1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: Joining us right now. 7 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 3: Terry Wise, from Director Global Currencies Interest Rate Strategy at 8 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 3: mcquarie Terio. 9 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 2: I feel like we're at bear Stearns years ago. 10 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 3: I get right to the dollar and once again consensus 11 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:38,520 Speaker 3: is hammered. 12 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 2: What happens in. 13 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 3: The foreign exchange market when everybody gets it wrong, Well, 14 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 3: it depends how they're positioned. 15 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 4: I suppose if a lot. 16 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 2: Of people were betting week. 17 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 4: Dollar, absolutely, as have we been betting in the medium. 18 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 2: In long term. Absolutely, you're going to stop the show. 19 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 3: We have the Harvard football coach on Yesterday to night 20 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:02,279 Speaker 3: Friday Night Football, Harvard Cornell Big Read, Bloomberg ninety two 21 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:05,039 Speaker 3: nine FM, Boston Weisman years This anta where the yell 22 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 3: at just straight. I guess an offsprings at yell or 23 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 3: something good morning offspring of Terry Weisman killing it at yell, 24 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,960 Speaker 3: and biology continue on the bet. 25 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:16,680 Speaker 2: That was made in weekness. The bet that was made 26 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 2: in the well. 27 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 4: The bet that was made in the strong dollar throughout 28 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 4: most of this year was a bet made on the 29 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 4: premise that policy uncertainty would continue in the US, that 30 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 4: you would see reserve managers rotate out of the dollar, 31 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 4: that this would be followed by private asset allo cators, 32 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 4: including fixed income allocators with out of a dollar. It 33 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 4: was also predicated on the richness of the dollar. We've 34 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:37,759 Speaker 4: seen a real appreciation of the dollar for the past 35 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 4: thirteen years, and that was a great story, and I 36 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 4: think people made a lot of money betting on that 37 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 4: weakness and the dollar until until the last few weeks. 38 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:46,680 Speaker 4: What's happened in the last few weeks I think is 39 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 4: not unusual. I think what has happened is that people 40 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 4: have realized, traders have realized, Hey, there's just as much 41 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 4: political uncertainty and policy uncertainty in the rest of the 42 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 4: world in some of these key markets as there is 43 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 4: in the US. And the case in point of. 44 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 2: Course has been Europe. 45 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 4: With these with this, with this, the prospect that we 46 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 4: may see a socialist become the Prime Minister of France, 47 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 4: that we may see delay to pension reform, that we 48 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 4: will see France not solve its its deficit and debt issue, 49 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 4: and of course now Japan as well, with concerns over 50 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 4: whether or not this ruling coalition will will will maintain 51 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:24,640 Speaker 4: power and whether we go to early elections there potentially 52 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 4: all the mental elections. So look, as long as the 53 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 4: US look to be the only source of uncertainty, it 54 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 4: was a week dollar story. Now that the US is 55 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 4: not the only source of uncertainty, it becomes a strong 56 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 4: dollar story. 57 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,359 Speaker 5: Because a US dollar retrace that eight nine percent declients. 58 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 2: I don't think so. 59 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 4: Although it's hard to predict the headlines coming out out 60 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 4: of the rest of the world, in part because the 61 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 4: nature of uncertainty is that it becomes hard to predict. 62 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 4: But I will tell you that the dollar had gotten 63 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 4: so rich over the last thirteen years, and had gotten 64 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 4: to a point nine months ago where it was probably 65 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 4: a level on sustainability in its valuation. I just don't 66 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 4: see it getting back levels of February in March of 67 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 4: this year. 68 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 3: Explain to those across America listening and watching, why would 69 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 3: we should care about Japanese yet? And I saw a 70 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 3: couple of really good essays on this yesterday, But I 71 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 3: think it needs to be repeated. 72 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 4: Yes, Look, if you're a stock market investor, and let's 73 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 4: take its perspective, not a policy maker, but an investor, 74 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:25,119 Speaker 4: because I want to appeal to the readership here. If 75 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 4: you are invested in Japanese stocks, and a lot of 76 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:31,799 Speaker 4: these stocks are multinational stocks, they sell, you know, very 77 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 4: high value added industrial products of the rest of the world. 78 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 4: Their margins, they're operating margins benefit from a weekend. So 79 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 4: that's one reason why you need to pay attention to this. 80 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 4: In fact, with the weakness of the sorry, with the 81 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 4: weakness of the end that we've seen in the last 82 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 4: few few days since the political turmoil, the stock market's 83 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 4: done fantastically, which which seems to suggest to me that 84 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 4: the weakness in the end is not so much a 85 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 4: fundamental thing as much as it is a predilection on 86 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 4: the part of the investors to wonder what is the 87 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 4: central bank going to do? It's not about a weakning 88 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 4: of the of the Japanese economy. 89 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 3: I was tackled by a Morgan Stanley guy yesterday and 90 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 3: we were talking about this Dan Skelley. He's a big 91 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 3: Van Dan Skelley fan. I thought Dan was on last 92 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:11,840 Speaker 3: time was great and the guy said to me, he said, 93 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 3: this yen is hugely distabling. In the heart of the matter, 94 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 3: their wages have disappeared. They're like England in nineteen thirty 95 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 3: in terms of. 96 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 5: Real way terry. We got a government shutdown here in 97 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:28,159 Speaker 5: the United States. Is that going to affect our Federal 98 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 5: Reserve here over the next several meetings? 99 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 3: Do you think? Yeah? 100 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 2: I don't think so. 101 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 4: I mean, if what you're referring to is the premise 102 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 4: that because of a lack of official data, the Federal 103 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 4: Reserve will not know what to do, I would take 104 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 4: issue with that. There's plenty of third party data. The 105 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 4: Federal Reserve itself conduct surveys, it collects data. It will 106 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:46,720 Speaker 4: have that at hand when the meeting takes place in 107 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 4: October twenty eighth and twenty ninth to make an informed 108 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:53,159 Speaker 4: decision about where the economy is going. It doesn't rely 109 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:55,279 Speaker 4: just on official data. To say that you're a data 110 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 4: dependant does not mean that you're officially data dependent. It 111 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,719 Speaker 4: means that you're just data dependent. So I think they'll 112 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 4: have enough data. Look, my view on the FED is 113 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:08,799 Speaker 4: that there is a sufficient reason to believe that interest 114 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:12,720 Speaker 4: rate policy in the US right now is not overly restrictive. 115 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:15,720 Speaker 4: If it were, we wouldn't be seeing the stock market 116 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 4: at new highs. We wouldn't be seeing gold ripping, we 117 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 4: wouldn't be seeing corporate bond spreads as narrow as they've gotten. 118 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 4: I think the Fed needs to take all of that 119 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 4: into consideration. If they do cut, it will be a 120 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 4: very reluctant cut. I think, in view what the financial 121 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 4: markets have been doing. 122 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 5: So, I mean, is the cadence here of the Fed? 123 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:36,479 Speaker 5: Is it meeting by meeting? Do they you think they 124 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 5: have a strategy of let's cut a couple times this year, 125 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 5: then cut early next year, then we'll sit back. 126 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 4: If that I mean, Jay Powell said on September seventeenth, 127 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 4: I mean practically admitted that the cut they made in 128 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 4: September was an insurance cut. That seems to suggest that 129 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,600 Speaker 4: they're not necessarily on a path cut two or three 130 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 4: more times in wait. It really does suggest that the 131 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 4: cut was only intended to strike a balance between the 132 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 4: two mandates within the dual mandates a little bit better, 133 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 4: and it does not imply a long and profound series 134 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:10,039 Speaker 4: of right cuts. 135 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:13,279 Speaker 3: We are fortunate at Bloomberg Surveillan staff Terry Weisman with 136 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 3: this this morning from Acquary with all of his experience, 137 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 3: these headlines out. This is CNBC driving the story for 138 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 3: the President's FED chair candidates list. It's narrowed down to 139 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 3: five by the Secretary of Treasury. 140 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 2: The list here is it sounds like these guys are good. 141 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 3: They played Crossby Stills in Nash Great Bowman, Waller, Hassett, 142 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 3: Wassh writer of Blackrock in the final five, and I 143 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:46,480 Speaker 3: would suggest none of those are surprise within the fed. 144 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:49,040 Speaker 2: Derby zeite guys. I defer to Mike McKeon. 145 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:50,840 Speaker 3: That Terry Weisman, is this the way to pick a 146 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 3: chairman bye by headlines and interviews? 147 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 2: No, no, you don't. 148 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 4: You don't need these trial balloons. I don't think that's right. 149 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 4: I think that that's because disconcerning for the market, especially 150 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 4: when there's so many choices that they are looking at. 151 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 4: Look personally, I think that Chris Waller would be a 152 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 4: great choice, not because he's ideologically aligned with the administration. 153 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 4: In fact, he's not, which is one reason why I 154 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 4: think it would be a good choice. He is dubvish, 155 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 4: and I think that aligns him temporarily or short term 156 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 4: with the administration. But Chris Waller has had a long 157 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 4: history of publications in which he espoused and exhorted the 158 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 4: autonomy of the Federal Reserve, so he prevent He provides 159 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 4: a very good balance. I think willing to be dubbish 160 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 4: right now because he has his eye on the job 161 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 4: market and the prospect that employment gains are diminishing, but 162 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 4: at the same time not willing to be structurally dubbish. 163 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 4: I think that's what's needed right now in a FED 164 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 4: Chairman Love it. 165 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 2: Has taken notes, Terry. 166 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 3: I'm going to be speaking with Governor Waller at the 167 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 3: Council on Foreign Relations October sixteenth. 168 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 2: Can you be in the front row so I can 169 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 2: have you ask a smarter question. I'd love to enjoin you, Tom, 170 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 2: just to see a call with McCarry. We'll have to 171 00:07:57,240 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 2: see on that. Stay with us. 172 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 173 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 174 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 175 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 176 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 177 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 2: Joining us in now. 178 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 3: Kati Kaminski, Chief first her strategist Alpha Simplex for an 179 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 3: ample discussion here. 180 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 2: The mathematics is. 181 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 3: Just prodigious, all of it based on the trend of 182 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 3: the moment. The late Martin's wig over to FED policy 183 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 3: and economics would say, the trend is your friend in 184 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,840 Speaker 3: the stock market right now with the I would say 185 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 3: weekend panic, AI, we're all going to die. CAPEX, We're 186 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:51,319 Speaker 3: all going to die in that define the equity trend right. 187 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 6: Now, Katie, the equity trend is very strong. Signals have 188 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 6: continued to strengthen, especially since the summer, and there's really 189 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:02,439 Speaker 6: no and what's challenging as a trend foiler, you need 190 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 6: to see that resistance to pull back and all systems 191 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 6: seem to be going right now. 192 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 3: Well, Paul allowed me to go NERD twice in this interview. 193 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:11,320 Speaker 3: I'm going to do that right now and then shut 194 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:14,320 Speaker 3: up and let Paul drive it. Okay, So you have 195 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:17,319 Speaker 3: a setup, folks, and I'm going to take SPX, take 196 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 3: what NDX, whatever you want, and I'm going to take 197 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 3: out a two standard deviation trading envelope and then I'm 198 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 3: going to run it logarhythmic on the y axis to 199 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 3: show percentage change, not an arithmetic access. And then I 200 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 3: have exponential moving averages, and I look at the curve 201 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 3: of them, the first derivative and even second derivative. And 202 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 3: when you hear me say log convexity, that's what we're 203 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 3: talking about. The equity market has not giving up a 204 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:46,960 Speaker 3: bull market. Log convexity has it. 205 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 7: No, not at all. 206 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 6: And I think depending on if you use exponential moving averages, 207 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,680 Speaker 6: I mean that is going to get rid of some 208 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:56,719 Speaker 6: of that ball that you're seeing in the first part 209 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 6: of the year, So you're seeing signal strengthening and you're 210 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 6: losing some of the concern. 211 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 3: Pro to Paul, I do this on a weekly chart. 212 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 3: Is a rule of thumb. Of course, it goes daily, 213 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 3: and I go to a week ago. 214 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 4: Week with no question about that. 215 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 5: Lisa's nodding her head. She knows. She goes log on 216 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 5: on a weekly basis, Gold up fifty one percent, spots, 217 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 5: silver up seventy three percent year to date commodities. That's 218 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 5: a trend. 219 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 6: Are you guys on that exactly? I mean, that is 220 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 6: the other really interesting big trend. And we're getting a 221 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 6: lot of questions from investors about it because from both 222 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 6: a fundamental perspective, buying gold. It seems to be your 223 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 6: any precious metals seems to be that go to safe 224 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 6: haven trade. 225 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 7: When the dollar's been weaker. You're looking at the yen now. 226 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 6: Weakening, so the precious so it's buy gold and buy 227 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 6: the stock market. 228 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 7: I mean, that's kind of an interesting combo. 229 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 5: But how about the dollar. The dollar again, it folks 230 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 5: that traded off about eight nine percent from that early 231 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 5: early twenty twenty five levels. Now what's kind of stabilized? 232 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 5: It seems like, so is the sell off over? Is 233 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 5: the trend? Is that self trend kind of over for 234 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 5: the dollar? 235 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 7: That is an interesting question. 236 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 6: We have seen some idiosyncratic movements in the dollar, so 237 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 6: you're seeing certain currencies like the Swedish kroner, the Turkish 238 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 6: lira kind of gaining some ground on the dollar. My 239 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 6: view on this is it's a trend that is sort 240 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:19,079 Speaker 6: of petering out, so it's losing some of its strength. 241 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 6: And part of this is there's been so much, so 242 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 6: much backing for that weaker dollar, so much hedging demand 243 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 6: against the dollar that has built up. We also have 244 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 6: rate cuts on the horizon, which is also very negative 245 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 6: for the dollar. So I'm not saying that I'm positive 246 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 6: on the dollar yet because of that. But it is 247 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 6: a trend that, as Tom would say, losing some of 248 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 6: its convexity. 249 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 5: He's in steam, I would put. 250 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,679 Speaker 2: It, but he's lost convexity. 251 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 4: That's right exactly. 252 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 5: So what's the What are the trades you guys are 253 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 5: looking at these days? 254 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 7: So the biggest. 255 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 6: Trades that you're seeing in the market is clearly equities 256 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 6: and precious metals. But interestingly enough, you haven't seen a 257 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 6: lot of movement at fixed income. It's been long and short, 258 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 6: and it feels like that's an area we're going to 259 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:11,559 Speaker 6: have some change in the next few months, but the signals. 260 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 7: Are really weak. 261 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 5: You guys short in the market right now. 262 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 7: We're not short in the US. 263 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 6: We're seeing short positions in Europe, so you're seeing things 264 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:21,719 Speaker 6: like jgb's also and and. 265 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 7: You know the UK, but the US has remained long. 266 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 2: To be clear on your short JGB, your short price. 267 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:31,479 Speaker 7: Yes, price down, yield up, correct. 268 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 3: More worse, worser, as they say. Katie Comminsky with us 269 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:36,840 Speaker 3: for a good chat. This is for Global Wall Street. 270 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 3: We welcome all of you across America around the world 271 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 3: on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast Paul. 272 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 5: So governments shut down people like you. Do you care 273 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 5: about that? 274 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 7: I mean, I obviously care about. 275 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 6: It because I got to fly home today, you know 276 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 6: what I mean. But you know, but what's really interesting 277 00:12:56,720 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 6: is the markets are seeing through it, and they're focus 278 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 6: on growth, and they're focused on let's not miss out 279 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 6: on this AI bubble or potential rally, whichever you want 280 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 6: to call it. 281 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 7: So it's not moving on that. 282 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 2: Okay, what we're gonna do. 283 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:15,199 Speaker 3: Now, folks, it's my second dose of nerd Friday Nerds Show. 284 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 2: We welcome all of you. 285 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 3: What a privilege years ago to interview at length Ed Thorpe, who. 286 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 2: Invented so much of this. 287 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:27,959 Speaker 3: He basically, folks, took Las Vegas into the classroom, which 288 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 3: was at the time scandalous, and brought Las Vegas. How 289 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 3: do I not lose money over to the stock market? 290 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 3: How do I not lose money? Katie Kaminski, My religion 291 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 3: is anti Martingale theory. Folks, the stock you buy it 292 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 3: at one hundred, it goes to ninety. I think I'll 293 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 3: double up. That's what most people do. At Thorpe saying 294 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 3: by it at one hundred and only add to the 295 00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 3: portfolio if it goes up anti Martin gill a policy 296 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 3: out of COVID and forward. 297 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 2: How has it been working? 298 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 7: So it's had its moments. 299 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 6: I think what's really exciting about that is he talks 300 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 6: a lot at Thorpe talked a lot about Kelly betting, 301 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 6: and this is the idea that your conviction is a 302 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 6: function of the strength of the trend of your position, 303 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 6: and it works very well in poker and in other 304 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 6: areas as well, and for people who are not familiar 305 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 6: with Kelly betting, it's about this idea that you measure 306 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 6: the strength of the. 307 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 7: Probability of your bet, and when. 308 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 6: Your bet strength is stronger than you take more risk. 309 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 6: And that's sort of what trend falling is really trying 310 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 6: to do, is trying to adjust positions as a function 311 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 6: of the conviction of the markets and how they move. 312 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 6: And it works very well in a world where the 313 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 6: headline risks don't run the show. 314 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 7: So the fact that government shutdown is not causing noise. 315 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 6: You're seeing those trends being quite profitable for trend falling 316 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 6: in the last two to three months because that consistent 317 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 6: approach of measuring and adjusting is working pretty well. 318 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 5: One of those trends slash potentially bubble risk for a 319 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 5: lot of people is just this whole AI narrative in 320 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 5: the market. And it got maybe to a fever pitch 321 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 5: over the last week to two weeks when we saw 322 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 5: investments by these big tech companies like Nvidia into these 323 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 5: private companies platforms like open Ai, and then they would 324 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 5: then commit to buy chips and this circular trade. People said, boy, 325 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 5: this doesn't feel right or it feels a little fishy, 326 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 5: but boats are rising on this trade. How do you 327 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 5: guys think about that? 328 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 6: So the way we think about bubbles as a trend 329 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 6: follower is it's really about measuring. It's very hard to 330 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 6: pick tops and bottoms of any sort of trend, and 331 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 6: so what you want to think about is a trend 332 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 6: can actually go much longer than you would expect. And 333 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 6: that's this idea that Tom was talking about about the 334 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 6: Kelly wedding. So you continue to trade into it and 335 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 6: sometimes it could take months. I mean, just because we 336 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 6: are worried, it doesn't mean that the market will react. 337 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 6: We wait till the market reacts to confirm that hey, 338 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 6: this is actually you know, something that's going against us. 339 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 3: What's the biggest let me make this personal. What's the 340 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 3: biggest mistake Lisa Matteo's kids make sitting on a couch. 341 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 2: Trading through Robin Hood. 342 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 3: I want you to speak to our audience, and particularly 343 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 3: our audience with kids that are learning. They don't have 344 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 3: your mathiness. They don't know who Andrew Lowe is. Okay, 345 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 3: what's the biggest mistake the trading crew is making today? 346 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 6: I think, and this is a personal view, emotions and 347 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 6: moving on your emotions. 348 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 7: That's why we have a diligent process. Is where you 349 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 7: make the biggest mistakes. 350 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 6: And actually some of the research that Andrew low did 351 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 6: looking at investor behavior, they find that it's precisely those 352 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,600 Speaker 6: panic cells, those sort of emotions where you kind of say, 353 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 6: you know, things go down and panic that actually costs 354 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 6: you the most. So I think this idea that your 355 00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 6: emotions connected to what you decide is actually the dangerous part. 356 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,160 Speaker 5: Of a line. A lot of the math, A lot 357 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 5: of the research shows returns are generated over a longer 358 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 5: period of time and a relatively few discrete time periods. 359 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 5: So it goes to Tom's point, you need to be 360 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 5: in the market if you try to time the market. 361 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 5: I don't know that just seems like a way tough game. 362 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 5: It's just you kind of have to just be in 363 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 5: the market, you know, otherwise you're just going to miss it. 364 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:29,400 Speaker 6: I think, yeah, I mean who knows. I mean, look 365 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 6: at the equity markets now, it could be months. 366 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:33,199 Speaker 2: Jim Kramer and I've talked about this. 367 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:35,159 Speaker 3: Jim has been very good about it in speeches and 368 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:38,200 Speaker 3: that there's a huge baseball analog here and that if 369 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 3: you line up, you know, to keep it conversational. Ten trades, 370 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 3: all of your alpha comes out of two or three winners. 371 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:48,959 Speaker 3: Let's expand that out to a lifetime of trade. You've 372 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 3: got to retirement plan. Folks, you're wick a conservative and 373 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 3: you're playing a speculative portfolio. 374 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:58,160 Speaker 2: If you do one hundred events, how many of those 375 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,640 Speaker 2: really create alpha? I'm going to say eighteen out of one. 376 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 6: Hundred, So it depends for trend falling, it's much more 377 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 6: of like a fifty to fifty ratio where your hits 378 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 6: and the hit rate and the win is higher on 379 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,199 Speaker 6: that fifty to fifty. So that actually shows you that 380 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:16,680 Speaker 6: trading in the markets, it's very difficult and the edge 381 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 6: is small, and so it's the diligence that actually matters. 382 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,719 Speaker 7: As opposed to kind of picking that specific winner. 383 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 2: You can't be there the winner. 384 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 3: You can pick a set of winners. But I think 385 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 3: the industry is weaned that everything can be a winner. 386 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:33,680 Speaker 3: You can win sixty. 387 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:35,479 Speaker 2: Paul sixty percent, seventy. 388 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 3: This is there's no evidence of that within the Vanderbilt 389 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 3: is lead on this. 390 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 2: That's why Damien's nuts like. 391 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 3: Issue is they did great research at Vanderbilt, but I mean, 392 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 3: you just don't have that. It's not Munger's brilliant on this, 393 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 3: the late Charles Munger. Yeah, absolutely brilliant on. 394 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 2: This, Katie. 395 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:54,879 Speaker 5: How do you guys decide to sell a winner? 396 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 7: So the way that we think. 397 00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 2: About it's like winners philosophical. 398 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,159 Speaker 6: So the way to think about winners is when winners 399 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 6: are becoming losers, you know what I mean. So we're 400 00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:08,919 Speaker 6: always thinking about the sizing. So for example, if you 401 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 6: see a pullback, so if you see something like what 402 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,400 Speaker 6: happened in Gold, it creates some noise on your signal. 403 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 6: So that's an indication that you're kind of hitting some 404 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 6: of the top and that you're kind of seeing that resistance. 405 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 5: Because if something pulls back ten percent, you sell half 406 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 5: your position. It pulls back another ten percent, you sell 407 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 5: it all. 408 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:27,720 Speaker 7: It depends on the time horizon. 409 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,679 Speaker 6: I mean, I think where it gets tricky is in 410 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 6: these big, huge sell off moments where it's very hard 411 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 6: to ascertain, you know, is this an environment where the 412 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 6: trend is actually changed or is their noise? 413 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 7: And so we tend to use. 414 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 6: Multiple different horizons and measurements to kind of aggregate the 415 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,639 Speaker 6: have a view that's maybe more of a voting mechanism. 416 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:50,120 Speaker 2: So it's a traditional rule. 417 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,439 Speaker 3: I mean, I mean everybody used to have three hundred 418 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,160 Speaker 3: stock portfolios and then they became one hundred, and then 419 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 3: Immersing and the crew over at Fidelity invented Fidelity fifty. 420 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 2: Sequoia had a lot do with that. 421 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 3: What's the optimal stock portfolio for your mortals? 422 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 2: Listening here? 423 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 6: So I'd say, I mean for stocks, they're pretty highly correlated, 424 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 6: so you want a relatively diverse portfolio. 425 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 7: We tend to trade multi assets, so that actually. 426 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 6: Gives you a lot more diversification because you can add 427 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,440 Speaker 6: gold to your equity positions. 428 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 2: Did you add gold to your positions? 429 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 6: Yes, we've been in gold. Yeah, it's been the right call. 430 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 6: And it's been like that for about a year and 431 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:27,679 Speaker 6: a half now. So gold is an example of a 432 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 6: perfect trend. I can't tell you why, but it's doing it. 433 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:35,120 Speaker 3: One more question here to Paul's great question on AI, 434 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 3: what do you do with a MAG seven here into 435 00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 3: earning season? 436 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,399 Speaker 6: Well, this is tricky because if you look at the 437 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 6: mag seven, it's such a large proportion. And that's what 438 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,680 Speaker 6: makes me and most people nervous is you have such 439 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 6: a concentrated exposure to them. But most reports are showing 440 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,159 Speaker 6: that earnings are still looking good. So like I said before, 441 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,399 Speaker 6: well the train's still going. 442 00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, it could go for a while before we have 443 00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:00,920 Speaker 7: any sort of disruption. 444 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 3: To all of you in the stock market as you 445 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 3: prepare to read your barons here Saturday morning, Katie Kaminski 446 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:11,200 Speaker 3: said something that is religion, position sizing. 447 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,440 Speaker 2: Go out to perplexity, go out to. 448 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:19,880 Speaker 3: Whatever AI you have, type in the phrase position sizing, 449 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 3: and just read everything you can about It is a 450 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 3: heart and soul of the game. 451 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 2: Katie Kiminski, that was just absolutely fabulous. Thank you so much. 452 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,720 Speaker 3: Really appreciate that. Chief Research Strategies at Alpha. 453 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 2: Simplex stay with us. 454 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 455 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday 456 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 457 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live 458 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 459 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 1: Say Alexa Pay Bloomberg eleven thirty. 460 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 5: There's been so many AI driven stories out there. 461 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 3: Yeah. I saw a map and it's like three or 462 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 3: four states like Virginia, right, you know, I. 463 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 2: Just just I'm learning as I go. Who do I 464 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 2: learn from? I learned from. 465 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 3: Urine Timmer has been way way too long since he's 466 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:21,120 Speaker 3: been on Pro Tip. This weekend, your head is spinning. 467 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 3: Go out the LinkedIn and subscribed to Urine Timmer. Timmy 468 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:31,399 Speaker 3: ours director Global Macro at Fidelity. He is beyond generous 469 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 3: and sending you at Fidelity charts as well. 470 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 2: What are you up? 471 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 5: And also, Urine will be on the latest edition of 472 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 5: Masters in Business with One Barry Ridholds. Podcast drops tom 473 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,879 Speaker 5: this afternoon and airs on radio at seven pm Wall 474 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 5: Street Time and all weekend long. I don't know how 475 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 5: he I mean, Master's in Business. You've got to be 476 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:52,159 Speaker 5: a player to get on Masters. 477 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,040 Speaker 2: You do well. Urine Timber is a player. Let's have 478 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 2: dovetails the two together. 479 00:22:55,520 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 3: Red Holts Urine Timer has a phenomenal type two constructs 480 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 3: how not to invest when you look at all your 481 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:08,919 Speaker 3: abilities and fidelities? What should you not do? 482 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:09,439 Speaker 2: Now? 483 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,920 Speaker 8: Well, good morning. You know, as you're a very great 484 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 8: previous guest mentioned you know, having a system is very important. 485 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 8: And you know, the market goes up ten eleven percent 486 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 8: per year, it rises sixty seventy percent of the time, 487 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 8: but it has it's volatile and thirty to forty percent 488 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,439 Speaker 8: of the time the market drops and nobody likes that 489 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 8: unless you're a short seller. And so having a plan 490 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 8: for those times is really what separates the investors who 491 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 8: compound from the ones who don't. So I like to 492 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:48,119 Speaker 8: think of it as the price of admission for that 493 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 8: juicy return is to not lose your stuff when the 494 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 8: market doesn't go the way you want it. And so 495 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,640 Speaker 8: I think that's really the most important thing in investing 496 00:23:58,760 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 8: for all. 497 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 2: Of you worldwide. This is the way we rolled the 498 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 2: Charles River. We go from the north shore of the South. 499 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 3: Short for ninety two nine FM in Boston Katie Kaminski 500 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,880 Speaker 3: out of m I t over Devonshire Street in buildings 501 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,400 Speaker 3: in the back Bay with your in timor. 502 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,240 Speaker 5: Exactly here, and you sit back there at Fidelity as 503 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:21,879 Speaker 5: director of Global Macro from a global perspective, what looks 504 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 5: attractive to you these days? 505 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 8: What really gets me excited these days is the how 506 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,439 Speaker 8: the rest of the world. So we know, you know, 507 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 8: the US has been exceptional. The Max seven have dominated 508 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 8: really for the last you know decade. It was the 509 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 8: Fangs before the Max seven, and so we know about this, 510 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:47,320 Speaker 8: you know, supremacy premium that US assets have always enjoyed 511 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,639 Speaker 8: and they still obviously continue to enjoy. And we've got 512 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:54,959 Speaker 8: the AI story overlaying that. And for many many years, 513 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 8: you know, value oriented investors would say, well, look at 514 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,680 Speaker 8: look at EA or EM or just you know MSCI 515 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 8: x US index. It's trading at you know, a PE 516 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 8: that is so much lower than the US. Why don't 517 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 8: we do the whole mean reversion trade and go there 518 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 8: and sell the expensive US. And you know, that doesn't 519 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,720 Speaker 8: really work until you have an actual catalyst that drives 520 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:22,359 Speaker 8: value into the shareholder's pocket. And so for many years 521 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 8: we did not have that. But in the last year 522 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:29,439 Speaker 8: or two, or really last year or so, that's finally happening. 523 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,400 Speaker 8: So especially for the MSCI EFA, which is the Non 524 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:38,320 Speaker 8: US Developed Markets Index. They are companies there. So mostly 525 00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:42,479 Speaker 8: Europe and Japan have really started to unlock shareholder value. 526 00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 8: You know, even like regional banks in Japan are now 527 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:49,240 Speaker 8: buying back shares. And that might sound trivial, but when 528 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,359 Speaker 8: you look at a discounted cash flow model, you obviously 529 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:56,159 Speaker 8: look at long term earnings projections, but almost as importantly 530 00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 8: you look at the share of those earnings that get 531 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 8: reached turned back to shareholders in the form of dividends 532 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 8: and buybacks, and so the growth rate of the PO, 533 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,639 Speaker 8: of the payout and the payout ratio, so the percentage 534 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:16,119 Speaker 8: of earnings that are returned is very important. And for EFA, 535 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 8: over the last five years, the PO has actually grown 536 00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:24,720 Speaker 8: faster than in the US, and the payout ratio, which 537 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,320 Speaker 8: always used to be lower in the rest of the world, 538 00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 8: is now at seventy five percent for EFA, and it's 539 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 8: at seventy five percent for the US only the composition 540 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 8: is different. For non US markets, it's two thirds dividends 541 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,400 Speaker 8: one third buyback and in the US it's the opposite. 542 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:46,520 Speaker 8: But you have now very competitive fundamentals, and non US 543 00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 8: stocs are trading at fifteen sixteen, the US is trading 544 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,359 Speaker 8: at twenty five. So finally, for the first time in 545 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,680 Speaker 8: a very long time, we're now in a global bull 546 00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:00,160 Speaker 8: market where the pond has gotten bigger, which is good, 547 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,399 Speaker 8: right because we all have to deal with the concentration 548 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 8: risk of the MAC seven. But there are other places 549 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,400 Speaker 8: to go, which which is good for an investor. 550 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,720 Speaker 5: You're in earnings start in earnest next week with the banks. 551 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,359 Speaker 5: I know your team's at Fideli, all the annals, the 552 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,480 Speaker 5: army you've got there will be pouring over the earnings releases. 553 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:20,439 Speaker 5: What are you looking for for this earning season. 554 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,359 Speaker 8: Well, what we had in the last couple of quarters 555 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:29,879 Speaker 8: was earnings beats that were well north of what we 556 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:32,199 Speaker 8: typically see. So we all know this is the oldest 557 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 8: game when the world ride companies guide lower and then 558 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:39,080 Speaker 8: they under promise and over deliver, and then during earning season, 559 00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,680 Speaker 8: you know they beat by three four hundred basis points, 560 00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:46,399 Speaker 8: and that's fairly typical. Earlier this year, of course, we 561 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,880 Speaker 8: had the tariff Tan triff earnings revisions were were being 562 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,240 Speaker 8: cut down and then they were sort of you know, 563 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 8: brought back up again. When when the when the worst 564 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,639 Speaker 8: case tariff situation did not develop, and then we had 565 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,920 Speaker 8: the one big, beautiful bill. And so right now the 566 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,400 Speaker 8: earnings growth rate, the expected growth rate for Q three 567 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:09,840 Speaker 8: is at seven percent, and if recent history is any guide, 568 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,680 Speaker 8: will go well into the double digits. And that will 569 00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,920 Speaker 8: then be three quarters in a row of double digit 570 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:15,680 Speaker 8: earnings growth. 571 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:17,359 Speaker 2: And what more do you want? 572 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 8: Right in a market that is expensive and now about 573 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 8: to enter its fourth year of the. 574 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,080 Speaker 3: Secure war on I got ninety seconds, and this single 575 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,119 Speaker 3: sentence in your report is too important. 576 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:32,160 Speaker 2: You cannot see a bubble coming. 577 00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 3: You can only discuss a bubble after the fact. Give 578 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 3: me one attribute that gets you out front of a 579 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:42,719 Speaker 3: quote unquote bubble. 580 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 8: They always last longer than people think. I've done the 581 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 8: analogs all the way back to the tulipmania, and they 582 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 8: are by definition they are chaotic patterns. They're parabolas, and 583 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 8: those are not rational linear patterns. So this is why 584 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 8: bubb will suck everybody in, because otherwise they would not 585 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 8: be a bude. 586 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 2: I can't say enough about that. Folks. 587 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:09,479 Speaker 3: You're in tim or any X axis, everything takes longer. 588 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,080 Speaker 3: And if you're betting against a big time in out 589 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 3: in out, as mister Maynard Kine said, guess what, Paul, 590 00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 3: you run out of money? You're in timor thank you 591 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 3: so much at Fidelity, Director Global Macrowth. 592 00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 2: Stay with us. 593 00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 594 00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:36,959 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 595 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 596 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,280 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 597 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. 598 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 2: Now back to regular newspapers. The I'm afraid to ask? 599 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:53,360 Speaker 2: What do you got? 600 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:53,960 Speaker 4: Okay? 601 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,760 Speaker 9: We touched upon this yesterday with PepsiCo earnings, but the 602 00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 9: Wall Street Journal has this deeper look into the makeover 603 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 9: of Lays potato chips. Okay, because health contests consumers. You 604 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 9: did look Okay, let's start with the bag. Okay, this 605 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:12,880 Speaker 9: is it. Okay, we're watching on YouTube. This is what 606 00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:14,720 Speaker 9: the bag looked like before, So they're going to be 607 00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 9: changing it. You have this shiny yellow bag with a 608 00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 9: little potato on the bottom. 609 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:20,200 Speaker 4: Okay, so what it's going to be. 610 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 9: It's going to have a phrase it says made with 611 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:27,960 Speaker 9: real potatoes and more shiny asopos to the ingredients on 612 00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:31,600 Speaker 9: the bag. I'm not sure, but the Shining bags are 613 00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:33,200 Speaker 9: going to have this matt finish. It's going to have 614 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 9: pictures of potatoes and chips and more kind of natural 615 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 9: look to it, okay, And it's going to have wordings 616 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 9: that say no artificial. 617 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,360 Speaker 7: Colors, no artificial dyes, flavors. 618 00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,120 Speaker 9: It's going to have that on the front and on 619 00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 9: the back it's going to have the original chip recipe 620 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,560 Speaker 9: from herman Ze himself. 621 00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 5: Nice. 622 00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 9: So a lot of ingredient changes, it's all because of 623 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:53,480 Speaker 9: what's going on, you. 624 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 4: Know today through industry. 625 00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,520 Speaker 9: It's through the whole food industry. We always hear about 626 00:30:57,520 --> 00:30:59,440 Speaker 9: different companies kind of taking out these dyes. 627 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 4: A dumb question, please. 628 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,040 Speaker 2: Is French is mustard really yellow? 629 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,040 Speaker 3: His hinz ketchup really red. 630 00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 9: I'm sure it's not as red as but that's the 631 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 9: problem is that these colors, like the barbecue potato chips, 632 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,200 Speaker 9: they're this red color. But it's because of you know, 633 00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 9: the artificial color. 634 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,560 Speaker 3: Is a dumb question. You got to get the next story. 635 00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:26,160 Speaker 3: Who cares what the color is? If the bag if 636 00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 3: chips has a pound of salt in. 637 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:29,880 Speaker 4: The right we're talking about it. 638 00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 3: We're like missing what we're really talking about how many 639 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 3: bags did you have this morning? 640 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,560 Speaker 4: I had a bag this morning. I had that, like 641 00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:38,960 Speaker 4: a bag like that, And I'm just fine. 642 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:40,680 Speaker 9: Forty milligrams of sodium. 643 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,320 Speaker 3: I can. I'm sure that mister Bloomberg's listening. His p 644 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,880 Speaker 3: and L has gotten shaken. Every day when I walk 645 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 3: out of here, I sneak out a bag of cheese sorts. Yeah, 646 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:55,480 Speaker 3: it doesn't just yeah, just because it hurts the blue 647 00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 3: And what do you got next? 648 00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 9: Okay, what else we have in the blueberry pantry? That 649 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 9: would be macha? Yes, okay, have my macha here. It's 650 00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:07,520 Speaker 9: a look into macha media. But this is serious, this 651 00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:11,240 Speaker 9: is financial times. They're saying, can Japan sustain the demand 652 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,200 Speaker 9: because the demand has gotten so great, not just for 653 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:17,280 Speaker 9: like Macha lattes, but for things like Macha flavored kit kats, 654 00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 9: matcha flavored cookies, Macha flavored you know, ice cream. 655 00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:21,560 Speaker 2: All this. 656 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,680 Speaker 5: I mean, it's a stapless ste's a maaf It's. 657 00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:26,800 Speaker 9: Yes, it's the from the green tea leaves. It's a 658 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:27,480 Speaker 9: powder made. 659 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,680 Speaker 5: From Okay, okay, so it's green tea tea leaves. 660 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 9: Yes, it's crushed into a powder, and the powder is 661 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 9: what you use in the macha, but. 662 00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:36,840 Speaker 4: You have to put something in the mancha to make 663 00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:40,240 Speaker 4: it even drinkable. I actually take milk and I put 664 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:42,120 Speaker 4: a little stup in here, sugar. 665 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,360 Speaker 9: All right, but it's becoming this, this big thing. I mean, 666 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,280 Speaker 9: Japan's exports of powdered green teas were up seventy. 667 00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:50,680 Speaker 4: Twenty twenty four. 668 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 9: So it goes to show you how much this is. 669 00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:53,680 Speaker 5: On the rise. 670 00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 9: So it can become a problem. 671 00:32:56,280 --> 00:33:00,360 Speaker 2: Eno squeeze in one. Make it something I please with. 672 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:01,040 Speaker 5: Yes, okay? 673 00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:03,040 Speaker 9: This one also, well, there was a lot of talk 674 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 9: right over whether trimming down the New York City mayor 675 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:09,440 Speaker 9: oal race would trim Zor Mundami's lead. And there's a 676 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,720 Speaker 9: new Quinnipiac poll that shows it's starting to happen. Mandammi's 677 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 9: lead over forming anomb Andrew Cuomo. It's narrowed after Mayor 678 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,479 Speaker 9: Eric Adams exited. So here's what they show in their 679 00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,720 Speaker 9: latest poll. He leads a race forty six percent back 680 00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:25,000 Speaker 9: to him, followed by Cuomo with thirty three percent, Curtis 681 00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 9: Slieva fifteen percent. Now, when you look before, when it 682 00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,400 Speaker 9: was a four way race, it showed that Mandami had 683 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,719 Speaker 9: forty five percent to support, twenty three percent for Cuomo, 684 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,320 Speaker 9: fifteen percent for Sleeve. So it's looking like, you know, 685 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,800 Speaker 9: nearly all of Adam's supporters are turning to Cuomo at 686 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:41,240 Speaker 9: this point. 687 00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:45,560 Speaker 3: To the mayoral staffs listening on Bloomberg eleven threeh we 688 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,840 Speaker 3: are honored to have your candidates come in and talk 689 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,680 Speaker 3: to us, mister Sleeve in this week and to get 690 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,680 Speaker 3: all the rest of him. Frankly, numerous times before the. 691 00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 5: First, mister Ammos, so we have not I explained, Miss 692 00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:58,880 Speaker 5: Bani wants a leave. 693 00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,080 Speaker 2: Very good newspapers with Lisa Matteo. 694 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:07,360 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 695 00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:11,760 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 696 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:15,360 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 697 00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 698 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,880 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 699 00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:24,800 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal