1 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at 2 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:08,440 Speaker 1: the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak 3 00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: anchors all around the world. And straight ahead on the 4 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:14,320 Speaker 1: program Inflation. I'm Tom Busby in New York. 5 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 2: I'm Kallen Hepga in London, where we're looking at the 6 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:19,640 Speaker 2: UK jobs market puzzle. 7 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 3: I'm dek Krisner. Leaders at the Aussion Summit will consider 8 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 3: the relationship between Japan and China. 9 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 4: We get the Biden administration's takeaways from the latest jobs report. 10 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. 11 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 5: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 12 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 5: E Loove Them Free own New York, Bloomberg in ninety 13 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 5: nine to one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg one O six one, Boston, 14 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 5: Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius 15 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 5: XM one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio 16 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 5: dot com and via the Bloomberg Business App. 17 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 6: Good day to you. 18 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:04,399 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Busby, and we begin today's program with the 19 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: state of the US economy and what it means for 20 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve when the FMC gets together later this month, 21 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 1: and joining us to talk about. That is Bloomberg's International 22 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: Economic and Policy correspondent Michael McKee. 23 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 6: Michael, thanks for being here. 24 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: Let's talk about that better than forecasts, but still rather 25 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 1: Fed friendly August jobs report that we got this past week. 26 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 7: It probably means that there's not going to be a 27 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 7: rate increase in September twentieth at the next FED meeting. 28 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 7: They can hold off. No reason in these latest numbers 29 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 7: that they need to tighten, and there's a faction on 30 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,559 Speaker 7: the FED that thinks that they've done enough, so they'll 31 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,040 Speaker 7: probably do a pause and wait and see what happens 32 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:47,320 Speaker 7: between now and November first, when the meeting after that 33 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 7: takes place. The jobs report you put it well, because 34 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 7: it's in a sense mixed news. The hiring has slowed. 35 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 7: The number four June was for July rather was revised 36 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 7: down significantly, and maybe August will be too, we don't 37 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 7: know yet. But and the unemployment rate went up to 38 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:10,799 Speaker 7: three point eight percent, but that's all within the scope 39 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 7: of what the FED is expecting because they have raised 40 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 7: interest rates. They were thinking this would slow demand and 41 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 7: that would slow the labor market, and they had predicted 42 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 7: four point one percent unemployment by the end of the year. 43 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:26,639 Speaker 7: That was thought to be kind of out of reach 44 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 7: and that they might have to adjust that forecast, but 45 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 7: now looks like it is certainly possible if we get 46 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 7: a couple more months, like August. 47 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: Three notches higher from three point five to three point 48 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: eight percent. Now part of that though, maybe more people 49 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 1: looking for a job, and also that bankruptcy filing by Yellow. 50 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: I mean, that's tens of thousands of jobs. 51 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 7: Yellow was a big contributor, thirty seven thousand jobs taken 52 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 7: off the top line because they went out of business. 53 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 7: Now a lot of that will reverse. From what I understand, 54 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 7: a lot of the Yellow drivers have found new work 55 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:01,519 Speaker 7: because other companies were looking for drivers. So we'll see 56 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 7: what that looks like when we get to the September 57 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:08,800 Speaker 7: employment report, the SAG after Obviously, with a strike, you 58 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 7: have sort of a volatile situation where employees can come 59 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 7: and go off payrolls depending on when things are settled. 60 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 7: Interesting that it took this long for that to show 61 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 7: up in the data, But one of the big reasons 62 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 7: for that is most of those people are essentially freelancers, 63 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 7: and the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics looks at 64 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 7: payrolls as they see whether you get paid in the 65 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 7: pay period, including the twelfth of the month, So a 66 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 7: lot of those people probably didn't get paid in those 67 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 7: time periods, or they got their residual checks or something 68 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 7: outside that window, so they weren't counted until now. 69 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 1: Also, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. 70 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 7: The PCEE. The important number there is not the slight 71 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 7: rise in the year over year headlining core, but the 72 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 7: fact that headlining core rose on a month over a 73 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 7: month basis by two tenths of a percent for the 74 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 7: second month in a row, because it shows the FED 75 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 7: on a sequential basis that we are making progress against inflation. 76 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 6: And if you. 77 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:11,360 Speaker 7: Annualize those numbers, like the year over year numbers, then 78 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 7: you come out with about two point four percent for 79 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 7: a number if that's what happens the rest of the year. 80 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 7: So it shows that the FED is getting closer to 81 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 7: what it's looking for, which is something around three percent 82 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 7: or a little below by. 83 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 6: The end of the year. 84 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: And the Fed's going to have more data between now 85 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 1: and their meeting in September. 86 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:34,919 Speaker 7: Normally, the week after payrolls is kind of empty of 87 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:39,599 Speaker 7: significant indicators, but because the way the calendar fell this time. 88 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 7: With the jobs report coming on the first of the month, 89 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 7: there are a couple of indicators that people are going 90 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 7: to be watching. One as ISM services. Now we would 91 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 7: have been looking at that for guidance on hiring, but 92 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 7: now we know what the hiring was. The question is 93 00:04:54,920 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 7: going to be after today's slightly better than expected the 94 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 7: the ISM manufacturing report. That would suggest that maybe if 95 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 7: Tim Fiori, who runs that report, is correct about it 96 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 7: being that we were in the trough for manufacturing, we 97 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 7: might see us in the trough for services too, and 98 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 7: the number could come in slightly better than expected, which 99 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 7: is something that makes the soft landing argument. 100 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: And the week after that CPI for August retail sales 101 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: for that same month. 102 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:33,599 Speaker 7: The sales number for retail sales last month and for 103 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 7: spend in the spending report this past week were higher 104 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 7: than anticipated, And the question is do Americans still want 105 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 7: to keep spending at that same rate because most of 106 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 7: their savings from the pandemic checks they got is gone. 107 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 7: The savings rate went down last month, so it'll be 108 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:56,479 Speaker 7: interesting to see what kind of numbers we get in 109 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 7: terms of back to school spending. Normally, a month where 110 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 7: you'd see a boost, so we'll look at that, but 111 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 7: it's also CPI is going to be what everybody's watching. 112 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:10,279 Speaker 7: It'll be the next indicator. It's more timely in terms 113 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 7: of when it comes out than the PCE, So if 114 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 7: it shows continued progress, I'll just put a nail in 115 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 7: the coffin of a September rate increase. And I think 116 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 7: what you'll start to see is if it comes in 117 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 7: lower than expected or at a reasonable level, then that'll 118 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 7: cause people to back off the idea of a November 119 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 7: rate increase as well. 120 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 6: So CPI a little uneven. 121 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 1: We did you know a last meeting there was a 122 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 1: twenty five basis points increase, But it's heading in the 123 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:40,839 Speaker 1: right direction. 124 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 7: Right, We're heading in the right direction, and the FAT 125 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 7: is clearly close to ending. The debate has been about 126 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 7: whether they need to do one more increase or not. 127 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 7: And at this point, maybe twenty five basis points doesn't 128 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 7: do a whole lot to crimp borrowing, but it might 129 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 7: be sending a signal, So there's the question do you 130 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 7: need to send that signal or not. The argument of 131 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 7: those who think the FED should finish is that they 132 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 7: still have lagged impacts coming from their previous rate increases 133 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 7: that are really starting to hit the economy now, and 134 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 7: they make a good case in that the hiring has 135 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 7: slowed and other parts of the economy have slowed. Americans 136 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 7: are still spending, but you can maybe see the darkness 137 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 7: at the end of the tunnel to reverse that. And 138 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 7: so we'll see if they see any reason in the 139 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 7: data right now. 140 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 1: It doesn't look like it now, Mike, you were at 141 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: Jackson Hole and Chairman Powell acknowledge the economic backdrop right 142 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 1: now a little more favorable than it was a year ago. 143 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 1: He made clear though, the Bank is prepared to raise 144 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: interest rates if it determines more hikes are needed, noting 145 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: that a resilient economy comes with risks that inflation could reaccelerate. 146 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 6: So there's still a chance. 147 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 7: There's still a chance, and there are signs that the 148 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 7: economy is still doing well and is growing faster than anticipated. 149 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 7: So if that's the case, does that create additional demand 150 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 7: that puts us out of whack with supply and leads 151 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 7: to some inflation. So far, it looks like the odds 152 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 7: are that it doesn't, but the Fed has to make 153 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 7: sure and they don't want to get in a situation 154 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 7: where they're leading the markets astray by letting people think 155 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 7: that they're done and then maybe having to come back in. 156 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 7: That happened to the Reserve Bank of Australia, it happened 157 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 7: to the Bank of Canada, and they don't want to 158 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 7: repeat that, so they will keep their options open and 159 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:40,559 Speaker 7: tell people we're still maybe thinking about raising grades, probably 160 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 7: into twenty twenty four. 161 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:44,599 Speaker 1: Oh boy, now this week you're going to get a 162 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 1: chance to talk to New York Federal Reserve Bank President 163 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 1: John Williams, maybe talk about monetary policy, the economic outlook 164 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:55,079 Speaker 1: and all that tell me about Bloomberg's Market Forum FX 165 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:56,199 Speaker 1: in focus event. 166 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 7: Well, certainly everybody's concerned about what's happening with the dollar. 167 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 7: Is it going up still, is it going to start 168 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 7: backing off? And so that's the focus of the conference. 169 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 7: But with John Williams, we have one of the most 170 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 7: important decision makers on the Fed. He is the vice 171 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 7: chairman of the Open Market Committee, the group that sets 172 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 7: interest rates, and he has a permanent vote on the committee, 173 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 7: and he is seen as one of the people closest 174 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 7: to Jay Powell, the chairman. So if you kind of 175 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 7: know what John Williams is thinking, You'll have a pretty 176 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 7: good idea of what Jay Powell is thinking, and so 177 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 7: that makes him a really important and interesting guest for us. 178 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: Exciting week ahead, Michael, thank you so much for being 179 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 1: here and coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. Some big 180 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 1: economic data coming out this week in the UK. We'll 181 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 1: get a preview. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. 182 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 8: This is the Bloomberg Black Business Beat. About ten years ago, 183 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 8: longtime health industry executive Derek Miles was frustrated. He felt 184 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 8: boxed in by the company he worked for. So when 185 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,319 Speaker 8: his company was looking to trim headcount, he took a 186 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 8: leap of faith. 187 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 9: I raised my hand and said, hey, I'll take these 188 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 9: seven packaging to come an entrepreneur. 189 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 8: First, he created a medical delivery service. 190 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 10: What we did was taken the philosophy or the platform. 191 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 8: For blouber Left and grub Lub and brought it into healthcare. 192 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 10: We actually launched a company and we started delivering prescriptions 193 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 10: and vitamins and CBD all the people's homes. 194 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 8: From there, the ideas kept coming, and today Miles is 195 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 8: founder and CEO of a successful concierge health company called 196 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 8: Cormed with an impressive list of business partners. 197 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 9: Here we are today providing concit health and wellness services 198 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 9: for bulk bracket banks, family offices, high network individuals. 199 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 8: And he's using his position as an entrepreneur of color 200 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:51,559 Speaker 8: to elevate more diverse voices. I'm Bloomberg's Justin Milliner. I'm 201 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:52,559 Speaker 8: the Black Business Speed. 202 00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our global look ahead 203 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 1: at the top stories for ves in the coming week. 204 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,320 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up later in our 205 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 1: program a trip to Jakarta to preview the Assion Business 206 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 1: and Investment Summit twenty twenty three. But first, the UK 207 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 1: has the worst inflation problem in the G seven, but 208 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 1: there are signs things are improving. The latest food price 209 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 1: data shows the pace of price increases is slowing, and 210 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: in the coming days we'll get a key update on 211 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: the jobs market, including wage growth. That's the metric policy 212 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:30,679 Speaker 1: makers at the Bank of England are most worried about. 213 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: And for more, let's head to London and bring in 214 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak Europe ankers Caroline Hepgar and Stephen Carroll. 215 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 9: Tom. 216 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 2: The UK has had a very tight labor market combined 217 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 2: with sky high inflation. Bloomberg's Jobs report with the Recruitment Firm, 218 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 2: read next week, could give us a valuable early insight 219 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:51,839 Speaker 2: into the jobs market in the UK and whether things 220 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 2: are improving. Recent data's offered something of a puzzle. You've 221 00:11:55,640 --> 00:12:01,199 Speaker 2: got rising unemployment and falling vacancies, but wages have actually 222 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 2: still been going up. Blomberg Economics thinks that the unemployment 223 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 2: rate might reach five percent by the middle of next year, 224 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,560 Speaker 2: but private sector pay growth for the three months to 225 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 2: June was running at a staggering eight point two percent. 226 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 2: To unpack all of this, I've been speaking to Bloemberg 227 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 2: economist Anna Andrade and Economics report Lucy White about the 228 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:26,000 Speaker 2: jobs picture in the UK and the dilemma it poses 229 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 2: for the Bank of England. 230 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:30,679 Speaker 9: So I think it's fair to say for the last 231 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 9: two months now that the UK jobs market is calling. 232 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:38,560 Speaker 9: I think we can say that with a bit more 233 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 9: confidence than probably at the start of the year, and 234 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:46,079 Speaker 9: that's because more indicators are moving in the right direction. 235 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 9: So we've had these kind of declining vacancies for a while, 236 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:51,440 Speaker 9: but in the last two months you really got this 237 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:56,719 Speaker 9: kind of increase in unemployment. Now, the problem is that 238 00:12:56,800 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 9: if you look historically, you know, the libor market is 239 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 9: still tight, and we've created this charge that kind of 240 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:06,559 Speaker 9: measures supply versus demand. And because this kind of imbalance 241 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:10,959 Speaker 9: has been what's kind of keeping inflationary pressures high. And 242 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 9: when you look at that, you see that the mismatch 243 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,719 Speaker 9: has eased a bit, but it's still far higher than 244 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 9: anything you've seen historically. So it's cooling. The liberal market 245 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 9: is calling. But the starting point was just an incredibly 246 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 9: red hot jobs market. So you know, for the BOE 247 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:28,679 Speaker 9: that might mean, you know that more is needed. 248 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 2: Lucy, how do you see the employment market at the moment? 249 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:37,079 Speaker 2: Cooling but from a very very difficult spot, and obviously 250 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 2: part of that is also the migration story. But how 251 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 2: do you see the labor market picture in the UK exactly? 252 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 11: I mean, we are starting, as I said, we are 253 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 11: starting to see that cooling. You know, anecdotally, I'm hearing 254 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 11: more about you know, people being made redundant and stuff, 255 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 11: although that is you know, kind of at a much 256 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 11: lower level than it has been historically. But at the 257 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 11: same time, you know, we came from, as I said, 258 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 11: such a high point. We're having to you know, we've 259 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 11: still got a skilled shortage in the UK. Many businesses 260 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 11: are saying that, you know, whether it be you know, 261 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 11: the very sort of high tech jobs that are in 262 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:14,199 Speaker 11: demand in the economy right now, or whether they're kind 263 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:18,199 Speaker 11: of high skilled manual jobs, you know, for example, worlders, 264 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 11: you know, construction workers, as we're still importing huge numbers 265 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 11: of people from abroad to help out with that skills gap. 266 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 2: And where do you see the unemployment rate going then 267 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 2: over the next six or twelve months, because obviously the 268 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 2: campaign of interest rate hikes that we've seen from the 269 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 2: Bank of England, part of that is to bring down 270 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 2: wadge gains and employment. So what what's the forecast you 271 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 2: think for the next six months. 272 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 9: So in our forecast, essentially this kind of increase in 273 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 9: unemployment that you've had over the past two months is 274 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 9: just the beginning of a more sustained increase. We see 275 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 9: the unemployment rate pecking at five percent by the middle 276 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 9: of next year. And that's a very different outlook or 277 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 9: sidely different outlook than the BOE. So we're a bit 278 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 9: more downbeat. The BEE at its latest forecast, of course 279 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 9: this was prior to the latest job jobs market data, 280 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 9: but it saw the unemployment rate hovering close to four 281 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 9: percent by the middle of next year. So that's a 282 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 9: one percentage point difference, which is quite significant. And I 283 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 9: think the difference between our forecast especially reflects the difference 284 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 9: in our views on how the economy is going to evolve. 285 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 9: We kind of see the economy tipping into recession, and 286 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 9: as you said, because of you know, it's a monetary 287 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 9: policy induced recession, and so we don't have a view 288 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 9: that there will be a soft a soft landing. It's 289 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 9: kind of that view. For you to believe in that view, 290 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 9: you really need to think that interest rates kind of 291 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 9: lost older power, and that's not what we're seeing in 292 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 9: deliber market, in residential construction, so we're already seeing signs. 293 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 2: So yeah, and that Goldilock sort of view of the economy, 294 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 2: which is dominated in the US but has also kind 295 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 2: of fed into the thinking in the UK, that does 296 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 2: seem to have faded. It seemed to be something that 297 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 2: was largely earlier this year. But the Bank of England's 298 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 2: yet to be convinced. 299 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 9: Yeah, I guess, so, I mean, we'll we'll we'll have 300 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 9: we'll have more data, and I think they have They 301 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 9: do think that the kind of the bounce back that 302 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 9: you're seeing in real wages and the drop in energy 303 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 9: prices that that's going to kind of I mean, and 304 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 9: those are important factors right now that can kind of 305 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 9: support the economy. But in the opposite direction, you have 306 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 9: interest rates and in the PMI, you know, so many 307 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 9: more businesses are quoting interest rates, so that's that's already 308 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 9: having kind of an impact. 309 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 2: Lucy. What sectors of the economy have held up sort 310 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 2: of best in terms of jobs demand and again, what's 311 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 2: the outlook over the next few months. 312 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 11: Well, we've been doing some really interesting work with read 313 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 11: Recruitment on this. They're one of the UK's biggest jobs 314 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 11: platforms in terms of you know, vacancies and job vacancies 315 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 11: and job offerings, and they have given us access to 316 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 11: all of the job postings that they've been putting on 317 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 11: their site since twenty eighteen. And there's some really interesting, 318 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:09,439 Speaker 11: you know, kind of hot spots in terms of the 319 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 11: sectors that are doing well at the moment, where vacancies 320 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 11: are high, where wages are high, and some of those 321 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 11: are areas like the energy sector. Obviously, you know we've 322 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,919 Speaker 11: been seeing you know, huge price increases in energy bills, 323 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 11: but that's in some ways translating into jobs as well. Also, 324 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 11: the consulting sector is you know, as London's the London 325 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 11: bubble always does particularly well in these times, So consulting 326 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:41,520 Speaker 11: is doing well. And there are other kind of you know, 327 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 11: high skilled areas that are you know, particularly in demand 328 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 11: right now. 329 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 2: How much do you think that mandating work in office 330 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 2: as opposed to work for hope is going to change 331 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 2: and we talk about high end jobs GOLDM. Sachs for example, 332 00:17:56,160 --> 00:18:00,680 Speaker 2: mandating a full return to you in person work. What 333 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:02,239 Speaker 2: sort of impact do you think that's going to have 334 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 2: on the labor market. Is that such a big story 335 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:04,880 Speaker 2: here in the UK. 336 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 11: Well, it's interesting because you know, we're coming from somewhere 337 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 11: where a few months ago, the big theme was that 338 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 11: the power was now in the hands of the workers. 339 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,919 Speaker 11: You know, there was such demand for workers that essentially 340 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 11: people could negotiate the terms of their own employment. You know, 341 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 11: everyone was demanding working from home, flexible working, and that 342 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 11: is starting to shift. I think as we see the 343 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 11: labor market calling you know, as you say, we're seeing 344 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 11: several firms sort of saying, you know, we want you 345 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 11: in at least three days, four days, sometimes even five 346 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 11: days a week, and workers now don't quite have the 347 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 11: same power, especially with inflation so high and you know, 348 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 11: the worry that a recession might be coming. Workers don't 349 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 11: quite have the same negotiating power to be able to 350 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,880 Speaker 11: fight that. And again, you know, the impact that we're 351 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 11: going to see on different types of people in the 352 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 11: labor market. You know, for example, since the pandemic ended, 353 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:57,239 Speaker 11: we've seen a huge rise in women's working hours, and 354 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:00,439 Speaker 11: I've been speaking to several experts on that. Many of 355 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 11: them have said it is due to this rise in 356 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 11: hybrid working, the fact that women who have typically tended 357 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 11: to take on more care responsibilities are now able to 358 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 11: work more of the hours that they want to because 359 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 11: of this hybrid working, you know, if they're looking after children, 360 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 11: and so the impact that we might see on that, 361 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 11: you know, whether we s see women's hours reverting to 362 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,359 Speaker 11: pre pandemic levels remains to be seen. 363 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 2: My thanks to Bloomberg Economics reporter Lucy White there and 364 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 2: our economists Anna and ra Day speaking to me ahead 365 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,879 Speaker 2: of the Bloomberg Read Jobs report that comes out in 366 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 2: the next few days. I'm Caroline hepget here in London. 367 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 2: You can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak 368 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,080 Speaker 2: you're at beginning at six am in London. That's one 369 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 2: am on Wall Street. 370 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 6: Tom, thank you, Steven and Caroline. 371 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,639 Speaker 1: Coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, we head to Asia 372 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,439 Speaker 1: and a look at the upcoming as Yon Business and 373 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:50,399 Speaker 1: Investment Summit. 374 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 6: I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. 375 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:07,920 Speaker 5: Broadcasting live from the Bloomberg it a active brokers studio 376 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,919 Speaker 5: in New York. Bloomberg e Lemon free oh to Washington, 377 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 5: d C, Bloomberg ninety nine one to Boston, Bloomberg one 378 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 5: oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to 379 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,880 Speaker 5: the country, Sirius XM channel one to nineteen to London 380 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 5: DAB Digital Radio, and around the globe the Bloomberg Business 381 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 5: app in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. 382 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 1: Hight top Us be in New York with your global 383 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 1: look ahead of the top stories for investors in the 384 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 1: coming week. And this week in Jakarta, it's the Assion 385 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:46,879 Speaker 1: Business and Investment Summit, and for more, let's go to 386 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 1: Hong Kong and Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Ryan Curtis and 387 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 1: his colleague Doug Krisner. 388 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 3: Tom In the coming week, Indonesia will be hosting the 389 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,679 Speaker 3: forty third Ossion Leader Summit in Jakarta. This is going 390 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 3: to be an opportunity to outline a long term vision 391 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,679 Speaker 3: for the group, but it will be difficult to ignore 392 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 3: what has been happening north of the region, the growing 393 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 3: tension between Japan and China. How concerned should these assion 394 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:15,119 Speaker 3: nations be over Tokyo's hardening stance against Beijing. Let's take 395 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,679 Speaker 3: a closer look now with Bloomberg's Isabelle Reynolds, Bloomberg Asia 396 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:22,119 Speaker 3: Government reporter, joining us from our studios in Tokyo. Isabelle, 397 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,719 Speaker 3: It's always a pleasure. It seems as though we have 398 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,200 Speaker 3: to begin with, and this may seem a little strange, 399 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,680 Speaker 3: the Chinese reaction to the move by Japan to release 400 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 3: that radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima reactor. How will this 401 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 3: or how has this impacted relation so far? 402 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 12: Right well, despite Japan's best efforts to explain the releases 403 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:48,920 Speaker 12: as something that's safe, that's routine, despite having the endorsement 404 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 12: of the IAEA, the nuclear body in international nuclear body, 405 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 12: China has really reacted in an extremely negative fashion. That's 406 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 12: been not just from the government, but from the public 407 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,680 Speaker 12: at large. So we've seen China slap a ban on 408 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 12: Japanese seafood, and we've seen a sort of social media 409 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:13,640 Speaker 12: campaigns against Japan. We've seen a campaign of phone calls 410 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,440 Speaker 12: made from China to Japan to all sorts of organizations 411 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 12: and individuals that are not even connected to this release. 412 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,399 Speaker 12: So it's created a whole lot of extremely negative emotion 413 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 12: in both countries, which is going to be quite hard 414 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 12: to get over it. 415 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 3: This may seem like a bit of an odd pivot, 416 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 3: but I'm wondering at the same time whether Japan's reputation 417 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:38,920 Speaker 3: has been tarnished enough to deter Chinese tourists because there 418 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 3: has been such a trend that's been holding up for 419 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,360 Speaker 3: such a long time. It seems like that we're Chinese 420 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,360 Speaker 3: tourists have been flocking to Japan. Is there some risk 421 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:50,919 Speaker 3: that that could weaken now? Would it be maybe a 422 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 3: longer term concern? 423 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 12: That could be a concern I think in the coming months, 424 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,280 Speaker 12: But whether it will actually last a long time, I 425 00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 12: think is less certain. We actually have a bi I 426 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,680 Speaker 12: report out on this, and looking back at the numbers 427 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 12: and previous spats that have existed between the two countries. 428 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 12: We've seen a dip or quite a sharp fall for 429 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,679 Speaker 12: a few months, but it soon bounces back. So I 430 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 12: think Japan might be relatively confident that although there will 431 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 12: be a temporary effect, the Chinese tourists will come back 432 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 12: in the end. Yet, the timing is a bit unfortunate 433 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 12: because China had just sort of lifted the ban on 434 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 12: group tours to a lot of countries, including Japan. So 435 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 12: Prime Minister Kishada even had said that he hoped to 436 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 12: see larger numbers of Chinese tourists in the coming months 437 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,200 Speaker 12: and years. So from that point of view, it's unfortunate 438 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,640 Speaker 12: for the tourism industry, but I don't think it will 439 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 12: be necessarily a very long term effect. 440 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,880 Speaker 3: Recently, the Prime Minister, and I'm speaking here of Keisha, 441 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 3: he labeled China as it's Japan's greatest strategic challenge. I'm 442 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 3: wondering when you hear a statement like that, how it 443 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 3: might reverberate across osion and whether it's brought maybe a 444 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 3: little bit more anxiety to the region situation where if 445 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,919 Speaker 3: you're a leader of an Asian nation, you may be 446 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 3: feeling some pressure to take sides right now to have 447 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 3: to choose between the world second and the world's third 448 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 3: largest economy. 449 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 12: Yeah, I think that the choice in Asian now is 450 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 12: really much more between China and the US. Japan is 451 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 12: sort of very much a second string at the moment 452 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 12: and a sort of a very close ally and increasingly 453 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,639 Speaker 12: close ally of the US. So I think that the 454 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 12: bigger issue on that front will be the fact that 455 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 12: Joe Biden is not taking part in the Asian summits 456 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 12: this time around, and that may be seen negatively by 457 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 12: some countries or leaders within the region. 458 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 3: Although Vice President Kamala Harris will attend, and I'm wondering 459 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:44,639 Speaker 3: whether or not that's going to offer kind of a 460 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:46,640 Speaker 3: positive tone somewhat. 461 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,199 Speaker 12: Yes, I mean I think not to send anybody, or 462 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 12: to send somebody much more junior would have been far worse. 463 00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 12: But on the other hand, I mean, for the President 464 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 12: of Indonesia, he would very much want to have this 465 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 12: sort of global attention and the glamour of hosting the 466 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,080 Speaker 12: US president, and quite frankly, the vice president isn't quite 467 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,159 Speaker 12: the same. So although Kamala Harris, we understand, we'll be 468 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,639 Speaker 12: making a huge effort to reach out to local people 469 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 12: and she'll be having a very busy schedule with a 470 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 12: lot of events. It just isn't quite the same if 471 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 12: you don't have the president on the ground. Having said that, 472 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,159 Speaker 12: I think on arguing from the other side that this 473 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 12: may not be a significant move by the US. They 474 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:27,200 Speaker 12: may not be intending any insult by this. President Biden 475 00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 12: has very much reached out to a lot of Southeast 476 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,840 Speaker 12: Asian countries, including the Philippines. He's made a great effort 477 00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:38,160 Speaker 12: to restore ties there. He hosted the Singaporean Premiere last year, 478 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 12: and then he indeed held a US especial, the first 479 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:44,160 Speaker 12: Special US Asian Summit at the White House last year. 480 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,200 Speaker 12: So I think from that point of view, they would 481 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 12: argue that they have been trying to strengthen Asian ties. 482 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 3: Nonetheless, I think we can agree that the global order 483 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 3: is changing quite dramatically. In recent weeks, we saw China 484 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 3: assert itself as a power behind the Brick Summit in Johannesburg. 485 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 3: How is that being viewed in Japan right now, that 486 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,479 Speaker 3: China seems to be aggregating more of its authority, more 487 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:05,159 Speaker 3: of its power. 488 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 12: Yes, I think that is something of a concern for Japan, 489 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 12: which has always tried to sort of maintain strong ties 490 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,440 Speaker 12: with the Middle East because Japan doesn't have a lot 491 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,400 Speaker 12: of its own sort of natural resources and so has 492 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,200 Speaker 12: been very heavily reliant, of of course, on the Middle 493 00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:24,200 Speaker 12: East for oil and so on. So to have those 494 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,159 Speaker 12: countries sort of move slightly out of its orbit and 495 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,400 Speaker 12: towards the kind of bricks and China side, I think 496 00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 12: is somewhat unnerving and is something that they will want 497 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 12: to sort of tackle and try to balance out in 498 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,159 Speaker 12: the coming months. So it'll be interesting to see what 499 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 12: they do to try to achieve that. 500 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 3: I'm wondering from the Japanese perspective whether the summit in 501 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 3: Jakarta presents an opportunity for Prime Minister a Kichi to 502 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 3: perhaps get a boost in his approval rating. Do you 503 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 3: think that's possible. 504 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,400 Speaker 12: I think there could be a possible boost on the margins. 505 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:59,680 Speaker 12: I don't think diplomatic efforts generally have a huge effect 506 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,480 Speaker 12: on public approval. The Japanese public is generally much more 507 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,920 Speaker 12: fixated on the bread and butter issues like probably most 508 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,359 Speaker 12: voters around the world, and his support at the moment 509 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,879 Speaker 12: is near its lows since he took office two years ago, 510 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 12: and one of the main reasons for that is rising 511 00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:20,359 Speaker 12: prices for things like gasoline and food, which are extremely 512 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:24,960 Speaker 12: concerning for many people in Japan. Having said that, if 513 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,480 Speaker 12: he is seen to be sort of standing up directly 514 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:31,800 Speaker 12: to China against these accusations that this water release from 515 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 12: the Fakushima plant is dangerous, I think that will improve 516 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,639 Speaker 12: his image somewhat in the eyes of the Japanese people. 517 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,840 Speaker 3: So to that point, I'm wondering the Premier Liu Chung 518 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 3: in China may be somewhat confrontational in that. Would that 519 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 3: be your expectation that there is the potential for a 520 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,760 Speaker 3: bit of embarrassment here or the attempt to embarrass that. 521 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,199 Speaker 12: Could certainly potentially happen. One of the traditional events that 522 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,679 Speaker 12: we have at Asian is what's called the Asian plus 523 00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 12: three event, where you have not just the Asian leaders 524 00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:03,480 Speaker 12: but also Japan, South Korea and China. And if China 525 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,880 Speaker 12: takes the opportunity of that event to sort of try 526 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 12: and berate Japan over the Fakushima water release, that would 527 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,879 Speaker 12: be a rather unpleasant and uncomfortable situation, of course for 528 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 12: the Japanese, and they will try to rebut that and 529 00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:20,400 Speaker 12: put forward their own views on how this release is going. 530 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 3: So we talked a moment ago about the possibility that 531 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,439 Speaker 3: this could maybe, maybe in a minor way, move the 532 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,920 Speaker 3: dial when it comes to kind of public sentiment with 533 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 3: regard to the Japanese Prime minister. But I'm wondering how 534 00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 3: he is being seen right now within the government within 535 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:37,399 Speaker 3: his own party. 536 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,480 Speaker 12: He's never been a sort of hugely popular figure within 537 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 12: his own party, but now that is also reflected in 538 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:49,080 Speaker 12: the among the general public as well, so he'll be 539 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,960 Speaker 12: He's planning, we believe, to reshuffle his cabinet next month 540 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:57,200 Speaker 12: in an effort to improve his standing, and he'll have 541 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,200 Speaker 12: to look carefully at which factions within his party are 542 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 12: represented in the cabinet and so on to maintain his 543 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 12: position until the party leadership election, which is just over 544 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 12: a year away at the moment. 545 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 3: What about the government's communication with China right now? Would 546 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,240 Speaker 3: that be something that the Prime Minister is really working 547 00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:14,840 Speaker 3: to improve. 548 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 12: I think he very much wants to improve communications with China, 549 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 12: despite having called it a risk to Japan's security. 550 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 3: I'll be looking forward to reading your coverage of the 551 00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,840 Speaker 3: Ossion leader's summit on the Bloomberg terminal. Isabelle, thanks so 552 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,720 Speaker 3: much for being with us, sharing your insight. Bloomberg's Isabelle Reynolds, 553 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 3: a Bloomberg Asia government reporter, joining from Tokyo. I'm Doug Krisner. 554 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 3: You can join Brian Curtison myself for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia 555 00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 3: weekdays beginning at six am in Hong Kong, six pm 556 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,479 Speaker 3: on Wall Street, Tom. 557 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 1: And coming up here on Bloomberg day Break Weekend, we 558 00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,800 Speaker 1: head to DC for the Biden administration's takeaways from the 559 00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:51,280 Speaker 1: August jobs Report. 560 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,880 Speaker 6: I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. 561 00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,360 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look ahead 562 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,520 Speaker 1: at the top stories for investors in the coming week. 563 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Busby in New York. Now, on Friday, we 564 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 1: got the August Jobs report, showing a labor market undergoing 565 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 1: a controlled cooling, punctuated by solid hiring, slower earnings growth, 566 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,440 Speaker 1: and more people returning to the workforce. For more, let's 567 00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 1: head to our Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington 568 00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,880 Speaker 1: and Bloomberg Sound On host Joe Matthew. 569 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,920 Speaker 4: That's on the impact of the jobs report. We'll surely 570 00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,480 Speaker 4: stick with us through the holiday weekend. After the report 571 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:37,959 Speaker 4: dropped Friday, I caught up with Julie Sue, the acting 572 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 4: Labor Secretary, for what the Biden administration is taking away 573 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 4: from these numbers. 574 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 13: So the slight uptick in unemployment was due entirely to 575 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 13: more people coming into labor market. I think that is 576 00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,280 Speaker 13: also a sign of optimism, right. It's a sign of 577 00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 13: the strength of our economy. It was also a very 578 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 13: small uptick, so that the overall unemployment rate remains under 579 00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:02,040 Speaker 13: four percent for the longest since the nineteen sixties. 580 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,720 Speaker 10: What do you think as we walk into this labor 581 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,960 Speaker 10: day when you see Wall Street rally on the idea 582 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:09,160 Speaker 10: of rising unemployment. 583 00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:13,400 Speaker 13: I think that these are all signs that the president's 584 00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:18,120 Speaker 13: economic agenda, what we call Bidenomics, is investing in America, right. 585 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 13: The idea that if we do our jobs well, we 586 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:25,280 Speaker 13: can have a tight labor market where workers share in prosperity, 587 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:30,880 Speaker 13: where we recover from the economic catastrophe of the global 588 00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 13: pandemic to a point where we have steady and stable growth. 589 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,600 Speaker 13: That all this is not only possible, but it's actually happening. 590 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 10: You've been asked a lot about union actions lately with 591 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,880 Speaker 10: regard to the UAW. What's going on in Hollywood right now? 592 00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,960 Speaker 10: There could be flight attendants involved. This could go beyond that. 593 00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:49,840 Speaker 10: I'm not going to ask you if you're getting involved yet, 594 00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 10: because I know you're waiting to be asked if that happens, 595 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:54,239 Speaker 10: to make a decision at some point. But what are 596 00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,880 Speaker 10: your models telling you if all of these strikes were 597 00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:58,880 Speaker 10: to coincide in the fall, what what that means for 598 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:00,120 Speaker 10: our economy? 599 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,320 Speaker 13: So let's put all this in the context of the 600 00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,600 Speaker 13: job's day numbers that we're talking about. This is an 601 00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,440 Speaker 13: economy that has defied all expectations in terms of its recovery, 602 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:13,480 Speaker 13: both the rapid pace of it and the and how 603 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:17,600 Speaker 13: broadly shared it is. This is Bidenomics in action. Part 604 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 13: of the President's commitment is to empowering workers, making sure 605 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,480 Speaker 13: that workers get their fair share and do well. And 606 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:27,040 Speaker 13: part of that has meant that unions have more ability 607 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:30,080 Speaker 13: power to demand changes at the bargaining table. We've seen 608 00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:33,560 Speaker 13: some really good results from that. Right the teamsters and 609 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 13: ups resolved their issues. People wrung their hands about that 610 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 13: too and wondered expected that not to happen. It not 611 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,560 Speaker 13: only happened, but they ratified a contract with some eighty 612 00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 13: six percent of members. The West Coast Ports twenty nine 613 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 13: ports resolved issues that were really complicated as well, and 614 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:56,479 Speaker 13: have a multi year contract. These are what happens. 615 00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 5: Do you see this resolving itself? 616 00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,239 Speaker 13: I mean, I'm not going to make a pretiction about that, 617 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,080 Speaker 13: but I do think that the process requires that we 618 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 13: respect the party's ability and their continued commitment to bargaining 619 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:07,240 Speaker 13: at the table. 620 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:08,680 Speaker 10: I have to ask you about Taylor Swift. 621 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:10,400 Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw Taylor Swift. 622 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:11,920 Speaker 10: When she came to town, but we're hearing that the 623 00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,000 Speaker 10: impact the Federal Reserve. You even mentioned this of her tour, 624 00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:17,760 Speaker 10: and even Beyonce's tour to some extent, helped to paper 625 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,600 Speaker 10: over some weakness that might have otherwise emerged in this 626 00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 10: job's report. What's it going to look like when everyone 627 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:24,360 Speaker 10: comes off tour after the summer. 628 00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,280 Speaker 13: So I'm going to say something about women in general. Right, 629 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,600 Speaker 13: women are powering this economic recovery. We can talk about Beyonce, 630 00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 13: we can about Taylor Swift. I want to talk about 631 00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,880 Speaker 13: the record numbers of women in the job market. 632 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:37,160 Speaker 9: Now. 633 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,240 Speaker 13: Remember during the pandemic, women were pushed out of the 634 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 13: labor market through things like our lack of paid leave, 635 00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 13: difficulty with accessing childcare. Those women are now back in 636 00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:50,240 Speaker 13: the labor market. We have the fifth month of historic 637 00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,400 Speaker 13: percentage of women in jobs, and I think we should 638 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 13: continue that effort to create good jobs, create good union jobs, 639 00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:58,959 Speaker 13: and make sure that everybody has access to them. 640 00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 4: It's acting Labor secret carry. Julie, Sue and Tom will see, 641 00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 4: of course, how the FED reacts to these jobs numbers 642 00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:05,800 Speaker 4: just a couple of weeks at the next FED meeting 643 00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:06,800 Speaker 4: in Washington. 644 00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:08,959 Speaker 6: I'm Joe Matthew. Thanks Joe. 645 00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:11,480 Speaker 1: That was Bloomberg Sound On host Joe Matthew reporting from 646 00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,840 Speaker 1: our Bloomberg ninety nine to one newsroom in Washington. And 647 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,840 Speaker 1: you can hear sound on weekdays one to three pm 648 00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,319 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio, and starting Tuesday, you can watch the 649 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:25,440 Speaker 1: show live on YouTube. Just search for Bloomberg Global News 650 00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 1: and that does it for this edition of Bloomberg day 651 00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,120 Speaker 1: Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at five am 652 00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,040 Speaker 1: Wall Street Time for the latest on markets overseas and 653 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:34,759 Speaker 1: the news you need to start your day. 654 00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:36,960 Speaker 6: I'm Tom Buzby. Stay with us. 655 00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:40,600 Speaker 1: Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.