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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Prisner.

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Speaker 2: You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories,

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Speaker 2: making news and moving markets in the APAC region. You

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Speaker 2: can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcast

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Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app. Let's get to Lorraine Tan. She is

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Speaker 2: our guest. Lorraine is director of Asia Equity Resesearch at

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Speaker 2: Morning Stars. She joins us from the line city of Singapore.

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Speaker 2: Lorraine is the reaction that we're seeing across equity markets

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Speaker 2: in the APAC solely due to this weak print on

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Speaker 2: US jobs in the worry that the FED maybe behind

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Speaker 2: the curve.

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Speaker 3: Yes, certainly for the most part.

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Speaker 4: I think the raises the risks that earn that the

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Speaker 4: economy is going to be slower than expected. The slowgun

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Speaker 4: down could be steeper, and that hurts earnings we've got

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Speaker 4: obviously in the Japan market, the situation with the en

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Speaker 4: rising and offsetting share market gains as well in US

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Speaker 4: dollar terms, So those are two distinct I think factors

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Speaker 4: at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Lareen, what about what we're also seeing in terms of

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Speaker 1: this unwinding across assets traders a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: when we saw that short squeeze, we're also reconsidering their

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Speaker 1: leverage bits. Is this what you're also seeing in terms

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Speaker 1: of the pool out from stocks across the region.

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Speaker 4: Actually, we started seeing a little bit of a defensive

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Speaker 4: switch starting in the second quarter. The sector that I

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Speaker 4: performed with the utilities, I think a lot of there

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Speaker 4: was some switching at that point into the yield place

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Speaker 4: the expectation that regarding that the FED was going to

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Speaker 4: cut anyway, So we did see technology as a whole

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Speaker 4: sort of not really outperformer was flat roughly in the

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Speaker 4: second quarter, except maybe for a couple of key names

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Speaker 4: like TSMC Media Tech. Really the AI plays was driving

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Speaker 4: that higher. So I think if you're talking about some

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Speaker 4: of the defensiveness, yes, I think people want to lock

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Speaker 4: in their gains, and I think this is going to

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Speaker 4: this behavior probably continue for a little for a little while.

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Speaker 2: So if you expect the behavior to continue for a

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Speaker 2: while longer, I wouldn't imagine that you employ a buy

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Speaker 2: the dip strategy at this point, right, I mean, it

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Speaker 2: was only a short while ago we had the nie

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Speaker 2: k above forty thousand, we're at around thirty three thousand

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Speaker 2: at the moment.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we've got to let things.

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Speaker 4: I think the tendencies you want to have things settle

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Speaker 4: down a bit. But where if we really don't know

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Speaker 4: where it's going to bottom, let's say that's difficult to tell.

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Speaker 3: We'll be much more focused on where we see value.

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Speaker 4: And obviously, you know, we take these as opportunities to

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Speaker 4: pick up names that we like as they when they

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Speaker 4: come down. So, yes, there were a lot of names

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Speaker 4: that were particularly in Japan, that were getting slightly expensive.

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Speaker 4: There were laggards obviously. I think there's still factory automation

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Speaker 4: names in Japan. There are good proxies to China recovery

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Speaker 4: without the geopolitic issues. So I think those are some

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Speaker 4: namings that we like as they come down. I think

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Speaker 4: the Japanese banks are something that we'd want to look

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Speaker 4: at for the longer term, because you know, with interest

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Speaker 4: rates moving a little bit up in Japan, we think

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Speaker 4: that the upside to ROI is still there for the

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Speaker 4: banks in Japan.

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Speaker 1: Just picking up on your point on the banks, though

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Speaker 1: they were among the sectors that were the worst hit

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Speaker 1: late last week, so it makes you wonder, you know,

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Speaker 1: even if their profitability might be boosted with these rate hikes,

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Speaker 1: do those concerns broadly about the Japanese economy being able

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Speaker 1: to outstand BOJ rate hikes kind of overshadow the outlook

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Speaker 1: for them.

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Speaker 4: Well, we don't expect the BOJ to actually raise rates

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Speaker 4: on a very aggressive level. We've maintained a view that

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Speaker 4: is going to be a very gradual upside. Firstly, you know,

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Speaker 4: most of the blending or borrowing in Japan, the mortgages

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Speaker 4: are not fixed, so I think that the you know,

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Speaker 4: VOJ is going to be wary of raising rates too

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Speaker 4: much based on those situations. Obviously looking at what's going

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Speaker 4: on with inflation, so inflation pressure should ease, and even

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Speaker 4: if they are maintained at sort of current levels, we

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Speaker 4: don't expect the BOJ to really raise rates aggressively.

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Speaker 1: What other sectors do you like in Japan? These small,

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Speaker 1: medium sized companies, Are they going to be the ones

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Speaker 1: perhaps benefiting a bit more compared to the large caps.

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Speaker 4: We don't really differentiate being small and large. We look

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Speaker 4: at where the value is. I think obviously we do

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Speaker 4: like some of the names as I mentioned that could

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Speaker 4: benefit as the Chinese economy starts to recover. I think

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Speaker 4: that's going to be that might come out. You know,

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Speaker 4: we're looking for, for example, trying to real estate prices

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Speaker 4: to start to stabilize on a broader basis early into

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty five, So sometime over the next nine months

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Speaker 4: we expect China consumption data to start to improve. So

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Speaker 4: I think that has a lot to do with the

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Speaker 4: confidence in China, and once that picks up, you know,

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Speaker 4: the China the proxies to that China recovery. Some of

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Speaker 4: the Japanese names there, like a Factory Automation side vanuk Yaskawa,

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Speaker 4: who have been lagging.

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Speaker 3: We expect those to do better.

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Speaker 4: Obviously, from speaking on China itself, we still like the

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Speaker 4: domestic consumption place there, and.

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Speaker 1: You've liked it for a while now. And this is

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Speaker 1: all banking on the expectations that we'll see that recovery eventually,

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Speaker 1: one that has been delayed a number of times. We're

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Speaker 1: hearing over the weekend how China is rolling out an

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Speaker 1: action plan to boost domestic consumption. Do you think that's

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Speaker 1: going to move the needle a bit further?

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Speaker 4: I think anything that can help should help, hopefully help,

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Speaker 4: but basically we feel that that employment will always lag,

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Speaker 4: so that part of it could be a bit slow

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Speaker 4: in terms of recovery. Where we do think that to

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Speaker 4: be a faster uppick tickup is in confidence.

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Speaker 3: So we do need to see the real.

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Speaker 4: Estate home prices start to stabilize there. So with the

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Speaker 4: local governments absorbing some of the excess inventory, we actually

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Speaker 4: expect that in excess inventory levels to sort of start

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Speaker 4: easing over the next ninety twenty four months.

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Speaker 2: We get the export data for China midweek, are you

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Speaker 2: expecting the number to come in a little on the

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Speaker 2: stronger side for July? And if that's the case, will

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Speaker 2: industrial production continue to be this bright spot for China.

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Speaker 3: It's it's kind of hard to say.

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Speaker 4: I think a lot of the reason, the reason uptick

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Speaker 4: probably has to do more with seasonal factors than a

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Speaker 4: general trend.

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Speaker 3: I think if you look at the risks where.

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Speaker 4: The you know that we're seeing with the US data,

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Speaker 4: we do expect US economies worth there is below two percent,

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Speaker 4: so we are anticipating pretty much lower global growth over

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Speaker 4: the next twelve months. So that's going to weigh on

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Speaker 4: China data. So we're not we may see seasonal bumps

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Speaker 4: months a month, but we don't really expect a big

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Speaker 4: change in the Trendlren.

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Speaker 1: Also want to get your thoughts on the tech sector.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're hearing how Boksha Hathaway is almost having

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Speaker 1: its stake in Apple. How do you view it overall

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Speaker 1: among these techniques that already being hit by doubt about

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Speaker 1: whether AI can deliver.

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Speaker 4: I think the market ran ahead of expectations and therefore

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Speaker 4: the valuations of some of the leading names in this

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Speaker 4: space have really shot up, probably overshot fair valuations. So

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Speaker 4: what we're seeing is that you know, we're looking at

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Speaker 4: these names come down to much better and more reasonable

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Speaker 4: levels if you look at the.

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Speaker 3: Broad US market. Really the.

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Speaker 4: Broad market didn't perform as well as you know the

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Speaker 4: Magnificent seven. But so those are the names obviously that

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Speaker 4: are being put over that we'll pull back. And Vivia,

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Speaker 4: even coming down to the level it is now, is

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Speaker 4: still probably fairly valued in our books, So we still

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Speaker 4: think they're there Before we buy some of these names,

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Speaker 4: it's probably got still a little bit room to downside

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Speaker 4: before we pick these names up.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you touched on this earlier. You know how when

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Speaker 1: we saw that sell off late last week in US,

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Speaker 1: there were some sectors that were still pretty buoyant, utilities,

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Speaker 1: real estate. What do you think the key drivers are

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Speaker 1: going to be towards the end of the year.

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Speaker 4: I think the slow in growth and the fact that

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Speaker 4: interest rates are coming down. I think investors have started

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Speaker 4: to rotate into utilities, the more defensive names, the names

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Speaker 4: with potential dividend growth, so those attractive youths obviously, so

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Speaker 4: utility is actually outperformed, has been outperforming this year. We

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Speaker 4: think there's room still in some of the other names,

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Speaker 4: such as reets. Yes, it's the commercial real estate market

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Speaker 4: is difficult and challenging still will likely be the case

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Speaker 4: for the next few years, but we anticipate that most

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Speaker 4: of the negatives are probably reflected in share prices, so

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Speaker 4: we think there's room for some of the reads to

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Speaker 4: start moving up. And then obviously some of the traditional

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Speaker 4: dividend place some of the aerospace defense names, particularly defense names,

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Speaker 4: probably are also a little.

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Speaker 3: Bit more stable.

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Speaker 2: Lorraine, thank you so much for making the time to

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Speaker 2: chat with us. Lorraine ten is director of Asia Equity

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Speaker 2: Research over at morning Star, joining from Singapore on the

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Speaker 2: Monday morning edition of Daybreak Asia welcome our guest, Victoria Bill.

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Speaker 2: She is the chief investment strategist at Bandery on Capital Management,

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Speaker 2: and Victoria joins us the windy city of Chicago. Nice

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Speaker 2: of you to drop by, Thanks so much.

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Speaker 5: Always it happy to blow on and from the Weddy City.

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Speaker 2: So let's start with the jobs data, because it looked

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Speaker 2: like the market is convinced that we are now verging

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Speaker 2: on a hard landing Goldman Sachs raising the probability of

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Speaker 2: a recession call here is it that dire in your view?

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Speaker 5: I think, as always, the market has a tendency to

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Speaker 5: over exaggerate some of these plays or even some of

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Speaker 5: these kind of downward playing downward metrics that they might

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Speaker 5: see from. Even if we consider twenty eighteen twenty nineteen

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Speaker 5: pre pandemic levels, we were seeing unemployment around a three

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Speaker 5: point nine percent. Four point three percent is just around average,

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Speaker 5: I would say, of what we've been seeing in a

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Speaker 5: normal sea times. And even with the initial jobless claims

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Speaker 5: that we've been seeing of about like two hundred and

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Speaker 5: forty nine K, A lot of those job losses have

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Speaker 5: actually been coming from the technology sector, which many would

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Speaker 5: argue has already been relatively bloated and when it comes

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Speaker 5: to kind of like a lot of things in the

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Speaker 5: AI space or even AI plays, I would say that

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Speaker 5: a lot of these tech companies are kind of peeling

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Speaker 5: back or kind of pulling back some of their workforce

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Speaker 5: in order to kind of be more leaner in their

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Speaker 5: structure rather than again some of the larger claims that

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Speaker 5: this is a like examples of what might happen for

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Speaker 5: a hard landing, and some of the other things that

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Speaker 5: I've been seeing also that kind of I would say,

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Speaker 5: lend kind of a credence that this isn't necessarily a

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Speaker 5: hard landing, is that we've been seeing inflationary pressures coming down.

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Speaker 6: We've been seeing.

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Speaker 5: GDP growth at like one point five percent for the

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Speaker 5: US economy, so a relatively strong like jobs market on

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Speaker 5: top of GDP growth. Even with those jobs claims, I

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Speaker 5: think it's kind of more of an overplay in or

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Speaker 5: exaggeration that the market tends to do in these in

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Speaker 5: these moments, So.

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Speaker 2: A moment ago, I mentioned the selling that we had

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Speaker 2: in the equity space on Friday, and I'm looking at

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Speaker 2: the e miny futures trading now for the American market

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Speaker 2: with the S and P five hundred off about eight

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Speaker 2: tens of one percent. Nasdaq one hundred is down another

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Speaker 2: one point three percent. Would you be looking for more

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Speaker 2: weakness in the days ahead.

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Speaker 6: I would definitely be looking for more weakness.

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Speaker 5: Again, if I were the FED, if I were chairman Power,

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Speaker 5: I would be looking for I would be looking for

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Speaker 5: that CPE or even that PC data to have a spike.

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Speaker 6: If I wanted to consider not even doing a rate cut,

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Speaker 6: I would do.

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Speaker 5: I would have considerations around GDP growth rather than looking

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Speaker 5: at this one data point around unemployment unemployment rate or

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Speaker 5: even like initial jobless claims, because again it's more so

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Speaker 5: indicative again of strong job growth in the industrials, healthcare,

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Speaker 5: and even like retention around those sectors, and it's more

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Speaker 5: of a kind of like I would say, a sell

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Speaker 5: off of technology stocks and technology based companies.

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Speaker 2: Is it too late to participate in the bond market

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Speaker 2: right now? Do you think that the easy money has

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Speaker 2: been made?

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Speaker 6: Not necessarily?

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Speaker 5: I think there's I mean again, I think there's always

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Speaker 5: opportunity wherever you look in the market, whether we're looking

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Speaker 5: at short term play in terms of like mortgage rates

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Speaker 5: or anything like that, I think, or even like private credit.

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Speaker 5: I think that there's still an argument to be made

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Speaker 5: around private credit space, especially for small mid sized companies.

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Speaker 3: Bank.

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Speaker 5: A lot of VC bad companies or like early companies

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Speaker 5: from twenty twenty going into twenty twenty two, are still

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Speaker 5: kind of looking for those upgrounds and kind of struggling

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Speaker 5: to raise VC dollars, and so a lot of those

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Speaker 5: companies have started to turn to the private credit space,

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Speaker 5: and so we've been seeing a huge boom and opportunity

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Speaker 5: in that area. And again with rates kind of potentially

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Speaker 5: coming down, was there's still margins to be made, but

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Speaker 5: it's definitely not going to be the top dollar that

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Speaker 5: we were seeing for the past year and a half.

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Speaker 2: So you don't seem to be in the camp that

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Speaker 2: the next move would be a fifty bases point rate

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Speaker 2: cut in September. Am I right on that?

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Speaker 6: So not quite. So I do believe that there is

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Speaker 6: potentiality for a rate cut.

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Speaker 5: I think that again some of the metrics and everything

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Speaker 5: would be that we've been seeing has come down enough

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Speaker 5: to show that inflation, while still a problem or potential

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Speaker 5: tailwind in the market, is something that is not as

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Speaker 5: much of a factor or a burden as it used

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Speaker 5: to be earlier. This year, So I do believe that

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Speaker 5: there is a possibility for a rate cut to happen

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Speaker 5: in September, but I do believe that we're still going

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Speaker 5: to have to again as long as these numbers continue

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Speaker 5: to stabilize, and as as long as we continue to

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Speaker 5: see a stable growth in the US economy, I think

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Speaker 5: that that will lead credence to a September rate cut

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Speaker 5: right now, But again, my point is that the US

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Speaker 5: economy is going strong and is doing well. But again

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Speaker 5: we've just been seeing a slow down from what we

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Speaker 5: had been seeing in previous years, which is exactly what

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Speaker 5: the FED wants.

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Speaker 2: I'm curious as to whether or not you see politics,

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Speaker 2: whether it's geopolitics or domestic politics, becoming a factor here

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Speaker 2: in markets in the near term.

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Speaker 5: It definitely does, depending on the candidate that wins the

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Speaker 5: presidency come September this year November, we can basically expect

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Speaker 5: Trump is very pro crypto, very pro business and capitalism,

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Speaker 5: and so we can see, or we can predict, there's

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Speaker 5: probably going to be a huge rush or surge that's

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Speaker 5: going to happen in the stock market.

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Speaker 6: From that perspective, if.

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Speaker 5: We're going in the realm or in the bank of

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Speaker 5: Kamala Harris, I think there's I'm not as well educated

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Speaker 5: on her talking points, but I think one of the

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Speaker 5: things that she's going to be very pro on is

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Speaker 5: again creating better relations with China as well as in

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Speaker 5: the United States, but also working to try and keep

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Speaker 5: those job numbers very strong here in the US economy.

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Speaker 5: I would say that just given Trump's VP pick and

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Speaker 5: everything that we've been seeing there, he's kind of taken

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Speaker 5: on a very pro corporate stance, and I think Kamala

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Speaker 5: would probably do the same thing, and so the reaction

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Speaker 5: to that would probably be very positively received from the

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Speaker 5: markets from both sides.

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Speaker 2: Are you primarily focused on the US? Are you seeing

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Speaker 2: any opportunities offshore right now that we need to know about.

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Speaker 5: Our primary focus at this time is in the US,

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Speaker 5: But in terms of offshore opportunities, if I'm looking at

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Speaker 5: companies that are in like technolo, If I'm looking at

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Speaker 5: companies that are in the technology space or even banking,

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Speaker 5: there's plenty of opportunity that's happening in India. If I'm

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Speaker 5: looking at pharmaceuticals, Nevardes is an amazing company that we

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Speaker 5: are very supportive of.

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Speaker 6: Overall, they've had just like a very good year in.

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Speaker 5: Terms of market cap and has been able to have

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Speaker 5: like a great compelling story around just earnings. But I

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Speaker 5: would say that most of the companies that we focus

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Speaker 5: on is domestic.

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Speaker 2: Victoria will leave it there. Thank you so much for

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Speaker 2: making time to chat with us US Sunday night in Chicago.

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Speaker 2: She is Victoria Bill's chief investment strategist at banry On Capital.

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Speaker 2: We welcome our guest, George but Boris. He is managing

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Speaker 2: director at K two. He joins us from Sydney. Always

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Speaker 2: a pleasure, George. I think we have to begin with

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Speaker 2: the employment data and this issue of a growth scare.

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Speaker 2: Are you worried about maybe a hard landing happening in

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Speaker 2: the US?

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Speaker 7: Hello, thanks for having me on. Not scared at all,

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Speaker 7: not looking for a hard landing. It's just one data point,

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Speaker 7: and yes it is quite soft the data, and even

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Speaker 7: the government employment data is quite weak as well, and

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Speaker 7: more people looking for work. But one data point in

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Speaker 7: itself is not policy effective effect in that sort of scenario.

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Speaker 7: But we're just looking at the soft landing scenario. The

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Speaker 7: bond mark has done the extraordinary rally months to date

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Speaker 7: or over the past four weeks, I should say, and

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Speaker 7: that inversion is quite concerning, but we just say that

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Speaker 7: everything's on the table. The language is quite consistent for

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Speaker 7: a September rate cut and that's twenty five plays as

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Speaker 7: points by the FED.

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Speaker 2: So with a pullback that we have been seeing in

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Speaker 2: equity prices, not just in the US on Friday, but

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Speaker 2: I'm looking at futures treading in Chicago for the Japanese market,

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Speaker 2: we could be down by more than eleven hundred points.

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Speaker 2: Would you be looking at these moments of selling as

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Speaker 2: opportunities to add to your position if you're long stocks

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Speaker 2: right now?

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Speaker 7: Active our managers, like ourselves globally have been part of

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Speaker 7: that rotation that's been on and off again for two

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Speaker 7: years now, but that rotation out of s and P

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Speaker 7: five hundred trying to take those gains but remaining within

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Speaker 7: the equity asset class. And so we're still looking at that.

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Speaker 7: And what we would say is there's opportunity for SMP

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Speaker 7: five hundred at the end of this reporting period to

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Speaker 7: have a look through on if it's overdone on the weakness.

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Speaker 7: And also having said that, we'll be looking at Nikey

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Speaker 7: as well in this retlacement because of the BOJ movement

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Speaker 7: last week, and that obviously stretched on valuations like the

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Speaker 7: SMP five hundred. They'll be two markets will be looking

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Speaker 7: for and if we don't believe it will be an

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Speaker 7: aggressive rate cut cycle once a begin, it will be

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Speaker 7: very shallow. So that is supportive for MidCap us, but

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Speaker 7: not as supportive as some people are pricing in. So

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Speaker 7: there's a number of different moving parts remain in that

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Speaker 7: equity s the class because it's not a hand hard landing.

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Speaker 7: A non recession scenario has been engineered we believe to

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Speaker 7: come through, and that's still positive for aggregate earnings. With

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Speaker 7: a lot of uneveness across the sectors of course, so.

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Speaker 2: But bisectors those being most sensitive to swings in the economy, materials, industrials,

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Speaker 2: even the financials am I right.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly, So the materials to start with there though

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Speaker 7: obviously they've really come off a lot and been quite weak,

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Speaker 7: but taking a step back, and commodities have been weaker

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Speaker 7: over the past three months, just as the economic data,

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Speaker 7: the economic pulse in the develop world has been weak

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Speaker 7: in the past three months.

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Speaker 8: But even agricultural commodities and.

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Speaker 7: Bulks and metals and even energy, but let's.

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Speaker 8: Just take a step back.

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Speaker 7: Even despite the weakness in Bulka in resource sectors in general,

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Speaker 7: you're still looking at US one one hundred and three

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Speaker 7: for iron ore. That is quite a reasonable price point

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Speaker 7: at this stage of the cycle. It's just at the

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Speaker 7: correct happened on the back of that softer economic pulse.

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Speaker 8: The second order condition.

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Speaker 7: The thing to reinforce is three months of softer data

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Speaker 7: is coming through, but it's not going to be a

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Speaker 7: continuation of it. Right cuts begin, They're going to be

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Speaker 7: shallow right cuts. Don't expect anything aggressive. Or one hundred

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Speaker 7: basis points of right cuts between now near end is

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Speaker 7: how we'll be looking at it.

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Speaker 2: You know, the time is kind of interesting because if

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Speaker 2: this is a mild growth scare that's happening in the US,

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Speaker 2: it comes at a time when there is a great

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Speaker 2: deal of concern about the strength of the Chinese economy.

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Speaker 2: We'll get the trade data on Wednesday. Export figures may

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Speaker 2: show a little bit of strength, but I think that

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Speaker 2: exports really for China have been a bright spot and

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Speaker 2: one of the things that has kept industrial production growing.

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Speaker 2: If we have continued lackluster growth in the Chinese economies,

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Speaker 2: is that going to be a big factor in holding

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Speaker 2: back the growth rate of the global economy going forward.

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Speaker 2: Let's say in the next twelve months, it.

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Speaker 8: Does, but it's all about timing.

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Speaker 7: Clearly, while there's some good points of the Chinese economy,

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Speaker 7: they're in the world of pain on the construction cycle

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Speaker 7: with property. That's the biggest correction underway the world's ever seen.

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Speaker 8: Let's just say five to ten years to get out

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Speaker 8: of that.

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Speaker 7: But they've been concentrating all of their factors of production

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Speaker 7: in fixed cost investments into the export sector. It's not

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Speaker 7: about domestic demand. We all know that narrative. It's pretty clear.

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Speaker 7: So the way to look at it is the more

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Speaker 7: the Biden administration takes on the tariff head on, which

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Speaker 7: is legitimate given what's been going on in recent years,

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Speaker 7: then that is going to be softer for the industrial

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Speaker 7: production cycle and therefore for commodities or things being equal.

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Speaker 8: But it's a catch twenty two.

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Speaker 7: It's that there is that softness to the Chinese economy,

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Speaker 7: but then there's a reacceleration in certain parts of it,

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Speaker 7: but it's not domestic demand driven.

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Speaker 8: It's export lead.

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Speaker 7: But we'll be looking at it from softer economic data

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Speaker 7: to the global GDP numbers from China going forward, not

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Speaker 7: growing contribution from China, so they're in the unique situation there.

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Speaker 7: But the export sector is going to continue to find

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Speaker 7: other markets outside of the USA, Canada and obviously Mexico with.

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Speaker 8: That old region in export.

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Speaker 2: So you're in Sydney. We have a rate decision later

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Speaker 2: in the week from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The

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Speaker 2: expectation right now is that the RBA will hold the

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Speaker 2: target rate ad around four point three five percent. I'm

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Speaker 2: imagining that's where you see things right now, especially after

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Speaker 2: core inflation cooled in the second quarter. Walk about economics, now,

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Speaker 2: how are things in Australia.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, very quick narrative for Australia is that the Reserve

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Speaker 7: Bank of Australia over generalization. We are behind the curve,

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Speaker 7: too late to start the rate high cycle and not

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Speaker 7: enough and it's led to very stubborn core inflation relative

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Speaker 7: to other developed economies because of the very strong fiscal

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Speaker 7: students from the federal government and the state government level.

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Speaker 8: Now except just a lot in there, but the.

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Speaker 7: Point to reinforces it's very difficult to reconcile the logic

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Speaker 7: of making the case of rap cuts in Australia, all

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Speaker 7: things being equal, given the stubbornness of their second order

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Speaker 7: condition and that services inflation, and given the strong fiscal

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00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 7: stimulus at the federal and state level.

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Speaker 8: Now that's a odds with Canada, USA, New.

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Speaker 7: Zealand to some effect, ECB and the UK, But that's

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Speaker 7: how you should look at the Australian economy.

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00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 8: In aggregate, that's holding up because of the export sector.

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Speaker 7: There is a lot of pain and unneedness across the

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00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 7: domestic demand side of things, but that sticky inflation in

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00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 7: the core, that's the thing to take out of Australia

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Speaker 7: if you're looking at it from offshore.

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Speaker 2: So growth I believe in the first quarter was very weak.

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Speaker 2: Is that something that's going to be kind of stagnant

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Speaker 2: very quickly for the foreseeable future.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, very stagnant for the foreseable future.

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00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 7: For growth in Australia, it's going to be export orientated

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00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 7: lead and domestic demand is really that soft part of

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00:23:58,280 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 7: the Australian economy.

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Speaker 2: It's always a pleasure. Thanks for making time to chat

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Speaker 2: with us. George beboris there. He is managing director at

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Speaker 2: K two in Sydney. This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak

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Speaker 2: Asia podcast, bringing you the stories making news and moving

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Speaker 2: markets in the Asia Pacific. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel

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