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Speaker 1: Also media, Hello everyone, and welcome back to it could

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Speaker 1: happen here. I'm Robert Evans, and you know, along with

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Speaker 1: all of our other correspondents, I'm looking forward to what

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Speaker 1: we can expect from the Trump administration, which is a

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Speaker 1: broad and far reaching question given the ambitions that Trump

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Speaker 1: and the others who I think will be involved in

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Speaker 1: this new administration have already expressed.

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Speaker 2: And the elevator pitch theme of today's episode is what's

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Speaker 2: going to happen in Gaza once Trump is president again?

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Speaker 2: Will things get better or worse? Obviously the expectation is worse.

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Speaker 2: I think that's where certainly the safe money goes if

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Speaker 2: you're putting money on this. But the short answer to

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Speaker 2: that question is no, one fully knows now. The first

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Speaker 2: thing that I did when trying to prepare for this

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Speaker 2: episode was tracked down as many articles as I could

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Speaker 2: that included interviews with Gozen's about their expectations were largely negative,

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Speaker 2: but a little more mixed than you might expect. A

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Speaker 2: Reuter's reporter interviewed Abu Osama, living in Conunis in the

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Speaker 2: southern Gaza strip. He called Trump's election a quote new

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Speaker 2: catastrophe in the history of the Palestinian people, adding despite

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Speaker 2: the destruction, death and displacement that we have witnessed, what

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Speaker 2: is coming will be more difficult. It will be politically devastating.

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Speaker 2: This essentially agrees with what a Palestinian from beit Lahia

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Speaker 2: in the Northern Gaza Strip, Ahmed Jerad told Al Jazeera quote.

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Speaker 2: Trump and Netanyahu are an evil alliance against the Palestinians,

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Speaker 2: and our fate will be very difficult, not only in

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Speaker 2: the fateful issues, but also in our daily concerns. This

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Speaker 2: is a sad day for Palestinians. Trump will endorse net

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Speaker 2: Nyahu's free hand regarding the possibility of the return of

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Speaker 2: settlements to the Gaza Strip and even the displacement of

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Speaker 2: large numbers of Palestinians outside it. We hope to return

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Speaker 2: to the north, and now all of our hopes have

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Speaker 2: and shattered, and unfortunately Jerrod's fears here have been immediately

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Speaker 2: proven well founded. On November sixth, as the rest of

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Speaker 2: the world reeled from Trump's victory, IDF Brigadier General Itzig

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Speaker 2: Kohen told Israeli reporters there is no intention of allowing

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Speaker 2: the residents of the Northern Gaza Strip to return to

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Speaker 2: their homes. Humanitarian aid would only be allowed to enter

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Speaker 2: through the south. His justification was that there are no

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Speaker 2: more civilians in the north. Reporting from The Guardian interviewed

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Speaker 2: several international humanitarian law experts, and the members of that

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Speaker 2: likely dying field described Israeli actions here as war crimes.

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Speaker 2: The forcible transfer of civilian populations and the use of

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Speaker 2: food as a weapon are supposed to be banned. Despite this,

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Speaker 2: we can safely assume that there will be no serious

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Speaker 2: consequences as a result of any of this. Now, the

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Speaker 2: timing of this announcement was predominant, and it is not

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Speaker 2: unreasonable to suggest that Israel might not have been as

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Speaker 2: bold as they're currently being if Harris had won another Gozen.

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Speaker 2: Seventy year old doctor Zakia Hilal told Al Jazeera it

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Speaker 2: is true that American administrations do not differ in supporting Israel,

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Speaker 2: but some are more severe and more intense than others,

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Speaker 2: like Trump. You can find numerous gosins expressing feelings along

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Speaker 2: these lines if you read long enough. But you will

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Speaker 2: also find a number who feel like what's coming won't

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Speaker 2: be worse, or at least won't be very different from

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Speaker 2: what they've already endured. Jehad Malaka, a researcher at the

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Speaker 2: Palestinian Planning Center, told Al Jazeera he does not expect

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Speaker 2: Trump's administration to be wildly different from Biden's. In this regard,

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Speaker 2: Trump uses rough tools and Biden and the Democrats resort

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Speaker 2: to soft tools, but the politics are the same. Biden

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Speaker 2: did not make any decision in favor of the Palestinians

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Speaker 2: and was unable to achieve a ceasefire. He did not

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Speaker 2: change the reality of the decisions of his predecessor Trump

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Speaker 2: at all. The positions of the two administrations regarding Israel

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Speaker 2: are the same and identical, and they put its interests

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Speaker 2: above all other considerations. You can also find some Gazans

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Speaker 2: who see a sliver of hope in Trump's new administration.

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Speaker 2: Reuter spoke with the owner of a grocery store in Gaza,

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Speaker 2: Khaled Desuso, who told their reporter, I think Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: if he wins, he promised the Muslim people in America

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Speaker 2: to stop the war in Gaza. We hope that happens,

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Speaker 2: and it's not necessarily absurd to hope that there may

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Speaker 2: be some positive effects here. Trump has said many horrible

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Speaker 2: things about Palestinians, obviously, several weeks before the election, he

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Speaker 2: had a phone call with net Yahoo that may have

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Speaker 2: been a vihilation of the Logan Act, although laws don't

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Speaker 2: really matter anymore. Here's how Slate dot Com summarized what

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Speaker 2: happened in that call. According to Trump, the Israeli leaders

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Speaker 2: said he disregarded President Joe Biden's warning to keep troops

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Speaker 2: out of Rafa in southern Gaza, a decision that resulted

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Speaker 2: in the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a

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Speaker 2: shootout in the area. Trump also said nat Nyahu asked

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Speaker 2: him for advice on how to respond to Iran's missile

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Speaker 2: attack on his to which Trump said he responded, do

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Speaker 2: whatever you have to do. Now, that's a dire sign,

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Speaker 2: and it is impossible to imagine that a new Trump

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Speaker 2: regime won't restart the sale in shipment of specific munitions

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Speaker 2: that Biden banned for export to Israel this July. Biden

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Speaker 2: halted the shipment of two thousand pound bombs to the

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Speaker 2: IDF because quote, they cannot be used in Gazo or

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Speaker 2: any populated area without causing great human tragedy and damage. Now,

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Speaker 2: the fact that munitions like this will very likely be

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Speaker 2: used as hideous and I think it's extremely unlikely that

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Speaker 2: we do not see an immediate rise in the death toll.

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Speaker 2: But at the same time, Israel's extant acts have caused

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Speaker 2: great human tragedy and damage. The munitions they have have

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Speaker 2: already been responsible for calamitous death and destruction on a

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Speaker 2: fairly wide scale. So where's the cause for any optimism

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Speaker 2: on this at all? It comes from Trump's own self interest.

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Speaker 2: As Khalide de Suso noted, Trump ran promising to end wars.

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Speaker 2: This means he does have some vested interest, even if

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Speaker 2: only in his own ego, in forcing NETANYAHUO to draw

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Speaker 2: things to a close in short order. And there is

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Speaker 2: indeed reporting that Trump has told net Nyahu to wrap

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Speaker 2: things up by January so that he can take office

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Speaker 2: with an end to the conflict and ideally use that

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Speaker 2: as a way to kind of bolster his early popularity

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Speaker 2: and gain some political capital for the other sweeping changes

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Speaker 2: he wants to make. Now. The fact that Trump is

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Speaker 2: pushing net Yahoo on ending things in January doesn't mean

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Speaker 2: a sudden, peaceful ceasefire. For one thing, Nothing is going

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Speaker 2: to happen in the months between then and now. To

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Speaker 2: reduce the level of bloodshed and almost every likely theoretical

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Speaker 2: ends with Israel massively escalating violence and using new, more

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Speaker 2: destructive weapons before bringing an end to their campaign. But

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Speaker 2: it does mean that Trump might be able to pressure

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Speaker 2: bb to bring things to an end. There's a good

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Speaker 2: article on this in the BBC. No guarantees Trump will

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Speaker 2: give net Nyahoo all he wants now. In that piece,

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Speaker 2: East correspondent Lucy Williamson writes, Donald Trump's first term in

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Speaker 2: office was exemplary as far as Israel is concerned. Said

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Speaker 2: Michael Oran, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States,

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Speaker 2: the hope is that he'll revisit that, but we have

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Speaker 2: to be very clear sighted about who Donald Trump is

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Speaker 2: and what he stands for. Firstly, he said, the former

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Speaker 2: president doesn't like wars, seeing them as expensive. Trump has

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Speaker 2: urged Israel to finish the war in Gaza quickly. He's

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Speaker 2: also not a big fan of israel settlements in the

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Speaker 2: occupied West Bank, has set Ambassador Oran, and has opposed

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Speaker 2: the wishes of some Israeli leaders to annex parts of it.

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Speaker 2: Both of these policies could put him in conflict with

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Speaker 2: far right parties in Netanyahu's current governing coalition, who have

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Speaker 2: threatened to bring down the government if the Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: pursues policies they reject. Michael Orn believes net Yaho will

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Speaker 2: need to take a different approach with the incoming president.

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Speaker 2: If Donald Trump comes to office in January and says, okay,

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Speaker 2: you have a week to finish the war, net Yahoo

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Speaker 2: is going to have to respect that. And we'll contain

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Speaker 2: you talking about what this means. But first here's semants.

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Speaker 2: So it is possible that we will see a quick

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Speaker 2: end to the violence in January, and perhaps a quicker

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Speaker 2: one than we would have seen under Harris. That's the

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Speaker 2: best case scenario and not necessarily the likeliest one, and

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Speaker 2: I should re emphasize here that best case scenario still

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Speaker 2: means that we will probably see a massive escalation in

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Speaker 2: violence as the IDF seeks to force more people out

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Speaker 2: of northern Gaza and in the conflict, with a large

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Speaker 2: slice of Gaza permanently wrenched from Palestinian control and hand

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Speaker 2: it over to Israeli settlers, there is no version of

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Speaker 2: what comes next that is not a calamity to the

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Speaker 2: Palestinian people. Now, the signs from within the Israeli government

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Speaker 2: on what a new Trump administration means for them are

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Speaker 2: certainly bullish, you could say, and reading these tea leaves

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Speaker 2: provides very little fuel for optimism. It Mar ben Vere,

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Speaker 2: the Minister of National Security, posted yes with several lesses

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Speaker 2: and an emoji of a flexed bicep in a post

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Speaker 2: on social media. When the first good return started coming

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Speaker 2: in for Trump on the day of the election itself,

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Speaker 2: and a sign of confidence in the coming results, Bibi

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Speaker 2: Netanyahu fired his Defense Minister Jove Gallant, who had been

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Speaker 2: his primary point of contact with the Biden administration. And

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Speaker 2: it's harder to imagine a much more direct sign of

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Speaker 2: what he wants to do than that. Now. I've struggled

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Speaker 2: to present the sweep of possible results of this, and

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Speaker 2: it bears reiterating that the bulk of predictions from Gazans

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Speaker 2: who are plugged into the politics of the region are

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Speaker 2: incredibly negative. Ahmed Fayad, an independent researcher in Israeli affairs

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Speaker 2: who currently resides in central Gaza, told Al Jazeera that

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Speaker 2: he felt Trump's influence would be entirely negative, adding that

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Speaker 2: Trump was a quote more dominating figure than Biden and

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Speaker 2: his influence would allow net Nyahu to quote conquer Gaza quote.

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Speaker 2: Amidst the weakened Palestinian Front and absence of any Arab

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Speaker 2: unity and solidarity, the whole Palestinian cause faces its worst

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Speaker 2: threat yet. Now. What does bear watching is the degree

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Speaker 2: to which BIEB might face threats from his own right flank.

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Speaker 2: Net Nyahu himself is almost certainly on the side of

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Speaker 2: doing what will please his patron Trump all the more,

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Speaker 2: and that would be forcing a quick violent end to

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Speaker 2: the fighting and taking northern Gaza as the spoils of war.

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Speaker 2: But this might bring him into conflict with radicals on

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Speaker 2: his own side, who can't be placated by anything but

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Speaker 2: what they would see as total victory. In the event

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Speaker 2: net Nyahu feels pushed, it is not impossible that he

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Speaker 2: will wind up in conflict with Trump. This has happened before,

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Speaker 2: as BB's sense of self preservation led him to take

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Speaker 2: actions that enraged Trump. The best example of this took

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Speaker 2: place in the immediate aftermath of the twenty two election.

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Speaker 2: If you want to think back to those happier days,

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Speaker 2: b B was again the first world leader to call

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Speaker 2: and offer Biden congratulations on his victory, as he was

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Speaker 2: with Trump. This is a habit for the man who,

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Speaker 2: among other things, is an expert at toadying for favor

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Speaker 2: with US leaders. Trump was livid, and he spoke out

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Speaker 2: about this, telling Israeli journalist Barak Ravid that he believed

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Speaker 2: that he had saved Israel from destruction, and in response,

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Speaker 2: Netnyahoo had stabbed him in the back. I'm going to

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Speaker 2: quote now from an article in the BBC. Mister Trump

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Speaker 2: accused mister Netnyahuo of congratulating too quickly mister Trump's successor,

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden on winning the twenty twenty US election. Mister

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Speaker 2: Trump disputed the election result, though his claims were never upheld.

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Speaker 2: The first person who congratulated Joe Biden was Bbe, the

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Speaker 2: man that I did more for than any other person

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Speaker 2: I dealt with. Bibe could have stayed quiet. He has

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Speaker 2: made a terrible mistake. He was very early, mister Trump said,

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Speaker 2: like earlier than most. I haven't spoken to him since.

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Speaker 2: Fuck him. I actually don't know that he said fuck

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Speaker 2: The actual text of the article says expletive him. But

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Speaker 2: I'm assuming he said fuck him. I think that's probably

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Speaker 2: a fair assumption for me to make. Now, some evidence

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Speaker 2: does suggest that Trump and Bib don't personally get along,

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Speaker 2: as that quote I just read implies, certainly not to

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Speaker 2: the degree that net Nyahu and Biden once did once.

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Speaker 2: I should say this may hinge partly on the fact

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Speaker 2: that Trump really only believes in himself and his own benefit,

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Speaker 2: whereas Joe Biden was a strong and committed believer in

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Speaker 2: Israel and was willing to take actions against his own

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Speaker 2: political self interest in furtherance of that belief. And we've

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Speaker 2: all seen where those actions got him. Just last December,

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Speaker 2: Trump attacked net Nahou at an early campaign rally in

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Speaker 2: New York, saying bib had quote let us down by

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Speaker 2: pulling Israeli support for the operation that killed Iranian General

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Speaker 2: Cossum Solomoni at the last minute. He also criticized the

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Speaker 2: Israeli leader for not being prepared for Hermas's October seventh attack. Now,

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Speaker 2: I want to be clear here that these divisions between

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Speaker 2: both men are blisteringly unlikely to mean anything that approaches

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Speaker 2: relief for the Palestinian people, at least in the near term.

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Speaker 2: The immediate and probably long term future of Gaza is

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Speaker 2: much bleaker today than it was a few weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: The Guardian recently published an article interviewing former CIA director

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Speaker 2: and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. He predicted Trump would give

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Speaker 2: Bibe a blank check for aggression, which might invite the

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Speaker 2: possibility of open war with Iran. Now that's the kind

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Speaker 2: of thing that can lead one to panic, especially when

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Speaker 2: you assume a guy like Panetta is privy to a

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Speaker 2: lot of inside information. We may not be, but I'm

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Speaker 2: actually not really sure that he is. I don't see

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Speaker 2: any evidence from this article that Panetta is speaking from

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Speaker 2: direct personal knowledge about extant plans to carry out an attack. Instead,

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Speaker 2: he quoted Trump's description of the call that Trump had

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Speaker 2: had with bb before the election, telling net Yahoo, do

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Speaker 2: whatever you have to do. So Leon may just be

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Speaker 2: working from the same information the rest of us have

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Speaker 2: and coming to a somewhat different conclusion. I'm not as

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Speaker 2: sure as he is about an imminent attack on Iran

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Speaker 2: because Trump campaigned heavily on ending wars, and while I

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Speaker 2: don't credit Trump is a particularly honest man, I do

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Speaker 2: think he sees his personal benefit right now in being

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Speaker 2: able to portray himself as a peacemaker, in part because

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Speaker 2: he has so much domestically he wants to do, and

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Speaker 2: so much else internationally he wants to do. Right expending

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Speaker 2: a bunch of political capital, dealing with the kinds of

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Speaker 2: protests and unrest and even anger from his base that

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Speaker 2: a war with Iran would mean, especially once it gets

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Speaker 2: bogged down in the kind of violence that would come

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Speaker 2: with that. He may not and likely doesn't see that

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Speaker 2: as being of benefit to him. Now, that doesn't mean

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Speaker 2: it will never happen. It doesn't mean his calculus won't change.

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Speaker 2: I do foresee some situations in which Trump might decide

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Speaker 2: that his personal benefit is in there being a wider

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Speaker 2: ground conflict with Iran that US forces get drawn into.

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Speaker 2: You know, we'll talk a little bit about some of

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Speaker 2: the possibilities around this, and we're getting outside of the

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Speaker 2: realm of kind of established fact at this point, but

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Speaker 2: I do think it's worth considering some of this. But

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Speaker 2: first consider these ads. So, when we talk about the

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Speaker 2: possibility of a ground conflict with Iran starting between Israel

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Speaker 2: and Iran, but almost inevitably drawing in more US forces,

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Speaker 2: the unknowns and unknown knowns in this situation are pretty staggering.

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Speaker 2: If I let myself analyze every possibility, my mind can

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Speaker 2: go to some dark places. Trump sees war with Iran

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Speaker 2: as a negative. Now I'm quite sure, But how would

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Speaker 2: he feel about it in the wake of, say, a

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Speaker 2: Musk centered plan to in the federal reserve and tank

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Speaker 2: the dollar, in the wake of the changes that all

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Speaker 2: of his immigration policies would make on the price of food,

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Speaker 2: the Pression era levels of inflation and unemployment returning to

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Speaker 2: the United States, and the attendant social unrest that that

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Speaker 2: would cause. If Americans find themselves on the verge of

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Speaker 2: food rights, perhaps Trump would gamble on war being the

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Speaker 2: best distraction he could manage. It's certainly not impossible. Now,

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Speaker 2: I don't know how useful it is to bury myself

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Speaker 2: in theoreticals and probabilities. The known threats are dire enough,

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Speaker 2: and they demand full time awareness in order to attempt

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Speaker 2: to counter and endure. So instead of spiraling, I'm going

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Speaker 2: to leave you today with the words of another Ghazan,

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Speaker 2: Mohammed R. Mausch. He's a journalist who wrote an article

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Speaker 2: for MSNBC right after the election titled My family and

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Speaker 2: I Survived the War in Gaza. We know Trump's America

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Speaker 2: won't save us, and here's Mohammed For us. The election

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Speaker 2: of Donald Trump isn't just a blip on the political

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Speaker 2: radar or a shift in foreign policy. It's a challenge

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Speaker 2: to sustain existence while the world seems intent on erasing us.

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Speaker 2: It's about surviving seventy seven years under occupation and over

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Speaker 2: a year of all ongoing genocide, the very genocide I

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Speaker 2: barely survived last December, when my family and I, including

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Speaker 2: my elderly parents and three year old son, were buried

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Speaker 2: under the rubble of what was once our home after

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Speaker 2: it was struck by an Israeli fired US missal. The

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Speaker 2: date December seventh, twenty twenty three. Our bones were crushed

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Speaker 2: between layers of concrete and twisted metal as we spent

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Speaker 2: hours in the dark, buried together and praying to be

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Speaker 2: pulled out in one piece. The trauma of that night,

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Speaker 2: in both its physical and emotional toll, of my son's small,

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Speaker 2: fragile hand clinging to mind, comes back to me now

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Speaker 2: as Trump prepares to take power once more. I've seen

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Speaker 2: how American political leader's toy with the idea of change.

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Speaker 2: How they dress up their campaigns with grand ideas about

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Speaker 2: peace and justice, yet each president brushes off our reality.

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Speaker 2: Barack Obama promised hope and change we could believe in,

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Speaker 2: yet we got more bombs. Joe Biden offered a different approach,

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Speaker 2: pledging and yielding support for Israel, leaving us to live

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Speaker 2: through even more horror. Vice President Kamala Harris Niceties included

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Speaker 2: no concrete promises to protect Palestinians, but she did pledge

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Speaker 2: to continue financial support for Israel, and Trump's blundness as

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Speaker 2: he promises to come back swinging reminds us not to

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Speaker 2: hold out hope for change. So, you know, not much

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Speaker 2: optimism here, but I do really recommend reading that article

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Speaker 2: that MSNBC published. You know, it's bleak, but important, especially

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Speaker 2: given the fact that you know we may be soon

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Speaker 2: entering a world where it would be harder for people

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Speaker 2: like Muhammad to express their feelings and their truth to

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Speaker 2: an audience. I don't think it's unlikely that a clamp

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Speaker 2: down is coming on some of these things. It's hard

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Speaker 2: to say how extensive it will be, but there's a

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Speaker 2: threat that you know, Israel and their backers see in

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Speaker 2: the way that public sympathy has built so quickly for

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Speaker 2: Gaza in a way that wasn't present with a lot

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Speaker 2: of previous stages of violence between Israel in Gaza. Right now,

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Speaker 2: this is the result of a lot of videos spreading

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Speaker 2: on social media. It's the result on of voices from

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Speaker 2: Gaza getting out and getting to people in a way

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Speaker 2: they really hadn't before. And so one thing that does

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Speaker 2: worry me greatly when I think about what's going to

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Speaker 2: happen in Gaza under President Trump is not just what's

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Speaker 2: going to happen to the people living there right now,

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Speaker 2: but what's going to happen to their ability to tell

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Speaker 2: their story, to get information out to the rest of us.

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Speaker 2: That is very much an open question at this moment,

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Speaker 2: but it's certainly one that should be on your lips,

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Speaker 2: and it's one that we will be investigating here at

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Speaker 2: cool Zone as long as we're able to continue doing

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Speaker 2: that until next time. I'm Robert Evans. We'll be back

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Speaker 2: tomorrow and every other day reporting on you know, the world.

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Speaker 2: It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.

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Speaker 2: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website

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Speaker 2: Coolzonemedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeart

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Speaker 2: Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

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Speaker 2: You can now find sources for it Could Happen here

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Speaker 2: listed directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening,