1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:09,840 Speaker 3: All right, here we go front of the ten. 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: We're growing in so spect. 5 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 4: We're sitting it to cash touchtop. 6 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 7 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: go to win. 8 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 3: That's incredible being bank, small bank, I like to make money. 9 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate kabine. 10 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 3: You want to pa and we are under way. 11 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network podcast. Here for NFL Best 12 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: Bets Week two. Brendan Glasheen joined by our Action Network 13 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: NFL analyst Brandon Anderson. Not a great week one, Brandon, 14 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: let's just get this out there now, h quickly. What 15 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,160 Speaker 1: went wrong after a rough week one? 16 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, it wasn't great. 17 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 2: Nine beats. We came away just about four units down. 18 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 2: We'll get it back, we find. But Panthers Island did 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 2: not go well for US. Jets Island on Monday night 20 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 2: did not go well. 21 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 1: You're a gambler who bets on the Jets? 22 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 3: Who have you not learned anything about betting? 23 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 1: The Jets are gonna come back? 24 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 3: Think Green Bay, Seattle. 25 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 2: We got a little bit of a tough beat on 26 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 2: both of those, even hit one of those where we're 27 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 2: only just down a little bit on the week so 28 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 2: you know it's week one. You can't overreact. I overreacted 29 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 2: a little bit on Sunday. It's hard you get stuck 30 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 2: in the moment. It's a long season ahead. We're gonna 31 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 2: make some bets, especially here. 32 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 3: I'm gonna bet a lot. 33 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 2: Of long shots this season, so you're gonna have some swings, 34 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 2: but we'll come out ahead at the end. 35 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 3: So yeah, let's get it back in week two. 36 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: The structure of these episodes each week Brandon will bring 37 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: his best bets for the upcoming slate starting over the weekend, 38 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 1: possibly Monday night. We'll get to a look aheadline later 39 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 1: on Brandon identifies a game he likes. Now in week 40 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 1: number three, you can find Brandon Anderson in the free 41 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 1: award winning Action Network Auphere he'll track his picks from 42 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 1: the podcast Futures Awards, et cetera. And we'll have more 43 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: on this as we go through. Because it's important to 44 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 1: note if you are a new listener, and we expect 45 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 1: new listeners throughout the year, so we appreciate you finding us. 46 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 4: Okay, without further ado, this is. 47 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 3: Your best bet. 48 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,239 Speaker 1: We have four best bets from Brandon for week two. 49 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 2: Number one, Look, we didn't have a great week one, 50 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 2: but the one easy clean bet we hit. We gotta 51 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 2: go back to the well we went Steelers under last week. 52 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 2: Let's do it again, Steelers Broncos under thirty six and 53 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 2: a half. Let's get ugly right out of the gates. 54 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's defense obviously is the standout unit here, especially against 55 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 2: bo Nicks. Like I gotta say, only one game, bow 56 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 2: Nick does not looked like an NFL quarterback to me. 57 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 3: He's floating balls. 58 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 2: I think you could have had a bunch of interceptions 59 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 2: last week justin fields. I don't know that that went great. 60 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 2: But we're doing it again. No throws in the middle 61 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,679 Speaker 2: of the field, apparently, Arthur Smith says by design. We'll 62 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 2: see about that. No Russell Wilson revenge game. But look, 63 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 2: you hear Steelers Broncos. Nobody needs to tell you you 64 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 2: want an under like I don't need to make the case. 65 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 2: You know these teams are going to score very much. 66 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 2: The problem is it's thirty six and a half. So 67 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 2: that's the thing I gonna focus on here. Tomlin Early 68 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 2: season row Downder September October. We did that last week, 69 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 2: sixty seven percent to the under looks like we might 70 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 2: have like a windy day here sixty four percent of 71 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 2: the under and windy games, and then week two unders 72 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:26,360 Speaker 2: forty year below forty six twenty one and three to 73 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:29,639 Speaker 2: the under sixty nine percent, and since November twenty nineteen 74 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:32,959 Speaker 2: unders at thirty seven or blow, we're there thirty four 75 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 2: twelve and one to the under seventy four percent. This 76 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 2: is when we did all last season too, Brandon, they 77 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 2: cannot drop these low lines low enough. 78 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 3: Now. 79 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 2: I paused, because thirty seven is our last key number 80 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:47,640 Speaker 2: on the way down. We do land at thirty seven 81 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 2: a lot, and we missed it. We're thirty six and 82 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 2: a half now, So I thought, all right, maybe we can't, 83 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 2: maybe we missed it. But I looked and in that 84 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 2: trend forty seven games, only six times did we land 85 00:03:58,200 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 2: within two and a half on either side of that 86 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 2: seven so and actually no thirty sevens at all. So 87 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 2: I'm not gonna be thrown off by it. You know 88 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 2: you'll want the under in this game. You know you 89 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 2: don't expect points, don't overthink it under all the way 90 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 2: Steelers Broncos, get the best number you can. 91 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 3: But I'll take the under thirty six and a half. 92 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 4: You ain't not to us no more, now, you know 93 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 4: what I mean? 94 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,600 Speaker 1: Ten to fifteen miles per hour wins on Sunday afternoon 95 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: in Denver, fourth twenty five start. 96 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 4: Let's go to pick two. 97 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: Please, we're gonna go a team total. 98 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 3: We are. I'm gonna take the forty nine ers team total. 99 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 2: We'll go over on this one over twenty five and 100 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 2: a half at my Minnesota Vikings. A little bit of 101 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 2: Vikings flavor on this one. So look, we saw the 102 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:40,599 Speaker 2: Niners on Monday night against our Jets. Pick good reminder 103 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 2: that the Niners are really good. I think every bit 104 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 2: is good as the Chiefs until proven otherwise. Even though 105 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:48,039 Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey, we don't know if we're getting him in 106 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 2: this game either. They did miss a beat Jordan Mason 107 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 2: suddenly like a star running back. The Niners scored eight 108 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 2: straight possessions against a really good at Jets defense that 109 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,160 Speaker 2: had been top five DVOA two years in a row. 110 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 2: So now Brian Flor's defense, Brian Floor has been great 111 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 2: against bad quarterbacks and against bad offenses like the Giants 112 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 2: last week. That's where Brian Floor is in the defense. 113 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 3: Cook. But if you look last year. I didn't have to. 114 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 2: Look too hard to figure this out as a Vikings fan. 115 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 2: When the Vikings play a top half of the league 116 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 2: offense by DBA. Last season, they were two to seven 117 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 2: straight up. One of those wins was against early season 118 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 2: Love before he got things going. The other win was 119 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 2: against these Niners. But no Trent Williams, no Deebo Samuel 120 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 2: Trent Diebo are playing this week. We know how they 121 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 2: good they are with Trent in those seven losses to 122 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 2: top half of the league DVA, which, by the way, 123 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,600 Speaker 2: the Niners are clearly top half their number one pretty much. 124 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 2: Minnesota allowed thirty points a game in those seven losses 125 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 2: versus fifteen point eight all the rest of the games 126 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 2: in their season. That's the difference. Brian Floor is gonna 127 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 2: muck it up. He's gonna make it ugly. He's gonna 128 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 2: bring all the blitz. And it works if you don't 129 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 2: have a line, and you don't have a quarterback, and 130 00:05:57,600 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 2: you can't figure stuff out and your weapons can't break things. 131 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 2: Oh no, none of those things are true about the Niners. 132 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 2: I think that this offense healthy now, even if whether 133 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 2: McCaffrey's there or not, I'm going to pick apart this 134 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 2: defense if that Flora's rush does not get home, and 135 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 2: based on what we saw on Monday night, I think 136 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,559 Speaker 2: it gets home. So a couple numbers for you here. 137 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,680 Speaker 2: Niners last year won fourteen games. They scored twenty four 138 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 2: or more every single one of their wins. We need 139 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 2: twenty five and a half. They scored twenty seven or 140 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:27,839 Speaker 2: more all but one of those. So I love this 141 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,359 Speaker 2: team total. I think it's getting suppressed by the overall 142 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 2: under or the overall total for the game. In their 143 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 2: wins last year, they average almost thirty three points a game. 144 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:40,160 Speaker 2: They had thirty or more ten out of the fourteen wins, 145 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:42,479 Speaker 2: So you know, I gotta do it a little escalator 146 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 2: here over twenty nine and a half. So thirty plus 147 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 2: points is plus two to ten. We'll sprinkle that a 148 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 2: little bit as well. If you want to go all 149 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 2: in six of their fourteen wins at thirty four more points, 150 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 2: you can go thirty four plus for plus four to 151 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 2: twenty five. Just a tiny little bit on that. Look, 152 00:06:58,120 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 2: we just saw the almost that number against the Jets. 153 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 2: We've seen them do that a lot. This is an 154 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 2: offense that is clearly in mid season mode, and I 155 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 2: don't think brand floor is and the defense are going 156 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 2: to slow them down. 157 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan five months to prepare. They probably have a 158 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: scout ready on the Giants. So good luck Dave Ball 159 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: and company. I love this next one. It's a great 160 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 1: look by you earlier in the week, and I think 161 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 1: you're going to touch on this why it's important to 162 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: find you in the app as the week unfolds before 163 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 1: we get to this Friday morning release. 164 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 4: It's a prop play. 165 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 3: It is. 166 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 2: We're going to the Cooper Cup here. We're taking the 167 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 2: Cooper Cup escalator. 168 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 3: Like if you watch the. 169 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 2: Rams at all last week, you saw a lot of 170 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 2: Cooper Cup. My managers catching passes like an every single 171 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 2: dropback Sunday night, we watch it happen. So where are 172 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 2: the Rams at Both tackles are out, probably the swing 173 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 2: tackle is out. Now they got a guard on ir. 174 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 2: The offensive line is just in the hospital. Kukanakua is out. 175 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 2: So the Rams season long fade. That ron looking pretty good, 176 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 2: Arizona's favorite in this game. I don't need a side here. 177 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 2: I want my Cooper Cup overs. I want a receptions 178 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 2: over an escalator. So the Cardinals, neither defense is very 179 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 2: good here, But the Cardinals are my dead last defense 180 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 2: in the league, and they kind of looked the part 181 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 2: once Buffalo set Alin last week. Matt Stafford looked amazing. 182 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 2: Matt Stafford's making all the throws. Cooper Cup fourteen catches, 183 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 2: one hundred and ten yards and a touchdown on twenty 184 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 2: one targets on Sunday night, and that was against the Lions, 185 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 2: who are like a pretty solid defense. 186 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 3: At least. 187 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 2: Now it's the Cardinals, Brandon, I got a little trivia 188 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 2: question for you. I'm putting you on the spot. 189 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 3: Who goes out? Yep? 190 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 2: Tyler Higbee is out, He's on ir Who else can 191 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 2: you name on this team? 192 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:33,199 Speaker 3: No running backs? Give me receivers, tight ends, or receivers 193 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 3: that are not named Cooper Cup. What do you got? 194 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 1: DeMarcus Robinson is still right good? 195 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 4: Yes, Oh, I have to name them all. 196 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:41,960 Speaker 3: Anyone else? I just any other names. 197 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 4: Josh Renold wasn't there anymore. 198 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 3: He was He's gone through Troy and gone. 199 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 2: Tyler Johnson, Old Minnesota draft pick, was probably their wide 200 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 2: receiver two two to at well. Kobe Parkinson is the 201 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,559 Speaker 2: tight end. These are the names, and that's why we're 202 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 2: playing Cooper Cup because my man's going to catch every 203 00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 2: look Stafford can possibly throw at him. This is like 204 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 2: their game. Basically, they're just gonna keep on throwing it 205 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 2: to him. I think twenty twenty one Cooper Cup is back. 206 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 2: That was the huge year when he led the league 207 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 2: in receptions, yards, the whole thing. In that season, he 208 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,440 Speaker 2: had at least seven catches all but two games. 209 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 3: We're going over seven and a half. So that's the floor. 210 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 2: All we need is one above his near floor game 211 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 2: to game the average eight and a half. He was 212 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 2: over the number ten out of seventeen games in that season, 213 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 2: and then we're gonna do the escalator ten or more catches. 214 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 2: He did that five times that season, and he doesn't 215 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 2: normally get to the fourteen catches mark. He doesn't normally 216 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 2: just totally load up. So I'm gonna take the escalator 217 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 2: just to ten and stop. But yeah, you do have 218 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:38,719 Speaker 2: to follow in the app. This is one that has 219 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 2: been steamed a little bit since it's come out. Over 220 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 2: seven and a half was plus odds when it first came. 221 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 2: I don't know what the books are doing with that. 222 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 2: Grab it there, Grab the best number you can. That's 223 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 2: basically instruction. Here the best number you can. We like 224 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 2: this play ten plus escalator. I got at plus three 225 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:55,679 Speaker 2: twenty in the app. Be sure to follow there. Just again, 226 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 2: I like the plays either way, get the best number 227 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 2: you can. I think Cooper Cup is going to have 228 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 2: a big day, So we're going receptions escalator on Cooper Cup, 229 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 2: all right. 230 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 1: Last best bet, best bet number four. Another total game total. 231 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, another under here, but unlike our first under that 232 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 2: was an ugly under, We're going to the other end 233 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:16,959 Speaker 2: of the spectrum. I think we get the highest total 234 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 2: on the board here here the box lions under fifty 235 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 2: one and a half. So a big part of it 236 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 2: is just that's a really high number. It's really hard 237 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 2: to go over these high totals. So we saw this 238 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:28,839 Speaker 2: game last year, right, We saw it in the playoffs, 239 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 2: tied going to the fourth quarter, thirty one twenty three 240 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,679 Speaker 2: finals score. Baker throws three hundred and fifty yards, three touchdowns, 241 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:37,440 Speaker 2: two picks, like the full Baker right. So I think 242 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 2: that's part of why this is getting met up. And 243 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 2: also a lot of injuries on the Tampa defense. Here, 244 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:47,319 Speaker 2: no Antoine Winfield, he's a star safety. Three corners are out. 245 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,079 Speaker 2: They still have Jamel Dean though, which is important against 246 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 2: Amanaa Saint Brown. But the secondary is definitely compromised here. 247 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 3: Now. 248 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 2: Detroit, I don't think is super deep in the weapons. 249 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 2: So what I see happening here is I think Detroit 250 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:02,320 Speaker 2: controls the game a lot, but I think they control 251 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:05,839 Speaker 2: it by doing lots of five yard out, seven yard slant. 252 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 2: I think they're just gonna have Jared Goff gonna slowly 253 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 2: take what is available, and it's gonna be available against 254 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 2: this defense. But Detroit is not a Niners chunk plays 255 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 2: team like you just talked about to me, like the 256 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 2: explosive down the field, blow you up team. I think 257 00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:22,319 Speaker 2: that Dame Cam was going to come into this game 258 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 2: and just be like, look, you're injured defense and Baker 259 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 2: Mayfield on the road are not beating us. Let's just 260 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:32,440 Speaker 2: take care of business here. Let's bite some kneecaps and 261 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 2: get the job done. The Bucks offense they looked good 262 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 2: last week. That was Washington. I'm not gonna make a 263 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,560 Speaker 2: lot of that. They were an outlier third down team. 264 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 2: I know that's carried over from last year, but I 265 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 2: feel like that's probably gonna regress a little bit soon enough. 266 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 2: Lion's defense has been pretty stout, especially against the run game, 267 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 2: So it's on Baker. On the other side, I think 268 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 2: Jared Goff will be fine, but it is Todd Bowles. 269 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 2: Todd Bowles brings a lot of blitz, a lot of 270 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 2: aggression that has not gone well always for Jared Goff. 271 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 2: I think you'll be fine with the protection here. But 272 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 2: either one of these quarterbacks can just turn into a 273 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 2: pumpkin any given day. Right, we're in fall season now, 274 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 2: we might get a pumpkin from either team here. I 275 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 2: don't think we're gonna get a shootout. What I think 276 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:15,959 Speaker 2: is we're gonna get the other game that these teams 277 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 2: played last year. They played in October and it was 278 00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 2: twenty to six Detroit twenty to six. They chewed up 279 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 2: the clock thirty seven minutes of possession. The total of 280 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:28,200 Speaker 2: that one was forty three and a half. That's about 281 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:29,719 Speaker 2: what I think the total ought to be here. I 282 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:31,439 Speaker 2: think this is off by like a whole touchdown. I 283 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:34,280 Speaker 2: got really surprised the number was so high. Todd Bowles 284 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 2: rode under sixty two percent for his career, and then 285 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 2: when the totals fifty one are over Dan Campbell sixty 286 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 2: seven percent of the under Jared Goff sixty five percent 287 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 2: to the under, so definitely get the fifty one and 288 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 2: a half if you can. 289 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 3: Don't wait around. 290 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 2: We don't need it over That fifty one is a 291 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 2: key number, so grab that now if you can. But 292 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 2: get the best number you can and take the under 293 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 2: fifty one and a half bucks lions. 294 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 1: If you've ever thought about becoming an Action Ro subscriber, 295 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 1: now is the best time to sign up. For less 296 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: than ten dollars a month, get a year of Action 297 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 1: Pro access across every sport, which includes Claire prop picks 298 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: and projection edges from Sean Kerner and the entire Action 299 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 1: Analytics team Shan Zarillo. He has projections for baseball, Colin 300 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 1: Wilson and Stuckey for college football, and now Sean Kerner's 301 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 1: NFL anytime touchdown and first touchdown projections are part of 302 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 1: Action Pro, so you can find the biggest edges across 303 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: the entire NFL slate. Actions podcast listeners can use code 304 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 1: pod twenty to get an extra twenty dollars off. That's 305 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 1: Pod pod twenty for twenty dollars off a year of 306 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 1: Action Pro. Just visit Actionnetwork dot com, slash pricing or 307 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: follow the link in this episode's description as a quick 308 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 1: reminder if you're looking for the UFC podcast we do 309 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 1: every Friday. Now the NFL has begun, Shwan Zarillo and 310 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 1: Billy Ward, they are still doing their thing. 311 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 4: The show is moved over. 312 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: To the Action Network YouTube channel, so check those guys 313 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: out over there. 314 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:08,400 Speaker 4: All right, those are your four best. 315 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:13,680 Speaker 1: Bets long Shot Lightning Round from mister Anderson Condo. 316 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 4: Lightning Round. 317 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 1: There's a theme to how you want to break down 318 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: these particular plays, there is, and just to. 319 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 2: Be clear to listeners, these are all still best bets 320 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 2: to me. This is how I bet We're gonna take 321 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 2: some long shots. These are half unit plays, but we 322 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 2: want to win big. We're gonna swing for the fences 323 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 2: on some of these. And I think this week, Brandon, 324 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 2: we talked with us on the Tuesday roundtable, so you 325 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 2: can listen to that if you haven't yet. Right on 326 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 2: this feed, I think it's a teaser trap week. We've 327 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 2: got like seven games right now with the line about 328 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 2: six six and a half depending on where things settle. Basically, 329 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 2: those lines are are begging us as betters to tease 330 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 2: that down to the coin flip and just get a win. 331 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 2: Just get the win, baby. Look I've played those before. 332 00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 2: I've given that out on this podcast. Here's something to 333 00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 2: be aware of. Road favorites by six or six and 334 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 2: a half points are only fifty or fifty four percent 335 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 2: fading those teams. So if you back a team that 336 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 2: is the home six six and a half underdog fifty 337 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 2: four percent, that already is two to ozer Arizona last 338 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 2: week in Denver last week they both covered by half 339 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 2: a point, but they covered as the underdog in that spot. 340 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 2: And importantly, about a third of those underdogs win outright. 341 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 2: So if you play the money line, there's about a 342 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 2: fifteen percent ROI and the money line, and if you 343 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 2: just play the six and a half dogs thirty percent 344 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 2: ROI over the last two decades. 345 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 3: That is a monster number. 346 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 2: And that is the trap that we're going to be 347 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 2: aware of and bet against this. 348 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 4: Suek all right, very good. 349 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 1: These overreaction lines too, as far as the books are concerned. 350 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 4: After one week is wet. 351 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 2: I think, yeah, I think I think that's really it is. 352 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 2: It's week two is overreaction the week and I think 353 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 2: these lines have moved a little bit too far for reaction. 354 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 2: And then a little bit further for teaser protection. So 355 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 2: let's jump in and this is where we would maybe 356 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 2: be looking to take the plus six of the plus 357 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 2: six and a half. But because the trend I'm looking at, 358 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 2: that trend is slightly positive playing the ats, it's way better, 359 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,840 Speaker 2: though riskier playing the money line. Brandon, I'm about way 360 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 2: better but riskier. That's my style. So let's do this first. 361 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 2: One Bengals money line at the Chiefs plus two ten 362 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 2: is Joe Burrow, hurt is Jamar Chase Ready is T 363 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 2: Higgins playing every watch this game. 364 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 3: I thought they got a little bit unlucky. He shook it. 365 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 2: They'll shake off some rust. Joe Burrow is an underdog, 366 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 2: including playoff games fifteen and three against the spread, He's 367 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 2: won eight of the last eleven. Outright, you play the 368 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 2: money line in those games one hundred and six percent, ROI, 369 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 2: that's really good. We're gonna back Joe Burrow. He's three 370 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 2: and one straight up against Patrick Mahomes, all three of 371 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 2: those wins. As an underdog, you might be able to 372 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 2: wait here. I think this line's gonna rise a touch, 373 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 2: but two hundred or longer. 374 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 3: I got it at plus two ten today. That's the Bengals. 375 00:16:57,280 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 3: That's one. 376 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 2: Next one Sunday Night Houston the Chicago Bears plus two 377 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 2: forty on the money line, I make these teams pretty 378 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 2: close to even. Any of the defenses are similar. Chicago's 379 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 2: looking pretty good. Houston's offense obviously a little bit better. 380 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 2: I think Chicago can hold up against the pass rush. 381 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 2: Those tackles can do their job. I think Chicago's defense 382 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 2: can hold up. I think we have a possible narrative 383 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,679 Speaker 2: swing here. Everybody loves CJ. Stroud and boy do we 384 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 2: love to dump on Caleb Williams for how bad it 385 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:30,879 Speaker 2: looked in one week. It's just one week. It's overreaction. 386 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 2: Caleb Williams lives for these primetime moments. I can see 387 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 2: him having a good game here. And we talked on 388 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:40,920 Speaker 2: Tuesday Brandon about that Sunday Night Monday Night get right teaser, right, 389 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:43,479 Speaker 2: and we know Kirk's not being the Eagles on Monday Night. 390 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 2: We'll talk about that one on Sunday. So again, an 391 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,680 Speaker 2: upside on one of these two. Maybe it's the Bears 392 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 2: plus two forty. So those are my first two. Any 393 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 2: thoughts on Bears or Bengals. 394 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Bengals, they get the Washington Commanders next week 395 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: is a seven point home favorite, and the Bears are 396 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: dogs again next week visiting Indianapolis. This is a big 397 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 1: game for Caleb, a big game for the I hear 398 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: you there, I hear you on the on the Texans, 399 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 1: maybe a little bit too much love. Joe Mixon was outstanding, outstanding, 400 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: But I think the Bears could uh. 401 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 4: Not Ebra Flu's defensive coach. 402 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 1: He can, he can game plan for mix and I think, 403 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,160 Speaker 1: but hey, I hear you. I think it's it gets 404 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:21,639 Speaker 1: a little out of control and like you call it, 405 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,400 Speaker 1: you still call you still get me with it. Burrowhead, 406 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,440 Speaker 1: Joe Burrows had his number, had the number of the kids. 407 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 4: Of city chiefs. 408 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 3: All right, I got two more for it? 409 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 4: Someone though, I mean Jesus. 410 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: The after Sunday Night's recap, Tuesday's roundtable, this is like 411 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,439 Speaker 1: fire festival. Like you're still trying to sell advertisement on 412 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 1: Panthers Island. 413 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,160 Speaker 2: I'm back, I'm somehow back. You know the kid's book 414 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 2: if you give him ouse a cookie and then like 415 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:48,920 Speaker 2: eventually the mouse needs a glass of milk and this 416 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 2: keeps on going. 417 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 3: You and Simon told me on. 418 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 2: Tuesday, I think you still got like a toe on 419 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,879 Speaker 2: Panthers Island. Well I did, And if you give me 420 00:18:56,920 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 2: a toe on an island, guess what's gonna happen. Panthers 421 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 2: money line and the under thirty nine and a half 422 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:08,120 Speaker 2: on the same game parlay plus four ninety two home 423 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,159 Speaker 2: game against the Chargers. So the Chargers are not a 424 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 2: nine point favorite against the Panthers on a neutral field. 425 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 2: I'm sorry they're not. It doesn't make sense. They're not 426 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,360 Speaker 2: that much better than any team, even the Panthers. 427 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:20,679 Speaker 3: They're not. 428 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 2: I'm doing this on principle, so if the Panthers are 429 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 2: getting too many points, then you could just be. 430 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:29,320 Speaker 3: A coward and take the spread. 431 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 2: But I like big wins. So if they're gonna win 432 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 2: the game, how do they win? I don't really think 433 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 2: the Panthers are gonna put up like forty five on 434 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 2: the Chargers, right. I think if they win, if they 435 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 2: somehow do it. Because the line is bad here, maybe 436 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 2: it's because we just got an ugly, awful game. Harbaugh 437 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 2: just wanted to run, run, run, run run all game. 438 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,359 Speaker 2: Oh no fumble up the wrong moment, Oh big field 439 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:52,160 Speaker 2: goal by Carolina. 440 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:53,199 Speaker 3: I don't really know what happens. 441 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 2: Sports happens weird things happen if they win the game. 442 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 2: I think it's gotta be an ugly low scoring game. 443 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 2: So that's why I'm going to juice it further by 444 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 2: adding in the under. 445 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 3: Here. 446 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,400 Speaker 2: We've got some good trends on the under, the similar 447 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 2: ones to the Pittsburgh Denver one Week two low unders, 448 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:14,360 Speaker 2: windy unders. That fits the trend here. Week two underdogs 449 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:18,119 Speaker 2: off a double digit loss, sixty four percent against the spread. 450 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 2: Week two dogs of three to six off of an 451 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,600 Speaker 2: ATS loss seventy three percent against the spread. That's a 452 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,240 Speaker 2: Bengals trend as well. We're playing the number. I'm sorry, 453 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,160 Speaker 2: you have to have a short memory. As a better 454 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 2: we're doing it again. So that is a Panthers money 455 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:36,199 Speaker 2: line under same game parlay plus four ninety two. And 456 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 2: then the last one here, I'm throwing out everything I 457 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,120 Speaker 2: just said him going the other way. Dallas is home 458 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 2: New Orleans on the row, six and a half point underdog. 459 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:44,719 Speaker 3: The heck with it. 460 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 2: I'm taking Dallas, but not just the spread minus nineteen 461 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 2: and a half. Dallas win by twenty or more plus 462 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 2: four fifty. The trend says Saints. My analysis says Cowboys 463 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,400 Speaker 2: Saints bottom of five offensive line. You had fun against Carolina, 464 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 2: have fun against Micah Partins. Now have fun against the 465 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,280 Speaker 2: defense that can do some stuff. I think the Cowboys 466 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 2: are a little bit underrated. We dumped on them all 467 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 2: off season, and the Saints will never look this good 468 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 2: again as they do right now. We fade Dennis Allen 469 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 2: after a win. 470 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:13,440 Speaker 3: We backed Dak. 471 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:16,879 Speaker 2: We backed Mike McCarthy as home noon favorites. That's the spot. 472 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,320 Speaker 2: So if we like them, we should really like them. 473 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 2: Because Dallas just blew out Cleveland last week, and that's 474 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 2: what Dallas does. Last year in their eight home games, 475 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 2: they won six of the eight by twenty points. That's 476 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 2: why we chose this line. They had nine wins by 477 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 2: twenty or more last season. So if you like Dallas, 478 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 2: you should really like Dallas plus four fifty to win 479 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 2: by twenty or more. 480 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 4: I like it. I like it. 481 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 1: I was so happy you went to last year, and 482 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:46,359 Speaker 1: Dak's happy, CD's happy they got their guys paid, and 483 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:48,399 Speaker 1: the other one too with Carolina, and I'm sure we're 484 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 1: gonna hit on this throughout the year. You just got 485 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: embarrassed and now you're going back to your place, the Chargers. 486 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:56,919 Speaker 1: I think, like you said, earlier. Let's just get in 487 00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 1: and out get a win. Nice soft landing in the year. Raiders, 488 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 1: Panthers got to keep up with Kansas City. If you 489 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: want any hope for a division, get in, get out. 490 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:08,400 Speaker 4: They'll run the football. 491 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:10,199 Speaker 1: And I think the Panthers are going to want to 492 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,480 Speaker 1: protect their quarterback in terms of like protecting the pick, 493 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 1: protecting the Bryce Young scrutiny. So I think Dave knelis. 494 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 1: I mean, I might say he's on the hot seat, 495 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:21,440 Speaker 1: but protect your asset. 496 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 4: And maybe they're going to draft a quarterback. 497 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,480 Speaker 1: They probably will, but for now it's weak two. 498 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:27,720 Speaker 4: Okay, last one. 499 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:32,959 Speaker 1: It's another large spread, the largest on the slate, But 500 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 1: there's an angle here for Ravens and Raiders, and then 501 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,120 Speaker 1: we'll get to the look. 502 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 2: At Yeah, this one doesn't fit the theme here other 503 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 2: than that it's a long shot. But if the Ravens 504 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 2: beat the Raiders by a lot, what happens there We can't. 505 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,679 Speaker 2: I don't really want to play the Ravens big number here. 506 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:48,720 Speaker 2: I don't need that, but I think it's a great 507 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 2: spot for Derrick Henry. He had a quiet thirteen carries 508 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 2: forty six yards in the opener. Derrick Henry as much 509 00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 2: as anyone I've seen in my lifetime is a game 510 00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 2: script dependent player. If the Ravens are up by a lot, 511 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,760 Speaker 2: they're probably going to run Derrick Henry a lot. That's 512 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:03,440 Speaker 2: what the Titans did. We don't know if that's what. 513 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:04,160 Speaker 3: They will do here. 514 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 2: But here's the numbers. Derrick Henry for his career has 515 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 2: had one hundred yards and two rushing touchdowns. That's the 516 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:13,919 Speaker 2: bet we're gonna make here. Hundred yards and two rushing 517 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,640 Speaker 2: touchdowns is plus eight hundred. We want the same game parlay. 518 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,679 Speaker 2: He's done that eighteen times. Sixteen of the eighteen have 519 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 2: been in wins. So if you think the Ravens win here, 520 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 2: I certainly think they do against the Raiders at home, 521 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 2: the Raiders run to He got gashed by the Chargers 522 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 2: last week. Derrick Henry can certainly do a lot of gashing. 523 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 2: If we're isolating this to a win, we're playing a 524 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 2: proxy win here. Derrick Henry has had one hundred yards 525 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,880 Speaker 2: and two touchdowns and sixteen of sixty six wins lifetime. 526 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 2: That's almost one in four wins. Plus eight hundred is 527 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 2: eleven percent of plaid. We're getting double the implied here, 528 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,359 Speaker 2: so it's a long shot for a reason. But he 529 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,639 Speaker 2: scored a touchdown last week, even in a quiet game. 530 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:55,880 Speaker 2: He hit the two scores. You break a long run 531 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,120 Speaker 2: for maybe thirty forty yards. I think we can get there. 532 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,440 Speaker 2: So we're playing all these long shot half unit each. 533 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,359 Speaker 2: We got five here, we hit at least one. We're 534 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 2: in good shape. 535 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 3: We hit two. 536 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 2: We're coming out well ahead. That's the angle. Those are 537 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:09,959 Speaker 2: today's best bets. 538 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 1: Okay, look ahead to week three. 539 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 4: Let's look ahead. 540 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:16,920 Speaker 3: Just give it a shot. 541 00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 4: How about next week? 542 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 3: Ickut my sup? Yeah? 543 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 2: Avoid did this one jump out? I'm sure I will 544 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,719 Speaker 2: pick a faster look ahead all season. Chiefs minus three 545 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,000 Speaker 2: and a half at the Falcons. Sunday Night, Chiefs minus 546 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 2: three and a half at the Falcons. Do I even 547 00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 2: need to explain it? What are we doing with this line? 548 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 2: Atlanta is probably going to get blown out by Philly 549 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 2: and Monday night Kirk Cousins can't Move, can't pass, should 550 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 2: have had more receptions than he did. They're telegraphing the 551 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 2: run in the past with their formations. We've heard all 552 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,159 Speaker 2: about it all week long. It's primetime game. Kirk Cousins 553 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,120 Speaker 2: is three and ten straight up. Monday Night Football. They're 554 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,919 Speaker 2: giving us two Kirk primetime games in a row. I 555 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 2: don't know who asks for that, but maybe it was 556 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,800 Speaker 2: better is because I'll take the three and a half. Look, 557 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 2: I'm betting against the Chiefs here. We bet on the Bengal. 558 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 2: So should we wait? Could this drop below three? No, 559 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 2: they're not giving us below three Chiefs against the Falcons. 560 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:15,439 Speaker 2: They would get inundated with money. I think there's a 561 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,679 Speaker 2: better chance that this goes negatively for the Falcons and 562 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:20,840 Speaker 2: gets to like six or seven. So I'll take the 563 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 2: three and a half Chiefs at Falcons Sunday Night Football 564 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 2: next week? 565 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:24,919 Speaker 3: Quickly? 566 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 1: Would you play four and a half, because I've seen 567 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:27,439 Speaker 1: some four and a halfs. 568 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 2: I think if you need to try to get a 569 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 2: three and a half for four, that's kind of the 570 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 2: reason of the look ahead now. Otherwise maybe wait and 571 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 2: see what pops. But I think if you need to, 572 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:37,359 Speaker 2: I don't think the chief should have too. 573 00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 3: Much trouble here. 574 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 4: Okay, very good. 575 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 1: I mean, look, they might have some success because the 576 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 1: Eagles defense is kind of soft as puppy poop. But 577 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 1: the Chiefs front, like we saw with TJ. Watt and Pittsburgh. Oh, boy, 578 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,399 Speaker 1: Kirk better get like a wheelchair or something so we 579 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,360 Speaker 1: can move around out of the pocket. In and out 580 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,200 Speaker 1: of the pocket. There are your best bets. For week two, 581 00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,639 Speaker 1: we had the four best bets, and I know Brandon's 582 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,359 Speaker 1: counting them his best bets. But for the sake of 583 00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 1: the segments, the Lightning Round, the teaser theme, as well 584 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 1: as Derek Henry and your look Ahead, you had Seahawks 585 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,439 Speaker 1: going into Patriots this week and then for this for 586 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 1: week three, Chiefs minus three and a half at the Falcons. 587 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 1: That'll do it for our Action Network podcast, episode two 588 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,159 Speaker 1: of NFL Best Bets, Don't forget again. To download the 589 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:23,480 Speaker 1: free award winning Action Network app, find Brandon Anderson there 590 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 1: as well as our other NFL contributors. You can track 591 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 1: your own picks as well. Check out the Action Discord channel. 592 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,959 Speaker 1: Some of our analysts, including Nick Giffin, Sean Kerner, our 593 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 1: predictive analytics team, they hang out there as well. If 594 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,240 Speaker 1: you missed the six Pack with Raybond and Stuckey, that 595 00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,399 Speaker 1: episode is available now at the Action Network podcast as 596 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,639 Speaker 1: well as but Brandon teas during the episode today the 597 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 1: NFL Roundtable, It's myself, Brandon and Simon Hunter of the 598 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast. 599 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:51,879 Speaker 4: We're back next Friday morning. 600 00:26:51,920 --> 00:27:02,840 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, and best of luck here this weekend. 601 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:15,119 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 602 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,920 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 603 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,080 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler