1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Kind the Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:21,600 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Let's bring in Ken Leon, 7 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: Global Director of Industry and Equity Research at c f 8 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: r A Research. Ken, we're pretty much through the bank 9 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: earnings already. It's been quite the mixed result. Talked to 10 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 1: us about your overall impression and how much these banks 11 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 1: are differentiating one from the other these days. That's a 12 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 1: great question. And the gloom and doom from March to 13 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:45,920 Speaker 1: to really the summer seems to be over, so the 14 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: level of provision for loan loss and reserve seems to 15 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: have been stabilized. The increases for it's much much smaller 16 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: in the third quarter. But it's really a tale of 17 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: two stories. We're excited about the capital markets for the 18 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 1: pure plays like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stowing Tomorrow. They're 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:07,320 Speaker 1: gaining wallets share and they're also disruptors in the traditional 20 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 1: banking area for the main street type banks consumer and commercial, 21 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: they're facing still risk as it relates to how do 22 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:20,120 Speaker 1: you get volume going again for credit card and for 23 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 1: consumer lending um and it all seems to be a 24 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 1: steph function of the COVID nineteen. Will there be a 25 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 1: stimulus bill and will that sprinkle into the economy, you know, 26 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:35,479 Speaker 1: more activity, you know, US economy seventy consumer And that's 27 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 1: why Bank America stocks down today as well as some pressure, yes, 28 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:43,400 Speaker 1: they with JP Morgan and City. How much are these 29 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:46,680 Speaker 1: banks chasing investors right now and how much are they 30 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: just trying to stabilize themselves until perhaps they can give 31 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: out dividends again or you know, earn some money some 32 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 1: other way. Well, they have a dominant position. So looking 33 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: at the u US banking industry, they are gaining deposits 34 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: and the assets size, but they are learning their lessons 35 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 1: from the last recession and crisis. You know, credit quality 36 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: really matters, and they're letting on a lot of the 37 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: lower qualified homeowners for for mortgages or other areas like 38 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: or to go somewhere else in the shadow bank. You know, 39 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: so there is a quality story and you know, I 40 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:27,679 Speaker 1: think for investors. When you look at these stocks, the 41 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 1: broad bank stocks, the FED says, you can't raise dividends, 42 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: you can't buy backstock. We're going to tell you where 43 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:36,839 Speaker 1: we are at the end of this year. So there's 44 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 1: enormous capital being built up, which is why the return 45 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: on equity ratios and regulatory ratios are so great. So 46 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 1: next year it creates pent up return of capital to 47 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: shareholders with an economy that's probably gonna be better at 48 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: some point. In all of this means that this is 49 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: a cheap group. You know, you know, got City trading 50 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 1: at less than fift of that tangible book value, which 51 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 1: is crazy. We also see that relative to the rest 52 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: of the financial sector, investors are avoiding banks today, but 53 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: don't forget what this could look like six to twelve 54 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:17,359 Speaker 1: months down down the line. And that's I think this 55 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 1: quarter is a pivot from the dark days that we 56 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: saw since March to trying to figure out what next 57 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 1: year will be. Yeah, how much does that depend on 58 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:31,679 Speaker 1: stimulus and how soon it comes. I think stimulus is important. 59 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: So going back to the traditional banks, the consumer bank, 60 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: which is loans and credit cards. Unless we see the stimulus, 61 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 1: it's not going to raise consumer confidence levels for those 62 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 1: who work, and it's not going to add to relief 63 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: for those who are forbearance on thaying their credit cards. 64 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 1: It's a big problem. Twelve million out of work. I 65 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 1: think the question the market is not sure is the 66 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: election stimulus after the election or in January. This is 67 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 1: the wild card. So that's why the banks box really 68 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: aren't moving much this week. You know, can over the years, 69 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 1: you've covered them all. You've covered the big banks, You've 70 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: covered the boutique banks, you've covered the exchanges, you have 71 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 1: covered you know, everything that I can and can think 72 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:22,039 Speaker 1: of when it comes to the financial sector. What is 73 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: standing out to you as the most value right now? 74 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 1: What's your your strongest by let's say so in our team. 75 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,840 Speaker 1: So I covered just the large banks right now. The 76 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:36,280 Speaker 1: rest of it, the rest of the team, names like Visa, 77 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 1: master Card just beautifully positioned, you know, for that rebound 78 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 1: in terms of consumer and credit card and their platforms 79 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 1: um you know, so I think that's the area. You know, 80 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:51,279 Speaker 1: Acid Management is consolidating, we like black Stone, and that 81 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 1: will continue, you know. Morgan Stanley, I thought it was 82 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: a great deal. They paid a premium um, but you 83 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: know what they got with eating dances that a global platform. 84 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 1: So we're seeing consolidation and asset management, uh, and that 85 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 1: will continue as well. Are the likes of Visa master Card, 86 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:12,359 Speaker 1: as you say, the perfectly positioned for the consumer. But 87 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 1: are they under any threat at all from the more 88 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:20,159 Speaker 1: fintech E type companies out there? It's a good question. 89 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:22,839 Speaker 1: So for you and I as consumers, we think of 90 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 1: Visa or master Card just the credit card in our wallet, 91 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 1: but it's not. They really have a clearinghouse platform for 92 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 1: transactions and they really have less risk in terms of 93 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 1: some of the startups you know in the card area. 94 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: You know. So it's a complex business, but where these 95 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: Visa and master Card are situated is really in a 96 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 1: great position. And of course American Express has some of 97 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 1: that with their own private system, um, but you know, 98 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 1: they have a big travel business and we know what 99 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 1: Covid has done to that. Yeah for now, that's for sure. Ken. 100 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 1: Are you dipping at all into these fin techs and 101 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 1: and these different payment type companies and seeing which of 102 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 1: them is likely to survive the longer term? So we 103 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: are watching them, and mostly what we cover are the 104 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:16,239 Speaker 1: large incontents, which are also heavily and dusting, and actually, Ken, 105 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: I'm sorry we'll have to continue this another day, but 106 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 1: an extraordinary conversation with Ken Leon there of c f 107 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 1: R A, and we really appreciate his time. Now we 108 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 1: want to go to the Economic Club of New York. 109 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: President Trump is addressing the e C n Y excited 110 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:35,919 Speaker 1: to have with us. Now leading labor economist Danny Blanche Flower, 111 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: pro pressor of economics at Dartmouth College, former Bank of 112 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 1: England policymaker, and really, Danny, there are so many places 113 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 1: where we could start. I definitely want Have we got 114 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:48,720 Speaker 1: an hour and a half, right, we need to make 115 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 1: this extra long. Well, let's get straight to it then, 116 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 1: because we will talk breaks it in Boris Johnson and 117 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 1: coronavirus in Britain in a moment. But let's start with stimulus. 118 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: There is a little bit of head scratching I think 119 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: as to why how speaker Nancy Pelosi is holding firm 120 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,839 Speaker 1: and not accepting the one point a trillion dollars. And 121 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 1: I want you to explain why it might be better 122 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 1: for people who are suffering right now if Nancy Pelosi 123 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 1: doesn't accept it. If that's what you believe, well, I mean, 124 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: obviously there are There are arguments, strong arguments to suggest 125 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 1: that the Republicans should have gone out for a stimulus 126 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: expect especially in areas where their candidates are in trouble, 127 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: to boost how well people are feeling. UM. Stimulus in 128 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 1: this economy is needed because people are struggling. Um, they're furlowed. 129 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 1: Even if they have jobs, many of them have less 130 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 1: hours than they would like, so they have less spending 131 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 1: and that feeds through to the economy as a whole 132 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: and has a negative impact on the economy. So what 133 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: happened in earlier in the year when the economy tank 134 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 1: we went into lockdown, stimulus came that prevented things from 135 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: being a lot worse. Now, obviously, I think everyone's playing 136 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: political games um in a sense that if checks show 137 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 1: up prior to the election, perhaps that will boost the Republicans. 138 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: So this is in a sense, these of political games. 139 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 1: In terms of the economy, we need to get stimulus 140 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: in there, and we need to get it in there now, 141 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 1: especially as we're starting to see slowing down of the 142 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 1: economy and the virus spreading. So this is head scratching stuff. 143 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: People are playing politics with people's lives, and it's time 144 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 1: to go and get busy, as the old phrase said. 145 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: But Danny, there's stimulus, and there's stimulus, and I know 146 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 1: that there's an argument forgetting people, you know, cash immediately 147 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 1: because there are so many suffering out there. And we'll 148 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,680 Speaker 1: talk about the labor market in a moment, But is 149 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 1: it the right thing to do just to send out 150 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 1: once again and maybe give some targeted aid to airlines 151 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:56,839 Speaker 1: or whatever? You know, you know what targeted dates an 152 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,719 Speaker 1: important thing. I mean, I mean, what we know at 153 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:03,839 Speaker 1: the moment is that people who are especially struggling need help. 154 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,959 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm a labor economist. I have never seen 155 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: this phenomenon which I've seen in the last month or two, 156 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:13,440 Speaker 1: which is all of a sudden, wage growth in a 157 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 1: recession has gone from two percent to seven percent. Well, 158 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:20,200 Speaker 1: why is that wage growth is rising? Well, actually the 159 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 1: reason is at the bottom fifteen percent of so of 160 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 1: the wage distribution has dropped out. So it's like a 161 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:31,559 Speaker 1: baseball team's average improves because the two worst players drop out. 162 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 1: I don't mean sucess. These people are worse, but these 163 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:36,080 Speaker 1: are these are people at the lower end with low earning. 164 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 1: So so these folks have dropped out of the wage distribution. 165 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,839 Speaker 1: They need help to the economy. The great thing about 166 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: these folks is if you give them money, they spend 167 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 1: it and that has a very positive effect. So what's 168 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,559 Speaker 1: happening in the labor market, what's happening to people's consumption 169 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 1: is a really big deal. Yeah, down the road, you 170 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,440 Speaker 1: probably want to ensure that there are airlines out there. 171 00:09:57,520 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 1: I mean, it's a great phrase, you want to ensure 172 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 1: the commanding heights of the economy. But I think you're right, 173 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: we need to target it to people who have limited income. 174 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: It's not big and they're not working. They're not out 175 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 1: of work because they're lazy. They're out of work because 176 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: there isn't demand for people. And especially the evidence this 177 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 1: week is actually the job losses and the labor force 178 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: drops have actually disproportionately hit women because you know, it's 179 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 1: in the industries that they particularly working in restaurants and 180 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 1: and so on. So so I think this is a 181 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 1: really big deal. And it's interesting as a labor economist 182 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: to watch people dizzering when they should be acting, that's 183 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 1: for sure. And Danny a story that just came out, 184 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 1: and because it's in your wheelhouse most recently, I do 185 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 1: want to mention it Here, we've found out that the 186 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 1: number of Americans dying from drug overdoses hit a record 187 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: in the twelve month period ending March seventy almost seventy 188 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:52,080 Speaker 1: four thousand drug overdose deaths reporting in the twelve months 189 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,199 Speaker 1: through March, and they increased significantly at the start of 190 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 1: the pandemic. And I know that you've written a lot 191 00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 1: about this, Yes, so of say you know that there's 192 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: I mean, we're not we know this. They're suffering out there, Danny. 193 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 1: What happens with the labor market. Let's say that stimulus 194 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: is stalled for now and right, well, I mean we've 195 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:12,559 Speaker 1: done a lot of work, and Case and Deaton have 196 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 1: done all this work. And what they call death of despair, 197 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 1: I've been writing about distress. Well, let's just connect all 198 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 1: of this together. That the deaths of despair and overdose 199 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 1: death disproportionately occur amongst prime age less educated white were 200 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: more increasingly amongst minorities, but particularly amongst that group. So 201 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 1: distress is that which is the group that's crying out 202 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 1: for help, um, the prime age less educate particularly you 203 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: look who's going to Trump rallies. These folks are have 204 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: been left behind and are hurting, and no other country 205 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 1: in the world has an opioid epidemic like this. No 206 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 1: other country has had this huge set of prescriptions from 207 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 1: doctors of opioids that really haven't worked. And the crucial 208 00:11:57,160 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 1: thing to look back and now at is that America 209 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: has a crisis of pain. So even though these opioids 210 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 1: have been prescribed, they don't work, they don't solve pain. 211 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:09,079 Speaker 1: So Americans are in pain. One in four visits to 212 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 1: a doctor people report they're in chronic pain. And that's 213 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:19,319 Speaker 1: before the COVID virus hit. So there's vulnerable people, vulnerable communities, 214 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: and we have issues of suicide and overdoses. What are 215 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,959 Speaker 1: people doing? I mean, we need money to help communities. 216 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: And what's happened in the last decade with lots of 217 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 1: spending cups in in in public spending cups, we made 218 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: communities vulnerable and these folks have nowhere to turn. So 219 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 1: I think this is really terrible. American needs to try 220 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 1: and understand this in a state of where where Dartmouth is, 221 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: New Hampshire is one of these states which has unbelievably 222 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,959 Speaker 1: high opioid death rates. So this is something I think 223 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 1: that the American public needs to be aware of seventy 224 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 1: people dying from opioid overdoses. I mean there's others dying 225 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: from drug overdoses and suicides. So so this is a 226 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 1: real crisis that we're doing nothing about, and a stimulus 227 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 1: should focus on that, should focus on communities, to focus 228 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:07,679 Speaker 1: on trying to help mental health. And the idea that 229 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: you would remove healthcare for people who are hurting not 230 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 1: just physically, not just from COVID, but from from this 231 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: deep mental health crisis is hard to understand. Well, there's 232 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 1: a lot that's hard to understand about the current environment, Danny. 233 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 1: Let me ask you in the just little literally thirty 234 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: seconds that we've left. Unfortunately Boris Johnson, I mean, what's 235 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 1: his plan? Does he have one? No, hasn't got a plan. 236 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 1: I mean the cabinet is actually the cabinet of incompetence. 237 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: They're actually there because they all have views about Brexit, 238 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 1: but not not actually very competent. We're seeing disarray. I 239 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 1: mean even before COVID, I think I said on to 240 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 1: you and many times on Blumber, these guys don't know 241 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: what they're doing. Continuously mug by reality. They're supposed to 242 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 1: have a plan out there tomorrow, and the only I 243 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:54,679 Speaker 1: think the only question now is how big an impact 244 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 1: is this going to be? And we had a poll 245 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:59,719 Speaker 1: out yesterday which now says that fifty eight percent of 246 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 1: if the Scotts want independence, So it's splitting the community islands. 247 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: It's upset. It's just a disaster. Danny, thank you again. 248 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 1: We'll have you on again soon to talk more about this. 249 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: Dannie Blanche for our leading neighbor economist of course at 250 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 1: Dartmouth College, professor and former bo E policymaker. Let's get 251 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 1: an opinion now on some retail with Sarah Holzag, numer 252 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 1: Opinion consumer columnist. Sarah, we're in the middle of Amazon 253 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: Primes festivities. Let's put it that way. It started as 254 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 1: Prime Day and now it really is Prime Days. So 255 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: over several days, Amazon gives out deals. How is it 256 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 1: going this year? So we don't have any information from 257 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 1: Amazon yet on how is this on how it's going, 258 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 1: but indications are people are participating in large numbers. Some 259 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 1: third party data suggest that the hit items so far 260 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 1: are Amazon's own items, So it's Echo Dot smart speaker, 261 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 1: fire TV sticks, and Amazon gift cards. Yeah, no surprise 262 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 1: because those seem to be the products that Amazon pushes 263 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 1: all the time. You know, I spend a little bit 264 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 1: of time every now and then on Amazon's website, and 265 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,880 Speaker 1: even when you watch a Prime video, the ads in 266 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 1: the video are for Amazon products. I guess it's it's 267 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: not illegal, and why wouldn't Amazon do it? But does 268 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 1: it to suggest that customers are just being pushed towards 269 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 1: certain items that you know, they're not chopping maybe as 270 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 1: discerning lee as they would otherwise. I mean, Amazon does 271 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 1: certainly give really permanent play to these devices on its 272 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 1: home page, and you can see the reasons why they 273 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 1: would do that. It's all part of creating this very 274 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: sticky ecosystem where consumers have Amazon in all different parts 275 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: of their lives. So perhaps if you buy a Fire 276 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: TV stick, you're more likely to watch Amazon's video streaming programming. 277 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 1: Then your Prime membership feels more valuable to you, and 278 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: you're likely to redo it next year, and the fly 279 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: wheel kind of keeps going in that way. Um So 280 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 1: that's clearly a big reason I Amazon is pushing those 281 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 1: products today and will continue to do so throughout the 282 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 1: holiday season. It doesn't even seem that long ago when 283 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 1: analysts were speculating if Amazon would start its own sort 284 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 1: of in house brand, remember, and now suddenly it's all Amazon. 285 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 1: The other thing is that many of these products are 286 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 1: fulfilled by Do we know what kind of margin Amazon 287 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 1: gets on the products that are fulfilled by other merchants. 288 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: I think some of that is not terribly clear, but 289 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 1: I think that you know, marketplace orders are clearly a 290 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 1: big part of this as well. Uh. They really tried 291 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 1: to make a big push this year in their press 292 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 1: release and such, emphasizing that small businesses we're going to 293 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:43,240 Speaker 1: be uh you know, part of Amazon Prime Day, and 294 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 1: that they were going to try to create certain incentives. 295 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: I think some sort of like ten dollar credit or 296 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: something if he spent with a small business on Amazon 297 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 1: Prime Day. So trying to make this a rewarding day 298 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: in some ways for folks who use their film, that 299 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: services and such too. You point out a great insight 300 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 1: in today's column. Prime Day is a bigger threat than 301 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,720 Speaker 1: ever for rivals, and I'd urge everybody to read it 302 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:09,640 Speaker 1: that this year, you know, well we usually see Prime 303 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 1: Day in July. This year Amazon is using it as 304 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 1: a sort of a holiday kickoff retail extravaganza. I mean, 305 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 1: we're pretty much passed back to school, or maybe we're 306 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 1: right in the middle of it. But Amazon certainly trying 307 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 1: to take advantage of the calendar this year too, Yes, 308 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: they are, and that could have really big implications for 309 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 1: its competitors. So estimates are that Amazon is going to 310 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:34,359 Speaker 1: have about six billion in online sales take place on 311 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 1: its website during Prime Day. For context, last year, on 312 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 1: Black Friday, the entire retail industry so a seven point 313 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 1: four billion dollars in online sales, and in a typical 314 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 1: day during the holiday season, the entire retail industry sees 315 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 1: about two point three billion dollars in online sales. So 316 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 1: if Amazon rakes in six billion dollars in sales during 317 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: this period, that certainly would seem to be changing the 318 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,400 Speaker 1: entire rhythm of the holiday season this year and pulling 319 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 1: forwards some of those sales that would have happened on 320 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 1: marquee days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday. You know, 321 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 1: it's particularly sort of um something to see when you 322 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,919 Speaker 1: see on the other side of the ocean a sauce 323 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: which started out a little bit like Amazon. It was 324 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,200 Speaker 1: as seen on screen, and it was where you went 325 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: sort of to get your mail order a quick fix 326 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:28,639 Speaker 1: of clothing and other items. It could face a twenty 327 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: five million pound hit from taras in the event of 328 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 1: an odeal brexit. So obviously a sauce is not really 329 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,479 Speaker 1: a competitor to Amazon right now. It has other problems 330 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 1: to worry about. What are the main competitors to Amazon? 331 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 1: So Walmart and Target I think are the key ones. 332 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 1: Both of them have really made major investments in their 333 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 1: online infrastructure, expanding their assortment online and expanding their ability 334 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,440 Speaker 1: to get things to you quickly. I think that two 335 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 1: days shipping promise used to be Amazon's key differentiator, and 336 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 1: now a lot of items they're premising one day shipping. 337 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,359 Speaker 1: Walmart and Target are really racing to keep up with that. 338 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 1: Um Also, Walmart and Target are really going big on 339 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 1: curbside pickup, which Amazon crewy does not have as many 340 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:14,359 Speaker 1: outposts to be able to offer that, and a lot 341 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,400 Speaker 1: of shoppers really like curbside pickup and they can get 342 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:20,879 Speaker 1: the items same day and they in that way, you 343 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 1: can get it more quickly than if they waited for 344 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 1: it to come to their doorstep. So those are the 345 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 1: folks that are going to be really trying to duke 346 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:30,680 Speaker 1: it out with the Amazon this holiday season most directly. Yeah, 347 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:32,720 Speaker 1: that data is proving a real eye opener, the curb 348 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 1: side pick up part of things. I you know, not 349 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:37,640 Speaker 1: that I know anything, but I probably would have thought 350 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 1: that it wouldn't be as popular as it is. But 351 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 1: I guess for all the reasons you said, it is 352 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 1: actually more popular than you might expect. Now, will Amazon 353 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 1: ever upgrade it's consumer facing experience? I was looking to 354 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:52,920 Speaker 1: perhaps buy a gift card on Amazon the other day, 355 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 1: and honestly, it was just it was really difficult to 356 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: find how to how to do that. Now, maybe I'm 357 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 1: just not computer savvy. It does seem that Amazon is 358 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:06,919 Speaker 1: not putting much into its consumer experience. I completely agree 359 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,440 Speaker 1: with that, Vonnie. To me, it's just such a strange 360 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 1: thing that Amazon is the online drug or not that 361 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 1: it is, and that its website is as hard to 362 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,639 Speaker 1: sort through as it is. I think what Amazon is 363 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: really good at is when you know exactly what you want, 364 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 1: when you just want to refill the same laundry detergent 365 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: you always buy, or buy the same pack of diapers 366 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 1: you always buy. Amazon makes it very easy to run 367 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 1: an errand on the Internet. What Amazon is not good 368 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 1: at is discovery type purchasing. So when you know you 369 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,159 Speaker 1: want addressed, but you don't know exactly which one do 370 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:37,640 Speaker 1: you want things? Do you want blue? Do you want long? 371 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 1: Do you want short? It's not very good at that. 372 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: You know you want earrings, but none exactly which ones. 373 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:46,880 Speaker 1: It's very very difficult place to that, and I think 374 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 1: they have a lot of work to do to fix 375 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,240 Speaker 1: that experience. Sarah hol Zac always spot on our consumer 376 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:56,919 Speaker 1: reck opinion columnists, Thank you. President Trump. Speaking to the 377 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 1: Economic Club of New York and various economic clubs across 378 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: the dream, he had questioning from Cindy O'Connell of the 379 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 1: Economic Club of Florida, David Rubinstein of d C, and 380 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: Mike O'Neill of New York. We have Michael McKee with 381 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:12,120 Speaker 1: us now are chief correspondent for all things economic, both 382 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 1: national and international, and Michael a very serious conversation here. 383 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 1: The President putting out some ideas, a couple of inflammatory statements, 384 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: like how a Joe Biden presidency would be a socialist 385 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: dream in American nightmare. But at the end he was 386 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 1: asked about things like infrastructure, stimulus, national debt. Did we 387 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: hear anything new from the President? No, but we haven't 388 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 1: been hearing much new from him throughout this campaign. It's 389 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 1: he mostly talks about what happened in the previous three 390 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 1: or four years, and he talks a lot about, of course, 391 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:46,359 Speaker 1: what happened out of the Obama administration. UM the questions 392 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:52,159 Speaker 1: he was asked about infrastructure spending, he didn't answer. He 393 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 1: said what he always says about many different things, that 394 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,520 Speaker 1: he has a plan, but there's never any plan. They 395 00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 1: were coming close to a deal on infrastructure, at least 396 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:05,360 Speaker 1: Democrats in the House and the President when the President 397 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 1: got upset with Nancy Pelosi and broke off the talks. 398 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 1: And that was two years ago, and nothing's been done 399 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 1: on infrastructure since. The House and Senate have a very 400 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,159 Speaker 1: big differences about how you would pay for infrastructure and 401 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 1: how you'd structure the program. He said today the Wall 402 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:25,639 Speaker 1: is one of the biggest infrastructure projects. Ever, that's not true. Um. 403 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: He did shut down the border under the guys of 404 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 1: pandemic protection, so that part of what he said about 405 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 1: the wall was correct. He was asked about the deficit 406 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 1: and has somebody else says quite often about this. This 407 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,399 Speaker 1: is one of those um up is down down his 408 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,919 Speaker 1: up Trump statements. He said the deficit was falling and 409 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 1: we were going to pay off interest costs and start 410 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,920 Speaker 1: paying down principle on the deficit before the pandemic hit. 411 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: That's one hund degrees opposite from what was happening. The 412 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 1: deficit was rising significantly be for the pandemic because of 413 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,120 Speaker 1: the tax cuts. So um, it's hard to know exactly 414 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 1: what he was trying to do other than insult Joe 415 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 1: Biden and stir up his base. Yes, absolutely, and I 416 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,360 Speaker 1: think that's probably what we can expect from him as 417 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,639 Speaker 1: we approach the election. Is only what three weeks left, 418 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 1: and we're going to get you know, viewers questions, you know, 419 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: at some point tomorrow night, um and tonight in fact, 420 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:26,919 Speaker 1: as we will be hearing a lot more from the 421 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: president on economic matters and so on. But really nothing 422 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,879 Speaker 1: moves the needle until we get some more idea of 423 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 1: what happens with stimulus. And certainly Nancy Polosi doesn't look 424 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:38,199 Speaker 1: like she's about too given to to President Tom's requests 425 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 1: or whatever Republicans are requesting. Not that that's clear. Now. Well, 426 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,120 Speaker 1: even here's the thing. We have to remember that even 427 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 1: if the Speaker of the House and the Secretary of 428 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:51,000 Speaker 1: the Treasury agree on some kind of deal, it would 429 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,080 Speaker 1: have to pass the Senate as well as the House. 430 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 1: A number of House members have already suggested. House Democrats 431 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 1: have suggested they would vote against it because they don't 432 00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 1: think it's big enough. And the question then becomes how 433 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,720 Speaker 1: many Republicans would vote for it. If it's not considered 434 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 1: big enough, then in the Senate you don't have fifty 435 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,879 Speaker 1: senators who approve of it. The Democrats pretty united against it, 436 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:16,679 Speaker 1: and half of the Republican senators say they don't want 437 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 1: to spend anything. So at this point, there's a lot 438 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 1: of focus on Wall Street about the talks talks in 439 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 1: quotation marks between Nancy Pelosi and Stephen Manuchen. But the 440 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,959 Speaker 1: odds of something actually happening, particularly before election day, are 441 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 1: very very small. Yes, and for some reason, and she 442 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 1: wasn't quite clear about it yesterday when she was speaking 443 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 1: with wolf Blitzer. Non say, Pelosi is not willing to 444 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 1: even consider this one point a trillion dollar stimulus. What 445 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,400 Speaker 1: is it in there? Michael? Can you decipher that she's 446 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,120 Speaker 1: so against She was actually quite angry with the two 447 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 1: Democrats that said that they should be accepting this. H 448 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: The part of the plan. Part of it is the 449 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,359 Speaker 1: way the money is distributed. Part of it is the 450 00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,880 Speaker 1: amount of money for states and localities is not enough, 451 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 1: they believe, And part of it, obviously is politics. They 452 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,680 Speaker 1: don't want to give Donald Trump any kind of victory 453 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,800 Speaker 1: before the election. You remember the last time when the 454 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 1: Care's Act was passed and was going out for those 455 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 1: who got it in check form, Trump held up distribution 456 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 1: of the checks until he could have his name printed 457 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 1: on it. And last thing Nancy Pelosi wants is for 458 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 1: voters to be opening their mail the day before the 459 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: election and seeing Donald Trump giving them two Yes, that 460 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 1: is true, I'm sure, and also presumably that machine is 461 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:34,919 Speaker 1: up and running now, so there may not be so 462 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 1: much of a delay this time around. But there is 463 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,879 Speaker 1: an argument to suggest that people need cash now, no 464 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 1: matter how it comes and no matter who gets the credit, 465 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,400 Speaker 1: right Michael be Danny Blanchflower on earlier saying this country 466 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,159 Speaker 1: is in trouble. There is particularly because pore people are 467 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 1: losing their jobs now as we're finding more companies go 468 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 1: out of business, and the airlines are a perfect example, 469 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 1: not going out of business, but laying off tens of 470 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 1: thousands of people because they don't have any business to 471 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 1: do at this point, and that was one of the 472 00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 1: hopes of the stimulus bills that they could get aid 473 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:08,360 Speaker 1: to the airlines in the short term. But another interesting 474 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:11,240 Speaker 1: statistic came out from the New York Fed yesterday. Of 475 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 1: the people who got the stimulus checks the first time around, 476 00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: average of about dollars each either saved the money or 477 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 1: paid down debt, and they have money in the bank. 478 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:29,120 Speaker 1: And so if this rebound continued to go faster than expected, 479 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,879 Speaker 1: we might have a tailwind and we might need less 480 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 1: of the stimulus checks. I think the biggest difference now 481 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 1: is that there are going to be people who didn't 482 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 1: save or don't have the money, who are losing jobs 483 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 1: permanently who may need something. Yeah. I found that phenomenal 484 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,080 Speaker 1: as well, when you consider just how many people are 485 00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 1: at food banks and food lines as well who were 486 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,720 Speaker 1: once you know, happily employed, or all of the people 487 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,840 Speaker 1: around Orlando that are living in motels because they lost 488 00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,199 Speaker 1: their job at Disney, for example, and they have to 489 00:26:56,240 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 1: move every two weeks otherwise they risk you know, uh, 490 00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,399 Speaker 1: being a problem for the motel owner because after two 491 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,679 Speaker 1: weeks you can't you know, get evicted. Normally you have 492 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,679 Speaker 1: to go through the court process. I mean, there were 493 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,879 Speaker 1: in an array of stories out there about people suffering Michael. 494 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 1: What should we be concentrating on over the next couple 495 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,160 Speaker 1: of days. It feels like Joe Biden needs to get 496 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,680 Speaker 1: more of an economic message out there. Actually, Biden probably 497 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,919 Speaker 1: needs to publicize it. Joe Biden, if you look on 498 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 1: their website, has a very extensive economic plan that involves taxes, infrastructure, UM, 499 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 1: various pandemic recovery ideas. And Donald Trump UM. And I'm 500 00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 1: not saying this to be part of Donald Trump has nothing. 501 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,120 Speaker 1: If you go to his website, there are literally no 502 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:47,560 Speaker 1: proposals for a second term, and so it's kind of 503 00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:52,479 Speaker 1: hard to know, uh what he would do, and Biden 504 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 1: perhaps wants to make that case a little bit more. 505 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,679 Speaker 1: Donald Trump talk today about UM Biden plans, but if 506 00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 1: you're not us, in his speech, he didn't say what 507 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 1: he would do. He talked a lot about how bad 508 00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,680 Speaker 1: the Biden and the Democrats are. And that's one of 509 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,200 Speaker 1: the problems people have suggested that we're seeing with Trump's 510 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:14,560 Speaker 1: poll numbers is that at this point he is talking 511 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 1: about the previous four years and a lot of people 512 00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 1: didn't like what happened in the previous four years outside 513 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,399 Speaker 1: of the tax cut, and he's not talking about what 514 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 1: happens in the next four years or even in the 515 00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 1: next year, and that makes it hard to make a 516 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 1: case for your reelection. Yeah, it's it's it's a phenomenal 517 00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 1: time and and you know a lot of people pointing 518 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 1: out now that if we don't get something before the election, 519 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:37,840 Speaker 1: it's going to be January before we're even able to 520 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,959 Speaker 1: do more stimulus. Michael, thank you. We really appreciate your 521 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,720 Speaker 1: input and listening to that for us. That's Michael McKee, 522 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:51,120 Speaker 1: International Economics and Policy correspondent. Thanks for listening to Boomberg 523 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at 524 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn, 525 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter on equin and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm 526 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,640 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can 527 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:06,920 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.