 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:09.439 you know, kind of hot spots in terms of the 0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:11.760 sectors that are doing well at the moment, where vacancies 0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:14.880 are high, where wages are high, and some of those 0:17:14.920 --> 0:17:20.200 are areas like the energy sector. Obviously, you know we've 0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:23.919 been seeing you know, huge price increases in energy bills, 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:28.800 but that's in some ways translating into jobs as well. Also, 0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:34.040 the consulting sector is you know, as London's the London 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:39.000 bubble always does particularly well in these times, So consulting 0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:41.520 is doing well. And there are other kind of you know, 0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:45.520 high skilled areas that are you know, particularly in demand 0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:46.000 right now. 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:51.040 How much do you think that mandating work in office 0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:53.000 as opposed to work for hope is going to change 0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:55.800 and we talk about high end jobs GOLDM. Sachs for example, 0:17:56.160 --> 0:18:00.680 mandating a full return to you in person work. What 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:02.239 sort of impact do you think that's going to have 0:18:02.280 --> 0:18:04.240 on the labor market. Is that such a big story 0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:04.880 here in the UK. 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:07.520 Well, it's interesting because you know, we're coming from somewhere 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:10.560 where a few months ago, the big theme was that 0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:12.320 the power was now in the hands of the workers. 0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:14.919 You know, there was such demand for workers that essentially 0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:17.760 people could negotiate the terms of their own employment. You know, 0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:21.840 everyone was demanding working from home, flexible working, and that 0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:23.720 is starting to shift. I think as we see the 0:18:23.800 --> 0:18:26.560 labor market calling you know, as you say, we're seeing 0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:28.480 several firms sort of saying, you know, we want you 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:30.920 in at least three days, four days, sometimes even five 0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:35.800 days a week, and workers now don't quite have the 0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:39.159 same power, especially with inflation so high and you know, 0:18:40.440 --> 0:18:44.040 the worry that a recession might be coming. Workers don't 0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:46.280 quite have the same negotiating power to be able to 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:49.880 fight that. And again, you know, the impact that we're 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:51.560 going to see on different types of people in the 0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:54.840 labor market. You know, for example, since the pandemic ended, 0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:57.239 we've seen a huge rise in women's working hours, and 0:18:57.280 --> 0:19:00.439 I've been speaking to several experts on that. Many of 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:02.040 them have said it is due to this rise in 0:19:02.080 --> 0:19:05.040 hybrid working, the fact that women who have typically tended 0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:07.600 to take on more care responsibilities are now able to 0:19:07.640 --> 0:19:09.320 work more of the hours that they want to because 0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:12.040 of this hybrid working, you know, if they're looking after children, 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:15.320 and so the impact that we might see on that, 0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:18.040 you know, whether we s see women's hours reverting to 0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:21.359 pre pandemic levels remains to be seen. 0:19:21.920 --> 0:19:25.280 My thanks to Bloomberg Economics reporter Lucy White there and 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:28.440 our economists Anna and ra Day speaking to me ahead 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:31.879 of the Bloomberg Read Jobs report that comes out in 0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:34.760 the next few days. I'm Caroline hepget here in London. 0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:37.639 You can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak 0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:40.080 you're at beginning at six am in London. That's one 0:19:40.119 --> 0:19:41.240 am on Wall Street. 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:44.080 Tom, thank you, Steven and Caroline. 0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:46.639 Coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, we head to Asia 0:19:46.760 --> 0:19:49.439 and a look at the upcoming as Yon Business and 0:19:49.520 --> 0:19:50.399 Investment Summit. 0:19:50.880 --> 0:19:53.720 I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. 0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:07.920 Broadcasting live from the Bloomberg it a active brokers studio 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:10.919 in New York. Bloomberg e Lemon free oh to Washington, 0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:14.320 d C, Bloomberg ninety nine one to Boston, Bloomberg one 0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:17.600 oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:20.880 the country, Sirius XM channel one to nineteen to London 0:20:21.000 --> 0:20:24.760 DAB Digital Radio, and around the globe the Bloomberg Business 0:20:24.760 --> 0:20:35.000 app in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. 0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:37.800 Hight top Us be in New York with your global 0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:40.119 look ahead of the top stories for investors in the 0:20:40.119 --> 0:20:44.240 coming week. And this week in Jakarta, it's the Assion 0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:46.879 Business and Investment Summit, and for more, let's go to 0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:50.040 Hong Kong and Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Ryan Curtis and 0:20:50.080 --> 0:20:51.800 his colleague Doug Krisner. 0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:54.320 Tom In the coming week, Indonesia will be hosting the 0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:57.679 forty third Ossion Leader Summit in Jakarta. This is going 0:20:57.720 --> 0:21:00.960 to be an opportunity to outline a long term vision 0:21:01.040 --> 0:21:03.679 for the group, but it will be difficult to ignore 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:06.240 what has been happening north of the region, the growing 0:21:06.280 --> 0:21:11.280 tension between Japan and China. How concerned should these assion 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:15.119 nations be over Tokyo's hardening stance against Beijing. Let's take 0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:18.679 a closer look now with Bloomberg's Isabelle Reynolds, Bloomberg Asia 0:21:18.720 --> 0:21:22.119 Government reporter, joining us from our studios in Tokyo. Isabelle, 0:21:22.160 --> 0:21:24.719 It's always a pleasure. It seems as though we have 0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:27.200 to begin with, and this may seem a little strange, 0:21:27.480 --> 0:21:30.680 the Chinese reaction to the move by Japan to release 0:21:30.760 --> 0:21:36.560 that radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima reactor. How will this 0:21:36.880 --> 0:21:39.520