1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:10,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: Daybreak GISIA podcast. I'm Doug Prisner. You can join Brian 3 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: Curtis and myself for the stories, making news and moving 4 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: markets in the APEC region. You can subscribe to the 5 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: show anywhere you get your podcast and always on Bloomberg Radio, 6 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Let's take 7 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:30,319 Speaker 1: a closer look now at the ten said story and 8 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 1: also while we're add it, look ahead to the earnings 9 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: from Ali Baba. Robert Lee is with us. He is 10 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst, joining us from our studios in 11 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,519 Speaker 1: Hong Kong. Robert, thank you so much. Talk to me 12 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 1: about the way in which you saw the ten cent results. 13 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: What do we know now that we didn't before? 14 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 2: Okay, thanks for having me on. Good question. Expectations into 15 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 2: ten Cents results were quite high. It was well known 16 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 2: that their gaming business was seeing a renaissance, largely driven 17 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 2: by you know, very stellar strength coming through one particularly 18 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 2: particular title called d NF Mobile, and indeed that's what 19 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 2: they delivered on so the gaming on the gaming front, 20 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 2: they actually came in the head of expectations and that 21 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 2: they adjusted operating income level they were seven percent head 22 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 2: benefiting from a low attacks rate. Overall, they were close 23 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 2: to twenty percent ahead at the bottom line, so these 24 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 2: were very strong numbers. So whilst expectations were high, you know, 25 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,399 Speaker 2: they did smash on most metrics. I think the only 26 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 2: area of potential medium term concern is their fintech business. 27 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 2: Fintech which they're lumping with their cloud computing business. Cloud 28 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 2: is quite small for them. By the way, did miss 29 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 2: expectations on the top line for the second quarter on 30 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 2: the row and there are you know, read a cross 31 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 2: to the state of consumer health within the Chinese economy there. 32 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 2: But again I think that was anticipated, well known and 33 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 2: that business actually beat at the margin level due to 34 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 2: a mixshift and with some cost cutting. So overall, you know, 35 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 2: I think they were good numb. 36 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: These days, when you talk about the cloud, you talk 37 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: about artificial intelligence usually, is that the case with ten Cent? 38 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 3: Now? 39 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think compare and contrast with a lot of 40 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,799 Speaker 2: their local peers or even peers you know in the 41 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 2: US or whatever parts of the world they've really been playing. 42 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 2: I would describe it the long game in AI. It's 43 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,919 Speaker 2: been conspicuous. You know, the lack of comment on AI 44 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 2: in their earnings release is really conspicuous compared to a 45 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 2: lot of others. I mean, absolutely, they're investing in AI, 46 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 2: They've got a cloud business. There's a lot of steady 47 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 2: investment going on there, but their focus is more on 48 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 2: areas they can generate a more immediate return. So I 49 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 2: think actually that's to their benefit. And given the way 50 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 2: we see that the whole AI and cloud story evolving 51 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 2: at the moment, and particularly in China, there are price 52 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,359 Speaker 2: wars in both sectors, I might add, which some people 53 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 2: may not be aware of. So I think in taking 54 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 2: a sort of longer term view, in taking a sort 55 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 2: of slow and steady pace and not being caught up 56 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 2: with the hype and hyperbole, I think that really been 57 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 2: to that benefit. And they're clearly delivering in the other 58 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:04,359 Speaker 2: coueries of the business. 59 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 1: You were talking a moment ago about the weakness and 60 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: the Chinese consumer. That really shouldn't come as much of 61 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: a surprise, but I'm curious as to whether or not 62 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 1: there are variations across different demographics. I mean, if I'm 63 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: talking about gaming, I'm thinking in my own mind that 64 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 1: you're looking a little bit at the younger crowd, and 65 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: maybe they have a little bit more spending capacity. I 66 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, is there some differentiation across the demographics. 67 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 2: Again, we could talk about this for a long time. 68 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 2: There are a few contradictory factors here, because I think 69 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 2: it's well known the level of youth unemployment is in 70 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 2: China is actually quite high. However, I think, you know, 71 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 2: and as the father of a teenage son myself, I 72 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 2: think he would spend his last dime on games. You know, 73 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 2: games is probably the sole focus of his life at 74 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 2: the moment. You know, he is dating that he's a 75 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 2: bit ahead of his dating games. So once he discovers 76 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 2: the other members of the opposite sex, perhaps things will change. 77 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 2: But I think, yeah, gaming is a major pastime in China, 78 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 2: as with much of Asia, and yes it is mainly 79 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 2: a younger demographic, but there are the odd people sort 80 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 2: of closer to our age that indulge in it as well. 81 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 2: But the slowdown on the Chinese consumer side has been 82 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:21,039 Speaker 2: known for some time, and I think how Tencent compares 83 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 2: or contrast with Ali Barbar is Ali Baba as far 84 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 2: more exposed to big tick, the purchase of big ticket items, 85 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 2: whereas a lot of Tencent's fintech business is more revolves 86 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 2: around day to day spend, spending on lunches, coffees, taxes, 87 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,479 Speaker 2: that type of thing, and you might argue that's less 88 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 2: discretioning nature, it's more essential and therefore should hold up 89 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 2: a little bit better in relative terms in a consumer 90 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 2: in a slow and consumer environment. So again, it doesn't 91 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 2: make it immune from slow in consumer strength, but as 92 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 2: I said, I think it makes it slightly more resilient. 93 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 2: But from our point of view, the key thing is 94 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:56,920 Speaker 2: the margin on that side was ahead. 95 00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,799 Speaker 1: So I'm glad you brought up Ali Baba because tomorrow 96 00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: more in US before the Opening Bill, will get the 97 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,919 Speaker 1: numbers the ADRs will trade, I guess before the shares 98 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:07,919 Speaker 1: in Hong Kong. Is there anything that we should know 99 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 1: about what Baba has been up to and what we 100 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: may learn tomorrow? 101 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 2: Okay, very briefly, I mean strategically, they were going to 102 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 2: spin off their businesses a year ago that ended a 103 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty degree about turn on that they 104 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:25,280 Speaker 2: have been putting huge effort into try and stabilize and 105 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 2: regrow their market share, having come under you know, intense 106 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 2: competition from low cost disruptors like Sheen and Timu. So absolutely, 107 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 2: I would imagine we should see evidence of them, as 108 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 2: I said, stabilizing or regaining some share, but at what 109 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 2: cost to the margin. So I think that's the big 110 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 2: risk point or danger point that people should focus on there. 111 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 2: You know, it's it's intensely competitive, and again given the 112 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 2: backdrop of slow and consumer growth, so there's a risk 113 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 2: that they could miss on margin front. And also from 114 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 2: their strategic point of view, they AI and cloud computing 115 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 2: as the core drivers of their future growth. As I 116 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 2: mentioned a moment ago, both those sectors are locked in 117 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 2: pretty vicious price wars at the moment, so again there's 118 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 2: a potential negative margin impact there. 119 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: It's very interesting because we were talking about kind of 120 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 1: the e commerce side of the business. I'm equally curious 121 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 1: about what's going on with digital media and entertainment at 122 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,480 Speaker 1: Ali Baba. Since we were talking kind of about the 123 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 1: game market in China. Is the same trend going to 124 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 1: show up when you're talking about kind of the pullback 125 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: and spending, is it going to show up in digital 126 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: media and entertainment as well? 127 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 2: So I guess again sort of focus more on the 128 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:41,159 Speaker 2: game front or even some of the streaming service. So 129 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 2: there's a company called it which is essentially the Netflix 130 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 2: of China. You may say, yes, but these en markets 131 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:50,840 Speaker 2: have built out very rapidly in the last ten to 132 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 2: fifteen years, and there there are a sort of saturated 133 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 2: point at the moment. So the growth out look with 134 00:06:55,520 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 2: Annam isn't particularly you know, bullish, I would say, And 135 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 2: again they are subject to slow in consumer So we 136 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 2: are seeing heightened levels of competition in those sectors as 137 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 2: companies fight it out again to either retain their market 138 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 2: share or build market share, and I think, you know, 139 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:17,239 Speaker 2: to the detriment of margin again, So that's a trend 140 00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 2: we're seeing on that media and entertainment side as well. 141 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 2: So I guess the question is, you know, where are 142 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 2: real growth drivers in China at the moment. I think 143 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 2: AI will ultimately evolve into one, but you know, given 144 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 2: we're locked in a price or at the moment, no 145 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 2: one's going to make profit this year or next in it. 146 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know if you saw this in the 147 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: US station, we learned that Michael Burry further increased his 148 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 1: stake in Ali Baba while at the same time interestingly 149 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 1: reducing his overall equity portfolio in half. That's quite a 150 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 1: dramatic cut. Did that happen during Q two very quickly? Here, Robert, 151 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: When we talked about ten Cent in the past and 152 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: Ali Baba, there was always this looming cloud of a 153 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: little bit more on the regulatory front. Is that dissipated 154 00:07:57,960 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 1: completely very quickly? 155 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 4: Okay. 156 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 2: Buzzword of the year has been new productive forces. The 157 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 2: Chinese government looks to the tech sector as a major 158 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 2: driver of future economic growth. Ali Baba and Tencent are 159 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 2: the two largest companies with bi edance and Huawei's. 160 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: Way as well. 161 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 2: They're stalwarts of the economy. There therefore need to be 162 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 2: on good relations with them. Therefore, the regulatory environment and 163 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 2: outlook is more stable and should remain that way. 164 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 1: Robert, it's always a pleasure. Thanks for making time to 165 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: chat with us here on debreak Asia. That is Robert Lee, 166 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst, joining us from Hong Kong. 167 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: Looking at what we heard today from ten Cent and 168 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 1: what we may hear tomorrow from Ali Baba. Let's bring 169 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: in Kyu Jin, she's in Beijing. Good of you to 170 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: join us, aren't you normally based in London? 171 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 4: I am except for the summer holidays. 172 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 1: All right, are you having a good summer in China? 173 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 4: Very hot as you can imagine. 174 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 1: So what's your view on the economy? How well is 175 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 1: it doing? Just anecdotally. 176 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 5: Anecdotally and whether it's in the data or anecdotes or 177 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 5: micro level or macro level, it's all doing pretty pretty 178 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 5: poorly compared to China's economic potential. 179 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: So you're based in London, and I'm sure you're being 180 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: very good about keeping up with a lot of the 181 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: economic indicators. Is it worse than you imagine? 182 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 5: It is getting even worse than we had previous expected. 183 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,680 Speaker 5: And of course I speak frequently to policymakers and to entrepreneurs, 184 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 5: and I spend a third of my time in China, 185 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 5: so you. 186 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 4: Feel that on the ground. 187 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 5: It's particularly frustrating, given that I still believe there are 188 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,599 Speaker 5: lots of things that can be done to save the economy, 189 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 5: to put the economy on a very normal path, which 190 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,200 Speaker 5: is going to be pretty good, given that there's so 191 00:09:56,280 --> 00:10:00,679 Speaker 5: much untapped potential. I mean, China's nowhere near done with 192 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 5: economic reforms or economic growth, moving it along to the 193 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:09,239 Speaker 5: kind of more rich income status. I think the approximate 194 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:12,559 Speaker 5: factors which we talk about is really real estate dragging. 195 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 4: Down investment, dragging down confidence. 196 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 5: But I think there's also been a deeper issue at 197 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 5: the heart of this, which is a shift away from 198 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 5: economics as front and center objective into other issues like 199 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 5: national security and social considerations. 200 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 1: One of the things that I was just thinking about 201 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 1: today this move on the part of the central bank 202 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 1: to do what may have been called in the version 203 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 1: that we got in the United States and in Europe, 204 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 1: quantitative easing. How well is that working, or maybe why 205 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: isn't it. 206 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 5: Well? If you look at the Chinese economy, it's not 207 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 5: so the overall economy. That's to say, it's not as 208 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:55,080 Speaker 5: sensitive to interest rate cuts, and so there's room to cut, 209 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 5: and you know you can do that further. But monetary 210 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 5: policy has been less and less effective over the last 211 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 5: few years, and part of the reason comes bound back 212 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 5: to a fundamental institutional. 213 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 4: Constraint, which is the financial system. 214 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 5: If you look at the structure of financial system, many 215 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:14,439 Speaker 5: institutions are state related, state bank dominant, and they prefer 216 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 5: to land to state enterprises. So when you actually get 217 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 5: to get the credit to where it's most needed, and 218 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 5: the interest rate cuts, the real economy. That's to say, 219 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 5: the private enterprise, small medium firms, their cost of capital 220 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 5: is extremely high, so it doesn't really work for them, 221 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 5: but they are the ones that need or are sensitive 222 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 5: to these interest rate costs. 223 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 1: Is there a real risk if there's going to be 224 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 1: a protracted problem with deflation and the type of situation 225 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 1: that it will be extremely difficult from which to emerge. 226 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 5: Well, Currently the deflation is primarily driven by food prices 227 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 5: to a certain extent, and we're not seeing the kind 228 00:11:54,679 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 5: of the repeated patterns of ultimate deflationary trends quite some yet. Yes, 229 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 5: if this prolongs, prolongs for a more period of time, 230 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 5: longer period of time, then there could be an overall 231 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 5: level of deflation, which the government is trying to counter. 232 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 5: If you look at more specifically the service sector that's 233 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 5: actually doing pretty okay, there's a greater demand in services. 234 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 5: If you look at the recent performance of the Chinese economy, 235 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 5: whatever has to do with outward oriented economic sectors like exports, 236 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 5: like manufacturing, like high tech, it's doing okay. Wherever it's 237 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:34,960 Speaker 5: related to internal demand issues, it's much much weaker. I 238 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 5: wouldn't worry about deflation just yet. But again, a longer 239 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:41,959 Speaker 5: and more sustained period of time that becomes a real problem. 240 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 1: Should we be concerned about a lost generation of young 241 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 1: people in China? 242 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,839 Speaker 5: Possibly, but I would say that that's also global phenomenon 243 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 5: as well. The high unemployment rate currently is still a cyclical, 244 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:00,559 Speaker 5: potentially a cyclical phenomenon. I think that if you look 245 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 5: at the number of jobs that are available, there are 246 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 5: still many, many jobs available in manufacturing, something like twenty 247 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 5: five million until twenty twenty five, hundreds of thousands of 248 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:15,199 Speaker 5: talent gap in semiconductors. But there's really a skill education mismatch. 249 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 5: These young children our study a lot, their parents spend 250 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 5: a lot of money financing their education. They can't find 251 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 5: the jobs they want because structure of the economy is 252 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 5: not geared towards them. To open up the service sectors 253 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 5: promote vocational training education, and I think we can avoid that. 254 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:36,080 Speaker 1: You were talking a moment ago about the government spending 255 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:39,320 Speaker 1: heavily on kind of military hardware and the like. I 256 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 1: know you're an economist by training, but to what extent 257 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 1: is geopolitics now becoming a factor, not just in terms 258 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 1: of building up military hardware, but in the possibility that 259 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 1: we could be looking at or China could be looking 260 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: at some new tariffs from the US. 261 00:13:56,240 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 5: All of that, Joe political ships have really shaped the 262 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 5: direction of the Chinese economy, focusing on high tech. And 263 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,679 Speaker 5: this is not just the military aspect of it, but 264 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:12,200 Speaker 5: also the pursuit of technological independence because there's an existential 265 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 5: fear not only the Chinese government also Chinese enterprises that 266 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,200 Speaker 5: they will be cut off from the critical components that 267 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 5: are needed, that they need, and so there's been a 268 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 5: focus on a high tech and innovation. Of course that 269 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 5: is not big enough despite its success in China to 270 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 5: offset the real estate downball and of course. 271 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 4: Terrafs that's going to be a looming theme. 272 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 5: But we're seeing lots of trade organization from dam to 273 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 5: Mexico and other potential places to counter some of. 274 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 4: That trade tension. 275 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 1: Great conversation, Thank you so much, Kayu Jin from Beijing 276 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: joining us here. We'll have to have you back for 277 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: some more conversation. And her book is The New China Playbook. 278 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 1: It's a worthwhile read. You can get that at your 279 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 1: local bookstore. Jamie Bathmurray is chief financial officer at Creative Planning, 280 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: joining us from Kansas City. So are you a Chiefs fan, 281 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 1: I would I would hope, I would imagine that the 282 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 1: answer is yes, right. 283 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 6: Oh, absolutely, born and raised, lived all over the world, 284 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 6: lived in Asia. But being a NC Chiefs fan hearing 285 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 6: the Taylor swift is juicing the revenue by thirty percent, 286 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:28,720 Speaker 6: yet you have to love it. 287 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. So when you look at the equity 288 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 1: trade right now, what's going to juice the returns for 289 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 1: the equity market? 290 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean what typically juices the returns? 291 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 6: I mean keeping calm and carrying on and taking advantage 292 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 6: of volatility brought on by others in their panic selling. 293 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 6: I mean specifically in the Asian markets. Obviously the dislocation 294 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 6: that occurred last Monday in the carry trade, the yin 295 00:15:56,360 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 6: carry trade, and really, you know what happened then is 296 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,119 Speaker 6: what's kind of at the core of our overall investment philosophy, 297 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 6: that the traders, the short term traders, are punished, but 298 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 6: long term investors can actually benefit from it, using to 299 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 6: volatility to actually rebalance move money from more conservative assets 300 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 6: into aggressive assets, not making a specific market call, but 301 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 6: just that redeployment from a conservative bucket to an aggressive bucket. 302 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 6: When markets have these occasional dislocations like this that we 303 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 6: haven't seen in several years. It usually works out in 304 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 6: the short run, and it always works out in the 305 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 6: long run. And again we're happy to report that it 306 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 6: did work out in the short run here and we 307 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 6: had four of the best trading days of the year 308 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 6: right on the heels of the volatility. So the hot 309 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:45,359 Speaker 6: dot is it's always keeping calm and carrying on when 310 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 6: others are dislocated because of fear greed. 311 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 1: We heard from a former BOJ member in the last week. 312 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 1: He was saying that the BOJ is probably not going 313 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: to be able to move until next March. So if 314 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 1: you accept that notion, give mere sense of how well 315 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 1: the Japanese economy is performing right now and whether or 316 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 1: not there's a risk that things deteriorate. 317 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean being you know, the very you know, 318 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 6: a localized issue became a very global macro issue. So 319 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 6: it's kind of forcing the bo j's hand as they 320 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 6: were finally kind of making an adjustment of this zero 321 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,399 Speaker 6: bound or negative bound interest rate environment that they've been 322 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 6: they've been in for for decades. You know, it's kind 323 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 6: of going against the grain of global central banks. You know, 324 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 6: the need to you know, reduce interest rates, but now 325 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 6: that kind of been forced to be put on hold. 326 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 6: So yes, it's really really it can be a challenge. 327 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 6: It could still out the economy more after we finally 328 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 6: see momentum and in seeing kind growth and especially growth 329 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 6: in that the equity markets that we hadn't seen in 330 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:54,120 Speaker 6: quite some time. 331 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 3: So so yeah, these. 332 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,159 Speaker 6: Macro concerns are are kind of forcing their hand, pushing 333 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 6: them into a corner that would lead to further deterioration 334 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 6: in the overall market. 335 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,199 Speaker 1: And the number of conversations that I've had on this 336 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 1: program with guests that know Japan very well point to 337 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,560 Speaker 1: the problems in China and they make that connection as 338 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 1: long as China remains weak, Japan is going to be 339 00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:18,119 Speaker 1: hurt by that. Would you agree with that? Imagine you would. 340 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 3: To an extent. 341 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:24,360 Speaker 6: Yes, But you know, again again speaking for our particular 342 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 6: client base, you know, we manage approximately three hundred and 343 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 6: fifty billion dollars in assets, and everything we do is 344 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 6: driven by the historical, empirical data and academic research, and 345 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,479 Speaker 6: so we want that global presence. We're actually encouraging clients 346 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 6: to stay in the international markets, stay in the emerging markets. 347 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:42,320 Speaker 6: You're not running from them, not not chasing the hot 348 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 6: dots of domestic technology. And yes, well while mainland China's 349 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,360 Speaker 6: suffering some policies, you know, the policies that could be 350 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 6: you know, argued as non growth oriented, they're not the 351 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 6: alpha dog they were before. I mean you factoring kind 352 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,199 Speaker 6: of you know, the em world is kind of becoming 353 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 6: more more ulti pooler. And yes, you know mainland Chine 354 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 6: dominated just a few years ago, but you know, India's 355 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 6: caught up, got on parody, Taiwan's caught up, gotten parody, 356 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 6: and so you know, a really healthy kind of diversification 357 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:16,399 Speaker 6: play within that. And so hopefully even though mainland China's 358 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 6: set version in Japan being so close to the world's 359 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 6: second largest economy, I feel like the flows to other 360 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,439 Speaker 6: markets kind of within that segment or at least comfort 361 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 6: with our investors, and we're encouraging them to maintain or 362 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 6: extend those positions. We'll hopefully be seeing as the positive 363 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 6: and not nearly a dependent at mainland China as it 364 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 6: has been on the path. And again, just the overall 365 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 6: dynamic of emerging market indexes in those other markets catching up. 366 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 6: I think his testament to hopefully be able to reduce 367 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:48,680 Speaker 6: that overall dependence. 368 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 1: So away from EM, how are you feeling about the 369 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:54,120 Speaker 1: US And if you could talk to me about the 370 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:58,960 Speaker 1: proportion of EM relative to let's say, US domestic equities, 371 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 1: I mean, what's the balance for you right now? 372 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean we, as I mentioned, we let the historical, 373 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 6: empirical data and academic research try to drive all of 374 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 6: our decision making in the public markets. Really just trying 375 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:13,959 Speaker 6: to avoid you know, that hot dot chasing. 376 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 3: You know, it's like. 377 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,959 Speaker 6: That that that that friend that's always wearing the hottest 378 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 6: trends or you know, working at you know, you know, 379 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,479 Speaker 6: the the hot store of the buckles, you know, and 380 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 6: you know that late nineties had frosted tips hair and 381 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 6: then constantly changing. Well, you're just chasing the trend of 382 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 6: the moment, and you're probably losing out on the accreted 383 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:36,359 Speaker 6: value of prudence over long run. And so we're telling 384 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 6: our clients stick with it. Yes, it has been the 385 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 6: decade of large cap domestic US growth, but again, success 386 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 6: is measured in decades, not a ten year period, not 387 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:47,680 Speaker 6: a five year period. 388 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 3: And I'm shorter than that, and you know, you only 389 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:50,640 Speaker 3: have to step back to. 390 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 6: The decade before you kind of the first decade of 391 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 6: the New millennium where for an entire ten year period, 392 00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 6: the S and P five hundred was down about ten percent, 393 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 6: you know, large cap growth. Domestic US large cap growth 394 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 6: was down a full thirty three percent. Yeah, well, emerging 395 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 6: markets was up almost two hundred percent. Small caps are 396 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 6: up one hundred percent. So you have to keep calm, 397 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 6: you know, not chase the hot dot, and make sure 398 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,919 Speaker 6: you have a globally diversified portfolio based upon global market capitalization. 399 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 1: But to be fair, everyone has their own individual time horizons, 400 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,640 Speaker 1: and we may not have ten years. I may need 401 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: to capture, you know, a return let's say in half 402 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,120 Speaker 1: that period of time. Let's say I'm looking at five 403 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,639 Speaker 1: years out before. You know, is a part of my 404 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 1: calculus in decision making when you consider the AI trade. 405 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:36,879 Speaker 1: I mean, that's really been a big part of the 406 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 1: narrative here in the States for much of twenty twenty four. 407 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,680 Speaker 1: Is this something that you still think and in terms 408 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 1: of the way that you analyze trends and look at 409 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 1: the fundamentals, all the research that you bring to the table, 410 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 1: do you still buy into AI? 411 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,440 Speaker 3: Well, again, the trends, like those hot dots they come 412 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 3: and go. What's vogue today is out of fashion tomorrow. 413 00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,679 Speaker 6: You know. Well, when disco was hot and it was 414 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:01,919 Speaker 6: you know, the eighties and it was ground you know, 415 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:03,639 Speaker 6: listening to the pearl jam. 416 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,440 Speaker 3: Moving on from there, and so the hot dot is 417 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 3: always changing. 418 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:09,439 Speaker 6: So you just can't get you cannot get married to 419 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 6: whatever the hot dot of the moment is. Yes, you 420 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 6: participate in it, but you don't you're not beholden to 421 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,919 Speaker 6: the individual names. You know, just right before we came on, 422 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,680 Speaker 6: you guys were referencing Cisco's earnings. Well, Cisco is still 423 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 6: essentially seventy percent below it's it's it's market peak during 424 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 6: the last technology bubble we had, but the overall markets 425 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,119 Speaker 6: are up hundreds of percents over that time. And so 426 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,720 Speaker 6: you ride the waves of the momentum. Yes, you know, 427 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:36,680 Speaker 6: you know, is will AI you know, materially move move 428 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 6: the economy the world forward maybe regardless, you know it, 429 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 6: just just as the Internet, you know again, eventually moved 430 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 6: the world forward. But there were these moments where it 431 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,159 Speaker 6: was challenged at the time period and not getting focused 432 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 6: on the individual names will win out one hundred percent 433 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 6: of time over long run. 434 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:54,480 Speaker 1: We'll leave it there, Jamie, always a pleasure. Thanks for 435 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 1: joining us. Jamie Batmar, who is a Chief investment officer 436 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 1: at Creative Planning, joining us from Kansas City. This has 437 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 1: been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the stories 438 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 1: making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. Visit 439 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more episodes 440 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to the 441 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 1: podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and 442 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:24,400 Speaker 1: always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg 443 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 1: Business App.