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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podas.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen cuny twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty twenty five

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Speaker 3: fifty and the kick as block Book College Football World Stundar.

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Speaker 4: Oh my goodness, he's stumble.

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Speaker 2: And football the lateral turn, the counter on the job,

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Speaker 2: don't you believe? Not the table up the field tonight.

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Speaker 2: It's not the side of the game anything. It's the

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Speaker 2: side of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 3: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 3: on Campus Podcast presented by bet MGM. This is the

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Speaker 3: College Football Conference Championship weekend betting preview. I'm stuck you

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Speaker 3: enjoining me as always Colin Wilson, go from having the

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Speaker 3: handicap full slates with weekday games just ten. Did you

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Speaker 3: enjoy the process of deep diving on these ten games?

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Speaker 2: I couldn't be happier ten games to focus on. This

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Speaker 2: is kind of a bold prep weekend for us. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I love doing this. You know, it's bittersweet because I

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Speaker 3: will miss the whole full cards, But just to take

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Speaker 3: ten games, spend extra amount of time on them, it's

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Speaker 3: a beautiful thing. By the way, before we get into

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Speaker 3: all ten Conference Championships, Arkansas, Big Big, I was gonna

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Speaker 3: make you do the episode with a neck brace that

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Speaker 3: they didn't cover for me. I thought I saw you

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Speaker 3: when they stormed the court, I thought I saw you

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Speaker 3: running toward Petrino to get a secure an interview for

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Speaker 3: SEC media days.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I wasn't on the court, but I was within

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Speaker 2: proximity of Patrino and Pittman, and I don't think I

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Speaker 2: saw Pittman crack a smile. And thirty minutes of just

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Speaker 2: looking up there, I don't think I saw a smile once. Petrino, though,

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Speaker 2: looks like a kid just woke up on Christmas feeling

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Speaker 2: his old roots, sitting out tweets about how much he

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Speaker 2: misses Ryan Mallett. I mean, this Patrino thing is just

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Speaker 2: gonna be such a hot topic. I can't wait. Woo

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Speaker 2: Pig silly.

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Speaker 3: Just to give people a heads up on scheduling and

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Speaker 3: some high level stuff. Since it's not gonna be they're

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Speaker 3: not gonna be normal weeks moving forward, we will have

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Speaker 3: our normal recap episode on Monday, so don't forget about

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Speaker 3: the voice maun nine to five nine Bad Beat. This

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Speaker 3: weekend we will have a new BCS episode which will

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Speaker 3: be out wherever you listen to the podcast also on

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Speaker 3: live on YouTube ten thirty m Eastern on Tuesday. We'll

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Speaker 3: also talk Army Navy in that episode, and then we

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Speaker 3: won't have obviously you have a group of five or

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Speaker 3: regular betting preview episode for next weesonce it's just Army Navy,

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Speaker 3: and then we will but we will have a three

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Speaker 3: man week college basketball episode to ramp those up to

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Speaker 3: three times a week. In the New year. Week of

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Speaker 3: December eleventh, we'll start talking bowl seasons while periodic at

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Speaker 3: this issue sodes going over groups of bowls in chronological order,

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Speaker 3: so just stay tuned on Twitter. We'll keep you guys

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Speaker 3: all updated. Also, as a reminder of the BBC podcast

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Speaker 3: centered by VETEAMGM, use bonus code action when signing up

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Speaker 3: in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

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Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming. Terms

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Speaker 3: conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older. Gambling problem

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Speaker 3: call one eight hundred gambler. The interesting thing about this

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Speaker 3: card which made it I think one of the most

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Speaker 3: difficult handicaps I can remember. For a conference championship weekend,

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Speaker 3: There's sixteen quarterbacks who will start under center on Saturday,

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Speaker 3: with eight games kicking off. Nine of the sixteen quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: either didn't start the year as the starting quarterback or

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Speaker 3: lost their job at one point during the season. You

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Speaker 3: have two true backups who didn't play at you know

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Speaker 3: well eighty on spit took over for Miami ol High

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Speaker 3: halfway through the year. You have Kevin Jenny's is gonna

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Speaker 3: start for the first time for SMU. You have Tate

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Speaker 3: Rodamaker making his second supper photo State. So there's a

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Speaker 3: lot more quarterback uncertainty than you usually see on conference

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Speaker 3: championship weekend. All right, let's go in chronological order. Let's

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Speaker 3: start on Friday night with the first conference championship game.

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Speaker 1: Conference USA, New Mexico State and Liberty.

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Speaker 3: Liberty is a eleven point favorite here. Over has taken

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Speaker 3: a ton of money up to fifty seven. New Mexico State. Okay,

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Speaker 3: the Ponzis team, they've covered ten straight games coming into

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Speaker 3: this weekend, we have a lot of the best against

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Speaker 3: the spread teams in the country playing. Mexico State eleven

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Speaker 3: and two six and one is an underdog covered ten

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Speaker 3: straight UNLV ten and two, Ivan Ozen underdog Oregon nine

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Speaker 3: to two and one Mine Ohio nine and three. Those

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Speaker 3: are four of the seven FPS teams are at least

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Speaker 3: nine covers on the season. The other three not playing

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Speaker 3: this weekend are Arizona, Jacksonville State in San Jose State,

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Speaker 3: which all easily could have made it a couple other

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Speaker 3: games Broke or Jacksonville State was eligible. Liberty, by the way,

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Speaker 3: wasn't too far bonden. They finished eight and four against

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Speaker 3: the spread. I can tell you earlier this season, I

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Speaker 3: bet Liberty at home. This is a one of the

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Speaker 3: I think four rematches from the regular season this weekend,

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Speaker 3: And it is worth noting that historically conference championships about

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Speaker 3: fifty percent against the spread for the team that lost

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Speaker 3: the first match or one. But the team that lost

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Speaker 3: the first matchup has improved the scoring margin by about

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Speaker 3: an average seven points per game, So you know, maybe

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Speaker 3: they make the adjustments that they would make the team

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Speaker 3: that lost maybe favor them a bit Earlier this season

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Speaker 3: I played Liberty minus nine and a half at home

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Speaker 3: against the Mexico State covered that game, they won by sixteen.

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Speaker 3: I made that like close to twelve. Since then, I've

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Speaker 3: upgraded New Mexico State. I've also upgraded Liberty, who's arguably

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Speaker 3: been the best group of five team. So I'm close

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Speaker 3: to like thirteen ish here. Neither team has played anybody

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Speaker 3: either schedules or both a joke. They play in Conference USA,

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Speaker 3: but they have a really similar schedule. Obviously they're in

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Speaker 3: the same conference. They both played UMass, so they've played

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Speaker 3: eight common opponents if you remove garbage time. Liberty won

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Speaker 3: by an average score of forty to nineteen against those

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Speaker 3: eight opponents and outgained them by one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 3: five yards. New Mexico State won by an average score

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Speaker 3: of twenty seven to eighteen, so you know, almost two

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Speaker 3: touchdowns less, and only outgained those opponents by an average

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Speaker 3: of thirty yards, so one sixty five to thirty and

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Speaker 3: twenty one average margin to The Mexico State was tied

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Speaker 3: in a fourth in a number of those games, and

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Speaker 3: they lost out right by sixteen to Liberty. Mesico State

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Speaker 3: does have a special team's edge here, which I think

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Speaker 3: is worth noting. Both run heavy offenses, both top ten

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Speaker 3: in line yards, top ten in rush success right both

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Speaker 3: top fifteen, and tackles for loss allows You're probably not

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Speaker 3: gonna see a lot of negative plays. But the Liberty

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Speaker 3: defense is top thirty in line yards. Mesco State is

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Speaker 3: seventy ninth. I think that the Liberty offense. Both offenses

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Speaker 3: should have some success here, but the Liberty offense I

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Speaker 3: think will have easier past success. Being at home also

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Speaker 3: obviously helps. I would lean Liberty, but there's not enough

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Speaker 3: value for me to get involved past to me, But

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Speaker 3: I'm throwing a round robin. Maybe I'll start off with

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Speaker 3: Liberty just for some action on the game. What do

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Speaker 3: you see here?

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Speaker 2: Well, I fully endorse the over. Each team is heavy

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Speaker 2: and running, and neither team is really that well versed

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Speaker 2: and stopping it. More specifically, can Liberty defend Diego Pavie

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Speaker 2: and what he has turned into? And you have to

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Speaker 2: look like, when's the last time they faced a mobile quarterback?

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Speaker 2: I mean, Grant Wilson of Odu had sixty yards, but

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Speaker 2: it didn't matter. They lost thirty eight to ten. Liberty

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Speaker 2: did face Keig and Shoemaker of Sam Houston. Now he

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Speaker 2: did make a difference. He had fifty two yards in

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Speaker 2: the ground, he averaged seven point four carry, and Liberty

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Speaker 2: won that game just twenty one to sixteen. So you

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Speaker 2: have to ask, you know, can Diego do what he

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Speaker 2: did before? Way back on September ninth, he had sixty

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Speaker 2: three yards on the ground, he averaged seven per carry.

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Speaker 2: The problem in that game is he had two interceptions

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Speaker 2: and a fumble. You eliminate those mistakes, they probably still

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Speaker 2: would have lost the game. But covered Mexico State punted

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Speaker 2: just twice in ten offensive possessions. To me, that tells

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Speaker 2: me if you can just get to scoring opportunities past

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Speaker 2: the forty yard line, which you were able to do before,

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Speaker 2: but you had three turnovers, if you eliminate those turnovers,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna be able to keep up here in Mexico

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Speaker 2: State is all inside zone and power with Diego. Liberty's

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Speaker 2: defense is terrible against inside zone. They only have a

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Speaker 2: forty four percent success rate. It's extremely low. About national

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Speaker 2: average is fifty two percent, and they are allowing a

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Speaker 2: boatload of explosives from inside zone.

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Speaker 3: So I do think jove schedule with that success rate one.

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Speaker 2: Hundred and thirty third strength of schedule in the nation

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Speaker 2: belongs to Liberty. That's only considering FBS team, so it

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Speaker 2: is the worst when you go to the other side.

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Speaker 2: I just I don't see any resistance for Cadence Salter

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Speaker 2: and Quentin Cooley running back quarterback. There. New Mexico State's

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Speaker 2: ninetieth and defending the run. They're eighty ninth and tackling.

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Speaker 2: There's going to be some arm tackles that get broken here.

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Speaker 2: So I fully endorse the over. We've got to go

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Speaker 2: to the ledger and fix the accounting here. I took

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Speaker 2: Liberty plus two eighty futures on the podcast with Ion

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Speaker 2: l O and Caliberts back in the summer, so I'm

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Speaker 2: not hedging that ticket that I have. I would be

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Speaker 2: interested in taking New Mexico State at thirteen for a unit,

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Speaker 2: but it's not there. It's at eleven. Looks like that's

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Speaker 2: what the buying point is going to be, and if

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Speaker 2: it stays there, I'm just going to write out the future,

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Speaker 2: but fully endorse the over.

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Speaker 3: Let's get to a game, the other game on Friday night,

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Speaker 3: which with much bigger national implications, and we'll talk the

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Speaker 3: last Pact Championship game ever Friday night, eight pm Eastern

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Speaker 3: on ABC between Oregon and Washington. Oregon nine and a

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Speaker 3: half point favorite. Here unders tick down to from sixty

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Speaker 3: eight and a half to sixty five and a half.

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Speaker 3: Unprecedented situation. Here, you have a top five team that

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Speaker 3: is undefeated, as that won the regular season meeting as

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Speaker 3: an underdog of more than a touchdown in the conference

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Speaker 3: championship game. Now we have seen two other teams in

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Speaker 3: their conference championship that will ranked in the top five

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Speaker 3: and undefeated. The underdogs of seven or more only happened

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Speaker 3: twice prior Alabama was undefeated a number one. They were

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Speaker 3: plus ten against Florida in two thousand and eight, lost

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Speaker 3: by eleven, but they didn't in the regular season. And

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Speaker 3: then in twenty twenty COVID year when Notre Dame was

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Speaker 3: in the ACC, they were number two and undefeated. In

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Speaker 3: the AC championship game, they're plus eleven and a half

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Speaker 3: against Clemson, they lost by twenty four, so neither covered.

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Speaker 3: Why that this situation is different is, yes, Notre Dame

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Speaker 3: did beat Clemson during the regular season, but if you recall,

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Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence didn't play in that first meeting, So this

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Speaker 3: is a very unique situation. Casual recreational betters is probably

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Speaker 3: gonna jump off the page this line, right, you say, wow,

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Speaker 3: this team is undefeated top five, they already beat them,

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Speaker 3: and now they're catching nine and a half on the

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Speaker 3: neutral field. I think that fifteen years ago this line

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Speaker 3: would have been three. We could have bet Oregon. But

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Speaker 3: the market is much more efficient now. You also have

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Speaker 3: all these like TALT groups that used to wait until

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Speaker 3: like Thursdays to release their plays. Everything is out now

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Speaker 3: and look that people make their living, how they're going

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Speaker 3: to make their living. And then it's always a race

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Speaker 3: and a competitive market, so everyone is trying to get

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Speaker 3: ahead of everyone else. And now all these plays got

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Speaker 3: on like Mondays, and then the market is just gets

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Speaker 3: ruined so much earlier.

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Speaker 2: I still contend that's our fault, that that's the Action

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Speaker 2: Network having an app that blasts out, but anyways, I digress.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's that the market gets beat up so

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Speaker 3: much earlier when it's harder to bet, a lot of

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Speaker 3: professional betters out there are not too happy about that.

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Speaker 3: But the market's evolved and you gotta adjust. So this

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Speaker 3: SAT and the market just overall and with legalization, has

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Speaker 3: sped this up as well. The market overall is just

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Speaker 3: much more efficient. So in this game, I mean, the

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Speaker 3: Washington's defense is bad. There's second worst line yards one

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifteenth and tackles for loss, tenth and explosive.

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Speaker 3: That one thing they do was they don't allow explosive

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Speaker 3: plays their tenth and explosiveness allowed. But that doesn't really matter.

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Speaker 3: It's Oregon. Oregon gets are exposed to plays through like

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Speaker 3: short passing game, broken tackles. They're not trying to chuck

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Speaker 3: it downfield. The Washington defense, though it has improved a

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Speaker 3: bit of late. Carson Brunner playing more, has really held.

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Speaker 3: I don't know why he wasn't playing all year, but

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Speaker 3: they've gotten a little bit healthier, changed their safety orientation,

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Speaker 3: so their defense is actually played a little bit better

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Speaker 3: of late, but their offense just hasn't been the same

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Speaker 3: overall since since the Oregon game. Really, I mean, Oregon

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Speaker 3: is clearly better from a power ratings perspective, just if

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Speaker 3: you look at any surface statistics. If you look at

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Speaker 3: their seven common opponents, Oregon won by an average of

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Speaker 3: twenty points Washington seven. Even when they played each other.

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Speaker 3: You know that game was in Seattle and Oregon probably

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Speaker 3: should have won. They outgained them, they just couldn't convert

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Speaker 3: a fourth down. I don't see any value in the line.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's just a really sharp number. I think

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Speaker 3: Oregon gets their revenge here. I used the Oregon as

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Speaker 3: a money line piece to like bring down some NFL

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Speaker 3: money lines. Someone sent me a ticket. I don't really

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Speaker 3: bet the Heisman, but someone sent me a ticket. They

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Speaker 3: parlayed bo Nick's Heisman and Bonick and then Oregon to

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Speaker 3: make the playoff. I didn't know you could do that,

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Speaker 3: but and then paid like plus one fifty, And yeah,

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Speaker 3: Oregon wins this game making the playoffs in my opinion,

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Speaker 3: And if Oregon wins this game, I think bo Knicks

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Speaker 3: is winning the HIGs. Pennix and Daniels the only other

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Speaker 3: guys in the conversation. Daniels isn't playing, and if Pennix

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Speaker 3: loses the Knicks, he's not surpassing him. So I think

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Speaker 3: that's the more prudent approach. If you like Oregon to win,

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Speaker 3: is bet Knicks to win the Heisman the way that

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Speaker 3: I say it. If Oregon wins, Knix is winning the Heisman.

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Speaker 3: I like Oregon to win, but very sharp number. I

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Speaker 3: lean under here. I played under in the first matchup,

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Speaker 3: probably the wrong play, even though it had a chance

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Speaker 3: to win. But this is a fast track and there

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Speaker 3: could be a lot of explosive plays, so I'm you know,

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Speaker 3: the numbers come down. I wish I had. If I

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Speaker 3: had a sixty eight or better, I would have played

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Speaker 3: the under. If there's a quick score or something, I

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Speaker 3: might look live for the under. But yeah, Oregon money

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Speaker 3: line in some places, I'm probably look to bet Knicks Heisman.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think we should start off with why Washington

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Speaker 2: is nine and a half or ten in the market.

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Speaker 2: First off, is Michael Pennock's healthy. There are rivers floating

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Speaker 2: around that he's hurt. That could be, you know, one

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Speaker 2: of the many factors why this line has gone up

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Speaker 2: so high.

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Speaker 3: There's also why the offense just hasn't been the same of.

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Speaker 2: Late right exactly, And there's just been so many consecutive

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Speaker 2: big games in a row here. Can you believe that

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Speaker 2: their biggest margin of victory over like the last five

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Speaker 2: weeks is USC by ten, maybe Washington State by three,

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Speaker 2: Oregon State by two, Utah by a TD, Stanford by nine,

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Speaker 2: Arizona State by six. How many games. That's six games.

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Speaker 2: I mean, USC by ten is their best win over

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Speaker 2: the last second half of the season. They're sputtering out.

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Speaker 2: Don't know if it's tired, don't know if it's conference scheduling.

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Speaker 2: Pennis had three turnover worthy plays against Washington State. If

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Speaker 2: you turn over to Ryan Grubb, offensive coordinator for Washington,

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Speaker 2: he says in the press conference, Washington State had all

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Speaker 2: of our plays, all of our signals. I had to

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Speaker 2: change everything at halftime. I'm not sure it made much

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Speaker 2: of a difference. They still need a field goal to

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Speaker 2: win that game. Also, yes, they have been lucky. They've

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Speaker 2: been one of the luckiest teams when it comes to

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Speaker 2: second order win total, which is just a pathag way

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Speaker 2: of looking at points four and points against. The defense

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Speaker 2: has problems. We've talked about this at nauseam. I mean

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Speaker 2: they're near dead last and stuff. Right. Tackle grading is

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Speaker 2: the reason Organ's going to win this game. Washington's one

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Speaker 2: hundred and thirtieth and broken tackles allowed. You can't do

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Speaker 2: that against Oregon. Oregon is second nationally in creating broken

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Speaker 2: tackles with Bucky Irving Franklin. So the data, the stats,

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Speaker 2: everything backs up. Why this number is the way that

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Speaker 2: it is. And I've said this over and over everywhere

305
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Speaker 2: I can be. Bo Nix is playing a flawless season.

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Speaker 2: Three turnover worthy plays and four hundred and twenty five

307
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Speaker 2: dropbacks this year. You know, he finally had his highest

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Speaker 2: number of rushing attempts against Oregon State last week. He

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Speaker 2: had two scrambles and three design yards. He's been averaging

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Speaker 2: about fifteen yards per game. But you and I both

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Speaker 2: know he can run a lot if they give him

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Speaker 2: the call and they put the design. You know, if

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Speaker 2: Landing decides it's time for him to run, We've saved

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Speaker 2: him all a year for this. That is an element

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Speaker 2: that Oregon has not flash that we know.

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Speaker 3: Is there bow next season then full effect.

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Speaker 2: I think Washington has an attempt to backdoor this, so

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to with the nine and a half

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Speaker 2: and ten. I will not be shocked if Washington finds

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Speaker 2: a way to cover this game. But I think Oregon

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Speaker 2: futures are ripe. They're at five to one now. If

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Speaker 2: if we follow Brett's bull predictions, if we follow where

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Speaker 2: they're going to fall in the seating, it looks like

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Speaker 2: Michigan Oregon. I've got Oregon favored by a point over Michigan.

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Speaker 2: So I'm going to take five to one. I've already

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Speaker 2: bought him at thirty to one. I bought him at

327
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Speaker 2: twenty to one. I bought him at ten to one.

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Speaker 2: If you don't have an Oregon national title future, there's

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Speaker 2: five to ones out there, and I think they'll be

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Speaker 2: favored by one point over Michigan. That's a good ticket

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Speaker 2: to have for a national title at this point in

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Speaker 2: the season. So we're going to play bo Nix. I

333
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,040
Speaker 2: took the under two, by the way, stuck under sixty

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Speaker 2: six and a half sixty five's key in that range.

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Speaker 2: So look at the under there. If they both run,

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Speaker 2: then it's going to go under. But think about this too,

337
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Speaker 2: bo Nix. Rushing props are coming on the over at

338
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Speaker 2: some point, Bonnix. Anytime TD sign me up Bonix over rushing.

339
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Speaker 2: Lanning knows he's got that in his back pocket. It's

340
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Speaker 2: just a matter of when he's going to implement it.

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Speaker 2: It's bow tie.

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Speaker 3: Like a powder keg in your mouth, sucking stown yep.

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Speaker 3: I would agree there. I think it's worth a look.

344
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Speaker 3: We'll keep our eyes there. By the way, I expect

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Speaker 3: Landing to stick to his guns be aggressive on fourth downs,

346
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Speaker 3: and don't be surprised of all the fourth downs break

347
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Speaker 3: Oregon's way after that first meeting, Washington opponents on the

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Speaker 3: air thirteen of thirty three on fourth down for that

349
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Speaker 3: defense that can't stop anyone up front, thirteen of thirty three.

350
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Speaker 3: One of the luckiest teams on fourth downs in the country.

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Speaker 3: And by the way, Washington's got ten of thirteen, so combined,

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Speaker 3: thirty of forty five of their fourth downs have gone

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Speaker 3: their way on offensive defense combined. All right, let's move

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Speaker 3: on to Saturday chronologically. So let's start with the Big

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Speaker 3: twelve championship between Texas and Oklahoma State.

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Speaker 4: The stars at nine are big again, the fright yeah yeah.

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Speaker 3: Defense of Texas, the raresh guy.

358
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Speaker 4: Why Texas has taken money to cross over the two

359
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:13,600
Speaker 4: touchdowns spread threshold their fifteen point favorite here over under

360
00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:15,359
Speaker 4: sitting at fifty five.

361
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Speaker 3: The one thing that I'm worried about is gundhy voodoo.

362
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 3: I mean, this is Oklahoma State team I don't think

363
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 3: is very good, but Gundy seemingly gets his team to

364
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:28,240
Speaker 3: overperform in big spots and as an underdog and against

365
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:32,359
Speaker 3: ranked teams for whatever reason. But look from a matchup standpoint,

366
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 3: this is a nightmare for Oklahoma State. You cannot run

367
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Speaker 3: on Texas period, end of story. No one's been able

368
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Speaker 3: to do it this year. They ranked sixth in rush

369
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Speaker 3: explosiveness allowed. That's the Oklahoma State offense, eleventh in rush

370
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Speaker 3: access rate, second ePaper rush, you name it. And then

371
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:54,800
Speaker 3: what does that mean? That means Oklahma State can't get

372
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Speaker 3: Ali Gorton going. That's pretty much the their offense is

373
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Speaker 3: Ali Gordon explosive runs. And then when Ali Gorton gets going,

374
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,160
Speaker 3: it sets up the play action and easy passes for Boeman.

375
00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:06,720
Speaker 3: If Gordon can't get going that then they can They're

376
00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 3: not going to have the play action there, and then

377
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:10,440
Speaker 3: they're gonna be in third and longs against the number

378
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Speaker 3: one third down defense in the country. So the Oklahoma

379
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,800
Speaker 3: State what's the path that's tests for the Oklahoma State offense?

380
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 3: Pray pray in Gundi voodoo, I don't know. Oklahoma State's

381
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 3: pass defense is bad trusted for schedule outside of the

382
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,359
Speaker 3: top one hundred. So this Texas offense is rolling. They

383
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 3: should pick apart this Oklahoma State secondary. Texas also needs margin.

384
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 3: I think they want style points. So the y Oklahoma

385
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,119
Speaker 3: State defense, by the way, dead last in passing played

386
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 3: explosiveness allowed. That's not great against Texas, by the way. Also,

387
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,959
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State opponents I mentioned fourth down luck four of

388
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 3: twenty three on fourth down seventeen percent. Opponents have gone

389
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,200
Speaker 3: against the Oklahoma State defense, number one in the nation.

390
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:52,120
Speaker 3: Regression monster looms there when sark, you know Start's probably

391
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 3: going to go for it a couple of times. The

392
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,919
Speaker 3: number is high. Raw number a little high for me.

393
00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:59,439
Speaker 3: I saw you put in a team total over on Texas,

394
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 3: which I like because Texas is't gonna stop scoring. I

395
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,720
Speaker 3: don't see how Oklahoma States stops them. I would like

396
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,479
Speaker 3: the game over fast track here, but I'm afraid Oklahoma

397
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 3: State's is gonna get shut down because if they just

398
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 3: take away Ali Gordon. What's Oklahoma State's recourse, I don't know.

399
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:19,440
Speaker 3: So line is pretty sharp, but I don't necessarily know

400
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 3: if it's fully adjusted for the fact that Texas will

401
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 3: just keep playing until the end. Totals have passed. For me,

402
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 3: just because I'm worried about the Oklahoma State offense, I

403
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 3: might join you on that Texas team total over. That

404
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:30,879
Speaker 3: might be the best bet in this game. What do

405
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:32,240
Speaker 3: you see here in the Big twelve title.

406
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 2: Well, first off, I think everybody that listens should either

407
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 2: has or should have a Texas ticket in their back pocket.

408
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 3: Yes, I have that to not hedging obviously.

409
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, congrats everybody on. I don't know CLV because we

410
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 2: haven't won yet. We'll party after this.

411
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 3: I'm not hedging, and I'm not even looking in the middle.

412
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 2: I'm not hedging. I'm not middling. I am you know what,

413
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 2: I'll be in Vegas. It'll be nine am when this

414
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,679
Speaker 2: thing kicks. I'm gonna have some food delivered to the

415
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:58,719
Speaker 2: room and I'm just gonna enjoy my coffee.

416
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 3: But noos for Texas.

417
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 2: It's yeah, I mean, we're gonna have some fun here.

418
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:07,760
Speaker 2: The entire offensive identity revolves around Olli Gordon for Oklahoma State.

419
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 2: You know, you have to remember what Gundhi said at

420
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,399
Speaker 2: media days is we're leaving behind the zone blocking schemes

421
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 2: and we're going to man blocking. It didn't click until

422
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,120
Speaker 2: middle of the season, and that's when Oli Gordon really

423
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 2: took off. The problem is, like you mentioned, Oklahoma State

424
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 2: really falls off in passing downs that there one hundred

425
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 2: and nineteenth and EPA when they get behind the chains.

426
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 2: That's bad. Bowman neglected to throw a touchdown in three

427
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 2: of his last four games. He's going in the opposite direction.

428
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 2: The team is going in the opposite direction. The Texas

429
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 2: front seven has dominated everybody that runs man blocking schemes,

430
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:43,239
Speaker 2: counter schemes, any run concept that Oklahoma State has been

431
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 2: using with Oli Gordon, Texas absolutely dominates. So finishing drives

432
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 2: continues to be a real problem for Texas. You saw

433
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 2: that against Texas Tech. I don't think it's going to

434
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,159
Speaker 2: be a problem here. The Pokes allowed at least thirty

435
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 2: points in recent weeks to BYU Houston and Central Floor.

436
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 2: What are we talking about here? You don't need to

437
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,159
Speaker 2: go to the Collegeable playoffs if you can't score at

438
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 2: least with by Houston and UCF for scoring. So yes,

439
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,919
Speaker 2: give me Texas on the team total over. Since this

440
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 2: game is at eleven am kickoff time local and the

441
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 2: a SEC Championship game is until later, Sark needs all

442
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 2: the style points he can get. Let's ride of Texas

443
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 2: team total over. Love it.

444
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 3: Agree with you there? I I think we're going to

445
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 3: disagree on this game, Max, just so the you're going

446
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 3: against the Bacmaster. By the way, here Toledo eight point

447
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,919
Speaker 3: favorite here over under forty four. This game will be

448
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 3: played noon Eastern ESPN. The only Group of five conference

449
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 3: championship that's not played on a campus site, this one's

450
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 3: played in Detroit. I think since like two thousand and three.

451
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:58,360
Speaker 3: With a win, Toledo would get its fifth and second consecutive,

452
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 3: a fifth overall machampionship, which would match Marshall and Northern

453
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 3: Illinois for the most ever. If Mina Ohio pulls off

454
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 3: the upset, they would get their fourth, tying Toledo for second.

455
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 3: These two teams, for what it's worth, played earlier this season.

456
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 3: Toledo won twenty one to seventeen at Mina Ohio, but

457
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 3: Brett Gabbert was the quarterback for Miami Ohio in that game.

458
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 3: I do have a mind Ohio eight to one future

459
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:33,119
Speaker 3: from the preseason MAC manifesto. I will be hedging that

460
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 3: a bit, just because so much has changed with Mine Ohio.

461
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 3: It's really unfortunate. I've never engaged Javu. I have a

462
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:46,199
Speaker 3: team with a really good defense and a quarterback I

463
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 3: loved who got hurt and now so to play Toledo

464
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,199
Speaker 3: without their quarterback in the MAC Championship just like my

465
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 3: Ohio future last year, and that was twenty twenty five

466
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:57,639
Speaker 3: to one too, So I'm complete deja vu here, but

467
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 3: I will be hedging some still deciding on that. Keep

468
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 3: an eye on the Action NETWORKAP just to give you

469
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 3: a high level profile of both teams. Both these teams

470
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 3: are really similar and that just how they're constructed. Toledo's offense,

471
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 3: Daikwon Finn, runs RPO based scheme. All five offensive linemen

472
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 3: have started every game. Everything runs through Penny Boone, who

473
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 3: averaged I think seven point four yards per carry, which

474
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 3: was number one among all backs, but at least one

475
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 3: hundred carries this year. Maya Ohio, on the other hand,

476
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 3: they're also run heavy offense, RPO based with Avion Smith,

477
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 3: who took over for Gabert about hurt midway through the season.

478
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 3: Not a polished passer, more of a mobile guy. Their

479
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 3: top twenty five rush rate but their bottom ten rush

480
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 3: success rate. They can't really run it well, can't do

481
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 3: much well. We'll just try to grind out the game

482
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:42,959
Speaker 3: and they rely on their defense and special teams. Their

483
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 3: offensive line also has some weak areas. They lost their

484
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 3: also their start tight end earlier the season for the

485
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 3: season Jack cold Iron. They obviously lost Gabbert, who I

486
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 3: think was the best quarterback in the conference, and then

487
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 3: their number one receiver, Southeast Louisiana transfer Gage Larbading, but

488
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 3: he's missed the lesting against the Hampshire and are questionable,

489
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 3: so they could be about their three offensive players coming

490
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 3: into the season. So both offenses designed pretty similarly. It

491
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 3: neither gives up exposive plays either Taledo a little bit

492
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 3: more talented and the more talented quarterback, although Finn still

493
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 3: puts the ball in harm's way a little too often

494
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 3: for my liking. Two of the best group of five

495
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 3: defenses in the country. I actually have my own number one,

496
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 3: but they're both like close to top forty nationally for me.

497
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 3: They both never miss tackles you can in an explosives

498
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 3: and then if you do get down the field, they're

499
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 3: both really good in finishing drives on defense, so they

500
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:36,959
Speaker 3: both blow up so mayas Ohio. I don't see them

501
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 3: having much success moving the ball one hundred and thirtieth

502
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 3: first snail seconds per play. They want to grind the

503
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 3: game down to a halt, and I don't see either

504
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 3: team getting tons with a lot of touchdowns. It's my

505
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 3: favorite bet in this game is the under. I know

506
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:50,719
Speaker 3: it's come down a little bit, I still like it.

507
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 3: I think this game plays out similarly to last year

508
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 3: same I just mentioned it. Toledo with a great d

509
00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 3: Finn quarterback, same offense, going up against a team that

510
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 3: didn't have their quarterback, with a limited offense and a

511
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,160
Speaker 3: more mobile quarterback. What ind Taleda do in that game?

512
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:07,879
Speaker 3: They just said, we know we can win this with

513
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,719
Speaker 3: their defense. They ran it forty seven times. I believe

514
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 3: only threw at twenty five one hundred and fifty yards.

515
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 3: Said we're not going to turn it over lin on

516
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,639
Speaker 3: our defense. They won seventeen to seven, So I know

517
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 3: this is on a fast track. Ford Field. I adjusted

518
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 3: up to total like one and a half points, but

519
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 3: I still really love the under. Either team is going

520
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 3: to struggle to get to more than twenty one points.

521
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 3: Before I make a quick case for Miao Ohio, what

522
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 3: is your case for Toledo?

523
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 2: Guy ruckets in fight This Miami of Ohio offense is

524
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 2: not going to get as many first downs, They're not

525
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 2: going to be as successful, They're not going to be

526
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 2: as efficient as Toledo as as daikwon fin and Penny Boon.

527
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 2: Now Toledo has the ability through Daykuon Finn to have

528
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 2: four to six turnovers and make themselves look like they

529
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 2: belong in a pod with Northern Illinois. Can't wait for

530
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 2: no divisions next year.

531
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 3: But that's why I think they're not even going to

532
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 3: be that aggressive. They're going to say, we know we

533
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:59,959
Speaker 3: can shut my Ohio down run the ball. That's why

534
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:00,959
Speaker 3: one of the reasons I like the under I think

535
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:03,159
Speaker 3: they're gonna have a similar game planned last year when

536
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 3: they won seventeen to seven.

537
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:06,439
Speaker 2: You know, Miami's been horrific at running the ball. They

538
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 2: have the thirtieth highest rate of passing downs on offense

539
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,640
Speaker 2: outside of first and ten, second and seven, third and four.

540
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 2: They are terrible when they get behind the chains. So

541
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,639
Speaker 2: to me, that is what screams that the Toledo offense

542
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 2: has a much better chance of moving the ball and

543
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 2: getting into scoring position than Miami Ohio does, and Toledo's

544
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,120
Speaker 2: offense should take advantage of. But Miamo Ohio defense, they

545
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 2: just can't stop the stop the run at the point

546
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:30,640
Speaker 2: of attack on the line. Miama Ohio's ninety third line

547
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:32,479
Speaker 2: yards and they're one hundred and twenty first and stuff right,

548
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,719
Speaker 2: Penny Boone ought to eat that up. You know, I

549
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 2: saw a seven flash at one of my books, grabbed

550
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 2: it there. I still played at seven a half eight.

551
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 2: If you want to parlay this, that's fine, But I'm

552
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 2: in on Toledo here. Yeah.

553
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 3: Like I said, I agree with you. I think they

554
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 3: should get a push up front. But one part of

555
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 3: the anticap is fin could turn it over here and

556
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 3: he's probably due for one or two. Also coaching eventage

557
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 3: for myam Ohio, I also like the under which a lot,

558
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 3: which makes this number more valuable with the underdog. And

559
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 3: by the way, MAC Conference underdogs and one against the

560
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 3: spread seventy one percent since two thousand and five.

561
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 2: You go be kidding me. Now, this is peak It

562
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 2: is peak maction.

563
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 3: So why is my Ohio and in this game? How

564
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 3: are they nine and three against the spread? Maya Ohio

565
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 3: will win every intangible, every possible non offensive or defensive

566
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 3: factor in this game. Let's go through them. Number one

567
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 3: coaching just mentioned that thought of an advantage there. Special teams.

568
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 3: My Ohio has my number one rated special teams in

569
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 3: the country. They're number two in net punting. They have

570
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 3: the best punt returner top ten nation. They have a

571
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 3: kicker who's automatic, hasn't missed a field goal all year,

572
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 3: seven to seven over forty yards. By the way, Toledo

573
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 3: outside the top hundred net punting, outside the top hundred

574
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 3: punt return yardage, less reliable kicker. They know they're not

575
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 3: gonna go for and four that they're gonna play the

576
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 3: super conservative run the clock punt. It rely on their defense,

577
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 3: make field goals. That's their path here. Try to win

578
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 3: this game seventeen thirteen. They're also never penalized, top ten

579
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 3: of the nation of penalties. Guess where Toledo is outside

580
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 3: the top one hundred so penalties, coaching, special teams, all

581
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 3: of the intangibles. Despite a completely limited offense, they've been

582
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 3: able to cover games, and that's why they've always are

583
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 3: undervalued in the market. I do think Toledo wins, but

584
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 3: I think they can ugly this game up and with

585
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 3: all those other peripherals, I think they keep this close.

586
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 3: I'm gonna call it seventeen to thirteen final Toledo wins.

587
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 3: That's my take. Good stuff on the MAC. Always good

588
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 3: to get two sides when we disagree, because ultimately that's

589
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 3: what we want this podcast to be for leaning one way,

590
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 3: present both cases, and help you make your decision one

591
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:56,479
Speaker 3: way or the other. Let's go out in west Boise

592
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 3: State two and a half point favorite here in Vegas

593
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 3: against you NLV total fifty nine. I'm having a really

594
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 3: this is the hardest game for me of so I

595
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 3: look to you for some guidance. Boise State obviously has

596
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 3: rallied around their interim coach, and for what it's worth,

597
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 3: we've only seen one other team in the conference championship

598
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 3: that I found over the past thirty years with an

599
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 3: interim coach that was in the conference championship. I mean,

600
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 3: usually you fire a coach, you're not going to get

601
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 3: to the conference championship. But Boisees they did. Happened with

602
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 3: Clay Helton in twenty fifteen. Does that sark maybe the

603
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 3: guy that took over for I forget, But USC got

604
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 3: to the conference championship with Helton and then they lost

605
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 3: to Stanford, So pretty rare that this happens. Bois Stable

606
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 3: have fans here too, I know. I got Bja Rains

607
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 3: organized a huge bus. There'll be a bunch of buses

608
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 3: and people traveling down this This crowd probably fifty to fifty,

609
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 3: so maybe not, maybe not a true home field advantage.

610
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 3: And Boises is definitely trending up. They're now healthier too,

611
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 3: it's like no injuries. To note, they did lose their

612
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,479
Speaker 3: top receiver. They didn't let back on the team. They

613
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 3: was a team vote. They can't really throw the ball.

614
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 3: And Maddox Mattson, who was playing quarterbacks putting time with

615
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 3: Taylor Green. He's out, but Green will be the starting quarterback.

616
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 3: Most importantly, Ashton Genty fully healthy. I think he's one

617
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 3: of the best running backs county. And George Hallane, he's

618
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 3: running mate, is now back fully healthy, dangerous rushing attack.

619
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 3: So and you could tell all the quotes all the

620
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 3: people that I know associated with the Boise program, they

621
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 3: said his team cares and they've rallied around the firing

622
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 3: of Abolis. I don't think that he was really well liked.

623
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 3: But what gives me pause here with Boise is I've

624
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 3: confirmed all that and I can see it. But they

625
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 3: beat New Mexico with a backup quarterback, Utah State with

626
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 3: a pair of backup quarterbacks, and air Force with its

627
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 3: third string quarterback. So how much weight can I put

628
00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 3: into when you look at this matchup. Secondaries are vulnerable.

629
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 3: But I do trust the UNLB passing offense more with

630
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 3: Ricky White, and you want to attack the UNOB secondary,

631
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 3: but that's not really Boise state. Their passing offense isn't great.

632
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 3: I also think both offenses are going to give up

633
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 3: a ton of explosives, which leads me to the over

634
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:24,719
Speaker 3: on a fast track. But I'm just having a I'm

635
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 3: having a really tough time deciding how much I should

636
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 3: buy into Boise because I know that it's true. I

637
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 3: know they've rallied, but they played three dumpsters with backup quarterbacks.

638
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 3: So what do you see here between Boise and UNLV.

639
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 2: I like Boise, and I like that over here. I'll

640
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 2: start with Boise's offense. I mean, you know, fired Andy Avolos,

641
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 2: They've got an interium coach. It's interviewing to be the

642
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 2: head coach. So at least there's a minimal amount of

643
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 2: noise compared to the UNLV side, which I'll get to

644
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 2: in a little bit. But the question is is can

645
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 2: Boise respond with Taylor Green back under center and win

646
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 2: a conference championship. Green went for two hundred twenty eight

647
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 2: yards pass he logged two turnover worth. He plays against

648
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 2: Air Force of week thirteen, So it looks like it's

649
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 2: the same old Taylor Green trying to run Bush Hampden's offense,

650
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:11,320
Speaker 2: which hasn't worked since Hamden was promoted to hire his

651
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator. But boys, he is top ten and rushing

652
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:17,319
Speaker 2: success right through Ashton Genty and George Laney. Those two

653
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 2: being healthy are the biggest difference in this game. And

654
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 2: you can look at UNLV's you know, rushing success on defense.

655
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 2: You can look at their line yards it's you know,

656
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 2: just inside the midpoint of FBS defenses. But really what

657
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,839
Speaker 2: this comes down to is the fact that Genty has

658
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 2: forty one targets on this season. They're all wheel routes

659
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:39,359
Speaker 2: and bubble screens, screens, left screens, right lined up out

660
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 2: and flats. It doesn't matter. They find ways to get

661
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 2: him the ball behind the line of scrimmage, through the air,

662
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 2: and it just completely tears defenses up. That is how

663
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:51,760
Speaker 2: you attack the UNLV secondary. They are horrific in tackling,

664
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,959
Speaker 2: they are horrific in playing coverage, and that is where

665
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,320
Speaker 2: exactly I mean Ashton Genty is the best player in

666
00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 2: this game. George Halane isn't too far behind. I don't

667
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 2: see any stop in Boise, who's top twenty five and

668
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 2: creating a big play. They're fortieth and about finishing drives

669
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 2: and quality drives. So I see all those things working

670
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 2: out here for them, especially on the ground with lineyards,

671
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to dominate the line of scrimmage.

672
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 2: Now when you go to the other side, I like

673
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,359
Speaker 2: the over because U and LV can do a lot

674
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 2: of the same stuff. Now, Brennan Marion is being interviewed

675
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 2: for other jobs. He interviewed for the San Diego State job.

676
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:26,359
Speaker 2: Barry otom is interviewing for other jobs. Some Power five

677
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 2: teams are looking for him. So there's a lot more

678
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 2: noise going on with the coaching staff. Believe it or not,

679
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 2: I know there's an interorim on Boise side, but there

680
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,320
Speaker 2: is more noise going on with UNLV.

681
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 3: Now.

682
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 2: The go go offense that Marion runs is beautiful. Teams

683
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 2: are forced to load the box against twelve twenty one

684
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 2: twenty two personnel, where formations are always trying to get

685
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 2: at least three players in the backfield with the quarterback.

686
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 2: Now they did switch to quarterback Jade Mayeva. He took

687
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 2: over his starter in Week four against UTEP and he

688
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 2: has a pretty even distribution of scramble yards versus designed

689
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 2: yards when he has rushing attempts. But his passing isn't

690
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 2: his good, as the TD to I in t ratio

691
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 2: would suggest. He actually has more turnover worthy plays than

692
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 2: big time throws. And the biggest issue for Boise why

693
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,840
Speaker 2: I love the over in this game throughout the entire season,

694
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 2: They're tackling has been terrible. Of course, you fired Andy

695
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:18,360
Speaker 2: Avilo's former defensive coordinator for Oregon, and it Boise finally

696
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 2: the head coach one hundred and thirtieth and tackling per pff.

697
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 2: If you go and look at how many broken tackles allowed,

698
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 2: they're one hundred and sixteenth. I expect explosives from UNLV

699
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 2: against the defense it's top eighty and EPA allowed. Yeah.

700
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 2: The problem is I think the UNLV defense is worse,

701
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 2: and I think Ashton Genty is the better, is the

702
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 2: best player in this game by far. Both quarterbacks, I

703
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 2: kind of make it a wash. Both of them create

704
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:48,280
Speaker 2: too many mistakes more than they do big time throws.

705
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:50,839
Speaker 2: So if you wash it all, you know, put all

706
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 2: that in together with these two offenses. Ashon Genty is

707
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 2: the best player, and they've got a way to get

708
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,279
Speaker 2: into the UFV secondary and that's what's going to get

709
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 2: them to win. I think it goes back and forth.

710
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,360
Speaker 2: It's a great live betting game, but Over is definitely

711
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 2: the play and Boise he's the team I'm on.

712
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to the SEC Championship between

713
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 3: Georgia and Alabama.

714
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 4: Here it just means more.

715
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 3: High stakes here. Georgia wins, they're in. They lose, could

716
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 3: be out. Alabama wins.

717
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 2: Say it there in, Come on, they're in. I don't

718
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:28,799
Speaker 2: know how, but they're in.

719
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 3: Five and a half point underdogs, total sitting around fifty five.

720
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,280
Speaker 3: There's some injuries. McClellan, the running back for Alabama probably

721
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 3: will miss you the scene on crutches, Georgia Dowers banged up,

722
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 3: the conkey banged up with ankles, and then two key

723
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 3: injuries on the defensive end for Georgia, Humphrey at corner

724
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 3: and Dumus Johnson inside linebacker. I'll make I think this

725
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 3: Lin's about right. So I made it like Georgia of

726
00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 3: minus five. So I have nothing for the side perspective.

727
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:03,879
Speaker 3: I could see case for both I'll make a quick case.

728
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 3: I'm on an island here on the under. Try to

729
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 3: get fifty five or better. But here's how I see

730
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 3: it playing out now. The scary thing is it's a

731
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 3: fast track and you get all these s. We talk

732
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:16,800
Speaker 3: about this every year, all these SEC athletes over go

733
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:18,840
Speaker 3: back and look at the scores. The overs gone thirteen

734
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 3: to four and one since two thousand and five, the

735
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:27,360
Speaker 3: best over at any conference by far. But I have

736
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 3: adjusted it up for the fast track. But I still

737
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 3: like the under. Here's why. First off, I the Alabama

738
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:40,760
Speaker 3: offense is so predicated on getting explosive plays with Milroe.

739
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 3: They don't really think it's not gonna have a ton

740
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 3: of success throwing the intermedia rage, which is where you

741
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 3: need to attack the quarters coverage of Georgia. They asked,

742
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 3: Milroe is an insane deep ball thrower. Guess what. George's

743
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 3: pass defense doesn't give any explosives for To put numbers

744
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 3: behind it, Alabama seventh best offense and passing down explode sidness.

745
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 3: Georgia's defense is number nine. So the quest how I

746
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 3: think Georgia Georgia could be run on a little bit

747
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 3: and the key, the key to this game is Nowhere's legs,

748
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 3: by the way, I think they gotta on leash in

749
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 3: rushing crops on Milroe I think are in play here

750
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 3: because the problem there You think the sacks count against it,

751
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 3: but Georgia doesn't get a ton of sacks so and

752
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 3: and Milroe and the offensive line have been better of late,

753
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 3: so I think there's gonna be some value of Milroe

754
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 3: rushing this. You got on leasha here, and that's the

755
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 3: path to success. And mobile quarterbacks have had some success

756
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 3: against Georgia. But I think Alabama's gonna come out and

757
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 3: they're gonna try to run the ball every which way,

758
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 3: whether it's Williams, because I don't thin mcloughon's gonna play

759
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 3: a lot of mill Row. And I don't think they're

760
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 3: gonna have much sucess throwing the ball because they just

761
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 3: they don't really throw it intermedia I and George doesn't

762
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 3: give up any explosives. And Alabama, by the way, plays slow,

763
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 3: and when the stake has been higher, they played even slower.

764
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 3: Even last year they were trailing. You're playing slow, So

765
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 3: I think gonna be a super slow paced game, both

766
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 3: teams feeling each other out early, and then the other

767
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 3: side Georgie is a snail. And I know the Georgia

768
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 3: offense has been rolling, but you know, some injuries. But

769
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 3: most importantly, this is the by far, the best defense

770
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 3: they will face all year. Can we talk about the

771
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 3: Georgia's schedule of opposing defenses that they played. Let's go

772
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 3: through a ball state when they sucked South Carolina and

773
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 3: it's still ball state. South Carolina awful, UAB worse than

774
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:41,280
Speaker 3: the country, Auburn awful, Kentucky awful, Vandy awful, Florida awful, Missouri.

775
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 3: There's a good defense that they faced. And you know,

776
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 3: they got the thirty points at home and after it

777
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 3: was a close game throughout Ole, miss Dad, Tennessee not great.

778
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:02,360
Speaker 3: Georgia tech horrendous. This is a huge step up in

779
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 3: class so and the same thing could be said for Alabama,

780
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 3: by the way, you know they if you look at

781
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 3: their schedule, what defense is that? I mean the last

782
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 3: five Everyone's like, oh, the Milro's back, he's started the

783
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 3: last five, you know, the last three weeks when they've

784
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:18,919
Speaker 3: averaged like fifty points the last four weeks they played

785
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 3: LSU are gonna be the worst defense in the country.

786
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 3: Kentucky horrendous, pass dy Chattanooga and Auburn and they barely

787
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:31,879
Speaker 3: got the twenty sex so like they just haven't played

788
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,800
Speaker 3: many great defenses. I mean, yeah, I think Texas is

789
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 3: a great defense and we all and Nolabama only put

790
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 3: up twenty four and lost by double digits at home.

791
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:43,799
Speaker 3: So I think the defenses are in a slow paced game,

792
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:47,359
Speaker 3: are going to rule things in this game. I think

793
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,880
Speaker 3: that both offenses are going to play slower, rely more

794
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:51,840
Speaker 3: on the run game. It's going to be a slow start,

795
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 3: slow pace, and I think this will end like twenty

796
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 3: seven in twenty three, twenty seven to twenty four, somewhere

797
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 3: in that neighborhood. So I like the under. We'll look

798
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 3: at some Milroe over rushing props. I think it's a

799
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 3: good matchup for both defenses, and it's a big step

800
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 3: up a class for each, A lot of familiarity here,

801
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 3: a lot on the line. So I think you get

802
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 3: a slow start too. What do you see here?

803
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 2: I can completely understand why you think the under is

804
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 2: the player, because I must have researched this thing for hours.

805
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 2: I could not find an offensive advantage for either. Right,

806
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 2: Georgia is the leader, an offensive momentum killer I'm sorry.

807
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,759
Speaker 2: They're third and offensive momentum killer in the nation, just

808
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 2: a head of Michigan and Oregon. You know, it looks

809
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 2: at interception fumbles, miss field goals, sacks, fourth downs. What

810
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 2: does your offense do to make mistakes and stop themselves?

811
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 2: Georgia doesn't do much of that. That also kind of

812
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 2: coincides with Carson Beck, you know, really kind of growing

813
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 2: into the role, getting Glad McConkie healthy, getting Brock Bauers

814
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 2: back in the offense, they became unstoppable. If those two

815
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 2: aren't playing, then you're losing two of the biggest pieces

816
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 2: that he's had to use to get Georgia up to

817
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,439
Speaker 2: this point against the strength of schedule that is fifty ninth.

818
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 2: Georgia dominates rushing attempts with inside and outside zone, but

819
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 2: Alabama dominates those on defense like that, There's just there's

820
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 2: no run concept. I'm not going to go like side

821
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 2: to side here. There's no run concept that either of

822
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 2: these teams run that the other defense cannot stop. The

823
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 2: only concept that's given the Crimson Tide trouble is power.

824
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 2: George's only ran power thirty times this year, So I

825
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 2: just do not see an advantage on the ground whatsoever.

826
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:27,359
Speaker 2: You know you go to the other side of the ball.

827
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:28,959
Speaker 2: Is the Georgia defense going to be able to stop

828
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 2: a mobile quarterback like Jalen Milroe because they've had problems

829
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 2: with quarterbacks that we didn't consider to be dual threat.

830
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 2: You know, beautiful deep ball by Milroe. We've talked about

831
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 2: a million times, twenty three big time throws, zero turnover

832
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 2: worthy plays on throws that go over twenty yards of

833
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 2: fifteen to one TD to I T ratio. It's beautiful.

834
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 2: The problem is George's only allowed three passes over forty

835
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 2: yards this entire season. No one's getting there. So I

836
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 2: think if you go back and look historically at this game,

837
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 2: four previous times and Nick Saban have met in the

838
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 2: either the SEC title game or the National Title game.

839
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 2: In the first quarter of all four of those games,

840
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 2: there's been to combine thirteen points. Like when Stuckey and

841
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 2: I sit there and say, like we think they're going

842
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 2: to fill each other out. We think there's a script.

843
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 2: It's not that we think we know, and this is

844
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:21,439
Speaker 2: a perfect example of it. Thirteen points in four first

845
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:26,439
Speaker 2: quarters of SEC title and National Title I bet first

846
00:44:26,520 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 2: quarter under ten and a half. I did take a

847
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:30,360
Speaker 2: full game over because I didn't know lad McConkie and

848
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 2: Brockbors requestionable. This is going to be a dry SEC

849
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 2: championship for the first quarter and then somewhere in the

850
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 2: second quarter the adjustments are going to come because these

851
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 2: are the two best coaching staffs in the nation of

852
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 2: making adjustments on the fly, and once they do, the

853
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 2: points will come. So whether you want to go first

854
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 2: quarter under, full game over, or first quarter under and

855
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 2: play a live over, you can do that too, but

856
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 2: I definitely think this is going to be just scrappy

857
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 2: and ugly for the first period.

858
00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,959
Speaker 3: Also, something else to get my two really good punting teams,

859
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 3: which would if the defenses are having success, would also help.

860
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 3: The under pace should be slowed too, which helps. I

861
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 3: might play some Milroe over rushing props. I think that

862
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:13,280
Speaker 3: they just unleash them there, especially with that without McClellan,

863
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 3: you don't have as much depth running back, and.

864
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 2: We know how much Milroe likes to run past the

865
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:18,919
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage and then throw a pass.

866
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 3: Yeah and yeah true. And Georgia doesn't get a ton

867
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 3: of sacks, so that helps with the rushing our props.

868
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:26,480
Speaker 3: So who do you think wins?

869
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:28,799
Speaker 2: I think it depends on lad McConkie and brought down.

870
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 3: Do you think wins?

871
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:29,719
Speaker 1: No?

872
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 2: No, depends Alabama.

873
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:35,120
Speaker 3: Wow, I'll say Georgia wins by a field goal. All right,

874
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:40,240
Speaker 3: all right, let's move on to the AC Championship between

875
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:46,400
Speaker 3: SMU and Twulane. This number has been moving around, so

876
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 3: let me check the updated number to lane three and

877
00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:51,759
Speaker 3: a half point favorite here over under the totals down

878
00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:54,720
Speaker 3: of forty seven. We played four pm Eastern on ABC

879
00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:59,280
Speaker 3: this uh so, the big news here is Preston Stone,

880
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:03,399
Speaker 3: SMU's start quarterbacks out for the year. Brooks leg last week.

881
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 3: Another future that I have where a quarterback gets hurt

882
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 3: when am I going to get get it? The other

883
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 3: way around? I have an SMU future. I'm not hedging it.

884
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 3: I would have made SMU. SMU would have been my

885
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:16,880
Speaker 3: biggest beath this weekend. Lands two lane, I make them

886
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 3: a three and a half point favorite when both teams

887
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 3: are fully healthy at two lane, I made them a

888
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 3: three and a half point favorite. I think they're clearly

889
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 3: the better team. Then you have to adjust and there's

890
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 3: so much uncertainty now, so I can't make this a

891
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,480
Speaker 3: huge play and I have a future also on SMU.

892
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 3: I downgraded SMU because Kevin Jennings more mobile, more mobile

893
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 3: than Stone, but obviously much less experience. Wasn't a I

894
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 3: recruit does have some experience getting into games. I downgraded

895
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,480
Speaker 3: SMU four and a half points, so I'm at like

896
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 3: two lane, you know, minus one ish here even without Stone,

897
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 3: So I still would I'm probably still going to play

898
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:01,240
Speaker 3: SMU in some former fashion, and I'm not hedging my future.

899
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:05,479
Speaker 3: This SMU defense is real fourth and success rate, ninth

900
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:08,360
Speaker 3: and rush success rate. They've done a masterful job in

901
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 3: the portal the other side of the ball, really good

902
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:12,800
Speaker 3: running backs, really good offensive line, and they've got some

903
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 3: offensive line injuries. They've lost both tackles recently. Hasn't even mattered.

904
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:18,680
Speaker 3: We'll see if they're left tackles back this week. But

905
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 3: they can run the ball. They have uber talented backs.

906
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:25,440
Speaker 3: The big question is just the problem is you have

907
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 3: to attack two lane through the air. You can't really

908
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,800
Speaker 3: run on tulane. Their corners are really good, but you

909
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 3: can beat their safeties and there they lost two really

910
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 3: good safeties from last year and their linebackers in coverage.

911
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 3: Ken Jennings consistently beat two lane secondary. I don't know,

912
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:44,720
Speaker 3: so I can't recommend in good faith of bet on SMU.

913
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:49,719
Speaker 3: I'm also worried about the SMU special teams a ton.

914
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 3: They've allowed the most block kicks, the most block field

915
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:56,400
Speaker 3: goals in the country. Their punters bad bad, and Tulane

916
00:47:56,480 --> 00:47:58,879
Speaker 3: is the second best kick return in the country. Those

917
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 3: special teams when you have your a quarterback on the road,

918
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:03,879
Speaker 3: could be a problem. For what it's worth. Coming into

919
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:07,800
Speaker 3: the season, green wave ATM at home under Willie Fritz

920
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:11,760
Speaker 3: since twenty seventeen, twenty seven to eight against the spread,

921
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:13,839
Speaker 3: seventy seven percent at home coming into the year, However,

922
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 3: just two and five against the spread this year in

923
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:19,680
Speaker 3: Newman Stadium. I have a trouble building margin. Another factor here,

924
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 3: Willi Fritz distracted, probably gonna get another job. Is there

925
00:48:23,160 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 3: some distractions there? I don't know. I was super super

926
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 3: high on this SMU team, but that's what's stone a quarterback,

927
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 3: so much uncertainty. Now. I do believe in the d

928
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 3: I do believe in their backs, but this is a

929
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:39,240
Speaker 3: hard game to anddicap. I'm just I'm letting my future

930
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:40,839
Speaker 3: ride though. That'm like the only thing I have here.

931
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:42,040
Speaker 3: What do you see here in this game?

932
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think if you're gonna bet, probably want to

933
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:46,279
Speaker 2: bet an under, maybe a first half under. I mean

934
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 2: with Kevin Jennings lifetime thirty four or forty six, two

935
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 2: years at SMU, four tds, no I iNTS. But more importantly,

936
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,880
Speaker 2: he's only attempted to passes over twenty yards, didn't connect

937
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:56,640
Speaker 2: on either of them.

938
00:48:57,200 --> 00:48:58,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of that was just pure garbage time,

939
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 3: Like yeah, it's hard to really saying.

940
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 2: The other thing. The other variable to throw in this

941
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 2: is the two lane defensively is one hundred and thirty

942
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 2: second the nation on target rate. They allow everybody to

943
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 2: hit their band and stride. So if Kevin Jennings is

944
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:13,120
Speaker 2: going to have a game, you would think it would

945
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 2: be here. But it's the complete unknown in this you know,

946
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 2: first half under, full game under, and you're right, this

947
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 2: is it for Willly Fritz a TU lane. The decision

948
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:21,800
Speaker 2: on the athletic director is a big part of that.

949
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 2: He's going to be moving on. Could be the last

950
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:25,720
Speaker 2: game for Michael Pratt as well. I mean the portal

951
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,920
Speaker 2: is opened up this weekend and who knows. I mean

952
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 2: there's money to be had for quarterbacks, and Pratt certainly

953
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:33,840
Speaker 2: would deserve a little bit of a look on that.

954
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:36,759
Speaker 2: You're right on the SMU defense. I don't think any

955
00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:39,319
Speaker 2: of the two lane rushing stats are going to matter here.

956
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:42,600
Speaker 2: I mean, sixty percent of their plays are all rush.

957
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 2: McKay hughes three point seven yards after contact and he's

958
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 2: created sixty two missed tackles this season. That's a lot.

959
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 2: But those numbers are just not going to work on SMU.

960
00:49:51,080 --> 00:49:54,720
Speaker 2: They are excellent. SMU's defense is eleventh and broken tackles allowed.

961
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 2: They don't allow people to get away from them whatsoever.

962
00:49:57,360 --> 00:49:59,839
Speaker 2: So first half under ugly.

963
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really a shame. I was really looking forward

964
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:05,839
Speaker 3: to this game, just the range. I don't I don't

965
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 3: know enough about Jennings and like it wasn't a high recruit.

966
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 3: After the game, I'll probably have a better idea. The

967
00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 3: problem is you can't bet after the game. All right,

968
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 3: all right, let's move on to the Sun Belt Championship

969
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 3: between app State and Troy.

970
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 2: Don't let the latest come between you and the Belt.

971
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,440
Speaker 3: Troy will host this game four pm Eastern on ESPN.

972
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 3: App states one of the it could rain here. Keep

973
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:33,920
Speaker 3: an eye on the forecast. A lot of rain. First thing,

974
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:36,319
Speaker 3: I'll not game. It's a home game for Troy. Home

975
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 3: field and sun Belt worthless. Always overvalued home teams in

976
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 3: league play since two thousand and five. In the sun

977
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 3: Belt against the spread, worst return on investment by any lee.

978
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:51,320
Speaker 3: Even the Mac homefield is like I think over the

979
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:52,960
Speaker 3: past fifteen years, if you price it out, it's like

980
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 3: one point one points. There's almost no homefield advantage. So

981
00:50:57,560 --> 00:50:59,320
Speaker 3: I always like to look at road teams in the summer.

982
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:02,120
Speaker 3: I love Apps State here the app State defense. Good

983
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 3: cornerbacks they have. They got E. J. Jackson back in

984
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 3: the slot in week nine and he's been great. And

985
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:09,839
Speaker 3: they got which spent Thomas and Clark got out of there,

986
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 3: who are awful. You can run all over app State.

987
00:51:16,160 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 3: You know their past these really good due to Johnson

988
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 3: and Thunderberg at corner with some decent favors at safeties.

989
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 3: Good for coverage, but they're all the d backs undersized.

990
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 3: Their defensive line is undersized, so they're not great against

991
00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:34,960
Speaker 3: the run. You know, they have a couple guys who

992
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 3: can get pressure off the edge and Johnson and Fletcher,

993
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:40,279
Speaker 3: but the rundy's bad, although it's improved a little bit late.

994
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 3: It was poverty level and montes Kelly playing more nose

995
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 3: tackles helped a bit. This defense is just in general improved. Overall,

996
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:51,959
Speaker 3: allowed eighteen point two points per game in the past

997
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:55,439
Speaker 3: four against all Bowl teams. They allowed twenty eight point

998
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 3: eight in their first seven games against FPS teams. That's

999
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:03,240
Speaker 3: an provement of over ten points per game against FPS competition.

1000
00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:07,839
Speaker 3: They're still four fourth worst in line yards. But here's

1001
00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:10,719
Speaker 3: the thing, this is a great matchup prapp State. Toy

1002
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 3: can't really run it. The dal's a good runner, and

1003
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:17,360
Speaker 3: but the offensive line can't run block and you have

1004
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 3: a quarterback who never runs it, probably the worst running

1005
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:22,399
Speaker 3: quarterback in the country. So this is a really good

1006
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 3: match up. Troy EPA per run on offense one hundred

1007
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 3: and twentieth app State date one twenty seven toroy EPA

1008
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 3: per pass fifty fourth app State D forty six. Ideal

1009
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 3: matchup prap State, who's rolling. They've also had four losses

1010
00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:38,920
Speaker 3: by a touchdown or last three, three, three, six, and seven.

1011
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 3: They're not afraid of this stage, Like this is the

1012
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:43,719
Speaker 3: team that should have won Yoming. They should have won

1013
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:47,800
Speaker 3: at North Carolina. They went on the road and beat JMU.

1014
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 3: Undefeated JMU in Sunbell play app State their last four times,

1015
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 3: if they've been an underdog on the road, they won

1016
00:52:55,800 --> 00:52:59,319
Speaker 3: all four outright. They were double digit underdogs in each.

1017
00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 3: The app State offense, Noel, I don't think is playing

1018
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:04,879
Speaker 3: Aglar has been very good. He's kind of a gun

1019
00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:08,279
Speaker 3: slinger to deep wide receiver room. They lost two stud

1020
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 3: Tackles and Hodges and Hardy having a little bit of

1021
00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:13,800
Speaker 3: trouble replacing them. It's a little bit worried about that

1022
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 3: against the Troy defense. The Troy defense is really good,

1023
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:19,719
Speaker 3: solid secondary, they can get pressure. But I just think

1024
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 3: this is closer to These two teams are pretty close

1025
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:24,880
Speaker 3: to even based on the serge that we've seen from

1026
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 3: app State, and the Troy defense I think is a

1027
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 3: little worse than some people think from after last year.

1028
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:32,040
Speaker 3: They lost a couple important pieces. Still really good, still

1029
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:34,160
Speaker 3: one of the best group of five defenses, but they've

1030
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:37,160
Speaker 3: also played four backup quarterbacks, and I think this is

1031
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:39,360
Speaker 3: just a good matchup on paper because Troy is not

1032
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:41,600
Speaker 3: great at running the ball. You don't want to bet

1033
00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 3: app State against an elite rushing offense. That's not the

1034
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:50,319
Speaker 3: case here. I love app State plus six right now,

1035
00:53:51,040 --> 00:53:51,920
Speaker 3: I think they win this game.

1036
00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:16,880
Speaker 2: What undred percent agreements? I mean, I have been tapped

1037
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:19,000
Speaker 2: into this app State team all year. I showed up

1038
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:22,279
Speaker 2: on BBOC Live on Saturdays, once with a ULM bet

1039
00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 2: and once with a Southern mis bet, both cashing because

1040
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:26,800
Speaker 2: they were going up against app State. Really hit a

1041
00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 2: loll in the middle of the schedule, just could not

1042
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:30,960
Speaker 2: defend the rush whatsoever. You're right, it has gotten a

1043
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:34,280
Speaker 2: little bit better now. But now they're hot. Five straight wins,

1044
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 2: four straight covers against Bowl teams including James Madison, And

1045
00:54:37,719 --> 00:54:39,840
Speaker 2: when they went up against James Madison, they dominated in

1046
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:44,240
Speaker 2: scoring opportunities. Quarterback Joey Aguilar had nine passes over fifteen yards.

1047
00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:47,160
Speaker 2: This was not the same team that was around six

1048
00:54:47,200 --> 00:54:47,800
Speaker 2: weeks ago.

1049
00:55:00,239 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 3: That line.

1050
00:55:02,040 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 2: So since Week seven against Coastal Aguilar is twenty one

1051
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:07,400
Speaker 2: to four TD to iron T. But he did have

1052
00:55:07,520 --> 00:55:10,279
Speaker 2: massive mistakes against Old Dominion and Southern Myths. Like I said,

1053
00:55:10,400 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 2: so you know.

1054
00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:12,680
Speaker 3: There, he's a bit of a gun slinger.

1055
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:15,840
Speaker 2: He is, And I went deep into like what is it,

1056
00:55:15,960 --> 00:55:18,560
Speaker 2: does it did Old Dominion and did they show something

1057
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:20,799
Speaker 2: that really got him or Southern miss They both run

1058
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:23,600
Speaker 2: quarters Cover three, Cover one, and really what I found

1059
00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 2: out is it was man. Southern Miss runs forty two

1060
00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 2: of man coverage. Old Minion ran a whole bunch of man.

1061
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 2: They're about thirty percent on the ear but they ran

1062
00:55:32,320 --> 00:55:35,839
Speaker 2: man coverage against Aguilar turn over to Troy. They never

1063
00:55:35,920 --> 00:55:36,680
Speaker 2: play man coverage.

1064
00:55:36,719 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 5: O Man.

1065
00:55:37,120 --> 00:55:39,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's a gun slinger and man coverage just burned him.

1066
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:41,160
Speaker 2: But he's not going to see that here. So that's

1067
00:55:41,640 --> 00:55:43,480
Speaker 2: one reason why I like them. Now I have full

1068
00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:45,279
Speaker 2: confidence at app State he's going to score the points

1069
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 2: that they need on offense to make this a game.

1070
00:55:47,360 --> 00:55:48,000
Speaker 3: When you flip to the.

1071
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:50,000
Speaker 2: Other side of the ball, it's I mean, try to

1072
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:52,520
Speaker 2: make a case for Troy. It's hard. But the one

1073
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:54,439
Speaker 2: that I keyed in on is app States twenty second

1074
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 2: and creating havoc that all comes from tackles for a

1075
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:59,000
Speaker 2: awesome pass breakups. So they're top thirty in both. Give

1076
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 2: me app State here, I'll take the points all day.

1077
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:07,200
Speaker 3: Love it, YEP. Full agreements, building our homes upon a.

1078
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:13,720
Speaker 5: Speaking the language of the gray, telling the world about

1079
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 5: a new days.

1080
00:56:16,239 --> 00:56:29,879
Speaker 3: Bet on that time, let's move on to the two

1081
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 3: primetime games. Next year we will have better Prime as

1082
00:56:35,040 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 3: I promise, because it won't be the big time West

1083
00:56:36,719 --> 00:56:38,279
Speaker 3: in it and we won't have back up quarterback in

1084
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:40,440
Speaker 3: Florida State. Which one do you want to start with?

1085
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 2: Let's start with Louisville, Florida State.

1086
00:56:43,800 --> 00:56:46,880
Speaker 3: Louisville, Florida State. Okay, so Florida State two and a

1087
00:56:46,880 --> 00:56:48,960
Speaker 3: half point favorite here. Let's be a PM Eastern ABC

1088
00:56:49,360 --> 00:56:51,480
Speaker 3: in Charlotte. Could be rained in the forecast a lot

1089
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:55,240
Speaker 3: of rain, so keep an eye on that. Over unders

1090
00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:57,840
Speaker 3: come down on this game a bit as you'd expect.

1091
00:56:59,239 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 3: So again, and this is the game, it's tough to

1092
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:04,840
Speaker 3: handicap because there's a backup quarterback with Florida State. And

1093
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:07,600
Speaker 3: now look to Florida State. Run rushing attacks not as

1094
00:57:07,640 --> 00:57:09,920
Speaker 3: good as last year. Outside the top eighty and success

1095
00:57:10,040 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 3: rate they are. They hit explosives top ten and explosives,

1096
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:14,800
Speaker 3: but there's not been a lot of offensive line continuity.

1097
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:17,680
Speaker 3: They're constantly changing guys. Last year the last week, you know,

1098
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 3: let's go with the more the better run blocker guard

1099
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:23,000
Speaker 3: move that you know, tackles have been hurt rotating guards

1100
00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:25,240
Speaker 3: and they lose a ton of EPA in the run

1101
00:57:25,320 --> 00:57:29,360
Speaker 3: game without Travis, just a ton and built Louisville's to

1102
00:57:29,760 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 3: top twenty rush success rate. Allow, maybe you get a

1103
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:35,160
Speaker 3: couple explosives, but now you don't have Travis. What can

1104
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:37,840
Speaker 3: Radamaker do well. I'll tell you. I told you last

1105
00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:39,920
Speaker 3: week I had an eight point drop off after what

1106
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:42,800
Speaker 3: I saw last weekend. It's not ten. I think road

1107
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:45,280
Speaker 3: to Maker stinks. And by the way, people are like, ah,

1108
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:47,560
Speaker 3: he came back and he beat Florida on the road.

1109
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:51,120
Speaker 3: Guess what. Florida also had a backup quarterback. Can we

1110
00:57:51,520 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 3: stop with that narrative? Florida had a ton of injuries.

1111
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:56,480
Speaker 3: And by the way, Florida's defense.

1112
00:57:56,600 --> 00:57:59,760
Speaker 2: Blows Arkansas one on that field.

1113
00:58:00,880 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean they are horrendous. The team that's been

1114
00:58:04,640 --> 00:58:06,400
Speaker 3: routinely be good up four and and fifty yards forty

1115
00:58:06,440 --> 00:58:09,840
Speaker 3: points every week. Florida State broke a run late. The

1116
00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 3: how many yards they finished within that game against that

1117
00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:15,080
Speaker 3: bad Florida defense that also had injuries. The total yards

1118
00:58:15,080 --> 00:58:18,400
Speaker 3: in that game Florida two thirty two Florida State two

1119
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:22,320
Speaker 3: twenty four. Rodamaker finished twelve of twenty five for one

1120
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty yards against the defense that ranks dead

1121
00:58:26,440 --> 00:58:30,200
Speaker 3: last and explosiveness allowed not good and Now it's gonna

1122
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:32,200
Speaker 3: be weather. You're going up against a good pass rush.

1123
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:35,640
Speaker 3: Louisville does have a really talented secondary. They they're aggressive,

1124
00:58:35,640 --> 00:58:38,400
Speaker 3: they can give up with some explosives. I didn't see anything.

1125
00:58:38,480 --> 00:58:40,280
Speaker 3: I know Rodamaker did it last year against the Loyally

1126
00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:42,320
Speaker 3: just threw it out to Johnny Wilson. I'm not sure

1127
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:44,880
Speaker 3: he's fully healthy right now. But phill is good corners.

1128
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:47,919
Speaker 3: Brownley should be back. The x FSU player, he should

1129
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:50,640
Speaker 3: be back in full. They can match up, they can

1130
00:58:50,680 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 3: get pressure. Bill's thirteenth worst and exposiveness allowed twelve on

1131
00:58:54,160 --> 00:58:56,280
Speaker 3: passing plays. That's how you beat them. Florida State is

1132
00:58:56,360 --> 00:58:58,880
Speaker 3: third and explosiveness, but there's no Jordan Travis. Now it's

1133
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:01,680
Speaker 3: Tate Roddamaker. It's gonna be weather. Louisville can load the

1134
00:59:01,720 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 3: box here. And by the way, this Florida State team,

1135
00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 3: which I talked about, how inconsistent they've been all year.

1136
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:09,040
Speaker 3: And by the way, Florida State penalty issues. They've got

1137
00:59:09,040 --> 00:59:11,400
Speaker 3: a ton of good fumble luck as well. My prediction

1138
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:12,920
Speaker 3: for this game, by the way, I like Louisville. I

1139
00:59:12,920 --> 00:59:15,439
Speaker 3: wanted I went three, got beat up early. I want three.

1140
00:59:15,640 --> 00:59:17,640
Speaker 3: I'll probably be in Louisville, and regardless in some form

1141
00:59:17,680 --> 00:59:19,760
Speaker 3: or fashion, I think Louisville wins this game. Will learn

1142
00:59:19,760 --> 00:59:21,680
Speaker 3: if there's football gods, because if there's football gods in

1143
00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:24,480
Speaker 3: Louisville will win this game. And we don't need to

1144
00:59:24,480 --> 00:59:26,240
Speaker 3: have Florida State, who I make seventeen and a half

1145
00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:28,520
Speaker 3: pin underdog against Georgia. But take a look at farda

1146
00:59:28,560 --> 00:59:30,240
Speaker 3: State schedule. I want you to answer me one question.

1147
00:59:30,640 --> 00:59:33,720
Speaker 3: Keep in mind, Riley Leonard got hurt for Duke and

1148
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:37,160
Speaker 3: Van Dyke didn't was hurt for Miami. Who's the most

1149
00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:39,680
Speaker 3: complete team offensive, defensive Florida State played.

1150
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:42,680
Speaker 2: This year offense and defense? He said, kicks.

1151
00:59:43,720 --> 00:59:48,000
Speaker 3: Defense one of the worst in the country. Clemson's offense horrendous.

1152
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:51,479
Speaker 3: The other game Southern Miss bc VA Tech.

1153
00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:54,080
Speaker 2: I mean, Virginia Tech's got some balance these days.

1154
00:59:54,280 --> 00:59:58,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, they didn't have a then Duke with Leonard hurt,

1155
00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:03,520
Speaker 3: pit Miami without Van Dyke, North Alabama, and then Florida

1156
01:00:03,800 --> 01:00:06,120
Speaker 3: with a bad and a backup quarterback. This is the

1157
01:00:06,160 --> 01:00:08,000
Speaker 3: most complete thing they will face all year, with a

1158
01:00:08,040 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 3: competent offense, competent defense. I think the ten point drop

1159
01:00:11,080 --> 01:00:14,120
Speaker 3: off I make Louisville a favor in this game. And

1160
01:00:14,320 --> 01:00:18,240
Speaker 3: I'm not even a huge Louisville guy, but I'll call

1161
01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:21,520
Speaker 3: it twenty one to seventeen. Is it's going to be late? Yeah,

1162
01:00:21,960 --> 01:00:27,120
Speaker 3: Radamaker stripped, strip, sacked, recovered game over, Louisville wins. So

1163
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:29,680
Speaker 3: lean under here, football guys do exist? What do you

1164
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:30,040
Speaker 3: see here?

1165
01:00:30,440 --> 01:00:32,680
Speaker 2: Yeah? I agree with your score prediction because I think

1166
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:34,760
Speaker 2: the under is the play here. If you split out

1167
01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 2: what tay Rodemaker did, I mean he didn't have a

1168
01:00:36,680 --> 01:00:39,120
Speaker 2: TD or an I int he went twelve to twenty

1169
01:00:39,160 --> 01:00:42,240
Speaker 2: five passing, but Johnny Wilson received nearly half of all

1170
01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:45,360
Speaker 2: the targets in that game. Keon Coleman had six targets

1171
01:00:45,400 --> 01:00:47,440
Speaker 2: but only caught one of them. None of them were drops.

1172
01:00:47,480 --> 01:00:50,120
Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on between Rodamaker and Keon Coleman.

1173
01:00:50,400 --> 01:00:53,160
Speaker 2: They cannot get connected whatsoever. If Florida State's outside the

1174
01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:55,880
Speaker 2: top one hundred and rushing success rate, lineyards stuff rate,

1175
01:00:56,320 --> 01:00:59,640
Speaker 2: so really that's it for the offense. The seminals have

1176
01:00:59,760 --> 01:01:02,560
Speaker 2: to Johnny Wilson or there's nothing left for tay Rodimaker.

1177
01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:03,960
Speaker 2: One thing that's in the back of my mind is

1178
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 2: that Florida State has been a great second half team.

1179
01:01:06,280 --> 01:01:07,960
Speaker 2: They're seven two and one against the spread in the

1180
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:10,560
Speaker 2: second half this year. Played that against Florida, they never

1181
01:01:10,640 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 2: looked back. I think Rodamaker finally got some identity as

1182
01:01:13,760 --> 01:01:15,320
Speaker 2: to what he wants to do with the offense and

1183
01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:17,280
Speaker 2: they came through. But that was Florida's defense. That's not

1184
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:20,920
Speaker 2: Louisville's defense. But I look at what Kentucky did to

1185
01:01:21,000 --> 01:01:23,680
Speaker 2: beat Louisville. They got scores on the board by having

1186
01:01:23,760 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 2: Devin Leary hit Ray Davis out of the backfield for

1187
01:01:26,040 --> 01:01:29,080
Speaker 2: two touchdowns. Trey Benson and Lawrence to Affhilly they have

1188
01:01:29,200 --> 01:01:32,680
Speaker 2: twenty three targets, are less and a receiving td apiece

1189
01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 2: on the season. Each were targeted just wants by Radamaker

1190
01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:39,920
Speaker 2: in that game against Florida. So what Kentucky did to

1191
01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:43,040
Speaker 2: beat Louisville, Florida State doesn't do and I'm not sure

1192
01:01:43,120 --> 01:01:46,480
Speaker 2: Trey Benson and Lawrence tow Affilly are capable of doing it.

1193
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:49,480
Speaker 2: So I like the under in this game, pulling for

1194
01:01:49,800 --> 01:01:51,600
Speaker 2: Florida State to get knocked out of the playoff. Like

1195
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:53,440
Speaker 2: everybody else. I got a Texas ticket. I need to

1196
01:01:53,440 --> 01:01:55,439
Speaker 2: get in there. There's probably going to be a live

1197
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:57,840
Speaker 2: bet or a second half play on Florida State only

1198
01:01:58,360 --> 01:02:01,520
Speaker 2: for hedging purposes on the Texas future that I have

1199
01:02:01,680 --> 01:02:03,520
Speaker 2: to go to the college football playoff. That's it. It

1200
01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:05,760
Speaker 2: has nothing to do with me loving Florida State, So

1201
01:02:06,240 --> 01:02:08,000
Speaker 2: keep your eyes open on that. But under the play,

1202
01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:09,440
Speaker 2: do you think Louisa wins?

1203
01:02:09,640 --> 01:02:09,680
Speaker 3: No?

1204
01:02:09,880 --> 01:02:13,760
Speaker 2: I think Florida State's gonna win. Wow, barely?

1205
01:02:14,000 --> 01:02:17,160
Speaker 3: No football gods. All right, let's go to the last

1206
01:02:17,240 --> 01:02:21,960
Speaker 3: game on the docket. Does Iowa Michigan.

1207
01:02:23,840 --> 01:02:29,280
Speaker 2: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers. Avoid it like the plague.

1208
01:02:30,320 --> 01:02:34,800
Speaker 2: Let's check in with bow Dog Jim. Do you want

1209
01:02:34,840 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 2: to set it up? It's a quick one for.

1210
01:02:36,200 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 3: Me, Michigan. What around twenty three point favorite here? Although

1211
01:02:41,600 --> 01:02:43,840
Speaker 3: I think someone was setting up to take Iowa money

1212
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:47,640
Speaker 3: to bet, Iowa dumbled it up and then hit it Michigan.

1213
01:02:47,680 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 3: I think, yeah, I know. Twenty two point favorite over

1214
01:02:49,280 --> 01:02:51,480
Speaker 3: under thirty four and a half, the lowest by far

1215
01:02:51,520 --> 01:02:53,480
Speaker 3: in a conference championship. The previous low is thirty eight.

1216
01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:57,120
Speaker 3: For what it's worth, out low totals have gone over

1217
01:02:57,320 --> 01:03:00,080
Speaker 3: historically in bowl games at a very high rate. But

1218
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:03,640
Speaker 3: the Hawkeyes forty nineteen and one to the under since

1219
01:03:03,680 --> 01:03:07,439
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen sixty eight percent. Nine of their twelve games

1220
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:09,960
Speaker 3: this year have failed to reach thirty five combined points,

1221
01:03:10,320 --> 01:03:12,960
Speaker 3: including each of the past seven which have averaged fewer

1222
01:03:13,000 --> 01:03:16,160
Speaker 3: than twenty four points per game. As I mentioned last week,

1223
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:17,760
Speaker 3: I would begin the first team since two thousand to

1224
01:03:17,800 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 3: win more than four games while averaging fewer than two

1225
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:23,440
Speaker 3: and fifth yards per game. H won ten while averaging

1226
01:03:23,560 --> 01:03:26,480
Speaker 3: twenty five yards less than the next first offense in

1227
01:03:26,960 --> 01:03:33,160
Speaker 3: the prolific Kent State Golden Flashes offense. Uh yeah, I

1228
01:03:33,320 --> 01:03:34,800
Speaker 3: was one of the best under teams in the countries.

1229
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:36,520
Speaker 3: You might imagine ten and two to the under, going

1230
01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:38,080
Speaker 3: under by an average of four and a half points

1231
01:03:38,120 --> 01:03:40,680
Speaker 3: per game. To Lane also was ten and two to

1232
01:03:40,760 --> 01:03:43,280
Speaker 3: the under. They had actually a better margin, but their

1233
01:03:43,360 --> 01:03:45,200
Speaker 3: totals a little higher. The best under team in the

1234
01:03:45,240 --> 01:03:48,600
Speaker 3: country UCLA ten and two going under by eleven points

1235
01:03:48,640 --> 01:03:54,040
Speaker 3: per game. So look, I was defense. You know, it's

1236
01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:56,160
Speaker 3: pretty good. But they got dominated by Penn State and

1237
01:03:56,160 --> 01:03:57,840
Speaker 3: they ran through the Big ten West. Their special teams

1238
01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:01,520
Speaker 3: are good. Here's my handicap of this game. Know, I mean,

1239
01:04:01,680 --> 01:04:04,200
Speaker 3: I make it right around the number, So it's hard

1240
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:06,200
Speaker 3: for me I might bet just for fun, for ships

1241
01:04:06,240 --> 01:04:08,960
Speaker 3: in prime time. I might bet I will under half

1242
01:04:09,040 --> 01:04:11,800
Speaker 3: point in the first half. I just think that'll be fun.

1243
01:04:13,160 --> 01:04:16,680
Speaker 3: But both both offices are bottom twenty five in explosiveness.

1244
01:04:17,000 --> 01:04:21,600
Speaker 3: The path Iowa covering is like hunt returns ed. Yeah,

1245
01:04:21,680 --> 01:04:26,920
Speaker 3: that or just Michigan like multiple ten minute drives and

1246
01:04:27,000 --> 01:04:28,800
Speaker 3: then they just sit on it. But here's the thing,

1247
01:04:29,240 --> 01:04:32,200
Speaker 3: Iowa wins these games and it's gotten here. You gotta

1248
01:04:32,200 --> 01:04:35,320
Speaker 3: give Farren's credit for this by all the stuff that

1249
01:04:35,360 --> 01:04:37,800
Speaker 3: I mentioned With miam Ohio. No, they never get penalties

1250
01:04:37,800 --> 01:04:39,960
Speaker 3: their top five. They're number four in penalties, guess was

1251
01:04:40,040 --> 01:04:43,200
Speaker 3: number one. Michigan. They do it with special teams. Michigan

1252
01:04:43,240 --> 01:04:46,240
Speaker 3: actually grads up better special teams this year. Iowa six

1253
01:04:46,680 --> 01:04:49,560
Speaker 3: kicks block this year, not good great kick return, but

1254
01:04:49,640 --> 01:04:53,080
Speaker 3: Michigan best kick return defense, no degene on defense and

1255
01:04:53,160 --> 01:04:55,280
Speaker 3: in the pump return game. Both have top ten punters,

1256
01:04:55,800 --> 01:04:58,840
Speaker 3: so there's no special teams advantage for Iowa either. Iowa

1257
01:04:58,880 --> 01:05:00,680
Speaker 3: was second worst in the country and line yards. They

1258
01:05:00,720 --> 01:05:03,800
Speaker 3: have an offensive guard playing quarterback who trips over a

1259
01:05:03,920 --> 01:05:07,240
Speaker 3: center every other play. They're dead last and standard down

1260
01:05:07,320 --> 01:05:11,840
Speaker 3: success rate dead last in yards per game. Both defenses

1261
01:05:11,840 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 3: are top three points for opportunity. I mean, how does

1262
01:05:15,120 --> 01:05:17,439
Speaker 3: Iowa score? I don't know they got it. I want

1263
01:05:17,440 --> 01:05:19,640
Speaker 3: to bet under a first half under our path because

1264
01:05:19,640 --> 01:05:23,040
Speaker 3: I'm basically just rooting for Michigan not to lose a

1265
01:05:23,080 --> 01:05:25,520
Speaker 3: fumble in their own territory. I think that'd be funny.

1266
01:05:25,840 --> 01:05:27,000
Speaker 3: I don't see much in this game.

1267
01:05:27,360 --> 01:05:29,800
Speaker 2: What do you say? Yeah, I hear this noise about

1268
01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:33,360
Speaker 2: how Michigan can't bounce off of Ohio State and put

1269
01:05:33,400 --> 01:05:36,480
Speaker 2: it on them. And Michigan showed up against Maryland in

1270
01:05:36,520 --> 01:05:39,160
Speaker 2: a hangover overlook sandwich spot in between Penn State and

1271
01:05:39,200 --> 01:05:43,600
Speaker 2: Ohio State, and they screwed up there. I don't think

1272
01:05:43,600 --> 01:05:45,880
Speaker 2: that's going to happen here. Look, Michigan was in this

1273
01:05:46,040 --> 01:05:48,680
Speaker 2: exact same spot two years ago in Lucas Oil Stadium

1274
01:05:49,000 --> 01:05:51,240
Speaker 2: off of beating Ohio State first time they beat him.

1275
01:05:51,280 --> 01:05:53,880
Speaker 2: And I don't know how long They won this game

1276
01:05:53,880 --> 01:05:56,600
Speaker 2: against Iowa forty two to three. All right, they showed

1277
01:05:56,680 --> 01:05:59,560
Speaker 2: up last year after beating Ohio State. They beat Perdue

1278
01:05:59,640 --> 01:06:02,320
Speaker 2: forty three to twenty two. They've put up more than

1279
01:06:02,400 --> 01:06:05,720
Speaker 2: forty points, two consecutive Big Ten championships in a row,

1280
01:06:06,000 --> 01:06:07,280
Speaker 2: and all of a sudden. I'm supposed to believe with

1281
01:06:07,280 --> 01:06:10,240
Speaker 2: this Iowa defense, who's been playing the Big ten West,

1282
01:06:11,000 --> 01:06:13,960
Speaker 2: is going to keep them from scoring. I mean, we

1283
01:06:14,040 --> 01:06:16,080
Speaker 2: can handicap if Iowa's going to score. I mean they're

1284
01:06:16,120 --> 01:06:19,840
Speaker 2: bottom ten, and geez, almost everything. Quality drives, finishing drives,

1285
01:06:20,400 --> 01:06:22,880
Speaker 2: success rate, explosives. It doesn't matter.

1286
01:06:23,040 --> 01:06:25,480
Speaker 3: It's so bad.

1287
01:06:25,560 --> 01:06:28,600
Speaker 2: So I think the question really is, what if Michigan

1288
01:06:28,680 --> 01:06:30,520
Speaker 2: decides to line up and play a little Penn State

1289
01:06:30,560 --> 01:06:32,480
Speaker 2: ball where they just ran Blake Korum off tackle and

1290
01:06:32,520 --> 01:06:35,960
Speaker 2: said try to stop us. Is that enough for Michigan

1291
01:06:36,040 --> 01:06:38,560
Speaker 2: to cover and to get their amount of points. I mean,

1292
01:06:38,600 --> 01:06:41,080
Speaker 2: we don't know McCarthy's health, we don't know if they're

1293
01:06:41,080 --> 01:06:44,440
Speaker 2: gonna allow to pass. Iowa is the best in the

1294
01:06:44,520 --> 01:06:49,120
Speaker 2: Big Ten versus outside zone and man run concepts. That's

1295
01:06:49,200 --> 01:06:53,040
Speaker 2: not what Michigan runs. Michigan's highest run concept is inside zone.

1296
01:06:53,160 --> 01:06:55,640
Speaker 2: It usually comes out of the eleven formation when you

1297
01:06:55,720 --> 01:06:58,840
Speaker 2: go into Iowa. I tweeted it out earlier today. Iowa

1298
01:06:59,000 --> 01:07:02,440
Speaker 2: has an extreme, dremely low forty two percent success rate

1299
01:07:02,480 --> 01:07:06,400
Speaker 2: against inside zone coming out of eleven formation eleven personnel. Sorry,

1300
01:07:07,760 --> 01:07:10,480
Speaker 2: Michigan's gonna run Blake Korum and they're gonna get chunk

1301
01:07:10,560 --> 01:07:13,200
Speaker 2: yards all over the place. I would I'm going to

1302
01:07:13,240 --> 01:07:16,400
Speaker 2: take Michigan team total over twenty eight. This total dip

1303
01:07:16,440 --> 01:07:17,840
Speaker 2: down to thirty four and a half, I wouldn't be

1304
01:07:17,880 --> 01:07:19,720
Speaker 2: surprised it comes down more. I wouldn't surprised if its

1305
01:07:19,760 --> 01:07:22,800
Speaker 2: teams down more. But if it does, that should bring

1306
01:07:22,840 --> 01:07:24,720
Speaker 2: the Michigan team total down to maybe twenty seven a

1307
01:07:24,720 --> 01:07:27,200
Speaker 2: half or twenty seven. So I'm waiting. But Michigan team

1308
01:07:27,200 --> 01:07:28,720
Speaker 2: total over is a play for me because I think

1309
01:07:28,760 --> 01:07:31,480
Speaker 2: if they simply line up and do what they did

1310
01:07:31,520 --> 01:07:33,480
Speaker 2: against Penn State in the second half of Blake Koram,

1311
01:07:34,400 --> 01:07:36,600
Speaker 2: I was not shown against inside zone that they can

1312
01:07:36,680 --> 01:07:39,520
Speaker 2: stop that. So Michigan team total over, I'm gonna wait.

1313
01:07:40,600 --> 01:07:41,160
Speaker 2: I don't mind that.

1314
01:07:41,960 --> 01:07:45,040
Speaker 3: Uh, pray for me at my under first half. Bet

1315
01:07:45,760 --> 01:07:48,600
Speaker 3: good stuff going through all ten games. But we're not

1316
01:07:48,680 --> 01:07:50,120
Speaker 3: done yet. But we got there. We gotta go three

1317
01:07:50,160 --> 01:07:50,400
Speaker 3: and out.

1318
01:07:52,720 --> 01:07:56,840
Speaker 2: Let's make it a quick three and out, all right?

1319
01:07:57,160 --> 01:07:59,760
Speaker 3: Uh, look, first down, we're gonna do a little different

1320
01:07:59,760 --> 01:08:02,560
Speaker 3: because obviously we went through all the games already. First down,

1321
01:08:02,640 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 3: do our favorite side make this quick? So we already

1322
01:08:04,880 --> 01:08:06,640
Speaker 3: went through the games. I'm gonna say Apps State. I

1323
01:08:06,680 --> 01:08:09,600
Speaker 3: think this team's rolling undervided in the market. Good matchup

1324
01:08:09,800 --> 01:08:12,000
Speaker 3: Troy not an elite rushing offense. That's how you beat

1325
01:08:12,040 --> 01:08:15,720
Speaker 3: this app State team. Defense trending up. App State not

1326
01:08:15,800 --> 01:08:18,679
Speaker 3: afraid to go on the road and get it done.

1327
01:08:19,240 --> 01:08:21,519
Speaker 3: Give me the kneears.

1328
01:08:22,000 --> 01:08:24,360
Speaker 2: What do you got, I'm gonna go Boise State not

1329
01:08:24,479 --> 01:08:27,280
Speaker 2: really home field advantage for UNLV and Allegiant Boys usually

1330
01:08:27,320 --> 01:08:29,760
Speaker 2: brings a pretty big crowd there. But more importantly, they

1331
01:08:29,800 --> 01:08:31,559
Speaker 2: have the best player in the game on both sides

1332
01:08:31,560 --> 01:08:33,920
Speaker 2: of the ball, which is Ashton Genty. Look for Taylor

1333
01:08:34,000 --> 01:08:36,200
Speaker 2: Green to hit him and George Lane in the backfield

1334
01:08:36,240 --> 01:08:38,880
Speaker 2: and then just cause a whole bunch of chaos on

1335
01:08:39,040 --> 01:08:42,519
Speaker 2: that UNLV secondary. I know UNLV can score points, and

1336
01:08:42,640 --> 01:08:46,040
Speaker 2: they will, but Boise has the better players. They're gonna

1337
01:08:46,080 --> 01:08:49,599
Speaker 2: survive and win this game by at least three second down.

1338
01:08:49,800 --> 01:08:52,760
Speaker 3: Let's go with our favorite total. I'm gonna go the

1339
01:08:53,240 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 3: match it under in Detroits between my have behind and Toledo.

1340
01:08:56,240 --> 01:08:58,080
Speaker 3: I know it's a lower number and a fast track,

1341
01:08:58,160 --> 01:09:00,920
Speaker 3: but both these defenses are actual on the top forty

1342
01:09:01,040 --> 01:09:03,760
Speaker 3: ish nationally. I think two of the best at the

1343
01:09:03,800 --> 01:09:07,160
Speaker 3: group of five level, give me under forty four, it's

1344
01:09:07,200 --> 01:09:07,800
Speaker 3: your favorite total.

1345
01:09:08,040 --> 01:09:11,479
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go first quarter SEC Championship Game Bama Georgia

1346
01:09:11,800 --> 01:09:14,679
Speaker 2: under ten and a half. Last four times these teams

1347
01:09:14,720 --> 01:09:16,600
Speaker 2: have played either in the National Title Game or in

1348
01:09:16,640 --> 01:09:19,479
Speaker 2: the SEC Championship Game, the first quarter has accumulated a

1349
01:09:19,680 --> 01:09:23,760
Speaker 2: grand total of thirteen points in those four instances. I

1350
01:09:23,960 --> 01:09:27,360
Speaker 2: think this starts out extremely slow. Maybe lad McConkie and

1351
01:09:27,400 --> 01:09:29,360
Speaker 2: Brock Bauers aren't going to play, who knows, but I'm

1352
01:09:29,439 --> 01:09:30,920
Speaker 2: taking the first quarter under ten and a half.

1353
01:09:31,560 --> 01:09:34,720
Speaker 3: And then finally, I made an executive decision for money

1354
01:09:34,760 --> 01:09:36,920
Speaker 3: one underdog. We usually just have we're done at the

1355
01:09:36,960 --> 01:09:39,439
Speaker 3: regro season, but we hit our last two and then

1356
01:09:39,479 --> 01:09:41,600
Speaker 3: I was getting tweets about it if we're going to

1357
01:09:41,640 --> 01:09:44,000
Speaker 3: do one this weekend. So you've hit two in a row,

1358
01:09:45,479 --> 01:09:47,719
Speaker 3: so we're going to do a third. Uh. I actually

1359
01:09:47,760 --> 01:09:50,320
Speaker 3: was going to use yours, but you you got them

1360
01:09:50,320 --> 01:09:52,240
Speaker 3: there first into the dock. So I'm going to go

1361
01:09:52,280 --> 01:09:58,479
Speaker 3: to Louisville. I believe in football gods. Tay Roddamaker stinks

1362
01:09:59,200 --> 01:10:01,800
Speaker 3: he can't take advantage Louislle's biggest issue on defense, which

1363
01:10:01,880 --> 01:10:04,040
Speaker 3: is giving up exposive plays. You know, it's even worse

1364
01:10:04,040 --> 01:10:08,320
Speaker 3: to give up exposive plays. In Louisville, Larda barda State

1365
01:10:08,880 --> 01:10:12,880
Speaker 3: one two hundred and twenty total yards. Last week, Louisville wins.

1366
01:10:13,080 --> 01:10:15,240
Speaker 3: Give the Cardinals l's up for once.

1367
01:10:16,600 --> 01:10:18,840
Speaker 2: Give me app State, give me the Mountaineers on the

1368
01:10:18,920 --> 01:10:21,759
Speaker 2: road in the sunbell which, as Stucky explained earlier, doesn't

1369
01:10:21,760 --> 01:10:25,200
Speaker 2: mean that much. Look for their quarterback Joey Aguilar to

1370
01:10:25,280 --> 01:10:27,719
Speaker 2: have a big game. He had nine passes over fifteen

1371
01:10:27,800 --> 01:10:30,760
Speaker 2: yards against JMU. Like Stucky said before, they're not going

1372
01:10:30,840 --> 01:10:32,640
Speaker 2: to be scared of this moment. They've played on much

1373
01:10:32,680 --> 01:10:35,800
Speaker 2: bigger stages, especially this year. So give me appalation State

1374
01:10:36,280 --> 01:10:37,200
Speaker 2: love it all.

1375
01:10:37,160 --> 01:10:38,760
Speaker 3: Right, that'll do it for us. But I do want

1376
01:10:38,760 --> 01:10:41,120
Speaker 3: to I met promise a couple of giveaways. Leave five

1377
01:10:41,120 --> 01:10:44,280
Speaker 3: star review. You'd say, whatever really helps us out, and

1378
01:10:44,400 --> 01:10:47,920
Speaker 3: we'll do giveaways. Kate Mendel Diego Pavia for gambling Heisman.

1379
01:10:48,479 --> 01:10:52,240
Speaker 3: Here's a promise. Diego wins on Friday Night. He wins

1380
01:10:52,280 --> 01:10:55,320
Speaker 3: the gambling Heisman. He wins out right. Good luck to

1381
01:10:55,360 --> 01:10:58,320
Speaker 3: the Ponzi scheme. Feed the kids. These guys work their

1382
01:10:58,360 --> 01:11:01,360
Speaker 3: tails off, By the way, Reach out to podcasts at

1383
01:11:01,360 --> 01:11:02,800
Speaker 3: Action network dot com or reach out to me or

1384
01:11:02,800 --> 01:11:04,680
Speaker 3: oh boy, uncle Mitchell producer. We'll send you guys some

1385
01:11:04,800 --> 01:11:07,800
Speaker 3: gear and Mason A two two three two one on YouTube.

1386
01:11:07,800 --> 01:11:09,439
Speaker 3: Can wait for Friday's breakdown at a compet too, Sha

1387
01:11:09,760 --> 01:11:12,439
Speaker 3: Champ Game, We Ride with Diego and the Ponzi Scheme Spang.

1388
01:11:12,479 --> 01:11:14,360
Speaker 3: I've been listening every Collegeule webisode for three years now.

1389
01:11:14,360 --> 01:11:16,800
Speaker 3: Excellent content and program and apsolde must if you dabble.

1390
01:11:16,840 --> 01:11:18,080
Speaker 3: I only wish the guys were around when I was

1391
01:11:18,120 --> 01:11:20,360
Speaker 3: running Parlay cars in middle school, but they likely weren't

1392
01:11:20,360 --> 01:11:22,920
Speaker 3: even born. I bet we were good stuff there. We

1393
01:11:22,960 --> 01:11:25,080
Speaker 3: appreciate all the reviews. They really help us out. Loved

1394
01:11:25,160 --> 01:11:28,320
Speaker 3: seeing all the Spotify percentage list of people who were

1395
01:11:28,320 --> 01:11:31,240
Speaker 3: sending us to So if you have those Spotify rap

1396
01:11:31,320 --> 01:11:33,479
Speaker 3: stuff when we were in your top three, send us those.

1397
01:11:33,720 --> 01:11:35,559
Speaker 3: Love seeing them, but thanks for the support.

1398
01:11:36,520 --> 01:11:40,080
Speaker 5: Hey, this producer Matt Mitchell, stopping by very briefly to

1399
01:11:40,160 --> 01:11:42,840
Speaker 5: say thank you to each and to every one of

1400
01:11:42,960 --> 01:11:46,720
Speaker 5: our BBOC listeners. In my job as audio director here,

1401
01:11:46,800 --> 01:11:50,120
Speaker 5: I am in charge of all of our podcasts, and

1402
01:11:50,320 --> 01:11:53,880
Speaker 5: while all of the podcasts are like my children, like

1403
01:11:54,000 --> 01:11:57,360
Speaker 5: my own physical children. It is very easy to select

1404
01:11:57,439 --> 01:12:00,720
Speaker 5: my favorite, and my favorite is this show, which has

1405
01:12:00,800 --> 01:12:04,280
Speaker 5: always meant the world to me as a producer and

1406
01:12:04,439 --> 01:12:07,679
Speaker 5: a college football degenerate. So thank you from the bottom

1407
01:12:07,760 --> 01:12:12,000
Speaker 5: of my black, charred gambling heart for listening to this

1408
01:12:12,320 --> 01:12:15,080
Speaker 5: show this season and every season, and I wish you

1409
01:12:15,280 --> 01:12:18,360
Speaker 5: the very best of luck as we enter ball season.

1410
01:12:19,160 --> 01:12:19,880
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening.

1411
01:12:20,479 --> 01:12:22,719
Speaker 3: Let's have a big conference championship weekend. Thanks that's always

1412
01:12:22,720 --> 01:12:24,439
Speaker 3: the conference joining me. Thanks to our producer Mitchell on

1413
01:12:24,479 --> 01:12:26,680
Speaker 3: the back end. Thanks most importantly to all of you

1414
01:12:26,800 --> 01:12:28,960
Speaker 3: for tuning in. As a reminder, we'll be back recap

1415
01:12:29,040 --> 01:12:32,439
Speaker 3: show for Monday nine to five nine baby, don't forget

1416
01:12:32,479 --> 01:12:35,200
Speaker 3: to call in the voice now well previously coming soon.

1417
01:12:35,240 --> 01:12:36,679
Speaker 3: Thanks for tuning in to luck on all your wagers

1418
01:12:36,720 --> 01:12:38,080
Speaker 3: this peak. We'll catch you all later. Cheers.

1419
01:12:38,400 --> 01:12:38,880
Speaker 2: Peace Out.

1420
01:12:51,160 --> 01:12:55,640
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1421
01:12:55,720 --> 01:12:58,519
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1422
01:12:58,520 --> 01:13:01,599
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler