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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go from throwing out, we're saying

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Speaker 1: it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 2: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to Swayne.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate combine you want to fall and

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Speaker 1: we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by

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Speaker 4: bet MGM, the King of sports books. It is time

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Speaker 4: for NFL Best Bets for NFL Week seventeen. The regular crew,

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Speaker 4: the OG Crew back in the saddle. We have Brandon Anderson,

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Speaker 4: Vegas Refund aka Luke Swayne, and we have our friend

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Speaker 4: Joe Galanti Anytime Touchdown Guru himself. Hope you all had

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Speaker 4: a great hall and we're rolling into the new year

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Speaker 4: with this Best Bets podcast before Week eighteen. We've got

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Speaker 4: Week seventeen this week. You can find, if you haven't

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Speaker 4: done so already, the video version of the Best Bets

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Speaker 4: Pod on our Action Network YouTube page. Once you hit

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Speaker 4: subscribe there, please give the video a like and we

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Speaker 4: appreciate the five star ratings and reviews. On Apple, Spotify

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Speaker 4: or wherever you listen to your podcasts, be sure to download

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Speaker 4: the free award winning Action Network app. You can follow Luke,

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Speaker 4: Jill and Brandon there individually, and you can also find

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Speaker 4: us on the Action Network Discord server in the episode

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Speaker 4: description if you want to hop in during the games

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Speaker 4: loaded one o'clock Slate ten games this week, guys will

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Speaker 4: be in there chopping it up. Great way to build

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Speaker 4: your community as well. In the NFL Gambling World six

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Speaker 4: and three week when we had the Musical Chairs episode

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Speaker 4: during Christmas Week, and then you add a two to

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Speaker 4: zer week from the look Ahead Spots as well in

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Speaker 4: week sixteen. So all in all we are eighty six

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Speaker 4: and seventy two for the season when you compile best

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Speaker 4: bets and the look Ahead Spots. I turn it over

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Speaker 4: to you, Brandon Anderson, for your first best bet of

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Speaker 4: Week seventeen. What do you have for us?

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Speaker 5: All right, well, I am back. I am live from

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Speaker 5: my bunker here in North Dakota if you're watching the video,

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Speaker 5: but my heart is still in Chicago, So I'm going

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Speaker 5: back to Chicago. Give me the Bears minus three against

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Speaker 5: the Falcons. Chicago, I just think is better at mostly

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Speaker 5: everything than Atlanta. I'm not really too sure what Atlanta

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Speaker 5: isposedly better at and this line is effectively calling these

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Speaker 5: teams about even with each other. I don't think they are.

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Speaker 5: I think that Chicago has been clearly the better team

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Speaker 5: by season long DV away. They're ahead of Atlanta and

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Speaker 5: offense and defense, special teams, that's everything. Atlanta is built

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Speaker 5: to run the football. They rank twenty first running the football.

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Speaker 5: The Bears are tenth. So the Bears are better at

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Speaker 5: the thing Atlanta is trying to do. Atlanta is built

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Speaker 5: to stop the run. They're pretty good at it. The

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Speaker 5: Bears are better at it. I think too. There's a

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Speaker 5: real home field advantage here for Icgo. We're probably looking

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Speaker 5: at weather in the thirties, probably twelve to fifteen mili

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Speaker 5: hour wins. It's the windy city. Atlanta has been bad

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Speaker 5: on the road. They are two and five on the

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Speaker 5: road this season. They lost to the Titans, to the Cardinals,

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Speaker 5: the Panthers. You may recognize those teams as out of

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Speaker 5: the playoffs picking near the top of the draft. Atlanta

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Speaker 5: is averaging under fourteen points a game on the road

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Speaker 5: this season, and Chicago's won four in a row at

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Speaker 5: home twenty five points a game for them. Offense is

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Speaker 5: a lot better at home as well. And really, if

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Speaker 5: you look more recently, the Bears are a team that

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Speaker 5: I've been backing. They were one of those look aheads

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Speaker 5: that you mentioned, Brendan. They had the game against the

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Speaker 5: Cardinals last week, coasted out to a huge lead early.

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Speaker 5: Bears last six games are the number one DVA defense

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Speaker 5: against the pass. They're number three dvay overall defensively, and

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Speaker 5: then number five just as a team by DVA like

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Speaker 5: the Bears are good.

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Speaker 1: The Bears are.

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Speaker 5: A good football team right now, and I just don't

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Speaker 5: think that books have quite caught up to that yet.

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Speaker 5: And you know, we gotta do it. We're gonna fade

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Speaker 5: the NFC South. I think du Bundo was on a

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Speaker 5: couple weeks ago telling us the stats that I'm coming

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Speaker 5: back with here NFC South and non division games sixteen

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Speaker 5: twenty sixteen to twenty six against the spread thirty eight percent.

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Speaker 5: Atlanta is two to eight in non division games this

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Speaker 5: season against the spread. And really important trend that you

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Speaker 5: need to know for this week in week sixteen to eighteen,

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Speaker 5: teams that are in must win spots, and I'll explain

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Speaker 5: how I'm defining that they getting too much credit by

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Speaker 5: the books here. So that's Atlanta in the spot. Now

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Speaker 5: here's the trend. Teams that are winning forty to sixty

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Speaker 5: percent of their games, that's Atlanta that are facing an

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Speaker 5: opponent just a little bit worse five to twenty five

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Speaker 5: percent worse by win raiate. So if you look at

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Speaker 5: that matchup, forty sixty percent win rate versus five to

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Speaker 5: twenty five percent worse, that's the Bears here. In week

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Speaker 5: sixteen to eighteen, those teams like the Falcons are fifty two,

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Speaker 5: one hundred and four and six against the spread, thirty

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Speaker 5: three percent cover rate. And that is not a small sample.

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Speaker 5: That is two decades of saying, hey, when it's at

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Speaker 5: the end of the season and you're like, well, got

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Speaker 5: to pick the Falcons. The Bear's already done. The Falcons

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Speaker 5: need the game here. Books know that we want to

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Speaker 5: think that, and they're adding points into the spread, and

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Speaker 5: I think that that is getting some credit here to

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Speaker 5: Atlanta that they really shouldn't have. And that trend. If

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Speaker 5: you say, okay, well, what if the team that has

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Speaker 5: to win, and what if they won last week, so

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Speaker 5: we're already riding high on them, it's even worse for them.

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Speaker 5: Then they go to twelve, thirty, four, and three, so

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Speaker 5: twenty six percent cover rate fail to cover by touchdown

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Speaker 5: six points. Basically, I think people are just a little

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Speaker 5: too excited about Atlanta. Good good job for them. They

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Speaker 5: beat Indianapolis. I don't really make much of India, sig,

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Speaker 5: don't make much of that game. Chicago's been the better

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Speaker 5: team since September. I honestly think Chicago is good enough

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Speaker 5: right now that they could be in the playoff hunt.

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Speaker 5: But you know, they gave some games away. So if

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Speaker 5: you look at the lines, this is Bears minus three.

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Speaker 5: It's stuck right at that key number. I think this

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Speaker 5: is gonna maybe get to minus two and a half

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Speaker 5: based on where some of the juices trending. If you

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Speaker 5: want to wait, I don't mind waiting to try to

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Speaker 5: get below the key. I'm fine Bears minus three. That's

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Speaker 5: the pick for the pod here. I would make it

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Speaker 5: Bears minus four or better. So give me Chicago, even

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Speaker 5: though I'm in North Dakota. Give my heart in Chicago.

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Speaker 5: Bears minus three.

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Speaker 4: You mentioned the home field component, how it favors the Bears,

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Speaker 4: and just looking through the schedule for the Atlanta Falcons

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Speaker 4: when they are not playing in a dome. Remember that

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Speaker 4: game a few weeks ago against Carolina. Now that was

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Speaker 4: a soggy game, but just god awful. They completely changed.

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Speaker 4: I think they did cover a short number against Arizona

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Speaker 4: or they played a tight game with Arizona. Arizona may

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Speaker 4: have been an underdog in that game, but all in all,

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Speaker 4: I completely agree with the Falcons just being inept outdoors,

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Speaker 4: cold weather in Chicago. Luke swayin, what do you have

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Speaker 4: for a first best bet for Week seventeen?

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Dolphins right now again three

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Speaker 3: and a half at the Ravens on Sunday. For some reason,

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Speaker 3: I keep thinking there points Saturday. But when this line

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Speaker 3: first came out, like honestly, I was surprised that it

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Speaker 3: was three and a half and I was expecting it

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Speaker 3: to go up after that. She lacking that the Ravens

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Speaker 3: gave the Niners on Monday, but both teams are I

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Speaker 3: guess you could say in a letdown spot. After the

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Speaker 3: Dolphins had a big winning against the Cowboys, Ravens had

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Speaker 3: a big win against the Niners, which I would probably

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Speaker 3: say that the Ravens game would be. If anyone has

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Speaker 3: more of a letdown. It might be the Ravens because

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Speaker 3: beating the Niners like they did was honestly huge. And

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Speaker 3: the one aspect that I I've heard a couple of

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Speaker 3: times that you really can't quantify, that I might be

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Speaker 3: giving more credit for than others, is that the Ravens,

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Speaker 3: just the Ravens defense just forced four turnovers against that

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Speaker 3: Niners offense with brock perty and now we're getting McDaniels,

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Speaker 3: who's coming from the Niners, who runs a very similar offense,

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Speaker 3: getting all of that tape and all of what the

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Speaker 3: Ravens did defensively against the Niners and being able to

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Speaker 3: prepare for that, because it did seem like the Nyers.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if they just weren't prepared or caught

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Speaker 3: off guard or whatever it was. But the Miami getting

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Speaker 3: that type of tape and it didn't seem like they

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Speaker 3: were holding their cards for this game whatsoever, I do

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Speaker 3: think is worth something. And at three and a half

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Speaker 3: the injury report, we haven't really gotten it today. I

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Speaker 3: do know waddles out and the line really didn't move,

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Speaker 3: but there are a couple other injury worth monitoring. But

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Speaker 3: this Ravens defense, like if they go into San fran

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Speaker 3: shut them down and then shut this Miami offense down

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Speaker 3: like that is going to be scary. And it's honestly

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Speaker 3: a tough task back to back weeks on a short week,

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Speaker 3: which the four turnovers, like I want to say, like

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Speaker 3: one of them was legit, like there were a bunch

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Speaker 3: of tip passes, and then you got the quote unquote

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Speaker 3: lucky plays, which honestly like they were. But this defense

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Speaker 3: is legitimate. But this Ravens offense I just can't trust.

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Speaker 3: Like honestly, they were gifted four possessions and there were

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Speaker 3: at times like Niners defense is no slouch.

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Speaker 1: It was just difficult, like when.

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Speaker 3: They were in the on the goal line and it

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Speaker 3: took them and Gus Edwards finally pushed it, punched it

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Speaker 3: in on fourth down, like everything just there's just no

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Speaker 3: fluidity to this Ravens offense. And Lamar definitely should be

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Speaker 3: the MVP right now. But between these two offenses, I

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Speaker 3: just trust probably Miami's more and Miami's defense is legit,

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Speaker 3: Like I feel like they're not getting anywhere near the

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Speaker 3: credit that they should be right now, and they just

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Speaker 3: start backfilling with injuries like and it's and I just

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Speaker 3: think this Miami's defense is probably one of, if probably

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Speaker 3: the second best unit in this game, which out of

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Speaker 3: all four units, I trust the Ravens offense the least.

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Speaker 3: So we're just getting at three and a half. It's

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Speaker 3: a play. I think they're gonna win.

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Speaker 4: Rah Hee Moster didn't practice Thursday. Eight cham was out there,

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Speaker 4: Tyreek Hill was it practice Thursday? All of your analysis

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Speaker 4: there makes me think under maybe two forty six and

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Speaker 4: a half, just because you see those two teams and

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Speaker 4: those two logos, you think high scoring shootout but let

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Speaker 4: down spots and yeah, I mean you nailed it too.

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Speaker 4: I think Baltimore had a ton of favorable field position

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Speaker 4: opportunities to not have to move the ball that much

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Speaker 4: to set themselves up to score in that game. On

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Speaker 4: Monday Night, Jill Goalot welcome back. Jill doesn't just bet

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Speaker 4: touchdowns everybody. He likes the interception market too, and he's

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Speaker 4: actually targeting the game.

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Speaker 2: Luke just hit on, Yeah, I'm going to be actually

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Speaker 2: fading the MVP according to Luke of Lamar Jackson and

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Speaker 2: taking his interception prop for yes at plus one oh five,

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Speaker 2: echoing a lot of the same things that he had said,

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Speaker 2: but kind of going to expand a little bit more

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Speaker 2: on this Dolphins defense that I think is pretty underrated.

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Speaker 2: So they've got seven in Sorry, Lamar Jackson has thrown

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Speaker 2: for seven interceptions this year, But this Dolphins defense, they

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Speaker 2: ranked top five in total passes defended, that stat meaning

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Speaker 2: a defender was actually arranged to potentially intercept the ball,

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Speaker 2: and our top five also in interception rate per dropback.

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Speaker 2: So Miami, their defense they rank first and pressure rate,

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Speaker 2: but their bottom five and blitz rates. So that means

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Speaker 2: that a lot of the time their defensive line is

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Speaker 2: getting through and their secondary can just sit back and

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Speaker 2: coverage and wait for you to toss the ball. And

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Speaker 2: they forced an opposing quarterback to throw an interception in

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Speaker 2: eight of the last ten games, twelve of fifteen games overall,

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Speaker 2: it would have been nine in a row. Dak Prescott

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Speaker 2: did throw an interception, but it was called back from

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Speaker 2: a penalty, so we'll call it what it is, but

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Speaker 2: the Dak pic was called back. Now. Also, another thing

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Speaker 2: that I was looking at is for anybody who listens

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Speaker 2: to the pot, I'm sure you're aware when Brandon was

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Speaker 2: doing his power rankings of teams and how they would

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Speaker 2: subsequently fall from grace pretty much the next week. Well,

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Speaker 2: one of the things that I've been doing is specifically

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Speaker 2: when it comes to the MVP and it comes to

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Speaker 2: interception odds, and I've been playing with it for the

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Speaker 2: last few weeks, and this is finally the week where

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Speaker 2: I wanted to actually put an official bet on it.

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Speaker 2: So this is called the fade the MVP spot where

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Speaker 2: you're essentially taking the MVP to throw an interception the

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Speaker 2: week after he becomes the favorite to become MVP. So

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Speaker 2: if you go back and look throughout the season, when

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes finally separated himself and he became the favorite

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Speaker 2: for MVP versus the Eagles, he threw an interception. That

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Speaker 2: following week, Jalen Hurts becomes the MVP favorite because they

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Speaker 2: but he throws an interception.

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Speaker 1: Versus the Bills.

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Speaker 2: Right after that, Dak becomes the MVP favorite. Next week

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Speaker 2: he throws an interception against the Bills. Party this past

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Speaker 2: week is the MVP favorite throws four interceptions versus the Ravens.

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Speaker 2: So again, there's been a lot of time now where

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Speaker 2: these quarterbacks they're maybe not getting or maybe they're getting

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Speaker 2: a little too much respect in the interception market, especially

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Speaker 2: in this kind of matchup. So Lamar Jackson I think

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Speaker 2: is going to throw an interception this week, and at

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Speaker 2: plus one oh five against this Dolphins defense, I'm going

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Speaker 2: to take it every time.

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Speaker 3: Did you have you tracked to like what their interception

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Speaker 3: odds were prior to the week fifth it became the

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Speaker 3: MVP favorite, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Of course, But I mean a lot of those guys

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Speaker 2: like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, it depends on the matchup.

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Speaker 2: Like Josh Allen, as the year has gone on, his

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Speaker 2: odds have become minus odds to the point where they're

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Speaker 2: like minus one to eighty. But Mahomes, it depending on

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Speaker 2: the matchup. It will never really go past minus one

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Speaker 2: p fifteen for him to throw a pick, and then

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Speaker 2: some weeks you'll see it around plus one oh five.

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Speaker 2: But now Mahomes because of that, is actually the interception

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Speaker 2: profits leader for the season now at just over seven

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Speaker 2: and a half units. So and Dak he was around

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Speaker 2: minus one ten to throw an interception against Buffalo, so

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Speaker 2: not surprising being on the road in Buffalo. But Brock

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Speaker 2: Purdy he was around plus one oh five against the

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Speaker 2: Ravens this past week to throw an interception in four

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Speaker 2: were happening. So I wouldn't probably put too much stock

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Speaker 2: in the odds per se, but I would definitely say

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Speaker 2: a lot of the time when they're becoming MVP, they're

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Speaker 2: facing this matchup that probably where they should be a

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Speaker 2: little bit lower odds, and we're getting a little bit

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Speaker 2: more value as a result of their previous play.

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Speaker 4: It's funny to say that because looking in the market now,

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Speaker 4: Holmes to throw a pick against Cincinnati. Yes, at minus

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Speaker 4: one twenty is what we're seeing right now on Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 4: So the market has caught up and corrected itself. In

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Speaker 4: the second last week of the season, Brandon from the

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Speaker 4: Bunker is fading the NFC South yet again. I'd actually

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Speaker 4: like to know, I mean, you branded, I doubt it.

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Speaker 4: You might know, because you just are that kind of guy.

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Speaker 4: You might know what your record is in the Bunker

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Speaker 4: and how profitable you are when you make picks from

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Speaker 4: that location. But I don't mind this strategy of just

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Speaker 4: fading the NFC South once again with your second one.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't have the record from the Bunker, but

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Speaker 5: I do know that fading the NFC South has gone

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Speaker 5: well for us on this podcast, so we'll stick with that,

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Speaker 5: I'm going to go to Saints Bucks. We got ourselves

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Speaker 5: an NFC divisional game, divisions on the line, Give me

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Speaker 5: the under forty three. I'm gonna stay in the division

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Speaker 5: and keep failing these terrible teams, right, that's just the

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Speaker 5: way to go here. We've talked about the trend in

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Speaker 5: the division. We'll get to that total has actually gone

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Speaker 5: up this week. It was around forty one forty one

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Speaker 5: and a half on Sundays, so it's ticking up forty

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Speaker 5: three at one. Book grab that obviously if you can.

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Speaker 5: That movement matters. Forty and forty one is kind of

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Speaker 5: a key number range for totals. Forty three also can

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Speaker 5: be a key number, so even having the possibility of push,

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Speaker 5: definitely want to grab that if you can. Really just

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Speaker 5: betting against bad blaw offenses, Like I don't think I

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Speaker 5: need to make the case too much of what we're

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Speaker 5: looking at here. Both defenses are just a little better

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Speaker 5: than what they're going to face. Bocks defense has been

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Speaker 5: above average on the season. Saints are really bad, especially

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Speaker 5: on third down. Bucks defense has been number one on

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Speaker 5: third down for the season. The Saints defense has been

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Speaker 5: slipping a little bit. I've been on here, fading them

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Speaker 5: at times, But the main area they've slipped is the

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Speaker 5: run defense. Fox can't run to save their life, so

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Speaker 5: that's not really going to be a big factor. I

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Speaker 5: think in this game anyway. Saints pass defense has still

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Speaker 5: been a pretty good top ten for the season, so

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Speaker 5: I just think the defense has have the advantage here. Again,

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Speaker 5: I like where this game is at in Tampa Bay

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Speaker 5: Box games at home this season have been better for

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Speaker 5: Tampa defensively and worse offensively. They're twenty fourth on offense

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Speaker 5: at home versus tenth on the road. They're seventh on

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Speaker 5: defense at home versus sixteenth on the road by DBA,

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Speaker 5: And if you look at how do the games play out,

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Speaker 5: plays out that way in Tampa Bay Bucks games are

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Speaker 5: under thirty five points a game. That's both teams combined

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Speaker 5: away from home forty eight and a half points a game,

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Speaker 5: So it's a huge difference. Tampa is under this number

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Speaker 5: six of the seven home games in Tampa. And then

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Speaker 5: we've done this trend before in the NFC South when

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Speaker 5: teams in the division have played each other this season,

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Speaker 5: we've had nine of these crap games. Now we have

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Speaker 5: to keep watching because no one will win the stupid division,

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Speaker 5: and all but one of the nine games has topped

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Speaker 5: out at thirty nine or below, so I don't know

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Speaker 5: what this total is doing going up. They played to

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Speaker 5: thirty five points the last time those games are averaging

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Speaker 5: for this season an entire division thirty five point two

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Speaker 5: points a game. Get this stupid division out of here.

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Speaker 5: The Saints are ten and five to the under. The

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Speaker 5: Bucks are nine and six to the under. Todd Bowle's

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Speaker 5: actually been really good against Pete Carmichael's offense lately. Saints

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Speaker 5: have only averaged under seventeen a game the last six

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Speaker 5: games against the Bucks, so I think that that matches

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Speaker 5: up well here as well. Baker Mayfield, with totals under

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Speaker 5: forty four, is the second most profitable quarterback in our

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Speaker 5: system to the under sixty six percent. Here's some late

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Speaker 5: season division trends. To the under. You've heard enough, Take

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Speaker 5: the under, take the under forty three. I kind of

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Speaker 5: like the Bucks here. I hope that they just win

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Speaker 5: the division and we don't have to do this again

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Speaker 5: in week eighteen. But our luck rankings have the Saints

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Speaker 5: second to last in luck, Bucks number two in luck.

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Speaker 5: And this is the Tampa is actually one of the

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Speaker 5: must win teams here by the trend that I gave earlier,

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Speaker 5: So I'm gonna be careful. I probably won't just do

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Speaker 5: the box. I was thinking about that here. Maybe just

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Speaker 5: a first half play because they've been much better there.

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Speaker 5: But why bet against the Saints when I bet against

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Speaker 5: the Bucks too? Just give me the under under forty

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Speaker 5: three under the NFC South Bury them, get them out

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Speaker 5: of here.

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay averaging close to thirty points a game the

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Speaker 4: last three weeks, but Brandon suspects that might come back

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Speaker 4: down to earth in an in division matchup. It is

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Speaker 4: going to be a nice day in Tampa Sunday, sunny

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Speaker 4: high of sixty six because like, just to play Devil's advocate,

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Speaker 4: some of these games in Tampa that they've had rained,

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Speaker 4: they've had wind, they've been sloppy, They've they've made the

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Speaker 4: slop even more sloppy.

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Speaker 5: It was it was gonna be a nice game, and

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Speaker 5: then they're going to put an NFC South Football game

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Speaker 5: on the television. It won't be a nice game, nice

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Speaker 5: day anymore, fair enough.

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Speaker 4: The Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM. Use

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Speaker 4: bonus code Action when signing up to get up to

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Speaker 4: fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if your

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00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:52,760
Speaker 4: first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

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00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:57,159
Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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Speaker 4: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

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Speaker 4: Gambling problem called one eight one hundred gambler? All right, Luke,

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Speaker 4: what do you got for your second one?

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Speaker 3: So I'm gonna go with the Panthers right now at

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Speaker 3: plus six and a half, which, man, like, this Jack

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Speaker 3: team is just in like total disarray right now, And

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Speaker 3: normally it would be like something that you want to

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Speaker 3: like buy low on the Jags, like expect who.

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Speaker 4: Do they just sign off the practice squad? Matt Barkley?

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Speaker 4: Is that right? Matt Barkley is on their active roster

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Speaker 4: now or could be if Lawrence is in danger of

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Speaker 4: playing in this game.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if it's Matt Barkley, but it's just

395
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Speaker 3: like in I don't think any team I've lost more

396
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Speaker 3: than the Jacks this year, and like the Bilows like

397
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,320
Speaker 3: those are out the door. I tried last week they

398
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Speaker 3: got destroyed by the Box.

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Speaker 1: It's just like total disarray.

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Speaker 3: And right now it's at six and a half because

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Speaker 3: I guess it's like somewhat of a middle a number

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Speaker 3: based off of Trevor Lawrence on whether he plays, which

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Speaker 3: I know he's in practicing a limited fashion, and this

404
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Speaker 3: is like the third time or fourth this year where

405
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Speaker 3: he's practicing limited fashion and at one point like questionable

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Speaker 3: tag to the extent that like probably anyone else would

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Speaker 3: sit out, But he's played every single week, So I'm

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Speaker 3: operating under the assumption that Trevor Lawrence is playing, which

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Speaker 3: one that does become official will probably go to seven.

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Speaker 1: I doubt it will go.

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Speaker 3: Any higher because he's not going to be one hundred percent.

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Speaker 3: But like this Jack team is just a total fade

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Speaker 3: at this point. I mean, like the last three weeks,

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Speaker 3: the twenty fifth in offense, twenty eighth in defense in

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Speaker 3: terms of net yards per play going against this Panthers team,

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Speaker 3: who I still think the public perception is like they're

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Speaker 3: the worst team in the league, and the last couple

418
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Speaker 3: of weeks their offense has been coming to life. Brice

419
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Speaker 3: definitely had the best game of his career or season

420
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Speaker 3: last week and if a like the Panthers defense isn't bad,

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Speaker 3: like they have been bad and they have been like

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Speaker 3: very unhealthy. In the last two weeks, they've started to

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Speaker 3: get healthy and their top ten top excuse me, top

424
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Speaker 3: fifteen unit in the last three weeks. I want to say, so,

425
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Speaker 3: like this Panthers defense is something that you could probably

426
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Speaker 3: hold your hat on. If this Panthers offense is totally

427
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Speaker 3: back to early this season, I guess Panthers defense is

428
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:09,879
Speaker 3: something I actually trust. Where this Jags offense, like if

429
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Speaker 3: they're like just operating like they have the last couple

430
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Speaker 3: of weeks, it really is Christian Kirk. I think like

431
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Speaker 3: ever since Christian Kirk hurt, like it's just been awful,

432
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Speaker 3: But like this Panthers defense is good enough. Panthers offense

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Speaker 3: has looked a lot better. It seems like it's been

434
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 3: making strides ever since Frank Reich got fired. It seems

435
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 3: like they are going balls out, which they literally have

436
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:32,680
Speaker 3: nothing to tank for because they don't have a number

437
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 3: one pick. So I'm just gonna take the Panthers that

438
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 3: plus six and a half, Like if you want to, like,

439
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 3: I wouldn't blame you for taking the six and a

440
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 3: half right now, I do think Trevor Wentz is gonna play,

441
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 3: so I would also wouldn't blame you for waiting and

442
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 3: probably getting a seven, maybe a seven and a half

443
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,439
Speaker 3: once he does become official. Like usually it's something I

444
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,880
Speaker 3: go like half six and a half, wait for the news,

445
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 3: news comes out, go the other half. But Panthers plus

446
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 3: six and a half plus seven, like, that's definitely a

447
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 3: bet against this jack team that like the only angle

448
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 3: you would ever bet the Jackson is if like you

449
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 3: were just totally buying well and outside of that, there's

450
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:08,199
Speaker 3: just nothing positive to say about them. And they were

451
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 3: the number one seed like four weeks ago in the AFC,

452
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 3: and I still think they're getting credit for their record,

453
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:17,240
Speaker 3: which they were eight and three. Now they're eight and six,

454
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 3: eight and seven, and like they are like they could

455
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 3: miss the playoffs, Like there's a scenario that they miss

456
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 3: the playoffs where they were number one seed four weeks ago.

457
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 1: It's crazy. This speaks, This speaks.

458
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 4: To Brandon's point though about the book. Maybe not, it's

459
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 4: it's trying to tempt you to take a team that's

460
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 4: in contention needs the game at eight and seven and

461
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 4: a three way tie in the AFC South. Oh, look,

462
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,120
Speaker 4: you're getting the Jaguars inside a touchdown. And I will

463
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 4: add we record this podcast on a Thursday afternoon. Trevor

464
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 4: Lawrence not present at practice today in the media viewing

465
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 4: portion of practice. Must add that CJ. Bethard, Matt Barkley, E. J.

466
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:57,680
Speaker 4: Perry the only quarterbacks present for that portion of practice.

467
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 5: Presuming the line moves a pointer to in either direct

468
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 5: once we get some news on Lawrence at six and

469
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 5: a half. If Lawrence does miss and it drops a

470
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 5: couple of points, that's kind of the no man's land anyways. Like,

471
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 5: I'm not really sure you're gaining a lot here. So

472
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 5: it seems to me if you like this, obviously for

473
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 5: the pod, we're giving out the line as it is

474
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 5: right now. But I like this as well. But it

475
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 5: seems like if I like it, I probably want to wait.

476
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 5: I think I have more to gain by getting the

477
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 5: extra points with Lawrence than I would lose if he's out.

478
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 5: Do you agree with that?

479
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:27,359
Speaker 2: Yeah?

480
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 3: Like, I think if like Lawrence is out, would go

481
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:32,879
Speaker 3: to like five and a half, which I mean, yeah, clearly,

482
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 3: and I would say there's a lot more value in

483
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 3: getting seven compared to six and a half than there

484
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 3: is getting six and a half to five and a half.

485
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 1: So yeah, I would agree, Okay, very good.

486
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 3: Like every every time Trevor Lawrence has been like expected

487
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 3: to be out like he's played, so U does not

488
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 3: mess like the guy like four times this year.

489
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 4: Now his whole offensive line has golf cart so they

490
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 4: can bring him around. So he's covering all right, Jill,

491
00:23:58,600 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 4: what do you got for second one? You are going

492
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 4: to go touchdown bet for this one?

493
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 2: Yes, And I'm going to go to the Saturday game.

494
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 2: I'm going to go to Cowboys Lions, and I'm gonna

495
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 2: take them on Ross Saint Brown for in any time touchdown,

496
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 2: he's around plus one sixty. He's got eight touchdowns this year,

497
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 2: five touchdowns over the last seven games, averaging around ten

498
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 2: targets per indoor game. And I think indoors is the

499
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 2: key word we need to talk about when we talk

500
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 2: about the Detroit Lions, because they are night and day

501
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 2: when compared to playing indoors as opposed to outdoors. Jared

502
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 2: Goff has a touchdown interception ratio over three three to

503
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 2: one indoors, where it's about one and a half to

504
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 2: one when playing outdoors, and again I'm maybe a little

505
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,200
Speaker 2: too close to the source material. I'm not as high

506
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,719
Speaker 2: on the Dallas Cowboys defense maybe as some others are,

507
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 2: maybe even something as simple as DV Away. But the

508
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 2: Lions I still think should be able to move the

509
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 2: ball on Dallas and the Cowboys. They play man coverage

510
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 2: at a top five rate in the NFL, and their

511
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 2: pass rush, that's what they really are designed to do

512
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 2: is to get a lead and then basically completely engulf

513
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 2: you in this pass rush. So that means Jared Goff

514
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 2: is probably gonna have to get rid of it quick.

515
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 2: And that fits guys with the lower A dot, like

516
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 2: an Amn Ross Saint Brown or a Sam Laporta or

517
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 2: a Jamiir Gibbs, all having like kind of that lower

518
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 2: A dot. But I will say I wouldn't mind if

519
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 2: you sprinkled on somebody like Josh Reynolds at plus four ninety.

520
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 2: But Aman Ross Saint Brown I think is the guy

521
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 2: that we won, especially because with the way that these

522
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 2: teams match up and the way that they can move

523
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 2: the ball, this game is probably gonna have a similar

524
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 2: pace to what we saw between Seahawks Cowboys for Thursday,

525
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 2: Night Football a couple of weeks ago, where they're both

526
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 2: really able to get up and down the field, and

527
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 2: the totals reflecting that, I mean the totals at fifty

528
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 2: three that game that we're I just talked about had

529
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 2: close to over seventy points. So I'm going to take

530
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 2: the second best wide receiver in this game to score

531
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:49,160
Speaker 2: a touchdown.

532
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 4: All right, I'll put you on the spot any chance, amen.

533
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 4: Ross Saint Brown has an incentive in his contract too,

534
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 4: because like I look at the line and I think

535
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 4: to myself, all right, well, the Lions are maybe in

536
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 4: a letdown spot. They just clinched a playoff spot. Coleboys

537
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 4: have dropped two straight. So I know, I realize you're

538
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 4: staying away from a side or a total, But if

539
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,919
Speaker 4: Almin Rod gets to a certain threshold of touchdowns, I

540
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 4: wonder if that's in play too, even if it's not

541
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 4: going well for the Lions.

542
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: Right.

543
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 2: Well, you bring up a good point because Brandon and

544
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: I we talk a lot about futures markets off air,

545
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 2: and we had talked about the receptions market, total receptions market,

546
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 2: and at this point, this was about two weeks ago

547
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:32,120
Speaker 2: when Tyreek was going through his issues that aman Ross

548
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 2: Saint Brown was around thirty to one to lead the

549
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 2: NFL in receptions. Right now, he's about four receptions off

550
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 2: the lead, so he's about plus three hundred to plus

551
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 2: four hundred right now to be that receptions lead. Ceedee

552
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,120
Speaker 2: Lamb probably and Tyreek Hill are still up.

553
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 1: There at the top.

554
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 2: But the point is is that he is very close

555
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 2: to being in a position to lead the NFL in

556
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,959
Speaker 2: receptions by the end of the season. I can't imagine

557
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 2: that he has a contract that doesn't have some sort

558
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 2: of incentive tied into that, So I can't see why

559
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,439
Speaker 2: they would stop throwing it to him, especially when you

560
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 2: look at the indoor splits and you see that he's

561
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 2: averaging like ten targets the game. He had twelve catches

562
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 2: last week. So again, just very much a good matchup,

563
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 2: I think for him, especially given this pass rush, the

564
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 2: way that how quickly they're probably going to get the

565
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 2: golf that he's going to have to get it out.

566
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,919
Speaker 2: They need a receiver that's able to move around the

567
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 2: field like a monro and not just say stationary the

568
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 2: way that they have James and Williams for Josh Reynolds

569
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 2: in those cases. So again yeah, I think a monro.

570
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 2: I think the incentive is get as many receptions as

571
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:28,960
Speaker 2: possible and get that new contract.

572
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 4: That's the yeah, better way of putting. The two receptions

573
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,120
Speaker 4: yards and the touchdowns of course are the cherry on top.

574
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 4: Be on the lookout for that from Evan Abrams. That's

575
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 4: coming next week for sure. The incentives that can be

576
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 4: hit in Week eighteen, final round of picks, Brandon, what

577
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 4: do you got for your last one?

578
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 1: Yeah?

579
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 5: This is an ultimate Bilo spot for the Chiefs offense

580
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 5: right now. We watch them do nothing against the Raiders,

581
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 5: do nothing against the Patriots, and if you are struggling

582
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 5: to move the chains, why not turn your beast wap in.

583
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 1: You got, shake it off, Shake it off.

584
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 5: Give me Travis Kelcey over fifteen nine and a half

585
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 5: receiving yards against the Bengals. I thinks are really good,

586
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 5: get right, at least for the offense for the Chiefs.

587
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 5: Bengals defense have been terrible all season long, and I

588
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 5: think the Chiefs can at least offensively get things moving

589
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 5: a little bit, especially if you've been following my every game,

590
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:24,880
Speaker 5: every team article, week after week after week. I am

591
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:28,479
Speaker 5: betting tight ends against the Bengals that has been a

592
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 5: money maker for us second half of the season. Bengals

593
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 5: are thirty first in DVA against tight ends. They're allowing

594
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 5: the second most fantasy points to tight ends. They're allowed

595
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 5: one thy twenty yards so far, which is leading the

596
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 5: league for tight ends, ninety eight receptions, which is two

597
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 5: off the lead for tight ends. It's an average of

598
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 5: six and a half catches sixty eight yards a game.

599
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,719
Speaker 5: And obviously Traus Kelsey isn't what he wants was, but

600
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 5: he's still Travis kelce Like. There are a lot of

601
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 5: teams with a lot worse tight ends. Here, let me

602
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 5: just read you really quickly. Here's some line by tight

603
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 5: ends that have played the Bengals. George Kittle nine for

604
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 5: one hundred and forty nine, dalonkin Kaid ten for eighty one,

605
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 5: Dalon Shultz seventy one yards, Pat farm With nine for

606
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 5: one hundred and twenty, Evan Ingram nine for eighty two, TJ.

607
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 5: Howkinson six for sixty three and that was all since

608
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 5: Week eight. Every one of those lines has happened since

609
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 5: the second half of the season. Travis Kelcey, I think

610
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 5: is going to chew up this defense. Last two games

611
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 5: in the playoffs when he played the Bengals ten for

612
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 5: ninety five, seven for seventy eight touchdown in both games.

613
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 5: It's averaging about seventy yards a game in five games

614
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 5: against the Bengals with Mahomes. So I just think it's

615
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 5: a good spot for Kelsey here. Sixty yards is all

616
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 5: we need. I think we're buying the depth right, Like,

617
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 5: how often are you going to ever get a receiving

618
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 5: yards a ligne for Travis kelce with a five in

619
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 5: front of it. Let me do the math for you.

620
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 5: Sixty yards a game for an entire season barely cracks

621
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 5: one thousand yards. We know Travis Kelcey is not a

622
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 5: thousand yard receiver, Like, this is a guy who's still

623
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 5: well above the He's had fifty eight yards or more

624
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 5: nine or fourteen games, even as he struggled through injuries

625
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 5: and everything else this year, So sixty four percent of

626
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 5: the time there. I kind of like the Bengals here overall.

627
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 5: I think they can hang in early downs. And I

628
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 5: mentioned that because I think that this suits up as

629
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 5: sort of a playoff game, Like I think that the

630
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 5: Chiefs are gonna have to go to their money maker here,

631
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 5: and so you got some possible bad weather, possibly no

632
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 5: Pacheck Overdonovan Smith. That means checkdown city to me, I

633
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 5: think there's a lot of reason to expect we're going

634
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 5: to see the Chiefs have to push all the way here,

635
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 5: and you know, seasons on the line, they haven't even

636
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 5: clinched a playoff spot right now. They got to still

637
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 5: win the division. They got to get over the line here.

638
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 5: Pat's gonna turn to Travis right like you're running out

639
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 5: of options, You're gonna go to your guy. So give

640
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 5: me Travis Kelcey over fifty nine and a half receiving yards.

641
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 3: I mean, it's easily the lowest I've ever this is.

642
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 3: I can't remember. I don't know what it was last week,

643
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 3: but a Kelsey line not in the eighties is like, Wow,

644
00:30:58,200 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 3: tonight's crazy.

645
00:30:59,120 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 1: Brandon.

646
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 4: I know you are you playing escalators too?

647
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 5: You know, I haven't seen lines yet on escalators. Just

648
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 5: because there's a lot of the injuries in this game,

649
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 5: so probably I will look more for a receptions escalator,

650
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 5: just because my guy can't quite downfield like he used

651
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:18,959
Speaker 5: to anymore. So I might look for maybe like up

652
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 5: to a ten receptions, maybe a combo play like six

653
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 5: receptions eighty yards and a touchdown sort of thing. So yeah,

654
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 5: the escalators will be there, not as aggressively. I am

655
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 5: more here playing the media. The median is just too low.

656
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 5: Like Luke said, fifty nine, come on, like, we're never

657
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 5: gonna see this line until he's at his deathbed. So

658
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 5: you know, it's a game in Kansas City, Taylor's probably

659
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 5: gonna be there. Let's just get the sixty yards and

660
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 5: get out of here.

661
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 2: I was even gonna say to Brandon right now, Travis Kelcey,

662
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:52,959
Speaker 2: this is the third game this season that he has

663
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 2: had plus odds for at anytime touchdown. But the fact

664
00:31:56,440 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 2: that you're seeing those yardage lines around fifty five odds

665
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 2: right now, I probably would still say to play the

666
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 2: yardage prop at the minus one ten odds then playing

667
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 2: the touchdown odds at even. But I will say it

668
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 2: shows you that what sportsbooks and what they think of

669
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 2: the tight end position against the Bengals, because last week

670
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 2: Pat Fryarmouth broke mine and Nick Giffon's hearts with a

671
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 2: plus four seventy touchdown bet on this Bengals defense, and

672
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 2: he saw I think maybe one target. Travis Kelsey is

673
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 2: obviously much better than Pat Frarmouth, and the fact that

674
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 2: you're going from one starting tight end at plus four

675
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 2: seventy down to even odds shows that he's probably going

676
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 2: to be pretty involved.

677
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,959
Speaker 4: This week was one of those plus odd games last week, Kelsey,

678
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 4: because I know he was like plus one twenty five

679
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 4: or something open.

680
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 2: This is correct. Our colleague Charlie Desterco was on him,

681
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 2: and yeah, I didn't want to bring it up because

682
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 2: I don't like porn salt in the wound on people here,

683
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 2: but yeah, it did not work it.

684
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 4: We're just educating, that's all.

685
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 1: Uh, that's all it is.

686
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 4: It's not well. I'd like to tump on Charlie from

687
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 4: time to time. That is kind of fun to do. Admittedly. Uh, okay, Luke,

688
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 4: you got one more for us too, What do you got?

689
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Broncos Land three and a

690
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 3: half hosting the Chargers, which on Monday Tuesday, before Russell

691
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 3: Wilson was like benched for like being cut. It was

692
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 3: five and a half and it came down to three,

693
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 3: which was definitely a bet at three, and I would

694
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 3: still play this up to four, but you're getting a

695
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 3: discount on this Broncos team. Which with Russell Wilson at QB,

696
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 3: like you do not weigh numbers with them where they

697
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 3: have to win by a margin because it just was

698
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 3: never happening. And Russell Wilson being benched. And I'm not

699
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 3: saying Stidham is like this all world QB, but you

700
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,959
Speaker 3: really do get it's kind of like the feeling of

701
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 3: like a game off of a coach getting fired. You

702
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 3: get that same vibe of like Russell Wilson getting benched,

703
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 3: re energizing this Broncos team hosting a Chargers team who

704
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 3: literally just went off of that where they almost beat

705
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 3: the Bills last Saturday, as I want to say, twelve

706
00:33:55,920 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 3: point underdogs, which was the game off of Daly being fired.

707
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 3: So like games off of like huge things like this,

708
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 3: there's always like the energy, Like you really it's like

709
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 3: kind of like an auto bet where I'm really getting

710
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 3: the same vibes on this Broncos team. It seems like

711
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 3: Sean Payton wanted to bench Russell Wilson all season. Not

712
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 3: that Sidham is guy, but like he just like this

713
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 3: isn't the same Broncos offense that could never win by

714
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:25,399
Speaker 3: margin anymore. Stidham had the same situation last year, came

715
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 3: in and he had the game of like his life

716
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:30,759
Speaker 3: through for like five touchdowns and then he nine Ers

717
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 3: cell back down there steeply two earth in this spot,

718
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 3: Chargers team still has Eastern stick. Eastern stick two weeks ago.

719
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 3: I think we all watched and it was painful. Now

720
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 3: he's going on the road in Denver. I think it's

721
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,680
Speaker 3: a primetime game only getting three and a half, Like,

722
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 3: I would never bet the Charger at these odds, and

723
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 3: at three and a half like this is. It's the

724
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 3: backup angle. It's just there's so many angles to this

725
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,479
Speaker 3: Broncos side that you just have to bet. Three would

726
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 3: have been great. Three and a half totally fine. I

727
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 3: was still play it up to four. So I'll take

728
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 3: the Broncos lang three and a half hosting the Charters.

729
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 4: Okay, that's a four to thirty game on Sunday right

730
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 4: up against Kansas City and Cincinnati.

731
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 3: And the one thing about this, I would definitely bet

732
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 3: this sooner rather than later. I don't see this line

733
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 3: going anywhere but up, especially if Keenan out, which I

734
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,759
Speaker 3: don't expect Keenan Allen to play. I think he's just

735
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,800
Speaker 3: shut down for the year, which I feel like he

736
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 3: is already baked into this line, but you're probably gonna

737
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 3: get some. It will definitely move when he's ruled out.

738
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 3: If he has ruled out, there's really no reason for

739
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 3: a I think he's thirty two. You're old wide receiver

740
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 3: to play at this point, So I would definitely jump

741
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:36,479
Speaker 3: on this now.

742
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 4: All right, excellent, Jill, take us home. One more touchdown

743
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 4: bet for us?

744
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: Cool?

745
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's the Dham game that you're talking about, Luke. Only.

746
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 2: The only reason why I even know most about it

747
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:47,840
Speaker 2: is because I had a ton of Raiders bets in

748
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 2: that game, and it was against the Niners. And like

749
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 2: Darren Waller scores a touchdown, he's like plus four fifty. Now,

750
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 2: I mean, it felt like a lifetime ago now at

751
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 2: this point was where Darren Waller is. But all right,

752
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:01,879
Speaker 2: let's talk about pass vikings. And I'm going to take

753
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:05,800
Speaker 2: pretty vanilla pick here, but Justin Jefferson should not be

754
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,280
Speaker 2: plus one twenty five to score a touchdown on this defense.

755
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 2: You should probably be around minus one ten even Odd's

756
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 2: at best. And Justin Jefferson he scored last week, he

757
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 2: had twenties. I got twenty targets in the last two games,

758
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 2: and that's probably only going to continue and maybe even

759
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 2: increase even more because now there's no TJ. Howkinson. Jordan

760
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 2: Addison is not practicing. We'll see how it goes throughout

761
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 2: the week if he even plays. But again, it looks

762
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 2: like it could be a lot of just Powell and

763
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:36,320
Speaker 2: Osborne out there with Jefferson. But honestly, I mean Jaren

764
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 2: Hall is going to be the starter this week. I

765
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 2: know that people will tell me, Look, Nick Mallins is

766
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 2: a slinger. It can't possibly be any worse than what

767
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 2: we saw with Nick Mallins or Josh Dobbs. I think

768
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 2: it's also a product of this offense because all three

769
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 2: of those Nick Mallins, Josh Dobbs, and Kirk Cousins all

770
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 2: have games with three or more interceptions in a game.

771
00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:59,360
Speaker 2: So I just think a lot of this offense is

772
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 2: predicated on passing. That's why I'm a little higher on

773
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 2: Jaron Hall coming in here, especially because they're facing a

774
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 2: Packers defense that is thirtieth in DVOA versus the pass

775
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 2: twenty eighth and DVOWA to wide receiver one seven passing

776
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 2: touchdowns allowed in just the last three games, and Jy

777
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 2: you'r Alexander after coin Flipgate or whatever we want to

778
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:19,799
Speaker 2: call it. I guess he's not going to be out

779
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 2: there shadowy Justin Jefferson. So I just think with the

780
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 2: volume alone, you were going to probably see Justin Jefferson

781
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:30,879
Speaker 2: have twelve or more targets in this game. And if

782
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:32,879
Speaker 2: that's the case and you're giving me plus one twenty

783
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 2: five odds for probably a top three playmaker in the NFL,

784
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take that. So Justin Jefferson at plus one

785
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,399
Speaker 2: twenty five he will score a touchdown against the Green

786
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 2: Bay Packers.

787
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 3: They literally have no one else. So I don't know

788
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 3: if that's like, I mean, Addison probably isn't gonna play,

789
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 3: Hawkinson is out, like I don't know if that's like

790
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 3: a good thing or bad thing where they're just gonna

791
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 3: like quadruple caver Jefferson because there's no one else, or

792
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:56,879
Speaker 3: is a good point loop that is a good one

793
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,399
Speaker 3: stuff but there's no one else, throw it out.

794
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 2: I would beg to differ. I think kJ Osborne at

795
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 2: plus five very good odds. Yeah, I know, but that's okay. Again,

796
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 2: you should forget about him when you have an offense

797
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 2: with Justin Jefferson, t J Hawkinson, and Jordan Madison. But

798
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 2: at the same time, when those guys are gone, we've

799
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 2: still got some scruff left. Why don't we throw kJ

800
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 2: Osborne out there, who's gonna play probably eighty five to

801
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 2: ninety percent of the snaps And you're getting five to

802
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 2: one odds on Yeah, and.

803
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 5: I think you mentioned Gyr Alexander. He's a big miss here,

804
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 5: Like when you watch these teams play that specific matchup

805
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 5: Alexander on Jefferson, like that dude Gyros trash talk for

806
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 5: like months in advance waiting to face off against Justin Jefferson,

807
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 5: and so like now Jefferson just gets to go off

808
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,280
Speaker 5: with no Gyre, no shutdown corner across around. No Jared's

809
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 5: now what he was, but to like to be able

810
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:47,840
Speaker 5: to have another big catch, to be able to score

811
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 5: that touchdown and point over at the sideline of the

812
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 5: guy in sweatpants being like, can't cover me on the

813
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 5: sidelines you coin flip dingas like it's coming. This is

814
00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 5: a Sunday night game and it's effectively an eliminate game,

815
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 5: Like you gotta win this game. Both of these teams

816
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 5: here they're gonna feed Jefferson. It's definitely from my article

817
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 5: I'm on Jefferson escalators and overs in this one, so

818
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:12,400
Speaker 5: it definitely looks like a touchdown spot for him in

819
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 5: the matchup with no Alexander.

820
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 4: There, it is the bunker will escalate at some point

821
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:20,200
Speaker 4: this weekend. Very good, Brandon, just to confirm no look

822
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:22,319
Speaker 4: ahead this week. There's that much available out there right

823
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 4: now because the books have been more wise to not

824
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 4: put those lines out.

825
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a bummer. Week eighteen has always been one

826
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 5: of the favorites because you sometimes get like ten points

827
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 5: of CLV or something crazy when the lines go crazy. Obviously,

828
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 5: like it's all the playoffs scenarios, right, So take a

829
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 5: look at the lines, like there's some of these lines

830
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:41,760
Speaker 5: you're gonna be able to grab early in the week

831
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 5: and then come Tuesday Wednesday, coaches being like, oh, you know,

832
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 5: we might be resting our guys because the way that

833
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 5: the playoffs set up comes, or we're gonna turn our

834
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 5: attention to the young quarterback or give somebody a new

835
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 5: start like that. That's you know, weird stuff happens in

836
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 5: Week eighteen. Unfortunately, the books have given us no chance

837
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 5: to bet on that going into the week, but we'll

838
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 5: get them, just not right now, and a look ahead.

839
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:07,320
Speaker 4: All right, everybody, Best of luck, Let's keep it rolling

840
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 4: here on the Best Bets episode the Best Bets podcast

841
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:13,320
Speaker 4: here on the Action Network podcast That is Going to

842
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,439
Speaker 4: do It for our Week seventeen episode, the Sunday six

843
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 4: Pack with Stuckey and Raybahn is also available to you

844
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 4: wherever you get your podcasts. And once again, don't forget

845
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 4: to download the free award winning Action Network app to

846
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 4: see all of these guys picks. They've got more than

847
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 4: just what they gave out here. They'll have more coming

848
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 4: this weekend. Once more. Clarity is available to us in

849
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 4: the market for Luke Swain, Jill Gallant, Brandon Anderson, Brendan Glasheen.

850
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 4: Thanks to our audio producer as well, David Payne is

851
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,280
Speaker 4: working hard during the holidays getting us up and running

852
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 4: here on the podcast side of things, That is going

853
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:48,399
Speaker 4: to do It for NFL Week seventeen Best Bets Here

854
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 4: on the Action Network podcast were.

855
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 1: Presented by bet MGM.

856
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 4: Best of luck. We'll talk to you next week.

857
00:40:54,160 --> 00:41:13,879
Speaker 1: In Week eighteen. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly

858
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 1: if you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

859
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 3: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

860
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:20,880
Speaker 3: hundred Gambler