Speaker 1: Also media, Hello everyone, and welcome back to it could
Speaker 1: happen here. I'm Robert Evans, and you know, along with
Speaker 1: all of our other correspondents, I'm looking forward to what
Speaker 1: we can expect from the Trump administration, which is a
Speaker 1: broad and far reaching question given the ambitions that Trump
Speaker 1: and the others who I think will be involved in
Speaker 1: this new administration have already expressed.
Speaker 2: And the elevator pitch theme of today's episode is what's
Speaker 2: going to happen in Gaza once Trump is president again?
Speaker 2: Will things get better or worse? Obviously the expectation is worse.
Speaker 2: I think that's where certainly the safe money goes if
Speaker 2: you're putting money on this. But the short answer to
Speaker 2: that question is no, one fully knows now. The first
Speaker 2: thing that I did when trying to prepare for this
Speaker 2: episode was tracked down as many articles as I could
Speaker 2: that included interviews with Gozen's about their expectations were largely negative,
Speaker 2: but a little more mixed than you might expect. A
Speaker 2: Reuter's reporter interviewed Abu Osama, living in Conunis in the
Speaker 2: southern Gaza strip. He called Trump's election a quote new
Speaker 2: catastrophe in the history of the Palestinian people, adding despite
Speaker 2: the destruction, death and displacement that we have witnessed, what
Speaker 2: is coming will be more difficult. It will be politically devastating.
Speaker 2: This essentially agrees with what a Palestinian from beit Lahia
Speaker 2: in the Northern Gaza Strip, Ahmed Jerad told Al Jazeera quote.
Speaker 2: Trump and Netanyahu are an evil alliance against the Palestinians,
Speaker 2: and our fate will be very difficult, not only in
Speaker 2: the fateful issues, but also in our daily concerns. This
Speaker 2: is a sad day for Palestinians. Trump will endorse net
Speaker 2: Nyahu's free hand regarding the possibility of the return of
Speaker 2: settlements to the Gaza Strip and even the displacement of
Speaker 2: large numbers of Palestinians outside it. We hope to return
Speaker 2: to the north, and now all of our hopes have
Speaker 2: and shattered, and unfortunately Jerrod's fears here have been immediately
Speaker 2: proven well founded. On November sixth, as the rest of
Speaker 2: the world reeled from Trump's victory, IDF Brigadier General Itzig
Speaker 2: Kohen told Israeli reporters there is no intention of allowing
Speaker 2: the residents of the Northern Gaza Strip to return to
Speaker 2: their homes. Humanitarian aid would only be allowed to enter
Speaker 2: through the south. His justification was that there are no
Speaker 2: more civilians in the north. Reporting from The Guardian interviewed
Speaker 2: several international humanitarian law experts, and the members of that
Speaker 2: likely dying field described Israeli actions here as war crimes.
Speaker 2: The forcible transfer of civilian populations and the use of
Speaker 2: food as a weapon are supposed to be banned. Despite this,
Speaker 2: we can safely assume that there will be no serious
Speaker 2: consequences as a result of any of this. Now, the
Speaker 2: timing of this announcement was predominant, and it is not
Speaker 2: unreasonable to suggest that Israel might not have been as
Speaker 2: bold as they're currently being if Harris had won another Gozen.
Speaker 2: Seventy year old doctor Zakia Hilal told Al Jazeera it
Speaker 2: is true that American administrations do not differ in supporting Israel,
Speaker 2: but some are more severe and more intense than others,
Speaker 2: like Trump. You can find numerous gosins expressing feelings along
Speaker 2: these lines if you read long enough. But you will
Speaker 2: also find a number who feel like what's coming won't
Speaker 2: be worse, or at least won't be very different from
Speaker 2: what they've already endured. Jehad Malaka, a researcher at the
Speaker 2: Palestinian Planning Center, told Al Jazeera he does not expect
Speaker 2: Trump's administration to be wildly different from Biden's. In this regard,
Speaker 2: Trump uses rough tools and Biden and the Democrats resort
Speaker 2: to soft tools, but the politics are the same. Biden
Speaker 2: did not make any decision in favor of the Palestinians
Speaker 2: and was unable to achieve a ceasefire. He did not
Speaker 2: change the reality of the decisions of his predecessor Trump
Speaker 2: at all. The positions of the two administrations regarding Israel
Speaker 2: are the same and identical, and they put its interests
Speaker 2: above all other considerations. You can also find some Gazans
Speaker 2: who see a sliver of hope in Trump's new administration.
Speaker 2: Reuter spoke with the owner of a grocery store in Gaza,
Speaker 2: Khaled Desuso, who told their reporter, I think Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: if he wins, he promised the Muslim people in America
Speaker 2: to stop the war in Gaza. We hope that happens,
Speaker 2: and it's not necessarily absurd to hope that there may
Speaker 2: be some positive effects here. Trump has said many horrible
Speaker 2: things about Palestinians, obviously, several weeks before the election, he
Speaker 2: had a phone call with net Yahoo that may have
Speaker 2: been a vihilation of the Logan Act, although laws don't
Speaker 2: really matter anymore. Here's how Slate dot Com summarized what
Speaker 2: happened in that call. According to Trump, the Israeli leaders
Speaker 2: said he disregarded President Joe Biden's warning to keep troops
Speaker 2: out of Rafa in southern Gaza, a decision that resulted
Speaker 2: in the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a
Speaker 2: shootout in the area. Trump also said nat Nyahu asked
Speaker 2: him for advice on how to respond to Iran's missile
Speaker 2: attack on his to which Trump said he responded, do
Speaker 2: whatever you have to do. Now, that's a dire sign,
Speaker 2: and it is impossible to imagine that a new Trump
Speaker 2: regime won't restart the sale in shipment of specific munitions
Speaker 2: that Biden banned for export to Israel this July. Biden
Speaker 2: halted the shipment of two thousand pound bombs to the
Speaker 2: IDF because quote, they cannot be used in Gazo or
Speaker 2: any populated area without causing great human tragedy and damage. Now,
Speaker 2: the fact that munitions like this will very likely be
Speaker 2: used as hideous and I think it's extremely unlikely that
Speaker 2: we do not see an immediate rise in the death toll.
Speaker 2: But at the same time, Israel's extant acts have caused
Speaker 2: great human tragedy and damage. The munitions they have have
Speaker 2: already been responsible for calamitous death and destruction on a
Speaker 2: fairly wide scale. So where's the cause for any optimism
Speaker 2: on this at all? It comes from Trump's own self interest.
Speaker 2: As Khalide de Suso noted, Trump ran promising to end wars.
Speaker 2: This means he does have some vested interest, even if
Speaker 2: only in his own ego, in forcing NETANYAHUO to draw
Speaker 2: things to a close in short order. And there is
Speaker 2: indeed reporting that Trump has told net Nyahu to wrap
Speaker 2: things up by January so that he can take office
Speaker 2: with an end to the conflict and ideally use that
Speaker 2: as a way to kind of bolster his early popularity
Speaker 2: and gain some political capital for the other sweeping changes
Speaker 2: he wants to make. Now. The fact that Trump is
Speaker 2: pushing net Yahoo on ending things in January doesn't mean
Speaker 2: a sudden, peaceful ceasefire. For one thing, Nothing is going
Speaker 2: to happen in the months between then and now. To
Speaker 2: reduce the level of bloodshed and almost every likely theoretical
Speaker 2: ends with Israel massively escalating violence and using new, more
Speaker 2: destructive weapons before bringing an end to their campaign. But
Speaker 2: it does mean that Trump might be able to pressure
Speaker 2: bb to bring things to an end. There's a good
Speaker 2: article on this in the BBC. No guarantees Trump will
Speaker 2: give net Nyahoo all he wants now. In that piece,
Speaker 2: East correspondent Lucy Williamson writes, Donald Trump's first term in
Speaker 2: office was exemplary as far as Israel is concerned. Said
Speaker 2: Michael Oran, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States,
Speaker 2: the hope is that he'll revisit that, but we have
Speaker 2: to be very clear sighted about who Donald Trump is
Speaker 2: and what he stands for. Firstly, he said, the former
Speaker 2: president doesn't like wars, seeing them as expensive. Trump has
Speaker 2: urged Israel to finish the war in Gaza quickly. He's
Speaker 2: also not a big fan of israel settlements in the
Speaker 2: occupied West Bank, has set Ambassador Oran, and has opposed
Speaker 2: the wishes of some Israeli leaders to annex parts of it.
Speaker 2: Both of these policies could put him in conflict with
Speaker 2: far right parties in Netanyahu's current governing coalition, who have
Speaker 2: threatened to bring down the government if the Prime Minister
Speaker 2: pursues policies they reject. Michael Orn believes net Yaho will
Speaker 2: need to take a different approach with the incoming president.
Speaker 2: If Donald Trump comes to office in January and says, okay,
Speaker 2: you have a week to finish the war, net Yahoo
Speaker 2: is going to have to respect that. And we'll contain
Speaker 2: you talking about what this means. But first here's semants.
Speaker 2: So it is possible that we will see a quick
Speaker 2: end to the violence in January, and perhaps a quicker
Speaker 2: one than we would have seen under Harris. That's the
Speaker 2: best case scenario and not necessarily the likeliest one, and
Speaker 2: I should re emphasize here that best case scenario still
Speaker 2: means that we will probably see a massive escalation in
Speaker 2: violence as the IDF seeks to force more people out
Speaker 2: of northern Gaza and in the conflict, with a large
Speaker 2: slice of Gaza permanently wrenched from Palestinian control and hand
Speaker 2: it over to Israeli settlers, there is no version of
Speaker 2: what comes next that is not a calamity to the
Speaker 2: Palestinian people. Now, the signs from within the Israeli government
Speaker 2: on what a new Trump administration means for them are
Speaker 2: certainly bullish, you could say, and reading these tea leaves
Speaker 2: provides very little fuel for optimism. It Mar ben Vere,
Speaker 2: the Minister of National Security, posted yes with several lesses
Speaker 2: and an emoji of a flexed bicep in a post
Speaker 2: on social media. When the first good return started coming
Speaker 2: in for Trump on the day of the election itself,
Speaker 2: and a sign of confidence in the coming results, Bibi
Speaker 2: Netanyahu fired his Defense Minister Jove Gallant, who had been
Speaker 2: his primary point of contact with the Biden administration. And
Speaker 2: it's harder to imagine a much more direct sign of
Speaker 2: what he wants to do than that. Now. I've struggled
Speaker 2: to present the sweep of possible results of this, and
Speaker 2: it bears reiterating that the bulk of predictions from Gazans
Speaker 2: who are plugged into the politics of the region are
Speaker 2: incredibly negative. Ahmed Fayad, an independent researcher in Israeli affairs
Speaker 2: who currently resides in central Gaza, told Al Jazeera that
Speaker 2: he felt Trump's influence would be entirely negative, adding that
Speaker 2: Trump was a quote more dominating figure than Biden and
Speaker 2: his influence would allow net Nyahu to quote conquer Gaza quote.
Speaker 2: Amidst the weakened Palestinian Front and absence of any Arab
Speaker 2: unity and solidarity, the whole Palestinian cause faces its worst
Speaker 2: threat yet. Now. What does bear watching is the degree
Speaker 2: to which BIEB might face threats from his own right flank.
Speaker 2: Net Nyahu himself is almost certainly on the side of
Speaker 2: doing what will please his patron Trump all the more,
Speaker 2: and that would be forcing a quick violent end to
Speaker 2: the fighting and taking northern Gaza as the spoils of war.
Speaker 2: But this might bring him into conflict with radicals on
Speaker 2: his own side, who can't be placated by anything but
Speaker 2: what they would see as total victory. In the event
Speaker 2: net Nyahu feels pushed, it is not impossible that he
Speaker 2: will wind up in conflict with Trump. This has happened before,
Speaker 2: as BB's sense of self preservation led him to take
Speaker 2: actions that enraged Trump. The best example of this took
Speaker 2: place in the immediate aftermath of the twenty two election.
Speaker 2: If you want to think back to those happier days,
Speaker 2: b B was again the first world leader to call
Speaker 2: and offer Biden congratulations on his victory, as he was
Speaker 2: with Trump. This is a habit for the man who,
Speaker 2: among other things, is an expert at toadying for favor
Speaker 2: with US leaders. Trump was livid, and he spoke out
Speaker 2: about this, telling Israeli journalist Barak Ravid that he believed
Speaker 2: that he had saved Israel from destruction, and in response,
Speaker 2: Netnyahoo had stabbed him in the back. I'm going to
Speaker 2: quote now from an article in the BBC. Mister Trump
Speaker 2: accused mister Netnyahuo of congratulating too quickly mister Trump's successor,
Speaker 2: Joe Biden on winning the twenty twenty US election. Mister
Speaker 2: Trump disputed the election result, though his claims were never upheld.
Speaker 2: The first person who congratulated Joe Biden was Bbe, the
Speaker 2: man that I did more for than any other person
Speaker 2: I dealt with. Bibe could have stayed quiet. He has
Speaker 2: made a terrible mistake. He was very early, mister Trump said,
Speaker 2: like earlier than most. I haven't spoken to him since.
Speaker 2: Fuck him. I actually don't know that he said fuck
Speaker 2: The actual text of the article says expletive him. But
Speaker 2: I'm assuming he said fuck him. I think that's probably
Speaker 2: a fair assumption for me to make. Now, some evidence
Speaker 2: does suggest that Trump and Bib don't personally get along,
Speaker 2: as that quote I just read implies, certainly not to
Speaker 2: the degree that net Nyahu and Biden once did once.
Speaker 2: I should say this may hinge partly on the fact
Speaker 2: that Trump really only believes in himself and his own benefit,
Speaker 2: whereas Joe Biden was a strong and committed believer in
Speaker 2: Israel and was willing to take actions against his own
Speaker 2: political self interest in furtherance of that belief. And we've
Speaker 2: all seen where those actions got him. Just last December,
Speaker 2: Trump attacked net Nahou at an early campaign rally in
Speaker 2: New York, saying bib had quote let us down by
Speaker 2: pulling Israeli support for the operation that killed Iranian General
Speaker 2: Cossum Solomoni at the last minute. He also criticized the
Speaker 2: Israeli leader for not being prepared for Hermas's October seventh attack. Now,
Speaker 2: I want to be clear here that these divisions between
Speaker 2: both men are blisteringly unlikely to mean anything that approaches
Speaker 2: relief for the Palestinian people, at least in the near term.
Speaker 2: The immediate and probably long term future of Gaza is
Speaker 2: much bleaker today than it was a few weeks ago.
Speaker 2: The Guardian recently published an article interviewing former CIA director
Speaker 2: and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. He predicted Trump would give
Speaker 2: Bibe a blank check for aggression, which might invite the
Speaker 2: possibility of open war with Iran. Now that's the kind
Speaker 2: of thing that can lead one to panic, especially when
Speaker 2: you assume a guy like Panetta is privy to a
Speaker 2: lot of inside information. We may not be, but I'm
Speaker 2: actually not really sure that he is. I don't see
Speaker 2: any evidence from this article that Panetta is speaking from
Speaker 2: direct personal knowledge about extant plans to carry out an attack. Instead,
Speaker 2: he quoted Trump's description of the call that Trump had
Speaker 2: had with bb before the election, telling net Yahoo, do
Speaker 2: whatever you have to do. So Leon may just be
Speaker 2: working from the same information the rest of us have
Speaker 2: and coming to a somewhat different conclusion. I'm not as
Speaker 2: sure as he is about an imminent attack on Iran
Speaker 2: because Trump campaigned heavily on ending wars, and while I
Speaker 2: don't credit Trump is a particularly honest man, I do
Speaker 2: think he sees his personal benefit right now in being
Speaker 2: able to portray himself as a peacemaker, in part because
Speaker 2: he has so much domestically he wants to do, and
Speaker 2: so much else internationally he wants to do. Right expending
Speaker 2: a bunch of political capital, dealing with the kinds of
Speaker 2: protests and unrest and even anger from his base that
Speaker 2: a war with Iran would mean, especially once it gets
Speaker 2: bogged down in the kind of violence that would come
Speaker 2: with that. He may not and likely doesn't see that
Speaker 2: as being of benefit to him. Now, that doesn't mean
Speaker 2: it will never happen. It doesn't mean his calculus won't change.
Speaker 2: I do foresee some situations in which Trump might decide
Speaker 2: that his personal benefit is in there being a wider
Speaker 2: ground conflict with Iran that US forces get drawn into.
Speaker 2: You know, we'll talk a little bit about some of
Speaker 2: the possibilities around this, and we're getting outside of the
Speaker 2: realm of kind of established fact at this point, but
Speaker 2: I do think it's worth considering some of this. But
Speaker 2: first consider these ads. So, when we talk about the
Speaker 2: possibility of a ground conflict with Iran starting between Israel
Speaker 2: and Iran, but almost inevitably drawing in more US forces,
Speaker 2: the unknowns and unknown knowns in this situation are pretty staggering.
Speaker 2: If I let myself analyze every possibility, my mind can
Speaker 2: go to some dark places. Trump sees war with Iran
Speaker 2: as a negative. Now I'm quite sure, But how would
Speaker 2: he feel about it in the wake of, say, a
Speaker 2: Musk centered plan to in the federal reserve and tank
Speaker 2: the dollar, in the wake of the changes that all
Speaker 2: of his immigration policies would make on the price of food,
Speaker 2: the Pression era levels of inflation and unemployment returning to
Speaker 2: the United States, and the attendant social unrest that that
Speaker 2: would cause. If Americans find themselves on the verge of
Speaker 2: food rights, perhaps Trump would gamble on war being the
Speaker 2: best distraction he could manage. It's certainly not impossible. Now,
Speaker 2: I don't know how useful it is to bury myself
Speaker 2: in theoreticals and probabilities. The known threats are dire enough,
Speaker 2: and they demand full time awareness in order to attempt
Speaker 2: to counter and endure. So instead of spiraling, I'm going
Speaker 2: to leave you today with the words of another Ghazan,
Speaker 2: Mohammed R. Mausch. He's a journalist who wrote an article
Speaker 2: for MSNBC right after the election titled My family and
Speaker 2: I Survived the War in Gaza. We know Trump's America
Speaker 2: won't save us, and here's Mohammed For us. The election
Speaker 2: of Donald Trump isn't just a blip on the political
Speaker 2: radar or a shift in foreign policy. It's a challenge
Speaker 2: to sustain existence while the world seems intent on erasing us.
Speaker 2: It's about surviving seventy seven years under occupation and over
Speaker 2: a year of all ongoing genocide, the very genocide I
Speaker 2: barely survived last December, when my family and I, including
Speaker 2: my elderly parents and three year old son, were buried
Speaker 2: under the rubble of what was once our home after
Speaker 2: it was struck by an Israeli fired US missal. The
Speaker 2: date December seventh, twenty twenty three. Our bones were crushed
Speaker 2: between layers of concrete and twisted metal as we spent
Speaker 2: hours in the dark, buried together and praying to be
Speaker 2: pulled out in one piece. The trauma of that night,
Speaker 2: in both its physical and emotional toll, of my son's small,
Speaker 2: fragile hand clinging to mind, comes back to me now
Speaker 2: as Trump prepares to take power once more. I've seen
Speaker 2: how American political leader's toy with the idea of change.
Speaker 2: How they dress up their campaigns with grand ideas about
Speaker 2: peace and justice, yet each president brushes off our reality.
Speaker 2: Barack Obama promised hope and change we could believe in,
Speaker 2: yet we got more bombs. Joe Biden offered a different approach,
Speaker 2: pledging and yielding support for Israel, leaving us to live
Speaker 2: through even more horror. Vice President Kamala Harris Niceties included
Speaker 2: no concrete promises to protect Palestinians, but she did pledge
Speaker 2: to continue financial support for Israel, and Trump's blundness as
Speaker 2: he promises to come back swinging reminds us not to
Speaker 2: hold out hope for change. So, you know, not much
Speaker 2: optimism here, but I do really recommend reading that article
Speaker 2: that MSNBC published. You know, it's bleak, but important, especially
Speaker 2: given the fact that you know we may be soon
Speaker 2: entering a world where it would be harder for people
Speaker 2: like Muhammad to express their feelings and their truth to
Speaker 2: an audience. I don't think it's unlikely that a clamp
Speaker 2: down is coming on some of these things. It's hard
Speaker 2: to say how extensive it will be, but there's a
Speaker 2: threat that you know, Israel and their backers see in
Speaker 2: the way that public sympathy has built so quickly for
Speaker 2: Gaza in a way that wasn't present with a lot
Speaker 2: of previous stages of violence between Israel in Gaza. Right now,
Speaker 2: this is the result of a lot of videos spreading
Speaker 2: on social media. It's the result on of voices from
Speaker 2: Gaza getting out and getting to people in a way
Speaker 2: they really hadn't before. And so one thing that does
Speaker 2: worry me greatly when I think about what's going to
Speaker 2: happen in Gaza under President Trump is not just what's
Speaker 2: going to happen to the people living there right now,
Speaker 2: but what's going to happen to their ability to tell
Speaker 2: their story, to get information out to the rest of us.
Speaker 2: That is very much an open question at this moment,
Speaker 2: but it's certainly one that should be on your lips,
Speaker 2: and it's one that we will be investigating here at
Speaker 2: cool Zone as long as we're able to continue doing
Speaker 2: that until next time. I'm Robert Evans. We'll be back
Speaker 2: tomorrow and every other day reporting on you know, the world.
Speaker 2: It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.
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