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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: We're growing in Joe spectacular cat. I'm saying it's a

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Speaker 1: cash touchdown.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to win.

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Speaker 1: My god, that's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 1: ultimate kabak and we are underway. Hello everyone, Welcome back

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Speaker 1: to another NFL episode of the Action Network Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs. Today

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Speaker 1: we're breaking down the betty market for the AFC and

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Speaker 1: highlighting our favorite plays. I am very excited for this episode.

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Speaker 1: Here with me is Chris Raymond, a senior editor and

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Speaker 1: analyst at the Action Network and a co host of

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Speaker 1: the Action Network show on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio. And

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Speaker 1: joining us is the one in all Warren Sharp, the

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Speaker 1: proprietor of Sharp Football Analysis and Sharp Football Stats. Warren,

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Speaker 1: thanks for joining us.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, happy to you guys.

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Speaker 1: This is I think a fantastic time of year because

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Speaker 1: we're starting to get preseason action. We can get something

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Speaker 1: of a look at what these teams are actually going

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Speaker 1: to be like in the coming season. So really great

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Speaker 1: to have you on the show for everyone listening. This

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Speaker 1: episode is something of a companion piece to the earlier

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Speaker 1: episode we did with Cynthia Freeland in which we broke

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Speaker 1: down the NFC. Be sure to check out that episode

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Speaker 1: and rate and review us on Apple Podcasts or wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. Warren, let's jump into it. You

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Speaker 1: are a master of data, and then not only data,

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Speaker 1: but looking at data and how it relates to the

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Speaker 1: betting market. So can you talk about your analytical process

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Speaker 1: for looking at teams to create a forward facing projection

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Speaker 1: for how a team might do the following year.

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Speaker 4: Well, I give myself about a week two weeks off

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Speaker 4: right after the Super Bowl to kind of decomp because

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Speaker 4: then I go back to the labs, so to speak,

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Speaker 4: and just start cranking away researching. We know at that

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Speaker 4: point certain coaches that have been fired, and that's one

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Speaker 4: of the big things I think that in a lot

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Speaker 4: of the research that I do, I try to account

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Speaker 4: for is the impact of coaching. And it's not just

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Speaker 4: you know, who's in charge, but also the play callers

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Speaker 4: and their decision making.

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Speaker 3: What are their tendencies.

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Speaker 4: Because one of the things that I've seen in through

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Speaker 4: the course of kind of like being able to make

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Speaker 4: predictions accurately, whether it's on a weekly basis like Chris

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Speaker 4: and I did you know a video podcast like a

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Speaker 4: couple of years ago, or it's like on a season

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Speaker 4: long basis. Is that coaches have such massive control over

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Speaker 4: the direction that their teams and players head and if

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Speaker 4: we don't account for what we think they're going to

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Speaker 4: do enough, we can find ourselves, you know, running up

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Speaker 4: the wrong tree. And so I spend a lot of

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Speaker 4: time on coaching. Of course, I break down, you know,

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Speaker 4: what are the key metrics that I want to look at.

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Speaker 4: How do the teams do last year? What types of

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Speaker 4: schedule do I think they're going to face this upcoming year?

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Speaker 4: And a lot of that is projection, right, You're trying

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Speaker 4: to anticipate what the team is going to be in for,

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Speaker 4: so to speak, with the opponents that they're going to face.

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Speaker 4: We don't know for a fact what those teams are

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Speaker 4: actually going to be once they get to the end

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Speaker 4: of the year, but we do our best to try

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Speaker 4: to forecast what we think they're going to run into

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Speaker 4: on a variety of different strength to schedule metrics, you

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Speaker 4: get to see the players that have left, the players

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Speaker 4: that have been added through free agency, drafted, you know.

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Speaker 4: So it's it's basically like just pulling everything together and

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Speaker 4: trying to just get a good understanding of how it

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Speaker 4: all plays in concert with one another. And it obviously

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Speaker 4: is not easy, but you guys try to do the

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Speaker 4: same exact thing, and it's certainly fun. And I one

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Speaker 4: hundred percent echo your sentiment about this time of year

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Speaker 4: because we finally get to see the first inklings of

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Speaker 4: you know, did something that we thought might happen? Is

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Speaker 4: it getting tested out a little bit in the first

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Speaker 4: you know series or two, and then we finally get

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Speaker 4: to the third preseason game and we might get a

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Speaker 4: little bit more of that, But we really don't know

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Speaker 4: some of the stuff until the season actually starts. But

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Speaker 4: it's just super fun to dive in and research it

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Speaker 4: a lot rayon.

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Speaker 1: As Warren mentioned right there, you two were on a

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Speaker 1: podcast together a few years ago, a couple of years ago,

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Speaker 1: which I should say it was actually fantastic listening to

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Speaker 1: a lot of information was wonderful. From that is your

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Speaker 1: process similar to the process that weren't outlined in terms

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Speaker 1: of what you were doing after this season in terms

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Speaker 1: of how you're evaluating teams and projecting them forward.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's almost I don't know if I

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Speaker 5: even take two weeks off. I'm always kind of diving.

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Speaker 5: It's just what I love to do. So the minute

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Speaker 5: something gets announced, I'm looking at it. But I think

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Speaker 5: what Warren said about the coaching is spot on. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I'm working on in our article right now the three

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Speaker 5: key tendencies for each team. It's offensive coordinator, and I

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Speaker 5: mean it must be up to about eight thousand words

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Speaker 5: already because there's just so much information that impacts what's

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Speaker 5: going to happen and that impact the projections that go

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Speaker 5: beyond just kind of having this one size fits all

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Speaker 5: process for each projection. So I think coaches organizational direction

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Speaker 5: kind of that dichotomy. I mean, I think just something

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Speaker 5: as simple as you know in Seattle with you know

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Speaker 5: them drafting or shot Penny or in the first round,

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Speaker 5: but Pete Carroll and the coaching stuff. They love Chris

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Speaker 5: Carson and you know, just kind of understanding that going

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Speaker 5: into last year would have helped you make a projection

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Speaker 5: for you know, what the Seahawks were going to do.

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Speaker 5: So there's just all these kind of things that that

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Speaker 5: I think play into play into it as far as

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Speaker 5: what you know injury, luck, strength to schedule. But I

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Speaker 5: think that coaching and that organizational direction and who's kind

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Speaker 5: of controlling what kind of plays get called, the design

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Speaker 5: of the plays, who who's on the field for those

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Speaker 5: plays has a major impact that I think goes understated.

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Speaker 1: Warrant from last year. What were some of the team

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Speaker 1: level surprises that you found in your research?

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Speaker 4: You know, there's a variety of teams that kind of

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Speaker 4: I think you start with what teams kind of fell

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Speaker 4: below what they should have done, you know, and then

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Speaker 4: you of course you can look at teams that went

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Speaker 4: the opposite way. I think one of the most surprising things,

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Speaker 4: because this actually cuts against the grain of what some

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Speaker 4: other metrics found of this team, was how efficient the

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Speaker 4: San Francisco forty nine ers were last season, especially on

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Speaker 4: early downs. And it's a metric I look at often

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Speaker 4: it correlates really well to wins the losses in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: If you're good at offensively and defensively on early downs,

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Speaker 4: you tend to do really well in games. And they

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Speaker 4: were one of only two teams that finished top ten

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Speaker 4: in early down success rate offense and defense. Last season,

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Speaker 4: if you look at like the general efficiency metrics, they

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Speaker 4: were bottom ten in both. Like DVOA offense and DVOA defense,

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Speaker 4: they clearly had major injury issues, the most important position

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Speaker 4: of of course, being the quarterback, and they lost their

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Speaker 4: quarterback for the majority of the season, and just across

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Speaker 4: the roster they were just devastated by injuries, the fourth

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Speaker 4: most injured team. So the fact that they were top

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Speaker 4: ten in early down success rate offensively and defensively definitely

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Speaker 4: stood out to me and definitely gave me the desire

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Speaker 4: to think that this team is going to potentially exceed

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Speaker 4: expectations or at least kind of what we thought of

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Speaker 4: after the season. However, you look at their odds in

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Speaker 4: Las Vegas, whether it's the futures I know we're talking

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Speaker 4: about the AFC, but you look at the futures market,

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Speaker 4: you look at their win total. I mean, it's been

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Speaker 4: massively adjusted in a positive direction towards expecting the forty

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Speaker 4: nine ers to do pretty well. And even if you're

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Speaker 4: trying to bet them just to win the NFC West,

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Speaker 4: you're not getting a very good return for your investment there.

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Speaker 4: So I think their odds are kind of back on track,

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Speaker 4: but they're definitely a team that in some ways surprised me.

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Speaker 4: And then a team that kind of surprised me for

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Speaker 4: the opposite reasons, where I looked at their statistics after

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Speaker 4: seeing them make the playoffs and I assumed, you know

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Speaker 4: that this is a decent enough team. Was the Seattle Seahawks.

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Speaker 4: You know, the Seattle Seahawks. They went ten and six

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Speaker 4: and they made the postseason. They should have probably beat

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Speaker 4: the Dallas Cowboys last year. But if you look at

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Speaker 4: some of their metrics, especially on early down success rate,

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Speaker 4: you know, this was a team that was below average

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Speaker 4: offensively and in the bottom ten defensively last season, and

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Speaker 4: you know they're candidate. I think that might regress back

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Speaker 4: towards that number this upcoming season with so much of

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Speaker 4: the burden being placed on Russell Wilson to outperform. So again,

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Speaker 4: just like me, I'm throwing out two NFC teams and

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Speaker 4: we're talking about the AFC. But that's a couple of

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Speaker 4: surprises to me.

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Speaker 1: All right, So you mentioned those teams right now, what

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Speaker 1: do you think is the one bet that offers the

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Speaker 1: most value in the market, Like the bet that people

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Speaker 1: would be almost foolish not to make.

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Speaker 3: I think, you know, I did this last year.

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Speaker 4: I bet big on Andrew Luck, and everybody was selling

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Speaker 4: Andrew Luck returning from injury. I was betting on Andrew

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Speaker 4: Luck returning from injury.

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Speaker 3: And I think we've got a similar situation.

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Speaker 4: Not to the extreme right, Andrew Luck had thrown the

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Speaker 4: ball for what over five hundred days, and you know

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Speaker 4: that was like a major story in the media.

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Speaker 3: But I'm really intrigued with the Carolina Panthers.

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Speaker 4: They have a really low win total, they have a

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Speaker 4: super you know, they only went seven to nine last year.

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Speaker 4: They're projected to win I think like seven and a

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Speaker 4: half games this upcoming season.

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Speaker 3: So again, another.

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Speaker 4: NFC team, but I certainly think that they're a team

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Speaker 4: that could outperform where they're projected to finish in the

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Speaker 4: NFC South. I think they're a team that could outperform

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Speaker 4: their win totals. So definitely, you know, I think there's

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Speaker 4: some decent value and still meet left on the bone

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Speaker 4: there to bet on the futures market for the Carolina Panthers.

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Speaker 1: Nice and on our last episode with Simon Bloom, we

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Speaker 1: actually talked about Cam Newton and how dynamic that offense

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Speaker 1: was last year, especially before the shoulder injury. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: some interest there. All right, let's shift into talking about

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Speaker 1: the AFC and let's start with the AFC East and

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Speaker 1: at the top of the division you have the Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl champions, the New England Patriots. What are your thoughts

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Speaker 1: on them? And then kind of going down the rest

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Speaker 1: of that conference, how do you see it playing out?

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Speaker 4: Well, the Patriots are fascinating. I think the biggest amount

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Speaker 4: of intrigue. Of course, you got the personnel, right, So

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Speaker 4: if you want a gloss over the personnel, we could,

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Speaker 4: but clearly changing and having to do something different without

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Speaker 4: Rob Romkowski. They already sort of had to adjust to

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Speaker 4: his lack of mobility down the stretch last season, but

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Speaker 4: not having him there at all to be able to

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Speaker 4: assist in the run game when as a blocker and

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Speaker 4: still go out for some pass routes is going to

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Speaker 4: be something they're going to have to compensate for and overcome,

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Speaker 4: I think statistically, and if you're looking at props and

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Speaker 4: that type of thing for the New England Patriots, one

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Speaker 4: thing to realize is that this team the reason why

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Speaker 4: Brady's touchdowns were down last year, I mean there's a

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Speaker 4: variety of factors, but they decided to go much more

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Speaker 4: run heavy inside the ten, inside the five yard line.

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Speaker 4: They struggled throwing the football down there last season, and

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Speaker 4: or sorry two years ago, went more run heavy, had

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Speaker 4: a lot more bang for the buck, got more touchdowns

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Speaker 4: to the running backs using that strategy. We're a more

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Speaker 4: efficient red zone offense as a result. So look this

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Speaker 4: this team until you dethrown them, you know, then you

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Speaker 4: then you can actually start talking about it. But I

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Speaker 4: still think clearly they are the class of this division.

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Speaker 3: I like the I'm much.

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Speaker 4: Higher on the Bills than I was last year. The

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Speaker 4: Bills were the team that I went the hardest of

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Speaker 4: any team, uh in the futures market.

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Speaker 3: Last year.

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Speaker 4: We got the sports book out at the South Point

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Speaker 4: to raise their limits for us, and we we bet

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Speaker 4: as much as we could on the under seven at

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Speaker 4: a number, and we were fortunate in some ways that

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Speaker 4: they landed on six. I mean, they could have pushed

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Speaker 4: on seven potentially, but that that ended up winning for us.

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Speaker 4: But this team, I think is is better. I'm a

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Speaker 4: big believer in Sean McDermott, like he's just overcome too

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Speaker 4: many things year in a year out on the defensive

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Speaker 4: side of the ball, and they've got very good personnel

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Speaker 4: defensively so, but but I haven't done anything with them

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Speaker 4: on the futures market whatsoever. The New York Jets are

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Speaker 4: another team. They're projected to finish second in that division.

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Speaker 4: I actually, you know, has nothing really to do with

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Speaker 4: Le'Veon Bell, though that doesn't hurt anything. I just think

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Speaker 4: that Sam Donald in his progress in year two. There

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Speaker 4: are a lot of things that he was dealing with

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Speaker 4: last year, from primarily the coaching staff and some of

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Speaker 4: the bad play calling and decision making. We know Adam

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Speaker 4: Geese doesn't go very fast, but he is a more

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Speaker 4: efficient play caller overall than what Sam Donald was forced

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Speaker 4: to deal with last season. And in addition, they had

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Speaker 4: major wide receiver injuries, major running back issues. They were

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Speaker 4: constantly behind the chains, and he's just in a very

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Speaker 4: difficult situation. They have a tough schedule this year, but

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Speaker 4: I am a believer in Sam Donald. And then last,

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Speaker 4: but not least, is the Miami Dolphins, and I actually

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Speaker 4: don't mind their head coach. I think, you know, he's

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Speaker 4: a guy who is going to get a lot out

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Speaker 4: of the team. But he's got a tough task, and

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Speaker 4: their outlook for him and for his future has nothing

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Speaker 4: to do with what this team does in twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 4: So they're building for the future. Who they're going to

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Speaker 4: start at quarterback is going to play into how they

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Speaker 4: ultimately finish here. I think it's very hard to go under.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I've seen some spots at four and a

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Speaker 4: half wins. It's very hard to go under that number.

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Speaker 4: But their defense is a total disaster, and you know,

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Speaker 4: we don't really know which quarterback is going to be

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Speaker 4: going there, and either one is going to be under

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Speaker 4: tremendous heat because of such a terrible offensive line. So

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Speaker 4: you know, that's that's kind of my outlook. I don't

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Speaker 4: really have anything super strong in this division though.

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Speaker 1: All right, raight, bu I want to kick it to you.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts with the AFC East. We have

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Speaker 1: the Patriots with the win total around eleven, the Bills

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Speaker 1: at six and a half, the Jets at seven seven

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Speaker 1: and a half, and the Dolphins is ward set around

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Speaker 1: four and a half or five? Anything catch your eye there?

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Speaker 1: And how do you see this division playing out?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: So, I mean the Patriots have been one of the

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Speaker 5: best win over in terms of their win to one

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Speaker 5: of the best over bets over, you know, in the

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Speaker 5: Belichick era. However, they just missed it last year. And

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Speaker 5: I don't think I would bet over eleven wins here either.

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Speaker 5: I mean, first of all, betting on a high wind

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Speaker 5: total just usually not not a smart move. But if

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Speaker 5: you look at the Patriots, you know, they have this

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Speaker 5: stretch where they it's in week eight, they host Cleveland,

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Speaker 5: then they go to Dallas, then they have to buy

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Speaker 5: then they go to Philly, and then they play Houston,

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Speaker 5: you know, and they go to Baltimore in that stretch too,

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Speaker 5: So they have a ton of kind of games where

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Speaker 5: they could kind of slip up and it could kind

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Speaker 5: of pile on. And they end that stretch they come home,

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Speaker 5: but then they have to face the Kansas City Chiefs,

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Speaker 5: which probably the best team in the conference right now.

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Speaker 5: So it's going to be a tough stretch. They open

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Speaker 5: against Pittsburgh at home. They should probably get that done,

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Speaker 5: but I don't feel confident that they necessarily get to

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Speaker 5: twelve wins. Tom Brady getting a year older, if you

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Speaker 5: look at his career yards per attempt seven point two

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Speaker 5: without Rob Gronkowski eight point one with and that's very

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Speaker 5: predictive of you know, success is just being able to

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Speaker 5: move the past the ball efficiently. It's why even though

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Speaker 5: the Packers have had Aaron Rodgers for all these years,

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Speaker 5: these last four five years, they haven't really been that

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Speaker 5: successful because as good as he is at not turning

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Speaker 5: the ball over and throwing touchdowns, it's not as efficient

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Speaker 5: as it once was. So Patriots, I think are weeps

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Speaker 5: and bounds ahead of the rest of the division, but

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Speaker 5: wouldn't bet on them over eleven wins, and then I

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Speaker 5: am out on the Jets, I'm going under. I don't

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Speaker 5: trust Adam Gase and I just don't think when you

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Speaker 5: saw them fire the GM mccagnuin kind of.

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Speaker 2: Close before camp.

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Speaker 5: I just I don't know about the cohesion of the

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Speaker 5: roster to what Adam Gase truly wants.

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Speaker 2: He kind of said he didn't want Bell.

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Speaker 5: I think that Sam Donald is like a Robbie Anderson

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Speaker 5: sprained ankle away from being probably the league's foremost checkdown artist.

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, Jamison Crowd probably weaks that team

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Speaker 5: in receiving easily.

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Speaker 2: I don't trust their defense.

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Speaker 5: I don't think that I think that the schedule's tough,

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Speaker 5: and I think Buffalo I totally agree with Warren on McDermott.

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Speaker 5: McDermott consistently has outperformed expectations and done less with more

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Speaker 5: they get it. I mean, they might not get the

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Speaker 5: free agents, all the free agents that they need. And

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Speaker 5: you know, we saw Antonio Brown just gonna say hey,

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Speaker 5: like I'm not in here. But you know, this team

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Speaker 5: I think is the second best team in that division.

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Speaker 5: And then I think it's just between Miami and the

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Speaker 5: Jets for who's worst. But Buffalo I think clearly to

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Speaker 5: me a tier ahead of the New York Jets and

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Speaker 5: the Miami Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: Ravin, I agree with you on Buffalo, And one thing

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Speaker 1: that is encouraging is that even though they have a

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Speaker 1: defensive minded head coach, they've really looked to build around

345
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Speaker 1: their young quarterback this year and they brought in John Brown,

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Speaker 1: who I think is a good weapon for Josh Allen's

347
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Speaker 1: skill set with that strong arm. So yeah, the Bills,

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Speaker 1: they're an intriguing team. The Jets, I'm also with you

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Speaker 1: there any team that has Jamison Crowder as his number

350
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Speaker 1: one receiver is probably destined to underwhelm. But that's probably

351
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Speaker 1: just my own bias and the Dolphins, Yeah, agree, totally

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Speaker 1: down on them.

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Speaker 4: To interject one thing on the Bills. That's interesting since

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Speaker 4: we're talking about their coaching and their ability to get

355
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Speaker 4: more I think one of the underrated things that they did.

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Speaker 4: You mentioned some of the players they've got there is

357
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Speaker 4: we know that Josh Allen is not very act and

358
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Speaker 4: Cam Newton struggled with that as well. They're both like

359
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Speaker 4: taller guys and they struggle with some accuracy issues. And

360
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Speaker 4: one of the things that he did is instead of

361
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Speaker 4: keeping their long armed, tall receivers, they went the opposite

362
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Speaker 4: direction and brought in their short, quick guys. You mentioned

363
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Speaker 4: John Brown, they got Col Beastly, they got Robert Foster,

364
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,280
Speaker 4: all these quick, short guys that I think are going

365
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Speaker 4: to try to get open with wider areas where Josh

366
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Speaker 4: Allen could still be like, not quite as accurate, but

367
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Speaker 4: there won't be a defender standing right next to him

368
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Speaker 4: to that receiver, like he's got a little bit of

369
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Speaker 4: space there to work with. So I'm interested to see

370
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Speaker 4: how that experiment plays out. But I think it's it's

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Speaker 4: wise to try to, you know, go in that direction

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Speaker 4: for a guy like Josh Allen.

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Speaker 1: So one of my questions here with the Dolphins and

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Speaker 1: then we can move on to the AFC North. I

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Speaker 1: think they're going to be really bad. And news has

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Speaker 1: just broken. We're recording this on Wednesday, but news has

377
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Speaker 1: broken recently that Kenyan Drake has a foot injury. It's

378
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Speaker 1: questionable whether he will be ready for the start of

379
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Speaker 1: the season. But this team just seems to me like

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Speaker 1: one you really want to fade. But do you feel

381
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Speaker 1: confident in either one of you? And going under five wins?

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't go over five wins, but it's not high

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Speaker 4: on my list of priorities to tie up my money.

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Speaker 4: Going under five, needing four or less, I think that's

385
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Speaker 4: more likely to occur than going over.

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Speaker 3: But I just you know, the.

387
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Speaker 4: One thing, the one trick with the futures market obviously,

388
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Speaker 4: is you're not going to get paid until January, and

389
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Speaker 4: I think that there's better places to find opportunities. But

390
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Speaker 4: that being said, you know, it certainly would not shock

391
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Speaker 4: me if that were the case. I think under is

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Speaker 4: more probable than over, but I'm it's not super high

393
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Speaker 4: on my list to get down on.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to the AFC Noworths. We have the Browns,

395
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Speaker 1: the Steelers, the Ravens, and the Bengals. We have the

396
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Speaker 1: Browns at the top of the division right now with

397
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Speaker 1: an over under of nine and a half warrant. How

398
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Speaker 1: are you approaching this division?

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Speaker 4: In this division, I kind of picked out the one

400
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Speaker 4: team that I think is is not being given the

401
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,920
Speaker 4: proper respect, and to me, that's the Baltimore Ravens. I mean,

402
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Speaker 4: I know that the Cleveland Browns have not finished first

403
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,200
Speaker 4: in this division, but clearly they never had a quarterback

404
00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:12,440
Speaker 4: like Baker Mayfield. Then we buy into their head coach.

405
00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,840
Speaker 4: He's made some analytical changes during the season last year

406
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,359
Speaker 4: when he could control some things, and that's like in

407
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 4: the heat of the moment, you spur the moment. He's

408
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 4: got to go from running back coach to all of

409
00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 4: a sudden make these decisions as the offensive coordinator. And

410
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,960
Speaker 4: he did a pretty good job down the stretch. However,

411
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Speaker 4: all of that being said, the team that I kind

412
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Speaker 4: of like is the Baltimore Ravens. They're projected to finish

413
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Speaker 4: third in this division, and I think it really comes

414
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Speaker 4: down to do you or do you not think Lamar

415
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:42,479
Speaker 4: Jackson can be a capable quarterback? But before you have

416
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 4: to preface that with realizing that there are different types

417
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 4: of quarterbacks in the league, and there's different schemes in

418
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:53,080
Speaker 4: the league. And the reason I have a positive outlook

419
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,280
Speaker 4: is because the Ravens are actually doing what teams should

420
00:19:56,320 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 4: be doing, and that's crafting their entire philosophy around the

421
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,080
Speaker 4: strengths of their quarterbacks. So they're going to get the

422
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,160
Speaker 4: most out of Lamar Jackson's upside. That would be possible

423
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Speaker 4: because of their open mind towards playing offensive football. And

424
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Speaker 4: you know, if you tried to get Tom Brady to

425
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 4: play that way, or you know, Ben Roethsberg to play

426
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,239
Speaker 4: that way, obviously it would be a colossal failure. But

427
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Speaker 4: because Lamar is Lamar, he's going to have some success

428
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Speaker 4: doing that.

429
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:21,200
Speaker 3: Now.

430
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Speaker 4: You can argue that the Chargers tried to counter that

431
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 4: in the postseason and they had some success. But I'll

432
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,879
Speaker 4: throw back that in the fourth quarter. Obviously, the Chargers

433
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 4: are playing a little bit more defensively, but once Lamar

434
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,360
Speaker 4: started throwing the football, the Ravens were able.

435
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:33,679
Speaker 3: To move it.

436
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,639
Speaker 4: And I know that the Ravens regret not throwing the

437
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 4: football earlier in that game, and I don't think that's

438
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 4: going to be a situation this year. Yes, I would

439
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 4: have liked Marquis Brown to be healthy. The reports are

440
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 4: that he's not, and that he's probably not going to

441
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,439
Speaker 4: be able to give you a full, complete, healthy season,

442
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:53,200
Speaker 4: so that's disappointing. But I still think that this team

443
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,720
Speaker 4: is going to be good enough defensively, and I'm really,

444
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 4: you know, more optimistic than most on their offense. So

445
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,640
Speaker 4: I'm sort of buying them while the market's selling them.

446
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 4: I don't love whether win total sits right now. They've

447
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 4: been one of the teams that's been most bet towards

448
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,760
Speaker 4: the under, so there's no chance I'm going to lay

449
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 4: eight to go over eight and a half. I'm gonna

450
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:14,720
Speaker 4: wait a little bit and get eight. But that's a

451
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:16,879
Speaker 4: team that I would be looking at.

452
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 3: I think the.

453
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 4: Steelers, you know that they're they're being overlooked a little

454
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 4: bit because there's so much hype on the Browns, But

455
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 4: I don't really have a strong conviction either way there.

456
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,399
Speaker 4: And then of course the Cincinnati Bengals. You know, I

457
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 4: just don't know about the coaching there. Ag Green. You

458
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 4: know that I think they're a team that has the

459
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 4: potential to exceed their low win total. Certainly, they were

460
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,439
Speaker 4: doing well enough to over the first half of the

461
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 4: season before they suffered a lot of catastrophic injuries there,

462
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 4: so I want to be looking to go under their

463
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,399
Speaker 4: win total. That being said, I mean they play the

464
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 4: number one most difficult schedule of past defenses this year,

465
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,439
Speaker 4: so Andy Dalton and AJ Green if he's healthy, won't

466
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 4: have it easy and it's just going to be a

467
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 4: difficult road to hoe in my opinion because of their schedule.

468
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,360
Speaker 3: But overall, I think the Ravens.

469
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 4: Is the team that I have the most affinity for

470
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:12,119
Speaker 4: here based on their current projected futures market Ravon.

471
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 1: There is a lot to talk about with this division.

472
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 1: You have Odell Beckham junior with the Browns and they

473
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 1: have a new head coach, the Steelers without Antonio Brown,

474
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 1: the Ravens really entering the Lamar Jackson era in full force,

475
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 1: and then the Bengals without AJ Green to begin the season.

476
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,960
Speaker 1: Where are you most intrigued by this this division?

477
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 5: Well, I think the Browns to me are an easy

478
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 5: over bet. I mean, in the A their win total,

479
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,479
Speaker 5: Browns to make the playoffs, you know, Browns to win

480
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 5: the division. I think they're clearly a tier ahead of

481
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 5: the of the Steelers and the Ravens, who I think

482
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 5: are a lot more closer to that that five hundred mark,

483
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 5: where where the Browns are a lot closer to that

484
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 5: we're pushing for kind of that that that top tier

485
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 5: in the conference. I still don't think they're at the

486
00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 5: point that Kansas City is yet, but six games into

487
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,919
Speaker 5: the season, if I can see you know, a sample

488
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,239
Speaker 5: size of them playing against you know, and how that

489
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:08,160
Speaker 5: defense is coming together, I think they could enter that category.

490
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 5: Baker Mayfield was just spectacular, a tenth of a point

491
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 5: behind Baker Mayfield in yard per attempt once Freddie Kitchens

492
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:20,360
Speaker 5: took over again, passing efficiency, extremely predictive of success. They

493
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:23,199
Speaker 5: have a lot of talent, a key defensive positions, you know,

494
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,679
Speaker 5: edge rusher, they have Miles Garrett, they have Ward at corner,

495
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 5: So just a lot of talent. I think Todd Mounkin

496
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 5: the OC is going underrated as well because we're all

497
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 5: this Kitchens talk and what you know, some of the

498
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 5: concepts and ideas that he's going to bring to this offense.

499
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 5: So I think the Browns, clearly, that's that's who I

500
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 5: feel most confident in. I think the Bengals are at

501
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 5: the other end of the spectrum. I think they're I

502
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 5: don't think you know, Zach Taylor is ready for what's

503
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 5: about you know what he's doing with I mean, you

504
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 5: got three good you got three solids to good teams

505
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 5: in that division. Already, AJ Green's banged up. I mean,

506
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 5: he could miss half the season. That hasn't played more

507
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 5: than ten games in two of the last three years.

508
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 5: I don't I just don't think they have it at

509
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 5: their old lines already getting death and made it. I

510
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,959
Speaker 5: see no way that they exceed any type of expectation

511
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 5: this year. And then the Steers and Ravens are kind

512
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 5: of in the middle. Warren's probably a little bit more

513
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 5: bullish on the Ravens than I am. So they Harbor

514
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 5: promoted Greg Roman to OC wanted to just flip flop

515
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 5: him in Morning Wegg, but Morning Wegg wasn't with it,

516
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 5: so whatever he moved on.

517
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 2: Looking back at you know.

518
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,439
Speaker 5: Roman had Kaepernick, then he had Tyrod, so that they

519
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 5: they did have success as team as a team on

520
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,399
Speaker 5: some levels. You know in San Francisco, they didn't have

521
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 5: it as much in Buffalo. But if you look at

522
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 5: the quarterbacks specifically, in their numbers, like the efficiency regressed

523
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 5: year one to year two. So I worry that, you know, yeah,

524
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 5: I think they will throw a little more Lamar Jackson,

525
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 5: but I just worry that it's really like having Greg

526
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 5: Roman is just kind of kind of maximize the potential

527
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 5: drop off rather than necessarily lead to any improvement. And

528
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 5: one of the big reasons that I believe that when

529
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 5: Lamar Jackson took over, they played the Bengals, the Raiders,

530
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 5: the Falcons, the Chiefs, the Bucks, the Chargers, and the

531
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 5: Browns in the regular season. Every team but the Chargers

532
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 5: just near the bottom of the league in DVOA. On defense,

533
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 5: it's just some of the I mean you're talking Raiders,

534
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 5: you know, Falcons by that point in the year.

535
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:12,719
Speaker 2: I mean, these were bad defenses.

536
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 5: You know, Lamar Jackson kind of just got by throwing

537
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 5: the football in those situations. And I don't think it's

538
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 5: a positive that moment. Marky Brown has missed this much

539
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 5: practice time. You know, I like Miles Boykin as a prospect,

540
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:24,679
Speaker 5: but I don't think you want to have him as

541
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,880
Speaker 5: your your number one guy. I don't think Chris Moore

542
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 5: is a star, like is a starting caliber receiver in

543
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 5: this league, and I don't know if Willie Sneed truly

544
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 5: is a starting caliber slot receiver or should be any

545
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 5: higher than like last on the pecking order of among

546
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 5: your five options if he is out there playing every snap.

547
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 5: So I think that I am a little bit concerned

548
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 5: about the Baltimore Ravens. Then of course they're gonna rely

549
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 5: on a guy who's you know, thirty for a large

550
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,959
Speaker 5: workload in mark Ingram. So I think there are some

551
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 5: concerns with the Ravens. And then the Steelers. I mean,

552
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,439
Speaker 5: I think Ben Roethlisberger, his accuracy is declining.

553
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 2: It's going to be difficult.

554
00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 5: But you know, the Steelers, they know how to play

555
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 5: football in the sense that they're not afraid to throw

556
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 5: the ball. Even with ab God, I don't think they'll

557
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 5: be afraid. So I think they'll win some games that

558
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 5: just based on the fact that they are aggressive and

559
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 5: they tend to have a decent home field advantage and whatnot.

560
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 5: But to me, it's like the Ravens and Steelers are

561
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 5: kind of in that eight and eight ish range. Brown's

562
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 5: probably easily double digit wins in my opinion, and the

563
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 5: Bengals just bottom of the lead.

564
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 1: The bet that I'm most interested in, at least to

565
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 1: the downside. Here is the Bengals under and I know

566
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 1: Warren said that he was a little uncertain about it.

567
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 1: You can get it a plus money right now, under

568
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: five and a half, and I just I love that

569
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: because I do think that this is a tough division.

570
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 1: The Bengals have three strong opponents. The Steelers have continuity

571
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 1: with Roethlisberger at quarterback and continuity at the coaching staff.

572
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 1: The Ravens have continuity in the coaching staff, and the

573
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 1: Browns I think are just poised to explode. The Bengals,

574
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 1: I mean, Raybon, you mentioned this. Their offensive line is

575
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 1: already decimated. I believe Bowling retired right and Jonah Williams,

576
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 1: their first rounder, is injured for the season. Aj Green,

577
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,400
Speaker 1: who knows what we can't expect out of him, He's

578
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 1: aging and injured. John Ross has really been a dud

579
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 1: to this point, and he's dealing with hamstring issues. This

580
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 1: is just a situation for me that I'm really looking

581
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 1: to fade. Warren, I would like some more thoughts if

582
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 1: you have any on the Bengals under five and a

583
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 1: half at plus money. Would that tempt you at all?

584
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 4: Well, if you look at their schedule, you know, that's

585
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 4: the that's kind of the biggest thing that I you know,

586
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 4: was was denoting that I have concerns with. And if

587
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 4: you look at that how it opens. I mean, you're

588
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:42,120
Speaker 4: playing on the road in Seattle week one, and out

589
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 4: of your first you know, month and a half of games,

590
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 4: you have to play a road game in Pittsburgh on

591
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 4: Monday Night football. You have to play in Baltimore, you

592
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 4: have to play in Buffalo. All those teams have good defenses,

593
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 4: right and if we're talking about the offensive line having

594
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 4: issues and some question mark as to how quick you know,

595
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 4: how quickly Zach Taylor will pick things up as a

596
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 4: play caller, working with the polite pieces that he has

597
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:08,400
Speaker 4: and potentially not having aj Green, all those things are concerned.

598
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 4: You factor in the home games they get. They're against

599
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 4: the forty nine Ers, the Arizona Cardinals, and the Jacksonville

600
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 4: Jaguars for the first seven weeks.

601
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 3: Those are the only three home games to get.

602
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,159
Speaker 4: What do we know about all three of those teams

603
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,400
Speaker 4: new quarterbacks from last year, Those teams should all be

604
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 4: better than what they were last year. When you talk

605
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 4: about the forty nine Ers with Garoppolo, Kyler Murray is

606
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 4: with Arizona, and Nick Foles is with Jacksonville. Plus then

607
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,360
Speaker 4: they have to go to London week eight. I mean,

608
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,199
Speaker 4: that is a brutal first eight games of the season

609
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 4: before their bye week. And typically you know teams that

610
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 4: are whether they're demolished with injuries or just kind of

611
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 4: like down on their luck they're not having a good season,

612
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 4: don't come out of the bye week and go gangbusters

613
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 4: down the stretch. Right, they do have a game against

614
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 4: the Dolphins. If Raybun doesn't like the Jets so much,

615
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 4: they do get to host the Jets week thirteen. But

616
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 4: it is a tough slate to try to pick out

617
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 4: what games we think that they've got a good shot

618
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 4: at winning. And of course, when the lines makers set

619
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 4: their initial lines on the Bengals, they only had them

620
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 4: favorite in two games. Now that's through week sixteen. A

621
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 4: week seventeen, they're playing the brown So unless the Browns

622
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 4: are sitting everybody, they're not going to be favorite that

623
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 4: game either. So only two games that they were projected

624
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 4: to be favorites this year. So hitting you know, that

625
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 4: six win mark I think is a little bit high

626
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 4: based on what I've season. You know, I was a

627
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 4: little bit more neutral on them prior to the preseason.

628
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 4: But with all the injuries starting to pile up of

629
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 4: the line, like Chris mentioned, and you mentioned Matt and

630
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 4: then the injuries to A J.

631
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 3: Green, it's just.

632
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 4: There's less and less reasons for optimism in Cincinnati.

633
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 5: We spent way too much team time on the Bengals.

634
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 5: Everyone out there, they're going to stink Betty under.

635
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Okay, let's talk about the AFC south Man.

636
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: I mean with this, I feel like this conversation begins

637
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 1: and ends in some way with Andrew Luck, his potential

638
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 1: health or his unhealthiness entering the season. And then you

639
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: have the Texans, the Jazz, in the Titans. There's a

640
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 1: lot to talk about in this conference. To Warren, what

641
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 1: are your thoughts?

642
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 4: First, I want to go buy the teams that we

643
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 4: don't know enough about. Because we know enough about some

644
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 4: of these teams, I think to be off of them.

645
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 4: And then the Colts, which is a team that I

646
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 4: had the most optimism for. We don't really know what

647
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 4: is the health status with Andrew Luck. So if you

648
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 4: look at some of these other teams, like the team

649
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 4: that won the Division. Last year was the Houston Texans,

650
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 4: and they played the easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks that

651
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 4: I've recorded in any of the last four years. I

652
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 4: wrote an article up at charp football analysis dot com.

653
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 4: They played just two quarterbacks who finished above average and

654
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 4: success rate, nine backups and rookies that they played just

655
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 4: an overall easy schedule. All those statistics are going to

656
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 4: make your pass defense look solid. And when we saw

657
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 4: this team go into the postseason, it was an easy

658
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 4: fade for me. When I got to take the Colts

659
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 4: against the Texans, even though the game was in Houston,

660
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 4: fade the Texans take the Colts money in the bank.

661
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 3: The game was not close.

662
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 4: And this upcoming season, it's night and day in terms

663
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 4: of who this team is going to face. They go

664
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 4: from the easiest schedule in the league to what I'm

665
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 4: projecting as the most difficult schedule in the league. You

666
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 4: look at all the great quarterbacks that they're going to face.

667
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 4: I won't take up your time rattling off the terrible

668
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 4: backups that they played.

669
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 3: Last year.

670
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 4: It was ridiculous that a team could actually face these guys.

671
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 4: But this year they have to play guys like Drew Brees,

672
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers. They played Brady last year, Matt Ryan,

673
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 4: cam Newton, Jamis Winston, like all those guys, say what

674
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 4: you will. They had above average success rates last year

675
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 4: and in most cases above average yards per attempt and

676
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 4: passer ratings. They don't play unless these guys get injured.

677
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 4: It's just going to be difficult. So I think the

678
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 4: jumping class for them is going to be challenged. That said,

679
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 4: from a fantasy perspective, I'm high on what and Sean

680
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 4: Watson's going to do this year. They got some skillful

681
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 4: receivers there. I really like their passing attack. Now they

682
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 4: introduce right they made the trade with the Cleveland Browns.

683
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 4: They got a nice running back in there that I'm

684
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 4: more optimistic on than the Many guys are to receive

685
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,600
Speaker 4: the ball out of the backfield to help augment the

686
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 4: bad line, but I'm still worried about that pass protection.

687
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 4: I'm not buying the Tennessee Titans primarily because of the

688
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 4: quarterback situation. I think the rest of the team is solid, Like,

689
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 4: the defense is fine. The run game obviously with Derrick Henry,

690
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 4: like will he hold up to the workload? Maybe he will,

691
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 4: and so maybe they will be okay on the ground

692
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 4: running the football, But I just have concerns as to

693
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 4: you know, this team is playing, they say they want

694
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 4: to run the football. I know that they're getting back

695
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 4: the Lady Walker. They're going to have a better situation

696
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 4: from a health perspective, hopefully, But I didn't like what

697
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 4: I heard out of camp from Arthur Smith about his

698
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 4: strategy as the new offensive coordinator this season. And they

699
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 4: play the second or third most difficult schedule of opposing

700
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 4: run defenses this year, so that's going to be tough

701
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 4: for a team that wants to run the football a lot.

702
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 4: In the last but not least, you know, I don't

703
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 4: know what to make really of the Jacksonville Jaguars. I

704
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 4: don't have a strong take on them either way. I

705
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 4: think that it definitely helps to get a better quarterback

706
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 4: in there, so.

707
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 3: That could help lift the team up.

708
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 4: But I'm in some ways not really sold on Nick

709
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 4: Foles and John de Philippo working well together with totally

710
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 4: different pieces in a different city. They worked well together

711
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 4: for a little bits of time in Philadelphia, but that

712
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 4: was with a different head coach overall, a different philosophy

713
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 4: and a different you know set of skill players around them.

714
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 4: I'm not so sure how much that's going to work

715
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 4: down in Jacksonville. But I don't think I'm high or

716
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 4: low on them. I'm just pretty much neutral, all right.

717
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 1: Ravon Last year it was kind of a staple for

718
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 1: us to go back and forth debating the Colts and

719
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 1: the Texans. What are your thoughts on this division, especially

720
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 1: those two top teams.

721
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, so.

722
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 5: I think the Colts, I mean, I'm right with with

723
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 5: I think, you know everybody. It seems like that I'm

724
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 5: extremely high on a coat or I was, I guess

725
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 5: you could say, But I don't know what's going on

726
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 5: with Andrew Luck. It's not comforting that they're saying he's

727
00:33:56,880 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 5: dealing with an injury since March that hasn't healed. Then

728
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 5: they're kind of giving quotes and being vague, and it's

729
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 5: just kind of concerning, you know, It's like, why would

730
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 5: they be forthcoming if if he was not not well

731
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 5: or going to miss some time. That being said, huge

732
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 5: fan of their organization as a whole. Frank Reich, Matt

733
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 5: Eberflus on defense and so I think an underrated thing

734
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:21,280
Speaker 5: about the cult is that two years ago Jacoby Brissett

735
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 5: was able to get a full entire year of NFL

736
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 5: experience starting as the quarterback. Now it was a bad team,

737
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 5: then the new regime came over, and you know, they

738
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:33,360
Speaker 5: started out slow but turned it around extremely quickly. I

739
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:36,760
Speaker 5: think there's a reason to believe that with Jacoby Brissett

740
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 5: in that having been now been in this system with

741
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 5: Frank Reich behind Andrew Luck, you know, he's getting that

742
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 5: same experience kind of in terms of what they're bringing

743
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 5: to the organization. So I think if they have to

744
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 5: go out there now with Jacoby Brissett instead of Luck,

745
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 5: given how high we were before on them, I think

746
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 5: it would be foolish.

747
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:53,919
Speaker 2: To kind of back out.

748
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 5: I think from an odds perspective, the way you want

749
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 5: to play it is right now in my opinion, and

750
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 5: I do agree that the Textants have a tough ski sedule,

751
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 5: but it's really just this division has a tough schedule.

752
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 2: If they're in this division, your schedule is difficult.

753
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 5: If you got about the Textans in my opinion right now,

754
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 5: because their odds are still the markets really haven't adjusted

755
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 5: to Luck yet, so you're still getting the Texans three

756
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:14,319
Speaker 5: hundred to win the division plus one forty six to

757
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 5: make the playoffs. You know, I like the plus three

758
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 5: hundred to win the division. I think they have a

759
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 5: better shot than that, even if Andrew ruck is healthy.

760
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 5: I mean, these I just think that they're a very

761
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 5: good team. Deshaun Watson has continuously been near the top

762
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 5: of the league in yards per attempt the the you know,

763
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 5: I think the OI will be better.

764
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 2: This might be the first time he gets to play

765
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 2: with healthy receivers.

766
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 5: So I think right now plus three hundred, I'm taking

767
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,799
Speaker 5: the Texans to win that division. Now, if Andrew Luck

768
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 5: is announced out, I think those odds.

769
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 2: May eventually flip.

770
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 5: I think the Texas may eventually become the favorite for

771
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 5: that division or in the odds will change. That's when

772
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 5: you want to beat the Colts because I think that

773
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 5: they'll have a lot more success with verssett this go

774
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,800
Speaker 5: around under this coaching staff than they did last time.

775
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 1: All Right, Warren, the Colts right now have the win

776
00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 1: total of nine and a half. If Luck is out

777
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 1: or it seems like he's going to miss some time,

778
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 1: where do you think that number drops to.

779
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:09,280
Speaker 4: Well, it really depends on you know, what that projection

780
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 4: is and what we've seen unfortunately from the Colts in

781
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 4: the past. I mean, this is like Chris mentioned, this

782
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 4: is what I would do if I was running that ship.

783
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 4: But it's not going to help sports betters out very much.

784
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 3: You're going to be completely vague. You know.

785
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 4: It was like a week before or two weeks before

786
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 4: the week one back in what was a twenty seventeen

787
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,840
Speaker 4: before we even knew that Andrew Luck wasn't going to play.

788
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 4: So I have no confidence that they're going to be

789
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 4: forthcoming and with what the actual prognosis is for how

790
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 4: much time he's going to miss, that will help odds

791
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 4: makers or betters enough. So I think the odds makers

792
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:48,479
Speaker 4: probably will just react by balancing the money as best

793
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 4: they can. I mean, you either take it down and

794
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 4: repost at a lower number, or you just let some

795
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 4: of the bets come in and just keep over, you know,

796
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 4: slightly over adjusting it so where it settles becomes what's

797
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,800
Speaker 4: the app tight for the under money from sharp betters.

798
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 4: But Chris made a good point, right now is not

799
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,720
Speaker 4: a great time to bet any overs on the Colts. Obviously,

800
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 4: take Andrew Luck's situation aside.

801
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 3: The Colts were.

802
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 4: Really hot team early this preseason for a variety of

803
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:18,760
Speaker 4: reasons that are all I agree with and bet towards

804
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 4: the over. So betting them over now is not good.

805
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:24,760
Speaker 4: Betting them under now is good. But where this ultimately settles,

806
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 4: I think it's tough to forecast. A different question is

807
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 4: how many games would they actually win if Andrew Luck,

808
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:32,839
Speaker 4: let's say, didn't play at all this year or only

809
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 4: played half the season. And we all, all three of us,

810
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:38,319
Speaker 4: know how valuable Andrew Luck is to the line. And

811
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 4: I agree with Chris Indianapolis Colts what was at in

812
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:43,720
Speaker 4: the twenty seventeen season, Jacoby Brissett.

813
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:45,760
Speaker 3: They actually actually led them to Leeds.

814
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 4: I think in nine of their sixteen games entering the

815
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 4: fourth quarter. I did a whole study on that, and

816
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 4: the Colts like reviewed that too, so they knew that

817
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 4: that was something that was going on and some of

818
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 4: the play calling and decision making in those fourth quarters

819
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 4: was and I trust their current head coach a lot

820
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 4: more than I did their last one to make the

821
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 4: right decisions. So the issue is like, when are you

822
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 4: going to get that value? They would have to like

823
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 4: take it off the board, repost it at a much

824
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:15,360
Speaker 4: lower number, continue to take some public under money, thinking

825
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 4: Brissett sucks, then you would find some more value in

826
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 4: backing the Cults over. That's probably the only time I

827
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 4: would think that you would want to make a bet

828
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 4: on one of the overs for their futures, unless that

829
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:27,280
Speaker 4: scenario occurred.

830
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 1: All right, really interesting there for me. The one bet

831
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 1: I really like is Titans under Maybe I'm too pessimistic

832
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,280
Speaker 1: on this. I just can't see them winning eight games,

833
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: in part because I do think highly of the Colts,

834
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,320
Speaker 1: the Texans, and the Jags. You know, they have a

835
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,760
Speaker 1: tough defense and they could be significantly better this year

836
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 1: with a new quarterback. But the Titans, it seems like

837
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 1: just kind of rolling back the same version of what

838
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 1: they did last year, except now they have more of

839
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 1: an inexperienced play caller. Really just kind of hard to

840
00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:01,840
Speaker 1: see for me a path to five hundred. Ravon, do

841
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 1: you have any thoughts on the Titans or the Drags?

842
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 1: He didn't mention them yet.

843
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,839
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the Jaguars are clearly the better of

844
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:12,319
Speaker 5: those two teams. So here's where kind of understanding the

845
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 5: coaching comes into play. Right, last season, when the Jaguars,

846
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,439
Speaker 5: you gain even a yard on first down, even a yard,

847
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:22,880
Speaker 5: it give me second and nine. They run over fifty

848
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 5: percent of the time on second down. They're one of

849
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 5: the most predictable teams in the league. Leonard Fournette he

850
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:31,720
Speaker 5: didn't even crack three yards of carry on second down.

851
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 5: I mean, it was just bad because they were unpredictable.

852
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 2: John d. Filippo, he gets fired for essentially.

853
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 5: Doing the right thing in Minnesota, which was the Minnesota

854
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 5: was fourth And I'm getting this from sharp football stats

855
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,759
Speaker 5: great side by Warrens that you can kind of cut

856
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 5: up these splits really quickly.

857
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,080
Speaker 2: I just did it on the fire right now.

858
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 5: But fourth in the league in pass rate in those

859
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 5: same situations. Mike Zimmer just wasn't happy with it, but

860
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 5: deep Philippo understood that that they had a what he

861
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 5: was working with.

862
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 2: Their line wasn't good.

863
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,800
Speaker 5: They couldn't just run, you know, with Dalvin Cooker Roatavius

864
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,359
Speaker 5: Murray into a wall on second and long ward at time.

865
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 5: So it's either you pass on first down to get

866
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,920
Speaker 5: ahead of the chains, or you know, you pass when

867
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:11,720
Speaker 5: you're behind the sticks.

868
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:13,399
Speaker 2: So I think warn't allooded to it too.

869
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:15,719
Speaker 5: It's like Arthur Smith, I don't think he is going

870
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 5: to do that because they had success down the stretch

871
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,680
Speaker 5: doing the opposite, you know, right there with the Jaguars,

872
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 5: they passed only forty three percent of the time if

873
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 5: they gained even one yard on first out.

874
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 2: So it's just.

875
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 5: Absurd because rushing is obviously less efficient than passing in

876
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 5: the NFL, and I think the Titans are going to

877
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 5: get caught up in that trap, whereas the Jaguars. Let's

878
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 5: remember Foles has worked together Withney Filippo before. Foles has

879
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 5: worked with what who's going to be a major part

880
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 5: of their offense now in Chris Conley. Dede Westbrook played

881
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 5: ninety percent of his slot snaps in the slot, was

882
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 5: highly effective in that role.

883
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 2: Talented playwright.

884
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 5: And now if you kind of the play call gets

885
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 5: better now Leonard Fournette actually becomes a weapon again. You know,

886
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 5: I think it's kind of we're overly down on Fournette

887
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:57,880
Speaker 5: because of some ugly yard per carrier numbers, But at

888
00:40:57,920 --> 00:40:59,839
Speaker 5: the same time, then we go and turn around and say, hey,

889
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 5: yard per carry regresses to the means that so it's

890
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 5: like you can't have it both ways. The bottom line

891
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 5: is he's a talented player and they use them horribly

892
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 5: last year, and they admitted we said they were hiding Blake.

893
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 2: Bortles because he would turn the ball over.

894
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 5: Nick Foles rarely has turned the ball over, especially in

895
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:15,840
Speaker 5: the regular season over these past few years. So I

896
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 5: think you could see kind of a and with that defense,

897
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 5: I think you could see a team that can do

898
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 5: just enough on offense that I that I think that

899
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 5: there is a little bit of value. I'm betting there

900
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 5: they're over eight because you can still push at eight,

901
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 5: and I think if they have to match up with

902
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 5: the Titans that this, you know they'll beat them.

903
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 2: High on the Jags along on the Titans.

904
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 1: All right, the AFC West, we have the Chiefs at

905
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 1: the top, we have the Chargers, I think a very

906
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:41,360
Speaker 1: strong number two team in that division, and then we

907
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 1: have the Broncos and the Raiders. I don't want to

908
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 1: say total dumpster fires, but that argument could be made

909
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:50,840
Speaker 1: if someone wanted to make it. Warren, the Chiefs and

910
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 1: the Chargers this division in general, what are your thoughts

911
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 1: this division?

912
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 4: I've got probably the least conviction out of any of

913
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 4: the foreign af I think there's not a ton of

914
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 4: value on the futures market for any of these teams.

915
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 4: But I will say that I do like, you know,

916
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 4: who's not going to like the Chiefs. I think it

917
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 4: stems from the quarterback and play caller and Andy Reid

918
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:15,319
Speaker 4: and Patrick Mahons. I think that those guys are two

919
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:18,280
Speaker 4: of the very best in their profession at the respective trades.

920
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 4: And it's hard not to like what the Chiefs have

921
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 4: tried to do defensively.

922
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 3: To get a little bit better.

923
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 4: We didn't know for a while if Tyreek Hill was

924
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 4: going to be here, and Tyreek Hill is here, as

925
00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 4: is Mikole Hardman, so you know, just the speed that

926
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 4: they've got offensively. I know there's some running back questions

927
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 4: and Damian Williams.

928
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:39,320
Speaker 3: That's not ideal because.

929
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 4: I don't have a lot of belief in some of

930
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 4: the things that Carlos Tied has done around the league,

931
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:45,879
Speaker 4: and the statistic that he put up regardless of where

932
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:49,400
Speaker 4: he's been playing, have been bested by the other backs

933
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 4: on those rosters. So I really don't love his upside,

934
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 4: just as what he's going to be able to contribute

935
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 4: to this offense, it's hard not to like what they've done.

936
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 4: And then you know, like you said, the Chargers a

937
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:03,720
Speaker 4: really good number two team. I think you can play

938
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 4: off the fact that some less experienced betters might be

939
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 4: scared off of them because of the Melvin Gordon situation,

940
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:13,320
Speaker 4: and as that holdout continues towards the start of the season,

941
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:15,359
Speaker 4: that's a time where maybe some more of those guys

942
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 4: get involved and would bet the under there, and you

943
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 4: could take advantage of that if the odds get even

944
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:22,400
Speaker 4: whacked out a little bit more out of where they

945
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 4: should be, because I think all of us realize the

946
00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 4: value of running backs and the production they get from Austin,

947
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:31,800
Speaker 4: Eckler and Jackson some of the other guys is probably

948
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:33,399
Speaker 4: not going to be that much of a drop off

949
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 4: from Melvin Gordon. I would like it if Philip Rivers

950
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 4: would sneak the ball once in a while and get

951
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 4: some upside there on short yardage plays.

952
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 3: But overall, it's a very good.

953
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:46,760
Speaker 4: Team that I think has a legitimate shot. The problem

954
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:48,720
Speaker 4: is that you know, they need to be able to

955
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:52,319
Speaker 4: get enough distance on the Kansas City Chiefs to be

956
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 4: able to make something like that happen, and then last,

957
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 4: but not least, I mean the Broncos and the Raiders.

958
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 4: Yet I'm not a Joe Flacco fan. I've made that

959
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 4: pretty obvious. He has a big arm, but he doesn't

960
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 4: use it well. Like his deep passing accuracy is very poor.

961
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 4: His short range accuracy is not ideal either. I don't

962
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 4: love the fact that you're dealing with injuries at the

963
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 4: wide receiver position. I mean to rely on a lot

964
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 4: of young guys, and I mean the Raiders, I just

965
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 4: am off of them. I'm not even worrying about going

966
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 4: over or under. I think I'm just going to watch

967
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 4: the circus show for what they're going to do the

968
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 4: rest of this preseason.

969
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 1: All right, Raybon, how are you approaching the AMC West.

970
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 2: Kansas City over wind total? Immediately?

971
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 5: Andy Reid six and zero with the Chiefs over the

972
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 5: wind total in Philadelphia fourteen years, nine times over the

973
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 5: wind total.

974
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 2: The Chiefs are just playing at such a high level.

975
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 5: I mean, really, they should have been in the Super

976
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 5: Bowl if we're being serious, and I think then we're

977
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 5: looking at it a lot different like it's it's the

978
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 5: wind total.

979
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 2: It's ten in a lot of places.

980
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:53,840
Speaker 5: I mean, that is that is And I vehemiently dislike

981
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:56,359
Speaker 5: betting overs on double digits or really anything kind of

982
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 5: You have to be good for me to bet the

983
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:01,799
Speaker 5: over when you're already about five hundred because there is

984
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:04,840
Speaker 5: just so much regression and unpredictability in the NFL and whatnot.

985
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 5: The Kansas City Chiefs, I mean, even a guy like

986
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 5: Carlos Hyde, so you know, he's one fourteenth of one

987
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:13,000
Speaker 5: to fifteen running backs since he came into the league

988
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 5: in yards per target, you know, catching the ball.

989
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 2: Not a good pass catcher. But you kind of look at.

990
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 5: Even why they would bring a guy in like that

991
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 5: in the first place, and it just so happens that

992
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 5: they're kind of making some changes along the old line

993
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 5: and they have some guys that are a little stronger

994
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:28,759
Speaker 5: there and not as athletics, so they can they can

995
00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 5: run some more power at times. And when they do that,

996
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:33,279
Speaker 5: that's where Hyde kind of excelf He is a lot

997
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:35,400
Speaker 5: better if you look at his career numbers running the

998
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 5: ball from under center than the shotgun. When they're in

999
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 5: the shotgun, it's still going to be Damian Williams. Damian

1000
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 5: Williams excels out of the shotgun. He excels catching the

1001
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 5: ball and running routes, and he can even you can

1002
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,080
Speaker 5: even do some things where he split him out out

1003
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 5: wide and kind of running back into the backfield and

1004
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 5: see what the defense is doing. So everyone there is

1005
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:54,400
Speaker 5: going to be there for a purpose and they're maximum

1006
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 5: They're going to maximize the value of their players. And

1007
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 5: I think the defense has some upside considering they usually

1008
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 5: have they have one of the best home field advantages

1009
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 5: in the league. And then you kind of add some

1010
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:05,120
Speaker 5: pieces like you know at Tyron Matthew and a Frank

1011
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,360
Speaker 5: Clark and you know, yeah, could some teams score some

1012
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 5: points on them or will turn into shootout shore. But

1013
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:12,799
Speaker 5: I think the defense could be better than last year.

1014
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 5: You know, they got they got rid of Bob Sutton

1015
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 5: who played really poor defense, a kind of an underrated

1016
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 5: factor in then glowing that game to the Patriots after

1017
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 5: you know, Dfourd jumped off sides just terrible, you know,

1018
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 5: wetting Jan Aedham and go right down the middle. So

1019
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 5: I think the Chiefs easy bet for me, even to

1020
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:29,359
Speaker 5: win the division. I mean, I think the I think

1021
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:31,320
Speaker 5: the over is the best bet here. But even to

1022
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 5: win the division, I think they have some They could

1023
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:36,040
Speaker 5: get some distance on the Charges because I mean, the

1024
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:37,959
Speaker 5: Chargers are clearly the second best team.

1025
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 2: Clearly the schedule hasn't even that bad.

1026
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 5: But I mean Keenan Allen he's he's had some injuries

1027
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 5: over these past few years. He you know, sometimes he

1028
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 5: stays healthy, but he's been prone to injury. If this

1029
00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 5: team moveses keenan Allen, I don't know how they passed

1030
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 5: the football. It's a totally different offense if you take

1031
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:53,799
Speaker 5: keenan ol out, because Mike wins is essentially a tight

1032
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 5: end out there, like he's Quincy and Nonwa. He's a

1033
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:59,840
Speaker 5: glorified Quincy and Nonwa who can actually catch touchdowns. Hunter Henry,

1034
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:02,000
Speaker 5: I mean, he's he's a certain type of receives, a

1035
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 5: very solid guy, but he's not George Kittle. He's not

1036
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:07,279
Speaker 5: a guy you're throwing to eighty five times for twelve

1037
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 5: hundred yards. It's just a slow offense that has like

1038
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:13,040
Speaker 5: four tight ends and three fullbacks. They're gonna they already

1039
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:14,839
Speaker 5: played some of the most heavy personnel in the league

1040
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:16,879
Speaker 5: last year, and that's why they their tempo is really slow.

1041
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:19,760
Speaker 5: They get when you're shuffling these Derek Wattson and Virgil

1042
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 5: Breedens in and out of the lineup on third down obviously,

1043
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 5: so you know, they're dangerously close to like they're really good,

1044
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 5: but they're dangerously close to just being this totally different

1045
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 5: team where they just be like this defensive team that

1046
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 5: the quarterback has no mobility. I mean, it could be

1047
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 5: bad if anything happens to Keenan Allen. So I'm not

1048
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 5: inclined to really bet over on them. And then Broncos,

1049
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 5: I think they got Joe Flacco. You know, also because

1050
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 5: of kind of what they're trying to do schematically, I

1051
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 5: think Rich Ganderillo is the oc is coming over from

1052
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 5: San Francisco, was a quarterbacks coach.

1053
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:55,719
Speaker 2: They are under Kyle Shanahan.

1054
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 5: So if you remember San Francisco is one of those

1055
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 5: teams that they run a lot of plays with the

1056
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 5: quarterback under center, they are not. You know, most teams

1057
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 5: operate out of the shotgun sixty percent of the time.

1058
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 5: That's not how they operate. And that's kind of what

1059
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 5: Scandrell is planning to do. And so you look at

1060
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:16,000
Speaker 5: then Joe Flacco, and he has been better, you know,

1061
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 5: throughout his career a half yard better in yards per

1062
00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 5: attempt under center than from the gun. So you're gonna

1063
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 5: kind of and last season he averaged seven point nine

1064
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:27,960
Speaker 5: yards per attempt under center, which by the way, is

1065
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 5: about a half yard more than Aaron Rodgers has averaged

1066
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 5: period over these last five years, but six point two

1067
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:36,279
Speaker 5: from the shotgun, so that's obviously what they're looking nowt

1068
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 5: Is it going to be a success?

1069
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:40,319
Speaker 2: That remains to be seen. I don't.

1070
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 5: I don't necessarily think that John Elway has made a

1071
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:45,360
Speaker 5: lot of good decisions personnel wise, but I understand why

1072
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 5: they I understand why they got Flacco, and I think

1073
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 5: they are at least are going to put him in

1074
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 5: like the best chance to be successful given his limitations.

1075
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:57,759
Speaker 2: So, you know, Denver, I think the number is fair.

1076
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 5: I think the real value here is again, it's just

1077
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:03,400
Speaker 5: the Kansas City Chiefs over ten wins. This should be

1078
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 5: the best team in the National Football League, and even

1079
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:07,600
Speaker 5: if their defense is bad, they should be able to

1080
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 5: outscore every other team they face.

1081
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 1: Rayvon, did you mention the Raiders there? I don't believe

1082
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 1: if you did, because if you did, I'm sure you

1083
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 1: would have said we need to pound the under because

1084
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 1: they're going to lose the first seven games of the

1085
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:24,200
Speaker 1: season and then after that they will just curl into

1086
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 1: the fetal position and tank the rest of their games.

1087
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:31,279
Speaker 1: As Antonio Brown walks away from the team and Derek

1088
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,319
Speaker 1: carrs bingched. What are your thoughts on under six wins

1089
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 1: for the Raiders.

1090
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, so the only thing that worries me

1091
00:49:37,800 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 5: is that, listen, you play the Broncos twice, and that's

1092
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 5: the thing with the Broncos. You now you don't know,

1093
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 5: like when you don't know what the Broncos like, that's

1094
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 5: the kind of team the Raiders beat. So if the Raiders,

1095
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 5: let's say the Raiders go to and zero against the Broncos.

1096
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 1: I mean, let's say they go one and one.

1097
00:49:53,719 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 5: To be Okay, okay, fine, Fine, you got Detroit who

1098
00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 5: you can beat. You got Cincinnati who you can beat.

1099
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:00,040
Speaker 5: You go to the Jets, which I think I I

1100
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 5: think you can beat. You host Tennessee, which I think

1101
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:05,360
Speaker 5: you can beat, and then you have you start the

1102
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,279
Speaker 5: year hosting Denver. You know, So okay, that's one. So

1103
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:09,799
Speaker 5: like there are ways for this team to kind of

1104
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:12,240
Speaker 5: get there. I think you said six and a half,

1105
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 5: probably a six win team probably still lean under. But

1106
00:50:15,520 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 5: I think I'm a lot more confident that with the

1107
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:19,680
Speaker 5: Chiefs like going over than I am with anything to

1108
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 5: do with the Raiders, because I mean, it's just so

1109
00:50:21,719 --> 00:50:23,120
Speaker 5: we don't know, like we don't know.

1110
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:26,040
Speaker 2: I will say this not a fan of Derek Carr.

1111
00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 5: Don't know if they're gonna be able to incorporate Tyro

1112
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 5: Williams into that offense very well, because he's a guy

1113
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 5: that doesn't get much separation, kind of goes down the field.

1114
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 5: So I mean it could explode in a hurry. But

1115
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 5: I mean they could also start the year one to

1116
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:39,120
Speaker 5: know because they host them so well.

1117
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:43,360
Speaker 1: I'd like your thoughts on not necessarily even just the

1118
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 1: Raiders here, but teams that have a really difficult first

1119
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 1: half of the season where you can pretty much predict

1120
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:53,360
Speaker 1: this team is going like this is the hard stretch

1121
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 1: of their season, and then maybe they have some games

1122
00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 1: they could win in the second half, but at that

1123
00:50:58,239 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 1: point they're a very different team. They're already thinking of

1124
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:03,719
Speaker 1: themselves as not a playoff team. They're a team that's

1125
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 1: preparing for next season. Have you thought about ways or

1126
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 1: have you kind of back tested some of this just

1127
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:13,400
Speaker 1: to see how it is that when the schedule breaks

1128
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 1: down at different points, how to approach that is someone

1129
00:51:16,960 --> 00:51:19,440
Speaker 1: who's betting or handicapping.

1130
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:22,759
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, there definitely are some things that you could

1131
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:25,839
Speaker 4: look at. I think the psyche of teams and understanding

1132
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:30,320
Speaker 4: kind of their mindset, their coaching staff's decision making is

1133
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,000
Speaker 4: very valuable. I think like if we look at this

1134
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 4: season over the first eight weeks, the New York Jets

1135
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:39,279
Speaker 4: are the team that certainly qualify for me to fall

1136
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 4: into that category.

1137
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:41,560
Speaker 3: They have the number.

1138
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 4: One most difficult schedule over the first eight weeks of

1139
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:47,279
Speaker 4: the season, and if you look at them over the

1140
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:50,760
Speaker 4: last half of the season, their schedule gets dramatically easier.

1141
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:54,239
Speaker 4: I mean over the first eight games, forget the home

1142
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:57,720
Speaker 4: game against Buffalo they've got which is Week one, hopefully

1143
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 4: they'll win that game. They've got Cleve Lend, the Patriots,

1144
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:05,560
Speaker 4: the Eagles, the Cowboys, the Patriots again, and then a

1145
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:08,239
Speaker 4: road game in Jacksonville against the Jaguars, team who we

1146
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 4: think could be a little bit better, that could really

1147
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:13,239
Speaker 4: be a disaster. And then that second half stretch and

1148
00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:16,440
Speaker 4: they play some games they certainly should win. They've got

1149
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 4: the Dolphins twice, the Redskins, the Giants, the Raiders, and

1150
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 4: the Bengals, who we were talking about as being a

1151
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 4: little bit lower on. So you know, that's what they

1152
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 4: get their next six weeks, right after facing that brutal schedule.

1153
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:31,319
Speaker 4: So that's a team the Oakland Raiders, as you kind

1154
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:35,399
Speaker 4: of mentioned, they've got based upon projected win totals, they've

1155
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:38,239
Speaker 4: got the second most difficult schedule over the first eight

1156
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 4: weeks of the season. You know, some teams that have

1157
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:44,200
Speaker 4: like more playoff aspirations that shouldn't have to deal with

1158
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 4: that so much would be like the Houston Texans and

1159
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:49,600
Speaker 4: the Cleveland Browns. Both of them have very difficult schedules

1160
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 4: over the first eight weeks, but they're better than average teams,

1161
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:55,920
Speaker 4: and they should be able to kind of like get

1162
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 4: by those without like going into full like you know,

1163
00:52:58,520 --> 00:53:01,200
Speaker 4: they have quarterbacks right going to go into situations where

1164
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:04,440
Speaker 4: we need quarterbacks, we need this, like, I don't think

1165
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 4: they'd be in that situation. And plus which at least

1166
00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:09,160
Speaker 4: for Bill O'Brien, you know, he's now he's in a

1167
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:11,720
Speaker 4: win now mode. When you look at like John Gruden

1168
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:15,080
Speaker 4: and Adam Gasee the two teams with the most difficult schedules,

1169
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:19,120
Speaker 4: they're kind of building for the future anyways, to some extent,

1170
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:21,160
Speaker 4: you want to maximize your ability to win during Sam

1171
00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 4: Darnold's rookie season. But I don't think anybody's thinking they're

1172
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:26,400
Speaker 4: gonna win the Super Bowl this year, So having some

1173
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:29,240
Speaker 4: nice draft picks in the future because they are terrible

1174
00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 4: this year wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

1175
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:33,839
Speaker 4: That said, I mean, Adam Gasee and Joe Douglas don't

1176
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:36,840
Speaker 4: think they're going to come in and like lose games intentionally,

1177
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:39,239
Speaker 4: But you're absolutely right. It is something to look at

1178
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:41,600
Speaker 4: and to consider when you're factoring it in, especially for

1179
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:44,719
Speaker 4: for some coaches that might have a little bit longer leash,

1180
00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:46,960
Speaker 4: be it they're in their first year or to something

1181
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:47,439
Speaker 4: like that.

1182
00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 1: All Right, this has been great warrant. One last question.

1183
00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:53,360
Speaker 1: Your favorite Super Bowl bet. It doesn't have to be

1184
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:56,400
Speaker 1: in the AFC. It could be AFC, NFC, anything you

1185
00:53:56,440 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 1: see on the board right now. Your favorite bet for

1186
00:53:59,000 --> 00:53:59,680
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl.

1187
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:02,840
Speaker 4: Well, I actually don't have like a singular bet that

1188
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:05,960
Speaker 4: I've made yet on a team to win the Super Bowl,

1189
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:08,000
Speaker 4: So I can't say, like out of my own bank

1190
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:09,719
Speaker 4: or what I've done. But what I will say from

1191
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:13,160
Speaker 4: a philosophical perspective is that if you look at the AFC,

1192
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 4: you're generally getting, you know, the teams that make it

1193
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:17,720
Speaker 4: to the AFC or the tend to be the favorites,

1194
00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:19,960
Speaker 4: whereas the NFC three out of the last four years,

1195
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:23,160
Speaker 4: the team to win the NFC was lined between twenty

1196
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:26,080
Speaker 4: to one and forty to one over the last three

1197
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:27,839
Speaker 4: out of the last four years. I mean, those are

1198
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:31,360
Speaker 4: tremendous odds just to win the NFC, which basically says that, like,

1199
00:54:31,400 --> 00:54:33,879
Speaker 4: we don't have a powerhouse in the NFC. So if

1200
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:36,239
Speaker 4: you want to look at like some teams that might

1201
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:39,319
Speaker 4: have the ability to win as a longer shot, I

1202
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:41,920
Speaker 4: would be looking in the NFC. And then the one

1203
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:43,560
Speaker 4: thing that you're going to want to focus on is,

1204
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:47,959
Speaker 4: you know, if you want like a reasonable opportunity, which

1205
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:50,359
Speaker 4: team is likely to get a first round by. That's

1206
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 4: always a beneficial philosophy to look at. And I'm going

1207
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 4: to look at the Philadelphia Eagles. Now they're not the

1208
00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 4: long shot we're talking about here, but that team certainly

1209
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:01,040
Speaker 4: right now, I think it's the the Rams and the

1210
00:55:01,080 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 4: Saints are projected to win the one and two seed,

1211
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:06,840
Speaker 4: but they are a team who could easily with their schedule,

1212
00:55:07,000 --> 00:55:08,840
Speaker 4: which I project as I think it is like the

1213
00:55:08,880 --> 00:55:12,080
Speaker 4: third easiest in the NFL, get a first round by

1214
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 4: and have the edge towards you know, being able to

1215
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:17,360
Speaker 4: make it to the Super Bowl, which is very important.

1216
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:19,840
Speaker 4: If you want like the longer shot type of a team,

1217
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:22,000
Speaker 4: you're gonna want to look at these teams where the

1218
00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:24,080
Speaker 4: divisions are very up in the air. I would say,

1219
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:26,919
Speaker 4: like the NFC North and the NFC South are two

1220
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:29,759
Speaker 4: teams where they've two divisions where you've got kind of

1221
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 4: cases to be made for three out of those four teams,

1222
00:55:32,320 --> 00:55:35,279
Speaker 4: which inherently is going to lower their odds overall to

1223
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:36,839
Speaker 4: win the Super Bowl, and so you might be able

1224
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:38,880
Speaker 4: to find some value there. But in terms of like

1225
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 4: one singular team, unfortunately I haven't isolated one specific one more.

1226
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:43,960
Speaker 3: Have I done anything yet?

1227
00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:46,799
Speaker 1: All right, Warren? What content should people check out at

1228
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:49,440
Speaker 1: Sharp Football Analysis and Sharp Football Stats.

1229
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:52,360
Speaker 4: Well, we've got a few new writers on board for

1230
00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 4: sharp football analysis dot Com writing up a lot of

1231
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:58,440
Speaker 4: great content and transferring over to one of your guys. Oh,

1232
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 4: buddy's Rich Riebar been providing us with some fantasy content

1233
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:05,359
Speaker 4: as well. So there's a lot of good information there

1234
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:08,040
Speaker 4: just to read up on. Most of it's free. And

1235
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:10,680
Speaker 4: then at Sharp Football Stats, I mean, as Chris mentioned,

1236
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:14,319
Speaker 4: that's just for research, a free research site. Guys put

1237
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:17,560
Speaker 4: up a ton of different visualizations and update them every

1238
00:56:17,560 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 4: single Sunday night after the games are played, so that

1239
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:23,439
Speaker 4: people can kind of visualize some data and filter things

1240
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:25,200
Speaker 4: and cut them up the way that you guys want to.

1241
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 4: So definitely happy with both of those right now, but

1242
00:56:28,719 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 4: always continuing to look to get better and provide more

1243
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:34,359
Speaker 4: value to the marketplace, all right.

1244
00:56:34,400 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 1: Be sure to follow Warren on Twitter at Sharp Football Warren,

1245
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:40,440
Speaker 1: thank you so much for being on the show. You

1246
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:43,000
Speaker 1: can follow Chris and me in the Action Network app

1247
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:45,279
Speaker 1: at Chris Raybond and Mattthew Orkle. Use the app to

1248
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 1: get real time odds and tracker bets for free. That

1249
00:56:48,120 --> 00:56:49,839
Speaker 1: is going to do it for this episode of the

1250
00:56:49,880 --> 00:56:53,280
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast. Please subscribe to and rate and review

1251
00:56:53,320 --> 00:56:56,440
Speaker 1: the show on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

1252
00:56:56,600 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 1: See you again next episode. AST